Search results for: crisis scenarios cycles

Authors: Shamir Balderman Orit, Shamir Michal

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Israel often deals with crisis situations, but most have been characterized as security crises (e.g., war). This is the first time that the Israel has dealt with a health and social emergency as part of a global crisis. The crisis began in January 2020 with the emergence of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19), which was defined as a pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020) and arrived in Israel in early March 2020. This study examined how single mothers by choice (SMBC) experience state anxiety (SA), social support, work–family conflict (WFC), and happiness. This group has not been studied in the context of crises in general or a global crisis. Using a snowball sample, 386 SMBCanswered an online questionnaire. The findings show a negative relationship between income and level of state anxiety. State anxiety was also negatively associated with social support, level of happiness, and WFC. Finally, a stepwise regression analysis indicated that happiness explained 34% of the variance in SA. We also found that most of the women did not turn to formal support agencies such as social workers, other Government Ministries, or municipal welfare. A positive and strong correlations was also found between SA and WFC. The findings of the study reinforce the understanding that although these women made a conscious and informed decision regarding the choice of their family cell, their situation is more complex in the absence of a spouse support. Therefore, this study, as other future studies in the field of SMBC, may contribute to the improvement of their social status and the understanding that they are a unique group. Although SMBC are a growing sector of society in the past few years, there are still special needs and special attention that is needed from the formal and informal supports systems. A comparative study of these two groups and in different countries would shed light on SA among mothers in general, regardless of their relationship status and location. Researchers should expand this study by comparing mothers in relationships and exploring how SMBC coped in other countries. In summary, the findings of the study contribute knowledge on three levels: (a) knowledge about SMBC in general and during crisis situations; (b) examination of social support using tools assessing receipt of assistance and support, some of which were developed for the present study; and (c) insights regarding counseling, accompaniment, and guidance of welfare mechanisms.

Keywords: single mothers by choice, state anxiety, social support, happiness, work-family conflict

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Authors: T. Tommasi, E. Batuecas, G. Mancini, G. Saracco, D. Fino

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Extra virgin olive-oil (EVO) production is an important economic activity for several countries, especially in the Mediterranean area such as Spain, Italy, Greece and Tunisia. The two major by-products from olive oil production, solid-liquid Olive Pomace (OP) and the Olive Mill Waste Waters (OMWW), are still mainly disposed on soil, in spite of the existence of legislation which already limits this practice. The present study compares the environmental impacts associated with two different scenarios for the management of waste from olive oil production through a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The two alternative scenarios are: (I) Anaerobic Digestion and (II) current Disposal on soil. The analysis was performed through SimaPro software and the assessment of the impact categories was based on International Life Cycle Data and Cumulative Energy Demand methods. Both the scenarios are mostly related to the cultivation and harvesting phase and are highly dependent on the irrigation practice and related energy demand. Results from the present study clearly show that as the waste disposal on soil causes the worst environmental performance of all the impact categories here considered. Important environmental benefits have been identified when anaerobic digestion is instead chosen as the final treatment. It was consequently demonstrated that anaerobic digestion should be considered a feasible alternative for olive mills, to produce biogas from common olive oil residues, reducing the environmental burden and adding value to the olive oil production chain.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, waste management, agro-food waste, biogas

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Authors: Mohd Zamri Che Wanik

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This paper presents the management of the Fault Ride Through event within a Solar Farm during a grid fault. The modeling and simulation of a photovoltaic (PV) with battery energy storage connected to the power network will be described. The modeling approach and the study analysis performed are described. The model and operation scenarios are simulated using a digital simulator for different scenarios. The dynamic response of the system when subjected to sudden self-clearance temporary fault is presented. The capability of the PV system and battery storage riding through the power system fault and, at the same time, supporting the local grid by injecting fault current is demonstrated. For each case, the different control methods to achieve the objective of supporting the grid according to grid code requirements are presented and explained. The inverter modeling approach is presented and described.

Keywords: faut ride through, solar farm, grid code, power network

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Authors: Freddy Houndekindo

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A study was carried out to evaluate the flood risk in the district of Malanville located along the Niger River. The knowledge produce by this study is useful in the implementation of adaptation and/or mitigation measures to alleviate the impact of the flooding on the populations, the economy and the environment. Over the course of the study, the lack of data in the area of interest has been one of the main challenges encountered. Therefore, in the analysis of the flood hazard different sources of remotely sensed data were used. Moreover, the flood hazard was analysed by applying a 1D hydraulic model: HEC-RAS. After setting up the model for the study area, the different flood scenarios considered were simulated and mapped using ArcGIS and the HEC-GEORAS extension. The result of the simulation gave information about the inundated areas and the water depths at each location. From the analysis of the flood hazard, it was found that between 47% and 50% of the total area of the district of Malanville would be flooded in the different flood scenarios considered, and the water depth varies between 1 and 7 m. The townships of Malanville most at risk of flooding are Momkassa and Galiel, located in a high-risk and very high-risk zone, respectively. Furthermore, the assessment of the flood risk showed that the most vulnerable sector to the inundations is the agricultural sector. Indeed, the cultivated floodplains were the most affected areas by the floodwater in every flood scenarios. Knowing that a high proportion of the population of the district relies on their farmlands in these floodplains for their livelihood, the floods pose a challenge not only to the food security in the area but also to its development.

