Search results for: volume weighted average price

Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Kanupriya Rawat, Aleksandra Błachnio, Paweł Izdebski

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Achievement motivation, which drives a person to strive for success, is an important construct in sports psychology. This systematic review aims to analyze the methods of measuring achievement motivation used in previous studies published over the past four decades and to find out which method of measuring achievement motivation is the most prevalent and the most effective by thoroughly examining measures of achievement motivation used in each study and by evaluating most highly cited achievement motivation measures in sport. In order to understand this latent construct, thorough measurement is necessary, hence a critical evaluation of measurement tools is required. The literature search was conducted in the following databases: EBSCO, MEDLINE, APA PsychARTICLES, Academic Search Ultimate, Open Dissertations, ERIC, Science direct, Web of Science, as well as Wiley Online Library. A total of 26 articles met the inclusion criteria and were selected. From this review, it was found that the Achievement Goal Questionnaire- Sport (AGQ-Sport) and the Task and Ego Orientation in Sport Questionnaire (TEOSQ) were used in most of the research, however, the average weighted impact factor of the Achievement Goal Questionnaire- Sport (AGQ-Sport) is the second highest and most relevant in terms of research articles related to the sport psychology discipline. Task and Ego Orientation in Sport Questionnaire (TEOSQ) is highly popular in cross-cultural adaptation but has the second last average IF among other scales due to the less impact factor of most of the publishing journals. All measures of achievement motivation have Cronbach’s alpha value of more than .70, which is acceptable. The advantages and limitations of each measurement tool are discussed, and the distinction between using implicit and explicit measures of achievement motivation is explained. Overall, both implicit and explicit measures of achievement motivation have different conceptualizations of achievement motivation and are applicable at either the contextual or situational level. The conceptualization and degree of applicability are perhaps the most crucial factors for researchers choosing a questionnaire, even though they differ in their development, reliability, and use.

Keywords: achievement motivation, task and ego orientation, sports psychology, measures of achievement motivation

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

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In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices in the past five years of ten major tech companies – Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We experimented with a variety of models– a linear regressor model, K nearest Neighbors (KNN), a sequential neural network – and algorithms - Multiplicative Weight Update, and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market

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Authors: Balakrishna Shetty

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Introduction: Stem Cell Imaging is a challenging field since the advent of Stem Cell treatment in humans. Series of research on tagging and tracking the stem cells has not been very effective. The present study is an effort by the authors to track the stem cells injected into calf muscles by Magnetic Resonance Diffusion Weighted Imaging. Materials and methods: Stem Cell injection deep into the calf muscles of patients with peripheral vascular disease is one of the recent treatment modalities followed in our institution. 5 patients who underwent deep intramuscular injection of stem cells as treatment were included for this study. Pre and two hours Post injection MRI of bilateral calf regions was done using 1.5 T Philips Achieva, 16 channel system using 16 channel torso coils. Axial STIR, Axial Diffusion weighted images with b=0 and b=1000 values with back ground suppression (DWIBS sequence of Philips MR Imaging Systems) were obtained at 5 mm interval covering the entire calf. The invert images were obtained for better visualization. 120ml of autologous bone marrow derived stem cells were processed and enriched under c-GMP conditions and reduced to 40ml solution containing mixture of above stem cells. Approximately 40 to 50 injections, each containing 0.75ml of processed stem cells, was injected with marked grids over the calf region. Around 40 injections, each of 1ml normal saline, is injected into contralateral leg as control. Results: Significant Diffusion hyper intensity is noted at the site of injected stem cells. No hyper intensity noted before the injection and also in the control side where saline was injected conclusion: This is one of the earliest studies in literature showing diffusion hyper intensity in intramuscularly injected stem cells. The advantages and deficiencies in this study will be discussed during the presentation.

Keywords: stem cells, imaging, DWI, peripheral vascular disease

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Authors: Siphat Lim

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This study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. In the long-run the general price level and exchange rate have a positively significant effect on domestic output. The estimated result further revealed that fiscal stimulus help stimulate domestic output in the long-run, but not in the short-run, while monetary expansion help to stimulate output in both short-run and long-run. The result is complied with the theory which is the macroeconomic policies, fiscal and monetary policy; help to stimulate domestic output in the long-run. The estimated result of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has indicated more clearly that the consumer price index has a positive effect on output with highly statistically significant. Increasing in the general price level would increase the competitiveness among producers than increase in the output. However, the exchange rate also has a positive effect and highly significant on the gross domestic product. The exchange rate depreciation might increase export since the purchasing power of foreigners has increased. More importantly, fiscal stimulus would help stimulate the domestic output in the long-run since the coefficient of government expenditure is positive. In addition, monetary expansion would also help stimulate the output and the result is highly significant. Thus, fiscal stimulus and monetary expansionary would help stimulate the domestic output in the long-run in Cambodia.

