Search results for: ordered statistical

Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Water scarcity is a pressing issue in urban areas, even in smart cities where efficient resource management is a priority. This scarcity is mainly caused by factors such as lifestyle changes, excessive groundwater extraction, over-usage of water, rapid urbanization, and uncontrolled population growth. In the specific case of Gomti Nagar, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India, the depletion of groundwater resources is particularly severe, leading to a water imbalance and posing a significant challenge for the region's sustainable development. The aim of this study is to address the water shortage in the Gomti Nagar region by focusing on the implementation of artificial groundwater recharge methods. Specifically, the research aims to investigate the effectiveness of rainwater collection through rooftop rainwater harvesting systems (RTRWHs) as a sustainable approach to reduce aquifer depletion and bridge the gap between groundwater recharge and extraction. The research methodology for this study involves the utilization of RTRWHs as the main method for collecting rainwater. This approach is considered effective in managing and conserving water resources in a sustainable manner. The focus is on implementing RTRWHs in residential and commercial buildings to maximize the collection of rainwater and its subsequent utilization for various purposes in the Gomti Nagar region. The study reveals that the installation of RTRWHs in the Gomti Nagar region has a positive impact on addressing the water scarcity issue. Currently, RTRWHs cover only a small percentage (0.04%) of the total rainfall collected in the region. However, when RTRWHs are installed in all buildings, their influence on increasing water availability and reducing aquifer depletion will be significantly greater. The study also highlights the significant water imbalance of 24519 ML/yr in the region, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable water management practices. This research contributes to the theoretical understanding of sustainable water management systems in smart cities. By highlighting the effectiveness of RTRWHs in reducing aquifer depletion, it emphasizes the importance of implementing such systems in urban areas. The findings of this study can serve as a basis for policymakers, urban planners, and developers to prioritize and incentivize the installation of RTRWHs as a potential solution to the water shortage crisis. The data for this study were collected through various sources such as government reports, surveys, and existing groundwater abstraction patterns. The collected data were then analysed to assess the current water situation, groundwater depletion rate, and the potential impact of implementing RTRWHs. Statistical analysis and modelling techniques were employed to quantify the water imbalance and evaluate the effectiveness of RTRWHs. The findings of this study demonstrate that the implementation of RTRWHs can effectively mitigate the water scarcity crisis in Gomti Nagar. By reducing aquifer depletion and bridging the gap between groundwater recharge and extraction, RTRWHs offer a sustainable solution to the region's water scarcity challenges. The study highlights the need for widespread adoption of RTRWHs in all buildings and emphasizes the importance of integrating such systems into the urban planning and development process. By doing so, smart cities like Gomti Nagar can achieve efficient water management, ensuring a better future with improved water availability for its residents.

Keywords: rooftop rainwater harvesting, rainwater, water management, aquifer

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Sevelina Ndlovu

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Financial Technology (fintech) advancement is recognised as one of the most transformational innovations in the financial industry. Fintech has given rise to internet-only digital banking, a novel financial technology advancement, and innovation that allows banking services through internet applications with no need for physical branches. This technology is becoming a new banking normal among consumers for its ubiquitous and real-time access advantages. There is evident switching and migration from traditional banking towards these fintech facilities, which could possibly pose a systemic risk if not properly understood and monitored. Fintech advancement has also brought about the emergence and escalation of financial technology consumption themes such as trust, security, perceived risk, and sustainability within the banking industry, themes scarcely covered in existing theoretic literature. To that end, the objective of this research is to investigate factors that determine fintech adoption and propose an integrated adoption model. This study aims to establish what the significant drivers of adoption are and develop a conceptual model that integrates technological, behavioral, and environmental constructs by extending the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology 2 (UTAUT2). It proposes integrating constructs that influence financial consumption themes such as trust, perceived risk, security, financial incentives, micro-investing opportunities, and environmental consciousness to determine the impact of these factors on the adoption and intention to use digital banking apps. The main advantage of this conceptual model is the consolidation of a greater number of predictor variables that can provide a fuller explanation of the consumer's adoption of digital banking Apps. Moderating variables of age, gender, and income are incorporated. To the best of author’s knowledge, this study is the first that extends the UTAUT2 model with this combination of constructs to investigate user’s intention to adopt internet-only digital banking apps in the UK context. By investigating factors that are not included in the existing theories but are highly pertinent to the adoption of internet-only banking services, this research adds to existing knowledge and extends the generalisability of the UTAUT2 in a financial services adoption context. This is something that fills a gap in knowledge, as highlighted to needing further research on UTAUT2 after reviewing the theory in 2016 from its original version of 2003. To achieve the objectives of this study, this research assumes a quantitative research approach to empirically test the hypotheses derived from existing literature and pilot studies to give statistical support to generalise the research findings for further possible applications in theory and practice. This research is explanatory or casual in nature and uses cross-section primary data collected through a survey method. Convenient and purposive sampling using structured self-administered online questionnaires is used for data collection. The proposed model is tested using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), and the analysis of primary data collected through an online survey is processed using Smart PLS software with a sample size of 386 digital bank users. The results are expected to establish if there are significant relationships between the dependent and independent variables and establish what the most influencing factors are.

Keywords: banking applications, digital banking, financial technology, technology adoption, UTAUT2

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Sini George

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Active learning pedagogies are valued for their success in increasing 21st-century learners’ engagement, developing transferable skills like critical thinking or quantitative reasoning, and creating deeper and more lasting educational gains. 'Blended learning' is an active learning pedagogical approach in which direct instruction moves from the group learning space to the individual learning space, and the resulting group space is transformed into a dynamic, interactive learning environment where the educator guides students as they apply concepts and engage creatively in the subject matter. This project aimed to develop a blended learning instructional approach to teaching concepts around pharmaceutical calculations to year 1 pharmacy students. The wrong dose, strength or frequency of a medication accounts for almost a third of medication errors in the NHS therefore, progression to year 2 requires a 70% pass in this calculation test, in addition to the standard progression requirements. Many students were struggling to achieve this requirement in the past. It was also challenging to teach these concepts to students of a large class (> 130) with mixed mathematical abilities, especially within a traditional didactic lecture format. Therefore, short screencasts with voice-over of the lecturer were provided in advance of a total of four teaching sessions (two hours/session), incorporating core content of each session and talking through how they approached the calculations to model metacognition. Links to the screencasts were posted on the learning management. Viewership counts were used to determine that the students were indeed accessing and watching the screencasts on schedule. In the classroom, students had to apply the knowledge learned beforehand to a series of increasingly difficult set of questions. Students were then asked to create a question in group settings (two students/group) and to discuss the questions created by their peers in their groups to promote deep conceptual learning. Students were also given time for question-and-answer period to seek clarifications on the concepts covered. Student response to this instructional approach and their test grades were collected. After collecting and organizing the data, statistical analysis was carried out to calculate binomial statistics for the two data sets: the test grade for students who received blended learning instruction and the test grades for students who received instruction in a standard lecture format in class, to compare the effectiveness of each type of instruction. Student response and their performance data on the assessment indicate that the learning of content in the blended learning instructional approach led to higher levels of student engagement, satisfaction, and more substantial learning gains. The blended learning approach enabled each student to learn how to do calculations at their own pace freeing class time for interactive application of this knowledge. Although time-consuming for an instructor to implement, the findings of this research demonstrate that the blended learning instructional approach improves student academic outcomes and represents a valuable method to incorporate active learning methodologies while still maintaining broad content coverage. Satisfaction with this approach was high, and we are currently developing more pharmacy content for delivery in this format.

Keywords: active learning, blended learning, deep conceptual learning, instructional approach, metacognition, pharmaceutical calculations

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Mohamed Emran, Giovanni Pardini, Maria Gispert, Mohamed Rashad

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Land use and abandonment in semi-arid degraded ecosystems may cause regressive dynamics in vegetation cover affecting organic matter contents, soil nutrients and structural stability, thus reducing soil resistance to erosion. Mediterranean areas are generally subjected to climatic fluctuations, which modify soil conditions and hydrological processes, such as runoff and water infiltration within the upper soil horizons. Low erosion rates occur in very fragile and shallow soils with minor clay content progressively decrease organic carbon C and nitrogen N pools in the upper soil horizons. Seven soils were selected representing variant context of land use and abandonment at the Cap de Creus Peninsula, Catalonia, NE Spain, from recent cultivated vines and olive groves, mid abandoned forests standing under cork and pine trees, pasture to late abandoned Cistus and Erica scrubs. The aim of this work was to study the effect of changes in land use and abandonment on the depletion of soil organic carbon and nitrogen transported by runoff water in shallow soils after natural rainfall events during two years with different rainfall patterns (1st year with low rainfall and 2nd year with high rainfall) by i) monitoring the most significant soil erosion parameters at recorded rainfall events, ii) studying the most relevant soil physical and chemical characteristics on seasonal basis and iii) analysing the seasonal trends of depleted carbon and nitrogen and their interaction with soil surface compaction parameters. Significant seasonal variability was observed in the relevant soil physical and chemical parameters and soil erosion parameters in all soils to establish their evolution under land use and abandonment during two years of different rainfall patterns (214 and 487 mm per year), giving important indications on soil response to rainfall impacts. Erosion rates decreased significantly with the increasing of soil C and N under low and high rainfall. In cultivated soils, C and N depletion increased by 144% and 115%, respectively by 13% increase in erosion rates during the 1st year with respect to the 2nd year. Depleted C and N were proportionally higher in soils under vines and olive with vulnerable soil structure and low soil resilience leading to degradation, altering nutrients cycles and causing adverse impact on environmental quality. Statistical analysis underlined that, during the 1st year, soil surface was less effective in preserving stocks of organic resources leading to higher susceptibility to erosion with consequent C and N depletion. During the 2nd year, higher organic reserve and water storage occurred despite the increasing of C and N loss with an effective contribution from soil surface compaction parameters. The overall estimation during the two years indicated clear differences among soils under vines, olive, cork and pines, suggesting on the one hand, that current cultivation practices are inappropriate and that reforestation with pines may delay the achievement of better soil conditions. On the other hand, the natural succession of vegetation under Cistus, pasture and Erica suggests the recovery of good soil conditions.

