Search results for: combined forecast

Authors: Jan Jezek, Zdenek Pilat, Filip Smatlo, Pavel Zemanek

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We present a device that combines fluorescence spectroscopy with fiber optics and dielectrophoretic micromanipulation in PDMS (poly-(dimethylsiloxane)) microfluidic chips. The device allows high speed detection (in the order of kHz) of the fluorescence signal, which is coming from the sample by an inserted optical fiber, e.g. from a micro-droplet flow in a microfluidic chip, or even from the liquid flowing in the transparent capillary, etc. The device uses a laser diode at a wavelength suitable for excitation of fluorescence, excitation and emission filters, optics for focusing the laser radiation into the optical fiber, and a highly sensitive fast photodiode for detection of fluorescence. The device is combined with dielectrophoretic sorting on a chip for sorting of micro-droplets according to their fluorescence intensity. The electrodes are created by lift-off technology on a glass substrate, or by using channels filled with a soft metal alloy or an electrolyte. This device found its use in screening of enzymatic reactions and sorting of individual fluorescently labelled microorganisms. The authors acknowledge the support from the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (GA16-07965S) and Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic (LO1212) together with the European Commission (ALISI No. CZ.1.05/2.1.00/01.0017).

Keywords: dielectrophoretic sorting, fiber optics, laser, microfluidic chips, microdroplets, spectroscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 690

Authors: B. A. Alwahaby

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Background: The number of Total Knee Replacement (TKR) and Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction (ACLR) performed every year is increasing. The main aim of physiotherapy early recovery rehabilitation after these surgeries is to control pain and edema and regain Range of Motion (ROM) and physical activity. All of these outcomes need to be managed by safe and effective modalities. Kinesiotaping (KT) is an elastic non-invasive therapeutic tape that has become recognised in different physiotherapy situation as injury prevention, rehabilitation, and performance enhancement and been used with different conditions. However, there is still clinical doubt regarding the effectiveness of KT due to inconclusive supporting evidence. The aim of this systematic review is to collate all the available evidence on the effectiveness of KT in the early rehabilitation of ACLR and TKR patients and analyse whether the use of KT combined with standard rehabilitation would facilitate recovery of postoperative outcome than standard rehabilitation alone. Methodology: A systematic review was conducted. Medline, EMBASE, Scopus, AMED PEDro, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases were searched. Each study was assessed for inclusion and methodological quality appraisal was undertaken by two reviewers using the JBI critical appraisal tools. The studies were then synthesised qualitatively due to heterogeneity between studies. Results: Five moderate to low quality RCTs were located. All five studies demonstrated statistically significant improvements in pain, swelling, ROM, and functional outcomes (p < 0.05). Between group comparison, KT combined with standardised rehabilitation were shown to be significantly more effective than standardised rehabilitation alone for pain and swelling (p < 0.05). However, there were inconstant findings for ROM, and no statistically significant differences reported between groups for functional outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Research in the area is generally low quality; however, there is consistent evidence to support the use of KT combined with standardised post-operative rehabilitation for reducing pain and swelling. There is also some evidence that KT may be effective in combination with standardised rehabilitation to regain knee extension ROM faster than standardised rehabilitation alone, but further primary research is required to confirm this.

Keywords: anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction, ACLR, kinesio taping, KT, postoperative, total knee replacement, TKR

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Fong-Zuo Lee, Jihn-Sung Lai, Yung-Bin Lin, Xiaoqin Liu, Kuo-Chun Chang, Zhi-Xian Yang, Wen-Dar Guo, Jian-Hao Hong

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In recent years, climate change is a major factor to increase rainfall intensity and extreme rainfall frequency. The increased rainfall intensity and extreme rainfall frequency will increase the probability of flash flood with abundant sediment transport in a river basin. The floods caused by heavy rainfall may cause damages to the bridge, embankment, hydraulic works, and the other disasters. Therefore, the foundation scouring of bridge pier, embankment and spur dike caused by floods has been a severe problem in the worldwide. This severe problem has happened in many East Asian countries such as Taiwan and Japan because of these areas are suffered in typhoons, earthquakes, and flood events every year. Results from the complex interaction between fluid flow patterns caused by hydraulic works and the sediment transportation leading to the formation of river morphology, it is extremely difficult to develop a reliable and durable sensor to measure river bed degradation and bridge pier scouring. Therefore, an innovative scour monitoring sensor using vibration-based Micro-Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) was developed. This vibration-based MEMS sensor was packaged inside a stainless sphere with the proper protection of the full-filled resin, which can measure free vibration signals to detect scouring/deposition processes at the bridge pier. In addition, a friendly operational system includes rainfall runoff model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical model, and the applicability of sediment transport equation and local scour formulas of bridge pier are included in this research. The friendly operational system carries out the simulation results of flood events that includes the elevation changes of river bed erosion near the specified bridge pier and the erosion depth around bridge piers. In addition, the system is developed with easy operation and integrated interface, the system can supplies users to calibrate and verify numerical model and display simulation results through the interface comparing to the scour monitoring sensors. To achieve the forecast of the erosion depth of river bed and main bridge pier in the study area, the system also connects the rainfall forecast data from Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute. The results can be provided available information for the management unit of river and bridge engineering in advance.

