Search results for: earthquake risk management

Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: Gampel Alexander, Mazzuchi Thomas, Sarkani Shahram

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The cybersecurity landscape is constantly evolving, and organizations must adapt to the changing threat environment to protect their assets. The implementation of the NIST Risk Management Framework (RMF) has become critical in ensuring the security and safety of industrial control and automation systems. However, cybersecurity professionals are facing challenges in implementing RMF, leading to systems operating without authorization and being non-compliant with regulations. The current approach to RMF implementation based on business practices is limited and insufficient, leaving organizations vulnerable to cyberattacks resulting in the loss of personal consumer data and critical infrastructure details. To address these challenges, this research proposes a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to implementing cybersecurity controls and assessing risk through the RMF process. The study emphasizes the need to shift to a modeling approach, which can streamline the RMF process and eliminate bloated structures that make it difficult to receive an Authorization-To-Operate (ATO). The study focuses on the practical application of MBSE in industrial control and automation systems to improve the security and safety of operations. It is concluded that MBSE can be used to solve the implementation challenges of the NIST RMF process and improve the security of industrial control and automation systems. The research suggests that MBSE provides a more effective and efficient method for implementing cybersecurity controls and assessing risk through the RMF process. The future work for this research involves exploring the broader applicability of MBSE in different industries and domains. The study suggests that the MBSE approach can be applied to other domains beyond industrial control and automation systems.

Keywords: authorization-to-operate (ATO), industrial control systems (ICS), model-based system’s engineering (MBSE), risk management framework (RMF)

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Authors: Toake Endoh

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Cross-border migration of people is a critical driver for sustainable economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, the region is susceptible to mega-scale natural disasters, such as tsunami, earthquakes, and typhoons. When migrants are stranded in a foreign country by a disaster, who should be responsible for their safety and security? What legal or moral foundation is there to advocate for the protection and assistance of “migrants at risk (M@R)”? How can the states practice “good governance” in their response to displacement of the foreign migrants? This paper inquires how to protect foreign migrants displaced by a natural disaster under international law and proposes protective actions to be taken by of migrant-receiver governments. First, the paper discusses the theoretical foundation for protection of M@R and argues that the nation-states are charged of responsibility to protect at-risk foreigners as “internally displaced persons” in the light of the United Nations’ Guiding Principles of Internal Displacement (1998). Second, through the case study of the Kobe Earthquake in Japan (1995), the Tsunami in Thailand (2004), and the Hurricane Katrina in the U.S. (2005), the paper evaluates how effectively (or poorly) institutions and state actors addressed the specific vulnerability felt by M@R in these crises.

Keywords: internal displaced persons, natural disaster, international migration, responsibility to protect

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Authors: Radhwane Boudjelthia

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The most recent earthquakes occurred in the world have killed thousands of people and severe damage. For all the actors involved in the building process, the earthquake is the litmus test for construction. The goal we set ourselves is to contribute to the implementation of a thoughtful approach to the seismic protection of structures. For many engineers, the most conventional approach to protection works (buildings and bridges) the effects of earthquakes is to increase rigidity. This approach is not always effective, especially when there is a context that favors the phenomenon of resonance and amplification of seismic forces. Therefore, the field of earthquake engineering has made significant inroads, among others catalyzed by the development of computational techniques in computer form and the use of powerful test facilities. This has led to the emergence of several innovative technologies, such as the introduction of special devices insulation between infrastructure and superstructure. This approach, commonly known as "seismic isolation," to absorb the significant efforts without the structure is damaged and thus ensuring the protection of lives and property. In addition, the restraints to the construction by the ground shaking are located mainly at the supports. With these moves, the natural period of construction is increasing, and seismic loads are reduced. Thus, there is an attenuation of the seismic movement. Likewise, the insulation of the base mechanism may be used in combination with earthquake dampers in order to control the deformation of the insulation system and the absolute displacement of the superstructure located above the isolation interface. On the other hand, only can use these earthquake dampers to reduce the oscillation amplitudes and thus reduce seismic loads. The use of damping devices represents an effective solution for the rehabilitation of existing structures. Given all these acceleration reducing means considered passive, much research has been conducted for several years to develop an active control system of the response of buildings to earthquakes.

Keywords: earthquake, building, seismic forces, displacement, resonance, response.

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Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: Faroudja Meziani, Amar Kahil

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In order to study the variation in settlement of soil under a dyke dam, the modelisation in our study consists of applying an imposed displacement at the base of the mass of soil (consisting of a saturated sand). The imposed displacement follows the evolution of acceleration of the earthquake of Boumerdes 2003 in Algeria. Moreover, the gravity load is taken into consideration by taking account the specific weight of the materials constituting the dyke. The results obtained show that the gravity loads have a direct influence on the evolution of settlement, especially at the center of the dyke where these loads are higher.

