Search results for: transportation modeling software
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9238

Search results for: transportation modeling software

5368 Optimal MPPT Charging Battery System for Photovoltaic Standalone Applications

Authors: Kelaiaia Mounia Samira, Labar Hocine, Mesbah Tarek, Kelaiaia samia

Abstract:

The photovoltaic panel produces green power, and because of its availability across the globe, it can supply isolated loads (site away of the electrical network or difficult of access). Unfortunately this energy remains very expensive. The most application of these types of power needs storage devices, the Lithium batteries are commonly used because of its powerful storage capability. Using a solar panel or an array of panels without a controller that can perform MPPT will often result in wasted power, which results in the need to install more panels for the same power requirement. For devices that have the battery connected directly to the panel, this will also result in premature battery failure or capacity loss. In this paper it is proposed a modified P&O algorithm for the MPPT which takes in account the battery’s internal resistance vs temperature and stage of charging. Of course the temperature variation and irradiation of the PV panel are also introduced.

Keywords: modeling, battery, MPPT, charging, PV Panel

Procedia PDF Downloads 499
5367 Stochastic Modeling of Secretion Dynamics in Inner Hair Cells of the Auditory Pathway

Authors: Jessica A. Soto-Bear, Virginia González-Vélez, Norma Castañeda-Villa, Amparo Gil

Abstract:

Glutamate release of the cochlear inner hair cell (IHC) ribbon synapse is a fundamental step in transferring sound information in the auditory pathway. Otoferlin is the calcium sensor in the IHC and its activity has been related to many auditory disorders. In order to simulate secretion dynamics occurring in the IHC in a few milliseconds timescale and with high spatial resolution, we proposed an active-zone model solved with Monte Carlo algorithms. We included models for calcium buffered diffusion, calcium-binding schemes for vesicle fusion, and L-type voltage-gated calcium channels. Our results indicate that calcium influx and calcium binding is managing IHC secretion as a function of voltage depolarization, which in turn mean that IHC response depends on sound intensity.

Keywords: inner hair cells, Monte Carlo algorithm, Otoferlin, secretion

Procedia PDF Downloads 201
5366 Modeling of Traffic Turning Movement

Authors: Michael Tilahun Mulugeta

Abstract:

Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users as they are more exposed to the risk of collusion. Pedestrian safety at road intersections still remains the most vital and yet unsolved issue in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. One of the critical points in pedestrian safety is the occurrence of conflict between turning vehicle and pedestrians at un-signalized intersection. However, a better understanding of the factors that affect the likelihood of the conflicts would help provide direction for countermeasures aimed at reducing the number of crashes. This paper has sorted to explore a model to describe the relation between traffic conflicts and influencing factors using Multiple Linear regression methodology. In this research the main focus is to study the interaction of turning (left & right) vehicle with pedestrian at unsignalized intersections. The specific objectives also to determine factors that affect the number of potential conflicts and develop a model of potential conflict.

Keywords: potential, regression analysis, pedestrian, conflicts

Procedia PDF Downloads 41
5365 Stop Consonants in Chinese and Slovak: Contrastive Analysis by Using Praat

Authors: Maria Istvanova

Abstract:

The acquisition of the correct pronunciation in Chinese is closely linked to the initial phase of the study. Based on the contrastive analysis, we determine the differences in the pronunciation of stop consonants in Chinese and Slovak taking into consideration the place and manner of articulation to gain a better understanding of the students' main difficulties in the process of acquiring correct pronunciation of Chinese stop consonants. We employ the software Praat for the analysis of the recorded samples with an emphasis on the pronunciation of the students with a varying command of Chinese. The comparison of the VOT length for the individual consonants in the students' pronunciation and the pronunciation of the native speaker exposes the differences between the correct pronunciation and the deviant pronunciation of the students.

Keywords: Chinese, contrastive analysis, Praat, pronunciation, Slovak.

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
5364 A Goal-Driven Crime Scripting Framework

Authors: Hashem Dehghanniri

Abstract:

Crime scripting is a simple and effective crime modeling technique that aims to improve understanding of security analysts about security and crime incidents. Low-quality scripts provide a wrong, incomplete, or sophisticated understanding of the crime commission process, which oppose the purpose of their application, e.g., identifying effective and cost-efficient situational crime prevention (SCP) measures. One important and overlooked factor in generating quality scripts is the crime scripting method. This study investigates the problems within the existing crime scripting practices and proposes a crime scripting approach that contributes to generating quality crime scripts. It was validated by experienced crime scripters. This framework helps analysts develop better crime scripts and contributes to their effective application, e.g., SCP measures identification or policy-making.

