Search results for: multivariate disaggregation rainfall model

Authors: Rizwan H. Khan, Saima Nusrat

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Despite the fact that amyloid associated neurodegenerative diseases and non-neuropathic systemic amyloidosis have allured the research endeavors, as no curative drugs have been proclaimed up till now except for symptomatic cure. Therapeutic compounds which can diminish or disaggregate such toxic oligomers and fibrillar species have been examined and more are on its way. In the present study, we had reported an extensive biophysical, microscopic and computational study, revealing that L-3, 4-dihydroxyphenylalanine (L-Dopa) possess undeniable potency to inhibit heat induced human lysozyme (HL) amyloid fibrillation and also retain the fibril disaggregating potential. L-Dopa interferes in the amyloid fibrillogenesis process by interacting hydrophobically and also by forming hydrogen bonds with the amino acid residues found in amyloid fibril forming prone region of HL as elucidated by molecular docking results. L-Dopa also disaggregates the mature amyloid fibrils into some unorganised species. Thus, L-Dopa and related compounds can work as a promising inhibitor for the therapeutic advancement prospective against systemic amyloidosis.

Keywords: amyloids, disaggregation, human lysozyme, molecular docking

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Authors: Ahmed Ali Samejo, Riffat Sultana

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Pakistan has the sandy Thar Desert in the eastern area, which share border line with India and has exotic fauna and flora, the livelihood of native people rely on livestock and rain fed cultivated fields. The climate of Thar Desert is very harsh and stressful due to frequent drought and very little rainfall, which may occur during monsoon season in the months of July to October and temperature is high, and wind speed also increases in April to June. Schistocerca gregaria is a destructive pest of vegetation from Mauritania to the border line of Pakistan and India. Sometimes they produce swarms which consume all plant where ever they land down and cause the loss in agro-economy of the world. During the recent study, we observed that vegetation was not unique throughout the Thar Desert in the year 2015, because the first spell of rainfall showered over all areas of the Thar Desert in July. However, the second and third spell of rain was confined to village Mahandre jo par and surroundings from August to October. Consequently, vegetation and cultivated crops grew up specially bajra crop (Pennistum glaucum). The climate of Mahandre jo par and surroundings became favorable for S.gregaria, and remaining areas of Thar Desert went hostile. Therefore desert locust attracted to the pleasant area (Mahandre jo par and surroundings) and gradually concentrated, increased reproductive activities, but did not gregarize due to the harvest of bajra crop and the onset of the winter season with an immediate decrease in temperature. An outbreak was near to come into existence, and thereupon conditions become stressful for hoppers to continue further development. Afore mentioned was one reason behind hurdle to the outbreak, another reason might be that migration and concentration of desert locust took place at the end of the season, so climate becomes unfavorable for hoppers, due to dryness of vegetation. Soils also become dry, because rainfall was not showered in end of the season, that’s why eggs that were deposited in late summer were desiccated. This data might be proved fruitful to forecast any outbreak update in future.

Keywords: agro-economy, destructive pest, climate, outbreak, vegetation

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Authors: Shobha Kumari Yadav, Yubaraj Satyal, Ajaya Dixit

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In addressing groundwater depletion, it is important to develop evidence base so to be used in assessing the state of its degradation. Groundwater data is limited compared to meteorological data, which impedes the groundwater use and management plan. Monitoring of groundwater levels provides information base to assess the condition of aquifers, their responses to water extraction, land-use change, and climatic variability. It is important to maintain a network of spatially distributed, long-term monitoring wells to support groundwater management plan. Monitoring involving local community is a cost effective approach that generates real time data to effectively manage groundwater use. This paper presents the relationship between rainfall and spring flow, which are the main source of freshwater for drinking, household consumptions and agriculture in hills of Nepal. The supply and withdrawal of water from springs depends upon local hydrology and the meteorological characteristics- such as rainfall, evapotranspiration and interflow. The study offers evidence of the use of scientific method and community based initiative for managing groundwater and springshed. The approach presents a method to replicate similar initiative in other parts of the country for maintaining integrity of springs.

Keywords: citizen science, groundwater, water resource management, Nepal

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Jayanta Bora, Ashok Agarwal, Sangeeta Kaul

