Search results for: cosmological constant term

Authors: C. Chaillou

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The dominant theoretical approaches in Criminology are interested in the phenomenon of delinquency from the question of the management of the risks incurred by the population. Thus, this research advocate prevention of this phenomenon by a tracking of early disorders in children. Treatments offered to rely on medical research (genetics and biology are cited as a reference) and assuming a high naturalization of delinquent behaviour. Programs that are offered also reduce to a recovery of the deviant behaviour, and rely readily on behavioral guidelines, with an educational grant. Public policy then rely on these programs to prevent unwanted behaviour within a given population and to reduce the risk for the company. This is the case in France, with national institutes making (juvenile) violence a public health problem. We consider that other approaches, issues of sociology, are more relevant to the treatment of offenders. These approaches are moving, not on its prevention, but from its inputs and its outputs. Several modalities of entries and exits of delinquency can find and analyze in terms of process. We assume that there is a dynamic inherent in the individual and it is important to take into account the environment of the offender. These different types of processes can illuminate from the derived work of the Psychoanalytical psychopathology and lead to more effective treatment of delinquent acts. Psychoanalytic concepts have enabled us to offer a new look means to treat delinquency, placing several types of relationship with the other and relating to the clinical structure and the uniqueness of the case, we have been able to enter subjective and unconscious logics at work in delinquent acts. This research has facilitated the reduction of these types of subjective responses and proposed others, opening to a reintegration of offenders in a social link them being more favourable and in a longer term.

Keywords: delinquency, insertion, social link, unconscious

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Authors: S. Zev Kalifon

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The question of polygamy for Moslem minorities in Western nations has often been raised in the political and social discourse. Can polygamy be tolerated as a religious or human right in the West. For example, before the 2015 election in Israel, changes were made in the electoral system, which encouraged three small Arab parties to merge into one list. This “Unity List” included the socially liberal Communist list and a socially conservative Islamist list. Two members of the Islamist list were polygamists. Some rival politicians called for the election board to disqualify these men (and even the whole list) from the election process. This request was denied by the courts, and the men were elected to the parliament. Their subsequent seating in the parliament was questioned by many on both the liberal and conservative sides of the political spectrum. Some political commentators went so far as to describe polygamy as a “mark of disgrace” (a term usually reserved for people convicted on corruption charges). There are also problems in other areas of society; these include the rights of these families for welfare and social services (public policy issues) and residence in Israel. Using qualitative methods (primarily historical and archival data), this paper will analyze at the historic and cultural processes which created the intense opposition to polygamy in Judaism (for Israel) and Christianity (for the Western world). It will look at the debate over the "religious right" of polygamy for Moslem citizens in Israel and other Western cultures. Finally, it will examine the political, cultural, and demographic pressures which encourage polygamy in these minorities. This paper will demonstrate that the debate over polygamy is more than a question of religious freedom or human rights or multi-culturalism. It is a central symbol of modernity and the Western worldview.

Keywords: human rights, Judaism, multi-culturalism, polygamy, western values

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Authors: Alaa Sarhan, Rania Abd El Gelil, Hana Awad

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Through the last decades, the impact of thermal comfort on the working performance of users and occupants of an indoor space has been a concern. Research papers concluded that natural ventilation quality directly impacts the levels of thermal comfort. Natural ventilation must be put into account during the design process in order to improve the inhabitant's efficiency and productivity. One example of daily long-term occupancy spaces is educational facilities. Many individuals spend long times receiving a considerable amount of knowledge, and it takes additional time to apply this knowledge. Thus, this research is concerned with user's level of thermal comfort in design studios of educational facilities. The natural ventilation quality in spaces is affected by a number of parameters including orientation, opening design, and many other factors. This research aims to investigate the conscious manipulation of the physical parameters of the spaces and its impact on natural ventilation performance which subsequently affects thermal comfort of users. The current research uses inductive and deductive methods to define natural ventilation design considerations, which are used in a field study in a studio in the university building in Alexandria (AAST) to evaluate natural ventilation performance through analyzing and comparing the current case to the developed framework and conducting computational fluid dynamics simulation. Results have proved that natural ventilation performance is successful by only 50% of the natural ventilation design framework; these results are supported by CFD simulation.

Keywords: educational buildings, natural ventilation, , mediterranean climate, thermal comfort

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Authors: José Eduardo García-Mendiola

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In this work, a phenomenological approach to computational modeling of analogy processing is carried out. The paper goes through the consideration of the structure of the analogy, based on the possibility of sustaining the genesis of its elements regarding Husserl's genetic theory of association. Among particular processes which take place in order to get analogical inferences, there is one which arises crucial for enabling efficient base cases retrieval through long-term memory, namely analogical transference grounded on familiarity. In general, it has been argued that analogical reasoning is a way by which a conscious agent tries to determine or define a certain scope of objects and relationships between them using previous knowledge of other familiar domain of objects and relations. However, looking for a complete description of analogy process, a deeper consideration of phenomenological nature is required in so far, its simulation by computational programs is aimed. Also, one would get an idea of how complex it would be to have a fully computational account of the analogy elements. In fact, familiarity is not a result of a mere chain of repetitions of objects or events but generated insofar as the object/attribute or event in question is integrable inside a certain context that is taking shape as functionalities and functional approaches or perspectives of the object are being defined. Its familiarity is generated not by the identification of its parts or objective determinations as if they were isolated from those functionalities and approaches. Rather, at the core of such a familiarity between entities of different kinds lays the way they are functionally encoded. So, and hoping to make deeper inroads towards these topics, this essay allows us to consider that cognitive-computational perspectives can visualize, from the phenomenological projection of the analogy process reviewing achievements already obtained as well as exploration of new theoretical-experimental configurations towards implementation of analogy models in specific as well as in general purpose machines.

