Search results for: H₂-optimal model reduction

Authors: Mikiyas Adugna

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Effort estimation is among the activities carried out in software development processes. An accurate model of estimation leads to project success. The method of agile effort estimation is a complex task because of the dynamic nature of software development. Researchers are still conducting studies on agile effort estimation to enhance prediction accuracy. Due to these reasons, we investigated and proposed a model on LASSO and Elastic Net regression to enhance estimation accuracy. The proposed model has major components: preprocessing, train-test split, training with default parameters, and cross-validation. During the preprocessing phase, the entire dataset is normalized. After normalization, a train-test split is performed on the dataset, setting training at 80% and testing set to 20%. We chose two different phases for training the two algorithms (Elastic Net and LASSO) regression following the train-test-split. In the first phase, the two algorithms are trained using their default parameters and evaluated on the testing data. In the second phase, the grid search technique (the grid is used to search for tuning and select optimum parameters) and 5-fold cross-validation to get the final trained model. Finally, the final trained model is evaluated using the testing set. The experimental work is applied to the agile story point dataset of 21 software projects collected from six firms. The results show that both Elastic Net and LASSO regression outperformed the compared ones. Compared to the proposed algorithms, LASSO regression achieved better predictive performance and has acquired PRED (8%) and PRED (25%) results of 100.0, MMRE of 0.0491, MMER of 0.0551, MdMRE of 0.0593, MdMER of 0.063, and MSE of 0.0007. The result implies LASSO regression algorithm trained model is the most acceptable, and higher estimation performance exists in the literature.

Keywords: agile software development, effort estimation, elastic net regression, LASSO

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Authors: K. N. Kiran, S. Anish

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It is well known that secondary flow loses account about one third of the total loss in any axial turbine. Modern gas turbine height is smaller and have longer chord length, which might lead to increase in secondary flow. In order to improve the efficiency of the turbine, it is important to understand the behavior of secondary flow and device mechanisms to curtail these losses. The objective of the present work is to understand the effect of a stream wise end-wall fence on the aerodynamics of a linear turbine cascade. The study is carried out computationally by using commercial software ANSYS CFX. The effect of end-wall on the flow field are calculated based on RANS simulation by using SST transition turbulence model. Durham cascade which is similar to high-pressure axial flow turbine for simulation is used. The aim of fencing in blade passage is to get the maximum benefit from flow deviation and destroying the passage vortex in terms of loss reduction. It is observed that, for the present analysis, fence in the blade passage helps reducing the strength of horseshoe vortex and is capable of restraining the flow along the blade passage. Fence in the blade passage helps in reducing the under turning by 7⁰ in comparison with base case. Fence on end-wall is effective in preventing the movement of pressure side leg of horseshoe vortex and helps in breaking the passage vortex. Computations are carried for different fence height whose curvature is different from the blade camber. The optimum fence geometry and location reduces the loss coefficient by 15.6% in comparison with base case.

Keywords: boundary layer fence, horseshoe vortex, linear cascade, passage vortex, secondary flow

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Authors: Hossein Bazmara, Kaamran Raahemifar, Mostafa Sefidgar, Madjid Soltani

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Angiogenesis is formation of new blood vessels from existing vessels. Due to flow of blood in vessels, during angiogenesis, blood flow plays an important role in regulating the angiogenesis process. Multiple mathematical models of angiogenesis have been proposed to simulate the formation of the complicated network of capillaries around a tumor. In this work, a multi-scale model of angiogenesis is developed to show the effect of blood flow on capillaries and network formation. This model spans multiple temporal and spatial scales, i.e. intracellular (molecular), cellular, and extracellular (tissue) scales. In intracellular or molecular scale, the signaling cascade of endothelial cells is obtained. Two main stages in development of a vessel are considered. In the first stage, single sprouts are extended toward the tumor. In this stage, the main regulator of endothelial cells behavior is the signals from extracellular matrix. After anastomosis and formation of closed loops, blood flow starts in the capillaries. In this stage, blood flow induced signals regulate endothelial cells behaviors. In cellular scale, growth and migration of endothelial cells is modeled with a discrete lattice Monte Carlo method called cellular Pott's model (CPM). In extracellular (tissue) scale, diffusion of tumor angiogenic factors in the extracellular matrix, formation of closed loops (anastomosis), and shear stress induced by blood flow is considered. The model is able to simulate the formation of a closed loop and its extension. The results are validated against experimental data. The results show that, without blood flow, the capillaries are not able to maintain their integrity.

Keywords: angiogenesis, endothelial cells, multi-scale model, cellular Pott's model, signaling cascade

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Authors: M. Yoneda

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In this paper, a lateral walking design force per person is proposed and compared with Imperial College test results. Numerical simulations considering the proposed walking design force which is incorporated into the neural-oscillator model are carried out placing much emphasis on the synchronization (the lock-in phenomenon) for a pedestrian bridge model with the span length of 50 m. Numerical analyses are also conducted for an existing pedestrian suspension bridge. As compared with full scale measurements for this suspension bridge, it is confirmed that the analytical method based on the neural-oscillator model might be one of the useful ways to explain the synchronization (the lock-in phenomenon) of pedestrians being on the bridge.

