Search results for: statistical distribution
8346 Modelling Sudden Deaths from Myocardial Infarction and Stroke
Authors: Y. S. Yusoff, G. Streftaris, H. R Waters
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Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.Keywords: sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease
Procedia PDF Downloads 2848345 Spatial Distribution of Certified Mental Disabilities in China
Authors: Jiayue Yang
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Based on an analysis of China's database of certified disabled persons in 2021, this study reveals several key findings. Firstly, the proportion of certified mentally disabled persons among China's certified disabled population (Certification rate 1) shows a decreasing distribution from the East to the West and from the South to the North. Secondly, the spatial distribution of the number of mentally disabled persons per 1,000 people holding certificates (certification rate 2) shows a relatively scattered pattern, with significant variations observed between cities in the eastern region. However, on an overall scale, a south-north gradient can still be observed, with higher rates in the North and lower rates in the west, while the central region demonstrates higher rates compared to the western region. The variation in the rate of mentally handicapped certificates among regions is influenced not only by traditional culture and welfare level but also exhibits a certain correlation with the level of economic development.Keywords: certified disabled persons, mentally disabled persons, spatial distribution, China
Procedia PDF Downloads 1038344 New Method for Determining the Distribution of Birefringence and Linear Dichroism in Polymer Materials Based on Polarization-Holographic Grating
Authors: Barbara Kilosanidze, George Kakauridze, Levan Nadareishvili, Yuri Mshvenieradze
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A new method for determining the distribution of birefringence and linear dichroism in optical polymer materials is presented. The method is based on the use of polarization-holographic diffraction grating that forms an orthogonal circular basis in the process of diffraction of probing laser beam on the grating. The intensities ratio of the orders of diffraction on this grating enables the value of birefringence and linear dichroism in the sample to be determined. The distribution of birefringence in the sample is determined by scanning with a circularly polarized beam with a wavelength far from the absorption band of the material. If the scanning is carried out by probing beam with the wavelength near to a maximum of the absorption band of the chromophore then the distribution of linear dichroism can be determined. An appropriate theoretical model of this method is presented. A laboratory setup was created for the proposed method. An optical scheme of the laboratory setup is presented. The results of measurement in polymer films with two-dimensional gradient distribution of birefringence and linear dichroism are discussed.Keywords: birefringence, linear dichroism, graded oriented polymers, optical polymers, optical anisotropy, polarization-holographic grating
Procedia PDF Downloads 4328343 Study on Concentration and Temperature Measurement with 760 nm Diode Laser in Combustion System Using Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy
Authors: Miyeon Yoo, Sewon Kim, Changyeop Lee
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It is important to measure the internal temperature or temperature distribution precisely in combustion system to increase energy efficiency and reduce the pollutants. Especially in case of large combustion systems such as power plant boiler and reheating furnace of steel making process, it is very difficult to measure those physical properties in detail. Tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy measurement and analysis can be attractive method to overcome the difficulty. In this paper, TDLAS methods are used to measure the oxygen concentration and temperature distribution in various experimental conditions.Keywords: tunable diode laser absorption Spectroscopy, temperature distribution, gas concentration
Procedia PDF Downloads 3848342 Analysis of Exponential Distribution under Step Stress Partially Accelerated Life Testing Plan Using Adaptive Type-I Hybrid Progressive Censoring Schemes with Competing Risks Data
Authors: Ahmadur Rahman, Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ariful Islam
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In this article, we have estimated the parameters for the failure times of units based on the sampling technique adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring under the step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk. The failure times of the units are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the distribution and tampered coefficient. Confidence interval also obtained for the parameters. A simulation study is performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation method to check the authenticity of the model and its assumptions.Keywords: adaptive type-I hybrid progressive censoring, competing risks, exponential distribution, simulation, step-stress partially accelerated life tests
Procedia PDF Downloads 3428341 Investigating Visual Statistical Learning during Aging Using the Eye-Tracking Method
