Search results for: classical theory of probability

Authors: Kannapha Amaruchkul

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We formulate a dynamic overbooking model for a tour operator, in which most reservations contain at least two people. The cancellation rate and the timing of the cancellation may depend on the group size. We propose two overbooking policies, namely economic- and service-based. In an economic-based policy, we want to minimize the expected oversold and underused cost, whereas, in a service-based policy, we ensure that the probability of an oversold situation does not exceed the pre-specified threshold. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we use tour package data in 2016-2018 from a tour operator in Thailand to build a data-driven robust optimization model, and we tested the proposed overbooking policy in 2019. We also compare the data-driven approach to the conventional approach of fitting data into a probability distribution.

Keywords: applied stochastic model, data-driven robust optimization, overbooking, revenue management, tour operator

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Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

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In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test

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Authors: Kaouther Jaouadi, Jihene Bettaieb, Amira Bennour, Ghassen Kharroubi, Sadok Salem, Afif Ben Salah

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In Tunisia, chronic cutaneous leishmaniasis due to Leishmania (L) tropica is an important health problem. Its spreading has not been fully elucidated. Information on sandfly vectors, as well as their associated Leishmania species, is of paramount importance since vector dispersion is one of the major factors responsible for pathogen dissemination. In total, 650 sandflies were captured between June and August 2015 using sticky paper traps in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid, a classical focus of L. major in the Central-West of Tunisia. Polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of the internal transcribed spacer 1 and sequencing were used for Leishmania detection and identification. Ninety-seven unfed females were tested for the presence of Leishmania parasite DNA. Six Phlebotomus sergenti were found positive for L. tropica. This finding enhances the understanding of the cycle extension of L. tropica outside its original focus of Tataouine in the South-East of the country.

Keywords: cutaneous leishmaniasis, Leishmania tropica, sandflies, Tunisia

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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Authors: Anuta Mukherjee, Saswati Mukherjee

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Data is growing everyday. Social networking sites such as Twitter are becoming an integral part of our daily lives, contributing a large increase in the growth of data. It is a rich source especially for sentiment detection or mining since people often express honest opinion through tweets. However, although sentiment analysis is a well-researched topic in text, this analysis using Twitter data poses additional challenges since these are unstructured data with abbreviations and without a strict grammatical correctness. We have employed collision theory to achieve sentiment analysis in Twitter data. We have also incorporated discourse analysis in the collision theory based model to detect accurate sentiment from tweets. We have also used the retweet field to assign weights to certain tweets and obtained the overall weightage of a topic provided in the form of a query. Hadoop has been exploited for speed. Our experiments show effective results.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, twitter, collision theory, discourse analysis

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Authors: Laura V. Gonzalez, Juan B. Duarte, Luis A. Palacio

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Decision making can be conditioned by factors such as the environments, circumstances, behavioral biases, emotions, beliefs and preferences of the participants. The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect ‘amount of information’ and ‘number of options’, on the behavior of competitors under a bilateral negotiation context. For the above, it has been designed an experiment as a classroom game where they negotiate goods, under the condition that none of the players knows exactly the real value of the asset. The game is designed under the concept of zero-sum (non-cooperative game) and focuses on the fact that agents must anticipate the strategies of their opponent to improve their chances of winning in the negotiation. The empirical results show that, contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory, players prefer to obtain low profits and losses, when faced with a higher expectation of losses, using sub-optimal strategies not in accordance with game theory.

Keywords: bilateral negotiation, classroom game, decision making, game theory

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Authors: Avaneesh Vaishwar, Badam Singh Kushvah, Devi Prasad Mishra

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We studied the variation in orbital elements of Mars and Jupiter for a time span of 200 thousand years by using secular theory. Here we took Sun oblateness into account and considered the first two zonal gravity constants (J2 and J4) for showing the effect of Sun oblateness on the orbital elements of Mars and Jupiter. We found that in both cases (with and without Sun oblateness) the variation in orbital elements of Mars and Jupiter is periodic moreover in case of the Sun oblateness, the period of variation in orbital elements is decreasing for both the planets.

