Search results for: Northern Ethiopia
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1378

Search results for: Northern Ethiopia

958 Significance of Transient Data and Its Applications in Turbine Generators

Authors: Chandra Gupt Porwal, Preeti C. Porwal

Abstract:

Transient data reveals much about the machine's condition that steady-state data cannot. New technologies make this information much more available for evaluating the mechanical integrity of a machine train. Recent surveys at various stations indicate that simplicity is preferred over completeness in machine audits throughout the power generation industry. This is most clearly shown by the number of rotating machinery predictive maintenance programs in which only steady-state vibration amplitude is trended while important transient vibration data is not even acquired. Efforts have been made to explain what transient data is, its importance, the types of plots used for its display, and its effective utilization for analysis. In order to demonstrate the value of measuring transient data and its practical application in rotating machinery for resolving complex and persistent issues with turbine generators, the author presents a few case studies that highlight the presence of rotor instabilities due to the shaft moving towards the bearing centre in a 100 MM LMZ unit located in the Northern Capital Region (NCR), heavy misalignment noticed—especially after 2993 rpm—caused by loose coupling bolts, which prevented the machine from being synchronized for more than four months in a 250 MW KWU unit in the Western Region (WR), and heavy preload noticed at Intermediate pressure turbine (IPT) bearing near HP- IP coupling, caused by high points on coupling faces at a 500 MW KWU unit in the Northern region (NR), experienced at Indian power plants.

Keywords: transient data, steady-state-data, intermediate -pressure-turbine, high-points

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957 Socio-Economic and Environmental Impact of Urban Sprawl: A Case Study Adigrat City, Tigray, Ethiopia

Authors: Fikre Belay Tekulu

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This thesis presents the socio-economic and environmental impacts of urban sprawl in the case of Adigrat city, Tigray Region, Ethiopia. The main objective of this research is to assess major causes, trends and socio-economic and environmental impacts of the urban sprawl of Adigrat city. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative methods as questionnaires, interviews and observation used for data collection. Simple random sampling has been used to select the participants. The land use and land cover change for agricultural land and forest and grassland resource analysis is done with the aid of GIS. Urban sprawl is mainly caused by the rapid population growth, increase in the living and property cost in the core of the city, land demand and land speculation and the growth of transport and an increase in income of people and demand of more living space. The study indicates 15726.24 hectares (515.49 per cent) of new land added to the city jurisdiction from its adjacent Gantafeshum Wereda between 1986 and 2018. The population of Adigrat city increased by 9.045 per cent per year, while the city expanded 16.01 per cent per annum and the LCR was 0.0233 hectares per person between 1986 and 2018.Built-up area increased by 35.27 per cent per annum, while agricultural land, forests and grassland cover decreased by 1.68 per cent and 1.26 per cent per annum respectively in the last thirty three years. This rapid growth of urban sprawl brought social-economic and environmental change in the city that has been observed by the city residents. Therefore, the city administration should need strong, integrated, effective and efficient work, with its neighbor rural area and also done timely preparation, implementation, supervision, and evaluation of the structural plan of the city to bring out sustainable development of the city.

Keywords: cause, , trends, urban sprawl, land use land cover, GIS

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956 Investigating Income Diversification Strategies into Off-Farm Activities Among Rural Households in Ethiopia

Authors: Kibret Berhanu Getinet

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Off-farm income diversification by farm rural households has gained the attention of researchers and policymakers due to the fact that agriculture failed to meet the needs of people in developing countries like Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate income diversification strategies into off-farm activities among rural households in Hawassa Zuria Woreda, Sidama National Regional State, Ethiopia. The study used primary and secondary data sources for the primary data collection questionnaire employed as a data collection instrument. A multistage sampling technique was used to collect data from a total of 197 sample households from four kebeles of the study area. Descriptive statistics, as well as econometrics methods of data analysis, were employed. The descriptive statistics result indicates that the majority of sample rural households (68.53 %) have engaged in off-farm income diversification activities while the remaining 31.47% of households did not participate in the diversification in the study area. The choice of participants among the strategies indicates that 6.60% of respondents participated in off-farm wage employment, 30.46% participated in off-farm self-employment, and about 31.47% of them participated in both off-farm wage employment. The study revealed that the share of off-farm income in total annual earnings of households was about 48.457%, and thus, the off-farm diversification significantly contributes to the rural household income. Moreover, binary and multinomial logistic regression models were employed to identify factors that affect the participation and the choices of the off-farm income diversification strategies, respectively. The binary logit model result indicated that agro-ecological zone, education status of the households, available technical skills of the household, household saving, total livestock owned by the households, access to electricity, road access and being married of household head were significant and positively affected the chance of diversification in off-farm activities while the on-farm income of households is negatively affected the chance of diversification. Similarly, the multinomial logistic regression model estimate revealed that agroecological zone, on-farm income, available technical skills, household savings, and access to electricity are positively related and significantly influenced the household’s choice of employment into off-farm wage employment. The off-farm self-employment diversification choice is significantly influenced by on-farm income, available technical skills, household savings, total livestock owned, and access to electricity. Moreover, the result showed that the factors that affect the choice of farm households to engage in both off-farm wage and self-employment are ecological zone, education status, on-farm income, available technical skills, household own saving, market access, total livestock owned, access to electricity and road access. Thus, due attention should be given to addressing the demographic, socio-economic, and institutional constraints to strengthen off-farm income diversification strategies to improve the income of rural households.

Keywords: off-farm, incoem, diversification, logit model

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955 Fecal Prevalence, Serotype Distribution and Antimicrobial Resistance of Salmonella in Dairy Cattle in Central Ethiopia

Authors: Tadesse Eguale, Ephrem Engdawork, Wondwossen Gebreyes, Dainel Asrat, Hile Alemayehu, John Gunn

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Salmonella is one of the major zoonotic pathogens affecting wide range of vertebrates and humans worldwide. Consumption of contaminated dairy products and contact with dairy cattle represent the common sources of non-typhoidal Salmonella infection in humans. Fecal samples were collected from 132 dairy herds in central Ethiopia and cultured for Salmonella to determine the prevalence, serotype distribution and antimicrobial susceptibility. Salmonella was recovered from the feces of at least one cattle in 10(7.6%) of the dairy farms. Out of 1193 fecal samples 30(2.5%) were positive for Salmonella. Large farm size, detection of diarrhea in one or more animals during sampling and keeping animals completely indoor compared to occasional grazing outside were associated with Salmonella positivity of the farms. Farm level prevalence of Salmonella was significantly higher in young animals below 6 months of age compared to other age groups(X2=10.24; p=0.04). Nine different serotypes were isolated. The four most frequently recovered serotypes were S. Typhimurium (23.3%),S. Saintpaul (20%) and S. Kentucky and S. Virchow (16.7%) each. All isolates were resistant or intermediately resistant to at least one of the 18 drugs tested. Twenty-six (86.7%), 20(66.7%), 18(60%), 16(53.3%) of the isolates were resistant to streptomycin, nitrofurantoin, sulfisoxazole and tetracycline respectively. Resistance to 2 drugs was detected in 93.3% of the isolates. Resistance to 3 or more drugs were detected in 21(70%) of the total isolates while multi-drug resistance (MDR) to 7 or more drugs were detected in 12 (40%) of the isolates. The rate of occurrence of MDR in Salmonella strains isolated from dairy farms in Addis Ababa was significantly higher than those isolated from farms outside of Addis Ababa((p= 0.009). The detection of high MDR in Salmonella isolates originating from dairy farms warrants the need for strict pathogen reduction strategy in dairy cattle and spread of these MDR strains to human population.

