Search results for: flood risk management

Authors: Syed Sameer Aga, Saniya Nissar

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The Xeroderma pigmentosum group D gene (XPD) plays a key role in nucleotide excision repair (NER) pathway of the damaged DNA. Genetic polymorphisms in the coding region of the XPD gene may alter DNA repair capacity of the protein and hence can modulate the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The aim of the study was to determine the genetic association of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) development. 120 CRC patients and 160 normal controls were assessed for genotype frequencies of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism using PCR-RFLP technique. We observed a significant association (p < 0.05) between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of developing CRC (p < 0.05). Additionally, Gln/Gln genotype of the XPD gene doubled the risk for the development of CRC [p < 0.05; OR=2.25 95% CI (1.07-4.7)]. Our results suggest that there is a significant association between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of CRC.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, polymorphism, RFLP, DNA Repair, NER, XPD

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Authors: Ossai Paulinus Edwin

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Cash Management is a broad area having to do with the collection, concentration and disbursement of cash including measuring the level of liquidity and managing the cash balance and Short-Term Investments. Cash Management involves the efficient collection and disbursement of cash and cash equivalents. It also includes management of marketable securities because, in modern Terminology, money comprises marketable securities and actual cash in hand or in a bank. This cash management is concerned with management of cash inflow and cash outflow of a business especially as it concerns a developing nation like Nigeria. The paper throws light on the impact of cashless policy in Nigeria as it was introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in December 2011 and was kick started in Lagos in January 2012. Survey research was adopted with the questionnaires as data collection instrument. Responses show that cashless policy if adopted generally shall increase employment opportunities, reduce cash related robbery thereby reducing risk of carrying cash; it shall also reduce cash related corruption and attract more foreign investors to the country. It is expected that the introduction of cashless policy in Nigeria is a step in the right direction as it shall bring about modernization of Nigeria payment system, reduction in the cost of banking services, reduction in high security and safety risk and also curb banking related corruptions.

Keywords: cashless economy, cash management, cashless policy, e-banking, Nigeria

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for the easy creation of an institutional risk profile for endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support risk factors set up with just the most important values that are important for a particular organisation. Subsequently, the risk profile employs fuzzy models and associated configurations for the file format metadata aggregator to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment level for file formats. Our goal is to make use of a domain expert knowledge base aggregated from a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation and analysis of risk factors for a requried dimension. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor information and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is meant to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and automatically aggregated file format metadata from linked open data sources. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: digital information management, file format, endangerment analysis, fuzzy models

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Authors: A. Caicedo Padilla, J. Zambrano Nájera

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Cali, the capital of Valle del Cauca and the second city of Colombia, is located in the Cauca River Valley between the Western and Central Cordillera that is South West of the country. The topography of the city is mainly flat, but it is possibly to find mountains in the west. The city has increased urbanization during XX century, especially since 1958 when started a rapid growth due to migration of people from other parts of the region. Much of that population has settled in eastern of Cali, an area originally intended for cane cultivation and a zone of flood from Cauca River and its tributaries. Due to the unplanned migration, settling was inadequate and produced changes in natural dynamics of the basins, which has resulted in increases in runoff volumes, peak flows and flow velocities, that in turn increases flood risk. Sewerage networks capacity were not enough for this higher runoff volume, because in first term they were not adequately designed and built, causing its failure. This in turn generates increasingly recurrent floods generating considerable effects on the economy and development of normal activities in Cali. Thus, it becomes very important to know hydrological behavior of Urban Watersheds. This research aims to determine the impact of urbanization on hydrology of watersheds with very low slopes. The project aims to identify changes in natural drainage patterns caused by the changes made on landscape. From the identification of such modifications it will be defined the most critical areas due to recurring flood events in the city of Cali. Critical areas are defined as areas where the sewerage system does not work properly as surface runoff increases considerable with storm events, and floods are recurrent. The assessment will be done from the analysis of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) theme layers from CVC Environmental Institution of Regional Control in Valle del Cauca, hydrological data and disaster database developed by OSSO Corporation. Rainfall data from a network and historical stream flow data will be used for analysis of historical behavior and change of precipitation and hydrological response according to homogeneous zones characterized by EMCALI S.A. public utility enterprise of Cali in 1999.

