Search results for: statistical modelling

Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

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Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. This paper will try to introduce another way of calculating reliability by using R statistical software. R is a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics. It compiles and runs on a wide variety of UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS. The R programming environment is a widely used open source system for statistical analysis and statistical programming. It includes thousands of functions for the implementation of both standard and new statistical methods. R does not limit user only to operation related only to these functions. This program has many benefits over other similar programs: it is free and, as an open source, constantly updated; it has built-in help system; the R language is easy to extend with user-written functions. The significance of the work is calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. Seventy generators were studied. For each one, the number of hours of running time from its first being put into service until fan failure or until the end of the study (whichever came first) was recorded. Dataset consists of two variables: hours and status. Hours show the time of each fan working and status shows the event: 1- failed, 0- censored data. Censored data represent cases when we cannot track the specific case, so it could fail or success. Gaining the result by using R was easy and quick. The program will take into consideration censored data and include this into the results. This is not so easy in hand calculation. For the purpose of the paper results from R program have been compared to hand calculations in two different cases: censored data taken as a failure and censored data taken as a success. In all three cases, results are significantly different. If user decides to use the R for further calculations, it will give more precise results with work on censored data than the hand calculation.

Keywords: censored data, R statistical software, reliability analysis, time to failure

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Authors: Ahasanul Haque, Abdullah Sarwar, Khaliq Ahmed

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Networking is important among students to achieve better understanding. Social networking plays an important role in the education. Realizing its huge potential, various organizations, including institutions of higher learning have moved to the area of social networks to interact with their students especially through Facebook. Therefore, measuring the effectiveness of Facebook as a learning tool has become an area of interest to academicians and researchers. Therefore, this study tried to integrate and propose new theoretical and empirical evidences by linking the western idea of adopting Facebook as an alternative learning platform from a Malaysian perspective. This study, thus, aimed to fill a gap by being among the pioneering research that tries to study the effectiveness of adopting Facebook as a learning platform across other cultural settings, namely Malaysia. Structural equation modelling was employed for data analysis and hypothesis testing. This study findings have provided some insights that would likely affect students’ awareness towards using Facebook as an alternative learning platform in the Malaysian higher learning institutions. At the end, future direction is proposed.

Keywords: Learning Management Tool, social networking, education, Malaysia

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Authors: Sawsan J. Al-Husseini, Talib A. Dosa

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Transformational leadership has been identified as the most important factor affecting innovation and knowledge sharing; it leads to increased goal-directed behavior exhibited by followers and thus to enhanced performance and innovation for the organization. However, there is a lack of models linking transformational leadership, knowledge sharing, and process innovation within higher education (HE) institutions in general within developing countries, particularly in Iraq. This research aims to examine the mediating role of knowledge sharing in the transformational leadership and process innovation relationship. A quantitative approach was taken and 254 usable questionnaires were collected from public HE institutions in Iraq. Structural equation modelling with AMOS 22 was used to analyze the causal relationships among factors. The research found that knowledge sharing plays a pivotal role in the relationship between transformational leadership and process innovation, and that transformational leadership would be ideal in an educational context, promoting knowledge sharing activities and influencing process innovation in the public HE in Iraq. The research has developed some guidelines for researchers as well as leaders and provided evidence to support the use of TL to increase process innovation within HE environment in developing countries, particularly in Iraq.

Keywords: transformational leadership, knowledge sharing, process innovation, structural equation modelling, developing countries

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Authors: Q. Giraud, J. Gonçalvès, B. Paris

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Remediation of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) represents a challenging issue because of their persistent behaviour in the environment. This pilot-scale study investigates, by means of in situ experiments and numerical modelling, the feasibility of the pulsed pumping process of a large amount of a DNAPL in an alluvial aquifer. The main compound of the DNAPL is hexachlorobutadiene, an emerging organic pollutant. A low-permeability keyed enclosure was built at the location of the DNAPL source zone in order to isolate a finite undisturbed volume of soil, and a 3-month pulsed pumping process was applied inside the enclosure to exclusively extract the DNAPL. The water/DNAPL interface elevation at both the pumping and observation wells and the cumulated pumped volume of DNAPL were also recorded. A total volume of about 20m³ of purely DNAPL was recovered since no water was extracted during the process. The three-dimensional and multiphase flow simulator TMVOC was used, and a conceptual model was elaborated and generated with the pre/post-processing tool mView. Numerical model consisted of 10 layers of variable thickness and 5060 grid cells. Numerical simulations reproduce the pulsed pumping process and show an excellent match between simulated, and field data of DNAPL cumulated pumped volume and a reasonable agreement between modelled and observed data for the evolution of the water/DNAPL interface elevations at the two wells. This study offers a new perspective in remediation since DNAPL pumping system optimisation may be performed where a large amount of DNAPL is encountered.