Keywords: flood risk management, Niger, remote sensing, vulnerability

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Authors: Caja Thimm

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Already well before the Corona pandemic hit the world, ‘fake news‘ were no longer regarded as harmless twists of the truth but as intentionally composed disinformation, often with the goal of manipulative populist propaganda. During the Corona crisis, particularly conspiracy narratives have become a worldwide phenomenon with dangerous consequences (anti vaccination myths). The success of these manipulated news need s to be counteracted by trustworthy news, which in Europe particularly includes public broadcasting media and their social media channels. To understand better how the main public broadcasters in Germany, the UK, and France used Instagram strategically, a comparative study was carried out. The study – comparative analysis of Instagram during the Corona Crisis In our empirical study, we compared the activities by selected formats during the Corona crisis in order to see how the public broadcasters reached their audiences and how this might, in the longer run, affect journalistic strategies on social media platforms. First analysis showed that the increase in the use of social media overall was striking. Almost one in two adult online users (48 %) obtained information about the virus in social media, and in total, 38% of the younger age group (18-24) looked for Covid19 information on Instagram, so the platform can be regarded as one of the central digital spaces for Corona related information searches. Quantitative measures showed that 47% of recent posts by the broadcasters were related to Corona, and 7% treated conspiracy myths. For the more detailed content analysis, the following categories of analysis were applied: • Digital storytelling and instastories • Textuality and semantic keys • links to information • stickers • videochat • fact checking • news ticker • service • infografics and animated tables Additionally to these basic features, we particularly looked for new formats created during the crisis. Journalistic use of social media platforms opens up immediate and creative ways of applying the media logics of the respective platforms, and particularly the BBC and ARD formats proved to be interactive, responsive, and entertaining. Among them were new formats such as a space for user questions and personal uploads, interviews, music, comedy, etc. Particularly the fact checking channel got a lot of attention, as many user questions were focused on the conspiracy theories, which dominated the public discourse during many weeks in 2020. In the presentation, we will introduce eight particular strategies that show how public broadcasting journalism can adopt digital platforms and use them creatively and, hence help to counteract against conspiracy narratives and fake news.

Keywords: fake news, social media, digital journalism, digital methods

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Authors: Melba D. Horton

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Algae are identified as an alternative source of biofuel because of their ubiquitous distribution in aquatic environments. Diatoms are unique forms of algae characterized by silicified cell walls which have gained prominence in various technological applications. Polk County is home to a multitude of ponds and lakes but has not been explored for the presence of diatoms. Considering the condition of the waters brought about by predominant phosphate mining activities in the area, this research was conducted to determine if endemic diatoms are present and explore their potential for low-cost mass production. Using custom-built photobioreactors, water samples from various lakes provided by the Polk County Parks and Recreation and from nearby ponds were used as the source of diatoms together with other algae obtained during collection. Results of the initial culture cycles were successful, but later an overgrowth of other algae crashed the diatom population. Experiments were conducted in the laboratory to tease out some factors possibly contributing to the die-off. Generally, the total biomass declines after two culture cycles and the causative factors need further investigation. The lipid yield is minimum; however, the high frustule production after die-off adds value to the overall benefit of the harvest.

Keywords: diatoms, algae, biofuel, lipid, photobioreactor, frustule

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Authors: S M Asger Ali, Duane A. Gill

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During crisis moments like a natural disaster, people tend to rely on the mass media to get up-to-date information and stay informed. However, when media are covering crisis news, they may lose some objectivity, and rather than providing balanced news coverage, media may become critical towards the government and private sectors for their participation in disaster response and recovery processes. This paper investigated the print media coverage of Hurricane Harvey and utilized data from three newspapers: the New York Times (online), the Wall Street Journal (online), and the Houston Chronicle. By examining the media's use of descriptors, quotes, wording, and images, this research explored how media coverage framed government and private sectors for their role in Harvey's response and recovery. Findings revealed that the human-interest frame received the most media attention, and the morality frame received less attention. Regarding tone, this study found that the media's overall tone for government response was neutral. However, the tone for the federal government was slightly negative, while the tone for city and state level of government was slightly positive. By examining the media's tone and frame, this research contributes to the literature on risk communication, mass media, and disaster studies.

Keywords: hurricane Harvey, mass media, risk communication, disaster response, media framing, crisis news coverage

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Authors: Abdullah M. Alzahrani, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

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There is an international consensus on the climate change in the entire world and this is as a result of the combination of the natural factors, such as volcanoes and hurricanes with increased of human activity on the earth, such as industrial renaissance. Where this solidarity increases emissions of greenhouse gases GHGs that considered as the main driver of climate change scenarios and related emerging risks and impacts on buildings. These climatic risks including damages, disruption and disquiet are set to increase and it is considered as the main challenges and difficulties facing built environment due to major implications on assets sector. Consequently, the threat from climate change patterns has a significant impact on a variety of complex human decisions, which affect all aspects of living. Understanding the relationship between buildings and such risks arising from climate change scenarios on buildings are the key in insuring the optimal timing and design of policies and systems, which affect all aspects of the built environment. This paper will uncovering this correlation between emerging climate change risks and the building assets. In addition, how these emerging risks can be classified in practical way in terms of their impact type on buildings. Hence, this mapping will assist professionals and interested parties in the building sector to cope with such risks in several systematic ways including development and designing of mitigation and adaptation strategies and processes of design, specification, construction, and operation; all these leads to successful management of assets.

