Search results for: Static synchronous series compensator (SSSC)

Authors: Sonda Jallouli, Sameh Ghroubi, Salma Sakka, Abdelmoneem Yahia, Mohamed Habib Elleuch, Imen Ben Dhia, Chokri Mhiri, Omar Hammouda

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The pathophysiology, prevalence, and progression of MS are gender dependent. Indeed, the inflammation is more pronounced in women, but the neurodegeneration is more important in men. In addition, women have more sleep disorders while men suffer more from cognitive decline. These non-physical disorders can negatively affect postural balance and fall risk. However, no study has examined the difference between men and women in those physical parameters in MS. Our objective was to determine the effect gender difference on postural balance and fall risk in MS persons. Methods: Eight men and twelve women with relapsing remitting-MS participated in this study. The assessment includes a posturographic examination to assess static (with eyes opened (EO) and eyes closed (EC)) and dynamic (with EO) postural balance. Unipedal balance and fall risk were assessed by a clinical unipedal balance test and the Four Square Step Test, respectively. Sleep quality was assessed using Spiegel's questionnaire, and cognitive assessment was performed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and the Simple Reaction Time Test. Results: Compared to men, women showed an increase in CdPVm in static bipedal condition with EC (p=0.037; d=0.71) and a decrease in MoCA scores (p=0.028; d=1.06). No gender differences were found in the other tests. Discussion: Static postural balance was more impaired in women compared to men. This result could be explained by the more pronounced cognitive decline observed in women compared to men. Indeed, cognitive disorders have been shown to be predictive factors of postural balance impairment. Conclusion: women were less stable than men in the static condition, possibly due to their lower cognitive performance. This gender difference could be taken into account by therapists in training programs.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, bipedal postural balance, fall risk, sleep disturbance, cognitive deficiency

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Authors: S. Joseph Antony, Z. K. Jahanger

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Soils are subjected to cyclic loading in situ in situations such as during earthquakes and in the compaction of pavements. Investigations on the local scale measurement of the displacements of the grain and failure patterns within the soil bed under the cyclic loading conditions are rather limited. In this paper, using the digital particle image velocimetry (DPIV), local scale displacement fields of a dense sand medium interacting with a rigid footing are measured under the plane-strain condition for two commonly used types of cyclic loading, and the quasi-static loading condition for the purposes of comparison. From the displacement measurements of the grains, the failure envelopes of the sand media are also presented. The results show that, the ultimate cyclic bearing capacity (qultcyc) occurred corresponding to a relatively higher settlement value when compared with that of under the quasi-static loading. For the sand media under the cyclic loading conditions considered here, the displacement fields in the soil media occurred more widely in the horizontal direction and less deeper along the vertical direction when compared with that of under the quasi-static loading. The 'dead zone' in the sand grains beneath the footing is identified for all types of the loading conditions studied here. These grain-scale characteristics have implications on the resulting bulk bearing capacity of the sand media in footing-sand interaction problems.

Keywords: cyclic loading, DPIV, settlement, soil-structure interactions, strip footing

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Authors: Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Norou Diawara, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari

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Modeling effort is needed to predict the COVID-19 trends for developing management strategies and adaptation measures. The objective of this study was to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater could serve as a predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases using copula-based time series modeling. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Chesapeake VA was measured using the RT-qPCR method. Gaussian copula time series marginal regression model, incorporating an autoregressive moving average model and the copula function, served as a forecasting model. COVID-19 cases were correlated with wastewater viral load, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The forecasted trend of COVID-19 cases closely paralleled one of the reported cases, with over 90% of the forecasted COVID-19 cases falling within the 99% confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load could serve as a predictor for COVID-19 cases and hospitalization cases.

Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, time series, copula function

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Authors: Mounir Belattar

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In this paper the Analysis of voltage waves that propagate along a lossless exponential nonuniform line is presented. For this analysis the parameters of this line are assumed to be varying function of the distance x along the line from the source end. The approach is based on the tow-port networks cascading presentation to derive the ABDC parameters of transmission using Picard-Carson Method which is a powerful method in getting a power series solution for distributed network because it is easy to calculate poles and zeros and solves differential equations such as telegrapher equations by an iterative sequence. So the impedance, admittance voltage and current along the line are expanded as a Taylor series in x/l where l is the total length of the line to obtain at the end, the main transmission line parameters such as voltage response and transmission and reflexion coefficients represented by scattering parameters in frequency domain.

Keywords: ABCD parameters, characteristic impedance exponential nonuniform transmission line, Picard-Carson's method, S parameters, Taylor's series

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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Authors: Asif Zaman, Moinul Islam Zaber, Amin Ahsan Ali

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In recent years of industrialization, the South Asian countries are being affected by air pollution due to a severe increase in fine particulate matter 2.5 (PM₂.₅). Among them, Bangladesh is one of the most polluting countries. In this paper, statistical analyses were conducted on the time series of PM₂.₅ from various districts in Bangladesh, mostly around Dhaka city. Research has been conducted on the dynamic interactions and relationships between PM₂.₅ concentrations in different zones. The study is conducted toward understanding the characteristics of PM₂.₅, such as spatial-temporal characterization, correlation of other contributors behind air pollution such as human activities, driving factors and environmental casualties. Clustering on the data gave an insight on the districts groups based on their AQI frequency as representative districts. Seasonality analysis on hourly and monthly frequency found higher concentration of fine particles in nighttime and winter season, respectively. Cross correlation analysis discovered a phenomenon of correlations among cities based on time-lagged series of air particle readings and visualization framework is developed for observing interaction in PM₂.₅ concentrations between cities. Significant time-lagged correlations were discovered between the PM₂.₅ time series in different city groups throughout the country by cross correlation analysis. Additionally, seasonal heatmaps depict that the pooled series correlations are less significant in warmer months, and among cities of greater geographic distance as well as time lag magnitude and direction of the best shifted correlated particulate matter time series among districts change seasonally. The geographic map visualization demonstrates spatial behaviour of air pollution among districts around Dhaka city and the significant effect of wind direction as the vital actor on correlated shifted time series. The visualization framework has multipurpose usage from gathering insight of general and seasonal air quality of Bangladesh to determining the pathway of regional transportation of air pollution.

Keywords: air quality, particles, cross correlation, seasonality

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Authors: J. Knight, E. Barberà

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Language learning strategies have been defined as thoughts and actions, consciously chosen and operationalized by language learners, to help them in carrying out a multiplicity of tasks from the very outset of learning to the most advanced levels of target language performance. While research in the field of Second Language Acquisition has focused on ‘good’ language learners, the effectiveness of strategy-use and orchestration by effective learners in face-to-face classrooms much less research has attended to learner strategies in online contexts, particular strategies in relation to technological tool use which can be part of a task design. In addition, much research on learner strategies and strategy use has been explored focusing on cognitive, attitudinal and metacognitive behaviour with less research focusing on the social aspect of strategies. This study focuses on how learners mediate with a technological tool designed to support synchronous spoken interaction and how this shape their spoken interaction in the opening of their talk. A case study approach is used incorporating notions from communities of practice theory to analyse and understand learner strategies of dyads carrying out a role play task. The study employs analysis of transcripts of spoken interaction in the openings of the talk along with log files of tool use. The study draws on results of previous studies pertaining to the same tool as a form of triangulation. Findings show how learners gain pre-task planning time through technological tool control. The strategies involving learners’ choices to enter and exit the tool shape their spoken interaction qualitatively, with some cases demonstrating long silences whilst others appearing to start the pedagogical task immediately. Who/what learners orientate to in the openings of the talk: an audience (i.e. the teacher), each other and/or screen-based signifiers in the opening moments of the talk also becomes a focus. The study highlights how tool use as a social practice should be considered a learning strategy in online contexts whereby different usages may be understood in the light of the more usual asynchronous social practices of the online community. The teachers’ role in the community is also problematised as the evaluator of the practices of that community. Results are pertinent for task design for synchronous speaking tasks. The use of community of practice theory supports an understanding of strategy use that involves both metacognition alongside social context revealing how tool-use strategies may need to be orally (socially) negotiated by learners and may also differ from an online language community.