Keywords: salmonella, antimicrobial resistance, fecal prevalence

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954 Role of Energy Storage in Renewable Electricity Systems in The Gird of Ethiopia

Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

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Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy (ECRGE) strategy focuses mainly on generating and proper utilization of renewable energy (RE). Nonetheless, the current electricity generation of the country is dominated by hydropower. The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources from solar and wind energy were only 8 %. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36.1 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the EnergyPLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EnergyPLAN (EP) analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EP simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EP simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). The outcome of the model also showed that in the dry seasons of the year, there would be excess power production in the country. Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EP indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that if the excess power is utilized with a storage system, it can stabilize the grid system and be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming storage system to synchronize with potentials that can be generated from renewable energy.

Keywords: renewable energy, power, storage, wind, energy plan

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953 The Adequacy of Antenatal Care Services among Slum Residents in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Authors: Yibeltal T. Bayou, Yohana S. Mashalla, Gloria Thupayagale-Tshweneagae

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Background: Maternal mortality has been shown to be lower in urban areas than in rural areas. However, disparities for the fast-growing population of urban poor who struggle as much their rural counterparts to access quality healthcare are masked by the urban averages. The aim of this paper is to report on the findings of antenatal adequacy among slum residents in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods and Materials: A quantitative and cross-sectional community-based study design was employed. A stratified two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to determine the sample and data was collected using structured questionnaire administered to 837 women aged 15-49 years. Binary logistic regression models were employed to identify predictors of adequacy of antenatal care. Results: The majority of slum residents did not have adequate antenatal care services i.e., only 50.7%, 19.3% and 10.2% of the slum resident women initiated early antenatal care, received adequate antenatal care service contents and had overall adequate antenatal care services. Pregnancy intention, educational status and place of ANC visits were important determinant factors for adequacy of ANC in the study area. Women with secondary and above educational status were 2.9 times more likely to have overall adequate care compared to those with no formal education. Similarly, women whose last pregnancy was intended and clients of private healthcare facilities were 1.8 and 2.8 times more likely to have overall adequate antenatal care compared to those whose last pregnancy was unintended and clients of public healthcare facilities respectively. Conclusion: In order to improve ANC adequacy in the study area, the policymaking, planning, and implementation processes should focus on the poor adequacy of ANC among the disadvantaged groups in particular and the slum residents in general.

Keywords: Addis Ababa, adequacy of antenatal care, slum residents, maternal mortality

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952 Possibility of Creating Polygon Layers from Raster Layers Obtained by using Classic Image Processing Software: Case of Geological Map of Rwanda

Authors: Louis Nahimana

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Most maps are in a raster or pdf format and it is not easy to get vector layers of published maps. Faced to the production of geological simplified map of the northern Lake Tanganyika countries without geological information in vector format, I tried a method of obtaining vector layers from raster layers created from geological maps of Rwanda and DR Congo in pdf and jpg format. The procedure was as follows: The original raster maps were georeferenced using ArcGIS10.2. Under Adobe Photoshop, map areas with the same color corresponding to a lithostratigraphic unit were selected all over the map and saved in a specific raster layer. Using the same image processing software Adobe Photoshop, each RGB raster layer was converted in grayscale type and improved before importation in ArcGIS10. After georeferencing, each lithostratigraphic raster layer was transformed into a multitude of polygons with the tool "Raster to Polygon (Conversion)". Thereafter, tool "Aggregate Polygons (Cartography)" allowed obtaining a single polygon layer. Repeating the same steps for each color corresponding to a homogeneous rock unit, it was possible to reconstruct the simplified geological constitution of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo in vector format. By using the tool «Append (Management)», vector layers obtained were combined with those from Burundi to achieve vector layers of the geology of the « Northern Lake Tanganyika countries ».

Keywords: creating raster layer under image processing software, raster to polygon, aggregate polygons, adobe photoshop

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951 AquaCrop Model Simulation for Water Productivity of Teff (Eragrostic tef): A Case Study in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Authors: Yenesew Mengiste Yihun, Abraham Mehari Haile, Teklu Erkossa, Bart Schultz

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Teff (Eragrostic tef) is a staple food in Ethiopia. The local and international demand for the crop is ever increasing pushing the current price five times compared with that in 2006. To meet this escalating demand increasing production including using irrigation is imperative. Optimum application of irrigation water, especially in semi-arid areas is profoundly important. AquaCrop model application in irrigation water scheduling and simulation of water productivity helps both irrigation planners and agricultural water managers. This paper presents simulation and evaluation of AquaCrop model in optimizing the yield and biomass response to variation in timing and rate of irrigation water application. Canopy expansion, canopy senescence and harvest index are the key physiological processes sensitive to water stress. For full irrigation water application treatment there was a strong relationship between the measured and simulated canopy and biomass with r2 and d values of 0.87 and 0.96 for canopy and 0.97 and 0.74 for biomass, respectively. However, the model under estimated the simulated yield and biomass for higher water stress level. For treatment receiving full irrigation the harvest index value obtained were 29%. The harvest index value shows generally a decreasing trend under water stress condition. AquaCrop model calibration and validation using the dry season field experiments of 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 shows that AquaCrop adequately simulated the yield response to different irrigation water scenarios. We conclude that the AquaCrop model can be used in irrigation water scheduling and optimizing water productivity of Teff grown under water scarce semi-arid conditions.

