Search results for: 4/2 stochastic volatility model

Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

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Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Joseph Paul Chunga

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The investment universe is awash with a myriad of financial choices that investors have to opt for, which principally culminates into a duality between aggressive or conservative approaches. Howbeit, it is pertinent to emphasize that the investment vehicles with an aggressive approach tend to take on more risk than the latter group in an effort to generate higher future returns for their respective investors. This study examines the conditionality effect that such partiality in financing has on the High-Tech and Public Utility companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SSE). Specifically, it examines the significance of the relationship between capitalization ratios of Total Debt Ratio (TDR), Degree of Financial Leverage (DFL) and profitability ratios of Earnings per Share (EPS) and Returns on Equity (ROE) on the Financial Risk of the two industries. We employ a modified version of the Panel Regression Model used by Rahman (2017) to estimate the relationship. The study finds that there is a significant positive relationship between the capitalization ratios on the financial risk of Public Utility companies more than High-Tech companies and a substantial negative relationship between the profitability ratios and the financial risk of the former than the latter companies. This then spells an important insight for prospective investors with regards to the volatility of earnings of such companies.

Keywords: financial leverage, debt financing, conservative firms, aggressive firms

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Paul Rowley, Adam Thirkill, Nick Doylend, Philip Leicester, Becky Gough

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The dynamic performance of all energy generation technologies is impacted to varying degrees by the stochastic properties of the wider system within which the generation technology is located. This stochasticity can include the varying nature of ambient renewable energy resources such as wind or solar radiation, or unpredicted changes in energy demand which impact upon the operational behaviour of thermal generation technologies. An understanding of these stochastic impacts are especially important in contexts such as highly distributed (or embedded) generation, where an understanding of issues affecting the individual or aggregated performance of high numbers of relatively small generators is especially important, such as in ESCO projects. Probabilistic evaluation of monitored or simulated performance data is one technique which can provide an insight into the dynamic performance characteristics of generating systems, both in a prognostic sense (such as the prediction of future performance at the project’s design stage) as well as in a diagnostic sense (such as in the real-time analysis of underperforming systems). In this work, we describe the development, application and outcomes of a new approach to the acquisition of datasets suitable for use in the subsequent performance and impact analysis (including the use of Bayesian approaches) for a number of distributed generation technologies. The application of the approach is illustrated using a number of case studies involving domestic and small commercial scale photovoltaic, solar thermal and natural gas boiler installations, and the results as presented show that the methodology offers significant advantages in terms of plant efficiency prediction or diagnosis, along with allied environmental and social impacts such as greenhouse gas emission reduction or fuel affordability.

Keywords: renewable energy, dynamic performance simulation, Bayesian analysis, distributed generation

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Authors: Zhiguo Shi, Cheng Ning Loong, Jiazeng Shan, Weichao Wu

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This study proposes an equivalent circuit model to simulate the eddy current damping force with shaking table tests and finite element modeling. The model is firstly proposed and applied to a simple eddy current damper, which is modelled in ANSYS, indicating that the proposed model can simulate the eddy current damping force under different types of excitations. Then, a non-contact and friction-free eddy current damper is designed and tested, and the proposed model can reproduce the experimental observations. The excellent agreement between the simulated results and the experimental data validates the accuracy and reliability of the equivalent circuit model. Furthermore, a more complicated model is performed in ANSYS to verify the feasibility of the equivalent circuit model in complex eddy current damper, and the higher-order fractional model and viscous model are adopted for comparison.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, eddy current damping, finite element model, shake table test

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Authors: M. T. Alodat

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In this paper, we propose a generalization to the Gaussian process regression(GPR) model called the extended skew Gaussian process for regression(ESGPr) model. The ESGPR model works better than the GPR model when the errors are skewed. We derive the predictive distribution for the ESGPR model at a new input. Also we apply the ESGPR model to FOREX data and we find that it fits the Forex data better than the GPR model.