Keywords: dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL), hexachlorobutadiene, in situ pulsed pumping, multiphase flow, numerical modelling, porous media

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Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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Authors: Justin-Herve Noubissi, Jean Claude Kamgang, Eric Ramat, Januarius Asongu, Christophe Cambier

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The goal of our study is to analyse the impact of climatic factors in malaria transmission taking into account migration between Douala and Yaoundé, two cities of Cameroon country. We show how variations of climatic factors such as temperature and relative humidity affect the malaria spread. We propose a meta-population model of the dynamic transmission of malaria that evolves in space and time and that takes into account temperature and relative humidity and the migration between Douala and Yaoundé. We also integrate the variation of environmental factors as events also called mathematical impulsion that can disrupt the model evolution at any time. Our modelling has been done using the Discrete EVents System Specification (DEVS) formalism. Our implementation has been done on Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) that uses DEVS formalism and abstract simulators for coupling models by integrating the concept of DEVS.

Keywords: compartmental models, DEVS, discrete events, meta-population model, VLE

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Authors: M. Pramila Devi, N. V. N. Indra Kiran

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Control charts, predominantly in the form of X-bar chart, are important tools in statistical process control (SPC). They are useful in determining whether a process is behaving as intended or there are some unnatural causes of variation. A process is out of control if a point falls outside the control limits or a series of point’s exhibit an unnatural pattern. In this paper, a study is carried out on four training algorithms for CCPs recognition. For those algorithms optimal structure is identified and then they are studied for type I and type II errors for generalization without early stopping and with early stopping and the best one is proposed.

Keywords: control chart pattern recognition, neural network, backpropagation, generalization, early stopping

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Authors: Stanislav Babaev, Vladimir Cuk, Sjef Cobben, Jan Desmet

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The procedures for performing harmonic studies for medium-voltage distribution feeders have become relatively mature topics since the early 1980s. The efforts of various electric power engineers and researchers were mainly focused on handling large harmonic non-linear loads connected scarcely at several buses of medium-voltage feeders. In order to assess the impact of these loads on the voltage quality of the distribution system, specific modeling and simulation strategies were proposed. These methodologies could deliver a reasonable estimation accuracy given the requirements of least computational efforts and reduced complexity. To uphold these requirements, certain analysis assumptions have been made, which became de facto standards for establishing guidelines for harmonic analysis. Among others, typical assumptions include balanced conditions of the study and the negligible impact of impedance frequency characteristics of various power system components. In latter, skin and proximity effects are usually omitted, and resistance and reactance values are modeled based on the theoretical equations. Further, the simplifications of the modelling routine have led to the commonly accepted practice of neglecting phase angle diversity effects. This is mainly associated with developed load models, which only in a handful of cases are representing the complete harmonic behavior of a certain device as well as accounting on the harmonic interaction between grid harmonic voltages and harmonic currents. While these modelling practices were proven to be reasonably effective for medium-voltage levels, similar approaches have been adopted for low-voltage distribution systems. Given modern conditions and massive increase in usage of residential electronic devices, recent and ongoing boom of electric vehicles, and large-scale installing of distributed solar power, the harmonics in current low-voltage grids are characterized by high degree of variability and demonstrate sufficient diversity leading to a certain level of cancellation effects. It is obvious, that new modelling algorithms overcoming previously made assumptions have to be accepted. In this work, a simulation approach aimed to deal with some of the typical assumptions is proposed. A practical low-voltage feeder is modeled in PowerFactory. In order to demonstrate the importance of diversity effect and harmonic interaction, previously developed measurement-based models of photovoltaic inverter and battery charger are used as loads. The Python-based script aiming to supply varying voltage background distortion profile and the associated current harmonic response of loads is used as the core of unbalanced simulation. Furthermore, the impact of uncertainty of feeder frequency-impedance characteristics on total harmonic distortion levels is shown along with scenarios involving linear resistive loads, which further alter the impedance of the system. The comparative analysis demonstrates sufficient differences with cases when all the assumptions are in place, and results indicate that new modelling and simulation procedures need to be adopted for low-voltage distribution systems with high penetration of non-linear loads and renewable generation.