Authors: Zahra Kazemi Saleh, Bénédicte Poulin-Charronnat, Annie Vinter
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This study examines the effects of aging on visual statistical learning, using eye-tracking techniques to investigate this cognitive phenomenon. Visual statistical learning is a fundamental brain function that enables the automatic and implicit recognition, processing, and internalization of environmental patterns over time. Some previous research has suggested the robustness of this learning mechanism throughout the aging process, underscoring its importance in the context of education and rehabilitation for the elderly. The study included three distinct groups of participants, including 21 young adults (Mage: 19.73), 20 young-old adults (Mage: 67.22), and 17 old-old adults (Mage: 79.34). Participants were exposed to a series of 12 arbitrary black shapes organized into 6 pairs, each with different spatial configurations and orientations (horizontal, vertical, and oblique). These pairs were not explicitly revealed to the participants, who were instructed to passively observe 144 grids presented sequentially on the screen for a total duration of 7 min. In the subsequent test phase, participants performed a two-alternative forced-choice task in which they had to identify the most familiar pair from 48 trials, each consisting of a base pair and a non-base pair. Behavioral analysis using t-tests revealed notable findings. The mean score for the first group was significantly above chance, indicating the presence of visual statistical learning. Similarly, the second group also performed significantly above chance, confirming the persistence of visual statistical learning in young-old adults. Conversely, the third group, consisting of old-old adults, showed a mean score that was not significantly above chance. This lack of statistical learning in the old-old adult group suggests a decline in this cognitive ability with age. Preliminary eye-tracking results showed a decrease in the number and duration of fixations during the exposure phase for all groups. The main difference was that older participants focused more often on empty cases than younger participants, likely due to a decline in the ability to ignore irrelevant information, resulting in a decrease in statistical learning performance.Keywords: aging, eye tracking, implicit learning, visual statistical learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 758340 A New Method Presentation for Locating Fault in Power Distribution Feeders Considering DG
Authors: Rahman Dashti, Ehsan Gord
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In this paper, an improved impedance based fault location method is proposed. In this method, online fault locating is performed using voltage and current information at the beginning of the feeder. Determining precise fault location in a short time increases reliability and efficiency of the system. The proposed method utilizes information about main component of voltage and current at the beginning of the feeder and distributed generation unit (DGU) in order to precisely locate different faults in acceptable time. To evaluate precision and accuracy of the proposed method, a 13-node is simulated and tested using MATLAB.Keywords: distribution network, fault section determination, distributed generation units, distribution protection equipment
Procedia PDF Downloads 4008339 Spatial Distribution of Heavy Metals in Khark Island-Iran Using Geographic Information System
Authors: Abbas Hani, Maryam Jassasizadeh
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The concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Ni were determined from 40 soil samples collected in surface soils of Khark Island. Geostatistic methods and GIS were used to identify heavy metal sources and their spatial pattern. Principal component analysis coupled with correlation between heavy metals showed that level of mentioned heavy metal was lower than the standard level. Then the data obtained from the soil analyzing were studied for the purposes of normal distribution. The best way of interior finding for cadmium and nickel was ordinary kriging and the best way of interpolation of lead was inverse distance weighted. The result of this study help us to understand heavy metals distribution and make decision for remediation of soil pollution.Keywords: geostatistics, ordinary kriging, heavy metals, GIS, Khark
Procedia PDF Downloads 1658338 Long-Term Resilience Performance Assessment of Dual and Singular Water Distribution Infrastructures Using a Complex Systems Approach
Authors: Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Jeanne Cole, Sybil Sharvelle, Ali Mostafavi
