Search results for: health belief model.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 24103

Search results for: health belief model.

23773 Health Expenditure and its Place in Economy: The Case of Turkey

Authors: Ayşe Coban, Orhan Coban, Haldun Soydal, Sükrü Sürücü

Abstract:

While health is a source of prosperity for individuals, it is also one of the most important determinants of economic growth for a country. Health, by increasing the productivity of labor, contributes to economic growth. Therefore, countries should give the necessary emphasis to health services. The primary aim of this study is to analyze the changes occurring in health services in Turkey by examining the developments in the sector. In this scope, the second aim of the study is to reveal the place of health expenditures in the Turkish economy. As a result of the analysis in the dataset, in which the 1999-2013 periods is considered, it was determined that some increase in health expenditures took place and that the increase in the share of health expenditures in GDP was too small. Furthermore, analysis of the results points out that in financing health expenditures, the public sector is prominent compared to the private sector.

Keywords: health, health service, health expenditures, Turkey

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23772 Forecasting Materials Demand from Multi-Source Ordering

Authors: Hui Hsin Huang

Abstract:

The downstream manufactures will order their materials from different upstream suppliers to maintain a certain level of the demand. This paper proposes a bivariate model to portray this phenomenon of material demand. We use empirical data to estimate the parameters of model and evaluate the RMSD of model calibration. The results show that the model has better fitness.

Keywords: recency, ordering time, materials demand quantity, multi-source ordering

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23771 A Study on Assertiveness, Stigmatization, Gender Role Beliefs and Attitudes toward Seeking Professional Psychological Help among Young Adults in South East Asian

Authors: Chee Kwan Foong, Foong Mei Kei

Abstract:

This study aimed to investigate the influence of self-stigma, perceived public stigma, assertiveness and gender role beliefs on attitudes toward seeking professional psychological help. Two hundred and fifty young adults from universities in Brunei were recruited through convenience sampling to complete a survey. Individuals facing higher stigmatisation (both self-stigma and public-stigma) had less positive attitude towards seeking professional psychological help. Individuals who were more assertive had more positive attitude towards seeking professional psychological help. For males, individuals with more traditional gender role belief showed less positive attitude towards seeking professional psychological help. For female, there was no relationship between gender role beliefs and attitude towards seeking professional psychological help. Results confirmed there was a significant mediating effect between public stigma and attitude toward seeking professional psychological help. This study could guide the mental-health professionals in promoting more positive help-seeking attitude and raise the awareness about mental challenges which could assist in reducing stigmatization, and therefore, gain a deeper understanding.

Keywords: assertiveness, attitude towards seeking professional psychological help, gender role beliefs, stigmatization

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23770 Survival Analysis Based Delivery Time Estimates for Display FAB

Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

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23769 A Platform to Analyze Controllers for Solar Hot Water Systems

Authors: Aziz Ahmad, Guillermo Ramirez-Prado

Abstract:

Governments around the world encourage the use of solar water heating in residential houses due to the low maintenance requirements and efficiency of the solar collector water heating systems. The aim of this work is to study a domestic solar water heating system in a residential building to develop a model of the entire solar water heating system including flat-plate solar collector and storage tank. The proposed model is adaptable to any households and location. The model can be used to test different types of controllers and can provide efficiency as well as economic analysis. The proposed model is based on the heat and mass transfer equations along with assumptions applied in the model which can be modified for a variety of different solar water heating systems and sizes. Simulation results of the model were compared with the actual system which shows similar trends.

Keywords: solar thermal systems, solar water heating, solar collector model, hot water tank model, solar controllers

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23768 A Controlled Mathematical Model for Population Dynamics in an Infested Honeybees Colonies

Authors: Chakib Jerry, Mounir Jerry

Abstract:

In this paper, a mathematical model of infested honey bees colonies is formulated in order to investigate Colony Collapse Disorder in a honeybee colony. CCD, as it is known, is a major problem on honeybee farms because of the massive decline in colony numbers. We introduce to the model a control variable which represents forager protection. We study the controlled model to derive conditions under which the bee colony can fight off epidemic. Secondly we study the problem of minimizing prevention cost under model’s dynamics constraints.

