Search results for: Bayesian inverse problems

Authors: Bakur Gulua

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In this work, we consider some boundary value problems for the plate. The plate is the elastic material with voids. The state of plate equilibrium is described by the system of differential equations that is derived from three-dimensional equations of equilibrium of an elastic material with voids (Cowin-Nunziato model) by Vekua's reduction method. Its general solution is represented by means of analytic functions of a complex variable and solutions of Helmholtz equations. The problem is solved analytically by the method of the theory of functions of a complex variable.

Keywords: the elastic material with voids, boundary value problems, Vekua's reduction method, a complex variable

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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Authors: Mahdy ‎Esmailian, Mahdi ‎Doostparast, Ahmad ‎Parsian

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‎In this article‎, ‎sequential order statistics (SOS) censoring type II samples coming from the generalized Pareto distribution are considered‎. ‎Maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the unknown parameters are derived on the basis of the available multiple SOS data‎. ‎Necessary conditions for existence and uniqueness of the derived ML estimates are given‎. Due to complexity in the proposed likelihood function‎, ‎a useful re-parametrization is suggested‎. ‎For illustrative purposes‎, ‎a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted and an illustrative example is analysed‎.

Keywords: bayesian estimation‎, generalized pareto distribution‎, ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎, sequential order statistics

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Authors: Sabrine Ammar, Mohamed Tahar Bhiri

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Automatic planning has a de facto standard language called Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL) for describing planning problems. It aims to formalize the planning problems described by the concept of state space. PDDL-related dynamic analysis tools, namely planners and validators, are insufficient for verifying and validating PDDL descriptions. Indeed, these tools made it possible to detect errors a posteriori by means of test activity. In this paper, we recommend a formal approach coupling the two languages Event-B and PDDL, for automatic planning. Event-B is used for formal modeling by stepwise refinement with mathematical proofs of planning problems. Thus, this paper proposes a refinement strategy allowing to obtain reliable PDDL descriptions from an ultimate Event-B model correct by construction. The ultimate Event-B model, correct by construction which is supposed to be translatable into PDDL, is automatically translated into PDDL using our MDE Event-B2PDDL tool.

Keywords: code generation, event-b, PDDL, refinement strategy, translation rules

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Authors: Leslie M. Gutman

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Conduct problems (CP) represent a major dilemma, with wide-ranging and long-lasting individual and societal impacts. Children experience heterogeneous patterns of conduct problems; based on the age of onset, developmental course and related risk factors from around age 3. Early childhood represents a potential window for intervention efforts aimed at changing the trajectory of early starting conduct problems. Using the UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 17,206 children), this study (a) identifies trajectories of conduct problems from ages 3 to 14 years and (b) assesses the cumulative and interactive effects of individual, family and socioeconomic risk factors from ages 9 months to 14 years. The same factors according to three domains were assessed, including child (i.e., low verbal ability, hyperactivity/inattention, peer problems, emotional problems), family (i.e., single families, parental poor physical and mental health, large family size) and socioeconomic (i.e., low family income, low parental education, unemployment, social housing). A cumulative risk score for the child, family, and socioeconomic domains at each age was calculated. It was then examined how the cumulative risk scores explain variation in the trajectories of conduct problems. Lastly, interactive effects among the different domains of cumulative risk were tested. Using group-based trajectory modeling, four distinct trajectories were found including a ‘low’ problem group and three groups showing childhood-onset conduct problems: ‘school-age onset’; ‘early-onset, desisting’; and ‘early-onset, persisting’. The ‘low’ group (57% of the sample) showed a low probability of conducts problems, close to zero, from 3 to 14 years. The ‘early-onset, desisting’ group (23% of the sample) demonstrated a moderate probability of CP in early childhood, with a decline from 3 to 5 years and a low probability thereafter. The ‘early-onset, persistent’ group (8%) followed a high probability of conduct problems, which declined from 11 years but was close to 70% at 14 years. In the ‘school-age onset’ group, 12% of the sample showed a moderate probability of conduct problems from 3 and 5 years, with a sharp increase by 7 years, increasing to 50% at 14 years. In terms of individual risk, all factors increased the likelihood of being in the childhood-onset groups compared to the ‘low’ group. For cumulative risk, the socioeconomic domain at 9 months and 3 years, the family domain at all ages except 14 years and child domain at all ages were found to differentiate childhood-onset groups from the ‘low’ group. Cumulative risk at 9 months and 3 years did not differentiate between the ‘school-onset’ group and ‘low’ group. Significant interactions were found between the domains for the ‘early-onset, desisting group’ suggesting that low levels of risk in one domain may buffer the effects of high risk in another domain. The implications of these findings for preventive interventions will be highlighted.