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Dual water distribution systems have been proposed as solutions to enhance the sustainability and resilience of urban water systems by improving performance and decreasing energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term resilience and robustness of dual water distribution systems versus singular water distribution systems under various stressors such as demand fluctuation, aging infrastructure, and funding constraints. To this end, the long-term dynamics of these infrastructure systems was captured using a simulation model that integrates institutional agency decision-making processes with physical infrastructure degradation to evaluate the long-term transformation of water infrastructure. A set of model parameters that varies for dual and singular distribution infrastructure based on the system attributes, such as pipes length and material, energy intensity, water demand, water price, average pressure and flow rate, as well as operational expenditures, were considered and input in the simulation model. Accordingly, the model was used to simulate various scenarios of demand changes, funding levels, water price growth, and renewal strategies. The long-term resilience and robustness of each distribution infrastructure were evaluated based on various performance measures including network average condition, break frequency, network leakage, and energy use. An ecologically-based resilience approach was used to examine regime shifts and tipping points in the long-term performance of the systems under different stressors. Also, Classification and Regression Tree analysis was adopted to assess the robustness of each system under various scenarios. Using data from the City of Fort Collins, the long-term resilience and robustness of the dual and singular water distribution systems were evaluated over a 100-year analysis horizon for various scenarios. The results of the analysis enabled: (i) comparison between dual and singular water distribution systems in terms of long-term performance, resilience, and robustness; (ii) identification of renewal strategies and decision factors that enhance the long-term resiliency and robustness of dual and singular water distribution systems under different stressors.Keywords: complex systems, dual water distribution systems, long-term resilience performance, multi-agent modeling, sustainable and resilient water systems
Procedia PDF Downloads 2918337 Employer Learning, Statistical Discrimination and University Prestige
Authors: Paola Bordon, Breno Braga
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This paper investigates whether firms use university prestige to statistically discriminate among college graduates. The test is based on the employer learning literature which suggests that if firms use a characteristic for statistical discrimination, this variable should become less important for earnings as a worker gains labor market experience. In this framework, we use a regression discontinuity design to estimate a 19% wage premium for recent graduates of two of the most selective universities in Chile. However, we find that this premium decreases by 3 percentage points per year of labor market experience. These results suggest that employers use college selectivity as a signal of workers' quality when they leave school. However, as workers reveal their productivity throughout their careers, they become rewarded based on their true quality rather than the prestige of their college.Keywords: employer learning, statistical discrimination, college returns, college selectivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 5788336 The Fit of the Partial Pair Distribution Functions of BaMnFeF7 Fluoride Glass Using the Buckingham Potential by the Hybrid RMC Simulation
Authors: Sidi Mohamed Mesli, Mohamed Habchi, Arslane Boudghene Stambouli, Rafik Benallal
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The BaMnMF7 (M=Fe,V, transition metal fluoride glass, assuming isomorphous replacement) have been structurally studied through the simultaneous simulation of their neutron diffraction patterns by reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) and by the Hybrid Reverse Monte Carlo (HRMC) analysis. This last is applied to remedy the problem of the artificial satellite peaks that appear in the partial pair distribution functions (PDFs) by the RMC simulation. The HRMC simulation is an extension of the RMC algorithm, which introduces an energy penalty term (potential) in acceptance criteria. The idea of this work is to apply the Buckingham potential at the title glass by ignoring the van der Waals terms, in order to make a fit of the partial pair distribution functions and give the most possible realistic features. When displaying the partial PDFs, we suggest that the Buckingham potential is useful to describe average correlations especially in similar interactions.Keywords: fluoride glasses, RMC simulation, hybrid RMC simulation, Buckingham potential, partial pair distribution functions
Procedia PDF Downloads 5028335 Study on the Layout of 15-Minute Community-Life Circle in the State of “Community Segregation” Based on Poi: Shengwei Community and Other Two Communities in Chongqing
Authors: Siyuan Cai
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This paper takes community segregation during major infectious diseases as the background, based on the physiological needs and safety needs of citizens during home segregation, and based on the selection of convenient facilities and medical facilities as the main research objects. Based on the POI data of public facilities in Chongqing, the spatial distribution characteristics of the convenience and medical facilities in the 15-minute living circle centered on three neighborhoods in Shapingba, namely Shengwei Community, Anju Commmunity and Fengtian Garden Community, were explored by means of GIS spatial analysis. The results show that the spatial distribution of convenience and medical facilities in this area has significant clustering characteristics, with a point-like distribution pattern of "dense in the west and sparse in the east", and a grouped and multi-polar spatial structure. The spatial structure is multi-polar and has an obvious tendency to the intersections and residential areas with dense pedestrian flow. This study provides a preliminary exploration of the distribution of medical and convenience facilities within the 15-minute living circle of a segregated community, which makes up for the lack of spatial research in this area.Keywords: ArcGIS, community segregation, convenient facilities; distribution pattern, medical facilities, POI, 15-minute community life circle