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Background: HIV and STI transmission can be prevented if condoms are used properly, but condom tear may lead to infections even if are used consistently. Studies reveal high rates of condom breakage among Female Sex Workers (FSWs). USAID PHFI-PIPPSE is piloting a prevention model among high risk groups at Thane district of Maharashtra, India by implementing prevention and advocacy efforts for such risk behaviors. The current analysis highlights the correlates of condom breakage among FSWs from Thane. Method: A Behavioral Tracking Survey was conducted in 2014-15 among 503 FSWs through probability-based two stage random sampling from 3,660 FSWs at 100 hotspots, to understand levels of high risk behaviors, awareness and exposure to prevention programs. Bi-variate and multivariate-logistic regression methods used to assess the association of condom breakage while having sex with age, STI occurrence, anal sex with clients and alcohol consumption. Only self-reported STIs (Genital sore/ulcer, yellowish/ greenish discharge from vagina with/without foul smell, lower abdominal pain without diarrhea/dysentery or menses) were considered. Major Findings: Results depicted FSWs who reported condom breakage while having sex with any type of partner (paying clients, non-paying partners and other than main partner husband/boyfriend) had significantly high number of STIs (42.3% vs 16.9 %, P, 0.000) and had started sexual relationship in <16 years of age (31.0% vs 16.4 %, P, 0.000). Multivariate analysis after controlling the age at sex, knowledge about HIV and literacy, highlighted significantly higher odds of condom breakage among FSWs who have reported currently suffering with STI [AOR 2.91, 95% CI 1.75 - 4.83; P, 0.000]; who had anal sex with their paying client [AOR 2.59, 95% CI 1.59 - 4.19; P, 0.000]; and who consumed alcohol in the last 12 months [AOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.01 - 3.53; P, 0.047]. Conclusion: Risky behavior like anal sex with paying clients and impact of alcohol while having sex are main factors for condom breakage among young sex workers; and condom breakage leads to STIs. Hence, program interventions should address measures for prevention of condom breakage for HIV/STI prevention.

Keywords: female sex workers, condom breakage, anal sex, young sex workers

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Authors: Nulu Nanono

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Background: The Ugandan national health policy and the national population policy all recognize the need to increase access to quality, affordable, acceptable and sustainable contraceptive services for all people but provision and utilization of quality services remains low. Two contraceptive methods are categorized as long-acting temporary methods: intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUCDs) and implants. Copper-containing IUCDs, generally available in Ministry of Health (MoH) family planning programs and is effective for at least 12 years while Implants, depending on the type, last for up to three to seven years. Uganda’s current policy and political environment are favorable towards achieving national access to quality and safe contraceptives for all people as evidenced by increasing government commitments and innovative family planning programs. Despite the increase of modern contraception use from 14% to 26%, long acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) utilization has relatively remained low with less than 5% using IUDs & Implants which in a way explains Uganda’s persistent high fertility rates. Main question/hypothesis: The purpose of the study was to examine relationship between the demographic, socio-economic characteristics of women, health facility factors and long acting reversible contraception utilization. Methodology: LARC utilization was investigated comprising of the two questions namely are you or your partner currently doing something or using any method to delay or avoid getting pregnant? And which method or methods are you using? Data for the study was sourced from the 2016 Uganda Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 Survey comprising of 3816 female respondents aged 15 to 49 years. The analysis was done using the Chi-squared tests and the probit regression at bivariate and multivariate levels respectively. The model was further tested for validity and normality of the residuals using the Sharipo wilks test and test for kurtosis and skewness. Results: The results showed the model the age, parity, marital status, region, knowledge of LARCs, availability of LARCs to be significantly associated with long acting contraceptive utilization with p value of less than 0.05. At the multivariate analysis level, women who had higher parities (0.000) tertiary education (0.013), no knowledge about LARCs (0.006) increases their probability of using LARCs. Furthermore while women age 45-49, those who live in the eastern region reduces their probability of using LARCs. Knowledge contribution: The findings of this study join the debate of prior research in this field and add to the body of knowledge related to long acting reversible contraception. An outstanding and queer finding from the study is the non-utilization of LARCs by women who are aware and have knowledge about them, this may be an opportunity for further research to investigate the attribution to this.

Keywords: contraception, long acting, utilization, women (15-49)

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Authors: Bayu Dwi Cahyo, Ekohariadi, Theodorus Wiyanto Wibowo, I. G. P. Asto Budithahjanto, Eppy Yundra

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The objective of this study is to examine the effects of self-confidence, adversity quotient, and self-efficacy variables on critical thinking. This research's participants are 137 cadets of Aviation Polytechnics of Surabaya with the sampling technique that was purposive sampling. In this study, the data collection method used a questionnaire with Linkert-scale and distributed or given to respondents by the specified number of samples. The SPSS AMOS v23 was used to test a number of a priori multivariate growth curve models and examining relationships between the variables via path analysis. The result of path analysis was (χ² = 88.463, df= 71, χ² /df= 1.246, GFI= .914, CFI= .988, P= .079, AGFI= .873, TLI= .985, RMSEA= .043). According to the analysis, there is a positive and significant relationship between self-confidence, adversity quotient, and self-efficacy variables on critical thinking.

