Search results for: autoregressive integrate moving average model selection

Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

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In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

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Authors: Soudabeh Shemehsavar

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In this paper, we consider the situation under a life test, in which the failure time of the test units are not related deterministically to an observable stochastic time varying covariate. In such a case, the joint distribution of failure time and a marker value would be useful for modeling the step stress life test. The problem of accelerating such an experiment is considered as the main aim of this paper. We present a step stress accelerated model based on a bivariate Wiener process with one component as the latent (unobservable) degradation process, which determines the failure times and the other as a marker process, the degradation values of which are recorded at times of failure. Parametric inference based on the proposed model is discussed and the optimization procedure for obtaining the optimal time for changing the stress level is presented. The optimization criterion is to minimize the approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a percentile of the products’ lifetime distribution.

Keywords: bivariate normal, Fisher information matrix, inverse Gaussian distribution, Wiener process

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Authors: Muhanad Al-Jubouri

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A local scour is the most important of the several scours impacting bridge performance and security. Even though scour is widespread in bridges, especially during flood seasons, the experimental tests could not be applied to many standard highway bridges. A computational fluid dynamics numerical model was used to solve the problem of calculating local scouring and deposition for non-cohesive silt and clear water conditions near single and double cylindrical piers with the effect of floating debris. When FLOW-3D software is employed with the Rang turbulence model, the Nilsson bed-load transfer equation and fine mesh size are considered. The numerical findings of single cylindrical piers correspond pretty well with the physical model's results. Furthermore, after parameter effectiveness investigates the range of outcomes based on predicted user inputs such as the bed-load equation, mesh cell size, and turbulence model, the final numerical predictions are compared to experimental data. When the findings are compared, the error rate for the deepest point of the scour is equivalent to 3.8% for the single pier example.

Keywords: local scouring, non-cohesive, clear water, computational fluid dynamics, turbulence model, bed-load equation, debris

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Authors: Pablo J. Valverde, Jaime E. Fernandez

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This paper shows under which conditions public corruption can emerge. The theoretical model includes variables such as the public employee wage (w), a control corruption parameter (c), and the group size of interactions (GS) between clusters of public officers and contractors. The system behavior is analyzed using phase diagrams based on combinations of such parameters (c, w, GS). Numerical simulations are implemented in order to contrast analytic results based on Nash equilibria of the theoretical model. Major findings include the functional relationship between wages and network topology, which attempts to reduce the emergence of corrupt behavior.

Keywords: public corruption, game theory, complex systems, Nash equilibrium.

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Authors: Duncan Oteki, Andebut Yeneneh, Daba Gedafa, Nabil Suleiman

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Most agencies lack the equipment required to measure the dynamic modulus (|E*|) of asphalt mixtures, necessitating the need to use predictive models. This study compared measured |E*| values for nine North Dakota asphalt mixes using the original Witczak, modified Witczak, and Hirsch models. The influence of temperature on the |E*| models was investigated, and Pavement ME simulations were conducted using measured |E*| and predictions from the most accurate |E*| model. The results revealed that the original Witczak model yielded the lowest Se/Sy and highest R² values, indicating the lowest bias and highest accuracy, while the poorest overall performance was exhibited by the Hirsch model. Using predicted |E*| as inputs in the Pavement ME generated conservative distress predictions compared to using measured |E*|. The original Witczak model was recommended for predicting |E*| for low-reliability pavements in North Dakota.

Keywords: asphalt mixture, binder, dynamic modulus, MEPDG, pavement ME, performance, prediction

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Authors: Muhammad Tayyab Sohail, Li Jiangfeng

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This study aimed at characterizing land cover dynamics for about three decades in capital city of Pakistan Islamabad. The specific objectives were identifying and map the major land cover types in 1993, 2002 and 2014 and check the reduction of greenery and urbanization rate and its some environments aspects. The study showed that overall grasslands decreased in the prescribed period. The key hotspots of these changes were distributed in all directions of the study area, but at different times. Urbanization is increasing every year in this city but the policies for this number of people are not sufficient to meet their living standard requirements. Apart from it, there is also an impact of urbanization on environmental related problems. Underground water is going down and down, traffic related issue and other associated problems are part of this research. Therefore, policies that integrate restoration and conservation of natural ecosystems with enhancement of agricultural productivity are strongly recommended. This will ensure environmental sustainability and socio-economic well-being in the area. Future research needs to address the problems related to urbanization and need to clarify the problems and solve it on high priority.