Keywords: settlement, dynamic analysis, rockfill dam, effect of earthquake, soil dynamics

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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In today’s business, it is well-recognized that risk is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration before a decision is made. Studies indicate that both the number of risks faced by organizations and their potential consequences are growing. Supply chain risk management has become one of the major concerns for practitioners and researchers. Supply chain leaders and scholars are now focusing on the importance of managing supply chain risk. In order to meet the challenge of managing and mitigating supply chain risk (SCR), we must first identify the different dimensions of SCR and assess its relevant probability and severity. SCR has been classified in many different ways, and there are no consistently accepted dimensions of SCRs and several different classifications are reported in the literature. Basically, supply chain risks can be classified into two dimensions namely disruption risk and operational risk. Disruption risks are those caused by events such as bankruptcy, natural disasters and terrorist attack. Operational risks are related to supply and demand coordination and uncertainty, such as uncertain demand and uncertain supply. Disruption risks are rare but severe and hard to manage, while operational risk can be reduced through effective SCM activities. Other SCRs include supply risk, process risk, demand risk and technology risk. In fact, the disorganized classification of SCR has created confusion for SCR scholars. Moreover, practitioners need to identify and assess SCR. As such, it is important to have an overarching framework tying all these SCR dimensions together for two reasons. First, it helps researchers use these terms for communication of ideas based on the same concept. Second, a shared understanding of the SCR dimensions will support the researchers to focus on the more important research objective: operationalization of SCR, which is very important for assessing SCR. In general, fresh food supply chain is subject to certain level of risks, such as supply risk (low quality, delivery failure, hot weather etc.) and demand risk (season food imbalance, new competitors). Effective strategies to mitigate fresh food supply chain risk are required to enhance operations. Before implementing effective mitigation strategies, we need to identify the risk sources and evaluate the risk level. However, assessing the supply chain risk is not an easy matter, and existing research mainly use qualitative method, such as risk assessment matrix. To address the relevant issues, this paper aims to analyze the risk factor of the fresh food supply chain using an approach comprising both fuzzy logic and hierarchical holographic modeling techniques. This novel approach is able to take advantage the benefits of both of these well-known techniques and at the same time offset their drawbacks in certain aspects. In order to develop this integrated approach, substantial research work is needed to effectively combine these two techniques in a seamless way, To validate the proposed integrated approach, a case study in a fresh food supply chain company was conducted to verify the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.

Keywords: fresh food supply chain, fuzzy logic, hierarchical holographic modelling, operationalization, supply chain risk

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Authors: Sara Hadad Dabaghi

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Iran is among the first five earthquake prone regions of the world. During the past 90 years, more than 85 catastrophic earthquakes have happened in Iran, leaving approximately 120000 casualties. Therefore, it is necessary to apply modern anti-seismic technologies to the construction of building such earthquake prone zones. This is especially the case with the northern regions of this country where the existence Khazar and Alborz Faults necessitate the observation of building construction security. Thus, the goal of this research is to solve this problem and to design earthquake resistant buildings. The present study is descriptive-analytical carried out on a mixed method platform. The study focuses on designing Roudbar Residential Complex adopting an anti-seismic approach. It is a cross-sectional applied research since its findings could be used to solve the security problems of Roudbar building with respect to earthquakes of the regions. The causality relationship in this research could be formulated as follows: the novel anti-seismic technologies increase security and reduce damages caused by earthquakes.

Keywords: design, residential complex, inspiration, anti-seismic technology, Roudbar

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori ‎

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the technology of Computer audit played a major role in the progress and ‎prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit ‎work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer ‎audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through ‎research in this paper, we proposes the causes of audit risk in a computer ‎environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some ‎extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.‎

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information technology

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Authors: Ludivine Saint-Mard, Masato Nakajima, Gloria Senfaute

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In areas with low to moderate seismicity, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis frequently uses a Poisson approach, which assumes independence in time and space of events to determine the annual probability of earthquake occurrence. Nevertheless, in countries with high seismic rate, such as Japan, it is frequently use non-poissonian model which assumes that next earthquake occurrence depends on the date of previous one. The objective of this paper is to apply a non-poissonian models in a region of low to moderate seismicity to get a feedback on the following questions: can we overcome the lack of data to determine some key parameters?, and can we deal with uncertainties to apply largely this methodology on an industrial context?. The Brownian-Passage-Time model was applied to a fault located in France and conclude that even if the lack of data can be overcome with some calculations, the amount of uncertainties and number of scenarios leads to a numerous branches in PSHA, making this method difficult to apply on a large scale of low to moderate seismicity areas and in an industrial context.