Keywords: drainage systems, land cover changes, urban hydrology, urban planning

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Authors: Aïssa Rezzoug

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This paper is aimed to bring new elements that demonstrate the tide caused the groundwater to rise in the shoreline band, on which the urban areas occurs, especially in the western coastal cities of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia like Jeddah. The reason for the last events of Jeddah inundation was the groundwater rise in the city coupled at the same time to a strong precipitation event. This paper will illustrate the tide participation in increasing the groundwater level significantly. It shows that the reason for internal groundwater recharge within the urban area is not only the excess of the water supply coming from surrounding areas, due to the human activity, with lack of sufficient and efficient sewage system, but also due to tide effect. The research study follows a quantitative method to assess groundwater level rise risks through many in-situ measurements and mathematical modelling. The proposed approach highlights groundwater level, in the urban areas of the city on the shoreline band, reaching the high tide level without considering any input from precipitation. Despite the small tide in the Red Sea compared to other oceanic coasts, the groundwater level is considerably enhanced by the tide from the seaside and by the freshwater table from the landside of the city. In these conditions, the groundwater level becomes high in the city and prevents the soil to evacuate quickly enough the surface flow caused by the storm event, as it was observed in the last historical flood catastrophe of Jeddah in 2009.

Keywords: flood, groundwater rise, Jeddah, tide

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

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Authors: Han Gul Lee

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When water treatments utilities are designed, an initial construction site risk assessment is conducted. This helps us to understand general safety risks that each utility needs to be complemented in the designing stage. Once it’s built, an additional risk reassessment process secures and supplements its disaster management and response plan. Because of its constantly changing surroundings with city renovation and developments, the degree of various risks that each facility has to face changes. Therefore, to improve the preparedness for spill incidents or disasters, emergency managers should run spill simulations with the available scientific technologies. This research used a two-dimensional flow routing model to simulate its spill disaster scenario based on its digital elevation model (DEM) collected with drone technologies. The results of the simulations can help emergency managers to supplement their response plan with concrete situational awareness in advance. Planning based on this simulation model minimizes its potential loss and damage when an incident like earthquakes man-made disaster happens, which could eventually be a threat in a public health context. This pilot research provides an additional paradigm to increase the preparedness to spill disasters. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Environmental R&D Project on the Disaster Prevention of Environmental Facilities Program funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (No.202002860001).

Keywords: risk assessment, disaster management, water treatment utilities, situational awareness, drone technologies

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Authors: Emily Moskwa, Delene Weber, Jacob Arnold, Guy M. Robinson, Douglas K. Bardsley

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Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire are key contemporary concerns, with a growing literature exploring these issues from a social research perspective. Efforts range from narrowly focused examinations, such as comparing the level of community support for vegetation clearance with that of controlled burning, to broader considerations of what constitutes effective fire management policy and education campaigns. However, little analysis is available that integrates the social component of risk mitigation and the influence of educational materials with the biodiversity conservation strategies so often needed in fire-prone ecosystems found on the periphery of urban areas. Indeed many communities living on the fringe of Australian cities face major issues relating to an increased risk of wildfire events and a decline in local biodiversity. Inadequate policy and planning, and a lack of awareness or information, exacerbate this risk. This has brought forward an emerging governance challenge that requires the mitigation of wildfire risk while simultaneously supporting improved conservation practices in these urban-fringe areas. Focusing on the perceptions and experiences of residents of the Lower Eyre Peninsula in South Australia, this study analyses data collected from a series of semi-structured interviews with landholders (n=20) living in rural and urban-fringe areas surrounding the city of Port Lincoln, a city with a growing population and one that has faced a number of very large fires in recent years. In South Australia, new policies have assigned increased responsibility on individual landholders to manage their land and prepare themselves for a wildfire event, potentially to the detriment of the surrounding native vegetation. Our findings indicate the value of gaining a more nuanced understanding of the perceptions and behaviours of landholders living in areas of high fire risk, who often choose to live there in order to be close to the natural environment. Many interviewees demonstrated a high awareness of wildfire risk as a result of their past experience with fire, and the majority considered themselves to be well-prepared in the event of a future fire. Community interactions and educational programs were found to be effective in raising awareness of risk; however, negative trust relationships with government authorities and low exposure to information concerning biodiversity resulted in an overall misunderstanding of the relationship between risk mitigation and biodiversity protection. The study offers insights into how catastrophic fires are reframing perceptions of what constitutes effective vegetation management. It provides recommendations to assist with the development of education strategies that concurrently address wildfire management and biodiversity conservation, and contribute towards environmentally-informed and risk conscious governance.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, risk, peri-urban planning, wildfire management

