Search results for: healthcare ethical implications 

Authors: Rubaiat S. Ahmed, Jemer Garrido, Sergey M. Motov

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Clinical informatics (CI) enables the transformation of data into a systematic organization that improves the quality of care and the generation of positive health outcomes.Innovative technology through informatics that compiles accurate data on analgesic utilization in the emergency department can enhance pain management in this important clinical setting. We aim to establish a simplified reporting system through CI to examine and assess the analgesic prescribing practices in the EDthrough executing a U.S. federal grant project on opioid reduction initiatives. Queried data points of interest from a level-one trauma ED’s electronic medical records were used to create data sets and develop informational/visual reporting dashboards (on Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets) concerning analgesic usage across several pre-defined parameters and performance metrics using CI. The data was then qualitatively analyzed to evaluate ED analgesic prescribing trends by departmental clinicians and leadership. During a 12-month reporting period (Dec. 1, 2020 – Nov. 30, 2021) for the ongoing project, about 41% of all ED patient visits (N = 91,747) were for pain conditions, of which 81.6% received analgesics in the ED and at discharge (D/C). Of those treated with analgesics, 24.3% received opioids compared to 75.7% receiving opioid alternatives in the ED and at D/C, including non-pharmacological modalities. Demographics showed among patients receiving analgesics, 56.7% were aged between 18-64, 51.8% were male, 51.7% were white, and 66.2% had government funded health insurance. Ninety-one percent of all opioids prescribed were in the ED, with intravenous (IV) morphine, IV fentanyl, and morphine sulfate immediate release (MSIR) tablets accounting for 88.0% of ED dispensed opioids. With 9.3% of all opioids prescribed at D/C, MSIR was dispensed 72.1% of the time. Hydrocodone, oxycodone, and tramadol usage to only 10-15% of the time, and hydromorphone at 0%. Of opioid alternatives, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were utilized 60.3% of the time, 23.5% with local anesthetics and ultrasound-guided nerve blocks, and 7.9% with acetaminophen as the primary non-opioid drug categories prescribed by ED providers. Non-pharmacological analgesia included virtual reality and other modalities. An average of 18.5 ED opioid orders and 1.9 opioid D/C prescriptions per 102.4 daily ED patient visits was observed for the period. Compared to other specialties within our institution, 2.0% of opioid D/C prescriptions are given by ED providers, compared to the national average of 4.8%. Opioid alternatives accounted for 69.7% and 30.3% usage, versus 90.7% and 9.3% for opioids in the ED and D/C, respectively.There is a pressing need for concise, relevant, and reliable clinical data on analgesic utilization for ED providers and leadership to evaluate prescribing practices and make data-driven decisions. Basic computer software can be used to create effective visual reporting dashboards with indicators that convey relevant and timely information in an easy-to-digest manner. We accurately examined our ED's analgesic prescribing practices using CI through dashboard reporting. Such reporting tools can quickly identify key performance indicators and prioritize data to enhance pain management and promote safe prescribing practices in the emergency setting.

Keywords: clinical informatics, dashboards, emergency department, health informatics, healthcare informatics, medical informatics, opioids, pain management, technology

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Authors: Momoka Sunohara, Ashley J. Lemieux, Esther Yakobov, Andrew G. Ryder, Tomas Jurcik

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Immigration brings changes in many aspects of an individual's life, from social support dynamics, to housing and language, as well as difficulties with regards to discrimination, trauma, and loss. Past research has mostly emphasized individual differences in mental health and has neglected the impact of social-ecological context, such as acculturation and ethnic density. Purpose: The present study aimed to assess the relationship between variables associated with social integration such as perceived ethnic density and ways of coping, as well as psychological adjustment in a rapidly growing non-visible minority group of immigrants in Canada. Data: A small subset of an archival data from our previously published study was reanalyzed with additional variables. Data included information from 269 Russian-Speaking immigrants in Montreal, Canada. Method: Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) investigated the relationship between two sets of variables. SAS PROC CANCORR was used to conduct CCA on a set of social integration variables, including ethnic density, discrimination, social support, family functioning, and acculturation, and a set of psychological well-being variables, including distress, depression, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. In addition, canonical redundancy analysis was performed to calculate the proportion of variances of original variables explained by their own canonical variates. Results: Significance tests using Rao’s F statistics indicated that the first two canonical correlations (i.e., r1 = 0.64, r2 = 0.40) were statistically significant (p-value < 0.0001). Additionally, canonical redundancy analysis showed that the first two well-being canonical variates explained separately 62.9% and 12.8% variances of the standardized well-being variables, whereas the first two social integration canonical variates explained separately 14.7% and 16.7% variances of the standardized social integration variables. These results support the selection of the first two canonical correlations. Then, we interpreted the derived canonical variates based on their canonical structure (i.e., correlations with original variables). Two observations can be concluded. First, individuals who have adequate social support, and who, as a family, cope by acquiring social support, mobilizing others and reframing are more likely to have better self-esteem, greater life satisfaction and experience less feelings of depression or distress. Second, individuals who feel discriminated yet rate higher on a mainstream acculturation scale, and who, as a family, cope by acquiring social support, mobilizing others and using spirituality, while using less passive strategies are more likely to have better life satisfaction but also higher degree of depression. Implications: This model may serve to explain the complex interactions that exist between social and emotional adjustment and aid in facilitating the integration of individuals immigrating into new communities. The same group may experience greater depression but paradoxically improved life satisfaction associated with their coping process. Such findings need to be placed in the context of Russian cultural values. For instance, some Russian-speakers may value the expression of negative emotions with significant others during the integration process; this in turn may make negative emotions more salient, but also facilitate a greater sense of family and community connection, as well as life satisfaction.

Keywords: acculturation, ethnic density, mental health, Russian-speaking

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Authors: Olga Kokoulina

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Today, algorithms are assuming a leading role in various areas of decision-making. Prompted by a promise to provide increased economic efficiency and fuel solutions for pressing societal challenges, algorithmic decision-making is often celebrated as an impartial and constructive substitute for human adjudication. But in the face of this implied objectivity and efficiency, the application of algorithms is also marred with mounting concerns about embedded biases, discrimination, and exclusion. In Europe, vigorous debates on risks and adverse implications of algorithmic decision-making largely revolve around the potential of data protection laws to tackle some of the related issues. For example, one of the often-cited venues to mitigate the impact of potentially unfair decision-making practice is a so-called 'right to explanation'. In essence, the overall right is derived from the provisions of the General Data Protection Regulation (‘GDPR’) ensuring the right of data subjects to access and mandating the obligation of data controllers to provide the relevant information about the existence of automated decision-making and meaningful information about the logic involved. Taking corresponding rights and obligations in the context of the specific provision on automated decision-making in the GDPR, the debates mainly focus on efficacy and the exact scope of the 'right to explanation'. In essence, the underlying logic of the argued remedy lies in a transparency imperative. Allowing data subjects to acquire as much knowledge as possible about the decision-making process means empowering individuals to take control of their data and take action. In other words, forewarned is forearmed. The related discussions and debates are ongoing, comprehensive, and, often, heated. However, they are also frequently misguided and isolated: embracing the data protection law as ultimate and sole lenses are often not sufficient. Mandating the disclosure of technical specifications of employed algorithms in the name of transparency for and empowerment of data subjects potentially encroach on the interests and rights of IPR holders, i.e., business entities behind the algorithms. The study aims at pushing the boundaries of the transparency debate beyond the data protection regime. By systematically analysing legal requirements and current judicial practice, it assesses the limits of the transparency requirement and right to access posed by intellectual property law, namely by copyrights and trade secrets. It is asserted that trade secrets, in particular, present an often-insurmountable obstacle for realising the potential of the transparency requirement. In reaching that conclusion, the study explores the limits of protection afforded by the European Trade Secrets Directive and contrasts them with the scope of respective rights and obligations related to data access and portability enshrined in the GDPR. As shown, the far-reaching scope of the protection under trade secrecy is evidenced both through the assessment of its subject matter as well as through the exceptions from such protection. As a way forward, the study scrutinises several possible legislative solutions, such as flexible interpretation of the public interest exception in trade secrets as well as the introduction of the strict liability regime in case of non-transparent decision-making.