Keywords: land, Islamabad, water, urban

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Authors: Azizul Baten, Kamrul Hossain, Abdullah-Al-Zabir

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The objective of this study is to develop an appropriate stochastic frontier secondary schools efficiency model by ICT Intervention and to examine the impact of ICT challenges on secondary schools efficiency in the Sylhet division in Bangladesh using stochastic frontier analysis. The Translog stochastic frontier model was found an appropriate than the Cobb-Douglas model in secondary schools efficiency by ICT Intervention. Based on the results of the Cobb-Douglas model, it is found that the coefficient of the number of teachers, the number of students, and teaching ability had a positive effect on increasing the level of efficiency. It indicated that these are related to technical efficiency. In the case of inefficiency effects for both Cobb-Douglas and Translog models, the coefficient of the ICT lab decreased secondary school inefficiency, but the online class in school was found to increase the level of inefficiency. The coefficients of teacher’s preference for ICT tools like multimedia projectors played a contributor role in decreasing the secondary school inefficiency in the Sylhet division of Bangladesh. The interaction effects of the number of teachers and the classrooms, and the number of students and the number of classrooms, the number of students and teaching ability, and the classrooms and teaching ability of the teachers were recorded with the positive values and these have a positive impact on increasing the secondary school efficiency. The overall mean efficiency of urban secondary schools was found at 84.66% for the Translog model, while it was 83.63% for the Cobb-Douglas model. The overall mean efficiency of rural secondary schools was found at 80.98% for the Translog model, while it was 81.24% for the Cobb-Douglas model. So, the urban secondary schools performed better than the rural secondary schools in the Sylhet division. It is observed from the results of the Tobit model that the teacher-student ratio had a positive influence on secondary school efficiency. The teaching experiences of those who have 1 to 5 years and 10 years above, MPO type school, conventional teaching method have had a negative and significant influence on secondary school efficiency. The estimated value of σ-square (0.0625) was different from Zero, indicating a good fit. The value of γ (0.9872) was recorded as positive and it can be interpreted as follows: 98.72 percent of random variation around in secondary school outcomes due to inefficiency.

Keywords: efficiency, secondary schools, ICT, stochastic frontier analysis

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Authors: Fateme Nokhodchi Bonab

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Studies related to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and drug delivery are reviewed in this study to demonstrate the role of transport theory in porous media in facilitating advances in biomedical applications. Diffusion processes are believed to be important in many therapeutic modalities such as: B. Delivery of drugs to the brain. We analyse the progress in the development of diffusion equations using the local volume average method and the evaluation of applications related to diffusion equations. Torsion and porosity have significant effects on diffusive transport. In this study, various relevant models of torsion are presented and mathematical modeling of drug release from biodegradable delivery systems is analysed. In this study, a new model of drug release kinetics from porous biodegradable polymeric microspheres under bulk and surface erosion of the polymer matrix is presented. Solute drug diffusion, drug dissolution from the solid phase, and polymer matrix erosion have been found to play a central role in controlling the overall drug release process. This work paves the way for MRI and drug delivery researchers to develop comprehensive models based on porous media theory that use fewer assumptions compared to other approaches.

Keywords: MRI, porous media, drug delivery, biomedical applications

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Authors: Ozgu Hafizoglu

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Analogy is an essential tool of human cognition that enables connecting diffuse and diverse systems with attributional, deep structural, casual relations that are essential to learning, to innovation in artificial worlds, and to discovery in science. Cognitive Model of Analogy (CMA) leads and creates information pattern transfer within and between domains and disciplines in science. This paper demonstrates the Cognitive Model of Analogy (CMA) as an evolutionary approach to scientific research. The model puts forward the challenges of deep uncertainty about the future, emphasizing the need for flexibility of the system in order to enable reasoning methodology to adapt to changing conditions. In this paper, the model of analogical reasoning is created based on brain cells, their fractal, and operational forms within the system itself. Visualization techniques are used to show correspondences. Distinct phases of the problem-solving processes are divided thusly: encoding, mapping, inference, and response. The system is revealed relevant to brain activation considering each of these phases with an emphasis on achieving a better visualization of the brain cells: glial cells, axons, axon terminals, and neurons, relative to matching conditions of analogical reasoning and relational information. It’s found that encoding, mapping, inference, and response processes in four-term analogical reasoning are corresponding with the fractal and operational forms of brain cells: glial, axons, and neurons.