Keywords: extended skew normal distribution, Gaussian process for regression, predictive distribution, ESGPr model

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Authors: Mohammed Abu Shquier

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This paper introduces a word segmentation method using the novel BP-LSTM-CRF architecture for processing semantic output training. The objective of web morphological analysis tools is to link a formal morpho-syntactic description to a lemma, along with morpho-syntactic information, a vocalized form, a vocalized analysis with morpho-syntactic information, and a list of paradigms. A key objective is to continuously enhance the proposed system through an inductive learning approach that considers semantic influences. The system is currently under construction and development based on data-driven learning. To evaluate the tool, an experiment on homograph analysis was conducted. The tool also encompasses the assumption of deep binary segmentation hypotheses, the arbitrary choice of trigram or n-gram continuation probabilities, language limitations, and morphology for both Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) and Dialectal Arabic (DA), which provide justification for updating this system. Most Arabic word analysis systems are based on the phonotactic morpho-syntactic analysis of a word transmitted using lexical rules, which are mainly used in MENA language technology tools, without taking into account contextual or semantic morphological implications. Therefore, it is necessary to have an automatic analysis tool taking into account the word sense and not only the morpho-syntactic category. Moreover, they are also based on statistical/stochastic models. These stochastic models, such as HMMs, have shown their effectiveness in different NLP applications: part-of-speech tagging, machine translation, speech recognition, etc. As an extension, we focus on language modeling using Recurrent Neural Network (RNN); given that morphological analysis coverage was very low in dialectal Arabic, it is significantly important to investigate deeply how the dialect data influence the accuracy of these approaches by developing dialectal morphological processing tools to show that dialectal variability can support to improve analysis.

Keywords: NLP, DL, ML, analyser, MSA, RNN, CNN

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Authors: Ulrich Wake, Eniman Syamsuddin

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The model for camera model identificaiton is trained using pretrained model ResNet43 and ResNet50. The dataset consists of 500 photos of each phone. Dataset is divided into 1280 photos for training, 320 photos for validation and 400 photos for testing. The model is trained using One Cycle Policy Method and tested using Test-Time Augmentation. Furthermore, the model is trained for 50 epoch using regularization such as drop out and early stopping. The result is 90% accuracy for validation set and above 85% for Test-Time Augmentation using ResNet50. Every model is also trained by slightly updating the pretrained model’s weights

Keywords: ​ One Cycle Policy, ResNet34, ResNet50, Test-Time Agumentation

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Authors: Hideaki Endo, Mika Goto

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The global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has seriously affected railway businesses. The number of railway passengers decreased due to the decline in the number of commuters and business travelers to avoid crowded trains and a sharp drop in inbound tourists visiting Japan. This has affected not only railway businesses but also related businesses, including hotels, leisure businesses, and retail businesses at station buildings. In 2021, the companies were divided into profitable and loss-making companies. This division suggests that railway companies, particularly loss-making companies, needed to decrease operational inefficiency. To measure the impact of COVID-19 and discuss the sustainable management strategies of railway companies, we examine the cost inefficiency of Japanese listed railway companies by applying stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to their operational and financial data. First, we employ the stochastic frontier cost function approach to measure inefficiency. The cost frontier function is formulated as a Cobb–Douglas type, and we estimated parameters and variables for inefficiency. This study uses panel data comprising 26 Japanese-listed railway companies from 2005 to 2020. This period includes several events deteriorating the business environment, such as the financial crisis from 2007 to 2008 and the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, and we compare those impacts with those of the COVID-19 pandemic after 2020. Second, we identify the characteristics of the best-practice railway companies and examine the drivers of cost inefficiencies. Third, we analyze the factors influencing cost inefficiency by comparing the profiles of the top 10 railway companies and others before and during the pandemic. Finally, we examine the relationship between cost inefficiency and the implementation of efficiency measures for each railway company. We obtained the following four findings. First, most Japanese railway companies showed the lowest cost inefficiency (most efficient) in 2014 and the highest in 2020 (least efficient) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The second worst occurred in 2009 when it was affected by the financial crisis. However, we did not observe a significant impact of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. This is because no railway company was influenced by the earthquake in this operating area, except for JR-EAST. Second, the best-practice railway companies are KEIO and TOKYU. The main reason for their good performance is that both operate in and near the Tokyo metropolitan area, which is densely populated. Third, we found that non-best-practice companies had a larger decrease in passenger kilometers than best-practice companies. This indicates that passengers made fewer long-distance trips because they refrained from inter-prefectural travel during the pandemic. Finally, we found that companies that implement more efficiency improvement measures had higher cost efficiency and they effectively used their customer databases through proactive DX investments in marketing and asset management.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, stochastic frontier analysis, railway sector, cost efficiency