Keywords: learner strategy, tool use, community of practice, speaking task

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Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Jaehyouk Choi

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This study aims to evaluate the effective size and hysteresis characteristics of Circular Hollow Steel (CHS) damper. CHS damper is among steel dampers which are used widely for seismic energy dissipation because they are easy to install, maintain and are low cost. CHS damper dissipates seismic energy through metallic deformation due to the geometrical elasticity of circular shape and fatigue resistance around connection part. After calculating the effective size, which is found to be height to diameter ratio of √ ("3”), nonlinear FE analyses were conducted to evaluate the hysteresis characteristics. To verify the analysis simulation quasi static loading was carried out and the result was compared and satisfactory result was obtained.

Keywords: SS400 steel, circular hollow steel damper, effective size, quasi static loading, FE analysis

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Authors: M. Azadi, M. Kalhor

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Excavation of shallow tunnels such as subways in urban areas plays a significant role as a life line and investigation of the soil behavior against tunnel construction is one of the vital subjects studied in the geotechnical scope. Nowadays, urban tunnels are mostly drilled by T.B.Ms and changing the applied forces to tunnel lining is one of the most risky matters while drilling tunnels by these machines. Variation of soil cementation can change the behavior of these forces in the tunnel lining. Therefore, this article is designed to assess the impact of tunnel excavation in different soils and several amounts of cementation on applied loads to tunnel lining under static and dynamic loads. According to the obtained results, changing the cementation of soil will affect the applied loadings to the tunnel envelope significantly. It can be determined that axial force in tunnel lining decreases considerably when soil cementation increases. Also, bending moment and shear force in tunnel lining decreases as the soil cementation increases and causes bending and shear behavior of the segments to improve. Based on the dynamic analyses, as cohesion factor in soil increases, bending moment, axial and shear forces of segments decrease but lining behavior of the tunnel is the same as static state. The results show that decreasing the overburden applied to lining caused by cementation is different in two static and dynamic states.

Keywords: seismic behavior, twin tunnels, tunnel positions, TBM, optimum distance

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Authors: Jikhil Joseph, Satish Kumar S R.

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Cold-formed steel frames are preferable for framed constructions due to its low seismic weights and results into low seismic forces, but on the contrary, significant lateral deflections are expected under seismic/wind loading. The various factors affecting the lateral stiffness of steel frames are the stiffness of connections, beams and columns. So, by increasing the stiffness of beam, column and making the connections rigid will enhance the lateral stiffness. The present study focused on Structural elements made of rectangular hollow sections and fastened with screwed in-plane moment connections for the building frames. The self-drilling screws can be easily drilled on either side of the connection area with the help of gusset plates. The strength of screwed connections can be made 1.2 times the connecting elements. However, achieving high stiffness in connections is also a challenging job. Hence in addition to beam and column stiffness’s the connection stiffness are also going to be a governing parameter in the lateral deflections of the frames. SAP 2000 Non-linear static analysis has been planned to study the seismic behavior of steel frames. The SAP model will be consisting of nonlinear spring model for the connection to account the semi-rigid connections and the nonlinear hinges will be assigned for beam and column sections according to FEMA 273 guidelines. The reliable spring and hinge parameters will be assigned based on an experimental and analytical database. The non-linear static analysis is mainly focused on the identification of various hinge formations and the estimation of lateral deflection and these will contribute as an inputs for the direct displacement-based Seismic design. The research output from this study are the modelling techniques and suitable design guidelines for the performance-based seismic design of cold-formed steel frames.