Keywords: analogy, analogical reasoning, cognitive model, brain and glials

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Authors: Irina S. Burashnikova, Dmitriy A. Sychev, Ruslan Y. Kazakov

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Сytochrome P450 CYP2D6 activity affects antipsychotic therapy safety. CYP2D6*4 polymorphism frequency varies among different ethnic groups. We studied CYP2D6*4 polymorphism frequency in Tatar and Russian schizophrenic patients and association of CYP2D6*4 polymorphism and extrapyramidal disorders (EPD) frequency in schizophrenic patients on haloperidol monotherapy in daily doses up to 20 mg. Results: Heterozygous CYP2D6*4 allele carrier frequency among Tatars was lower (23.8% vs 32.4% in Russians), but the differences did not reach statistical significance. CYP2D6*4 allele frequency among Tatars was also lower (11.9% vs 24.3% in Russians), but the difference was not quite significant (p=0.0592). Average daily haloperidol dose in the group without EPD was significantly higher than in the group with EPD (11.35±4.6 vs 13.87±3.3 mg, p=0.0252), but average daily haloperidol dose/weight ratios in the compared groups had no significant differences. Statistically significant association between EPD development and heterozygous CYP2D6*1/*4 genotype and CYP2D6*4 allele carrier frequency was revealed among all schizophrenic patients and among those of Tatar nationality. Further well designed pharmacogenetic studies in different Russian regions are needed to improve psychotropic therapy safety and to establish evidence-based indications for pharmacogenetic testing in clinical practice.

Keywords: antipsychotic, CYP2D6 polymorphism, ethnic differences of CYP2D6*4 allele frequency, extrapyramidal side effects/disorder, schizophrenia, pharmacogenetics, Russians, Tatars

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Authors: Mehdi Ghommem, Daniel Garcia, Nathan Collier, Victor Calo

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We develop a fast, user-friendly implementation of a potential flow solver based on the unsteady vortex lattice method (UVLM). The computational framework uses the Python programming language which has easy integration with the scripts requiring computationally-expensive operations written in Fortran. The mixed-language approach enables high performance in terms of solution time and high flexibility in terms of easiness of code adaptation to different system configurations and applications. This computational tool is intended to predict the unsteady aerodynamic behavior of multiple moving bodies (e.g., flapping wings, rotating blades, suspension bridges...) subject to an incoming air. We simulate different aerodynamic problems to validate and illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the developed computational tool.

Keywords: unsteady aerodynamics, numerical simulations, mixed-language approach, potential flow

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Authors: Addisu Tadesse Sahile, Mussie Wubshet Teka, Solomon Muluken Ayehu

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Background: Diabetes is one of the common public health problems of the century that was estimated to affect one in a tenth of the world population by the year 2030, where diabetes ketoacidosis is one of its common acute complications. Objectives: The aim of this review was to assess the magnitude of diabetes ketoacidosis among patients with type 1 diabetes in Ethiopia. Methods: A systematic data search was done across Google Scholar, PubMed, Web of Science, and African Online Journals. Two reviewers carried out the selection, reviewing, screening, and extraction of the data independently by using a Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet. The Joanna Briggs Institute's prevalence critical appraisal tool was used to assess the quality of evidence. All studies conducted in Ethiopia that reported diabetes ketoacidosis rates among type 1 diabetes were included. The extracted data was imported into the comprehensive meta-analysis version 3.0 for further analysis. Heterogeneity was checked by Higgins’s method, whereas the publication bias was checked by using Beggs and Eggers’s tests. A random-effects meta-analysis model with a 95% confidence interval was computed to estimate the pooled prevalence. Furthermore, subgroup analysis based on the study area (Region) and the sample size was carried out. Result and Conclusion: After review made across a total of 51 articles, of which 12 articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of diabetes ketoacidosis among type 1 diabetes in Ethiopia was 53.2% (95%CI: 43.1%-63.1%). The highest prevalence of DKA was reported in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, whereas the lowest was reported in the Southern region of Ethiopia. Concerned bodies were suggested to work on the escalated burden of diabetes ketoacidosis in Ethiopia.

Keywords: DKA, Type 1 diabetes, Ethiopia, systematic review, meta-analysis

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Authors: Christine P. Gibson, Ramona Alex, Michael Farney, Johana Vallejo-Elias, Mitra Esfandiarei