Keywords: pedestrian bridge, human-induced lateral vibration, neural-oscillator, full scale measurement, dynamic response analysis

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Authors: Sasiphan Nitayaprapha

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A commercially-supported social network has become an emerging channel for an organization to communicate with and provide services to customers. The success of the commercially-supported social network depends on the ability of the organization to keep the customers in participating in the network. Drawing from the theories of information adoption, information systems continuance, and web usability, the author develops a model to explore how a commercially-supported social network can encourage customers to continue participating and using the information in the network. The theoretical model will be proved through an online survey of customers using the commercially-supported social networking sites of several high technology companies operating in the same sector. The result will be compared with previous studies to learn about the explanatory power of the research model, and to identify the main factors determining users’ intention to continue using a commercially-supported social network. Theoretical and practical implications, and limitations are discussed.

Keywords: social network, information adoption, information systems continuance, web usability, user satisfaction

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Authors: Paras Ram, Vikas Kumar

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The transmission of Malaria with seasonal were studied through the use of mathematical models. The data from the annual number of Malaria cases reported to the Division of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand during the period 1997-2011 were analyzed. The transmission of Malaria with seasonal was studied by formulating a mathematical model which had been modified to describe different situations encountered in the transmission of Malaria. In our model, the population was separated into two groups: the human and vector groups, and then constructed a system of nonlinear differential equations. Each human group was divided into susceptible, infectious in hot season, infectious in rainy season, infectious in cool season and recovered classes. The vector population was separated into two classes only: susceptible and infectious vectors. The analysis of the models was given by the standard dynamical modeling.

Keywords: ferrofluid, magnetic field, porous medium, rotating disk, Neuringer-Rosensweig Model

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Authors: Kristin Thooft

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— Increasing pressure to manage healthcare costs has resulted in shifting care towards ambulatory settings and is driving a focus on cost transparency. There are few nurse staffing to workload models developed for ambulatory settings, less for multi-specialty clinics. Of the existing models, few have been evaluated against outcomes to understand any impact. This evaluation took place after the AWARD model for nurse staffing to workload was implemented in a multi-specialty clinic at a regional healthcare system in the Midwest. The multi-specialty clinic houses 26 medical and surgical specialty practices. The AWARD model was implemented in two specialty practices in October 2020. Donabedian’s Structure-Process-Outcome (SPO) model was used to evaluate outcomes based on changes to the structure and processes of care provided. The AWARD model defined and quantified the processes, recommended changes in the structure of day-to-day nurse staffing. Cost of care per patient visit, total visits, a total nurse performed visits used as structural and process measures, influencing the outcomes of cost of care and access to care. Independent t-tests were used to compare the difference in variables pre-and post-implementation. The SPO model was useful as an evaluation tool, providing a simple framework that is understood by a diverse care team. No statistically significant changes in the cost of care, total visits, or nurse visits were observed, but there were differences. Cost of care increased and access to care decreased. Two weeks into the post-implementation period, the multi-specialty clinic paused all non-critical patient visits due to a second surge of the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinic nursing staff was re-allocated to support the inpatient areas. This negatively impacted the ability of the Nurse Manager to utilize the AWARD model to plan daily staffing fully. The SPO framework could be used for the ongoing assessment of nurse staffing performance. Additional variables could be measured, giving a complete picture of the impact of nurse staffing. Going forward, there must be a continued focus on the outcomes of care and the value of nursing

Keywords: ambulatory, clinic, evaluation, outcomes, staffing, staffing model, staffing to workload

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Authors: Jessica Lopez Espejel, Mahaman Sanoussi Yahaya Alassan, Walid Dahhane, El Hassane Ettifouri

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Pretrained transformer-based models have shown high performance in natural language generation tasks. However, a new wave of interest has surged: automatic programming language code generation. This task consists of translating natural language instructions to a source code. Despite the fact that well-known pre-trained models on language generation have achieved good performance in learning programming languages, effort is still needed in automatic code generation. In this paper, we introduce JaCoText, a model based on Transformer neural network. It aims to generate java source code from natural language text. JaCoText leverages the advantages of both natural language and code generation models. More specifically, we study some findings from state of the art and use them to (1) initialize our model from powerful pre-trained models, (2) explore additional pretraining on our java dataset, (3) lead experiments combining the unimodal and bimodal data in training, and (4) scale the input and output length during the fine-tuning of the model. Conducted experiments on CONCODE dataset show that JaCoText achieves new state-of-the-art results.