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Authors: Oman Sukmana

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Geographically, Indonesia appears to be disaster-prone areas, whether for natural, nonnatural (man-made), or social disasters. This study aimed to construct the knowledge and social wisdom on the local community in the process of disaster management after the eruption of Mt. Kelud. This study, moreover, encompassed two major concerns: (1) the construction of knowledge and social wisdom on the local community in the process of disaster management after the eruption of Mt. Kelud; (2) the conceptual framework of disaster management on the basis of knowledge and social wisdom on the local community. The study was conducted by means of qualitative approach. The data were analyzed by using the qualitative-descriptive technique. The data collection techniques used in this study were in-depth interview, focus group discussion, observation, and documentation. It was conducted at Pandansari Village, Sub-district Ngantang, District Malang as the most at risk area of Mt. Kelud’s eruption. The purposive sampling was applied ad hoc to select the respondents including: the apparatus of Pandansari Village, the local figures of Pandansari Village, the Chief and Boards of the Forum of Disaster Risk Reduction (FPRB), the Head of Malang Regional Disaster Management Agency, and other agencies. The findings of this study showed that the local community has already possessed the adequate knowledge and social wisdom to overcome the disaster. Through the social wisdom, the local community could predict the potential eruption.

Keywords: knowledge, social and local wisdom, disaster management

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Authors: Yuri Katz, Kun Liu, Arunram Atmacharan

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Due to illiquidity, mispricing on Credit Markets is inevitable. This creates huge challenges to banks and investors as they seek to find new ways of risk valuation and portfolio management in a post-credit crisis world. Here, we analyze the difference in behavior of the spread-to-maturity in investment and high-yield categories of US corporate bonds between 2014 and 2023. Deviation from the theoretical dependency of this measure in the universe under study allows to identify multiple cases of mispriced credit risk. Remarkably, we observe mispriced bonds in both categories of credit ratings. This identification is supported by the application of the state-of-the-art machine learning model in more than 90% of cases. Noticeably, the ML-driven model-based forecasting of a category of bond’s credit ratings demonstrate an excellent out-of-sample accuracy (AUC = 98%). We believe that these results can augment conventional valuations of credit portfolios.

Keywords: credit risk, credit ratings, bond pricing, spread-to-maturity, machine learning

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Authors: Faisal Ali, Hasssan Saad Mohammed Hilmi, Mustafa Mohamed, Shamseddin Musa

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The Gash rivers an ephemeral river, it usually flows from July to September, it has a braided pattern with high sediment content, of 15200 ppm in suspension, and 360 kg/sec as bed load. The Gash river bed has an average slope of 1.3 m/Km. The objectives of this study were: assessing the Gash River bed level patterns; quantifying the annual variations in Gash bed level; and recommending a suitable method to reduce the sediment accumulation on the Gash River bed. The study covered temporally the period 1905-2013 using datasets included the Gash river flows, and the cross sections. The results showed that there is an increasing trend in the river bed of 5 cm3 per year. This is resulted in changing the behavior of the flood routing and consequently the flood hazard is tremendously increased in Kassala city.

Keywords: bed level, cross section, gash river, sedimentation

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Authors: Finbarr Murphy, Wei Xu, Xian Xu

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The embedding of digital technologies in the global economy has attracted increasing attention from economists. With a large and detailed dataset, this study examines the specific case where consumers have a choice between offline and digital channels in the context of insurance purchases. We find that digital channels screen consumers with lower unobserved risk. For the term life, endowment, and disease insurance products, the average risk of the policies purchased through digital channels was 75%, 21%, and 31%, respectively, lower than those purchased offline. As a consequence, the lower unobserved risk leads to weaker information asymmetry and higher profitability of digital channels. We highlight three mechanisms of the risk screening effect: heterogeneous marginal influence of channel features on insurance demand, the channel features directly related to risk control, and the link between the digital divide and risk. We also find that the risk screening effect mainly comes from the extensive margin, i.e., from new consumers. This paper contributes to three connected areas in the insurance context: the heterogeneous economic impacts of digital technology adoption, insurer-side risk selection, and insurance marketing.