Keywords: self-confidence, adversity quotient, self-efficacy variables, critical thinking

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Authors: Marzieh Khedmati, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt

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Vegetative Filter Strips (VFS) are used for controlling the volume of runoff and decreasing contaminant concentrations in runoff before entering water bodies. Many studies have investigated the role of VFS in sediment and nutrient removal, but little is known about their efficiency for the removal of emerging contaminants such as antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs). Vegetative Filter Strip Modeling System (VFSMOD) was used to simulate the efficiency of VFS in this regard. Several studies demonstrated the ability of VFSMOD to predict reductions in runoff volume and sediment concentration moving through the filters. The objectives of this study were to calibrate the VFSMOD with experimental data and assess the efficiency of the model in simulating the filter behavior in removing ARGs (ermB) and tylosin. The experimental data were obtained from a prior study conducted at the University of Nebraska (UNL) Rogers Memorial Farm. Three treatment factors were tested in the experiments, including manure amendment, narrow grass hedges and rainfall events. Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) was defined as the filter efficiency and the related experimental and model values were compared to each other. The VFS Model generally agreed with the experimental results and as a result, the model was used for predicting filter efficiencies when the runoff data are not available. Narrow Grass Hedges (NGH) were shown to be effective in reducing tylosin and ARGs concentration. The simulation showed that the filter efficiency in removing ARGs is different for different soil types and filter lengths. There is an optimum length for the filter strip that produces minimum runoff volume. Based on the model results increasing the length of the filter by 1-meter leads to higher efficiency but widening beyond that decreases the efficiency. The VFSMOD, which was proved to work well in estimation of VFS trapping efficiency, showed confirming results for ARG removal.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance genes, emerging contaminants, narrow grass hedges, vegetative filter strips, vegetative filter strip modeling system

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Authors: Alessandra Turini Bolsoni-Silva, Sonia Regina Loureiro

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It is important to evaluate such variables simultaneously and differentiating types of behavior problems: internalizing, externalizing and with comorbidity of internalizing and externalizing. The objective was to compare, correlate and predict teacher educational practices (educational social skills and negative practices) and children's behaviors (social skills and behavior problems) of children with internalizing, externalizing and combined internalizing and externalizing problems, controlling variables of child (gender and education). A total of 262 children were eligible to compose the participants, considering preschool age from 3 to 5 years old (n = 109) and school age from 6 to 11 (n = 153) years old, and their teachers who were distributed, in designs case-control, non-clinical, with internalizing, externalizing problems and internalizing and externalizing comorbidity, using the Teacher's Report Form (TRF) as a criterion. The instruments were applied with the teachers, after consent from the parents/guardians: a) Teacher’s Report Form (TRF); b) Educational Social Skills Interview Guide for Teachers (RE-HSE-Pr); (c) Socially Skilled Response Questionnaire – Teachers (QRSH-Pr). The data were treated by univariate and multivariate analyses, proceeding with comparisons, correlations and predictions regarding the outcomes of children with and without behavioral problems, considering the types of problems. As main results stand out: (a) group comparison studies: in the Inter group there is emphasis on behavior problems in affection interactions, which does not happen in the other groups; as for positive practices, they discriminate against groups with externalizing and combined problems and not in internalizing ones, positive educational practices – hse are more frequent in the G-Exter and G-Inter+Exter groups; negative practices differed only in the G-Exter and G-Inter+Exter groups; b) correlation studies: it can be seen that the Inter+Exter group presents a greater number of correlations in the relationship between behavioral problems/complaints and negative practices and between children's social skills and positive practices/contexts; c) prediction studies: children's social skills predict internalizing, externalizing and combined problems; it is also verified that the negative practices are in the multivariate model for the externalizing and combined ones. This investigation collaborates in the identification of risk and protective factors for specific problems, helping in interventions for different problems.

Keywords: development, educational practices, social skills, behavior problems, teacher

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Authors: Fatemehsadat Mortazavizadeh, Amin Dehghani, Majid Mirzaei, Nurulhuda Binti Mohammad Ramli, Adnan Dehghani

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Flood is Malaysia's most common and serious natural disaster. Kelantan River Basin is a tropical basin that experiences a rainy season during North-East Monsoon from November to March. It is also one of the hardest hit areas in Peninsular Malaysia during the heavy monsoon rainfall. Considering the consequences of the flood events, it is essential to develop the flood inundation map as part of the mitigation approach. In this study, the delineation of flood inundation zone in the area of Kelantan River basin using a hydrodynamic model is done by HEC-RAS, QGIS and ArcMap. The streamflow data has been generated with the weather generator based on the observation data. Then, the data is statistically analyzed with the Extreme Value (EV1) method for 2-, 5-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The minimum depth, maximum depth, mean depth, and the standard deviation of all the scenarios, including the OBS, are observed and analyzed. Based on the results, generally, the value of the data increases with the return period for all the scenarios. However, there are certain scenarios that have different results, which not all the data obtained are increasing with the return period. Besides, OBS data resulted in the middle range within Scenario 1 to Scenario 40.

Keywords: flood inundation, kelantan river basin, hydrodynamic model, extreme value analysis

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Authors: Zhou Jianhong

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Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

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Authors: Ashok Tejankar, Rohan K. Pathrikar