Keywords: java code generation, natural language processing, sequence-to-sequence models, transformer neural networks

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Authors: Souad Hassene Daouadji, Larbi Hammadi, Abdelkrim Hazzab

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The slips intended for the manufacture of ceramics must have rheological properties well-defined in order to bring together the qualities required for the casting step (good fluidity for feeding the molds easily settles while generating a regular settling of the dough and for the dehydration phase of the dough in the mold a setting time relatively short is required to have a sufficient refinement which allows demolding both easy and fast). Many additives haveadded in slip of ceramic in order to improve their rheological properties. In this study, we investigated the impact of xanthan gumon rheological properties of ceramic Slip. The modified Cross model is used to fit the stationary flow curves of ceramic slip at different concentration of xanthan added. The thixotropic behavior studied of mixture ceramic slip-xanthan gumat constant temperature is analyzed by using a structural kinetic model (SKM) in order to account for time dependent effect.

Keywords: ceramic slip, xanthan gum, modified cross model, thixotropy, viscosity

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Authors: Kayode Oshinubi, Brice Kammegne, Jacques Demongeot

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The use of mathematical tools like Partial Differential Equations and Ordinary Differential Equations have become very important to predict the evolution of a viral disease in a population in order to take preventive and curative measures. In December 2019, a novel variety of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China causing a severe and potentially fatal respiratory syndrome, i.e., COVID-19. Since then, it has become a pandemic declared by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020 which has spread around the globe. A reaction-diffusion system is a mathematical model that describes the evolution of a phenomenon subjected to two processes: a reaction process in which different substances are transformed, and a diffusion process that causes a distribution in space. This article provides a mathematical study of the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Vaccinated population model of the COVID-19 pandemic by the bias of reaction-diffusion equations. Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria are determined using the Lyapunov function are considered and the endemic equilibrium point exists and is stable if it satisfies Routh–Hurwitz criteria. Also, adequate conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model have been proved. We showed the spatial distribution of the model compartments when the basic reproduction rate $\mathcal{R}_0 < 1$ and $\mathcal{R}_0 > 1$ and sensitivity analysis is performed in order to determine the most sensitive parameters in the proposed model. We demonstrate the model's effectiveness by performing numerical simulations. We investigate the impact of vaccination and the significance of spatial distribution parameters in the spread of COVID-19. The findings indicate that reducing contact with an infected person and increasing the proportion of susceptible people who receive high-efficacy vaccination will lessen the burden of COVID-19 in the population. To the public health policymakers, we offered a better understanding of the COVID-19 management.

Keywords: COVID-19, SEIRV epidemic model, reaction-diffusion equation, basic reproduction number, vaccination, spatial distribution

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Authors: Leonardo Herrera, Shield B. Lin, Stephen J. Montgomery-Smith, Ziraguen O. Williams

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A one-directional dynamic model of a Stewart Platform was developed to assist NASA in analyzing the dynamic response in spacecraft docking operations. A simplified mechanical drawing was created, capturing the physical structure's main features. A simplified schematic diagram was developed into a lumped mass model from the mechanical drawing. Three differential equations were derived according to the schematic diagram. A Simulink diagram was created using MATLAB to represent the three equations. System parameters, including spring constants and masses, are derived in detail from the physical system. The model can be used for further analysis via computer simulation in predicting dynamic response in its main docking direction, i.e., up-and-down motion.

Keywords: stewart platform, docking operation, spacecraft, spring constant

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Authors: S.K. Bhandari, E. Veneklaas, L. McCaw, R. Mazanec, K. Whitford, M. Renton

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Eucalyptus marginata, E. diversicolor and Corymbia calophylla form widespread forests in south-west Western Australia (SWWA). These forests have economic and ecological importance, and therefore, tree growth and sustainable management are of high priority. This paper aimed to analyse and model the growth of these species at both stand and individual levels, but this presentation will focus on predicting the growth of E. Marginata at the individual tree level. More specifically, the study wanted to investigate how well individual E. marginata tree growth could be predicted by considering the diameter and height of the tree at the start of the growth period, and whether this prediction could be improved by also accounting for the competition from neighbouring trees in different ways. The study also wanted to investigate how many neighbouring trees or what neighbourhood distance needed to be considered when accounting for competition. To achieve this aim, the Pearson correlation coefficient was examined among competition indices (CIs), between CIs and dbh growth, and selected the competition index that can best predict the diameter growth of individual trees of E. marginata forest managed under different thinning regimes at Inglehope in SWWA. Furthermore, individual tree growth models were developed using simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, and linear mixed effect modelling approaches. Individual tree growth models were developed for thinned and unthinned stand separately. The developed models were validated using two approaches. In the first approach, models were validated using a subset of data that was not used in model fitting. In the second approach, the model of the one growth period was validated with the data of another growth period. Tree size (diameter and height) was a significant predictor of growth. This prediction was improved when the competition was included in the model. The fit statistic (coefficient of determination) of the model ranged from 0.31 to 0.68. The model with spatial competition indices validated as being more accurate than with non-spatial indices. The model prediction can be optimized if 10 to 15 competitors (by number) or competitors within ~10 m (by distance) from the base of the subject tree are included in the model, which can reduce the time and cost of collecting the information about the competitors. As competition from neighbours was a significant predictor with a negative effect on growth, it is recommended including neighbourhood competition when predicting growth and considering thinning treatments to minimize the effect of competition on growth. These model approaches are likely to be useful tools for the conservations and sustainable management of forests of E. marginata in SWWA. As a next step in optimizing the number and distance of competitors, further studies in larger size plots and with a larger number of plots than those used in the present study are recommended.