Keywords: land abandonment, land use, nutrient's depletion, soil erosion

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Yogesh Kumar Singh, T. S. Murugesh Prabhu, Upasana Dutta, Girishchandra Yendargaye, Rahul Yadav, Rohini Gopinath Kale, Binay Kumar, Manoj Khare

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The Indian subcontinent is severely affected by floods that cause intense irreversible devastation to crops and livelihoods. With increased incidences of floods and their related catastrophes, an Early Warning System for Flood Prediction and an efficient Flood Management System for the river basins of India is a must. Accurately modeled hydrological conditions and a web-based early warning system may significantly reduce economic losses incurred due to floods and enable end users to issue advisories with better lead time. This study describes the design and development of an EWS-FP using advanced computational tools/methods, viz. High-Performance Computing (HPC), Remote Sensing, GIS technologies, and open-source tools for the Mahanadi River Basin of India. The flood prediction is based on a robust 2D hydrodynamic model, which solves shallow water equations using the finite volume method. Considering the complexity of the hydrological modeling and the size of the basins in India, it is always a tug of war between better forecast lead time and optimal resolution at which the simulations are to be run. High-performance computing technology provides a good computational means to overcome this issue for the construction of national-level or basin-level flash flood warning systems having a high resolution at local-level warning analysis with a better lead time. High-performance computers with capacities at the order of teraflops and petaflops prove useful while running simulations on such big areas at optimum resolutions. In this study, a free and open-source, HPC-based 2-D hydrodynamic model, with the capability to simulate rainfall run-off, river routing, and tidal forcing, is used. The model was tested for a part of the Mahanadi River Basin (Mahanadi Delta) with actual and predicted discharge, rainfall, and tide data. The simulation time was reduced from 8 hrs to 3 hrs by increasing CPU nodes from 45 to 135, which shows good scalability and performance enhancement. The simulated flood inundation spread and stage were compared with SAR data and CWC Observed Gauge data, respectively. The system shows good accuracy and better lead time suitable for flood forecasting in near-real-time. To disseminate warning to the end user, a network-enabled solution is developed using open-source software. The system has query-based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. System effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to floods, like displaying spatial maps of the area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of the damage.

Keywords: flood, modeling, HPC, FOSS

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Rijnbout-St.James Willem, Lindner Volkhard, Scholand Mary Beth, Ashton M. Tillett, Di Gennaro Michael Jude, Smith Silvia Enrica

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Introduction: Fibrosing lung diseases are characterized by changes in the lung interstitium and are classified based on etiology: 1) environmental/exposure-related, 2) autoimmune-related, 3) sarcoidosis, 4) interstitial pneumonia, and 4) idiopathic. Among interstitial lung diseases (ILD) idiopathic forms, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is the most severe. Pathogenesis of IPF is characterized by an increased presence of proinflammatory mediators, resulting in alveolar injury, where injury to alveolar epithelium precipitates an increase in collagen deposition, subsequently thickening the alveolar septum and decreasing gas exchange. Identifying biomarkers implicated in the pathogenesis of lung fibrosis is key to developing new therapies and improving the efficacy of existing therapies. The transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-B1), a mediator of tissue repair associated with WNT5A signaling, is partially responsible for fibroblast proliferation in ILD and is the target of Pirfenidone, one of the antifibrotic therapies used for patients with IPF. Canonical TGF-B signaling is mediated by the proteins SMAD 2/3, which are, in turn, indirectly regulated by Collagen Triple Helix Repeat Containing 1 (CTHRC1). In this study, we tested the following hypotheses: 1) CTHRC1 is more elevated in the ILD cohort compared to unaffected controls, and 2) CTHRC1 is differently expressed among ILD types. Material and Methods: CTHRC1 levels were measured by ELISA in 171 plasma samples from the deidentified University of Utah ILD cohort. Data represent a cohort of 131 ILD-affected participants and 40 unaffected controls. CTHRC1 samples were categorized by a pulmonologist based on affectation status and disease subtypes: IPF (n = 45), sarcoidosis (4), nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (16), hypersensitivity pneumonitis (n = 7), interstitial pneumonia (n=13), autoimmune (n = 15), other ILD - a category that includes undifferentiated ILD diagnoses (n = 31), and unaffected controls (n = 40). We conducted a single-factor ANOVA of plasma CTHRC1 levels to test whether CTHRC1 variance among affected and non-affected participants is statistically significantly different. In-silico analysis was performed with Ingenuity Pathway Analysis® to characterize the role of CTHRC1 in the pathway of lung fibrosis. Results: Statistical analyses of CTHRC1 in plasma samples indicate that the average CTHRC1 level is significantly higher in ILD-affected participants than controls, with the autoimmune ILD being higher than other ILD types, thus supporting our hypotheses. In-silico analyses show that CTHRC1 indirectly activates and phosphorylates SMAD3, which in turn cross-regulates TGF-B1. CTHRC1 also may regulate the expression and transcription of TGFB-1 via WNT5A and its regulatory relationship with CTNNB1. Conclusion: In-silico pathway analyses demonstrate that CTHRC1 may be an important biomarker in ILD. Analysis of plasma samples indicates that CTHRC1 expression is positively associated with ILD affectation, with autoimmune ILD having the highest average CTHRC1 values. While characterizing CTHRC1 levels in plasma can help to differentiate among ILD types and predict response to Pirfenidone, the extent to which plasma CTHRC1 level is a function of ILD severity or chronicity is unknown.

Keywords: interstitial lung disease, CTHRC1, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, pathway analyses

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Margarida Soares, Zlatina Genisheva, Lucas Nascimento, André Ribeiro, Tiago Miranda, Eduardo Pereira, Joana Carvalho

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In the current global context, we face a significant challenge: the rapid population increase combined with the pressing need for sustainable management of agro-industrial waste. Beyond understanding how population growth impacts waste generation, it is essential to first identify the primary types of waste produced and the countries responsible to guide targeted actions. This study presents key statistical data on waste production from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors across the European Union, alongside information on the agricultural areas dedicated to crop production in each European Union country. These insights will form the basis for future research into waste production by crop type and country to improve waste management practices and promote recovery methods that are vital for environmental sustainability. The agricultural sector must stay at the forefront of scientific and technological advancements to meet climate change challenges, protect the environment, and ensure food and health security. The study's findings indicate that population growth significantly increases pressure on natural resources, leading to a rise in agro-industrial waste production. EUROSTAT data shows that, in 2020, the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors produced over 21 million tons of waste. Spain emerged as the largest producer, contributing nearly 30% of the EU's total waste in these sectors. Furthermore, five countries—Spain, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, and Germany—were responsible for producing more than two-thirds of the waste from these sectors. Regarding agricultural land use, the data for 2020 revealed that around two-thirds of the total agricultural area was concentrated in six countries: France, Spain, Germany, Poland, Romania, and Italy. Regarding waste production per capita, the Netherlands had the highest figures in the EU for 2020. The data presented in this study highlights the urgent need for action in managing agricultural waste in the EU. As population growth continues to drive up demand for agricultural products, waste generation will inevitably rise unless significant changes are made in managing of agro-industrial waste. The countries must lead the way in adopting technological waste management strategies that focus on reducing, reusing, and recycling waste to benefit both the environment and society. Equally important is the need to promote collaborative efforts between governments, industries, and research institutions to develop and implement technologies that transform waste into valuable resources. The insights from this study are critical for informing future strategies to improve the management and valorization of waste from the agro-industrial sector. One of the most promising approaches is adopting circular economy principles to create closed-loop systems that minimize environmental impacts. By rethinking waste as a valuable resource rather than a by-product, agricultural industries can contribute to more sustainable practices that support both environmental health and economic growth.