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Maharashtra is covered by heterogeneous flows of Deccan basaltic terrains of upper cretaceous to lower Eocene age. It consist mainly different types of basalt flow, having heterogeneous Geohydrological characters. The study area Aurangabad dist. lies in the central part of Maharashtra. The study area is typically covered by Deccan traps formation mainly basalt type of igneous volcanic rock. The area is located in the survey of India toposheet No. 47M and laying between 19° to 20° north latitudes and 74° to 76° east longitudes. Groundwater is the primary source for fresh water in the study area. There has been a growing demand for fresh water in domestic & agriculture sectors. Due to over exploitation and rainfall failure has been created an irrecoverable stress on groundwater in study area. In an effort to maintain the water table condition in balance, artificial recharge is being implemented. The selection of site for artificial recharge is a very important task in recharge basalt. The present study aims at sitting artificial recharge structure at village Pachod in basaltic terrain of the Godavari-Purna river basin in Aurangabad district of Maharashtra, India. where the average annual rainfall is 650mm. In this investigation, integrated remote sensing and GIS techniques were used and various parameters like lithology, structure, etc. aspect of drainage basins, landforms and other parameters were extracted from visual interpretation of IRS P6 Satellite data and Survey of India (SIO) topographical sheets, aided by field checks by carrying well inventory survey. The depth of weathered material, water table conditions, and rainfall data were been considered. All the thematic information layers were digitized and analyzed in Arc-GIS environment and the composite maps produced show suitable site, depth of bed rock flows for successful artificial recharge in village Pachod to increase groundwater potential of low laying area.

Keywords: hard rock, artificial recharge, remote sensing, GIS

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Authors: Zahid Khalil, Saad Ul Haque, Asif Khan

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Decision making about identifying suitable sites for any project by considering different parameters is difficult. Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) can make it easy for those projects. This technology has proved to be an efficient and adequate in acquiring the desired information. In this study, GIS and MCA were employed to identify the suitable sites for small dams in Dadu Tehsil, Sindh. The GIS software is used to create all the spatial parameters for the analysis. The parameters that derived are slope, drainage density, rainfall, land use / land cover, soil groups, Curve Number (CN) and runoff index with a spatial resolution of 30m. The data used for deriving above layers include 30-meter resolution SRTM DEM, Landsat 8 imagery, and rainfall from National Centre of Environment Prediction (NCEP) and soil data from World Harmonized Soil Data (WHSD). Land use/Land cover map is derived from Landsat 8 using supervised classification. Slope, drainage network and watershed are delineated by terrain processing of DEM. The Soil Conservation Services (SCS) method is implemented to estimate the surface runoff from the rainfall. Prior to this, SCS-CN grid is developed by integrating the soil and land use/land cover raster. These layers with some technical and ecological constraints are assigned weights on the basis of suitability criteria. The pairwise comparison method, also known as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is taken into account as MCA for assigning weights on each decision element. All the parameters and group of parameters are integrated using weighted overlay in GIS environment to produce suitable sites for the Dams. The resultant layer is then classified into four classes namely, best suitable, suitable, moderate and less suitable. This study reveals a contribution to decision-making about suitable sites analysis for small dams using geospatial data with minimal amount of ground data. This suitability maps can be helpful for water resource management organizations in determination of feasible rainwater harvesting structures (RWH).

Keywords: Remote sensing, GIS, AHP, RWH

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Authors: Gizem İntepe, Eti Mizrahi

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Investment and financing decisions are influenced by various economic features. Detailed analysis should be conducted in order to make decisions not only by companies but also by governments. Such analysis can be conducted either at the company level or on a sectoral basis to reduce risks and to maximize profits. Sectoral disaggregation caused by seasonality effects, subventions, data advantages or disadvantages may appear in sectors behaving parallel to BIST (Borsa Istanbul stock exchange) Index. Proposed logistic indices could serve market needs as a decision parameter in sectoral basis and also helps forecasting activities in import export volume changes. Also it is an indicator of logistic activity, which is also a sign of economic mobility at the national level. Publicly available data from “Ministry of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communications” and “Turkish Statistical Institute” is utilized to obtain five logistics indices namely as; exLogistic, imLogistic, fLogistic, dLogistic and cLogistic index. Then, efficiency and reliability of these indices are tested.

Keywords: economic activity, export trade data, import trade data, logistics indices

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Authors: Dwi Kartika Rukmi, Miftafu Darussalam

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Background: The disclosure of women’s HIV status toward their sexual partners is an important issue that should be regarded as one of the efforts to prevent and control the spread of HIV. Research on the disclosure of seropositive HIV status as well as women-related factors in Indonesia, especially Yogyakarta is only a few. Methods: This is a correlational descriptive research along with its cross-sectional approach on 329 women with HIV/AIDS at the Victory Plus NGO from June to July 2016. This research used a purposive sampling method and a questionnaire as the data collection technique. The bivariate analysis test was undertaken by using a chi-square and multivariate test along with a logistic regression. Result: The multivariate analysis and logistic regression show five independent variables related to the disclosure of seropositive HIV status of women with HIV/AIDS toward their sexual partners, namely ethnicity (aOR = 36,859; 95% CI; (6,544-207,616)) religion (aOR =0,255; 95%CI; (0,075-0,868)), discussion with partners prior to the HIV test (aOR =0,069; 95%CI; (0,065-0,438)) , types of sexual partners (aOR = 0.191; 95% CI; (0.082-0,445)) and knowledge on the partners’ HIV status (aOR = 0.036; 95% CI; (0.008-0.160)). The highest level of reason for seropositive HIV women not to be open about their partners’ status is the fear of being rejected by their partners and the environmental stigma of HIV AIDS disease. Conclusion: The disclosure of seropositive HIV status in women with HIV/AIDS in the Victory Plus NGO of Yogyakarta was 79.4% or classified as a high category with some related factors such as ethnicity, religion, discussion with partners prior to the HIV test, types of partners and knowledge on the partners’ HIV status.

