Search results for: match outcome forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2955

Search results for: match outcome forecasting

2505 Analysis of the Outcome of the Treatment of Osteoradionecrosis in Patients after Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer

Authors: Petr Daniel Kovarik, Matt Kennedy, James Adams, Ajay Wilson, Andy Burns, Charles Kelly, Malcolm Jackson, Rahul Patil, Shahid Iqbal

Abstract:

Introduction: Osteoradionecrosis (ORN) is a recognised toxicity of radiotherapy (RT) for head and neck cancer (HNC). Existing literature lacks any generally accepted definition and staging system for this toxicity. Objective: The objective is to analyse the outcome of the surgical and nonsurgical treatments of ORN. Material and Method: Data on 2303 patients treated for HNC with radical or adjuvant RT or RT-chemotherapy from January 2010 - December 2021 were retrospectively analysed. Median follow-up to the whole group of patients was 37 months (range 0–148 months). Results: ORN developed in 185 patients (8.1%). The location of ORN was as follows; mandible=170, maxilla=10, and extra oral cavity=5. Multiple ORNs developed in 7 patients. 5 patients with extra oral cavity ORN were excluded from treatment analysis as the management is different. In 180 patients with oral cavity ORN, median follow-up was 59 months (range 5–148 months). ORN healed in 106 patients, treatment failed in 74 patients (improving=10, stable=43, and deteriorating=21). Median healing time was 14 months (range 3-86 months). Notani staging is available in 158 patients with jaw ORN with no previous surgery to the mandible (Notani class I=56, Notani class II=27, and Notani class III=76). 28 ORN (mandible=27, maxilla=1; Notani class I=23, Notani II=3, Notani III=1) healed spontaneously with a median healing time 7 months (range 3–46 months). In 20 patients, ORN developed after dental extraction, in 1 patient in the neomandible after radical surgery as a part of the primary treatment. In 7 patients, ORN developed and spontaneously healed in irradiated bone with no previous surgical/dental intervention. Radical resection of the ORN (segmentectomy, hemi-mandibulectomy with fibula flap) was performed in 43 patients (all mandible; Notani II=1, Notani III=39, Notani class was not established in 3 patients as ORN developed in the neomandible). 27 patients healed (63%); 15 patients failed (improving=2, stable=5, deteriorating=8). The median time from resection to healing was 6 months (range 2–30 months). 109 patients (mandible=100, maxilla=9; Notani I=3, Notani II=23, Notani III=35, Notani class was not established in 9 patients as ORN developed in the maxilla/neomandible) were treated conservatively using a combination of debridement, antibiotics and Pentoclo. 50 patients healed (46%) with a median healing time 14 months (range 3–70 months), 59 patients are recorded with persistent ORN (improving=8, stable=38, deteriorating=13). Out of 109 patients treated conservatively, 13 patients were treated with Pentoclo only (all mandible; Notani I=6, Notani II=3, Notani III=3, 1 patient with neomandible). In total, 8 patients healed (61.5%), treatment failed in 5 patients (stable=4, deteriorating=1). Median healing time was 14 months (range 4–24 months). Extra orally (n=5), 3 cases of ORN were in the auditory canal and 2 in mastoid. ORN healed in one patient (auditory canal after 32 months. Treatment failed in 4 patients (improving=3, stable=1). Conclusion: The outcome of the treatment of ORN remains in general, poor. Every effort should therefore be made to minimise the risk of development of this devastating toxicity.

Keywords: head and neck cancer, radiotherapy, osteoradionecrosis, treatment outcome

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2504 Course Outcomes to Programme Outcomes Mapping: A Methodology Based on Key Elements

Authors: Twarakavi Venkata Suresh Kumar, Sailaja Kumar, B. Eswara Reddy

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In a world of tremendous technical developments, effective and efficient higher education has always been a major challenge. The rising number of educational institutions have made it mandatory for healthy competitions among the institutions. To evaluate the qualitative competence of these educations institutions in engineering and technology and related disciplines, an efficient assessment technique in internal and external quality has to be followed. To achieve this, the curriculum is to be developed into courses, and each course has to be presented in the form teaching lesson plan consisting of topics and session outcome known as Course Outcomes (COs), that easily map into different Programme Outcomes (POs). The major objective of these methodologies is to provide quality technical education to its students. Detailed clear weightage in CO-PO mapping helps in proper measurable COs and to devise the POs attainment is an important issue. This ensures in assisting the achievement of the POs with proper weightage to POs, and also improves the successive curriculum development. In this paper, we presented a methodology for mapping CO and PO considering the key elements supported by each PO. This approach is useful in evaluating the attainment of POs which is based on the attainment of COs using the existing data from students' marks taken from various test items. Such direct assessment tools are used to measure the degree to which each student has achieved each course learning outcome by the completion of the course. Hence, these results are also useful in measuring the PO attainment for improving the programme vision and mission.

Keywords: attainment, course outcomes, programme outcomes, educational institutions

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2503 Alexa (Machine Learning) in Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Loulwah Bokhari, Jori Nazer, Hala Sultan

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Nowadays, artificial intelligence (AI) is used as a foundation for many activities in modern computing applications at home, in vehicles, and in businesses. Many modern machines are built to carry out a specific activity or purpose. This is where the Amazon Alexa application comes in, as it is used as a virtual assistant. The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of Amazon Alexa among people and how it has improved and made simple daily tasks easier for many people. We gave our participants several questions regarding Amazon Alexa and if they had recently used or heard of it, as well as the different tasks it provides and whether it successfully satisfied their needs. Overall, we found that participants who have recently used Alexa have found it to be helpful in their daily tasks.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, Echo system, machine learning, feature for feature match

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2502 Maternal and Neonatal Outcome Analysis in Preterm Abdominal Delivery Underwent Umbilical Cord Milking Compared to Early Cord Clamping