Keywords: agricultural area, agricultural waste, circular economy, environmental challenges, population growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 13

Authors: Miguel Chen Austin, Denis Bruneau, Alain Sempey, Laurent Mora, Alain Sommier

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An experimental study in a Plus Energy House (PEH) prototype was conducted in August 2016. It aimed to highlight the energy charge and discharge of a concrete-slab floor submitted to the day-night-cycles heat exchanges in the southwestern part of France and to identify the heat transfer phenomena that take place in both processes: charge and discharge. The main features of this PEH, significant to this study, are the following: (i) a non-active slab covering the major part of the entire floor surface of the house, which include a concrete layer 68 mm thick as upper layer; (ii) solar window shades located on the north and south facades along with a large eave facing south, (iii) large double-glazed windows covering the majority of the south facade, (iv) a natural ventilation system (NVS) composed by ten automatized openings with different dimensions: four are located on the south facade, four on the north facade and two on the shed roof (north-oriented). To highlight the energy charge and discharge processes of the non-active slab, heat flux and temperature measurement techniques were implemented, along with airspeed measurements. Ten “measurement-poles” (MP) were distributed all over the concrete-floor surface. Each MP represented a zone of measurement, where air and surface temperatures, and convection and radiation heat fluxes, were intended to be measured. The airspeed was measured only at two points over the slab surface, near the south facade. To identify the heat transfer phenomena that take part in the charge and discharge process, some relevant dimensionless parameters were used, along with statistical analysis; heat transfer phenomena were identified based on this analysis. Experimental data, after processing, had shown that two periods could be identified at a glance: charge (heat gain, positive values) and discharge (heat losses, negative values). During the charge period, on the floor surface, radiation heat exchanges were significantly higher compared with convection. On the other hand, convection heat exchanges were significantly higher than radiation, in the discharge period. Spatially, both, convection and radiation heat exchanges are higher near the natural ventilation openings and smaller far from them, as expected. Experimental correlations have been determined using a linear regression model, showing the relation between the Nusselt number with relevant parameters: Peclet, Rayleigh, and Richardson numbers. This has led to the determination of the convective heat transfer coefficient and its comparison with the convective heat coefficient resulting from measurements. Results have shown that forced and natural convection coexists during the discharge period; more accurate correlations with the Peclet number than with the Rayleigh number, have been found. This may suggest that forced convection is stronger than natural convection. Yet, airspeed levels encountered suggest that it is natural convection that should take place rather than forced convection. Despite this, Richardson number values encountered indicate otherwise. During the charge period, air-velocity levels might indicate that none air motion occurs, which might lead to heat transfer by diffusion instead of convection.

Keywords: heat flux measurement, natural ventilation, non-active concrete slab, plus energy house

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: Bianca Peterson, Tomasz J. Sańko, Carlos C. Bezuidenhout, Johnnie Van Den Berg

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Busseola fusca (Fuller) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), the maize stem borer, is a major pest in sub-Saharan Africa. It causes economic damage to maize and sorghum crops and has evolved non-recessive resistance to genetically modified (GM) maize expressing the Cry1Ab insecticidal toxin. Since B. fusca is a non-model organism, very little genomic information is publicly available, and is limited to some cytochrome c oxidase I, cytochrome b, and microsatellite data. The biology of B. fusca is well-described, but still poorly understood. This, in combination with its larval-specific behavior, may pose problems for limiting the spread of current resistant B. fusca populations or preventing resistance evolution in other susceptible populations. As part of on-going research into resistance evolution, B. fusca larvae were collected from Bt and non-Bt maize in South Africa, followed by RNA isolation (15 specimens) and sequencing on the Illumina HiSeq 2500 platform. Quality of reads was assessed with FastQC, after which Trimmomatic was used to trim adapters and remove low quality, short reads. Trinity was used for the de novo assembly, whereas TransRate was used for assembly quality assessment. Transcript identification employed BLAST (BLASTn, BLASTp, and tBLASTx comparisons), for which two libraries (nucleotide and protein) were created from 3.27 million lepidopteran sequences. Several transcripts that have previously been implicated in Cry toxin resistance was identified for B. fusca. These included aminopeptidase N, cadherin, alkaline phosphatase, ATP-binding cassette transporter proteins, and mitogen-activated protein kinase. MEGA7 was used to align these transcripts to reference sequences from Lepidoptera to detect mutations that might potentially be contributing to Cry toxin resistance in this pest. RSEM and Bioconductor were used to perform differential gene expression analysis on groups of B. fusca larvae challenged and unchallenged with the Cry1Ab toxin. Pairwise expression comparisons of transcripts that were at least 16-fold expressed at a false-discovery corrected statistical significance (p) ≤ 0.001 were extracted and visualized in a hierarchically clustered heatmap using R. A total of 329,194 transcripts with an N50 of 1,019 bp were generated from the over 167.5 million high-quality paired-end reads. Furthermore, 110 transcripts were over 10 kbp long, of which the largest one was 29,395 bp. BLAST comparisons resulted in identification of 157,099 (47.72%) transcripts, among which only 3,718 (2.37%) were identified as Cry toxin receptors from lepidopteran insects. According to transcript expression profiles, transcripts were grouped into three subclusters according to the similarity of their expression patterns. Several immune-related transcripts (pathogen recognition receptors, antimicrobial peptides, and inhibitors) were up-regulated in the larvae feeding on Bt maize, indicating an enhanced immune status in response to toxin exposure. Above all, extremely up-regulated arylphorin genes suggest that enhanced epithelial healing is one of the resistance mechanisms employed by B. fusca larvae against the Cry1Ab toxin. This study is the first to provide a resource base and some insights into a potential mechanism of Cry1Ab toxin resistance in B. fusca. Transcriptomic data generated in this study allows identification of genes that can be targeted by biotechnological improvements of GM crops.

Keywords: epithelial healing, Lepidoptera, resistance, transcriptome

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Authors: Fadi Al Khatib, Raouf Mbarki, Malek Adouni

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In various sport and recreational activities, the patellofemoral joint undergoes large forces and moments while accommodating the significant knee joint movement. In doing so, this joint is commonly the source of anterior knee pain related to instability in normal patellar tracking and excessive pressure syndrome. One well-observed explanation of the instability of the normal patellar tracking is the patellofemoral ligaments and patellar tendon damage. Improved knowledge of the damage mechanism mediating ligaments and tendon injuries can be a great help not only in rehabilitation and prevention procedures but also in the design of better reconstruction systems in the management of knee joint disorders. This damage mechanism, specifically due to excessive mechanical loading, has been linked to the micro level of the fibred structure precisely to the tropocollagen molecules and their connection density. We argue defining a clear frame starting from the bottom (micro level) to up (macro level) in the hierarchies of the soft tissue may elucidate the essential underpinning on the state of the ligaments damage. To do so, in this study a multiscale fibril reinforced hyper elastoplastic Finite Element model that accounts for the synergy between molecular and continuum syntheses was developed to determine the short-term stresses/strains patellofemoral ligaments and tendon response. The plasticity of the proposed model is associated only with the uniaxial deformation of the collagen fibril. The yield strength of the fibril is a function of the cross-link density between tropocollagen molecules, defined here by a density function. This function obtained through a Coarse-graining procedure linking nanoscale collagen features and the tissue level materials properties using molecular dynamics simulations. The hierarchies of the soft tissues were implemented using the rule of mixtures. Thereafter, the model was calibrated using a statistical calibration procedure. The model then implemented into a real structure of patellofemoral ligaments and patellar tendon (OpenKnee) and simulated under realistic loading conditions. With the calibrated material parameters the calculated axial stress lies well with the experimental measurement with a coefficient of determination (R2) equal to 0.91 and 0.92 for the patellofemoral ligaments and the patellar tendon respectively. The ‘best’ prediction of the yielding strength and strain as compared with the reported experimental data yielded when the cross-link density between the tropocollagen molecule of the fibril equal to 5.5 ± 0.5 (patellofemoral ligaments) and 12 (patellar tendon). Damage initiation of the patellofemoral ligaments was located at the femoral insertions while the damage of the patellar tendon happened in the middle of the structure. These predicted finding showed a meaningful correlation between the cross-link density of the tropocollagen molecules and the stiffness of the connective tissues of the extensor mechanism. Also, damage initiation and propagation were documented with this model, which were in satisfactory agreement with earlier observation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model ligaments from the bottom up, predicted depending to the tropocollagen cross-link density. This approach appears more meaningful towards a realistic simulation of a damaging process or repair attempt compared with certain published studies.

Keywords: tropocollagen, multiscale model, fibrils, knee ligaments

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Caspar Goeke, Holger Finger, Dorena Diekamp, Peter König

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Online-based research has recently gained increasing attention from various fields of research in the cognitive sciences. Technological advances in the form of online crowdsourcing (Amazon Mechanical Turk), open data repositories (Open Science Framework), and online analysis (Ipython notebook) offer rich possibilities to improve, validate, and speed up research. However, until today there is no cross-platform integration of these subsystems. Furthermore, implementation of online studies still suffers from the complex implementation (server infrastructure, database programming, security considerations etc.). Here we propose and test a new JavaScript framework that enables researchers to conduct any kind of behavioral research in the browser without the need to program a single line of code. In particular our framework offers the possibility to manipulate and combine the experimental stimuli via a graphical editor, directly in the browser. Moreover, we included an action-event system that can be used to handle user interactions, interactively change stimuli properties or store participants’ responses. Besides traditional recordings such as reaction time, mouse and keyboard presses, the tool offers webcam based eye and face-tracking. On top of these features our framework also takes care about the participant recruitment, via crowdsourcing platforms such as Amazon Mechanical Turk. Furthermore, the build in functionality of google translate will ensure automatic text translations of the experimental content. Thereby, thousands of participants from different cultures and nationalities can be recruited literally within hours. Finally, the recorded data can be visualized and cleaned online, and then exported into the desired formats (csv, xls, sav, mat) for statistical analysis. Alternatively, the data can also be analyzed online within our framework using the integrated Ipython notebook. The framework was designed such that studies can be used interchangeably between researchers. This will support not only the idea of open data repositories but also constitutes the possibility to share and reuse the experimental designs and analyses such that the validity of the paradigms will be improved. Particularly, sharing and integrating the experimental designs and analysis will lead to an increased consistency of experimental paradigms. To demonstrate the functionality of the framework we present the results of a pilot study in the field of spatial navigation that was conducted using the framework. Specifically, we recruited over 2000 subjects with various cultural backgrounds and consequently analyzed performance difference in dependence on the factors culture, gender and age. Overall, our results demonstrate a strong influence of cultural factors in spatial cognition. Such an influence has not yet been reported before and would not have been possible to show without the massive amount of data collected via our framework. In fact, these findings shed new lights on cultural differences in spatial navigation. As a consequence we conclude that our new framework constitutes a wide range of advantages for online research and a methodological innovation, by which new insights can be revealed on the basis of massive data collection.