Keywords: lagrange's planetary equation, orbital elements, planetary system, secular theory

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Authors: Armenio Lopes, Carlos Ferreira

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In the specific context of the Iberian Union between 1580 and 1640, characteristics emerged in Portuguese architecture that stood out from the main architectural production of the period. Recognised and identified aspects that had begun making their appearance decades before (1521) became significantly more marked during the Hapsburg-Spanish occupation. Distinctive even from the imperialist language of Spain, this trend would endure even after the restoration of independence (1706), continuing through to the start of the age of absolutism. Or perhaps not. This trend, recognised as Plain Style (Kubler), associated with a certain scarcity of resources, involved a certain formal and decorative simplification, as well as a particular set of conventions that would subsequently mark the landscape. This expression could also be seen as a means of asserting a certain spirit of independence as the Iberian Union breathed its last. The image of a simple, bare-bones architecture with purer design lines is associated by various authors –most notably Kubler– with the narratives of modernism, to whose principles it is similar, in a context-specific to the period. There is a contrast with some of the exuberance of the baroque or its expression in the Manueline period, in a similar fashion to modernism's responses to nineteenth-century eclecticism. This assertion and practice of simple architecture, drafted from the interpretation of the treaties, and highlighting a certain classical inspiration, was to become a benchmark in the theory of architecture, spanning the Baroque and Mannerism, until achieving contemporary recognition within certain originality and modernity. At a time when the baroque and its scenography became generally very widespread, it is important also to recognise the role played by plain style architecture in the construction of a rather complex and contradictory waterfront landscape, featuring promises of exuberance and more discrete practices.

Keywords: Carlos Mardel, Lisbon's waterfront, plain style, urban image on the waterfront

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Authors: Alexander Blokhin, Ekaterina Kruglova, Boris Semisalov

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Mathematical model based on the mesoscopic theory of polymer dynamics is developed for numerical simulation of the flows of polymeric liquid between two coaxial cylinders. This model is a system of nonlinear partial differential equations written in the cylindrical coordinate system and coupled with the heat conduction equation including a specific dissipation term. The stationary flows similar to classical Poiseuille ones are considered, and the resolving equations for the velocity of flow and for the temperature are obtained. For solving them, a fast pseudospectral method is designed based on Chebyshev approximations, that enables one to simulate the flows through the channels with extremely small relative values of the radius of inner cylinder. The numerical analysis of the dependance of flow on this radius and on the values of dissipation constant is done.

Keywords: dynamics of polymeric liquid, heat dissipation, singularly perturbed problem, pseudospectral method, Chebyshev polynomials, stabilization technique

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Authors: A. G. Temnikov, O. S. Belova, L. L. Chernensky, T. K. Gerastenok, N. Y. Lysov, A. V. Orlov, D. S. Zhuravkova

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Hypothesis of the lightning initiation on the arrays of large hydrometeors are in the consideration. There is no agreement about the form the hydrometeors that could be the best for the lightning initiation from the thundercloud. Artificial charged water aerosol clouds of the positive or negative polarity could help investigate the possible influence of the hydrometeor form on the peculiarities and the probability of the lightning discharge initiation between the thundercloud and the ground. Artificial charged aerosol clouds that could create the electric field strength in the range of 5-6 kV/cm to 16-18 kV/cm have been used in experiments. The array of the model hydrometeors of the volume and plate form has been disposed near the bottom cloud boundary. It was established that the different kinds of the discharge could be initiated in the presence of the model hydrometeors array – from the cloud discharges up to the diffuse and channel discharges between the charged cloud and the ground. It was found that the form of the model hydrometeors could significantly influence the channel discharge initiation from the artificial charged aerosol cloud of the negative or positive polarity correspondingly. Analysis and generalization of the experimental results have shown that the maximal probability of the channel discharge initiation and propagation stimulation has been observed for the artificial charged cloud of the positive polarity when the arrays of the model hydrometeors of the cylinder revolution form have been used. At the same time, for the artificial charged clouds of the negative polarity, application of the model hydrometeor array of the plate rhombus form has provided the maximal probability of the channel discharge formation between the charged cloud and the ground. The established influence of the form of the model hydrometeors on the channel discharge initiation and from the artificial charged water aerosol cloud and its following successful propagation has been related with the different character of the positive and negative streamer and volume leader development on the model hydrometeors array being near the bottom boundary of the charged cloud. The received experimental results have shown the possibly important role of the form of the large hail particles precipitated in thundercloud on the discharge initiation.

