Search results for: conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model

Authors: Hui Wu, Ye Li

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Applying the structural break estimation method proposed by Perron and Bai (1998) to the housing price growth rate of top 5 MSAs in the Texas area, this paper estimated the structural break date for the growth rate of housing prices index. As shown in the estimation results, the break dates for each region are quite different, which indicates the heterogeneity of the housing market in response to macroeconomic conditions.

Keywords: structural break, housing prices index, ADF test, linear model

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Authors: Alice Civera, Mattia Cattaneo, Michele Meoli, Stefano Paleari

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Despite the fact that more equal access to higher education has been an objective public policy for several decades, little is known about the effectiveness of alternative means for achieving such goal. Indeed, nowadays, high level of graduate population can be observed both in countries with the high and low level of fees, or high and low level of public expenditure in higher education. This paper surveys the extant literature providing some background on the economic concepts of the higher education market, and reviews key determinants of demand and supply. A theoretical model of aggregate demand and supply of higher education is derived, with the aim to facilitate the understanding of the challenges in today’s higher education systems, as well as the opportunities for development. The model is validated on some exemplary case studies describing the different relationship between the level of public investment and levels of graduate population and helps to derive general implications. In addition, using a two-stage least squares model, we build a macroeconomic model of supply and demand for European higher education. The model allows interpreting policies shifting either the supply or the demand for higher education, and allows taking into consideration contextual conditions with the aim of comparing divergent policies under a common framework. Results show that the same policy objective (i.e., increasing graduate population) can be obtained by shifting either the demand function (i.e., by strengthening student aid) or the supply function (i.e., by directly supporting higher education institutions). Under this theoretical perspective, the level of tuition fees is irrelevant, and empirically we can observe high levels of graduate population in both countries with high (i.e., the UK) or low (i.e., Germany) levels of tuition fees. In practice, this model provides a conceptual framework to help better understanding what are the external conditions that need to be considered, when planning a policy for increasing graduate population. Extrapolating a policy from results in different countries, under this perspective, is a poor solution when contingent factors are not addressed. The second implication of this conceptual framework is that policies addressing the supply or the demand function needs to address different contingencies. In other words, a government aiming at increasing graduate population needs to implement complementary policies, designing them according to the side of the market that is interested. For example, a ‘supply-driven’ intervention, through the direct financial support of higher education institutions, needs to address the issue of institutions’ moral hazard, by creating incentives to supply higher education services in efficient conditions. By contrast, a ‘demand-driven’ policy, providing student aids, need to tackle the students’ moral hazard, by creating an incentive to responsible behavior.

Keywords: graduates, higher education, higher education policies, tuition fees

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Authors: F. S. Alavi

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In this study, MATLAB engineering software was used in order to model an industrial Ambient Air Vaporizer (AAV), considering combined convection and conduction heat transfers from the fins and the tube. The developed theoretical model was then used to investigate the effects of various design factors such as gas flow rate, ambient air temperature, fin thickness and etc. on total vaporizer ‘s length required. Cryogenic liquid nitrogen was selected as an input fluid, in all cases. According to the results, increasing the inlet fluid flow rate has direct linear effect on the total required length of vaporizer. Vaporizer’s required length decreases by increasing the size of fin radius or size of fin thickness. The dependency of vaporizer’s length on fin thickness’ size reduces at higher values of thickness and gradually converge to zero. For low flow rates, internal convection heat transfer coefficient depends directly on gas flow rate but it becomes constant, independent on flow rate after a specific value. As the ambient air temperature increases, the external heat transfer coefficient also increases and the total required length of vaporizer decreases.

