Search results for: plant growth models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 15136

Search results for: plant growth models

11086 Russian Spatial Impersonal Sentence Models in Translation Perspective

Authors: Marina Fomina

Abstract:

The paper focuses on the category of semantic subject within the framework of a functional approach to linguistics. The semantic subject is related to similar notions such as the grammatical subject and the bearer of predicative feature. It is the multifaceted nature of the category of subject that 1) triggers a number of issues that, syntax-wise, remain to be dealt with (cf. semantic vs. syntactic functions / sentence parts vs. parts of speech issues, etc.); 2) results in a variety of approaches to the category of subject, such as formal grammatical, semantic/syntactic (functional), communicative approaches, etc. Many linguists consider the prototypical approach to the category of subject to be the most instrumental as it reveals the integrity of denotative and linguistic components of the conceptual category. This approach relates to subject as a source of non-passive predicative feature, an element of subject-predicate-object situation that can take on a variety of semantic roles, cf.: 1) an agent (He carefully surveyed the valley stretching before him), 2) an experiencer (I feel very bitter about this), 3) a recipient (I received this book as a gift), 4) a causee (The plane broke into three pieces), 5) a patient (This stove cleans easily), etc. It is believed that the variety of roles stems from the radial (prototypical) structure of the category with some members more central than others. Translation-wise, the most “treacherous” subject types are the peripheral ones. The paper 1) features a peripheral status of spatial impersonal sentence models such as U menia v ukhe zvenit (lit. I-Gen. in ear buzzes) within the category of semantic subject, 2) makes a structural and semantic analysis of the models, 3) focuses on their Russian-English translation patterns, 4) reveals non-prototypical features of subjects in the English equivalents.

Keywords: bearer of predicative feature, grammatical subject, impersonal sentence model, semantic subject

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
11085 Supplementation of Yeast Cell Wall on Growth Performance in Broiler Reared under High Ambient Temperature

Authors: Muhammad Shahzad Hussain

Abstract:

Two major problems are facing generally by conventional poultry farming that is disease outbreaks and poor performance, which results due to improper management. To enhance the growth performance and efficiency of feed and reduce disease outbreaks, antibiotic growth promoters (AGPs) which are antibiotics at sub-therapeutic levels, are extensively used in the poultry industry. European Union has banned the use of antibiotics due to their presence in poultry products, development of antibiotic-resistant pathogens, and disturbance of normal gut microbial ecology. These residues cause serious health concerns and produce antibiotic resistance in pathogenic microbes in human beings. These issues strengthen the need for the withdrawal of AGPs from poultry feed. Nowadays, global warming is a major issue, and it is more critical in tropical areas like Pakistan, where heat stress is already a major problem. Heat stress leads to poor production performance, high mortality, immuno-suppression, and concomitant diseases outbreak. The poultry feed industry in Pakistan, like other countries of the world, has been facing shortages and high prices of local as well as imported feed ingredients. Prebiotics are potential replacer for AGP as prebiotics has properties to enhance the production potential and reduce the growth of harmful bacteria as well as stimulate the growth/activity of beneficial bacteria. The most commonly used prebiotics in poultry includes mannan oligosaccharide (MOS). MOS is an essential component of the yeast cell wall (YCW) (Saccharomyces cerevisiae); therefore, the YCW wall possesses prebiotic properties. The use of distillery yeast wall (YCW) has the potential to replace conventional AGPs and to reduce mortality due to heat stress as well as to bind toxins in the feed. The dietary addition of YCW has not only positive effects on production performance in poultry during normal conditions but during stressful conditions. A total of 168-day-old broilers were divided into 6 groups, each of which has 28 birds with 4 replicates (n=7).Yeast cell wall (YCW) supplementation @ 0%, 1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%, 3% from day 0 to 35. Heat stress was exposed from day 21 to 35 at 30±1.1ᵒC with relative humidity 65±5%. Zootechnical parameters like body weight, FCR, Organ development, and histomorphometric parameters were studied. A significant weight gain was observed at group C supplemented @ 1.5% YCW during the fifth week. Significant organ weight gain of Gizzard, spleen, small intestine, and cecum was observed at group C supplemented @ 1.5% YCW. According to morphometric indices Duodenum, Jejunum, and Ileum has significant villus height, while Jejunum and Ileum have also significant villus surface area in the group supplemented with 1.5% YCW. IEL count was only decreased in 1.5% YCW-fed group in jejunum and ileum, not in duodenum, that was less in 2% YCW-supplemented group. Dietary yeast cell wall of saccharomyces cerevisiae partially reduced the effects of high ambient temperature in terms of better growth and modified gut histology and components of mucosal immune response to better withstand heat stress in broilers.

Keywords: antibiotics, AGPs, broilers, MOS, prebiotics, YCW

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
11084 Deep Learning Strategies for Mapping Complex Vegetation Patterns in Mediterranean Environments Undergoing Climate Change

Authors: Matan Cohen, Maxim Shoshany

Abstract:

Climatic, topographic and geological diversity, together with frequent disturbance and recovery cycles, produce highly complex spatial patterns of trees, shrubs, dwarf shrubs and bare ground patches. Assessment of spatial and temporal variations of these life-forms patterns under climate change is of high ecological priority. Here we report on one of the first attempts to discriminate between images of three Mediterranean life-forms patterns at three densities. The development of an extensive database of orthophoto images representing these 9 pattern categories was instrumental for training and testing pre-trained and newly-trained DL models utilizing DenseNet architecture. Both models demonstrated the advantages of using Deep Learning approaches over existing spectral and spatial (pattern or texture) algorithmic methods in differentiation 9 life-form spatial mixtures categories.