Procedia PDF Downloads 1198334 Proficient Estimation Procedure for a Rare Sensitive Attribute Using Poisson Distribution
Authors: S. Suman, G. N. Singh
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The present manuscript addresses the estimation procedure of population parameter using Poisson probability distribution when characteristic under study possesses a rare sensitive attribute. The generalized form of unrelated randomized response model is suggested in order to acquire the truthful responses from respondents. The resultant estimators have been proposed for two situations when the information on an unrelated rare non-sensitive characteristic is known as well as unknown. The properties of the proposed estimators are derived, and the measure of confidentiality of respondent is also suggested for respondents. Empirical studies are carried out in the support of discussed theory.Keywords: Poisson distribution, randomized response model, rare sensitive attribute, non-sensitive attribute
Procedia PDF Downloads 2668333 Secure Image Encryption via Enhanced Fractional Order Chaotic Map
Authors: Ismail Haddad, Djamel Herbadji, Aissa Belmeguenai, Selma Boumerdassi
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in this paper, we provide a novel approach for image encryption that employs the Fibonacci matrix and an enhanced fractional order chaotic map. The enhanced map overcomes the drawbacks of the classical map, especially the limited chaotic range and non-uniform distribution of chaotic sequences, resulting in a larger encryption key space. As a result, this strategy improves the encryption system's security. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed algorithm effectively encrypts grayscale images with exceptional efficiency. Furthermore, our technique is resistant to a wide range of potential attacks, including statistical and entropy attacks.Keywords: image encryption, logistic map, fibonacci matrix, grayscale images
Procedia PDF Downloads 3158332 Automated Distribution System Management: Substation Remote Diagnostic and Operation Solution for Obafemi Awolowo University
Authors: Aderonke Oluseun Akinwumi, Olusola A. Komolaf
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This paper gives information about the wide array of challenges facing both the electric utilities and consumers in the distribution system in developing countries, using Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife Nigeria as a case study. It also proffers cost-effective solution through remote monitoring, diagnostic and operation of distribution networks without compromising the system reliability. As utilities move from manned and unintelligent networks to completely unmanned smart grids, switching activities at substations and feeders will be managed and controlled remotely by dedicated systems hence this design. The Substation Remote Diagnostic and Operation Solution (sRDOs) would remotely monitor the load on Medium Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) feeders as well as distribution transformers and allow the utility disconnect non-paying customers with absolutely no extra resource deployment and without interrupting supply to paying customers. The aftermath of the implementation of this design improved the lifetime of key distribution infrastructure by automatically isolating feeders during overload conditions and more importantly erring consumers. This increased the ratio of revenue generated on electricity bills to total network load.Keywords: electric utility, consumers, remote monitoring, diagnostic, system reliability, manned and unintelligent networks, unmanned smart grids, switching activities, medium voltage, low voltage, distribution transformer
Procedia PDF Downloads 1308331 Hysteresis Behavior and Microstructure in Nanostructured Alloys Cu-Fe and Cu-Fe-Co
Authors: Laslouni Warda, M. Azzaz
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The intermetallic-based on transition metal compounds present interesting magnetic properties for the technological applications (permanent magnets, magnetic recording…). Cu70 Fe18Co12 and Cu70 Fe30 nanostructured with crystallite size vary from 10 a 12 nanometers have been developed by a mechanical milling method. For Cu-Fe samples, the iron and copper distribution was clear. The distribution showed a homogeneous distribution of iron and copper in a Cu-Fe obtained after 36 h milling. The structural properties have been performed with X-ray diffraction. With increasing milling times, Fe and Co diffuse into the Cu matrix, which accelerates the formation of the magnetic nanostructure Cu- Fe-Co and Cu-Fe alloys. The magnetic behavior is investigated using Vibrating Sample Magnetometer (VSM). The two alloys nanocrystals possess ferromagnetic character at room temperatureKeywords: Cu-Fe-Co, Cu-Fe, nanocrystals, SEM, hysteresis loops, VSM, anisotropy theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 3328330 Impact of PV Distributed Generation on Loop Distribution Network at Saudi Electricity Company Substation in Riyadh City