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Authors: Ashraf Ward

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Effect of calving interval on 305 day milk yield for first three lactations was studied in order to increase efficiency of selection schemes and to more efficiently manage Holstein cows that have been raised on small farms in Libya. Results obtained by processing data of 1476 cows, managed in 935 small scale farms, pointed out that current calving interval significantly affects on milk production for first three lactations (p<0.05). Preceding calving interval affected 305 day milk yield (p<0.05) in second lactation only. Linear regression model accounted for 20-25 % of the total variance of 305 day milk yield. Extension of calving interval over 420, 430, 450 days for first, second and third lactations respectively, did not increase milk production when converted to 305 day lactation. Stochastic relations between calving interval and calving age and month are moderated. Values of Pierson’s correlation coefficients ranged 0.38 to 0.69. Adjustment of milk production in order to reduce effect of calving interval on total phenotypic variance of milk yield is valid for first lactation only. Adjustment of 305 day milk yield for second and third lactations in order to reduce effects of factors “calving age and month” brings about, at the same time, elimination of calving interval effect.

Keywords: milk yield, Holstien, non genetic, calving

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Authors: Le Kang

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According to the nature of the university, as a free and responsible academic community, USR is based on a different foundation —academic responsibility, so the Pyramid and the IC Model of CSR could not fully explain the most distinguished feature of USR. This paper sought to put forward a new model— Ferris Wheel Model, to illustrate the nature of USR and the process of achievement. The Ferris Wheel Model of USR shows the university creates a balanced, fairness and neutrality systemic structure to afford social responsibilities; that makes the organization could obtain a synergistic effect to achieve more extensive interests of stakeholders and wider social responsibilities.

Keywords: USR, achievement model, ferris wheel model, social responsibilities

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Authors: Muhammad Ahnaf Zahin, Yaw Adu-Gyamfi

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Bus transit is a crucial component of transportation networks, especially in urban areas. Any intelligent transportation system must have accurate real-time information on bus travel times since it minimizes waiting times for passengers at different stations along a route, improves service reliability, and significantly optimizes travel patterns. Bus agencies must enhance the quality of their information service to serve their passengers better and draw in more travelers since people waiting at bus stops are frequently anxious about when the bus will arrive at their starting point and when it will reach their destination. For solving this issue, different models have been developed for predicting bus travel times recently, but most of them are focused on smaller road networks due to their relatively subpar performance in high-density urban areas on a vast network. This paper develops a deep learning-based architecture using a single-step multi-station forecasting approach to predict average bus travel times for numerous routes, stops, and trips on a large-scale network using heterogeneous bus transit data collected from the GTFS database. Over one week, data was gathered from multiple bus routes in Saint Louis, Missouri. In this study, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network was followed to predict the mean vehicle travel times for different hours of the day for multiple stations along multiple routes. Historical time steps and prediction horizon were set up to 5 and 1, respectively, which means that five hours of historical average travel time data were used to predict average travel time for the following hour. The spatial and temporal information and the historical average travel times were captured from the dataset for model input parameters. As adjacency matrices for the spatial input parameters, the station distances and sequence numbers were used, and the time of day (hour) was considered for the temporal inputs. Other inputs, including volatility information such as standard deviation and variance of journey durations, were also included in the model to make it more robust. The model's performance was evaluated based on a metric called mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The observed prediction errors for various routes, trips, and stations remained consistent throughout the day. The results showed that the developed model could predict travel times more accurately during peak traffic hours, having a MAPE of around 14%, and performed less accurately during the latter part of the day. In the context of a complicated transportation network in high-density urban areas, the model showed its applicability for real-time travel time prediction of public transportation and ensured the high quality of the predictions generated by the model.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, mean absolute percentage error, single-step forecasting, travel time prediction.