Authors: Herlangga Pramaditya, Agus Sulistyono, Risa Etika, Budiono Budiono, Alvin Saputra

Abstract:

Preterm birth and anemia of prematurity are the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in neonates, and anemia of the preterm neonates has become a major issue. The timing of umbilical cord clamping after a baby is born determines the amount of blood transferred from the placenta to fetus, Delayed Cord Clamping (DCC) has proven to prevent anemia in the neonates but it is constrained concern regarding the delayed in neonatal resuscitation. Umbilical Cord Milking (UCM) could be an alternative method for clamping the umbilical cord due to the active blood transfer from the placenta to the fetus. The aim of this study was to analyze the difference between maternal and neonatal outcome in preterm abdominal delivery who underwent UCM compared to ECC. This was an experimental study with randomized post-test only control design. Analyzed maternal and neonatal outcomes, significant P values (P <0.05). Statistical comparison was carried out using Paired Samples t-test (α two tailed 0,05). The result was the mean of preoperative mother’s hemoglobin in UCM group compared to ECC (10,9 + 0,9 g/dL vs 10,4 + 0,9 g/dL) and postoperative (11,1 + 1,1 g/dL vs 10,5 + 0,7 g/dL), the delta was (0,2 + 0,7 vs 0,1 + 0,6.). It showed no significant difference (P=0,395 vs 0,627). The mean of 3rd phase labor duration in UCM group vs ECC was (20,5 + 3,5 second vs 21,1 + 3,3 second), showed insignificant difference (P=0,634). The amount of bleeding after delivery in UCM group compared to ECC has the median of 190 cc (100-280cc) vs 210 cc (150-330 cc) showed insignificant difference (P=0,083) so the incidence of post-partum bleeding was not found. The mean of the neonates hemoglobin, hematocrit and erythrocytes of UCM group compared to ECC was (19,3 + 0,7 vs 15,9 + 0,8 g/dl), (57,1 + 3,6 % vs 47,2 + 2,8 %), and (5,4 + 0,4 g/dl vs 4,5 + 0,3 g/dl) showed significant difference (P<0,0001). There was no baby in UCM group received blood transfusion and one baby in the control ECC group received blood transfusion was found. Umbilical Cord Milking has shown to increase the baby’s blood component such as hemoglobin, hematocrit, and erythrocytes 6 hours after birth as well as lowering the incidence of blood transfusions. Maternal and neonatal morbidity were not found. Umbilical Cord Milking was the act of clamping the umbilical cord that was more beneficial to the baby and no adverse or negative effects on the mother.

Keywords: umbilical cord milking, early cord clamping, maternal and neonatal outcome, preterm, abdominal delivery

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2501 Exercise and Geriatric Depression: a Scoping Review of the Research Evidence

Authors: Samira Mehrabi

Abstract:

Geriatric depression is a common late-life mental health disorder that increases morbidity and mortality. It has been shown that exercise is effective in alleviating symptoms of geriatric depression. However, inconsistencies across studies and lack of optimal dose-response of exercise for improving geriatric depression have made it challenging to draw solid conclusions on the effectiveness of exercise in late-life depression. Purpose: To further investigate the moderators of the effectiveness of exercise on geriatric depression across the current body of evidence. Methods: Based on the Arksey and O’Malley framework, an extensive search strategy was performed by exploring PubMed, Scopus, Sport Discus, PsycInfo, ERIC, and IBSS without limitations in the time frame. Eight systematic reviews with empirical results that evaluated the effect of exercise on depression among people aged ≥ 60 years were identified and their individual studies were screened for inclusion. One additional study was found through the hand searching of reference lists. After full-text screening and applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 21 studies were retained for inclusion. Results: The review revealed high variability in characteristics of the exercise interventions and outcome measures. Sample characteristics, nature of comparators, main outcome assessment, and baseline severity of depression also varied notably. Mind-body and aerobic exercises were found to significantly reduce geriatric depression. However, results on the relationship between resistance training and improvements in geriatric depression were inconsistent, and results of the intensity-related antidepressant effects of exercise interventions were mixed. Extensive use of self-reported questionnaires for the main outcome assessment and lack of evidence on the relationship between depression severity and observed effects were of the other important highlights of the review. Conclusion: Several literature gaps were found regarding the potential effect modifiers of exercise and geriatric depression. While acknowledging the complexity of establishing recommendations on the exercise variables and geriatric depression, future studies are required to understand the interplay and threshold effect of exercise for treating geriatric depression.

Keywords: exercise, geriatric depression, healthy aging, older adults, physical activity intervention, scoping review

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2500 A Comparative Study of Optimization Techniques and Models to Forecasting Dengue Fever

Authors: Sudha T., Naveen C.

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Dengue is a serious public health issue that causes significant annual economic and welfare burdens on nations. However, enhanced optimization techniques and quantitative modeling approaches can predict the incidence of dengue. By advocating for a data-driven approach, public health officials can make informed decisions, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of sudden disease outbreak control efforts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are two of the U.S. Federal Government agencies from which this study uses environmental data. Based on environmental data that describe changes in temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and other factors known to affect dengue incidence, many predictive models are constructed that use different machine learning methods to estimate weekly dengue cases. The first step involves preparing the data, which includes handling outliers and missing values to make sure the data is prepared for subsequent processing and the creation of an accurate forecasting model. In the second phase, multiple feature selection procedures are applied using various machine learning models and optimization techniques. During the third phase of the research, machine learning models like the Huber Regressor, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Support Vector Regressor (SVR) are compared with several optimization techniques for feature selection, such as Harmony Search and Genetic Algorithm. In the fourth stage, the model's performance is evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as assistance. Selecting an optimization strategy with the least number of errors, lowest price, biggest productivity, or maximum potential results is the goal. In a variety of industries, including engineering, science, management, mathematics, finance, and medicine, optimization is widely employed. An effective optimization method based on harmony search and an integrated genetic algorithm is introduced for input feature selection, and it shows an important improvement in the model's predictive accuracy. The predictive models with Huber Regressor as the foundation perform the best for optimization and also prediction.