Authors: Mohammed Alruwaili
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Nowadays, renewable energy resources are playing an important role in replacing traditional energy resources such as fossil fuels by integrating solar energy with conventional energy. Concerns about the environment led to an intensive search for a renewable energy source. The Rapid growth of distributed energy resources will have prompted increasing interest in the integrated distributing network in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia next few years, especially after the adoption of new laws and regulations in this regard. Photovoltaic energy is one of the promising renewable energy sources that has grown rapidly worldwide in the past few years and can be used to produce electrical energy through the photovoltaic process. The main objective of the research is to study the impact of PV in distribution networks based on real data and details. In this research, site survey and computer simulation will be dealt with using the well-known computer program software ETAB to simulate the input of electrical distribution lines with other variable inputs such as the levels of solar radiation and the field study that represent the prevailing conditions and conditions in Diriah, Riyadh region, Saudi Arabia. In addition, the impact of adding distributed generation units (DGs) to the distribution network, including solar photovoltaic (PV), will be studied and assessed for the impact of adding different power capacities. The result has been achieved with less power loss in the loop distribution network from the current condition by more than 69% increase in network power loss. However, the studied network contains 78 buses. It is hoped from this research that the efficiency, performance, quality and reliability by having an enhancement in power loss and voltage profile of the distribution networks in Riyadh City. Simulation results prove that the applied method can illustrate the positive impact of PV in loop distribution generation.Keywords: renewable energy, smart grid, efficiency, distribution network
Procedia PDF Downloads 1408329 Seismic Performance of RC Frames Equipped with Friction Panels Under Different Slip Load Distributions
Authors: Neda Nabid, Iman Hajirasouliha, Sanaz Shirinbar
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One of the most challenging issues in earthquake engineering is to find effective ways to reduce earthquake forces and damage to structural and non-structural elements under strong earthquakes. While friction dampers are the most efficient systems to improve the seismic performance of substandard structures, their optimum design is a challenging task. This research aims to find more appropriate slip load distribution pattern for efficient design of friction panels. Non-linear dynamic analyses are performed on 3, 5, 10, 15, and 20-story RC frame using Drain-2dx software to find the appropriate range of slip loads and investigate the effects of different distribution patterns (cantilever, uniform, triangle, and reverse triangle) under six different earthquake records. The results indicate that using triangle load distribution can significantly increase the energy dissipation capacity of the frame and reduce the maximum inter-storey drift, and roof displacement.Keywords: friction panels, slip load, distribution patterns, RC frames, energy dissipation
Procedia PDF Downloads 4328328 Statistical Manufacturing Cell/Process Qualification Sample Size Optimization
Authors: Angad Arora
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In production operations/manufacturing, a cell or line is typically a bunch of similar machines (computer numerical control (CNCs), advanced cutting, 3D printing or special purpose machines. For qualifying a typical manufacturing line /cell / new process, Ideally, we need a sample of parts that can be flown through the process and then we make a judgment on the health of the line/cell. However, with huge volumes and mass production scope, such as in the mobile phone industry, for example, the actual cells or lines can go in thousands and to qualify each one of them with statistical confidence means utilizing samples that are very large and eventually add to product /manufacturing cost + huge waste if the parts are not intended to be customer shipped. To solve this, we come up with 2 steps statistical approach. We start with a small sample size and then objectively evaluate whether the process needs additional samples or not. For example, if a process is producing bad parts and we saw those samples early, then there is a high chance that the process will not meet the desired yield and there is no point in keeping adding more samples. We used this hypothesis and came up with 2 steps binomial testing approach. Further, we also prove through results that we can achieve an 18-25% reduction in samples while keeping the same statistical confidence.Keywords: statistics, data science, manufacturing process qualification, production planning
Procedia PDF Downloads 928327 An Approach Based on Statistics and Multi-Resolution Representation to Classify Mammograms
Authors: Nebi Gedik
