Search results for: generalized autoregressive score model

Authors: Tara Gurung, Suprina Prajapati

Abstract:

Health and well being of people is a crucial for accomplishing sustainable development goals of any country. The present study focuses on quality of life of patients undergoing hemodialysis. Hemodialysis is a life sustaining treatment for patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD). Hemodialysis can bring about significant impairment in health related quality of life (HRQOL). The purpose of this study was to assess the quality of life of hemodialysis patients undergoing hemodialysis. A descriptive cross-sectional research design was utilized in total 100 samples using random sampling technique. The findings revealed that the total quality of life of the patients was 30.41±3.99 out of 100. The total physical component score was statistically significant with education status of the patients where p value for t test was 0.03 (p=0.03) and occupation of the patients where p value for the ANOVA test was 0.007 (p=0.007). The study recommended that it would be better if awareness programs regarding chronic kidney disease and life style modification in hemodialysis patients is given to the patients so that it would help patients to maintain the HRQOL.

Keywords: health and well bing, hemodialysis, patients quality of life

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

Abstract:

This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, Nile delta, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Donya Ashtiani Haghighi, Amirali Baniasadi

Abstract:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease has spread abruptly all over the world since the end of 2019. Computed tomography (CT) scans and X-ray images are used to detect this disease. Different Deep Neural Network (DNN)-based diagnosis solutions have been developed, mainly based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), to accelerate the identification of COVID-19 cases. However, CNNs lose important information in intermediate layers and require large datasets. In this paper, Capsule Network (CapsNet) is used. Capsule Network performs better than CNNs for small datasets. Accuracy of 0.9885, f1-score of 0.9883, precision of 0.9859, recall of 0.9908, and Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.9948 are achieved on the Capsule-based framework with hyperparameter tuning. Moreover, different dropout rates are investigated to decrease overfitting. Accordingly, a dropout rate of 0.1 shows the best results. Finally, we remove one convolution layer and decrease the number of trainable parameters to 146,752, which is a promising result.

Keywords: capsule network, dropout, hyperparameter tuning, classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Feddaoui Amina

Abstract:

Income smoothing represents an attempt on the part of the company's management to reduce variations in earnings through the manipulation of the accounting principles. In this study, we aimed to measure income smoothing practices in a sample of 30 French joint stock companies during the period (2007-2009), we used Dummy variables method and “ECKEL” model to measure income smoothing practices and Binomial test accourding to SPSS program, to confirm or refute our hypothesis. This study concluded that there are no significant statistical indicators of income smoothing practices in the sample studied of French companies during the period (2007-2009), so the income series in the same sample studied of is characterized by stability and non-volatility without any intervention of management through accounting manipulation. However, this type of accounting manipulation should be taken into account and efforts should be made by control bodies to apply Eckel model and generalize its use at the global level.

Keywords: income, smoothing, 'Eckel', French companies

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Mourad Zmami Oussema BenSalha

Abstract:

The current research aims to assess empirically the reaction of private investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia using a sample of 548 firms operating in manufacturing industries between 1997 and 2002. The micro-econometric model we estimate is based on an accelerator-profit specification investment model increased by two variables that measure the variation and the volatility of exchange rates. Estimates using the system the GMM method reveal that the effects of the exchange rate depreciation on investment are negative since it increases the cost of imported capital goods. Turning to the exchange rate volatility, as measured by the GARCH (1,1) model, our findings assign a significant role to the exchange rate uncertainty in explaining the sluggishness of private investment in Tunisia in the full sample of firms. Other estimation attempts based on various sub samples indicate that the elasticities of investment relative to the exchange rate volatility depend upon many firms’ specific characteristics such as the size and the ownership structure.