Keywords: honey bee, disease transmission model, disease control honeybees, optimal control

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23767 Transport Emission Inventories and Medical Exposure Modeling: A Missing Link for Urban Health

Authors: Frederik Schulte, Stefan Voß

Abstract:

The adverse effects of air pollution on public health are an increasingly vital problem in planning for urban regions in many parts of the world. The issue is addressed from various angles and by distinct disciplines in research. Epidemiological studies model the relative increase of numerous diseases in response to an increment of different forms of air pollution. A significant share of air pollution in urban regions is related to transport emissions that are often measured and stored in emission inventories. Though, most approaches in transport planning, engineering, and operational design of transport activities are restricted to general emission limits for specific air pollutants and do not consider more nuanced exposure models. We conduct an extensive literature review on exposure models and emission inventories used to study the health impact of transport emissions. Furthermore, we review methods applied in both domains and use emission inventory data of transportation hubs such as ports, airports, and urban traffic for an in-depth analysis of public health impacts deploying medical exposure models. The results reveal specific urban health risks related to transport emissions that may improve urban planning for environmental health by providing insights in actual health effects instead of only referring to general emission limits.

Keywords: emission inventories, exposure models, transport emissions, urban health

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23766 Comparing the Effects of Systemic Family Intervention on End Stage Renal Disease: Families of Different Modalities

Authors: Fenni Sim

Abstract:

Background: The application of systemic family therapy approaches to community health cases have not gathered traction. In National Kidney Foundation, Singapore, the belief is that community support has great potential in helping End Stage Renal Failure (ESRF) patients manage the demands of their treatment regime, whether Hemodialysis (HD) or Peritoneal Dialysis(PD) and sustain them on the treatment. However, the current community support does not include family interventions and is largely nursing based. Although nursing support is well provided to patients, and their family members in issues related to treatment and compliance, complex family issues and dynamics arising from caregiver strain or pre-dialysis relationship strain might deter efforts in managing the challenges of the treatment. Objective: The objective of the study is to understand the potential scope of work provided by a social worker who is trained in systemic family therapy and the effects of these interventions. Methodology: 3 families on HD and 3 families on PD who have been receiving family intervention for the past 6 months would be chosen for the study. A qualitative interview would be conducted to review the effectiveness for the family. Scales such as SCORE-15, PHQ-9, and Zarit Burden were used to measure family functioning, depression, and caregiver’s burden for the families. Results: The research is still in preliminary phase. Conclusion: The study highlights the importance of family intervention for families with multiple stressors on different treatment modalities who might have different needs and challenges. Nursing support needs to be complemented with family-based support to manage complex family issues in order to achieve better health outcomes and improved family coping.

Keywords: complementing nursing support, end stage renal failure, healthcare, systemic approaches

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23765 The Validation and Reliability of the Arabic Effort-Reward Imbalance Model Questionnaire: A Cross-Sectional Study among University Students in Jordan

Authors: Mahmoud M. AbuAlSamen, Tamam El-Elimat

Abstract:

Amid the economic crisis in Jordan, the Jordanian government has opted for a knowledge economy where education is promoted as a mean for economic development. University education usually comes at the expense of study-related stress that may adversely impact the health of students. Since stress is a latent variable that is difficult to measure, a valid tool should be used in doing so. The effort-reward imbalance (ERI) is a model used as a measurement tool for occupational stress. The model was built on the notion of reciprocity, which relates ‘effort’ to ‘reward’ through the mediating ‘over-commitment’. Reciprocity assumes equilibrium between both effort and reward, where ‘high’ effort is adequately compensated with ‘high’ reward. When this equilibrium is violated (i.e., high effort with low reward), this may elicit negative emotions and stress, which have been correlated to adverse health conditions. The theory of ERI was established in many different parts of the world, and associations with chronic diseases and the health of workers were explored at length. While much of the effort-reward imbalance was investigated in work conditions, there has been a growing interest in understanding the validity of the ERI model when applied to other social settings such as schools and universities. The ERI questionnaire was developed in Arabic recently to measure ERI among high school teachers. However, little information is available on the validity of the ERI questionnaire in university students. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 833 students in Jordan to measure the validity and reliability of the ERI questionnaire in Arabic among university students. Reliability, as measured by Cronbach’s alpha of the effort, reward, and overcommitment scales, was 0.73, 0.76, and 0.69, respectively, suggesting satisfactory reliability. The factorial structure was explored using principal axis factoring. The results fitted a five-solution model where both the effort and overcommitment were uni-dimensional while the reward scale was three-dimensional with its factors, namely being ‘support’, ‘esteem’, and ‘security’. The solution explained 56% of the variance in the data. The established ERI theory was replicated with excellent validity in this study. The effort-reward ratio in university students was 1.19, which suggests a slight degree of failed reciprocity. The study also investigated the association of effort, reward, overcommitment, and ERI with participants’ demographic factors and self-reported health. ERI was found to be significantly associated with absenteeism (p < 0.0001), past history of failed courses (p=0.03), and poor academic performance (p < 0.001). Moreover, ERI was found to be associated with poor self-reported health among university students (p=0.01). In conclusion, the Arabic ERI questionnaire is reliable and valid for use in measuring effort-reward imbalance in university students in Jordan. The results of this research are important in informing higher education policy in Jordan.

