Search results for: generalized extreme value distribution

Authors: Brandon Foggo, Nanpeng Yu

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Power distribution circuits undergo frequent network topology changes that are often left undocumented. As a result, the documentation of a circuit’s connectivity becomes inaccurate with time. The lack of reliable circuit connectivity information is one of the biggest obstacles to model, monitor, and control modern distribution systems. To enhance the reliability and efficiency of electric power distribution systems, the circuit’s connectivity information must be updated periodically. This paper focuses on one critical component of a distribution circuit’s topology - the secondary transformer to phase association. This topology component describes the set of phase lines that feed power to a given secondary transformer (and therefore a given group of power consumers). Finding the documentation of this component is call Phase Identification, and is typically performed with physical measurements. These measurements can take time lengths on the order of several months, but with supervised learning, the time length can be reduced significantly. This paper compares several such methods applied to Phase Identification for a large range of real distribution circuits, describes a method of training data selection, describes preprocessing steps unique to the Phase Identification problem, and ultimately describes a method which obtains high accuracy (> 96% in most cases, > 92% in the worst case) using only 5% of the measurements typically used for Phase Identification.

Keywords: distribution network, machine learning, network topology, phase identification, smart grid

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Authors: Ana Staneva, Vessela Stoimenova

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A parametric estimation of the MBP with Power Series offspring distribution family is considered in this paper. The MLE for the parameters is obtained in the case when the observable data are incomplete and consist only with the generation sizes of the family tree of MBP. The parameter estimation is calculated by using the Monte Carlo EM algorithm. The estimation for the posterior distribution and for the offspring distribution parameters are calculated by using the Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampler. The article proposes various examples with bivariate branching processes together with computational results, simulation and an implementation using R.

Keywords: Bayesian, branching processes, EM algorithm, Gibbs sampler, Monte Carlo methods, statistical estimation

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Authors: Mohamed K. Metwally, Sherif H. El-Gohary, Kyung Min Byun, Seung Moo Han, Soo Yeol Lee, Min Hyoung Cho, Gon Khang, Jinsung Cho, Tae-Seong Kim

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Photoacoustic imaging (PAI) is a non-invasive and non-ionizing imaging modality that combines the absorption contrast of light with ultrasound resolution. Laser is used to deposit optical energy into a target (i.e., optical fluence). Consequently, the target temperature rises, and then thermal expansion occurs that leads to generating a PA signal. In general, most image reconstruction algorithms for PAI assume uniform fluence within an imaging object. However, it is known that optical fluence distribution within the object is non-uniform. This could affect the reconstruction of PA images. In this study, we have investigated the influence of optical fluence distribution on PA back-propagation imaging using finite element method. The uniform fluence was simulated as a triangular waveform within the object of interest. The non-uniform fluence distribution was estimated by solving light propagation within a tissue model via Monte Carlo method. The results show that the PA signal in the case of non-uniform fluence is wider than the uniform case by 23%. The frequency spectrum of the PA signal due to the non-uniform fluence has missed some high frequency components in comparison to the uniform case. Consequently, the reconstructed image with the non-uniform fluence exhibits a strong smoothing effect.

Keywords: finite element method, fluence distribution, Monte Carlo method, photoacoustic imaging

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Authors: Golnaz Shahtahmassebi, Jose Maria Sarabia

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In this talk, we introduce a new class of conjugate prior distributions obtained from conditional specification methodology. We illustrate the application of such distribution in Bayesian change point detection in Poisson processes. We obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters using a general bivariate distribution with gamma conditionals. Simulation from the posterior is readily implemented using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. The Gibbs sampling is implemented even when using conditional densities that are incompatible or only compatible with an improper joint density. The application of such methods will be demonstrated using examples of simulated and real data.

