Search results for: gamma distributed degradation model

Authors: Azzouzi Fadoua

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This study focuses on the diagnosis of the dynamics of natural resources in a semi-arid mountainous weakened by natural vulnerability and anthropogenic action. This is evident in the forms of hydraulic erosion and degradation of agricultural land. The rate of this damaged land is 53%, with a strong presence of concentrated erosion; this shows that balanced and semi-balanced environments are less apparent to the Watershed, representing 47%. The results revealed the crucial role of the slopes and the density of the hydraulic networks to facilitate the transport of fine elements, at the level of the slopes with low vegetation intensity, to the lake of the dam. Something that endangers the siltation of the latter. After the study of natural and anthropogenic elements, it turned out that natural vulnerability is an integral part of the current dynamic, especially when it coincides with the overexploitation of natural resources, in this case, the exploitation of steep slopes for the cultivation of cereals and overgrazing. This causes the soil to pile up and increase the rate of runoff.

Keywords: watershed, erosion, natural vulnerability, anthropogenic

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Authors: Shree Laxmi Prashant, Subhash C. Yaragal, K. S. Babu Narayan

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Concrete is found to undergo degradation when subjected to elevated temperatures and loose substantial amount of its strength. The loss of strength in concrete is mainly attributed to decomposition of C-S-H and release of physically and chemically bound water, which begins when the exposure temperature exceeds 100°C. When such a concrete comes in contact with moisture, the cement paste is found rehydrate and considerable amount of strength lost is found to recover. This paper presents results of an experimental program carried out to investigate the effect of recuring on strength gain of OPC concrete specimens subjected to elevated temperatures from 200°C to 800°C, which were subjected to retention time of two hours and four hours at the designated temperature. Strength recoveries for concrete subjected to 7 designated elevated temperatures are compared. It is found that the efficacy of recuring as a measure of strength recovery reduces with increase in exposure temperature.

Keywords: elevated temperature, recuring, strength recovery, compressive strength

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Authors: Hassan Mahasneh, Abu Sesay

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We propose the use of relay terminals at the cell edge of an LTE-based cellar system. Each relay terminal is equipped with an omni-directional antenna. We refer to this scheme as the Omni-Relay (OR) scheme. The OR scheme coordinates the inter-cell interference (ICI) stemming from adjacent cells and increases the desired signal level at cell-edge regions. To validate the performance of the OR scheme, we derive the average signal-to-interference plus noise ratio (SINR) and the average capacity and compare it with the conventional universal frequency reuse factor (UFRF). The results show that the proposed OR scheme provides higher average SINR and average capacity compared to the UFRF due to the assistance of the distributed relay nodes.

Keywords: the UFRF scheme, the OR scheme, ICI, relay terminals, SINR, spectral efficiency

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Authors: J. Prathap Kumar, G. Vaitheeswaran

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The present study investigates the role of ammonium and potassium ion in the electronic, bonding and optical properties of dinitramide salts due to their stability and non-toxic nature. A detailed analysis of bonding between NH₄ and K with dinitramide, optical transitions from the valence band to the conduction band, absorption spectra, refractive indices, reflectivity, loss function are reported. These materials are well known as oxidizers in solid rocket propellants. In the present work, we use full potential linear augmented plane wave (FP-LAPW) method which is implemented in the Wien2k package within the framework of density functional theory. The standard DFT functional local density approximation (LDA) and generalized gradient approximation (GGA) always underestimate the band gap by 30-40% due to the lack of derivative discontinuities of the exchange-correlation potential with respect to an occupation number. In order to get reliable results, one must use hybrid functional (HSE-PBE), GW calculations and Tran-Blaha modified Becke-Johnson (TB-mBJ) potential. It is very well known that hybrid functionals GW calculations are very expensive, the later methods are computationally cheap. The new developed TB-mBJ functionals use information kinetic energy density along with the charge density employed in DFT. The TB-mBJ functionals cannot be used for total energy calculations but instead yield very much improved band gap. The obtained electronic band gap at gamma point for both the ammonium dinitramide and potassium dinitramide are found to be 2.78 eV and 3.014 eV with GGA functional, respectively. After the inclusion of TB-mBJ, the band gap improved by 4.162 eV for potassium dinitramide and 4.378 eV for ammonium dinitramide. The nature of the band gap is direct in ADN and indirect in KDN. The optical constants such as dielectric constant, absorption, and refractive indices, birefringence values are presented. Overall as there are no experimental studies we present the improved band gap with TB-mBJ functional following with optical properties.