Keywords: flash flood, river bed degradation, bridge pier scouring, a friendly operational system

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Authors: M. Lloret-Climent, J. Nescolarde-Selva

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The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.

Keywords: attractor, invariant set, tourist flows, orbits, social responsibility, tourism, tourist variables

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Authors: S. N. T. I. Sampath, J. M. S. Jayasinghe, A. P. Attanayake, V. Karunaratne

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Diabetes mellitus is one of the major public health posers throughout the world today that incidence and associated with increasing mortality. Insufficient regulation of the blood glucose level might be serious effects for health and its necessity to identify new therapeutics that have ability to reduce hyperglycaemic condition in the human body. Even though synthetic antidiabetic drugs are more effective to control diabetes mellitus, there are considerable side effects have been reported. Thus, there is an increasing demand for searching new natural products having high antidiabetic activity with lesser side effects. The purposes of the present study were to evaluate different physical parameters and in-vitro and in-vivo antidiabetic potential of the selected combined medicinal plant extracts mixture composed of leaves of Murraya koenigii, cloves of Allium sativum, fruits of Garcinia queasita and seeds of Piper nigrum. The selected plants parts were mixed and ground together and extracted sequentially into the hexane, ethyl acetate and methanol. Solvents were evaporated and they were further dried by freeze-drying to obtain a fine powder of each extract. Various physical parameters such as moisture, total ash, acid insoluble ash and water soluble ash were evaluated using standard test procedures. In-vitro antidiabetic activity of combined plant extracts mixture was screened using enzyme assays such as α-amylase inhibition assay and α-glucosidase inhibition assay. The acute anti-hyperglycaemic activity was performed using oral glucose tolerance test for the streptozotocin induced diabetic Wistar rats to find out in-vivo antidiabetic activity of combined plant extracts mixture and it was assessed through total oral glucose tolerance curve (TAUC) values. The percentage of moisture content, total ash content, acid insoluble ash content and water soluble ash content were ranged of 7.6-17.8, 8.1-11.78, 0.019-0.134 and 6.2-9.2 respectively for the plant extracts and those values were less than standard values except the methanol extract. The hexane and ethyl acetate extracts exhibited highest α-amylase (IC50 = 25.7 ±0.6; 27.1 ±1.2 ppm) and α-glucosidase (IC50 = 22.4 ±0.1; 33.7 ±0.2 ppm) inhibitory activities than methanol extract (IC50 = 360.2 ±0.6; 179.6 ±0.9 ppm) when compared with the acarbose positive control (IC50 = 5.7 ±0.4; 17.1 ±0.6 ppm). The TAUC values for hexane, ethyl acetate, and methanol extracts and glibenclamide (positive control) treated rats were 8.01 ±0.66; 8.05 ±1.07; 8.40±0.50; 5.87 ±0.93 mmol/L.h respectively, whereas in diabetic control rats the TAUC value was 13.22 ±1.07 mmol/L.h. Administration of plant extracts treated rats significantly suppressed (p<0.05) the rise in plasma blood glucose levels compared to control rats but less significant than glibenclamide. The obtained results from in-vivo and in-vitro antidiabetic study showed that the hexane and ethyl acetate extracts of selected combined plant mixture might be considered as a potential source to isolate natural antidiabetic agents and physical parameters of hexane and ethyl acetate extracts will helpful to develop antidiabetic drug with further standardize properties.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, in-vitro antidiabetic assays, medicinal plants, standardization

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

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In this paper, the BP neural network model is established to predict the carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City. First of all, we find the data of carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City from September 30, 2015 to December 23, 2016. The carbon trading price and trading volume data were processed to get the average value of each 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 carbon trading price and trading volume. Then, these data are used as input of BP neural network model. Finally, after the training of BP neural network, the prediction values of Shanghai carbon trading price and trading volume are obtained, and the model is tested.

Keywords: Carbon trading price, carbon trading volume, BP neural network model, Shanghai City

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Authors: Nicole Bandow, Peter Emmermacher, Oliver Wienert, Steffen Masik, Kerstin Witte

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Karate-kumite is a fast sport where a good perception and anticipation of movements is needed in order to respond appropriately. Perception and anticipation are therefore essential for an efficient and precise movement control and a limiting factor in karate kumite. Previous studies only used 2D video technologies combined with the occlusion technique to study anticipation in sports. These studies showed limitations in the usage of 2D video footage in regards to realism and the presentation of depth information. To overcome these issues a virtual 3D environment was developed to create a similar to real life environment. The aim of this study was to compare the differences in responses of intermediate and expert karate athletes towards temporally and spatially occluded virtual karate attacks from two attackers. Five male expert and five intermediate karate athletes responded physically to nine (3 temporal combined with 3 spatial) occluded attacks of the Gyaku-Zuki of each attacker in the 3D virtual environment. The responses were evaluated in regards to correct point of time and appropriate response technique. Significant differences between the expertises’ responses for the attackers were found. Experts respond more often correct to early information of attacks than novices.