Keywords: change point, bayesian inference, Gibbs sampler, conditional specification, gamma conditional distributions

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Authors: Hassan Saghi, Gholam Reza Askarzadeh Garmroud, Seyyed Ali Reza Emamian

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Sloshing phenomenon is a complicated free surface flow problem that increases the dynamic pressure on the sidewalls and the bottom of the storage tanks. When the storage tanks are partially filled, it is essential to be able to evaluate the fluid dynamic loads on the tank’s perimeter. In this paper, a numerical code was developed to determine the pressure distribution on the rectangular and trapezoidal storage tanks’ perimeters due to liquid sloshing impact. Assuming the fluid to be inviscid, the Laplace equation and the nonlinear free surface boundary conditions are solved using coupled BEM-FEM. The code performance for sloshing modeling is validated against available data. Finally, this code is used for partially filled rectangular and trapezoidal storage tanks and the pressure distribution on the tanks’ perimeters due to liquid sloshing impact is estimated. The results show that the maximum pressure on the perimeter of the rectangular and trapezoidal storage tanks was decreased along the sidewalls from the top to the bottom. Furthermore, the period of the pressure distribution is different for different points on the tank’s perimeter and it is bigger in the trapezoidal tanks compared to the rectangular ones.

Keywords: pressure distribution, liquid sloshing impact, sway motion, trapezoidal storage tank, coupled BEM-FEM

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Authors: Jamal A. Hassan, Ali Q. Abdulrazzaq, Sadiq J. Abass

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In this study, both the photoelastic, as well as the finite element methods, are used to study the stress distribution within human vertebra (L4) under forces similar to those that occur during normal life. Two & three dimensional models of vertebra were created by the software AutoCAD. The coordinates obtained were fed into a computer numerical control (CNC) tensile machine to fabricate the models from photoelastic sheets. Completed models were placed in a transmission polariscope and loaded with static force (up to 1500N). Stresses can be quantified and localized by counting the number of fringes. In both methods the Principle stresses were calculated at different regions. The results noticed that the maximum von-mises stress on the area of the extreme superior vertebral body surface and the facet surface with high normal stress (σ) and shear stress (τ). The facets and other posterior elements have a load-bearing function to help support the weight of the upper body and anything that it carries, and are also acted upon by spinal muscle forces. The numerical FE results have been compared with the experimental method using photoelasticity which shows good agreement between experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: photoelasticity, stress, load, finite element

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Authors: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

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This article considers the problem of evaluating infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability under a given compound Poisson surplus process by approximating the claim size distribution by a finite mixture exponential, say Hyperexponential, distribution. It restates the infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability as a solvable ordinary differential equation (or a partial differential equation). Application of our findings has been given through a simulation study.

Keywords: ruin probability, compound poisson processes, mixture exponential (hyperexponential) distribution, heavy-tailed distributions

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Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

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Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf=bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf=diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution

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Authors: Maryam Saeidi, Ehsan Motamedian, Seyed Abbas Shojaosadati

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Zymomonas mobilis is known as an example of the uncoupled growth phenomenon. This microorganism also has a unique metabolism that degrades glucose by the Entner–Doudoroff (ED) pathway. In this paper, a genome-scale metabolic model including 434 genes, 757 reactions and 691 metabolites was reconstructed to simulate uncoupled growth and study its effect on flux distribution in the central metabolism. The model properly predicted that ATPase was activated in experimental growth yields of Z. mobilis. Flux distribution obtained from model indicates that the major carbon flux passed through ED pathway that resulted in the production of ethanol. Small amounts of carbon source were entered into pentose phosphate pathway and TCA cycle to produce biomass precursors. Predicted flux distribution was in good agreement with experimental data. The model results also indicated that Z. mobilis metabolism is able to produce biomass with maximum growth yield of 123.7 g (mol glucose)-1 if ATP synthase is coupled with growth and produces 82 mmol ATP gDCW-1h-1. Coupling the growth and energy reduced ethanol secretion and changed the flux distribution to produce biomass precursors.

Keywords: genome-scale metabolic model, Zymomonas mobilis, uncoupled growth, flux distribution, ATP dissipation

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Authors: Gülbuğ Erol, Caner Çakı