Keywords: texture classification, deep learning, desert fringe ecosystems, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 87
11083 Biofiltration Odour Removal at Wastewater Treatment Plant Using Natural Materials: Pilot Scale Studies

Authors: D. Lopes, I. I. R. Baptista, R. F. Vieira, J. Vaz, H. Varela, O. M. Freitas, V. F. Domingues, R. Jorge, C. Delerue-Matos, S. A. Figueiredo

Abstract:

Deodorization is nowadays a need in wastewater treatment plants. Nitrogen and sulphur compounds, volatile fatty acids, aldehydes and ketones are responsible for the unpleasant odours, being ammonia, hydrogen sulphide and mercaptans the most common pollutants. Although chemical treatments of the air extracted are efficient, these are more expensive than biological treatments, namely due the use of chemical reagents (commonly sulphuric acid, sodium hypochlorite and sodium hydroxide). Biofiltration offers the advantage of avoiding the use of reagents (only in some cases, nutrients are added in order to increase the treatment efficiency) and can be considered a sustainable process when the packing medium used is of natural origin. In this work the application of some natural materials locally available was studied both at laboratory and pilot scale, in a real wastewater treatment plant. The materials selected for this study were indigenous Portuguese forest materials derived from eucalyptus and pinewood, such as woodchips and bark, and coconut fiber was also used for comparison purposes. Their physico-chemical characterization was performed: density, moisture, pH, buffer and water retention capacity. Laboratory studies involved batch adsorption studies for ammonia and hydrogen sulphide removal and evaluation of microbiological activity. Four pilot-scale biofilters (1 cubic meter volume) were installed at a local wastewater treatment plant treating odours from the effluent receiving chamber. Each biofilter contained a different packing material consisting of mixtures of eucalyptus bark, pine woodchips and coconut fiber, with added buffering agents and nutrients. The odour treatment efficiency was monitored over time, as well as other operating parameters. The operation at pilot scale suggested that between the processes involved in biofiltration - adsorption, absorption and biodegradation - the first dominates at the beginning, while the biofilm is developing. When the biofilm is completely established, and the adsorption capacity of the material is reached, biodegradation becomes the most relevant odour removal mechanism. High odour and hydrogen sulphide removal efficiencies were achieved throughout the testing period (over 6 months), confirming the suitability of the materials selected, and mixtures thereof prepared, for biofiltration applications.

Keywords: ammonia hydrogen sulphide and removal, biofiltration, natural materials, odour control in wastewater treatment plants

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
11082 Effect of Rotation Rate on Chemical Segregation during Phase Change

Authors: Nouri Sabrina, Benzeghiba Mohamed, Ghezal Abderrahmane

Abstract:

Numerical parametric study is conducted to study the effects of ampoule rotation on the flows and the dopant segregation in vertical Bridgman (VB) crystal growth. Calculations were performed in unsteady state. The extended Darcy model, which includes the time derivative and Coriolis terms, has been employed in the momentum equation. It was found that the convection, and dopant segregation can be affected significantly by ampoule rotation, and the effect is similar to that by an axial magnetic field. Ampoule rotation decreases the intensity of convection and stretches the flow cell axially. When the convection is weak, the flow can be suppressed almost completely by moderate ampoule rotation and the dopant segregation becomes diffusion-controlled. For stronger convection, the elongated flow cell by ampoule rotation may bring dopant mixing into the bulk melt reducing axial segregation at the early stage of the growth. However, if the cellular flow cannot be suppressed completely, ampoule rotation may induce larger radial segregation due to poor mixing.

Keywords: numerical simulation, heat and mass transfer, vertical solidification, chemical segregation

Procedia PDF Downloads 344
11081 Integrating Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Machine Learning in Lung Cancer Diagnosis

Authors: Mehrnaz Mostafavi

Abstract:

The assessment and categorization of incidental lung nodules present a considerable challenge in healthcare, often necessitating resource-intensive multiple computed tomography (CT) scans for growth confirmation. This research addresses this issue by introducing a distinct computational approach leveraging radiomics and deep-learning methods. However, understanding local services is essential before implementing these advancements. With diverse tracking methods in place, there is a need for efficient and accurate identification approaches, especially in the context of managing lung nodules alongside pre-existing cancer scenarios. This study explores the integration of text-based algorithms in medical data curation, indicating their efficacy in conjunction with machine learning and deep-learning models for identifying lung nodules. Combining medical images with text data has demonstrated superior data retrieval compared to using each modality independently. While deep learning and text analysis show potential in detecting previously missed nodules, challenges persist, such as increased false positives. The presented research introduces a Structured-Query-Language (SQL) algorithm designed for identifying pulmonary nodules in a tertiary cancer center, externally validated at another hospital. Leveraging natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning, the algorithm categorizes lung nodule reports based on sentence features, aiming to facilitate research and assess clinical pathways. The hypothesis posits that the algorithm can accurately identify lung nodule CT scans and predict concerning nodule features using machine-learning classifiers. Through a retrospective observational study spanning a decade, CT scan reports were collected, and an algorithm was developed to extract and classify data. Results underscore the complexity of lung nodule cohorts in cancer centers, emphasizing the importance of careful evaluation before assuming a metastatic origin. The SQL and NLP algorithms demonstrated high accuracy in identifying lung nodule sentences, indicating potential for local service evaluation and research dataset creation. Machine-learning models exhibited strong accuracy in predicting concerning changes in lung nodule scan reports. While limitations include variability in disease group attribution, the potential for correlation rather than causality in clinical findings, and the need for further external validation, the algorithm's accuracy and potential to support clinical decision-making and healthcare automation represent a significant stride in lung nodule management and research.

Keywords: lung cancer diagnosis, structured-query-language (SQL), natural language processing (NLP), machine learning, CT scans

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
11080 Quantification of Dispersion Effects in Arterial Spin Labelling Perfusion MRI

Authors: Rutej R. Mehta, Michael A. Chappell

Abstract:

Introduction: Arterial spin labelling (ASL) is an increasingly popular perfusion MRI technique, in which arterial blood water is magnetically labelled in the neck before flowing into the brain, providing a non-invasive measure of cerebral blood flow (CBF). The accuracy of ASL CBF measurements, however, is hampered by dispersion effects; the distortion of the ASL labelled bolus during its transit through the vasculature. In spite of this, the current recommended implementation of ASL – the white paper (Alsop et al., MRM, 73.1 (2015): 102-116) – does not account for dispersion, which leads to the introduction of errors in CBF. Given that the transport time from the labelling region to the tissue – the arterial transit time (ATT) – depends on the region of the brain and the condition of the patient, it is likely that these errors will also vary with the ATT. In this study, various dispersion models are assessed in comparison with the white paper (WP) formula for CBF quantification, enabling the errors introduced by the WP to be quantified. Additionally, this study examines the relationship between the errors associated with the WP and the ATT – and how this is influenced by dispersion. Methods: Data were simulated using the standard model for pseudo-continuous ASL, along with various dispersion models, and then quantified using the formula in the WP. The ATT was varied from 0.5s-1.3s, and the errors associated with noise artefacts were computed in order to define the concept of significant error. The instantaneous slope of the error was also computed as an indicator of the sensitivity of the error with fluctuations in ATT. Finally, a regression analysis was performed to obtain the mean error against ATT. Results: An error of 20.9% was found to be comparable to that introduced by typical measurement noise. The WP formula was shown to introduce errors exceeding 20.9% for ATTs beyond 1.25s even when dispersion effects were ignored. Using a Gaussian dispersion model, a mean error of 16% was introduced by using the WP, and a dispersion threshold of σ=0.6 was determined, beyond which the error was found to increase considerably with ATT. The mean error ranged from 44.5% to 73.5% when other physiologically plausible dispersion models were implemented, and the instantaneous slope varied from 35 to 75 as dispersion levels were varied. Conclusion: It has been shown that the WP quantification formula holds only within an ATT window of 0.5 to 1.25s, and that this window gets narrower as dispersion occurs. Provided that the dispersion levels fall below the threshold evaluated in this study, however, the WP can measure CBF with reasonable accuracy if dispersion is correctly modelled by the Gaussian model. However, substantial errors were observed with other common models for dispersion with dispersion levels similar to those that have been observed in literature.

Keywords: arterial spin labelling, dispersion, MRI, perfusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 366
11079 Assessment of the Impact of Traffic Safety Policy in Barcelona, 2010-2019

Authors: Lluís Bermúdez, Isabel Morillo

Abstract:

Road safety involves carrying out a determined and explicit policy to reduce accidents. In the city of Barcelona, through the Local Road Safety Plan 2013-2018, in line with the framework that has been established at the European and state level, a series of preventive, corrective and technical measures are specified, with the priority objective of reducing the number of serious injuries and fatalities. In this work, based on the data from the accidents managed by the local police during the period 2010-2019, an analysis is carried out to verify whether the measures established in the Plan to reduce the accident rate have had an effect or not and to what extent. The analysis focuses on the type of accident and the type of vehicles involved. Different count regression models have been fitted, from which it can be deduced that the number of serious and fatal victims of the accidents that have occurred in the city of Barcelona has been reduced as the measures approved by the authorities.

Keywords: accident reduction, count regression models, road safety, urban traffic

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
11078 Reading and Writing Memories in Artificial and Human Reasoning

Authors: Ian O'Loughlin

Abstract:

Memory networks aim to integrate some of the recent successes in machine learning with a dynamic memory base that can be updated and deployed in artificial reasoning tasks. These models involve training networks to identify, update, and operate over stored elements in a large memory array in order, for example, to ably perform question and answer tasks parsing real-world and simulated discourses. This family of approaches still faces numerous challenges: the performance of these network models in simulated domains remains considerably better than in open, real-world domains, wide-context cues remain elusive in parsing words and sentences, and even moderately complex sentence structures remain problematic. This innovation, employing an array of stored and updatable ‘memory’ elements over which the system operates as it parses text input and develops responses to questions, is a compelling one for at least two reasons: first, it addresses one of the difficulties that standard machine learning techniques face, by providing a way to store a large bank of facts, offering a way forward for the kinds of long-term reasoning that, for example, recurrent neural networks trained on a corpus have difficulty performing. Second, the addition of a stored long-term memory component in artificial reasoning seems psychologically plausible; human reasoning appears replete with invocations of long-term memory, and the stored but dynamic elements in the arrays of memory networks are deeply reminiscent of the way that human memory is readily and often characterized. However, this apparent psychological plausibility is belied by a recent turn in the study of human memory in cognitive science. In recent years, the very notion that there is a stored element which enables remembering, however dynamic or reconstructive it may be, has come under deep suspicion. In the wake of constructive memory studies, amnesia and impairment studies, and studies of implicit memory—as well as following considerations from the cognitive neuroscience of memory and conceptual analyses from the philosophy of mind and cognitive science—researchers are now rejecting storage and retrieval, even in principle, and instead seeking and developing models of human memory wherein plasticity and dynamics are the rule rather than the exception. In these models, storage is entirely avoided by modeling memory using a recurrent neural network designed to fit a preconceived energy function that attains zero values only for desired memory patterns, so that these patterns are the sole stable equilibrium points in the attractor network. So although the array of long-term memory elements in memory networks seem psychologically appropriate for reasoning systems, they may actually be incurring difficulties that are theoretically analogous to those that older, storage-based models of human memory have demonstrated. The kind of emergent stability found in the attractor network models more closely fits our best understanding of human long-term memory than do the memory network arrays, despite appearances to the contrary.

Keywords: artificial reasoning, human memory, machine learning, neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 269
11077 UPPAAL-based Design and Analysis of Intelligent Parking System

Authors: Abobaker Mohammed Qasem Farhan, Olof M. A. Saif

Abstract:

The demand for parking spaces in urban areas, particularly in developing countries, has led to a significant issue in the absence of sufficient parking spaces in crowded areas, which results in daily traffic congestion as drivers search for parking. This not only affects the appearance of the city but also has indirect impacts on the economy, society, and environment. In response to these challenges, researchers from various countries have sought technical and intelligent solutions to mitigate the problem through the development of smart parking systems. This paper aims to analyze and design three models of parking lots, with a focus on parking time and security. The study used computer software and Uppaal tools to simulate the models and determine the best among them. The results and suggestions provided in the paper aim to reduce the parking problems and improve the overall efficiency and safety of the parking process. The conclusion of the study highlights the importance of utilizing advanced technology to address the pressing issue of insufficient parking spaces in urban areas.

