Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 555

Search results for: ordinary kriging

555 Spatial Distribution of Heavy Metals in Khark Island-Iran Using Geographic Information System

Authors: Abbas Hani, Maryam Jassasizadeh

Abstract:

The concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Ni were determined from 40 soil samples collected in surface soils of Khark Island. Geostatistic methods and GIS were used to identify heavy metal sources and their spatial pattern. Principal component analysis coupled with correlation between heavy metals showed that level of mentioned heavy metal was lower than the standard level. Then the data obtained from the soil analyzing were studied for the purposes of normal distribution. The best way of interior finding for cadmium and nickel was ordinary kriging and the best way of interpolation of lead was inverse distance weighted. The result of this study help us to understand heavy metals distribution and make decision for remediation of soil pollution.

Keywords: geostatistics, ordinary kriging, heavy metals, GIS, Khark

Procedia PDF Downloads 70
554 Observed Changes in Constructed Precipitation at High Resolution in Southern Vietnam

Authors: Nguyen Tien Thanh, Günter Meon

Abstract:

Precipitation plays a key role in water cycle, defining the local climatic conditions and in ecosystem. It is also an important input parameter for water resources management and hydrologic models. With spatial continuous data, a certainty of discharge predictions or other environmental factors is unquestionably better than without. This is, however, not always willingly available to acquire for a small basin, especially for coastal region in Vietnam due to a low network of meteorological stations (30 stations) on long coast of 3260 km2. Furthermore, available gridded precipitation datasets are not fine enough when applying to hydrologic models. Under conditions of global warming, an application of spatial interpolation methods is a crucial for the climate change impact studies to obtain the spatial continuous data. In recent research projects, although some methods can perform better than others do, no methods draw the best results for all cases. The objective of this paper therefore, is to investigate different spatial interpolation methods for daily precipitation over a small basin (approximately 400 km2) located in coastal region, Southern Vietnam and find out the most efficient interpolation method on this catchment. The five different interpolation methods consisting of cressman, ordinary kriging, regression kriging, dual kriging and inverse distance weighting have been applied to identify the best method for the area of study on the spatio-temporal scale (daily, 10 km x 10 km). A 30-year precipitation database was created and merged into available gridded datasets. Finally, observed changes in constructed precipitation were performed. The results demonstrate that the method of ordinary kriging interpolation is an effective approach to analyze the daily precipitation. The mixed trends of increasing and decreasing monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation have documented at significant levels.

Keywords: interpolation, precipitation, trend, vietnam

Procedia PDF Downloads 223
553 Variable-Fidelity Surrogate Modelling with Kriging

Authors: Selvakumar Ulaganathan, Ivo Couckuyt, Francesco Ferranti, Tom Dhaene, Eric Laermans

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Variable-fidelity surrogate modelling offers an efficient way to approximate function data available in multiple degrees of accuracy each with varying computational cost. In this paper, a Kriging-based variable-fidelity surrogate modelling approach is introduced to approximate such deterministic data. Initially, individual Kriging surrogate models, which are enhanced with gradient data of different degrees of accuracy, are constructed. Then these Gradient enhanced Kriging surrogate models are strategically coupled using a recursive CoKriging formulation to provide an accurate surrogate model for the highest fidelity data. While, intuitively, gradient data is useful to enhance the accuracy of surrogate models, the primary motivation behind this work is to investigate if it is also worthwhile incorporating gradient data of varying degrees of accuracy.

Keywords: Kriging, CoKriging, Surrogate modelling, Variable- fidelity modelling, Gradients

Procedia PDF Downloads 410
552 Selection of Variogram Model for Environmental Variables

Authors: Sheikh Samsuzzhan Alam

Abstract:

The present study investigates the selection of variogram model in analyzing spatial variations of environmental variables with the trend. Sometimes, the autofitted theoretical variogram does not really capture the true nature of the empirical semivariogram. So proper exploration and analysis are needed to select the best variogram model. For this study, an open source data collected from California Soil Resource Lab1 is used to explain the problems when fitting a theoretical variogram. Five most commonly used variogram models: Linear, Gaussian, Exponential, Matern, and Spherical were fitted to the experimental semivariogram. Ordinary kriging methods were considered to evaluate the accuracy of the selected variograms through cross-validation. This study is beneficial for selecting an appropriate theoretical variogram model for environmental variables.