Keywords: ammonium dinitramide, potassium dinitramide, DFT, propellants

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Authors: Brian W. Mandikiana

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Homestead food production has the potential to alleviate hunger, improve health and nutrition for children and adults. This article examines the relationship between self-reported hunger and homestead food production using the ordered probit model. A sample of households participating in homestead food production was drawn from the first wave of the South African National Income Dynamics Survey, a nationally representative cross-section. The sample selection problem was corrected using an ordered probit model with sample selection approach. The findings show that homestead food production exerts a positive and significant impact on children and adults’ ability to cope with hunger and malnutrition. Yet, on the contrary, potential gains of homestead food production are threatened by shocks such as crop failure.

Keywords: agriculture, hunger, nutrition, sample selection

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Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

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Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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Authors: Venkat Garigapati

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To date, more than a dozen oligonucleotide products are approved as injectable products for clinical use. However, there is no single oligo nucleotide product approved for clinical use. Oral delivery of oligo nucleotides is patient friendly administration however, many challenges involved in the development of oral formulation. Over the course of last twenty plus years, the research in this space aimed to address these challenges. This paper describes the issues involved in solubility, stability, enzymatic (nuclease) induced degradation, and permeation of nucleotides in the Gastrointestinal (GI) and how to overcome these challenges. Also, the translation of in vitro data to in vivo models hinders the formulation development. This paper describes the challenges involved in the development of Oligo Nucleotide products for oral administration. It also discusses the chemistry and formulation strategies for oral administration of oligonucleotides.

Keywords: oral adminstration, oligo nucleotides, stability, permeation, gastrointestinal tract

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Authors: Poramatdha Chutimant

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The objective of the research was to propose a model of teacher leadership in history instruction for utilization. Everett M. Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations Theory is applied as theoretical framework. Qualitative method is to be used in the study, and the interview protocol used as an instrument to collect primary data from best practices who awarded by Office of National Education Commission (ONEC). Open-end questions will be used in interview protocol in order to gather the various data. Then, information according to international context of history instruction is the secondary data used to support in the summarizing process (Content Analysis). Dendrogram is a key to interpret and synthesize the primary data. Thus, secondary data comes as the supportive issue in explanation and elaboration. In-depth interview is to be used to collected information from seven experts in educational field. The focal point is to validate a draft model in term of future utilization finally.

Keywords: history study, nationalism, patriotism, responsible citizenship, teacher leadership

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Authors: Armin Bodaghkhani, Bruce Colbourne, Yuri S. Muzychka

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The process of spray-cloud formation and flow kinematics produced from breaking wave impact on vertical and slant lab-scale bow-shaped models were experimentally investigated. Bubble Image Velocimetry (BIV) and Image Processing (IP) techniques were applied to study the various types of wave-model impacts. Different wave characteristics were generated in a tow tank to investigate the effects of wave characteristics, such as wave phase velocity, wave steepness on droplet velocities, and behavior of the process of spray cloud formation. The phase ensemble-averaged vertical velocity and turbulent intensity were computed. A high-speed camera and diffused LED backlights were utilized to capture images for further post processing. Various pressure sensors and capacitive wave probes were used to measure the wave impact pressure and the free surface profile at different locations of the model and wave-tank, respectively. Droplet sizes and velocities were measured using BIV and IP techniques to trace bubbles and droplets in order to measure their velocities and sizes by correlating the texture in these images. The impact pressure and droplet size distributions were compared to several previously experimental models, and satisfactory agreements were achieved. The distribution of droplets in front of both models are demonstrated. Due to the highly transient process of spray formation, the drag coefficient for several stages of this transient displacement for various droplet size ranges and different Reynolds number were calculated based on the ensemble average method. From the experimental results, the slant model produces less spray in comparison with the vertical model, and the droplet velocities generated from the wave impact with the slant model have a lower velocity as compared with the vertical model.