Keywords: analogy, association, encoding, retrieval

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Authors: Jiaying Gao, Thammananya Sakcharoen, Wilailuk Niyommaneerat

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Haikou is the capital of Hainan, a major tourism province in China with rich ecotourism resources. There is a need to strengthen tourism destination management in Haikou toward sustainable development as a tourism city. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between tourism destination management and sustainable tourism in Haikou. Exploratory factor analysis was used to extract six dimensions of this study. Three dimensions (10 factors) of tourism destination management were analyzed in terms of economic development, social and cultural development, and conservation of ecosystem. Sustainability awareness, tourism development experience, and tourism public infrastructure in three dimensions (12 factors) of sustainable tourism. There were 426 questionnaire respondents, including 225 tourists, 172 residents, 12 tourism agency persons, 10 government persons, 3 self-employed, and 4 others. The Structural equation modeling (SEM) model was finally conducted to test the hypotheses empirically and explore the impact relationship. The study found a significant relationship between tourism destination management and sustainable tourism: social and cultural development had the greatest significant positive impact on the tourism development experience (0.788***). Social and cultural development also showed a significant positive impact and great impetus on tourism public infrastructure (0.561***). A negative effect relationship (-0.096***) emerged between ecosystem conversion and tourism development experience. It showed a positive relationship between economic development and social and cultural development of tourism destination management in promoting sustainable tourism. There are still some gaps for improvement, such as the need for sustainable ecological management to promote local sustainable tourism trends and enhance tourism experience development, which may require a long-term process of mitigation.

Keywords: Haikou (Hainan, China), influence relationship, sustainable tourism, tourism destination management

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Authors: M. Rafiur Rahman, M. Mezbah Uddin, Mohammad Irfan Uddin, M. Moinul Islam

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With a rapid development of offshore renewable energy industry, the research activities in regards of harnessing power from offshore wind and wave energy are increasing day by day. Integration of wind turbines and wave energy converters into one combined semi-submersible platform might be a cost-economy and beneficial option. In this paper, the coupled integrated dynamic analysis in the time domain (TD) of a simplified semi-submersible flap type concept (SFC) is accomplished via state-of-the-art numerical code referred as Simo-Riflex-Aerodyn (SRA). This concept is a combined platform consisting of a semi-submersible floater supporting a 5 MW horizontal axis wind turbine (WT) and three elliptical shaped flap type wave energy converters (WECs) on three pontoons. The main focus is to validate the numerical model of SFC with experimental results and perform the frequency domain (FD) and TD response analysis. The numerical analysis is performed using potential flow theory for hydrodynamics and blade element momentum (BEM) theory for aerodynamics. A variety of environmental conditions encompassing the functional & survival conditions for short-term sea (1-hour simulation) are tested to evaluate the sustainability of the SFC. The numerical analysis is performed in full scale. Finally, the time domain analysis of heave, pitch & surge motions is performed numerically using SRA and compared with the experimental results. Due to the simplification of the model, there are some discrepancies which are discussed in brief.

Keywords: coupled integrated dynamic analysis, SFC, time domain analysis, wave energy converters

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Authors: Pavana Basavakumar, Devadas Bhat

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Diabetes is a disease which often goes undiagnosed until its secondary effects are noticed. Early detection of the disease is necessary to avoid serious consequences which could lead to the death of the patient. Conventional invasive tests for screening of diabetes are mostly painful, time consuming and expensive. There’s also a risk of infection involved, therefore it is very essential to develop non-invasive methods to screen and estimate the level of blood glucose. Extensive research is going on with this perspective, involving various techniques that explore optical, electrical, chemical and thermal properties of the human body that directly or indirectly depend on the blood glucose concentration. Thus, non-invasive blood glucose monitoring has grown into a vast field of research. In this project, an attempt was made to device a prototype for screening of diabetes by measuring electrical impedance of the skin and building a model to predict a patient’s condition based on the measured impedance. The prototype developed, passes a negligible amount of constant current (0.5mA) across a subject’s index finger through tetra polar silver electrodes and measures output voltage across a wide range of frequencies (10 KHz – 4 MHz). The measured voltage is proportional to the impedance of the skin. The impedance was acquired in real-time for further analysis. Study was conducted on over 75 subjects with permission from the institutional ethics committee, along with impedance, subject’s blood glucose values were also noted, using conventional method. Nonlinear regression analysis was performed on the features extracted from the impedance data to obtain a model that predicts blood glucose values for a given set of features. When the predicted data was depicted on Clarke’s Error Grid, only 58% of the values predicted were clinically acceptable. Since the objective of the project was to screen diabetes and not actual estimation of blood glucose, the data was classified into three classes ‘NORMAL FASTING’,’NORMAL POSTPRANDIAL’ and ‘HIGH’ using linear Support Vector Machine (SVM). Classification accuracy obtained was 91.4%. The developed prototype was economical, fast and pain free. Thus, it can be used for mass screening of diabetes.

Keywords: Clarke’s error grid, electrical impedance of skin, linear SVM, nonlinear regression, non-invasive blood glucose monitoring, screening device for diabetes

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Authors: John Rothrock

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Background: The role of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) in the diagnosis and management of patients with acute ischemic stroke remains controversial. While many stroke subspecialist reserve TTE for selected patients, others consider the procedure obligatory for most or all acute stroke patients. This study was undertaken to assess the cost vs. benefit of 'routine' TTE. Methods: We examined a consecutive series of patients who were admitted to a single institution in 2019 for acute ischemic stroke and underwent TTE. We sought to determine the frequency with which the results of TTE led to a new diagnosis of cardioembolism, redirected therapeutic cerebrovascular management, and at least potentially influenced the short or long-term clinical outcome. We recorded the direct cost associated with TTE. Results: There were 1076 patients in the study group, all of whom underwent TTE. TTE identified an unsuspected source of possible/probable cardioembolism in 62 patients (6%), confirmed an initially suspected source (primarily endocarditis) in an additional 13 (1%) and produced findings that stimulated subsequent testing diagnostic of possible/probable cardioembolism in 7 patients ( < 1%). TTE results potentially influenced the clinical outcome in a total of 48 patients (4%). With a total direct cost of $1.51 million, the mean cost per case wherein TTE results potentially influenced the clinical outcome in a positive manner was $31,375. Diagnostically and therapeutically, TTE was most beneficial in 67 patients under the age of 55 who presented with 'cryptogenic' stroke, identifying patent foramen ovale in 21 (31%); closure was performed in 19. Conclusions: The utility of TTE in the setting of acute ischemic stroke is modest, with its yield greatest in younger patients with cryptogenic stroke. Given the greater sensitivity of transesophageal echocardiography in detecting PFO and evaluating the aortic arch, TTE’s role in stroke diagnosis would appear to be limited.