Keywords: cloud and channel discharges, hydrometeor form, lightning initiation, negative and positive artificial charged aerosol cloud

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Authors: Yu Du, Jian-Guo Wang

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Green consumption is a key link to develop the ecological economy, and consumers are vital to carry out green consumption. With environmental awareness gradually being aroused, consumers often fail to turn their positive attitude into actual green consumption behavior. According to behavior reasoning theory, reasons for adoption have a direct (positive) influence on consumers’ attitude while reasons against adoption have a direct (negative) influence on consumers’ adoption intentions, the incongruous coexistence of which leads to the attitude-behavior gap of green consumption. Based on behavior reasoning theory, this research integrates reasons for adoption and reasons against adoption into a proposed model, in which reasons both for and against green consumption mediate the relationship between consumer’ values, attitudes, and behavioral intentions. It not only extends the conventional theory of reasoned action but also provides a reference for the government and enterprises to design the repairing strategy of green consumption attitude-behavior gap.

Keywords: green product, attitude-behavior gap, behavior reasoning theory, green consumption, SEM

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Authors: Abilio Pires Zacarias

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Analyzing company boards of directors is a relevant and timely topic. As the representative of shareholders, the board is the most senior management body of this type of company. Therefore, ascertaining the best kind of candidates to nominate, namely the most appropriate characteristics for leading the board to achieve better levels of performance, is certainly of great interest. The companies selected for this study were the 1,000 largest non-financial companies and the 100 largest financial companies in Portugal according to the Instituto Nacional de Estatística for 2010. The information stemmed from a questionnaire addressed to the person in charge of daily company management and then processed through STATA 17 with the multivariate analysis of variables - MANOVA. The study may correspondingly report that the vast majority of boards in the sample operate a dual leadership structure. By in terms of its prevalence, unitary leadership represents only a minority. Agency theory and stewardship theory postulate different characteristics for the ideal chairman but neither receive confirmation from our results. On the other hand, our findings do validate the behavioral theory of firms (BToF), concluding that experience is associated with organizational performance. This study is also relevant due to its analysis of companies not listed on the financial markets not only because of their weighting in the economy but also because they remain only very poorly studied in this field and thus also correspondingly contributing to deepening the literature.

Keywords: agency theory, behavioral theory of the firm, board of directors, corporate governance, stewardship theory

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Authors: Taufik Hidayat, Yudha Nurhantari, Bambang U. D. Rianto

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Introduction: The examination of the Short Tandem Repeats (STR) locus on nuclear DNA is very useful in solving the paternity cases. The purpose of this study is to know the description of paternity cases and paternity index/probability of paternity analysis based on Indonesian allele frequency at Sardjito Hospital Yogyakarta. Method: This was an observational study with cross-sectional analytic method. Population and sample were all cases of disputed paternity from January 2011 to June 2015 that fulfill the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were examined at Forensic Medicine Unit of Sardjito Hospital, Medical Faculty of Gadjah Mada University. The paternity index was calculated with EasyDNA Program by Fung (2013). Analysis of the study was conducted by comparing the results through unpaired categorical test using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This study was designed with 95% confidence interval (CI) with α = 5% and significance level is p < 0,05. Results: From 42 disputed paternity cases we obtained trio paternity cases were 32 cases (76.2%) and duo without a mother was 10 cases (23.8%). The majority of the fathers' estimated ages were 21-30 years (33.3%) and the mother's age was 31-40 years (38.1%). The majority of the ages of children examined for paternity were under 12 months (47.6%). The majority of ethnic clients are Javanese. Conclusion of inclusion was 57.1%, and exclusion was 42.9%. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test obtained p-value = 0.673. Conclusion: There is no significant difference between paternity index/probability of paternity based on Indonesian allele frequency between trio and duo of paternity.