Keywords: algorithms, public interest, trade secrets, transparency

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Authors: Andrés Lara Guillén, José M. Soriano Disla, Gemma Castejón Martínez, David Fernández-Gutiérrez

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The worldwide population is exponentially increasing, which causes a rising demand for food, energy and non-renewable resources. These demands must be attended to from a circular economy point of view. Under this approach, the obtention of strategic products from biowaste is crucial for the society to keep the current lifestyle reducing the environmental and social issues linked to the lineal economy. This is the main objective of the VALUEWASTE project. VALUEWASTE is about valorizing urban biowaste into proteins for food and feed and biofertilizers, closing the loop of this waste stream. In order to achieve this objective, the project validates three value chains, which begin with the anaerobic digestion of the biowaste. From the anaerobic digestion, three by-products are obtained: i) methane that is used by microorganisms, which will be transformed into microbial proteins; ii) digestate that is used by black soldier fly, producing insect proteins; and iii) a nutrient-rich effluent, which will be transformed into biofertilizers. VALUEWASTE is an innovative solution, which combines different technologies to valorize entirely the biowaste. However, it is also required to demonstrate that the solution is greener than other traditional technologies (baseline systems). On one hand, the proteins from microorganisms and insects will be compared with other reference protein production systems (gluten, whey and soybean). On the other hand, the biofertilizers will be compared to the production of mineral fertilizers (ammonium sulphate and synthetic struvite). Therefore, the aim of this study is to provide that biowaste valorization can reduce the environmental impacts linked to both traditional proteins manufacturing processes and mineral fertilizers, not only at a pilot-scale but also at an industrial one. In the present study, both baseline system and VALUEWASTE solution are evaluated through the Environmental Life Cycle Assessment (E-LCA). The E-LCA is based on the standards ISO 14040 and 14044. The Environmental Footprint methodology was the one used in this study to evaluate the environmental impacts. The results for the baseline cases show that the food proteins coming from whey have the highest environmental impact on ecosystems compared to the other proteins sources: 7.5 and 15.9 folds higher than soybean and gluten, respectively. Comparing feed soybean and gluten, soybean has an environmental impact on human health 195.1 folds higher. In the case of biofertilizers, synthetic struvite has higher impacts than ammonium sulfate: 15.3 (ecosystems) and 11.8 (human health) fold, respectively. The results shown in the present study will be used as a reference to demonstrate the better environmental performance of the bio-based products obtained through the VALUEWASTE solution. Other originalities that the E-LCA performed in the VALUEWASTE project provides are the diverse direct implications on investment and policies. On one hand, better environmental performance will serve to remove the barriers linked to these kinds of technologies, boosting the investment that is backed by the E-LCA. On the other hand, it will be a germ to design new policies fostering these types of solutions to achieve two of the key targets of the European Community: being self-sustainable and carbon neutral.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biofertilizers, circular economy, nutrients recovery

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Authors: Marina Gold, Yves Jackson, David Parrat

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The high predominance of Latin American migrants in Geneva from countries where Chagas disease is endemic (Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia) is increasing the incidence of chronic Chagas-related problems, especially cardiovascular complications. The precarious migratory status of what are mostly undocumented migrants complicates access to health and affects patients’ and doctors’ health perceptions regarding screening, treatment and monitoring of Chagas-related health concerns. This project results from a 3 year collaboration between the Geneva University Hospital and the NGO Mundo Sano to understand the following questions: 1) how do Latin American migrants perceive their health? 2) What do they understand from Chagas disease? 3) Are patients’ and doctors’ health perceptions similar or do they have competing agendas? This paper aims to present the results of a long-term study that interrogates health perceptions among Latin American migrants in Geneva. The first phase consisted in completing surveys at three community screening events (2016, 2017. 2018), and the results of these surveys reveal the subordination of the importance of health to that of having met economic family obligation. That is, health is important only when it becomes an impediment to economic gain. The contradictory result emerged that people are aware of the importance of health prevention in order to ensure long-term health, but they do not always have agency over their life-style habits (healthy food, regular exercise, emotional stability). The second phase of the research collected open-ended interviews with selected participants, in order to explore in more detail how Latin American migrants deal with Chagas in a different socio-political and economic context to that of endemic countries. These interviews (5 in total) reveal mixed methods of managing health: social networks, access to health care transnationally (in Geneva, Spain and back in their home country), and different valuations of health problems in each situation. The third phase consisted in observations of doctor-patient consultations and further extended interviews with patients to determine doctor/patient health perceptions around Chagas disease. This phase is ongoing, but it has yielded preliminarily observations regarding the expectations that patients’ have of doctors, and the understanding of doctors’ to patients’ complex situations. Positive and complementary health perceptions include patients’ feeling that doctors in Geneva are more understanding, more knowledgeable and less racist than those in their home country, who do not provide detailed information about Chagas or its treatment and discriminate against them for being indigenous or from poor rural areas, enabling a better communication between doctors and patients. Possible conflicting health perceptions include patients addressing their health concerns more holistically and encountering the specialist’s limitations to only treating one health concern, given time limitations and lack of competition with their colleagues (the general practitioner that referred the patient, for example). The implications of this study extend the case of Chagas disease in Geneva and is relevant for all chronic concerns and migratory contexts of precarity.

Keywords: chagas disease, health perceptions, Latin American Migrants, non-endemic countries

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Authors: Sachoiba Inkah

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The Northeast region has not been a major factor in India’s foreign policy calculation since independence. Instead, the region was ignored and marginalized even to the extent of using force and repressive Acts such as AFSPA(Armed Forces Special Powers Act) to suppress the voices of both states and non-state actors. The liberalization of the economy in the 90s in the wake of globalization gave India a new outlook and the Look East Policy (LEP) was a paradigm shift in India’s engagement with the Southeast Asian nations as it seeks to explore the benefits of the ASEAN. The reorienting of India’s foreign policy to ‘Neighborhood First” is attributed to the present political dispensation, which is further widened to include ‘Extended Neighborhood.’ As a result, the Northeastern states have become key players in India’s participation in regional groupings such as SAARC, BIMSTEC, and BCIM. The need for external balancing, diplomacy and development has reset India’s foreign policy priorities as the Northeast states lie in the confluence of South Asia, Southeast and East Asia, and a stakeholder in Act East Policy. The paper will explore the role of Northeastern states in the framework of Indian foreign policy as it shares international boundaries with China, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar and most importantly, study the case of Nagas who are spread across Manipur, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh bordering Myanmar. The Indo-Myanmar border is an area of conflict and various illegal activities such as arms trafficking, illegal migrants, drug, and human trafficking are still being carried out and in order to address this issue, both India and Myanmar need to take into consideration the various communities living across the border. And conflict and insurgency should not be a yardstick to curtailed development of infrastructures such as roads, health facilities, transport, and communication in the contested region. The realities, perceptions, and contentions of the Northeastern states and the different communities living in the border areas need a wider discourse as the region the potential to drive India’s diplomatic relations with its neighbors and extended neighborhood. The methods employed are analytical and more of a descriptive analysis on India’s foreign policy framework with a focus on Nagas in Myanmar, drawing from both primary and secondary sources. Primary sources include official documents, data, and statistics released by various governmental agencies, parliamentary debates, political speeches, press releases, treaties and agreements, historical biographies and organizational policy papers, protocols and procedures of government conferences, regional organization study reports etc. The paper concludes that the recent proactive engagement between India and Myanmar on trade, defense, economic, and infrastructure development are positive signs cementing bilateral ties, but there is not much room for the people-to-people connect, especially for people living in the borderland. The Freedom of Movement Regime that is in place is limited and there is more scope for improvement as people in the borderland looks towards trade and commerce to not only uplift the border economy but also act as a catalyst for robust engagement between the two countries, albeit with more infrastructure such as road, healthcare, education, a tourist hotspot, trade centers, mobile connectivity, etc.

Keywords: foreign policy, infrastructure development, insurgency, people to people connect

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Authors: A. Augustyn, M. Florek, M. Herezniak

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Since the public authorities are constantly pressured by the public opinion to showcase the tangible and measurable results of their efforts, the evaluation of place brand-related activities becomes a necessity. Given the political and social character of place branding process, the legitimization of the branding efforts requires the compliance of the objectives set out in the city brand strategy with the actual needs, expectations, and aspirations of various internal stakeholders. To deliver on the diverse promises, city authorities and brand managers need to translate them into the measurable indicators against which the brand strategy effectiveness will be evaluated. In concert with these observations are the findings from branding and marketing literature with a widespread consensus that places should adopt a more systematic and holistic approach in order to ensure the performance of their brands. However, the measurement of the effectiveness of place branding remains insufficiently explored in theory, even though it is considered a significant step in the process of place brand management. Therefore, the aim of the research presented in the current paper was to collect insights on the nature of effectiveness measurement of city brand strategies and to juxtapose these findings with the theoretical assumptions formed on the basis of the state-of-the-art literature review. To this end, 15 international academic experts (out of 18 initially selected) with affiliation from ten countries (five continents), were individually interviewed. The standardized set of 19 open-ended questions was used for all the interviewees, who had been selected based on their expertise and reputation in the fields of place branding/marketing. Findings were categorized into four modules: (i) conceptualizations of city brand effectiveness, (ii) methodological issues of city brand effectiveness measurement, (iii) the nature of measurement process, (iv) articulation of key performance indicators (KPIs). Within each module, the interviewees offered diverse insights into the subject based on their academic expertise and professional activity as consultants. They proposed that there should be a twofold understanding of effectiveness. The narrow one when it is conceived as the aptitude to achieve specific goals, and the broad one in which city brand effectiveness is seen as an increase in social and economic reality of a place, which in turn poses diverse challenges for the measurement concepts and processes. Moreover, the respondents offered a variety of insights into the methodological issues, particularly about the need for customization and flexibility of the measurement systems, for the employment of interdisciplinary approach to measurement and implications resulting therefrom. Considerable emphasis was put on the inward approach to measurement, namely the necessity to monitor the resident’s evaluation of brand related activities instead of benchmarking cities against the competitive set. Other findings encompass the issues of developing appropriate KPIs for the city brand, managing the measurement process and the inclusion of diverse stakeholders to produce a sound measurement system. Furthermore, the interviewees enumerated the most frequently made mistakes in measurement mainly resulting from the misunderstanding of the nature of city brands. This research was financed by the National Science Centre, Poland, research project no. 2015/19/B/HS4/00380 Towards the categorization of place brand strategy effectiveness indicators – findings from strategic documents of Polish district cities – theoretical and empirical approach.