Keywords: competition, growth, model, thinning

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Authors: Yesim Tumsek, Erkan Celebi

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In order to simulate the infinite soil medium for soil-foundation interaction problem, the essential geotechnical parameter on which the foundation stiffness depends, is the value of soil shear modulus. This parameter directly affects the site and structural response of the considered model under earthquake ground motions. Strain-dependent shear modulus under cycling loads makes difficult to estimate the accurate value in computation of foundation stiffness for the successful dynamic soil-structure interaction analysis. The aim of this study is to discuss in detail how to use the appropriate value of soil shear modulus in the computational analyses and to evaluate the effect of the variation in shear modulus with strain on the impedance functions used in the sub-structure method for idealizing the soil-foundation interaction problem. Herein, the impedance functions compose of springs and dashpots to represent the frequency-dependent stiffness and damping characteristics at the soil-foundation interface. Earthquake-induced vibration energy is dissipated into soil by both radiation and hysteretic damping. Therefore, flexible-base system damping, as well as the variability in shear strengths, should be considered in the calculation of impedance functions for achievement a more realistic dynamic soil-foundation interaction model. In this study, it has been written a Matlab code for addressing these purposes. The case-study example chosen for the analysis is considered as a 4-story reinforced concrete building structure located in Istanbul consisting of shear walls and moment resisting frames with a total height of 12m from the basement level. The foundation system composes of two different sized strip footings on clayey soil with different plasticity (Herein, PI=13 and 16). In the first stage of this study, the shear modulus reduction factor was not considered in the MATLAB algorithm. The static stiffness, dynamic stiffness modifiers and embedment correction factors of two rigid rectangular foundations measuring 2m wide by 17m long below the moment frames and 7m wide by 17m long below the shear walls are obtained for translation and rocking vibrational modes. Afterwards, the dynamic impedance functions of those have been calculated for reduced shear modulus through the developed Matlab code. The embedment effect of the foundation is also considered in these analyses. It can easy to see from the analysis results that the strain induced in soil will depend on the extent of the earthquake demand. It is clearly observed that when the strain range increases, the dynamic stiffness of the foundation medium decreases dramatically. The overall response of the structure can be affected considerably because of the degradation in soil stiffness even for a moderate earthquake. Therefore, it is very important to arrive at the corrected dynamic shear modulus for earthquake analysis including soil-structure interaction.

Keywords: clay soil, impedance functions, soil-foundation interaction, sub-structure approach, reduced shear modulus

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Authors: Bedarnia Ishak

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In the recent years, the dry reforming of methane has received considerable attention from an environmental view point because it consumes and eliminates two gases (CH4 and CO2) responsible for global warming by greenhouse effect. Many catalysts containing noble metal (Rh, Ru, Pd, Pt and Ir) or transition metal (Ni, Co and Fe) have been reported to be active in this reaction. Compared to noble metals, Ni-materials are cheap but very easily deactivated by coking. Ni-based mixed oxides structurally well-defined like perovskites and spinels are being studied because they possibly make solid solutions and allow to vary the composition and thus the performances properties. In this work, nano-sized nickel ferrite oxides are synthesized using three different methods: Co-precipitation (CP), hydrothermal (HT) and sol gel (SG) methods and characterized by XRD, Raman, XPS, BET, TPR, SEM-EDX and TEM-EDX. XRD patterns of all synthesized oxides showed the presence of NiFe2O4 spinel, confirmed by Raman spectroscopy. Hematite was present only in CP sample. Depending on the synthesis method, the surface area, particle size, as well as the surface Ni/Fe atomic ratio (XPS) and the behavior upon reduction varied. The materials were tested in methane dry reforming with CO2 at 1 atm and 650-800 °C. The catalytic activity of the spinel samples was not very high (XCH4 = 5-20 mol% and XCO2 = 25-40 mol %) when no pre-reduction step was carried out. A significant contribution of RWGS explained the low values of H2/CO ratio obtained. The reoxidation step of the catalyst carried out after reaction showed little amounts of coke deposition. The reducing pretreatment was particularly efficient in the case of SG (XCH4 = 80 mol% and XCO2 = 92 mol%, at 800 °C), with H2/CO > 1. In conclusion, the influence of preparation was strong for most samples and the catalytic behavior could be interpreted by considering the distribution of cations among octahedral (Oh) and tetrahedral (Td) sites as in (Ni2+1-xFe3+x) Td (Ni2+xFe3+2-x) OhO2-4 influenced the reducibility of materials and thus their catalytic performance.