Keywords: cardioembolic, cost-benefit, stroke, TTE

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Authors: Johanna Lundqvist

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Third cycle supervision is a multifaceted and complex task for supervisors in higher education. It progresses over several years and is affected by several proximal and distal factors. It can result in positive learning outcomes for doctoral students and high-quality publications. However, not all doctoral students thrive during their doctoral studies; nor do they all complete their studies. This is problematic for both the individuals themselves as well as society at large: doctoral students are valuable and important in current research, future research and higher education. The aim of this literature review is to elucidate what responsible third cycle supervision can include and be in practice. The question posed is as follows: according to recent literature, what is it that characterises responsible third cycle supervision in which doctoral students can thrive and develop their research knowledge and skills? A literature review was conducted, and the data gathered from the literature regarding responsible third cycle supervision was analysed by means of a thematic analysis. The analysis was inspired by the notion of responsible inclusion outlined by David Mitchell. In this study, the term literature refers to research articles and regulations. The results (preliminary) show that responsible third cycle supervision is associated with a number of interplaying factors (themes). These are as follows: committed supervisors and doctoral students; a clear vision and research problem; an individual study plan; adequate resources; interaction processes and constructive feedback; creativity; cultural awareness; respect and research ethics; systematic quality work and improvement efforts; focus on overall third cycle learning goals; and focus on research presentations and publications. Thus, responsible third cycle supervision can occur if these factors are realized in practice. This literature review is of relevance to evaluators, researchers, and management in higher education, as well as third cycle supervisors.

Keywords: doctoral student, higher education, third cycle supervisors, third cycle programmes

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Authors: Kwaku Damoah

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The agricultural sector is characterized by continuous transformation, driven by factors such as demographic shifts, evolving consumer preferences, climate change, and migration trends. This dynamic environment presents complex challenges for key stakeholders including farmers, governments, and investors, who must navigate these changes to achieve optimal investment returns. To effectively predict market trends and uncover promising investment opportunities, a systematic, data-driven approach is essential. This paper introduces the Structural Evolution Index (SEI), a machine learning-based methodology. SEI is specifically designed to analyse long-term trends and forecast the potential of emerging agricultural products for investment. Versatile in application, it evaluates various agricultural metrics such as production, yield, trade, land use, and consumption, providing a comprehensive view of the evolution within agricultural markets. By harnessing data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAOSTAT), this study demonstrates the SEI's capabilities through Comparative Exploratory Analysis and evaluation of international trade in agricultural products, focusing on Malaysia and Singapore. The SEI methodology reveals intricate patterns and transitions within the agricultural sector, enabling stakeholders to strategically identify and capitalize on emerging markets. This predictive framework is a powerful tool for decision-makers, offering crucial insights that help anticipate market shifts and align investments with anticipated returns.

Keywords: agricultural investment, algorithm, comparative exploratory analytics, machine learning, market trends, predictive analytics, structural evolution index

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Authors: Gordon Weight, Hermione Tsoi, Patrick Cutinha, Sanjay Rajpal

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Aim: Greenlight-laser prostatectomy (GLLP) is becoming a popular treatment option for bladder outlet obstruction and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). In this retrospective study, we aim to explore the patient selection, perioperative morbidity, and functional outcomes of GLLP. Methods: Patients who underwent GLLP at a UK tertiary centre between June 2018 and November 2021 were included in this study. Retrospective data covering patient demographics, perioperative parameters and postoperative outcomes were collected using the electronic records systems. Results: 305 patients were included in this study with a mean age of 73 (range 30-90) years. The most common indication (62.6%) for the procedure was patient’s wish to be free from long-term catheters (LTC) or intermittent catheterisation (ISC), followed by failed medical therapy for LUTS (36.4%). 84.6% of patients had an ASA ≥2, and 32.1% took anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy. Inpatient stays were minimal, with the majority (68.2%) of patients were performed as day case, and only 10.5% of patients requiring more than a single night admission. The 3-month readmission rate was 10.8%, with the most common causes being haematuria and urinary-tract infection. The successful TWOC rate at follow up was 91.2%. Amongst the 19 patients who failed TWOC, 14 had LTC prior to the procedure and 4 had been performing ISC. Conclusions: Our study shows that GLLP is a safe and effective day case treatment and can be suitable for elderly and comorbid patients. Patients requiring LTC or ISC pre-operatively should be counselled carefully about the risk of not being catheter-free post procedure.

Keywords: urology, endourology, prostate, bladder outlet obstruction, laser

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Authors: Piyush Hajela

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Public spaces in Indian market places are vibrant, colorful and carry latent dimensions that make them attractive and popular gathering spaces. These markets satisfy the household needs of the people and also their social, cultural and traditional aspirations. Going to a market place for shopping in India is a great source of entertainment for the people. They would love to spend as much time as possible and stay for longer durations than otherwise required. It is this desire of the people that generates public spaces. Much of these public spaces emerge as squares, plazas, corners of varied shapes and sizes at different locations, and yet provide a conducive environment. Such public spaces grow organically and are discovered by the people themselves. Indian markets serve people of different culture, religion, caste, age, gender which keeps them alive all the year round. Indian is a diverse country and this diversity is reflected clearly in the market places. They hold the people together and promote harmony across cultures. Free access to these market places makes them magnets for social interaction. Public spaces are spread across a city and more or less have established their existence and prominence in a social set up. While few of them are created, others are discovered by the people themselves in their constant search for desirable interactive public spaces. These are the most sought after gathering spaces that have the quality of promoting social interaction, providing free accessibility, provide desirable scale etc. The paper aims at identifying these freely accessible public spaces and the dimensions within it that make these public spaces hold the people for significant duration of time. The dimensions present shall be judged through collective response of human senses in form of safety, comfort and so on through the expressions of the participants. The aim therefore would be to trace the freely accessible public spaces emerged in Indian markets and evaluate them for human response and behavior. The hierarchy of market places in the city of Bhopal is well established as, city center level, sub city-center level, community level, local and convenient level market places. While many city-centers are still referred to as the old or traditional or the core area of the city, the others are part of the planned city. These different levels of market places are studied for emerged public spaces. These emerged public spaces are then documented in detail for unveiling the dimensions they offer through, photographs, visual observations, questionnaires and response of the participants of these public spaces.