Keywords: anisotropy, cross-validation, environmental variables, kriging, variogram models

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
551 Climate Changes Impact on Artificial Wetlands

Authors: Carla Idely Palencia-Aguilar

Abstract:

Artificial wetlands play an important role at Guasca Municipality in Colombia, not only because they are used for the agroindustry, but also because more than 45 species were found, some of which are endemic and migratory birds. Remote sensing was used to determine the changes in the area occupied by water of artificial wetlands by means of Aster and Modis images for different time periods. Evapotranspiration was also determined by three methods: Surface Energy Balance System-Su (SEBS) algorithm, Surface Energy Balance- Bastiaanssen (SEBAL) algorithm, and Potential Evapotranspiration- FAO. Empirical equations were also developed to determine the relationship between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) versus net radiation, ambient temperature and rain with an obtained R2 of 0.83. Groundwater level fluctuations on a daily basis were studied as well. Data from a piezometer placed next to the wetland were fitted with rain changes (with two weather stations located at the proximities of the wetlands) by means of multiple regression and time series analysis, the R2 from the calculated and measured values resulted was higher than 0.98. Information from nearby weather stations provided information for ordinary kriging as well as the results for the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) developed by using PCI software. Standard models (exponential, spherical, circular, gaussian, linear) to describe spatial variation were tested. Ordinary Cokriging between height and rain variables were also tested, to determine if the accuracy of the interpolation would increase. The results showed no significant differences giving the fact that the mean result of the spherical function for the rain samples after ordinary kriging was 58.06 and a standard deviation of 18.06. The cokriging using for the variable rain, a spherical function; for height variable, the power function and for the cross variable (rain and height), the spherical function had a mean of 57.58 and a standard deviation of 18.36. Threatens of eutrophication were also studied, given the unconsciousness of neighbours and government deficiency. Water quality was determined over the years; different parameters were studied to determine the chemical characteristics of water. In addition, 600 pesticides were studied by gas and liquid chromatography. Results showed that coliforms, nitrogen, phosphorous and prochloraz were the most significant contaminants.

Keywords: DEM, evapotranspiration, geostatistics, NDVI

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550 Soil Degradati̇on Mapping Using Geographic Information System, Remote Sensing and Laboratory Analysis in the Oum Er Rbia High Basin, Middle Atlas, Morocco

Authors: Aafaf El Jazouli, Ahmed Barakat, Rida Khellouk

Abstract:

Mapping of soil degradation is derived from field observations, laboratory measurements, and remote sensing data, integrated quantitative methods to map the spatial characteristics of soil properties at different spatial and temporal scales to provide up-to-date information on the field. Since soil salinity, texture and organic matter play a vital role in assessing topsoil characteristics and soil quality, remote sensing can be considered an effective method for studying these properties. The main objective of this research is to asses soil degradation by combining remote sensing data and laboratory analysis. In order to achieve this goal, the required study of soil samples was taken at 50 locations in the upper basin of Oum Er Rbia in the Middle Atlas in Morocco. These samples were dried, sieved to 2 mm and analyzed in the laboratory. Landsat 8 OLI imagery was analyzed using physical or empirical methods to derive soil properties. In addition, remote sensing can serve as a supporting data source. Deterministic potential (Spline and Inverse Distance weighting) and probabilistic interpolation methods (ordinary kriging and universal kriging) were used to produce maps of each grain size class and soil properties using GIS software. As a result, a correlation was found between soil texture and soil organic matter content. This approach developed in ongoing research will improve the prospects for the use of remote sensing data for mapping soil degradation in arid and semi-arid environments.