Keywords: anticipation, karate, occlusion, virtual reality

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Authors: Kemal Çomakli, Uğur Çakir, Ayşegül Çokgez Kuş, Erol Şahin

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Kind of energy that buildings need changes in various types, like heating energy, cooling energy, electrical energy and thermal energy for hot top water. Usually the processes or systems produce thermal energy causes emitting pollutant emissions while they produce heat because of fossil fuels they use. A lower consumption of thermal energy will contribute not only to a reduction in the running costs, but also in the reduction of pollutant emissions that contribute to the greenhouse effect and a lesser dependence of the hospital on the external power supply. Cogeneration or CHP (Combined heat and Power) is the system that produces power and usable heat simultaneously. Combined production of mechanical or electrical and thermal energy using a simple energy source, such as oil, coal, natural or liquefied gas, biomass or the sun; affords remarkable energy savings and frequently makes it possible to operate with greater efficiency when compared to a system producing heat and power separately. Because of the life standard of humanity in new age, energy sources must be continually and best qualified. For this reason the installation of a system for the simultaneous generation of electrical, heating and cooling energy would be one of the best solutions if we want to have qualified energy and reduce investment and operating costs and meet ecological requirements. This study aims to bring out the contributions of cogeneration systems to the environment and sustainability by saving the energy and reducing the emissions.

Keywords: sustainability, cogeneration systems, energy economy, energy saving

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Authors: Anastasia K. Eleftheriadou, Athanasios Sfetsos, Nikolaos Gounaris

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The present work examines the suitability of a seasonal forecasting model downscaled with a very high spatial resolution in order to assess the energy performance and requirements of buildings. The application of the developed model is applied on Greece for a period and with a forecast horizon of 5 months in the future. Greece, as a country in the middle of a financial crisis and facing serious societal challenges, is also very sensitive to climate changes. The commonly used method for the correlation of climate change with the buildings energy consumption is the concept of Degree Days (DD). This method can be applied to heating and cooling systems for a better management of environmental, economic and energy crisis, and can be used as medium (3-6 months) planning tools in order to predict the building needs and country’s requirements for residential energy use.

Keywords: downscaled seasonal models, degree days, energy performance

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Authors: J. Winkler, S. Chovancová

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The article deals with the relation between rainfall in selected months and subsequent weed infestation of spring barley. The field experiment was performed at Mendel University agricultural enterprise in Žabčice, Czech Republic. Weed infestation was measured in spring barley vegetation in years 2004 to 2012. Barley was grown in three tillage variants: conventional tillage technology (CT), minimization tillage technology (MT), and no tillage (NT). Precipitation was recorded in one-day intervals. Monthly precipitation was calculated from the measured values in the months of October through to April. The technique of canonical correspondence analysis was applied for further statistical processing. 41 different species of weeds were found in the course of the 9-year monitoring period. The results clearly show that precipitation affects the incidence of most weed species in the selected months, but acts differently in the monitored variants of tillage technologies.

Keywords: weeds, precipitation, tillage, weed infestation forecast

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Authors: Nikolaos Reppas, Yilin Gui, Ben Wetenhall, Colin Davie

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Injection of CO2 inside wellbore can induce different kind of loadings that can lead to thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical changes on the surrounding rock. A dual-porosity theoretical constitutive model will be presented for the stability analysis of the wellbore during CO2 injection. An elastoplastic damage response will be considered. A bounding yield surface will be presented considering damage effects on sandstone. The main target of the research paper is to present a theoretical constitutive model that can help industries to safely store CO2 in geological rock formations and forecast any changes on the surrounding rock of the wellbore. The fully coupled elasto-plastic damage Thermo-Hydraulic-Mechanical theoretical model will be validated from existing experimental data for sandstone after simulating some scenarios by using FEM on MATLAB software.

Keywords: carbon capture and storage, rock mechanics, THM effects on rock, constitutive model

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Authors: M. Manzoor, J. N. Ahmad, R. M. Giblin Davis, N. Javed, M. S. Haider