Keywords: climate change, climate change risks, built environment, building sector, impacts

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Authors: S. Schröder, P. Ennen, T. Langer, S. Müller, M. Shehadeh, M. Haberstroh, F. Hees

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Since a bit over a year ago, Festo AG and Co. KG, Festo Didactic SE, robomotion GmbH, the researchers of the Cybernetics-Lab IMA/ZLW and IfU, as well as the Human-Computer Interaction Center at the RWTH Aachen University, have been working together in the focal point of assembly competences to realize different scenarios in the field of human-machine interaction (HMI). In the framework of project ARIZ, questions concerning the future of production within the fourth industrial revolution are dealt with. There are many perspectives of human-robot collaboration that consist Industry 4.0 on an individual, organization and enterprise level, and these will be addressed in ARIZ. The aim of the ARIZ projects is to link AI-Approaches to assembly problems and to implement them as prototypes in demonstrators. To do so, island and flow based production scenarios will be simulated and realized as prototypes. These prototypes will serve as applications of flexible robotics as well as AI-based planning and control of production process. Using the demonstrators, human interaction strategies will be examined with an information system on one hand, and a robotic system on the other. During the tests, prototypes of workspaces that illustrate prospective production work forms will be represented. The human being will remain a central element in future productions and will increasingly be in charge of managerial tasks. Questions thus arise within the overall perspective, primarily concerning the role of humans within these technological revolutions, as well as their ability to act and design respectively to the acceptance of such systems. Roles, such as the 'Trainer' of intelligent systems may become a possibility in such assembly scenarios.

Keywords: human-machine interaction, information technology, island based production, assembly competences

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Authors: Mike Tsionas

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The paper develops new indices of financial stability based on an explicit model of expected utility maximization by financial institutions subject to the classical technology restrictions of neoclassical production theory. The model can be estimated using standard econometric techniques, like GMM for dynamic panel data and latent factor analysis for the estimation of co-variance matrices. An explicit functional form for the utility function is not needed and we show how measures of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion) can be derived and estimated from the model. The model is estimated using data for Eurozone countries and we focus particularly on (i) the use of the modeling approach as an “early warning mechanism”, (ii) the bank- and country-specific estimates of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion), and (iii) the derivation of a generalized measure of risk that relies on loan-price uncertainty.

Keywords: financial stability, banking, expected utility maximization, sub-prime crisis, financial crisis, eurozone, PIIGS

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Authors: Ali Heydarimoghim

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In this paper, the optimal placement of charging and discharging stations is done to determine the location and capacity of the stations, reducing the cost of electric vehicle owners' losses, reducing the cost of distribution system losses, and reducing the costs associated with the stations. Also, observing the permissible limits of the bus voltage and the capacity of the stations and their distance are considered as constraints of the problem. Given the traffic situation in different areas of a city, we estimate the amount of energy required to charge and the amount of energy provided to discharge electric vehicles in each area. We then introduce the electricity distribution system of the city in question. Following are the scenarios for introducing the problem and introducing the objective and constraint functions. Finally, the simulation results for different scenarios are compared.

Keywords: charging & discharging stations, hybrid vehicles, optimization, replacement

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Authors: Matheus Müller, Delma Vidal

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The present paper aims to expose two techniques of dewatering for sludge, analyzing its operations and dewatering processes, aiming at improving the conditions of disposal of residues with high liquid content. It describes the field tests performed on two geotextile systems, a closed geotextile tube and an open geotextile drying bed, both of which are submitted to two filling cycles. The sludge used in the filling cycles for the field trials is from the water treatment plant of the Technological Center of Aeronautics – CTA, in São José dos Campos, Brazil. Data about volume and height abatement due to the dewatering and consolidation were collected per time, until it was observed constancy. With the laboratory analysis of the sludge allied to the data collected in the field, it was possible to perform a critical comparative study between the observed and the scientific literature, in this way, this paper expresses the data obtained and compares them with the bibliography. The tests were carried out on three fronts: field tests, including the filling cycles of the systems with the sludge from CTA, taking measurements of filling time per cycle and maximum filling height per cycle, heights against the abatement by dewatering of the systems over time; tests carried out in the laboratory, including the characterization of the sludge and removal of material samples from the systems to ascertain the solids content within the systems per time and; comparing the data obtained in the field and laboratory tests with the scientific literature. Through the study, it was possible to perceive that the process of densification of the material inside a closed system, such as the geotextile tube, occurs faster than the observed in the drying bed system. This process of accelerated densification can be brought about by the pumping pressure of the sludge in its filling and by the confinement of the residue through the permeable geotextile membrane (allowing water to pass through), accelerating the process of densification and dewatering by its own weight after the filling with sludge.

Keywords: consolidation, dewatering, geotextile drying bed, geotextile tube

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Authors: Bilge Afşar, Zeynep Karaçor, Burcu Guvenek

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The aim of this study is to examine and analyze the effect of macroeconomic policies on foreign trade. In the study, the effect of the macroeconomic policies applied in Turkey after 2001 on foreign trade was scrutinized carrying out a survey study in the sample of the province Konya. In the survey study, the survey was administered to a total of 209 exporter firms, which are the members of Konya Chamber of Commerce. While 51 of the firms, to which the survey was administered, exported below $ 100,000, 158 of them are the firms exporting above $ 100,000. Survey was realized in the way of face to face interview with the firms in the rate of 79%. 47% of the institutions forming the mass were reached. In forming survey questionnaire, in general, 5-point Likert scale was used. In order to assess the study results, SPSS 15 package program was utilized. In the survey, foreign trade activities of the firms in Konya were analyzed; and the problems they face, while performing foreign trade, and those needing to be carried out for increasing foreign trade volume of Konya were revealed by determining how and at what degree they were affected from the macroeconomic policies applied. Thus, foreign trade structure and state of the province Konya were attempted to be analyzed. In the survey study, it emerges that although the problems Konya faces in foreign trade overlap with the problems across Turkey, the province Konya seems to be affected relatively less from the last crisis with its equity capital in either trade or other areas. Until the year 2008, while Konya is in a position of the province continuously increasing its export, also with the effect of global crisis, in 2009, a fall was seen in the amount of export. The results emerging in the survey study also confirm this case. In parallel with demand inadequacy and recession all over the world, firms experience trouble. However, again according to our survey result, foreign market weight of firms shifted from EU countries to Russia, East Bloc, and Middle East countries. This prevented Konya from negative affecting from EU crisis at maximum level. That is, Russian and Middle East market express significance for Konya. That market is diversified, and being relatively rid of dependence to EU is extremely important in terms of Konya export.