Keywords: deep learning model, dengue fever, prediction, optimization

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2499 Forecasting Regional Data Using Spatial Vars

Authors: Taisiia Gorshkova

Abstract:

Since the 1980s, spatial correlation models have been used more often to model regional indicators. An increasingly popular method for studying regional indicators is modeling taking into account spatial relationships between objects that are part of the same economic zone. In 2000s the new class of model – spatial vector autoregressions was developed. The main difference between standard and spatial vector autoregressions is that in the spatial VAR (SpVAR), the values of indicators at time t may depend on the values of explanatory variables at the same time t in neighboring regions and on the values of explanatory variables at time t-k in neighboring regions. Thus, VAR is a special case of SpVAR in the absence of spatial lags, and the spatial panel data model is a special case of spatial VAR in the absence of time lags. Two specifications of SpVAR were applied to Russian regional data for 2000-2017. The values of GRP and regional CPI are used as endogenous variables. The lags of GRP, CPI and the unemployment rate were used as explanatory variables. For comparison purposes, the standard VAR without spatial correlation was used as “naïve” model. In the first specification of SpVAR the unemployment rate and the values of depending variables, GRP and CPI, in neighboring regions at the same moment of time t were included in equations for GRP and CPI respectively. To account for the values of indicators in neighboring regions, the adjacency weight matrix is used, in which regions with a common sea or land border are assigned a value of 1, and the rest - 0. In the second specification the values of depending variables in neighboring regions at the moment of time t were replaced by these values in the previous time moment t-1. According to the results obtained, when inflation and GRP of neighbors are added into the model both inflation and GRP are significantly affected by their previous values, and inflation is also positively affected by an increase in unemployment in the previous period and negatively affected by an increase in GRP in the previous period, which corresponds to economic theory. GRP is not affected by either the inflation lag or the unemployment lag. When the model takes into account lagged values of GRP and inflation in neighboring regions, the results of inflation modeling are practically unchanged: all indicators except the unemployment lag are significant at a 5% significance level. For GRP, in turn, GRP lags in neighboring regions also become significant at a 5% significance level. For both spatial and “naïve” VARs the RMSE were calculated. The minimum RMSE are obtained via SpVAR with lagged explanatory variables. Thus, according to the results of the study, it can be concluded that SpVARs can accurately model both the actual values of macro indicators (particularly CPI and GRP) and the general situation in the regions

Keywords: forecasting, regional data, spatial econometrics, vector autoregression

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2498 Acoustic Performance and Application of Three Personalized Sound-Absorbing Materials

Authors: Fangying Wang, Zhang Sanming, Ni Qian

Abstract:

In recent years, more and more personalized sound absorbing materials have entered the Chinese room acoustical decoration market. The acoustic performance of three kinds of personalized sound-absorbing materials: Flame-retardant Flax Fiber Sound-absorbing Cotton, Eco-Friendly Sand Acoustic Panel and Transparent Micro-perforated Panel (Film) are tested by Reverberation Room Method. The sound absorption characteristic curves show that their performance match for or even exceed the traditional sound absorbing material. Through the application in the actual projects, these personalized sound-absorbing materials also proved their sound absorption ability and unique decorative effect.

Keywords: acoustic performance, application prospect personalized sound-absorbing materials

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2497 An Application of a Feedback Control System to Minimize Unforeseen Disruption in a Paper Manufacturing Industry in South Africa

Authors: Martha E. Ndeley

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Operation management is the key element within the manufacturing process. However, during this process, there are a number of unforeseen disruptions that causes the process to a standstill which are, machine breakdown, employees absenteeism, improper scheduling. When this happens, it forces the shop flow to a rescheduling process and these strategy reschedules only a limited part of the initial schedule to match up with the pre-schedule at some point with the objective to create a new schedule that is reliable which in the long run gets disrupted. In this work, we have developed feedback control system that minimizes any form of disruption before the impact becomes severe, the model was tested in a paper manufacturing industries and the results revealed that, if the disruption is minimized at the initial state, the impact becomes unnoticeable.

Keywords: disruption, machine, absenteeism, scheduling

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2496 Linguistic Cyberbullying, a Legislative Approach

Authors: Simona Maria Ignat

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Bullying online has been an increasing studied topic during the last years. Different approaches, psychological, linguistic, or computational, have been applied. To our best knowledge, a definition and a set of characteristics of phenomenon agreed internationally as a common framework are still waiting for answers. Thus, the objectives of this paper are the identification of bullying utterances on Twitter and their algorithms. This research paper is focused on the identification of words or groups of words, categorized as “utterances”, with bullying effect, from Twitter platform, extracted on a set of legislative criteria. This set is the result of analysis followed by synthesis of law documents on bullying(online) from United States of America, European Union, and Ireland. The outcome is a linguistic corpus with approximatively 10,000 entries. The methods applied to the first objective have been the following. The discourse analysis has been applied in identification of keywords with bullying effect in texts from Google search engine, Images link. Transcription and anonymization have been applied on texts grouped in CL1 (Corpus linguistics 1). The keywords search method and the legislative criteria have been used for identifying bullying utterances from Twitter. The texts with at least 30 representations on Twitter have been grouped. They form the second corpus linguistics, Bullying utterances from Twitter (CL2). The entries have been identified by using the legislative criteria on the the BoW method principle. The BoW is a method of extracting words or group of words with same meaning in any context. The methods applied for reaching the second objective is the conversion of parts of speech to alphabetical and numerical symbols and writing the bullying utterances as algorithms. The converted form of parts of speech has been chosen on the criterion of relevance within bullying message. The inductive reasoning approach has been applied in sampling and identifying the algorithms. The results are groups with interchangeable elements. The outcomes convey two aspects of bullying: the form and the content or meaning. The form conveys the intentional intimidation against somebody, expressed at the level of texts by grammatical and lexical marks. This outcome has applicability in the forensic linguistics for establishing the intentionality of an action. Another outcome of form is a complex of graphemic variations essential in detecting harmful texts online. This research enriches the lexicon already known on the topic. The second aspect, the content, revealed the topics like threat, harassment, assault, or suicide. They are subcategories of a broader harmful content which is a constant concern for task forces and legislators at national and international levels. These topic – outcomes of the dataset are a valuable source of detection. The analysis of content revealed algorithms and lexicons which could be applied to other harmful contents. A third outcome of content are the conveyances of Stylistics, which is a rich source of discourse analysis of social media platforms. In conclusion, this corpus linguistics is structured on legislative criteria and could be used in various fields.