Keywords: spray charachteristics, droplet size and velocity, wave-body interactions, bubble image velocimetry, image processing

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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Authors: Dorothea Voß, Tobias Esser, Michael Huber, Jakob Albert

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The growing world population and the associated increase in demand for energy and consumer goods, as well as increasing waste production, requires the development of sustainable processes. In addition, the increasing environmental awareness of our society is a driving force for the requirement that processes must be as resource and energy efficient as possible. In this context, the use of polyoxometalate catalysts (POMs) has emerged as a promising approach for the development of green processes. POMs are bifunctional polynuclear metal-oxo-anion cluster characterized by a strong Brønsted acidity, a high proton mobility combined with fast multi-electron transfer and tunable redox potential. In addition, POMs are soluble in many commonly known solvents and exhibit resistance to hydrolytic and oxidative degradation. Due to their structure and excellent physicochemical properties, POMs are efficient acid and oxidation catalysts that have attracted much attention in recent years. Oxidation processes with molecular oxygen are worth mentioning here. However, the fact that the POM catalysts are homogeneous poses a challenge for downstream processing of product solutions and recycling of the catalysts. In this regard, nanofiltration membranes have gained increasing interest in recent years, particularly due to their relative sustainability advantage over other technologies and their unique properties such as increased selectivity towards multivalent ions. In order to establish an efficient downstream process for the highly selective separation of homogeneous POM catalysts from aqueous solutions using nanofiltration membranes, a laboratory-scale membrane system was designed and constructed. By varying various process parameters, a sensitivity analysis was performed on a model system to develop an optimized method for the recovery of POM catalysts. From this, process-relevant key figures such as the rejection of various system components were derived. These results form the basis for further experiments on other systems to test the transferability to serval separation tasks with different POMs and products, as well as for recycling experiments of the catalysts in processes on laboratory scale.

Keywords: downstream processing, nanofiltration, polyoxometalates, homogeneous catalysis, green chemistry

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Authors: M. S. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, S. Zolghadri, F. Abbasi-Davani

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Dosimetry is an indispensable and precious factor in patient treatment planning; to minimize the absorbed dose in vital tissues. In this study, In accordance with the proper characteristics of DOTATOC and ¹⁷⁷Lu, after preparing ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC at the optimal conditions for the first time in Iran, radionuclidic and radiochemical purity of the solution was investigated using an HPGe spectrometer and ITLC method, respectively. The biodistribution of the compound was assayed for treatment of adenocarcinoma breast cancer in bearing BALB/c mice. The results have demonstrated that ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC is a profitable selection for therapy of the tumors. Because of the vital role of internal dosimetry before and during therapy, the effort to improve the accuracy and rapidity of dosimetric calculations is necessary. For this reason, a new method was accomplished to calculate the absorbed dose through mixing between compartmental model, animal dosimetry and extrapolated data from animal to human and using MIRD method. Despite utilization of compartmental model based on the experimental data, it seems this approach may increase the accuracy of dosimetric data, confidently.

Keywords: ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC, biodistribution modeling, compartmental model, internal dosimetry

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Authors: Adesuyi Ayodeji Steve, Zahn Munch

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This study investigates the use of MODIS NDVI to identify agricultural land cover change areas on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend in the study area. An ISODATA classification was performed on the MODIS imagery to select only the agricultural class producing 3 class groups namely: agriculture, agriculture/semi-natural, and semi-natural. NDVI signatures were created for the time series to identify areas dominated by cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data. The NDVI signature curve and training samples aided in creating a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9. From the training samples two classification models were built in WEKA using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 included ISODATA classification and Model 2 without, both having accuracies of 90.7% and 88.3% respectively. The two models were used to classify the whole study area, thus producing two land cover maps with Model 1 and 2 having classification accuracies of 77% and 80% respectively. Model 2 was used to create change detection maps for all the other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. 41% of the catchment comprises of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyard largely remained constant over the years, with some conversion to vineyard (1%) from other land cover classes. Some of the changes might be as a result of misclassification and crop rotation system.