Keywords: investment, exchange rate volatility, manufacturing firms, system GMM, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 404

Authors: Jiaxin Shi, Kaifeng Hao, Qingfan An, Zeng Peng

Abstract:

Due to a lack of data sources and data processing techniques, it has always been difficult to quantify public space quality, which includes urban construction quality and how it is perceived by people, especially in large urban areas. This study proposes a quantitative research method based on the consideration of emotional health and physical health of the built environment. It highlights the low quality of public areas in Tianjin, China, where there are many negative elements. Deep learning technology is then used to measure how effectively people perceive urban areas. First, this work suggests a deep learning model that might simulate how people can perceive the quality of urban construction. Second, we perform semantic segmentation on street images to identify visual elements influencing scene perception. Finally, this study correlated the scene perception score with the proportion of visual elements to determine the surrounding environmental elements that influence scene perception. Using a small-scale labeled Tianjin street view data set based on transfer learning, this study trains five negative spatial discriminant models in order to explore the negative space distribution and quality improvement of urban streets. Then it uses all Tianjin street-level imagery to make predictions and calculate the proportion of negative space. Visualizing the spatial distribution of negative space along the Tianjin Inner Ring Road reveals that the negative elements are mainly found close to the five key districts. The map of Tianjin was combined with the experimental data to perform the visual analysis. Based on the emotional assessment, the distribution of negative materials, and the direction of street guidelines, we suggest guidance content and design strategy points of the negative phenomena in Tianjin street space in the two dimensions of perception and substance. This work demonstrates the utilization of deep learning techniques to understand how people appreciate high-quality urban construction, and it complements both theory and practice in urban planning. It illustrates the connection between human perception and the actual physical public space environment, allowing researchers to make urban interventions.

Keywords: human perception, public space quality, deep learning, negative elements, street images

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Amina Boukelkoul, Rahil Boukelkoul, Leila Maachia

Abstract:

The cumulative vapors emitted from the service stations may represent a hazard to the environment and the population. Besides fuel spill and their penetration into deep soil layers are the main contributors to soil and ground-water contamination in the vicinity of the petrol stations. The amount of the effluents from the service stations depends on strategy of maintenance and the policy adopted by the management to reduce the pollution. One key of the proposed approach is the idea of managing the effluents from the service stations which can be captured via use of a finite state Markov chain. Such a model can be embedded within a probabilistic operation and maintenance simulation reflecting the action to be done. In this paper, an approach of estimating a probabilistic percentage of the amount of emitted pollutants is presented. The finite state Markov model is used for decision problems with number of determined periods (life cycle) to predict the amount according to various options of operation.

Keywords: environment, markov modeling, pollution, service station

Procedia PDF Downloads 464

Authors: Miroslaw Wendeker, Piotr Kacejko, Marcin Szlachetka, Mariusz Duk

Abstract:

This paper discusses a model of fuel economy in a city bus driving in a dynamic urban environment. Rapid changes in speed result in a constantly changing kinetic energy accumulated in a bus mass and an increased fuel consumption due to hardly recuperated kinetic energy. The model is based on the bench test results achieved from chassis dynamometer, airport and city street researches. The verified model was applied to simulate the behavior of a bus during the Japanese JE05 Emission Test Cycle. The fuel consumption was calculated for three separate research stages, i.e. urban, downtown and motorway. The simulations were performed for several values of vehicle mass and electrical load applied to on-board devices. The research results show fuel consumption is impacted by driving dynamics.

Keywords: city bus, heavy duty vehicle, Japanese JE05 test cycle, kinetic energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Mahmoud Mohamed Emam

Abstract:

In Oman the number of students referred for reading disabilities is on the rise. Schools serve these students by placement in the so-called learning disabilities unit. Recently the author led a strategic project to train teachers on the use of curriculum based measurement to identify students with reading disabilities in Oman. Additional the project involved training teachers to use phonemic awareness based activities to improve reading skills of those students. Phonemic awareness refers to the ability to notice, think about, and work with the individual sounds in words. We know that a student's skill in phonemic awareness is a good predictor of later reading success or difficulty. Using multiple baseline design across four participants the current studies investigated the effectiveness of using phonemic awareness based activities to improve decoding skills of third grade students referred for reading disabilities in Oman. During treatment students received phonemic awareness based activities that were designed to fulfill the idiosyncratic characteristics of Arabic language phonology as well as orthography. Results indicated that the phonemic awareness based activities were effective in substantially increasing the number of correctly decoded word for all four participants. Maintenance of strategy effects was evident for the weeks following the termination of intervention for the four students. In addition, the effects of intervention generalized to decoding novel words for all four participants.