Keywords: cultural differences, crowdsourcing, JavaScript framework, methodological innovation, online data collection, online study, spatial cognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Prince Chukwuneme Enwereji, Annelien Van Rooyen

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In recent years, technology integration in education has transformed the learning landscape, particularly in online institutions. One technological advancement that has gained popularity is e-tutoring, which offers personalised academic support to students through online platforms. While e-tutoring has become well-known and has been adopted to promote collaborative learning, there are still students who do not use these services for various reasons. However, little attention has been given to understanding the perspectives of students who have not utilized these services. The research objectives include identifying the perceived benefits that non-e-tutoring students believe e-tutoring could offer, such as enhanced academic support, personalized learning experiences, and improved performance. Additionally, the study explored the potential drawbacks or concerns that non-e-tutoring students associate with e-tutoring, such as concerns about efficacy, a lack of face-to-face interaction, and platform accessibility. The study adopted a quantitative research approach with a descriptive design to gather and analyze data on non-e-tutoring students' perspectives. Online questionnaires were employed as the primary data collection method, allowing for the efficient collection of data from many participants. The collected data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Ethical concepts such as informed consent, anonymity of responses and protection of respondents against harm were maintained. Findings indicate that non-e-tutoring students perceive a sense of control over their own pace of learning, suggesting a preference for self-directed learning and the ability to tailor their educational experience to their individual needs and learning styles. They also exhibit high levels of motivation, believe in their ability to effectively participate in their studies and organize their academic work, and feel comfortable studying on their own without the help of e-tutors. However, non-e-tutoring students feel that e-tutors do not sufficiently address their academic needs and lack engagement. They also perceive a lack of clarity in the roles of e-tutors, leading to uncertainty about their responsibilities. In terms of communication, students feel overwhelmed by the volume of announcements and find repetitive information frustrating. Additionally, some students face challenges with their internet connection and associated cost, which can hinder their participation in online activities. Furthermore, non-e-tutoring students express a desire for interactions with their peers and a sense of belonging to a group or team. They value opportunities for collaboration, teamwork in their learning experience, the importance of fostering social interactions and creating a sense of community in online learning environments. This study recommended that students seek alternate support systems by reaching out to professors or academic advisors for guidance and clarification. Developing self-directed learning skills is essential, empowering students to take charge of their own learning through setting objectives, creating own study plans, and utilising resources. For HEIs, it was recommended that they should ensure that a variety of support services are available to cater to the needs of all students, including non-e-tutoring students. HEIs should also ensure easy access to online resources, promote a supportive community, and regularly evaluate and adapt their support techniques to meet students' changing requirements.

Keywords: online-tutor;, student support;, online education, educational practices, distance education

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Lei Ye, Min Liu, Yong-Li Gao, Jun Zhang

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Purpose: The aims of the study are to investigate the status of health-promoting lifestyle and to compare the healthy lifestyle of emergency nurses in different levels of hospitals in Sichuan province, China. The investigation is mainly about the health-promoting lifestyle, including spiritual growth, health responsibility, physical activity, nutrition, interpersonal relations, stress management. Then the factors were analyzed influencing the health-promoting lifestyle of emergency nurses in hospitals of Sichuan province in order to find the relevant models to provide reference evidence for intervention. Study Design: A cross-sectional research method was adopted. Stratified cluster sampling, based on geographical location, was used to select the health facilities of 1389 emergency nurses in 54 hospitals from Sichuan province in China. Method: The 52-item, six-factor structure Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile II (HPLP- II) instrument was used to explore participants’ self-reported health-promoting behaviors and measure the dimensions of health responsibility, physical activity, nutrition, interpersonal relations, spiritual growth, and stress management. Demographic characteristics, education, work duration, emergency nursing work duration and self-rated health status were documented. Analysis: Data were analyzed through SPSS software ver. 17.0. Frequency, percentage, mean ± standard deviation were used to describe the general information, while the Nonparametric Test was used to compare the constituent ratio of general data of different hospitals. One-way ANOVA was used to compare the scores of health-promoting lifestyle in different levels hospital. A multiple linear regression model was established. P values which were less than 0.05 determined statistical significance in all analyses. Result: The survey showed that the total score of health-promoting lifestyle of nurses at emergency departments in Sichuan Province was 120.49 ± 21.280. The relevant dimensions are ranked by scores in descending order: interpersonal relations, nutrition, health responsibility, physical activity, stress management, spiritual growth. The total scores of the three-A hospital were the highest (121.63 ± 0.724), followed by the senior class hospital (119.7 ± 1.362) and three-B hospital (117.80 ± 1.255). The difference was statistically significant (P=0.024). The general data of nurses was used as the independent variable which includes age, gender, marital status, living conditions, nursing income, hospital level, Length of Service in nursing, Length of Service in emergency, Professional Title, education background, and the average number of night shifts. The total score of health-promoting lifestyle was used as dependent variable; Multiple linear regression analysis method was adopted to establish the regression model. The regression equation F = 20.728, R2 = 0.061, P < 0.05, the age, gender, nursing income, turnover intention and status of coping stress affect the health-promoting lifestyle of nurses in emergency department, the result was statistically significant (P < 0.05 ). Conclusion: The results of the investigation indicate that it will help to develop health promoting interventions for emergency nurses in all levels of hospital in Sichuan Province through further research. Managers need to pay more attention to emergency nurses’ exercise, stress management, self-realization, and conduct intervention in nurse training programs.

Keywords: emergency nurse, health-promoting lifestyle profile II, health behaviors, lifestyle

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Authors: Mala Mukherjee

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Background: India is urbanizing very fast and urbanisation in India is treated as one of the most crucial components of economic growth. Though the pace of urbanisation (31.6 per cent in 2011) is however slower and lower than the average for Asia but the absolute number of people residing in cities and towns has increased substantially. Rapid urbanization leads to urban poverty and it is well represented in slums. Currently India has four metropolises and 53 million plus cities. All of them have significant slum population but the standard of living and success of slum development programmes varies across regions. Objectives: Objectives of the paper are to show how urbanisation and slum development varies across space; to show spatial variation in the standard of living in Indian slums; to analyse how the implementation of slum development policies like JNNURM, Rajiv Awas Yojana varies across cities and bring different results in different regions and what are the factors responsible for such variation. Data Sources and Methodology: Census 2011 data on urban population and slum households and amenities have been used for analysing the regional variation of urbanisation in 53 million plus cities of India. Special focus has been put on Kolkata Metropolitan Area. Statistical techniques like z-score and PCA have been employed to work out Standard of Living Deprivation score for all the slums of 53 metropolises. ARC-GIS software is used for making maps. Standard of living has been measured in terms of access to basic amenities, infrastructure and assets like drinking water, sanitation, housing condition, bank account, and so on. Findings: 1. The first finding reveals that migration and urbanization is very high in Greater Mumbai, Delhi, Bangaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata; but slum population is high in Greater Mumbai (50% population live in slums), Meerut, Faridabad, Ludhiana, Nagpur, Kolkata etc. Though the rate of urbanization is high in southern and western states but the percentage of slum population is high in northern states (except Greater Mumbai). 2. Standard of Living also varies widely. Slums of Greater Mumbai and North Indian Cities score fairly high in the index indicating the fact that standard of living is high in those slums compare to the slums in eastern India (Dhanbad, Jamshedpur, Kolkata). Therefore, though Kolkata have relatively lesser percentage of slum population compare to north and south Indian cities but the standard of living in Kolkata’s slums is deplorable. 3. It is interesting to note that even within Kolkata Metropolitan Area slums located in the southern and eastern municipal towns like Rajpur-Sonarpur, Pujali, Diamond Harbour, Baduria and Dankuni have lower standard of living compare to the slums located in the Hooghly Industrial belt like Titagarh, Rishrah, Srerampore etc. Slums of the Hooghly Industrial Belt are older than the slums located in eastern and southern part of the urban agglomeration. 4. Therefore, urban development and emergence of slums should not be the only issue of urban governance but standard of living should be the main focus. Slums located in the main cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata get more attention from the urban planners and similarly, older slums in a city receives greater political attention compare to the slums of smaller cities and newly emerged slums of the peripheral parts.

