Search results for: decision tree classifiers

Authors: J. B. Athavale, Sean Clarke

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Introduction According to ancient Indian scriptures, a person’s consciousness includes the physical body, the vital energy sheath (Pranshakti), the mental body (which includes one’s feelings and emotions), the intellectual body (which refers to one’s decision-making ability), and the Soul (which is the God Principle that resides in every person). Apart from the physical body, all the other aspects are subtle in nature. In today’s world, much attention is given to one’s physical appearance and intellectual prowess. While there have been improvements in the attention given to mental health, its complete nature is not understood, and in many cultures, mental ill health is considered taboo and looked down upon. Regarding the spiritual well-being of a person, our spiritual research has shown that people’s understanding and efforts are mostly lacking and superficial as they do not conform to Universal Spiritual Principles. Also, true well-being occurs only when all the bodies are healthy. Methodology The spiritual research team at the University has found that the spiritual aspect of a person’s life affects all the physical, psychological, and intellectual bodies of a person resulting in ill health. Cleansing these bodies at a spiritual level is essential to regain well-being. Using Aura and Energy Scanners and advanced sixth sense, we studied what causes spiritual impurity in various bodies and how to cleanse them. We measured the spiritual vibrations of a person and how they get affected due to various daily activities. For example, we studied the difference in a person’s aura before and after applying chemical-based makeup vs. natural makeup. Key Findings From the various spiritual research experiments we conducted, we found that: • All our actions and our thoughts affect our various bodies and have the potential to change the aura for the better or worse. • When there is an increase in negative vibrations around a person, negative energies from the subtle dimension are more likely to affect a person. • As the person’s spiritual level increases, the positivity in their aura also increases, and it is much easier to cleanse the various bodies spiritually. • Spiritual practice is like a general spiritual tonic that increases the positivity in one’s aura. The benefits of this are that it leads to mental stability and intellectual clarity. • Spiritual healing remedies augment any spiritual practice to obtain a faster healing effect. Conclusion Taking care of oneself spiritually has a positive halo effect on all one’s bodies. Spiritual cleansing is required regularly if one wants to attain a state of well-being. Spiritual practice and spiritual healing lead to spiritual growth, stability of mind, and less stress and reactions. Spiritually purer people affect the environment positively, and there is less unrest and more harmony between man and nature.

Keywords: body, spirituality, cleansing, consciousness

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Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

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Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

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Authors: Mustarakh Gelfi, Tiedo Vellinga, Poonam Taneja, Delon Hamonangan

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The development of New Priok/Kalibaru as an expansion terminal of the old port has been being done by IPC (Indonesia Port Cooperation) together with the subsidiary company, Port Developer (PT Pengembangan Pelabuhan Indonesia). As stated in the master plan, from 2 phases that had been proposed, phase I has shown its form and even Container Terminal I has been operated in 2016. It was planned principally, the development will be divided into Phase I (2013-2018) consist of 3 container terminals and 2 product terminals and Phase II (2018-2023) consist of 4 container terminals. In fact, the master plan has to be changed due to some major uncertainties which were escaped in prediction. This study is focused on the design scenario of phase II (2035- onwards) to deal with future uncertainty. The outcome is the robust design of phase II of the Kalibaru Terminal taking into account the future changes. Flexibility has to be a major goal in such a large infrastructure project like New Priok in order to deal and manage future uncertainty. The phasing of project needs to be adapted and re-look frequently before being irrelevant to future challenges. One of the frameworks that have been developed by an expert in port planning is Adaptive Port Planning (APP) with scenario-based planning. The idea behind APP framework is the adaptation that might be needed at any moment as an answer to a challenge. It is a continuous procedure that basically aims to increase the lifespan of waterborne transport infrastructure by increasing flexibility in the planning, contracting and design phases. Other methods used in this study are brainstorming with the port authority, desk study, interview and site visit to the real project. The result of the study is expected to be the insight for the port authority of Tanjung Priok over the future look and how it will impact the design of the port. There will be guidelines to do the design in an uncertain environment as well. Solutions of flexibility can be divided into: 1 - Physical solutions, all the items related hard infrastructure in the projects. The common things in this type of solution are using modularity, standardization, multi-functional, shorter and longer design lifetime, reusability, etc. 2 - Non-physical solutions, usually related to the planning processes, decision making and management of the projects. To conclude, APP framework seems quite robust to deal with the problem of designing phase II of New Priok Project for such a long period.

Keywords: Indonesia port, port's design, port planning, scenario-based planning

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Authors: Trude Tørset, María Díez Gutiérrez

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The west coast of Norway features numerous islands and fjords. Ferry services connect the roads when these features make the construction challenging. Currently, scientific effort is designated to assess potential ferry replacement projects along the European road E-39. The inconvenience of ferry dependency is imprecisely represented in the transport models, thus transport analyses of ferry replacement projects appear as guesstimates rather than reliable input to decision-making processes of such costly projects. Trips including ferry connections imply more inconvenient elements than just travel time and cost. The goal of this paper is to understand and explain the extra inconveniences associated to the dependency of the ferry. The first scientific approach is to identify the characteristics of the ferry travelers and their trips’ features, as well as whether the ferry represents an obstacle for some specific trip types. In doing so, a survey was conducted in 2011 in eight E-39 ferries and in 2013 in 18 ferries connecting different road categories. More than 20,000 passengers answered with their trip and socioeconomic characteristics. The travel patterns in the different ferry connections were compared. The analysis showed that the trip features differed based on the location of the ferry connections, yet independently of the road category. Additionally, the patterns were compared to the national travel survey to detect differences in the travel patterns due to the use of the ferry connections. The results showed that the share of commuting trips within the same travel time was lower if the ferry was part of the trip. The second scientific approach is to know how the different travelers perceive potential benefits for a ferry replacement project. In the 2011 survey, some of the questions were about the relevance of nine different benefits this project might bring. Travelers identified the better access to public services and job market as the most valuable benefits, followed by the reduced planning of the trip. In 2016, a follow-up survey in some of the ferry connections was carried out in order to investigate variations in travelers’ perceptions. The growing interest in ferry replacement projects might make travelers more aware of the potential benefits these would bring to their daily lives. This paper describes the travel behaviour of travelers using a ferry connection as part of their trips, as well as the potential inconveniences associated to these trips. The findings might provide valuable input to further development of transport models, concept evaluations and cost benefit analysis methods.