Keywords: human comfort, enclosure, safety, social interaction

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Authors: Yuliya Kovalenko

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Given the social nature of people, it is interesting to explore strategies of responding to psycho-traumatic situations in individuals of different ethnic and religious identity. This would allow to substantially expand the idea of human behavior in general, and coping behavior, in particular. This paper investigated the weighted impact of ethnic and religious identities on the patterns of coping behavior. This cross-cultural research empirically revealed intergroup differences in coping strategies and behavior in the samples of young students and teachers of different ethnic identities (Egyptians N=216 and Ukrainians N=109) and different religious identities (Egyptian Muslims N=147 and Christians, including Egyptian Christians N=68 and Ukrainian Christians N = 109). The empirical data were obtained using the questionnaires SACS and COPE. Statistical analysis and interpretation of the results were performed with IBM SPSS-23.0. It was found that, compared to the religious identity, the ethnic identity of the subjects appeared more predictive of coping behavior. It was shown that the constant exchange of information and the unity of biological and social contributed to a more homogeneous picture in the society where Christians and Muslims were integrated into a single cultural space. It was concluded that depending on their ethnic identity, individuals would form a specific hierarchy of coping strategies resulting in a specific pattern of coping with certain stressors. The Egyptian subjects revealed the following pattern of coping with various kinds of academic stress: 'seeking social support', 'problem solving', 'adapting', 'seeking information'. The coping pattern demonstrated by the Ukrainian subjects could be presented as 'seeking information', 'adapting', 'seeking social support', 'problem solving'. There was a tendency in the group of Egyptians to engage in more collectivist coping strategies (with the predominant coping strategy 'religious coping'), in contrast to the Ukrainians who displayed more individualistic coping strategies (with 'planning' and 'active coping' as the mostly used coping strategies). At the same time, it was obvious that Ukrainians should not be unambiguously attributed to the individualistic coping behavior due to their reliance on 'seeking social support' and 'social contact'. The final conclusion was also drawn from the peculiarities of developing religious identity, including religiosity, in Egyptians (formal religious education of both Muslims and Christians) and Ukrainians (more spontaneous process): Egyptians seem to learn to resort to the religious coping, which could be an indication that, in principle, it is possible and necessary to train individuals in desirable coping behavior.

Keywords: coping behavior, cross-cultural research, ethnic and religious identity, hierarchical pattern of coping

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Authors: Haggag H. Mohamed, Ghatass F. Zekry, Shalaby A. Elsayed

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Most sources of air pollution in Egypt are of anthropogenic origin. Alexandria Governorate is located at north of Egypt. The main contributing sectors of air pollution in Alexandria are industry, transportation and area source due to human activities. Alexandria includes more than 40% of the industrial activities in Egypt. Cement manufacture contributes a significant amount to the particulate pollution load. Alexandria Portland Cement Company (APCC) surrounding was selected to be the study area. APCC main kiln stack Total Suspended Particulate (TSP) continuous monitoring data was collected for assessment of dust emission control technology. Electro Static Precipitator (ESP) was fixed on the cement kiln since 2002. The collected data of TSP for first quarter of 2012 was compared to that one in first quarter of 2013 after installation of new bag house filter. In the present study, based on these monitoring data and metrological data a detailed air dispersion modeling investigation was carried out using the Industrial Source Complex Short Term model (ISC3-ST) to find out the impact of applying new bag house filter control technology on the neighborhood ambient air quality. The model results show a drastic reduction of the ambient TSP hourly average concentration from 44.94μg/m3 to 5.78μg/m3 which assures the huge positive impact on the ambient air quality by applying bag house filter technology on APCC cement kiln

Keywords: air pollution modeling, ambient air quality, baghouse filter, cement industry

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Authors: Simran Ballani

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The purpose of this paper is to call education professionals to implement etiquette and public speaking skills for preschoolers, primary, middle and higher school students. In this paper the author aims to present importance of etiquette learning and public speaking curriculum for preschoolers, reflect on experiences from implementation of the curriculum and discuss the effect of the said implementation on higher education/global job market. Author’s aim to introduce this curriculum was to provide children with innovative learning and all around development. This training of soft skills at kindergarten level can have a long term effect on their social behaviors which in turn can contribute to professional success once they are ready for campus recruitment/global job markets. Additionally, if preschoolers learn polite, appropriate behavior at early age, it will enable them to become more socially attentive and display good manners as an adult. It is easier to nurture these skills in a child rather than changing bad manners at adulthood. Preschool/Kindergarten education can provide the platform for children to learn these crucial soft skills irrespective of the ethnicity, economic or social background they come from. These skills developed at such early years can go a long way to shape them into better and confident individuals. Unfortunately, accessibility of the etiquette learning and public speaking skill education is not standardized in pre-primary or primary level and most of the time embedding into the kindergarten curriculum is next to nil. All young children should be provided with equal opportunity to learn these soft skills which are essential for finding their place in job market.

Keywords: Early Childhood Learning, , public speaking, , confidence building, , innovative learning

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Authors: Bensaid A., Mostephaoui T., Nedjai R.

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Climatic factors are the subject of considerable research, both methodologically and instrumentally. Under the effect of climate change, the approach to climate parameters with precision remains one of the main objectives of the scientific community. This is from the perspective of assessing climate change and its repercussions on humans and the environment. However, many regions of the world suffer from a severe lack of reliable instruments that can make up for this deficit. Alternatively, the use of empirical methods becomes the only way to assess certain parameters that can act as climate indicators. Several scientific methods are used for the evaluation of evapotranspiration which leads to its evaluation either directly at the level of the climatic stations or by empirical methods. All these methods make a point approach and, in no case, allow the spatial variation of this parameter. We, therefore, propose in this paper the use of three sources of information (network of weather stations of Meteo France, World Databases, and Moodis satellite images) to evaluate spatial evapotranspiration (ETP) using the Turc method. This first step will reflect the degree of relevance of the indirect (satellite) methods and their generalization to sites without stations. The spatial variation representation of this parameter using the geographical information system (GIS) accounts for the heterogeneity of the behaviour of this parameter. This heterogeneity is due to the influence of site morphological factors and will make it possible to appreciate the role of certain topographic and hydrological parameters. A phase of predicting the evolution over the medium and long term of evapotranspiration under the effect of climate change by the application of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios gives a realistic overview as to the contribution of aquatic systems to the scale of the region.