Keywords: buckling, cold formed steel, nonlinear static analysis, screwed connections

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Authors: Kassahun Birhanu Tadesse, Megersa Olumana Dinka

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Reliable future river flow information is basic for planning and management of any river systems. For data scarce river system having only a river flow records like the Waterval River, a univariate time series models are appropriate for river flow forecasting. In this study, a univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied for forecasting Waterval River flow using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly river flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modeling. Different unit root tests and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were performed to test the stationarity of the observed flow time series. The time series was differenced to remove the seasonality. Using the correlogram of seasonally differenced time series, different SARIMA models were identified, their parameters were estimated, and diagnostic check-up of model forecasts was performed using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AIc) and Hannan-Quinn (HQc) criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2) x (3, 1, 3)12 was selected as the best model for Waterval River flow forecasting. Therefore, this model can be used to generate future river information for water resources development and management in Waterval River system. SARIMA model can also be used for forecasting other similar univariate time series with seasonality characteristics.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity, stationarity test, trend analysis, validation, white noise

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

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Authors: V. Villa-Cruz, H. Pérez-Ladron de Guevara, J. E. Diaz-Díaz

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Static Light Scattering (SLS) was used as a method to analyse cow's milk raw, coming from the town of Lagos de Moreno, Jalisco, Mexico. This method is based on the analysis of the dispersion of light laser produced by a set of particles in solution. Based on the above, raw milk, which contains particles of fat globules, with a diameter of 2000 nm and particles of micelles of protein with 300 nm in diameter were analyzed. For this, dilutions of commercial milk were made (1.0%, 2.0% and 3.3%) to obtain a pattern of laser light scattering and also made measurements of raw cow's milk. Readings were taken in a sweep initial angle 10° to 170°, results were analyzed with the program OriginPro 7. The SLS method gives us an estimate of the percentage of fat content in milk samples. It can be concluded that the SLS method, is a quick method of analysis to detect adulteration in raw cow's milk.

Keywords: light scattering, milk analysis, adulteration in milk, micelles, OriginPro

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Authors: Rohit Semwal, Shivam Arora, Saurav, Sangita Roy

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This work proposes a supervised framework with deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for vision-based sign language recognition of static gestures. Our approach addresses the acquisition and segmentation of correct inputs for the CNN-based classifier. Microsoft Kinect™ sensor, despite complex environmental conditions, can track hands efficiently. Skin Colour based segmentation is applied on cropped images of hands in different poses, used to depict different sign language gestures. The segmented hand images are used as an input for our classifier. The CNN classifier proposed in the paper is able to classify the input images with a high degree of accuracy. The system was trained and tested on 39 static sign language gestures, including 26 letters of the alphabet and 13 commonly used words. This paper includes a problem definition for building the proposed system, which acts as a sign language translator between deaf/mute and the rest of the society. It is then followed by a focus on reviewing existing knowledge in the area and work done by other researchers. It also describes the working principles behind different components of CNNs in brief. The architecture and system design specifications of the proposed system are discussed in the subsequent sections of the paper to give the reader a clear picture of the system in terms of the capability required. The design then gives the top-level details of how the proposed system meets the requirements.

Keywords: sign language, CNN, HCI, segmentation

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Authors: K. Rusnakova, D. Gerych, M. Stehlik

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Postural stability is a complex process involving actions of biomechanical, motor, sensory and central nervous system components. Numerous joint systems, muscles involved, the complexity of sporting movements and situations require perfect coordination of the body's movement patterns. To adapt to a constantly changing situation in such a dynamic environment as physical performance, optimal input of information from visual, vestibular and somatosensory sensors are needed. Combat soldiers are required to perform physically and mentally demanding tasks in adverse conditions, and poor postural stability has been identified as a risk factor for lower extremity musculoskeletal injury. The aim of this study is to investigate whether some personality traits are related to the performance of static postural stability among soldiers of combat troops. NEO personality inventory (NEO-PI-R) was used to identify personality traits and the Nintendo Wii Balance Board was used to assess static postural stability of soldiers. Postural stability performance was assessed by changes in center of pressure (CoP) and center of gravity (CoG). A posturographic test was performed for 60 s with eyes opened during quiet upright standing. The results showed that facets of neuroticism and conscientiousness personality traits were significantly correlated with measured parameters of CoP and CoG. This study can help for better understanding the relationship between personality traits and static postural stability. The results can be used to optimize the training process at the individual level.