Keywords: heat exchanger, modeling, heat transfer, design

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: M. Abdullah, Al-Wadud

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Sensor-based activity recognition systems usually accounts which sensors have been activated to perform an activity. The system then combines the conditional probabilities of those sensors to represent different activities and takes the decision based on that. However, the information about the sensors which are not activated may also be of great help in deciding which activity has been performed. This paper proposes an approach where the sensory data related to both usage and non-usage of objects are utilized to make the classification of activities. Experimental results also show the promising performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Naïve Bayesian, based classification, activity recognition, sensor data, object-usage model

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Authors: Ya-Hui Wang

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Lower speech therapy rate of tracheostomized patient was noted in comparison with previous researches. This study is aim to shed light on the referral status of speech therapy in those patients in Taiwan. This study developed an analysis for the size and key characteristics of the population of tracheostomized in-patient in the Taiwan. Method: We analyzed National Healthcare Insurance data (The Collaboration Center of Health Information Application, CCHIA) from Jan 1 2010 to Dec 31 2010. Result: over ages 3, number of tracheostomized in-patient is directly proportional to age. A high service loading was observed in North region in comparison with other regions. Only 4.87% of the tracheostomized in-patients were referred for speech therapy, and 1.9% for swallow examination, 2.5% for communication evaluation.

Keywords: refer, speech therapy, training, rehabilitation

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Authors: Retno Ambarwati Sigit Lestari, Wahyudi Budi Sediawan, Sarto Sarto

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This study focused on the removal of sulfide from liquid solution using biofilm on packed bed of salak fruit seeds. Biofilter operation of 444 hours consists of 6 phases of operation. Each phase lasted for approximately 72 hours to 82 hours and run at various inlet concentration and flow rate. The highest removal efficiency is 92.01%, at the end of phase 7 at the inlet concentration of 60 ppm and the flow rate of 30 mL min-1. Mathematic model of sulfide removal was proposed to describe the operation of biofilter. The model proposed can be applied to describe the removal of sulfide liquid using biofilter in packed bed. The simulation results the value of the parameters in process. The value of the rate maximum spesific growth is 4.15E-8 s-1, Saturation constant is 9.1E-8 g cm-3, mass transfer coefisient of liquid is 0.5 cm s-1, Henry’s constant is 0.007, and mass of microorganisms growth to mass of sulfide comsumed is 30. The value of the rate maximum spesific growth in early process is 0.00000004 s-1.

Keywords: biofilm, packed bed, removal, sulfide, salak fruit seeds.

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Authors: Kangujam Monika, Kiranbala Devi Thokchom, Soibam Sandhyarani Devi

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Earthquake is a major natural hazard in India. Manipur, located in the North-Eastern Region of India, is one of the most affected location in the region prone to earthquakes since it lies in an area where Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet and is in seismic Zone V which is the most severe intensity zone, according to IS Code. Some recent earthquakes recorded in Manipur are M 6.7 epicenter at Tamenglong (January 4, 2016), M 5.2 epicenter at Churachandpur (February 24, 2017) and most recent M 4.4 epicenter at Thoubal (June 19, 2017). In these recent earthquakes, some houses and buildings were damaged, landslides were also occurred. A field study was carried out. An overview of the various causal factors involved in triggering of earthquake in Manipur has been discussed. It is found that improper planning, poor design, negligence, structural irregularities, poor quality materials, construction of foundation without proper site soil investigation and non-implementation of remedial measures, etc., are possibly the main causal factors for damage in Manipur during earthquake. The study also suggests, though the proper design of structure and foundation along with soil investigation, ground improvement methods, use of modern techniques of construction, counseling with engineer, mass awareness, etc., might be effective solution to control the hazard in many locations. An overview on the analysis pertaining to earthquake in Manipur together with on-going detailed site specific geotechnical investigation were presented.

Keywords: Manipur, earthquake, hazard, structure, soil

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Authors: H. Namazi, H. T. N. Kuan

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Fick's first law relates the diffusive flux to the concentration field, by postulating that the flux goes from regions of high concentration to regions of low concentration, with a magnitude that is proportional to the concentration gradient (spatial derivative). It is clear that the diffusion of flux cannot be instantaneous and should be some time delay in this propagation. But Fick’s first law doesn’t consider this delay which results in some errors especially when there is a considerable time delay in the process. In this paper, we introduce a time delay to Fick’s first law. By this modification, we consider that the diffusion of flux cannot be instantaneous. In order to verify this claim an application sample in fluid diffusion is discussed and the results of modified Fick’s first law, Fick’s first law and the experimental results are compared. The results of this comparison stand for the accuracy of the modified model. The modified model can be used in any application where the time delay has considerable value and neglecting its effect reflects in undesirable results.