Keywords: climate change, ETP, MODIS, GIEC scenarios

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Authors: Joshi Rajiv, Shah Priyank, Thavkar Amit, Rohira Poonam, Mehta Suyog

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Topical formulation containing minoxidil and finasteride helps hair growth in the treatment of male androgenetic alopecia. The objective of this study is to compare the irritation potential of three conventional formulations of minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% topical solution of in human patch test. The study was a single centre, double blind, non-randomized controlled study in 53 healthy adult Indian subjects. Occlusive patch test for 24 hours was performed with three formulations of minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% topical solution. Products tested included aqueous based minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% (AnasureTM-F, Sun Pharma, India – Brand A), lipid based minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% (Brand B) and aqueous based minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% (Brand C). Isotonic saline 0.9% and 1% w/w sodium lauryl sulphate were included as negative control and positive control respectively. Patches were applied and removed after 24 hours. The skin reaction was assessed and clinically scored 24 hours after the removal of the patches under constant artificial daylight source using the Draize scale (0-4 points scale for erythema/dryness//wrinkles and for oedema). Follow-up was scheduled after one week to confirm recovery for any reaction. A combined mean score up to 2.0/8.0 indicates a product is “non-irritant” and a score between 2.0/8.0 and 4.0/8.0 indicates “mildly irritant” and a score above 4.0/8.0 indicates “irritant”. The procedure of the patch test followed the principles outlined by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) (IS 4011:2018; Methods of Test for safety evaluation of Cosmetics-3rd revision). Fifty three subjects with mean age 31.9 years (25 males and 28 females) participated in the study. The combined mean score ± standard deviation were: 0.06 ± 0.23 (Brand A), 0.81 ± 0.59 (Brand B), 0.38 ± 0.49 (Brand C), 2.92 ± 0.47 (positive control) and 0.0 ± 0.0 (Negative control). This means the score of Brand A (Sun Pharma product) was significantly lower than that of Brand B (p=0.001) and that of Brand C (p=0.001). The combined mean erythema score ± standard deviation were: 0.06 ± 0.23 (Brand A), 0.81 ± 0.59 (Brand B), 0.38 ± 0.49 (Brand C), 2.09 ± 0.4 (Positive control) and 0.0 ± 0.0 (Negative control). The mean erythema score of Brand A was significantly lower than Brand B (p=0.001) and that of Brand C (p=0.001). Any reaction observed at 24hours after patch removal subsided in a week. All the three topical formulations of minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% were non-irritant. Brand A of minoxidil 5% + finasteride 0.1% (Sun Pharma) was found to be the least irritant than Brand B and Brand C based on the combined mean score and mean erythema score in the human patch test as per the BIS, IS 4011:2018

Keywords: erythema, finasteride, irritation, minoxidil, patch test

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Authors: Vadim A. Kuznetsov, Anna M. Soldatova, Tatyana N. Enina, Elena A. Gorbatenko, Dmitrii V. Krinochkin

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The aim of the study was to evaluate potential parameters related with super-response to CRT. Methods: 60 CRT patients (mean age 54.3 ± 9.8 years; 80% men) with congestive heart failure (CHF) II-IV NYHA functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction < 35% were enrolled. At baseline, 1 month, 3 months and each 6 months after implantation clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters, NT-proBNP level were evaluated. According to the best decrease of left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) (mean follow-up period 33.7 ± 15.1 months) patients were classified as super-responders (SR) (n=28; reduction in LVESV ≥ 30%) and non-SR (n=32; reduction in LVESV < 30%). Results: At baseline groups differed in age (58.1 ± 5.8 years in SR vs 50.8 ± 11.4 years in non-SR; p=0.003), gender (female gender 32.1% vs 9.4% respectively; p=0.028), width of QRS complex (157.6 ± 40.6 ms in SR vs 137.6 ± 33.9 ms in non-SR; p=0.044). Percentage of LBBB was equal between groups (75% in SR vs 59.4% in non-SR; p=0.274). All parameters of mechanical dyssynchrony were higher in SR, but only difference in left ventricular pre-ejection period (LVPEP) was statistically significant (153.0 ± 35.9 ms vs. 129.3 ± 28.7 ms p=0.032). NT-proBNP level was lower in SR (1581 ± 1369 pg/ml vs 3024 ± 2431 pg/ml; p=0.006). The survival rates were 100% in SR and 90.6% in non-SR (log-rank test P=0.002). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that LVPEP (HR 1.024; 95% CI 1.004–1.044; P = 0.017), baseline NT-proBNP level (HR 0.628; 95% CI 0.414–0.953; P=0.029) and age at baseline (HR 1.094; 95% CI 1.009-1.168; P=0.30) were independent predictors for CRT super-response. ROC curve analysis demonstrated sensitivity 71.9% and specificity 82.1% (AUC=0.827; p < 0.001) of this model in prediction of super-response to CRT. Conclusion: Super-response to CRT is associated with better survival in long-term period. Presence of LBBB was not associated with super-response. LVPEP, NT-proBNP level, and age at baseline can be used as independent predictors of CRT super-response.