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

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This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a utility interactive three phase inverter (TPI) for a photovoltaic (PV) system at commercial level. The proposed model uses phase locked loop (PLL) to synchronize TPI with the power electric grid (PEG) and performs MPC control in a dq reference frame. TPI model consists of boost converter (BC), maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control, and a three leg voltage source inverter (VSI). Operational model of VSI is used to synthesize sinusoidal current and track the reference. Model is validated using a 35.7 kW PV system in Matlab/Simulink. Implementation and results show simplicity and accuracy, as well as reliability of the model.

Keywords: model predictive control, three phase voltage source inverter, PV system, Matlab/simulink

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Authors: P. Selyshchev

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We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.

Keywords: irradiation, primary defects, interaction, fluctuations

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Authors: Amreth Chandrasehar

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Machine Learning (ML) Models are developed and run in production to solve various use cases that help organizations to be more efficient and help drive the business. But this comes at a massive development cost and lost business opportunities. According to the Gartner report, 85% of data science projects fail, and one of the factors impacting this is not paying attention to Model Observability. Model Observability helps the developers and operators to pinpoint the model performance issues data drift and help identify root cause of issues. This paper focuses on providing insights into incorporating model observability in model development and operationalizing it in production.

Keywords: model observability, monitoring, drift detection, ML observability platform

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Authors: S. A. Sadegh Zadeh, C. Kambhampati

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Mathematical and computational modellings are the necessary tools for reviewing, analysing, and predicting processes and events in the wide spectrum range of scientific fields. Therefore, in a field as rapidly developing as neuroscience, the combination of these two modellings can have a significant role in helping to guide the direction the field takes. The paper combined mathematical and computational modelling to prove a weakness in a very precious model in neuroscience. This paper is intended to analyse all-or-none principle in Hodgkin-Huxley mathematical model. By implementation the computational model of Hodgkin-Huxley model and applying the concept of all-or-none principle, an investigation on this mathematical model has been performed. The results clearly showed that the mathematical model of Hodgkin-Huxley does not observe this fundamental law in neurophysiology to generating action potentials. This study shows that further mathematical studies on the Hodgkin-Huxley model are needed in order to create a model without this weakness.

Keywords: all-or-none, computational modelling, mathematical model, transmembrane voltage, action potential

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Authors: Yildiz Stella Dak, Jale Tezcan

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Ground motion models that relate a strong motion parameter of interest to a set of predictive seismological variables describing the earthquake source, the propagation path of the seismic wave, and the local site conditions constitute a critical component of seismic hazard analyses. When a sufficient number of strong motion records are available, ground motion relations are developed using statistical analysis of the recorded ground motion data. In regions lacking a sufficient number of recordings, a synthetic database is developed using stochastic, theoretical or hybrid approaches. Regardless of the manner the database was developed, ground motion relations are developed using regression analysis. Development of a ground motion relation is a challenging process which inevitably requires the modeler to make subjective decisions regarding the inclusion criteria of the recordings, the functional form of the model and the set of seismological variables to be included in the model. Because these decisions are critically important to the validity and the applicability of the model, there is a continuous interest on procedures that will facilitate the development of ground motion models. This paper proposes the use of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) in selecting the set predictive seismological variables to be used in developing a ground motion relation. The LASSO can be described as a penalized regression technique with a built-in capability of variable selection. Similar to the ridge regression, the LASSO is based on the idea of shrinking the regression coefficients to reduce the variance of the model. Unlike ridge regression, where the coefficients are shrunk but never set equal to zero, the LASSO sets some of the coefficients exactly to zero, effectively performing variable selection. Given a set of candidate input variables and the output variable of interest, LASSO allows ranking the input variables in terms of their relative importance, thereby facilitating the selection of the set of variables to be included in the model. Because the risk of overfitting increases as the ratio of the number of predictors to the number of recordings increases, selection of a compact set of variables is important in cases where a small number of recordings are available. In addition, identification of a small set of variables can improve the interpretability of the resulting model, especially when there is a large number of candidate predictors. A practical application of the proposed approach is presented, using more than 600 recordings from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) database, where the effect of a set of seismological predictors on the 5% damped maximum direction spectral acceleration is investigated. The set of candidate predictors considered are Magnitude, Rrup, Vs30. Using LASSO, the relative importance of the candidate predictors has been ranked. Regression models with increasing levels of complexity were constructed using one, two, three, and four best predictors, and the models’ ability to explain the observed variance in the target variable have been compared. The bias-variance trade-off in the context of model selection is discussed.