Keywords: ferry connections, ferry trip, inconvenience costs, travel behaviour

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Authors: Pratima Thapa

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Background: It is very critical to understand that awareness of family planning and proper utilization of contraceptives is an important indicator for reducing maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity. It also plays an important role in promoting reproductive health of the women in an underdeveloped country like ours. Objective: To assess knowledge, attitude and practices of contraception among married women of reproductive age group in selected wards of Dharan Sub-Metropolitan City. Materials and methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted among 209 married women of reproductive age. Simple random sampling was used to select the wards, population proportionate sampling for selecting the sample numbers from each wards and purposive sampling for selecting each sample. Semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect data. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to interpret the data considering p-value 0.05. Results: The mean ± SD age of the respondents was 30.01 ± 8.12 years. Majority 92.3% had ever heard of contraception. Popular known method was Inj. Depo (92.7%). Mass media (85.8%) was the major source of information. Mean percentage score of knowledge was 45.23%.less than half (45%) had adequate knowledge. Majority 90.4% had positive attitude. Only 64.6% were using contraceptives currently. Misbeliefs and fear of side effects were the main reason for not using contraceptives. Education, occupation, and total income of the family was associated with knowledge regarding contraceptives. Results for Binary Logistic Regression showed significant correlates of attitude with distance to the nearest health facility (OR=7.97, p<0.01), education (OR=0.24, p<0.05) and age group (0.03, p<0.01). Regarding practice, likelihood of being current user of contraceptives increased significantly by being literate (OR=5.97, p<0.01), having nuclear family (OR=4.96, p<0.01), living in less than 30 minute walk distance from nearest health facility (OR=3.34, p<0.05), women’s participation in decision making regarding household and fertility choices (OR=5.23, p<0.01) and husband’s support on using contraceptives (OR=9.05, p<0.01). Significant and positive correlation between knowledge-attitude, knowledge-practice and attitude-practice were observed. Conclusion: Results of the study indicates that there is need to increase awareness programs in order to intensify the knowledge and practices of contraception. The positive correlation indorses that better knowledge can lead to positive attitude and hence good practice. Further, projects aiming to increase better counselling about contraceptives, its side effects and the positive effects that outweighs the negative aspects should be enrolled appropriately.

Keywords: attitude, contraceptives, knowledge, practice

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Authors: Areti Angeliki Veroniki, Sofia Tsokani, Evangelos Paraskevaidis, Dimitris Mavridis

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The plethora of diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) studies has led to the increased use of systematic reviews and meta-analysis of DTA studies. Clinicians and healthcare professionals often consult DTA meta-analyses to make informed decisions regarding the optimum test to choose and use for a given setting. For example, the human papilloma virus (HPV) DNA, mRNA, and cytology can be used for the cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+) diagnosis. But which test is the most accurate? Studies directly comparing test accuracy are not always available, and comparisons between multiple tests create a network of DTA studies that can be synthesized through a network meta-analysis of diagnostic tests (DTA-NMA). The aim is to summarize the DTA-NMA methods for at least three index tests presented in the methodological literature. We illustrate the application of the methods using a real data set for the comparative accuracy of HPV DNA, HPV mRNA, and cytology tests for cervical cancer. A search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from inception until the end of July 2019 to identify full-text research articles that describe a DTA-NMA method for three or more index tests. Since the joint classification of the results from one index against the results of another index test amongst those with the target condition and amongst those without the target condition are rarely reported in DTA studies, only methods requiring the 2x2 tables of the results of each index test against the reference standard were included. Studies of any design published in English were eligible for inclusion. Relevant unpublished material was also included. Ten relevant studies were finally included to evaluate their methodology. DTA-NMA methods that have been presented in the literature together with their advantages and disadvantages are described. In addition, using 37 studies for cervical cancer obtained from a published Cochrane review as a case study, an application of the identified DTA-NMA methods to determine the most promising test (in terms of sensitivity and specificity) for use as the best screening test to detect CIN2+ is presented. As a conclusion, different approaches for the comparative DTA meta-analysis of multiple tests may conclude to different results and hence may influence decision-making. Acknowledgment: This research is co-financed by Greece and the European Union (European Social Fund- ESF) through the Operational Programme «Human Resources Development, Education and Lifelong Learning 2014-2020» in the context of the project “Extension of Network Meta-Analysis for the Comparison of Diagnostic Tests ” (MIS 5047640).

Keywords: colposcopy, diagnostic test, HPV, network meta-analysis

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Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule

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Authors: Aarti Agarwal, Ajmal Khan

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Background and Objective: Breathing difficulty is most distressing symptom for the patient and their caregivers providing palliative care to individuals with advanced malignancy. It needs to be tackled effectively and sometimes preemptively to provide relief from respiratory obstruction. Interventional procedures like tracheal stenting are becoming increasingly popular as a part of palliation for respiratory symptoms. We present a case of esophageal tumor earlier stented by Gastroenterologist to maintain esophageal patency, but the tumor outgrew to produce tracheal infiltration and thereby causing airway obstruction. Method and Result: 62-year-old man presented with unresectable Carcinoma oesophagus with inability to swallow. A metallic stent was placed by the gastroenterologist, to maintain esophageal patency and enable patient to swallow. Two months later, the patient returned to hospital in emergency with respiratory distress. CT neck and thorax revealed tumor infiltration through posterior tracheal wall. Lower extent of the tumor was till 1 cm above the carina. Airway stenting with Tracheo bronchial stent with Y configuration was planned under general anaesthesia with airway blocks. Superior Laryngeal Nerve Block, Glossopharyngeal block and Trans tracheal infiltration of local anaesthetics were performed. The patient was sedated with Fentanyl, Midazolam and propofol infusion but was breathing spontaneously. Once the rigid bronchoscope was placed inside trachea, breathing was supported with oxygen and sevoflurane. Initially, the trachea was cleared of tumor by coring. After creating space, tracheal stent was positioned and deployed. After stent placement patient was awakened, suctioned and nebulized. His respiratory stridor relieved instantaneously and was shifted to recovery. Conclusion: Airway blocks help in decreasing the incidence and severity of coughing during airway instrumentation thereby help in proper stent placement. They also reduce the requirement of general anaesthetics and hasten the post stenting recovery. Airway stent provided immediate relief to patient from symptoms of respiratory difficulty. Decision for early tracheal stenting may be taken for a select group of patients with high propensity for local spread, thereby avoiding respiratory complications and providing better quality of life in patients with inoperable malignancy.

Keywords: tracheal stent, respiratory difficulty, esophageal tumor, anaesthetic management

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Authors: S. Jamshidi, E. Feizi Ashtiani, M. Ardestani, A. Feizi Ashtiani

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Waste load allocation (WLA) strategies usually intend to find economical policies for water resource management. Water quality trading (WQT) is an approach that uses discharge permit market to reduce total environmental protection costs. This primarily requires assigning discharge limits known as total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). These are determined by monitoring organizations with respect to the receiving water quality and remediation capabilities. The purpose of this study is to compare two approaches of TMDL assignment for WQT policy in small catchment area of Haraz River, in north of Iran. At first, TMDLs are assigned uniformly for the whole point sources to keep the concentrations of BOD and dissolved oxygen (DO) at the standard level at checkpoint (terminus point). This was simply simulated and controlled by Qual2kw software. In the second scenario, TMDLs are assigned using multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) method in which the environmental violation at river basin and total treatment costs are minimized simultaneously. In both scenarios, the equity index and the WLA based on trading discharge permits (TDP) are calculated. The comparative results showed that using economically optimized TMDLs (2nd scenario) has slightly more cost savings rather than uniform TMDL approach (1st scenario). The former annually costs about 1 M$ while the latter is 1.15 M$. WQT can decrease these annual costs to 0.9 and 1.1 M$, respectively. In other word, these approaches may save 35 and 45% economically in comparison with command and control policy. It means that using multi objective decision support systems (DSS) may find more economical WLA, however its outcome is not necessarily significant in comparison with uniform TMDLs. This may be due to the similar impact factors of dischargers in small catchments. Conversely, using uniform TMDLs for WQT brings more equity that makes stakeholders not feel that much envious of difference between TMDL and WQT allocation. In addition, for this case, determination of TMDLs uniformly would be much easier for monitoring. Consequently, uniform TMDL for TDP market is recommended as a sustainable approach. However, economical TMDLs can be used for larger watersheds.