Keywords: conduct problems, cumulative risk, developmental trajectories, early childhood, adolescence

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Authors: J. Cabral, C. Barreto Carvalho, C. da Motta, M. Sousa

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Community integration is a construct that an increasing body of research has shown to have a significant impact in well-being and recovery of people with psychiatric problems. However, there are few studies that explore which factors can be associated and predict community integration. Moreover, community integration has been mostly studied in minority groups, and currently literature on the definition and manifestation of community integration in the more general population is scarce. Thus, the current study aims to characterize community integration and explore possible predictor variables in a sample of participants with psychiatric problems (PP, N=183) and a sample of participants from the general population (GP, N=211). Results show that people with psychiatric problems present above average values of community integration, but are significantly lower than their healthy counterparts. It was also possible to observe that community integration does not vary in terms of the socio-demographic characteristics of both groups in this study. Correlation and multiple regression showed that, among several variables that literature present as relevant in the community integration process, only three variables emerged as having the most explanatory value in community integration of both groups: sense of community, basic needs satisfaction and submission. These results also shown that those variables have increased explanatory power in the PP sample, which leads us to emphasize the need to address this issue in future studies and increase the understanding of the factors that can be involved in the promotion of community integration, in order to devise more effective interventions in this field.

Keywords: community integration, mental illness, predictors, psychiatric problems

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Authors: P. Thepnarintra, S. Nikorn

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Agricultural machinery industry plays an important role in the industrial development especially the production industry of the country. There has been continuing development responding to the higher demand of the production. However, the problem in agricultural machinery production still exists. Thus, the purpose of this research is to investigate problems on fundamental factors of industry based on the entrepreneurs’ point of view. The focus was on the small and medium size industry receiving a factory license typed number 0660 from the Department of Industrial Works. The investigation was on the comparison between the management of the small and medium size agricultural industry in 3 provinces in the central region of Thailand. Population in this study consisted of 189 company managers or managing directors, of which 101 were from the small size and 88 were from the medium size industry. The data were analyzed to find percentage, arithmetic mean, and standard deviation with independent sample T-test at the statistical significance .05. The results showed that the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers in the central region of Thailand reported high problems in every aspect. When compared the problems on basic factors in running the business, it was found that there was no difference statistically at .05 in managing of the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers. However, there was a statistically significant difference between the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers on the aspect of policy and services of the government. The problems reported by the small and medium size agricultural machinery manufacturers were the services on public tap water and the problem on politic and stability of the country.

Keywords: agricultural machinery, manufacturers, problems, on running the business

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Authors: Anna Kesoyan

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The present paper deals with the syntax-related problems of translation from English into Armenian. Although Syntax is a part of grammar, syntax-related problems of translation are studied separately during the process of translation. Translation from one language to another is widely accepted as a challenging problem. This becomes even more challenging when the source and target languages are widely different in structure and style, as is the case with English and Armenian. Syntax-related problems of translation from English into Armenian are mainly connected with the syntactical structures of these languages, and particularly, with the word order of the sentence. The word order of the sentence of the Armenian language, which is a synthetic language, is usually characterized as “rather free”, and the word order of the English language, which is an analytical language, is characterized “fixed”. The following research examines the main translation means, particularly, syntactical transformations as the translator has to take real steps while trying to solve certain syntax-related problems. Most of the means of translation are based on the transformation of grammatical components of the sentence, without changing the main information of the text. There are several transformations that occur during translation such as word order of the sentence, transformations of certain grammatical constructions like Infinitive participial construction, Nominative with the Infinitive and Elliptical constructions which have been covered in the following research.

Keywords: elliptical constructions, nominative with the infinitive constructions, fixed and free word order, syntactic structures

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Authors: Muhammad Tayyab Sohail, Li Jiangfeng

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This study aimed at characterizing land cover dynamics for about three decades in capital city of Pakistan Islamabad. The specific objectives were identifying and map the major land cover types in 1993, 2002 and 2014 and check the reduction of greenery and urbanization rate and its some environments aspects. The study showed that overall grasslands decreased in the prescribed period. The key hotspots of these changes were distributed in all directions of the study area, but at different times. Urbanization is increasing every year in this city but the policies for this number of people are not sufficient to meet their living standard requirements. Apart from it, there is also an impact of urbanization on environmental related problems. Underground water is going down and down, traffic related issue and other associated problems are part of this research. Therefore, policies that integrate restoration and conservation of natural ecosystems with enhancement of agricultural productivity are strongly recommended. This will ensure environmental sustainability and socio-economic well-being in the area. Future research needs to address the problems related to urbanization and need to clarify the problems and solve it on high priority.