Keywords: fiscal policy, monetary policy, ARDL, VECM

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Authors: S. Sakthivel

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Currently, the global economy is based on the hydrocarbon economy, which is referencing the global hydrocarbon industry. Problems of using these fossil fuels (like oil, NG, coal) are emitting greenhouse gases (GHGs) and price fluctuation, supply/distribution, etc. These challenges can be overcome by using clean energy as hydrogen. The hydrogen economy is the use of hydrogen as a low carbon fuel, particularly for hydrogen vehicles, alternative industrial feedstock, power generation, and energy storage, etc. Engineering consulting firms have a significant role in this ambition and green hydrogen value chain (i.e., integration of renewables, production, storage, and distribution to end-users). Typically, the cost of green hydrogen is a function of the price of electricity needed, the cost of the electrolyser, and the operating cost to run the system. This article focuses on economic viability and explores the alluring business scenarios globally. Break-even analysis was carried out for green hydrogen production and in order to evaluate and compare the impact of the electricity price on the production costs of green hydrogen and relate it to fossil fuel-based brown/grey/blue hydrogen costs. It indicates that the cost of green hydrogen production will fall drastically due to the declining costs of renewable electricity prices and along with the improvement and scaling up of electrolyser manufacturing. For instance, in a scenario where electricity prices are below US$ 40/MWh, green hydrogen cost is expected to reach cost competitiveness.

Keywords: green hydrogen, cost analysis, break-even analysis, renewables, electrolyzer

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Authors: Disha Bhanot, Vinish Kathuria

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This study focusses on the issue of distress sale in horticulture sector in India, which faces unique challenges, given the perishable nature of horticulture crops, seasonal production and paucity of post-harvest produce management links. Distress sale, from a farmer’s perspective may be defined as urgent sale of normal or distressed goods, at deeply discounted prices (way below the cost of production) and it is usually characterized by unfavorable conditions for the seller (farmer). The small and marginal farmers, often involved in subsistence farming, stand to lose substantially if they receive lower prices than expected prices (typically framed in relation to cost of production). Distress sale maximizes price uncertainty of produce leading to substantial income loss; and with increase in input costs of farming, the high variability in harvest price severely affects profit margin of farmers, thereby affecting their survival. The objective of this study is to model the occurrence of distress sale by tomato cultivators in the Indian state of Maharashtra, against the background of differential access to set of factors such as - capital, irrigation facilities, warehousing, storage and processing facilities, and institutional arrangements for procurement etc. Data is being collected using primary survey of over 200 farmers in key tomato growing areas of Maharashtra, asking information on the above factors in addition to seeking information on cost of cultivation, selling price, time gap between harvesting and selling, role of middleman in selling, besides other socio-economic variables. Farmers selling their produce far below the cost of production would indicate an occurrence of distress sale. Occurrence of distress sale would then be modelled as a function of farm, household and institutional characteristics. Heckman-two-stage model would be applied to find the probability/likelihood of a famer falling into distress sale as well as to ascertain how the extent of distress sale varies in presence/absence of various factors. Findings of the study would recommend suitable interventions and promotion of strategies that would help farmers better manage price uncertainties, avoid distress sale and increase profit margins, having direct implications on poverty.

Keywords: distress sale, horticulture, income loss, India, price uncertainity

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Authors: Ruben L. Tagare, Jr

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This study was conducted to determine the parents’ motivating factors for their deaf and mute children to participate in physical and recreational activities. Data were collected from the 17 parents of the deaf and mute children using a specifically designed survey questionnaire as the primary instrument used in the study. Data analysis and interpretation were done with the aid of descriptive statistics, such as frequency, percentage, weighted mean and multiple responses. Most of the respondents were female with a mean average age of 38 years old. The average age of their children was 10 years old. In terms of monthly income, the respondents had an average monthly income of PhP 13,945. Furthermore, most of the respondents lived in the urban area and were all Catholic by faith or religion. As to the factors that parents used to motivate their deaf and mute children to engage in physical and recreational activities, these included the followings: First; to make my child experience and explore more meaningful things through physical and recreational activities; second; to gain other’s respect; third; to build friendship and interact with his peers; fourth; to experience the feeling of belongingness; and fifth: to learn and discover new things. On the other hand, the least chosen factors were: first; to help achieve and maintain a healthy weight; second; to reduce fats and lowering blood pressure; third; to improve balance, coordination and strength; fourth; to improve posture; and fifth; to assist the child in the development of gross motor and fine motor skills. Based on the findings of the study, it is hereby recommended that since the first factor is 'to make my child experience and explore more meaningful things through physical and recreational activities' and the other top factors are more on social aspect, the school should design extra-curricular activities such as theatrical play and other similar activities that the students will find interesting while the parents will be more motivated to engage their children into physical and recreational activities. Also, since the least chosen factors are more on physical aspect, the school should organize or conduct a seminar for the parents to be aware of the benefits of participating in physical and recreational activities for their deaf and mute children. They can also conduct an information campaign to encourage the other parents of deaf and mute children, whom they keep only inside their home to enroll in the school and let their children be exposed to the natural world. Considering that parents are the primary motivators that can best help their children become more interested in physical and recreational activities for their own development, the school should always remain motivated by creating activities for the deaf and mute children with their parents. The study also recommends conducting further study on the level of knowledge/understanding of the parents on the benefits that can be derived from participating in physical and recreational activities.