Keywords: electric power system, harmonic distortion, power quality, public low-voltage network, harmonic modelling

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Authors: Baohua Yu

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Despite widely reported 'Mainland-Hong Kong conflicts', recent years have witnessed progressive growth in the numbers of Mainland Chinese students in Hong Kong’s universities. This research investigated Mainland Chinese students’ intercultural communication in relation to cross-cultural adaptation in a major university in Hong Kong. The features of intercultural communication examined in this study were competence in the second language (L2) communication and L2 Willingness to Communicate (WTC), while the features of cross-cultural adaptation examined were socio-cultural, psychological and academic adaptation. Based on a questionnaire, structural equation modelling was conducted among a sample of 196 Mainland Chinese students. Results showed that the competence in L2 communication played a significant role in L2 WTC, which had an influential effect on academic adaptation, which was itself identified as a mediator between the psychological adaptation and socio-cultural adaptation. Implications for curriculum design for courses and instructional practice on international students are discussed.

Keywords: L2 willingness to communicate, competence in L2 communication, psychological adaptation, socio-cultural adaptation, academic adaptation, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Rabia Waseem, Low Kah Hin, Najihah Mohamed Hashim

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The variability in the chemical components of the Syzygium species essential oils has been evaluated. The leaves of Syzygium species have been collected from Perak, Malaysia. The essential oils extracted by using the conventional Hydro-distillation extraction procedure and analyzed by using Gas chromatography System attached with Mass Spectrometry (GCMS). Twenty-seven constituents were found in Syzygium species in which the major constituents include: α-Pinene (3.94%), α-Thujene (2.16%), α-Terpineol (2.95%), g-Elemene (2.89%) and D-Limonene (14.59%). The aim of this study was the comparison between the evaluated data and existing literature to fortify the major variability through statistical analysis.

Keywords: chemotaxonomy, cluster analysis, essential oil, medicinal plants, statistical analysis

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Authors: Tamanna Goyal, Divya Bansal, Sanjeev Sofat

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In world-threatening terrorist attacks, where early detection, distinction, and prediction are effective diagnosis techniques and for functionally accurate and precise analysis of terrorism data, there are so many data mining & statistical approaches to assure accuracy. The computational extraction of derived patterns is a non-trivial task which comprises specific domain discovery by means of sophisticated algorithm design and analysis. This paper proposes an approach for similarity extraction by obtaining the useful attributes from the available datasets of terrorist attacks and then applying feature selection technique based on the statistical impurity measures followed by clustering techniques on the basis of similarity measures. On the basis of degree of participation of attributes in the rules, the associative dependencies between the attacks are analyzed. Consequently, to compute the similarity among the discovered rules, we applied a weighted similarity measure. Finally, the rules are grouped by applying using hierarchical clustering. We have applied it to an open source dataset to determine the usability and efficiency of our technique, and a literature search is also accomplished to support the efficiency and accuracy of our results.

Keywords: association rules, clustering, similarity measure, statistical approaches

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Authors: Wi-Sun Ryu, Eun-Kee Bae

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Prior studies have shown that patients with right hemispheric stroke are likely to seek medical service compared with those with left hemispheric stroke. However, the underlying mechanism for this phenomenon is unknown. In the present study, we generated lesion probability maps in a patient with right and left middle cerebral artery infarct and statistically compared. We found that precentral gyrus-Brodmann area 44, a language area in the left hemisphere - involvement was significantly higher in patients with left hemispheric stroke. This finding suggests that a language dysfunction was more noticeable, thereby taking more patients to hospitals.

Keywords: cerebral infarct, brain MRI, statistical parametric mapping, middle cerebral infarct

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Authors: Contimi Kenfack Mouafo, Sebastian Klick

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In the rural and remote areas of Cameroon, access to electricity is very limited since most of the population is not connected to the main utility grid. Throughout the country, efforts are underway to not only expand the utility grid to these regions but also to provide reliable off-grid access to electricity. The Cameroonian company Solahydrowatt is currently working on the design and planning of one of the first hybrid solar-hydropower plants of Cameroon in Fotetsa, in the western region of the country, to provide the population with reliable access to electricity. This paper models and proposes a design for the low-voltage network with a hybrid solar-hydropower plant in Fotetsa. The modelling takes into consideration the voltage compliance of the distribution network, the maximum load of operating equipment, and most importantly, the ability for the network to operate as an off-grid system. The resulting modelled distribution network does not only comply with the Cameroonian voltage deviation standard, but it is also capable of being operated as a stand-alone network independent of the main utility grid.