Keywords: waste load allocation (WLA), water quality trading (WQT), total maximum daily loads (TMDLs), Haraz River, multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), equity

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Authors: Doris Lacej, Eni Bushi

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Cleaning and disinfection procedures are essential for maintaining the cleanliness status of the pharmaceutical manufacturing environment particularly of the cleanrooms and sterile unit area. The Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) Annex 1 recommendation highly requires the implementation of the standard and validated cleaning and disinfection protocols. However, environmental monitoring has shown that even a validated cleaning method with certified agents may result in the presence of atypical microorganisms’ colony that exceeds GMP limits for a specific cleanroom area. In response to this issue, this case study aims to arrive at the root cause of the microbial contamination observed in the sterile production environment in Profarma pharmaceutical industry in Albania through applying a problem-solving practical approach that ensures the appropriate sterility grade. The guidelines and literature emphasize the importance of several factors in the prevention of possible microbial contamination occurring in cleanrooms, grade A and C. These factors are integrated into a practical framework, to identify the root cause of the presence of Aspergillus Niger colony in the sterile production environment in Profarma pharmaceutical industry in Albania. In addition, the application of a semi-automatic disinfecting system such as H2O2 FOG into sterile grade A and grade C cleanrooms has been an effective solution in eliminating the atypical colony of Aspergillus Niger. Selecting the appropriate detergents and disinfectants at the right concentration, frequency, and combination; the presence of updated and standardized guidelines for cleaning and disinfection as well as continuous training of operators on these practices in accordance with the updated GMP guidelines are some of the identified factors that influence the success of achieving sterility grade. However, to ensure environmental sustainability it is important to be prepared for identifying the source of contamination and making the appropriate decision. The proposed case-based practical approach may help pharmaceutical companies to achieve sterile production and cleanliness environmental sustainability in challenging situations. Apart from the integration of valid agents and standardized cleaning and disinfection protocols according to GMP Annex 1, pharmaceutical companies must be careful and investigate the source and all the steps that can influence the results of an abnormal situation. Subsequently apart from identifying the root cause it is important to solve the problem with a successful alternative approach.

Keywords: cleanrooms, disinfectants, environmental monitoring, GMP Annex 1

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Authors: Mohammad Ghahramani, Fahimeh Saei Manesh

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Winning a soccer game is based on thorough and deep analysis of the ongoing match. On the other hand, giant gambling companies are in vital need of such analysis to reduce their loss against their customers. In this research work, we perform deep, real-time analysis on every soccer match around the world that distinguishes our work from others by focusing on particular seasons, teams and partial analytics. Our contributions are presented in the platform called “Analyst Masters.” First, we introduce various sources of information available for soccer analysis for teams around the world that helped us record live statistical data and information from more than 50,000 soccer matches a year. Our second and main contribution is to introduce our proposed in-play performance evaluation. The third contribution is developing new features from stable soccer matches. The statistics of soccer matches and their odds before and in-play are considered in the image format versus time including the halftime. Local Binary patterns, (LBP) is then employed to extract features from the image. Our analyses reveal incredibly interesting features and rules if a soccer match has reached enough stability. For example, our “8-minute rule” implies if 'Team A' scores a goal and can maintain the result for at least 8 minutes then the match would end in their favor in a stable match. We could also make accurate predictions before the match of scoring less/more than 2.5 goals. We benefit from the Gradient Boosting Trees, GBT, to extract highly related features. Once the features are selected from this pool of data, the Decision trees decide if the match is stable. A stable match is then passed to a post-processing stage to check its properties such as betters’ and punters’ behavior and its statistical data to issue the prediction. The proposed method was trained using 140,000 soccer matches and tested on more than 100,000 samples achieving 98% accuracy to select stable matches. Our database from 240,000 matches shows that one can get over 20% betting profit per month using Analyst Masters. Such consistent profit outperforms human experts and shows the inefficiency of the betting market. Top soccer tipsters achieve 50% accuracy and 8% monthly profit in average only on regional matches. Both our collected database of more than 240,000 soccer matches from 2012 and our algorithm would greatly benefit coaches and punters to get accurate analysis.

Keywords: soccer, analytics, machine learning, database

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Authors: H. Arzani, Z. Arzani

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Every piece of rangeland has a different set of physical and biological characteristics. This requires the manager to synthesis various information for regular monitoring to define changes trend to get wright decision for sustainable management. So range managers need to use computerized technologies to monitor rangeland, and select. The best management practices. There are four examples of computerized technologies that can benefit sustainable management: (1) Photographic method for cover measurement: The method was tested in different vegetation communities in semi humid and arid regions. Interpretation of pictures of quadrats was done using Arc View software. Data analysis was done by SPSS software using paired t test. Based on the results, generally, photographic method can be used to measure ground cover in most vegetation communities. (2) GPS application for corresponding ground samples and satellite pixels: In two provinces of Tehran and Markazi, six reference points were selected and in each point, eight GPS models were tested. Significant relation among GPS model, time and location with accuracy of estimated coordinates was found. After selection of suitable method, in Markazi province coordinates of plots along four transects in each 6 sites of rangelands was recorded. The best time of GPS application was in the morning hours, Etrex Vista had less error than other models, and a significant relation among GPS model, time and location with accuracy of estimated coordinates was found. (3) Application of satellite data for rangeland monitoring: Focusing on the long term variation of vegetation parameters such as vegetation cover and production is essential. Our study in grass and shrub lands showed that there were significant correlations between quantitative vegetation characteristics and satellite data. So it is possible to monitor rangeland vegetation using digital data for sustainable utilization. (4) Rangeland suitability classification with GIS: Range suitability assessment can facilitate sustainable management planning. Three sub-models of sensitivity to erosion, water suitability and forage production out puts were entered to final range suitability classification model. GIS was facilitate classification of range suitability and produced suitability maps for sheep grazing. Generally digital computers assist range managers to interpret, modify, calibrate or integrating information for correct management.