Keywords: women, HIV, disclosure, sexual partner

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Authors: Buruk Kitachew Wossenyeleh

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Groundwater is the largest freshwater reservoir in the world. Like the other reservoirs of the hydrologic cycle, it is a finite resource. This study focused on the groundwater modeling of the Ter Kamerenbos well field to understand the groundwater flow system and the impact of different scenarios. The study area covers 68.9Km2 in the Brussels Capital Region and is situated in two river catchments, i.e., Zenne River and Woluwe Stream. The aquifer system has three layers, but in the modeling, they are considered as one layer due to their hydrogeological properties. The catchment aquifer system is replenished by direct recharge from rainfall. The groundwater recharge of the catchment is determined using the spatially distributed water balance model called WetSpass, and it varies annually from zero to 340mm. This groundwater recharge is used as the top boundary condition for the groundwater modeling of the study area. During the groundwater modeling using Processing MODFLOW, constant head boundary conditions are used in the north and south boundaries of the study area. For the east and west boundaries of the study area, head-dependent flow boundary conditions are used. The groundwater model is calibrated manually and automatically using observed hydraulic heads in 12 observation wells. The model performance evaluation showed that the root means the square error is 1.89m and that the NSE is 0.98. The head contour map of the simulated hydraulic heads indicates the flow direction in the catchment, mainly from the Woluwe to Zenne catchment. The simulated head in the study area varies from 13m to 78m. The higher hydraulic heads are found in the southwest of the study area, which has the forest as a land-use type. This calibrated model was run for the climate change scenario and well operation scenario. Climate change may cause the groundwater recharge to increase by 43% and decrease by 30% in 2100 from current conditions for the high and low climate change scenario, respectively. The groundwater head varies for a high climate change scenario from 13m to 82m, whereas for a low climate change scenario, it varies from 13m to 76m. If doubling of the pumping discharge assumed, the groundwater head varies from 13m to 76.5m. However, if the shutdown of the pumps is assumed, the head varies in the range of 13m to 79m. It is concluded that the groundwater model is done in a satisfactory way with some limitations, and the model output can be used to understand the aquifer system under steady-state conditions. Finally, some recommendations are made for the future use and improvement of the model.

Keywords: Ter Kamerenbos, groundwater modelling, WetSpass, climate change, well operation

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Authors: Waleed El-Said Abou El-Amaiem

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Sole hemorrhages are considered as a main cause for sub clinical laminitis. In this study we aimed at discussing the most prominent risk factors associated with sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows. The final multivariate logistic regression model showed, a significant association between sub acute ruminal acidosis (P< 0.05), limb affected (P< 0.05) and weight (P< 0.05) and sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows. According to our knowledge, this is the first paper to discuss the risk factors associated with sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows.

Keywords: lameness, buffalo, sole hemorrhages, breed cows

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Authors: Soorya Vennila

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The present study answers the questions; how does climate change affect the water security in drought prone Ramanathapuram district? and what has water insecurity done to the health of the coastal community? The study area chosen is Devipattinam in Ramanathapuram district. Climate change evidentially wreaked havoc on the community with saltwater intrusion, water quality degradation, water scarcity and its eventual economic, social like power inequality within family and community and health hazards. The climatological data such as rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature were statistically analyzed for trend using Mann-Kendall test. The test was conducted for 14 years (1989-2002) of rainfall data, maximum and minimum temperature and the data were statistically analyzed. At the outset, the water quality samples were collected from Devipattinam to test its physical and chemical parameters and their spatial variation. The results were derived as shown in ARC GIS. Using the water quality test water quality index were framed. And finally, key Informant interview, questionnaire were conducted to capture the gender perception and problem. The data collected were thereafter interpreted using SPSS software for recommendations and suggestions to overcome water scarcity and health problems.

Keywords: health, watersecurity, water quality, climate change

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Authors: Arup K. Sarma, Jayshree Hazarika

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The North-eastern part of India, which receives heavier rainfall than other parts of the subcontinent, is of great concern now-a-days with regard to climate change. High intensity rainfall for short duration and longer dry spell, occurring due to impact of climate change, affects river morphology too. In the present study, an attempt is made to delineate the North-Eastern region of India into some homogeneous clusters based on the Fuzzy Clustering concept and to compare the resulting clusters obtained by using conventional methods and non conventional methods of clustering. The concept of clustering is adapted in view of the fact that, impact of climate change can be studied in a homogeneous region without much variation, which can be helpful in studies related to water resources planning and management. 10 IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) stations, situated in various regions of the North-east, have been selected for making the clusters. The results of the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) analysis show different clustering patterns for different conditions. From the analysis and comparison it can be concluded that non conventional method of using GCM data is somehow giving better results than the others. However, further analysis can be done by taking daily data instead of monthly means to reduce the effect of standardization.