Keywords: cardiac resynchronisation therapy, superresponse, congestive heart failure, left bundle branch block

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Authors: Ina Nasto, Denada Sota, Kerol Sacaj, Brunilda Veshaj, Hajdar Kicaj

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Rocky shores are often used as models to describe the dynamics of biodiversity around the world, making them one of the most studied marine habitats and their communities. The variability in the number of species and the abundance of hard-bottom benthic animal communities on the coast of Triporti, north of the Bay of Vlora, Albania is described in relation to environmental variables using multivariate analysis. The purpose of this study is to monitor the species composition, quantitative characteristics, and seasonal variations of the benthic macroinvertebrate populations of the shallow rocky shores of the Triportit-Vlora area, as well as the assessment of the ecological condition of these populations. The rocky coast of Triport, with a length of 7 km, was divided into three sampling stations, with three transects each of 50m. The monitoring of benthic macroinvertebrates in these areas was carried out in two seasons, spring and summer (June and August 2021). In each station and sampling season, estimates of the total and average density for each species, the presence constant, and the assessment of biodiversity were calculated using the Shannon–Wiener and the Simpson index. The species composition, the quantitative characteristics of the populations, and the indicators mentioned above were analyzed in a comparative way, both between the seasons within one station and between the three stations with each other. Statistical processing of the data was carried out to analyze the changes between the seasons and between the sampling stations for the species composition, population density, as well as correlation between them. A total of 105 benthic macroinvertebrate taxa were found, dominated by Molluscs, Annelids, and Arthropods. The small density of species and the low degree of stability of the macrozoobenthic community are indicators of the poor ecological condition and environmental impact in the studied areas. Algal cover, the diversity of coastal microhabitats, and the degree of coastal exposure to waves play an important role in the characteristics of macrozoobenthos populations in the studied areas. Also, the rocky shores are of special interest because, in the infralittoral of these areas, there are dense kelp forests with Gongolaria barbata, Ericaria crinita as well as fragmented areas with Posidonia oceanica that reach the coast, priority habitats of special conservation importance in the Mediterranean.

Keywords: Macrozoobenthic communities, Shannon–Wiener, Triporti, Vlore, rocky shore

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Authors: Priyanwada I. Singhapathirana

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The public land ownership is a common phenomenon in many countries in the world however, the development approaches and the institutional structures are greatly diverse. The existing scholarship around public land development has been greatly limited to Europe and advanced Asian economies. Inferences of such studies seem to be inadequate and inappropriate to comprehend the peculiarities of public land development in developing Asian economies. The absence of critical inquiry on the public land ownership and the long-established institutional structures which govern the development has restrained these countries from institutional innovations. In this context, this research investigates the issues related to public land development and the institutional responses in Sri Lanka. This study introduces the concept of ‘Institutional Responsiveness’ in Public land development, which is conceptualized as the ability of the institutions to respond to the spatial, market and fiscal stimulus. The inquiry was carried out through in-depth interviews with five key informants from apex public agencies in order to explore the responsiveness of land institutions form decision-makers' perspectives. Further, the analysis of grey literature and recent media reports are used to supplement the analysis. As per the findings, long term abandonment of public lands and high transaction costs are some of the key issues in relation to public land development. The inability of the institutions to respond to the market and fiscal stimulus has left many potential public lands underutilized. As a result, the public sector itself and urban citizens have not been able to relish the benefits of the public lands in cities. Spatial analysis at the local scale is suggested for future studies in order to capture the multiple dimensions of the responsiveness of institutions to the development stimulus.

Keywords: institutions, public land, responsiveness, under-utilization

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Authors: M. Z. Bin Mohd Ghazali, N. C. Wilson, A. F. Bin Ahmad Fuad, M. A. H. B. Musa, M. U. Mohamad Sani, F. Zulkifli, M. S. Zainal Abidin

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Physical activity levels are low in Malaysia and this study was undertaken to determine if a four week work-based intervention program would be effective in changing physical activity levels. The study was conducted in a Malaysian Government Department and had three stages: baseline data collection, four-week intervention and two-month post intervention data collection. During the intervention and two-month post intervention phases, physical activity levels (determined by a pedometer) and basic health profiles (BMI, abdominal obesity, blood pressure) were measured. Staff (58 males, 47 females) with an average age of 33 years completed baseline data collection. Pedometer steps averaged 7,102 steps/day at baseline, although male step counts were significantly higher than females (7,861 vs. 6114). Health profiles were poor: over 50% were overweight/obese (males 66%, females 40%); hypertension (males 23%, females 6%); excess waist circumference (males 52%, females 17%). While 86 staff participated in the intervention, only 49 regularly reported their steps. There was a significant increase (17%) in average daily steps from 8,965 (week 1) to 10,436 (week 4). Unfortunately, participation in the intervention program was avoided by the less healthy staff. Two months after the intervention there was no significant difference in average steps/day, despite the fact that 89% of staff reporting they planned to make long-term changes to their lifestyle. An unexpected average increase of 2kg in body weight occurred in participants, although this was less than the 5.6kg in non-participants. A number of recommendations are made for future interventions, including the conclusion that pedometers were a useful tool and popular with participants.

Keywords: pedometers, walking, health, intervention

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Authors: Abeer K. Jameel, Harry Evdorides

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The Assessment of the road safety performance is a challengeable issue. This is not only because of the ineffective and unreliability of road and traffic crash data system but also because of its systematic character. Recent strategic plans and interventions implemented in some of the developed countries where a significant decline in the rate of traffic and road crashes considers that the road safety is a system. This system consists of four main elements which are: road user, road infrastructure, vehicles and speed in addition to other supporting elements such as the institutional framework and post-crash care system. To assess the performance of a system, it is required to assess all its elements. To present an understandable results of the assessment, it is required to present a unique term representing the performance of the overall system. This paper aims to develop an overall performance indicator which may be used to assess the road safety system. The variables of this indicators are the main elements of the road safety system. The data regarding these variables will be collected from the World Health Organization report. Multi-criteria analysis method is used to aggregate the four sub-indicators for the four variables. Two weighting methods will be assumed, equal weights and different weights. For the different weights method, the factor analysis method is used. The weights then will be converting to scores. The total score will be the overall indicator for the road safety performance in a national scale. This indicator will be used to compare and rank countries according to their road safety performance indicator. The country with the higher score is the country which provides most sustainable and effective interventions for successful road safety system. These indicator will be tested by comparing them with the aggregate real crash rate for each country.