Keywords: attack modelling, crime commission process, crime script, situational crime prevention

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
5363 Design and Implementation of Embedded FM Transmission Control SW for Low Power Battery System

Authors: Young-Su Ryu, Kyung-Won Park, Jae-Hoon Song, Ki-Won Kwon

Abstract:

In this paper, an embedded frequency modulation (FM) transmission control software (SW) for a low power battery system is designed and implemented. The simultaneous translation systems for various languages are needed as so many international conferences and festivals are held in world wide. Especially in portable transmitting and receiving systems, the ability of long operation life is used for a measure of value. This paper proposes an embedded FM transmission control SW for low power battery system and shows the results of the SW implemented on a portable FM transmission system.

Keywords: FM transmission, simultaneous translation system, portable transmitting and receiving systems, low power embedded control SW

Procedia PDF Downloads 426
5362 Study on Liquid Nitrogen Gravity Circulation Loop for Cryopumps in Large Space Simulator

Authors: Weiwei Shan, Wenjing Ding, Juan Ning, Chao He, Zijuan Wang

Abstract:

Gravity circulation loop for the cryopumps of the space simulator is introduced, and two phase mathematic model of flow heat transfer is analyzed as well. Based on this model, the liquid nitrogen (LN2) gravity circulation loop including its equipment and layout is designed and has served as LN2 feeding system for cryopumps in one large space simulator. With the help of control software and human machine interface, this system can be operated flexibly, simply, and automatically under four conditions. When running this system, the results show that the cryopumps can be cooled down and maintained under the required temperature, 120 K.

Keywords: cryopumps, gravity circulation loop, liquid nitrogen, two-phase

Procedia PDF Downloads 383
5361 Mining Multicity Urban Data for Sustainable Population Relocation

Authors: Xu Du, Aparna S. Varde

Abstract:

In this research, we propose to conduct diagnostic and predictive analysis about the key factors and consequences of urban population relocation. To achieve this goal, urban simulation models extract the urban development trends as land use change patterns from a variety of data sources. The results are treated as part of urban big data with other information such as population change and economic conditions. Multiple data mining methods are deployed on this data to analyze nonlinear relationships between parameters. The result determines the driving force of population relocation with respect to urban sprawl and urban sustainability and their related parameters. Experiments so far reveal that data mining methods discover useful knowledge from the multicity urban data. This work sets the stage for developing a comprehensive urban simulation model for catering to specific questions by targeted users. It contributes towards achieving sustainability as a whole.

Keywords: data mining, environmental modeling, sustainability, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 281
5360 Use of Artificial Intelligence Based Models to Estimate the Use of a Spectral Band in Cognitive Radio

Authors: Danilo López, Edwin Rivas, Fernando Pedraza

Abstract:

Currently, one of the major challenges in wireless networks is the optimal use of radio spectrum, which is managed inefficiently. One of the solutions to existing problem converges in the use of Cognitive Radio (CR), as an essential parameter so that the use of the available licensed spectrum is possible (by secondary users), well above the usage values that are currently detected; thus allowing the opportunistic use of the channel in the absence of primary users (PU). This article presents the results found when estimating or predicting the future use of a spectral transmission band (from the perspective of the PU) for a chaotic type channel arrival behavior. The time series prediction method (which the PU represents) used is ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System). The results obtained were compared to those delivered by the RNA (Artificial Neural Network) algorithm. The results show better performance in the characterization (modeling and prediction) with the ANFIS methodology.

Keywords: ANFIS, cognitive radio, prediction primary user, RNA

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5359 Aerodynamic Design an UAV and Stability Analysis with Method of Genetic Algorithm Optimization

Authors: Saul A. Torres Z., Eduardo Liceaga C., Alfredo Arias M.

Abstract:

We seek to develop a UAV for agricultural spraying at a maximum altitude of 5000 meters above sea level, with a payload of 100 liters of fumigant. For the developing the aerodynamic design of the aircraft is using computational tools such as the "Vortex Lattice Athena" software, "MATLAB", "ANSYS FLUENT", "XFoil" package among others. Also methods are being used structured programming, exhaustive analysis of optimization methods and search. The results have a very low margin of error, and the multi-objective problems can be helpful for future developments. Also we developed method for Stability Analysis (Lateral-Directional and Longitudinal).

Keywords: aerodynamics design, optimization, algorithm genetic, multi-objective problem, longitudinal stability, lateral-directional stability

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5358 Design and Numerical Study on Aerodynamics Performance for F16 Leading Edge Extension

Authors: San-Yih Lin, Hsien-Hao Teng

Abstract:

In this research, we use commercial software, ANSYS CFX, to carry on the simulation the F16 aerodynamics performance flow field. The flight with a modified Leading Edge Extension (LEX) is proposed to increase the lift/drag ratio. The Shear Stress Transport turbulent model is used. The unstructured grid system is generated by the ICEM CFD. The prism grid around the wall surface is generated to simulate boundary layer viscosity flow field and Tetrahedron Mesh is used for the other computation domain. The lift, drag, and pitch moment are computed. The strong vortex structures upper the wing and vortex bursts under different sweep angle of LEX are investigated.