Keywords: economy, foreign trade, economic crise, macro economic politicies

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Authors: Kunal Shah, Swati Patel

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Many real world problems involve data which can be considered as multi-label data streams. Efficient methods exist for multi-label classification in non streaming scenarios. However, learning in evolving streaming scenarios is more challenging, as the learners must be able to adapt to change using limited time and memory. Classification is used to predict class of unseen instance as accurate as possible. Multi label classification is a variant of single label classification where set of labels associated with single instance. Multi label classification is used by modern applications, such as text classification, functional genomics, image classification, music categorization etc. This paper introduces the task of multi-label classification, methods for multi-label classification and evolution measure for multi-label classification. Also, comparative analysis of multi label classification methods on the basis of theoretical study, and then on the basis of simulation was done on various data sets.

Keywords: binary relevance, concept drift, data stream mining, MLSC, multiple window with buffer

Procedia PDF Downloads 584

Authors: Maria Fatima Almeida, Rodrigo Calili, George Soares, João Krause, Myrthes Marcele Dos Santos, Anna Carolina Suzano E. Silva, Marcos Alexandre Da

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In Brazil, the building sector accounts for 1/6 of energy consumption and 50% of electricity consumption. A complex sector with several driving actors plays an essential role in the country's economy. Currently, the digitalization readiness in this sector is still low, mainly due to the high investment costs and the difficulty of estimating the benefits of digital technologies in buildings. Nevertheless, the potential contribution of digitalization for increasing energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil has been pointed out as relevant in the political and sectoral contexts, both in the medium and long-term horizons. To contribute to the debate on the possible evolving trajectories of digitalization in the building sector in Brazil and to subsidize the formulation or revision of current public policies and managerial decisions, three future scenarios were created to anticipate the potential energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil due to digitalization by 2050. This work aims to present these scenarios as a basis to foresight the potential energy efficiency in this sector, according to different digitalization paces - slow, moderate, or fast in the 2050 horizon. A methodological approach was proposed to create alternative prospective scenarios, combining the Global Business Network (GBN) and the Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective Strategy and Organisation (LIPSOR) methods. This approach consists of seven steps: (i) definition of the question to be foresighted and time horizon to be considered (2050); (ii) definition and classification of a set of key variables, using the prospective structural analysis; (iii) identification of the main actors with an active role in the digital and energy spheres; (iv) characterization of the current situation (2021) and identification of main uncertainties that were considered critical in the development of alternative future scenarios; (v) scanning possible futures using morphological analysis; (vi) selection and description of the most likely scenarios; (vii) foresighting the potential energy efficiency in each of the three scenarios, namely slow digitalization; moderate digitalization, and fast digitalization. Each scenario begins with a core logic and then encompasses potentially related elements, including potential energy efficiency. Then, the first scenario refers to digitalization at a slow pace, with induction by the government limited to public buildings. In the second scenario, digitalization is implemented at a moderate pace, induced by the government in public, commercial, and service buildings, through regulation integrating digitalization and energy efficiency mechanisms. Finally, in the third scenario, digitalization in the building sector is implemented at a fast pace in the country and is strongly induced by the government, but with broad participation of private investments and accelerated adoption of digital technologies. As a result of the slow pace of digitalization in the sector, the potential for energy efficiency stands at levels below 10% of the total of 161TWh by 2050. In the moderate digitalization scenario, the potential reaches 20 to 30% of the total 161TWh by 2050. Furthermore, in the rapid digitalization scenario, it will reach 30 to 40% of the total 161TWh by 2050.

Keywords: building digitalization, energy efficiency, scenario building, prospective structural analysis, morphological analysis

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Authors: Zane Bulderberga

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Spatial dimension in development planning is becoming more topical in 21st century as a result of changes in population structure. Sustainable spatial development focuses on identifying and using territorial advantages to foster the harmonized development of the entire country, reducing negative effects of population concentration, increasing availability and mobility. EU and national development planning documents state polycentrism as main tool for balance spatial development, including investment concentration in growth centres. If mutual cooperation of growth centres as well as urban-rural cooperation is not fostered, then territorial differences can deepen and create unbalanced development. The aim of research: to evaluate the urban-rural interaction, elaborating spatial development scenarios in framework of Latvian regional policy. To perform the research monographic, comparison, abstract-logical method, synthesis and analysis will be used when studying the theoretical aspects of research aiming at collecting the ideas of scientists from different countries, concepts, regulations as well as to create meaningful scientific discussion. Hierarchy analysis process (AHP) will be used to state further scenarios of spatial development in Latvia. Experts from various institutions recognized urban-rural interaction and co-operation as an essential tool for the development. The most important factors for balanced spatial development in Latvia are availability of public transportation and improvement of service availability. Evaluating the three alternative scenarios, it was concluded that the urban-rural partnership will ensure a balanced development in Latvian regions.