Keywords: Cameroon, rural electrification, hybrid solar-hydro, off-grid electricity supply, network simulation

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Authors: P. V. S. Mascarenhas, B. C. P. Albuquerque, D. J. F. Campos, L. L. Almeida, V. R. Domingues, L. C. S. M. Ozelim

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Retaining slope structures are increasingly considered in geotechnical engineering projects due to extensive urban cities growth. These kinds of engineering constructions may present instabilities over the time and may require reinforcement or even rebuilding of the structure. In this context, statistical analysis is an important tool for decision making regarding retaining structures. This study approaches the failure probability of the construction of a retaining wall over the debris of an old and collapsed one. The new solution’s extension length will be of approximately 350 m and will be located over the margins of the Lake Paranoá, Brasilia, in the capital of Brazil. The building process must also account for the utilization of the ruins as a caisson. A series of in situ and laboratory experiments defined local soil strength parameters. A Standard Penetration Test (SPT) defined the in situ soil stratigraphy. Also, the parameters obtained were verified using soil data from a collection of masters and doctoral works from the University of Brasília, which is similar to the local soil. Initial studies show that the concrete wall is the proper solution for this case, taking into account the technical, economic and deterministic analysis. On the other hand, in order to better analyze the statistical significance of the factor-of-safety factors obtained, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed for the concrete wall and two more initial solutions. A comparison between the statistical and risk results generated for the different solutions indicated that a Gabion solution would better fit the financial and technical feasibility of the project.

Keywords: economical analysis, probability of failure, retaining walls, statistical analysis

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Authors: Melike Sultan Karasu Asnaz, Ayse Ozdogan Dolcek

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Crop drying, which aims to reduce the moisture content to a certain level, is a method used to extend the shelf life and prevent it from spoiling. One of the oldest food preservation techniques is open sunor shade drying. Even though this technique is the most affordable of all drying methods, there are some drawbacks such as contamination by insects, environmental pollution, windborne dust, and direct expose to weather conditions such as wind, rain, hail. However, solar dryers that provide a hygienic and controllable environment to preserve food and extend its shelf life have been developed and used to dry agricultural products. Thus, foods can be dried quickly without being affected by weather variables, and quality products can be obtained. This research is mainly devoted to investigating the modelling of drying kinetics of cantaloupe in a forced convection solar dryer. Mathematical models for the drying process should be defined to simulate the drying behavior of the foodstuff, which will greatly contribute to the development of solar dryer designs. Thus, drying experiments were conducted and replicated five times, and various data such as temperature, relative humidity, solar irradiation, drying air speed, and weight were instantly monitored and recorded. Moisture content of sliced and pretreated cantaloupe were converted into moisture ratio and then fitted against drying time for constructing drying curves. Then, 10 quasi-theoretical and empirical drying models were applied to find the best drying curve equation according to the Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear optimization method. The best fitted mathematical drying model was selected according to the highest coefficient of determination (R²), and the mean square of the deviations (χ^²) and root mean square error (RMSE) criterial. The best fitted model was utilized to simulate a thin layer solar drying of cantaloupe, and the simulation results were compared with the experimental data for validation purposes.

Keywords: solar dryer, mathematical modelling, drying kinetics, cantaloupe drying

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Authors: M. Ntšolo, D. Kalumba, N. Lefu, G. Letlatsa