Keywords: NiFe2O4, dry reforming of methane, spinel oxide, oxide zenc

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, D. Meena

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Growth of traffic brings various negative effects, such as road accidents. To avoid such problems, a model is developed for the purpose of highway safety. In such areas, fuzzy logic is the most well-known simulation in the larger field. A model is accomplished for hilly and steep terrain based on Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), for which output is super elevation and input data is horizontal radius, vertical gradient, accident rate (AR). This result shows that the system can be efficaciously applied as for highway safety tool distinguishing hazards components correlated to the characteristics of the highway and has a great influence to the making of decision for accident precaution in transportation models. From this model, a positive relationship between geometric elements, accident rate, and super elevation is also identified.

Keywords: accident rate, fuzzy inference system, fuzzy logic, gradient, radius, super elevation

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Authors: Serap Gedikli, Hakan Çakmak, M. Buğra Güldiken, Duygu Yalnızoğlu

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Air, which is necessary for living things to survive; while it carries some useful substances in it, it can also carry foreign particles of different sizes that may be harmful to the health. All airborne organic substances of biological origin, including bacteria, fungi, fungal spores, viruses, pollen, and their components, are called "bioaerosols". Nowadays, everyone spends most of their time in closed areas such as home, workplace, school, etc. Although it is known that outdoor air pollution affects health, it is not known that indoor air pollution has harmful effects in terms of health. In this study, indoor air microbial load and SARS-CoV-2 virus cleaning efficiency of Froumann brand air cleaners were studied. This work in 300 m³, 600 m³, and 1000 m³ completely closed areas without any air circulation with Froumann N80, N90, and N100 air-cleaning devices. Analyzes were performed for both areas at 60 minutes before and after the device was operated using a particle measuring device (Particles Plus 7302) and an air sampler (Mas-100 ECO). The measurements were taken by placing the test equipment 1.5-2 m away from the air cleaner. At the same time, the efficiency of the HEPA filter was evaluated by taking samples from the air outlet point of the HEPA filter using the air sampling device (Mas-100 ECO) after the device was started. Nutrient agar and malt agar are used as total mesophilic bacteria and total fungi. The number of colony-forming units per m³ (cfu/m³) was calculated by counting colonies in Petri dishes after incubation for 48 hours at 37°C for bacteria and 72 hours at 30°C for fungi. The change in the number of colonies and the decrease in the microbial load was calculated as a percentage value. SARS-CoV-2 activity analysis studies were carried out by İnönü University Microbiology Department in accordance with the World Health Organization regulations. Finally, the HEPA filter in the devices used was taken and kept under a certain temperature and humidity, and the change in the microbial load on it was monitored over a 6-month period. At the end of the studies, a 91%-94% reduction was determined in the total mesophilic bacteria count of Frouman brand N80, N90, and N100 model air cleaners. A decrease of 94%-96% was detected in the total number of yeast/molds. HEPA filter efficiency was evaluated, and at the end of the analysis, 98% of the bacterial load and approximately 100% of yeast/mold load at the HEPA filter air outlet point were decreased. According to the SARS- CoV-2 analysis results, when the device is operating at the medium airflow level 3, it can filter virus-carrying aerosols by 99%. As a result, it was determined that the Froumann model air cleaner was effective in controlling and reducing the microbial load in the indoor air.

Keywords: HEPA filter, indoor air quality, microbial load, SARS-CoV-2

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Authors: Hana Gebremariam Liliso

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This study investigates the factors contributing to the deterioration of thick asphalt pavements, such as rutting and cracking. We focus on the combined influence of traffic loads and pavement structure. This study uses a three-dimensional finite element model with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion to analyze the stress levels near the pavement's surface under realistic conditions. Our model considers various factors, including tire-pavement contact stresses, asphalt properties, moving loads, and dynamic analysis. This research suggests that cracking tends to occur between dual tires. Some key discoveries include the risk of cracking increases as temperatures rise; surface cracking at high temperatures is associated with distortional deformation; using a uniform contact stress distribution underestimates the risk of failure compared to realistic three-dimensional tire contact stress, particularly at high temperatures; the risk of failure is higher near the surface when there is a negative temperature gradient in the asphalt layer; and debonding beneath the surface layer leads to increased shear stress and premature failure around the interface.

Keywords: asphalt pavement, surface failure, 3d finite element model, multiaxial stress states, Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion

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Authors: Birome Holo Ba, Christian Prins, Caroline Prodhon

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Optimization is an important aspect of logistics management. It can reduce significantly logistics costs and also be a good tool for decision support. In this paper, we address a planning problem specific to biomass supply chain. We propose a new mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model dealing with different feed stock production operations such as harvesting, packing, storage, pre-processing and transportation, with the objective of minimizing the total logistic cost of the system on a regional basis. It determines the optimal number of harvesting machine, the fleet size of trucks for transportation and the amount of each type of biomass harvested, stored and pre-processed in each period to satisfy demands of refineries in each period. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposal model with a numerical example, a case study in Aube (France department), which gives preliminary and interesting, results on a small test case.