Keywords: AquaCrop, climate smart agriculture, simulation, teff, water security, water stress regions

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950 ‘Only Amharic or Leave Quick!’: Linguistic Genocide in the Western Tigray Region of Ethiopia

Authors: Merih Welay Welesilassie

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Language is a potent instrument that does not only serve the purpose of communication but also plays a pivotal role in shaping our cultural practices and identities. The right to choose one's language is a fundamental human right that helps to safeguard the integrity of both personal and communal identities. Language holds immense significance in Ethiopia, a nation with a diverse linguistic landscape that extends beyond mere communication to delineate administrative boundaries. Consequently, depriving Ethiopians of their linguistic rights represents a multifaceted punishment, more complex than food embargoes. In the aftermath of the civil war that shook Ethiopia in November 2020, displacing millions and resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives, concerns have been raised about the preservation of the indigenous Tigrayan language and culture. This is particularly true following the annexation of western Tigray into the Amhara region and the implementation of an Amharic-only language and culture education policy. This scholarly inquiry explores the intricacies surrounding the Amhara regional state's prohibition of Tigrayans' indigenous language and culture and the subsequent adoption of a monolingual and monocultural Amhara language and culture in western Tigray. The study adopts the linguistic genocide conceptual framework as an analytical tool to gain a deeper insight into the factors that contributed to and facilitated this significant linguistic and cultural shift. The research was conducted by interviewing ten teachers selected through a snowball sampling. Additionally, document analysis was performed to support the findings. The findings revealed that the push for linguistic and cultural assimilation was driven by various political and economic factors and the desire to promote a single language and culture policy. This process, often referred to as ‘Amharanization,’ aimed to homogenize the culture and language of the society. The Amhara authorities have enacted several measures in pursuit of their objectives, including the outlawing of the Tigrigna language, punishment for speaking Tigrigna, imposition of the Amhara language and culture, mandatory relocation, and even committing heinous acts that have inflicted immense physical and emotional suffering upon members of the Tigrayan community. Upon conducting a comprehensive analysis of the contextual factors, actions, intentions, and consequences, it has been posited that there may be instances of linguistic genocide taking place in the Western Tigray region. The present study sheds light on the severe consequences that could arise because of implementing monolingual and monocultural policies in multilingual areas. Through thoroughly scrutinizing the implications of such policies, this study provides insightful recommendations and directions for future research in this critical area.

Keywords: linguistic genocide, linguistic human right, mother tongue, Western Tigray

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949 An Investigation into the Impact of Brexit on Consumer Perception of Trust in the Food Industry

Authors: Babatope David Omoniyi, Fiona Lalor, Sinead Furey

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This ongoing project investigates the impact of Brexit on consumer perceptions of trust in the food industry. Brexit has significantly impacted the food industry, triggering a paradigm shift in the movement of food/agricultural produce, regulations, and cross-border collaborations between Great Britain, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland. In a world where the dynamics have shifted because of regulatory changes that impact trade and the free movement of foods and agricultural produce between these three countries, monitoring and controlling every stage of the food supply chain have become challenging, increasing the potential for food fraud and food safety incidents. As consumers play a pivotal role in shaping the market, understanding any shifts in trust post-Brexit enables them to navigate the market with confidence and awareness. This study aims to explore the complexities of consumer perceptions, focusing on trust as a cornerstone of consumer confidence in the post-Brexit food landscape. The objectives include comparing trust in official controls pre- and post-Brexit, determining consumer awareness of food fraud, and devising recommendations that reflect the evidence from this primary research regarding consumer trust in food authenticity post-Brexit. The research design follows an exploratory sequential mixed methods approach, incorporating qualitative methods such as focus groups and structured interviews, along with quantitative research through a large-scale survey. Participants from UCD and Ulster University campuses, comprising academic and non-academic staff, students, and researchers, will provide insights into the impact of Brexit on consumer trust. Preliminary findings from focus groups and interviews highlight changes in labelling, reduced quantity and quality of foods in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, fewer food choices, and increased food prices since Brexit. The study aims to further investigate and quantify these impacts through a comprehensive large-scale survey involving participants from Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The results will inform official controls and consumer-facing messaging contributing valuable insights to navigate the evolving post-Brexit food landscape.

Keywords: Brexit, consumer trust, food fraud, food authenticity, food safety, food industry

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948 Groundwater Potential in the Central Part of Al Jabal Al Akhdar Area, Ne Libya

Authors: Maged El Osta, Milad Masoud

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Al Jabal Al Akhdar in the north-eastern part of Libya represents a region with promising ecological underpinning for grazing and other agricultural developments. The groundwater potential of both Upper Cretaceous and Eocene aquifers was studied based the available literature and a complete database for about 112 water wells drilled in the period 2003-2009. In this research, the hydrogeological methods will be integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) that played a main role in highlighting the spatial characteristics of the groundwater system. The results indicate that the depth to water for the Upper Cretaceous aquifer ranges from 150 to 458 m, and the piezometric surface decreases from over 500 m (m.s.l) in the northern parts to -20 m (m.s.l) in southeastern part. Salinity ranges between 303 and 1329 mg/l indicating that groundwater belongs to the slightly fresh water class. In the Eocene aquifer, the depth to groundwater ranges from 120 to 290.5 m and the potentiometric level decreases gradually southwards from 220 to -51 m (m.s.l) and characterized by steep slope in the southeastern part of the study area, where the aquifer characterized by relatively high productivity (specific capacity ranges between 10.08 and 332.3 m2/day). The groundwater salinity within this aquifer ranges between 198 and 2800 mg/l (fresh to brackish water class). The annual average rainfall (from 280 to 500 mm) plays a significant role in the recharge of the two aquifers. The priority of groundwater quality and potentiality increases towards the central and northern portions of the concerned area.

Keywords: Eocene and Upper Cretaceous aquifers, rainfall, potentiality, Geographic Information System (GIS)

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947 Standardization of the Roots of Gnidia stenophylla Gilg: A Potential Medicinal Plant of South Eastern Ethiopia Traditionally Used as an Antimalarial

Authors: Mebruka Mohammed, Daniel Bisrat, Asfaw Debella, Tarekegn Birhanu

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Lack of quality control standards for medicinal plants and their preparations is considered major barrier to their integration in to effective primary health care in Ethiopia. Poor quality herbal preparations led to countless adverse reactions extending to death. Denial of penetration for the Ethiopian medicinal plants in to the world’s booming herbal market is also another significant loss resulting from absence of herbal quality control system. Thus, in the present study, Gnidia stenophylla Gilg (popular antimalarial plant of south eastern Ethiopia), is standardized and a full monograph is produced that can serve as a guideline in quality control of the crude drug. Morphologically, the roots are found to be cylindrical and tapering towards the end. It has a hard, corky and friable touch with saddle brown color externally and it is relatively smooth and pale brown internally. It has got characteristic pungent odor and very bitter taste. Microscopically it has showed lignified xylem vessels, wider medullary rays with some calcium oxalate crystals, reddish brown secondary metabolite contents and slender shaped long fibres. Physicochemical standards quantified and resulted: foreign matter (5.25%), moisture content (6.69%), total ash (40.80%), acid insoluble ash (8.00%), water soluble ash (2.30%), alcohol soluble extractive (15.27%), water soluble extractive (10.98%), foaming index (100.01 ml/g), swelling index (7.60 ml/g). Phytochemically: Phenols, flavonoids, steroids, tannins and saponins were detected in the root extract; TLC and HPLC fingerprints were produced and an analytical marker was also tentatively characterized as 3-(3,4-dihydro-3,5-dihydroxy-2-(4-hydroxy-5-methylhex-1-en-2-yl)-7-methoxy-4-oxo-2H-chromen-8-yl)-5-hydroxy-2-(4-hydroxyphenyl)-7-methoxy-4H-chromen-4-one. Residue wise pesticides (i.e. DDT, DDE, g-BHC) and radiochemical levels fall below the WHO limit while Heavy metals (i.e. Co, Ni, Cr, Pb, and Cu), total aerobic count and fungal load lie way above the WHO limit. In conclusion, the result can be taken as signal that employing non standardized medicinal plants could cause many health risks of the Ethiopian people and Africans’ at large (as 80% of inhabitants in the continent depends on it for primary health care). Therefore, following a more universal approach to herbal quality by adopting the WHO guidelines and developing monographs using the various quality parameters is inevitable to minimize quality breach and promote effective herbal drug usage.