Keywords: deaf and mute, participation, physical and recreational activities, adaptive PE

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Authors: Andi Hasizah Mochtar, Meta Mahendradatta, Amran Laga, Metusalach Metusalach, Salengke Salengke, Mariati Bilang, Andi Amijoyo Mochtar, Reta Reta, Aminah Muhdar, Sri Suhartini

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This study aims to determine the effect of alcohol type on the quality of iota carrageenan-based on extraction technology through the application of ohmic reactor. Results of this analysis will be used as a reference for selecting the proper type of alcohol used for carrageenan precipitated after extraction by technology based ohmic. The results of analysis performed included analysis of viscosity, gel strength, and yield of iota carrageenan. Viscosity is the highest obtained at precipitated by using isopropyl alcohol with an average of 291.5 Cp (at 160 rpm), then with methanol at an average of 282 Cp, then precipitated by using ethanol at an average of 206.5 Cp. Gel strength is the lowest obtained 67.74 on precipitated by using ethanol, then an average of 74.34 in precipitated that using methanol, and the highest average of 80.11 in precipitated that using isopropyl alcohol.

Keywords: extraction of carrageenan, gel strength, ohmic technology, precipitated, seaweed (Eucheuma spinosum), viscosity

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Authors: Gamalath M. B. P. Abeysekara

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Primary objective of any organization is to enhance the bottom line profit. Strategic procurement is one of the prominent aspects in view of receiving this ultimate objective. Strategic procurement is an activity used in each and every organization in their operations. Pharmaceutical procurement is an especially significant task for any organizations, particularly state sector concerned. The whole pharmaceutical procurement requirement of the country is procured through the State Pharmaceutical Corporation (SPC) of Sri Lanka. They follow Pharmaceutical Procurement Guideline of 2006 as the procurement principle. The main objective of this project is to identify the importance of State Pharmaceutical Corporation supplier selection criteria and critical analysis of pharmaceutical procurement procedure. State Pharmaceutical Corporations applied net price, product quality, past performance, and delivery of suppliers’ as main criteria for the selection suppliers. Data collection for this study was taken place through a questionnaire, given to fifty doctors within the Colombo district attached to five main state hospitals. Data analysis is carried out with mean and standard deviation functions. The ultimate outcomes indicated product quality, net price, and delivery of suppliers’ are the most important criteria behind the selection of suppliers. Critical analysis proved State Pharmaceutical Corporation should focus on net price reduction, improving laboratory testing facilities and effective communication between up and down stream of supply chain.

Keywords: government procurement procedure, pharmaceutical procurement supplier selection criteria, importance of SPC supplier selection criteria

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Authors: Rasool Sadeghi, Sayed Mahdi Faghih Imani, Negar Najafi

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The inherent features of Named Data Networking (NDN) provides a robust solution for Internet of Thing (IoT). Therefore, NDN-IoT has emerged as a combined architecture which exploits the benefits of NDN for interconnecting of the heterogeneous objects in IoT. In NDN-IoT, caching schemes are a key role to improve the network performance. In this paper, we consider the effectiveness of cache replacement schemes in NDN-IoT scenarios. We investigate the impact of replacement schemes on average delay, average hop count, and average interest retransmission when replacement schemes are Least Frequently Used (LFU), Least Recently Used (LRU), First-In-First-Out (FIFO) and Random. The simulation results demonstrate that LFU and LRU present a stable performance when the cache size changes. Moreover, the network performance improves when the number of consumers increases.