Keywords: factor analysis, Multi-criteria analysis, road safety assessment, safe system indicator

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Authors: Sule Pallavi, Shah Priyank, Thavkar Amit, Rohira Poonam, Mehta Suyog

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Introduction: Minoxidil has been used topically for a long time to assist hair growth in the management of male androgenetic alopecia. The aim of this study was a comparative assessment of the irritation potential of three commercial formulations of minoxidil 2% topical solution in a human patch test. Methodology: The study was a non-randomized, double-blind, controlled, single-center study of 56 healthy adult Indian subjects. A 24-hour occlusive patch test was conducted with three formulations of minoxidil 2% topical solution. Products tested were aqueous-based minoxidil 2% (AnasureTM 2%, Sun Pharma, India – Brand A), alcohol-based minoxidil 2% (Brand B) and aqueous-based minoxidil 2% (Brand C). Isotonic saline 0.9% and 1% w/w sodium lauryl sulphate as a negative and positive control, respectively, were included. Patches were applied on the back, followed by removal after 24 hours. The Draize scale (0-4 points scale for erythema/dryness/wrinkles and for oedema) was used to evaluate and clinically score the skin reaction under constant artificial daylight 24 hours after the removal of the patches. The patch test was based on the principles outlined by Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) (IS 4011:2018; Methods of Test for safety evaluation of Cosmetics-3rd revision). A mean combined score up to 2.0/8.0 indicates that a product is “non-irritant,” and a score between 2.0/8.0 and 4.0/8.0 indicates “mildly irritant” and a score above 4.0/8.0 indicates “irritant”. In case of any skin reaction that was observed, a follow-up was planned after one week to confirm recovery. Results: The 56 subjects who participated in the study had a mean age of 28.7 years (28 males and 28 females). The combined mean score ± standard deviation was: 0.09 ± 0.29 (Brand A), 0.29± 0.53 (Brand B), 0.30 ± 0.46 (Brand C), 3.25 ± 0.77 (positive control) and 0.02 ± 0.13 (negative control). This mean score of Brand A (Sun Pharma) was significantly lower than that of Brand B (p=0.016) and that of Brand C (p=0.004). The mean erythema score ± standard deviation was: 0.09 ± 0.29 (Brand A), 0.27 ± 0.49 (Brand B), 0.30 ± 0.46 (Brand C), 2.5 ± 0.66 (positive control) and 0.02 ± 0.13 (negative control). The mean erythema score of Brand A (Sun Pharma) was significantly lower than that of Brand B (p=0.019) and that of Brand C (p=0.004). Reactions that were observed 24 hours after patch removal subsided in a week’s time. Conclusion: Based on the human patch test as per the BIS, IS 4011:2018, all the three topical formulations of minoxidil 2% were found to be non-irritant. Brand A of 2% minoxidil (Sun Pharma) was found to be the least irritant than Brand B and Brand C based on the combined mean score and mean erythema score.

Keywords: erythema, irritation, minoxidil, patch test

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Authors: Rowena Clemino Alcoba

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Thailand is host to the largest number of refugees in the region. The country has been one of the most accessible points of entry to refugees around the world because it has relatively lenient visa requirements, enabling asylum seekers to enter the country and subsequently search for legal assistance. However, because Thailand is not a signatory to the 1951 Geneva Convention on Refugees which governs the refugee status determination and safeguards several rights of the refugees, there are no national laws or administrative framework on the protection of refugees. Refugees are considered as illegal migrants, and certain groups are permitted to stay temporarily only upon executive discretion. Aside from the documented group of refugees from the Myanmar border, there are many others who came from different parts of the world. They are known as urban refugees believed to be in the thousands and are scattered in the impoverished areas of Bangkok and the suburbs. This study aims to advance understanding of the role of civil society organizations in supporting refugees, with particular focus on urban refugees. Using the method of triangulation in qualitative research, the study investigates the life journey of a refugee family from Pakistan, their difficulties and struggles to survive in perilous situations. The study presents the dynamics of how civil society works and collaborates to fill the gap for much-needed social services. It also discusses the depth and scope of the role of faith actors in the protection and support of this vulnerable sector. The engagement of civil society reveals framework and structure that aims to create long-term impact. The help provided is not merely monetary or material dole-outs but a platform for refugees to integrate with community, develop skills and make productive use of their time.

Keywords: asylum seeker, civil society, faith actors, refugees

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Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

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The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

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Authors: B. Mendonça, D. Sandwell

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The Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (MRSP) has suffered from serious water scarcity. Consequently, the most convenient solution has been building wells to extract groundwater from local aquifers. However, it requires constant vigilance to prevent over extraction and future events that can pose serious threat to the population, such as subsidence. Radar imaging techniques (InSAR) have allowed continuous investigation of such phenomena. The analysis of data in the present study consists of 23 SAR images dated from October 2007 to March 2011, obtained by the ALOS-1 spacecraft. Data processing was made with the software GMTSAR, by using the InSAR technique to create pairs of interferograms with ground displacement during different time spans. First results show a correlation between the location of 102 wells registered in 2009 and signals of ground displacement equal or lower than -90 millimeters (mm) in the region. The longest time span interferogram obtained dates from October 2007 to March 2010. As a result, from that interferogram, it was possible to detect the average velocity of displacement in millimeters per year (mm/y), and which areas strong signals have persisted in the MRSP. Four specific areas with signals of subsidence of 28 mm/y to 40 mm/y were chosen to investigate the phenomenon: Guarulhos (Sao Paulo International Airport), the Greater Sao Paulo, Itaquera and Sao Caetano do Sul. The coverage area of the signals was between 0.6 km and 1.65 km of length. All areas are located above a sedimentary type of aquifer. Itaquera and Sao Caetano do Sul showed signals varying from 28 mm/y to 32 mm/y. On the other hand, the places most likely to be suffering from stronger subsidence are the ones in the Greater Sao Paulo and Guarulhos, right beside the International Airport of Sao Paulo. The rate of displacement observed in both regions goes from 35 mm/y to 40 mm/y. Previous investigations of the water use at the International Airport highlight the risks of excessive water extraction that was being done through 9 deep wells. Therefore, it is affirmed that subsidence events are likely to occur and to cause serious damage in the area. This study could show a situation that has not been explored with proper importance in the city, given its social and economic consequences. Since the data were only available until 2011, the question that remains is if the situation still persists. It could be reaffirmed, however, a scenario of risk at the International Airport of Sao Paulo that needs further investigation.