Keywords: climate change, conventional and nonconventional methods of clustering, FCM analysis, homogeneous regions

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Authors: Gauri Sreekumar, Sabuj Kumar Mandal

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Contributing about 18% to India’s Gross Domestic Product, the agricultural sector plays a significant role in the Indian rural economy. Despite being the primary source of livelihood for more than half of India’s population, most of them are marginal and small farmers facing several challenges due to agro-climatic shocks. Climate change is expected to increase the risk in the regions that are highly agriculture dependent. With systematic and scientific evidence of changes in rainfall, temperature and other extreme climate events, migration started to emerge as a survival strategy for the farm households. In this backdrop, our present study aims to combine the two strands of literature and attempts to explore whether migration is the only adaptation strategy for the farmers once they experience crop failures due adverse climatic condition. Combining the temperature and rainfall information from the weather data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department with the household level panel data on Indian states belonging to the Eastern and Semi-Arid Tropics regions from the Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) collected by the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics, we form a rich panel data for the years 2010-2014. A Recursive Econometric Model is used to establish the three-way nexus between climate change-yield-migration while addressing the role of irrigation and local non-farm income diversification. Using Three Stage Least Squares Estimation method, we find that climate change induced yield loss is a major driver of farmers’ migration. However, irrigation and local level non-farm income diversification are found to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on migration. Based on our empirical results, we suggest for enhancing irrigation facilities and making local non-farm income diversification opportunities available to increase farm productivity and thereby reduce farmers’ migration.

Keywords: climate change, migration, adaptation, mitigation

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Authors: L. Madouni, M. Ould Ouali, N. E. Hannachi

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Two constitutive models for concrete are available in ABAQUS/Explicit, the Brittle Cracking Model and the Concrete Damaged Plasticity Model, and their suitability and limitations are well known. The aim of the present paper is to implement a damage-friction concrete constitutive model and to evaluate the performance of this model by comparing the predicted response with experimental data. The constitutive formulation of this material model is reviewed. In order to have consistent results, the parameter identification and calibration for the model have been performed. Several numerical simulations are presented in this paper, whose results allow for validating the capability of the proposed model for reproducing the typical nonlinear performances of concrete structures under different monotonic and cyclic load conditions. The results of the evaluation will be used for recommendations concerning the application and further improvements of the investigated model.

Keywords: Abaqus, concrete, constitutive model, numerical simulation

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Authors: Matthew Buns

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Training specificity is imperative for successful performance of the elite athlete. Virtual reality (VR) has been successfully applied to a broad range of training domains. However, to date there is little research investigating the use of VR for sport training. The purpose of this study was to address the question of whether virtual reality (VR) training can improve real world hockey shooting performance. Twenty four volunteers were recruited and randomly selected to complete the virtual training intervention or enter a control group with no training. Four primary types of data were collected: 1) participant’s experience with video games and hockey, 2) participant’s motivation toward video game use, 3) participants technical performance on real-world hockey, and 4) participant’s technical performance in virtual hockey. One-way multivariate analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that that the intervention group demonstrated significantly more real-world hockey accuracy [F(1,24) =15.43, p <.01, E.S. = 0.56] while shooting on goal than their control group counterparts [intervention M accuracy = 54.17%, SD=12.38, control M accuracy = 46.76%, SD=13.45]. One-way multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) repeated measures indicated significantly higher outcome scores on real-world accuracy (35.42% versus 54.17%; ES = 1.52) and velocity (51.10 mph versus 65.50 mph; ES=0.86) of hockey shooting on goal. This research supports the idea that virtual training is an effective tool for increasing real-world hockey skill.

Keywords: virtual training, hockey skills, video game, esports

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine-learning methods, such as random forest, are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. Random Forest showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the Random Forest method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods.

Keywords: cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest

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Authors: Fazli Rahim Shinwari, Ulrich Dittmer

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Like many megacities around the world, Kabul is facing severe problems due to the rising frequency of urban flooding. Since 2001, Kabul is experiencing rapid population growth because of the repatriation of refugees and internal migration. Due to unplanned development, green areas inside city and hilly areas within and around the city are converted into new housing towns that had increased runoff. Trenches along the roadside comprise the unplanned drainage network of the city that drains the combined sewer flow. In rainy season overflow occurs, and after streets become dry, the dust particles contaminate the air which is a major cause of air pollution in Kabul city. In this study, a stormwater management model is introduced as a basis for a systematic approach to urban drainage planning in Kabul. For this purpose, Kabul city is delineated into 8 watersheds with the help of one-meter resolution LIDAR DEM. Storm, water management model, is developed for Wazirabad catchment by using available data and literature values. Due to lack of long term metrological data, the model is only run for hourly rainfall data of a rain event that occurred in April 2016. The rain event from 1st to 3rd April with maximum intensity of 3mm/hr caused huge flooding in Wazirabad Catchment of Kabul City. Model-estimated flooding at some points of the catchment as an actual measurement of flooding was not possible; results were compared with information obtained from local people, Kabul Municipality and Capital Region Independent Development Authority. The model helped to identify areas where flooding occurred because of less capacity of drainage system and areas where the main reason for flooding is due to blockage in the drainage canals. The model was used for further analysis to find a sustainable solution to the problem. The option to construct new canals was analyzed, and two new canals were proposed that will reduce the flooding frequency in Wazirabad catchment of Kabul city. By developing the methodology to develop a stormwater management model from digital data and information, the study had fulfilled the primary objective, and similar methodology can be used for other catchments of Kabul city to prepare an emergency and long-term plan for drainage system of Kabul city.