Keywords: learning disabilities, phonemic awareness, third graders, Oman

Procedia PDF Downloads 635

Authors: N. S. Achour, M. Hamdaoui, S. Ben Nasrallah

Abstract:

Wicking and evaporation of water in porous knitted fabrics is investigated by combining experimental and analytical approaches: The standard wicking model from Lucas and Washburn is enhanced to account for evaporation and gravity effects. The goal is to model the effect of gravity and evaporation on wicking using simple analytical expressions and investigate the influence of fabrics geometrical parameters, such as porosity and thickness on evaporation impact on maximum reachable height values. The results show that fabric properties have a significant influence on evaporation effect. In this paper, an experimental study of determining water kinetics from different knitted fabrics were gravimetrically investigated permitting the measure of the mass and the height of liquid rising in fabrics in various atmospheric conditions. From these measurements, characteristic pore parameters (capillary radius and permeability) can be determined.

Keywords: evaporation, experimental study, geometrical parameters, model, porous knitted fabrics, wicking

Procedia PDF Downloads 578

Authors: Jadwiga Fila, Mateusz Jezowski, Pawel Poszytek

Abstract:

The outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic started the times of crisis full of uncertainty, especially in the field of transnational cooperation projects based on the international mobility of their participants. This is notably the case of Erasmus+ Program for higher education, which is the flagship European initiative boosting cooperation between educational institutions, businesses, and other actors, enabling students and staff mobility, as well as strategic partnerships between different parties. The aim of this abstract is to study whether competences 4.0 are able to empower Erasmus+ project leaders in sustaining their international cooperation in times of global crisis, widespread online learning, and common project disruption or cancellation. The concept of competences 4.0 emerged from the notion of the industry 4.0, and it relates to skills that are fundamental for the current labor market. For the aim of the study presented in this abstract, four main 4.0 competences were distinguished: digital, managerial, social, and cognitive competence. The hypothesis for the study stipulated that the above-mentioned highly-developed competences may act as a protective shield against the pandemic challenges in terms of projects’ sustainability and continuation. The objective of the research was to assess to what extent individual competences are useful in managing projects in times of crisis. For this purpose, the study was conducted, involving, among others, 141 Polish higher education project leaders who were running their cooperation projects during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic (Mar-Nov 2020). The research explored the self-perception of the above-mentioned competences among Erasmus+ project leaders and the contextual data regarding the sustainability of the projects. The quantitative character of data permitted validation of scales (Cronbach’s Alfa measure), and the use of factor analysis made it possible to create a distinctive variable for each competence and its dimensions. Finally, logistic regression was used to examine the association of competences and other factors on project status. The study shows that the project leaders’ competence profile attributed the highest score to digital competence (4.36 on the 1-5 scale). Slightly lower values were obtained for cognitive competence (3.96) and managerial competence (3.82). The lowest score was accorded to one specific dimension of social competence: adaptability and ability to manage stress (1.74), which proves that the pandemic was a real challenge which had to be faced by project coordinators. For higher education projects, 10% were suspended or prolonged because of the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas 90% were undisrupted (continued or already successfully finished). The quantitative analysis showed a positive relationship between the leaders’ levels of competences and the projects status. In the case of all competences, the scores were higher for project leaders who finished projects successfully than for leaders who suspended or prolonged their projects. The research demonstrated that, in the demanding times of the COVID-19 pandemic, competences 4.0, to a certain extent, do play a significant role in the successful management of Erasmus+ projects. The implementation and sustainability of international educational projects, despite mobility and sanitary obstacles, depended, among other factors, on the level of leaders’ competences.

Keywords: Competences 4.0, COVID-19 pandemic, Erasmus+ Program, international education, project sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Ayse Berivan Bakan, Senay Karadag Arli, Ela Varol

Abstract:

Objective: The present study aims to identify nursing students’ attitudes toward older people. Methods: This descriptive study was conducted with 166 nursing department students enrolled in a four-year undergraduate program in a university located in Eastern Turkey. The participants were chosen using convenience sampling method, and the data were collected through the Descriptive Characteristics Form and Turkish version of Kogan's Attitudes toward Old People Scale (KAOP). Results: It was found that the students participating in the study had positive attitudes toward old people, and the mean scores of those who wanted to work with old people after graduation were significantly high (p<0.05). Scale mean scores according to receiving Gerontology Nursing course showed that the score difference between the two groups was not statistically significant. Conclusion: This study found that nursing students’ attitudes toward older people were positive. Cultural features of the region where the study was conducted are considered to contribute to this result.