Keywords: digital economy, information asymmetry, insurance, mobile application, risk screening

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Authors: Prandesha Govender, Chris Cloete

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Purpose: The objective of the paper is to develop a tool for the evaluation of the financial risk of a shopping center. Methodology: Important factors that indicate the success of a shopping center were identified from the available literature. Weights were allocated to these factors and a risk rating was calculated for 505 shopping centers in the largest province in South Africa by taking the factor scores, factor weights, and category weights into account. The ratings for ten randomly selected shopping centers were correlated with consumer feedback and standardized against the ECAI (External Credit Assessment Institutions) data for the same centers. The ratings were also mapped to corporates with the same risk rating to provide a better intuitive assessment of the meaning of the inherent risk of each center. Results: The proposed risk tool shows a strong linear correlation with consumer views and can be compared to expert opinions, such as that of fund managers and REITs. Interpretation of the tool was also illustrated by correlating the risk rating of selected shopping centers to the risk rating of reputable and established entities. Conclusions: The proposed Shopping Centre Risk Tool, used in conjunction with financial inputs from the relevant center, should prove useful to an investor when the desirability of investment in or expansion, renovation, or purchase of a shopping center is being considered.

Keywords: risk, shopping centres, risk modelling, investment, rating tool, rating scale

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Authors: Hela Ghali, Oumayma Ben Amor, Salwa Khefacha, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Sirine Frigui, Meriam Tourki Dhidah, Lamine Dhidah, Houyem Said Laatiri

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Background: Blood exposure accidents are the most common problem in hospitals that threaten healthcare professionals with a high risk of infectious complications which weighs heavily on health systems worldwide. Paramedics are the highest risk group due to the nature of their daily activities. We aimed to determine knowledge and attitudes about the management of blood-exposure accidents among nurses and technicians in two pediatric departments. Materials/Methods: This is a cross-sectional descriptive study conducted on March 2017, carried out with the care staff of the pediatric ward of the Farhat Hached Teaching Hospital of Sousse and pediatric surgery of the Fattouma Bourguiba University Hospital in Monastir, using a pre- tested and self-administered questionnaire. Data entry and analysis were performed using Excel software. Results: The response rate was 85.1%. A female predominance (82.5%) was reported among respondents with a sex ratio of 0.21. 80% of the participants were under 35 years old. Seniority of less than 10 years was found in 77.5% of respondents. Only 22.5% knew the definition of a blood- exposure accident. 100% and 95% of participants reported the relative risk, respectively, to hepatitis and AIDS viruses. However, only 15% recognized the severity factors of a blood-exposure accident. Hygiene compliance was the most important dimension for almost the entire population for the prevention. On the other hand, only 12.5% knew the meaning of 'standard precautions' and ¼ considered them necessary for at-risk patients only. 40% reported being exposed at least once, among them, 87.5% used betadine, and 77.5% said that anti-infectious chemoprophylaxis is necessary regardless of the patient's serological status. However, 52.5% did not know the official reporting circuit of management of blood-exposure accident in their institutions. Conclusion: For better management of risks in hospitals and an improvement of the safety of the care, a reinforcement of the sensibilization of the caregivers with regard to the risks of blood exposure accident is necessary, while developing their knowledge to act in security.

Keywords: attitudes, blood-exposure accident, knowledge, pediatric department

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Authors: A. Kourou, M. Panoutsopoulou

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Nowadays, disaster risk reduction requires innovative ways of working collaboratively, monitoring tools, management methods, risk communication, and knowledge, as key factors for decision-making actors. Experience has shown that the assessment of seismic risk and its effective management is still an important challenge. In Greece, Ionian Islands region is characterized as the most seismic area of the country and one of the most active worldwide. It is well known that in case of a disastrous earthquake the local authorities need to assess the situation in the affected area and coordinate the disaster response. In particular, the main outcomes of 'Telemachus' project are the development of an innovative operational system that hosts the needed data of seismic risk management in the Ionian Islands and the implementation of educational actions for the involved target groups. This project is funded in the Priority Axis 'Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development' of Operational Plan 'Ionian Islands 2014-2020'. EPPO is one of the partners of the project and it is responsible, among others, for the development of proper training material. This paper presents the training material of 'Telemachus' and its usage as a helpful, managerial tool in case of earthquake emergency. This material is addressed to different target groups, such as civil protection staff, people that involved with the tourism industry, educators of disabled people, etc. Very positive aspect of the project is the involvement of end-users that should evaluate the training products; test standards; clarify the personnel’s roles and responsibilities; improve interagency coordination; identify gaps in resources; improve individual performance; and identify opportunities for improvement. It is worth mentioning that even though the abovementioned material developed is useful for the training of specific target groups on emergency management issues within Ionian Islands Region, it could be used throughout Greece and other countries too.