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In Europe, it is seen that the immigrant population has increased in recent years. The rapid increase in the immigrant population has led to that some extreme right-wing parties increased their harsh discourse against the immigrants in Europe. In particular, it is seen that some right-wing parties in some European countries have demanded that the immigrant population could be controlled in the countries they are in, and even those immigrants should be removed from their countries. In this process, it is seen that these parties have effectively used social media platforms in the propaganda activities carried out for immigrants in recent years. In particular, the social media has great advantages in that these parties can address to the entire population in the country, apart from the limited masses that political parties address. How these political parties benefit from these advantages has great importance for the political parties to demonstrate their influence in political arena. In this study, it was tried to investigate how and why the extreme right-wing parties in Europe have used social media in their propaganda activities towards immigrant populations in Europe. For this purpose, the political parties of the three German-speaking countries in Europe were elected; Die Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (NPD) from Germany, Die Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ) from Austria, Die Schweizerische Volkspartei (SVP) from Switzerland. As social media platform, only their Facebook accounts were analyzed in this study. Accounts The political parties selected were examined with content analysis, and that social media was effectively used by extreme right-wing parties for propaganda purposes towards immigrants in Europe revealed.In this process, it is seen that these parties have effectively used social media platforms in the propaganda activities carried out for immigrants in recent years. In particular, the social media has great advantages in that these parties can address to the entire population in the country, apart from the limited masses that political parties address. How these political parties benefit from these advantages has great importance for the political parties to demonstrate their influence in political arena. In Europe, it is seen that the immigrant population has increased in recent years. The rapid increase in the immigrant population has led to that some extreme right-wing parties increased their harsh discourse against the immigrants in Europe. In particular, it is seen that some right-wing parties in some European countries have demanded that the immigrant population should be controlled in the countries they are in, and even those immigrants should be removed from their countries. In this process, it is seen that these parties have effectively used social media platforms in the propaganda activities carried out for immigrants in recent years. In particular, the social media has great advantages in that these parties can address to the entire population in the country, apart from the limited masses that political parties address. How these political parties benefit from these advantages has great importance for the political parties to demonstrate their influence in political arena. In this study, it was tried to investigate how and why the extreme right-wing parties in Europe have used social media in their propaganda activities towards immigrant populations in Europe. For this purpose, the political parties of the three German-speaking countries in Europe were elected; Die Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (NPD) from Germany, Die Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ) from Austria, Die Schweizerische Volkspartei (SVP) from Switzerland. As social media platform, only their Facebook accounts were analyzed in this study. Accounts The political parties selected were examined with content analysis and that social media was effectively used by extreme right-wing parties for propaganda purposes towards immigrants in Europe revealed.

Keywords: content analysis, political parties, propaganda, social media

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Authors: D. Vidhyaprakash, A. Elango

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In real-time applications, wheeled mobile robots are increasingly used and operated in extreme and diverse conditions traversing challenging surfaces such as a pitted, uneven terrain, natural flat, smooth terrain, as well as wet and dry surfaces. In order to accomplish such tasks, it is critical that the motion control functions without wheel slip and odometry error during the navigation of the two-wheeled mobile robot (WMR). Wheel slip and odometry error are disrupting factors on overall WMR performance in the form of deviation from desired trajectory, navigation, travel time and budgeted energy consumption. The wheeled mobile robot’s ability to operate at peak performance on various work surfaces without wheel slippage and odometry error is directly connected to four main parameters, which are the range of payload distribution, speed, wheel diameter, and wheel width. This paper analyses the effects of those parameters on overall performance and is concerned with determining the ideal range of parameters for optimum performance.

Keywords: wheeled mobile robot, terrain, wheel slippage, odometryerror, trajectory

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Authors: Armansyah, I. P. Almanar, M. Saiful Bahari Shaari, M. Shamil Jaffarullah

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Finite element approach have been used via three-dimensional models by using Altair Hyper Work, a commercially available software, to describe heat gradients along the welding zones (axially and coronaly) in Friction Stir Welding (FSW). Transient thermal finite element analyses are performed in AA 6061-T6 Aluminum Alloy to obtain temperature distribution in the welded aluminum plates during welding operation. Heat input from tool shoulder and tool pin are considered in the model. A moving heat source with a heat distribution simulating the heat generated by frictions between tool shoulder and work piece is used in the analysis. The developed model was then used to show the effect of various input parameters such as total rate of welding speed and rotational speed on temperature distribution in the work piece.

Keywords: Frictions Stir Welding (FSW), temperature distribution, Finite Element Method (FEM), altair hyperwork

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Authors: Jiayue Yang

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Based on an analysis of China's database of certified disabled persons in 2021, this study reveals several key findings. Firstly, the proportion of certified mentally disabled persons among China's certified disabled population (Certification rate 1) shows a decreasing distribution from the East to the West and from the South to the North. Secondly, the spatial distribution of the number of mentally disabled persons per 1,000 people holding certificates (certification rate 2) shows a relatively scattered pattern, with significant variations observed between cities in the eastern region. However, on an overall scale, a south-north gradient can still be observed, with higher rates in the North and lower rates in the west, while the central region demonstrates higher rates compared to the western region. The variation in the rate of mentally handicapped certificates among regions is influenced not only by traditional culture and welfare level but also exhibits a certain correlation with the level of economic development.