Keywords: older people, attitudes, gerontology, nursing students, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Chuan Yang, Jing Bie, Zhong Wang, Panagiotis Psimoulis

Abstract:

Contemporary studies investigating the association between the spatial configuration of the urban network and economic activities at the street level were mostly conducted within space syntax conceptual framework. These findings supported the theory of 'movement economy' and demonstrated the impact of street configuration on the distribution of pedestrian movement and land-use shaping, especially retail activities. However, the effects varied between different urban contexts. In this paper, the relationship between economic activity distribution and the urban configurational characters was examined at the segment level. In the study area, three kinds of neighbourhood types, urban, suburban, and rural neighbourhood, were included. And among all neighbourhoods, three kinds of urban network form, 'tree-like', grid, and organic pattern, were recognised. To investigate the nested effects of urban configuration measured by space syntax approach and urban context, multilevel zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models were constructed. Additionally, considering the spatial autocorrelation, spatial lag was also concluded in the model as an independent variable. The random effect ZINB model shows superiority over the ZINB model or multilevel linear (ML) model in the explanation of economic activities pattern shaping over the urban environment. And after adjusting for the neighbourhood type and network form effects, connectivity and syntax centrality significantly affect economic activities clustering. The comparison between accumulative and new established economic activities illustrated the different preferences for economic activity location choice.

Keywords: space syntax, economic activities, multilevel model, Chinese city

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Apolinar Picado, Ronald Solís, Rafael Gamero

Abstract:

The thin-layer drying characteristics of instant coffee solution were investigated in a laboratory tunnel dryer. Drying experiments were carried out at three temperatures (80, 100 and 120 °C) and an air velocity of 1.2 m/s. Drying experimental data obtained are fitted to six (6) thin-layer drying models using the non-linear least squares regression analysis. The acceptability of the thin-layer drying model has been based on a value of the correlation coefficient that should be close to one, and low values for root mean square error (RMSE) and chi-square (x²). According to this evaluation, the most suitable model for describing drying process of thin-layer instant coffee solution is the Page model. Further, the effective moisture diffusivity and the activation energy were computed employing the drying experimental data. The effective moisture diffusivity values varied from 1.6133 × 10⁻⁹ to 1.6224 × 10⁻⁹ m²/s over the temperature range studied and the activation energy was estimated to be 162.62 J/mol.

Keywords: activation energy, diffusivity, instant coffee, thin-layer models

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Retno A. S. Lestari, Wahyudi B. Sediawan, Siti Syamsiah, Sarto

Abstract:

Sulfur-oxidizing bacteria were isolated and then grown on snakefruits seeds forming biofilm. Their performance in sulfide removal were experimentally observed. Snakefruit seeds were then used as packing material in a cylindrical tube. Biological treatment of hydrogen sulfide from biogas was investigated using biofilm on packed bed of snakefruits seeds. Biogas containing 27,9512 ppm of hydrogen sulfide was flown through the bed. Then the hydrogen sulfide concentrations in the outlet at various times were analyzed. A set of simple kinetics model for the rate of the sulfide removal and the bacterial growth was proposed. The axial sulfide concentration gradient in the flowing liquid are assumed to be steady-state. Mean while the biofilm grows on the surface of the seeds and the oxidation takes place in the biofilm. Since the biofilm is very thin, the sulfide concentration in the biofilm is assumed to be uniform. The simultaneous ordinary differential equations obtained were then solved numerically using Runge-Kutta method. The acuracy of the model proposed was tested by comparing the calcultion results using the model with the experimental data obtained. It turned out that the model proposed can be applied to describe the removal of sulfide liquid using bio-filter in packed bed. The values of the parameters were also obtained by curve-fitting. The biofilter could remove 89,83 % of the inlet of hydrogen sulfide from biogas for 2.5 h, and optimum loading of 8.33 ml/h.

Keywords: Sulfur-oxidizing bacteria, snakefruits seeds, biofilm, packing material, biogas

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Shuo Liu, Dan Liu

Abstract:

In the field of named entity recognition, most of the research has been conducted around simple entities. However, for nested named entities, which still contain entities within entities, it has been difficult to identify them accurately due to their boundary ambiguity. In this paper, a hierarchical recognition model is constructed based on the grammatical structure and semantic features of Chinese text for boundary calculation based on lexical features. The analysis is carried out at different levels in terms of granularity, semantics, and lexicality, respectively, avoiding repetitive work to reduce computational effort and using the semantic features of words to calculate the boundaries of entities to improve the accuracy of the recognition work. The results of the experiments carried out on web-based microblogging data show that the model achieves an accuracy of 86.33% and an F1 value of 89.27% in recognizing nested named entities, making up for the shortcomings of some previous recognition models and improving the efficiency of recognition of nested named entities.