Keywords: Gnidia stenophylla Gilg, standardization/monograph, pharmacognostic, residue/impurity, quality

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946 Trends of Cancer Patients Who Underwent Curative/radical Radiotherapy at Radiotherapy Center, Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital

Authors: Emeshaw Damtew Zebene, Edom Seife, Hagos Tesfay, Gurja Belay

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Background: cancer incidence and mortality has grown rapidly throughout the world. Aging of the population, urbanization, physical inactivity, economic growth followed by smoking and drinking contributed a lot for the increased incidence of cancer all over the globe. Objective: the aim of this study was to assess a one-year trend of cancer patients who underwent curative/radical radiotherapy at radiotherapy center, Tikur Anbessa specialized hospital, Ethiopia. Methodology: We performed a prospective descriptive study of cancer patients treated with LINAC at Tikur Anbessa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from April 2021- March 2022. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. Descriptive statistics and chi-square results were generated using SPSS version 24. The level of significance was obtained at 0.05. Results: Sixty-four (64) curative/radical patients-44 females and 20 males were analyzed. Majority, 27(42.2%), of the patients age range from 45 to 64, and 45(70%) of them were urban residents where a group of higher gynecologic cancer was observed.78% of the patients were with locally advanced cancer, and 54(84.4%) of them had no awareness about cancer. Generally, head & neck cancer were found the most prevalent cancer 20(31.3%), and the leading cause of cancer among women was cervical cancer 17(38.6%), where about half 7(15.9%) of them were HIV positive. Conclusion: Our finding revealed that most of curative/radical patients presented at a locally advanced stage of the disease. Hence, maintaining the already available teletherapy machines and installing additional radiotherapy centers may help in treating the patients at the early stage of the disease. Since almost all of our study participants did not have information about cancer, awareness raising mechanisms should be done. Additionally, understanding differences in cancer incidence between urban and rural is important. Key words: Cancer, Curative/radical, Radiotherapy, Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital

Keywords: cancer, curative/radical, radiotherapy, tkur anbessa specialized hospital

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945 Development and Control of Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation: The Case of Colzate-Vertova Landslide, Bergamo, Northern Italy

Authors: Paola Comella, Vincenzo Francani, Paola Gattinoni

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This paper presents the Colzate-Vertova landslide, a Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DSGSD) located in the Seriana Valley, Northern Italy. The paper aims at describing the development as well as evaluating the factors that influence the evolution of the landslide. After defining the conceptual model of the landslide, numerical simulations were developed using a finite element numerical model, first with a two-dimensional domain, and later with a three-dimensional one. The results of the 2-D model showed a displacement field typical of a sackung, as a consequence of the erosion along the Seriana Valley. The analysis also showed that the groundwater flow could locally affect the slope stability, bringing about a reduction in the safety factor, but without reaching failure conditions. The sensitivity analysis carried out on the strength parameters pointed out that slope failures could be reached only for relevant reduction of the geotechnical characteristics. Such a result does not fit the real conditions observed on site, where a number of small failures often develop all along the hillslope. The 3-D model gave a more comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the DSGSD, also considering the border effects. The results showed that the convex profile of the slope favors the development of displacements along the lateral valley, with a relevant reduction in the safety factor, justifying the existing landslides.

Keywords: deep seated gravitational slope deformation, Italy, landslide, numerical modeling

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944 Addressing Microbial Contamination in East Hararghe, Oromia, Ethiopia: Improving Water Sanitation Infrastructure and Promoting Safe Water Practices for Enhanced Food Safety

Authors: Tuji Jemal Ahmed, Hussen Beker Yusuf

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Food safety is a major concern worldwide, with microbial contamination being one of the leading causes of foodborne illnesses. In Ethiopia, drinking water and untreated groundwater are a primary source of microbial contamination, leading to significant health risks. East Hararghe, Oromia, is one of the regions in Ethiopia that has been affected by this problem. This paper provides an overview of the impact of untreated groundwater on human health in Haramaya Rural District, East Hararghe and highlights the urgent need for sustained efforts to address the water sanitation supply problem. The use of untreated groundwater for drinking and household purposes in Haramaya Rural District, East Hararghe is prevalent, leading to high rates of waterborne illnesses such as diarrhea, typhoid fever, and cholera. The impact of these illnesses on human health is significant, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality, especially among vulnerable populations such as children and the elderly. In addition to the direct health impacts, waterborne illnesses also have indirect impacts on human health, such as reduced productivity and increased healthcare costs. Groundwater sources are susceptible to microbial contamination due to the infiltration of surface water, human and animal waste, and agricultural runoff. In Haramaya Rural District, East Hararghe, poor water management practices, inadequate sanitation facilities, and limited access to clean water sources contribute to the prevalence of untreated groundwater as a primary source of drinking water. These underlying causes of microbial contamination highlight the need for improved water sanitation infrastructure, including better access to safe drinking water sources and the implementation of effective treatment methods. The paper emphasizes the need for regular water quality monitoring, especially for untreated groundwater sources, to ensure safe drinking water for the population. The implementation of effective preventive measures, such as the use of effective disinfectants, proper waste disposal methods, and regular water quality monitoring, is crucial to reducing the risk of contamination and improving public health outcomes in the region. Community education and awareness-raising campaigns can also play a critical role in promoting safe water practices and reducing the risk of contamination. These campaigns can include educating the population on the importance of boiling water before drinking, the use of water filters, and proper sanitation practices. In conclusion, the use of untreated groundwater as a primary source of drinking water in East Hararghe, Oromia, Ethiopia, has significant impacts on human health, leading to widespread waterborne illnesses and posing a significant threat to public health. Sustained efforts are urgently needed to address the root causes of contamination, such as poor sanitation and hygiene practices, improper waste management, and the water sanitation supply problem, including the implementation of effective preventive measures and community-based education programs, ultimately improving public health outcomes in the region. A comprehensive approach that involves community-based water management systems, point-of-use water treatment methods, and awareness-raising campaigns can contribute to reducing the incidence of microbial contamination in the region.