Keywords: rural-urban interaction, rural-urban cooperation, spatial development, AHP

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Authors: Byomakesh Debata, Jitendra Mahakud

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The recent financial crisis has been characterized by massive monetary policy interventions by the Central bank, and it has amplified the importance of liquidity for the stability of the stock market. This paper empirically elucidates the actual impact of monetary policy interventions on stock market liquidity covering all National Stock Exchange (NSE) Stocks, which have been traded continuously from 2002 to 2015. The present study employs a multivariate VAR model along with VAR-granger causality test, impulse response functions, block exogeneity test, and variance decomposition to analyze the direction as well as the magnitude of the relationship between monetary policy and market liquidity. Our analysis posits a unidirectional relationship between monetary policy (call money rate, base money growth rate) and aggregate market liquidity (traded value, turnover ratio, Amihud illiquidity ratio, turnover price impact, high-low spread). The impulse response function analysis clearly depicts the influence of monetary policy on stock liquidity for every unit innovation in monetary policy variables. Our results suggest that an expansionary monetary policy increases aggregate stock market liquidity and the reverse is documented during the tightening of monetary policy. To ascertain whether our findings are consistent across all periods, we divided the period of study as pre-crisis (2002 to 2007) and post-crisis period (2007-2015) and ran the same set of models. Interestingly, all liquidity variables are highly significant in the post-crisis period. However, the pre-crisis period has witnessed a moderate predictability of monetary policy. To check the robustness of our results we ran the same set of VAR models with different monetary policy variables and found the similar results. Unlike previous studies, we found most of the liquidity variables are significant throughout the sample period. This reveals the predictability of monetary policy on aggregate market liquidity. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by documenting a strong predictability of monetary policy on stock liquidity in an emerging economy with an order driven market making system like India. Most of the previous studies have been carried out in developing economies with quote driven or hybrid market making system and their results are ambiguous across different periods. From an eclectic sense, this study may be considered as a baseline study to further find out the macroeconomic determinants of liquidity of stocks at individual as well as aggregate level.

Keywords: market liquidity, monetary policy, order driven market, VAR, vector autoregressive model

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Authors: Raheel Asif, Michael Frommel

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This paper focuses on analyzing the exchange rate exposure of exporting & domestic firms in (the so far rarely addressed) largest Eastern European transition economies, i.e., Russia and the three EU accession countries, Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic (CEEC-3). It also controls for possible effects of different exchange rate regimes, Great Financial crisis (2007-08), Russian Financial crisis (2014-15), the formation of EU & turn of year effect. Substantially improving the results from the existing literature on these transition economies, we find for more than 51% of our sample firms in CEEC-3 countries and 29% in Russia shows a significant exchange rate exposure. However, the magnitude and direction of firms’ exposure depends on the particular bilateral exchange rate and differs between CEEC-3 and Russia. We find that share price increases with an appreciation of the domestic currency against the EURO and US Dollar (USD) in CEEC-3; however, the effect is more pronounced for EURO as expected. Whereas, for Russian firms share price increases with a depreciation of the domestic currency against the USD only. Those differences may result from a differing dominance of exposure channels in the respective economies, such as the country-specific export structure, competitiveness channels, and dependence on foreign debt. Finally, the switch from a pegged to a flexible exchange rate regime appears to have a less pronounced effect for the exchange rate exposure of firms in all countries except for USD in Poland and Russia.

Keywords: exchange rate exposure, transition economies, central and eastern Europe, international finance

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Authors: B. Nečasová, P. Liška, J. Šlanhof

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Verification of vented wooden façade system with bonded joints is presented in this paper. The potential of bonded joints is studied and described in more detail. The paper presents the results of an experimental and theoretical research about the effects of freeze cycling on the bonded joint. For the purpose of tests spruce timber profiles were chosen for the load bearing substructure. Planks from wooden plastic composite and Siberian larch are representing facade cladding. Two types of industrial polyurethane adhesives intended for structural bonding were selected. The article is focused on the preparation as well as on the subsequent curing and conditioning of test samples. All test samples were subjected to 15 cycles that represents sudden temperature changes, i.e. immersion in a water bath at (293.15 ± 3) K for 6 hours and subsequent freezing to (253.15 ± 2) K for 18 hours. Furthermore, the retention of bond strength between substructure and cladding was tested and strength in shear was determined under tensile stress. Research data indicate that little, if any, damage to the bond results from freezing cycles. Additionally, the suitability of selected group of adhesives in combination with timber substructure was confirmed.

Keywords: adhesive system, bonded joints, wooden lightweight façade, timber substructure

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Authors: Jiun-Horng Tsai, Shi-Jie, Nieh