Keywords: probabilistic seismic hazard, non-poissonian model, earthquake occurrence, low seismicity

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Authors: Oman Sukmana

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Geographically, Indonesia appears to be disaster-prone areas, whether for natural, nonnatural (man-made), or social disasters. This study aimed to construct the knowledge and social wisdom on the local community in the process of disaster management after the eruption of Mt. Kelud. This study, moreover, encompassed two major concerns: (1) the construction of knowledge and social wisdom on the local community in the process of disaster management after the eruption of Mt. Kelud; (2) the conceptual framework of disaster management on the basis of knowledge and social wisdom on the local community. The study was conducted by means of qualitative approach. The data were analyzed by using the qualitative-descriptive technique. The data collection techniques used in this study were in-depth interview, focus group discussion, observation, and documentation. It was conducted at Pandansari Village, Sub-district Ngantang, District Malang as the most at risk area of Mt. Kelud’s eruption. The purposive sampling was applied ad hoc to select the respondents including: the apparatus of Pandansari Village, the local figures of Pandansari Village, the Chief and Boards of the Forum of Disaster Risk Reduction (FPRB), the Head of Malang Regional Disaster Management Agency, and other agencies. The findings of this study showed that the local community has already possessed the adequate knowledge and social wisdom to overcome the disaster. Through the social wisdom, the local community could predict the potential eruption.

Keywords: knowledge, social and local wisdom, disaster management

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Authors: Korbi Fakhri

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The management of assets and liability is a vital task for every bank as far as a good direction allows its stability; however, a bad running forewarns its disappearance. Equity of a bank is among the most important rubrics in the liability side because, actually, these funds ensure three notably primordial functions for the survival of the bank. From one hand, equity is useful to bankroll the investments and cover the unexpected losses. From another hand, they attract the fund lessors since they inspire trust. So we are going to tackle some points including whether equity of the Islamic banks are oversized. In spite of the efforts made on the subject, the relationship between the capital and the deficiency probability has not been defined with certainty. In this article, we have elaborated a study over the nature of financial intermediation in Islamic banks by comparison to those of conventional ones. We have found a striking difference between two kinds of intermediation. We tried, from another side, to study the relationship between the capital level and deficiency risk relying on econometric model, and we have obtained a positive and significant relation between the capital and the deficiency risk for the conventional banks. This means that when the capital of these banks increases, the deficiency risk increases as well. In return, since the Islamic banks are constrained to respect the Sharia Committee as well as customers’ demands who may, in certain contracts, choose to invest their capitals in projects they are interested in. These constraints have as effects to reduce the deficiency risk even when the capital increases.

Keywords: Islamic bank, conventional bank, deficiency risk, financial intermediation

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Authors: Raju Chhetri

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Agroforestry is one of the main sources of livelihood among the people of Nepal. In particular, this is the only one mode of livelihood among the Chepangs. The monster earthquake (7.3 MW) that hit the country on the 25th of April in 2015 and many of its aftershocks had devastating effects. As a result, not only the big structures collapsed, it incurred great losses on fabrication, collection centers, schools, markets and other necessary service centers. Although there were a large number of aftershocks after the monster earthquake, the most devastating aftershock took place on 12th May, 2015, which measured 6.3 richter scale. Consequently, it caused more destruction of houses, further calamity to the lives of people, and public life got further perdition. This study was mainly carried out to find out the food security and market situation of Agroforestry product of the Chepang community in Raksirang VDC (one of the severely affected VDCs of Makwanpur district) due to the earthquake. A total of 40 households (12 percent) were randomly selected as a sample in ward number 7 only. Questionnaires and focus groups were used to gather primary data. Additional, two Focus Group Discussions (FGD) were convened in the study area to get some descriptive information on this study. Estimated 370 hectares of land, which was full of Agroforestry plantation, ruptured by the earthquake. It caused severe damages to the households, and a serious loss of food-stock, up to 60-80 percent (maize, millet, and rice). Instead of regular cereal intake, banana (Muas Paradisca) consumption was found ‘high scale’ in the emergency period. The market price of rice (37-44 NRS/Kg) increased by 18.9 percent. Some difference in the income range before and after the earthquake was observed. Before earthquake, sale of Agroforestry, and livestock products were continuing, but after the earthquake, Agroforestry product sale is the only one means of livelihood among Chepangs. Nearly 50-60 percent Agroforestry production of banana (Mass Paradisca), citrus (Citrus Lemon), pineapple (Ananus comosus) and broom grass (Thysanolaena maxima) declined, excepting for cash income from the residual. Heavy demands of Agroforestry product mentioned above lay high farm gate prices (50-100 percent) helps surveyed the community to continue livelihood from its sale. Out of the survey samples, 30 households (75 percent) respondents migrated to safe location due to land rupture, ongoing aftershocks, and landslides. Overall food security situation in this community is acute and challenging for the days to come. Immediate and long term both response from a relief agency concerning food, shelter and safe stocking of Agroforestry product is required to keep secured livelihood in Chepang community.