Keywords: neuroticism, conscientiousness, postural stability, combat troops

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Authors: Ming Ze Kao

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Static magnetic fields (SMF) are widely used in several medical applications, especially in diagnosis of tumors. However, biological effects of the SMFs on modulating cell physiology through the Lorentz force, which is highly frequency and magnitude dependent, remain to be elucidated. Specific patterns from SMFs of static MF, delivered by means of Halbach array magnets with a gradient increment of 6.857mT/mm from center to border, were found to have profound inhibitory effect on the growth rate of human cell line derived from Nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients. The SMFs, which were shown to be noncontact, selectively impact rapid dividing cells while quiescent cells stay intact. The phenomenon acts in two modes: the arrest of cell proliferation in the G2/M phase and destruction of cell mitosis in cell division. First mode is manifested by impacting the proper formation of mitotic spindle, whereas the second results in disintegration of the cancer cell. Both modes are demonstrated when SMF was applied for 24 hours to cancer cells, the results revealed that metaphase arrest during mitosis due to activation of DNA damage response (DDR), resulting in high expression of ATM-NBS1-CHEK signaling pathways and higher G2/M phase ratio compared with control group. Here, experimental data suggest that the SMFs cause activation of cell cycle checkpoints, which implies the MFs as a potential therapeutic modality as a sensitizer for radiotherapy or chemotherapy.

Keywords: static magnetic field, DNA damage response, Halbach array, magnetic therapy

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Authors: Jonas Pedro Fabris, Alberth Almeida Amorim Souza, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo

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With the law Nº. 9279, of May 14, 1996, the Brazilian government regulates rights and obligations relating to industrial property considering the economic development of the country as granting patents, trademark registration, registration of industrial designs and other forms of protection copyright. In this study, we show the application of the methodology of Box and Jenkins in the series of deposits of industrial design at the National Institute of Industrial Property for the period from May 1996 to April 2013. First, a graphical analysis of the data was done by observing the behavior of the data and the autocorrelation function. The best model found, based on the analysis of charts and statistical tests suggested by Box and Jenkins methodology, it was possible to determine the model number for the deposit of industrial design, SARIMA (2,1,0)(2,0,0), with an equal to 9.88% MAPE.

Keywords: ARIMA models, autocorrelation, Box and Jenkins Models, industrial design, MAPE, time series

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Authors: A. Hadadi, M. Abdollahi, A. Dustmohammadi

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The growing use of DGs in distribution networks provide many advantages and also cause new problems which should be anticipated and be solved with appropriate solutions. One of the problems is transient voltage drop and short circuit in the electrical network, in the presence of distributed generation - which can lead to instability. The appearance of the short circuit will cause loss of generator synchronism, even though if it would be able to recover synchronizing mode after removing faulty generator, it will be stable. In order to increase system reliability and generator lifetime, some strategies should be planned to apply even in some situations which a fault prevent generators from separation. In this paper, one fault current limiter is installed due to prevent DGs separation from the grid when fault occurs. Furthermore, an innovative objective function is applied to determine the impedance optimal amount of fault current limiter in order to improve transient stability of distributed generation. Fault current limiter can prevent generator rotor's sudden acceleration after fault occurrence and thereby improve the network transient stability by reducing the current flow in a fast and effective manner. In fact, by applying created impedance by fault current limiter when a short circuit happens on the path of current injection DG to the fault location, the critical fault clearing time improve remarkably. Therefore, protective relay has more time to clear fault and isolate the fault zone without any instability. Finally, different transient scenarios of connection plan sustainability of small scale synchronous generators to the distribution network are presented.