Keywords: disputed paternity, paternity index, probability of paternity, short tandem

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Authors: Rasha Salameh

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In light of the tense relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran, this research paper sheds some light on Al-Arabiya’s reporting of Coronavirus in the Gulf. Particularly because most of the cases, in the beginning, were coming from Iran, some programs of this Saudi channel embraced a conspiracy theory. Hate speech has been used in talking about the topic and discussing it. The results of these discussions will be detailed in this paper in percentages with regard to the research sample, which includes five programs on Al-Arabiya channel: ‘DNA’, ‘Marraya’ (Mirrors), ‘Panorama’, ‘Tafaolcom’ (Your Interaction) and the ‘Diplomatic Street’, in the period between January 19, that is, the date of the first case in Iran, and April 10, 2020. The research shows the use of a conspiracy theory in the programs, in addition to some professional violations. The surveyed sample also shows that the matter receded due to the Arab Gulf states' preoccupation with the successively increasing cases that have appeared there since the start of the pandemic. The results indicate that hate speech was present in the sample at a rate of 98.1% and that most of the programs that dealt with the Iranian issue under the Corona pandemic on Al Arabiya used the conspiracy theory at a rate of 75.5%.

Keywords: Al-Arabiya, Iran, Corona, hate speech, conspiracy theory, politicization of the pandemic

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Authors: Masoud Charkhabi

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We examine trade theory with this motivation. The full set of World Trade Organization data are organized into country-year pairs, each treated as a different entity. Topological Data Analysis reveals that among the 16 region and 240 region-year pairs there exists in fact a distinguishable group of region-period pairs. The generally accepted periods of shifts from dissimilar-dissimilar to similar-similar trade in goods among regions are examined from this new perspective. The period breaks are treated as cumulative and are flexible. This type of all-subsets analysis is motivated from computer science and is made possible with Lossy Compression and Graph Theory. The results question many patterns in similar-similar to dissimilar-dissimilar trade. They also show indications of economic shifts that only later become evident in other economic metrics.

Keywords: econometrics, globalization, network science, topological data, analysis, trade theory, visualization, world trade

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Authors: Jinming Ma, Tianbing Xia, Janusz Getta

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This paper presents the application of fuzzy set theory to implement of mobile advertisement anti-fraud systems. Mobile anti-fraud is a method aiming to identify mobile advertisement fraudsters. One of the main problems of mobile anti-fraud is the lack of evidence to prove a user to be a fraudster. In this paper, we implement an application by using fuzzy set theory to demonstrate how to detect cheaters. The advantage of our method is that the hardship in detecting fraudsters in small data samples has been avoided. We achieved this by giving each user a suspicious degree showing how likely the user is cheating and decide whether a group of users (like all users of a certain APP) together to be fraudsters according to the average suspicious degree. This makes the process more accurate as the data of a single user is too small to be predictable.

Keywords: mobile internet, advertisement, anti-fraud, fuzzy set theory

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Authors: B. Ramakrishna, S. Sivamurthy Reddy

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The various types of aggregates such as granite, dolerite, Quartzite, dolomitic limestone, limestone and river gravel were used to produce the concrete with 28-day target compressive strength of 35, 60, and 80 Mpa. The compressive strength of concrete, as well as aggregates, was measured to study the effect of rupture probability of aggregate on the fracture surface of the concrete. Also, the petrographic studies were carried out to study the texture, type of minerals present and their relative proportions in various types of aggregates. The concrete of various grades produced with the same aggregate has shown a rise in RPCA with strength. However, the above relationship has ceased to exist in the concretes of the same grade, made of different types of aggregates. The carbonate aggregates namely Limestone and Dolomitic limestone have produced concrete with higher RPCA irrespective of the strength of concrete. The mode of origin, texture and mineralogical composition of aggregates have a significant impact on their pulse velocity and thereby the pulse velocity of concrete.