Keywords: earthquake, rupture, agroforestry, livelihood, indigenous, food security

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Authors: Han Gul Lee

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When water treatments utilities are designed, an initial construction site risk assessment is conducted. This helps us to understand general safety risks that each utility needs to be complemented in the designing stage. Once it’s built, an additional risk reassessment process secures and supplements its disaster management and response plan. Because of its constantly changing surroundings with city renovation and developments, the degree of various risks that each facility has to face changes. Therefore, to improve the preparedness for spill incidents or disasters, emergency managers should run spill simulations with the available scientific technologies. This research used a two-dimensional flow routing model to simulate its spill disaster scenario based on its digital elevation model (DEM) collected with drone technologies. The results of the simulations can help emergency managers to supplement their response plan with concrete situational awareness in advance. Planning based on this simulation model minimizes its potential loss and damage when an incident like earthquakes man-made disaster happens, which could eventually be a threat in a public health context. This pilot research provides an additional paradigm to increase the preparedness to spill disasters. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Environmental R&D Project on the Disaster Prevention of Environmental Facilities Program funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (No.202002860001).

Keywords: risk assessment, disaster management, water treatment utilities, situational awareness, drone technologies

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Authors: B. S. Chaudhary

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The severity and frequencies of different disasters on the globe is increasing in recent years. India is also facing the disasters in the form of drought, cyclone, earthquake, landslides, and floods. One of the major causes of disasters in northern India is flood. There are great losses and extensive damage to the agricultural crops, property, human, and animal life. This is causing environmental imbalances at places. The annual global figures for losses due to floods run into over 2 billion dollar. India is a vast country with wide variations in climate and topography. Due to widespread and heavy rainfall during the monsoon months, floods of varying magnitude occur all over the country during June to September. The magnitude depends upon the intensity of rainfall, its duration and also the ground conditions at the time of rainfall. Haryana, one of the agriculturally dominated northern states is also suffering from a number of disasters such as floods, desertification, soil erosion, land degradation etc. Earthquakes are also frequently occurring but of small magnitude so are not causing much concern and damage. Most of the damage in Haryana is due to floods. Floods in Haryana have occurred in 1978, 1988, 1993, 1995, 1998, and 2010 to mention a few. The present paper deals with the Remote Sensing and GIS applications in preparing flood risk maps in parts of Haryana State India. The satellite data of various years have been used for mapping of flood affected areas. The Flooded areas have been interpreted both visually and digitally and two classes-flooded and receded water/ wet areas have been identified for each year. These have been analyzed in GIS environment to prepare the risk maps. This shows the areas of high, moderate and low risk depending on the frequency of flood witness. The floods leave a trail of suffering in the form of unhygienic conditions due to improper sanitation, water logging, filth littered in the area, degradation of materials and unsafe drinking water making the people prone to many type diseases in short and long run. Attempts have also been made to enumerate the causes of floods. The suggestions are given for mitigating the fury of floods and proper management issues related to evacuation and safe places nearby.

Keywords: flood mapping, GIS, Haryana, India, remote sensing, space technology

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Authors: Dipak Sonawane, Sudarshan Daga, Somesh Gupta

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Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a very precise and consistent approach to defining the likelihood, consequence and severity of a major incident/accident. A variety of hazardous cargoes in bulk, such as hydrocarbons and flammable/toxic chemicals, are handled at various ports. It is well known that most of the operations are hazardous, having the potential of damaging property, causing injury/loss of life and, in some cases, the threat of environmental damage. In order to ensure adequate safety towards life, environment and property, the application of scientific methods such as QRA is inevitable. By means of these methods, comprehensive hazard identification, risk assessment and appropriate implementation of Risk Control measures can be carried out. In this paper, the authors, based on their extensive experience in Risk Analysis for ports and harbors, have exhibited how QRA can be used in practice to minimize and contain risk to tolerable levels. A specific case involving the operation for unloading of hydrocarbon at a port is presented. The exercise provides confidence that the method of QRA, as proposed by the authors, can be used appropriately for the identification of hazards and risk assessment of Ports and Terminals.