Keywords: effort-reward imbalance, factor analysis, validity, self-reported health

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23764 Hospital 4.0 Maturity Assessment Model Development: Case of Moroccan Public Hospitals

Authors: T. Benazzouz, K. Auhmani

Abstract:

This paper presents a Hospital 4.0 Maturity Assessment Model based on the Industry 4.0 concepts. The self-assessment model defines current and target states of digital transformation by considering multiple aspects of a hospital and a healthcare supply chain. The developed model was validated and evaluated on real-life cases. The resulting model consisted of 5 domains: Technology, Strategy 4.0, Human resources 4.0 & Culture 4.0, Supply chain 4.0 management, and Patient journeys management. Each domain is further divided into several sub-domains, totally 34 sub-domains are identified, that reflect different facets of a hospital 4.0 mature organization.

Keywords: hospital 4.0, Industry 4.0, maturity assessment model, supply chain 4.0, patient

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23763 Marginalized Two-Part Joint Models for Generalized Gamma Family of Distributions

Authors: Mohadeseh Shojaei Shahrokhabadi, Ding-Geng (Din) Chen

Abstract:

Positive continuous outcomes with a substantial number of zero values and incomplete longitudinal follow-up are quite common in medical cost data. To jointly model semi-continuous longitudinal cost data and survival data and to provide marginalized covariate effect estimates, a marginalized two-part joint model (MTJM) has been developed for outcome variables with lognormal distributions. In this paper, we propose MTJM models for outcome variables from a generalized gamma (GG) family of distributions. The GG distribution constitutes a general family that includes approximately all of the most frequently used distributions like the Gamma, Exponential, Weibull, and Log Normal. In the proposed MTJM-GG model, the conditional mean from a conventional two-part model with a three-parameter GG distribution is parameterized to provide the marginal interpretation for regression coefficients. In addition, MTJM-gamma and MTJM-Weibull are developed as special cases of MTJM-GG. To illustrate the applicability of the MTJM-GG, we applied the model to a set of real electronic health record data recently collected in Iran, and we provided SAS code for application. The simulation results showed that when the outcome distribution is unknown or misspecified, which is usually the case in real data sets, the MTJM-GG consistently outperforms other models. The GG family of distribution facilitates estimating a model with improved fit over the MTJM-gamma, standard Weibull, or Log-Normal distributions.

Keywords: marginalized two-part model, zero-inflated, right-skewed, semi-continuous, generalized gamma

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23762 Numerical Simulations of the Transition Flow of Model Propellers for Predicting Open Water Performance

Authors: Huilan Yao, Huaixin Zhang

Abstract:

Simulations of the transition flow of model propellers are important for predicting hydrodynamic performance and studying scale effects. In this paper, the transition flow of a model propeller under different loadings are simulated using a transition model provided by STAR-CCM+, and the influence of turbulence intensity (TI) on the transition, especially friction and pressure components of propeller performance, was studied. Before that, the transition model was applied to simulate the transition flow of a flat plate and an airfoil. Predicted transitions agree well with experimental results. Then, the transition model was applied for propeller simulations in open water, and the influence of TI was studied. Under the heavy and moderate loadings, thrust and torque of the propeller predicted by the transition model (different TI) and two turbulence models are very close and agree well with measurements. However, under the light loading, only the transition model with low TI predicts the most accurate results. Above all, the friction components of propeller performance predicted by the transition model with different TI have obvious difference.