Keywords: urban hydrology, storm water management, modeling, SWMM, GEO-SWMM, GIS, identification of flood vulnerable areas, urban flooding analysis, sustainable urban drainage

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Authors: Zahid O. Alibrahim, Craig D. Williams, Clive L. Roberts

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The study area (Ecton mining area) is located in the southern part of the Peak District in Derbyshire, England. It is bounded by the River Manifold from the west. This area has been mined for a long period. As a result, huge amounts of potentially toxic metals were released into the surrounding area and are most likely to be a significant source of heavy metal contamination to the local soil, water and vegetation. In order to appraise the potential heavy metal pollution in this area, 37 topsoil samples (5-20 cm depth) were collected and analysed for their total content of Cu, Pb, Zn, Mn, Cr, Ni and V using ICP (Inductively Coupled Plasma) optical emission spectroscopy. Multivariate Geospatial analyses using the GIS technique were utilised to draw geochemical maps of the metals of interest over the study area. A few hotspot points, areas of elevated concentrations of metals, were specified, which are presumed to be the results of anthropogenic activities. In addition, the soil’s environmental quality was evaluated by calculating the Mullers’ Geoaccumulation index (I geo), which suggests that the degree of contamination of the investigated heavy metals has the following trend: Pb > Zn > Cu > Mn > Ni = Cr = V. Furthermore, the potential ecological risk, using the enrichment factor (EF), was also specified. On the basis of the calculated amount or the EF, the levels of pollution for the studied metals in the study area have the following order: Pb>Zn>Cu>Cr>V>Ni>Mn.

Keywords: enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, GIS, heavy metals, multivariate analysis

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Authors: Arslan Murtaza

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Model Driven Architecture (MDA) is technique presented by OMG (Object Management Group) for software development in which different models are proposed and converted them into code. The main plan is to identify task by using PIM (Platform Independent Model) and transform it into PSM (Platform Specific Model) and then converted into code. In this review paper describes some challenges and issues that are faced in MDA, type and transformation of models (e.g. CIM, PIM and PSM), and evaluation of MDA-based methodologies.

Keywords: OMG, model driven rrchitecture (MDA), computation independent model (CIM), platform independent model (PIM), platform specific model(PSM), MDA-based methodologies

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Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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Quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) analysis was used to predict the chromatographic behavior of s-triazine derivatives by using theoretical descriptors computed from the chemical structure. Fundamental basis of the reported investigation is to relate molecular topological descriptors with chromatographic behavior of s-triazine derivatives obtained by reversed-phase (RP) thin layer chromatography (TLC) on silica gel impregnated with paraffin oil and applied ethanol-water (φ = 0.5-0.8; v/v). Retention parameter (RM0) of 14 investigated s-triazine derivatives was used as dependent variable while simple connectivity index different orders were used as independent variables. The best QSRR model for predicting RM0 value was obtained with simple third order connectivity index (3χ) in the second-degree polynomial equation. Numerical values of the correlation coefficient (r=0.915), Fisher's value (F=28.34) and root mean square error (RMSE = 0.36) indicate that model is statistically significant. In order to test the predictive power of the QSRR model leave-one-out cross-validation technique has been applied. The parameters of the internal cross-validation analysis (r2CV=0.79, r2adj=0.81, PRESS=1.89) reflect the high predictive ability of the generated model and it confirms that can be used to predict RM0 value. Multivariate classification technique, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), has been applied in order to group molecules according to their molecular connectivity indices. HCA is a descriptive statistical method and it is the most frequently used for important area of data processing such is classification. The HCA performed on simple molecular connectivity indices obtained from the 2D structure of investigated s-triazine compounds resulted in two main clusters in which compounds molecules were grouped according to the number of atoms in the molecule. This is in agreement with the fact that these descriptors were calculated on the basis of the number of atoms in the molecule of the investigated s-triazine derivatives.