Keywords: RPCA, DL, G, LS, RG

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Authors: Arafat Husain

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The lubricants are one of the most used resource in today’s world. Lot of the superpowers are dependent on the lubricant resource for their country to function. To see that the lubricants are not adulterated we need to develop some efficient ways and to see which fluid has been added to the lubricant. So to observe the these malpractices in the lubricant we need to develop a method. We take a elastic ball and through it at probability circle in the submerged in the lubricant at a fixed force and see the distance of pitching and the point of fall. Then we the ratio of distance of falling to the distance of pitching and if the measured ratio is greater than one the fluid is less viscous and if the ratio is lesser than the lubricant is viscous. We will check the falling point of pure lubricant at fixed force and every pure lubricant would have a fixed falling point. After that we would adulterate the lubricant and note the falling point and if the falling point is less than the standard value then adulterate is solid and if the adulterate is liquid the falling point will be more than the standard value. Hence the comparison with the standard falling point will give the efficiency of the lubricant.

Keywords: falling point of lubricant, falling point ratios, probability circle, octane number

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection structures based on measured modal parameters. Therefore, a probability-based damage detection (PBDD) procedure based on a model updating procedure is presented in this paper, in which a one-stage model-based damage identification technique based on the dynamic features of a structure is investigated. The presented framework uses a finite element updating method with a Monte Carlo simulation that considers the uncertainty caused by measurement noise. Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) is used as the main algorithm for model updating. Ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM) is a multiagent algorithm based on the ideal gas molecular movement. Ideal gas molecules disperse rapidly in different directions and cover all the space inside. This is embedded in the high speed of molecules, collisions between them and with the surrounding barriers. In IGMM algorithm to accomplish the optimal solutions, the initial population of gas molecules is randomly generated and the governing equations related to the velocity of gas molecules and collisions between those are utilized. In this paper, an enhanced version of IGMM, which removes unchanged variables after specified iterations, is developed. The proposed method is implemented on two numerical examples in the field of structural damage detection. The results show that the proposed method can perform well and competitive in PBDD of structures.

Keywords: enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM), ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM), model updating method, probability-based damage detection (PBDD), uncertainty quantification

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Authors: S. Meziane, H. I. Faraoun, C. Esling

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Transition metal dichalcogenides have potential applications in power generation devices that convert waste heat into electric current by the so-called Seebeck and Hall effects thus providing an alternative energy technology to reduce the dependence on traditional fossil fuels. In this study, the thermoelectric properties of 1T and 2HTaX2 (X= S or Se) dichalcogenide superconductors have been computed using the semi-classical Boltzmann theory. Technologically, the task is to fabricate suitable materials with high efficiency. It is found that 2HTaS2 possesses the largest value of figure of merit ZT= 1.27 at 175 K. From a scientific point of view, we aim to model the underlying materials properties and in particular the transport phenomena as mediated by electrons and lattice vibrations responsible for superconductivity, Charge Density Waves (CDW) and metal/insulator transitions as function of temperature. The goal of the present work is to develop an understanding of the superconductivity of these selected materials using the transport properties at the fundamental level.

Keywords: Ab initio, High efficiency, Power generation devices, Transition metal dichalcogenides

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish, Magda M. Madbouly, Murad B. Khorsheed

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Sign Languages (SL) are the most accomplished forms of gestural communication. Therefore, their automatic analysis is a real challenge, which is interestingly implied to their lexical and syntactic organization levels. Hidden Markov models (HMM’s) have been used prominently and successfully in speech recognition and, more recently, in handwriting recognition. Consequently, they seem ideal for visual recognition of complex, structured hand gestures such as are found in sign language. In this paper, several results concerning static hand gesture recognition using an algorithm based on Type-2 Fuzzy HMM (T2FHMM) are presented. The features used as observables in the training as well as in the recognition phases are based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). SVD is an extension of Eigen decomposition to suit non-square matrices to reduce multi attribute hand gesture data to feature vectors. SVD optimally exposes the geometric structure of a matrix. In our approach, we replace the basic HMM arithmetic operators by some adequate Type-2 fuzzy operators that permits us to relax the additive constraint of probability measures. Therefore, T2FHMMs are able to handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties existing universally in the sequential data. Experimental results show that T2FHMMs can effectively handle noise and dialect uncertainties in hand signals besides a better classification performance than the classical HMMs. The recognition rate of the proposed system is 100% for uniform hand images and 86.21% for cluttered hand images.