Keywords: Soil degradation, GIS, interpolation methods (spline, IDW, kriging), Landsat 8 OLI, Oum Er Rbia high basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
549 Spatially Distributed Rainfall Prediction Based on Automated Kriging for Landslide Early Warning Systems

Authors: Ekrem Canli, Thomas Glade

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The precise prediction of rainfall in space and time is a key element to most landslide early warning systems. Unfortunately, the spatial variability of rainfall in many early warning applications is often disregarded. A common simplification is to use uniformly distributed rainfall to characterize aerial rainfall intensity. With spatially differentiated rainfall information, real-time comparison with rainfall thresholds or the implementation in process-based approaches might form the basis for improved landslide warnings. This study suggests an automated workflow from the hourly, web-based collection of rain gauge data to the generation of spatially differentiated rainfall predictions based on kriging. Because the application of kriging is usually a labor intensive task, a simplified and consequently automated variogram modeling procedure was applied to up-to-date rainfall data. The entire workflow was carried out purely with open source technology. Validation results, albeit promising, pointed out the challenges that are involved in pure distance based, automated geostatistical interpolation techniques for ever-changing environmental phenomena over short temporal and spatial extent.

Keywords: kriging, landslide early warning system, spatial rainfall prediction, variogram modelling, web scraping

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
548 Numerical Treatment of Block Method for the Solution of Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: A. M. Sagir

Abstract:

Discrete linear multistep block method of uniform order for the solution of first order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) in Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) is presented in this paper. The approach of interpolation and collocation approximation are adopted in the derivation of the method which is then applied to first order ordinary differential equations with associated initial conditions. The continuous hybrid formulations enable us to differentiate and evaluate at some grids and off – grid points to obtain four discrete schemes, which were used in block form for parallel or sequential solutions of the problems. Furthermore, a stability analysis and efficiency of the block method are tested on ordinary differential equations, and the results obtained compared favorably with the exact solution.

Keywords: block method, first order ordinary differential equations, hybrid, self-starting

Procedia PDF Downloads 297
547 Line Heating Forming: Methodology and Application Using Kriging and Fifth Order Spline Formulations

Authors: Henri Champliaud, Zhengkun Feng, Ngan Van Lê, Javad Gholipour

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In this article, a method is presented to effectively estimate the deformed shape of a thick plate due to line heating. The method uses a fifth order spline interpolation, with up to C3 continuity at specific points to compute the shape of the deformed geometry. First and second order derivatives over a surface are the resulting parameters of a given heating line on a plate. These parameters are determined through experiments and/or finite element simulations. Very accurate kriging models are fitted to real or virtual surfaces to build-up a database of maps. Maps of first and second order derivatives are then applied on numerical plate models to evaluate their evolving shapes through a sequence of heating lines. Adding an optimization process to this approach would allow determining the trajectories of heating lines needed to shape complex geometries, such as Francis turbine blades.

Keywords: deformation, kriging, fifth order spline interpolation, first, second and third order derivatives, C3 continuity, line heating, plate forming, thermal forming

Procedia PDF Downloads 380
546 Kriging-Based Global Optimization Method for Bluff Body Drag Reduction

Authors: Bingxi Huang, Yiqing Li, Marek Morzynski, Bernd R. Noack

Abstract:

We propose a Kriging-based global optimization method for active flow control with multiple actuation parameters. This method is designed to converge quickly and avoid getting trapped into local minima. We follow the model-free explorative gradient method (EGM) to alternate between explorative and exploitive steps. This facilitates a convergence similar to a gradient-based method and the parallel exploration of potentially better minima. In contrast to EGM, both kinds of steps are performed with Kriging surrogate model from the available data. The explorative step maximizes the expected improvement, i.e., favors regions of large uncertainty. The exploitive step identifies the best location of the cost function from the Kriging surrogate model for a subsequent weight-biased linear-gradient descent search method. To verify the effectiveness and robustness of the improved Kriging-based optimization method, we have examined several comparative test problems of varying dimensions with limited evaluation budgets. The results show that the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms some model-free optimization algorithms like genetic algorithm and differential evolution algorithm with a quicker convergence for a given budget. We have also performed direct numerical simulations of the fluidic pinball (N. Deng et al. 2020 J. Fluid Mech.) on three circular cylinders in equilateral-triangular arrangement immersed in an incoming flow at Re=100. The optimal cylinder rotations lead to 44.0% net drag power saving with 85.8% drag reduction and 41.8% actuation power. The optimal results for active flow control based on this configuration have achieved boat-tailing mechanism by employing Coanda forcing and wake stabilization by delaying separation and minimizing the wake region.