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Aortic aneurysm is the leading cause of death in Marfan syndrome (MFS), a connective tissue disorder caused by mutations in fibrillin-1 gene (FBN1). MFS aneurysm is characterized by weakening of the aortic wall due to elastin fibers fragmentation and disorganization. The above-average height and distinct physical features make young adults with MFS desirable candidates for competitive sports; but little is known about the exercise limit at which they will be at risk for aortic rupture. On the other hand, aerobic cardiovascular exercise has been shown to have protective effects on the heart and aorta. We have previously reported that mild aerobic exercise can delay the formation of aortic aneurysm in a mouse model of MFS. In this study, we aimed to investigate the effects of various levels of exercise intensity on the progression of aortic aneurysm in the mouse model. Starting at 4 weeks of age, we subjected control and MFS mice to different levels of exercise intensity (8m/min, 10m/min, 15m/min, and 20m/min, corresponding to 55%, 65%, 75%, and 85% of VO2 max, respectively) on a treadmill for 30 minutes per day, five days a week for the duration of the study. At 24 weeks of age, aortic tissue were isolated and subjected to structural and functional studies using histology and wire myography in order to evaluate the effects of different exercise routines on elastin fragmentation and organization and aortic wall elasticity/stiffness. Our data shows that exercise training at the intensity levels between 55%-75% significantly reduces elastin fragmentation and disorganization, with less recovery observed in 85% MFS group. The reversibility of elasticity was also significantly restored in MFS mice subjected to 55%-75% intensity; however, the recovery was less pronounced in MFS mice subjected to 85% intensity. Furthermore, our data shows that smooth muscle cells (SMCs) contractilion in response to vasoconstrictor agent phenylephrine (100nM) is significantly reduced in MFS aorta (54.84 ± 1.63 mN/mm2) as compared to control (95.85 ± 3.04 mN/mm2). At 55% of intensity, exercise did not rescue SMCs contraction (63.45 ± 1.70 mN/mm2), while at higher intensity levels, SMCs contraction in response to phenylephrine was restored to levels similar to control aorta [65% (81.88 ± 4.57 mN/mm2), 75% (86.22 ± 3.84 mN/mm2), and 85% (83.91 ± 5.42 mN/mm2)]. This study provides the first time evidence that high intensity exercise (e.g. 85%) may not provide the most beneficial effects on aortic function (vasoconstriction) and structure (elastin fragmentation, aortic wall elasticity) during the progression of aortic aneurysm in MFS mice. On the other hand, based on our observations, medium intensity exercise (e.g. 65%) seems to provide the utmost protective effects on aortic structure and function in MFS mice. These findings provide new insights into the potential capacity, in which MFS patients could participate in various aerobic exercise routines, especially in young adults affected by cardiovascular complications particularly aortic aneurysm. This work was funded by Midwestern University Research Fund.

Keywords: aerobic exercise, aortic aneurysm, aortic wall elasticity, elastin fragmentation, Marfan syndrome

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Authors: Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu

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Developing complete mechanistic models for polymerization reactors is not easy, because complex reactions occur simultaneously; there is a large number of kinetic parameters involved and sometimes the chemical and physical phenomena for mixtures involving polymers are poorly understood. To overcome these difficulties, empirical models based on sampled data can be used instead, namely regression methods typical of machine learning field. They have the ability to learn the trends of a process without any knowledge about its particular physical and chemical laws. Therefore, they are useful for modeling complex processes, such as the free radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate achieved in a batch bulk process. The goal is to generate accurate predictions of monomer conversion, numerical average molecular weight and gravimetrical average molecular weight. This process is associated with non-linear gel and glass effects. For this purpose, an adaptive sampling technique is presented, which can select more samples around the regions where the values have a higher variation. Several machine learning methods are used for the modeling and their performance is compared: support vector machines, k-nearest neighbor, k-nearest neighbor and random forest, as well as an original algorithm, large margin nearest neighbor regression. The suggested method provides very good results compared to the other well-known regression algorithms.

Keywords: batch bulk methyl methacrylate polymerization, adaptive sampling, machine learning, large margin nearest neighbor regression

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Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

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Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

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Authors: SunWoo Lee, TaeBum Lee, YoonHwa Park, YooJeong Kim

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Solar lentigines appear predominantly on chronically sun-exposed areas of skin, such as the face and the back of the hands. Among the several ways to lentigines treatment, quality-switched lasers are well-known effective treatment for removing solar lentigines. The present pilot study was therefore designed to assess the efficacy of quality-switched ruby laser treatment of such lentigines compare between pretreatment and posttreatment of skin brightness. Twenty-two adults with chronic sun-damaged skin (mean age 52.8 years, range 37–74 years) were treated at the Korean site. A 694 nm Q-switched ruby laser was used, with the energy density set from 1.4 to 12.5 J/cm2, to treat solar lentigines. Average brightness of skin color before ruby laser treatment was 137.3 and its skin color was brightened after ruby laser treatment by 150.5. Also, standard deviation of skin color was decreased from 17.8 to 16.4. Regarding the multivariate model, age and energy were identified as significant factors for skin color brightness change in lentigo depigmentation by ruby laser treatment. Their respective odds ratios were 1.082 (95% CI, 1.007–1.163), and 1.431 (95% CI, 1.051–1.946). Lentigo depigmentation treatment using ruby lasers resulted in a high performance in skin color brightness. Among the relative factors involve with ruby laser treatment, age and energy were the most effective factors which skin color change to brighter than pretreatment.