Keywords: certified disabled persons, mentally disabled persons, spatial distribution, China

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Authors: Barbara Kilosanidze, George Kakauridze, Levan Nadareishvili, Yuri Mshvenieradze

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A new method for determining the distribution of birefringence and linear dichroism in optical polymer materials is presented. The method is based on the use of polarization-holographic diffraction grating that forms an orthogonal circular basis in the process of diffraction of probing laser beam on the grating. The intensities ratio of the orders of diffraction on this grating enables the value of birefringence and linear dichroism in the sample to be determined. The distribution of birefringence in the sample is determined by scanning with a circularly polarized beam with a wavelength far from the absorption band of the material. If the scanning is carried out by probing beam with the wavelength near to a maximum of the absorption band of the chromophore then the distribution of linear dichroism can be determined. An appropriate theoretical model of this method is presented. A laboratory setup was created for the proposed method. An optical scheme of the laboratory setup is presented. The results of measurement in polymer films with two-dimensional gradient distribution of birefringence and linear dichroism are discussed.

Keywords: birefringence, linear dichroism, graded oriented polymers, optical polymers, optical anisotropy, polarization-holographic grating

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Authors: Miyeon Yoo, Sewon Kim, Changyeop Lee

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It is important to measure the internal temperature or temperature distribution precisely in combustion system to increase energy efficiency and reduce the pollutants. Especially in case of large combustion systems such as power plant boiler and reheating furnace of steel making process, it is very difficult to measure those physical properties in detail. Tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy measurement and analysis can be attractive method to overcome the difficulty. In this paper, TDLAS methods are used to measure the oxygen concentration and temperature distribution in various experimental conditions.

Keywords: tunable diode laser absorption Spectroscopy, temperature distribution, gas concentration

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Authors: S. Vavias, T. R. Brewer, T. S. Farewell

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Coastal floods have been identified as an important natural hazard that can cause significant damage to the populated built-up areas, related infrastructure and also ecosystems and habitats. This study attempts to fill the gap associated with the development of preliminary assessments of coastal flood vulnerability for compliance with the EU Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). In this context, a methodology has been created by taking into account three major parameters; the maximum wave run-up modelled from historical weather observations, the highest tide according to historic time series, and the sea level rise projections due to climate change. A high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) derived from LIDAR data has been used to integrate the estimated flood events in a GIS environment. The flood vulnerability map created shows potential risk areas and can play a crucial role in the coastal zone planning process. The proposed method has the potential to be a powerful tool for policy and decision makers for spatial planning and strategic management.

Keywords: coastal floods, vulnerability mapping, climate change, extreme weather events

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Authors: Ahmadur Rahman, Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ariful Islam

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In this article, we have estimated the parameters for the failure times of units based on the sampling technique adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring under the step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk. The failure times of the units are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the distribution and tampered coefficient. Confidence interval also obtained for the parameters. A simulation study is performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation method to check the authenticity of the model and its assumptions.

Keywords: adaptive type-I hybrid progressive censoring, competing risks, exponential distribution, simulation, step-stress partially accelerated life tests

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Authors: Dmitry Yu. Korulkin, Raissa A. Muzychkina

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In review the generalized data about biosynthetic routs formation anthraquinone molecules in natural cells. The basic possibilities of various ways of biosynthesis of different quinoid substances are shown.

Keywords: anthraquinones, biochemical evolution, biosynthesis, metabolism

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Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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In this paper, quantitative structure-retention relationships (QSRR) analysis was applied in order to correlate in silico biological and lipophilicity molecular descriptors with retention values for the set of selected s-triazine herbicides. In silico generated biological and lipophilicity descriptors were discriminated using generalized pair correlation method (GPCM). According to this method, the significant difference between independent variables can be noticed regardless almost equal correlation with dependent variable. Using established multiple linear regression (MLR) models some biological characteristics could be predicted. Established MLR models were evaluated statistically and the most suitable models were selected and ranked using sum of ranking differences (SRD) method. In this method, as reference values, average experimentally obtained values are used. Additionally, using SRD method, similarities among investigated s-triazine herbicides can be noticed. These analysis were conducted in order to characterize selected s-triazine herbicides for future investigations regarding their biodegradability. This study is financially supported by COST action TD1305.