Keywords: LEX, lift/drag ratio, pitch moment, vortex burst

Procedia PDF Downloads 306
5357 Evaluation of the Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion Thermal Effects in Hassi R'Mel Gas Processing Plant Using Fire Dynamics Simulator

Authors: Brady Manescau, Ilyas Sellami, Khaled Chetehouna, Charles De Izarra, Rachid Nait-Said, Fati Zidani

Abstract:

During a fire in an oil and gas refinery, several thermal accidents can occur and cause serious damage to people and environment. Among these accidents, the BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion) is most observed and remains a major concern for risk decision-makers. It corresponds to a violent vaporization of explosive nature following the rupture of a vessel containing a liquid at a temperature significantly higher than its normal boiling point at atmospheric pressure. Their effects on the environment generally appear in three ways: blast overpressure, radiation from the fireball if the liquid involved is flammable and fragment hazards. In order to estimate the potential damage that would be caused by such an explosion, risk decision-makers often use quantitative risk analysis (QRA). This analysis is a rigorous and advanced approach that requires a reliable data in order to obtain a good estimate and control of risks. However, in most cases, the data used in QRA are obtained from the empirical correlations. These empirical correlations generally overestimate BLEVE effects because they are based on simplifications and do not take into account real parameters like the geometry effect. Considering that these risk analyses are based on an assessment of BLEVE effects on human life and plant equipment, more precise and reliable data should be provided. From this point of view, the CFD modeling of BLEVE effects appears as a solution to the empirical law limitations. In this context, the main objective is to develop a numerical tool in order to predict BLEVE thermal effects using the CFD code FDS version 6. Simulations are carried out with a mesh size of 1 m. The fireball source is modeled as a vertical release of hot fuel in a short time. The modeling of fireball dynamics is based on a single step combustion using an EDC model coupled with the default LES turbulence model. Fireball characteristics (diameter, height, heat flux and lifetime) issued from the large scale BAM experiment are used to demonstrate the ability of FDS to simulate the various steps of the BLEVE phenomenon from ignition up to total burnout. The influence of release parameters such as the injection rate and the radiative fraction on the fireball heat flux is also presented. Predictions are very encouraging and show good agreement in comparison with BAM experiment data. In addition, a numerical study is carried out on an operational propane accumulator in an Algerian gas processing plant of SONATRACH company located in the Hassi R’Mel Gas Field (the largest gas field in Algeria).

Keywords: BLEVE effects, CFD, FDS, fireball, LES, QRA

Procedia PDF Downloads 172
5356 Potential of Landslides Based On Maximum Monthly Rainfall in Sumber Sari Village Watershed Tirtomoyo Wonogiri Indonesia

Authors: Heny Pratiwi, Niken Silmi Surjandari, Noegroho Djarwanti

Abstract:

This study was conducted to determine the potential for landslides as a result of monthly rainfall in a watershed. Rainfall data that will be used is rainfall from years 2007-2011. Research methods created by modeling the slope on some variation of angle in a row 30◦, 45◦, and 60◦ with a homogeneous layer of soil. Slope Stability Analysis using Method Fellenius. The results of the slope stability analysis without rain on slope 30◦, 45◦, and 60◦ respectively 1.3846, 1.0115, and 0.7284. Results in the absence of rain showed that the slope on the slope 45◦ are in critical condition and on a slope with a slope 60◦ already avalanche with safety factor value <1. The results in the rainy conditions shows slopes 30◦ are in critical condition with a value factor <1 due to the intensity of monthly rainfall> 250 mm/month.

Keywords: slope stability, monthly rainfall, infiltration, safety factor, Fellenius method

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5355 Automated End-to-End Pipeline Processing Solution for Autonomous Driving

Authors: Ashish Kumar, Munesh Raghuraj Varma, Nisarg Joshi, Gujjula Vishwa Teja, Srikanth Sambi, Arpit Awasthi

Abstract:

Autonomous driving vehicles are revolutionizing the transportation system of the 21st century. This has been possible due to intensive research put into making a robust, reliable, and intelligent program that can perceive and understand its environment and make decisions based on the understanding. It is a very data-intensive task with data coming from multiple sensors and the amount of data directly reflects on the performance of the system. Researchers have to design the preprocessing pipeline for different datasets with different sensor orientations and alignments before the dataset can be fed to the model. This paper proposes a solution that provides a method to unify all the data from different sources into a uniform format using the intrinsic and extrinsic parameters of the sensor used to capture the data allowing the same pipeline to use data from multiple sources at a time. This also means easy adoption of new datasets or In-house generated datasets. The solution also automates the complete deep learning pipeline from preprocessing to post-processing for various tasks allowing researchers to design multiple custom end-to-end pipelines. Thus, the solution takes care of the input and output data handling, saving the time and effort spent on it and allowing more time for model improvement.