Keywords: preliminaries, system requirements, timed Au- tomata, Uppaal

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
11076 Evaluation of in vitro Inhibitory Effect of Enoxacin on Babesia and Theileria Parasites

Authors: Mosaab A. Omar, Mohammad Saleh Al-Aboody, Mohmed A. Rizk, Shimaa M. Elsayed, Ahmed ElSify, Naoaki Yokoyama, Ikuo Igarashi

Abstract:

Enoxacin is a broad-spectrum 6-fluoronaphthyridinone antibacterial agent (fluoroquinolones) structurally related to nalidixic acid used mainly in the treatment of urinary tract infections and gonorrhea. Also, it has been shown recently that it may have cancer inhibiting effect. The primary antibabesial effect of Enoxacin is due to inhibition of DNA gyrase subunit A, and DNA topoisomerase. In the present study, enoxacin was tested as a potent inhibitor against the in vitro growth of bovine and equine Piroplasms. The in vitro growth of five Babesia species that were tested was significantly inhibited (P<0.05) by micromolar concentrations of enoxacin (IC50 values= 13.5, 7.2, 7.5, and 24.2 µM for Babesia bovis, Babesia bigemina, Babesia caballi, and Theileria equi, respectively). Enoxacin IC50 values for Babesia and Theileria parasites were satisfactory as the drug is a potent antibacterial drug with minimum side effects. Therefore, enoxacin might be used for the treatment of Babesiosis and Theileriosis especially in case of mixed infections with bacterial diseases or in the case of animal sensitivity against diminazin toxicity.

Keywords: enoxacin, Babesia, Theileria, IC50 and dimenazin

Procedia PDF Downloads 462
11075 Convectory Policing-Reconciling Historic and Contemporary Models of Police Service Delivery

Authors: Mark Jackson

Abstract:

Description: This paper is based on an theoretical analysis of the efficacy of the dominant model of policing in western jurisdictions. Those results are then compared with a similar analysis of a traditional reactive model. It is found that neither model provides for optimal delivery of services. Instead optimal service can be achieved by a synchronous hybrid model, termed the Convectory Policing approach. Methodology and Findings: For over three decades problem oriented policing (PO) has been the dominant model for western police agencies. Initially based on the work of Goldstein during the 1970s the problem oriented framework has spawned endless variants and approaches, most of which embrace a problem solving rather than a reactive approach to policing. This has included the Area Policing Concept (APC) applied in many smaller jurisdictions in the USA, the Scaled Response Policing Model (SRPM) currently under trial in Western Australia and the Proactive Pre-Response Approach (PPRA) which has also seen some success. All of these, in some way or another, are largely based on a model that eschews a traditional reactive model of policing. Convectory Policing (CP) is an alternative model which challenges the underpinning assumptions which have seen proliferation of the PO approach in the last three decades and commences by questioning the economics on which PO is based. It is argued that in essence, the PO relies on an unstated, and often unrecognised assumption that resources will be available to meet demand for policing services, while at the same time maintaining the capacity to deploy staff to develop solutions to the problems which were ultimately manifested in those same calls for service. The CP model relies on the observations from a numerous western jurisdictions to challenge the validity of that underpinning assumption, particularly in fiscally tight environment. In deploying staff to pursue and develop solutions to underpinning problems, there is clearly an opportunity cost. Those same staff cannot be allocated to alternative duties while engaged in a problem solution role. At the same time, resources in use responding to calls for service are unavailable, while committed to that role, to pursue solutions to the problems giving rise to those same calls for service. The two approaches, reactive and PO are therefore dichotomous. One cannot be optimised while the other is being pursued. Convectory Policing is a pragmatic response to the schism between the competing traditional and contemporary models. If it is not possible to serve either model with any real rigour, it becomes necessary to taper an approach to deliver specific outcomes against which success or otherwise might be measured. CP proposes that a structured roster-driven approach to calls for service, combined with the application of what is termed a resource-effect response capacity has the potential to resolve the inherent conflict between traditional and models of policing and the expectations of the community in terms of community policing based problem solving models.

Keywords: policing, reactive, proactive, models, efficacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 480
11074 Mercury Contamination of Wetland Caused by Wastewater from Chlor-Alkali Industry

Authors: Mitsuo Yoshida

Abstract:

A significant mercury contamination of soil/sediment was unveiled by an environmental monitoring program in a wetland along La Plata River, west to Montevideo City, Uruguay. The mercury contamination was caused by industrial wastewater discharged from a chlor-alkali plant using a mercury-cell process. The contamination level is above 60 mg/kg in soil/sediment. Most of mercury (Hg) in the environment is inorganic, but some fractions are converted by bacteria to methylmercury (MeHg), a toxic organic compound. MeHg biologically accumulates through a food-chain and become serious public health risk. In order to clarify the contaminated part for countermeasure operation, an intervention value of mercury contamination of sediment/soil was defined as 15 mg/kg (total Hg) by the authority. According to the intervention value, mercury contaminated area in the La Plata site is approximately 48,280 m² and estimated total volume of contaminated sediments/soils was around 18,750 m³. The countermeasures to contaminated zone were proposed in two stages; (i) mitigation of risks for public health and (ii) site remediation. The first stage is an installation of fens and net around the contamination zone, for mitigating risks of exposure, inhalation, and intake. The food chain among wetland-river ecosystem was also interrupted by the installation of net and fens. The state of mercury contamination in La Plata site and plan of countermeasure was disclosed to local people and the public, and consensus on setting off-limit area was successfully achieved. Mass media also contribute to share the information on the contamination site. The cost for countermeasures was borne by the industry under the polluter-pay-principle.

Keywords: chlor-alkali plant, mercury contamination, polluter pay principle, Uruguay, wetland

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
11073 Design and Integration of a Renewable Energy Based Polygeneration System with Desalination for an Industrial Plant

Authors: Lucero Luciano, Cesar Celis, Jose Ramos

Abstract:

Polygeneration improves energy efficiency and reduce both energy consumption and pollutant emissions compared to conventional generation technologies. A polygeneration system is a variation of a cogeneration one, in which more than two outputs, i.e., heat, power, cooling, water, energy or fuels, are accounted for. In particular, polygeneration systems integrating solar energy and water desalination represent promising technologies for energy production and water supply. They are therefore interesting options for coastal regions with a high solar potential, such as those located in southern Peru and northern Chile. Notice that most of the Peruvian and Chilean mining industry operations intensive in electricity and water consumption are located in these particular regions. Accordingly, this work focus on the design and integration of a polygeneration system producing industrial heating, cooling, electrical power and water for an industrial plant. The design procedure followed in this work involves integer linear programming modeling (MILP), operational planning and dynamic operating conditions. The technical and economic feasibility of integrating renewable energy technologies (photovoltaic and solar thermal, PV+CPS), thermal energy store, power and thermal exchange, absorption chillers, cogeneration heat engines and desalination technologies is particularly assessed. The polygeneration system integration carried out seek to minimize the system total annual cost subject to CO2 emissions restrictions. Particular economic aspects accounted for include investment, maintenance and operating costs.