Keywords: descriptors, generalized pair correlation method, pesticides, sum of ranking differences

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Authors: Chen-Fang Tsai, Shin-Li Lu

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Distribution-free control chart is an oncoming area from the statistical process control charts in recent years. Some researchers have developed various nonparametric control charts and investigated the detection capability of these charts. The major advantage of nonparametric control charts is that the underlying process is not specifically considered the assumption of normality or any parametric distribution. In this paper, two nonparametric exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts based on nonparametric tests, namely NE-S and NE-M control charts, are proposed for monitoring process variability. Generally, weighted moving average (GWMA) control charts are extended by utilizing design and adjustment parameters for monitoring the changes in the process variability, namely NG-S and NG-M control charts. Statistical performance is also investigated on NG-S and NG-M control charts with run rules. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is performed to show the effects of design parameters under the nonparametric NG-S and NG-M control charts.

Keywords: Distribution-free control chart, EWMA control charts, GWMA control charts

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Authors: Rahman Dashti, Ehsan Gord

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In this paper, an improved impedance based fault location method is proposed. In this method, online fault locating is performed using voltage and current information at the beginning of the feeder. Determining precise fault location in a short time increases reliability and efficiency of the system. The proposed method utilizes information about main component of voltage and current at the beginning of the feeder and distributed generation unit (DGU) in order to precisely locate different faults in acceptable time. To evaluate precision and accuracy of the proposed method, a 13-node is simulated and tested using MATLAB.

Keywords: distribution network, fault section determination, distributed generation units, distribution protection equipment

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Authors: Abbas Hani, Maryam Jassasizadeh

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The concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Ni were determined from 40 soil samples collected in surface soils of Khark Island. Geostatistic methods and GIS were used to identify heavy metal sources and their spatial pattern. Principal component analysis coupled with correlation between heavy metals showed that level of mentioned heavy metal was lower than the standard level. Then the data obtained from the soil analyzing were studied for the purposes of normal distribution. The best way of interior finding for cadmium and nickel was ordinary kriging and the best way of interpolation of lead was inverse distance weighted. The result of this study help us to understand heavy metals distribution and make decision for remediation of soil pollution.

Keywords: geostatistics, ordinary kriging, heavy metals, GIS, Khark

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Authors: Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Jeanne Cole, Sybil Sharvelle, Ali Mostafavi

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Dual water distribution systems have been proposed as solutions to enhance the sustainability and resilience of urban water systems by improving performance and decreasing energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term resilience and robustness of dual water distribution systems versus singular water distribution systems under various stressors such as demand fluctuation, aging infrastructure, and funding constraints. To this end, the long-term dynamics of these infrastructure systems was captured using a simulation model that integrates institutional agency decision-making processes with physical infrastructure degradation to evaluate the long-term transformation of water infrastructure. A set of model parameters that varies for dual and singular distribution infrastructure based on the system attributes, such as pipes length and material, energy intensity, water demand, water price, average pressure and flow rate, as well as operational expenditures, were considered and input in the simulation model. Accordingly, the model was used to simulate various scenarios of demand changes, funding levels, water price growth, and renewal strategies. The long-term resilience and robustness of each distribution infrastructure were evaluated based on various performance measures including network average condition, break frequency, network leakage, and energy use. An ecologically-based resilience approach was used to examine regime shifts and tipping points in the long-term performance of the systems under different stressors. Also, Classification and Regression Tree analysis was adopted to assess the robustness of each system under various scenarios. Using data from the City of Fort Collins, the long-term resilience and robustness of the dual and singular water distribution systems were evaluated over a 100-year analysis horizon for various scenarios. The results of the analysis enabled: (i) comparison between dual and singular water distribution systems in terms of long-term performance, resilience, and robustness; (ii) identification of renewal strategies and decision factors that enhance the long-term resiliency and robustness of dual and singular water distribution systems under different stressors.