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One of the significant and continual public health problems in the world is breast cancer. Early detection is very important to fight the disease, and mammography has been one of the most common and reliable methods to detect the disease in the early stages. However, it is a difficult task, and computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems are needed to assist radiologists in providing both accurate and uniform evaluation for mass in mammograms. In this study, a multiresolution statistical method to classify mammograms as normal and abnormal in digitized mammograms is used to construct a CAD system. The mammogram images are represented by wave atom transform, and this representation is made by certain groups of coefficients, independently. The CAD system is designed by calculating some statistical features using each group of coefficients. The classification is performed by using support vector machine (SVM).Keywords: wave atom transform, statistical features, multi-resolution representation, mammogram
Procedia PDF Downloads 2228326 The Metacognition Levels of Students: A Research School of Physical Education and Sports at Anadolu University
Authors: Dilek Yalız Solmaz
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Meta-cognition is an important factor for educating conscious individuals who are aware of their cognitive processes. With this respect, the purposes of this article is to find out the perceived metacognition level of Physical Education and Sports School students at Anadolu University and to identify whether metacognition levels display significant differences in terms of various variables. 416 Anadolu University Physical Education and Sports School students were formed the research universe. "The Meta-Cognitions Questionnaire (MCQ-30)" developed by Cartwright-Hatton and Wells and later developed the 30-item short form (MCQ-30) was used. The MCQ-30 which was adapted into Turkish by Tosun and Irak is a four-point agreement scale. In the data analysis, arithmethic mean, standard deviation, t-test and ANOVA were used. There is no statistical difference between mean scores of uncontrollableness and danger, cognitive awareness, cognitive confidence and the positive beliefs of girls and boys students. There is a statistical difference between mean scores of the need to control thinking. There is no statistical difference according to departments of students between mean scores of uncontrollableness and danger, cognitive awareness, cognitive confidence, need to control thinking and the positive beliefs. There is no statistical difference according to grade level of students between mean scores of the positive beliefs, cognitive confidence and need to control thinking. There is a statistical difference between mean scores of uncontrollableness and danger and cognitive awareness.Keywords: meta cognition, physical education, sports school students, thinking
Procedia PDF Downloads 3828325 Direct Translation vs. Pivot Language Translation for Persian-Spanish Low-Resourced Statistical Machine Translation System
Authors: Benyamin Ahmadnia, Javier Serrano
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In this paper we compare two different approaches for translating from Persian to Spanish, as a language pair with scarce parallel corpus. The first approach involves direct transfer using an statistical machine translation system, which is available for this language pair. The second approach involves translation through English, as a pivot language, which has more translation resources and more advanced translation systems available. The results show that, it is possible to achieve better translation quality using English as a pivot language in either approach outperforms direct translation from Persian to Spanish. Our best result is the pivot system which scores higher than direct translation by (1.12) BLEU points.Keywords: statistical machine translation, direct translation approach, pivot language translation approach, parallel corpus
Procedia PDF Downloads 4848324 An Empirical Study of the Best Fitting Probability Distributions for Stock Returns Modeling
Authors: Jayanta Pokharel, Gokarna Aryal, Netra Kanaal, Chris Tsokos
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Investment in stocks and shares aims to seek potential gains while weighing the risk of future needs, such as retirement, children's education etc. Analysis of the behavior of the stock market returns and making prediction is important for investors to mitigate risk on investment. Historically, the normal variance models have been used to describe the behavior of stock market returns. However, the returns of the financial assets are actually skewed with higher kurtosis, heavier tails, and a higher center than the normal distribution. The Laplace distribution and its family are natural candidates for modeling stock returns. The Variance-Gamma (VG) distribution is the most sought-after distributions for modeling asset returns and has been extensively discussed in financial literatures. In this paper, it explore the other Laplace family, such as Asymmetric Laplace, Skewed Laplace, Kumaraswamy Laplace (KS) together with Variance-Gamma to model the weekly returns of the S&P 500 Index and it's eleven business sector indices. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the parameters of the distributions and our empirical inquiry shows that the Kumaraswamy Laplace distribution performs much better for stock returns modeling among the choice of distributions used in this study and in practice, KS can be used as a strong alternative to VG distribution.Keywords: stock returns, variance-gamma, kumaraswamy laplace, maximum likelihood