Keywords: quantitative risk assessment, hazard assessment, consequence analysis, individual risk, societal risk

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Authors: Emily Moskwa, Delene Weber, Jacob Arnold, Guy M. Robinson, Douglas K. Bardsley

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Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire are key contemporary concerns, with a growing literature exploring these issues from a social research perspective. Efforts range from narrowly focused examinations, such as comparing the level of community support for vegetation clearance with that of controlled burning, to broader considerations of what constitutes effective fire management policy and education campaigns. However, little analysis is available that integrates the social component of risk mitigation and the influence of educational materials with the biodiversity conservation strategies so often needed in fire-prone ecosystems found on the periphery of urban areas. Indeed many communities living on the fringe of Australian cities face major issues relating to an increased risk of wildfire events and a decline in local biodiversity. Inadequate policy and planning, and a lack of awareness or information, exacerbate this risk. This has brought forward an emerging governance challenge that requires the mitigation of wildfire risk while simultaneously supporting improved conservation practices in these urban-fringe areas. Focusing on the perceptions and experiences of residents of the Lower Eyre Peninsula in South Australia, this study analyses data collected from a series of semi-structured interviews with landholders (n=20) living in rural and urban-fringe areas surrounding the city of Port Lincoln, a city with a growing population and one that has faced a number of very large fires in recent years. In South Australia, new policies have assigned increased responsibility on individual landholders to manage their land and prepare themselves for a wildfire event, potentially to the detriment of the surrounding native vegetation. Our findings indicate the value of gaining a more nuanced understanding of the perceptions and behaviours of landholders living in areas of high fire risk, who often choose to live there in order to be close to the natural environment. Many interviewees demonstrated a high awareness of wildfire risk as a result of their past experience with fire, and the majority considered themselves to be well-prepared in the event of a future fire. Community interactions and educational programs were found to be effective in raising awareness of risk; however, negative trust relationships with government authorities and low exposure to information concerning biodiversity resulted in an overall misunderstanding of the relationship between risk mitigation and biodiversity protection. The study offers insights into how catastrophic fires are reframing perceptions of what constitutes effective vegetation management. It provides recommendations to assist with the development of education strategies that concurrently address wildfire management and biodiversity conservation, and contribute towards environmentally-informed and risk conscious governance.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, risk, peri-urban planning, wildfire management

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Authors: Raj Banerjee, Aniruddha Sengupta

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An earthquake event, associated with a typical fault rupture, initiates at the source, propagates through a rock or soil medium and finally daylights at a surface which might be a populous city. The detrimental effects of an earthquake are often quantified in terms of the responses of superstructures resting on the soil. Hence, there is a need for the estimation of amplification of the bedrock motions due to the influence of local site conditions. In the present study, field borehole log data of Mangalwadi and Walkeswar sites in Mumbai city are considered. The data consists of variation of SPT N-value with the depth of soil. A correlation between shear wave velocity (Vₛ) and SPT N value for various soil profiles of Mumbai city has been developed using various existing correlations which is used further for site response analysis. MATLAB program is developed for studying the ground response analysis by performing two dimensional linear and equivalent linear analysis for some of the typical Mumbai soil sites using pure shear (Multi Point Constraint) boundary condition. The model is validated in linear elastic and equivalent linear domain using the popular commercial program, DEEPSOIL. Three actual earthquake motions are selected based on their frequency contents and durations and scaled to a PGA of 0.16g for the present ground response analyses. The results are presented in terms of peak acceleration time history with depth, peak shear strain time history with depth, Fourier amplitude versus frequency, response spectrum at the surface etc. The peak ground acceleration amplification factors are found to be about 2.374, 3.239 and 2.4245 for Mangalwadi site and 3.42, 3.39, 3.83 for Walkeswar site using 1979 Imperial Valley Earthquake, 1989 Loma Gilroy Earthquake and 1987 Whitter Narrows Earthquake, respectively. In the absence of any site-specific response spectrum for the chosen sites in Mumbai, the generated spectrum at the surface may be utilized for the design of any superstructure at these locations.