Keywords: transition flow, model propellers, hydrodynamic performance, numerical simulation

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23761 Strategic Model of Implementing E-Learning Using Funnel Model

Authors: Mohamed Jama Madar, Oso Wilis

Abstract:

E-learning is the application of information technology in the teaching and learning process. This paper presents the Funnel model as a solution for the problems of implementation of e-learning in tertiary education institutions. While existing models such as TAM, theory-based e-learning and pedagogical model have been used over time, they have generally been found to be inadequate because of their tendencies to treat materials development, instructional design, technology, delivery and governance as separate and isolated entities. Yet it is matching components that bring framework of e-learning strategic implementation. The Funnel model enhances all these into one and applies synchronously and asynchronously to e-learning implementation where the only difference is modalities. Such a model for e-learning implementation has been lacking. The proposed Funnel model avoids ad-ad-hoc approach which has made other systems unused or inefficient, and compromised educational quality. Therefore, the proposed Funnel model should help tertiary education institutions adopt and develop effective and efficient e-learning system which meets users’ requirements.

Keywords: e-learning, pedagogical, technology, strategy

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23760 Challenges of Outreach Team Leaders in Managing Ward Based Primary Health Care Outreach Teams in National Health Insurance Pilot Districts in Kwazulu-Natal

Authors: E. M. Mhlongo, E. Lutge

Abstract:

In 2010, South Africa’s National Department of Health (NDoH) launched national primary health care (PHC) initiative to strengthen health promotion, disease prevention, and early disease detection. The strategy, called Re-engineering Primary Health Care (rPHC), aims to support a preventive and health-promoting community-based PHC model by using community-based outreach teams (known in South Africa as Ward-based Primary Health Care Outreach teams or WBPHCOTs). These teams provide health education, promote healthy behaviors, assess community health needs, manage minor health problems, and support linkages to health services and health facilities. Ward based primary health care outreach teams are supervised by a professional nurse who is the outreach team leader. In South Africa, the WBPHCOTs have been established, registered, and are reporting their activities in the District Health Information System (DHIS). This study explored and described the challenges faced by outreach team leaders in supporting and supervising the WBPHCOTs. Qualitative data were obtained through interviews conducted with the outreach team leaders at a sub-district level. Thematic analysis of data was done. Findings revealed some challenges faced by team leaders in day to day execution of their duties. Issues such as staff shortages, inadequate resources to carry out health promotion activities, and lack of co-operation from team members may undermine the capacity of team leaders to support and supervise the WBPHCOTs. Many community members are under the impression that the outreach team is responsible for bringing the clinic to the community while the outreach teams do not carry any medication/treatment with them when doing home visits. The study further highlights issues around the challenges of WBPHCOTs at a household level. In conclusion, the WBPHCOTs are an important component of National Health Insurance (NHI), and in order for NHI to be optimally implemented, the issues raised in this research should be addressed with some urgency.

Keywords: community health worker, national health insurance, primary health care, ward-based primary health care outreach teams

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23759 The Grand Unified Theory of Everything as a Generalization to the Standard Model Called as the General Standard Model

Authors: Amir Deljoo

Abstract:

The endeavor to comprehend the existence have been the center of thought for human in form of different disciplines and now basically in physics as the theory of everything. Here, after a brief review of the basic frameworks of thought, and a history of thought since ancient up to present, a logical methodology is presented based on a core axiom after which a function, a proto-field and then a coordinates are explained. Afterwards a generalization to Standard Model is proposed as General Standard Model which is believed to be the base of the Unified Theory of Everything.

Keywords: general relativity, grand unified theory, quantum mechanics, standard model, theory of everything

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23758 Modeling Breathable Particulate Matter Concentrations over Mexico City Retrieved from Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery

Authors: Rodrigo T. Sepulveda-Hirose, Ana B. Carrera-Aguilar, Magnolia G. Martinez-Rivera, Pablo de J. Angeles-Salto, Carlos Herrera-Ventosa

Abstract:

In order to diminish health risks, it is of major importance to monitor air quality. However, this process is accompanied by the high costs of physical and human resources. In this context, this research is carried out with the main objective of developing a predictive model for concentrations of inhalable particles (PM10-2.5) using remote sensing. To develop the model, satellite images, mainly from Landsat 8, of the Mexico City’s Metropolitan Area were used. Using historical PM10 and PM2.5 measurements of the RAMA (Automatic Environmental Monitoring Network of Mexico City) and through the processing of the available satellite images, a preliminary model was generated in which it was possible to observe critical opportunity areas that will allow the generation of a robust model. Through the preliminary model applied to the scenes of Mexico City, three areas were identified that cause great interest due to the presumed high concentration of PM; the zones are those that present high plant density, bodies of water and soil without constructions or vegetation. To date, work continues on this line to improve the preliminary model that has been proposed. In addition, a brief analysis was made of six models, presented in articles developed in different parts of the world, this in order to visualize the optimal bands for the generation of a suitable model for Mexico City. It was found that infrared bands have helped to model in other cities, but the effectiveness that these bands could provide for the geographic and climatic conditions of Mexico City is still being evaluated.