Keywords: corpus linguistics, cyberbullying, legislation, natural language processing, twitter

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2495 Edward Said and the Dislocation of the Exiled Self

Authors: Majed Alobudi

Abstract:

Edward Said is considered among the most prominent figures in postcolonial theoretical studies and his work has largely influenced critical discussion for many decades. And in the globalized world of today where immigration and dislocation are intense and thoroughly discussed, Said`s views on these issues seem more relevant than ever. This paper will endeavor to bring together Said`s theoretical texts and other writings on immigration and exile in parallel. The aim is to try to find a better understanding of Said`s theories on dislocation and exile theoretically and personally. The combination of these two strands of narrative will eventually shed more light on self location in postcolonial theories and further the understanding of Said's theories and personal life narratives. The paper propose the difficulty dislocation poses in counter colonial narratives such as those written by Said. As an exile, the mission of defining the self and the other becomes obscure when place becomes impossible or prohibited. The clear result becomes a self which proclaims rather than inhabits reality, a treat Said criticized in colonial representation. The self becomes trapped between the worlds of distant reality of dislocation and the estranged world of exile. The outcome would reveal a more weakened attempt at defining the self and countering the postcolonial narrative. The reason for such confusion and contradiction is directly connected to place and dis-location. To summarize, the paper proposes to examine and investigate the implications exile and dislocation have inflected on Said as a prominent postcolonial figure and how that affects his theories and personal life. The outcome, it is argued, would be a vast and lasting effect which such colonial and postcolonial phenomenon have on personal and theoretical narratives written by Said.

Keywords: Edward Said, exile, postcolonialism, dislocation

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2494 Productivity and Household Welfare Impact of Technology Adoption: A Microeconometric Analysis

Authors: Tigist Mekonnen Melesse

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Since rural households are basically entitled to food through own production, improving productivity might lead to enhance the welfare of rural population through higher food availability at the household level and lowering the price of agricultural products. Increasing agricultural productivity through the use of improved technology is one of the desired outcomes from sensible food security and agricultural policy. The ultimate objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact of improved agricultural technology adoption on smallholders’ crop productivity and welfare. The study is conducted in Ethiopia covering 1500 rural households drawn from four regions and 15 rural villages based on data collected by Ethiopian Rural Household Survey. Endogenous treatment effect model is employed in order to account for the selection bias on adoption decision that is expected from the self-selection of households in technology adoption. The treatment indicator, technology adoption is a binary variable indicating whether the household used improved seeds and chemical fertilizer or not. The outcome variables were cereal crop productivity, measured in real value of production and welfare of households, measured in real per capita consumption expenditure. Results of the analysis indicate that there is positive and significant effect of improved technology use on rural households’ crop productivity and welfare in Ethiopia. Adoption of improved seeds and chemical fertilizer alone will increase the crop productivity by 7.38 and 6.32 percent per year of each. Adoption of such technologies is also found to improve households’ welfare by 1.17 and 0.25 percent per month of each. The combined effect of both technologies when adopted jointly is increasing crop productivity by 5.82 percent and improving welfare by 0.42 percent. Besides, educational level of household head, farm size, labor use, participation in extension program, expenditure for input and number of oxen positively affect crop productivity and household welfare, while large household size negatively affect welfare of households. In our estimation, the average treatment effect of technology adoption (average treatment effect on the treated, ATET) is the same as the average treatment effect (ATE). This implies that the average predicted outcome for the treatment group is similar to the average predicted outcome for the whole population.

Keywords: Endogenous treatment effect, technologies, productivity, welfare, Ethiopia

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2493 Preliminary WRF SFIRE Simulations over Croatia during the Split Wildfire in July 2017

Authors: Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Višnjica Vučetić, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Barbara Malečić

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The Split wildfire on the mid-Adriatic Coast in July 2017 is one of the most severe wildfires in Croatian history, given the size and unexpected fire behavior, and it is used in this research as a case study to run the Weather Research and Forecasting Spread Fire (WRF SFIRE) model. This coupled fire-atmosphere model was successfully run for the first time ever for one Croatian wildfire case. Verification of coupled simulations was possible by using the detailed reconstruction of the Split wildfire. Specifically, precise information on ignition time and location, together with mapped fire progressions and spotting within the first 30 hours of the wildfire, was used for both – to initialize simulations and to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate fire’s propagation and final fire scar. The preliminary simulations were obtained using high-resolution vegetation and topography data for the fire area, additionally interpolated to fire grid spacing at 33.3 m. The results demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the ability to work with real data from Croatia and produce adequate results for forecasting fire spread. As the model in its setup has the ability to include and exclude the energy fluxes between the fire and the atmosphere, this was used to investigate possible fire-atmosphere interactions during the Split wildfire. Finally, successfully coupled simulations provided the first numerical evidence that a wildfire from the Adriatic coast region can modify the dynamical structure of the surrounding atmosphere, which agrees with observations from fire grounds. This study has demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the potential for operational application in Croatia with more accurate fire predictions in the future, which could be accomplished by inserting the higher-resolution input data into the model without interpolation. Possible uses for fire management in Croatia include prediction of fire spread and intensity that may vary under changing weather conditions, available fuels and topography, planning effective and safe deployment of ground and aerial firefighting forces, preventing wildland-urban interface fires, effective planning of evacuation routes etc. In addition, the WRF SFIRE model results from this research demonstrated that the model is important for fire weather research and education purposes in order to better understand this hazardous phenomenon that occurs in Croatia.