Keywords: ground motion modeling, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, penalized regression, variable selection

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Authors: Konstantinos Liagkouras, Konstantinos Metaxiotis

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In this paper we present a classification of the various technologies applied for the solution of the portfolio selection problem according to the discipline and the methodological framework followed. We provide a concise presentation of the emerged categories and we are trying to identify which methods considered obsolete and which lie at the heart of the debate. On top of that, we provide a comparative study of the different technologies applied for efficient portfolio construction and we suggest potential paths for future work that lie at the intersection of the presented techniques.

Keywords: portfolio selection, optimization techniques, financial models, stochastic, heuristics

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Authors: Muleya Nqobile, Winston Garira

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We presented a compartmental deterministic multi-scale model which encompass internal plant defensive mechanism and pathogen interaction, then we consider nesting the model into the epidemiological model. The objective was to improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of within host and between host of Guignardia citricapa Kiely. The inflow of infected class was scaled down to individual level while the outflow was scaled up to average population level. Conceptual model and mathematical model were constructed to display a theoretical framework which can be used for predicting or identify disease pattern.

Keywords: epidemiological model, mathematical modelling, multi-scale modelling, immunological model

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Authors: Danielle Katrina Santos, Koji Shimada

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Environmentally-friendly agriculture has been promoted for over two decades as a response to the environmental challenges brought by climate change and biological loss. Located above the equator, it is possible that Japan may benefit from future climate change, yet Japan is also a rarely developed country located in the Asian Monsoon climate region, making it vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this regard, the Japanese government has initiated policies to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change through the promotion and popularization of environmentally-friendly farming practices. This study aims to determine profit efficiency among environmentally-friendly rice farmers in Shiga Prefecture using the Stochastic Frontier Approach. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 66 farmers from top rice-producing cities through a structured questionnaire. Results showed that the gross farm income of environmentally-friendly rice farmers was higher by JPY 316,223.00/ha. Production costs were also found to be higher among environmentally-friendly rice farmers, especially on labor costs, which accounted for 32% of the total rice production cost. The resulting net farm income of environmentally-friendly rice farmers was only higher by JPY 18,044/ha. Results from the stochastic frontier analysis further showed that the profit efficiency of conventional farmers was only 69% as compared to environmentally-friendly rice farmers who had a profit efficiency of 76%. Furthermore, environmentally-friendly agriculture participation, other types of subsidy, educational level, and farm size were significant factors positively influencing profit efficiency. The study concluded that substitution of environmentally-friendly agriculture for conventional rice farming would result in an increased profit efficiency due to the direct payment subsidy and price premium received. The direct government policies that would strengthen the popularization of environmentally-friendly agriculture to increase the production of environmentally-friendly products and reduce pollution load to the Lake Biwa ecosystem.

Keywords: profit efficiency, environmentally-friendly agriculture, rice farmers, direct payment subsidies

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Authors: Jaouadi Imen, Ben Djemaa Raoudha, Ben Abdallah Hanene

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The access to relevant information that is adapted to users’ needs, preferences and environment is a challenge in many applications running. That causes an appearance of context-aware systems. To facilitate the development of this class of applications, it is necessary that these applications share a common context meta-model. In this article, we will present our context meta-model that is defined using the OMG Meta Object facility (MOF). This meta-model is based on the analysis and synthesis of context concepts proposed in literature.