Keywords: computer, GPS, GIS, remote sensing, photographic method, monitoring, rangeland ecosystem, management, suitability, sheep grazing

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Authors: Xiaoyuan Chen

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Background: This study aimed to characterize the epidemiological and clinical features of five rare subtypes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to create a competing risk nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival. Methods: This study used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to analyze the clinicopathological data of 50,218 patients with classic HCC and five rare subtypes (ICD-O-3 Histology Code=8170/3-8175/3) between 2004 and 2018. The annual percent change (APC) was calculated using Joinpoint regression, and a nomogram was developed based on multivariable competing risk survival analyses. The prognostic performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, C-index, calibration curve, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Decision curve analysis was used to assess the clinical value of the models. Results: The incidence of scirrhous carcinoma showed a decreasing trend (APC=-6.8%, P=0.025), while the morbidity of other rare subtypes remained stable from 2004 to 2018. The incidence-based mortality plateau in all subtypes during the period. Clear cell carcinoma was the most common subtype (n=551, 1.1%), followed by fibrolamellar (n=241, 0.5%), scirrhous (n=82, 0.2%), spindle cell (n=61, 0.1%), and pleomorphic (n=17, ~0%) carcinomas. Patients with fibrolamellar carcinoma were younger and more likely to have non-cirrhotic liver and better prognoses. Scirrhous carcinoma shared almost the same macro clinical characteristics and outcomes as classic HCC. Clear cell carcinoma tended to occur in the Asia-Pacific elderly male population, and more than half of them were large HCC (Size>5cm). Sarcomatoid (including spindle cell and pleomorphic) carcinoma was associated with larger tumor size, poorer differentiation, and more dismal prognoses. The pathological subtype, T stage, M stage, surgery, alpha-fetoprotein, and cancer history were identified as independent predictors in patients with rare subtypes. The nomogram showed good calibration, discrimination, and net benefits in clinical practice. Conclusion: The rare subtypes of HCC had distinct clinicopathological features and biological behaviors compared with classic HCC. Our findings could provide a valuable reference for clinicians. The constructed nomogram could accurately predict prognoses, which is beneficial for individualized management.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, pathological subtype, fibrolamellar carcinoma, scirrhous carcinoma, clear cell carcinoma, spindle cell carcinoma, pleomorphic carcinoma

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Authors: Corina E. Niculaescu, Ivan Sangiorgi, Adrian R. Bell

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been life-changing in many aspects of people’s daily and social lives, but has it also changed attitudes towards investments? This paper explores the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on retail investors’ levels of investments in the U.S. during the first COVID-19 wave in summer 2020. This is an unprecedented health crisis, which could lead to changes in investment behavior, including irrational behavior in retail investors. As such, this study aims to inform policymakers of what happened to investment decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic so that they can protect retail investors during extreme events like a global health crisis. The study aims to answer two research questions. First, was the level of investments affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and if so, why? Second, how were investments affected by retail investors’ personal experience with COVID-19? The research analysis is based on primary survey data collected on the Amazon Mechanical Turk platform from a representative sample of U.S. respondents. Responses were collected between the 15th of July and 28th of August 2020 from 1,148 U.S. retail investors who hold mutual fund investments and a savings account. The research explores whether being affected by COVID-19, change in the level of savings, and risk capacity can explain the change in the level of investments by using regression analysis. The dependent variable is changed in investments measured as decrease, no change, and increase. For this reason, the methodology used is ordered probit regression models. The results show that retail investors in the U.S. increased their investments during the first wave of COVID-19, which is unexpected as investors are usually more cautious in crisis times. Moreover, the study finds that those who were affected personally by COVID-19 (e.g., tested positive) were more likely to increase their investments, which is irrational behavior and contradicts expectations. An increase in the level of savings and risk capacity was also associated with increased investments. Overall, the findings show that having personal experience with a health crisis can have an impact on one’s investment decisions as well. Those findings are important for both retail investors and policymakers, especially now that online trading platforms have made trading easily accessible to everyone. There are risks and potential irrational behaviors associated with investment decisions during times of crisis, and it is important that retail investors are aware of them before making financial decisions.

Keywords: COVID-19, financial decision-making, health crisis retail investors, survey

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Authors: Frezer Okubay Weldegebriel

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The tourism sector in Ethiopia plays a significant role in the national economy. The government is granting its pledge and readiness to develop this sector through various initiatives since to eradicate poverty and encourage economic development of the country is one of the Millennium Development plans. The tourism sector has been identified as one of the priority economic sectors by many countries, and the Government of Ethiopia has planned to make Ethiopia among the top five African destinations by 2020. Nevertheless, the international tourism demand for Ethiopia currently lags behind other African countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Tanzania, and Kenya. Meanwhile, the number of international tourists’ arrival in Ethiopia is recently increasing even if it cannot be competitive with other African countries. Therefore, to offer demand-driven tourism products, the Ethiopian government, Tourism planners, Tour & Travel operators need to understand the important factors, which affect international tourists’ decision to visit Ethiopian destinations. This study was intended to analyze Italian Tourists Demand towards Ethiopian destination. The researcher aimed to identify the demand for Italian tourists’ preference to Ethiopian destinations comparing to the top East African countries. This study uses both qualitative and quantitative research methodology, and the data is manipulating through primary data collection method using questionnaires, interviews, and secondary data by reviewing books, journals, magazines, past researches, and websites. An active and potential Italian tourist cohort, five well-functioning tour operators based in Ethiopia for Italian tourists and professionals from Ethiopian Ministry of Tourism and Culture participated. Based on the analysis of the data collected through the questionnaire, interviews, and reviews of different materials, the study disclosed that the majority of Italian tourists have a high demand on Ethiopian Tourist destination. Historical and cultural interest, safety and security, the hospitality of the people and affordable accommodation coast are the main reason for them. However, some Italian tourists prefer to visit Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda due to the fact that they are fascinated by adventure, safari and beaches, while Ethiopia cannot provide these attractions. Most Italian tourists have little information and practical experiences on Ethiopian tourism possibilities via a tour and travel companies. Moreover, the insufficient marketing campaign and promotion by Ethiopian Government and Ministry of Tourism could also contribute to the failure of Ethiopian tourism.

Keywords: The demand of Italian tourists, Ethiopia economy, Ethiopia tourism destination, promoting Ethiopia tourism

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Construction projects are complex and often subject to significant cost overruns due to the multifaceted nature of the activities involved. Accurate cost estimation is crucial for effective budget planning and resource allocation. Traditional methods for predicting overruns often rely on expert judgment or analysis of historical data, which can be time-consuming, subjective, and may fail to consider important factors. However, with the increasing availability of data from construction projects, machine learning techniques can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of overrun predictions. This study applied machine learning algorithms to enhance the prediction of cost overruns in a case study of a construction project. The methodology involved the development and evaluation of two machine learning models: Random Forest and Neural Networks. Random Forest can handle high-dimensional data, capture complex relationships, and provide feature importance estimates. Neural Networks, particularly Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are capable of automatically learning and modeling complex, non-linear relationships between input features and the target variable. These models can adapt to new data, reduce human bias, and uncover hidden patterns in the dataset. The findings of this study demonstrate that both Random Forest and Neural Networks can significantly improve the accuracy of cost overrun predictions compared to traditional methods. The Random Forest model also identified key cost drivers and risk factors, such as changes in the scope of work and delays in material delivery, which can inform better project risk management. However, the study acknowledges several limitations. First, the findings are based on a single construction project, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other projects or contexts. Second, the dataset, although comprehensive, may not capture all relevant factors influencing cost overruns, such as external economic conditions or political factors. Third, the study focuses primarily on cost overruns, while schedule overruns are not explicitly addressed. Future research should explore the application of machine learning techniques to a broader range of projects, incorporate additional data sources, and investigate the prediction of both cost and schedule overruns simultaneously.