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The invasive Red Palm Weevil (RPW) (Rhynchophorus ferrugineus [Olivier] (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is one of the most destructive palm pests in the world. Synthetic pesticides are environmentally hazardous pest control strategies being used in the past with emerging need of eco-friendly biological approaches including microbial entomopathogens for RPW management. The sublethal effects of a single entomopathogenic fungus (EPF) Beauveria bassiana (WG-11) (Ascomycota: Hypocreales) and two entomopathogenic nematode (EPN) species Heterorhabditis bacteriophora (Poinar) and Steinernema carpocapsae (Weiser) (Nematoda: Rhabditida) were evaluated in various combinations against laboratory-reared 3rd, 5th and 8th instar larvae of RPW in laboratory assays. Individual and combined effects of both entomopathogens (EP) were observed after the pre-application of B. bassiana fungus at 1-2-week intervals. A number of parameters were measured after the application of sub-lethal doses of EPF such as diet consumption, development, frass production, mortality, and weight gain. Combined treatments were tested for additive and synergistic effects. Synergism was more frequently observed in B. bassiana and S. carpocapsae combined treatments than in B. bassiana and H. bacteriophora combinations. Early instar larvae of RPW were more susceptible than older instars. Synergistic effects were observed in the 3rd and 5th instars exposed to B. bassiana and S. carpocapsae at 0, 7 and 14-day intervals. Whereas, in 8th instar larvae, the synergistic effect was observed only in B. bassiana and S. carpocapsae treatments after 0 and 7 days intervals. EPN treatments decreased pupation, egg hatching and emergence of adults. Lethal effects of nematodes were also observed in all growth stages of R. ferrugineus. Reduced larval weight, increased larval, pre-pupal and pupal duration, reduced adult weight and life span were observed. Sub-lethal concentrations of both entomopathogens induced variations in the different developmental stages and reduced food consumption, frass production, growth, and weight gain. So, on the basis of results, it is concluded that synthetic pesticides should be replaced with environmentally friendly sustainable biopesticides.

Keywords: H. bacteriophora, S. carpocapsae, B. bassiana, mortality

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Maria Debora Braga, Luigi Riso, Maria Grazia Zoia

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Risk-based approaches to asset allocation are portfolio construction methods that do not rely on the input of expected returns for the asset classes in the investment universe and only use risk information. They include the Minimum Variance Strategy (MV strategy), the traditional (volatility-based) Risk Parity Strategy (SRP strategy), the Most Diversified Portfolio Strategy (MDP strategy) and, for many, the Equally Weighted Strategy (EW strategy). All the mentioned approaches were based on portfolio volatility as a reference risk measure but in 2023, the Kurtosis-based Risk Parity strategy (KRP strategy) and the Minimum Kurtosis strategy (MK strategy) were introduced. Understandably, they used the fourth root of the portfolio-fourth moment as a proxy for portfolio kurtosis to work with a homogeneous function of degree one. This paper contributes mainly theoretically and methodologically to the framework of risk-based asset allocation approaches with two steps forward. First, a new and more flexible objective function considering a linear combination (with positive coefficients that sum to one) of portfolio volatility and portfolio kurtosis is used to alternatively serve a risk minimization goal or a homogeneous risk distribution goal. Hence, the new basic idea consists in extending the achievement of typical risk-based approaches’ goals to a combined risk measure. To give the rationale behind operating with such a risk measure, it is worth remembering that volatility and kurtosis are expressions of uncertainty, to be read as dispersion of returns around the mean and that both preserve adherence to a symmetric framework and consideration for the entire returns distribution as well, but also that they differ from each other in that the former captures the “normal” / “ordinary” dispersion of returns, while the latter is able to catch the huge dispersion. Therefore, the combined risk metric that uses two individual metrics focused on the same phenomena but differently sensitive to its intensity allows the asset manager to express, in the context of an objective function by varying the “relevance coefficient” associated with the individual metrics, alternatively, a wide set of plausible investment goals for the portfolio construction process while serving investors differently concerned with tail risk and traditional risk. Since this is the first study that also implements risk-based approaches using a combined risk measure, it becomes of fundamental importance to investigate the portfolio effects triggered by this innovation. The paper also offers a second contribution. Until the recent advent of the MK strategy and the KRP strategy, efforts to highlight interesting properties of risk-based approaches were inevitably directed towards the traditional MV strategy and SRP strategy. Previous literature established an increasing order in terms of portfolio volatility, starting from the MV strategy, through the SRP strategy, arriving at the EQ strategy and provided the mathematical proof for the “equalization effect” concerning marginal risks when the MV strategy is considered, and concerning risk contributions when the SRP strategy is considered. Regarding the validity of similar conclusions when referring to the MK strategy and KRP strategy, the development of a theoretical demonstration is still pending. This paper fills this gap.

Keywords: risk parity, portfolio kurtosis, risk diversification, asset allocation

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Authors: Florian Engel

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Only with a radical change to an intrinsically motivated project team, through giving the employees the freedom for autonomy, mastery and purpose, it is then possible to develop excellent products. With these changes, combined with using a rapid application development approach, the group of users serves as an important indicator to test the market needs, rather than only as the stakeholders for requirements.

Keywords: intrinsic motivation, requirements elicitation, self-directed work, stakeholder participation

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Authors: Debneil Saha Roy

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Weather forecasting is a complex topic and is well suited for analysis by deep learning approaches. With the wide availability of weather observation data nowadays, these approaches can be utilized to identify immediate comparisons between historical weather forecasts and current observations. This work explores the application of deep learning techniques to weather forecasting in order to accurately predict the weather over a given forecast hori­zon. Three deep neural networks are used in this study, namely, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Tunn Memory Network (LSTM) and a combination of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and LSTM. The predictive performance of these models is compared using two evaluation metrics. The results show that forecasting accuracy increases with an increase in the complexity of deep neural networks.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, deep learning, long short term memory, multi-layer perceptron