Keywords: air quality, modeling pollution, particulate matter, remote sensing

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23757 Definition of a Computing Independent Model and Rules for Transformation Focused on the Model-View-Controller Architecture

Authors: Vanessa Matias Leite, Jandira Guenka Palma, Flávio Henrique de Oliveira

Abstract:

This paper presents a model-oriented development approach to software development in the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architectural standard. This approach aims to expose a process of extractions of information from the models, in which through rules and syntax defined in this work, assists in the design of the initial model and its future conversions. The proposed paper presents a syntax based on the natural language, according to the rules agreed in the classic grammar of the Portuguese language, added to the rules of conversions generating models that follow the norms of the Object Management Group (OMG) and the Meta-Object Facility MOF.

Keywords: BNF Syntax, model driven architecture, model-view-controller, transformation, UML

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23756 1D Velocity Model for the Gobi-Altai Region from Local Earthquakes

Authors: Dolgormaa Munkhbaatar, Munkhsaikhan Adiya, Tseedulam Khuut

Abstract:

We performed an inversion method to determine the 1D-velocity model with station corrections of the Gobi-Altai area in the southern part of Mongolia using earthquake data collected in the National Data Center during the last 10 years. In this study, the concept of the new 1D model has been employed to minimize the average RMS of a set of well-located earthquakes, recorded at permanent (between 2006 and 2016) and temporary seismic stations (between 2014 and 2016), compute solutions for the coupled hypocenter and 1D velocity model. We selected 4800 events with RMS less than 0.5 seconds and with a maximum GAP of 170 degrees and determined velocity structures. Also, we relocated all possible events located in the Gobi-Altai area using the new 1D velocity model and achieved constrained hypocentral determinations for events within this area. We concluded that the estimated new 1D velocity model is a relatively low range compared to the previous velocity model in a significant improvement intend to, and the quality of the information basis for future research center locations to determine the earthquake epicenter area with this new transmission model.

Keywords: 1D velocity model, earthquake, relocation, Velest

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23755 Fuzzy Logic Based Ventilation for Controlling Harmful Gases in Livestock Houses

Authors: Nuri Caglayan, H. Kursat Celik

Abstract:

There are many factors that influence the health and productivity of the animals in livestock production fields, including temperature, humidity, carbon dioxide (CO2), ammonia (NH3), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), physical activity and particulate matter. High NH3 concentrations reduce feed consumption and cause daily weight gain. At high concentrations, H2S causes respiratory problems and CO2 displace oxygen, which can cause suffocation or asphyxiation. Good air quality in livestock facilities can have an impact on the health and well-being of animals and humans. Air quality assessment basically depends on strictly given limits without taking into account specific local conditions between harmful gases and other meteorological factors. The stated limitations may be eliminated. using controlling systems based on neural networks and fuzzy logic. This paper describes a fuzzy logic based ventilation algorithm, which can calculate different fan speeds under pre-defined boundary conditions, for removing harmful gases from the production environment. In the paper, a fuzzy logic model has been developed based on a Mamedani’s fuzzy method. The model has been built on MATLAB software. As the result, optimum fan speeds under pre-defined boundary conditions have been presented.