Keywords: depigmentation, lentigine, quality switched ruby laser, skin color

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Authors: JoonHo Lee, KyoJin An, JunSu Kim, Young-Chul Park

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In this study, the fluid flow characteristics and performance numerical study through CFD model of the Non-split quick coupling for flow control in hydraulic system equipment for the aerospace business group focused to predict. In this study, we considered turbulence models for the application of Computational Fluid Dynamics for the CFD model of the Non-split Quick Coupling for aerospace business. In addition to this, the adequacy of the CFD model were verified by comparing with standard value. Based on this analysis, accurate the fluid flow characteristics can be predicted. It is, therefore, the design of the fluid flow characteristic contribute the reliability for the Quick Coupling which is required in industries on the basis of research results.

Keywords: CFD, FEM, quick coupling, turbulence

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Authors: Hamed Zolfaghari, Mojtaba Kord

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Project planners and controllers are frequently faced with the challenge of inadequate software for the preparation of automatic project progress reports based on actual project information updates. They usually make dashboards in Microsoft Excel, which is local and not applicable online. Another shortcoming is that it is not linked to planning software such as Microsoft Project, which lacks the database required for data storage. This study aimed to propose a model for the preparation of reports on automatic online project progress based on actual project information updates by the integration of Primavera P6, SQL database, and Power BI for a construction project. The designed model could be applicable to project planners and controller agents by enabling them to prepare project reports automatically and immediately after updating the project schedule using actual information. To develop the model, the data were entered into P6, and the information was stored on the SQL database. The proposed model could prepare a wide range of reports, such as earned value management, HR reports, and financial, physical, and risk reports automatically on the Power BI application. Furthermore, the reports could be published and shared online.

Keywords: primavera P6, SQL, Power BI, EVM, integration management

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Authors: Hao Yan, Xiaobing Zhang

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The working mechanism of miniaturized solid rocket motors (SRMs) is not yet fully understood. It is imperative to explore its unique features. However, there are many disadvantages to using common multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) in predicting the parameters of the miniaturized SRM during its conceptual design phase. Initially, the design variables and objectives are constrained in a lumped parameter model (LPM) of this SRM, which leads to local optima in MOEAs. In addition, MOEAs require a large number of calculations due to their population strategy. Although the calculation time for simulating an LPM just once is usually less than that of a CFD simulation, the number of function evaluations (NFEs) is usually large in MOEAs, which makes the total time cost unacceptably long. Moreover, the accuracy of the LPM is relatively low compared to that of a CFD model due to its assumptions. CFD simulations or experiments are required for comparison and verification of the optimal results obtained by MOEAs with an LPM. The conceptual design phase based on MOEAs is a lengthy process, and its results are not precise enough due to the above shortcomings. An artificial neural network (ANN) based parameter prediction is proposed as a way to reduce time costs and improve prediction accuracy. In this method, an ANN is used to build a surrogate model that is trained with a 3D numerical simulation. In design, the original LPM is replaced by a surrogate model. Each case uses the same MOEAs, in which the calculation time of the two models is compared, and their optimization results are compared with 3D simulation results. Using the surrogate model for the parameter prediction process of the miniaturized SRMs results in a significant increase in computational efficiency and an improvement in prediction accuracy. Thus, the ANN-based surrogate model does provide faster and more accurate parameter prediction for an initial design scheme. Moreover, even when the MOEAs converge to local optima, the time cost of the ANN-based surrogate model is much lower than that of the simplified physical model LPM. This means that designers can save a lot of time during code debugging and parameter tuning in a complex design process. Designers can reduce repeated calculation costs and obtain accurate optimal solutions by combining an ANN-based surrogate model with MOEAs.