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Authors: Runliang Wang, Jianhua Liu, Duo Jia, Xiaoyu Ding

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The contact between sealing surfaces plays a vital role in guaranteeing the sealing performance of various seals. To date, analyses of sealing structures have rarely considered both structural parameters (macroscale) and surface roughness information (microscale) of sealing surfaces due to the complex modeling process. Meanwhile, most of the contact analyses applied to seals were conducted only under normal loading, which still existssome distance from real loading conditions in engineering. In this paper, a multiscale rough contact model, which took both macrostructural parameters of seals and surface roughness information of sealing surfaces into consideration for the cone-cone seal, was established. By using the finite element method (FEM), the combined normal and tangential loading was applied to the model to simulate the assembly process of the cone-cone seal. The evolution of the contact behaviors during the assembly process, such as the real contact area (RCA), the distribution of contact pressure, and contact status, are studied in detail. The results showed the non-linear relationship between the RCA and the load, which was different from the normal loading cases. In addition, the evolution of the real contact area of cone-cone seals with isotropic and anisotropic rough surfaces are also compared quantitatively.

Keywords: contact mechanics, FEM, randomly rough surface, real contact area, sealing

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Authors: Leonor Varandas, Pedro D. Gaspar, Martim L. Aguiar

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One of the biggest concerns in the field of agriculture is around the energy efficiency of robots that will perform agriculture’s activity and their charging methods. In this paper, two different charging methods for agricultural standalone docking stations are shown that will take into account various variants as field size and its irregularities, work’s nature to which the robot will perform, deadlines that have to be respected, among others. Its features also are dependent on the orchard, season, battery type and its technical specifications and cost. First charging base method focuses on wireless charging, presenting more benefits for small field. The second charging base method relies on battery replacement being more suitable for large fields, thus avoiding the robot stop for recharge. Existing many methods to charge a battery, the CC CV was considered the most appropriate for either simplicity or effectiveness. The choice of the battery for agricultural purposes is if most importance. While the most common battery used is Li-ion battery, this study also discusses the use of graphene-based new type of batteries with 45% over capacity to the Li-ion one. A Battery Management Systems (BMS) is applied for battery balancing. All these approaches combined showed to be a promising method to improve a lot of technical agricultural work, not just in terms of plantation and harvesting but also about every technique to prevent harmful events like plagues and weeds or even to reduce crop time and cost.

Keywords: agricultural mobile robot, charging methods, battery replacement method, wireless charging method

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Atoui Oussama, Maazoun Azer, Belkassem Bachir, Pyl Lincy, Lecompte David

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For many decades, researchers have been focused on understanding the dynamic behavior of different structures and materials subjected to fragment impact or blast loads separately. The explosion mechanics, as well as the impact physics studies dealing with the numerical modeling of the response of protective structures under the synergistic effect of a blast wave and the impact of fragments, are quite limited in the literature. This article numerically evaluates the nonlinear dynamic behavior and damage mechanisms of Aluminum plates EN AW-1050A- H24 under different combined loading scenarios varied by the sequence of the applied loads using the commercial software LS-DYNA. For one hand, with respect to the terminal ballistic field investigations, a Lagrangian (LAG) formulation is used to evaluate the different failure modes of the target material in case of a fragment impact. On the other hand, with respect to the blast field analysis, an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation is considered to study the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) of the shock wave and the plate in case of a blast loading. Four different loading scenarios are considered: (1) only blast loading, (2) only fragment impact, (3) blast loading followed by a fragment impact and (4) a fragment impact followed by blast loading. From the numerical results, it was observed that when the impact load is applied to the plate prior to the blast load, it suffers more severe damage due to the hole enlargement phenomenon and the effects of crack propagation on the circumference of the damaged zone. Moreover, it was found that the hole from the fragment impact loading was enlarged to about three times in diameter as compared to the diameter of the projectile. The validation of the proposed computational model is based in part on previous experimental data obtained by the authors and in the other part on experimental data obtained from the literature. A good correspondence between the numerical and experimental results is found.

Keywords: computational analysis, combined loading, explosion mechanics, hole enlargement phenomenon, impact physics, synergistic effect, terminal ballistic

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Authors: Manuel Alves, Angelica Reis, Armindo Lobo, Valdemar Leiras

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In industry 4.0, it is common to have a lot of sensor data. In this deluge of data, hints of possible problems are difficult to spot. The digital twin concept aims to help answer this problem, but it is mainly used as a monitoring tool to handle the visualisation of data. Failure detection is of paramount importance in any industry, and it consumes a lot of resources. Any improvement in this regard is of tangible value to the organisation. The aim of this paper is to add the ability to forecast test failures, curtailing detection times. To achieve this, several anomaly detection algorithms were compared with a symbolic regression approach. To this end, Isolation Forest, One-Class SVM and an auto-encoder have been explored. For the symbolic regression PySR library was used. The first results show that this approach is valid and can be added to the tools available in this context as a low resource anomaly detection method since, after training, the only requirement is the calculation of a polynomial, a useful feature in the digital twin context.