Keywords: air quality, fuzzy logic model, livestock housing, fan speed

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23754 Imputing the Minimum Social Value of Public Healthcare: A General Equilibrium Model of Israel

Authors: Erez Yerushalmi, Sani Ziv

Abstract:

The rising demand for healthcare services, without a corresponding rise in public supply, led to a debate on whether to increase private healthcare provision - especially in hospital services and second-tier healthcare. Proponents for increasing private healthcare highlight gains in efficiency, while opponents its risk to social welfare. None, however, provide a measure of the social value and its impact on the economy in terms of a monetary value. In this paper, we impute a minimum social value of public healthcare that corresponds to indifference between gains in efficiency, with losses to social welfare. Our approach resembles contingent valuation methods that introduce a hypothetical market for non-commodities, but is different from them because we use numerical simulation techniques to exploit certain market failure conditions. In this paper, we develop a general equilibrium model that distinguishes between public-private healthcare services and public-private financing. Furthermore, the social value is modelled as a by product of healthcare services. The model is then calibrated to our unique health focused Social Accounting Matrix of Israel, and simulates the introduction of a hypothetical health-labour market - given that it is heavily regulated in the baseline (i.e., the true situation in Israel today). For baseline parameters, we estimate the minimum social value at around 18% public healthcare financing. The intuition is that the gain in economic welfare from improved efficiency, is offset by the loss in social welfare due to a reduction in available social value. We furthermore simulate a deregulated healthcare scenario that internalizes the imputed value of social value and searches for the optimal weight of public and private healthcare provision.

Keywords: contingent valuation method (CVM), general equilibrium model, hypothetical market, private-public healthcare, social value of public healthcare

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23753 An Elbow Biomechanical Model and Its Coefficients Adjustment

Authors: Jie Bai, Yongsheng Gao, Shengxin Wang, Jie Zhao

Abstract:

Through the establishment of the elbow biomechanical model, it can provide theoretical guide for rehabilitation therapy on the upper limb of the human body. A biomechanical model of the elbow joint can be built by the connection of muscle force model and elbow dynamics. But there are many undetermined coefficients in the model like the optimal joint angle and optimal muscle force which are usually specified as the experimental parameters of other workers. Because of the individual differences, there is a certain deviation of the final result. To this end, the RMS value of the deviation between the actual angle and calculated angle is considered. A set of coefficients which lead to the minimum RMS value will be chosen to be the optimal parameters. The direct search method and the conjugacy search method are used to get the optimal parameters, thus the model can be more accurate and mode adaptability.

Keywords: elbow biomechanical model, RMS, direct search, conjugacy search

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23752 Socio-Religious Mythology of the Igala of Central Nigeria Area

Authors: Abdullahi Musa Yusuf

Abstract:

Culture and traditions are an embodiment of every society. In Africa, people are socialized into believing that the world is full of mysteries. Mysteries that can only be explain through the interpretation of some forces which are ordinarily beyond the comprehension of Man. These forces have the power and capability of influencing the lives of the living either benevolently or malevolently. To decipher these mysteries various religious and cultural practices were evolved. This paper is therefore an attempt to explain the traditional religious belief system and the relationship existing between the forces of the living and dead among the Igala people of the Central Nigeria Region.

Keywords: culture, tradition, mythology, Nigeria

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23751 Forecasting for Financial Stock Returns Using a Quantile Function Model

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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23750 Surveying Energy Dissipation in Stepped Spillway Using Finite Element Modeling

Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah

Abstract:

Stepped spillway includes several steps from the crest to the toe. The steps of stepped spillway could cause to decrease the energy with making energy distribution in the longitude mode and also to reduce the outcome speed. The aim of this study was to stimulate the stepped spillway combined with stilling basin-step using Fluent model and the turbulent superficial flow using RNG, K-ε. The free surface of the flow was monitored by VOF model. The velocity and the depth of the flow were measured by tail water depth by the numerical model and then the dissipated energy was calculated along the spillway. The results indicated that the stilling basin-step complex may cause energy dissipation increment in the stepped spillway. Also, the numerical model was suggested as an effective method to predict the circular and complicated flows in the stepped spillways.

Keywords: stepped spillway, fluent model, VOF model, K-ε model, energy distribution

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23749 Connecting Lives Inside and Outside the Classroom: Why and How to Implement Technology in the Language Learning Classroom

Authors: Geoffrey Sinha

Abstract:

This paper is primarily addressed to teachers who stand on the threshold of bringing technology and new media into their classrooms. Technology and new media, such as smart phones and tablets have changed the face of communication in general and of language teaching more specifically. New media has widespread appeal among young people in particular, so it is in the teacher’s best interests to bring new media into their lessons. It is the author’s firm belief that technology will never replace the teacher, but it is without question that the twenty-first century teacher must employ technology and new media in some form, or run the risk of failure. The level that one chooses to incorporate new media within their class is entirely in their hands.