Keywords: land, Islamabad, water, urban

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Authors: Shuang Luo, Er-Xiang Song

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Many problems in geotechnical engineering, such as foundation deformation, groundwater seepage, seismic wave propagation and geothermal transfer problems, may involve analysis in the ground which can be seen as extending to infinity. To that end, consideration has to be given regarding how to deal with the unbounded domain to be analyzed by using numerical methods, such as finite element method (FEM), finite difference method (FDM) or finite volume method (FVM). A simple artificial boundary approach derived from the analytical solutions for transient radial seepage problems, is introduced. It should be noted, however, that the analytical solutions used to derive the artificial boundary are particular solutions under certain boundary conditions, such as constant hydraulic head at the origin or constant pumping rate of the well. When dealing with unbounded domains with unsteady boundary conditions, a more sophisticated artificial boundary approach to deal with the infinity of the domain is presented. By applying Laplace transforms and introducing some specially defined auxiliary variables, the global artificial boundary conditions (ABCs) are simplified to local ones so that the computational efficiency is enhanced significantly. The introduced two local ABCs are implemented in a finite element computer program so that various seepage problems can be calculated. The two approaches are first verified by the computation of a one-dimensional radial flow problem, and then tentatively applied to more general two-dimensional cylindrical problems and plane problems. Numerical calculations show that the local ABCs can not only give good results for one-dimensional axisymmetric transient flow, but also applicable for more general problems, such as axisymmetric two-dimensional cylindrical problems, and even more general planar two-dimensional flow problems for well doublet and well groups. An important advantage of the latter local boundary is its applicability for seepage under rapidly changing unsteady boundary conditions, and even the computational results on the truncated boundary are usually quite satisfactory. In this aspect, it is superior over the former local boundary. Simulation of relatively long operational time demonstrates to certain extents the numerical stability of the local boundary. The solutions of the two local ABCs are compared with each other and with those obtained by using large element mesh, which proves the satisfactory performance and obvious superiority over the large mesh model.

Keywords: transient seepage, unbounded domain, artificial boundary condition, numerical simulation

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Authors: Medine Demir, Volker John

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Fluid equations in a rotating frame of reference have a broad class of important applications in meteorology and oceanography, especially in the large-scale flows considered in ocean and atmosphere, as well as many physical and industrial applications. The Coriolis and the centripetal forces, resulting from the rotation of the earth, play a crucial role in such systems. For such applications it may be required to solve the system in complex three-dimensional geometries. In recent years, the Navier--Stokes equations in a rotating frame have been investigated in a number of papers using the classical inf-sup stable mixed methods, like Taylor-Hood pairs, to contribute to the analysis and the accurate and efficient numerical simulation. Numerical analysis reveals that these classical methods introduce a pressure-dependent contribution in the velocity error bounds that is proportional to some inverse power of the viscosity. Hence, these methods are optimally convergent but small velocity errors might not be achieved for complicated pressures and small viscosity coefficients. Several approaches have been proposed for improving the pressure-robustness of pairs of finite element spaces. In this contribution, a pressure-robust space discretization of the incompressible Navier--Stokes equations in a rotating frame of reference is considered. The discretization employs divergence-free, $H^1$-conforming mixed finite element methods like Scott--Vogelius pairs. However, this approach might come with a modification of the meshes, like the use of barycentric-refined grids in case of Scott--Vogelius pairs. However, this strategy requires the finite element code to have control on the mesh generator which is not realistic in many engineering applications and might also be in conflict with the solver for the linear system. An error estimate for the velocity is derived that tracks the dependency of the error bound on the coefficients of the problem, in particular on the angular velocity. Numerical examples illustrate the theoretical results. The idea of pressure-robust method could be cast on different types of flow problems which would be considered as future studies. As another future research direction, to avoid a modification of the mesh, one may use a very simple parameter-dependent modification of the Scott-Vogelius element, the pressure-wired Stokes element, such that the inf-sup constant is independent of nearly-singular vertices.

Keywords: navier-stokes equations in a rotating frame of refence, coriolis force, pressure-robust error estimate, scott-vogelius pairs of finite element spaces

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Authors: Sabrina Servot, Annick St-Amand, Michel Rousseau, Valerie Simard, Evelyne Touchette