Keywords: resource allocation, machine learning, optimization, data-driven decision-making, project management

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Authors: Dounyazad Sour

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This research examines international doctoral students’ reflections on their journey and experiences of studying for a PhD in the UK. Since the early 1990s, the international students’ number in the UK has increased. The significant contribution of these international students to the cultural and academic diversity of the UK universities’ doctoral programmes is widely acknowledged. The substantial fees these students bring to British Higher Education institutions is also much appreciated. The rationale for undertaking this study grew from personal experience of studying in the UK. Through membership in different groups both online and, when regulations permitted it, face to face social groups, it quickly became apparent that among all students, there were both shared and individual experiences of struggles and triumphs. This insight led to the decision to investigate these matters in greater detail. This in-depth qualitative interpretative study, inspired by a phenomenological approach, offers fresh insights into academic, social and cultural experiences of international PhD students in the UK. Data collection was carried out in the UK over a period of three months, deploying focus groups, individual semi-structured interviews, and images selected by participants that represent their feelings towards their experiences. The ten participants are attending different UK universities, studying a range of disciplines and have diverse backgrounds. Interviews and discussions took place in the participants' preferred languages; Arabic, English and French. The analysis shows that the participants had experienced two types of shock: negative and positive. Negative shocks, which have seen considerable attention in the field of international students’ experiences, relate to unexpected incidents that happened to the participants in relation to their interactions with others: people from different backgrounds and people from the same background. This impacted their experience negatively through experiencing feelings of anxiety, stress, low self-esteem and xenophobia, all these hindering factors contribute to make international students struggle to adapt to the new environment. Positive shocks, which have remained largely under-researched in the field of international students’ experiences, refer to all the positive occurrences that participants experienced. For instance, a shop assistant saying: “do you need any help, honey?” which brought a sense of belonging, feeling home, safety, and satisfaction to the respondents, and made their experiences less challenging. This investigation will offer insights into the PhD international students’ experiences and shed new light on the shocks that can work as facilitators, rather than as inhibitors.

Keywords: international students, PhD journey, phenomenological approach, positive shock

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Authors: Teemu Saressalo

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This article examines the evolution of the Israel Defence Forces’ information operation activities during an eight-year timespan from the 2006 war with Hezbollah to more recent operations such as Pillar of Defence and Protective Edge. To this end, the case study will show a change in the Israel Defence Forces’ activities in the information domain. In the 2006 war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel inflicted enormous damage on the Lebanese infrastructure, leaving more than 1,200 people dead and 4,400 injured. Casualties among Hezbollah, Israel’s main adversary, were estimated to range from 250 to 700 fighters. Damage to the Lebanese infrastructure was estimated at over USD 2.5bn, with almost 2,000 houses and buildings damaged and destroyed. Even this amount of destruction did not force Hezbollah to yield and while both sides were claiming victory in the war, Israel paid a heavier price in political backlashes and loss of reputation, mainly due to failures in the media and the way in which the war was portrayed and perceived in Israel and abroad. Much of this can be credited to Hezbollah’s efficient use of the media, and Israel’s failure to do so. Israel managed the next conflict it was engaged in completely differently – it had learnt its lessons and built up new ways to counter its adversary’s propaganda and media operations. In Operation Cast Lead at the turn of 2009, Hamas, Israel’s adversary and Gaza’s dominating faction, was not able to utilize the media in the same way that Hezbollah had. By creating a virtual and physical barrier around the Gaza Strip, Israel almost totally denied its adversary access to the worldwide media, and by restricting the movement of journalists in the area, Israel could let its voice be heard above all. The operation Cast Lead began with a deception operation, which caught Hamas totally off guard. The 21-day campaign left the Gaza Strip devastated, but did not cause as much protest in Israel during the operation as the 2006 war did, mainly due to almost total Israeli dominance in the information dimension. The most important outcome from the Israeli perspective was the fact that Operation Cast Lead was assessed to be a success and the operation enjoyed domestic support along with support from many western nations, which had condemned Israeli actions in the 2006 war. Later conflicts have shown the same tendency towards virtually total dominance in the information domain, which has had an impact on target audiences across the world. Thus, it is clear that well-planned and conducted information operations are able to shape public opinion and influence decision-makers, although Israel might have been outpaced by its rivals.

Keywords: Hamas, Hezbollah, information operations, Israel Defence Forces

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Authors: Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Ángeles Godoy-Durán, Juan C. Pérez-Mesa, Laura Piedra-Muñoz

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Eco-efficiency is receiving ever-increasing interest as an indicator of sustainability, as it links environmental and economic performances in productive activities. In agriculture, these indicators and their determinants prove relevant due to the close relationships in this activity between the use of natural resources, which is generally limited, and the provision of basic goods to society. In this context, various analyses have focused on eco-efficiency by considering individual family farms as the basic production unit. However, not only must the measure of efficiency be taken into account, but also the existence of a series of factors which constitute socio-economic, political-institutional, and environmental determinants. Said factors have been studied to a lesser extent in the literature. The present work analyzes eco-efficiency at a micro level, focusing on small-scale family farms as the main decision-making units in horticulture in southeast Spain, a sector which represents about 30% of the fresh vegetables produced in the country and about 20% of those consumed in Europe. The objectives of this study are a) to obtain a series of eco-efficiency indicators by estimating several pressure ratios and economic value added in farming, b) to analyze the influence of specific social, economic and environmental variables on the aforementioned eco-efficiency indicators. The present work applies the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which calculates different combinations of environmental pressures (water usage, phytosanitary contamination, waste management, etc.) and aggregate economic value. In a second stage, an analysis is conducted on the influence of the socio-economic and environmental characteristics of family farms on the eco-efficiency indicators, as endogeneous variables, through the use of truncated regression and bootstrapping techniques, following Simar-Wilson methodology. The results reveal considerable inefficiency in aspects such as waste management, while there is relatively little inefficiency in water usage and nitrogen balance. On the other hand, characteristics, such as product specialization, the adoption of quality certifications and belonging to a cooperative do have a positive impact on eco-efficiency. These results are deemed to be of interest to agri-food systems structured on small-scale producers, and they may prove useful to policy-makers as regards managing public environmental programs in agriculture.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, eco-efficiency, family farms, horticulture, socioeconomic features

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Authors: Shujon Mohammed Alazzam, Sarah Saad Alamer, Omar Hassan Kasule, Lama Suliman Aleid, Mohammad Abdulaziz Alakeel, Boshra Mosleh Alanazi, Abdullah Abdulelah Altowairqi, Yahya Ali Al-Asiri