Keywords: direct numerical simulations, flow control, kriging, stochastic optimization, wake stabilization

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545 Evaluation of a Surrogate Based Method for Global Optimization

Authors: David Lindström

Abstract:

We evaluate the performance of a numerical method for global optimization of expensive functions. The method is using a response surface to guide the search for the global optimum. This metamodel could be based on radial basis functions, kriging, or a combination of different models. We discuss how to set the cycling parameters of the optimization method to get a balance between local and global search. We also discuss the eventual problem with Runge oscillations in the response surface.

Keywords: expensive function, infill sampling criterion, kriging, global optimization, response surface, Runge phenomenon

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544 On the Approximate Solution of Continuous Coefficients for Solving Third Order Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: A. M. Sagir

Abstract:

This paper derived four newly schemes which are combined in order to form an accurate and efficient block method for parallel or sequential solution of third order ordinary differential equations of the form y^'''= f(x,y,y^',y^'' ), y(α)=y_0,〖y〗^' (α)=β,y^('' ) (α)=μ with associated initial or boundary conditions. The implementation strategies of the derived method have shown that the block method is found to be consistent, zero stable and hence convergent. The derived schemes were tested on stiff and non-stiff ordinary differential equations, and the numerical results obtained compared favorably with the exact solution.

Keywords: block method, hybrid, linear multistep, self-starting, third order ordinary differential equations

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543 Finite Element Analysis of the Ordinary Reinforced Concrete Bridge Piers

Authors: Nabin Raj Chaulagain

Abstract:

Most of the concrete bridges in Nepal constructed during 90's and before are made up of low strength ordinary concrete which might be one of the reasons for damage in higher magnitude earthquake. Those bridges were designed by the outdated bridge codes which might not account the large seismic loads. This research investigates the seismic vulnerability of the existing single column ordinary concrete bridge pier by finite element modeling, using the software Seismostruct. The existing bridge pier capacity has been assessed using nonlinear pushover analysis and performance is compared after retrofitting those pier models with CFRP. Furthermore, the seismic evaluation was made by conducting cyclic loading test at different drift percentage. The performance analysis of bridge pier by nonlinear pushover analysis is further validated by energy dissipation phenomenon measured from the hysteric loop for each model of ordinary concrete piers.

Keywords: finite element modeling, ordinary concrete bridge pier, performance analysis, retrofitting

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542 Effect of Traffic Volume and Its Composition on Vehicular Speed under Mixed Traffic Conditions: A Kriging Based Approach

Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Use of speed prediction models sometimes appears as a feasible alternative to laborious field measurement particularly, in case when field data cannot fulfill designer’s requirements. However, developing speed models is a challenging task specifically in the context of developing countries like India where vehicles with diverse static and dynamic characteristics use the same right of way without any segregation. Here the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining the vehicular speed. The present research was carried out to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on vehicular speed under mixed traffic conditions. Classified traffic volume and speed data were collected from different geometrically identical six lane divided arterials in New Delhi. Based on these field data, speed prediction models were developed for individual vehicle category adopting Kriging approximation technique, an alternative for commonly used regression. These models are validated with the data set kept aside earlier for validation purpose. The predicted speeds showed a great deal of agreement with the observed values and also the model outperforms all other existing speed models. Finally, the proposed models were utilized to evaluate the effect of traffic volume and its composition on speed.

Keywords: speed, Kriging, arterial, traffic volume

Procedia PDF Downloads 277
541 Generalization of Tau Approximant and Error Estimate of Integral Form of Tau Methods for Some Class of Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: A. I. Ma’ali, R. B. Adeniyi, A. Y. Badeggi, U. Mohammed

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An error estimation of the integrated formulation of the Lanczos tau method for some class of ordinary differential equations was reported. This paper is concern with the generalization of tau approximants and their corresponding error estimates for some class of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) characterized by m + s =3 (i.e for m =1, s=2; m=2, s=1; and m=3, s=0) where m and s are the order of differential equations and number of overdetermination, respectively. The general result obtained were validated with some numerical examples.