Keywords: context, meta-model, MOF, awareness system

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Authors: Rabbia Idrees, Ananda Maiti, Saurabh Garg, Muhammad Bilal Amin

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IoT devices are the basic building blocks of IoT network that generate enormous volume of real-time and high-speed data to help organizations and companies to take intelligent decisions. To integrate this enormous data from multisource and transfer it to the appropriate client is the fundamental of IoT development. The handling of this huge quantity of devices along with the huge volume of data is very challenging. The IoT devices are battery-powered and resource-constrained and to provide energy efficient communication, these IoT devices go sleep or online/wakeup periodically and a-periodically depending on the traffic loads to reduce energy consumption. Sometime these devices get disconnected due to device battery depletion. If the node is not available in the network, then the IoT network provides incomplete, missing, and inaccurate data. Moreover, many IoT applications, like vehicle tracking and patient tracking require the IoT devices to be mobile. Due to this mobility, If the distance of the device from the sink node become greater than required, the connection is lost. Due to this disconnection other devices join the network for replacing the broken-down and left devices. This make IoT devices dynamic in nature which brings uncertainty and unreliability in the IoT network and hence produce bad quality of data. Due to this dynamic nature of IoT devices we do not know the actual reason of abnormal data. If data are of poor-quality decisions are likely to be unsound. It is highly important to process data and estimate data quality before bringing it to use in IoT applications. In the past many researchers tried to estimate data quality and provided several Machine Learning (ML), stochastic and statistical methods to perform analysis on stored data in the data processing layer, without focusing the challenges and issues arises from the dynamic nature of IoT devices and how it is impacting data quality. A comprehensive review on determining the impact of dynamic nature of IoT devices on data quality is done in this research and presented a data quality model that can deal with this challenge and produce good quality of data. This research presents the data quality model for the sensors monitoring water quality. DBSCAN clustering and weather sensors are used in this research to make data quality model for the sensors monitoring water quality. An extensive study has been done in this research on finding the relationship between the data of weather sensors and sensors monitoring water quality of the lakes and beaches. The detailed theoretical analysis has been presented in this research mentioning correlation between independent data streams of the two sets of sensors. With the help of the analysis and DBSCAN, a data quality model is prepared. This model encompasses five dimensions of data quality: outliers’ detection and removal, completeness, patterns of missing values and checks the accuracy of the data with the help of cluster’s position. At the end, the statistical analysis has been done on the clusters formed as the result of DBSCAN, and consistency is evaluated through Coefficient of Variation (CoV).

Keywords: clustering, data quality, DBSCAN, and Internet of things (IoT)

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Authors: Saeed Poormoaied

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Perishability and developing an intelligent control policy for perishable items are the major concerns of marketing managers in a supply chain. In this study, we address a two-echelon supply chain problem for perishable items with a single vendor and a single buyer. The buyer adopts an aged-based continuous review policy which works by taking both the stock level and the aging process of items into account. The vendor works under the warehouse framework, where its lot size is determined with respect to the batch size of the buyer. The model holds for a positive and fixed lead time for the buyer, and zero lead time for the vendor. The demand follows a Poisson process and any unmet demand is lost. We provide exact analytic expressions for the operational characteristics of the system by using the renewal reward theorem. Items have a fixed lifetime after which they become unusable and are disposed of from the buyer's system. The age of items starts when they are unpacked and ready for the consumption at the buyer. When items are held by the vendor, there is no aging process which results in no perishing at the vendor's site. The model is developed under the centralized framework, which takes the expected profit of both vendor and buyer into consideration. The goal is to determine the optimal policy parameters under the service level constraint at the retailer's site. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of the key input parameters on the expected profit and order quantity in the supply chain. The efficiency of the proposed age-based policy is also evaluated through a numerical study. Our results show that when the unit perishing cost is negligible, a significant cost saving is achieved.