Procedia PDF Downloads 698323 The Influence of Beta Shape Parameters in Project Planning
Authors: Αlexios Kotsakis, Stefanos Katsavounis, Dimitra Alexiou
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Networks can be utilized to represent project planning problems, using nodes for activities and arcs to indicate precedence relationship between them. For fixed activity duration, a simple algorithm calculates the amount of time required to complete a project, followed by the activities that comprise the critical path. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) generalizes the above model by incorporating uncertainty, allowing activity durations to be random variables, producing nevertheless a relatively crude solution in planning problems. In this paper, based on the findings of the relevant literature, which strongly suggests that a Beta distribution can be employed to model earthmoving activities, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate the project completion time distribution and measure the influence of skewness, an element inherent in activities of modern technical projects. We also extract the activity criticality index, with an ultimate goal to produce more accurate planning estimations.Keywords: beta distribution, PERT, Monte Carlo simulation, skewness, project completion time distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 1488322 Research on Axial End Flux Leakage and Detent Force of Transverse Flux PM Linear Machine
Authors: W. R. Li, J. K. Xia, R. Q. Peng, Z. Y. Guo, L. Jiang
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According to 3D magnetic circuit of the transverse flux PM linear machine, distribution law is presented, and analytical expression of axial end flux leakage is derived using numerical method. Maxwell stress tensor is used to solve detent force of mover. A 3D finite element model of the transverse flux PM machine is built to analyze the flux distribution and detent force. Experimental results of the prototype verified the validity of axial end flux leakage and detent force theoretical derivation, the research on axial end flux leakage and detent force provides a valuable reference to other types of linear machine.Keywords: axial end flux leakage, detent force, flux distribution, transverse flux PM linear machine
Procedia PDF Downloads 4448321 Lifetime Assessment for Test Strips of POCT Device through Accelerated Degradation Test
Authors: Jinyoung Choi, Sunmook Lee
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In general, single parameter, i.e. temperature, as an accelerating parameter is used to assess the accelerated stability of Point-of-Care Testing (POCT) diagnostic devices. However, humidity also plays an important role in deteriorating the strip performance since major components of test strips are proteins such as enzymes. 4 different Temp./Humi. Conditions were used to assess the lifetime of strips. Degradation of test strips were studied through the accelerated stability test and the lifetime was assessed using commercial POCT products. The life distribution of strips, which were obtained by monitoring the failure time of test strip under each stress condition, revealed that the weibull distribution was the most proper distribution describing the life distribution of strips used in the present study. Equal shape parameters were calculated to be 0.9395 and 0.9132 for low and high concentrations, respectively. The lifetime prediction was made by adopting Peck Eq. Model for Stress-Life relationship, and the B10 life was calculated to be 70.09 and 46.65 hrs for low and high concentrations, respectively.Keywords: accelerated degradation, diagnostic device, lifetime assessment, POCT
Procedia PDF Downloads 4148320 Optimal Capacitor Placement in Distribution Using Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm
Authors: Ali Ravangard, S. Mohammadi
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Shunt Capacitors have several uses in the electric power systems. They are utilized as sources of reactive power by connecting them in line-to-neutral. Electric utilities have also connected capacitors in series with long lines in order to reduce its impedance. This is particularly common in the transmission level, where the lines have length in several hundreds of kilometers. However, this post will generally discuss shunt capacitors. In distribution systems, shunt capacitors are used to reduce power losses, to improve voltage profile, and to increase the maximum flow through cables and transformers. This paper presents a new method to determine the optimal locations and economical sizing of fixed and/or switched shunt capacitors with a view to power losses reduction and voltage stability enhancement. For solving the problem, a new enhanced cuckoo optimization algorithm is presented.The proposed method is tested on distribution test system and the results show that the algorithm suitable for practical implementation on real systems with any size.Keywords: capacitor placement, power losses, voltage stability, radial distribution systems