Keywords: change detection, land cover, modis, NDVI

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

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Authors: G. Agrawal, R. Agrawal, A. Pich

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The pH and temperature responsive biodegradable poly(N-vinylcaprolactam) (PVCL) based microgels functionalized with itaconic acid (IA) units are prepared via precipitation polymerization for drug delivery applications. Volume phase transition temperature (VPTT) of the obtained microgels is influenced by both IA content and pH of the surrounding medium. The developed microgels can be degraded under acidic conditions due to the presence of hydrazone based crosslinking points inside the microgel network. The microgel particles are able to effectively encapsulate doxorubicin (DOX) drug and exhibit low drug leakage under physiological conditions. At low pH, rapid DOX release is observed due to the changes in electrostatic interactions along with the degradation of particles. The results of the cytotoxicity assay further display that the DOX-loaded microgel exhibit effective antitumor activity against HeLa cells demonstrating their great potential as drug delivery carriers for cancer therapy.

Keywords: degradable, drug delivery, hydrazone linkages, microgels, responsive

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Authors: P. Řehoř, D. Holátová, V. Doležalová

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Paper deals with analysis of strategic management methods in non-profit making organization in the Czech Republic. Strategic management represents an aggregate of methods and approaches that can be applied for managing organizations - in this article the organizations which associate owners and keepers of non-state forest properties. Authors use these methods of strategic management: analysis of stakeholders, SWOT analysis and questionnaire inquiries. The questionnaire was distributed electronically via e-mail. In October 2013 we obtained data from a total of 84 questionnaires. Based on the results the authors recommend the using of confrontation strategy which improves the competitiveness of non-profit making organizations.

Keywords: strategic management, non-profit making organization, strategy analysis, SWOT analysis, strategy, competitiveness

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

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Recently, feedback control systems using random dither quantizers have been proposed for linear discrete-time systems. However, the constraints imposed on state and control variables have not yet been taken into account for the design of feedback control systems with random dither quantization. Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. An important advantage of model predictive control is its ability to handle constraints imposed on state and control variables. Based on the model predictive control approach, the objective of this paper is to present a control method that satisfies probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, this paper provides a method for solving the optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, random dither, quantization

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Authors: Lou-Hon Sun, Yu-Ming Chiu, Chen-Wei Tao, Chia-Yun Tsai

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It is common practice for many companies to ask employees to provide heart-touching service for customers and to emphasize the attitude of 'customer first'. However, services may not necessarily gain praise, and may actually be considered excessive, if customers do not appreciate such behaviors. In reality, many restaurant businesses try to provide as much service as possible without taking into account whether over-provision may lead to negative customer reception. A survey of 894 people in Britain revealed that 49 percent of respondents consider over-attentive waiters the most annoying aspect of dining out. It can be seen that merely aiming to exceed customers’ expectations without actually addressing their needs, only further distances and dissociates the standard of services from the goals of customer satisfaction itself. Over-service is defined, as 'service provided that exceeds customer expectations, or simply that customers deemed redundant, resulting in negative perception'. It was found that customers’ reactions and complaints concerning over-service are not as intense as those against service failures caused by the inability to meet expectations; consequently, it is more difficult for managers to become aware of the existence of over-service. Thus the ability to manage over-service behaviors is a significant topic for consideration. The Kano model classifies customer preferences into five categories: attractive quality attribute, one-dimensional quality attribute, must-be quality attribute, indifferent quality attribute and reverse quality attributes. The model is still very popular for researchers to explore the quality aspects and customer satisfaction. Nevertheless, several studies indicated that Kano’s model could not fully capture the nature of service quality. The concept of over-service can be used to restructure the model and provide a better understanding of the service quality construct. In this research, the structure of Kano's two-dimensional questionnaire will be used to classify the factors into different dimensions. The same questions will be used in the second questionnaire for identifying the over-service experienced of the respondents. The finding of these two questionnaires will be used to analyze the relevance between service quality classification and over-service behaviors. The subjects of this research are customers of fine dining chain restaurants. Three hundred questionnaires will be issued based on the stratified random sampling method. Items for measurement will be derived from DINESERV scale. The tangible dimension of the questionnaire will be eliminated due to this research is focused on the employee behaviors. Quality attributes of the Kano model are often regarded as an instrument for improving customer satisfaction. The concept of over-service can be used to restructure the model and provide a better understanding of service quality construct. The extension of the Kano model will not only develop a better understanding of customer needs and expectations but also enhance the management of service quality.