Keywords: artificial neural network, solid rocket motor, multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, surrogate model

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Authors: Prima Khairunisa, Febriana Tri Kusumawati, Endah Luthfiana

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Background: Hypertension in elderly, caused by cardiovascular system cannot work normally, because the valves thickened and inelastic blood vessels. It causes vasoconstriction of the blood vessels. Hypertension exercise, increase cardiovascular function and the elasticity of the blood vessels. While slow deep breathing helps the body and mind feel relax. Combination both of them will decrease the blood pressure. Objective: To know the effect of hypertension exercise and slow deep breathing combination to blood pressure in elderly. Method: The study conducted with one group pre-post test experimental design. The samples were 10 elderly both male and female in a Village in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. The tool was manual sphygmomanometer to measure blood pressure. Result: Based on paired t-test between hypertension exercise and slow deep breathing with systole blood pressure showed sig (2-tailed) was 0.045, while paired t-test between hypertension exercise hypertension exercise and slow deep breathing with diastole blood pressure showed sig (2-tailed) was 0,343. The changes of systole blood pressure were 127.5 mmHg, and diastole blood pressure was 80 mmHg. Systole blood pressure decreases significantly because the average of systole blood pressure before implementation was 135-160 mmHg. While diastole blood pressure was not decreased significantly. It was influenced by the average of diastole blood pressure before implementation of hypertension exercise was not too high. It was between 80- 90 mmHg. Conclusion: There was an effect of hypertension exercise and slow deep breathing combination to the blood pressure in elderly after 6 times implementations.

Keywords: hypertension exercise, slow deep breathing, elderly, blood pressure

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Authors: Aarthi Sridhar, Henri Gavin, Karah Kelly

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Rolling Isolation Systems (RISs) are simple and effective means to mitigate earthquake hazards to equipment in critical and precious facilities, such as hospitals, network collocation facilities, supercomputer centers, and museums. The RIS works by isolating components acceleration the inertial forces felt by the subsystem. The RIS consists of two platforms with counter-facing concave surfaces (dishes) in each corner. Steel balls lie inside the dishes and allow the relative motion between the top and bottom platform. Formerly, a mathematical model for the dynamics of RISs was developed using Lagrange’s equations (LE) and experimentally validated. A new mathematical model was developed using Gauss’s Principle of Least Constraint (GPLC) and verified by comparing impulse response trajectories of the GPLC model and the LE model in terms of the peak displacements and accelerations of the top platform. Mathematical models for the RIS are tedious to derive because of the non-holonomic rolling constraints imposed on the system. However, using Gauss’s Principle of Least constraint to find the equations of motion removes some of the obscurity and yields a system that can be easily extended. Though the GPLC model requires more state variables, the equations of motion are far simpler. The non-holonomic constraint is enforced in terms of accelerations and therefore requires additional constraint stabilization methods in order to avoid the possibility that numerical integration methods can cause the system to go unstable. The GPLC model allows the incorporation of more physical aspects related to the RIS, such as contribution of the vertical velocity of the platform to the kinetic energy and the mass of the balls. This mathematical model for the RIS is a tool to predict the motion of the isolation platform. The ability to statistically quantify the expected responses of the RIS is critical in the implementation of earthquake hazard mitigation.

Keywords: earthquake hazard mitigation, earthquake isolation, Gauss’s Principle of Least Constraint, nonlinear dynamics, rolling isolation system

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Authors: Mikhail Gritskevich, Sebastian Hohenstein

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The paper presents the results of a detailed assessment of several modern Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models for prediction of C3X vane film cooling at various injection regimes. Three models are considered, namely the Shear Stress Transport (SST) model, the modification of the SST model accounting for the streamlines curvature (SST-CC), and the Explicit Algebraic Reynolds Stress Model (EARSM). It is shown that all the considered models face with a problem in prediction of the adiabatic effectiveness in the vicinity of the cooling holes; however, accounting for the Reynolds stress anisotropy within the EARSM model noticeably increases the solution accuracy. On the other hand, further downstream all the models provide a reasonable agreement with the experimental data for the adiabatic effectiveness and among the considered models the most accurate results are obtained with the use EARMS.

Keywords: discrete holes film cooling, Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), Reynolds stress tensor anisotropy, turbulent heat transfer

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Authors: Ahmed Mousa, Huda Mazeed

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The research aims to determine the appropriate songs and artistic indications for the kindergarten child. In addition, it aims to use the songs of folk to develop expressive visual drawings with artistic connotations for the kindergarten child. The current research used a one group semi-experimental approach to identify the impact of songs on expressive children's drawings. The research community is represented in the educational administration in Giza Governorate for the academic year (2018 - 2019). The sample was taken from the kindergarten of Gamal Abdel Nasser School of Dokki Educational Administration in Giza Governorate. The study was applied to the second level children sample (5-6 years), where they numbered 20 children, males and females. The research results show that there are statistically significant differences between the average scores of the children of the experimental group in the pre and post-measurements on the observation card for children after hearing the songs of social and national folk in favor of post measurement. Moreover, the results demonstrate that there are no statistically significant differences between the average scores of children in the experimental group in the measurements, the post and follow-up, on the observation card of children's drawings for social and national folk.