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Fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) has become an important issue all over the world over the last decade. Annual mean PM₂.₅ concentration has been over the ambient air quality standard of PM₂.₅ (annual average concentration as 15μg/m³) which adapted by Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA). TEPA, therefore, has developed a number of air pollution control measures to improve the ambient concentration by reducing the emissions of primary fine particulate matter and the precursors of secondary PM₂.₅. This study investigated the potential improvement of ambient PM₂.₅ concentration by the TEPA program and the other scenario for further emission reduction on various sources. Four scenarios had been evaluated in this study, including a basic case and three reduction scenarios (A to C). The ambient PM₂.₅ concentration was evaluated by Community Multi-scale Air Quality modelling system (CMAQ) ver. 4.7.1 along with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) ver. 3.4.1. The grid resolutions in the modelling work are 81 km × 81 km for domain 1 (covers East Asia), 27 km × 27 km for domain 2 (covers Southeast China and Taiwan), and 9 km × 9 km for domain 3 (covers Taiwan). The result of PM₂.₅ concentration simulation in different regions of Taiwan shows that the annual average concentration of basic case is 24.9 μg/m³, and are 22.6, 18.8, and 11.3 μg/m³, respectively, for scenarios A to C. The annual average concentration of PM₂.₅ would be reduced by 9-55 % for those control scenarios. The result of scenario C (the emissions of precursors reduce to allowance levels) could improve effectively the airborne PM₂.₅ concentration to attain the air quality standard. According to the results of unit precursor reduction contribution, the allowance emissions of PM₂.₅, SOₓ, and NOₓ are 16.8, 39, and 62 thousand tons per year, respectively. In the Kao-Ping air basin, the priority for reducing precursor emissions is PM₂.₅ > NOₓ > SOₓ, whereas the priority for reducing precursor emissions is PM₂.₅ > SOₓ > NOₓ in others area. The result indicates that the target pollutants that need to be reduced in different air basin are different, and the control measures need to be adapted to local conditions.

Keywords: airborne PM₂.₅, community multi-scale air quality modelling system, control measures, weather research and forecasting model

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Authors: Wogu Ikedinachi Ayodele Power, Agbude Godwyns, Eniayekon Eugenia, Nchekwube Excellence-Oluye, Abasilim Ugochukwu David

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Contemporary ethicists and writers on leadership, in their quest to address the problem of leadership crisis in Nigeria, have identified the absence of practical prudence -which manifests in variables such as corruption, ethnicity and greed- as one of the major factors which breeds leadership crises. These variables are further fuelled by the lack of a consistent theory of leadership among scholars that could guide the pertinent actions of political leaders, hence the rising cases of leadership crises in the country. The theoretical framework that guides this study emanates from Aristotle’s notion of prudence as contained in the Nicomachean Ethics, which states that prudence is a central moral resource for political leaders. The method of conceptual analysis shall be used to clarify the concepts of virtue, prudence and leadership. The traditional method of critical analysis and the reconstructive method of ideas in philosophy are used to conceptually and contextually analyze all relevant texts and archival materials in the subject areas of this study. The study identifies a high degree of ideological bias and logical inconsistencies inherent in the theories of leadership proposed by the realist and the moralist schools of thought. The conflicting ideologies regarding what political leadership should be among scholars of leadership is identified as one of the major factors militating against ascertaining a practicable theory of leadership, which has the capacity to guide the pertinent actions of political leaders all over the world. This paper therefore identifies the absence of practical prudence, ‘wisdom’, as the major factor associated with leadership crises in Nigeria. We therefore argue that only prudent leaders will have the capacity to identify salient aspects of political situations which leaders have obligations to consider before making political decisions. Seven frameworks were prescribed from Aristotle’s Notion of prudence to strengthen this position, they include: Disciplined reason and openness to experience; Foresight and attention to the long term, among others. We submit that leadership devoid of crisis can be attained through the application of the virtue of prudence. Where this theory is adopted, it should eliminate further leadership crises in Nigeria.

Keywords: Aristotle, leadership crisis, political leadership, prudence

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Authors: Michele Romanello

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COVID-19 has spread rapidly in Brazil since March 2020, making the country one of the most affected in the world by the pandemic. From an economic point of view, Brazil came from a pre-pandemic period characterized by low or negative growth, with a resulting increase in the number of unemployed and informal workers. This paper considers lockdown implementation in the situation of the large presence of informality in the economy. The objective of the paper is to analyze how the country has tried to help workers affected by economic crisis after the implementation of measures against COVID-19 and whether the emergency assistance from the government has been adequate to contain the increase of informal workers and unemployed. The methodology used in this paper is survival analysis. Through this methodology, the formality – informality, and informality – unemployment transitions are analyzed. This analysis draws data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Continuous PNAD) and from the National Household Sample Survey COVID-19 (PNAD COVID-19) covering the period of January 2020 – July 2020. The results indicate that emergency aid has been not sufficient to reduce the transitions of workers from formal to informal jobs and from informal jobs to unemployment. Emergency aid has been not sufficient considering the previous situation of the country, with levels of poverty and inequality very high. In the next months, another fundamental determinant of the income trajectory in the context of the COVID-19 crisis will be the continuity of the emergency aid, especially considering the fiscal adjustment policy pursued by the government. Therefore, the current negative portrait may be even worse in the coming months.

Keywords: Brazil, COVID-19, informality, survival analysis

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Authors: Akshata Patel, Reenu Singh

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This paper focuses on current and upcoming fashion trends and global impact on the fashion industry due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has had a major impact on the fashion industry worldwide. At the same time, the fashion market also faces challenges in consumer demand. As the supply chain and distribution channels are interconnected, this outbreak has a global impact due to travel restrictions and raw materials shortages. Given that this particular period represents an unprecedented market situation with almost no prior research on how the industry will recover from such a crisis and mold back to its original form, this research aims to propose new possibilities by evaluating the framework of specific segments. Based on the analysis and extensive literature review, the study develops a conceptual model that will illustrate the various connections among the different segments of the fashion industry. The findings provide actionable considerations for fashion industry pupils when implementing appropriate strategies to prevent unfavourable outcomes during times of crisis, such as the COVID-19 outbreak.