Keywords: urbanisation, slum, spatial variation, India

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Authors: Crysovaladou Kefaloudi, Kassiani Mellou, Eirini Saranti-Papasaranti, Athanasios Koustenis, Chrysoula Botsi, Agapios Terzidis

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Recent migration crisis led to a vast migrant – refugees movement to Greece which created an urgent need for hosting settlements. Taken into account the protection of public health from possible pathogens related to water and food supply as well as waste and sewage accumulation, a 'Living Conditions Recording Form' was created in the context of 'PHILOS' European Program funded by the Asylum Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF) of EU’s DG Migration and Home Affairs, in order to assess a number of environmental sanitation parameters, in refugees – migrants camps in mainland. The assessment will be completed until the end of July. From March to June 2017, mobile unit teams comprised of health inspectors of sub-action 2 of “PHILOS” proceeded with the assessment of living conditions in twenty-two out of thirty-one camps and 'Stata' was used for the statistical analysis of obtained information. Variables were grouped into the following categories: 1) Camp administration, 2) hosted population number, 3) accommodation, 4) heating installations, 5) personal hygiene, 6) sewage collection and disposal, 7) water supply, 8) waste collection and management, 9) pest control, 10) fire safety, 11) food handling and safety. Preliminary analysis of the results showed that camp administration was performed in 90% of the camps by a public authority with the coordination of various NGOs. The median number of hosted population was 222 ranging from 62 to 3200, and the median value of hosted population per accommodation type was 4 in 19 camps. Heating facilities were provided in 86.1% of camps. In 18.2 % of the camps, one personal hygiene facility was available per 6 people ranging in the rest of the camps from 1 per 3 to 1 per 20 hosted refugees-migrants. Waste and sewage collection was performed depending on populations demand in an adequate way in all recorded camps. In 90% of camps, water was supplied through the central water supply system. In 85% of camps quantity and quality of water supply inside camps was regularly monitored for microbial and chemical indices. Pest control was implemented in 86.4% of the camps as well as fire safety measures. Food was supplied by catering companies in 50% of the camps, and the quality and quantity food was monitored at a regular basis. In 77% of camps, food was prepared by the hosted population with the availability of proper storage conditions. Furthermore, in all camps, hosted population was provided with personal hygiene items and health sanitary educational programs were implemented in 77.3% of camps. In conclusion, in the majority of the camps, environmental sanitation parameters were satisfactory. However, waste and sewage accumulation, as well as inadequate pest control measures were recorded in some camps. The obtained data have led to a number of recommendations for the improvement of sanitary conditions, disseminated to all relevant stakeholders. Special emphasis was given to hygiene measures implementation during food handling by migrants – refugees, as well as to waste and sewage accumulation taking in to account the population’s cultural background.

Keywords: environmental sanitation parameters, food borne diseases risk assessment, refugee – migrants camps, water borne diseases risk assessment

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Authors: Briohny H. Spencer, Russ Chess-Williams, Catherine McDermott, Shailendra Anoopkumar-Dukie, David Christie

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Background: Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer diagnosed in men worldwide and the most prevalent in Australian men. In 2015, it was estimated that approximately 18,000 new cases of prostate cancer were diagnosed in Australia. Currently, for localised disease, androgen depravation therapy (ADT) and radiotherapy are a major part of the curative management of prostate cancer. ADT acts to reduce the levels of circulating androgens, primarily testosterone and the locally produced androgen, dihydrotestosterone (DHT), or by preventing the subsequent activation of the androgen receptor. Thus, the growth of the cancerous cells can be reduced or ceased. Radiation techniques such as brachytherapy (radiation delivered directly to the prostate by transperineal implant) or external beam radiation therapy (exposure to a sufficient dose of radiation aimed at eradicating malignant cells) are also common techniques used in the treatment of this condition. Radiotherapy (RT) has significant limitations, including reduced effectiveness in treating malignant cells present in hypoxic microenvironments leading to radio-resistance and poor clinical outcomes and also the significant side effects for the patients. Alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists are used for many prostate cancer patients to control lower urinary tract symptoms, due to the progression of the disease itself or may arise as an adverse effect of the radiotherapy treatment. In Australia, a significant number (not a majority) of patients receive a α1-ADR antagonist and four drugs are available including prazosin, terazosin, alfuzosin and tamsulosin. There is currently limited published data on the effects of α1-ADR antagonists during radiotherapy, but it suggests these medications may improve patient outcomes by enhancing the effect of radiotherapy. Aim: To determine the impact of α1-ADR antagonists treatments on time to biochemical relapse following radiotherapy. Methods: A retrospective study of male patients receiving radiotherapy for biopsy-proven localised prostate cancer was undertaken to compare cancer outcomes for drug-naïve patients and those receiving α1-ADR antagonist treatments. Ethical approval for the collection of data at Genesis CancerCare QLD was obtained and biochemical relapse (defined by a PSA rise of >2ng/mL above the nadir) was recorded in months. Rates of biochemical relapse, prostate specific antigen doubling time (PSADT) and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were also compared. Treatment groups were those receiving α1-ADR antagonists treatment before or concurrent with their radiotherapy. Data was statistically analysed using One-way ANOVA and results expressed as mean ± standard deviation. Major findings: The mean time to biochemical relapse for tamsulosin, prazosin, alfuzosin and controls were 45.3±17.4 (n=36), 41.5±19.6 (n=11), 29.3±6.02 (n=6) and 36.5±17.6 (n=16) months respectively. Tamsulosin, prazosin but not alfuzosin delayed time to biochemical relapse although the differences were not statistically significant. Conclusion: Preliminary data for the prior and/or concurrent use of tamsulosin and prazosin showed a positive trend in delaying time to biochemical relapse although no statistical significance was shown. Larger clinical studies are indicated and with thousands of patient records yet to be analysed, it may determine if there is a significant effect of these drugs on control of prostate cancer.

Keywords: alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists, biochemical relapse, prostate cancer, radiotherapy

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Authors: Daniel Puciato, Piotr Oleśniewicz, Julita Markiewicz-Patkowska, Krzysztof Widawski, Michał Rozpara, Władysław Mynarski, Agnieszka Gawlik, Małgorzata Dębska, Soňa Jandová

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Physical activity as a part of people’s everyday life reduces the risk of many diseases, including those induced by lifestyle, e.g. obesity, type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis, coronary heart disease, degenerative arthritis, and certain types of cancer. That refers particularly to professionally active people, including the early senior group working on non-manual positions. The aim of the study is to evaluate the relationship between physical activity and the socio-economic status of non-manual workers from Wroclaw—one of the biggest cities in Poland, a model setting for such investigations in this part of Europe. The crucial problem in the research is to find out the percentage of respondents who meet the health-related recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning the volume, frequency, and intensity of physical activity, as well as to establish if the most important socio-economic factors, such as gender, age, education, marital status, per capita income, savings and debt, determine the compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations. During the research, conducted in 2013, 1,170 people (611 women and 559 men) aged 21–60 years were examined. A diagnostic poll method was applied to collect the data. Physical activity was measured with the use of the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire with extended socio-demographic questions, i.e. concerning gender, age, education, marital status, income, savings or debts. To evaluate the relationship between physical activity and selected socio-economic factors, logistic regression was used (odds ratio statistics). Statistical inference was conducted on the adopted ex ante probability level of p<0.05. The majority of respondents met the volume of physical effort recommended for health benefits. It was particularly noticeable in the case of the examined men. The probability of compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations was highest for workers aged 21–30 years with secondary or higher education who were single, received highest incomes and had savings. The results indicate the relations between physical activity and socio-economic status in the examined women and men. People with lower socio-economic status (e.g. manual workers) are physically active primarily at work, whereas those better educated and wealthier implement physical effort primarily in their leisure time. Among the investigated subjects, the youngest group of non-manual workers have the best chances to meet the WHO standards of physical activity. The study also confirms that secondary education has a positive effect on the public awareness on the role of physical activity in human life. In general, the analysis of the research indicates that there is a relationship between physical activity and some socio-economic factors of the respondents, such as gender, age, education, marital status, income per capita, and the possession of savings. Although the obtained results cannot be applied for the general population, they show some important trends that will be verified in subsequent studies conducted by the authors of the paper.

Keywords: IPAQ, nonmanual workers, physical activity, socioeconomic factors, WHO

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Authors: Jawaad Saleem, Hannah Wright, Peter Sommerville, Adrian Hopper

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Introduction: Inpatient falls are the most commonly reported patient safety incidents, and carry a significant burden on resources, morbidity, and mortality. Ensuring adequate post falls management of patients by staff is therefore paramount to maintaining patient safety especially in out of hours and resource stretched settings. Aims: This quality improvement project aims to improve the current practice of falls management at Guys St Thomas Hospital, London as compared to our 2016 Quality Improvement Project findings. Furthermore, it looks to increase current junior doctors confidence in managing falls and their use of new guidance protocols. Methods: Multifaceted Interventions implemented included: the development of new trust wide guidelines detailing management pathways for patients post falls, available for intranet access. Furthermore, the production of 2000 lanyard cards distributed amongst junior doctors and staff which summarised these guidelines. Additionally, a ‘safety signal’ email was sent from the Trust chief medical officer to all staff raising awareness of falls and the guidelines. Formal falls teaching was also implemented for new doctors at induction. Using an established incident database, 189 consecutive falls in 2017were retrospectively analysed electronically to assess and compared to the variables measured in 2016 post interventions. A separate serious incident database was used to analyse 50 falls from May 2015 to March 2018 to ascertain the statistical significance of the impact of our interventions on serious incidents. A similar questionnaire for the 2017 cohort of foundation year one (FY1) doctors was performed and compared to 2016 results. Results: Questionnaire data demonstrated improved awareness and utility of guidelines and increased confidence as well as an increase in training. 97% of FY1 trainees felt that the interventions had increased their awareness of the impact of falls on patients in the trust. Data from the incident database demonstrated the time to review patients post fall had decreased from an average of 130 to 86 minutes. Improvement was also demonstrated in the reduced time to order and schedule X-ray and CT imaging, 3 and 5 hours respectively. Data from the serious incident database show that ‘the time from fall until harm was detected’ was statistically significantly lower (P = 0.044) post intervention. We also showed the incidence of significant delays in detecting harm ( > 10 hours) reduced post intervention. Conclusions: Our interventions have helped to significantly reduce the average time to assess, order and schedule appropriate imaging post falls. Delays of over ten hours to detect serious injuries after falls were commonplace; since the intervention, their frequency has markedly reduced. We suggest this will lead to identifying patient harm sooner, reduced clinical incidents relating to falls and thus improve overall patient safety. Our interventions have also helped increase clinical staff confidence, management, and awareness of falls in the trust. Next steps include expanding teaching sessions, improving multidisciplinary team involvement to aid this improvement.