Keywords: critical clearing time, fault current limiter, synchronous generator, transient stability, transient states

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Authors: Mohamed E. Khalifa, Adil A. Gobouri

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Potential synthesis of a series of 3-amino-4-arylazothiophene derivatives from reaction of 2-cyano-2-phenylthiocarbamoyl acetamide and the appropriate α-halogenated reagents, followed by coupling with different aryl diazonium salts (Japp-Klingemann reaction), and another series of 5-arylazo-thiazol-2-ylcarbamoyl-thiophene derivatives from base-catalyzed intramolecular condensation of 5-arylazo-2-(N-chloroacetyl)amino-thiazole with selected B-keto compounds (Thorpe-Ziegler reaction) was performed. The biological activity of the two series was studied in vitro. Their versatility for pharmaceutical purposes was reported, where they displayed remarkable activities against selected pathogenic microorganisms; Bacillus subtilize, Staphylococcus aureus (Gram positive bacteria), Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Gram negative bacteria) and Aspergillus flavus, Candida albicans (fungi) with various degrees related to their chemical structures.

Keywords: thiophene, 2-aminothiazole, compounds, antioxidant, antitumor, antimicrobial

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Authors: Shahida Khatoon, Mohd. Faisal Jalil, Vaishali Gautam

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The Photovoltaic (PV) generated power is mainly dependent on environmental factors. The PV array’s lifetime and overall systems effectiveness reduce due to the partial shading condition. Clustering the electrical connections between solar modules is a viable strategy for minimizing these power losses by shade diffusion. This article comprehensively evaluates various PV array clustering/reconfiguration models for PV systems. These are static and dynamic reconfiguration techniques for extracting maximum power in mismatch conditions. This paper explores and analyzes current breakthroughs in solar PV performance improvement strategies that merit further investigation. Altogether, researchers and academicians working in the field of dedicated solar power generation will benefit from this research.

Keywords: static reconfiguration, dynamic reconfiguration, photo voltaic array, partial shading, CTC configuration

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Authors: Victoria Siriaki Jorry, I. S. Mbalawata, Hayong Shin

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The main objective in a change detection problem is to develop algorithms for efficient detection of gradual and/or abrupt changes in the parameter distribution of a process or time series data. In this paper, we present a modified cumulative (MCUSUM) algorithm to detect the start and end of a time-varying linear drift in mean value of a time series data based on likelihood ratio test procedure. The design, implementation and performance of the proposed algorithm for a linear drift detection is evaluated and compared to the existing CUSUM algorithm using different performance measures. An approach to accurately approximate the threshold of the MCUSUM is also provided. Performance of the MCUSUM for gradual change-point detection is compared to that of standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart designed for abrupt shift detection using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of the expected time for detection, the MCUSUM procedure is found to have a better performance than a standard CUSUM chart for detection of the gradual change in mean. The algorithm is then applied and tested to a randomly generated time series data with a gradual linear trend in mean to demonstrate its usefulness.

Keywords: average run length, CUSUM control chart, gradual change detection, likelihood ratio test

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Authors: Wei-Na Li, Mei-Lan Piao, Nam Kim

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We proposed a novel computer-generated hologram (CGH) achieved scheme, wherein the CGH is generated from a point cloud which is transformed by a mapping relationship of a series of elemental images captured from a real three-dimensional (3D) object by using a lens array. This scheme is composed of three procedures: mapping from elemental images to point cloud, hologram generation, and hologram display. A mapping method is figured out to achieve a virtual volume date (point cloud) from a series of elemental images. This mapping method consists of two steps. Firstly, the coordinate (x, y) pairs and its appearing number are calculated from the series of sub-images, which are generated from the elemental images. Secondly, a series of corresponding coordinates (x, y, z) are calculated from the elemental images. Then a hologram is generated from the volume data that is calculated by the previous two steps. Eventually, a spatial light modulator (SLM) and a green laser beam are utilized to display this hologram and reconstruct the original 3D object. In this paper, in order to show a more auto stereoscopic display of a real 3D object, we successfully obtained the actual depth data of every discrete point of the real 3D object, and overcame the inherent drawbacks of the depth camera by obtaining point cloud from the elemental images.