Keywords: complex systems, dual water distribution systems, long-term resilience performance, multi-agent modeling, sustainable and resilient water systems

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Authors: Sidi Mohamed Mesli, Mohamed Habchi, Arslane Boudghene Stambouli, Rafik Benallal

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The BaMnMF7 (M=Fe,V, transition metal fluoride glass, assuming isomorphous replacement) have been structurally studied through the simultaneous simulation of their neutron diffraction patterns by reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) and by the Hybrid Reverse Monte Carlo (HRMC) analysis. This last is applied to remedy the problem of the artificial satellite peaks that appear in the partial pair distribution functions (PDFs) by the RMC simulation. The HRMC simulation is an extension of the RMC algorithm, which introduces an energy penalty term (potential) in acceptance criteria. The idea of this work is to apply the Buckingham potential at the title glass by ignoring the van der Waals terms, in order to make a fit of the partial pair distribution functions and give the most possible realistic features. When displaying the partial PDFs, we suggest that the Buckingham potential is useful to describe average correlations especially in similar interactions.

Keywords: fluoride glasses, RMC simulation, hybrid RMC simulation, Buckingham potential, partial pair distribution functions

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Authors: Siyuan Cai

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This paper takes community segregation during major infectious diseases as the background, based on the physiological needs and safety needs of citizens during home segregation, and based on the selection of convenient facilities and medical facilities as the main research objects. Based on the POI data of public facilities in Chongqing, the spatial distribution characteristics of the convenience and medical facilities in the 15-minute living circle centered on three neighborhoods in Shapingba, namely Shengwei Community, Anju Commmunity and Fengtian Garden Community, were explored by means of GIS spatial analysis. The results show that the spatial distribution of convenience and medical facilities in this area has significant clustering characteristics, with a point-like distribution pattern of "dense in the west and sparse in the east", and a grouped and multi-polar spatial structure. The spatial structure is multi-polar and has an obvious tendency to the intersections and residential areas with dense pedestrian flow. This study provides a preliminary exploration of the distribution of medical and convenience facilities within the 15-minute living circle of a segregated community, which makes up for the lack of spatial research in this area.

Keywords: ArcGIS, community segregation, convenient facilities; distribution pattern, medical facilities, POI, 15-minute community life circle

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Authors: Ishapathik Das, Sumen Sen, N. Rao Chaganty, Pooja Sengupta

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Dependent multivariate count data occur in several research studies. These data can be modeled by a multivariate Poisson or Negative binomial distribution constructed using copulas. However, when some of the counts are inflated, that is, the number of observations in some cells are much larger than other cells, then the copula based multivariate Poisson (or Negative binomial) distribution may not fit well and it is not an appropriate statistical model for the data. There is a need to modify or adjust the multivariate distribution to account for the inflated frequencies. In this article, we consider the situation where the frequencies of two cells are higher compared to the other cells, and develop a doubly inflated multivariate Poisson distribution function using multivariate Gaussian copula. We also discuss procedures for regression on covariates for the doubly inflated multivariate count data. For illustrating the proposed methodologies, we present a real data containing bivariate count observations with inflations in two cells. Several models and linear predictors with log link functions are considered, and we discuss maximum likelihood estimation to estimate unknown parameters of the models.

Keywords: copula, Gaussian copula, multivariate distributions, inflated distributios

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Authors: Shenghong Huang, Weirong Wang, Xisheng Luo, Xinzhu Li, Xinwen Zhao