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Rock mass damage due to shear tectonic activity has been investigated largely in geoscience where fluid transport is of major interest. However, little has been studied on the effect of shear zones on rock mass behavior and its impact on stability of rock slopes. At Letšeng Diamonds open pit mine in Lesotho, the shear zone composed of sheared kimberlite material, calcite and altered basalt is forming part of the haul ramp into the main pit cut 3. The alarming rate at which the shear zone is deteriorating has triggered concerns about both local and global stability of pit the walls. This study presents the numerical modelling of the open pit slope affected by shear zone at Letšeng Diamond Mine (LDM). Analysis of the slope involved development of the slope model by using a two-dimensional finite element code RS2. Interfaces between shear zone and host rock were represented by special joint elements incorporated in the finite element code. The analysis of structural geological mapping data provided a good platform to understand the joint network. Major joints including shear zone were incorporated into the model for simulation. This approach proved successful by demonstrating that continuum modelling can be used to evaluate evolution of stresses, strain, plastic yielding and failure mechanisms that are consistent with field observations. Structural control due to geological shear zone structure proved to be important in its location, size and orientation. Furthermore, the model analyzed slope deformation and sliding possibility along shear zone interfaces. This type of approach can predict shear zone deformation and failure mechanism, hence mitigation strategies can be deployed for safety of human lives and property within mine pits.

Keywords: numerical modeling, open pit mine, shear zone, slope stability

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Authors: Oseni Taiwo Amoo, Bloodless Dzwairo

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In this paper, we extend the versatility and usefulness of GIS as a methodology for any river basin hydrologic characteristics analysis (HCA). The Gurara River basin located in North-Central Nigeria is presented in this study. It is an on-going research using spatial Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Arc-Hydro tools to take inventory of the basin characteristics in order to predict water abstraction quantification on streamflow regime. One of the main concerns of hydrological modelling is the quantification of runoff from rainstorm events. In practice, the soil conservation service curve (SCS) method and the Conventional procedure called rational technique are still generally used these traditional hydrological lumped models convert statistical properties of rainfall in river basin to observed runoff and hydrograph. However, the models give little or no information about spatially dispersed information on rainfall and basin physical characteristics. Therefore, this paper synthesizes morphometric parameters in generating runoff. The expected results of the basin characteristics such as size, area, shape, slope of the watershed and stream distribution network analysis could be useful in estimating streamflow discharge. Water resources managers and irrigation farmers could utilize the tool for determining net return from available scarce water resources, where past data records are sparse for the aspect of land and climate.

Keywords: hydrological characteristic, stream flow, runoff discharge, land and climate

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Authors: Said Benkaciali, Mourad Haddadi, Abdallah Khellaf, Kacem Gairaa, Mawloud Guermoui

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In this study, many experiments were carried out to assess the influence of the input parameters on the performance of multilayer perceptron which is one the configuration of the artificial neural networks. To estimate the daily global solar radiation on the horizontal surface, we have developed some models by using seven combinations of twelve meteorological and geographical input parameters collected from a radiometric station installed at Ghardaïa city (southern of Algeria). For selecting of best combination which provides a good accuracy, six statistical formulas (or statistical indicators) have been evaluated, such as the root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, correlation coefficient, and determination coefficient. We noted that multilayer perceptron techniques have the best performance, except when the sunshine duration parameter is not included in the input variables. The maximum of determination coefficient and correlation coefficient are equal to 98.20 and 99.11%. On the other hand, some empirical models were developed to compare their performances with those of multilayer perceptron neural networks. Results obtained show that the neural networks techniques give the best performance compared to the empirical models.

Keywords: empirical models, multilayer perceptron neural network, solar radiation, statistical formulas

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Authors: Ritu Ahuja

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Globally the built environment sector is striving to be highly efficient, quality-centred and socially-responsible. Built environment sector is an integral part of the economy and plays an important role in urbanization, industrialization and improved quality of living. The inherent challenges such as excessive material and process waste, over reliance on resources, energy usage, and carbon footprint need to be addressed in order to meet the needs of the economy. It is envisioned that these challenges can be resolved by integration of Lean-Green-Building Information Modelling (BIM) paradigms. Ipso facto, with BIM as a catalyst, this research identifies the operational and tactical connections of lean and green philosophies by providing a conceptual integration framework and underpinning theories. The research has developed a framework for BIM-based organizational capabilities for enhanced adoption and effective use of BIM within architectural organizations. The study was conducted through a sequential mixed method approach focusing on collecting and analyzing both qualitative and quantitative data. The framework developed as part of this study will enable architectural organizations to successfully embrace BIM on projects and gain lean and green benefits.

Keywords: BIM, lean, green, AEC organizations

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Authors: Peña A. Roland R., Lozano P. Jean P.