Keywords: coarse-grained, nested named entity, Chinese natural language processing, word embedding, T-SNE dimensionality reduction algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: A. Bruce Janati, Muhammad Umair Khan, Naif Alghassab, Ibrahim Alzeir, Assem Mahmoud, M. Sammour

Abstract:

Rationale: Lennox-Gastaut syndrome(LGS) is an electro-clinical syndrome composed of the triad of mental retardation, multiple seizure types, and the characteristic generalized slow spike-wave complexes in the EEG. In this article, we report on two patients with LGS whose brain MRI showed dysgenesis of corpus callosum(CC). We review the literature and stress the role of CC in the genesis of secondary bilateral synchrony(SBS). Method: This was a clinical study conducted at King Khalid Hospital. Results: The EEG was consistent with LGS in patient 1 and unilateral slow spike-wave complexes in patient 2. The MRI showed hypoplasia of the splenium of CC in patient 1, and global hypoplasia of CC combined with Joubert syndrome in patient 2. Conclusion: Based on the data, we proffer the following hypotheses: 1-Hypoplasia of CC interferes with functional integrity of this structure. 2-The genu of CC plays a pivotal role in the genesis of secondary bilateral synchrony. 3-Electrodecremental seizures in LGS emanate from pacemakers generated in the brain stem, in particular the mesencephalon projecting abnormal signals to the cortex via thalamic nuclei. 4-Unilateral slow spike-wave complexes in the context of mental retardation and multiple seizure types may represent a variant of LGS, justifying neuroimaging studies.

Keywords: EEG, Lennox-Gastaut syndrome, corpus callosum , MRI

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Amer Alzaidi

Abstract:

Islamic banking is an alternative solution to those people who are worried about Riba (interest) in all forms of transaction while using banking services and products. Today, banks around the world have Islamic banking services and products the in one form or another. The use of Islamic banking is not only restricted to Muslims world but have reached to non-Muslim countries like UK, USA, Australia and Canada as well. Compared to conventional banking, the adoption rate of Islamic banking is low because of unawareness of customers, financial cost, and performance issues. The interest in Islamic banking by financial institutions as well as low adoption rate motivated us to look this matter into detail in order to identify Critical Success Factors, which are positively motivating customers to use Islamic banking services/ products and Critical Risk Factors, which have significantly negative effect on the adoption of Islamic banking. The CSFs and CRFs will be initially identified from the literature using methodology called Systematic Literature Review, followed by the empirical analysis of these factors using survey research method. Later, we will develop Islamic Banking Adoption Model (IBAM) to help banks to assess their Islamic banking strategic positioning and to improve their operational efficiency. The first potential contribution of this research study will be the development of IBAM protocol that will provide us guidelines for conducting our actual SLR. The second major contribution of this research will be the development of Islamic Banking Adoption Model (IBAM), and the third contribution of this research study will be the evaluation of the developed IBMA.

Keywords: Islamic banking, adoption model, protocol, technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Hassan Athari, Abdurrahim Bolukbasi, Dogan Ciloglu

Abstract:

This study represented the respiratory alveoli system, and determined the trajectory of inhaled particles more accurately using the modified three-dimensional model with deformable walls of alveoli. The study also considered the tissue tension in the model to demonstrate the effect of lung. Tissue tensions are transferred by the lung parenchyma and produce the pressure gradient. This load expands the alveoli and establishes a sub-ambient (vacuum) pressure within the lungs. Thus, at the alveolar level, the flow field and movement of alveoli wall lead to an integrated effect. In this research, we assume that the three-dimensional alveolus has a visco-elastic tissue (walls). For accurate investigation of pulmonary tissue mechanical properties on particle transport and alveolar flow field, the actual relevance between tissue movement and airflow is solved by two-way FSI (Fluid Structure Interaction) simulation technique in the alveolus. Therefore, the essence of real simulation of pulmonary breathing mechanics can be achieved by developing a coupled FSI computational model. We, therefore conduct a series of FSI simulations over a range of tissue models and breathing rates. As a result, the fluid flows and streamlines have changed during present flexible model against the rigid models and also the two-way coupling particle trajectories have changed against the one-way particle coupling.