Keywords: augmentation, autonomous driving, camera, custom end-to-end pipeline, data unification, lidar, post-processing, preprocessing

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
5354 Thermo-Mechanical Processing Scheme to Obtain Micro-Duplex Structure Favoring Superplasticity in an As-Cast and Homogenized Medium Alloyed Nickel Base Superalloy

Authors: K. Sahithya, I. Balasundar, Pritapant, T. Raghua

Abstract:

Ni-based superalloy with a nominal composition Ni-14% Cr-11% Co-5.8% Mo-2.4% Ti-2.4% Nb-2.8% Al-0.26 % Fe-0.032% Si-0.069% C (all in wt %) is used as turbine discs in a variety of aero engines. Like any other superalloy, the primary processing of the as-cast superalloy poses a major challenge due to its complex alloy chemistry. The challenge was circumvented by characterizing the different phases present in the material, optimizing the homogenization treatment, identifying a suitable thermomechanical processing window using dynamic materials modeling. The as-cast material was subjected to homogenization at 1200°C for a soaking period of 8 hours and quenched using different media. Water quenching (WQ) after homogenization resulted in very fine spherical γꞌ precipitates of sizes 30-50 nm, whereas furnace cooling (FC) after homogenization resulted in bimodal distribution of precipitates (primary gamma prime of size 300nm and secondary gamma prime of size 5-10 nm). MC type primary carbides that are stable till the melting point of the material were found in both WQ and FC samples. Deformation behaviour of both the materials below (1000-1100°C) and above gamma prime solvus (1100-1175°C) was evaluated by subjecting the material to series of compression tests at different constant true strain rates (0.0001/sec-1/sec). An in-detail examination of the precipitate dislocation interaction mechanisms carried out using TEM revealed precipitate shearing and Orowan looping as the mechanisms governing deformation in WQ and FC, respectively. Incoherent/semi coherent gamma prime precipitates in the case of FC material facilitates better workability of the material, whereas the coherent precipitates in WQ material contributed to higher resistance to deformation of the material. Both the materials exhibited discontinuous dynamic recrystallization (DDRX) above gamma prime solvus temperature. The recrystallization kinetics was slower in the case of WQ material. Very fine grain boundary carbides ( ≤ 300 nm) retarded the recrystallisation kinetics in WQ. Coarse carbides (1-5 µm) facilitate particle stimulated nucleation in FC material. The FC material was cogged (primary hot working) 1120˚C, 0.03/sec resulting in significant grain refinement, i.e., from 3000 μm to 100 μm. The primary processed material was subjected to intensive thermomechanical deformation subsequently by reducing the temperature by 50˚C in each processing step with intermittent heterogenization treatment at selected temperatures aimed at simultaneous coarsening of the gamma prime precipitates and refinement of the gamma matrix grains. The heterogeneous annealing treatment carried out, resulted in gamma grains of 10 μm and gamma prime precipitates of 1-2 μm. Further thermo mechanical processing of the material was carried out at 1025˚C to increase the homogeneity of the obtained micro-duplex structure.

Keywords: superalloys, dynamic material modeling, nickel alloys, dynamic recrystallization, superplasticity

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5353 Review, Analysis and Simulation of Advanced Technology Solutions of Selected Components in Power Electronics Systems (PES) of More Electric Aircraft

Authors: Lucjan Setlak, Emil Ruda

Abstract:

The subject of this paper is to review, comparative analysis and simulation of selected components of power electronic systems (PES), consistent with the concept of a more electric aircraft (MEA). Comparative analysis and simulation in software environment MATLAB / Simulink were carried out based on a group of representatives of civil aircraft (B-787, A-380) and military (F-22 Raptor, F-35) in the context of multi-pulse converters used in them (6- and 12-pulse, and 18- and 24-pulse), which are key components of high-tech electronics on-board power systems of autonomous power systems (ASE) of modern aircraft (airplanes of the future).