Keywords: hand gesture recognition, hand detection, type-2 fuzzy logic, hidden Markov Model

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Authors: Robert Vanderburg, Nicholas Gibson

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Objectives: There has been an increased focus in education students’ mathematics skills in the last two years. Universities have, specifically, had problems teaching students struggling with mathematics. This paper focuses on the ability of a digital platform to significantly improve mathematics skills for struggling students. Methods: 32 students who demonstrated low scores on a mathematics test were selected to take part in a one-month tutorial program using a digital mathematics portal. Students were provided feedback for questions posted on the portal and a fortnightly tutorial session. Results: A pre-test post-test design was analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The analysis suggested that students improved skills in algebra, geometry, statistics, probability, ratios, fractions, and probability. Conclusion: Distance university students can improve their mathematics skills using a digital platform.

Keywords: digital education, distance education, higher education, mathematics education

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Authors: Deepa Das, Susmita Das

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Cognitive Radio (CR) is an emerging technology to combat the spectrum scarcity issues. This is achieved by consistently sensing the spectrum, and detecting the under-utilized frequency bands without causing undue interference to the primary user (PU). In soft decision fusion (SDF) based cooperative spectrum sensing, various evolutionary algorithms have been discussed, which optimize the weight coefficient vector for maximizing the detection performance. In this paper, we propose the hybrid invasive weed optimization and particle swarm optimization (IWO/PSO) algorithm as a fast and global optimization method, which improves the detection probability with a lesser sensing time. Then, the efficiency of this algorithm is compared with the standard invasive weed optimization (IWO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA) and other conventional SDF based methods on the basis of convergence and detection probability.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, soft decision fusion, GA, PSO, IWO, hybrid IWO/PSO

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Authors: Sade Ogundipe

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The private healthcare sector in the United Kingdom has experienced unprecedented challenges during times of crisis, necessitating effective leadership adaptability. This qualitative study delves into the dynamic landscape of leadership within the sector, particularly during crises, employing the lenses of complexity theory and institutional theory to unravel the intricate mechanisms at play. Through in-depth interviews with 25 various levels of leaders in the UK private healthcare sector, this research explores how leaders in UK private healthcare organizations navigate complex and often chaotic environments, shedding light on their adaptive strategies and decision-making processes during crises. Complexity theory is used to analyze the complicated, volatile nature of healthcare crises, emphasizing the need for adaptive leadership in such contexts. Institutional theory, on the other hand, provides insights into how external and internal institutional pressures influence leadership behavior. Findings from this study highlight the multifaceted nature of leadership adaptability, emphasizing the significance of leaders' abilities to embrace uncertainty, engage in sensemaking, and leverage the institutional environment to enact meaningful changes. Furthermore, this research sheds light on the challenges and opportunities that leaders face when adapting to crises within the UK private healthcare sector. The study's insights contribute to the growing body of literature on leadership in healthcare, offering practical implications for leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders within the UK private healthcare sector. By employing the dual perspectives of complexity theory and institutional theory, this research provides a holistic understanding of leadership adaptability in the face of crises, offering valuable guidance for enhancing the resilience and effectiveness of healthcare leadership within this vital sector.