Keywords: Fick's first law, flux, diffusion, time delay, modified Fick’s first law

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Authors: K. Jafar, R. Nazar, A. Ishak, I. Pop

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The present analysis considers the steady stagnation point flow and heat transfer towards a permeable sheet in an upper-convected Maxwell (UCM) electrically conducting fluid, with a constant magnetic field applied in the transverse direction to flow, and a local heat generation within the boundary layer with a heat generation rate proportional to (T-T_inf)^p. Using a similarity transformation, the governing system of partial differential equations is first transformed into a system of ordinary differential equations, which is then solved numerically using a finite-difference scheme known as the Keller-box method. Numerical results are obtained for the flow and thermal fields for various values of the shrinking/stretching parameter lambda, the magnetic parameter M, the elastic parameter K, the Prandtl number Pr, the suction parameter s, the heat generation parameter Q, and the exponent p. The results indicate the existence of dual solutions for the shrinking sheet up to a critical value lambda_c whose value depends on the value of M, K, and s. In the presence of internal heat absorbtion (Q<0), the surface heat transfer rate decreases with increasing p but increases with parameter Q and s, when the sheet is either stretched or shrunk.

Keywords: magnetohydrodynamic (MHD), boundary layer flow, UCM fluid, stagnation point, shrinking sheet

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Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim

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A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic

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Authors: Jeremiah L. Chukwuneke, Obiora E. Anisiji, Chinonso H. Achebe, Paul C. Okolie

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This paper developed a mathematical model of a commercial biogas plant for urban area clean energy requirement. It identified biodegradable waste materials like domestic/city refuse as economically viable alternative source of energy. The mathematical formulation of the proposed gas plant follows the fundamental principles of thermodynamics, and further analyses were accomplished to develop an algorithm for evaluating the plant performance preferably in terms of daily production capacity. In addition, the capacity of the plant is equally estimated for a given cycle of operation and presented in time histories. A nominal 1500 m3 power gas plant was studied characteristically and its performance efficiency evaluated. It was observed that the rate of bio gas production is essentially a function of the reactor temperature, pH, substrate concentration, rate of degradation of the biomass, and the accumulation of matter in the system due to bacteria growth. The results of this study conform to a very large extent with reported empirical data of some existing plant and further model validations were conducted in line with classical records found in literature.

Keywords: energy and mass conservation, specific growth rate, thermophilic bacteria, temperature, rate of bio gas production

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Authors: K. Kiniwa, S. Kitagawa, M. Kawamoto, H. Uchiyama

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This study aims to identify phenomenologically the embodiment of soccer in order to analyze soccer games. In this paper the authors focused on the embodiment of sports and the embodiment of the goal type ball games of team sports. The authors revealed that the embodiment of sports is represented by inverse proportional body. It is possible for this structure (body scheme) of intercorporeality of sports to be compared to the symbolic figure of Uroboros which is a monster connected the tails of two snakes. The embodiment of the goal type ball games of team sports has dependency on situation and complexity. In doing this, it revealed that soccer is sensitive and emotional sports.

Keywords: intercorporeality, structure, body scheme, Uroboros, inverse proportional body, dependency on situation, complexity

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Authors: Pavel Zlabek, Vaclav Mentl

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The fatigue crack growth rate evaluation is a basic experimental characteristic when assessment o f the remaining lifetime is needed. Within the repair welding technology project, the crack growth rate at cyclic loading was measured in base and weld metals and in the situation when cracks were initiated in base metal and grew into the weld metal through heat-affected zone and back to the base metal. Two welding technologies were applied and specimens in as-welded state and after heat treatment were tested. Fatigue crack growth rate measurement was performed on CrMoV pressure vessel steel and the tests were performed at room temperature. The crack growth rate was measured on CCT test specimens (see figure) for both the base and weld metals and also in the case of crack subsequent transition through all the weld zones. A 500 kN MTS controlled electro-hydraulic testing machine and Model 632.13C-20 MTS extensometer were used to perform the tests.