Keywords: converters, electric machines, MEA (more electric aircraft), PES (power electronics systems)

Procedia PDF Downloads 474
5352 Calculation of Stress Intensity Factors in Rotating Disks Containing 3D Semi-Elliptical Cracks

Authors: Mahdi Fakoor, Seyed Mohammad Navid Ghoreishi

Abstract:

Initiation and propagation of cracks may cause catastrophic failures in rotating disks, and hence determination of fracture parameter in rotating disks under the different working condition is very important issue. In this paper, a comprehensive study of stress intensity factors in rotating disks containing 3D semi-elliptical cracks under the different working condition is investigated. In this regard, after verification of modeling and analytical procedure, the effects of mechanical properties, rotational velocity, and orientation of cracks on Stress Intensity Factors (SIF) in rotating disks under centrifugal loading are investigated. Also, the effects of using composite patch in reduction of SIF in rotating disks are studied. By that way, the effects of patching design variables like mechanical properties, thickness, and ply angle are investigated individually.

Keywords: stress intensity factor, semi-elliptical crack, rotating disk, finite element analysis (FEA)

Procedia PDF Downloads 341
5351 Modeling Intention to Use 3PL Services: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

Authors: Nasrin Akter, Prem Chhetri, Shams Rahman

Abstract:

The present study tested Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model to explain the formation of business customers’ intention to use 3PL services in Bangladesh. The findings show that the TPB model has a good fit to the data. Based on theoretical support and suggested modification indices, a refined TPB model was developed afterwards which provides a better predictive power for intention. Consistent with the theory, the results of a structural equation analysis revealed that the intention to use 3PL services is predicted by attitude and subjective norms but not by perceived behavioral control. Further investigation indicated that the paths between (attitude and intention) and (subjective norms and intention) did not statistically differ between 3PL user and non-user. Findings of this research provide an evidence base to formulate business strategies to increase the use of 3PL services in Bangladesh to enhance productivity and to gain economic efficiency.

Keywords: Bangladesh, intention, third-party logistics, Theory of Planned Behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 567
5350 Knowledge Audit Model for Requirement Elicitation Process

Authors: Laleh Taheri, Noraini C. Pa, Rusli Abdullah, Salfarina Abdullah

Abstract:

Knowledge plays an important role to the success of any organization. Software development organizations are highly knowledge-intensive organizations especially in their Requirement Elicitation Process (REP). There are several problems regarding communicating and using the knowledge in REP such as misunderstanding, being out of scope, conflicting information and changes of requirements. All of these problems occurred in transmitting the requirements knowledge during REP. Several researches have been done in REP in order to solve the problem towards requirements. Knowledge Audit (KA) approaches were proposed in order to solve managing knowledge in human resources, financial, and manufacturing. There is lack of study applying the KA in requirements elicitation process. Therefore, this paper proposes a KA model for REP in supporting to acquire good requirements.

Keywords: knowledge audit, requirement elicitation process, KA model, knowledge in requirement elicitation

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5349 A Parallel Cellular Automaton Model of Tumor Growth for Multicore and GPU Programming

Authors: Manuel I. Capel, Antonio Tomeu, Alberto Salguero

Abstract:

Tumor growth from a transformed cancer-cell up to a clinically apparent mass spans through a range of spatial and temporal magnitudes. Through computer simulations, Cellular Automata (CA) can accurately describe the complexity of the development of tumors. Tumor development prognosis can now be made -without making patients undergo through annoying medical examinations or painful invasive procedures- if we develop appropriate CA-based software tools. In silico testing mainly refers to Computational Biology research studies of application to clinical actions in Medicine. To establish sound computer-based models of cellular behavior, certainly reduces costs and saves precious time with respect to carrying out experiments in vitro at labs or in vivo with living cells and organisms. These aim to produce scientifically relevant results compared to traditional in vitro testing, which is slow, expensive, and does not generally have acceptable reproducibility under the same conditions. For speeding up computer simulations of cellular models, specific literature shows recent proposals based on the CA approach that include advanced techniques, such the clever use of supporting efficient data structures when modeling with deterministic stochastic cellular automata. Multiparadigm and multiscale simulation of tumor dynamics is just beginning to be developed by the concerned research community. The use of stochastic cellular automata (SCA), whose parallel programming implementations are open to yield a high computational performance, are of much interest to be explored up to their computational limits. There have been some approaches based on optimizations to advance in multiparadigm models of tumor growth, which mainly pursuit to improve performance of these models through efficient memory accesses guarantee, or considering the dynamic evolution of the memory space (grids, trees,…) that holds crucial data in simulations. In our opinion, the different optimizations mentioned above are not decisive enough to achieve the high performance computing power that cell-behavior simulation programs actually need. The possibility of using multicore and GPU parallelism as a promising multiplatform and framework to develop new programming techniques to speed-up the computation time of simulations is just starting to be explored in the few last years. This paper presents a model that incorporates parallel processing, identifying the synchronization necessary for speeding up tumor growth simulations implemented in Java and C++ programming environments. The speed up improvement that specific parallel syntactic constructs, such as executors (thread pools) in Java, are studied. The new tumor growth parallel model is proved using implementations with Java and C++ languages on two different platforms: chipset Intel core i-X and a HPC cluster of processors at our university. The parallelization of Polesczuk and Enderling model (normally used by researchers in mathematical oncology) proposed here is analyzed with respect to performance gain. We intend to apply the model and overall parallelization technique presented here to solid tumors of specific affiliation such as prostate, breast, or colon. Our final objective is to set up a multiparadigm model capable of modelling angiogenesis, or the growth inhibition induced by chemotaxis, as well as the effect of therapies based on the presence of cytotoxic/cytostatic drugs.