Keywords: deepsoil, ground response analysis, multi point constraint, response spectrum

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for the easy creation of an institutional risk profile for endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support risk factors set up with just the most important values that are important for a particular organisation. Subsequently, the risk profile employs fuzzy models and associated configurations for the file format metadata aggregator to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment level for file formats. Our goal is to make use of a domain expert knowledge base aggregated from a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation and analysis of risk factors for a requried dimension. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor information and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is meant to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and automatically aggregated file format metadata from linked open data sources. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: digital information management, file format, endangerment analysis, fuzzy models

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Authors: Sudikshya Bhandari, Jonathan K. London

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Barpak in northern Nepal represents a unique identity expressed through the local rituals, values, lifeways and the styles of vernacular architecture. The traditional residential buildings and construction practices adopted by the dominant ethnic groups: Ghales and Gurungs, reflect environmental, social, cultural and economic concerns. However, most of these buildings did not survive the Gorkha earthquake in 2015 that made many residents skeptical about their strength to resist future disasters. This led Barpak residents to prefer modern housing designs primarily for the strength but additionally for convenience and access to earthquake relief funds. Post-earthquake reconstruction has transformed the cohesive community, developed over hundreds of years into a haphazard settlement with the imposition of externally-driven building models. Housing guidelines provided for the community reconstruction and earthquake resilience have been used as a singular template, similar to other communities on different geographical locations. The design and construction of these buildings do not take into account the local, historical, environmental, social, cultural and economic context of Barpak. In addition to the physical transformation of houses and the settlement, the consequences continue to develop challenges to sustainability. This paper identifies the major challenges for environmental sustainability with the construction of new houses in post-earthquake Barpak. Mixed methods such as interviews, focus groups, site observation, and documentation, and analysis of housing and neighborhood design have been used for data collection. The discernible changing situation of this settlement due to the new housing has included reduced climatic adaptation and thermal comfort, increased consumption of agricultural land and water, minimized use of local building materials, and an increase in energy demand. The research has identified that reconstruction housing practices happening in Barpak, while responding to crucial needs for disaster recovery and resilience, are also leading this community towards an unsustainable future. This study has also integrated environmental, social, cultural and economic parameters into an assessment framework that could be used to develop place-based design guidelines in the context of other post-earthquake reconstruction efforts. This framework seeks to minimize the unintended repercussions of unsustainable reconstruction interventions, support the vitality of vernacular architecture and traditional lifeways and respond to context-based needs in coordination with residents.

Keywords: earthquake, environment, reconstruction, sustainability

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Authors: Ehsan Sadie

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Today, after devastating earthquakes and many deaths due to the destruction of residential buildings, the scientific community has attracted the attention of the existing structures to strengthen and standardize construction. Due to the fact that the existing buildings are sometimes constructed without sufficient knowledge of the correct design, and even the buildings built according to the old standards today need to be reinforced due to changes in some provisions of the regulations. The location of some countries in the seismic zone has always caused a lot of human and economic damage throughout history, and attention to the strengthening of buildings, important facilities, and vital arteries is the result of this situation. Engineers' efforts to design earthquake-resistant buildings began when decades had passed since the development of design criteria and ensuring the safety of buildings against loads. New methods, mass reduction, reducing the weight of the building, use of moving structures to deal with earthquakes, as well as the use of new technologies in this field, including the use of dampers, composites in the reinforcement of structures are discussed, and appropriate solutions have been provided in each of the fields.

Keywords: brace, concrete structure, damper, earthquake, FRP reinforcement, lightweight material, retrofitting, seismic isolator, shear wall, steel structure

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Authors: Syed Sameer Aga, Saniya Nissar

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The Xeroderma pigmentosum group D gene (XPD) plays a key role in nucleotide excision repair (NER) pathway of the damaged DNA. Genetic polymorphisms in the coding region of the XPD gene may alter DNA repair capacity of the protein and hence can modulate the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The aim of the study was to determine the genetic association of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) development. 120 CRC patients and 160 normal controls were assessed for genotype frequencies of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism using PCR-RFLP technique. We observed a significant association (p < 0.05) between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of developing CRC (p < 0.05). Additionally, Gln/Gln genotype of the XPD gene doubled the risk for the development of CRC [p < 0.05; OR=2.25 95% CI (1.07-4.7)]. Our results suggest that there is a significant association between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of CRC.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, polymorphism, RFLP, DNA Repair, NER, XPD

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Authors: Yuri Katz, Kun Liu, Arunram Atmacharan

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Due to illiquidity, mispricing on Credit Markets is inevitable. This creates huge challenges to banks and investors as they seek to find new ways of risk valuation and portfolio management in a post-credit crisis world. Here, we analyze the difference in behavior of the spread-to-maturity in investment and high-yield categories of US corporate bonds between 2014 and 2023. Deviation from the theoretical dependency of this measure in the universe under study allows to identify multiple cases of mispriced credit risk. Remarkably, we observe mispriced bonds in both categories of credit ratings. This identification is supported by the application of the state-of-the-art machine learning model in more than 90% of cases. Noticeably, the ML-driven model-based forecasting of a category of bond’s credit ratings demonstrate an excellent out-of-sample accuracy (AUC = 98%). We believe that these results can augment conventional valuations of credit portfolios.