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The waterflooding process is an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) method that appears tremendously successful. This paper shows the importance of the role of the numerical modelling of waterflooding and how to provide a better description of the fluid flow during this process. The mathematical model is based on the mass conservation equations for the oil and water phases. Rock compressibility and capillary pressure equations are coupled to the mathematical model. For discretizing and linearizing the partial differential equations, we used the Finite Volume technique and the Newton-Raphson method, respectively. The results of three scenarios for waterflooding in porous media are shown. The first scenario was estimating the water saturation in the media without rock compressibility and without capillary pressure. The second scenario was estimating the front of the water considering the rock compressibility and capillary pressure. The third case is to compare different fronts of water saturation for three fluids viscosity ratios without and with rock compressibility and without and with capillary pressure. Results of the simulation indicate that the rock compressibility and the capillary pressure produce changes in the pressure profile and saturation profile during the displacement of the oil for the water.

Keywords: capillary pressure, numerical simulation, rock compressibility, two-phase flow

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Authors: Yahya Lavafpour, Steve Sharples

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This study investigated the potential negative impacts of future UK climate change on dwellings. In particular, the risk of overheating was considered for a Passivhaus dwelling in London. The study used dynamic simulation modelling software to investigate the potential use of building geometry to control current and future overheating risks in the dwelling for London climate. Specifically, the focus was on the optimum inclination of a south façade to make use of the building’s shape to self-protect itself. A range of different inclined façades were examined to test their effectiveness in reducing the overheating risk. The research found that implementing a 115° tilted façade could completely eliminate the risk of overheating in current climate, but with some consequence for natural ventilation and daylighting. Future overheating was significantly reduced by the tilted façade. However, geometric considerations could not eradicate completely the risk of overheating particularly by the 2080s. The study also used CFD modelling and sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the façade geometry on the wind pressure distributions on and around the building surface. This was done to assess natural ventilation flows for alternative façade inclinations.

Keywords: climate change, tilt façade, thermal comfort, passivhaus, overheating

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Authors: Assaad Ghazouani, Hedia Teraoui

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The purpose of this article is to try to see if the FDI actually contributes to technology transfer in Tunisia or are there other sources that can guarantee this transfer? The answer to this problem was gradual as we followed an approach using economic theory, the reality of Tunisia and econometric and statistical tools. We examined the relationship between technology transfer and FDI in Tunisia over a period of 40 years from 1970 to 2010. We estimated in two stages: first, a growth equation, then we have learned from this regression residue (proxy technology), secondly, we regressed on European FDI, exports of manufactures, imports of goods from the European Union in addition to other variables to test the robustness of the results and describing the level of infrastructure in the country. It follows from our study that technology transfer does not originate primarily and exclusively in the FDI and the latter is econometrically weakly with technology transfer and spill over effect of FDI does not seem to occur according to our results. However, the relationship between technology transfer and imports is negative and significant. Although this result is cons-intuitive, is recurrent in the literature of panel data. It has also given rise to intense debate on the microeconomic modelling as well as on the empirical applications. Technology transfer through trade or foreign investment has become a catalyst for growth recognized by numerous empirical studies in particular. However, the relationship technology transfer FDI is more complex than it appears. This complexity is due, primarily, but not exclusively to the close link between FDI and the characteristics of the host country. This is essentially the host's responsibility to establish general conditions, transparent and conducive to investment, and to strengthen human and institutional capacity necessary for foreign capital flows that can have real effects on growth.

Keywords: technology transfer, foreign direct investment, economics, finance

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Authors: Man Singh Meena

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Structural engineers are facing different kind of challenges due to innovative & bold ideas of architects who are trying to design every structure with uniqueness. In RCC frame structures different geometry of columns can be used in design and rectangular columns can be placed with different type orientation. The analysis is design of structures can also be carried out by different type of software available i.e., STAAD Pro, ETABS and TEKLA. In recent times high-rise building modeling & analysis is done by ETABS due to its certain features which are superior to other software. The case study in this paper mainly emphasizes on structural behavior of high rise building for different column shape configurations like Circular, Square, Rectangular and Rectangular with 90-degree Rotation and rectangular shape plan. In all these column shapes the areas of columns are kept same to study the effect on design of concrete area is same. Modelling of 20-storeys R.C.C. framed building is done on the ETABS software for analysis. Post analysis of the structure, maximum bending moments, shear forces and maximum longitudinal reinforcement are computed and compared for three different story structures to identify the effectiveness of geometry of column.