Keywords: education of civil protection staff, Ionian Islands Region of Greece, seismic risk, training material

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Authors: Patraporn Kaewkhanitarak, Weerawan Marangkun

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The objective of this study was to explore the establishment and to investigate the relationship between the gender (male or female) of SME owner-managers/ entrepreneurs and their risk perception in business activity. The study examines the data by interviewing 76 SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs’ responses (37 males, 39 females) in manufacturing, finance, human resources and marketing sector in the economic regions of Songkhla province, Thailand. This study found that four tools which were operation, cash flow, staff, and new market were perceived by the SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs at high level. However, male and female SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs perceived some factors such as the age of SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs, the duration of firm operation, type of firm, and type of business without significant differences. In contrast, the gender affected the risk perception about increasing cost, fierce competition, leapfrog development of firm, substandard staff, namely that male and female perceived these factors with significant differences. According to the research, SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs should develop their risk management competency to deal with the risk efficiently. Secondly, SME firms should gather into groups. Furthermore, it was shown that the five key tools used to manage these risky situations were the use of managerial competencies and clustering.

Keywords: risk perception, owner-managers/entrepreneurs, SME, Songkhla, Thailand

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

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Authors: Mohammad Nazri Mustafa, Pedram Hatami Abdullah, M. Fakhrur Razi Ahmad Faizul

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With the issuance of Malaysian National Annex 2017 as a part of MS EN 1998-1:2015, the seismic mapping of Malaysian Peninsular including Sabah and Sarawak has undergone some changes in terms of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) value. The revision to the PGA has raised a concern on the safety of oil and gas onshore structures as these structures were not designed to accommodate the new PGA values which are much higher than the previous values used in the original design. In view of the high numbers of structures and buildings to be re-assessed, a risk assessment methodology has been developed to prioritize and rank the assets in terms of their criticality against the new seismic loading. To-date such risk assessment method for oil and gas onshore structures is lacking, and it is the main intention of this technical paper to share the risk assessment methodology and risk elements scoring finalized via Delphi Method. The finalized methodology and the values used to rank the risk elements have been established based on years of relevant experience on the subject matter and based on a series of rigorous discussions with professionals in the industry. The risk scoring is mapped against the risk matrix (i.e., the LOF versus COF) and hence, the overall risk for the assets can be obtained. The overall risk can be used to prioritize and optimize integrity assessment, repair and strengthening work against the new seismic mapping of the country.

Keywords: methodology, PGA, risk, seismic

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Authors: Gopinath Rathod, Vinod Puranik

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Sustainability is regarded as a key concept for survival in the competitive scenario. Industrial risk and diversification of risk type’s increases with industrial developments. In the context of sustainable manufacturing, the evaluation of risk is difficult because of the incomplete information and multiple indicators. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Method (FMADM) has been used with a three level hierarchical decision making model to evaluate aggregate risk for sustainable manufacturing projects. A case study has been presented to reflect the risk characteristics in sustainable manufacturing projects.

Keywords: sustainable manufacturing, decision making, aggregate risk, fuzzy logic, fuzzy multiple attribute decision method

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Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

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Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

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Authors: Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Achsania Hendratmi, Noven Suprayogi, Muhammad Madyan

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Theoretically, Islamic banks in Indonesia and Malaysia not necessarily aware to the interest rate fluctuation, since they don’t use interest-based instruments. Both countries use dual banking system in which Islamic and conventional banking system are exist. This situation makes the profit-sharing level of the Islamic banks will be indirectly affected by the interest rate fluctuation from the conventional banks system. One of the risk management tools for anticipating the risk of interest rate fluctuation is gap management, which has purpose to narrow the difference between Rate Sensitive Asset (RSA) and Rate Sensitive Liability (RSL). This formed gap will give the information about the risk potential in Islamic banks which respect to the fluctuation on the interest rate. This study aims to determine the position of the gap formed at Islamic Maybank Indonesia and Islamic Maybank Malaysia, and analyze the difference in the formation of gap based on the period of sensitivity. This study is a quantitative research with comparative study using sensitivity gap analysis, independent sample t-test, and Mann-Whitney method. The data being used was secondary data from Maturity Profile contained in the Annual Financial Report of Islamic Maybank Indonesia and Islamic Maybank Malaysia from 2011 to 2015 period. The result shows that, cumulatively the formation of the gap was negative gap. From the results of independent sample t-test and Mann-Whitney, the formation of the gap in Islamic Maybank Indonesia and Islamic Maybank Malaysia for a period of sensitivity of ≤ 1 month and >1-3 months show a significant difference, while the period of sensitivity >3-12 months does not. The result shows, even though Indonesia and Malaysia using same dual banking systems, the gap values are different. The difference in debt policy between Indonesia and Malaysia also affecting the gap sensitivity in debt. In can be concluded that each country needs an appropriate gap management to support its Islamic banking performance specifically.