Keywords: approximant, error estimate, tau method, overdetermination

Procedia PDF Downloads 323
540 Probability-Based Damage Detection of Structures Using Kriging Surrogates and Enhanced Ideal Gas Molecular Movement Algorithm

Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: probability-based damage detection (PBDD), Kriging, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, artificial intelligence, enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM)

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539 On a Continuous Formulation of Block Method for Solving First Order Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs)

Authors: A. M. Sagir

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of the developed linear multistep block method for solving first order initial value problem of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). The method calculates the numerical solution at three points simultaneously and produces three new equally spaced solution values within a block. The continuous formulations enable us to differentiate and evaluate at some selected points to obtain three discrete schemes, which were used in block form for parallel or sequential solutions of the problems. A stability analysis and efficiency of the block method are tested on ordinary differential equations involving practical applications, and the results obtained compared favorably with the exact solution. Furthermore, comparison of error analysis has been developed with the help of computer software.

Keywords: block method, first order ordinary differential equations, linear multistep, self-starting

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538 Reliability Modeling on Drivers’ Decision during Yellow Phase

Authors: Sabyasachi Biswas, Indrajit Ghosh

Abstract:

The random and heterogeneous behavior of vehicles in India puts up a greater challenge for researchers. Stop-and-go modeling at signalized intersections under heterogeneous traffic conditions has remained one of the most sought-after fields. Vehicles are often caught up in the dilemma zone and are unable to take quick decisions whether to stop or cross the intersection. This hampers the traffic movement and may lead to accidents. The purpose of this work is to develop a stop and go prediction model that depicts the drivers’ decision during the yellow time at signalised intersections. To accomplish this, certain traffic parameters were taken into account to develop surrogate model. This research investigated the Stop and Go behavior of the drivers by collecting data from 4-signalized intersections located in two major Indian cities. Model was developed to predict the drivers’ decision making during the yellow phase of the traffic signal. The parameters used for modeling included distance to stop line, time to stop line, speed, and length of the vehicle. A Kriging base surrogate model has been developed to investigate the drivers’ decision-making behavior in amber phase. It is observed that the proposed approach yields a highly accurate result (97.4 percent) by Gaussian function. It was observed that the accuracy for the crossing probability was 95.45, 90.9 and 86.36.11 percent respectively as predicted by the Kriging models with Gaussian, Exponential and Linear functions.

Keywords: decision-making decision, dilemma zone, surrogate model, Kriging

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537 Experimental Study of Different Types of Concrete in Uniaxial Compression Test

Authors: Khashayar Jafari, Mostafa Jafarian Abyaneh, Vahab Toufigh

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Polymer concrete (PC) is a distinct concrete with superior characteristics in comparison to ordinary cement concrete. It has become well-known for its applications in thin overlays, floors and precast components. In this investigation, the mechanical properties of PC with different epoxy resin contents, ordinary cement concrete (OCC) and lightweight concrete (LC) have been studied under uniaxial compression test. The study involves five types of concrete, with each type being tested four times. Their complete elastic-plastic behavior was compared with each other through the measurement of volumetric strain during the tests. According to the results, PC showed higher strength, ductility and energy absorption with respect to OCC and LC.

Keywords: polymer concrete, ordinary cement concrete, lightweight concrete, uniaxial compression test, volumetric strain

Procedia PDF Downloads 300
536 PM₁₀ and PM2.5 Concentrations in Bangkok over Last 10 Years: Implications for Air Quality and Health

Authors: Tin Thongthammachart, Wanida Jinsart

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Atmospheric particulate matter particles with a diameter less than 10 microns (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 microns (PM₂.₅) have adverse health effect. The impact from PM was studied from both health and regulatory perspective. Ambient PM data was collected over ten years in Bangkok and vicinity areas of Thailand from 2007 to 2017. Statistical models were used to forecast PM concentrations from 2018 to 2020. Monitoring monthly data averaged concentration of PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ were used as input to forecast the monthly average concentration of PM. The forecasting results were validated by root means square error (RMSE). The predicted results were used to determine hazard risk for the carcinogenic disease. The health risk values were interpolated with GIS with ordinary kriging technique to create hazard maps in Bangkok and vicinity area. GIS-based maps illustrated the variability of PM distribution and high-risk locations. These evaluated results could support national policy for the sake of human health.