Keywords: COVID-19, fashion industry, global impact, new possibilities, pandemic

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Authors: Joel Thomas, Alexa Squirini

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The key argument of this research is that every element of systems interoperability is an enabler of regional disaster resilience, and arguably should become a focal point for standardized measurement of communities’ ability to work together. Few resilience research efforts have focused on the development and application of solutions that measurably improve communities’ ability to work together at a regional level, yet a majority of the most devastating and disruptive disasters are those that have had a regional impact. The key findings of the research include a unique theoretical, mathematical, and operational approach to tangibly and defensibly measure and assess systems interoperability required to support crisis information management activities performed by governments, the private sector, and humanitarian organizations. A most effective way for communities to measurably improve regional disaster resilience is through deliberately executed disaster preparedness activities. Developing interoperable crisis information management capabilities is a crosscutting preparedness activity that greatly affects a community’s readiness and ability to work together in times of crisis. Thus, improving communities’ human and technical posture to work together in advance of a crisis, with the ultimate goal of enabling information sharing to support coordination and the careful management of available resources, is a primary means by which communities may improve regional disaster resilience. This model describes how systems interoperability can be qualitatively and quantitatively assessed when characterized as five forms of capital: governance; standard operating procedures; technology; training and exercises; and usage. The unique measurement framework presented defines the relationships between systems interoperability, information sharing and safeguarding, operational coordination, community preparedness and regional disaster resilience, and offers a means by which to implement real-world solutions and measure progress over the course of a multi-year program. The model is being developed and piloted in partnership with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Advanced Regional Civil Emergency Coordination Pilot (ARCECP) with twenty-three organizations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, and Montenegro. The intended effect of the model implementation is to enable communities to answer two key questions: 'Have we measurably improved crisis information management capabilities as a result of this effort?' and, 'As a result, are we more resilient?'

Keywords: disaster, interoperability, measurement, resilience

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Authors: Chia Han Lee

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Without energy, the economy would grind to a halt. Germany's prosperity and security depend on a reliable and affordable energy supply. In recent years, Germany's energy policy has undergone major changes. Due to the sharp turn in energy, Germany cannot extend the service of nuclear power plants and can only find a rapid transition energy source: natural gas for a limited time. This study attempts to use processes of decision entrapment behavior and document analysis to explain research questions. Through primary and secondary information such as official reports, parliamentary minutes, media interview records, and speech records, the author sorted out the important events experienced by the three coalition governments (Gerhard Schröder, Angela Merkel, and Olaf Scholz) and the relationship between Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 with primary and secondary sources. Also, compare it with the processes of decision entrapment behavior, which designed in this study, and divide it into four stages to explore its key elements one by one. In this regard, the following conclusions are drawn: First, from the perspective of processes of decision entrapment behavior, Merkel’s government firmly believes that she can overcome difficulties because of her past experience in crisis management capabilities. However, the outbreak of war between Ukraine and Russia was beyond Merkel's planning. Second, in the face of the crisis, the Scholz’s government increased the import of natural gas from other countries and began to import liquefied natural gas to make up for the energy gap of Russian natural gas.

Keywords: german research, nord stream gas pipeline, energy policy, processes of decision entrapment behavior

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Authors: Anjali Vanpariya, Priyanka Marathey, Sakshum Khanna, Roma Patel, Indrajit Mukhopadhyay

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Silicon (Si) is a promising negative electrode material for lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) due to its low cost, non-toxicity, and a high theoretical capacity of 4200 mAhg⁻¹. The primary challenge of the application of Si-based LiBs is large volume expansion (~ 300%) during the charge-discharge process. Incorporation of graphene, carbon nanotubes (CNTs), morphological control, and nanoparticles was utilized as effective strategies to tackle volume expansion issues. However, molten salt methods can resolve the issue, but high-temperature requirement limits its application. For sustainable and practical approach, room temperature (RT) based methods are essentially required. Use of ionic liquids (ILs) for electrodeposition of Si nanostructures can possibly resolve the issue of temperature as well as greener media. In this work, electrodeposition of Si nanoparticles on gold substrate was successfully carried out in the presence of ILs media, 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium-bis (trifluoromethyl sulfonyl) imide (BMImTf₂N) at room temperature. Cyclic voltammetry (CV) suggests the sequential reduction of Si⁴⁺ to Si²⁺ and then Si nanoparticles (SiNs). The structure and morphology of the electrodeposited SiNs were investigated by FE-SEM and observed interconnected Si nanoparticles of average particle size ⁓100-200 nm. XRD and XPS data confirm the deposition of Si on Au (111). The first discharge-charge capacity of Si anode material has been found to be 1857 and 422 mAhg⁻¹, respectively, at current density 7.8 Ag⁻¹. The irreversible capacity of the first discharge-charge process can be attributed to the solid electrolyte interface (SEI) formation via electrolyte decomposition, and trapped Li⁺ inserted into the inner pores of Si. Pulverization of SiNs results in the creation of a new active site, which facilitates the formation of new SEI in the subsequent cycles leading to fading in a specific capacity. After 20 cycles, charge-discharge profiles have been stabilized, and a reversible capacity of 150 mAhg⁻¹ is retained. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data shows the decrease in Rct value from 94.7 to 47.6 kΩ after 50 cycles of charge-discharge, which demonstrates the improvements of the interfacial charge transfer kinetics. The decrease in the Warburg impedance after 50 cycles of charge-discharge measurements indicates facile diffusion in fragmented and smaller Si nanoparticles. In summary, Si nanoparticles deposited on gold substrate using ILs as media and characterized well with different analytical techniques. Synthesized material was successfully utilized for LiBs application, which is well supported by CV and EIS data.