Keywords: cracks, fatigue, steels, weldments

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Authors: Reza Behtash, Enayat Enayati

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The pool condenser is in principal a horizontal reactor, containing a bundle of U-tubes for heat exchange, coupling to low pressure steam drum. Condensation of gas takes place in a condensed pool around the tubes of the condenser. The heat of condensation is removed by the generation of low pressure steam on the inner tube side of the bundle. A circulation pump transfers ample boiler feed water to these tubes. The pressure of the steam generated influenced the heat flux. Changing the steam pressure means changing the steam condensate temperature and therefore the temperature difference between the tube side and the shell side. 2NH3 + CO2 ↔ NH2COONH4 + Heat. This reaction is exothermic and according to Le Chatelier's Principle if the heat is not removed enough, it will come back to left side and generate of the gas and so the Urea synthesis pressure will rise. The most principal reasons for high Urea synthesis pressure are non proportional of Ammonia/Dioxide Carbon ratio and too high a pressure in low pressure steam drum. Proportional of Ammonia/Dioxide Carbon ratio is 3.0 and normal pressure for low pressure steam drum is 4.5 bar. As regards these conditions were proportional but we could not control the synthesis pressure the plant endangered, therefore we had to control the steam drum pressure at about 3.5 bar. While we opened the pool condenser, we found the partition plate used to divide inlet and outlet boiler feed water to tubes, was broken partially and so amount of boiler feed water bypass the tubes and the heat was not removed totally and it resulted in the generation of gases and high pressure in synthesis.

Keywords: boiler, pressure, pool condenser, partition plate

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Authors: Huynh Viet Khai, Mitsuyasu Yabe

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The study investigated the economic value of biodiversity attributes that could provide policy-makers reliable information to estimate welfare losses due to biodiversity reductions and analyse the trade-off between biodiversity and economics. In order to obtain the non-market benefits of biodiversity conservation, an indirect utility function and willingness to pay for biodiversity attributes were applied using the approach of choice modelling with the analysis of conditional logit model. The study found that Mekong Delta residents accepted their willingness to pay for VND 913 monthly for a one percent increase in healthy vegetation, VND 360 for an additional mammal species and VND 2,440 to avoid the welfare losses of 100 local farmers.

Keywords: choice modelling, genetic resources, wetland conservation, marginal willingness to pay

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Authors: Shank Kulkarni, Alireza Tabarraei

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The fantastic properties of polyurea such as flexibility, durability, and chemical resistance have brought it a wide range of application in various industries. Effective prediction of the response of polyurea under different loading and environmental conditions necessitates the development of an accurate constitutive model. Similar to most polymers, the behavior of polyurea depends on both strain and strain rate. Therefore, the constitutive model should be able to capture both these effects on the response of polyurea. To achieve this objective, in this paper, a nonlinear hyper-viscoelastic constitutive model is developed by the superposition of a hyperelastic and a viscoelastic model. The proposed constitutive model can capture the behavior of polyurea under compressive loading conditions at various strain rates. Four parameter Ogden model and Mooney Rivlin model are used to modeling the hyperelastic behavior of polyurea. The viscoelastic behavior is modeled using both a three-parameter standard linear solid (SLS) model and a K-BKZ model. Comparison of the modeling results with experiments shows that Odgen and SLS model can more accurately predict the behavior of polyurea. The material parameters of the model are found by curve fitting of the proposed model to the uniaxial compression test data. The proposed model can closely reproduce the stress-strain behavior of polyurea for strain rates up to 6500 /s.