Keywords: cellular automaton, tumor growth model, simulation, multicore and manycore programming, parallel programming, high performance computing, speed up

Procedia PDF Downloads 222
5348 Project and Module Based Teaching and Learning

Authors: Jingyu Hou

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new teaching and learning approach-project and Module Based Teaching and Learning (PMBTL). The PMBTL approach incorporates the merits of project/problem based and module based learning methods, and overcomes the limitations of these methods. The correlation between teaching, learning, practice, and assessment is emphasized in this approach, and new methods have been proposed accordingly. The distinct features of these new methods differentiate the PMBTL approach from conventional teaching approaches. Evaluation of this approach on practical teaching and learning activities demonstrates the effectiveness and stability of the approach in improving the performance and quality of teaching and learning. The approach proposed in this paper is also intuitive to the design of other teaching units.

Keywords: computer science education, project and module based, software engineering, module based teaching and learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 475
5347 Foodborne Outbreak Calendar: Application of Time Series Analysis

Authors: Ryan B. Simpson, Margaret A. Waskow, Aishwarya Venkat, Elena N. Naumova

Abstract:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 31 known foodborne pathogens cause 9.4 million cases of these illnesses annually in US. Over 90% of these illnesses are associated with exposure to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shigella, Shiga-Toxin Producing E.Coli (STEC), Vibrio, and Yersinia. Contaminated products contain parasites typically causing an intestinal illness manifested by diarrhea, stomach cramping, nausea, weight loss, fatigue and may result in deaths in fragile populations. Since 1998, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) has allowed for routine collection of suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of food poisoning. While retrospective analyses have revealed common pathogen-specific seasonal patterns, little is known concerning the stability of those patterns over time and whether they can be used for preventative forecasting. The objective of this study is to construct a calendar of foodborne outbreaks of nine infections based on the peak timing of outbreak incidence in the US from 1996 to 2017. Reported cases were abstracted from FoodNet for Salmonella (135115), Campylobacter (121099), Shigella (48520), Cryptosporidium (21701), STEC (18022), Yersinia (3602), Vibrio (3000), Listeria (2543), and Cyclospora (758). Monthly counts were compiled for each agent, seasonal peak timing and peak intensity were estimated, and the stability of seasonal peaks and synchronization of infections was examined. Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the delta-method were applied to derive confidence intervals for the peak timing for each year and overall study period estimates. Preliminary results indicate that five infections continue to lead as major causes of outbreaks, exhibiting steady upward trends with annual increases in cases ranging from 2.71% (95%CI: [2.38, 3.05]) in Campylobacter, 4.78% (95%CI: [4.14, 5.41]) in Salmonella, 7.09% (95%CI: [6.38, 7.82]) in E.Coli, 7.71% (95%CI: [6.94, 8.49]) in Cryptosporidium, and 8.67% (95%CI: [7.55, 9.80]) in Vibrio. Strong synchronization of summer outbreaks were observed, caused by Campylobacter, Vibrio, E.Coli and Salmonella, peaking at 7.57 ± 0.33, 7.84 ± 0.47, 7.85 ± 0.37, and 7.82 ± 0.14 calendar months, respectively, with the serial cross-correlation ranging 0.81-0.88 (p < 0.001). Over 21 years, Listeria and Cryptosporidium peaks (8.43 ± 0.77 and 8.52 ± 0.45 months, respectively) have a tendency to arrive 1-2 weeks earlier, while Vibrio peaks (7.8 ± 0.47) delay by 2-3 weeks. These findings will be incorporated in the forecast models to predict common paths of the spread, long-term trends, and the synchronization of outbreaks across etiological agents. The predictive modeling of foodborne outbreaks should consider long-term changes in seasonal timing, spatiotemporal trends, and sources of contamination.