Keywords: NDN-IoT, cache replacement, performance, ndnSIM

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Authors: Fahad Suleiman

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Queuing, in medical system is the process of moving patients in a specific sequence to a specific service according to the patients’ nature of illness. The term scheduling stands for the process of computing a schedule. This may be done by a queuing based scheduler. This paper focuses on the medical consultancy system, the different queuing algorithms that are used in healthcare system to serve the patients, and the average waiting time. The aim of this paper is to build automatic queuing system for organizing the medical queuing system that can analyses the queue status and take decision which patient to serve. The new queuing architecture model can switch between different scheduling algorithms according to the testing results and the factor of the average waiting time. The main innovation of this work concerns the modeling of the average waiting time is taken into processing, in addition with the process of switching to the scheduling algorithm that gives the best average waiting time.

Keywords: queuing systems, queuing system models, scheduling algorithms, patients

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Authors: C. Nathanailides, P. Logothetis, G. Kanlis S. Anastasiou, L. Kokokiris, P. Mpeza

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Farmed Red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) is one of the “new candidate fish species” for the diversification of Mediterranean aquaculture which is predomintly based on the cultivation of the European sea bass, (Dicenfrarchus labrax), and the gilthead sea bream, (Sparus aurata). The quality of farmed red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) was investigated with samples obtained from the local fish market in the region of Igoumenitsa, NW Greece. Sample of the fish (ungutted and with scales) were purchased from three local fish mongers and transported to the laboratory within few minutes in foamed polystyrene boxes in ice. The average weight of whole fish ranged between 271-289g. A sample of the fish flesh taken from the upper epaxial region was transferred aseptically to a stomacher bag containing sterile Buffered Peptone Water solution (0.1%) and homogenized. After serial dilutions in 0.1% peptone water, the homogenates were spread on the surface of agar plates. Total viable counts (TVC) were determined using plate count agar after incubation at 30 oC for 3 days. The quality attributes monitored during the present work included bacterial load (total mesophilic) and the pH of the flesh. There was a marginal increase in the price of fresh red porgy sold during the summer time, with prices ranging, over a period of four seasons, from 5.85 to 7.5 per kilo. The results of the microbiological analysis indicate that with the exception of summer samples (which exhibited 5.23 (±0.13) log cfu/g), the bacterial load remained well below the legal limits and was around 3.1 log cfu/g. The pH values varied between 6.54 and 6.69. The results indicate a possible influence of season on the bacterial load of fish sold in the market. Nevertheless, the parameters investigated in the present work indicate that the bacteria load was well below the legal limit and that fish were sold within few days after harvesting. The peak of bacterial load in the summer samples may be a result of a post-harvesting contamination of the farmed fish and temperature fluctuations during handling and transportation.

Keywords: fish quality, marketing, aquaculture, Pagrus pagrus

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Authors: A. Boateng, La Gil-Alana, M. Lesaoana; Hj. Siweya, A. Belete

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This study examines long memory or long-range dependence in the CPI inflation rates of Ghana and South Africa using Whittle methods and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Standard I(0)/I(1) methods such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Philips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests were also employed. Our findings indicate that long memory exists in the CPI inflation rates of both countries. After processing fractional differencing and determining the short memory components, the models were specified as ARFIMA (4,0.35,2) and ARFIMA (3,0.49,3) respectively for Ghana and South Africa. Consequently, the CPI inflation rates of both countries are fractionally integrated and mean reverting. The implication of this result will assist in policy formulation and identification of inflationary pressures in an economy.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rates, Whittle method, long memory, ARFIMA model

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Authors: Ulas Cinar, Omer Faruk Ugurlu, Selcuk Cebi

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Occupational safety risk management is the most important element of a safe working environment. Effective risk management can only be possible with accurate analysis and evaluations. Scoring-based risk assessment methods offer considerable ease of application as they convert linguistic expressions into numerical results. It can also be easily adapted to any field. Contrary to all these advantages, important problems in scoring-based methods are frequently discussed. Effective measurability is one of the most critical problems. Existing methods allow experts to choose a score equivalent to each parameter. Therefore, experts prefer the score of the most likely outcome for risk. However, all other possible consequences are neglected. Assessments of the existing methods express the most probable level of risk, not the real risk of the enterprises. In this study, it is aimed to develop a method that will present a more comprehensive evaluation compared to the existing methods by evaluating the probability and severity scores, all sub-parameters, and potential results, and a new scoring-based method is proposed in the literature.