Keywords: folk songs, visual expressive, artistic connotations, early childhood

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Authors: Nurlisa Uke Dessy, Dwi Septian Erwinsyah, Zuprizal

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This experiment was aimed to investigate the effect of rosella flower flour in diet on broiler chicken Performace. The materials used in this experiment were 72 broiler chickens and were divided into six treatments, those were R0 = without rosella flower flour addition, R1 = 0.5% rosella flower flour addition, R2 = 1.0% rosella flower flour addition, R3 = 1.5% rosella flower flour addition, R4 = 2.0% rosella flower flour addition, and R5 = 2.5% rosella flower flour addition. Each treatment consisted of three replications and each replication consisted of four broiler chickens. This research took 35 days to collect the data. Parameters measured were feed intake, rosella flower flour consumption, body weight gain, feed conversion and mortality. The collected data were analyzed using Completely Randomized Design (CRD) and the differences of mean were tested by Duncan’s New Multiple Range Test (DMRT). The result showed the average of feed consumption were 2154; 2154; 2034; 2154; 2034 and 2154 g/bird on broiler chicken that were feed respectively by 0.0; 0.5; 1.0; 1.5; 2.0; and 2.5% rosella flower flour level. The average consumptions of rosella flower flour respectively were 0; 10.77; 20.34; 32.31; 40.68; and 53.85 g/bird. The body weight gains were 1263.33±70.40; 1422.42±36.33; 1443.75±30.00; 1387.42± 35.30; 1411.17±29.58 and 1457.08±40.75 g/bird. Feed conversion results were 1.71±0.94; 1.51±0.37; 1.47±0.62; 1.55±0.40; 1.53±0.30 and 1.48±0.40. The conclusion of the experiment was known that using rosella flower flour until 2.5% level in diet was able to increase broiler chicken performance, and also to decrease broiler chicken feed conversion.

Keywords: feed intake, consumptions rosella flower flour, broiler chickens, body weight gain, feed conversion

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Authors: Paolo Pietro Biancone

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The spread of Islamic financial instruments is an opportunity to offer integration for the immigrant population and to attract, through the specific products, the richness of sovereign funds from the "Arab" countries. However, it is important to consider the possibility of comparing a traditional finance model, which in recent times has given rise to many doubts, with an "alternative" finance model, where the ethical aspect arising from religious principles is very important.

Keywords: banks, Europe, Islamic finance, Italy

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Authors: Damian Gordon, Paul Doyle, Anna Becevel, Júlia Vilafranca Molero, Cinta Gascon, Arianna Vitiello, Tina Baloh

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It has long been recognized that the creation of any teaching content can be enhanced if the development process follows a pre-defined approach, which is often referred to as an instructional design methodology. These methodologies typically define a number of stages, or phases, that an educator should undertake to help ensure the quality of the final teaching content that is developed. In this paper, we present an instructional design methodology that is focused specifically on the introduction of blended resources into a heretofore bricks-and-mortar course. To achieve this, research was undertaken concerning a range of models of instructional design, as well as literature covering some of the key challenges and “pain points” of blending. Following this, our model, the BL-5D model, is presented, which incorporates some key questions at each stage of this five-stage methodology to guide the development process. Finally, a discussion of some of the key themes and issues that have been uncovered in this work is presented, as well as a template for a blended learning case study that emerged from this approach.

Keywords: blended learning, challenges of blended learning, design methodologies, instructional design

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Authors: Andrea Gion Saluz, Tal Hertig, Axel Heinrich, Stefan Stevanovic

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Higher temperatures, seasonal changes in precipitation, and extreme weather events are increasingly affecting trees. To counteract the increasing challenges of urban trees, strategies are increasingly being sought to preserve existing tree populations on the one hand and to prepare for the coming years on the other. One such strategy lies in strategic climate tree species selection. The search is on for species or varieties that can cope with the new climatic conditions. Many efforts in German-speaking countries deal with this in detail, such as the tree lists of the German Conference of Garden Authorities (GALK), the project Stadtgrün 2021, or the instruments of the Climate Species Matrix by Prof. Dr. Roloff. In this context, different methods for a correct species selection are offered. One possibility is to select certain physiological attributes that indicate the climate resilience of a species. To calculate the dissimilarity of the present climate of different geographic regions in relation to the future climate of any city, a weighted (standardized) Euclidean distance (SED) for seasonal climate values is calculated for each region of the Earth. The calculation was performed in the QGIS geographic information system, using global raster datasets on monthly climate values in the 1981-2010 standard period. Data from a European forest inventory were used to identify tree species growing in the calculated analogue climate regions. The inventory used is the compilation of georeferenced point data at a 1 km grid resolution on the occurrence of tree species in 21 European countries. In this project, the results of the methodological application are shown for the city of Zurich for the year 2060. In the first step, analog climate regions based on projected climate values for the measuring station Kirche Fluntern (ZH) were searched for. In a further step, the methods mentioned above were applied to generate tree species lists for the city of Zurich. These lists were then qualitatively evaluated with respect to the suitability of the different tree species for the Zurich area to generate a cleaned and thus usable list of possible future tree species.