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Child maltreatment has a profound impact on children’s development. In its victims, internalizing and externalizing problems are highly prevalent, and sleep problems are common. Furthermore, the environment they live in is often disorganized, lacking routine and consistency. In non-maltreated children, several studies documented the important role of sleep regulation and sleep ecology. A poor sleep ecology (e.g., lack of sleep hygiene and bedtime routine, inappropriate sleeping location) may lead to sleep regulation problems (e.g., short sleep duration, nocturnal awakenings), and sleep regulation problems may increase the risk of behavior problems. Therefore, this scoping review aims to map evidence about sleep ecology and sleep regulation and the associations between sleep ecology, sleep regulation, and behavior problems in maltreated preschoolers. Literature from 1993 was searched in PsycInfo, Pubmed, Medline, Eric, and Proquest Dissertations and Theses. Articles and thesis were comprehensively reviewed based upon inclusion/exclusion criteria: 1) it concerns maltreated children aged 1-5 years, and 2) it addresses at least one of the following: sleep ecology, sleep regulation, and/or their associations with behavior problems in maltreated preschoolers. From the 650 studies screened, nine of them were included. Data were charted according to study characteristics, nature of variable documented, measures, analyses performed, and results of each study, then synthesized in a narrative summary. The main results show all included articles were quantitative. Foster children samples were used in four studies, children experienced different types of maltreatment in six studies, while one was specifically about sexually abused children. Regarding sleep ecology, only one study describing maltreated preschoolers’ sleep ecology was found, while seven studies documented sleep regulation. Among these seven studies, 17 different sleep variables (e.g., parasomnia, dyssomnia, total 24-h sleep duration) were used, each study documenting from one to nine of them. Actigraphic measures were employed in three studies, the others used parent-reported questionnaires or sleep diaries. Maltreated children’s sleep was described and/or compared to non-maltreated children’s sleep, or an intervention group, showing mild differences. As for associations between sleep regulation and behavior problems, five studies investigated it and performed correlational or linear regression analyses between sleep and behavior problems, revealing some significant associations. No study was found about associations between sleep ecology and sleep regulation, between sleep ecology and behavior problems, or between these three variables. In conclusion, literature about sleep ecology, sleep regulation, and their associations with behavior problems are far more scarce in maltreated preschoolers than in non-maltreated ones. At present, there is especially a paucity of research about sleep ecology and the association between sleep ecology and sleep regulation in maltreated preschoolers, while studies on non-maltreated children showed sleep ecology plays a major role in sleep regulation. In addition, as sleep regulation is measured in many different ways among the studies, it is difficult to compare their findings. Finally, it seems necessary that research fill these gaps, as recommendations could be made to clinicians working with maltreated preschoolers regarding the use of sleep ecology and sleep regulation as intervention tools.

Keywords: maltreated preschoolers, sleep ecology, sleep regulation, behavior problems

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Authors: Mohamed Idris S. Abozaed, Suliman Mohamed Elrajoubi

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Researches and concerns in power quality gained significant momentum in the field of power electronics systems over the last two decades globally. This sudden increase in the number of concerns over power quality problems is a result of the huge increase in the use of non-linear loads. In this paper, power quality evaluation of some distribution networks at Misurata - Libya has been done using a power quality and energy analyzer (Fluke 437 Series II). The results of this evaluation are used to minimize the problems of power quality. The analysis shows the main power quality problems that exist and the level of awareness of power quality issues with the aim of generating a start point which can be used as guidelines for researchers and end users in the field of power systems.

Keywords: power quality disturbances, power quality evaluation, statistical analysis, electrical distribution networks

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Authors: Chinchira Bunchutrakun

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The purposes of the study are to investigate the problems that the translators encountered when translating English idioms into Thai and study the strategies they applied in solving the problems. The original English version and the Thai translated version of each of two works of fiction were purposively selected for the study. The first was Mr. Maybe, written by Jane Green and translated by Montharat Songphao. The second was The Trials of Tiffany Trott, written by Isabel Wolff and translated by Jitraporn Notoda. Thirty idioms of two translated works of fiction were, then, analyzed. Questionnaires and interviews with the translators of each novel were conducted to obtain the best possible information. The results indicated that the only type of problem that occurred was cultural problems, and these were solved differently by the two translators.

Keywords: translation, idiom translation, fiction translation, problem-solution strategies

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Authors: Kwan U. Kim, Jin Sim, Ryong Jin Jang, Sung Duk Kim

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108 years have passed since a great number of physicists explained astronomical and physical phenomena by solving geodesic equations in Schwarzschild metric. However, when solving the geodesic equations in Schwarzschild metric, they did not correctly solve one branch of the component of space among spatial and temporal components of four-dimensional force and did not come up with physical laws correctly by means of physical analysis from the results obtained by solving the geodesic equations. In addition to it, they did not treat the astronomical and physical phenomena in a physical way based on the correct physical laws obtained from the solution of the geodesic equations in Schwarzschild metric. Therefore, some former scholars mentioned that Einstein’s theoretical basis of general theory of relativity was obscure and incorrect, but they have not given a correct physical solution to the problems. Furthermore, since general theory of relativity has not given a quantitative solution to obscure and incorrect problems, generalization of gravitational theory has not been successfully completed yet although the former scholars thought of it and tried to do it. In order to solve the problems it is necessary to explore the obscure and incorrect problems in general theory of relativity based on the physical laws and to find out the methodology of solving the problems. Therefore, first of all, as the first step for achieving the purpose, the right solution of the geodesic equation in Schwarzschild metric has been presented. Next, the correct physical laws found by making a physical analysis of the results have been presented, the obscure and incorrect problems have been shown and an analysis of them has been made based on the physical laws. In addition, the experimental verification of the physical laws found by us has been made.