Keywords: city branding, effectiveness, experts’ insights, measurement

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Authors: Natàlia Garcia Soler, Timothy Moss

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Despite the multiple benefits of sustainable urban drainage, as demonstrated in numerous case studies across the world, urban rainwater harvesting techniques are generally restricted to isolated model projects. The leap from niche to mainstream has, in most cities, proved an elusive goal. Why policies promoting rainwater harvesting are limited in their widespread implementation has seldom been subjected to systematic analysis. Much of the literature on the policy, planning and institutional contexts of these techniques focus either on their potential benefits or on project design, but very rarely on a critical-constructive analysis of past experiences of implementation. Moreover, the vast majority of these contributions are restricted to single-case studies. There is a dearth of knowledge with respect to, firstly, policy implementation processes and, secondly, multi-case analysis. Insights from both, the authors argue, are essential to inform more effective rainwater harvesting in cities in the future. This paper presents preliminary findings from a research project on rainwater harvesting in cities from a social science perspective that is funded by the Swedish Research Foundation (Formas). This project – UrbanRain – is examining the challenges and opportunities of mainstreaming rainwater harvesting in three European cities. The paper addresses two research questions: firstly, what lessons can be learned on suitable policy incentives and planning instruments for rainwater harvesting from a meta-analysis of the relevant international literature and, secondly, how far these lessons are reflected in a study of past and ongoing rainwater harvesting projects in a European forerunner city. This two-tier approach frames the structure of the paper. We present, first, the results of the literature analysis on policy and planning issues of urban rainwater harvesting. Here, we analyze quantitatively and qualitatively the literature of the past 15 years on this topic in terms of thematic focus, issues addressed and key findings and draw conclusions on research gaps, highlighting the need for more studies on implementation factors, actor interests, institutional adaptation and multi-level governance. In a second step we focus in on the experiences of rainwater harvesting in Berlin and present the results of a mapping exercise on a wide variety of projects implemented there over the last 30 years. Here, we develop a typology to characterize the rainwater harvesting projects in terms of policy issues (what problems and goals are targeted), project design (which kind of solutions are envisaged), project implementation (how and when they were implemented), location (whether they are in new or existing urban developments) and actors (which stakeholders are involved and how), paying particular attention to the shifting institutional framework in Berlin. Mapping and categorizing these projects is based on a combination of document analysis and expert interviews. The paper concludes by synthesizing the findings, identifying how far the goals, governance structures and instruments applied in the Berlin projects studied reflect the findings emerging from the meta-analysis of the international literature on policy and planning issues of rainwater harvesting and what implications these findings have for mainstreaming such techniques in future practice.

Keywords: institutional framework, planning, policy, project implementation, urban rainwater management

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Authors: Tim Vollmer, Andrea Greven, Malte Brettel

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Family firms represent the predominant business structure worldwide, accounting for 90 percent of all operational businesses. These firms are essential to society and the economy. In the past decade, family firm exits increased by 72%; and in the next five years, 95,000 German family firms will be sold, acquired, or liquidated. For family firms, socioemotional wealth represents the frame of reference and value to preserve when making decisions. Family firm exits threaten the socioemotional wealth, as in extreme scenarios, economic logic may take over. So, a dilemma arises: Maintaining socioemotional wealth versus pursuing financial wealth. Family firm researchers agree that family involvement leads to specific goals, behaviors, and outcomes. For instance, the desire to protect socioemotional wealth when selling the firm and the focus on particular exit success dimensions, depending on the family's role inside the firm. However, despite the regularity of family firm exits, there is little research on the effect of family involvement on the family firm CEOs' perceived exit performance. We investigate the family firm CEOs' perceived exit performance, which we call exit success. Considering the deficiencies in the literature, we identify two research gaps. First, it remains unclear how family involvement affects the dimensions of exit success. Hence, we provide evidence of which success dimensions matter most depending on the family's involvement and how to differentiate successful from unsuccessful exits. Second, prior work has analyzed family involvement in the socioemotional wealth context but found contradictory findings. This work considers, for example, the family generation in control and identifies the tipping point of economic objectives becoming preferable over socioemotional wealth-related goals. This paper theorizes and empirically investigates, through the lens of socioemotional wealth and conflict theory, how socioemotional wealth mediates the relationship between family involvement and family firms' exit success. We analyze family firms' exit success dimensions of personal financial benefits, personal reputation, employee benefits, and firm mission persistence. Family involvement considers the family firms' heterogeneity in ownership, management, and generation. We use a quantitative approach in the form of an online survey by drawing on 116 responses from former family firm CEOs'. This study highlights that socioemotional wealth mediates the relationship between the dimensions of family involvement and exit success. The greater socioemotional wealth, the greater the family firm CEOs focus on the pro-organizational exit success dimensions of employee benefits and firm mission persistence. In contrast, the self-regarding dimension of personal financial benefits is significantly negatively affected. An important finding is that later generations and the number of family managers involved significantly negatively affect the two pro-organizational dimensions of exit success. Family ownership does not show any significant effect. Our work widens implications for research, theory, and practice by contributing in two meaningful ways. First, our results offer insights to differentiate successful from unsuccessful family firm exits and provide evidence of which success dimensions matter and which to focus on, most dependent on the family's role inside the firm. Second, our article advances research and empirical understanding of family firms and socioemotional wealth by clarifying contradictory findings.

Keywords: exit success, family firm exit, perceived exit performance, socioemotional wealth

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Authors: Hassan Younis

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Purpose: The objective of this study is to review influential papers in the sustainability and supply chain studies domain, leveraging insights from this review to develop a structured framework for academics and researchers. This framework aims to assist scholars in identifying the most impactful publications for their scholarly pursuits. Subsequently, the study will apply and trial the developed framework on selected scholarly articles within the sustainability and supply chain studies domain to evaluate its efficacy, practicality, and reliability. Design/Methodology/Approach: Utilizing the "Publish or Perish" tool, a search was conducted to locate papers incorporating "sustainability" and "supply chain" in their titles. After rigorous filtering steps, a panel of university professors identified five crucial criteria for evaluating research robustness: average yearly citation counts (25%), scholarly contribution (25%), alignment of findings with objectives (15%), methodological rigor (20%), and journal impact factor (15%). These five evaluation criteria are abbreviated as “ACMAJ" framework. Each paper then received a tiered score (1-3) for each criterion, normalized within its category, and summed using weighted averages to calculate a Final Normalized Score (FNS). This systematic approach allows for objective comparison and ranking of the research based on its impact, novelty, rigor, and publication venue. Findings: The study's findings highlight the lack of structured frameworks for assessing influential sustainability research in supply chain management, which often results in a dependence on citation counts. A complete model that incorporates five essential criteria has been suggested as a response. By conducting a methodical trial on specific academic articles in the field of sustainability and supply chain studies, the model demonstrated its effectiveness as a tool for identifying and selecting influential research papers that warrant additional attention. This work aims to fill a significant deficiency in existing techniques by providing a more comprehensive approach to identifying and ranking influential papers in the field. Practical Implications: The developed framework helps scholars identify the most influential sustainability and supply chain publications. Its validation serves the academic community by offering a credible tool and helping researchers, students, and practitioners find and choose influential papers. This approach aids field literature reviews and study suggestions. Analysis of major trends and topics deepens our grasp of this critical study area's changing terrain. Originality/Value: The framework stands as a unique contribution to academia, offering scholars an important and new tool to identify and validate influential publications. Its distinctive capacity to efficiently guide scholars, learners, and professionals in selecting noteworthy publications, coupled with the examination of key patterns and themes, adds depth to our understanding of the evolving landscape in this critical field of study.