Keywords: occupational health and safety, risk assessment, scoring based risk assessment method, underground mining, weighted risk scores

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Authors: Doan Van Chinh, Bui Thi Kien Trinh

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This paper outlines some statistical properties of residual sea level (RSL) at six representative tidal stations located along the coast of Vietnam. It was found that the positive RSL varied on average between 9.82 and 19.96cm and the negative RSL varied on average between -16.62 and -9.02cm. The maximum positive RSL varied on average between 102.8 and 265.5cm with the maximum negative RSL varied on average between -250.4 and -66.4cm. It is seen that the biggest positive RSL ere appeared in the summer months and the biggest negative RSL ere appeared in the winter months. The cumulative frequency of RSL less than 50 cm occurred between 95 and 99% of the times while the frequency of RSL higher than 100 cm accounted for between 0.01 and 0.2%. It also was found that the cumulative frequency of duration of RSL less than 24 hours occurred between 90 and 99% while the frequency of duration longer than 72 hours was in the order of 0.1 and 1%.

Keywords: coast of Vietnam, residual sea level, residual water, surge, cumulative frequency

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Authors: Oliver Takawira, Thembi Hope

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This study will analyse the relationship between Bitcoin price movements and the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE). The aim is to determine whether Bitcoin price movements affect the stock market performance. As crypto currencies continue to gain prominence as a safe asset during periods of economic distress, this raises the question of whether Bitcoin’s prosperity could affect investment in the stock market. To identify the existence of a short run and long run linear relationship, the study will apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds test and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) after testing the data for unit roots and cointegration using the Augmented Dicker Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP). The Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) will then be used to check if there is a non-linear relationship between bitcoin prices and stock market prices.

Keywords: bitcoin, stock market, interest rates, ARDL

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Authors: Srinaath Anbu Durai, Wang Zhaoxia

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Twitter sentiment has been used as a predictor to predict price values or trends in both the stock market and housing market. The pioneering works in this stream of research drew upon works in behavioural economics to show that sentiment or emotions impact economic decisions. Latest works in this stream focus on the algorithm used as opposed to the data used. A literature review of works in this stream through the lens of data used shows that there is a paucity of work that considers the impact of sentiments caused due to an external factor on either the stock or the housing market. This is despite an abundance of works in behavioural economics that show that sentiment or emotions caused due to an external factor impact economic decisions. To address this gap, this research studies the impact of Twitter sentiment pertaining to the Covid-19 pandemic on resale Housing Development Board (HDB) apartment prices in Singapore. It leverages SNSCRAPE to collect tweets pertaining to Covid-19 for sentiment analysis, lexicon based tools VADER and TextBlob are used for sentiment analysis, Granger Causality is used to examine the relationship between Covid-19 cases and the sentiment score, and neural networks are leveraged as prediction models. Twitter sentiment pertaining to Covid-19 as a predictor of HDB price in Singapore is studied in comparison with the traditional predictors of housing prices i.e., the structural and neighbourhood characteristics. The results indicate that using Twitter sentiment pertaining to Covid19 leads to better prediction than using only the traditional predictors and performs better as a predictor compared to two of the traditional predictors. Hence, Twitter sentiment pertaining to an external factor should be considered as important as traditional predictors. This paper demonstrates the real world economic applications of sentiment analysis of Twitter data.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, Covid-19, housing price prediction, tweets, social media, Singapore HDB, behavioral economics, neural networks

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Authors: Yasaswi Vengalasetti, Jacob Eisenach, Jay Bhattacharya

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Seroprevalence studies can provide an estimation of the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), the probability of death given infection. Measuring the seroprevalence and reported deaths of an area within a given time frame an IFR can be estimated. With this IFR calculation, we can then observe COVID-19 death figures in different countries around the world and estimate the number of cases since the onset of the pandemic. There is a large range for estimated COVID-19 infections across different countries. This ranged from 0.659 million infections in Hong Kong to 277 million infections in India. The largest estimated share of the population infected is 63% in Peru and the lowest is 3% in Norway. For younger populations, COVID-19 is most fatal in South America; for older populations, it is most fatal in North America. The Asian regions stand out with significantly lower IFRs in older populations: at 80 years old, COVID-19 is about three times as fatal than in South Asia and about twelve times as fatal than in East Asia. The weighted average for the share of the population infected, the sum of infections divided by the sum of populations across all countries, is 23%.

Keywords: epidemiology, seroprevalence, covid-19, infection fatality rate

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Authors: Grange Sylvain, Plancher Ronan, Reurink Guustav, Croisille Pierre, Edouard Pascal

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The primary objective of this study was to analyze the potential correlation between the pain experienced at the time of a hamstring muscle injury and the volume of the lesion measured on MRI. The secondary objectives were to analyze a correlation between this pain and the lesion grade as well as the affected hamstring muscle. We performed a retrospective analysis of the data collected in a prospective, multicenter, non-interventional cohort study (HAMMER). Patients with suspected hamstring muscle injury had an MRI after the injury and at the same time were evaluated for their pain intensity experienced at the time of the injury with a Numerical Pain Rating Scale (NPRS) from 0 to 10. A total of 61 patients were included in the present analysis. MRIs were performed in an average of less than 8 days. There was a significant correlation between pain and the injury volume (r=0.287; p=0.025). There was no significant correlation between the pain and the lesion grade (p>0.05), nor between the pain and affected hamstring muscle (p>0.05). Pain at the time of injury appeared to be correlated with the volume of muscle affected. These results confirm the value of a clinical approach in the initial evaluation of hamstring injuries to better select patients eligible for further imaging.