Procedia PDF Downloads 3748319 Impact of Masonry Joints on Detection of Humidity Distribution in Aerated Concrete Masonry Constructions by Electric Impedance Spectrometry Measurements
Authors: Sanita Rubene, Martins Vilnitis, Juris Noviks
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Aerated concrete is a load bearing construction material, which has high heat insulation parameters. Walls can be erected from aerated concrete masonry constructions and in perfect circumstances additional heat insulation is not required. The most common problem in aerated concrete heat insulation properties is the humidity distribution throughout the cross section of the masonry elements as well as proper and conducted drying process of the aerated concrete construction because only dry aerated concrete masonry constructions can reach high heat insulation parameters. In order to monitor drying process of the masonry and detect humidity distribution throughout the cross section of aerated concrete masonry construction application of electrical impedance spectrometry is applied. Further test results and methodology of this non-destructive testing method is described in this paper.Keywords: aerated concrete, electrical impedance spectrometry, humidity distribution, non-destructive testing
Procedia PDF Downloads 3278318 Complex Network Analysis of Seismicity and Applications to Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting
Authors: Kahlil Fredrick Cui, Marissa Pastor
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Earthquakes are complex phenomena, exhibiting complex correlations in space, time, and magnitude. Recently, the concept of complex networks has been used to shed light on the statistical and dynamical characteristics of regional seismicity. In this work, we study the relationships and interactions of seismic regions in Chile, Japan, and the Philippines through weighted and directed complex network analysis. Geographical areas are digitized into cells of fixed dimensions which in turn become the nodes of the network when an earthquake has occurred therein. Nodes are linked if a correlation exists between them as determined and measured by a correlation metric. The networks are found to be scale-free, exhibiting power-law behavior in the distributions of their different centrality measures: the in- and out-degree and the in- and out-strength. The evidence is also found of preferential interaction between seismically active regions through their degree-degree correlations suggesting that seismicity is dictated by the activity of a few active regions. The importance of a seismic region to the overall seismicity is measured using a generalized centrality metric taken to be an indicator of its activity or passivity. The spatial distribution of earthquake activity indicates the areas where strong earthquakes have occurred in the past while the passivity distribution points toward the likely locations an earthquake would occur whenever another one happens elsewhere. Finally, we propose a method that would project the location of the next possible earthquake using the generalized centralities coupled with correlations calculated between the latest earthquakes and a geographical point in the future.Keywords: complex networks, correlations, earthquake, hazard assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 2128317 Analysis of the Engineering Judgement Influence on the Selection of Geotechnical Parameters Characteristic Values
Authors: K. Ivandic, F. Dodigovic, D. Stuhec, S. Strelec
Abstract:
A characteristic value of certain geotechnical parameter results from an engineering assessment. Its selection has to be based on technical principles and standards of engineering practice. It has been shown that the results of engineering assessment of different authors for the same problem and input data are significantly dispersed. A survey was conducted in which participants had to estimate the force that causes a 10 cm displacement at the top of a axially in-situ compressed pile. Fifty experts from all over the world took part in it. The lowest estimated force value was 42% and the highest was 133% of measured force resulting from a mentioned static pile load test. These extreme values result in significantly different technical solutions to the same engineering task. In case of selecting a characteristic value of a geotechnical parameter the importance of the influence of an engineering assessment can be reduced by using statistical methods. An informative annex of Eurocode 1 prescribes the method of selecting the characteristic values of material properties. This is followed by Eurocode 7 with certain specificities linked to selecting characteristic values of geotechnical parameters. The paper shows the procedure of selecting characteristic values of a geotechnical parameter by using a statistical method with different initial conditions. The aim of the paper is to quantify an engineering assessment in the example of determining a characteristic value of a specific geotechnical parameter. It is assumed that this assessment is a random variable and that its statistical features will be determined. For this purpose, a survey research was conducted among relevant experts from the field of geotechnical engineering. Conclusively, the results of the survey and the application of statistical method were compared.Keywords: characteristic values, engineering judgement, Eurocode 7, statistical methods
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