Keywords: food safety, health risks, microbial contamination, untreated groundwater

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943 Effects of Poultry Manure Rates on Some Growth and Yield Attributes of Cucumber in Owerri, South Eastern Nigeria

Authors: Chinwe Pearl Poly-Mbah, Evelyn Obioma, Juliet Amajuoyi

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The investigation here reported examined growth and yield responses of Cucumber to manure rates in Owerri, Southeastern Nigeria. Fruit vegetables are widely cultivated and produced in Northern Nigeria but greatly consumed in Southern Nigeria where cucumbers command high demand and price but are minimally cultivated. Unfortunately, farmers in northern Nigeria incur lots of losses because cucumber is a perishable vegetable and is transported all the way from the northern Nigeria where cucumbers are produced to Southern Nigeria where cucumbers are consumed, hence the high cost of cucumber fruits in Southern Nigeria. There is a need, therefore, to evolve packages that will enhance cucumber production in Southern Nigeria. The main objective of this study was to examine the effects of poultry manure rates on the growth and yield of cucumber in Owerri, South Eastern Nigeria. Specifically, this study was designed to assess the effect of poultry manure rates on number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length/plant, leaf area per plant and the number of leaves produced per plant. The design used for the experiment was Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three blocks (replications). Treatment consisted of four rates of well-decomposed poultry manure at the rate of 0 tons/ha, 2 tons/ha, 4 tons/ha and 6 tons/ha. Data were collected on number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length per plant at two weeks interval, leaf number per plant at two weeks interval, leaf area per plant at two weeks interval, number of fruits produced per plant, and fresh weight of fruits per plant at harvest. Results from the analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that there were highly significant effects (P=0.05) of poultry manure on growth and yield parameters studied which include number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length per plant, leaf number per plant, leaf area per plant, fruit number and fruit weight per plant such that increase in poultry manure rates lead to increase in growth and yield parameters studied. Therefore, the null hypothesis (Ho) was rejected, while the alternative hypothesis was accepted. Farmers should be made to know that growing cucumber with poultry manure in southeastern Nigeria agro ecology is a successful enterprise

Keywords: cucumber, effects, growth and yield, manure

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942 Early Indications of the Success of Rehabilitating Degraded Lands through the Green Legacy Project Implemented in Ethiopia

Authors: Tamirat Solomon, Aberash Yohannis, Efrem Gulfo

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The plantation of trees, which harmonizes the agroecology of the environment, has been implemented in Ethiopia with great concern for a noticeably degraded environment. This study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of green legacy, species selection and, the rate of survival, and the management status in the study areas. A systematic sampling method was employed to collect the required data from 144 quadrants measuring a 15m radius with an interval of 40m apart. Additionally, 244 sample households were selected for the socioeconomic study in addition to secondary data collected from office recordings. The data collected was analyzed using multivariate analysis, considering exposure and outcome variables. The findings of this study indicated that four exotic tree species, namely; A. salgina, C. fistula, A. indica, and G. robusta, were commonly selected tree species for degraded land restoration in the study areas. Among the seedlings planted at the four study sites, a total of 79.9% survived, and A. salgina was the dominant and best performed species, A. indica was the least survived species in the entire study area. The age of the seedling before planting significantly (p = 0.05) affected the survival potential of most seedlings of species, and the majority (82%) of local communities expressed their positive attitudes and willingness to manage the restoration works in the study areas. It was recommended to consider the inclusion of native species in the restoration effort and evaluate the co-existence of native flora with exotic and its competition for nutrients, water, and light in addition to the invading potentials in the ecosystem. In general, before embarking on degraded land restoration, species selection, adequate preparation of seedlings, and species diversity composition that exactly fit the socioeconomic and ecological demands of the areas must get the attention for the success of the restoration.

Keywords: plantation forest, degraded land, forest restoration, plantation survival, species selection

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941 Impact of Extension Services Pastoralists’ Vulnerability to Climate Change in Northern Guinea Savannah of Nigeria

Authors: Sidiqat A. Aderinoye-Abdulwahab, Lateef L. Adefalu, Jubril O. Animashaun

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Pastoralists in Nigeria are situated in dry regions - where water and pasture for livestock are particularly scarce, as well as areas with poor availability of social amenities and infrastructure. This study therefore explored how extension service could be used to reduce the exposure of nomads to effects of seasonality, climate change, and the poor environmental conditions. The study was carried out in Northern guinea Savannah region of Nigeria because pastoralists have settled there in large numbers due to desertification and low rainfall in the arid regions. A multi-stage sampling procedure was used to arrive at the selection of two states (Kwara and Nassarawa) in the region. A total of 63 respondents were randomly chosen using simple random sampling. Focus group discussions and questionnaire were used to gather information while the data was analysed using content analysis. The facilities required by the sampled households are milking machine, cheese making machine, and preservatives to increase the shelf life of cheese. Whilst, the extension service required are demonstration on cheese making, training and seminars on animal husbandry. Additionally, livestock of pastoralists often encroach on farmers’ plots which usually result in pastoralist-farmer conflicts. The study thus recommends diversification of economic activity from livestock to non-livestock related activities as well as creation of grazing routes to reduce pastoralist/farmer conflict.

Keywords: arid region, coping strategies, livestock, livelihood

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940 Eco-Friendly Approach in the Management of Stored Sorghum Insect Pests in Small-Scale Farmers’ Storage Structures of Northern Nigeria

Authors: Mohammed Suleiman, Ibrahim Sani, Samaila Abubakar, Kabir Abdullahi Bindawa

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Farmers’ storage structures in Pauwa village of Katsina State, Northern Nigeria, were simulated and incorporated with the application of leaf powders of Euphorbia balsamifera Aiton, Lawsonia inermis L., Mitracarpus hirtus (L.) DC. and Senna obtusifolia L. to search for more eco-friendly methods of managing insect pests of stored sorghum. The four most commonly grown sorghum varieties in the study area, namely “Farar Kaura” (FK), “Jar Kaura” (JK), “Yar Gidan Daudu” (YGD), and ICSV400 in threshed forms were used for the study. The four varieties (2.50 kg each) were packed in small polypropylene bags, mixed with the leaf powders at the concentration of 5% (w/w) of the plants, and kept in small stores of the aforementioned village for 12 weeks. Insect pests recovered after 12 weeks were Sitophilus zeamais, Rhyzopertha dominica, Tribolium castaneum, Cryptolestes ferrugineus, and Oryzaephilus surinamensis. There were significantly fewer insect pests in treated sorghum than in untreated types (p < 0.05). More weight losses were recorded in untreated grains than in those treated with the botanical powders. In terms of varieties, grain weight losses were in the order FK > JK > YGD > ICSV400. The botanicals also showed significant (p < 0.05) protectant ability against the weevils with their performance as E. balsamifera > L. inermis > M. hirtus > S. obtusifolia.