Keywords: equivalence principle, general relativity, geometro dynamics, Schwarzschild, Poincaré

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Authors: Roseliza Mat Alipiah, David Raffaelli, J. C. R. Smart

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This research is a new approach as it integrates information from both environmental and social sciences to inform effective management of the wetlands. A three-stage research framework was developed for modelling the drivers and pressures imposed on the wetlands and their impacts to the ecosystem and the local communities. Firstly, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used to predict the probability of anthropogenic activities affecting the delivery of different key wetland ecosystem services under different management scenarios. Secondly, Choice Experiments (CEs) were used to quantify the relative preferences which key wetland stakeholder group (aquaculturists) held for delivery of different levels of these key ecosystem services. Thirdly, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was applied to produce an ordinal ranking of the alternative management scenarios accounting for their impacts upon ecosystem service delivery as perceived through the preferences of the aquaculturists. This integrated ecosystem management approach was applied to a wetland ecosystem in Setiu, Terengganu, Malaysia which currently supports a significant level of aquaculture activities. This research has produced clear guidelines to inform policy makers considering alternative wetland management scenarios: Intensive Aquaculture, Conservation or Ecotourism, in addition to the Status Quo. The findings of this research are as follows: The BBN revealed that current aquaculture activity is likely to have significant impacts on water column nutrient enrichment, but trivial impacts on caged fish biomass, especially under the Intensive Aquaculture scenario. Secondly, the best fitting CE models identified several stakeholder sub-groups for aquaculturists, each with distinct sets of preferences for the delivery of key ecosystem services. Thirdly, the MCDA identified Conservation as the most desirable scenario overall based on ordinal ranking in the eyes of most of the stakeholder sub-groups. Ecotourism and Status Quo scenarios were the next most preferred and Intensive Aquaculture was the least desirable scenario. The methodologies developed through this research provide an opportunity for improving planning and decision making processes that aim to deliver sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in Malaysia.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network (BBN), choice experiments (CE), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), aquaculture

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Authors: Famurewa Olumide Joseph, Akinsulore Adesanmi

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The current study investigated aggressive behaviour and its association with substance use disorder among senior secondary school students in Ilesha, Nigeria. Participants were three hundred and seventy-five (375) comprising (212) females and (163) males of senior secondary school students in Ilesa East and Ilesa West; who were randomly selected among the population of students from the schools. The mean age of the respondents was 14.61 years (S.D = 1.16), with 311 (82.9%) between 14 – 16 years. Female respondents were 212 (56.5%), while male respondents were 163 (43.5%). A cross sectional design was adopted. Three instruments were used for data collection. Buss Perry Aggression Questionnaire, Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) and Drug Abuse Screening Test (DAST). It was hypothesized that aggressive behaviour will be associated with substance use disorder among senior secondary school students in Ilesa East and Ilesa West. The result indicated that the overall prevalence of substance use disorder was 16.0%. Chi-Square test exploring the association between aggressive behaviour and substance use disorder shows that there is a significant association between aggressive behaviour and substance use disorder (χ2 =8.55, p =0.014). Results also showed that emotional problem (χ2 (2) =13.0; p = 0.001) was statistically significant while current medications intake (χ2 (2) =2.03; p =0.362) and overall wellbeing (χ2 (4) =2.49; p =0.646) were not statistically significant. There is an inverse association between prosocial behaviour and aggressive behaviour (r= -0.037, p>0.05). This indicates that as the level of prosocial behaviour increases, the level of aggressive behaviour among respondents decreases. However, alcohol use had no correlation with aggressive behaviour (r=0.070, p>0.05). Among the implications stated is that factors such as emotional symptoms, conduct problems, hyperactivity, peer problem and drug use contributed to the prevalence of aggressive behaviour among students. Suggestions for further studies were equally made.

Keywords: aggressive behaviour, alcohol, prevalence, students, substance use disorder (SUD)

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Authors: Pedro Paulino

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The majority of the world’s population is already living in urban areas and the urban population is expected to keep increasing in the next decades. This exponential increase in urban population carries with it obvious mobility problems. Not only a new paradigm in the transport sector is needed in order to address these problems; effective regulatory policies to ensure the quality of services, passenger rights, competition between operators and consistency of the entire mobile ecosystem are needed as well. The purpose of this paper is to present the problems the world faces in this sector and contribute to their solution. Indeed, our study concludes that only through the active supervision of the markets and the activity of monitoring the various operators will it be possible to develop a sustainable and efficient transport system which meets the needs of a changing world.