Keywords: supply chain management, sustainability, framework, model

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Authors: Fathonah Siti, Ardiana Irma

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Indonesia is currently on its track to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC) by 2019. The program aims to address issues on disintegration in the implementation and coverage of various health insurance schemes and fragmented fund pooling. Family planning service is covered as one of benefit packages under preventive care. However, little has been done to examine how family planning program are appropriately managed across levels of governments and how family planning services are delivered to the end user. The study is performed through focus group discussion to related policy makers and selected programmers at central and district levels. The study is also benefited from relevant studies on family planning in the UHC scheme and other supporting data. The study carefully investigates some programmatic implications when family planning is integrated in the UHC program encompassing the need to recalculate contraceptive logistics for beneficiaries (eligible couple); policy reformulation for contraceptive service provision including supply chain management; establishment of family planning standard of procedure; and a call to update Management Information System. The study confirms that there is a significant increase in the numbers of contraceptive commodities needs to be procured by the government. Holding an assumption that contraceptive prevalence rate and commodities cost will be as expected increasing at 0.5% annually, the government need to allocate almost IDR 5 billion by 2019, excluded fee for service. The government shifts its focus to maintain eligible health facilities under National Population and Family Planning Board networks. By 2019, the government has set strategies to anticipate the provision of family planning services to 45.340 health facilities distributed in 514 districts and 7 thousand sub districts. Clear division of authorities has been established among levels of governments. Three models of contraceptive supply planning have been developed and currently in the process of being institutionalized. Pre service training for family planning services has been piloted in 10 prominent universities. The position of private midwives has been appreciated as part of the system. To ensure the implementation of quality and health expenditure control, family planning standard has been established as a reference to determine set of services required to deliver to the clients properly and types of health facilities to conduct particular family planning services. Recognition to individual status of program participation has been acknowledged in the Family Enumeration since 2015. The data is precisely recorded by name by address for each family and its members. It supplies valuable information to 15.131 Family Planning Field Workers (FPFWs) to provide information and education related to family planning in an attempt to generate demand and maintain the participation of family planning acceptors who are program beneficiaries. Despite overwhelming efforts described above, some obstacles remain. The program experiences poor socialization and yet removes geographical barriers for those living in remote areas. Family planning services provided for this sub population conducted outside the scheme as a complement strategy. However, UHC program has brought remarkable improvement in access and quality of family planning services.

Keywords: beneficiary, family planning services, national population and family planning board, universal health coverage

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Authors: Mir Afzal

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Introduction: Pakistan is a country with an ever-increasing population of largely diverse ethnic, cultural, religious and sectarian divisions. Whereas diversity is seen as a strength in many societies, in Pakistan, it has become a source of conflict and more a weakness than a strength due to lack of understanding and divisions based on ethnic, cultural, political, religious, and sectarian branding. However, amid conflicts and militancy across the country, the rural, mountainous communities in the Northern Areas of Pakistan enjoy not only peace and harmony but also a continuous process of social and economic transformation supported by strong civil society institutions. These community-based institutions have organized the rural, mountainous people of diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds into village organizations, women organizations, and Local Support Organizations engaged in self-help development and peace building in the region. The Study and its Methodology: A qualitative study was conducted in one district of the Northern Pakistan to explore the contributions of the civil society institutions (CSIs) and community-based organizations to uplifting the educational and socio-economic conditions of the people with an ultimate aim of developing a thriving, peaceful and pluralistic society in this mountainous region. The study employed an eclectic set of tools, including interviews, focused group discussions, observations of CSIs’ interventions, and analysis of documents, to generate rich data on the overall role and contributions of CSIs in promoting peace and pluralism in the region. Significance of the Study: Common experiences and empirical studies reveal that such interventions by CSIs have not only contributed to the socio-economic, educational, health and cultural development of these regions but these interventions have really transformed the rural, mountainous people into organized and forward looking communities. However, how such interventions have contributed to promoting pluralism and appreciation for diversity in these regions had been an unexplored but significant area. Therefore this qualitative research study funded by the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan was carried out by the Aga Khan University Institute for Educational Development to explore the role and contributions of CSIs in promoting peace and pluralism and appreciations for diversity in one district of Northern Pakistan which is home to people of different ethnic, religious, cultural and social backgrounds. Findings and Conclusions: The study has a comprehensive list of findings and conclusions covering various aspects of CSIs and their contributions to the transformation and peaceful co-existence of rural communities in the regions. However, this paper discusses only four major contributions of CSIs, namely enhancing economic capacity, community mobilization and organization, increasing access and quality of education, and building partnerships. It also discusses the factors influencing the role of CSIs, the issues, implications, and recommendations for CSIs, policy makers, donors and development agencies, and researchers. The paper concludes that by strengthening strong networks of CSIs and community based organizations, Pakistan will not only uplift its socio-economic attainments but it will also be able to address the critical challenges of terrorism, sectarianism, and other divisions and conflicts in its various regions.

Keywords: civil society, Pakistan, peace, rural

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Authors: Joy Chadwick

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There is no doubt that classrooms of today are more complex and diverse than ever before. Preparing teacher candidates to meet these challenges is essential to ensure the retention of teachers within the profession and to ensure that graduates begin their teaching careers with the knowledge and understanding of how to effectively meet the diversity of students they will encounter. Creating inclusive classrooms requires teachers to have a repertoire of effective instructional skills and strategies. Teachers must also have the mindset to embrace diversity and value the uniqueness of individual students in their care. This qualitative study analyzed teacher candidates' experiences as they completed a fourteen-week teaching practicum while simultaneously completing a university course focused on inclusive pedagogy. The research investigated the challenges and successes teacher candidates had in navigating the translation of theory related to inclusive pedagogy into their teaching practice. Applying threshold concept theory as a framework, the research explored the troublesome concepts, liminal spaces, and transformative experiences as connected to inclusive practices. Threshold concept theory suggests that within all disciplinary fields, there exists particular threshold concepts that serve as gateways or portals into previously inaccessible ways of thinking and practicing. It is in these liminal spaces that conceptual shifts in thinking and understanding and deep learning can occur. The threshold concept framework provided a lens to examine teacher candidate struggles and successes with the inclusive education course content and the application of this content to their practicum experiences. A qualitative research approach was used, which included analyzing twenty-nine course reflective journals and six follow up one-to-one semi structured interviews. The journals and interview transcripts were coded and themed using NVivo software. Threshold concept theory was then applied to the data to uncover the liminal or stuck spaces of learning and the ways in which the teacher candidates navigated those challenging places of teaching. The research also sought to uncover potential transformative shifts in teacher candidate understanding as connected to teaching in an inclusive classroom. The findings suggested that teacher candidates experienced difficulties when they did not feel they had the knowledge, skill, or time to meet the needs of the students in the way they envisioned they should. To navigate the frustration of this thwarted vision, they relied on present and previous course content and experiences, collaborative work with other teacher candidates and their mentor teachers, and a proactive approach to planning for students. Transformational shifts were most evident in their ability to reframe their perceptions of children from a deficit or disability lens to a strength-based belief in the potential of students. It was evident that through their course work and practicum experiences, their beliefs regarding struggling students shifted as they saw the value of embracing neurodiversity, the importance of relationships, and planning for and teaching through a strength-based approach. Research findings have implications for teacher education programs and for understanding threshold concepts theory as connected to practice-based learning experiences.

Keywords: inclusion, inclusive education, liminal space, teacher education, threshold concepts, troublesome knowledge

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Authors: Elena Bellini, Daniele Mugnaini, Michele Boschetto

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People with an Autistic Spectrum Disorder and an Intellectual Disability who need to attend a Hospital Emergency Waiting Room frequently present high levels of discomfort and challenging behaviors due to stress-related hyperarousal, sensory sensitivity, novelty-anxiety, communication and self-regulation difficulties. Increased agitation and acting out also disturb the diagnostic and therapeutic processes, and the emergency room climate. Architectural design disciplines aimed at reducing distress in hospitals or creating autism-friendly environments are called for to find effective answers to this particular need. A growing number of researchers are considering the physical environment as an important point of intervention for people with autism. It has been shown that providing the right setting can help enhance confidence and self-esteem and can have a profound impact on their health and wellbeing. Environmental psychology has evaluated the perceived quality of care, looking at the design of hospital rooms, paths and circulation, waiting rooms, services and devices. Furthermore, many studies have investigated the influence of the hospital environment on patients, in terms of stress-reduction and therapeutic intervention’ speed, but also on health professionals and their work. Several services around the world are organizing autism-friendly hospital environments which involve the architecture and the specific staff training. In Italy, the association Spes contra spem has promoted and published, in 2013, the ‘Chart of disabled people in the hospital’. It stipulates that disabled people should have equal rights to accessible and high-quality care. There are a few Italian examples of therapeutic programmes for autistic people as the Dama project in Milan and the recent experience of Children and Autism Foundation in Pordenone. Careggi’s Emergency Waiting Room in Florence has been built to satisfy this challenge. This project of research comes from a collaboration between the technical staff of Careggi Hospital, the Center for autism PAMAPI and some architects expert in the sensory environment. The methodology of focus group involved architects, psychologists and professionals through a transdisciplinary research, centered on the links between the spatial characteristics and clinical state of people with ASD. The relationship between architectural space and quality of life is studied to pay maximum attention to users’ needs and to support the medical staff in their work by a specific program of training. The result of this research is a sum of criteria used to design the emergency waiting room, that will be illustrated. A protected room, with a clear space design, maximizes comprehension and predictability. The multisensory environment is thought to help sensory integration and relaxation. Visual communication through Ipad allows an anticipated understanding of medical procedures, and a specific technological system supports requests, choices and self-determination in order to fit sensory stimulation to personal preferences, especially for hypo and hypersensitive people. All these characteristics should ensure a better regulation of the arousal, less behavior problems, improving treatment accessibility, safety, and effectiveness. First results about patient-satisfaction levels will be presented.