Keywords: FSI, two-way particle coupling, alveoli, CDF

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Luis Felipe Brito-Gaona, Emma M. Iglesias

Abstract:

There is a growing literature that studies the main determinants and drivers of inequality and economic growth in several countries, using panel data and different estimation methods (fixed effects, Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) and Two Stages Least Squares (TSLS)). Recently, it was studied the evolution of these variables in the period 1980-2009 in the 18 countries of Latin-America and it was found that one of the main variables that explained their evolution was Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We extend this study to the year 2015 in the same 18 countries in Latin-America, and we find that FDI does not have a significant role anymore, while we find a significant negative and positive effect of schooling levels on inequality and economic growth respectively. We also find that the point estimates associated with human capital are the largest ones of the variables included in the analysis, and this means that an increase in human capital (measured by schooling levels of secondary education) is the main determinant that can help to reduce inequality and to increase economic growth in Latin-America. Therefore, we advise that economic policies in Latin-America should be directed towards increasing the level of education. We use the methodologies of estimating by fixed effects, GMM and TSLS to check the robustness of our results. Our conclusion is the same regardless of the estimation method we choose. We also find that the international recession in the Latin-American countries in 2008 reduced significantly their economic growth.

Keywords: economic growth, human capital, inequality, Latin-America

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Abdulbaset Saad, Adel Younis, Zuomin Dong

Abstract:

For design optimization with high-dimensional expensive problems, an effective and efficient optimization methodology is desired. This work proposes a series of modification to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving computation Intensive Black-Box Problems. The proposed methodology is called Radial Basis Meta-Model Algorithm Assisted Differential Evolutionary (RBF-DE), which is a global optimization algorithm based on the meta-modeling techniques. A meta-modeling assisted DE is proposed to solve computationally expensive optimization problems. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) model is used as a surrogate model to approximate the expensive objective function, while DE employs a mechanism to dynamically select the best performing combination of parameters such as differential rate, cross over probability, and population size. The proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark functions and real life practical applications and problems. The test results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is promising and performs well compared to other optimization algorithms. The proposed algorithm is capable of converging to acceptable and good solutions in terms of accuracy, number of evaluations, and time needed to converge.

Keywords: differential evolution, engineering design, expensive computations, meta-modeling, radial basis function, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 391

Authors: Li Zhang, Yuehong Su

Abstract:

Lightpipe as a mature solar light tube technique has been employed worldwide. Accurately assessing the performance of lightpipe and evaluate daylighting available has been a challenging topic. Previous research had used regression model and computational simulation methods to estimate the performance of lightpipe. However, due to the nonlinear nature of solar light transferring in lightpipe, the methods mentioned above express inaccurate and time-costing issues. In the present study, a neural network model as an alternative method is investigated to predict the transmittance of lightpipe. Four types of commercial lightpipe with bended angle 0°, 30°, 45° and 60° are discussed under clear, intermediate and overcast sky conditions respectively. The neural network is generated in MATLAB by using the outcomes of an optical software Photopia simulations as targets for networks training and testing. The coefficient of determination (R²) for each model is higher than 0.98, and the mean square error (MSE) is less than 0.0019, which indicate the neural network strong predictive ability and the use of the neural network method could be an efficient technique for determining the performance of lightpipe.

Keywords: neural network, bended lightpipe, transmittance, Photopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Nina Bijedic, Drazena Gaspar, Mirsad Hadzikadic

Abstract:

Corruption is an influential and widespread problem. One part of it is so-called petty corruption, related to large-scale bribe giving by ordinary citizens trying to influence the works of public administration or public services. As it is with all means of corruption, petty corruption is related to the level of democracy (or administration efficiency) in a society. The developed model captures some of the factors related to corruptive behavior, as well as people’s attitude towards petty corruption. It has four basic elements: user’s perception of corruption in the society of interest, the influence of social interactions, the influence of penalizing mechanism, and influence of campaigns against petty corruption. The model is agent-based, developed in NetLogo, with a lot of random settings that provide a wider scope of responses. Interactions of different settings for variables of elements provide insight into the influence of each element on attitude towards petty corruption, as well as petty corruptive behavior.