Keywords: high-rise building, column geometry, building modelling, ETABS analysis, building design, structural analysis, structural optimization

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Authors: Luis F. Garcia, Julian E. Jaramillo, Jorge L. Chacón

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Colombia is a country where the benefits of wind power industry are barely used because of the geography in some areas does not allow the implementation of onshore horizontal axis wind turbines. Furthermore, exist rural areas without access to the electrical grid. Therefore, there is currently a deficit of energy supply in some towns. This research took place in one of those areas (i.e. Chicamocha Canyon-Santander) where the answer to the energy supply problems could be the use of vertical axis wind turbines, which can be used for turbulent flows. Hence, one task of this research is the analysis of the wind resources in the Chicamocha Canyon in order to implement the wind energy. The wind turbines must be designed in such a way that the blades take good advantage of the wind resources in the area of interest. Consequently, in the current research the analysis of two different airfoils (i.e. NACA0018 and DU 06-W-200) through a 2D CFD simulation is carried out by means of a free-software (OpenFOAM). Predicted results using the “Spalart-Allmaras” turbulence model are similar to the wind tunnel data published in the literature. Moreover, global parameters such as dimensionless lift and drag coefficients were calculated. Finally, this research encourages VAWT studies under wind turbulent flows in order to achieve the best use of natural resources in Colombia.

Keywords: airfoil, wind turbine, turbulence modelling, Chicamocha, CFD

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Authors: Jane A. Luke

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Persistent pressure passed on to manufacturers from escalating consumer expectations and the ever growing global competitiveness have produced a rapidly increasing interest in the development of various manufacturing strategy models. Academic and industrial circles are taking keen interest in the field of manufacturing strategy. Many manufacturing strategies are currently centered on the traditional concepts of focused manufacturing capabilities such as quality, cost, dependability and innovation. Process capability indices was conducted assuming that the process under study is in statistical control and independent observations are generated over time. However, in practice, it is very common to come across processes which, due to their inherent natures, generate autocorrelated observations. The degree of autocorrelation affects the behavior of patterns on control charts. Even, small levels of autocorrelation between successive observations can have considerable effects on the statistical properties of conventional control charts. When observations are autocorrelated the classical control charts exhibit nonrandom patterns and lack of control. Many authors have considered the effect of autocorrelation on the performance of statistical process control charts. In this paper, the effect of autocorrelation on confidence intervals for different PCIs was included. Stationary Gaussian processes is explained. Effect of autocorrelation on PCIs is described in detail. Confidence intervals for Cp and Cpk are constructed for PCIs when data are both independent and autocorrelated. Confidence intervals for Cp and Cpk are computed. Approximate lower confidence limits for various Cpk are computed assuming AR(1) model for the data. Simulation studies and industrial examples are considered to demonstrate the results.

Keywords: autocorrelation, AR(1) model, Bissell’s approximation, confidence intervals, statistical process control, specification limits, stationary Gaussian processes

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Authors: Afaque Manzoor Soomro, Faheem Ahmed, Fida Hussain Memon, Kyung Hyun Choi

Abstract:

This paper proposes the bioinspired soft frog robot. All printing technology was used for the fabrication of the robot. Polyjet printing was used to print the front and back limbs, while ultrathin filament was used to print the body of the robot, which makes it a complete soft swimming robot. The dual thrust generation approach has been proposed by embedding the main muscle and antagonistic muscle in all the limbs, which enables it to attain high speed (18 mm/s), and significant control of swimming in dual modes (synchronous and asynchronous modes). To achieve the swimming motion of the frog, the design, motivated by the rigorous modelling and real frog dynamics analysis, enabled the as-developed frog robot (FROBOT) to swim at a significant level of consistency with the real frog. The FROBOT (weighing 65 g) can swim at different controllable frequencies (0.5–2Hz) and can turn in any direction by following custom-made LabVIEW software’s commands which enables it to swim at speed up to 18 mm/s on the surface of deep water (100 cm) with excellent weight balance.