Keywords: meteorology, agrometeorology, fire weather, wildfires, couple fire-atmosphere model

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2492 Artificial Intelligence Ethics: What Business Leaders Need to Consider for the Future

Authors: Kylie Leonard

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Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) can be an attractive opportunity for business leaders as there are many easy-to-see benefits. These benefits include task completion rates, overall cost, and better forecasting. Business leaders are often unaware of the challenges that can accompany AI, such as data center costs, access to data, employee acceptance, and privacy concerns. In addition to the benefits and challenges of AI, it is important to practice AI ethics to ensure the safe creation of AI. AI ethics include aspects of algorithm bias, limits in transparency, and surveillance. To be a good business leader, it is critical to address all the considerations involving the challenges of AI and AI ethics.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence ethics, business leaders, business concerns

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2491 A Cohort and Empirical Based Multivariate Mortality Model

Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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2490 Magnitude and Outcome of Resuscitation Activities at Rwanda Military Hospital for the Period of April 2013-September 2013

Authors: Auni Idi Muhire

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Background: Prior to April 2012, resuscitations were often ineffective resulting in poor patient outcomes. An initiative was implemented at Rwanda Military Hospital (RMH) to review root causes and plan strategies to improve patient outcomes. An interdisciplinary committee was developed to review this problem. Purpose: Analyze the frequency, obstacles, and outcome of patient resuscitation following cardiac and/or respiratory arrest. Methods: A form was developed to allow recording of all actions taken during resuscitation including response times, staff present, and equipment and medications used. Results:-The patient population requiring the most resuscitation effort are the intensive care patients, most frequently the neonatal the intensive care patients (42.8%) -Despite having trained staff representatives, not all resuscitations follow protocol -Lack of compliance with drug administration guidelines was noted, particularly in initiating use of drugs despite the drug being available (59%). Lesson Learned: Basic Life Support training for interdisciplinary staff resulted in more effective response to cardiac and/or respiratory arrest at RMH. Obstacles to effective resuscitation included number of staff, knowledge and skill level of staff, availability of appropriate equipment and medications, staff communication, and patient Do not Attempt Resuscitation (DNR) status.

Keywords: resuscitation, case analysis of knowledge versus practice, intensive care, critical care

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2489 A Clinical Study on the Versatility of Lateral Supra Malleolar Flap in Lower Limb Wound Reconstruction

Authors: Animesh Gupta

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Objective: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the versatility and outcome of lateral supra malleolar flap (LSMF) in soft tissue reconstruction of the regions including the distal leg, ankle, dorsal foot and heel. Methods: From March 2021 to April 2023, 18 patients with soft tissue defects in the regions, including the distal leg, ankle, dorsal foot and heel, who underwent LSMF repair for lower limb wound reconstruction were analyzed. The location, size of the defects, etiology, outcome, complications, and other alternative options were studied and presented. Results: The follow-up period of the cases was 3-6 months after surgery. All flaps were successful; however, one flap was complicated by venous congestion and was managed by loosening a few sutures and the patient was required to elevate the affected limb to resolve the issue. Conclusion: The LSMF has numerous advantages in repairing soft tissue defects in areas involving the ankle, distal leg, heel and dorsum of the foot. In comparison to reverse sural flaps for repairing defects in the heel and lower leg, LSMF offers shorter operation time, shorter hospitalization, lower cost, and fewer postoperative complications.

Keywords: lateral supra malleolar flap, LSMF, soft tissue reconstruction, lower leg defect

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2488 High Motivational Salient Face Distractors Slowed Target Detection: Evidence from Behavioral Studies

Authors: Rashmi Gupta

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Rewarding stimuli capture attention involuntarily as a result of an association process that develops quickly during value learning, referred to as the reward or value-driven attentional capture. It is essential to compare reward with punishment processing to get a full picture of value-based modulation in visual attention processing. Hence, the present study manipulated both valence/value (reward as well as punishment) and motivational salience (probability of an outcome: high vs. low) together. Series of experiments were conducted, and there were two phases in each experiment. In phase 1, participants were required to learn to associate specific face stimuli with a high or low probability of winning or losing points. In the second phase, these conditioned stimuli then served as a distractor or prime in a speeded letter search task. Faces with high versus low outcome probability, regardless of valence, slowed the search for targets (specifically the left visual field target) and suggesting that the costs to performance on non-emotional cognitive tasks were only driven by motivational salience (high vs. loss) associated with the stimuli rather than the valence (gain vs. loss). It also suggests that the processing of motivationally salient stimuli is right-hemisphere biased. Together, results of these studies strengthen the notion that our visual attention system is more sensitive to affected by motivational saliency rather than valence, which termed here as motivational-driven attentional capture.