Keywords: desalination, design and integration, polygeneration systems, renewable energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 120
11072 Formulation and Characterization of NaCS-PDMDAAC Capsules with Immobilized Chlorella vulgaris for Phycoremediation of Palm Oil Mill Effluent

Authors: Quin Emparan, Razif Harun, Dayang R. A. Biak, Rozita Omar, Michael K. Danquah

Abstract:

Cultivation of immobilized microalgae cells is on the rise for biotechnological applications. In this study, cultivation of Chlorella vulgaris was carried out in the form of suspended free-cell and immobilized cells system. NaCS-PDMDAAC capsules were used to immobilize C. vulgaris. Initially, the synthesized NaCS with C. vulgaris culture were prepared at various concentration of 5- 20% (w/v) using a 6% hardening solution (PDMDAAC) to investigate the capsules' gel stability and suitability for microalgae cells growth. Then, the capsules produced from 15% NaCS with C. vulgaris culture were furthered investigated using 5%, 10%, and 15% (w/v) of PDMDAAC solution. The capsules' gel stability was evaluated through dissolution time and loss of uniform spherical shape of capsules, while suitability for microalgae cells growth was evaluated through the optical density of microalgae. In this study, the 15% NaCS-10% PDMDAAC capsules were found to be the most suitable to sustain the capsules' gel stability and microalgae cells growth in MLA. For that reason, the C. vulgaris immobilized in the 15% NaCS-10% PDMDAAC capsules were further characterized using physicochemical analysis in terms of morphological, carbon (C), hydrogen (H) and nitrogen (N), Fourier transform-infrared (FT-IR), scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDX), zeta potential and Brunauer-Emmet-Teller (BET) analyses. The results revealed that the presence of sulfonates in the synthesized NaCS and NaCS-PDMDAAC capsules without and with C. vulgaris proves that cellulose alcohol group was successfully bonded by sulfo group. Besides that, immobilized microalgae cells have a smaller cell size of 6.29 ± 1.09 µm and zeta potential of -11.93 ± 0.91 mV than suspended free-cells microalgae culture. It can be summarized that immobilization of C. vulgaris in the 15% NaCS-10% PDMDAAC capsules are relevant as a bioremediator for wastewater treatment purposes due to its suitable size of pore and capsules as well as structural and compositional properties.

Keywords: biological capsules, immobilized cultivation, microalgae, physico-chemical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 167
11071 Evaluation of the Predatory Mites' Manner against Root-Knot Nematode Using Water Agar Technique

Authors: Abdelrady K. Nasr, Ezzat M. A. Noweer, Mahmoud M. Ramadan

Abstract:

The root-knot nematode, Meloidogyne incognita Kofoid and White (Tylenchida: Heteroderidae), is one of the most important plant-parasitic nematodes attacking large numbers of vegetable and fruit plants in Egypt. Moreover, the soil predatory mites (Protogamasellopsisdenticus (Nasr), Gaeolaelaps longus (Hafez, El-Badry and Nasr) and Cosmolaelapskeni(Hafez, El-Badry and Nasr) are one of the excellent agents for biocontrol, this study was designed to evaluate the predation of the root-knot nematode (M. incognita) using water agar technique. The water agar medium was used as an experimental medium to rear both the mentioned mites and egg masses; these media allowed observe the development and predacious manner. The present study revealed that the predatory mites successfully developed and reproduced their egg masses. The mean life cycle of the tested mites P. denticus, G. longus, and C.keni were 10.33, 12.00, and 9.77 days, respectively. The mean total life span of the female of P. denticus, G. longus, and C. keni on egg-mases of M. incognita were obtained 63.44, 77.55 and 70.11 days, respectively, and the mean total fecundity of predatory mites, P. denticus, G.longus, and C. keni on egg-mases nematode were observed 62.66, 31.61 and 11.83 eggs, respectively. The mean total number of eggs laid by female P. denticus was significantly higher than other predatory mites, G. longus and C. keni. According to the obtained results, the tested predacious mites can be applied to combat the spreading of M. incognita in the agriculture field as a safe and effective biological control.

Keywords: biological control, plant-parasitic nematodes, predaceous mites, water agar

Procedia PDF Downloads 74
11070 Involvement of Stakeholders in the R&D and Innovation Process in Developing Country Context: An Analysis of the Nigeria Innovation System

Authors: B. O. Oyedoyin, M. O. Ilori, T. O. Oyebisi, B. A. Oluwale, O. O. Jegede

Abstract:

The study was designed to evaluate the business development and transfer of technologies to small manufacturing companies by research institutes in South Western Nigeria. The study covered all the industrial research institutions with headquarters in South Western Nigeria. The study showed that the involvement of scientists in innovation process was rated highest in the idea generation (4.14) and idea screening (4.29) phases; high in R&D (3.86) and fairly high in pilot plant development (2.71) and commercialization (2.43) phase. Their involvement was rated low in business analysis and development (2.14), and test marketing (2.29) phase. The involvement of engineers was rated highest in idea generation (3.28), fairly high in R&D (2.71), pilot plant development (2.57), and idea screening (2.40) phases. However, their involvement was rated low in business analysis and development (2.0), test marketing (2.0), and commercialization (1.28) phases. The involvement of technology marketers in innovation process was generally rated fairly high in R&D (2.7) and business analysis and development (2.6), and low in all the other phases of innovation. However, their involvement at IAR&T, FIIRO, and NIOMR in all the phases was rated very high (3.0-5.0). The involvement of entrepreneurs was generally rated from fairly high to low (2.7-2.3) in all the phases of innovation. The involvement of financial institutions in all the phases of innovation was generally rated low (1.28-1.71). In conclusion, the study showed that the involvement of stakeholders like entrepreneurs and financial institutions in technology packaging for commercialization is very low.