Keywords: leadership, adaptability, decision-making, complexity, complexity theory, institutional theory, organizational complexity, complex adaptive system (CAS), crises, healthcare

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Authors: Mina Darabi Amin

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In 1972, Hans Robert Jauss introduced the Reception Theory a version of Reader-response criticism, that suggests the literary critics to re-examine the relationship between the author, the work and the reader. The revealing of these relationships has shown that, besides the creation, the reception and the reading of the text have different levels which exempt it from a continuous reference to the meaning intended by the artist and could lead to multiplicity of possible interpretations according to the ‘Horizon of Expectations’. This theory could be associated with another intellectual process called ‘translation’, a process that is always confronted by different levels of readers in the target language and different levels of reception by these readers. By adopting the perspective of Reception theory in translation, we could ignore a particular kind of translation and consider the initiation to a literary text, its translation and its reception as a continuous process. Just like the creation of the text, the translation and its reception, are not made once and for all; they are confronted with different levels of reception and interpretation which are made and remade endlessly. After having known and crossing the first levels, the Horizons of Expectation could be extended and the reader could be initiated to the higher levels. On the other hand, we could say that the faithful and free translation are not opposed to each other, but depending on the type of reception by the readers and in a particular moment, the existence of both is necessary. In fact, it is the level of reception in readers and their Horizon of Expectations that determine the degree of fidelity and freedom of translation.

Keywords: reception theory, reading, literary translation, horizons of expectation, reader

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Authors: Recep Yücel, Cihat Kartal, Mustafa Kara

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On the basis of strategic management, it is believed in the necessity of a number of innovations in the postmodern management approach in the management of universities in our country. In this sense, some of these requirements are the integration of public and private universities, international integration, R & D status and increasing young population will create a dynamic structure. According to the postmodern management approach, universities, in our country despite being governed by the classical approach autonomous universities; academically are thought solid, to be non-hierarchical and creative. In fact, studies that require a multidisciplinary academic environment, universities and there is a close cooperation between formal and non-formal sub-units. Moreover, terms of postmodern management approaches, the requirements specified in the direction of solving the problem of an increasing number of universities in our country is considered to be more difficult. Therefore, considering the psychological impact on the academic personnel the university organizational structure, the study are trying to aim to propose an appropriate model of university organization. In this context, the study sought to answer the question how to have an impact innovation and international integration on the academic achievement of the classical organizational structure. Finally, in the study, due to the adoption of the classical organizational structure of the university, integration is considered to be difficult, academic cooperation between universities at the international level and maintaining it. In addition, it was understood that block the efforts of this organization structure, academic motivation, development and innovation. In this study under these purposes; on the basis of the existing organization and management structure of the universities in the Marmara Region in Turkey, a study was conducted with qualitative research methods. The data have been analyzed using content analysis and assessment was based on the results obtained.

Keywords: university, strategic management, postmodern management approaches, multidisciplinary studies

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Authors: Shohnaza Uzokova Beknazarovna

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This research study provides a comprehensive exploration of the Theory of Media Activity and its relevance as a conceptual framework for journalism education. The author offers a thorough review of existing literature on media activity theory, emphasizing its potential to enhance the understanding of the evolving media landscape and its implications for journalism practice. Through a combination of theoretical analysis and practical examples, the paper elucidates the ways in which the Theory of Media Activity can inform and enrich journalism education, particularly in relation to the interactive and participatory nature of contemporary media. The author presents a compelling argument for the integration of media activity theory into journalism curricula, emphasizing its capacity to equip students with a nuanced understanding of the reciprocal relationship between media producers and consumers. Furthermore, the paper discusses the implications of technological advancements on media production and consumption, highlighting the need for journalism educators to prepare students to navigate and contribute to the future of journalism in a rapidly changing media environment. Overall, this research paper offers valuable insights into the potential benefits of embracing the Theory of Media Activity as a foundational framework for journalism education. Its thorough analysis and practical implications make it a valuable resource for educators, researchers, and practitioners seeking to enhance journalism pedagogy in response to the dynamic nature of contemporary media.