Keywords: biomass logistics, supply chain, modelling, optimization, bioenergy, biofuels

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Authors: Ayham Fattoum, Simos Chari, Duncan Shaw

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Volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) conditions threaten systems viability with emerging and novel events requiring immediate and localized responses. Such responsiveness is only possible through devolved freedom and emancipated decision-making. The Viable System Model (VSM) recognizes the need and suggests maximizing autonomy to localize decision-making and minimize residual complexity. However, exercising delegated autonomy in VUCA requires confidence and knowledge to use intuition and guidance to maintain systemic coherence. This paper explores the role of intuition as an enabler of emancipated decision-making and autonomy under VUCA. Intuition allows decision-makers to use their knowledge and experience to respond rapidly to novel events. This paper offers three contributions to VSM. First, it designs a system model that illustrates the role of intuitive decision-making in managing complexity and maintaining viability. Second, it takes a black-box approach to theory development in VSM to model the role of autonomy and intuition. Third, the study uses a multi-stage discovery-oriented approach (DOA) to develop theory, with each stage combining literature, data analysis, and model/theory development and identifying further questions for the subsequent stage. We synthesize literature (e.g., VSM, complexity management) with seven months of field-based insights (interviews, workshops, and observation of a live disaster exercise) to develop a framework of intuitive complexity management framework and VSM models. The results have practical implications for enhancing the resilience of organizations and communities.

Keywords: Intuition, complexity management, decision-making, viable system model

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Authors: Aline Valverde Arroteia, Tatiana Gondim do Amaral, Silvio Burrattino Melhado

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During the last twenty years, the construction field in Brazil has evolved significantly in response to its market growing and competitiveness. However, this evolving path has faced many obstacles such as cultural barriers and the lack of efforts to achieve quality at the construction site. At the same time, the greatest amount of information generated on the designing or construction phases is lost due to the lack of an effective coordination of these activities. Face this problem, the aim of this research was to implement a French method named PEO which means preparation for building construction (in Portuguese) seeking to understand the design management process and its interface with the building construction phase. The research method applied was qualitative, and it was carried out through two case studies in the city of Goiania, in Goias, Brazil. The research was divided into two stages called pilot study at Company A and implementation of PEO at Company B. After the implementation; the results demonstrated the PEO method's effectiveness and feasibility while a booster on the quality improvement of design management. The analysis showed that the method has a purpose to improve the design and allow the reduction of failures, errors and rework commonly found in the production of buildings. Therefore, it can be concluded that the PEO is feasible to be applied to real estate and building companies. But, companies need to believe in the contribution they can make to the discovery of design failures in conjunction with other stakeholders forming a construction team. The result of PEO can be maximized when adopting the principles of simultaneous engineering and insertion of new computer technologies, which use a three-dimensional model of the building with BIM process.

Keywords: communication, design and construction interface management, preparation for building construction (PEO), proactive coordination (CPA)

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Authors: Pier Andrea Marras, Daniela Lima, Pedro Matos Soares, Rita Maria Cardoso, Daniela Medas, Elisabetta Dore, Giovanni De Giudici

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Climate change effects on the hydrologic cycle are the main concern for the evaluation of water management strategies. Climate models project scenarios of precipitation changes in the future, considering greenhouse emissions. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) climate models were first evaluated in a Mediterranean island (Sardinia) against observed precipitation for a historical reference period (1976-2005). A weighted multi-model ensemble (ENS) was built, weighting the single models based on their ability to reproduce observed rainfall. Future projections (2071-2100) were carried out using the 8.5 RCP emissions scenario to evaluate changes in precipitations. ENS was then used as climate forcing for the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), with the aim to assess the consequences of such projected changes on streamflow and runoff of two small catchments located in the South-West Sardinia. Results showed that a decrease of mean rainfall values, up to -25 % at yearly scale, is expected for the future, along with an increase of extreme precipitation events. Particularly in the eastern and southern areas, extreme events are projected to increase by 30%. Such changes reflect on the hydrologic cycle with a decrease of mean streamflow and runoff, except in spring, when runoff is projected to increase by 20-30%. These results stress that the Mediterranean is a hotspot for climate change, and the use of model tools can provide very useful information to adopt water and land management strategies to deal with such changes.

Keywords: EURO-CORDEX, climate change, hydrology, SWAT model, Sardinia, multi-model ensemble

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Authors: Aicha Rima Cheniti, Hatem Besbes, Joseph Haggege, Christophe Sintes

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In this paper, we are interested to determine the carbon dioxide pressure in the arterial blood through radial velocity difference. The blood was modeled as a two phase mixture (an aqueous carbon dioxide solution with carbon dioxide gas) by Drift flux model and the Young-Laplace equation. The distributions of mixture velocities determined from the considered model permitted the calculation of the radial velocity distributions with different values of mean mixture pressure and the calculation of the mean carbon dioxide pressure knowing the mean mixture pressure. The radial velocity distributions are used to deduce a calculation method of the mean mixture pressure through the radial velocity difference between two positions which is measured by ultrasound. The mean carbon dioxide pressure is then deduced from the mean mixture pressure.