Keywords: research institutes, national innovation system, Nigeria, entrepreneurs, financial institution

Procedia PDF Downloads 421
11069 Effect of Cryogenic Pre-stretching on the Room Temperature Tensile Behavior of AZ61 Magnesium Alloy and Dominant Grain Growth Mechanisms During Subsequent Annealing

Authors: Umer Masood Chaudry, Hafiz Muhammad Rehan Tariq, Chung-soo Kim, Tea-sung Jun

Abstract:

This study explored the influence of pre-stretching temperature on the microstructural characteristics and deformation behavior of AZ61 magnesium alloy and its implications on grain growth during subsequent annealing. AZ61 alloy was stretched to 5% plastic strain along rolling (RD) and transverse direction (TD) at room (RT) and cryogenic temperature (-150 oC, CT) followed by annealing at 320 oC for 1 h to investigate the twinning and dislocation evolution and its consequent effect on the flow stress, plastic strain and strain hardening rate. Compared to RT-stretched samples, significant improvement in yield stress, strain hardening rate and moderate reduction in elongation to failure were witnessed for CT-stretched samples along RD and TD. The subsequent EBSD analysis revealed the increased fraction of fine {10-12} twins and nucleation of multiple {10-12} twin variants caused by higher local stress concentration at the grain boundaries in CT-stretched samples as manifested by the kernel average misorientation. This higher twin fraction and twin-twin interaction imposed the strengthening by restricting the mean free path of dislocations, leading to higher flow stress and strain hardening rate. During annealing of the RT/CT-stretched samples, the residual strain energy and twin boundaries were decreased due to static recovery, leading to a coarse-grained twin-free microstructure. Strain induced boundary migration (SBIM) was found to be the predominant mechanism governing the grain growth during annealing via movement of high angle grain boundaries.

Keywords: magnesium, twinning, twinning variant selection, EBSD, cryogenic deformation

Procedia PDF Downloads 62
11068 Use of Artificial Neural Networks to Estimate Evapotranspiration for Efficient Irrigation Management

Authors: Adriana Postal, Silvio C. Sampaio, Marcio A. Villas Boas, Josué P. Castro

Abstract:

This study deals with the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in an agricultural context, focusing on efficient irrigation management to meet the growing interest in the sustainable management of water resources. Given the importance of water in agriculture and its scarcity in many regions, efficient use of this resource is essential to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The methodology used involved the application of artificial intelligence techniques, specifically Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to predict ET₀ in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The models were trained and validated with meteorological data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), together with data obtained from a producer's weather station in the western region of Paraná. Two optimizers (SGD and Adam) and different meteorological variables, such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, were explored as inputs to the models. Nineteen configurations with different input variables were tested; amidst them, configuration 9, with 8 input variables, was identified as the most efficient of all. Configuration 10, with 4 input variables, was considered the most effective, considering the smallest number of variables. The main conclusions of this study show that MLP ANNs are capable of accurately estimating ET₀, providing a valuable tool for irrigation management in agriculture. Both configurations (9 and 10) showed promising performance in predicting ET₀. The validation of the models with cultivator data underlined the practical relevance of these tools and confirmed their generalization ability for different field conditions. The results of the statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Coefficient of Determination (R²), showed excellent agreement between the model predictions and the observed data, with MAE as low as 0.01 mm/day and 0.03 mm/day, respectively. In addition, the models achieved an R² between 0.99 and 1, indicating a satisfactory fit to the real data. This agreement was also confirmed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which evaluates the agreement of the predictions with the statistical behavior of the real data and yields values between 0.02 and 0.04 for the producer data. In addition, the results of this study suggest that the developed technique can be applied to other locations by using specific data from these sites to further improve ET₀ predictions and thus contribute to sustainable irrigation management in different agricultural regions. The study has some limitations, such as the use of a single ANN architecture and two optimizers, the validation with data from only one producer, and the possible underestimation of the influence of seasonality and local climate variability. An irrigation management application using the most efficient models from this study is already under development. Future research can explore different ANN architectures and optimization techniques, validate models with data from multiple producers and regions, and investigate the model's response to different seasonal and climatic conditions.

Keywords: agricultural technology, neural networks in agriculture, water efficiency, water use optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 40
11067 Fast Bayesian Inference of Multivariate Block-Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) Models for Large Data

Authors: Carlos Gonzales, Zaida Quiroz, Marcos Prates

Abstract:

Several spatial variables collected at the same location that share a common spatial distribution can be modeled simultaneously through a multivariate geostatistical model that takes into account the correlation between these variables and the spatial autocorrelation. The main goal of this model is to perform spatial prediction of these variables in the region of study. Here we focus on a geostatistical multivariate formulation that relies on sharing common spatial random effect terms. In particular, the first response variable can be modeled by a mean that incorporates a shared random spatial effect, while the other response variables depend on this shared spatial term, in addition to specific random spatial effects. Each spatial random effect is defined through a Gaussian process with a valid covariance function, but in order to improve the computational efficiency when the data are large, each Gaussian process is approximated to a Gaussian random Markov field (GRMF), specifically to the block nearest neighbor Gaussian process (Block-NNGP). This approach involves dividing the spatial domain into several dependent blocks under certain constraints, where the cross blocks allow capturing the spatial dependence on a large scale, while each individual block captures the spatial dependence on a smaller scale. The multivariate geostatistical model belongs to the class of Latent Gaussian Models; thus, to achieve fast Bayesian inference, it is used the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The good performance of the proposed model is shown through simulations and applications for massive data.

Keywords: Block-NNGP, geostatistics, gaussian process, GRMF, INLA, multivariate models.

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
11066 Reducing the Imbalance Penalty Through Artificial Intelligence Methods Geothermal Production Forecasting: A Case Study for Turkey

Authors: Hayriye Anıl, Görkem Kar

Abstract:

In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations since geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning, and, time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Natural Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was estimated for the first one and two weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
11065 Socio-Economic and Environmental Impact of Urban Sprawl: A Case Study Adigrat City, Tigray, Ethiopia

Authors: Fikre Belay Tekulu

Abstract:

This thesis presents the socio-economic and environmental impacts of urban sprawl in the case of Adigrat city, Tigray Region, Ethiopia. The main objective of this research is to assess major causes, trends and socio-economic and environmental impacts of the urban sprawl of Adigrat city. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative methods as questionnaires, interviews and observation used for data collection. Simple random sampling has been used to select the participants. The land use and land cover change for agricultural land and forest and grassland resource analysis is done with the aid of GIS. Urban sprawl is mainly caused by the rapid population growth, increase in the living and property cost in the core of the city, land demand and land speculation and the growth of transport and an increase in income of people and demand of more living space. The study indicates 15726.24 hectares (515.49 per cent) of new land added to the city jurisdiction from its adjacent Gantafeshum Wereda between 1986 and 2018. The population of Adigrat city increased by 9.045 per cent per year, while the city expanded 16.01 per cent per annum and the LCR was 0.0233 hectares per person between 1986 and 2018.Built-up area increased by 35.27 per cent per annum, while agricultural land, forests and grassland cover decreased by 1.68 per cent and 1.26 per cent per annum respectively in the last thirty three years. This rapid growth of urban sprawl brought social-economic and environmental change in the city that has been observed by the city residents. Therefore, the city administration should need strong, integrated, effective and efficient work, with its neighbor rural area and also done timely preparation, implementation, supervision, and evaluation of the structural plan of the city to bring out sustainable development of the city.