Keywords: PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, statistical models, atmospheric particulate matter

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535 On the Derivation of Variable Step BBDF for Solving Second Order Stiff ODEs

Authors: S. A. M. Yatim, Z. B. Ibrahim, K. I. Othman, M. Suleiman

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The method of solving second order stiff ordinary differential equation (ODEs) that is based on backward differentiation formula (BDF) is considered in this paper. We derived the method by increasing the order of the existing method using an improved strategy in choosing the step size. Numerical results are presented to compare the efficiency of the proposed method to the MATLAB’s suite of ODEs solvers namely ode15s and ode23s. The method was found to be efficient to solve second order ordinary differential equation.

Keywords: backward differentiation formulae, block backward differentiation formulae, stiff ordinary differential equation, variable step size

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534 Comparing Numerical Accuracy of Solutions of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) Using Taylor's Series Method, Euler's Method and Runge-Kutta (RK) Method

Authors: Palwinder Singh, Munish Sandhir, Tejinder Singh

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The ordinary differential equations (ODE) represent a natural framework for mathematical modeling of many real-life situations in the field of engineering, control systems, physics, chemistry and astronomy etc. Such type of differential equations can be solved by analytical methods or by numerical methods. If the solution is calculated using analytical methods, it is done through calculus theories, and thus requires a longer time to solve. In this paper, we compare the numerical accuracy of the solutions given by the three main types of one-step initial value solvers: Taylor’s Series Method, Euler’s Method and Runge-Kutta Fourth Order Method (RK4). The comparison of accuracy is obtained through comparing the solutions of ordinary differential equation given by these three methods. Furthermore, to verify the accuracy; we compare these numerical solutions with the exact solutions.

Keywords: Ordinary differential equations (ODE), Taylor’s Series Method, Euler’s Method, Runge-Kutta Fourth Order Method

Procedia PDF Downloads 248
533 Empirical Evaluation of Gradient-Based Training Algorithms for Ordinary Differential Equation Networks

Authors: Martin K. Steiger, Lukas Heisler, Hans-Georg Brachtendorf

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Deep neural networks and their variants form the backbone of many AI applications. Based on the so-called residual networks, a continuous formulation of such models as ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has proven advantageous since different techniques may be applied that significantly increase the learning speed and enable controlled trade-offs with the resulting error at the same time. For the evaluation of such models, high-performance numerical differential equation solvers are used, which also provide the gradients required for training. However, whether classical gradient-based methods are even applicable or which one yields the best results has not been discussed yet. This paper aims to redeem this situation by providing empirical results for different applications.

Keywords: deep neural networks, gradient-based learning, image processing, ordinary differential equation networks

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532 Exploring Re-Configuration of Ordinary Spaces into Recreation and Leisure Space in Compact Unplanned Settlements: Experience from Manzese Informal Settlement-Dar Es Salaam Tanzania

Authors: Edson Ephraim Sanga

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This paper stems to explore possible places used for recreation in unplanned settlements in order to avail knowledge on how to create and shape urban spaces essential for recreation and leisure. The context of unplanned settlements is spatially characterized compactness and congestions of buildings developed by residents without professional inputs. These characteristics surpass greenery landscapes such as parks and squares essential for health, happiness and wellbeing. The lack of recreational greenery landscape arises a question on how possible can recreation take places in the settlements? This study used qualitative methods mainly observation and in-depth interview to explore the recreational situation in Manzese informal settlements as an instrumental case and found that ordinary spaces are re-configured into recreational spaces and used as ‘parks’ and ‘squares’ in the settlements. The spaces are diverse and complex as they possess different spatial characteristics based on their physical attributes and the way they are used and interpreted by respective users. This paper argues that the re-configuration processes of ordinary spaces should not be taken for granted because they portray the appropriation of spaces from quotidian dimensions in a particular context.

Keywords: ordinary spaces, recreation, unplanned settlement, urban spaces

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531 Perceived Effects of Alcohol Abuse on Ordinary Level Students at Gatsi Secondary School