Keywords: mean carbon dioxide pressure, mean mixture pressure, mixture velocity, radial velocity difference

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Authors: Handie Pramana Putra, Ani Dijah Rahajoe

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The proliferation of smart devices and advancements in mobile communication technologies have permeated various facets of life with the widespread influence of e-commerce. Detecting abnormal transactions holds paramount significance in this realm due to the potential for substantial financial losses. Moreover, the fusion of data flow and control flow assumes a critical role in the exploration of process modeling and data analysis, contributing significantly to the accuracy and security of business processes. This paper introduces an alternative approach to identify abnormal transactions through a model that integrates both data and control flows. Referred to as the Extended Data Petri net (DPNE), our model encapsulates the entire process, encompassing user login to the e-commerce platform and concluding with the payment stage, including the mobile transaction process. We scrutinize the model's structure, formulate an algorithm for detecting anomalies in pertinent data, and elucidate the rationale and efficacy of the comprehensive system model. A case study validates the responsive performance of each system component, demonstrating the system's adeptness in evaluating every activity within mobile transactions. Ultimately, the results of anomaly detection are derived through a thorough and comprehensive analysis.

Keywords: database, data analysis, DPNE, extended data flow, e-commerce

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Authors: David A. Swanson, Lucky M. Tedrow

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Taylor’s Law is a widely observed empirical pattern that relates variances to means in sets of non-negative measurements via an approximate power function, which has found application to human mortality. This study adds to this research by showing that Taylor’s Law leads to a model that reasonably describes the relationship between life expectancy at birth (e0, which also is equal to mean age at death in a life table) and variance at age of death in seven World Bank regional life tables measured at two points in time, 1970 and 2000. Using as a benchmark a non-random sample of four Japanese female life tables covering the period from 1950 to 2004, the study finds that the simple linear model provides reasonably accurate estimates of variance in age at death in a life table from e0, where the latter range from 60.9 to 85.59 years. Employing 2017 life tables from the Human Mortality Database, the simple linear model is used to provide estimates of variance at age in death for six countries, three of which have high e0 values and three of which have lower e0 values. The paper provides a substantive interpretation of Taylor’s Law relative to e0 and concludes by arguing that reasonably accurate estimates of variance in age at death in a period life table can be calculated using this approach, which also can be used where e0 itself is estimated rather than generated through the construction of a life table, a useful feature of the model.

Keywords: empirical pattern, mean age at death in a life table, mean age of a stationary population, stationary population

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Authors: Shahriar Shahbazpanahi, Mohammad Hemen Jannaty, Alaleh Kamgar

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Shear strengthening can be carried out in concrete structures by external fibre reinforced polymer (FRP). In the present investigation, a new fracture mechanics model is developed to model side face of strengthened concrete beam by external FRP. Discrete crack is simulated by a spring element with softening behavior ahead of the crack tip to model the cohesive zone in concrete. A truss element is used, parallel to the spring element, to simulate the energy dissipation rate by the FRP. The strain energy release rate is calculated directly by using a virtual crack closure technique and then, the crack propagation criterion is presented. The results are found acceptable when compared to previous experimental results and ABAQUS software data. It is observed that the length of the fracture process zone (FPZ) increases with the application of FRP in side face at the same load in comparison with that of the control beam.

Keywords: FPZ, fracture, FRP, shear

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Authors: Aluisius Pratono, Deddy Marciano, Suyanto Suyanto

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The emerging model of community development social enterprise is one of the social enterprise models. However, a precise view of the community development enterprise is still lacking. Hence, this study was aimed at deepening the concept of the community development social enterprise model at the place management and development context. Multiple case studies in Indonesia context were observed to explore the typical criteria of the community development enterprise model in place-making practices. The research paradigm used interpretative approach, which involves dialectic process between the researchers and research participants. This study highlights some principles in the community-development enterprise, which cover an entrepreneurial dimension, social goals, participatory governance, and co-management. The result makes a contribution to conceptual literature occurs at the criteria of social enterprises by highlighting the typology of community development enterprise.

Keywords: community development enterprise, social purposes, economic project, participatory governance

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Authors: Minhyuk Heo, Jihwan Yun, Seonghun Park

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It has been reported that intervertebral fusion surgery, which removes most of the ligaments and muscles of the spine, increases the degenerative disease in adjacent spinal segments. Therefore, it is required to develop a lumbar interspinous process fixation device that minimizes the risks and side effects from the surgery. The objective of the current study is to design an interspinous process fixation device with simple structures in order to minimize soft tissue removal and operation time during intervertebral fusion surgery. For the design concepts of a lumbar fixation device, the principle of the ratchet was first applied on the joining parts of the device in order to shorten the operation time. The coil spring structure was selected for connecting parts between the spinous processes so that a normal range of motion in spinal segments is preserved and degenerative spinal diseases are not developed in the adjacent spinal segments. The stiffness of the spring was determined not to interrupt the motion of a lumbar spine. The designed value of the spring stiffness allows the upper part of the spring to move ~10° which is higher than the range of flexion and extension for normal lumbar spine (6°-8°), when a moment of 10Nm is applied on the upper face of L1. A finite element (FE) model composed of L1 to L5 lumbar spines was generated to verify the mechanical integrity and the dynamic stability of the designed lumbar fixation device and to further optimize the lumbar fixation device. The FE model generated above produced the same pressure value on intervertebral disc and dynamic behavior as the normal intact model reported in the literature. The consistent results from this comparison validates the accuracy in the modeling of the current FE model. Currently, we are trying to generate an abnormal model with defects in one or more components of the normal FE model above. Then, the mechanical integrity and the dynamic stability of the designed lumbar fixation device will be analyzed after being installed in the abnormal model and then the lumbar fixation device will be further optimized.