Keywords: constitutive modelling, ogden model, polyurea, SLS model, uniaxial compression test

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Authors: Adeola Adenikinju, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Lateef O. Akinpelu, Dilinna L. Nwobi

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Since the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007), the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has made public its fiscal budget and the subsequent implementation report. A critical review of these documents shows significant variations in the five macroeconomic variables which are inputs in each Presidential budget; oil Production target (mbpd), oil price ($), Foreign exchange rate(N/$), and Gross Domestic Product growth rate (%) and inflation rate (%). This results in underperformance of the Federal budget expected output in terms of non-oil and oil revenue aggregates. This paper evaluates first the existing variance between budgeted and actuals, then the relationship and causality between the determinants of Federal fiscal budget assumptions, and finally the determinants of FGN’s Gross Oil Revenue. The paper employed the use of descriptive statistics, the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and a Profit oil probabilistic model to achieve these objectives. This model permits for both the static and dynamic effect(s) of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable, unlike a static model that accounts for static or fixed effect(s) only. It offers a technique for checking the existence of a long-run relationship between variables, unlike other tests of cointegration, such as the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, which consider only non-stationary series that are integrated of the same order. Finally, even with small sample size, the ARDL model is known to generate a valid result, for it is the dependent variable and is the explanatory variable. The results showed that there is a long-run relationship between oil revenue as a proxy for budget performance and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a short-run relationship between oil revenue and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a long-run relationship between non-oil revenue and its determinants; inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and foreign exchange rate. The grangers’ causality test results show that there is a mono-directional causality between oil revenue and its determinants. The Federal budget assumptions only explain 68% of oil revenue and 62% of non-oil revenue. There is a mono-directional causality between non-oil revenue and its determinants. The Profit oil Model describes production sharing contracts, joint ventures, and modified carrying arrangements as the greatest contributors to FGN’s gross oil revenue. This provides empirical justification for the selected macroeconomic variables used in the Federal budget design and performance evaluation. The research recommends other variables, debt and money supply, be included in the Federal budget design to explain the Federal budget revenue performance further.

Keywords: ARDL, budget performance, oil price, oil quantity, oil revenue

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Authors: H. C. Ozdamar , O. Kilic-Erkek, H. E. Akkaya, E. Kilic-Toprak, M. Bor-Kucukatay

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Nordic hamstring exercise (NHE) is used to increase hamstring muscle strength, prevent injuries. The aim of this study was to reveal the acute, long-term effects of 10-week NHE, followed by 5, 10-week detraining on anthropometric measurements, flexibility, anaerobic power, muscle architecture, damage, fatigue, oxidative stress, plasma viscosity (PV), blood lactate levels. 40 sedentary, healthy male volunteers underwent 10 weeks of progressive NHE followed by 5, 10 weeks of detraining. Muscle architecture was determined by ultrasonography, stiffness by strain elastography. Anaerobic power was assessed by double-foot standing, long jump, vertical jump, flexibility by sit-lie, hamstring flexibility tests. Creatine kinase activity, oxidant/antioxidant parameters were measured from venous blood by a commercial kit, whereas PV was determined using a cone-plate viscometer. The blood lactate level was measured from the fingertip. NHE allowed subjects to lose weight, this effect was reversed by detraining for 5 weeks. Exercise caused an increase in knee angles measured by a goniometer, which wasn’t affected by detraining. 10-week NHE caused a partially reversed increase in anaerobic performance upon detraining. NHE resulted in increment of biceps femoris long head (BFub) area, pennation angle, which was reversed by detraining of 10-weeks. Blood lactate levels, muscle pain, fatigue were increased after each exercise session. NHE didn’t change oxidant/antioxidant parameters; 5-week detraining resulted in an increase in total oxidant capacity (TOC) and oxidative stress index (OSI). Detraining of 10 weeks caused a reduction of these parameters. Acute exercise caused a reduction in PV at 1 to 10 weeks. Pre-exercise PV measured on the 10th week was lower than the basal value. Detraining caused the increment of PV. The results may guide the selection of the exercise type to increase performance and muscle strength. Knowing how much of the gains will be lost after a period of detraining can contribute to raising awareness of the continuity of the exercise. This work was supported by PAU Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit (Project number: 2018SABE034)

Keywords: anaerobic power, detraining, Nordic hamstring exercise, oxidative stress, plasma viscosity

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Authors: Duncan K. Espenshade