Keywords: climate change, climate region, climate tree, urban tree

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Authors: Wera Supa, Panita Wannapiroon

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This paper is a report on the designing of the social collaborative learning model based on proactive involvement to Promote the global merit principle in cultivating youths’ morality. The research procedures into two phases, the first phase is to design the social collaborative learning model based on proactive involvement to promote the global merit principle in cultivating youths’ morality, and the second is to evaluate the social collaborative learning model based on proactive involvement. The sample group in this study consists of 15 experts who are dominant in proactive participation, moral merit principle and youths’ morality cultivation from executive level, lecturers and the professionals in information and communication technology expertise selected using the purposive sampling method. Data analyzed by arithmetic mean and standard deviation. This study has explored that there are four significant factors in promoting the hands-on collaboration of global merit scheme in order to implant virtues to adolescences which are: 1) information and communication Technology Usage; 2) proactive involvement; 3) morality cultivation policy, and 4) global merit principle. The experts agree that the social collaborative learning model based on proactive involvement is highly appropriate.

Keywords: social collaborative learning, proactive involvement, global merit principle, morality

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Authors: Ramona Zharfpeykan, Paul Rouse

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Organizational sustainability is important to both organizations themselves and their stakeholders. Despite its increasing popularity and increasing numbers of organizations reporting sustainability, research on evaluating and comparing the sustainability performance of companies is limited. The aim of this study was to develop models to measure sustainability performance for both cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons across companies in the same or different industries. A secondary aim was to see if sustainability reports can be used to evaluate sustainability performance. The study used both a content analysis of Australian sustainability reports in mining and metals and financial services for 2011-2014 and a survey of Australian and New Zealand organizations. Two methods ranging from a composite index using uniform weights to data envelopment analysis (DEA) were employed to analyze the data and develop the models. The results show strong statistically significant relationships between the developed models, which suggests that each model provides a consistent, systematic and reasonably robust analysis. The results of the models show that for both industries, companies that had sustainability scores above or below the industry average stayed almost the same during the study period. These indices and models can be used by companies to evaluate their sustainability performance and compare it with previous years, or with other companies in the same or different industries. These methods can also be used by various stakeholders and sustainability ranking companies such as the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI).

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, sustainability, sustainability performance measurement system, sustainability performance index, global reporting initiative

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Authors: Igor Filikhin, Vladimir M. Suslov, Roman Ya. Kezerashvili, Branislav Vlahivic

Abstract:

The mass-polarization term of the three-body kinetic energy operator is evaluated for different systems which include two identical particles: A+A+B. The term has to be taken into account for the analysis of AB- and AA-interactions based on experimental data for two- and three-body ground state energies. In this study, we present three-body calculations within the framework of a potential model for the kaonic clusters K−K−p and ppK−, nucleus 3H and hypernucleus 6 ΛΛHe. The systems are well clustering as A+ (A+B) with a ground state energy E2 for the pair A+B. The calculations are performed using the method of the Faddeev equations in configuration space. The phenomenological pair potentials were used. We show a correlation between the mass ratio mA/mB and the value δB of the mass-polarization term. For bosonic-like systems, this value is defined as δB = 2E2 − E3, where E3 is three-body energy when VAA = 0. For the systems including three particles with spin(isospin), the models with average AB-potentials are used. In this case, the Faddeev equations become a scalar one like for the bosonic-like system αΛΛ. We show that the additional energy conected with the mass-polarization term can be decomposite to a sum of the two parts: exchenge related and reduced mass related. The state of the system can be described as the following: the particle A1 is bound within the A + B pair with the energy E2, and the second particle A2 is bound with the pair with the energy E3 − E2. Due to the identity of A particles, the particles A1 and A2 are interchangeable in the pair A + B. We shown that the mass polarization δB correlates with a type of AB potential using the system αΛΛ as an example.

Keywords: three-body systems, mass polarization, Faddeev equations, nuclear interactions

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