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Understanding of material mixing induced by Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI) at extreme shock compressing conditions (high energy density environment: P >> 100GPa, T >> 10000k) is of great significance in engineering and science, such as inertial confinement fusion(ICF), supersonic combustion, etc. Turbulent mixing induced by RMI is a kind of complex fluid dynamics, which is closely related with hydrodynamic conditions, thermodynamic states, material physical properties such as compressibility, strength, surface tension and viscosity, etc. as well as initial perturbation on interface. For phenomena in ordinary thermodynamic conditions (low energy density environment), many investigations have been conducted and many progresses have been reported, while for mixing in extreme thermodynamic conditions, the evolution may be very different due to ionization as well as large difference of material physical properties, which is full of scientific problems and academic interests. In this investigation, the first principle based molecular dynamic method is applied to study metal Lithium and gas Hydrogen (Li-H2) interface mixing in micro/meso scale regime at different shock compressing loading speed ranging from 3 km/s to 30 km/s. It's found that, 1) Different from low-speed shock compressing cases, in high-speed shock compresing (>9km/s) cases, a strong acceleration of metal/gas interface after strong shock compression is observed numerically, leading to a strong phase inverse and spike growing with a relative larger linear rate. And more specially, the spike growing rate is observed to be increased with shock loading speed, presenting large discrepancy with available empirical RMI models; 2) Ionization is happened in shock font zone at high-speed loading cases(>9km/s). An additional local electric field induced by the inhomogeneous diffusion of electrons and nuclei after shock font is observed to occur near the metal/gas interface, leading to a large acceleration of nuclei in this zone; 3) In conclusion, the work of additional electric field contributes to a mechanism of RMI in micro/meso scale regime at extreme shock compressing conditions, i.e., a Rayleigh-Taylor instability(RTI) is induced by additional electric field during RMI mixing process and thus a larger linear growing rate of interface spike.

Keywords: ionization, micro/meso scale, material mixing, shock

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Authors: Aderonke Oluseun Akinwumi, Olusola A. Komolaf

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This paper gives information about the wide array of challenges facing both the electric utilities and consumers in the distribution system in developing countries, using Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife Nigeria as a case study. It also proffers cost-effective solution through remote monitoring, diagnostic and operation of distribution networks without compromising the system reliability. As utilities move from manned and unintelligent networks to completely unmanned smart grids, switching activities at substations and feeders will be managed and controlled remotely by dedicated systems hence this design. The Substation Remote Diagnostic and Operation Solution (sRDOs) would remotely monitor the load on Medium Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) feeders as well as distribution transformers and allow the utility disconnect non-paying customers with absolutely no extra resource deployment and without interrupting supply to paying customers. The aftermath of the implementation of this design improved the lifetime of key distribution infrastructure by automatically isolating feeders during overload conditions and more importantly erring consumers. This increased the ratio of revenue generated on electricity bills to total network load.

Keywords: electric utility, consumers, remote monitoring, diagnostic, system reliability, manned and unintelligent networks, unmanned smart grids, switching activities, medium voltage, low voltage, distribution transformer

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Authors: Marzieh Karimihaghighi, Carlos Castillo

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This work studies how Machine Learning (ML) may be used to increase the effectiveness of a criminal recidivism risk assessment tool, RisCanvi. The two key dimensions of this analysis are predictive accuracy and algorithmic fairness. ML-based prediction models obtained in this study are more accurate at predicting criminal recidivism than the manually-created formula used in RisCanvi, achieving an AUC of 0.76 and 0.73 in predicting violent and general recidivism respectively. However, the improvements are small, and it is noticed that algorithmic discrimination can easily be introduced between groups such as national vs foreigner, or young vs old. It is described how effectiveness and algorithmic fairness objectives can be balanced, applying a method in which a single error disparity in terms of generalized false positive rate is minimized, while calibration is maintained across groups. Obtained results show that this bias mitigation procedure can substantially reduce generalized false positive rate disparities across multiple groups. Based on these results, it is proposed that ML-based criminal recidivism risk prediction should not be introduced without applying algorithmic bias mitigation procedures.

Keywords: algorithmic fairness, criminal risk assessment, equalized odds, recidivism

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Authors: Laslouni Warda, M. Azzaz

Abstract:

The intermetallic-based on transition metal compounds present interesting magnetic properties for the technological applications (permanent magnets, magnetic recording…). Cu70 Fe18Co12 and Cu70 Fe30 nanostructured with crystallite size vary from 10 a 12 nanometers have been developed by a mechanical milling method. For Cu-Fe samples, the iron and copper distribution was clear. The distribution showed a homogeneous distribution of iron and copper in a Cu-Fe obtained after 36 h milling. The structural properties have been performed with X-ray diffraction. With increasing milling times, Fe and Co diffuse into the Cu matrix, which accelerates the formation of the magnetic nanostructure Cu- Fe-Co and Cu-Fe alloys. The magnetic behavior is investigated using Vibrating Sample Magnetometer (VSM). The two alloys nanocrystals possess ferromagnetic character at room temperature

Keywords: Cu-Fe-Co, Cu-Fe, nanocrystals, SEM, hysteresis loops, VSM, anisotropy theory

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