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Scholars have established expectations regarding how the political and economic interests of a country's people and elites can influence its migration policies. Most of the scholarship exploring the adoption of migration policies focuses on the developed world, focusing on the cultural, political, and economic influences that drive restrictive policies in developed countries. However, despite the scholarly focus on migration policies in developed countries, most internationally displaced people reside in developing countries. Furthermore, while the political and economic factors that influence migration policy in developed countries are likely at play in developing states, developing states also face unique hurdles to policy formation not present in developed states. Namely, this article explores how state capacity, or in this context, a state's de facto ability to restrict or absorb migration inflows, influences the adoption of migration policies in developing countries. Using Cox-Proportional hazard models and recently introduced data on asylum policies in developing countries, this research finds that having a greater ability to restrict migration flows is associated with a reduced likelihood of adopting liberal asylum policies. Future extensions of this project will explore the adoption of asylum policies as a two-stage process, in which the available decision set of political actors is first constrained by a state's restrictive and absorptive capacity in the first stage, with the political, economic, and cultural factors influencing the policy adopted in the second stage.

Keywords: state capacity, international relations, foreign policy, migration

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Authors: Tian-Fang Kang, Chao-Nan Ge, Rui Li

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An electrochemical biosensor for the determination of organophosphorus pesticides was developed based on electrochemical co-deposition of Au and Pd nanoparticles on glassy carbon electrode (GCE). Energy disperse spectroscopy (EDS) analysis was used for characterization of the surface structure. Scanning electron micrograph (SEM) demonstrates that the films are uniform and the nanoclusters are homogeneously distributed on the GCE surface. Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) was immobilized on the Au and Pd nanoparticle modified electrode (Au-Pd/GCE) by cross-linking with glutaraldehyde. The electrochemical behavior of thiocholine at the biosensor (AChE/Au-Pd/GCE) was studied. The biosensors exhibited substantial electrocatalytic effect on the oxidation of thiocholine. The peak current of linear scan voltammetry (LSV) of thiocholine at the biosensor is proportional to the concentration of acetylthiocholine chloride (ATCl) over the range of 2.5 × 10-6 to 2.5 × 10-4 M in 0.1 M phosphate buffer solution (pH 7.0). The percent inhibition of acetylcholinesterase was proportional to the logarithm of parathion concentration in the range of 4.0 × 10-9 to 1.0 × 10-6 M. The detection limit of parathion was 2.6 × 10-9 M. The proposed method exhibited high sensitivity and good reproducibility.

Keywords: acetylcholinesterase, Au-Pd nanoparticles, electrochemical biosensors, parathion

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Authors: Minjeoung Kim

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The majority of Korean female members of parliament(MPs) had been elected from the proportional representation till the 19th assemblies but in the 20th general election women MPs of the district representation is slightly more than women MPs of the proportional representation. The chance of women candidates to win is not as low as we assume. Therefore this study aims to reveal which factors influence the election of women candidates, other factors except the political party, because the effect of political party is already well known. Gangnam Eul is selected because female candidate was elected in spite of the low percentage of vote won by her political party. According to the survey, the female candidate was elected thanks to her policies and election pledges. Therefore, women candidates can be elected when they are nominated as candidates by their party in a safe constituency but also they can be elected with their good policies and election pledges in an unsafe constituency. And also the degree of the education, the age and the profession of voters influenced the support of female candidate.

Keywords: women candidates, 20th general election, winning in the district representation, policies and election pledges

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Authors: Aijuka Nicholas

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A research study was undertaken to characterize the aquifers and identify the potential groundwater recharge zones in the Kagandi district. Quantitative characterization of hydraulic conductivities of aquifers is of fundamental importance to the study of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in aquifers. A conditional approach is used to represent the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity. Briefly, it involves using qualitative and quantitative geologic borehole-log data to generate a three-dimensional (3D) hydraulic conductivity distribution, which is then adjusted through calibration of a 3D groundwater flow model using pumping-test data and historic hydraulic data. The approach consists of several steps. The study area was divided into five sub-watersheds on the basis of artificial drainage divides. A digital terrain model (DTM) was developed using Arc GIS to determine the general drainage pattern of Kagandi watershed. Hydrologic characterization involved the determination of the various hydraulic properties of the aquifers. Potential groundwater recharge zones were identified by integrating various thematic maps pertaining to the digital elevation model, land use, and drainage pattern in Arc GIS and Sufer golden software. The study demonstrates the potential of GIS in delineating groundwater recharge zones and that the developed methodology will be applicable to other watersheds in Uganda.