Keywords: consumer satisfaction, DINESERV, kano model, over-service

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Authors: T. M. Al Muhareb

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Any organization should take into consideration the customers’ satisfaction while providing any service to their customers. The quality of services is always considered as the main aspect that attracts the customers’ attention and helps the airports to develop their services and operations. King Khalid International Airport is considered as the gateway of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to identify the quality service in the departure area at in King Khalid Airport. The SERVQUAL questionnaire was distributed among the passengers in King Khalid International Airport and the respondents have reached to 500 passengers. The results that are obtained from the SERVQUAL questionnaire showed that the quality of airport’s services is low.

Keywords: service quality, SERVQUAL methodology, King Khalid International Airport (KKIA), customers’ satisfaction

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Authors: Azhar Alhasawi, Vasu D. Appanna

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Chitin, the second most abundant bio-polymer in nature after cellulose, composed of β (1→4) linked N-acetylglucosamine (GlcNAc), is a major structural component in the cell walls of fungi and the shells of crustaceans. Chitin and its derivatives are gaining importance of economic value due to its biological activity and its industrial and biomedical applications. There are several methods to hydrolyze chitin to NAG, but they are typically expensive and environmentally unfriendly. Chitinase which catalyzes the breakdown of chitin to NAG has received much attention owing to its various applications in biotechnology. The presented research examines the ability of the versatile soil microbe, Pseudomonas fluorescens grown in chitin medium to produce chitinase and a variety of value-added products under abiotic stress. We have found that with high pH, Pseudomonas fluorescens enable to metabolize chitin more than with neutral pH and the overexpression of chitinase was also increased. P-dimethylaminobenzaldehyde (DMAB) assay for NAG production will be monitored and a combination of sodium dodecyl polyacrylamide gels will be used to monitor the proteomic and metabolomic changes as a result of the abiotic stress. The bioreactor of chitinase will also be utilized.

Keywords: Pseudomonas fluorescens, chitin, DMAB, chitinase

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Abdelhadi Elharfi

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A problem of boundary feedback (exponential) stabilization of an overhead crane model represented by a PDE is considered. For any $r>0$, the exponential stability at the desired decay rate $r$ is solved in semi group setting by a collocated-type stabiliser of a target system combined with a term involving the solution of an appropriate PDE.

Keywords: feedback stabilization, semi group and generator, overhead crane system

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Ezeamagu M.U, Madu B.C

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This study was designed to investigate the efficacy of 5Es constructivist-based instructional model on students’ retention in primary Mathematics. 5Es stands for Engagement, Exploration, Explanation, Elaboration and Evaluation. The study adopted the pre test post test non-equivalent control group quasi-experimental research design. The sample size for the study was one hundred and thirty four pupils (134), seventy six male (76) and fifty eight female (58) from two primary schools in Nsukka education zone. Two intact classes in each of the sampled schools comprising all the primary four pupils were used. Each of the schools was given the opportunity of being assigned randomly to either experimental or control group. The Experimental group was taught using 5Es model while the control group was taught using the conventional method. Two research questions were formulated to guide the study and three hypotheses were tested at p ≤ 0. 05. A Fraction Achievement Test (FAT) of ten (10) questions were used to obtain data on pupils’ retention. Research questions were answered using mean and standard deviation while hypotheses were tested using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). The result revealed that the 5Es model was more effective than the conventional method of teaching in enhancing pupils’ performance and retention in mathematics, secondly there is no significant difference in the mean retention scores of male and female students taught using 5Es instructional model. Based on the findings, it was recommended among other things, that the 5Es instructional model should be adopted in the teaching of mathematics in primary level of the educational system. Seminar, workshops and conferences should be mounted by professional bodies, federal and state ministries of education on the use of 5Es model. This will enable the mathematics educator, serving teachers, students and all to benefit from the approach.