Keywords: botanical powders, infestations, insect pests, management, sorghum varieties, storage structures, weight losses

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939 Utilization, Barriers and Determinants of Emergency Medical Services in Mekelle City, Tigray, Ethiopia: A Community-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: Goitom Molalign Takele, Tsegalem Hailemariam Ballo, Kiros Belay Gebrekidan, Birhan Gebresilassie Gebregiorgis

Abstract:

Background: Emergency medical services (EMS) are services that provide out-of-hospital emergency medical care to injured or ill peoples, and transporting to definitive care. EMS is an integral part of the emergency medical system and has been associated with decreased morbidity and mortality related to emergency cases. The aim of this study was to assess the utilization, barriers, and determinants of EMS in Mekelle, Ethiopia. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in selected sub-cities of Mekelle. A multistage sampling method was employed to recruit study participants, and data were collected by trained data collectors using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to examine the statistical association of the determinants of EMS utilization. Results: Half (50.5%) of the respondents had experienced or witnessed an emergency incident in the past year. The common means of transportations used were Bajaj’s (39.2%) and ambulances (22.7%). Majority (88.1%) of the respondents did not knew the EMS access phone number of an ambulance. As their preferred mode of transportation in case of emergency conditions, 42.2% of the participants reported an ambulance, followed by Bajaj 33.7%. Where participants who had gynecologic emergencies were 9.4 times (AOR=9.4, 95% CI: 1.04, 85, p=0.046), and those who knew any ambulance numbers were 3.6 times (AOR=3.6, 95% CI: 1.22, 10.8, p=0.02) more likely to use ambulance services in case of emergencies. Conclusion: The ambulance utilization level in Mekelle city was low and victims of emergency conditions were being transported mainly using public transports such as Bajaj’s and taxis. Even though the perception of the public towards EMS services is favorable, lack of awareness of EMS access, and lack of integrated EMS system in the city are the barriers that may have contributed to the low utilization. Actions to improve EMS access and integrating the system are warranted to promote the services utilization.

Keywords: emergency medical services, utilization, Mekelle, barriers

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938 Determinants of Customer Satisfaction: The case of Abyssinia Bank Customers in Addis Ababa Ethiopia

Authors: Yosef Ferede Bogale

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the degree of customer satisfaction and the variables influencing it in the instance of the Bank of Abyssinia branches in the districts of Arada and Bole in Addis Ababa. The study was carried out utilizing a mixed research approach and a descriptive and explanatory research design in Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia. Both primary and secondary data were employed in this investigation. The study's target population consisted of 1000 of the bank's most prestigious clients. With a 93% response rate, 265 respondents from both genders in the active age group had higher levels of education and work experience and were in the active age group. Customers of the case bank under consideration comprised the study's target audience. The respondents, who belonged to both gender groups, were in the active age bracket with superior levels of education and work experience. As a result, this investigation discovered that the degree of client satisfaction was assigned a medium rating. Additionally given a middling rating were the company's image practices, employee competency, technology, and service quality. Further, the results also demonstrate that corporate image, employees’ competency, technology, and service quality all positively and significantly affect customer happiness. This study found that, to varying degrees, company image, technology, competence, and high-quality financial services will all improve consumer happiness. According to this report, banks should monitor customer satisfaction and service quality at least twice a year. This is because there is a growing movement among bank service providers for accountability, and measuring these factors is crucial. This study also recommends that banks make every effort to satisfy consumers' expectations to the highest level.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, corporate image, quality service risk, banks

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937 Determinants of Customer Satisfaction: The Case of Abyssinia Bank Customers in Addis Ababa Ethiopia

Authors: Yosef Ferede Bogale

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the degree of customer satisfaction and the variables influencing it in the instance of the Bank of Abyssinia branches in the districts of Arada and Bole in Addis Ababa. The study was carried out utilizing a mixed research approach and a descriptive and explanatory research design in Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia. Both primary and secondary data were employed in this investigation. The study's target population consisted of 1000 of the bank's most prestigious clients. With a 93% response rate, 265 respondents from both genders in the active age group had higher levels of education and work experience and were in the active age group. Customers of the case bank under consideration comprised the study's target audience. The respondents, who belonged to both gender groups, were in the active age bracket with superior levels of education and work experience. As a result, this investigation discovered that the degree of client satisfaction was assigned a medium rating. Additionally given a middling rating were the company's image practices, employee competency, technology, and service quality. Further, the results also demonstrate that corporate image, employees’ competency, technology, and service quality all positively and significantly affect customer happiness. This study found that, to varying degrees, company image, technology, competence, and high-quality financial services will all improve consumer happiness. According to this report, banks should monitor customer satisfaction and service quality at least twice a year. This is because there is a growing movement among bank service providers for accountability, and measuring these factors is crucial. This study also recommends that banks make every effort to satisfy consumers' expectations to the highest level.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, corporate image, quality services risk, bank

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936 Temporal and Spatial Distribution Prediction of Patinopecten yessoensis Larvae in Northern China Yellow Sea

Authors: RuiJin Zhang, HengJiang Cai, JinSong Gui

Abstract:

It takes Patinopecten yessoensis larvae more than 20 days from spawning to settlement. Due to the natural environmental factors such as current, Patinopecten yessoensis larvae are transported to a distance more than hundreds of kilometers, leading to a high instability of their spatial and temporal distribution and great difficulties in the natural spat collection. Therefore predicting the distribution is of great significance to improve the operating efficiency of the collecting. Hydrodynamic model of Northern China Yellow Sea was established and the motions equations of physical oceanography and verified by the tidal harmonic constants and the measured data velocities of Dalian Bay. According to the passivity drift characteristics of the larvae, combined with the hydrodynamic model and the particle tracking model, the spatial and temporal distribution prediction model was established and the spatial and temporal distribution of the larvae under the influence of flow and wind were simulated. It can be concluded from the model results: ocean currents have greatest impacts on the passive drift path and diffusion of Patinopecten yessoensis larvae; the impact of wind is also important, which changed the direction and speed of the drift. Patinopecten yessoensis larvae were generated in the sea along Zhangzi Island and Guanglu-Dachangshan Island, but after two months, with the impact of wind and currents, the larvae appeared in the west of Dalian and the southern of Lvshun, and even in Bohai Bay. The model results are consistent with the relevant literature on qualitative analysis, and this conclusion explains where the larvae come from in the perspective of numerical simulation.