Keywords: ground subsidence, Interferometric Satellite Aperture Radar (InSAR), metropolitan region of Sao Paulo, water extraction

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Authors: Elvira Hörandl

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The term “Geographical parthenogenesis” describes the phenomenon that asexual organisms usually occupy larger and more northern distribution areas than their sexual relatives and tend to colonize previously glaciated areas. Several case studies in flowering plants confirm the geographical pattern, but the causal factors behind the phenomenon are still unclear. Previous authors regarded predominant polyploidy in asexual (apomictic) plants as the main factor. However, the geographical pattern is not the rule for sexual polyploids. Recent research confirmed a previous hypothesis of the author that a combination of factors is acting: Although uniparental reproduction provides better colonization abilities, it is most efficient in combination with polyploidy. I will present results on case studies in the genus Ranunculus of both autopolyploid and allopolyploid species and species complexes reproducing via facultative apomixis. Polyploidy seems to contribute mainly to a better tolerance of colder climates and temperate extremes, whereby epigenetic flexibility, changes in gene expression, and phenotypic plasticity play an important role in occupying ecological niches under harsh conditions. Phylogenomic studies entangle complex hybrid origins of asexual taxa, which increases intragenomic heterozygosity of asexual plants. Interestingly, our results suggest an association of sexuality with abiotic stresses, specifically with light stress, which might explain that still, most plants in high altitudes and in southern areas retain sexual reproduction despite other climatic conditions that would favor apomictic plants. We conclude that geographical parthenogenesis results from the complex interplay of the genomic constitution, mode of reproduction and environmental factors.

Keywords: apomixis, polyploidy, hybridization, abiotic stress, epigenetics, phylogenomics

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Authors: Piyush Hajela

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The significance of public spaces is on a rise in Indian cities as a strong interaction space across cultures and community. It is a pertinent gathering space for people across age and gender, where the face keeps changing with time. A public space is directly related to the social dimension, people, comfort, safety, and security, that, it proposes to provide, as inherent qualities. The presence of these and other dimensions of space, together with related equitable environments, impart certain quality to a public space. The higher the optimum contents of these dimensions, the better the quality of public space. Public is represented by PEOPLE through society and community, and space is created by dimensions. Society contains children, women and the elderly, community is composed of social, and religious groups. These behave differently in a different setting and call for varied quality of spaces, created and generated. Public spaces are spread across a city and have more or less established their existence and prominence in a social set up. While few of them are created others are discovered by the people themselves in their constant search for desirable interactive public spaces. These are the most sought after gathering spaces that have the quality of promoting social interaction, providing free accessibility, provide desirable scale etc. The emergence of public space dates back to the times when people started forming communities, display cultures and traditions publicly, gathered for religious observations and celebrations, and address the society. Traditional cities and societies in India were feudal and orthodox in their nature and yet had public spaces. When the gathering of people at one point in a city became more frequent the point became more accessible and occupied. Baras (large courts, Chowks (public squares) and Maidans (large grounds) became well-known gathering spaces in the towns and cities. As the population grew such points grew in number, each becoming a public space in itself and with a different and definite social character. The author aims at studying the various dimensions of public spaces with which a public space has power to hold people for a significant period of time. The human senses here are note referred to as taste, sight, hearing, touch or smell, but how human senses collectively respond to when stationed in a given public space. The collectives may reflect in dimensions like comfort, safety, environment, freedom etc. Various levels of similar other responses would be studied through interviews, observations and other scientific methods for both qualitative and quantitative analysis.

Keywords: society, interaction, people, accessibility, comfort, enclosure

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Authors: Ian N. Robertson

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Alkali Silica Reaction (ASR) occurs in concrete when the alkali hydroxides (Na, K and OH) from the cement react with unstable silica, SiO2, in some types of aggregate. The gel that forms during this reaction will expand when it absorbs water, potentially leading to cracking and overall expansion of the concrete. ASR has resulted in accelerated deterioration of concrete highways, dams and other structures that are exposed to moisture during their service life. Concrete aggregates available in Hawaii have not demonstrated a history of ASR, however, accelerated laboratory tests using ASTM 1260 indicated a potential for ASR with some aggregates. Certain clients are now requiring import of aggregates from the US mainland at great expense. In order to assess the accuracy of the laboratory test results, a long-term field study of the potential for ASR in concretes made with Hawaiian aggregates was initiated in 2011 with funding from the US Federal Highway Administration and Hawaii Department of Transportation. Thirty concrete specimens were constructed of various concrete mixtures using aggregates from all Hawaiian aggregate sources, and some US mainland aggregates known to exhibit ASR expansion. The specimens are located in an open field site in Manoa valley on the Hawaiian Island of Oahu, exposed to relatively high humidity and frequent rainfall. A weather station at the site records the ambient conditions on a continual basis. After two years of monitoring, only one of the Hawaiian aggregates showed any sign of expansion. Ten additional specimens were fabricated with this aggregate to confirm the earlier observations. Admixtures known to mitigate ASR, such as fly ash and lithium, were included in some specimens to evaluate their effect on the concrete expansion. This paper describes the field evaluation program and presents the results for all forty specimens after four years of monitoring.

Keywords: aggregate, alkali silica reaction, concrete durability, field exposure

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Authors: Feng Huang, Carlos G. Ochoa, Haitao Zhao

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Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, is located at the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. It has great value in socioeconomic development and is internationally recognized as an important lacustrine and wetland ecosystem with abundant biodiversity. Impacted by ongoing climate change and anthropogenic activities, especially the regulation of the Three Gorges Reservoir since 2003, Poyang Lake has experienced significant water regime evolution, resulting in challenges for the management of water resources and the environment. Quantifying the contribution of hydrologic and topographic changes to water regime alteration is necessary for policymakers to design effective adaption strategies. Long term hydrologic data were collected and the back-propagation neural networks were constructed to simulate the lake water level. The impacts of hydrologic and topographic changes were differentiated through scenario analysis that considered pre-impact and post-impact hydrologic and topographic scenarios. The lake water regime was characterized by hydrologic indicators that describe monthly water level fluctuations, hydrologic features during flood and drought seasons, and frequency and rate of hydrologic variations. The results revealed different contributions of hydrologic and topographic changes to different features of the lake water regime.Noticeable changes were that the water level declined dramatically during the period of reservoir impoundment, and the drought was enhanced during the dry season. The hydrologic and topographic changes exerted a synergistic effect or antagonistic effect on different lake water regime features. The findings provide scientific reference for lacustrine and wetland ecological protection associated with water regime alterations.

Keywords: back-propagation neural network, scenario analysis, water regime, Poyang Lake

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