Keywords: constructivist, education, mathematics, primary, retention

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Authors: Hanen Bouaziz-Ketata, Ghada Ben Salah, Hichem Ben Salah, Kamel Jamoussi, Najiba Zeghal

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The present study investigated the protective role of Hyparrhenia hirta on nitrate-induced liver damage. Experiments were carried out on adult rats divided into 3 groups, a control group and two treated groups. NaNO3 was administered daily by oral gavage at a dose of 400 mg/kg bw in treated groups either alone or coadministered with Hyparrhenia hirta methanolic extract via drinking water at a dose of 200 mg/kg bw for 50 days. Liver toxicity induced by NaNO3 was characterized by higher serum levels of glucose, total cholesterol and triglyceride and lower serum total protein than those of controls. Transaminases and lactate deshydrogenase activities in serum were elevated indicating hepatic cells’ damage after treatment with NaNO3. The hyperbilirubinemia and the increased serum gamma glutamyl transferase activities suggested the presence of cholestasis in NaNO3 exposed rats. In parallel, NaNO3 caused oxidant/antioxidant imbalance in the liver as reflected by the increased lipid peroxidation, the decreased total glutathione content and superoxide dismutase, catalase and glutathione peroxidase activities. Nitrate caused also a significant induction of DNA fragmentation as evidenced by the presence of a smear without ladder formation on agarose gel. Hyparrhenia hirta supplementation showed an improvement of all parameters cited above. We conclude that the present work provides ethnopharmacological relevance of Hyparrhenia hirta against the toxic effect of nitrate, suggesting its role as a potential antioxidant.

Keywords: Hyparrhenia hirta, liver, nitrate toxicity, oxidative stress, rat

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Authors: Balunkeswar Nayak, Hanjun Cao, Xinruo Zhang

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Elderberry could protect human health from oxidative stress, and reduce aging and certain cardiovascular diseases due to the presence of bioactive phytochemicals with high antioxidant capacity. However, these bioactive phytochemicals, such as anthocyanins and other phenolic acids, are susceptible to degradation during processing of elderberries to juice, jam, and powder due to intensity and duration of thermal exposure. The effects of microwave heating rate during come-up-times, using a domestic 2450 MHz microwave, on the color, total anthocyanin content and total phenolics on elderberry juice was studied. With a variation of come-up-time from 30 sec to 15 min at different power levels (10–50 % of total wattage), the temperature of elderberry juice vary from 40.6 °C to 91.5 °C. However, the color parameters (L, A, and B), total anthocyanin content (using pH differential method) and total phenolics did not vary significantly when compared to the control samples.

Keywords: elderberry, microwave, color, thermal exposure

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Authors: Haikal Achmad Thaha, Pujo Laksono, Dhamma Nibbana Putra

Abstract:

Customer service is one of the core interest in a service sector of a company, whether as the core business or as service part of the operation. Most of the time, the people and the previous research in service industry is focused on finding the best business model solution for the service sector, usually to decide between total in house customer service, outsourcing, or something in between. Conventionally, to take this decision is some important part of the management job, and this is a process that usually takes some time and staff effort, meanwhile market condition and overall company needs may change and cause loss of income and temporary disturbance in the companies operation . However, in this paper we have offer a new concept model to assist decision making process in service industry. This model will featured information platform as central tool to integrate service industry operation. The result is service information model which would ideally increase response time and effectivity of the decision making. it will also help service industry in switching the service solution system quickly through machine learning when the companies growth and the service solution needed are changing.