Keywords: aquifers, Arc GIS, groundwater recharge, recharge zones

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Authors: G. I. Onwuka, A. Danbaba, S. U. Gulumbe

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This study investigated of Infant Mortality Rate as observed at a general hospital in Kaduna-South, Kaduna State, North West Nigeria. The causes of infant Mortality were examined. The data used for this analysis were collected at the statistics unit of the Hospital. The analysis was carried out on the data using Multiple Linear regression Technique and this showed that there is linear relationship between the dependent variable (death) and the independent variables (malaria, measles, anaemia, and coronary heart disease). The resultant model also revealed that a unit increment in each of these diseases would result to a unit increment in death recorded, 98.7% of the total variation in mortality is explained by the given model. The highest number of mortality was recorded in July, 2005 and the lowest mortality recorded in October, 2009.Recommendations were however made based on the results of the study.

Keywords: infant mortality rate, multiple linear regression, diseases, serial correlation

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable in one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity, and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021, and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables on the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of the Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: exchange rate, random forest, time series, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Beatriz Martinez-Pastor, Maria Nogal, Alan O'Connor

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During the last years, the number of extreme weather events has increased. A variety of extreme weather events, including river floods, rain-induced landslides, droughts, winter storms, wildfire, and hurricanes, have threatened and damaged many different regions worldwide. These events have a devastating impact on critical infrastructure systems resulting in high social, economical and environmental costs. These events have a huge impact in transport systems. Since, transport networks are completely exposed to every kind of climatological perturbations, and its performance is closely related with these events. When a traffic network is affected by a climatological hazard, the quality of its service is threatened, and the level of the traffic conditions usually decreases. With the aim of understanding this process, the concept of resilience has become most popular in the area of transport. Transport resilience analyses the behavior of a traffic network when a perturbation takes place. This holistic concept studies the complete process, from the beginning of the perturbation until the total recovery of the system, when the perturbation has finished. Many concepts are included in the definition of resilience, such as vulnerability, redundancy, adaptability, and safety. Once the resilience of a transport network can be evaluated, in this case, the methodology used is a dynamic equilibrium-restricted assignment model that allows the quantification of the concept, the next step is its improvement. Through the improvement of this concept, it will be possible to create transport networks that are able to withstand and have a better performance under the presence of climatological hazards. Analyzing the impact of a perturbation in a traffic network, it is observed that the response of the different links, which are part of the network, can be completely different from one to another. Consequently and due to this effect, many questions arise, as what makes a link more critical before an extreme weather event? or how is it possible to identify these critical links? With this aim, and knowing that most of the times the owners or managers of the transport systems have limited resources, the identification of the critical links of a transport network before extreme weather events, becomes a crucial objective. For that reason, using the available resources in the areas that will generate a higher improvement of the resilience, will contribute to the global development of the network. Therefore, this paper wants to analyze what kind of characteristic makes a link a critical one when an extreme weather event damages a transport network and finally identify them.

Keywords: critical links, extreme weather events, hazard, resilience, transport network

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Takuya Sumi, Syoko Nukaya, Takashi Kaburagi, Hiroshi Tanaka, Kajiro Watanabe, Yosuke Kurihara

Abstract:

We propose an unconstrained measurement system for scratching motion based on mathematical model of unconstrained bed sensing method which could measure the bed vibrations due to the motion of the person on the bed. In this paper, we construct mathematical model of the unconstrained bed monitoring system, and we apply the unconstrained bed sensing method to the system for detecting scratching motion. The proposed sensors are placed under the three bed feet. When the person is lying on the bed, the output signals from the sensors are proportional to the magnitude of the vibration due to the scratching motion. Hence, we could detect the subject’s scratching motion from the output signals from ceramic sensors. We evaluated two scratching motions using the proposed system in the validity experiment as follows: First experiment is the subject’s scratching the right side cheek with his right hand, and; second experiment is the subject’s scratching the shin with another foot. As the results of the experiment, we recognized the scratching signals that enable the determination when the scratching occurred. Furthermore, the difference among the amplitudes of the output signals enabled us to estimate where the subject scratched.