Keywords: theory of media activity, journalism education, media landscape, media production, media consumption, interactive media, participatory media, technological advancements, media producers, media consumers, journalism practice, contemporary media environment, journalism pedagogy, media theory, media studies

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Authors: Lele Zhang, Hui Leng Choo, Alexander Konyukhov, Shuguang Li

Abstract:

Finite Element (FE) model of simplified e-bike structure was generated by main frame with two tiers, which consisted of pipe, mass, beam, and shell elements (pipe 289, beam188, shell 181, shell 281, combin14, link11, mass21). These elements would be introduced and demonstrated using mathematical formulas. Based on coupling theory, constrain equations was proposed. Exporting all the parameters obtained from theory part, the connection stiffness matrix of the whole e-bike structure between each of these elements was detected.

Keywords: coupling theory, stiffness matrix, e-bike, finite element model

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Authors: Mukta Avachat-Shirke

Abstract:

The process of manifestation in art has been studied deeply by various Indian and Western philosophers through times. In the art of painting, ‘Practice’ is always considered as techniques or making and ‘Theory’ is related to intelligence or the ‘conceptual.' The question about the significance of ‘Practice’ in artistic research has been a topic of debate. The aim of this qualitative study is to find the relevance of practice and theory while creating artworks. This study analyzes the thoughts and philosophy of Abhinavgupta, Hegel, and Croce to find a new perspective for looking at practice and theory within artistic research. With the method of grounded theory, the study attempts to establish the importance of both in artistic research. It discusses the issues like stages of creating art, role of tacit knowledge and importance of the decision-making the ability of the artist. This comparative analysis of these three philosophers along with the present systems can be used as a point of reference for further developments in the pedagogy of art research and artists, to understand the psychology and to follow the process of creativity effectively.

Keywords: artistic research, Indian philosophy, practice, Western Philosophy

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Authors: Kim Anema, Matthias Max, Chris Zevenbergen

Abstract:

For any flood risk manager the 'safety paradox' has to be a familiar concept: low probability leads to a sense of safety, which leads to more investments in the area, which leads to higher potential consequences: keeping the aggregated risk (probability*consequences) at the same level. Therefore, it is important to mitigate potential consequences apart from probability. However, when the (perceived) probability is so low that there is no recognizable trend for society to adapt to, addressing the potential consequences will always be the lagging point on the agenda. Preparedness programs fail because of lack of interest and urgency, policy makers are distracted by their day to day business and there's always a more urgent issue to spend the taxpayer's money on. The leading question in this study was how to address the social consequences of flooding in a context of (perceived) low probability. Disruptions of everyday urban life, large or small, can be caused by a variety of (un)expected things - of which flooding is only one possibility. Variability like this is typically addressed with resilience - and we used the concept of Community Resilience as the framework for this study. Drawing on face to face interviews, an extensive questionnaire and publicly available statistical data we explored the 'whole society response' to two recent urban flood events; the Brisbane Floods (AUS) in 2011 and the Dresden Floods (GE) in 2013. In Brisbane, we studied how the societal impacts of the floods were counteracted by both authorities and the public, and in Dresden we were able to validate our findings. A large part of the reactions, both public as institutional, to these two urban flood events were not fuelled by preparedness or proper planning. Instead, more important success factors in counteracting social impacts like demographic changes in neighborhoods and (non-)economic losses were dynamics like community action, flexibility and creativity from authorities, leadership, informal connections and a shared narrative. These proved to be the determining factors for the quality and speed of recovery in both cities. The resilience of the community in Brisbane was good, due to (i) the approachability of (local) authorities, (ii) a big group of ‘secondary victims’ and (iii) clear leadership. All three of these elements were amplified by the use of social media and/ or web 2.0 by both the communities and the authorities involved. The numerous contacts and social connections made through the web were fast, need driven and, in their own way, orderly. Similarly in Dresden large groups of 'unprepared', ad hoc organized citizens managed to work together with authorities in a way that was effective and speeded up recovery. The concept of community resilience is better fitted than 'social adaptation' to deal with the potential consequences of an (im)probable flood. Community resilience is built on capacities and dynamics that are part of everyday life and which can be invested in pre-event to minimize the social impact of urban flooding. Investing in these might even have beneficial trade-offs in other policy fields.

Keywords: community resilience, disaster response, social consequences, preparedness

Procedia PDF Downloads 346