Keywords: two-echelon supply chain, perishable items, age-based policy, renewal reward theorem

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Authors: Yong-Heng Shi, Peng Hao, Bai-Chen Xie

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Solar prosumers are playing increasingly prominent roles in the power system. However, its uncertainty affects the outcomes and functions of the power market, especially in the asymmetric information environment. Therefore, an important issue is how to take effective measures to reduce the impact of uncertainty on market equilibrium. We propose a two-level stochastic differential game model to explore the Cournot decision problem of prosumers. In particular, we study the impact of punishment and cooperation mechanisms on the efficiency of the Cournot game in which prosumers face uncertainty. The results show that under the penalty mechanism of fixed and variable rates, producers and consumers tend to take conservative actions to hedge risks, and the variable rates mechanism is more reasonable. Compared with non-cooperative situations, prosumers can improve the efficiency of the game through cooperation, which we attribute to the superposition of market power and uncertainty reduction. In addition, the market environment of asymmetric information intensifies the role of uncertainty. It reduces social welfare but increases the income of prosumers. For regulators, promoting alliances is an effective measure to realize the integration, optimization, and stable grid connection of producers and consumers.

Keywords: Cournot games, power market, uncertainty, prosumer cooperation

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

Keywords: ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors

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Authors: Anthony Usoro

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In this paper, two classes of bilinear time series model are obtained under certain conditions from the general bilinear autoregressive moving average model. Bilinear Autoregressive (BAR) and Bilinear Moving Average (BMA) Models have been identified. From the general bilinear model, BAR and BMA models have been proved to exist for q = Q = 0, => j = 0, and p = P = 0, => i = 0 respectively. These models are found useful in modelling most of the economic and financial data.

Keywords: autoregressive model, bilinear autoregressive model, bilinear moving average model, moving average model

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Authors: Shank Kulkarni, Alireza Tabarraei

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The fantastic properties of polyurea such as flexibility, durability, and chemical resistance have brought it a wide range of application in various industries. Effective prediction of the response of polyurea under different loading and environmental conditions necessitates the development of an accurate constitutive model. Similar to most polymers, the behavior of polyurea depends on both strain and strain rate. Therefore, the constitutive model should be able to capture both these effects on the response of polyurea. To achieve this objective, in this paper, a nonlinear hyper-viscoelastic constitutive model is developed by the superposition of a hyperelastic and a viscoelastic model. The proposed constitutive model can capture the behavior of polyurea under compressive loading conditions at various strain rates. Four parameter Ogden model and Mooney Rivlin model are used to modeling the hyperelastic behavior of polyurea. The viscoelastic behavior is modeled using both a three-parameter standard linear solid (SLS) model and a K-BKZ model. Comparison of the modeling results with experiments shows that Odgen and SLS model can more accurately predict the behavior of polyurea. The material parameters of the model are found by curve fitting of the proposed model to the uniaxial compression test data. The proposed model can closely reproduce the stress-strain behavior of polyurea for strain rates up to 6500 /s.

Keywords: constitutive modelling, ogden model, polyurea, SLS model, uniaxial compression test

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Authors: Hussein Altartouri

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In this paper the kinematic and kinetic models of an omnidirectional holonomic mobile robot is presented. The kinematic and kinetic models form the OmniDrive model. Therefore, a mathematical model for the robot equipped with three- omnidirectional wheels is derived. This model which takes into consideration the kinematics and kinetics of the robot, is developed to state space representation. Relative analysis of the velocities and displacements is used for the kinematics of the robot. Lagrange’s approach is considered in this study for deriving the equation of motion. The drive train and the mechanical assembly only of the Festo Robotino® is considered in this model. Mainly the model is developed for motion control. Furthermore, the model can be used for simulation purposes in different virtual environments not only Robotino® View. Further use of the model is in the mechatronics research fields with the aim of teaching and learning the advanced control theories.