Keywords: new media, social media, technology, education, language learning

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23748 Monitoring Three-Dimensional Models of Tree and Forest by Using Digital Close-Range Photogrammetry

Authors: S. Y. Cicekli

Abstract:

In this study, tree-dimensional model of tree was created by using terrestrial close range photogrammetry. For this close range photos were taken. Photomodeler Pro 5 software was used for camera calibration and create three-dimensional model of trees. In first test, three-dimensional model of a tree was created, in the second test three-dimensional model of three trees were created. This study aim is creating three-dimensional model of trees and indicate the use of close-range photogrammetry in forestry. At the end of the study, three-dimensional model of tree and three trees were created. This study showed that usability of close-range photogrammetry for monitoring tree and forests three-dimensional model.

Keywords: close- range photogrammetry, forest, tree, three-dimensional model

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23747 A Mathematical-Based Formulation of EEG Fluctuations

Authors: Razi Khalafi

Abstract:

Brain is the information processing center of the human body. Stimuli in form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modeling of the EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for the modeling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: Brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, eeg signal

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23746 A Prediction Model for Dynamic Responses of Building from Earthquake Based on Evolutionary Learning

Authors: Kyu Jin Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park

Abstract:

The seismic responses-based structural health monitoring system has been performed to prevent seismic damage. Structural seismic damage of building is caused by the instantaneous stress concentration which is related with dynamic characteristic of earthquake. Meanwhile, seismic response analysis to estimate the dynamic responses of building demands significantly high computational cost. To prevent the failure of structural members from the characteristic of the earthquake and the significantly high computational cost for seismic response analysis, this paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for dynamic responses of building considering specific time length. Through the measured dynamic responses, input and output node of the ANN are formed by the length of specific time, and adopted for the training. In the model, evolutionary radial basis function neural network (ERBFNN), that radial basis function network (RBFN) is integrated with evolutionary optimization algorithm to find variables in RBF, is implemented. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through an analytical study applying responses from dynamic analysis for multi-degree of freedom system to training data in ERBFNN.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, dynamic response, artificial neural network, radial basis function network, genetic algorithm

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23745 Performance and Availability Analysis of 2N Redundancy Models

Authors: Yutae Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the performance and availability of a redundancy model. The redundancy model is a form of resilience that ensures service availability in the event of component failure. This paper considers a 2N redundancy model. In the model there are at most one active service unit and at most one standby service unit. The active one is providing the service while the standby is prepared to take over the active role when the active fails. We design our analysis model using Stochastic Reward Nets, and then evaluate the performance and availability of 2N redundancy model using Stochastic Petri Net Package (SPNP).

Keywords: availability, performance, stochastic reward net, 2N redundancy

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23744 Developing a Virtual Reality System to Assist in Anatomy Teaching and Evaluating the Effectiveness of That System

Authors: Tarek Abdelkader, Suresh Selvaraj, Prasad Iyer, Yong Mun Hin, Hajmath Begum, P. Gopalakrishnakone

Abstract:

Nowadays, more and more educational institutes, as well as students, rely on 3D anatomy programs as an important tool that helps students correlate the actual locations of anatomical structures in a 3D dimension. Lately, virtual reality (VR) is gaining more favor from the younger generations due to its higher interactive mode. As a result, using virtual reality as a gamified learning platform for anatomy became the current goal. We present a model where a Virtual Human Anatomy Program (VHAP) was developed to assist with the anatomy learning experience of students. The anatomy module has been built, mostly, from real patient CT scans. Segmentation and surface rendering were used to create the 3D model by direct segmentation of CT scans for each organ individually and exporting that model as a 3D file. After acquiring the 3D files for all needed organs, all the files were introduced into a Virtual Reality environment as a complete body anatomy model. In this ongoing experiment, students from different Allied Health orientations are testing the VHAP. Specifically, the cardiovascular system has been selected as the focus system of study since all of our students finished learning about it in the 1st trimester. The initial results suggest that the VHAP system is adding value to the learning process of our students, encouraging them to get more involved and to ask more questions. Involved students comments show that they are excited about the VHAP system with comments about its interactivity as well as the ability to use it solo as a self-learning aid in combination with the lectures. Some students also experienced minor side effects like dizziness.

Keywords: 3D construction, health sciences, teaching pedagogy, virtual reality

Procedia PDF Downloads 141