Keywords: anomaly detection, digital twin, industry 4.0, symbolic regression

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Authors: Eri Sulyanti, Trimurti Habazar, Eti Farda Husen, Abdi Dharma, Nasril Nasir

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In this study, combination of some biocontrol agents with different mechanisms was an alternative to improve the effectiveness of the biological control agents. Single and combined applications of indigenous Pseudomonas fluorescens and Arbuscular Mychorrhizae Fungi (AM Fungi) isolates were tested to induce the resistance on susceptible Cavendish banana against F.oxysporum f. sp. cubense race 4 under greenhouse conditions. These isolates originally isolated from healthy banana rhizosphere at endemic Fusarium wilt areas in the centre of production banana in West Sumatra. These researches were conducted with Randomized Block Design with 16 treatments and 10 replications. The treatments were three indigenous isolates of Pseudomonas fluorescens (Par1-Cv, Par4-Rj1, Par2-Jt1) and 3 isolates of AM Fungi (Gl1BuA4, Gl2BuA6, and Gl1KeP3. The biocontrol agents were applied as single agents and combination two of them. This study demonstrated that the application of combination biocontrol organisms Pseudomonas fluorescens and AM Fungi provided were more effective than single application. The combination of Par1-Cv and Gl1BuA4 isolates was the most effective to control Fusarium wilt and followed by the combination of Par1-Cv and Gl2BuA6 and Par2-Jt1 and Gl1P3.

Keywords: pseudomonad fluorescens (Pf), arbuscular mychorrhizae fungi (AM Fungi) indigenous isolates, fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense, soil rhizosphere

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Authors: Hilman Agil Satria, Rezky Naufan Hendrawan

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Indonesia is vulnerable to geological hazard because of its location in subduction zone and have tropical climate. Landslide is one of the most happened geological hazard in Indonesia, based on Indonesia Geospasial data, at least 194 landslides recorded in 2013. In fact, research location is placed as the third city that most happened landslide in Indonesia. Landslide caused damage of many houses and wrecked the road. The purpose of this research is to make a landslide zone therefore can be used as one of mitigation consideration. The location is in Bruno, Porworejo district Central Java Province Indonesia at 109.903 – 109.99 and -7.59 – -7.50 with 10 Km x 10 Km wide. Based on geological mapping result, the research location consist of Late Miocene sandstone and claystone, and Pleistocene volcanic breccia and tuff. Those landslide happened in the lithology that close with fault zone. This location has so many geological structures: joints, faults and folds. There are 3 thrust faults, 1 normal faults, 4 strike slip faults and 6 folds. This geological structure movement is interpreted as the main factor that has triggered landslide in this location. This research use field data as well as samples of rock, joint, slicken side and landslide location which is combined with DEM SRTM to analyze geomorphology. As the final result of combined data will be presented as geological map, geological structure map and landslide zone map. From this research we can assume that there is correlation between geological structure and landslide locations.

Keywords: geological structure, landslide, Porworejo, Indonesia

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Authors: Mohamed Hesham Hamdy Abdelmohsen, Ahmed Shawky Abdul Aziz, Mona Fawzy Al-Daghma

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Helical piles are widely used as axially and laterally loaded deep foundations. Once they are required to resist bearing combined loads (BCLs), as axial compression and lateral thrust, different behaviour is expected, necessitating further investigation. The objective of the present article is to clarify the behaviour of a single helical pile of different shaft rigidity embedded in cohesion-less soil and subjected to simultaneous or successive loading patterns of BCLs. The study was first developed analytically and extended numerically. The numerical analysis was further verified through a laboratory experimental program on a set of helical pile models. The results indicate highly interactive effects of the studied parameters, but it is obviously confirmed that the pile performance increases with both the increase of shaft rigidity and the change of BCLs loading pattern from simultaneous to successive. However, it is noted that the increase of vertical load does not always enhance the lateral capacity but may cause a decrement in lateral capacity, as observed with helical piles of flexible shafts. This study provides insightful information for the design of helical piles in structures loaded by complex sequence of forces, wind turbines, and industrial shafts.

Keywords: helical pile, lateral loads, combined loads, cohesion-less soil, analytical, numerical

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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Authors: Sajida Saqira, Anthony Chariton, Grant C. Hose

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The Anthropocene has seen dramatic environmental changes which are affecting every ecosystem on earth. Freshwater ecosystems are particularly vulnerable as they are at risk from the many activities that go on and contaminants that are released in catchments. They are thus subject to many stressors simultaneously. Freshwater ecosystems respond to stress at all levels of biological organization, from subcellular to community structure and ecosystem functioning. The aim of this study was to examine the resistance and resilience of freshwater ecosystems to multiple stressors. Here we explored the individual and combined effects of copper as a chemical stressor and common carp (Cyprinus carpio) as a biological stressor on the health, functioning, and recovery of outdoor experimental pond ecosystems in a long-term, controlled, factorial experiment. Primary productivity, decomposition, and water and sediment quality were analysed at regular intervals for one year to understand the health and functioning of the ecosystems. Changes to benthic biota were quantified using DNA-based and traditional microscopy-based counts of invertebrates. Carp were added to the ponds to copper contaminated sediments (with controls) to explore the combined effects of copper and carp and removed after six months to explore the resilience and recovery of the system. The outcomes of this study will advance our understanding of the impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater ecosystems, and the resilience of these systems to copper and C. carpio, which are both globally significant stressors in freshwater systems.