Keywords: patient safety, quality improvement, serious incidents, falls, clinical care

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Authors: Katherine Maurer

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Background and purpose: Violence that occurs within families is a global social problem. Children who are victims or witness to family violence are at risk for many negative effects both proximally and distally. One of the most disconcerting long-term effects occurs when child victims become adult perpetrators: the intergenerational transmission of family violence (ITFV). Early identification of those children most at risk for ITFV is needed to inform interventions to prevent future family violence perpetration and victimization. Only about 25-30% of child family violence victims become perpetrators of adult family violence (either child abuse, partner abuse, or both). Prior research has primarily been conducted using dichotomous measures of exposure (yes; no) to predict ITFV, given the low incidence rate in community samples. It is often assumed that exposure to greater amounts of violence predicts greater risk of ITFV. However, no previous longitudinal study with a community sample has tested a dose-response model of exposure to physical child abuse and parental physical intimate partner violence (IPV) using count data of frequency and severity of violence to predict adult ITFV. The current study used advanced statistical methods to test if increased childhood exposure would predict greater risk of ITFV. Methods: The study utilized 3 panels of prospective data from a cohort of 15 year olds (N=338) from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods longitudinal study. The data were comprised of a stratified probability sample of seven ethnic/racial categories and three socio-economic status levels. Structural equation modeling was employed to test a hurdle regression model of dose-response to predict ITFV. A version of the Conflict Tactics Scale was used to measure physical violence victimization, witnessing parental IPV and young adult IPV perpetration and victimization. Results: Consistent with previous findings, past 12 months incidence rates severity and frequency of interpersonal violence were highly skewed. While rates of parental and young adult IPV were about 40%, an unusually high rate of physical child abuse (57%) was reported. The vast majority of a number of acts of violence, whether minor or severe, were in the 1-3 range in the past 12 months. Reported frequencies of more than 5 times in the past year were rare, with less than 10% of those reporting more than six acts of minor or severe physical violence. As expected, minor acts of violence were much more common than acts of severe violence. Overall, regression analyses were not significant for the dose-response model of ITFV. Conclusions and implications: The results of the dose-response model were not significant due to a lack of power in the final sample (N=338). Nonetheless, the value of the approach was confirmed for the future research given the bi-modal nature of the distributions which suggest that in the context of both child physical abuse and physical IPV, there are at least two classes when frequency of acts is considered. Taking frequency into account in predictive models may help to better understand the relationship of exposure to ITFV outcomes. Further testing using hurdle regression models is suggested.

Keywords: intergenerational transmission of family violence, physical child abuse, intimate partner violence, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Diana Santiago, Tania Lisboa, Sophie Lee, Alexander P. Demos, Monica C. S. Vasconcelos

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Memorization has long been recognized as an arduous and anxiety-evoking task for musicians, and yet, it is an essential aspect of performance. Research shows that musicians are often not taught how to memorize. While memorization and practice strategies of professionals have been studied, little research has been done to examine how student musicians learn to practice and memorize music in different cultural settings. We present the process of developing and testing a questionnaire of music memorization and musical practice for student musicians in the UK and Brazil. A survey was developed for a cross-cultural research project aiming at examining how young orchestral musicians (aged 7–18 years) in different learning environments and cultures engage in instrumental practice and memorization. The questionnaire development included members of a UK/US/Brazil research team of music educators and performance science researchers. A pool of items was developed for each aspect of practice and memorization identified, based on literature, personal experiences, and adapted from existing questionnaires. Item development took the varying levels of cognitive and social development of the target populations into consideration. It also considered the diverse target learning environments. Items were initially grouped in accordance with a single underlying construct/behavior. The questionnaire comprised three sections: a demographics section, a section on practice (containing 29 items), and a section on memorization (containing 40 items). Next, the response process was considered and a 5-point Likert scale ranging from ‘always’ to ‘never’ with a verbal label and an image assigned to each response option was selected, following effective questionnaire design for children and youths. Finally, a pilot study was conducted with young orchestral musicians from diverse learning environments in Brazil and the United Kingdom. Data collection took place in either one-to-one or group settings to facilitate the participants. Cognitive interviews were utilized to establish response process validity by confirming the readability and accurate comprehension of the questionnaire items or highlighting the need for item revision. Internal reliability was investigated by measuring the consistency of the item groups using the statistical test Cronbach’s alpha. The pilot study successfully relied on the questionnaire to generate data about the engagement of young musicians of different levels and instruments, across different learning and cultural environments, in instrumental practice and memorization. Interaction analysis of the cognitive interviews undertaken with these participants, however, exposed the fact that certain items, and the response scale, could be interpreted in multiple ways. The questionnaire text was, therefore, revised accordingly. The low Cronbach’s Alpha scores of many item groups indicated another issue with the original questionnaire: its low level of internal reliability. Several reasons for each poor reliability can be suggested, including the issues with item interpretation revealed through interaction analysis of the cognitive interviews, the small number of participants (34), and the elusive nature of the construct in question. The revised questionnaire measures 78 specific behaviors or opinions. It can be seen to provide an efficient means of gathering information about the engagement of young musicians in practice and memorization on a large scale.

Keywords: cross-cultural, memorization, practice, questionnaire, young musicians

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Authors: Camelia Vizireanu, Daniela Istrati, Alina Georgiana Profir, Rodica Mihaela Dinica

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Globally, there is a great interest in promoting the consumption of fruit and vegetables to improve health. Due to the content of essential compounds such as antioxidants, important amounts of fruits and vegetables should be included in the daily diet. Juices are good sources of vitamins and can also help increase overall fruit and vegetable consumption. Starting from this trend (introduction into the daily diet of vegetables and fruits) as well as the desire to diversify the range of functional products for both adults and children, a fermented juice was made using probiotic microorganisms based on root vegetables, with potential beneficial effects in the diet of children, vegetarians and people with lactose intolerance. The three vegetables selected for this study, red beet, carrot, and celery bring a significant contribution to functional compounds such as carotenoids, flavonoids, betalain, vitamin B and C, minerals and fiber. By fermentation, the functional value of the vegetable juice increases due to the improved stability of these compounds. The combination of probiotic microorganisms and vegetable fibers resulted in a nutrient-rich synbiotic product. The stability of the nutritional and sensory qualities of the obtained synbiotic product has been tested throughout its shelf life. The evaluation of the physico-chemical changes of the synbiotic drink during storage confirmed that: (i) vegetable juice enriched with honey and vegetable pulp is an important source of nutritional compounds, especially carbohydrates and fiber; (ii) microwave treatment used to inhibit pathogenic microflora did not significantly affect nutritional compounds in vegetable juice, vitamin C concentration remained at baseline and beta-carotene concentration increased due to increased bioavailability; (iii) fermentation has improved the nutritional quality of vegetable juice by increasing the content of B vitamins, polyphenols and flavonoids and has a good antioxidant capacity throughout the shelf life; (iv) the FTIR and Raman spectra have highlighted the results obtained using physicochemical methods. Based on the analysis of IR absorption frequencies, the most striking bands belong to the frequencies 3330 cm⁻¹, 1636 cm⁻¹ and 1050 cm⁻¹, specific for groups of compounds such as polyphenols, carbohydrates, fatty acids, and proteins. Statistical data processing revealed a good correlation between the content of flavonoids, betalain, β-carotene, ascorbic acid and polyphenols, the fermented juice having a stable antioxidant activity. Also, principal components analysis showed that there was a negative correlation between the evolution of the concentration of B vitamins and antioxidant activity. Acknowledgment: This study has been founded by the Francophone University Agency, Project Réseau régional dans le domaine de la santé, la nutrition et la sécurité alimentaire (SaIN), No. at Dunarea de Jos University of Galati 21899/ 06.09.2017 and by the Sectorial Operational Programme Human Resources Development of the Romanian Ministry of Education, Research, Youth and Sports trough the Financial Agreement POSDRU/159/1.5/S/132397 ExcelDOC.