Keywords: numerical simulation, Patinopecten yessoensis larvae, predicting model, spatial and temporal distribution

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935 The Sr-Nd Isotope Data of the Platreef Rocks from the Northern Limb of the Bushveld Igneous Complex: Evidence of Contrasting Magma Composition and Origin

Authors: Tshipeng Mwenze, Charles Okujeni, Abdi Siad, Russel Bailie, Dirk Frei, Marcelene Voigt, Petrus Le Roux

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The Platreef is a platinum group element (PGE) deposit in the northern limb of the Bushveld Igneous Complex (BIC) which was emplaced as a series of mafic and ultramafic sills between the Main Zone (MZ) and the country rocks. The PGE mineralisation in the Platreef is hosted in different rock types, and its distribution and style vary with depth and along strike. This study contributes towards understanding the processes involved in the genesis of the Platreef. Twenty-four Platreef (2 harzburgites, 4 olivine pyroxenites, 17 feldspathic pyroxenites and 1 gabbronorite) and few MZ (1 gabbronorite and 1 leucogabbronorite) quarter core samples were collected from four drill cores (e.g., TN754, TN200, SS339, and OY482) and analysed for whole-rock Sr-Nd isotope data. The results show positive ɛNd values (+3.53 to +7.51) for harzburgites suggesting their parental magmas derived from the depleted Mantle. The remaining Platreef rocks have negative ɛNd values (-2.91 to -22.88) and show significant variations in Sr-Nd isotopic compositions. The first group of Platreef samples has relatively high isotopic compositions (ɛNd= -2.91 to -5.68; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sri= 0.709177 - 0.711998). The second group of Platreef samples has Sr ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sri= 0.709816-0.712106) overlapping with samples of the first group but slightly lower ɛNd values (-7.44 to -8.39). Lastly, the third group of Platreef samples has low ɛNd values (-10.82 to -14.32) and low Sr ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sri= 0.707545-0.710042) than those from samples of the two Platreef groups mentioned above. There is, however, a Platreef sample with ɛNd value (-5.26) in range with the Platreef samples of the first group, but its Sr ratio (0.707281) is the lowest even when compared to samples of the third Platreef group. There are also five other Platreef samples which have either anomalous ɛNd or Sr ratios which make it difficult to assess their isotopic compositions relative to other samples. These isotopic variations for the Platreef samples indicate both multiple sources and multiple magma chambers where varying crustal contamination styles have operated during the evolution of these magmas prior their emplacements into the Platreef setting as sills. Furthermore, the MZ rocks have different Sr-Nd isotopic compositions (For OY482 gabbronorite [ɛNd= +0.65; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sri= 0.711746]; for TN754 leucogabbronorite [ɛNd= -7.44; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sri= 0.709322]) which do not only indicate different MZ magma chambers, but also different magmas from those of the Platreef. Although the Platreef is still considered a single stratigraphic unit in the northern limb of the BIC, its genesis involved multiple magmatic processes which evolved independently from each other.

Keywords: crustal contamination styles, magma chambers, magma sources, multiple sills emplacement

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934 Data Mining Model for Predicting the Status of HIV Patients during Drug Regimen Change

Authors: Ermias A. Tegegn, Million Meshesha

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Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is a major cause of death for most African countries. Ethiopia is one of the seriously affected countries in sub Saharan Africa. Previously in Ethiopia, having HIV/AIDS was almost equivalent to a death sentence. With the introduction of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART), HIV/AIDS has become chronic, but manageable disease. The study focused on a data mining technique to predict future living status of HIV/AIDS patients at the time of drug regimen change when the patients become toxic to the currently taking ART drug combination. The data is taken from University of Gondar Hospital ART program database. Hybrid methodology is followed to explore the application of data mining on ART program dataset. Data cleaning, handling missing values and data transformation were used for preprocessing the data. WEKA 3.7.9 data mining tools, classification algorithms, and expertise are utilized as means to address the research problem. By using four different classification algorithms, (i.e., J48 Classifier, PART rule induction, Naïve Bayes and Neural network) and by adjusting their parameters thirty-two models were built on the pre-processed University of Gondar ART program dataset. The performances of the models were evaluated using the standard metrics of accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measure. The most effective model to predict the status of HIV patients with drug regimen substitution is pruned J48 decision tree with a classification accuracy of 98.01%. This study extracts interesting attributes such as Ever taking Cotrim, Ever taking TbRx, CD4 count, Age, Weight, and Gender so as to predict the status of drug regimen substitution. The outcome of this study can be used as an assistant tool for the clinician to help them make more appropriate drug regimen substitution. Future research directions are forwarded to come up with an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: HIV drug regimen, data mining, hybrid methodology, predictive model

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933 Identifying Controlling Factors for the Evolution of Shallow Groundwater Chemistry of Ellala Catchment, Northern Ethiopia

Authors: Grmay Kassa Brhane, Hailemariam Siyum Mekonen

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This study was designed to identify the hydrogeochemical and anthropogenic processes controlling the evaluation of groundwater chemistry in the Ellala catchment which covers about 296.5 km2 areal extent. The chemical analysis revealed that the major ions in the groundwater are Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, and K+ (cations) and HCO3-, PO43-, Cl-, NO3-, and SO42-(anions). Most of the groundwater samples (68.42%) revealed that the groundwater in the catchment is non-alkaline. In addition to the contribution of aquifer material, the solid materials and liquid wastes discharged from different sources can be the main sources of pH and EC in the groundwater. It is observed that the EC of the groundwater is fairly correlated with the DTS. This indicates that high mineralized water is more conductor than water with low concentration. The degree of salinity of the groundwater increases along the groundwater flow path from East to West; then, areas surrounding Mekelle City are highly saline due to the liquid and solid wastes discharged from the city and the industries. The groundwater facies in the catchment are predominated with calcium, magnesium, and bicarbonate which are labeled as Ca-Mg-HCO3 and Mg-Ca-HCO3. The main geochemical process controlling the evolution of the groundwater chemistry in the catchment is rock-water interaction, particularly carbonate dissolution. Due to the clay layer in the aquifer, the reverse is ion exchange. Non-significant silicate weathering and halite dissolution also contribute to the evolution of groundwater chemistry in the catchment. The groundwater in the catchment is dominated by the meteoritic origin although it needs further groundwater chemistry study with isotope dating analysis. The groundwater is under-saturated with calcite, dolomite, and aragonite minerals; hence, the more these minerals encounter the groundwater, the more the minerals dissolve. The main source of calcium and magnesium in groundwater is the dissolution of carbonate minerals (calcite and dolomite) since carbonate rocks are the dominant aquifer materials in the catchment. In addition to this, the weathering of dolerite rock is a possible source of magnesium ions. The relatively higher concentration of sodium over chloride indicates that the source of sodium-ion is reverse ion exchange and/or weathering of sodium-bearing materials, such as shale and dolerite rather than halite dissolution. High concentration of phosphate, nitrate, and chloride in the groundwater is the main anthropogenic source that needs treatment, quality control, and management in the catchment. From the Base Exchange Index Analysis, it is possible to understand that, in the catchment, the groundwater is dominated by the meteoritic origin, although it needs further groundwater chemistry study with isotope dating analysis.