Keywords: accessibility of care, autism-friendly architecture, personalized therapeutic process, sensory environment

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Authors: L. Matthewman, J. Nowlan

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Background: Holistic or Integrative Psychology emphasizes the interdependence of physiological, spiritual and psychological dynamics. Studying “wholeness and well-being” from a systems perspective combines innovative psychological science interventions with Eastern orientated healing wisdoms and therapies. The literature surrounding holistic/integrative psychology focuses on multi-stage interventions in attempts to enhance the mind-body experiences of well-being for participants. This study proposes a new single stage model as an intervention for UG/PG students, time-constrained workplace employees and managers/leaders for improved well-being and life enhancement. The main research objective was to investigate participants’ experiences of holistic and mindfulness interventions for impact on emotional well-being. The main research question asked was if single stage holistic interventions could impact on psychological well-being. This is of consequence because many people report that a reason for not taking part in mind-body or wellness programmes is that they believe that they do not have sufficient time to engage in such pursuits. Experimental Approach: The study employed a mixed methods pre-test/post-test research design. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and interpretative phenomenological analysis. Purposive sampling methods were employed. An adapted mindfulness measurement questionnaire (MAAS) was administered to 20 volunteer final year UG student participants prior to the single stage intervention and following the intervention. A further post-test longitudinal follow-up took place one week later. Intervention: The single stage model intervention consisted of a half hour session of mindfulness, yoga stretches and head and neck massage in the following sequence: Mindful awareness of the breath, yoga stretches 1, mindfulness of the body, head and neck massage, mindfulness of sounds, yoga stretches 2 and finished with pure awareness mindfulness. Results: The findings on the pre-test indicated key themes concerning: “being largely unaware of feelings”, “overwhelmed with final year exams”, “juggling other priorities” , “not feeling in control”, “stress” and “negative emotional display episodes”. Themes indicated on the post-test included: ‘more aware of self’, ‘in more control’, ‘immediately more alive’ and ‘just happier’ compared to the pre-test. Themes from post-test 2 indicated similar findings to post-test 1 in terms of themes. but on a lesser scale when scored for intensity. Interestingly, the majority of participants reported that they would now seek other similar interventions in the future and would be likely to engage with a multi-stage intervention type on a longer-term basis. Overall, participants reported increased psychological well-being after the single stage intervention. Conclusion: A single stage one-off intervention model can be effective to help towards the wellbeing of final year UG students. There is little indication to suggest that this would not be generalizable to others in different areas of life and business. However this study must be taken with caution due to low participant numbers. Implications: Single stage one-off interventions can be used to enhance peoples’ lives who might not otherwise sign up for a longer multi-stage intervention. In addition, single stage interventions can be utilized to help participants progress onto longer multiple stage interventions. Finally, further research into one stage well-being interventions is encouraged.

Keywords: holistic/integrative psychology, mindfulness, well-being, yoga

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Authors: Bahareh Ansari

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Background: The Open Government Data (OGD) movement in the last decade has encouraged many government organizations around the world to make their data publicly available to advance democratic processes. But current open data platforms have not yet reached to their full potential in supporting all interested parties. To make the data useful and understandable for everyone, scholars suggested that opening the data should be supplemented by visualization. However, different visualizations of the same information can dramatically change an individual’s cognitive and emotional experience in working with the data. This study reviews the data visualization literature to create a list of the methods empirically tested to enhance users’ performance and experience in working with a visualization tool. This list can be used in evaluating the OGD visualization practices and informing the future open data initiatives. Methods: Previous reviews of visualization literature categorized the visualization outcomes into four categories including recall/memorability, insight/comprehension, engagement, and enjoyment. To identify the papers, a search for these outcomes was conducted in the abstract of the publications of top-tier visualization venues including IEEE Transactions for Visualization and Computer Graphics, Computer Graphics, and proceedings of the CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. The search results are complemented with a search in the references of the identified articles, and a search for 'open data visualization,' and 'visualization evaluation' keywords in the IEEE explore and ACM digital libraries. Articles are included if they provide empirical evidence through conducting controlled user experiments, or provide a review of these empirical studies. The qualitative synthesis of the studies focuses on identification and classifying the methods, and the conditions under which they are examined to positively affect the visualization outcomes. Findings: The keyword search yields 760 studies, of which 30 are included after the title/abstract review. The classification of the included articles shows five distinct methods: interactive design, aesthetic (artistic) style, storytelling, decorative elements that do not provide extra information including text, image, and embellishment on the graphs), and animation. Studies on decorative elements show consistency on the positive effects of these elements on user engagement and recall but are less consistent in their examination of the user performance. This inconsistency could be attributable to the particular data type or specific design method used in each study. The interactive design studies are consistent in their findings of the positive effect on the outcomes. Storytelling studies show some inconsistencies regarding the design effect on user engagement, enjoyment, recall, and performance, which could be indicative of the specific conditions required for the use of this method. Last two methods, aesthetics and animation, have been less frequent in the included articles, and provide consistent positive results on some of the outcomes. Implications for e-government: Review of the visualization best-practice methods show that each of these methods is beneficial under specific conditions. By using these methods in a potentially beneficial condition, OGD practices can promote a wide range of individuals to involve and work with the government data and ultimately engage in government policy-making procedures.

Keywords: best practices, data visualization, literature review, open government data

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Authors: Grace E. Santella, Shawn G. Gallaher, Joseph P. Smith

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In order to determine the importance of small-system riverine heat flux on regional landfast sea ice breakup, our study explores the annual spring freshet of the Sagavanirktok River from 2014-2019. Seasonal heat cycling ultimately serves as the driving mechanism behind the freshet; however, as an emerging area of study, the extent to which inland thermodynamics influence coastal tundra geomorphology and connected landfast sea ice has not been extensively investigated in relation to small-scale Arctic river systems. The Sagavanirktok River is a small-to-midsized river system that flows south-to-north on the Alaskan North Slope from the Brooks mountain range to the Beaufort Sea at Prudhoe Bay. Seasonal warming in the spring rapidly melts snow and ice in a northwards progression from the Brooks Range and transitional tundra highlands towards the coast and when coupled with seasonal precipitation, results in a pulsed freshet that propagates through the Sagavanirktok River. The concentrated presence of newly exposed vegetation in the transitional tundra region due to spring melting results in higher absorption of solar radiation due to a lower albedo relative to snow-covered tundra and/or landfast sea ice. This results in spring flood runoff that advances over impermeable early-season permafrost soils with elevated temperatures relative to landfast sea ice and sub-ice flow. We examine the extent to which interannual temporal variability influences the onset and magnitude of river discharge by analyzing field measurements from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) river and meteorological observation sites. Rapid influx of heat to the Arctic Ocean via riverine systems results in a noticeable decay of landfast sea ice independent of ice breakup seaward of the shear zone. Utilizing MODIS imagery from NASA’s Terra satellite, interannual variability of river discharge is visualized, allowing for optical validation that the discharge flow is interacting with landfast sea ice. Thermal erosion experienced by sediment fast ice at the arrival of warm overflow preconditions the ice regime for rapid thawing. We investigate the extent to which interannual heat flux from the Sagavanirktok River’s freshet significantly influences the onset of local landfast sea ice breakup. The early-season warming of atmospheric temperatures is evidenced by the presence of storms which introduce liquid, rather than frozen, precipitation into the system. The resultant decreased albedo of the transitional tundra supports the positive relationship between early-season precipitation events, inland thermodynamic cycling, and degradation of landfast sea ice. Early removal of landfast sea ice increases coastal erosion in these regions and has implications for coastline geomorphology which stress industrial, ecological, and humanitarian infrastructure.

Keywords: Albedo, freshet, landfast sea ice, riverine heat flux, seasonal heat cycling

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Authors: Rosie Cooper, Tracey Chantler, Ellen Pringle, Sadie Bell, Emily Edmundson, Heidi Nielsen, Sheila Roberts, Michael Edelstein, Sandra Mounier Jack

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Introduction: In line with the National Health Service’s (NHS) long-term plan, the NHS is looking to implement more digital health interventions. This study explores a case study in this area: a digital intervention used by NHS Trusts in London to consent adolescents for Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) immunisation. Methods: The electronic consent intervention was implemented in 14 secondary schools in inner city, London. These schools were statistically matched with 14 schools from the same area that were consenting using paper forms. Schools were matched on deprivation and English as an additional language. Consent form return rates and HPV vaccine uptake were compared quantitatively between intervention and matched schools. Data from observations of immunisation sessions and school feedback forms were analysed thematically. Individual and group interviews were undertaken with implementers parents and adolescents and a focus group with adolescents were undertaken and analysed thematically. Results: Twenty-eight schools (14 e-consent schools and 14 paper consent schools) comprising 3219 girls (1733 in paper consent schools and 1486 in e-consent schools) were included in the study. The proportion of pupils eligible for free school meals, with English as an additional language and students' ethnicity profile, was similar between the e-consent and paper consent schools. Return of consent forms was not increased by the implementation of the e-consent intervention. There was no difference in the proportion of pupils that were vaccinated at the scheduled vaccination session between the paper (n=14) and e-consent (n=14) schools (80.6% vs. 81.3%, p=0.93). The transition to using the system was not straightforward, whilst schools and staff understood the potential benefits, they found it difficult to adapt to new ways of working which removed some level or control from schools. Part of the reason for lower consent form return in e-consent schools was that some parents found the intervention difficult to use due to limited access to the internet, finding it hard to open the weblink, language barriers, and in some cases, the system closed a few days prior to sessions. Adolescents also highlighted the potential for e-consent interventions to by-pass their information needs. Discussion: We would advise caution against dismissing the e-consent intervention because it did not achieve its goal of increasing the return of consent forms. Given the problems embedding a news service, it was encouraging that HPV vaccine uptake remained stable. Introducing change requires stakeholders to understand, buy in, and work together with others. Schools and staff understood the potential benefits of using e-consent but found the new ways of working removed some level of control from schools, which they found hard to adapt to, possibly suggesting implementing digital technology will require an embedding process. Conclusion: The future direction of the NHS will require implementation of digital technology. Obtaining electronic consent from parents could help streamline school-based adolescent immunisation programmes. Findings from this study suggest that when implementing new digital technologies, it is important to allow for a period of embedding to enable them to become incorporated in everyday practice.