Keywords: bioactive compounds, fermentation, synbiotic drink from vegetables, stability during storage

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Authors: Yagmur Soylu, Emir Ozeren, Erol Esen, Digdem M. Siyez, Ozlem Belkis, Ezgi Burc, Gülce Demirgurz

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The aim of the study is to determine the predictive power of personal growth initiative, socio-demographic variables (such as sex, grade, and working condition) on career adaptability and optimism of bachelor students in Dokuz Eylul University in Turkey. According to career construction theory, career adaptability is viewed as a psychosocial construct, which refers to an individual’s resources for dealing with current and expected tasks, transitions and traumas in their occupational roles. Career optimism is defined as positive results for future career development of individuals in the expectation that it will achieve or to put the emphasis on the positive aspects of the event and feel comfortable about the career planning process. Personal Growth Initiative (PGI) is defined as being proactive about one’s personal development. Additionally, personal growth is defined as the active and intentional engagement in the process of personal. A study conducted on college students revealed that individuals with high self-development orientation make more effort to discover the requirements of the profession and workspaces than individuals with low levels of personal development orientation. University life is a period that social relations and the importance of academic activities are increased, the students make efforts to progress through their career paths and it is also an environment that offers opportunities to students for their self-realization. For these reasons, personal growth initiative is potentially an important variable which has a key role for an individual during the transition phase from university to the working life. Based on the review of the literature, it is expected that individual’s personal growth initiative, sex, grade, and working condition would significantly predict one’s career adaptability. In the relevant literature, it can be seen that there are relatively few studies available on the career adaptability and optimism of university students. Most of the existing studies have been carried out with limited respondents. In this study, the authors aim to conduct a comprehensive research with a large representative sample of bachelor students in Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey. By now, personal growth initiative and career development constructs have been predominantly discussed in western contexts where individualistic tendencies are likely to be seen. Thus, the examination of the same relationship within the context of Turkey where collectivistic cultural characteristics can be more observed is expected to offer valuable insights and provide an important contribution to the literature. The participants in this study were comprised of 1500 undergraduate students being included from thirteen faculties in Dokuz Eylul University. Stratified and random sampling methods were adopted for the selection of the participants. The Personal Growth Initiative Scale-II and Career Futures Inventory were used as the major measurement tools. In data analysis stage, several statistical analysis concerning the regression analysis, one-way ANOVA and t-test will be conducted to reveal the relationships of the constructs under investigation. At the end of this project, we will be able to determine the level of career adaptability and optimism of university students at varying degrees so that a fertile ground is likely to be created to carry out several intervention techniques to make a contribution to an emergence of a healthier and more productive youth generation in psycho-social sense.

Keywords: career optimism, career adaptability, personal growth initiative, university students

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Authors: M. Skibinska, A. Rajewska-Rager, M. Dmitrzak-Weglarz, N. Lepczynska, P. Sibilski, P. Kapelski, J. Pawlak, J. Twarowska-Hauser

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Introduction: Neurotrophic factors have been implicated in neuropsychiatric disorders. Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) influences neuron differentiation in development as well as synaptic plasticity and neuron survival in adulthood. BDNF is widely studied in mood disorders and has been proposed as a biomarker for depression. BDNF is synthesized as precursor protein – proBDNF. Both forms are biologically active and exert opposite effects on neurons. Aim: The aim of the study was to examine the serum levels of BDNF and proBDNF in unipolar and bipolar young patients below 24 years old during hypo/manic, depressive episodes and in remission compared to healthy control group. Methods: In a prospective 2 years follow-up study, we investigated alterations in levels of BDNF and proBDNF in 79 patients (23 males, mean age 19.08, SD 3.3 and 56 females, mean age 18.39, SD 3.28) diagnosed with mood disorders: unipolar and bipolar disorder compared with 35 healthy control subjects (7 males, mean age 20.43, SD 4.23 and 28 females, mean age 21.25, SD 2.11). Clinical characteristics including mood, comorbidity, family history, and treatment, were evaluated during control visits and clinical symptoms were rated using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale and Young Mania Rating Scale. Serum BDNF and proBDNF concentrations were determined by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays (ELISA) method. Serum BDNF and proBDNF levels were analysed with covariates: sex, age, age > 18 and < 18 years old, family history of affective disorders, drug-free vs. medicated status. Normality of the data was tested using Shapiro-Wilk test. Levene’s test was used to calculate homogeneity of variance. Non-parametric Tests: Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, Friedman’s ANOVA, Wilcoxon signed rank test, Spearman correlation coefficient were applied in analyses The statistical significance level was set at p < 0.05. Results: BDNF and proBDNF serum levels did not differ between patients at baseline and controls as well as comparing patients in acute episode of depression/hypo/mania at baseline and euthymia (at month 3 or 6). Comparing BDNF and proBDNF levels between patients in euthymia and control group no differences have been found. Increased BDNF level in women compared to men at baseline (p=0.01) have been observed. BDNF level at baseline was negatively correlated with depression and mania occurence at 24 month (p=0.04). BDNF level at 12 month was negatively correlated with depression and mania occurence at 12 month (p=0.01). Correlation of BDNF level with sex have been detected (p=0.01). proBDNF levels at month 3, 6 and 12 negatively correlated with disease status (p=0.02, p=0.008, p=0.009, respectively). No other correlations of BDNF and proBDNF levels with clinical and demographical variables have been detected. Discussion: Our results did not show any differences in BDNF and proBDNF levels between depression, mania, euthymia, and controls. Imbalance in BDNF/proBDNF signalling may be involved in pathogenesis of mood disorders. Further studies on larger groups are recommended. Grant was founded by National Science Center in Poland no 2011/03/D/NZ5/06146.

Keywords: bipolar disorder, Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF), proBDNF, unipolar depression

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Authors: Swati Gautam, Salman Akhtar, S. P. Jaiswar, Amita Jain

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Background: FGTB is now a major global health problem mostly in developing countries including India. In humans, Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (M.tb) is a causating agent of infection. High index of suspicion is required for early diagnosis due to asymptomatic presentation of FGTB disease. In macrophages Toll Like Receptor-2 (TLR-2) is one which mediated host’s immune response to M.tb. The expression of TLR-2 on macrophages is important to determine the fate of innate immune responses to M.tb. TLR-2 have two work. First its high expression on macrophages worsen the outer of infection and another side, it maintains M.tb to its dormant stage avoids activation of M.tb from latent phase. Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) of TLR-2 gene plays an important role in susceptibility to TB among different populations and subsequently, in the development of infertility. Methodology: This Case-Control study was done in the Department of Obs and Gynae and Department of Microbiology at King George’s Medical University, U.P, Lucknow, India. Total 300 subjects (150 Cases and 150 Controls) were enrolled in the study. All subjects were enrolled only after fulfilling the given inclusion and exclusion criteria. Inclusion criteria: Age 20-35 years, menstrual-irregularities, positive on Acid-Fast Bacilli (AFB), TB-PCR, (LJ/MGIT) culture in Endometrial Aspiration (EA). Exclusion criteria: Koch’s active, on ATT, PCOS, and Endometriosis fibroid women, positive on Gonococal and Chlamydia. Blood samples were collected in EDTA tubes from cases and healthy control women (HCW) and genomic DNA extraction was carried out by salting-out method. Genotyping of TLR2 genetic variants (Arg753Gln and Arg677Trp) were performed by using single amplification refractory mutation system (ARMS) PCR technique. PCR products were analyzed by electrophoresis on 1.2% agarose gel and visualized by gel-doc. Statistical analysis of the data was performed using the SPSS 16.3 software and computing odds ratio (OR) with 95% CI. Linkage Disequiliribium (LD) analysis was done by SNP stats online software. Results: In TLR-2 (Arg753Gln) polymorphism significant risk of FGTB observed with GG homozygous mutant genotype (OR=13, CI=0.71-237.7, p=0.05), AG heterozygous mutant genotype (OR=13.7, CI=0.76-248.06, p=0.03) however, G allele (OR=1.09, CI=0.78-1.52, p=0.67) individually was not associated with FGTB. In TLR-2 (Arg677Trp) polymorphism a significant risk of FGTB observed with TT homozygous mutant genotype (OR= 0.020, CI=0.001-0.341, p < 0.001), CT heterozygous mutant genotype (OR=0.53, CI=0.33-0.86, p=0.014) and T allele (OR=0.463, CI=0.32-0.66, p < 0.001). TT mutant genotype was only found in FGTB cases and frequency of CT heterozygous more in control group as compared to FGTB group. So, CT genotype worked as protective mutation for FGTB susceptibility group. In haplotype analysis of TLR-2 genetic variants, four possible combinations, i.e. (G-T, A-C, G-C, and A-T) were obtained. The frequency of haplotype A-C was significantly higher in FGTB cases (0.32). Control group did not show A-C haplotype and only found in FGTB cases. Conclusion: In conclusion, study showed a significant association with both genetic variants of TLR-2 of FGTB disease. Moreover, the presence of specific associated genotype/alleles suggest the possibility of disease severity and clinical approach aimed to prevent extensive damage by disease and also helpful for early detection of disease.

Keywords: ARMS, EDTA, FGTB, TLR

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Authors: Mahyar MehrAfarin

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The Sistan region in eastern Iran is a significant archaeological area in Iran and the Middle East, encompassing 10,000 square kilometers. Previous archeological field surveys have identified 1662 ancient sites dating from prehistoric periods to the Islamic period. Research Aim: This article aims to explore the utilization of modern technologies and computers in archaeological field surveys in Sistan, Iran, and the benefits derived from their implementation. Methodology: The research employs a descriptive-analytical approach combined with field methods. New technologies and software, such as GPS, drones, magnetometers, equipped cameras, satellite images, and software programs like GIS, Map source, and Excel, were utilized to collect information and analyze data. Findings: The use of modern technologies and computers in archaeological field surveys proved to be essential. Traditional archaeological activities, such as excavation and field surveys, are time-consuming and costly. Employing modern technologies helps in preserving ancient sites, accurately recording archaeological data, reducing errors and mistakes, and facilitating correct and accurate analysis. Creating a comprehensive and accessible database, generating statistics, and producing graphic designs and diagrams are additional advantages derived from the use of efficient technologies in archaeology. Theoretical Importance: The integration of computers and modern technologies in archaeology contributes to interdisciplinary collaborations and facilitates the involvement of specialists from various fields, such as geography, history, art history, anthropology, laboratory sciences, and computer engineering. The utilization of computers in archaeology spanned across diverse areas, including database creation, statistical analysis, graphics implementation, laboratory and engineering applications, and even artificial intelligence, which remains an unexplored area in Iranian archaeology. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Information was collected using modern technologies and software, capturing geographic coordinates, aerial images, archeogeophysical data, and satellite images. This data was then inputted into various software programs for analysis, including GIS, Map source, and Excel. The research employed both descriptive and analytical methods to present findings effectively. Question Addressed: The primary question addressed in this research is how the use of modern technologies and computers in archeological field surveys in Sistan, Iran, can enhance archaeological data collection, preservation, analysis, and accessibility. Conclusion: The utilization of modern technologies and computers in archaeological field surveys in Sistan, Iran, has proven to be necessary and beneficial. These technologies aid in preserving ancient sites, accurately recording archaeological data, reducing errors, and facilitating comprehensive analysis. The creation of accessible databases, statistics generation, graphic designs, and interdisciplinary collaborations are further advantages observed. It is recommended to explore the potential of artificial intelligence in Iranian archaeology as an unexplored area. The research has implications for cultural heritage organizations, archaeology students, and universities involved in archaeological field surveys in Sistan and Baluchistan province. Additionally, it contributes to enhancing the understanding and preservation of Iran's archaeological heritage.