Keywords: mobility, regulation policies, sanctioning powers, sustainable transport

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Authors: Abdulbaset Saad, Adel Younis, Zuomin Dong

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For design optimization with high-dimensional expensive problems, an effective and efficient optimization methodology is desired. This work proposes a series of modification to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving computation Intensive Black-Box Problems. The proposed methodology is called Radial Basis Meta-Model Algorithm Assisted Differential Evolutionary (RBF-DE), which is a global optimization algorithm based on the meta-modeling techniques. A meta-modeling assisted DE is proposed to solve computationally expensive optimization problems. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) model is used as a surrogate model to approximate the expensive objective function, while DE employs a mechanism to dynamically select the best performing combination of parameters such as differential rate, cross over probability, and population size. The proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark functions and real life practical applications and problems. The test results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is promising and performs well compared to other optimization algorithms. The proposed algorithm is capable of converging to acceptable and good solutions in terms of accuracy, number of evaluations, and time needed to converge.

Keywords: differential evolution, engineering design, expensive computations, meta-modeling, radial basis function, optimization

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Authors: Nancy Ayman Kamal Mohamed Mehrz

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Like the economies of other countries in the Mediterranean region, the tourism sector in our country has excellent economic prospects. Tourism companies are building tourism, a sector that faces various challenges in its activities. These problems have made business activities and competition between companies difficult. In this study, which was conducted to identify the problems of the tourism sector in the Central Anatolia region, most of the problems faced by the tourism sector and consumer information on consumer rights were used. The aim is to contribute to the awareness of workers and managers working in the tourism sector and to attract the attention of companies and legislators working in the tourism sector. E-tourism is one of the newest issues in the field of tourism. Infrastructure and Information Technology (or ICT) and partner government and tourism organizations are required to achieve this type of tourism. This study measures the views of managers and tourism managers in Leman City regarding e-tourism; In addition, the effect of the literacy level of the tourism management system on tourist attractions was also examined. This research has been carried out. One of the suburbs of Isfahan province. This research is a documentary research and source material that includes literature and surveys. The results obtained show that if managers use ICT, it can help the development of e-tourism in the region, and increasing managers' views about e-tourism and improving their literacy levels can affect the development of tourism.

Keywords: financial problems, the problems of tourism businesses, tourism businesses, internet, marketing, tourism, tourism management economic competitiveness, enhancing competitiveness

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Authors: Lina Wu, Ye Li, Jia Liu

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We are interested in solving Liouville-type problems to explore constancy properties for maps or differential forms on Riemannian manifolds. Geometric structures on manifolds, the existence of constancy properties for maps or differential forms, and energy growth for maps or differential forms are intertwined. In this article, we concentrate on discovery of solutions to Liouville-type problems where manifolds are Euclidean spaces (i.e. flat Riemannian manifolds) and maps become real-valued functions. Liouville-type results of vanishing properties for functions are obtained. The original work in our research findings is to extend the q-energy for a function from finite in L^q space to infinite in non-L^q space by applying p-balanced technique where q = p = 2. Calculation skills such as Hölder's Inequality and Tests for Series have been used to evaluate limits and integrations for function energy. Calculation ideas and computational techniques for solving Liouville-type problems shown in this article, which are utilized in Euclidean spaces, can be universalized as a successful algorithm, which works for both maps and differential forms on Riemannian manifolds. This innovative algorithm has a far-reaching impact on research work of solving Liouville-type problems in the general settings involved with infinite energy. The p-balanced technique in this algorithm provides a clue to success on the road of q-energy extension from finite to infinite.

Keywords: differential forms, holder inequality, Liouville-type problems, p-balanced growth, p-harmonic maps, q-energy growth, tests for series

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Authors: A. Bari

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Integer programming is a branch of mathematical programming techniques in operations research in which some or all of the variables are required to be integer valued. Various cuts have been used to solve these problems. We have also developed cuts known as NAZ cut & A-T cut to solve the integer programming problems. These cuts are used to reduce the feasible region and then reaching the optimal solution in minimum number of steps.