Keywords: unconstrained bed sensing method, scratching, body movement, itchy, piezoceramics

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Authors: Cyril Hrncar, Jozef Bujko, Widya P. B. Putra

Abstract:

The growth curve of poultry is important to evaluate the farming management system. This study was aimed to estimate the growth curve of body weight in goose. The growth curve in this study was estimated with non-linear Gompertz model through CurveExpert 1.4. software. Three Slovak mixed-sex goose breeds of Landes (L), Pomeranian (P) and Steinbacher (S) were used in this study. Total of 28 geese (10 L, 8 P and 10 S) were used to estimate the growth curve. Research showed that the asymptotic weight (A) in those geese were reached of 5332.51 g (L), 6186.14 g (P) and 5048.27 g (S). Thus, the maturing rate (k) in each breed were similar (0.05 g/day). The weight of inflection was reached of 1960.48 g (L), 2274.32 g (P) and 1855.98 g (S). The time of inflection (ti) was reached of 25.6 days (L), 26.2 days (P) and 27.80 days (S). The maximum growth rate (MGR) was reached of 98.02 g/day (L), 113.72 g/day (P) and 92.80 g/day (S). Hence, the coefficient of determination (R2) in Gompertz model was 0.99 for each breed. It can be concluded that Pomeranian geese had highest of growth trait than the other breeds.

Keywords: body weight, growth curve, inflection, Slovak geese, Gompertz model

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Amir Abbas Kamanbedast, Abbas Saki

Abstract:

Stepped spillways are composed of several steps, which start from around the spillway crest and continue to the downstream heel. Recently, such spillways have been receiving increasing attention due to the significant effect of the associated stairs on the flow’s rate of energy dissipation. Energy dissipation in the stepped spillways across the overflow can be explained by the watercourse contact with the stairs (i.e., large, harsh surfaces). In this context, less energy must be dissipated at the end of the spillway, and, hence, a smaller (less expensive) energy-dissipating structure is required. In this study, a stepped spillway was simulated using the model Fluent 3, and a standard model was used to model the flow disturbance. For this purpose, the energy dissipation from the stepped spillway was investigated in terms of the different numbers of stairs involved. Using k-ε, the disturbances of the numerical method for velocity and of flow depth at the downstream overflow were obtained, and, then, the energy that was dissipated throughout the spillway was calculated. Our results showed that an increase in the number of stairs can considerably increase the amount of energy dissipation for the fixed, upstream energy. In addition, the results of the numerical analyses were provided as isobar and velocity curves so points that were sensitive to cavitation could be determined.

Keywords: stepped spillway, fluent software, turbulence model of k-ε, VOF model

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Khomkrit Mongkhuntod, Chatchawal Chaichana, Atipoang Nuntaphan

Abstract:

Feed Water Heater is the important equipment for thermal power plant. The heating temperature from feed heating process is an impact to power plant efficiency or heat rate. Normally, the degradation of feed water heater that operated for a long time is effect to decrease plant efficiency or increase plant heat rate. For Mae Moh power plant, each unit operated more than 20 years. The degradation of the main equipment is effect of planting efficiency or heat rate. From the efficiency and heat rate analysis, Mae Moh power plant operated in high heat rate more than the commissioning period. Some of the equipment were replaced for improving plant efficiency and plant heat rates such as HP turbine and LP turbine that the result is increased plant efficiency by 5% and decrease plant heat rate by 1%. For the target of power generation plan that Mae Moh power plant must be operated more than 10 years. These work is focus on thermal efficiency analysis of feed water heater to compare with the commissioning data for find the way to improve the feed water heater efficiency that may effect to increase plant efficiency or decrease plant heat rate by use heat balance model simulation and economic value add (EVA) method to study the investment for replacing the new feed water heater and analyze how this project can stay above the break-even point to make the project decision.

Keywords: feed water heater, power plant efficiency, plant heat rate, thermal efficiency analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 369