Authors: Chimeri Muzano Leonard

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The study was carried out to investigate the perceptions of male and female Ordinary Level students on the effects of alcohol abuse at Gatsi Secondary School. The study showed that alcohol abuse has academic, social, psychological and health effects on Ordinary Level students. The negative effects comprises of death, dropping out, poor grades, poor concentration, risky behaviors, impairment of the brain and central nervous system , risky behaviors and Impairment of reproductive functioning Only students who enrolled for Ordinary Level in the 2014 academic year participated in this study. Fifty students (25 males and 25 females) were randomly selected to participate in the study. A formal survey questionnaire was used to collect data. The respondents were asked to use a scale of 0 (totally disagree) to 10 (completely agree) to indicate the extent to which they agreed with each perception. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 19.0 was used for data analysis. The Mann Whitney U test was used to test for the significance of differences in the perceptions of male and female students. No statistically significant differences were detected between males and females in most of their perceptions regarding the effects of alcohol abuse on Ordinary Level students. However, there were three perceptions found to be significantly different between male and female. They comprises of “Peers influence one to drink alcohol”, “Alcohol abuse is a major problem among male students compared to their female peers” and “ Female students should not drink beer”.It was evident from this study that Gatsi Secondary School needs to implement more effective interventions that combat alcohol abuse. A deeper analysis of the issues that predispose Ordinary Level students to alcohol abuse should inform the interventions. Consequently, unravelling the problem of negative effects of alcohol abuse was desirable because of its potential usefulness in developing strategies that might help curb the problem and presumably improve the performance of Ordinary Level students and above all the quality of education at Gatsi Secondary School.

Keywords: perceived effects, alcohol, Gatsi Secondary School, alcohol abuse

Procedia PDF Downloads 171
530 Discontinuous Galerkin Method for Higher-Order Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: Helmi Temimi

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In this paper, we study the super-convergence properties of the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method applied to one-dimensional mth-order ordinary differential equations without introducing auxiliary variables. We found that nth−derivative of the DG solution exhibits an optimal O (hp+1−n) convergence rates in the L2-norm when p-degree piecewise polynomials with p≥1 are used. We further found that the odd-derivatives and the even derivatives are super convergent, respectively, at the upwind and downwind endpoints.

Keywords: discontinuous, galerkin, superconvergence, higherorder, error, estimates

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529 The Origin, Diffusion and a Comparison of Ordinary Differential Equations Numerical Solutions Used by SIR Model in Order to Predict SARS-CoV-2 in Nordic Countries

Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

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528 Methods of Interpolating Temperature and Rainfall Distribution in Northern Vietnam

Authors: Thanh Van Hoang, Tien Yin Chou, Yao Min Fang, Yi Min Huang, Xuan Linh Nguyen

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Reliable information on the spatial distribution of annual rainfall and temperature is essential in research projects relating to urban and regional planning. This research presents results of a classification of temperature and rainfall in the Red River Delta of northern Vietnam based on measurements from seven meteorological stations (Ha Nam, Hung Yen, Lang, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Phu Lien, Thai Binh) in the river basin over a thirty-years period from 1982-2011. The average accumulated rainfall trends in the delta are analysed and form the basis of research essential to weather and climate forecasting. This study employs interpolation based on the Kriging Method for daily rainfall (min and max) and daily temperature (min and max) in order to improve the understanding of sources of variation and uncertainly in these important meteorological parameters. To the Kriging method, the results will show the different models and the different parameters based on the various precipitation series. The results provide a useful reference to assist decision makers in developing smart agriculture strategies for the Red River Delta in Vietnam.

Keywords: spatial interpolation method, ArcGIS, temperature variability, rainfall variability, Red River Delta, Vietnam

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527 Selection of Designs in Ordinal Regression Models under Linear Predictor Misspecification

Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs

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526 Developing Ergonomic Prototype Testing Method for Manual Material Handling

Authors: Yusuf Nugroho Doyo Yekti, Budi Praptono, Fransiskus Tatas Dwi Atmaji

Abstract:

There is no ergonomic prototype testing method for manual material handling yet. This study has been carried out to demonstrate the comprehensive ergonomic assessment. The ergonomic assessment is important to improve safety of products and to ensure usefulness of the product. The prototype testing is conducted by involving few intended users and ordinary people. In this study, there are four operators who participated in several tests. Also, there are 30 ordinary people who joined the usability test. All the ordinary people never do material handling activity nor use material handling device. The methods used in the tests are Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA), Recommended Weight Limit (RWL), and Cardiovascular Load (%CVL) other than usability test and questionnaire. The proposed testing methods cover comprehensive ergonomic aspects, i.e. physical aspect, mental aspect, emotional aspects of human.

Keywords: ergonomic, manual material handling, prototype testing, assessment

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