Keywords: service industry, customer service, machine learning, decision making, information platform

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Authors: Pavel Boška, Jan Bomba, Tomáš Beránek, Jiří Procházka

Abstract:

When using wood products bonded by polyvinyl acetate, glues such as windows are the most limiting element of degradation of the glued joint due to weather changes. In addition to moisture and high temperatures, the joint may damage the low temperature below freezing point, where dimensional changes in the material and distortion of the adhesive film occur. During the experiments, the joints were exposed to several degrees of sub-zero temperatures from 0 °C to -40 °C and then to compare how the decreasing temperature affects the strength of the joint. The experiment was performed on wood beech samples (Fagus sylvatica), bonded with PVAc with D3 resistance and the shear strength of bond was measured. The glued and treated samples were tested on a laboratory testing machine, recording the strength of the joint. The statistical results have given us information that the strength of the joint gradually decreases with decreasing temperature, but a noticeable and statistically significant change is achieved only at very low temperatures.

Keywords: adhesives, bond strength, low temperatures, polyvinyl acetate

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Authors: Jason West

Abstract:

Low profitability in agriculture production along with increasing scrutiny over environmental effects is limiting food production at scale. In contrast, the mining sector offers access to resources including energy, water, transport and chemicals for food production at low marginal cost. Scalable agricultural production can benefit from the nexus of resources (water, energy, transport) offered by mining activity in remote locations. A decision support bioeconomic model for controlled environment vertical farms was used. Four submodels were used: crop structure, nutrient requirements, resource-crop integration, and economic. They escalate to a macro mathematical model. A demonstrable dynamic systems framework is needed to prove productive outcomes are feasible. We demonstrate a generalized bioeconomic macro model for controlled environment production systems in minesites using systems dynamics modeling methodology. Despite the complexity of bioeconomic modelling of resource-agricultural dynamic processes and interactions, the economic potential greater than general economic models would assume. Scalability of production as an input becomes a key success feature.

Keywords: crop production systems, mathematical model, mining, agriculture, dynamic systems

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Alejandro Dinkelberg, Michael Quayle

Abstract:

Opinion dynamics models use an agent-based modeling approach to model people’s opinions. Model's properties are usually explored by testing the two 'degrees of freedom': the interaction rule and the network topology. The latter defines the connection, and thus the possible interaction, among agents. The interaction rule, instead, determines how agents select each other and update their own opinion. Here we show the existence of the third degree of freedom. This can be used for turning one model into each other or to change the model’s output up to 100% of its initial value. Opinion dynamics models represent the evolution of real-world opinions parsimoniously. Thus, it is fundamental to know how real-world opinion (e.g., supporting a candidate) could be turned into a number. Specifically, we want to know if, by choosing a different opinion-to-number transformation, the model’s dynamics would be preserved. This transformation is typically not addressed in opinion dynamics literature. However, it has already been studied in psychometrics, a branch of psychology. In this field, real-world opinions are converted into numbers using abstract objects called 'scales.' These scales can be converted one into the other, in the same way as we convert meters to feet. Thus, in our work, we analyze how this scale transformation may affect opinion dynamics models. We perform our analysis both using mathematical modeling and validating it via agent-based simulations. To distinguish between scale transformation and measurement error, we first analyze the case of perfect scales (i.e., no error or noise). Here we show that a scale transformation may change the model’s dynamics up to a qualitative level. Meaning that a researcher may reach a totally different conclusion, even using the same dataset just by slightly changing the way data are pre-processed. Indeed, we quantify that this effect may alter the model’s output by 100%. By using two models from the standard literature, we show that a scale transformation can transform one model into the other. This transformation is exact, and it holds for every result. Lastly, we also test the case of using real-world data (i.e., finite precision). We perform this test using a 7-points Likert scale, showing how even a small scale change may result in different predictions or a number of opinion clusters. Because of this, we think that scale transformation should be considered as a third-degree of freedom for opinion dynamics. Indeed, its properties have a strong impact both on theoretical models and for their application to real-world data.

Keywords: degrees of freedom, empirical validation, opinion scale, opinion dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 153