Keywords: hamstring muscle injury, MRI, volume lesion, pain

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), prediction, stock market, time series

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Authors: Michael Vieth, Aric Schadler, Hubert Ballard, J. A. Bauer, Pratibha Thakkar

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Introduction: Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is a condition characterized by the herniation of abdominal contents into the thoracic cavity requiring postnatal surgical repair. Previous literature suggests improved CDH outcomes at high-volume regional referral centers compared to low-volume centers. The purpose of this study was to examine CDH outcomes at Kentucky Children’s Hospital (KCH), a low-volume center, compared to the Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia Study Group (CDHSG). Methods: A retrospective chart review was performed at KCH from 2007-2019 for neonates with CDH, and then subdivided into two cohorts: those requiring ECMO therapy and those not requiring ECMO therapy. Basic demographic data and measures of mortality and morbidity including ventilator days and length of stay were compared to the CDHSG. Measures of morbidity for the ECMO cohort including duration of ECMO, clinical bleeding, intracranial hemorrhage, sepsis, need for continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), need for sildenafil at discharge, timing of surgical repair, and total ventilator days were collected. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics version 28. One-sample t-tests and one-sample Wilcoxon Signed Rank test were utilized as appropriate.Results: There were a total of 27 neonatal patients with CDH at KCH from 2007-2019; 9 of the 27 required ECMO therapy. The birth weight and gestational age were similar between KCH and the CDHSG (2.99 kg vs 2.92 kg, p =0.655; 37.0 weeks vs 37.4 weeks, p =0.51). About half of the patients were inborn in both cohorts (52% vs 56%, p =0.676). KCH cohort had significantly more Caucasian patients (96% vs 55%, p=<0.001). Unadjusted mortality was similar in both groups (KCH 70% vs CDHSG 72%, p =0.857). Using ECMO utilization (KCH 78% vs CDHSG 52%, p =0.118) and need for surgical repair (KCH 95% vs CDHSG 85%, p =0.060) as proxy for severity, both groups’ mortality were comparable. No significant difference was noted for pulmonary outcomes such as average ventilator days (KCH 43.2 vs. CDHSG 17.3, p =0.078) and home oxygen dependency (KCH 44% vs. CDHSG 24%, p =0.108). Average length of hospital stay for patients treated at KCH was similar to CDHSG (64.4 vs 49.2, p=1.000). Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that outcome in CDH patients is independent of center’s case volume status. Management of CDH with a standardized approach in a low-volume center can yield similar outcomes. This data supports the treatment of patients with CDH at low-volume centers as opposed to transferring to higher-volume centers.

Keywords: ECMO, case volume, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia study group, neonate

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Authors: Davood Vatankhah, Reza Mokhtari Malekabadi, Mohsen Saghaei

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Function of urban transportation systems depends on the existence of the required infrastructures, appropriate placement of different components, and the cooperation of these components with each other. Establishing various neighboring parking spaces in city neighborhood in order to prevent long-term and inappropriate parking of cars in the allies is one of the most effective operations in reducing the crowding and density of the neighborhoods. Every place with a certain application attracts a number of daily travels which happen throughout the city. A large percentage of the people visiting these places go to these travels by their own cars; therefore, they need a space to park their cars. The amount of this need depends on the usage function and travel demand of the place. The study aims at investigating the spatial distribution of the public parking spaces, determining the effective factors in locating, and their combination in GIS environment in Khomeinishahr of Isfahan city. Ultimately, the study intends to create an appropriate pattern for locating parking spaces, determining the request for parking spaces of the traffic areas, choosing the proper places for providing the required public parking spaces, and also proposing new spots in order to promote quality and quantity aspects of the city in terms of enjoying public parking spaces. Regarding the method, the study is based on applied purpose and regarding nature, it is analytic-descriptive. The population of the study includes people of the center of Khomeinishahr which is located on Northwest of Isfahan having about 5000 hectares of geographic area and the population of 241318 people are in the center of Komeinishahr. In order to determine the sample size, Cochran formula was used and according to the population of 26483 people of the studied area, 231 questionnaires were used. Data analysis was carried out by usage of SPSS software and after estimating the required space for parking spaces, initially, the effective criteria in locating the public parking spaces are weighted by the usage of Analytic Hierarchical Process in the Arc GIS software. Then, appropriate places for establishing parking spaces were determined by fuzzy method of Order Weighted Average (OWA). The results indicated that locating of parking spaces in Khomeinishahr have not been carried out appropriately and per capita of the parking spaces is not desirable in relation to the population and request; therefore, in addition to the present parking lots, 1434 parking lots are needed in the area of the study for each day; therefore, there is not a logical proportion between parking request and the number of parking lots in Khomeinishahr.