Keywords: consent, digital, immunisation, prevention

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Authors: Massimiliano Biagini, Marco Spinsanti, Gabriella De Angelis, Sara Tomei, Ilaria Ferlenghi, Maria Scarselli, Alessia Biolchi, Alessandro Muzzi, Brunella Brunelli, Silvana Savino, Marzia M. Giuliani, Isabel Delany, Paolo Costantino, Rino Rappuoli, Vega Masignani, Nathalie Norais

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The gram-negative bacterium Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B (MenB) is an exclusively human pathogen representing the major cause of meningitides and severe sepsis in infants and children but also in young adults. This pathogen is usually present in the 30% of healthy population that act as a reservoir, spreading it through saliva and respiratory fluids during coughing, sneezing, kissing. Among surface-exposed protein components of this diplococcus, factor H binding protein is a lipoprotein proved to be a protective antigen used as a component of the recently licensed Bexsero vaccine. fHbp is a highly variable meningococcal protein: to reflect its remarkable sequence variability, it has been classified in three variants (or two subfamilies), and with poor cross-protection among the different variants. Furthermore, the level of fHbp expression varies significantly among strains, and this has also been considered an important factor for predicting MenB strain susceptibility to anti-fHbp antisera. Different methods have been used to assess fHbp expression on meningococcal strains, however, all these methods use anti-fHbp antibodies, and for this reason, the results are affected by the different affinity that antibodies can have to different antigenic variants. To overcome the limitations of an antibody-based quantification, we developed a quantitative Mass Spectrometry (MS) approach. Selected Reaction Monitoring (SRM) recently emerged as a powerful MS tool for detecting and quantifying proteins in complex mixtures. SRM is based on the targeted detection of ProteoTypicPeptides (PTPs), which are unique signatures of a protein that can be easily detected and quantified by MS. This approach, proven to be highly sensitive, quantitatively accurate and highly reproducible, was used to quantify the absolute amount of fHbp antigen in total extracts derived from 105 clinical isolates, evenly distributed among the three main variant groups and selected to be representative of the fHbp circulating subvariants around the world. We extended the study at the genetic level investigating the correlation between the differential level of expression and polymorphisms present within the genes and their promoter sequences. The implications of fHbp expression on the susceptibility of the strain to killing by anti-fHbp antisera are also presented. To date this is the first comprehensive fHbp expression profiling in a large panel of Neisseria meningitidis clinical isolates driven by an antibody-independent MS-based methodology, opening the door to new applications in vaccine coverage prediction and reinforcing the molecular understanding of released vaccines.

Keywords: quantitative mass spectrometry, Neisseria meningitidis, vaccines, bexsero, molecular epidemiology

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Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

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Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

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Authors: Chang-Hui Shen, Michelle Esposito, Andrew J. Shen, Michael Adejokun, Diana Laterman

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The packaging of DNA into nucleosomes is critical to genomic compaction, yet it can leave gene promoters inaccessible to activator proteins or transcription machinery and thus prevents transcriptional initiation. Both chromatin remodelers and histone acetylases (HATs) are the two main transcription co-activators that can reconfigure chromatin structure for transcriptional activation. Ino80p is the core component of the INO80 remodeling complex. Recently, it was shown that Ino80p dissociates from the yeast INO1 promoter after induction. However, when certain HATs were deleted or mutated, Ino80p accumulated at the promoters during gene activation. This suggests a link between HATs’ presence and Ino80p’s dissociation. However, it has yet to be demonstrated that Ino80p can be acetylated. To determine if Ino80p can be acetylated, wild-type Saccharomyces cerevisiae cells carrying Ino80p engineered with a double FLAG tag (MATa INO80-FLAG his3∆200 leu2∆0 met15∆0 trp1∆63 ura3∆0) were grown to mid log phase, as were non-tagged wild type (WT) (MATa his3∆200 leu2∆0 met15∆0 trp1∆63 ura3∆0) and ino80∆ (MATa ino80∆::TRP1 his3∆200 leu2∆0 met15∆0 trp1∆63 ura3∆0) cells as controls. Cells were harvested, and the cell lysates were subjected to immunoprecipitation (IP) with α-FLAG resin to isolate Ino80p. These eluted IP samples were subjected to SDS-PAGE and Western blot analysis. Subsequently, the blots were probed with the α-FLAG and α-acetyl lysine antibodies, respectively. For the blot probed with α-FLAG, one prominent band was shown in the INO80-FLAG cells, but no band was detected in the IP samples from the WT and ino80∆ cells. For the blot probed with the α-acetyl lysine antibody, we detected acetylated Ino80p in the INO80-FLAG strain while no bands were observed in the control strains. As such, our results showed that Ino80p can be acetylated. This acetylation can explain the co-activator’s recruitment patterns observed in current gene activation models. In yeast INO1, it has been shown that Ino80p is recruited to the promoter during repression, and then dissociates from the promoter once de-repression begins. Histone acetylases, on the other hand, have the opposite pattern of recruitment, as they have an increased presence at the promoter as INO1 de-repression commences. This Ino80p recruitment pattern significantly changes when HAT mutant strains are studied. It was observed that instead of dissociating, Ino80p accumulates at the promoter in the absence of functional HATs, such as Gcn5p or Esa1p, under de-repressing processes. As such, Ino80p acetylation may be required for its proper dissociation from the promoters. The remodelers’ dissociation mechanism may also have a wide range of implications with respect to transcriptional initiation, elongation, or even repression as it allows for increased spatial access to the promoter for the various transcription factors and regulators that need to bind in that region. Our findings here suggest a previously uncharacterized interaction between Ino80p and other co-activators recruited to promoters. As such, further analysis of Ino80p acetylation not only will provide insight into the role of epigenetic modifications in transcriptional activation, but also gives insight into the interactions occurring between co-activators at gene promoters during gene regulation.

Keywords: acetylation, chromatin remodeler, epigenetic modification, Ino80p

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Authors: Abderrahim El Maslouhi

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The paper aims to analyze an often-overlooked dimension of global constitutionalism, which is the rise of the regulatory state and its impact on parliamentary dynamics in transition regimes. In contrast to Majone’s technocratic vision of convergence towards a single regulatory system based on competence and efficiency, national transpositions of regulatory governance and, in general, the relationship to global standards primarily depend upon a number of distinctive parameters. These include policy formation process, speed of change, depth of parliamentary tradition and greater or lesser vulnerability to the normative conditionality of donors, interstate groupings and transnational regulatory bodies. Based on a comparison between three post-Arab Spring countries -Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt, whose constitutions have undergone substantive review in the period 2011-2014- and some European Union state members, the paper intends, first, to assess the degree of permeability to global constitutionalism in different contexts. A noteworthy divide emerges from this comparison. Whereas European constitutions still seem impervious to the lexicon of global constitutionalism, the influence of the latter is obvious in the recently drafted constitutions in Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. This is evidenced by their reference to notions such as ‘governance’, ‘regulators’, ‘accountability’, ‘transparency’, ‘civil society’, and ‘participatory democracy’. Second, the study will provide a contextual account of internal and external rationales underlying the constitutionalization of regulatory governance in the cases examined. Unlike European constitutionalism, where parliamentarism and the tradition of representative government function as a structural mechanism that moderates the de-parliamentarization effect induced by global constitutionalism, Arab constitutional transitions have led to a paradoxical situation; contrary to the public demands for further parliamentarization, the 2011 constitution-makers have opted for a de-parliamentarization pattern. This is particularly reflected in the procedures established by constitutions and regular legislation, to handle the interaction between lawmakers and regulatory bodies. Once the ‘constitutional’ and ‘independent’ nature of these agencies is formally endorsed, the birth of these ‘fourth power’ entities, which are neither elected nor directly responsible to elected officials, will raise the question of their accountability. Third, the paper shows that, even in the three selected countries, the de-parliamentarization intensity is significantly variable. By contrast to the radical stance of the Moroccan and Egyptian constituents who have shown greater concern to shield regulatory bodies from legislatures’ scrutiny, the Tunisian case indicates a certain tendency to provide lawmakers with some essential control instruments (e. g. exclusive appointment power, adversarial discussion of regulators’ annual reports, dismissal power, later held unconstitutional). In sum, the comparison reveals that the transposition of the regulatory state model and, more generally, sensitivity to the legal implications of global conditionality essentially relies on the evolution of real-world power relations at both national and international levels.