Keywords: attention, distractors, motivational salience, valence

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2487 Choking among Babies, Toddlers and Children with Special Needs: A Review of Mechanisms, Implications, Incidence, and Recommendations of Professional Prevention Guidelines

Authors: Ella Abaev, Shany Segal, Miri Gabay

Abstract:

Background: Choking is a blockage of airways that prevents efficient breathing and air flow to the lungs. Choking may be partial or full and is an emergency situation. Complete or prolonged choking leads to apnea, lack of oxygen in the tissues of the body and brain, and can cause death. There are three mechanisms of choking: obstruction of internal respiratory tracts by food or object aspiration, any material that blocks or covers external air passages, external pressure on the neck or trapping between objects. Children's airways are narrower than that of adults and therefore the risk of choking is greater, due to the aspiration of food and other foreign bodies into the lungs. In the Child Development Center at Safra Children’s Hospital, Tel Hashomer in Israel are treated infants, toddlers, and children aged 0-18 years with various developmental disabilities. Due to the increase in reports of ‘almost an event’ of choking in the past year and the serious consequences of choking event, it was decided to give an emphasis to the issue. Incidence and methods: The number of reports of ‘almost an event’ or a choking event was examined at the center during the years 2013-2018 and a thorough research work was conducted on the subject in order to build a prevention program. Findings: Between 2013 and 2018 the center reported about ten cases of ‘almost choking events’. In the middle of 2018 alone three cases of ‘almost an event’ were reported. Objective: Providing knowledge leads to awareness raise, change of perception, change in behavior and prevention. The center employs more than 130 staff members from various sectors so that it is the work of multi-professional teams to promote the quality and safety of the treatment. The familiarity of the staff with risk factors, prevention guidelines, identification of choking signs, and treatment are most important and significant in determining the outcome of a choking event. Conclusions and recommendations: After in-depth research work was carried out in cooperation with the Risk Management Unit on the subject of choking, which include a description of the definitions, mechanisms, risk factors, treatment methods and extensive recommendations for prevention (e.g. using treatment and stimulation accessories with standards association stamps and adjustment of the type of food and the way it is served to match to the child's age and the ability to swallow). The expected stages of development and emphasis on the population of children with special needs were taken into account. The research findings will be published by the staff and parents of the patients, professional publications, and lectures and there is an expectation to decrease the number of choking events in the next years.

Keywords: children with special needs, choking, educational system, prevention guidelines

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2486 The Risk of Ground Movements After Digging Two Parallel Vertical Tunnel in Urban

Authors: Djelloul Chafia, Demagh Rafik, Kareche Toufik

Abstract:

Human activities, made without precautions, accelerate the degradation of the soil structure and reduces its resistance. Operations, such as tunnel construction may exercise an influence more or less permanent on the grounds which surrounded them, these structures alter soil it is necessary to predict their impacts by suitable measures. This research is a numerical analysis that deals the risks and effects due to the weakening of the soil after digging two parallel vertical circular tunnels in urban areas, and suggests forecasting techniques based essentially on the organization of underground space. The simulations are performed using the finite-difference code FLAC in a two-dimensional case and with an elasto-plastic behavior of the soil.

Keywords: sol, weakening, degradation, prevention, tunnel

Procedia PDF Downloads 557
2485 Serum Granulocyte Colony Stimulating Factor is a Potent Stimulator of Hematopoeitic Progenitor Cells Mobilization in Trauma Hemorrhagic Shock

Authors: Manoj Kumar, Sujata Mohanty, D. N. Rao, Arul Selvi, Sanjeev K. Bhoi

Abstract:

Background: Hematopoietic progenitor cells (HPC) mobilized from bone marrow to peripheral blood has been observed in severe trauma and hemorrhagic shock patients. Granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) is a potent stimulator that mobilized HPC from bone marrow to peripheral blood. Objective: Our aim of the study was to investigate the serum G-CSF levels and correlate with HPC and outcome. Methods: Peripheral blood sample from 50 hemorrhagic shock patients was collected on arrival for determination of G-CSF and peripheral blood HPC (PBHPC) and compared with healthy control (n=15). Determination of serum levels of G-CSF by sandwich ELISA and PBHPC by Sysmex XE-2100. Data were categorized by age, sex, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and laboratory data was prospectively collected. Data are expressed as mean±SD and median (min, max). Results: Significantly increased the serum level of G-CSF (264.8 vs. 79.1 pg/ml) and peripheral blood HPC (0.1 vs. 0.01 %) in the T/HS patients when compared with control group. Conclusions: Our studies suggest serum G-CSF elevated in T/HS patients. The elevated in G-CSF was also associated with mobilization of HPC from BM to peripheral blood HPC. Increased the levels of G-CSF in T/HS may play a significant role in the alteration of the hematopoietic compartment.

Keywords: granulocyte colony stimulating factor, G-CSF, hematopoietic progenitor cells, HPC, trauma hemorrhagic shock, T/HS, outcome

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2484 Perceived and Projected Images of Algeria: A Comparison Study

Authors: Nour-Elhouda Lecheheb

Abstract:

Destination image is one of the main factors that influence potential visitors' decision choice. This study aims to explore the pre-visit perception of prior British tourists and compare them to the actual projected images of the Algerian tourism suppliers. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with both prior British tourists to Algeria and the Algerian tourism suppliers in 2019. The findings of this study suggest how the Algerian tourism suppliers might benefit from understanding the perceived image of prior tourists to match tourists' expectations and better plan their projected images.

Keywords: Algeria, destination choice, destination image, perceived image, projected image

Procedia PDF Downloads 166
2483 The Development of a Supplementary Course in the Social Studies, Religion and Culture Learning Area in Support of ASEAN Community and for Use in the Northeastern Border Area of Thailand

Authors: Angkana Tungkasamit, Ladda Silanoi , Teerachai Nethanomsak, Sitthipon Art-in, Siribhong Bhiasiri

Abstract:

As the date for the commencement of the ASEAN Community in Year 2015 is approaching, it has become apparent to all that there is an urgent need to get Thai people ready to meet the challenge of entering into the Community confidently. Our research team has been organized by the Faculty of Education, Khon Kaen University with the task of training administrators and teachers of the schools along the borders with Laos People’s Democratic Republic and the Kingdom of Cambodia to be able to develop supplementary courses on ASEAN Community. The course to be developed is based on the essential elements of the Community, i.e. general backgrounds of the member countries, the education, social and economic life in the Community and social skills needed for a good citizen of the ASEAN Community. The study, based on learning outcome and learning management process as a basis for inquiry, was a research and development in nature using participative action research as a means to achieve the goal of helping school administrators and teachers to learn how to develop supplementary courses to be used in their schools. A post-workshop evaluation of the outcome was made and found that, besides the successfully completed supplementary course, the participants were satisfied with their participation in the workshop because they had participated in every step of the development activity, from the beginning to the end.