Keywords: agent-based model, attitude, influence, petty corruption, society

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Yufei Peng, Zhen Qin, Jianbe Li, Jidong Long

Abstract:

The thermal cathode is widely used in accelerators, FELs and kinds of vacuum electronics. However, emission nonuniformity exists due to surface profile, material distribution, temperature variation, crystal orientation, etc., which will cause intrinsic emittance growth, brightness decline, envelope size augment, device performance deterioration or even failure. To understand how emittance is manipulated by emission nonuniformity, an intrinsic emittance model consisting of contributions from macro and micro surface nonuniformity is developed analytically based on general thermal emission model at temperature limited regime according to a real 3mm cathode. The model shows relative emittance increased about 50% due to temperature variation, and less than 5% from several kinds of micro surface nonuniformity which is much smaller than other research. Otherwise, we also calculated emittance growth combining with Monte Carlo method and PIC simulation, experiments of emission uniformity and emittance measurement are going to be carried out separately.

Keywords: thermal cathode, electron emission fluctuation, intrinsic emittance, surface nonuniformity, cathode lifetime

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Safayat Ali Shaikh

Abstract:

Software has been developed for optimal cropping pattern in an irrigation project considering land constraint, water availability constraint and pick up flow constraint using modified Simplex Algorithm. Artificial Neural Network Models (ANN) have been developed to predict rainfall. AR (1) model used to generate 1000 years rainfall data to train the ANN. Simulation has been done with expected rainfall data. Eight number crops and three types of soil class have been considered for optimization model. Area under each crop and each soil class have been quantified using Modified Simplex Algorithm to get optimum net return. Efficacy of the software has been tested using data of large irrigation project in India.

Keywords: artificial neural network, large irrigation project, modified simplex algorithm, optimal cropping pattern

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: M. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Delowar Hossain, Abu N. M. Wahid

Abstract:

The principal aim of the study is to find out a way to effectively manage the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather risks, and fund shortage. To hedge price volatility, farmers sometimes make contracts with agro-traders but fail to protect themselves effectively due to not having legal framework for such contracts. The study extensively reviews existing literature and find evidence that the majority studies either deal with price volatility or weather risks. If we could address these risks through a single model, it would be more useful to both the farmers and traders. Intrinsically, the authors endeavor in this regard, and the key contribution of this study basically lies in it. Initially, we conduct a small survey aspiring to identify the shortcomings of existing contracts. Later, we propose a model encompassing forward and insurance contracts together where forward contract will be used to hedge price volatility and insurance contract will be used to protect weather risks. Contribution/Originality: The study adds to the existing literature through proposing an integrated model comprising of forward contract and crop insurance which will support both farmers and traders to cope with the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather hazards, and fund shortage. JEL Classifications: O13, Q13

Keywords: agriculture, forward contract, insurance contract, risk management, model

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Bagher Bayat, Wouter Verhoef, Behnaz Arabi, Christiaan Van der Tol

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to follow the canopy reflectance patterns in response to soil water deficit and to detect trends of changes in biophysical and biochemical parameters of grass (Poa pratensis species). We used visual interpretation, imaging spectroscopy and radiative transfer model inversion to monitor the gradual manifestation of water stress effects in a laboratory setting. Plots of 21 cm x 14.5 cm surface area with Poa pratensis plants that formed a closed canopy were subjected to water stress for 50 days. In a regular weekly schedule, canopy reflectance was measured. In addition, Leaf Area Index (LAI), Chlorophyll (a+b) content (Cab) and Leaf Water Content (Cw) were measured at regular time intervals. The 1-D bidirectional canopy reflectance model SAIL, coupled with the leaf optical properties model PROSPECT, was inverted using hyperspectral measurements by means of an iterative optimization method to retrieve vegetation biophysical and biochemical parameters. The relationships between retrieved LAI, Cab, Cw, and Cs (Senescent material) with soil moisture content were established in two separated groups; stress and non-stressed. To differentiate the water stress condition from the non-stressed condition, a threshold was defined that was based on the laboratory produced Soil Water Characteristic (SWC) curve. All parameters retrieved by model inversion using canopy spectral data showed good correlation with soil water content in the water stress condition. These parameters co-varied with soil moisture content under the stress condition (Chl: R2= 0.91, Cw: R2= 0.97, Cs: R2= 0.88 and LAI: R2=0.48) at the canopy level. To validate the results, the relationship between vegetation parameters that were measured in the laboratory and soil moisture content was established. The results were totally in agreement with the modeling outputs and confirmed the results produced by radiative transfer model inversion and spectroscopy. Since water stress changes all parts of the spectrum, we concluded that analysis of the reflectance spectrum in the VIS-NIR-MIR region is a promising tool for monitoring water stress impacts on vegetation.