Keywords: carp, copper, ecosystem health, freshwater ecosystem, multiple stressors

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Authors: Hajer Chaker Ben Hadj Kacem, Thouraya Slama, Néjiba El Yetim Zribi

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This paper analyzes the effects of gender, affiliation, prior work experience, social work, and vicarious learning through family role models on entrepreneurial skills development by students when they have learned through the entrepreneurship method in Tunisia. Authors suggest that these variables enhance the development of students’ entrepreneurial skills when combined with teaching through entrepreneurship. The article assesses the impact of these combinations by comparing their effects on the development of thirteen students’ entrepreneurial competencies, namely entrepreneurial mindset, core self-evaluation, entrepreneurial attitude, entrepreneurial knowledge, creativity, financial literacy, managing ambiguity, marshaling of resources, planning, teaching methods, entrepreneurial teachers, innovative employee, and Entrepreneurial intention. Authors use a two-sample independent t-test to make the comparison, and the results indicate that, when combined with teaching through the entrepreneurship method, students with prior work experience developed better six entrepreneurial skills; students with social work developed better three entrepreneurial skills, men developed better four entrepreneurial skills than women. However, all students developed their entrepreneurial skills through this practical method regardless of their affiliation and their vicarious learning through family role models.

Keywords: affiliation, entrepreneurial skills, gender, role models, social work, teaching through entrepreneurship, vicarious learning, work experience

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Authors: Olga Sukhoveeva

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main component of carbon biogeochemical cycle and one of the most important greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture, particularly arable soils, are one the largest sources of GHG emission for the atmosphere including CO2.Models may be used for estimation of GHG emission from agriculture if they can be adapted for different countries conditions. The only model used in officially at national level in United Kingdom and China for this purpose is DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition). In our research, the model DNDC is offered for estimation of GHG emission from arable soils in Russia. The aim of our research was to create the method of DNDC using for evaluation of CO2 emission in Russia based on official statistical information. The target territory was European part of Russia where many field experiments are located. At the first step of research the database on climate, soil and cropping characteristics for the target region from governmental, statistical, and literature sources were created. All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre provides open daily data about average meteorological and climatic conditions. It must be calculated spatial average values of maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation over the region. Spatial average values of soil characteristics (soil texture, bulk density, pH, soil organic carbon content) can be determined on the base of Union state register of soil recourses of Russia. Cropping technologies are published by agricultural research institutes and departments. We offer to define cropping system parameters (annual information about crop yields, amount and types of fertilizers and manure) on the base of the Federal State Statistics Service data. Content of carbon in plant biomass may be calculated via formulas developed and published by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation. At the second step CO2 emission from soil in this region were calculated by DNDC. Modelling data were compared with empirical and literature data and good results were obtained, modelled values were equivalent to the measured ones. It was revealed that the DNDC model may be used to evaluate and forecast the CO2 emission from arable soils in Russia based on the official statistical information. Also, it can be used for creation of the program for decreasing GHG emission from arable soils to the atmosphere. Financial Support: fundamental scientific researching theme 0148-2014-0005 No 01201352499 ‘Solution of fundamental problems of analysis and forecast of Earth climatic system condition’ for 2014-2020; fundamental research program of Presidium of RAS No 51 ‘Climate change: causes, risks, consequences, problems of adaptation and regulation’ for 2018-2020.

Keywords: arable soils, carbon dioxide emission, DNDC model, European Russia

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Authors: Panupong Makvichian

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Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is nowadays a common technology that improves navigation functions in our life. Additionally, GNSS is also being employed on behalf of an accurate atmospheric sensor these times. Meteorology is a practical application of GNSS, which is unnoticeable in the background of people’s life. GNSS Precise Point Positioning (PPP) is a positioning method that requires data from a single dual-frequency receiver and precise information about satellite positions and satellite clocks. In addition, careful attention to mitigate various error sources is required. All the above data are combined in a sophisticated mathematical algorithm. At this point, the research is going to demonstrate how GNSS and PPP method is capable to provide high-precision estimates, such as 3D positions or Zenith tropospheric delays (ZTDs). ZTDs combined with pressure and temperature information allows us to estimate the water vapor in the atmosphere as precipitable water vapor (PWV). If the process is replicated for a network of GNSS sensors, we can create thematic maps that allow extract water content information in any location within the network area. All of the above are possible thanks to the advances in GNSS data processing. Therefore, we are able to use GNSS data for climatic trend analysis and acquisition of the further knowledge about the atmospheric water content.