Keywords: development of supplementary course, ASEAN community, social studies, northeastern border area of Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 354
2482 Casusation and Criminal Responsibility

Authors: László Schmidt

Abstract:

“Post hoc ergo propter hoc” means after it, therefore because of it. In other words: If event Y followed event X, then event Y must have been caused by event X. The question of causation has long been a central theme in philosophical thought, and many different theories have been put forward. However, causality is an essentially contested concept (ECC), as it has no universally accepted definition and is used differently in everyday, scientific, and legal thinking. In the field of law, the question of causality arises mainly in the context of establishing legal liability: in criminal law and in the rules of civil law on liability for damages arising either from breach of contract or from tort. In the study some philosophical theories of causality will be presented and how these theories correlate with legal causality. It’s quite interesting when philosophical abstractions meet the pragmatic demands of jurisprudence. In Hungarian criminal judicial practice the principle of equivalence of conditions is the generally accepted and applicable standard of causation, where all necessary conditions are considered equivalent and thus a cause. The idea is that without the trigger, the subsequent outcome would not have occurred; all the conditions that led to the subsequent outcome are equivalent. In the case where the trigger that led to the result is accompanied by an additional intervening cause, including an accidental one, independent of the perpetrator, the causal link is not broken, but at most the causal link becomes looser. The importance of the intervening causes in the outcome should be given due weight in the imposition of the sentence. According to court practice if the conduct of the offender sets in motion the causal process which led to the result, it does not exclude his criminal liability and does not interrupt the causal process if other factors, such as the victim's illness, may have contributed to it. The concausa does not break the chain of causation, i.e. the existence of a causal link establish the criminal liability of the offender. Courts also adjudicates that if an act is a cause of the result if the act cannot be omitted without the result being omitted. This essentially assumes a hypothetical elimination procedure, i.e. the act must be omitted in thought and then examined to see whether the result would still occur or whether it would be omitted. On the substantive side, the essential condition for establishing the offence is that the result must be demonstrably connected with the activity committed. The provision on the assessment of the facts beyond reasonable doubt must also apply to the causal link: that is to say, the uncertainty of the causal link between the conduct and the result of the offence precludes the perpetrator from being held liable for the result. Sometimes, however, the courts do not specify in the reasons for their judgments what standard of causation they apply, i.e. on what basis they establish the existence of (legal) causation.

Keywords: causation, Hungarian criminal law, responsibility, philosophy of law

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2481 The Preliminary Study of the Possible Relationship between Urban Open Space System and Residents' Health Outcome

Authors: Jia-Jin He, Tzu-Yuan Stessa Chao

Abstract:

It is generally accepted that community residents with abundant open space have better health status on average, and thus more and more cities around the world began their pursuit of the greatest possible amount of green space within urban areas through urban planning approach. Nevertheless, only a few studies managed to provide empirical evidence regarding the actual relationship between 'providing' green space and 'improving' human health at city level. There is also lack of evidence of direct positive improvement of health by increasing the amount of green space. For urban planning professional, it is important to understand citizens’ usage behaviour towards green space as a critical evidence for future planning and design strategies. There is a research need to further investigate the amount of green space, user behaviour of green spaces and the health outcome of urban dwellers. To this end, we would like to find out other important factors for urban dwellers’ usage behaviours of green spaces. 'Average green spaces per person' is one of the National well-being Indicators in Taiwan as in many other countries. Through our preliminary research, we collected and analyzed the official data of planned open space coverages, average life expectancy, exercise frequency and obesity ratio in all cities of Taiwan. The study result indicates an interesting finding that Kaohsiung city, the second largest city in Taiwan, tells a completely different story. Citizens in Kaosiung city have more open spaces than any other city through urban planning, yet have relatively unhealthy condition in contrary. Whether it pointed out that the amount of the open spaces per person has would not direct to the health outcome. Therefore, the pre-established view which states that open spaces must have positive effects on human health should be examined more prudently. Hence, this paper intends to explore the relationship between user behaviour of open spaces and citizens’ health conditions by critically analyzing past related literature and collecting selective data from government health database in 2015. We also take Kaohsiung city, as a case study area to conduct statistical analysis first followed by questionnaire survey to gain a better understanding. Finally, we aim to feedback our findings to the current planning system in Taiwan for better health promotion urbanized areas.

Keywords: open spaces, urban planning systems, healthy cities, health outcomes

Procedia PDF Downloads 165
2480 The MTHFR C677T Polymorphism Screening: A Challenge in Recurrent Pregnancy Loss

Authors: Rim Frikha, Nouha Bouayed, Afifa Sellami, Nozha Chakroun, Salima Daoud, Leila Keskes, Tarek Rebai

Abstract:

Introduction: Recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) defined as two or more pregnancy losses, is a serious clinical problem. Methylene-tetrahydro-folate-reductase (MTHFR) polymorphisms, commonly the variant C677T is recognized as an inherited thrombophilia which might affect embryonic development and pregnancy success and cause pregnancy complications as RPL. Material and Methods DNA was extracted from peripheral blood samples and PCR-RFLP was performed for the molecular diagnosis of the C677T MTHFR polymorphism among 70 patients (35 couples) with more than 2 fetal losses. Aims and Objective: The aim of this study is to determine the frequency of MTHFR C677T among Tunisian couples with RPL and to critically analyze the available literature on the importance of MTHFR polymorphism testing in the management of RPL. Result and comments: No C677T mutation was detected in the carriers of RPL. This result would be related to sample size and to different criteria (number of abortion), - The association between MTHFR polymorphisms and pregnancy complications has been reported but with controversial results. - A lack of evidence for MTHFR polymorphism testing previously recommended by ACMG (American College of Medical medicine). Our study highlights the importance of screening of MTHFR polymorphism since the real impact of such thrombotic molecular defect on the pregnancy outcome is evident. - Folic supplementation of these patients during pregnancy can prevent such complications and lead to a successful pregnancy outcome.