Keywords: assets and liability management, gap management, interest rate risk, Islamic bank

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Authors: Witthaya Mekhum, Waleerak Sittisom

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This research investigated the effect on occupational health safety and environment at work from metal handicraft using Rattanakosin local wisdom focusing on pollution, accidents, and injuries from work. The sample group in this study included 48 metal handicraft workers in 5 communities by using questionnaires and interview to collect data. The evaluation form TISI 18001 was used to analyze job safety analysis (JSA). The results showed that risk at work reduced after applying the developed model. Banbu Community produces alloy bowl rubbed with stone. The high risk process is melting and hitting process. Before the application, the work risk was 82.71%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 50.61%. Banbart Community produces monk’s food bowl. The high risk process is blow pipe welding. Before the application, the work risk was 93.59%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 48.14%. Bannoen Community produces circle gong. The high risk process is milling process. Before the application, the work risk was 85.18%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 46.91%. Teethong Community produces gold leaf. The high risk process is hitting and spreading process. Before the application, the work risk was 86.42%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 64.19%. Ban Changthong Community produces gold ornament. The high risk process is gold melting process. Before the application, the work risk was 67.90%. After the application of the developed model, the work risk was reduced to 37.03%. It can be concluded that with the application of the developed model, the work risk of 5 communities was reduced in the 3 main groups: (1) Work illness reduced by 16.77%; (2) Pollution from work reduced by 10.31%; (3) Accidents and injuries from work reduced by 15.62%.

Keywords: occupational health, safety, local wisdom, Rattanakosin

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Authors: Mirim Kim, Won-Oak Oh

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Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify hospitalized children's fall risk factors, fall prevention status and fall prevention strategies recognized by nurses and caregivers of hospitalized children and present an ecological model for fall preventive management in hospitalized children. Method: The participants of this study were 14 nurses working in medical institutions and having more than one year of child care experience and 14 adult caregivers of children under 6 years of age receiving inpatient treatment at a medical institution. One to one interview was attempted to identify their perception of fall preventive management. Transcribed data were analyzed through latent content analysis method. Results: Fall risk factors in hospitalized children were 'unpredictable behavior', 'instability', 'lack of awareness about danger', 'lack of awareness about falls', 'lack of child control ability', 'lack of awareness about the importance of fall prevention', 'lack of sensitivity to children', 'untidy environment around children', 'lack of personalized facilities for children', 'unsafe facility', 'lack of partnership between healthcare provider and caregiver', 'lack of human resources', 'inadequate fall prevention policy', 'lack of promotion about fall prevention', 'a performanceism oriented culture'. Fall preventive management status of hospitalized children were 'absence of fall prevention capability', 'efforts not to fall', 'blocking fall risk situation', 'limit the scope of children's activity when there is no caregiver', 'encourage caregivers' fall prevention activities', 'creating a safe environment surrounding hospitalized children', 'special management for fall high risk children', 'mutual cooperation between healthcare providers and caregivers', 'implementation of fall prevention policy', 'providing guide signs about fall risk'. Fall preventive management strategies of hospitalized children were 'restrain dangerous behavior', 'inspiring awareness about fall', 'providing fall preventive education considering the child's eye level', 'efforts to become an active subject of fall prevention activities', 'providing customed fall prevention education', 'open communication between healthcare providers and caregivers', 'infrastructure and personnel management to create safe hospital environment', 'expansion fall prevention campaign', 'development and application of a valid fall assessment instrument', 'conversion of awareness about safety'. Conclusion: In this study, the ecological model of fall preventive management for hospitalized children reflects various factors that directly or indirectly affect the fall prevention of hospitalized children. Therefore, these results can be considered as useful baseline data for developing systematic fall prevention programs and hospital policies to prevent fall accident in hospitalized children. Funding: This study was funded by the National Research Foundation of South Korea (grant number NRF-2016R1A2B1015455).