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Background: Interventional radiology (IR) is a specialized field within radiology that diagnose and treat several conditions through a minimally invasive surgical procedure that involves the use of various radiological techniques. In the last few years, the role of IR has expanded to include a variety of organ systems which have been led to an increase in demand for these Specialties. The level of knowledge regarding IR is relatively low in general. In this study, we aimed to investigate the perceptions of interventional radiology (IR) as a specialty among medical students and medical interns in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Methodology: This study was a cross section. The target population is medical students in January 2023 in Riyadh city, KSA. We used the questionnaire for face-to-face interviews with voluntary participants to assess their knowledge of Interventional radiology. Permission was taken from participants to use their information. Assuring them that the data in this study was used only for scientific purposes. Results: According to the inclusion criteria, a total of 314 students participated in the study. (49%) of the participants were in the preclinical years, and (51%) were in the clinical years. The findings indicate more than half of the students think that they had good information about IR (58%), while (42%) reported that they had poor information and knowledge about IR. Only (28%) of students were planning to take an elective and radiology rotation, (and 27%) said they would consider a career in IR. (73%) of the participants who would not consider a career in IR, the highest reasons in order were due to "I do not find it interesting" (45%), then "Radiation exposure" (14%). Around half (48%) thought that an IRs must complete a residency training program in both radiology and surgery, and just (36%) of the students believe that an IRs must finish training in radiology. Our data show the procedures performed by IRs that (66%) lower limb angioplasty and stenting (58%) Cardiac angioplasty or stenting. (68%) of the students were familiar with angioplasty. When asked about the source of exposure to angioplasty, the majority (46%) were from a cardiologist, (and 16%) were from the interventional radiologist. Regarding IR career prospects, (78%) of the students believe that IRs have good career prospects. In conclusion, our findings reveal that the perception and exposure to IR among medical students and interns are generally poor. This has a direct influence on the student's decision regarding IR as a career path. Recommendations to attract medical students and promote IR as a career should be increased knowledge among medical students and future physicians through early exposure to IR, and this will promote the specialty's growth; also, involvement of the Saudi Interventional Radiology Society and Radiological Society of Saudi Arabia is essential.

Keywords: knowledge, medical students, perceptions, radiology, interventional radiology, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Tanapond S.

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Typically, most of the controlling firms are relate to family firms which are widespread and important for economic growth particularly in Asian Pacific region. The unique characteristics of the controlling families tend to play an important role in determining the corporate policies such as dividend policy. Given the complexity of the family business phenomenon, the empirical evidence has been unclear on how the families behind business groups influence dividend policy in Asian markets with the prevalent existence of cross-shareholdings and pyramidal structure. Dividend policy as one of an important determinant of firm value could also be implemented in order to examine the effect of the controlling families behind business groups on strategic decisions-making in terms of a governance perspective and agency problems. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of ownership structure and concentration which are influential internal corporate governance mechanisms in family firms on dividend decision-making. Using panel data and constructing a unique dataset of family ownership and control through hand-collecting information from the nonfinancial companies listed in Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) between 2000 and 2015, the study finds that family firms with large stakes distribute higher dividends than family firms with small stakes. Family ownership can mitigate the agency problems and the expropriation of minority investors in family firms. To provide insight into the distinguish between ownership rights and control rights, this study examines specific firm characteristics including the degrees of concentration of controlling shareholders by classifying family ownership in different categories. The results show that controlling families with large deviation between voting rights and cash flow rights have more power and affect lower dividend payment. These situations become worse when second blockholders are families. To the best knowledge of the researcher, this study is the first to examine the association between family firms’ characteristics and dividend policy from the corporate governance perspectives in Thailand with weak investor protection environment and high ownership concentration. This research also underscores the importance of family control especially in a context in which family business groups and pyramidal structure are prevalent. As a result, academics and policy makers can develop markets and corporate policies to eliminate agency problem.

Keywords: agency theory, dividend policy, family control, Thailand

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Authors: Friday I. Joseph

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Background: Nigeria has an under-five mortality rate that is 128 per 1000 live birth which is higher than the rate for the African region. Optimal breastfeeding practice has the potential to reduce under-five mortality by 13% in developing countries. However, documented exclusive breastfeeding rate in Nigeria from birth to six months is just 17%. Aim: To explore perceptions of the sociocultural factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding for six months among rural mothers in Bindawa and Baure Local Government Area (LGA), Katsina state, North West Nigeria, to inform policies, intervention or strategies to improve exclusive breastfeeding practice in Nigeria. Methods: The social constructionism-interpretivist epistemological approach informed the use of an exploratory study to understand mothers’ experiences and views. Twenty mothers, all from rural areas between 19-35 years old were conveniently sampled from two LGA in Katsina state, north –west Nigeria for semi-structured interviews. Sample size had representation of both Hausa and Fulani ethnic group. Thematic content analysis was utilized for analysis. Results: Three major themes emerged from the study: (1) Breastfeeding initiation - Immediate traditional newborn care practices, birth attendant, place of delivery, the perception of about colostrum determines how soon a mother initiate breastfeeding. (2) Exclusive breastfeeding and introduction of food-Motivation to sustain exclusive breastfeeding relies on the interplay between the obligation to perform traditional rites; mother’s awareness and family support. (3) Decision making about infant feeding – It is not independent of the influence of key social figures like the father, mother-in-law, traditional birth attendant and the health workers. Overall, in spite of awareness of exclusive breastfeeding benefits, mothers expressed concerns that they may not win their family support if they shared contrary views. Conclusions: Health promotion intervention should be tailored, taking cognizant and addressing the sociocultural barriers to the practice of optimal breastfeeding by a focused community and family-based participatory approach. Implementers of interventions should employ culture-sensitive approaches in community-based intervention.

Keywords: exclusive breastfeeding, perception, qualitative, sociocultural determinants

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Authors: Mirka Januszkiewicz

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The Regional Municipality of Durham is the upper level of a two-tier municipal and regional structure comprised of eight lower-tier municipalities. With a population of 655,000 in both urban and rural settings, the Region is approximately 2,537 square kilometers neighboring the City of Toronto, Ontario Canada to the east. The Region has been focused on diverting waste from disposal since the development of its Long Term Waste Management Strategy Plan for 2000-2020. With a 54 percent solid waste diversion rate, the focus now is on achieving 70 percent diversion on the path to zero waste using local waste management options whenever feasible. The Region has an Integrated Waste Management System that consists of a weekly curbside collection of recyclable printed paper and packaging and source separated organics; a seasonal collection of leaf and yard waste; a bi-weekly collection of residual garbage; and twice annual collection of intact, sealed household batteries. The Region also maintains three Waste Management Facilities for residential drop-off of household hazardous waste, polystyrene, construction and demolition debris and electronics. Special collection events are scheduled in the spring, summer and fall months for reusable items, household hazardous waste, and electronics. The Region is in the final commissioning stages of an energy from the waste facility for residual waste disposal that will recover energy from non-recyclable wastes. This facility is state of the art and is equipped for installation of carbon capture technology in the future. Despite all of these diversion programs and efforts, there is still room for improvement. Recent residential waste studies revealed that over 50% of the residual waste placed at the curb that is destined for incineration could be recycled. To move towards a zero waste community, the Region is looking to more advanced technologies for extracting the maximum recycling value from residential waste. Plans are underway to develop a pre-sort facility to remove organics and recyclables from the residual waste stream, including the growing multi-residential sector. Organics would then be treated anaerobically to generate biogas and fertilizer products for beneficial use within the Region. This project could increase the Region’s diversion rate beyond 70 percent and enhance the Region’s climate change mitigation goals. Zero waste is an ambitious goal in a changing regulatory and economic environment. Decision makers must be willing to consider new and emerging technologies and embrace change to succeed.