Keywords: elemental image, point cloud, computer-generated hologram (CGH), autostereoscopic display

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Authors: Ibrahim Can, Fatih Tosunoğlu

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The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95 % of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: time series modelling, ARIMA model, river runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method

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Authors: Imen Amari, Kaouther Gasmi, Asma Rebaya, Salem Hasnaoui

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The problem of scheduling and mapping data flow applications on multi-core architectures is notoriously difficult. This difficulty is related to the rapid evaluation of Telecommunication and multimedia systems accompanied by a rapid increase of user requirements in terms of latency, execution time, consumption, energy, etc. Having an optimal scheduling on multi-cores DSP (Digital signal Processors) platforms is a challenging task. In this context, we present a novel technic and algorithm in order to find a valid schedule that optimizes the key performance metrics particularly the Latency. Our contribution is based on Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) solving technologies which is strongly driven by the industrial applications and needs. This paper, describe a scheduling module integrated in our proposed Workflow which is advised to be a successful approach for programming the applications based on NoC-DSP platforms. This workflow transform automatically a Simulink model to a synchronous dataflow (SDF) model. The automatic transformation followed by SMT solver scheduling aim to minimize the final latency and other software/hardware metrics in terms of an optimal schedule. Also, finding the optimal numbers of cores to be used. In fact, our proposed workflow taking as entry point a Simulink file (.mdl or .slx) derived from embedded Matlab functions. We use an approach which is based on the synchronous and hierarchical behavior of both Simulink and SDF. Whence, results of running the scheduler which exist in the Workflow mentioned above using our proposed SMT solver algorithm refinements produce the best possible scheduling in terms of latency and numbers of cores.

Keywords: multi-cores DSP, scheduling, SMT solver, workflow

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Authors: Biruk Wolde Eremacho

Abstract:

The Kombolcha to Desse road, linking Addis Ababa with Northern Ethiopia towns traverses through one of the most difficult mountainous ranges in Ethiopia. The presence of loose unconsolidated materials (colluvium materials), highly weathered and fractured basalt rocks high relief, steep natural slopes, nature of geologic formations exposed along the road section, poor drainage conditions, occurrence of high seasonal rains, and seismically active nature of the region created favorable condition for slope instability in the area. Thus, keeping in mind all above points the present study was conceived to study in detail the slope stability condition of the area. It was realized that detailed slope stability studies along this road section are very necessary to identify critical slopes and to provide the best remedial measures to minimize the slope instability problems which frequently disrupt and endanger the traffic movement on this important road. For the present study based on the field manifestation of instability two most critical slope sections were identified for detailed slope stability analysis. The deterministic slope stability analysis approach was followed to perform the detailed slope stability analysis of the selected slope sections. Factor of safety for the selected slope sections was determined for the different anticipated conditions (i.e., static and dynamic with varied water saturations) using Slope/W and Slide software. Both static and seismic slope stability analysis were carried out and factor of safety was deduced for each anticipated conditions. In general, detailed slope stability analysis of the two critical slope sections reveals that for only static dry condition both the slopes sections would be stable. However, for the rest anticipated conditions defined by static and dynamic situations with varied water saturations both critical slope sections would be unstable. Moreover, the causes of slope instability in the study area are governed by different factors; therefore integrated approaches of remedial measures are more appropriate to mitigate the possible slope instability in the study area. Depending on site condition and slope stability analysis result four types of suitable preventive and remedial measures are recommended namely; proper managements of drainages, retaining structures, gabions, and managing steeply cut slopes.