Keywords: Iran, sistan, archaeological surveys, computer use, modern technologies

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Authors: Denise De Fátima Fernandes Barbosa, Tyane Mayara Ferreira Oliveira, Diego Jorge Maia Lima, Paula Renata Amorim Lessa, Ana Karina Bezerra Pinheiro, Cintia Gondim Pereira Calou, Glauberto Da Silva Quirino, Hellen Lívia Oliveira Catunda, Tatiana Gomes Guedes, Nicolau Da Costa

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The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of Digital Cervicography (DC) in the diagnosis of precancerous lesions related to Human Papillomavirus (HPV). Cross-sectional study with a quantitative approach, of evaluative type, held in a health unit linked to the Pro Dean of Extension of the Federal University of Ceará, in the period of July to August 2015 with a sample of 33 women. Data collecting was conducted through interviews with enforcement tool. Franco (2005) standardized the technique used for DC. Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) was performed to identify high-risk HPV genotypes. DC were evaluated and classified by 3 judges. The results of DC and PCR were classified as positive, negative or inconclusive. The data of the collecting instruments were compiled and analyzed by the software Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) with descriptive statistics and cross-references. Sociodemographic, sexual and reproductive variables were analyzed through absolute frequencies (N) and their respective percentage (%). Kappa coefficient (κ) was applied to determine the existence of agreement between the DC of reports among evaluators with PCR and also among the judges about the DC results. The Pearson's chi-square test was used for analysis of sociodemographic, sexual and reproductive variables with the PCR reports. It was considered statistically significant (p<0.05). Ethical aspects of research involving human beings were respected, according to 466/2012 Resolution. Regarding the socio-demographic profile, the most prevalent ages and equally were those belonging to the groups 21-30 and 41-50 years old (24.2%). The brown color was reported in excess (84.8%) and 96.9% out of them had completed primary and secondary school or studying. 51.5% were married, 72.7% Catholic, 54.5% employed and 48.5% with income between one and two minimum wages. As for the sexual and reproductive characteristics, prevailed heterosexual (93.9%) who did not use condoms during sexual intercourse (72.7%). 51.5% had a previous history of Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI), and HPV the most prevalent STI (76.5%). 57.6% did not use contraception, 78.8% underwent examination Cancer Prevention Uterus (PCCU) with shorter time interval or equal to one year, 72.7% had no cases of Cervical Cancer in the family, 63.6% were multiparous and 97% were not vaccinated against HPV. DC identified good level of agreement between raters (κ=0.542), had a specificity of 77.8% and sensitivity of 25% when compared their results with PCR. Only the variable race showed a statistically significant association with CRP (p=0.042). DC had 100% acceptance amongst women in the sample, revealing the possibility of other experiments in using this method so that it proves as a viable technique. The DC positivity criteria were developed by nurses and these professionals also perform PCCU in Brazil, which means that DC can be an important complementary diagnostic method for the appreciation of these professional’s quality of examinations.

Keywords: gynecological examination, human papillomavirus, nursing, papillomavirus infections, uterine lasmsneop

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Authors: Milos Travar, Jovana Nikolov, Andrej Vranicar, Natasa Todorovic

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Over the years, High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors proved to be an excellent practical tool and, as such, have established their today's wide use in low background γ-spectrometry. One of the advantages of gamma-ray spectrometry is its easy sample preparation as chemical processing and separation of the studied subject are not required. Thus, with a single measurement, one can simultaneously perform both qualitative and quantitative analysis. One of the most prominent features of HPGe detectors, besides their excellent efficiency, is their superior resolution. This feature virtually allows a researcher to perform a thorough analysis by discriminating photons of similar energies in the studied spectra where otherwise they would superimpose within a single-energy peak and, as such, could potentially scathe analysis and produce wrongly assessed results. Naturally, this feature is of great importance when the identification of radionuclides, as well as their activity concentrations, is being practiced where high precision comes as a necessity. In measurements of this nature, in order to be able to reproduce good and trustworthy results, one has to have initially performed an adequate full-energy peak (FEP) efficiency calibration of the used equipment. However, experimental determination of the response, i.e., efficiency curves for a given detector-sample configuration and its geometry, is not always easy and requires a certain set of reference calibration sources in order to account for and cover broader energy ranges of interest. With the goal of overcoming these difficulties, a lot of researches turned towards the application of different software toolkits that implement the Monte Carlo method (e.g., MCNP, FLUKA, PENELOPE, Geant4, etc.), as it has proven time and time again to be a very powerful tool. In the process of creating a reliable model, one has to have well-established and described specifications of the detector. Unfortunately, the documentation that manufacturers provide alongside the equipment is rarely sufficient enough for this purpose. Furthermore, certain parameters tend to evolve and change over time, especially with older equipment. Deterioration of these parameters consequently decreases the active volume of the crystal and can thus affect the efficiencies by a large margin if they are not properly taken into account. In this study, the optimisation method of two HPGe detectors through the implementation of the Geant4 toolkit developed by CERN is described, with the goal of further improving simulation accuracy in calculations of FEP efficiencies by investigating the influence of certain detector variables (e.g., crystal-to-window distance, dead layer thicknesses, inner crystal’s void dimensions, etc.). Detectors on which the optimisation procedures were carried out were a standard traditional co-axial extended range detector (XtRa HPGe, CANBERRA) and a broad energy range planar detector (BEGe, CANBERRA). Optimised models were verified through comparison with experimentally obtained data from measurements of a set of point-like radioactive sources. Acquired results of both detectors displayed good agreement with experimental data that falls under an average statistical uncertainty of ∼ 4.6% for XtRa and ∼ 1.8% for BEGe detector within the energy range of 59.4−1836.1 [keV] and 59.4−1212.9 [keV], respectively.

Keywords: HPGe detector, γ spectrometry, efficiency, Geant4 simulation, Monte Carlo method

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: Marina Nechayeva, Malgorzata Marciniak, Vladimir Przhebelskiy, A. Dragutan, S. Lamichhane, S. Oikawa

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This presentation is a progress report on a faculty-student research collaboration at CUNY LaGuardia Community College (LaGCC) aimed at designing a small horizontal axis wind turbine optimized for the wind patterns on the roof of our campus. Our project combines statistical and engineering research. Our wind modeling protocol is based upon a recent wind study by a faculty-student research group at MIT, and some of our blade design methods are adopted from a senior engineering project at CUNY City College. Our use of genetic algorithms has been inspired by the work on small wind turbines’ design by David Wood. We combine these diverse approaches in our interdisciplinary project in a way that has not been done before and improve upon certain techniques used by our predecessors. We employ several estimation methods to determine the best fitting parametric probability distribution model for the local wind speed data obtained through correlating short-term on-site measurements with a long-term time series at the nearby airport. The model serves as a foundation for engineering research that focuses on adapting and implementing genetic algorithms (GAs) to engineering optimization of the wind turbine design using Blade Element Momentum Theory. GAs are used to create new airfoils with desirable aerodynamic specifications. Small scale models of best performing designs are 3D printed and tested in the wind tunnel to verify the accuracy of relevant calculations. Genetic algorithms are applied to selected airfoils to determine the blade design (radial cord and pitch distribution) that would optimize the coefficient of power profile of the turbine. Our approach improves upon the traditional blade design methods in that it lets us dispense with assumptions necessary to simplify the system of Blade Element Momentum Theory equations, thus resulting in more accurate aerodynamic performance calculations. Furthermore, it enables us to design blades optimized for a whole range of wind speeds rather than a single value. Lastly, we improve upon known GA-based methods in that our algorithms are constructed to work with XFoil generated airfoils data which enables us to optimize blades using our own high glide ratio airfoil designs, without having to rely upon available empirical data from existing airfoils, such as NACA series. Beyond its immediate goal, this ongoing project serves as a training and selection platform for CUNY Research Scholars Program (CRSP) through its annual Aerodynamics and Wind Energy Research Seminar (AWERS), an undergraduate summer research boot camp, designed to introduce prospective researchers to the relevant theoretical background and methodology, get them up to speed with the current state of our research, and test their abilities and commitment to the program. Furthermore, several aspects of the research (e.g., writing code for 3D printing of airfoils) are adapted in the form of classroom research activities to enhance Calculus sequence instruction at LaGCC.

Keywords: engineering design optimization, genetic algorithms, horizontal axis wind turbine, wind modeling

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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