Keywords: municipal waste, residential, waste diversion, zero waste

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Authors: Agnieszka Zalejska-Jonsson

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The Swedish Green Building Council (SGBC) was established in 2009. Since then, over 1000 buildings have been certified, of which approximately 600 are newly produced and 340 are residential buildings. During that time, approximately 2000 apartment buildings have been built in Sweden. This means that over a five- year period 17% of residential buildings have been certified according to the environmental building scheme. The certification of the building is not a guarantee of environmental progress but it gives us an indication of the extent of the progress. The overarching aim of this study is to investigate the factors behind the relatively slow evolution of the green residential housing market in Sweden. The intention is to examine stated willingness to pay (WTP) for green and low energy apartments, and to explore which factors have a significant effect on stated WTP among apartment owners. A green building was defined as a building certified according to the environmental scheme and a low energy building as a building designed and constructed with high energy efficiency goals. Data for this study were collected through a survey conducted among occupants of comparable apartment buildings: two green and one conventional. The total number of received responses was 429: green A (N=160), response rate 42%; green B (N=138) response rate 35%, and conventional (N=131) response rate 43%. The study applied a quasi-experimental method. Survey responses regarding factors affecting purchase of apartment, stated WTP and environmental literacy have been analysed using descriptive statistics, the Mann–Whitney (rank sum) test and logistic models. Comments received from respondents have been used for further interpretation of results. Results indicate that environmental education has a significant effect on stated WTP. Occupants who declared higher WTP showed a higher level of environmental literacy and indicated that energy efficiency was one of the important factors that affected their decision to buy an apartment. Generally, the respondents were more likely to pay more for low energy buildings than for green buildings. This is to a great extent a consequence of rational customer behaviour and difficulty in apprehending the meaning of green building certification. The analysis shows that people living in green buildings indicate higher WTP for both green and low energy buildings, the difference being statistically significant. It is concluded that growth in the green housing market in Sweden might be achieved if policymakers and developers engage in active education in the environmental labelling system. The demand for green buildings is more likely to increase when the difference between green and conventional buildings is easily understood and information is not only delivered by the estate agent, but is part of an environmental education programme.

Keywords: consumer, environmental education, housing market, stated WTP, Sweden

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Authors: V. A. Dubovsky, V. V. Savchenko, A. A. Baryskevich

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The current trend in the automotive industry towards automatic vehicles is creating new challenges related to human factors. This occurs due to the fact that the driver is increasingly relieved of the need to be constantly involved in driving the vehicle, which can negatively impact his/her situation awareness when manual control is required, and decrease driving skills and abilities. These new problems need to be studied in order to provide road safety during the transition towards self-driving vehicles. For this purpose, it is important to develop an appropriate conceptual model of the interaction between the driver and the automated vehicle, which could serve as a theoretical basis for the development of mathematical and simulation models to explore different aspects of driver behaviour in different road situations. Well-known driver behaviour models describe the impact of different stages of the driver's cognitive process on driving performance but do not describe how the driver controls and adjusts his actions. A more complete description of the driver's cognitive process, including the evaluation of the results of his/her actions, will make it possible to more accurately model various aspects of the human factor in different road situations. This paper presents a conceptual model of the 'driver – highly automated vehicle' system based on the P.K. Anokhin's theory of functional systems, which is a theoretical framework for describing internal processes in purposeful living systems based on such notions as goal, desired and actual results of the purposeful activity. A central feature of the proposed model is a dynamic coupling mechanism between the decision-making of a driver to perform a particular action and changes of road conditions due to driver’s actions. This mechanism is based on the stage by stage evaluation of the deviations of the actual values of the driver’s action results parameters from the expected values. The overall functional structure of the highly automated vehicle in the proposed model includes a driver/vehicle/environment state analyzer to coordinate the interaction between driver and vehicle. The proposed conceptual model can be used as a framework to investigate different aspects of human factors in transitions between automated and manual driving for future improvements in driving safety, and for understanding how driver-vehicle interface must be designed for comfort and safety. A major finding of this study is the demonstration that the theory of functional systems is promising and has the potential to describe the interaction of the driver with the vehicle and the environment.

Keywords: automated vehicle, driver behavior, human factors, human-machine system

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Authors: Tzu-Ting Hu, Jung-Der Wang, Ming-Yeng Lin, Jin-Luh Chen, Perng-Jy Tsai

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The vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) has been classified as group 1 (human) carcinogen by the IARC. Workers exposed to VCM are known associated with the development of the liver cancer and hence might cause economical and health losses. Particularly, for those work for the petrochemical industry have been seriously concerned in the environmental and occupational health field. Considering assessing workers’ health risks and their resultant economical and health losses requires the establishment of long-term VCM exposure data for any similar exposure group (SEG) of interest, the development of suitable technologies has become an urgent and important issue. In the present study, VCM exposures for petrochemical industry workers were determined firstly based on the database of the 'Workplace Environmental Monitoring Information Systems (WEMIS)' provided by Taiwan OSHA. Considering the existence of miss data, the reconstruction of historical exposure techniques were then used for completing the long-term exposure data for SEGs with routine operations. For SEGs with non-routine operations, exposure modeling techniques, together with their time/activity records, were adopted for determining their long-term exposure concentrations. The Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) was adopted for conducting exposure and health risk assessments for any given SEG in the petrochemical industry. The resultant excessive cancer risk was then used to determine the corresponding loss of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). Results show that low average concentrations can be found for SEGs with routine operations (e.g., VCM rectification 0.0973 ppm, polymerization 0.306 ppm, reaction tank 0.33 ppm, VCM recovery 1.4 ppm, control room 0.14 ppm, VCM storage tanks 0.095 ppm and wastewater treatment 0.390 ppm), and the above values were much lower than that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 3 ppm) of VCM promulgated in Taiwan. For non-routine workers, though their high exposure concentrations, their low exposure time and frequencies result in low corresponding health risks. Through the consideration of exposure assessment results, health risk assessment results, and QALE results simultaneously, it is concluded that the proposed method was useful for prioritizing SEGs for conducting exposure abatement measurements. Particularly, the obtained QALE results further indicate the importance of reducing workers’ VCM exposures, though their exposures were low as in comparison with the PEL and the acceptable health risk.

Keywords: exposure assessment, health risk assessment, petrochemical industry, quality-adjusted life years, vinyl chloride monomer

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Authors: Orit Shamir Balderman, Shamir Michal

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Israel often deals with crisis situations, but most have been characterized as security crises (e.g., war). This is the first time that the Israel has dealt with a health and social emergency as part of a global crisis. The crisis began in January 2020 with the emergence of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19), which was defined as a pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020) and arrived in Israel in early March 2020. This study examined how single mothers by choice (SMBC) experience state anxiety (SA), social support, work–family conflict (WFC), and happiness. This group has not been studied in the context of crises in general or a global crisis. Using a snowball sample, 386 SMBCanswered an online questionnaire. The findings show a negative relationship between income and level of state anxiety. State anxiety was also negatively associated with social support, level of happiness, and WFC. Finally, a stepwise regression analysis indicated that happiness explained 34% of the variance in SA. We also found that most of the women did not turn to formal support agencies such as social workers, other Government Ministries, or municipal welfare. A positive and strong correlations was also found between SA and WFC. The findings of the study reinforce the understanding that although these women made a conscious and informed decision regarding the choice of their family cell, their situation is more complex in the absence of a spouse support. Therefore, this study, as other future studies in the field of SMBC, may contribute to the improvement of their social status and the understanding that they are a unique group. Although SMBC are a growing sector of society in the past few years, there are still special needs and special attention that is needed from the formal and informal supports systems. A comparative study of these two groups and in different countries would shed light on SA among mothers in general, regardless of their relationship status and location.Researchers should expand this study by comparing mothers in relationships and exploring how SMBC coped in other countries. In summary, the findings of the study contribute knowledge on three levels: (a) knowledge about SMBC in general and during crisis situations; (b) examination of social support using tools assessing receipt of assistance and support, some of which were developed for the present study; and (c) insights regarding counseling, accompaniment, and guidance of welfare mechanisms.