Keywords: factor of safety, remedial measures, slope stability analysis, static and dynamic condition

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Rufus Temidayo Akinnubi, M. O. Adeniyi

Abstract:

Existing diurnal air temperature models simulate night time air temperature over Nigeria with high biases. An improved parameterization is presented for modeling the diurnal pattern of air temperature (Ta) which is applicable in the calculation of turbulent heat fluxes in Global climate models, based on Nigeria Micrometeorological Experimental site (NIMEX) surface layer observations. Five diurnal Ta models for estimating hourly Ta from daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean air temperature were validated using root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean Error Bias (MBE) and scatter graphs. The original Fourier series model showed better performance for unstable air temperature parameterizations while the stable Ta was strongly overestimated with a large error. The model was improved with the inclusion of the atmospheric cooling rate that accounts for the temperature inversion that occurs during the nocturnal boundary layer condition. The MBE and RMSE estimated by the modified Fourier series model reduced by 4.45 oC and 3.12 oC during the transitional period from dry to wet stable atmospheric conditions. The modified Fourier series model gave good estimation of the diurnal weather patterns of Ta when compared with other existing models for a tropical environment.

Keywords: air temperature, mean bias error, Fourier series analysis, surface energy balance,

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Himayatullah Khan

Abstract:

This study estimates supply response function of sugarcane in Pakistan from 1980-81 to 2012-13. The study uses co-integration approach and error correction mechanism. Sugarcane production, area and price series were tested for unit root using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). The study found that these series were stationary at their first differenced level. Using the Augmented Engle-Granger test and Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, the study found that “production and price” and “area and price” were co-integrated suggesting that the two sets of time series had long-run or equilibrium relationship. The results of the error correction models for the two sets of series showed that there was disequilibrium in the short run there may be disequilibrium. The Engle-Granger residual may be thought of as the equilibrium error which can be used to tie the short-run behavior of the dependent variable to its long-run value. The Granger-Causality test results showed that log of price granger caused both the long of production and log of area whereas, the log of production and log of area Granger caused each other.

Keywords: co-integration, error correction mechanism, Granger-causality, sugarcane, supply response

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Cheng-yu Hsieh, Bo Zhang, Ahmed Hambaba

Abstract:

Stock market prediction has long been an area of interest for both expert analysts and investors, driven by its complexity and the noisy, volatile conditions it operates under. This research examines the efficacy of combining the Patch Time Series Transformer (PatchTST) with wavelet transforms, specifically focusing on Haar and Daubechies wavelets, in forecasting the adjusted closing price of the S&P 500 index for the following day. By comparing the performance of the augmented PatchTST models with traditional predictive models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformers, this study highlights significant enhancements in prediction accuracy. The integration of the Daubechies wavelet with PatchTST notably excels, surpassing other configurations and conventional models in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The success of the PatchTST model paired with Daubechies wavelet is attributed to its superior capability in extracting detailed signal information and eliminating irrelevant noise, thus proving to be an effective approach for financial time series forecasting.

Keywords: deep learning, financial forecasting, stock market prediction, patch time series transformer, wavelet transform

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Authors: G. Minak, D. Ghelli, A. Zucchelli

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of an experimental characterization of a glass fibre-epoxy composite. The behavior of the traditional two-phase composite has been compared with the one of a new three-phase composite where the epoxy matrix was modified by addition of a 3% weight fraction of montmorillonite nano-particles. Two different types of nano-clays, Cloisite® 30B and RXG7000, produced by Southern Clay Products Inc., have been considered. Three-point bending tests, both monotonic and cyclic, were carried out. A strong reduction of the ultimate flexural strength upon nano-modification has been observed in quasi-static tests. Fatigue tests yielded a smaller strength loss. In both quasi-static and fatigue tests a more pronounced tendency to delamination has been noticed in three-phase composites, especially in the case of 30B nano-clay, with respect to the standard two-phase glass fiber composite.

Keywords: bending fatigue, epoxy resin, glass fiber, montmorillonite

Procedia PDF Downloads 446