Keywords: GNSS, precise point positioning, Zenith tropospheric delays, precipitable water vapor

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Authors: Taner Izzet Acarer, Ece Ceylan Baba

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This paper examines green building certification systems and their current processes in comparison with anticipatory systems. Rapid growth of human population and depletion of natural resources are causing irreparable damage to urban and natural environment. In this context, the concept of ‘sustainable architecture’ has emerged in the 20th century so as to establish and maintain standards for livable urban spaces, to improve quality of urban life, and to preserve natural resources for future generations. The construction industry is responsible for a large part of the resource consumption and it is believed that the ‘green building’ designs that emerge in construction industry can reduce environmental problems and contribute to sustainable development around the world. A building must meet a specific set of criteria, set forth through various certification systems, in order to be eligible for designation as a green building. It is disputable whether methods used by green building certification systems today truly serve the purposes of creating a sustainable world. Accordingly, this study will investigate the sets of rating systems used by the most popular green building certification programs, including LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design), BREEAM (Building Research Establishment's Environmental Assessment Methods), DGNB (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Nachhaltiges Bauen System), in terms of ‘Anticipatory Systems’ in accordance with the certification processes and their goals, while discussing their contribution to architecture. The basic methodology of the study is as follows. Firstly analyzes of brief historical and literature review of green buildings and certificate systems will be stated. Secondly, processes of green building certificate systems will be disputed by the help of anticipatory systems. Anticipatory Systems is a set of systems designed to generate action-oriented projections and to forecast potential side effects using the most current data. Anticipatory Systems pull the future into the present and take action based on future predictions. Although they do not have a claim to see into the future, they can provide foresight data. When shaping the foresight data, Anticipatory Systems use feedforward instead of feedback, enabling them to forecast the system’s behavior and potential side effects by establishing a correlation between the system’s present/past behavior and projected results. This study indicates the goals and current status of LEED, BREEAM and DGNB rating systems that created by using the feedback technique will be examined and presented in a chart. In addition, by examining these rating systems with the anticipatory system that using the feedforward method, the negative influences of the potential side effects on the purpose and current status of the rating systems will be shown in another chart. By comparing the two obtained data, the findings will be shown that rating systems are used for different goals than the purposes they are aiming for. In conclusion, the side effects of green building certification systems will be stated by using anticipatory system models.

Keywords: anticipatory systems, BREEAM, certificate systems, DGNB, green buildings, LEED

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Authors: Damien Gondre, Hatem Ben Maad, Abdelkrim Trabelsi, Frédéric Kuznik, Joseph Virgone

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The use of a radiant cooling solution would enable to lower cooling needs which is of great interest when the demand is initially high (hot climate). But, radiant systems are not naturally compatibles with humid climates since a low-temperature surface leads to condensation risks as soon as the surface temperature is close to or lower than the dew point temperature. A radiant cooling system combined to a dehumidification system would enable to remove humidity for the space, thereby lowering the dew point temperature. The humidity removal needs to be especially effective near the cooled surface. This requirement could be fulfilled by a system using a single desiccant fluid for the removal of both excessive heat and moisture. This task aims at providing an estimation of the specification requirements of such system in terms of cooling power and dehumidification rate required to fulfill comfort issues and to prevent any condensation risk on the cool panel surface. The present paper develops a preliminary study on the specification requirements, performances and behavior of a combined dehumidifier/cooling ceiling panel for different operating conditions. This study has been carried using the TRNSYS software which allows nodal calculations of thermal systems. It consists of the dynamic modeling of heat and vapor balances of a 5m x 3m x 2.7m office space. In a first design estimation, this room is equipped with an ideal heating, cooling, humidification and dehumidification system so that the room temperature is always maintained in between 21^◦C and 25^◦C with a relative humidity in between 40% and 60%. The room is also equipped with a ventilation system that includes a heat recovery heat exchanger and another heat exchanger connected to a heat sink. Main results show that the system should be designed to meet a cooling power of 42W.m⁻² and a desiccant rate of 45 g_H2O.h⁻¹. In a second time, a parametric study of comfort issues and system performances has been achieved on a more realistic system (that includes a chilled ceiling) under different operating conditions. It enables an estimation of an acceptable range of operating conditions. This preliminary study is intended to provide useful information for the system design.

Keywords: dehumidification, nodal calculation, radiant cooling panel, system sizing

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Authors: Mahsa Fathollahzadeh

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The quick advancement of nanotechnology necessitates the creation of innovative theoretical approaches to elucidate complex experimental findings and forecast novel capabilities of nanodevices. Therefore, over the past ten years, a difficult task in quantum chemistry has been comprehending electron and spin transport in molecular devices. This thorough evaluation presents a comprehensive overview of current research and its status in the field of molecular electronics, emphasizing the theoretical applications to various device types and including a brief introduction to theoretical methods and their practical implementation plan. The subject matter includes a variety of molecular mechanisms like molecular cables, diodes, transistors, electrical and visual switches, nano detectors, magnetic valve gadgets, inverse electrical resistance gadgets, and electron tunneling exploration. The text discusses both the constraints of the method presented and the potential strategies to address them, with a total of 183 references.

Keywords: chemistry, nanotechnology, quantum, molecule, spin

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