Keywords: lumbar interspinous process fixation device, finite element method, lumbar spine, kinematics

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Authors: Sharif Abdelghany

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Polymeric nanoparticles have been widely investigated as a controlled release drug delivery platform for the treatment of tuberculosis (TB). These nanoparticles were also readily internalised into macrophages, leading to high intracellular drug concentration. In this study two anti-TB drugs, amikacin and moxifloxacin were encapsulated into PLGA nanoparticles. The novelty of this work appears in: (1) the efficient encapsulation of two hydrophilic second-line anti-TB drugs, and (2) intramacrophage delivery of this synergistic combination potentially for rapid treatment of multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB). Two water-oil-water (w/o/w) emulsion strategies were employed in this study: (1) alginate coated PLGA nanoparticles, and (2) alginate entrapped PLGA nanoparticles. The average particle size and polydispersity index (PDI) of the alginate coated PLGA nanoparticles were found to be unfavourably high with values of 640 ± 32 nm and 0.63 ± 0.09, respectively. In contrast, the alginate entrapped PLGA nanoparticles were within the desirable particle size range of 282 - 315 nm and the PDI was 0.08 - 0.16, and therefore were chosen for subsequent studies. Alginate entrapped PLGA nanoparticles yielded a drug loading of over 10 µg/mg powder for amikacin, and more than 5 µg/mg for moxifloxacin and entrapment efficiencies range of approximately 25-31% for moxifloxacin and 51-59% for amikacin. To study macrophage uptake efficiency, the nanoparticles of alginate entrapped nanoparticle formulation were loaded with acridine orange as a marker, seeded to THP-1 derived macrophages and viewed under confocal microscopy. The particles were readily internalised into the macrophages and highly concentrated in the nucleus region. Furthermore, the anti-mycobacterial activity of the drug-loaded particles was evaluated using M. tuberculosis-infected macrophages, which revealed a significant reduction (4 log reduction) of viable bacterial count compared to the untreated group. In conclusion, the amikacin-moxifloxacin alginate entrapped PLGA nanoparticles are promising for further in vivo studies.

Keywords: moxifloxacin and amikacin, nanoparticles, multidrug resistant TB, PLGA

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Authors: Trung Hieu Tran, Jesse O'Hanley, Russell Fowler

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When in-wheel wireless charging technology for electric vehicles becomes mature, a need for such integrated charging stations network development is essential. In this paper, we thus investigate the optimisation problem of in-wheel wireless electric vehicle charging network design. A mixed-integer linear programming model is formulated to solve into optimality the problem. In addition, a meta-heuristic algorithm is proposed for efficiently solving large-sized instances within a reasonable computation time. A parallel computing strategy is integrated into the algorithm to speed up its computation time. Experimental results carried out on the benchmark instances show that our model and algorithm can find the optimal solutions and their potential for practical applications.

Keywords: electric vehicle, wireless charging station, mathematical programming, meta-heuristic algorithm, parallel computing

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Authors: Gysele Lima Ricci, Jose Miguel Rodriguez Anton

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Companies in the tourism sector need to achieve competitive advantages for their survival in the market. In this way, the models based on association, cooperation, complementarity, distribution, exchange and mutual assistance arise as a possibility of organizational development, taking as reference the concept of networks. Many companies seek to partner in local networks as clusters to act together and associate. The main objective of the present research is to identify the specificities of management and the practices of cooperation in the tourist destination of São Paulo - Brazil, and to propose a new management model with possible cluster of tourism. The empirical analysis was carried out in three phases. As a first phase, a research was made by the companies, associations and tourism organizations existing in São Paulo, analyzing the characteristics of their business. In the second phase, the management specificities and cooperation practice used in the tourist destination. And in the third phase, identifying the possible strengths and weaknesses that potential or potential tourist cluster could have, proposing the development of the management model of the same adapted to the needs of the companies, associations and organizations. As a main result, it has been identified that companies, associations and organizations could be looking for synergies with each other and collaborate through a Hiperred organizational structure, in which they share their knowledge, try to make the most of the collaboration and to benefit from three concepts: flexibility, learning and collaboration. Finally, it is concluded that, the proposed tourism cluster management model is viable for the development of tourism destinations because it makes it possible to strategically address agents which are responsible for public policies, as well as public and private companies and organizations in their strategies competitiveness and cooperation.

Keywords: cluster, management model, networks, tourism sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 274