Keywords: GIS, locating, parking, khomeinishahr

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Authors: Kaddour Ziani, Méghit Boumédiène Khaled

Abstract:

Forty Hamra single non-castrated male lambs were included in the present study. Traits analyzed were weighted at birth (BW) every 20 days. At 99.15±1.07 days old, the animals were weaned, then divided in two identical groups: control and experimental lambs (n=20) according to their live weight; 24.63±0.47 and 24.35±0.64 Kg respectively. During 59 days, two varieties of feed were given to assess the growth performance. The feeding system consisted of supplying a commercial concentrate (corn based) for control lambs. However, a similar amount of experimental concentrate (barley based) was given to the experimental ones. Both diets were supplemented with 200g straw of barley/animal/ration. 10 lambs fed with experimental concentrate were slaughtered at 37.85±0.78 Kg live weight. The growth performance, the diet cost, and some of the carcass and meat characteristics were evaluated. Chemical analysis of both given diets showed an elevated crude fibre content in the commercial concentrate. However, the experimental concentrate contained higher amounts of calcium. Both groups grew at a similar rate (p > 0.05) and showed the same final body weight. Concerning the cost of the given diet, a significant difference has been found (p ≤ 0.001), between both diets. This could affect the price of the produced meat. The dressing percentage was 46.65%, with 2.49% of carcass shrink. Furthermore, an interesting percentage of total muscle was obtained (63.73%) with a good carcass conformation scoring 9.56. Compared to other breed sheep, “Hamra” carcass could be considered as the most valuable economically.

Keywords: Carcass characteristics, feeding cost, growth performance, Hamra lamb, meat

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Siti Rodliyah, Andrik Purwasito, Bani Sudardi, Abdullah Wakit

Abstract:

This study employs sociological-ethnographic basic method and the cultural studies paradigm as the approach in understanding the habitus within the customary marriage of the East Nusa Tenggara society who require belis as a bride-price. The conceptual basis underlying the application of habitus theory and symbolic power in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) society refers to the Bourdieu’s framework. This study is a result of participatory observation on habitus of a marital system using belis observed by the NTT society as a cognitive structure which connects individuals to the social activities of the customary marriage and makes it unquestionable habits. Knowledge of the social world under the pretext of prosperity for the recipients (family) of a bride-price can be a political instrument for the sustainability of power relations. The ritual-mythical system in the society has never been fully present as a neutral habit. The habitus reflected in the marital relationship among the NTT society enables the men to obtain and exercise their power relations. The sustainability of power relations can be seen from the representation of the social status of a girl and the properties attached to her. This is what gave birth to a symbolic rule, in which the social rules about bride-price or belis eventually will serve the interests of those who occupy a dominant position in the social structure, namely the rich men.

Keywords: belis, habitus, East Nusa Tenggara, marital system, power, symbolic

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Maryam Ghoreishi, Christian Larsen

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the effect of stochastic inputs on problem of joint optimal pricing and lot-sizing decisions where the inventory cycle is divided into advance and spot sales periods. During the advance sales period, customer can make reservations while customer with reservations can cancel their order. However, during the spot sales period customers receive the order as soon as the order is placed, but they cannot make any reservation or cancellation during that period. We assume that the inter arrival times during the advance sales and spot sales period are exponentially distributed where the arrival rate is decreasing function of price. Moreover, we assume that the number of cancelled reservations is binomially distributed. In addition, we assume that deterioration process follows an exponential distribution. We investigate two cases. First, we consider two-state case where we find the optimal price during the spot sales period and the optimal price during the advance sales period. Next, we develop a generalized case where we extend two-state case also to allow dynamic prices during the spot sales period. We apply the Markov decision theory in order to find the optimal solutions. In addition, for the generalized case, we apply the policy iteration algorithm in order to find the optimal prices, the optimal lot-size and maximum advance sales amount.