Keywords: credit risk, credit ratings, bond pricing, spread-to-maturity, machine learning

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Authors: Hela Ghali, Oumayma Ben Amor, Salwa Khefacha, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Sirine Frigui, Meriam Tourki Dhidah, Lamine Dhidah, Houyem Said Laatiri

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Background: Blood exposure accidents are the most common problem in hospitals that threaten healthcare professionals with a high risk of infectious complications which weighs heavily on health systems worldwide. Paramedics are the highest risk group due to the nature of their daily activities. We aimed to determine knowledge and attitudes about the management of blood-exposure accidents among nurses and technicians in two pediatric departments. Materials/Methods: This is a cross-sectional descriptive study conducted on March 2017, carried out with the care staff of the pediatric ward of the Farhat Hached Teaching Hospital of Sousse and pediatric surgery of the Fattouma Bourguiba University Hospital in Monastir, using a pre- tested and self-administered questionnaire. Data entry and analysis were performed using Excel software. Results: The response rate was 85.1%. A female predominance (82.5%) was reported among respondents with a sex ratio of 0.21. 80% of the participants were under 35 years old. Seniority of less than 10 years was found in 77.5% of respondents. Only 22.5% knew the definition of a blood- exposure accident. 100% and 95% of participants reported the relative risk, respectively, to hepatitis and AIDS viruses. However, only 15% recognized the severity factors of a blood-exposure accident. Hygiene compliance was the most important dimension for almost the entire population for the prevention. On the other hand, only 12.5% knew the meaning of 'standard precautions' and ¼ considered them necessary for at-risk patients only. 40% reported being exposed at least once, among them, 87.5% used betadine, and 77.5% said that anti-infectious chemoprophylaxis is necessary regardless of the patient's serological status. However, 52.5% did not know the official reporting circuit of management of blood-exposure accident in their institutions. Conclusion: For better management of risks in hospitals and an improvement of the safety of the care, a reinforcement of the sensibilization of the caregivers with regard to the risks of blood exposure accident is necessary, while developing their knowledge to act in security.

Keywords: attitudes, blood-exposure accident, knowledge, pediatric department

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: Noga Bregman

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Accurate and efficient earthquake detection and phase picking are crucial for seismic hazard assessment and emergency response. This study introduces EQMamba, a deep-learning method that combines the strengths of the Earthquake Transformer and the Mamba model for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking. EQMamba leverages the computational efficiency of Mamba layers to process longer seismic sequences while maintaining a manageable model size. The proposed architecture integrates convolutional neural networks (CNNs), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and Mamba blocks. The model employs an encoder composed of convolutional layers and max pooling operations, followed by residual CNN blocks for feature extraction. Mamba blocks are applied to the outputs of BiLSTM blocks, efficiently capturing long-range dependencies in seismic data. Separate decoders are used for earthquake detection, P-wave picking, and S-wave picking. We trained and evaluated EQMamba using a subset of the STEAD dataset, a comprehensive collection of labeled seismic waveforms. The model was trained using a weighted combination of binary cross-entropy loss functions for each task, with the Adam optimizer and a scheduled learning rate. Data augmentation techniques were employed to enhance the model's robustness. Performance comparisons were conducted between EQMamba and the EQTransformer over 20 epochs on this modest-sized STEAD subset. Results demonstrate that EQMamba achieves superior performance, with higher F1 scores and faster convergence compared to EQTransformer. EQMamba reached F1 scores of 0.8 by epoch 5 and maintained higher scores throughout training. The model also exhibited more stable validation performance, indicating good generalization capabilities. While both models showed lower accuracy in phase-picking tasks compared to detection, EQMamba's overall performance suggests significant potential for improving seismic data analysis. The rapid convergence and superior F1 scores of EQMamba, even on a modest-sized dataset, indicate promising scalability for larger datasets. This study contributes to the field of earthquake engineering by presenting a computationally efficient and accurate method for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking. Future work will focus on incorporating Mamba layers into the P and S pickers and further optimizing the architecture for seismic data specifics. The EQMamba method holds the potential for enhancing real-time earthquake monitoring systems and improving our understanding of seismic events.