Keywords: cause, , trends, urban sprawl, land use land cover, GIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
11064 Mugil cephalus Presents a Feasible Alternative To Lates calcarifer Farming in Brackishwater: Evidence From Grey Mullet Mugil Cephalus Farming in Bangladesh

Authors: Asif Hasan

Abstract:

Among the reported suitable mariculture species in Bangladesh, seabass and mullet are the two most popular candidates due to their high market values. Several field studies conducted on the culture of seabass in Bangladesh, it still remains a challenge to commercially grow this species due to its exclusive carnivorous nature. In contrast, the grey mullet (M. cephalus) is a fast-growing, omnivorous euryhaline fish that has shown excellent growth in many areas including South Asia. Choice of a sustainable aquaculture technique must consider the productivity and yield as well as their environmental suitability. This study was designed to elucidate the ecologically suitable culture technique of M. cephalus in brakishwater ponds by comparing the biotic and abiotic components of pond ecosystem. In addition to growth parameters (yield, ADG, SGR, weight gain, FCR), Physicochemical parameters (Temperature, DO, pH, salinity, TDS, transparency, ammonia, and Chlorophyll-a concentration) and biological community composition (phytoplankton, zooplankton and benthic macroinvertebrates) were investigated from ponds under Semi-intensive, Improve extensive and Traditional culture system. While temperature were similar in the three culture types, ponds under improve-extensive showed better environmental conditions with significantly higher mean DO and transparency, and lower TDS and Chlorophyll-a. The abundance of zooplankton, phytoplankton and benthic macroinvertebrates were apparently higher in semi-intensive ponds. The Analysis of Similarity (ANOSIM) suggested moderate difference in the planktonic community composition. While the fish growth parameters of M. cephalus and total yield did not differ significantly between three systems, M. cephalus yield (kg/decimal) was apparently higher in semi-intensive pond due to high stocking density and intensive feeding. The results suggested that the difference between the three systems were due to more efficient utilization of nutrients in improve extensive ponds which affected fish growth through trophic cascades. This study suggested that different culture system of M. cephalus is an alternative and more beneficial method owing to its ecological and economic benefits in brackishwater ponds.

Keywords: Mugil cephalus, pond ecosystem, mariculture, fisheries management

Procedia PDF Downloads 66
11063 Economic Assessment of CO2-Based Methane, Methanol and Polyoxymethylene Production

Authors: Wieland Hoppe, Nadine Wachter, Stefan Bringezu

Abstract:

Carbon dioxide (CO2) utilization might be a promising way to substitute fossil raw materials like coal, oil or natural gas as carbon source of chemical production. While first life cycle assessments indicate a positive environmental performance of CO2-based process routes, a commercialization of CO2 is limited by several economic obstacles up to now. We, therefore, analyzed the economic performance of the three CO2-based chemicals methane and methanol as basic chemicals and polyoxymethylene as polymer on a cradle-to-gate basis. Our approach is oriented towards life cycle costing. The focus lies on the cost drivers of CO2-based technologies and options to stimulate a CO2-based economy by changing regulative factors. In this way, we analyze various modes of operation and give an outlook for the potentially cost-effective development in the next decades. Biogas, waste gases of a cement plant, and flue gases of a waste incineration plant are considered as CO2-sources. The energy needed to convert CO2 into hydrocarbons via electrolysis is assumed to be supplied by wind power, which is increasingly available in Germany. Economic data originates from both industrial processes and process simulations. The results indicate that CO2-based production technologies are not competitive with conventional production methods under present conditions. This is mainly due to high electricity generation costs and regulative factors like the German Renewable Energy Act (EEG). While the decrease in production costs of CO2-based chemicals might be limited in the next decades, a modification of relevant regulative factors could potentially promote an earlier commercialization.

Keywords: carbon capture and utilization (CCU), economic assessment, life cycle costing (LCC), power-to-X

Procedia PDF Downloads 287
11062 A Coupled Model for Two-Phase Simulation of a Heavy Water Pressure Vessel Reactor

Authors: D. Ramajo, S. Corzo, M. Nigro

Abstract:

A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.

Keywords: PHWR, CFD, thermo-hydraulic, two-phase flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 466
11061 The Influence of Infiltration and Exfiltration Processes on Maximum Wave Run-Up: A Field Study on Trinidad Beaches

Authors: Shani Brathwaite, Deborah Villarroel-Lamb

Abstract:

Wave run-up may be defined as the time-varying position of the landward extent of the water’s edge, measured vertically from the mean water level position. The hydrodynamics of the swash zone and the accurate prediction of maximum wave run-up, play a critical role in the study of coastal engineering. The understanding of these processes is necessary for the modeling of sediment transport, beach recovery and the design and maintenance of coastal engineering structures. However, due to the complex nature of the swash zone, there remains a lack of detailed knowledge in this area. Particularly, there has been found to be insufficient consideration of bed porosity and ultimately infiltration/exfiltration processes, in the development of wave run-up models. Theoretically, there should be an inverse relationship between maximum wave run-up and beach porosity. The greater the rate of infiltration during an event, associated with a larger bed porosity, the lower the magnitude of the maximum wave run-up. Additionally, most models have been developed using data collected on North American or Australian beaches and may have limitations when used for operational forecasting in Trinidad. This paper aims to assess the influence and significance of infiltration and exfiltration processes on wave run-up magnitudes within the swash zone. It also seeks to pay particular attention to how well various empirical formulae can predict maximum run-up on contrasting beaches in Trinidad. Traditional surveying techniques will be used to collect wave run-up and cross-sectional data on various beaches. Wave data from wave gauges and wave models will be used as well as porosity measurements collected using a double ring infiltrometer. The relationship between maximum wave run-up and differing physical parameters will be investigated using correlation analyses. These physical parameters comprise wave and beach characteristics such as wave height, wave direction, period, beach slope, the magnitude of wave setup, and beach porosity. Most parameterizations to determine the maximum wave run-up are described using differing parameters and do not always have a good predictive capability. This study seeks to improve the formulation of wave run-up by using the aforementioned parameters to generate a formulation with a special focus on the influence of infiltration/exfiltration processes. This will further contribute to the improvement of the prediction of sediment transport, beach recovery and design of coastal engineering structures in Trinidad.