Keywords: Integer Programming, NAZ cut, A-T cut, Cutting plane method

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Authors: Adamu S. Salawu, Ibrahim O. Isah

Abstract:

Direct solution to several forms of fourth-order ordinary differential equations is not easily obtained without first reducing them to a system of first-order equations. Thus, numerical methods are being developed with the underlying techniques in the literature, which seeks to approximate some classes of fourth-order initial value problems with admissible error bounds. Multistep methods present a great advantage of the ease of implementation but with a setback of several functions evaluation for every stage of implementation. However, hybrid methods conventionally show a slightly higher order of truncation for any k-step linear multistep method, with the possibility of obtaining solutions at off mesh points within the interval of solution. In the light of the foregoing, we propose the continuous form of a hybrid multistep method with Chebyshev polynomial as a basis function for the numerical integration of fourth-order initial value problems of ordinary differential equations. The basis function is interpolated and collocated at some points on the interval [0, 2] to yield a system of equations, which is solved to obtain the unknowns of the approximating polynomial. The continuous form obtained, its first and second derivatives are evaluated at carefully chosen points to obtain the proposed block method needed to directly approximate fourth-order initial value problems. The method is analyzed for convergence. Implementation of the method is done by conducting numerical experiments on some test problems. The outcome of the implementation of the method suggests that the method performs well on problems with oscillatory or trigonometric terms since the approximations at several points on the solution domain did not deviate too far from the theoretical solutions. The method also shows better performance compared with an existing hybrid method when implemented on a larger interval of solution.

Keywords: Chebyshev polynomial, collocation, hybrid multistep method, initial value problems, interpolation

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Authors: Hiroshi Yamaguchi, Phillip C. Y. Sheu, Ryo Fujita, Shigeo Tsujii

Abstract:

In this paper, the secure BioSemantic Scheme is presented to bridge biological/biomedical research problems and computational solutions via semantic computing. Due to the diversity of problems in various research fields, the semantic capability description language (SCDL) plays and important role as a common language and generic form for problem formalization. SCDL is expected the essential for future semantic and logical computing in Biosemantic field. We show several example to Biomedical problems in this paper. Moreover, in the coming age of cloud computing, the security problem is considered to be crucial issue and we presented a practical scheme to cope with this problem.

Keywords: biomedical applications, private information retrieval (PIR), semantic capability description language (SCDL), semantic computing

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Authors: Carlos Arias-Alcaide, Cristina Soguero-Ruiz, Paloma Santos-Álvarez, Adrián García-Romero, Inmaculada Mora-Jiménez

Abstract:

Analysing clinical data with computers in such a way that have an impact on the practitioners’ workflow is a challenge nowadays. This paper provides a first approach for monitoring the health status of COVID-19 patients through the use of some biomarkers (blood tests) and the simplest Naïve Bayes classifier. Data of two Spanish hospitals were considered, showing the potential of our approach to estimate reasonable posterior probabilities even some days before the event.

Keywords: Bayesian model, blood biomarkers, classification, health tracing, machine learning, posterior probability

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Authors: Çağan Alevkayali, Şermin Tağil

Abstract:

Determination of soil pH surface distribution in urban areas is substantial for sustainable development. Changes on soil properties occur due to functions on performed in agriculture, industry and other urban functions. Soil pH is important to effect on soil productivity which based on sensitive and complex relation between plant and soil. Furthermore, the spatial variability of soil reaction is necessary to measure the effects of urbanization. The objective of this study was to explore the spatial variation of soil pH quality and the influence factors of human land use on soil Ph around Balikesir City using data for 2015 and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). For this, soil samples were taken from 40 different locations, and collected with the method of "Systematic Random" from the pits at 0-20 cm depths, because anthropologic sourced pollutants accumulate on upper layers of soil. The study area was divided into a grid system with 750 x 750 m. GPS was used to determine sampling locations, and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation technique was used to analyze the spatial distribution of pH in the study area and to predict the variable values of un-exampled places with the help from the values of exampled places. Natural soil acidity and alkalinity depend on interaction between climate, vegetation, and soil geological properties. However, analyzing soil pH is important to indirectly evaluate soil pollution caused by urbanization and industrialization. The result of this study showed that soil pH around the Balikesir City was neutral, in generally, with values were between 6.5 and 7.0. On the other hand, some slight changes were demonstrated around open dump areas and the small industrial sites. The results obtained from this study can be indicator of important soil problems and this data can be used by ecologists, planners and managers to protect soil supplies around the Balikesir City.

Keywords: Balikesir, IDW, GIS, spatial variability, soil pH, urbanization

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Authors: Ayman Baklizi

Abstract:

Based on type II censored data, we consider interval estimation of the quantiles of the two-parameter exponential distribution and the difference between the quantiles of two independent two-parameter exponential distributions. We derive asymptotic intervals, Bayesian, as well as intervals based on the generalized pivot variable. We also include some bootstrap intervals in our comparisons. The performance of these intervals is investigated in terms of their coverage probabilities and expected lengths.