Keywords: hyperspectral remote sensing, model inversion, vegetation responses, water stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Racholsan Raj Nirmal, B. S. V. Patnaik, R. Jayaganthan

Abstract:

The deformation behaviour of additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy under low strains, high strain rates and elevated temperature conditions is essential to analyse and predict its response against dynamic loading such as impact and thermomechanical fatigue. The constitutive relation of Johnson-Cook is used to capture the strain rate sensitivity and thermal softening effect in AlSi10Mg alloy. Johnson-Cook failure model is widely used for exploring damage mechanics and predicting the fracture in many materials. In this present work, Johnson-Cook material and damage model parameters for additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy have been determined numerically from four types of uniaxial tensile test. Three different uniaxial tensile tests with dynamic strain rates (0.1, 1, 10, 50, and 100 s^-1) and elevated temperature tensile test with three different temperature conditions (450 K, 500 K and 550 K) were performed on 3D printed AlSi10Mg alloy in ABAQUS/Explicit. Hexahedral elements are used to discretize tensile specimens and fracture energy value of 43.6 kN/m was used for damage initiation. Levenberg Marquardt optimization method was used for the evaluation of Johnson-Cook model parameters. It was observed that additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy has shown relatively higher strain rate sensitivity and lower thermal stability as compared to the other Al alloys.

Keywords: ABAQUS, additive manufacturing, AlSi10Mg, Johnson-Cook model

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Safaa H. Sindi, Michael Roe

Abstract:

This project divides supply chain (SC) models into seven Eras, according to the evolution of the market’s needs throughout time. The five earliest Eras describe the emergence of supply chains, while the last two Eras are to be created. Research objectives: The aim is to generate the two latest Eras with their respective models that focus on the consumable goods. Era Six contains the Optimal Multidimensional Matrix (OMM) that incorporates most characteristics of the SC and allocates them into four quarters (Agile, Lean, Leagile, and Basic SC). This will help companies, especially (SMEs) plan their optimal SC route. Era Seven creates an Automated Multidimensional Model (AMM) which upgrades the matrix of Era six, as it accounts for all the supply chain factors (i.e. Offshoring, sourcing, risk) into an interactive system with Heuristic Learning that helps larger companies and industries to select the best SC model for their market. Methodologies: The data collection is based on a Fuzzy-Delphi study that analyses statements using Fuzzy Logic. The first round of Delphi study will contain statements (fuzzy rules) about the matrix of Era six. The second round of Delphi contains the feedback given from the first round and so on. Preliminary findings: both models are applicable, Matrix of Era six reduces the complexity of choosing the best SC model for SMEs by helping them identify the best strategy of Basic SC, Lean, Agile and Leagile SC; that’s tailored to their needs. The interactive heuristic learning in the AMM of Era seven will help mitigate error and aid large companies to identify and re-strategize the best SC model and distribution system for their market and commodity, hence increasing efficiency. Potential contributions to the literature: The problematic issue facing many companies is to decide which SC model or strategy to incorporate, due to the many models and definitions developed over the years. This research simplifies this by putting most definition in a template and most models in the Matrix of era six. This research is original as the division of SC into Eras, the Matrix of Era six (OMM) with Fuzzy-Delphi and Heuristic Learning in the AMM of Era seven provides a synergy of tools that were not combined before in the area of SC. Additionally the OMM of Era six is unique as it combines most characteristics of the SC, which is an original concept in itself.

Keywords: Leagile, automation, heuristic learning, supply chain models

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari, Mehdi Jafari, Mohammad Ensaf

Abstract:

This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matern, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matern, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Keywords: Gaussian process regression, ensemble kernels, bayesian optimization, pharmaceutical sales analysis, time series forecasting, data analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 66