Keywords: soft robotics, soft actuator, frog robot, 3D printing

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Asma Ameur, Dhafer Malouche

Abstract:

Hotel competitiveness research is an essential phase of the marketing strategy for any hotel. Certainly, knowing the hotels' competitors helps the hotelier to grasp its position in the market and the citizen to make the right choice in picking a hotel. Thus, competitiveness is an important indicator that can be influenced by various factors. In fact, the issue of competitiveness, this ability to cope with competition, remains a difficult and complex concept to define and to exploit. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to make an exploratory study to calculate a competitiveness indicator for hotels. Further on, this paper makes it possible to determine the criteria of direct or indirect effect on the image and the perception of a hotel. The actual research is used to look into the right model for hotel ‘competitiveness. For this reason, we exploit different theoretical contributions in the field of machine learning. Thus, we use some statistical techniques such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensions, as well as other techniques of statistical modeling. This paper presents a survey covering of the techniques and methods in hotel competitiveness research. Furthermore, this study allows us to deduct the significant variables that influence the determination of hotel’s competitors. Lastly, the discussed experiences in this article found that the hotel competitors are influenced by several factors with different rates.

Keywords: competitiveness, e-reputation, hotels' competitors, online hotel’ review, principal component analysis, statistical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Jahedul Islam Chowdhury, Bao Kha Nguyen, David Thornhill, Roy Douglas, Stephen Glover

Abstract:

Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) is the most commonly used method for recovering energy from small sources of heat. The investigation of the ORC in supercritical condition is a new research area as it has a potential to generate high power and thermal efficiency in a waste heat recovery system. This paper presents a steady state ORC model in supercritical condition and its simulations with a real engine’s exhaust data. The key component of ORC, evaporator, is modelled using finite volume method, modelling of all other components of the waste heat recovery system such as pump, expander and condenser are also presented. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of mass flow rate and evaporator outlet temperature on the efficiency of the waste heat recovery process. Additionally, the necessity of maintaining an optimum evaporator outlet temperature is also investigated. Simulation results show that modification of mass flow rate is the key to changing the operating temperature at the evaporator outlet.

Keywords: Organic Rankine cycle, supercritical condition, steady state model, waste heat recovery

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Adel Francis

Abstract:

Most of scheduling methods and software apply the critical path logic. This logic schedule activities, apply constraints between these activities and try to optimize and level the allocated resources. The extensive use of this logic produces a complex an erroneous network hard to present, follow and update. Planning and management building projects should tackle the coordination of works and the management of limited spaces, traffic, and supplies. Activities cannot be performed without the resources available and resources cannot be used beyond the capacity of workplaces. Otherwise, workspace congestion will negatively affect the flow of works. The objective of the space planning is to link the spatial and temporal aspects, promote efficient use of the site, define optimal site occupancy rates, and ensures suitable rotation of the workforce in the different spaces. The Chronographic scheduling modelling belongs to this category and models construction operations as well as their processes, logical constraints, association and organizational models, which help to better illustrate the schedule information using multiple flexible approaches. The model defined three categories of areas (punctual, surface and linear) and four different layers (space creation, systems, closing off space, finishing, and reduction of space). The Chronographical modelling is a more complete communication method, having the ability to alternate from one visual approach to another by manipulation of graphics via a set of parameters and their associated values. Each individual approach can help to schedule a certain project type or specialty. Visual communication can also be improved through layering, sheeting, juxtaposition, alterations, and permutations, allowing for groupings, hierarchies, and classification of project information. In this way, graphic representation becomes a living, transformable image, showing valuable information in a clear and comprehensible manner, simplifying the site management while simultaneously utilizing the visual space as efficiently as possible.

Keywords: building projects, chronographic modelling, CPM, critical path, precedence diagram, scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Filiz Ersoz, Taner Ersoz, Tugrul Bayraktar

Abstract:

Renewable energy is referred to as "clean energy" and common popular support for the use of renewable energy (RE) is to provide electricity with zero carbon dioxide emissions. This study provides useful insight into the European Union (EU) RE, especially, into electricity generation obtained from renewables, and their targets. The objective of this study is to identify groups of European countries, using multivariate statistical analysis and selected indicators. The hierarchical clustering method is used to decide the number of clusters for EU countries. The conducted statistical hierarchical cluster analysis is based on the Ward’s clustering method and squared Euclidean distances. Hierarchical cluster analysis identified eight distinct clusters of European countries. Then, non-hierarchical clustering (k-means) method was applied. Discriminant analysis was used to determine the validity of the results with data normalized by Z score transformation. To explore the relationship between the selected indicators, correlation coefficients were computed. The results of the study reveal the current situation of RE in European Union Member States.

Keywords: share of electricity generation, k-means clustering, discriminant, CO2 emission

Procedia PDF Downloads 399