Keywords: silicon nanoparticles, ionic liquid, electrodeposition, cyclic voltammetry, Li-ion battery

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Authors: Balwinder Singh, Veerpaul Kaur Mann

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The COVID-19 had a dramatic impact on several countries across the world. National governments have imposed widespread restrictions to prevent the growth of this pandemic. The new health competitive scenario induced by the COVID-19 crisis raised many issues on how business activities should be reorganized due to the difficulties of physical interactions with distributors, suppliers and customers. The pandemic has particularly affected the whole marketing processes because of the relevant issues emerged in managing physical sale channels and interactions with one another, both in the Business-to-Consumer and in the Business-to-Business markets. Recent research about the appropriate actions and strategies that could help firms overcome the crisis has highlighted the key role of digital technologies that may ensure connections and, thus, help business activities to run smoothly. This could be true, especially with the emergence of strong limitations on physical interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. In such a scenario, the online channel becomes the most important conducive for online customers to get in contact with the firm and carry out online purchasing activities.

Keywords: COVID-19, business, digital marketing, online customers

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Authors: Chiara Cesali

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The effects of climate change are increasingly evident: increases in temperature (i.e. global warming), greater frequency of extreme weather events, i.e. storms, floods, which often affect transport infrastructures. Large-scale climatological models with long-term horizons (up to 2100) show the possibility of significant increases in precipitation in the future, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from IPCC. Consequently, the insufficiency of existing hydraulic works (i.e. bridges, culverts, drainage systems) may be more frequent, or those currently being designed may become insufficient in the future. Thus, the hydraulic design methods of transport infrastructure must begin to take into account the influence of climate change. To this purpose, criteria for applying to the hydraulic design of a railway infrastructure some of the approaches currently available for determining design rainfall intensity and/or peak discharge flow on the basis of possible climate change scenarios are defined and proposed in the paper. Some application cases are also described.

Keywords: climate change, hydraulic design, precipitation, railway

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Authors: Stehr Melanie

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The availability of apposite information is essential for the decision-making process of organizational buyers. Due to the constraints of the Covid-19 crisis, information channels that emphasize face-to-face contact (e.g. sales visits, trade shows) have been unavailable, and usage of digitally-driven information channels (e.g. videoconferencing, platforms) has skyrocketed. This paper explores the question in which areas the pandemic induced shift in the use of information channels could be sustainable and in which areas it is a temporary phenomenon. While information and buying behavior in B2C purchases has been regularly studied in the last decade, the last fundamental model of organizational buying behavior in B2B was introduced by Johnston and Lewin (1996) in times before the advent of the internet. Subsequently, research efforts in B2B marketing shifted from organizational buyers and their decision and information behavior to the business relationships between sellers and buyers. This study builds on the extensive literature on situational factors influencing organizational buying and information behavior and uses the economics of information theory as a theoretical framework. The research focuses on the German woodworking industry, which before the Covid-19 crisis was characterized by a rather low level of digitization of information channels. By focusing on an industry with traditional communication structures, a shift in information behavior induced by an exogenous shock is considered a ripe research setting. The study is exploratory in nature. The primary data source is 40 in-depth interviews based on the repertory-grid method. Thus, 120 typical buying situations in the woodworking industry and the information and channels relevant to them are identified. The results are combined into clusters, each of which shows similar information behavior in the procurement process. In the next step, the clusters are analyzed in terms of the post and pre-Covid-19 crisis’ behavior identifying stable and dynamic information behavior aspects. Initial results show that, for example, clusters representing search goods with low risk and complexity suggest a sustainable rise in the use of digitally-driven information channels. However, in clusters containing trust goods with high significance and novelty, an increased return to face-to-face information channels can be expected after the Covid-19 crisis. The results are interesting from both a scientific and a practical point of view. This study is one of the first to apply the economics of information theory to organizational buyers and their decision and information behavior in the digital information age. Especially the focus on the dynamic aspects of information behavior after an exogenous shock might contribute new impulses to theoretical debates related to the economics of information theory. For practitioners - especially suppliers’ marketing managers and intermediaries such as publishers or trade show organizers from the woodworking industry - the study shows wide-ranging starting points for a future-oriented segmentation of their marketing program by highlighting the dynamic and stable preferences of elaborated clusters in the choice of their information channels.

Keywords: B2B buying process, crisis, economics of information theory, information channel

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Authors: Anand Choudhary

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Following the global economic crisis in 2008, businesses and more especially the big multinational conglomerates were increasingly viewed by the people world over as one of the major causes of the economic problems faced by millions globally, in terms of job loss and lifetime savings being wiped out as banks and pension funds went bankrupt and people stared at an insecure financial future. This caused a lot of resentment in the public against big businesses and fueled several protest movements by the people such as “Occupy Wall Street” in different parts of the world. This forced the big businesses to respond to the challenge by adopting more people-centric policies and initiatives for local communities in societies where they operate as part of their corporate social responsibility (CSR), in order to regain their social acceptance among the people whilst earning their ‘social license to operate’. The current paper studies many of such large MNCs across the United States of America, India and South Africa, which changed the way they did business earlier, following the global economic crisis in 2008, by incorporating capacity building initiatives for local communities as part of their CSR strategy and explores whether it has contributed to improving their financial performance. It is a conceptual research paper using secondary source data. The findings reveal that there is a positive correlation between the companies’ corporate social performance and corporate financial performance. In addition, the findings also bring to light that the MNCs examined as part of the current paper have improved their image in the eyes of their stakeholders following the change in their CSR strategy and initiatives.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility (CSR), Corporate Social Performance (CSP), Corporate Financial Performance (CFP), local communities

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