Keywords: methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase, C677T, recurrent pregnancy loss, genetic testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 306
2479 Temporal Case-Based Reasoning System for Automatic Parking Complex

Authors: Alexander P. Eremeev, Ivan E. Kurilenko, Pavel R. Varshavskiy

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of the application of temporal reasoning and case-based reasoning in intelligent decision support systems is considered. The method of case-based reasoning with temporal dependences for the solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is described. This paper demonstrates how the temporal case-based reasoning system can be used in intelligent decision support systems of the car access control. This work was supported by RFBR.

Keywords: analogous reasoning, case-based reasoning, intelligent decision support systems, temporal reasoning

Procedia PDF Downloads 529
2478 Ternary Content Addressable Memory Cell with a Leakage Reduction Technique

Authors: Gagnesh Kumar, Nitin Gupta

Abstract:

Ternary Content Addressable Memory cells are mainly popular in network routers for packet forwarding and packet classification, but they are also useful in a variety of other applications that require high-speed table look-up. The main TCAM-design challenge is to decrease the power consumption associated with the large amount of parallel active circuitry, without compromising with speed or memory density. Furthermore, when the channel length decreases, leakage power becomes more significant, and it can even dominate dynamic power at lower technologies. In this paper, we propose a TCAM-design technique, called Virtual Power Supply technique that reduces the leakage by a substantial amount.

Keywords: match line (ML), search line (SL), ternary content addressable memory (TCAM), Leakage power (LP)

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
2477 Application of Neuroscience in Aligning Instructional Design to Student Learning Style

Authors: Jayati Bhattacharjee

Abstract:

Teaching is a very dynamic profession. Teaching Science is as much challenging as Learning the subject if not more. For instance teaching of Chemistry. From the introductory concepts of subatomic particles to atoms of elements and their symbols and further presenting the chemical equation and so forth is a challenge on both side of the equation Teaching Learning. This paper combines the Neuroscience of Learning and memory with the knowledge of Learning style (VAK) and presents an effective tool for the teacher to authenticate Learning. The model of ‘Working Memory’, the Visio-spatial sketchpad, the central executive and the phonological loop that transforms short-term memory to long term memory actually supports the psychological theory of Learning style i.e. Visual –Auditory-Kinesthetic. A closer examination of David Kolbe’s learning model suggests that learning requires abilities that are polar opposites, and that the learner must continually choose which set of learning abilities he or she will use in a specific learning situation. In grasping experience some of us perceive new information through experiencing the concrete, tangible, felt qualities of the world, relying on our senses and immersing ourselves in concrete reality. Others tend to perceive, grasp, or take hold of new information through symbolic representation or abstract conceptualization – thinking about, analyzing, or systematically planning, rather than using sensation as a guide. Similarly, in transforming or processing experience some of us tend to carefully watch others who are involved in the experience and reflect on what happens, while others choose to jump right in and start doing things. The watchers favor reflective observation, while the doers favor active experimentation. Any lesson plan based on the model of Prescriptive design: C+O=M (C: Instructional condition; O: Instructional Outcome; M: Instructional method). The desired outcome and conditions are independent variables whereas the instructional method is dependent hence can be planned and suited to maximize the learning outcome. The assessment for learning rather than of learning can encourage, build confidence and hope amongst the learners and go a long way to replace the anxiety and hopelessness that a student experiences while learning Science with a human touch in it. Application of this model has been tried in teaching chemistry to high school students as well as in workshops with teachers. The response received has proven the desirable results.

Keywords: working memory model, learning style, prescriptive design, assessment for learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 351
2476 A Radiographic Superimposition in Orthognathic Surgery of Class III Skeletal Malocclusion

Authors: Albert Suryaprawira

Abstract:

Patients requiring correction of severe Class III skeletal discrepancy historically has been among the most challenging treatments for orthodontists. Correction of an aesthetic and functional problem is crucially important. This is a case report of an adult male aged 18 years who complained of difficulty in chewing and speaking. Patient has a prominent profile with mandibular excess. The pre-treatment cephalometric radiograph was taken to analyse the skeletal problem and to measure the amount of bone movement and the prediction soft tissue response. The panoramic radiograph was also taken to analyse bone quality, bone abnormality, third molar impaction, etc. Before the surgery, the pre-surgical cephalometric radiograph was taken to re-evaluate the plan and to settle the final amount of bone cut. After the surgery, the post-surgical cephalometric radiograph was taken to confirm the result with the plan. The superimposition between those radiographs was performed to analyse the outcome. It includes the superimposition of the cranial base, maxilla, and mandible. Superimposition is important to describe the amount of hard and soft tissue movement. It is also important to predict the possibility of relapse after the surgery. The patient needs to understand all the surgical plan, outcome and relapse prevention. The surgery included mandibular set back by bilateral sagittal split osteotomies. Although the discrepancy was severe using this combination of treatment and the use of radiographic superimposition, an aesthetically pleasing and stable result was achieved.

Keywords: cephalometric, mandibular set back, orthognathic, superimposition

Procedia PDF Downloads 258