Keywords: foodborne outbreak, national outbreak reporting system, predictive modeling, seasonality

Procedia PDF Downloads 110
5346 Optimization Design of Superposition Wave Form Automotive Exhaust Bellows Structure

Authors: Zhang Jianrun, He Tangling

Abstract:

Superposition wave form automotive exhaust bellows is a new type of bellows, which has the characteristics of large compensation, good vibration isolation performance and long life. It has been paid more and more attention and applications in automotive exhaust pipe system. Aiming at the lack of current design methods of superposition wave form automotive exhaust bellows, this paper proposes a response surface parameter optimization method where the fatigue life and vibration transmissibility of the bellows are set as objectives. The parametric modeling of bellow structure is also adopted to achieve the high efficiency in the design. The approach proposed in this paper provides a new way for the design of superposition wave form automotive exhaust bellows. It embodies good engineering application value.

Keywords: superposition wave form, exhaust bellows, optimization, vibration, fatigue life

Procedia PDF Downloads 76
5345 Gas Sweetening Process Simulation: Investigation on Recovering Waste Hydraulic Energy

Authors: Meisam Moghadasi, Hassan Ali Ozgoli, Foad Farhani

Abstract:

In this research, firstly, a commercial gas sweetening unit with methyl-di-ethanol-amine (MDEA) solution is simulated and comprised in an integrated model in accordance with Aspen HYSYS software. For evaluation purposes, in the second step, the results of the simulation are compared with operating data gathered from South Pars Gas Complex (SPGC). According to the simulation results, the considerable energy potential contributed to the pressure difference between absorber and regenerator columns causes this energy driving force to be applied in power recovery turbine (PRT). In the last step, the amount of waste hydraulic energy is calculated, and its recovery methods are investigated.

Keywords: gas sweetening unit, simulation, MDEA, power recovery turbine, waste-to-energy

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5344 Study of the Landslide and Stability of Open Pit Quarry: Case of Open Pite Quarry of Chouf Amar M'sila, Algeria

Authors: Saadoun Abd Errazak, Hafssaoui Abdallah, Fredj Mohamed

Abstract:

Mining operations open induce risks of instability that can cause landslides and collapse at the bleachers slope. These risks may occur both during and after the operation phase. The magnitude of these risks depends on the mechanical and physical characteristics of the rock mass, the geometrical dimensions of ore bodies, their spatial arrangement, and the state of the operated area. If security and technology measures are not taken into account for this purpose, the environment will be affected. The main objective of this work is to assess these risks by analytical and numerical methods. The study is based on the geological, hydrogeological and geotechnical rock mass of the open pit quarry of Chouf Amar M'sila. The results obtained have allowed us to obtain an acceptable factor of safety and stability study of the open pit.

Keywords: stability, land sliding, numerical modeling, safety factor, open-pit quarry

Procedia PDF Downloads 356
5343 Foundation of the Information Model for Connected-Cars

Authors: Hae-Won Seo, Yong-Gu Lee

Abstract:

Recent progress in the next generation of automobile technology is geared towards incorporating information technology into cars. Collectively called smart cars are bringing intelligence to cars that provides comfort, convenience and safety. A branch of smart cars is connected-car system. The key concept in connected-cars is the sharing of driving information among cars through decentralized manner enabling collective intelligence. This paper proposes a foundation of the information model that is necessary to define the driving information for smart-cars. Road conditions are modeled through a unique data structure that unambiguously represent the time variant traffics in the streets. Additionally, the modeled data structure is exemplified in a navigational scenario and usage using UML. Optimal driving route searching is also discussed using the proposed data structure in a dynamically changing road conditions.

Keywords: connected-car, data modeling, route planning, navigation system

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5342 Applying Concept Mapping to Explore Temperature Abuse Factors in the Processes of Cold Chain Logistics Centers

Authors: Marco F. Benaglia, Mei H. Chen, Kune M. Tsai, Chia H. Hung

Abstract:

As societal and family structures, consumer dietary habits, and awareness about food safety and quality continue to evolve in most developed countries, the demand for refrigerated and frozen foods has been growing, and the issues related to their preservation have gained increasing attention. A well-established cold chain logistics system is essential to avoid any temperature abuse; therefore, assessing potential disruptions in the operational processes of cold chain logistics centers becomes pivotal. This study preliminarily employs HACCP to find disruption factors in cold chain logistics centers that may cause temperature abuse. Then, concept mapping is applied: selected experts engage in brainstorming sessions to identify any further factors. The panel consists of ten experts, including four from logistics and home delivery, two from retail distribution, one from the food industry, two from low-temperature logistics centers, and one from the freight industry. Disruptions include equipment-related aspects, human factors, management aspects, and process-related considerations. The areas of observation encompass freezer rooms, refrigerated storage areas, loading docks, sorting areas, and vehicle parking zones. The experts also categorize the disruption factors based on perceived similarities and build a similarity matrix. Each factor is evaluated for its impact, frequency, and investment importance. Next, multiple scale analysis, cluster analysis, and other methods are used to analyze these factors. Simultaneously, key disruption factors are identified based on their impact and frequency, and, subsequently, the factors that companies prioritize and are willing to invest in are determined by assessing investors’ risk aversion behavior. Finally, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is applied to verify the risk patterns. 66 disruption factors are found and categorized into six clusters: (1) "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities", (2) "Inadequate Management and Operational Negligence", (3) "Product Characteristics Affecting Quality and Inappropriate Packaging", (4) "Poor Control of Operation Timing and Missing Distribution Processing", (5) "Inadequate Planning for Peak Periods and Poor Process Planning", and (6) "Insufficient Cold Chain Awareness and Inadequate Training of Personnel". This study also identifies five critical factors in the operational processes of cold chain logistics centers: "Lack of Personnel’s Awareness Regarding Cold Chain Quality", "Personnel Not Following Standard Operating Procedures", "Personnel’s Operational Negligence", "Management’s Inadequacy", and "Lack of Personnel’s Knowledge About Cold Chain". The findings show that cold chain operators prioritize prevention and improvement efforts in the "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities" cluster, particularly focusing on the factors of "Temperature Setting Errors" and "Management’s Inadequacy". However, through the application of CPT theory, this study reveals that companies are not usually willing to invest in the improvement of factors related to the "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities" cluster due to its low occurrence likelihood, but they acknowledge the severity of the consequences if it does occur. Hence, the main implication is that the key disruption factors in cold chain logistics centers’ processes are associated with personnel issues; therefore, comprehensive training, periodic audits, and the establishment of reasonable incentives and penalties for both new employees and managers may significantly reduce disruption issues.

Keywords: concept mapping, cold chain, HACCP, cumulative prospect theory

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5341 Significance of Bike-Frame Geometric Factors for Cycling Efficiency and Muscle Activation

Authors: Luen Chow Chan

Abstract:

With the advocacy of green transportation and green traveling, cycling has become increasingly popular nowadays. Physiology and bike design are key factors for the influence of cycling efficiency. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the significance of bike-frame geometric factors on cycling efficiency and muscle activation for different body sizes of non-professional Asian male cyclists. Participants who represented various body sizes, as measured by leg and back lengths, carried out cycling tests using a tailor-assembled road bike with different ergonomic design configurations including seat-height adjustments (i.e., 96%, 100%, and 104% of trochanteric height) and bike frame sizes (i.e., small and medium frames) for an assessable distance of 1 km. A specific power meter and self-developed adaptable surface electromyography (sEMG) were used to measure average pedaling power and cadence generated and muscle activation, respectively. The results showed that changing the seat height was far more significant than the body and bike frame sizes. The sEMG data evidently provided a better understanding of muscle activation as a function of different seat heights. Therefore, the interpretation of this study is that the major bike ergonomic design factor dominating the cycling efficiency of Asian participants with different body sizes was the seat height.

Keywords: bike frame sizes, cadence rate, pedaling power, seat height

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
5340 Design of a Low Cost Motion Data Acquisition Setup for Mechatronic Systems

Authors: Baris Can Yalcin

Abstract:

Motion sensors have been commonly used as a valuable component in mechatronic systems, however, many mechatronic designs and applications that need motion sensors cost enormous amount of money, especially high-tech systems. Design of a software for communication protocol between data acquisition card and motion sensor is another issue that has to be solved. This study presents how to design a low cost motion data acquisition setup consisting of MPU 6050 motion sensor (gyro and accelerometer in 3 axes) and Arduino Mega2560 microcontroller. Design parameters are calibration of the sensor, identification and communication between sensor and data acquisition card, interpretation of data collected by the sensor.

Keywords: design, mechatronics, motion sensor, data acquisition

Procedia PDF Downloads 567
5339 Numerical Prediction of Entropy Generation in Heat Exchangers

Authors: Nadia Allouache

Abstract:

The concept of second law is assumed to be important to optimize the energy losses in heat exchangers. The present study is devoted to the numerical prediction of entropy generation due to heat transfer and friction in a double tube heat exchanger partly or fully filled with a porous medium. The goal of this work is to find the optimal conditions that allow minimizing entropy generation. For this purpose, numerical modeling based on the control volume method is used to describe the flow and heat transfer phenomena in the fluid and the porous medium. Effects of the porous layer thickness, its permeability, and the effective thermal conductivity have been investigated. Unexpectedly, the fully porous heat exchanger yields a lower entropy generation than the partly porous case or the fluid case even if the friction increases the entropy generation.

Keywords: heat exchangers, porous medium, second law approach, turbulent flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 279