Keywords: s-triazines, QSRR, chemometrics, chromatography, molecular descriptors

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Authors: Chuan-Ming Tung, Jin-Cheng Fu, Chia-En Feng

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In recent years, the rapid development of urban land in Taiwan has led to the constant increase of the areas of impervious surface, which has increased the risk of waterlogging during heavy rainfall. Therefore, in recent years, promoting runoff allocation responsibilities has often been used as a means of reducing regional flooding. In this study, the single catchment area covering both urban and rural land as the study area is discussed. Based on Storm Water Management Model, urban and rural land in a single catchment area was explored to develop the runoff allocation responsibilities according to their respective control regulation on land use. The impacts of runoff increment and reduction in sub-catchment area were studied to understand the impact of highly developed urban land on the reduction of flood risk of rural land at the back end. The results showed that the rainfall with 1 hour short delay of 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, and 25 years return period. If the study area was fully developed, the peak discharge at the outlet would increase by 24.46% -22.97% without runoff allocation responsibilities. The front-end urban land would increase runoff from back-end of rural land by 76.19% -46.51%. However, if runoff allocation responsibilities were carried out in the study area, the peak discharge could be reduced by 58.38-63.08%, which could make the front-end to reduce 54.05% -23.81% of the peak flow to the back-end. In addition, the researchers found that if it was seen from the perspective of runoff allocation responsibilities of per unit area, the residential area of urban land would benefit from the relevant laws and regulations of the urban system, which would have a better effect of reducing flood than the residential land in rural land. For rural land, the development scale of residential land was generally small, which made the effect of flood reduction better than that of industrial land. Agricultural land requires a large area of land, resulting in the lowest share of the flow per unit area. From the point of the planners, this study suggests that for the rural land around the city, its responsibility should be assigned to share the runoff. And setting up rain water storage facilities in the same way as urban land, can also take stock of agricultural land resources to increase the ridge of field for flood storage, in order to improve regional disaster reduction capacity and resilience.

Keywords: runoff allocation responsibilities, land use, flood mitigation, SWMM

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Authors: Weiju Zhou, Alex Hopkins, Ruoling Chen

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Background: China has increased the gap in income between richer and poorer over the past 40 years, and the number of deaths from people with angina has been rising. It is unclear whether socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with increased mortality in older people with angina. Methods: Data from a cohort study of 2,380 participants aged ≥ 65 years, who were randomly recruited from 5-province urban communities were examined in China. The cohort members were interviewed to record socio-demographic and risk factors and document doctor-diagnosed angina at baseline and were followed them up in 3-10 years, including monitoring vital status. Multivariate Cox regression models were employed to examine all-cause mortality in relation to low SES. Results: The cohort follow-up identified 373 deaths occurred; 41 deaths in 208 angina patients. Compared to participants without angina (n=2,172), patients with angina had increased mortality (multivariate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.41, 95% CI 1.01-1.97). Within angina patients, the risk of mortality increased with low satisfactory income (2.51, 1.08-5.85) and having financial problem (4.00, 1.07-15.00), but significantly with levels of education and occupation. In non-angina participants, none of these four SES indicators were associated with mortality. There was a significant interaction effect between angina and low satisfactory income on mortality. Conclusions: In China, having low income and financial problem increase mortality in older people with angina. Strategies to improve economic circumstances in older people could help reduce inequality in angina survival.

Keywords: angina, mortality, older people, socio-economic status

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Authors: Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath, Shreya Pal

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Purpose: This study scrutinizes the impact of economic globalization on ecological footprint while endogenizing economic growth and energy consumption from 1990 to 2018 in India. Design/methodology/approach: The standard unit root test has been employed for time series analysis to unveil the integration order. Then, the cointegration was confirmed using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis. Further, the study executed the dynamic ARDL simulation model to estimate long-run and short-run results along with simulation and robotic prediction. Findings: The cointegration analysis confirms the existence of a long-run association among variables. Further, economic globalization reduces the ecological footprint in the long run. Similarly, energy consumption decreases the ecological footprint. In contrast, economic growth spurs the ecological footprint in India. Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature in many ways. First, unlike studies that employ CO2 emissions and globalization nexus, this study employs ecological footprint for measuring environmental quality; since it is the broader measure of environmental quality, it can offer a wide range of climate change mitigation policies for India. Second, the study executes a multivariate framework with updated series from 1990 to 2018 in India to explore the link between EF, economic globalization, energy consumption, and economic growth. Third, the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been used to explore the short and long-run association between the series. Finally, to our limited knowledge, this is the first study that uses economic globalization in the EF function of India amid facing a trade-off between sustainable economic growth and the environment in the era of globalization.

Keywords: economic globalization, ecological footprint, India, dynamic ARDL simulation model

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Authors: Mohamed Rabhi, Kouider Halim Benrahou

Abstract:

The rheological properties of the carbonyl-methylcellulose (CMC), of different concentrations (25000, 50000, 60000, 80000 and 100000 ppm) and different temperatures were studied. We found that the rheological behavior of all CMC solutions presents a pseudo-plastic behavior, it follows the model of Ostwald-de Waele. The objective of this work is the modeling of flow by the CMC Cross model. The Cross model gives us the variation of the viscosity according to the shear rate. This model allowed us to adjust more clearly the rheological characteristics of CMC solutions. A comparison between the Cross model and the model of Ostwald was made. Cross the model fitting parameters were determined by a numerical simulation to make an approach between the experimental curve and those given by the two models. Our study has shown that the model of Cross, describes well the flow of "CMC" for low concentrations.

Keywords: CMC, rheological modeling, Ostwald model, cross model, viscosity

Procedia PDF Downloads 368