Keywords: earthquake, detection, phase picking, s waves, p waves, transformer, deep learning, seismic waves

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Abtin Farokhipanah

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In recent years, analysis of structures is based on ductility design in contradictory to strength design in surveying earthquake effects on structures. ASCE07-10 code offers to intensify relative drifts calculated from a linear analysis with Cd which is called (Deflection Amplification Factor) to obtain the real relative drifts which can be calculated using nonlinear analysis. This lateral drift should be limited to the code boundaries. Calculation of this amplification factor for different structures, comparing with ASCE07-10 code and offering the best coefficient are the purposes of this research. Following our target, short and tall building steel structures with various earthquake resistant systems in linear and nonlinear analysis should be surveyed, so these questions will be answered: 1. Does the Response Modification Coefficient (R) have a meaningful relation to Deflection Amplification Factor? 2. Does structure height, seismic zone, response spectrum and similar parameters have an effect on the conversion coefficient of linear analysis to real drift of structure? The procedure has used to conduct this research includes: (a) Study on earthquake resistant systems, (b) Selection of systems and modeling, (c) Analyzing modeled systems using linear and nonlinear methods, (d) Calculating conversion coefficient for each system and (e) Comparing conversion coefficients with the code offered ones and concluding results.

Keywords: ASCE07-10 code, deflection amplification factor, earthquake engineering, lateral displacement of structures, response modification coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Noureddine Ben Ayed, Abdelkader Soumaya, Saïd Maouche, Ali Kadri, Mongi Gueddiche, Hayet Khayati-Ammar, Ahmed Braham

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The archaeological monument of Utica, located in north-eastern Tunisia, was founded (8th century BC) By the Phoenicians as a port installed on the trade route connecting Phoenicia and the Straits of Gibraltar in the Mediterranean Sea. The flourishment of this city as an important settlement during the Roman period was followed by a sudden abandonment, disuse and progressive oblivion in the first half of the fifth century AD. This decadence can be attributed to the destructive earthquake of 5 July 408 - 410 AD, affecting this historic city as documented in 1906 by the seismologist Fernand De Montessus De Ballore. The magnitude of the Utica earthquake was estimated at 6.8 by the Tunisian National Institute of Meteorology (INM). In order to highlight the damage caused by this earthquake, a field survey was carried out at the Utica ruins to detect and analyse the earthquake archaeological effects (EAEs) using structural geology methods. This approach allowed us to highlight several structural damages, including: (1) folded mortar pavements, (2) cracks affecting the mosaic and walls of a water basin in the "House of the Grand Oecus", (3) displaced columns, (4) block extrusion in masonry walls, (5) undulations in mosaic pavements, (6) tilted walls. The structural analysis of these EAEs and data measurements reveal a seismic cause for all evidence of deformation in the Utica monument. The maximum horizontal strain of the ground (e.g. SHmax) inferred from the building oriented damage in Utica shows a NNW-SSE direction under a compressive tectonic regime. For the seismogenic source of this earthquake, we propose the active E-W to NE-SW trending Utique - Ghar El Melh reverse fault, passing through the Utica Monument and extending towards the Ghar El Melh Lake, as the causative tectonic structure. The active fault trace is well supported by instrumental seismicity, geophysical data (e.g., gravity, seismic profiles) and geomorphological analyses. In summary, we find that the archaeoseismic records detected at Utica are similar to those observed at many other archaeological sites affected by destructive ancient earthquakes around the world. Furthermore, the calculated orientation of the average maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) closely match the state of the actual stress field, as highlighted by some earthquake focal mechanisms in this region.

Keywords: Tunisia, utica, seimogenic fault, archaeological earthquake effects

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Authors: Al-Amin, Huanjun Jiang, Anayat Ali

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Reinforced concrete frames (RC), especially Ordinary RC frames, are prone to structural failures/collapse during seismic events, leading to a large proportion of debris from the structures, which obstructs adjacent areas, including streets. These blocked areas severely impede post-earthquake resilience. This study uses computational simulation (FEM) to investigate the amount of debris generated by the seismic collapse of an ordinary reinforced concrete moment frame building and its effects on the adjacent pedestrian and road network. A three-story ordinary reinforced concrete frame building, primarily designed for gravity load and earthquake resistance, was selected for analysis. Sixteen different ground motions were applied and scaled up until the total collapse of the tested building to evaluate the failure mode under various seismic events. Four types of collapse direction were identified through the analysis, namely aligned (positive and negative) and skewed (positive and negative), with aligned collapse being more predominant than skewed cases. The amount and distribution of debris around the collapsed building were assessed to investigate the interaction between collapsed buildings and adjacent street networks. An interaction was established between a building that collapsed in an aligned direction and the adjacent pedestrian walkway and narrow street located in an unplanned old city. The FEM model was validated against an existing shaking table test. The presented results can be utilized to simulate the interdependency between the debris generated from the collapse of seismic-prone buildings and the resilience of street networks. These findings provide insights for better disaster planning and resilient infrastructure development in earthquake-prone regions.

Keywords: building collapse, earthquake-induced debris, ORC moment resisting frame, street network

Procedia PDF Downloads 85