Keywords: fall down, safety culture, hospitalized children, risk factors

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Authors: Samah Jawad Jabari

Abstract:

Water is the most important and valuable resource not only for human life but also for all living things on the planet. The water supply utilities should fulfill the water requirement quantitatively and qualitatively. Drinking water systems are exposed to both natural (hurricanes and flood) and manmade hazards (risks) that are common in Palestine. Non-Revenue Water (NRW) is a manmade risk which remains a major concern in Palestine, as the NRW levels are estimated to be at a high level. In this research, Hebron city water distribution network was taken as a case study to estimate and audit the NRW levels. The research also investigated the state of the existing water distribution system in the study area by investigating the water losses and obtained more information on NRW prevention and management practices. Data and information have been collected from the Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) and Hebron Municipality (HM) archive. In addition to that, a questionnaire has been designed and administered by the researcher in order to collect the necessary data for water auditing. The questionnaire also assessed the views of stakeholder in PWA and HM (staff) on the current status of the NRW in the Hebron water distribution system. The important result obtained by this research shows that NRW in Hebron city was high and in excess of 30%. The main factors that contribute to NRW were the inaccuracies in billing volumes, unauthorized consumption, and the method of estimating consumptions through faulty meters. Policy for NRW reduction is available in Palestine; however, it is clear that the number of qualified staff available to carry out the activities related to leak detection is low, and that there is a lack of appropriate technologies to reduce water losses and undertake sufficient system maintenance, which needs to be improved to enhance the performance of the network and decrease the level of NRW losses.

Keywords: non-revenue water, water auditing, leak detection, water meters

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Authors: Razan Salem

Abstract:

Men and women have different approaches towards investing, both in terms of strategies and risk attitudes. This study aims to focus mainly on investigating the financial risk behaviors of Arab women investors and to examine the financial risk tolerance levels of Arab women relative to Arab men investors. Using survey data on 547 Arab men and women investors, the results of Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One-Sample) test Mann-Whitney U test reveal that Arab women are risk-averse investors and have lower financial risk tolerance levels relative to Arab men. Such findings can be explained by the fact of women's nature and lower investment literacy levels. Further, the current political uncertainty in the Arab region may be considered as another explanation of Arab women’s risk aversion behavior. The study's findings support the existing literature by validating the stereotype of “women are more risk-averse than men” in the Arab region. Overall, when it comes to investment and financial behaviors, women around the world behave similarly.

Keywords: Arab region, culture, financial risk behavior, gender differences, women investors

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Authors: Jaimin Patel

Abstract:

Cloud computing is one of the most sharp and important movement in various computing technologies. It provides flexibility to users, cost effectiveness, location independence, easy maintenance, enables multitenancy, drastic performance improvements, and increased productivity. On the other hand, there are also major issues like security. Being a common server, security for a cloud is a major issue; it is important to provide security to protect user’s private data, and it is especially important in e-commerce and social networks. In this paper, encryption algorithms such as Advanced Encryption Standard algorithms, their vulnerabilities, risk of attacks, optimal time and complexity management and comparison with other algorithms based on software implementation is proposed. Encryption techniques to improve the performance of AES algorithms and to reduce risk management are given. Secure Hash Algorithms, their vulnerabilities, software implementations, risk of attacks and comparison with other hashing algorithms as well as the advantages and disadvantages between hashing techniques and encryption are given.

Keywords: Cloud computing, encryption algorithm, secure hashing algorithm, brute force attack, birthday attack, plaintext attack, man in middle attack

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Authors: Balasaheb Bansode

Abstract:

Diabetes is a very important component in non-communicable diseases. Diabetes ailment is a route of the multi-morbidities ailments. The South Indian states are almost completing the demographic transition in India. The study objectives present the prevalence of diabetes and its association with co-morbidities among the south Indian women. The study based on National Family Health Survey fourth round (NFHS) 4 conducted in 2015-16. The univariate, bivariate and multivariate analyses techniques have been used to find the association of risk factors and comorbidities with diabetics. The result reveals that the prevalence of diabetes is high among South Indian women. The study shows the women with diabetics have more chances to diagnose with hypertension and anemia comorbidities. The factors responsible for co-morbidities are changing the demographic situation, socioeconomic status, overweight and addict with substance use in South India. The awareness about diabetes prevention and management should be increased through health education, disease management programmes, trained peers and community health workers and community-based programmes.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, comorbidities, women