Keywords: single mothers by choice, state anxiety, social support, happiness, work–family conflict

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Authors: Jae Hyun Park, Sangmi Chai, Minkyun Kim

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As users spend more time on the Internet, the probability of their personal information being exposed has been growing. This research has a main purpose of investigating factors and examining relationships when Internet users recognize their value of private information with a perspective of an economic asset. The study is targeted on Internet users, and the value of their private information will be converted into economic figures. Moreover, how economic value changes in relation with individual attributes, dealer’s traits, circumstantial properties will be studied. In this research, the changes in factors on private information value responding to different situations will be analyzed in an economic perspective. Additionally, this study examines the associations between users’ perceived risk and value of their personal information. By using the cost-benefit analysis framework, the hypothesis that the user’s sense in private information value can be influenced by individual attributes and situational properties will be tested. Therefore, this research will attempt to provide answers for three research objectives. First, this research will identify factors that affect value recognition of users’ personal information. Second, it provides evidences that there are differences on information system users’ economic value of information responding to personal, trade opponent, and situational attributes. Third, it investigates the impact of those attributes on individuals’ perceived risk. Based on the assumption that personal, trade opponent and situation attributes make an impact on the users’ value recognition on private information, this research will present the understandings on the different impacts of those attributes in recognizing the value of information with the economic perspective and prove the associative relationships between perceived risk and decision on the value of users’ personal information. In order to validate our research model, this research used the regression methodology. Our research results support that information breach experience and information security systems is associated with users’ perceived risk. Information control and uncertainty are also related to users’ perceived risk. Therefore, users’ perceived risk is considered as a significant factor on evaluating the value of personal information. It can be differentiated by trade opponent and situational attributes. This research presents new perspective on evaluating the value of users’ personal information in the context of perceived risk, personal, trade opponent and situational attributes. It fills the gap in the literature by providing how users’ perceived risk are associated with personal, trade opponent and situation attitudes in conducting business transactions with providing personal information. It adds to previous literature that the relationship exists between perceived risk and the value of users’ private information in the economic perspective. It also provides meaningful insights to the managers that in order to minimize the cost of information breach, managers need to recognize the value of individuals’ personal information and decide the proper amount of investments on protecting users’ online information privacy.

Keywords: private information, value, users, perceived risk, online information privacy, attributes

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Authors: Eugene Y. J. Aw, J. W. Koh, S. H. Chew, K. E. Chua, Lionel L. J. Ang, Algernon C. S. Hong, Danette S. E. Tan, Grace H. B. Foo, K. Q. Hong, L. M. Cheng, M. L. Leong

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This paper presents a novel rapid soil classification technique that combines computer vision with four-probe soil electrical resistivity method and cone penetration test (CPT), to improve the accuracy and productivity of on-site classification of excavated soil. In Singapore, excavated soils from local construction projects are transported to Staging Grounds (SGs) to be reused as fill material for land reclamation. Excavated soils are mainly categorized into two groups (“Good Earth” and “Soft Clay”) based on particle size distribution (PSD) and water content (w) from soil investigation reports and on-site visual survey, such that proper treatment and usage can be exercised. However, this process is time-consuming and labour-intensive. Thus, a rapid classification method is needed at the SGs. Computer vision, four-probe soil electrical resistivity and CPT were combined into an innovative non-destructive and instantaneous classification method for this purpose. The computer vision technique comprises soil image acquisition using industrial grade camera; image processing and analysis via calculation of Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) textural parameters; and decision-making using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Complementing the computer vision technique, the apparent electrical resistivity of soil (ρ) is measured using a set of four probes arranged in Wenner’s array. It was found from the previous study that the ANN model coupled with ρ can classify soils into “Good Earth” and “Soft Clay” in less than a minute, with an accuracy of 85% based on selected representative soil images. To further improve the technique, the soil strength is measured using a modified mini cone penetrometer, and w is measured using a set of time-domain reflectometry (TDR) probes. Laboratory proof-of-concept was conducted through a series of seven tests with three types of soils – “Good Earth”, “Soft Clay” and an even mix of the two. Validation was performed against the PSD and w of each soil type obtained from conventional laboratory tests. The results show that ρ, w and CPT measurements can be collectively analyzed to classify soils into “Good Earth” or “Soft Clay”. It is also found that these parameters can be integrated with the computer vision technique on-site to complete the rapid soil classification in less than three minutes.

Keywords: Computer vision technique, cone penetration test, electrical resistivity, rapid and non-destructive, soil classification

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Authors: N. Pritchard

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Within architectural education, students arrive fore-armed with; their life-experience; knowledge gained from subject-based learning; their brains and more specifically their imaginations. The learning-by-doing that they embark on in studio-based/project-based learning calls for supervision that allows the student to proactively undertake research and experimentation with design solution possibilities. The degree to which this supervision includes direction is subject to debate and differing opinion. It can be argued that if the student is to learn-by-doing, then design decision making within the design process needs to be instigated and owned by the student so that they have the ability to personally reflect on and evaluate those decisions. Within this premise lies the problem that the student's endeavours can become unstructured and unfocused as they work their way into a new and complex activity. A resultant weakness can be that the design activity is compartmented and not holistic or comprehensive, and therefore, the student's reflections are consequently impoverished in terms of providing a positive, informative feedback loop. The construct proffered in this paper is that a supportive 'armature' or 'Heuristic-Framework' can be developed that facilitates a holistic approach and reflective learning. The normal explorations of architectural design comprise: Analysing the site and context, reviewing building precedents, assimilating the briefing information. However, the student can still be compromised by 'not knowing what they need to know'. The long-serving triad 'Firmness, Commodity and Delight' provides a broad-brush framework of considerations to explore and integrate into good design. If this were further atomised in subdivision formed from the disparate aspects of architectural design that need to be considered within the design process, then the student could sieve through the facts more methodically and reflectively in terms of considering their interrelationship conflict and alliances. The words facts and sieve hold the acronym of the aspects that form the Heuristic-Framework: Function, Aesthetics, Context, Tectonics, Spatial, Servicing, Infrastructure, Environmental, Value and Ecological issues. The Heuristic could be used as a Hermeneutic Model with each aspect of design being focused on and considered in abstraction and then considered in its relation to other aspect and the design proposal as a whole. Importantly, the heuristic could be used as a method for gathering information and enhancing the design brief. The more poetic, mysterious, intuitive, unconscious processes should still be able to occur for the student. The Heuristic-Framework should not be seen as comprehensive prescriptive formulaic or inhibiting to the wide exploration of possibilities and solutions within the architectural design process.

Keywords: atomistic, hermeneutic, holistic, approach architectural design studio education

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