Keywords: asymptotic intervals, Bayes intervals, bootstrap, generalized pivot variables, two-parameter exponential distribution, quantiles

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: Lina E. Homman, Alexis C. Edwards, Seung Bin Cho, Danielle M. Dick, Kenneth S. Kendler

Abstract:

Research supports an association between alcohol problems and internalising symptoms, but the understanding of how the two phenotypes relate to each other is poor. It has been hypothesized that the relationship between the phenotypes is causal; however investigations in regards to direction are inconsistent. Clarity of the relationship between the two phenotypes may be provided by investigating the phenotypes developmental inter-relationships longitudinally. The objective of the study was to investigate a) changes in alcohol problems and internalising symptoms in college students across time and b) the direction of effect of growth between alcohol problems and internalising symptoms from late adolescent to emerging adulthood c) possible gender differences. The present study adds to the knowledge of comorbidity of alcohol problems and internalising symptoms by examining a longitudinal sample of college students and by examining the simultaneous development of the symptoms. A sample of college students is of particular interest as symptoms of both phenotypes often have their onset around this age. A longitudinal sample of college students from a large, urban, public university in the United States was used. Data was collected over a time period of 2 years at 3 time points. Latent growth models were applied to examine growth trajectories. Parallel process growth models were used to assess whether initial level and rate of change of one symptom affected the initial level and rate of change of the second symptom. Possible effects of gender and ethnicity were investigated. Alcohol problems significantly increased over time, whereas internalizing symptoms remained relatively stable. The two phenotypes were significantly correlated in each wave, correlations were stronger among males. Initial level of alcohol problems was significantly positively correlated with initial level of internalising symptoms. Rate of change of alcohol problems positively predicted rate of change of internalising symptoms for females but not for males. Rate of change of internalising symptoms did not predict rate of change of alcohol problems for either gender. Participants of Black and Asian ethnicities indicated significantly lower levels of alcohol problems and a lower increase of internalising symptoms across time, compared to White participants. Participants of Black ethnicity also reported significantly lower levels of internalising symptoms compared to White participants. The present findings provide additional support for a positive relationship between alcohol problems and internalising symptoms in youth. Our findings indicated that both internalising symptoms and alcohol problems increased throughout the sample and that the phenotypes were correlated. The findings mainly implied a bi-directional relationship between the phenotypes in terms of significant associations between initial levels as well as rate of change. No direction of causality was indicated in males but significant results were found in females where alcohol problems acted as the main driver for the comorbidity of alcohol problems and internalising symptoms; alcohol may have more detrimental effects in females than in males. Importantly, our study examined a population-based longitudinal sample of college students, revealing that the observed relationships are not limited to individuals with clinically diagnosed mental health or substance use problems.

Keywords: alcohol, comorbidity, internalising symptoms, longitudinal modelling

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Authors: Thanida Sujarittham, Narumon Emarat, Jintawat Tanamatayarat, Kwan Arayathanitkul, Suchai Nopparatjamjomras

Abstract:

Electric field is an important fundamental concept in electrostatics. In high-school, generally Thai students have already learned about definition of electric field, electric field due to a point charge, and superposition of electric fields due to multiple-point charges. Those are the prerequisite basic knowledge students holding before entrancing universities. In the first-year university level, students will be quickly revised those basic knowledge and will be then introduced to a more complicated topic—electric field due to continuous charged distributions. We initially found that our freshman students, who were from the Faculty of Science and enrolled in the introductory physic course (SCPY 158), often seriously struggled with the basic physics concepts—superposition of electric fields and inverse square law and mathematics being relevant to this topic. These also then resulted on students’ understanding of advanced topics within the course such as Gauss's law, electric potential difference, and capacitance. Therefore, it is very important to determine students' understanding of electric field due to continuous charged distributions. The open-ended question about sketching net electric field vectors from a uniformly charged insulating rod was administered to 260 freshman science students as pre- and post-tests. All of their responses were analyzed and classified into five levels of understandings. To get deep understanding of each level, 30 students were interviewed toward their individual responses. The pre-test result found was that about 90% of students had incorrect understanding. Even after completing the lectures, there were only 26.5% of them could provide correct responses. Up to 50% had confusions and irrelevant ideas. The result implies that teaching methods in Thai high schools may be problematic. In addition for our benefit, these students’ alternative conceptions identified could be used as a guideline for developing the instructional method currently used in the course especially for teaching electrostatics.

Keywords: alternative conceptions, electric field of continuous charged distributions, inverse square law, levels of student understandings, superposition principle

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

Abstract:

This study focuses on early adolescent externalizing behavioral problems which specifically concentrate on rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior using the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). The purpose was to analyze the relationships between the externalizing behavioral problems and relevant background variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 1975 participants. The results indicated that several background variables as predictors could significantly predict rule breaking behavior and aggressive behavior. Further, a hierarchical modeling method was used to explore the causal relations among background variables, breaking behavior variables and aggressive behavior variables.

Keywords: aggressive behavior, breaking behavior, early adolescence, externalizing problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 484