Keywords: Arab legislatures, de-parliamentarization, global constitutionalism, normative conditionality, regulatory state

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Authors: Ugo Galvanetto, Pirto G. Pavan, Mirco Zaccariotto

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The discipline of Computer-integrated surgery (CIS) will provide equipment able to improve the efficiency of healthcare systems and, which is more important, clinical results. Surgeons and machines will cooperate in new ways that will extend surgeons’ ability to train, plan and carry out surgery. Patient specific CIS of the brain requires several steps: 1 - Fast generation of brain models. Based on image recognition of MR images and equipped with artificial intelligence, image recognition techniques should differentiate among all brain tissues and segment them. After that, automatic mesh generation should create the mathematical model of the brain in which the various tissues (white matter, grey matter, cerebrospinal fluid …) are clearly located in the correct positions. 2 – Reliable and fast simulation of the surgical process. Computational mechanics will be the crucial aspect of the entire procedure. New algorithms will be used to simulate the mechanical behaviour of cutting through cerebral tissues. 3 – Real time provision of visual and haptic feedback A sophisticated human-machine interface based on ergonomics and psychology will provide the feedback to the surgeon. The present work will address in particular point 2. Modelling the cutting of soft tissue in a structure as complex as the human brain is an extremely challenging problem in computational mechanics. The finite element method (FEM), that accurately represents complex geometries and accounts for material and geometrical nonlinearities, is the most used computational tool to simulate the mechanical response of soft tissues. However, the main drawback of FEM lies in the mechanics theory on which it is based, classical continuum Mechanics, which assumes matter is a continuum with no discontinuity. FEM must resort to complex tools such as pre-defined cohesive zones, external phase-field variables, and demanding remeshing techniques to include discontinuities. However, all approaches to equip FEM computational methods with the capability to describe material separation, such as interface elements with cohesive zone models, X-FEM, element erosion, phase-field, have some drawbacks that make them unsuitable for surgery simulation. Interface elements require a-priori knowledge of crack paths. The use of XFEM in 3D is cumbersome. Element erosion does not conserve mass. The Phase Field approach adopts a diffusive crack model instead of describing true tissue separation typical of surgical procedures. Modelling discontinuities, so difficult when using computational approaches based on classical continuum Mechanics, is instead easy for novel computational methods based on Peridynamics (PD). PD is a non-local theory of mechanics formulated with no use of spatial derivatives. Its governing equations are valid at points or surfaces of discontinuity, and it is, therefore especially suited to describe crack propagation and fragmentation problems. Moreover, PD does not require any criterium to decide the direction of crack propagation or the conditions for crack branching or coalescence; in the PD-based computational methods, cracks develop spontaneously in the way which is the most convenient from an energy point of view. Therefore, in PD computational methods, crack propagation in 3D is as easy as it is in 2D, with a remarkable advantage with respect to all other computational techniques.

Keywords: computational mechanics, peridynamics, finite element, biomechanics

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Authors: Jessica J. Gillies

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Human trafficking is a gross violation of human rights and thus invokes a strong response particularly throughout the global academic community. A longstanding tension throughout academic debate remains the question of a relationship between anti-trafficking policy and sex industry policy. In Australia, over the previous decade, many human trafficking investigations have related to the sexual exploitation of female victims, and convictions in Australia to date have often been for trafficking women from Thailand. Sex industry policy in Australia varies between states, providing a rich contextual landscape in which to explore this relationship. The purpose of this study was to deconstruct how meaning is constructed surrounding human trafficking throughout these supposedly related political discourses in Australia. In order to analyse the discursive construction of the problem of human trafficking in relation to sex industry policy, a discursive analysis was conducted. The methodology of the study was informed by a feminist theoretical framework, and included academic sources and grey literature such as organisational reports and policy statements regarding anti-trafficking initiatives. The scope of grey literature was restricted to Australian and Thai government and non-government organisation texts. The chosen methodology facilitated a qualitative exploration of the influence of feminist discourses over political discourse in this arena. The discursive analysis exposed clusters of active feminist debates interacting with sex industry policy within individual states throughout Australia. Additionally, strongly opposed sex industry perspectives were uncovered within these competing feminist frameworks. While the influence these groups may exert over policy differs, the debate constructs a discursive relationship between human trafficking and sex industry policy. This is problematic because anti-trafficking policy is drawn to some extent from this discursive construction, therefore affecting support services for survivors of human trafficking. The discursive analysis further revealed misalignment between government and non-government priorities, Australian government anti-trafficking policy appears to favour criminal justice priorities; whereas non-government settings preference human rights protections. Criminal justice priorities invoke questions of legitimacy, leading to strict eligibility policy for survivors seeking support following exploitation in the Australian sex industry, undermining women’s agency and human rights. In practice, these two main findings demonstrate a construction of policy that has serious outcomes on typical survivors in Australia following a lived experience of human trafficking for the purpose of sexual exploitation. The discourses constructed by conflicting feminist arguments influence political discourses throughout Australia. The application of a feminist theoretical framework to the discursive analysis of the problem of human trafficking is unique to this study. The study has exposed a longstanding and unresolved feminist debate that has filtered throughout anti-trafficking political discourse. This study illuminates the problematic construction of anti-trafficking policy, and the implications in practice on survivor support services. Australia has received international criticism for the focus on criminal justice rather than human rights throughout anti-trafficking policy discourse. The outcome of this study has the potential to inform future language and constructive conversations contributing to knowledge around how policy effects survivors in the post trafficking experience.

Keywords: Australia, discursive analysis, government, human trafficking, non-government, Thailand

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Authors: Sabrina S. W. Chan, Emily Schwartzman, Nicholas O. Rule

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Past literature showed mixed findings on how smiling affects a person’s chance of getting hired. On one hand, smiling suggests enthusiasm, cooperativeness, and enthusiasm, which can elicit positive impressions. On the other hand, smiling can suggest weaker professionalism or a filler to hide nervousness, which can lower a candidate’s perceived competence. Emotion expressions can also be perceived differently depending on the person’s gender and can activate certain gender stereotypes. Women especially face a double bind with respect to hiring decisions and smiling. Because women are socially expected to smile more, those who do not smile will be considered stereotype incongruent. This becomes a noisy signal to employers and may lower their chance of being hired. However, women’s smiling as a formality may also be an obstacle. They are more likely to put on fake smiles; but if they do, they are also likely to be perceived as inauthentic and over-expressive. This paper sought to investigate how smiling affects hiring decisions, and whether this relationship is moderated by gender. In Study 1, participants were shown a series of smiling and emotionally neutral face images, incorporated into fabricated LinkedIn profiles. Participants were asked to rate how hireable they thought that candidate was. Results showed that participants rated smiling candidates as more hireable than nonsmiling candidates, and that there was no difference in gender. Moreover, individuals who did not study business were more biased in their perceptions than those who did. Since results showed a trending favoritism over female targets, in suspect of desirability bias, a second study was conducted to collect implicit measures behind the decision-making process. In Study 2, a mouse-tracking design was adopted to explore whether participants’ implicit attitudes were different from their explicit responses on hiring. Participants asked to respond whether they would offer an interview to a candidate. Findings from Study 1 was replicated in that smiling candidates received more offers than neutral-faced candidates. Results also showed that female candidates received significantly more offers than male candidates but was associated with higher attractiveness ratings. There were no significant findings in reaction time or change of decisions. However, stronger hesitation was detected for responses made towards neutral targets when participants perceived the given position as masculine, implying a conscious attempt of making situational judgments (e.g., considering candidate’s personality and job fit) to override automatic processing (evaluations based on attractiveness). Future studies would look at how these findings differ for positions which are stereotypically masculine (e.g., surgeons) and stereotypically feminine (e.g., kindergarten teachers). Current findings have strong implications for developing bias-free hiring policies in workplace, especially for organizations who maintain online/hybrid working arrangements in the post-pandemic era. This also bridges the literature gap between face perception and gender discrimination, highlighting how engendered facial cues can affect individual’s career development and organization’s success in diversity and inclusion.