Keywords: mobile robot, omni-direction wheel, mathematical model, holonomic mobile robot

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Authors: Andres F. Ramirez, Carlos F. Valencia

Abstract:

The increasing interest in renewable energies strategies application and the path for diminishing the use of carbon related energy sources have encouraged the development of novel strategies for integration of solar energy into the electricity network. A correct inclusion of the fluctuating energy output of a photovoltaic (PV) energy system into an electric grid requires improvements in the forecasting and simulation methodologies for solar energy potential, and the understanding not only of the mean value of the series but the associated underlying stochastic process. We present a methodology for synthetic generation of solar irradiance (shortwave flux) and air temperature bivariate time series based on copula functions to represent the cross-dependence and temporal structure of the data. We explore the advantages of using this nonlinear time series method over traditional approaches that use a transformation of the data to normal distributions as an intermediate step. The use of copulas gives flexibility to represent the serial variability of the real data on the simulation and allows having more control on the desired properties of the data. We use discrete zero mass density distributions to assess the nature of solar irradiance, alongside vector generalized linear models for the bivariate time series time dependent distributions. We found that the copula autoregressive methodology used, including the zero mass characteristics of the solar irradiance time series, generates a significant improvement over state of the art strategies. These results will help to better understand the fluctuating nature of solar energy forecasting, the underlying stochastic process, and quantify the potential of a photovoltaic (PV) energy generating system integration into a country electricity network. Experimental analysis and real data application substantiate the usage and convenience of the proposed methodology to forecast solar irradiance time series and solar energy across northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere, and equatorial zones.

Keywords: copula autoregressive, solar irradiance forecasting, solar energy forecasting, time series generation

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Authors: T. N. Mac, B. Shahbodaghkhan, N. Khalili

Abstract:

A new elastic-viscoplastic (EVP) constitutive model is proposed for the analysis of time-dependent behavior of clay. The proposed model is based on the bounding surface plasticity and the concept of viscoplastic consistency framework to establish continuous transition from plasticity to rate dependent viscoplasticity. Unlike the overstress based models, this model will meet the consistency condition in formulating the constitutive equation for EVP model. The procedure of deriving the constitutive relationship is also presented. Simulation results and comparisons with experimental data are then presented to demonstrate the performance of the model.

Keywords: bounding surface, consistency theory, constitutive model, viscosity

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Authors: Eric Pla Erra, Mariana Jimenez Martinez

Abstract:

While aggregated loads at a community level tend to be easier to predict, individual household load forecasting present more challenges with higher volatility and uncertainty. Furthermore, the drastic changes that our behavior patterns have suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic have modified our daily electrical consumption curves and, therefore, further complicated the forecasting methods used to predict short-term electric load. Load forecasting is vital for the smooth and optimized planning and operation of our electric grids, but it also plays a crucial role for individual domestic consumers that rely on a HEMS (Home Energy Management Systems) to optimize their energy usage through self-generation, storage, or smart appliances management. An accurate forecasting leads to higher energy savings and overall energy efficiency of the household when paired with a proper HEMS. In order to study how COVID-19 has affected the accuracy of forecasting methods, an evaluation of the performance of a state-of-the-art LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Model) will be conducted during the transition between pre-pandemic and lockdowns periods, considering day-ahead electric load forecasting. LGBM improves the capabilities of standard Decision Tree models in both speed and reduction of memory consumption, but it still offers a high accuracy. Even though LGBM has complex non-linear modelling capabilities, it has proven to be a competitive method under challenging forecasting scenarios such as short series, heterogeneous series, or data patterns with minimal prior knowledge. An adaptation of the LGBM model – called “resilient LGBM” – will be also tested, incorporating a concept drift detection technique for time series analysis, with the purpose to evaluate its capabilities to improve the model’s accuracy during extreme events such as COVID-19 lockdowns. The results for the LGBM and resilient LGBM will be compared using standard RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) as the main performance metric. The models’ performance will be evaluated over a set of real households’ hourly electricity consumption data measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. All households are located in the city of Barcelona, Spain, and present different consumption profiles. This study is carried out under the ComMit-20 project, financed by AGAUR (Agència de Gestiód’AjutsUniversitaris), which aims to determine the short and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on building energy consumption, incrementing the resilience of electrical systems through the use of tools such as HEMS and artificial intelligence.

Keywords: concept drift, forecasting, home energy management system (HEMS), light gradient boosting model (LGBM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 105