Keywords: Ellala catchment, factor, chemistry, geochemical, groundwater

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932 Bayesian Locally Approach for Spatial Modeling of Visceral Leishmaniasis Infection in Northern and Central Tunisia

Authors: Kais Ben-Ahmed, Mhamed Ali-El-Aroui

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This paper develops a Local Generalized Linear Spatial Model (LGLSM) to describe the spatial variation of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) infection risk in northern and central Tunisia. The response from each region is a number of affected children less than five years of age recorded from 1996 through 2006 from Tunisian pediatric departments and treated as a poison county level data. The model includes climatic factors, namely averages of annual rainfall, extreme values of low temperatures in winter and high temperatures in summer to characterize the climate of each region according to each continentality index, the pluviometric quotient of Emberger (Q2) to characterize bioclimatic regions and component for residual extra-poison variation. The statistical results show the progressive increase in the number of affected children in regions with high continentality index and low mean yearly rainfull. On the other hand, an increase in pluviometric quotient of Emberger contributed to a significant increase in VL incidence rate. When compared with the original GLSM, Bayesian locally modeling is improvement and gives a better approximation of the Tunisian VL risk estimation. According to the Bayesian approach inference, we use vague priors for all parameters model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Keywords: generalized linear spatial model, local model, extra-poisson variation, continentality index, visceral leishmaniasis, Tunisia

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931 Effect of Dietarty Diversity on Maternal Dietary Diversity of Anemia of the Mother during Pregnancy and Prenatal Outcomes: Prospective Cohort Study in Rural Central Ethiopia

Authors: Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Melaku Umeta Deressa, Kaleab Baye

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Background: Maternal and child under-nutrition is the underlying cause of 3•5 million annual deaths, globally. Anemia during pregnancy is among the leading nutritional disorders with serious short and long term consequences to both the mother and fetus. Objective: Examine the effect of dietary diversity on maternal anemia, nutritional status and key pregnancy outcomes of pregnancy. Methods: A prospective cohort study design, involving a total of 432 eligible pregnant women, in their second antenatal care visit was conducted between August 2014 to March, 2015. The individual dietary diversity status of mothers was used as the exposure variable to select, enroll and follow the mothers. All mothers were enrolled during second antenatal care visit and followed until delivery. Epi-data, SPSS and STATA software are used to enter and analyze the data. Chi-square test, independent 't'-test, and GLM are used to calculate risk, association and differences between key variables at P < 0.05. Results: Study participants did not differ in many of the basic characteristics (p < 0.05). The incidence of maternal anemia increased significantly from 28.6% to 32.1% between baseline and term. Pregnant mothers with inadequate dietary diversity groups had more (56% at baseline and 68% at term) risk of anemia than the comparison (adequate) groups, (RR, 1.56 and 1.68; 95% CI, 1.24 - 1.83 and 1.39 - 2.04). The overall incidence of still birth, low birth weight and pre-term birth was 4.5%, 9.1% and 13.6%, respectively. The variation of these outcomes was significant across study groups (P < 0.05). Conclusion and recommendations: Dietary diversity status of pregnant mothers has significant effect on the incidence of anemia and key pregnancy outcomes in resource limited settings, like rural Ethiopia. Therefore, apart from the ongoing routine IFA supplementation, special emphasis should be given to dietary diversity of mothers to improve related outcomes of pregnancy and maternal health.

Keywords: anemia, birth weight, dietary diversity, pregnancy, pregnancy outcome

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930 Smallholder’s Agricultural Water Management Technology Adoption, Adoption Intensity and Their Determinants: The Case of Meda Welabu Woreda, Oromia, Ethiopia

Authors: Naod Mekonnen Anega

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The very objective of this paper was to empirically identify technology tailored determinants to the adoption and adoption intensity (extent of use) of agricultural water management technologies in Meda Welabu Woreda, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia. Meda Welabu Woreda which is one of the administrative Woredas of the Oromia regional state was selected purposively as this Woreda is one of the Woredas in the region where small scale irrigation practices and the use of agricultural water management technologies can be found among smallholders. Using the existence water management practices (use of water management technologies) and land use pattern as a criterion Genale Mekchira Kebele is selected to undergo the study. A total of 200 smallholders were selected from the Kebele using the technique developed by Krejeie and Morgan. The study employed the Logit and Tobit models to estimate and identify the economic, social, geographical, household, institutional, psychological, technological factors that determine adoption and adoption intensity of water management technologies. The study revealed that while 55 of the sampled households are adopters of agricultural water management technology the rest 140 were non adopters of the technologies. Among the adopters included in the sample 97% are using river diversion technology (traditional) with traditional canal while the rest 7% percent are using pond with treadle pump technology. The Logit estimation reveled that while adoption of river diversion is positively and significantly affected by membership to local institutions, active labor force, income, access to credit and land ownership, adoption of treadle pump technology is positively and significantly affected by family size, education level, access to credit, extension contact, income, access to market, and slope. The Logit estimation also revealed that whereas, group action requirement, distance to farm, and size of active labor force negative and significantly influenced adoption of river diversion, age and perception has negatively and significantly influenced adoption decision of treadle pump technology. On the other hand, the Tobit estimation reveled that while adoption intensity (extent of use) of agricultural water management is positively and significantly affected by education, credit, and extension contact, access to credit, access to market and income. This study revealed that technology tailored study on adoption of Agricultural water management technologies (AWMTs) should be considered to indentify and scale up best agricultural water management practices. In fact, in countries like Ethiopia, where there is difference in social, economic, cultural, environmental and agro ecological conditions even within the same Kebele technology tailored study that fit the condition of each Kebele would help to identify and scale up best practices in agricultural water management.

Keywords: water management technology, adoption, adoption intensity, smallholders, technology tailored approach

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929 An Exploration of German Tourists’ Market Demand Towards Ethiopian Tourist Destinations

Authors: Dagnew Dessie Mengie

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The purpose of this study was to investigate German tourists' demand for Ethiopian tourism destinations. The author has made every effort to identify the differences in the preferences of German visitors’ demand in Ethiopia comparing with Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania, and South African tourism sectors if they are invited to visit at the same time. However, the demand for international tourism for Ethiopia currently lags behind these African countries. Therefore, to offer demand-driven tourism products, the Ethiopian government and tour and travel operators need to understand the important factors that affect international tourists’ decision to visit Ethiopian tourist destinations. The aim of this study was to analyze German Tourists’ Demand for Ethiopian destinations. The researcher aimed to identify the demand for German tourists’ preference for Ethiopian tourist destinations compared to the above-mentioned African countries. For collecting and analysing data for this study, both quantitative and qualitative methods of research are being used in this study. The most significant data are collected by using the primary data collection method i.e. survey and interviews which are the most and large number of potential responses and feedback from nine German active tourists,12 Ethiopian tourism officials, four African embassies, and four well functioning private tour companies and secondary data collected from books, journals, previous research and electronic websites. Based on the data analysis of the information gathered from interviews and questionnaires, the study disclosed that the majority of German tourists do have not that high demand for Ethiopian Tourist destinations due to the following reasons: (1) Many Germans are fascinated by adventures and safari and simply want to lie on the beach and relax. These interests have leaded them to look for other African countries which have these accesses. (2) Uncomfortable infrastructure and transport problems are attributed to the decreasing number of German tourists in the country. (3) Inadequate marketing operation of the Ethiopian Tourism Authority and its delegates in advertising and clarifying the above irregularities which are raised by the tourists.

Keywords: environmental benefits of tourism, social benefits of tourism, economic benefits of tourism, political factors on tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 22