Keywords: engendered facial cues, face perception, gender stereotypes, hiring decisions, smiling, workplace discrimination

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Authors: Lewis Mehl-Madrona, Barbara Mainguy, Patrick McFarlane

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Introduction: There are many risk factors for attempting suicide, including young age, “minority stress,” which would include Transgender and Gender Diverse orientations (TGD). The rate of TGD youths for suicide attempts is 3 times higher than heterosexual cis-gender youth. Half of TGD youth have seriously contemplated taking their own lives; of those, about half attempted suicide; and 18% of the TGD teenagers reported suicidal thoughts linked to their gender identity. Native American TGD have a six times higher suicide attempt rate. Conventional mental health has not generally helped these individuals. Stigma and discrimination contribute to healthcare disparities. Storytelling plays a crucial role in the development of human culture and individual identities. Sharing narrative artwork, creative writing, and personal stories allow people to build trust and to share their vulnerabilities. This helps people become aware of themselves in relation to others and gain a sense of comfort that their stories are similar; they may also be transformed in the process. Art provides a means to reach people who are otherwise difficult to engage in services. Methods: TGD individuals are recruited through a snowballing procedure. Following a life story interview, participants complete a scale of gender dysphoria, identification with conventional masculinity, patient-reported anxiety, and depression measure, and a quality-of-life scale. The interview completes the Columbia Suicide Scale. Following this, an artist and a therapist works with the participant to create a story related to their gender identity using the six-part story method. This story is then rendered to an artists’ book, which combines narrative with art (drawings, collage, computer images, etc.) and can take the form of a graphic novella, a zine, or a comic book. The pages can range from plain to ornate, as can the covers. Participants describe their process of making the books as the work unfolds and then participate in an exit interview at the completion of their book, remarking on what has changed for them and how the process affected them. Results: Preliminary results show high levels of suicidal thoughts among this population, as expected. Participants participate enthusiastically in the life story interview process and in the construction of a story related to gender identity. They enthusiastically participate in the studio process of putting their story into the form of a graphic novel, zine, or comic book. Participants reported feeling more comfortable with their TGD identity after the process and more able to resist negative judgments of family members and society. Suicidal thoughts diminish, and participants reported improved emotional wellbeing. Quantitative analysis of questionnaire data is underway Conclusions: A process in which narrative therapy is combined with art therapy shows promise for attracting and helping TGD individuals to reduce their risk for suicide without the stigma of going for mental health treatment. This process can be done outside of conventional mental health settings, on college and University campuses. This can provide an exciting alternative pathway for minority stressed and stigmatized individuals to engage in reflective, psychotherapeutic work without the trappings of psychotherapy or mental health treatment.

Keywords: minority stress, narrative process, artists' books, life story interview

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Authors: Jim O'brien

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Contemporary global representation and consumption of La Liga across a plethora of media platform outlets has resulted in significant implications for the historical, political and cultural developments which shaped the development of Spanish club football. This has established and reinforced a hierarchy of a small number of teams belonging to or aspiring to belong to a cluster of global elite clubs seeking to imitate the blueprint of the English Premier League in respect of corporate branding and marketing in order to secure a global fan base through success and exposure in La Liga itself and through the Champions League. The synthesis between globalization, global sport and the status of high profile clubs has created radical change within the folkloric iconography of Spanish football. The main focus of this paper is to critically evaluate the consequences of globalization on the rich tapestry at the core of the game’s distinctive history in Spain. The seminal debate underpinning the study considers whether the divergent aspects of globalization have acted as a malevolent force, eroding tradition, causing financial meltdown and reducing much of the fabric of club football to the status of by standers, or have promoted a renaissance of these traditions, securing their legacies through new fans and audiences. The study draws on extensive sources on the history, politics and culture of Spanish football, in both English and Spanish. It also uses primary and archive material derived from interviews and fieldwork undertaken with scholars, media professionals and club representatives in Spain. The paper has four main themes. Firstly, it contextualizes the key historical, political and cultural forces which shaped the landscape of Spanish football from the late nineteenth century. The seminal notions of region, locality and cultural divergence are pivotal to this discourse. The study then considers the relationship between football, ethnicity and identity as a barometer of continuity and change, suggesting that tradition is being reinvented and re-framed to reflect the shifting demographic and societal patterns within the Spanish state. Following on from this, consideration is given to the paradoxical function of ‘El Clasico’ and the dominant duopoly of the FC Barcelona – Real Madrid axis in both eroding tradition in the global nexus of football’s commodification and in protecting historic political rivalries. To most global consumers of La Liga, the mega- spectacle and hyperbole of ‘El Clasico’ is the essence of Spanish football, with cultural misrepresentation and distortion catapulting the event to the global media audience. Finally, the paper examines La Liga as a sporting phenomenon in which elite clubs, cult managers and galacticos serve as commodities on the altar of mass consumption in football’s global entertainment matrix. These processes accentuate a homogenous mosaic of cultural conformity which obscures local, regional and national identities and paradoxically fuses the global with the local to maintain the distinctive hue of La Liga, as witnessed by the extraordinary successes of Athletico Madrid and FC Eibar in recent seasons.

Keywords: Spanish football, globalization, cultural identity, tradition, folklore

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Authors: Yumei Han, Ling Li, Naiqing Song, Xiaoping Yang, Yuping Han

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Educational think tank is agreeably regarded as significant part of a nation’s soft power to promote the scientific and democratic level of educational policy making, and it plays critical role of bridging educational research in higher institutions and educational policy making. This study explores the concept, functions and significance of educational think tank in China, and conceptualizes a three dimensional framework to analyze the approaches of transforming research-based higher institutions into effective educational think tanks to serve educational policy making in the nation wide. Since 2014, the Ministry of Education P.R. China has been promoting the strategy of developing new type of educational think tanks in higher institutions, and such a strategy has been put into the agenda for the 13th Five Year Plan for National Education Development released in 2017.In such context, increasing scholars conduct studies to put forth strategies of promoting the development and transformation of new educational think tanks to serve educational policy making process. Based on literature synthesis, policy text analysis, and analysis of theories about policy making process and relationship between educational research and policy-making, this study constructed a three dimensional conceptual framework to address the following questions: (a) what are the new features of educational think tanks in the new era comparing traditional think tanks, (b) what are the functional objectives of the new educational think tanks, (c) what are the organizational patterns and mechanism of the new educational think tanks, (d) in what approaches traditional research-based higher institutions can be developed or transformed into think tanks to effectively serve the educational policy making process. The authors adopted case study approach on five influential education policy study centers affiliated with top higher institutions in China and applied the three dimensional conceptual framework to analyze their functional objectives, organizational patterns as well as their academic pathways that researchers use to contribute to the development of think tanks to serve education policy making process.Data was mainly collected through interviews with center administrators, leading researchers and academic leaders in the institutions. Findings show that: (a) higher institution based think tanks mainly function for multi-level objectives, providing evidence, theoretical foundations, strategies, or evaluation feedbacks for critical problem solving or policy-making on the national, provincial, and city/county level; (b) higher institution based think tanks organize various types of research programs for different time spans to serve different phases of policy planning, decision making, and policy implementation; (c) in order to transform research-based higher institutions into educational think tanks, the institutions must promote paradigm shift that promotes issue-oriented field studies, large data mining and analysis, empirical studies, and trans-disciplinary research collaborations; and (d) the five cases showed distinguished features in their way of constructing think tanks, and yet they also exposed obstacles and challenges such as independency of the think tanks, the discourse shift from academic papers to consultancy report for policy makers, weakness in empirical research methods, lack of experience in trans-disciplinary collaboration. The authors finally put forth implications for think tank construction in China and abroad.

Keywords: education policy-making, educational research, educational think tank, higher institution

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Authors: LouAnne Boyd

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From the perspective of self-advocates, the biggest unaddressed problem is not the symptoms of an autism spectrum diagnosis but the social stigma that accompanies autism. This societal perspective is in contrast to the focus on the majority of interventions. Autism interventions, and consequently, most innovative technologies for autism, aim to improve deficits that occur within the person. For example, the most common Human-Computer Interaction research projects in assistive technology for autism target social skills from a normative perspective. The premise of the autism technologies is that difficulties occur inside the body, hence, the medical model focuses on ways to improve the ailment within the person. However, other technological approaches to support people with autism do exist. In the realm of Human Computer Interaction, there are other modes of research that provide critique of the medical model. For example, critical design, whose intended audience is industry or other HCI researchers, provides products that are the opposite of interventionist work to bring attention to the misalignment between the lived experience and the societal perception of autism. For example, parodies of interventionist work exist to provoke change, such as a recent project called Facesavr, a face covering that helps allistic adults be more independent in their emotional processing. Additionally, from a critical disability studies’ perspective, assistive technologies perpetuate harmful normalizing behaviors. However, these critical approaches can feel far from the frontline in terms of taking direct action to positively impact end users. From a critical yet more pragmatic perspective, projects such as Counterventions lists ways to reduce the likelihood of perpetuating ableism in interventionist’s work by reflectively analyzing a series of evolving assistive technology projects through a societal lens, thus leveraging the momentum of the evolving ecology of technologies for autism. Therefore, all current paradigms fall short of addressing the largest need—the negative impact of social stigma. The current work introduces a new paradigm for technologies for autism, borrowing from a paradigm introduced two decades ago around changing the narrative related to eating disorders. It is the shift from reprimanding poor habits to celebrating positive aspects of eating. This work repurposes Celebratory Technology for Neurodiversity and intended to reduce social stigma by targeting for the public at large. This presentation will review how requirements were derived from current research on autism social stigma as well as design sessions with autistic adults. Congruence between these two sources revealed three key design implications for technology: provide awareness of the autistic experience; generate acceptance of the neurodivergence; cultivate an appreciation for talents and accomplishments of neurodivergent people. The current pilot work in Celebratory Technology offers a new paradigm for supporting autism by shifting the burden of change from the person with autism to address changing society’s biases at large. Shifting the focus of research outside of the autistic body creates a new space for a design that extends beyond the bodies of a few and calls on all to embrace humanity as a whole.

Keywords: neurodiversity, social stigma, accessibility, inclusion, celebratory technology

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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