Keywords: beach porosity, empirical models, infiltration, swash, wave run-up

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
11060 Experimental Investigation of Heat Transfer and Scale Growth Characteristics of Crystallisation Scale in Agitation Tank

Authors: Prasanjit Das, M .M. K. Khan, M. G. Rasul, Jie Wu, I. Youn

Abstract:

Crystallisation scale occurs when dissolved minerals precipitate from an aqueous solution. To investigate the crystallisation scale growth of normal solubility salt, a lab-scale agitation tank with and without baffles were used as a benchmark using potassium nitrate as the test fluid. Potassium nitrate (KNO3) solution in this test leads to crystallisation scale on heat transfer surfaces. This experimental investigation has focused on the effect of surface crystallisation of potassium nitrate on the low-temperature heat exchange surfaces on the wall of the agitation tank. The impeller agitation rate affects the scaling rate at the low-temperature agitation wall and it shows a decreasing scaling rate with an increasing agitation rate. It was observed that there was a significant variation of heat transfer coefficients and scaling resistance coefficients with different agitation rate as well as with varying impeller size, tank with and without baffles and solution concentration.

Keywords: crystallisation, heat transfer coefficient, scale, resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 179
11059 Transport Related Air Pollution Modeling Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: K. D. Sharma, M. Parida, S. S. Jain, Anju Saini, V. K. Katiyar

Abstract:

Air quality models form one of the most important components of an urban air quality management plan. Various statistical modeling techniques (regression, multiple regression and time series analysis) have been used to predict air pollution concentrations in the urban environment. These models calculate pollution concentrations due to observed traffic, meteorological and pollution data after an appropriate relationship has been obtained empirically between these parameters. Artificial neural network (ANN) is increasingly used as an alternative tool for modeling the pollutants from vehicular traffic particularly in urban areas. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to model traffic air pollution, specifically CO concentration using neural networks. In case of CO concentration, two scenarios were considered. First, with only classified traffic volume input and the second with both classified traffic volume and meteorological variables. The results showed that CO concentration can be predicted with good accuracy using artificial neural network (ANN).

Keywords: air quality management, artificial neural network, meteorological variables, statistical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 518
11058 Understanding Cyber Kill Chains: Optimal Allocation of Monitoring Resources Using Cooperative Game Theory

Authors: Roy. H. A. Lindelauf

Abstract:

Cyberattacks are complex processes consisting of multiple interwoven tasks conducted by a set of agents. Interdictions and defenses against such attacks often rely on cyber kill chain (CKC) models. A CKC is a framework that tries to capture the actions taken by a cyber attacker. There exists a growing body of literature on CKCs. Most of this work either a) describes the CKC with respect to one or more specific cyberattacks or b) discusses the tools and technologies used by the attacker at each stage of the CKC. Defenders, facing scarce resources, have to decide where to allocate their resources given the CKC and partial knowledge on the tools and techniques attackers use. In this presentation CKCs are analyzed through the lens of covert projects, i.e., interrelated tasks that have to be conducted by agents (human and/or computer) with the aim of going undetected. Various aspects of covert project models have been studied abundantly in the operations research and game theory domain, think of resource-limited interdiction actions that maximally delay completion times of a weapons project for instance. This presentation has investigated both cooperative and non-cooperative game theoretic covert project models and elucidated their relation to CKC modelling. To view a CKC as a covert project each step in the CKC is broken down into tasks and there are players of which each one is capable of executing a subset of the tasks. Additionally, task inter-dependencies are represented by a schedule. Using multi-glove cooperative games it is shown how a defender can optimize the allocation of his scarce resources (what, where and how to monitor) against an attacker scheduling a CKC. This study presents and compares several cooperative game theoretic solution concepts as metrics for assigning resources to the monitoring of agents.

Keywords: cyber defense, cyber kill chain, game theory, information warfare techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 137
11057 Regression Analysis in Estimating Stream-Flow and the Effect of Hierarchical Clustering Analysis: A Case Study in Euphrates-Tigris Basin

Authors: Goksel Ezgi Guzey, Bihrat Onoz

Abstract:

The scarcity of streamflow gauging stations and the increasing effects of global warming cause designing water management systems to be very difficult. This study is a significant contribution to assessing regional regression models for estimating streamflow. In this study, simulated meteorological data was related to the observed streamflow data from 1971 to 2020 for 33 stream gauging stations of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Ordinary least squares regression was used to predict flow for 2020-2100 with the simulated meteorological data. CORDEX- EURO and CORDEX-MENA domains were used with 0.11 and 0.22 grids, respectively, to estimate climate conditions under certain climate scenarios. Twelve meteorological variables simulated by two regional climate models, RCA4 and RegCM4, were used as independent variables in the ordinary least squares regression, where the observed streamflow was the dependent variable. The variability of streamflow was then calculated with 5-6 meteorological variables and watershed characteristics such as area and height prior to the application. Of the regression analysis of 31 stream gauging stations' data, the stations were subjected to a clustering analysis, which grouped the stations in two clusters in terms of their hydrometeorological properties. Two streamflow equations were found for the two clusters of stream gauging stations for every domain and every regional climate model, which increased the efficiency of streamflow estimation by a range of 10-15% for all the models. This study underlines the importance of homogeneity of a region in estimating streamflow not only in terms of the geographical location but also in terms of the meteorological characteristics of that region.

Keywords: hydrology, streamflow estimation, climate change, hydrologic modeling, HBV, hydropower

Procedia PDF Downloads 124