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Authors: David Ahiamadia, Ramilan Thiagarajah, Peter Tozer

Abstract:

In Sub Saharan Africa, farm typologies have been used as a practical way to address heterogeneity among farming systems which is mostly done by grouping farms into subsets with similar characteristics. Due to the complexity in farming systems among farm households, it is not possible to formulate policy recommendations for individual farmers. As a result, this study employs a multivariate statistical approach using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) coupled with cluster analysis to reduce heterogeneity in a 615-household data set from the Africa Rising Baseline Evaluation Survey for 25 farming communities in Northern Ghana. Variables selected for the study were mostly socio-economic, production potential, production intensity, production orientation, crop diversity, food security, resource endowments, and climate risk variables. To avoid making some individuals in the subpopulation worse off when aclimate risk intervention is broadly implemented, the findings of the study also account for diversity in climate risk perception among the different farm types identified and their response strategies towards climate risk. The climate risk variables used in this study involve the most severeclimate shock types perceived by the household, household response to climate shock type, and reason for crop failure (i.e., maize, rice, and groundnut). Eventually, four farm types, each with an adequate level of homogeneity in climate risk perception and response strategies, were identified. Farm type 1 and 3 were wealthy with a lower degree of climate risk perception compared to farm type 2 and 4. Also, relatively wealthy farmers used asset liquidation as a climate risk management strategy, whereas poor farmers resorted to engaging in spiritual activities such as prayers, sacrifices, and divine consultations.

Keywords: smallholder, households, climate risk, variables, typologies

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Authors: Arie Pujiwati, Kengo Nakamura, Noriaki Watanabe, Takeshi Komai

Abstract:

Coal mining is well known to cause considerable environmental impacts, including trace element contamination of soil. This study aimed to assess the trace element (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) contamination of soil in the vicinity of coal mining activities, using the case study of Asam-asam River basin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and to assess the human health risk, incorporating total and bioavailable (water-leachable and acid-leachable) concentrations. The results show the enrichment of As and Co in soil, surpassing the background soil value. Contamination was evaluated based on the index of geo-accumulation, I_geo and the pollution index, PI. I_geo values showed that the soil was generally uncontaminated (I_geo ≤ 0), except for elevated As and Co. Mean PI for Ni and Cu indicated slight contamination. Regarding the assessment of health risks, the Hazard Index, HI showed adverse risks (HI > 1) for Ni, Co, and As. Further, Ni and As were found to pose unacceptable carcinogenic risk (risk > 1.10^-5). Farming, settlement, and plantation were found to present greater risk than coal mines. These results show that coal mining activity in the study area contaminates the soils by particular elements and may pose potential human health risk in its surrounding area. This study is important for setting appropriate countermeasure actions and improving basic coal mining management in Indonesia.

Keywords: coal mine, risk, trace elements, soil

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Authors: Peifang Hsieh

Abstract:

The prevention of child abuse has aroused serious concerns in Taiwan because of the disparity between the increasing amount of reported child abuse cases that doubled over the past decade and the scarcity of social workers. New Taipei city, with the most population in Taiwan and over 70% of its 4 million citizens are migrant families in which the needs of children can be easily neglected due to insufficient support from relatives and communities, sees urgency for a social support system, by preemptively identifying and outreaching high-risk families of child abuse, so as to offer timely assistance and preventive measure to safeguard the welfare of the children. Big data analysis is the inspiration. As it was clear that high-risk families of child abuse have certain characteristics in common, New Taipei city decides to consolidate detailed background information data from departments of social affairs, education, labor, and health (for example considering status of parents’ employment, health, and if they are imprisoned, fugitives or under substance abuse), to cross-reference for accurate and prompt identification of the high-risk families in need. 'The Service Center for High-Risk Families' (SCHF) was established to integrate data cross-departmentally. By utilizing the machine learning 'random forest method' to build a risk prediction model which can early detect families that may very likely to have child abuse occurrence, the SCHF marks high-risk families red, yellow, or green to indicate the urgency for intervention, so as to those families concerned can be provided timely services. The accuracy and recall rates of the above model were 80% and 65%. This prediction model can not only improve the child abuse prevention process by helping social workers differentiate the risk level of newly reported cases, which may further reduce their major workload significantly but also can be referenced for future policy-making.

Keywords: child abuse, high-risk families, big data analysis, risk prediction model

Procedia PDF Downloads 121