Keywords: inventory control, pricing, Markov decision theory, advance sales system

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Authors: El-Sadek H. Nour El-deen, K. Harby

Abstract:

Energy saving and environment friendly applications are turning out to be one of the most important topics nowadays. In this work, a simulation analysis using TRNSYS software has been carried out to study the benefit of employing a solar adsorption cooling system under the climatic conditions of Al-Minya city, Egypt. A theoretical model was carried out on a two bed adsorption cooling system employing granular activated carbon-HFC-404A as working pair. Temporal and averaged history of solar collector, adsorbent beds, evaporator and condenser has been shown. System performance in terms of daily average cooling capacity and average coefficient of performance around the year has been investigated. The results showed that maximum yearly average coefficient of performance (COP) and cooling capacity are about 0.26 and 8 kW respectively. The maximum value of the both average cooling capacity and COP cyclic is directly proportional to the maximum solar radiation. The system performance was found to be increased with the average ambient temperature. Finally, the proposed solar powered adsorption cooling systems can be used effectively under Al-Minya climatic conditions.

Keywords: adsorption, cooling, Egypt, environment, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Rosie S. Abalos, John Patrick M. Dizon

Abstract:

The operation of fish cages in mariculture parks for milkfish production remains a lucrative business for aquaculture operators. Three areas in the Philippines where mariculture parks are still in active operation were identified as study sites for this research. Financial analysis was used to estimate profitability of mariculture operations in the selected study sites. Based on the result of this research, milkfish production in mariculture parks remains profitable both in terms of net profit generation and the return on investment. To improve the profitability of aquaculture operations in mariculture parks, the relatively high price of operational inputs should be managed. As a recommendation, further studies should be conducted on the profitability of aquaculture operations in mariculture parks in the country to include other factors which may cause losses on the part of the operator and factors that may affect price of produce upon harvest.

Keywords: mariculture parks, milkfish production, aquaculture, profitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Ketsada Sutthiumporn, Sittichot Thongkaw, Malee Santikunaporn

Abstract:

In Thailand, biodiesel has been utilized as an attractive substitute of petroleum diesel and the government imposes a mandatory biodiesel blending requirement in transport sector to improve energy security, support agricultural sector and reduce emissions. Though biodiesel blend has many advantages over diesel fuel such as improved lubricity, low sulfur content and higher flash point, there are still some technical problems such as oxidative stability, poor cold- flow properties and impurity. Such problems were related to the fatty acid composition in feedstock. Moreover, Thailand has announced the use of low sulfur diesel as a base diesel and will be continually upgrading to EURO 5 in 2023. With ultra low sulfur content, it may affect the diesel fuel properties especially lubricity as well. Therefore, in this study, the physical and chemical properties of palm oil-based biodiesel in low sulfur diesel blends from different producers will be investigated by standard methods per ASTM and EN. Also, its economic benefits based on diesel price structure in Thailand will be highlighted. The appropriate biodiesel blend ratio can affect the physico-chemical properties and reasonable price in the country. Properties of biodiesel, including specific gravity, kinematic viscosity, FAME composition, flash point, sulfur, water, oxidation stability and lubricity were measured by standard methods of ASTM and EN. The results show that the FAME composition of biodiesel has the fatty acid of C12:0 to C20:1, mostly in C16:0, C18:0, C18:1, and C18:2, which were main characteristic compositions of palm biodiesel. The physical and chemical properties of biodiesel blended diesel was found to be increases with an increasing amount of biodiesel such as specific gravity, flash point and kinematic viscosity while sulfur value was decreased. Moreover, in this study, the various properties of each biodiesel blends were plotted to determine the appropriate proportional range of biodiesel-blended diesel with an optimum fuel price.It can be seen that the amount of B100 can be filled from 1% up to 7% in which the quality was in accordance with Notification of the department of Energy business.The understanding of relation between physico-chemical properties of palm oil-based biodiesel and pricing is beneficial to guide the better development of desired feedstock in Thailand and to implement biodiesel blends with comparative price and diesel engine performance.

Keywords: fatty acid methyl ester, biodiesel, fuel price structure, palm oil in Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: S. R. Kumar, Shashikant Rajpal

Abstract:

A nanocrystalline thin film of ZnSe was successfully electrodeposited on copper substrate using a non-aqueous solution and subsequently annealed in air at 400°C. XRD analysis indicates the polycrystalline deposit of (111) plane in both the cases. The sharpness of the peak increases due to annealing of the film and average grain size increases to 20 nm to 27nm. SEM photograph indicate that grains are uniform and densely distributed over the surface. Due to annealing the average grain size increased by 20%. The EDS spectroscopy shows the ratio of Zn & Se is 1.1 in case of annealed film. AFM analysis indicates the average roughness of the film reduces from 181nm to 165nm due to annealing of the film. The bandgap also decreases from 2.71eV to 2.62eV.

Keywords: electrodeposition, non-aqueous medium, SEM, XRD

Procedia PDF Downloads 468