Search results for: generalized additive model
17413 Modeling Waiting and Service Time for Patients: A Case Study of Matawale Health Centre, Zomba, Malawi
Authors: Moses Aron, Elias Mwakilama, Jimmy Namangale
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Spending more time on long queues for a basic service remains a common challenge to most developing countries, including Malawi. For health sector in particular, Out-Patient Department (OPD) experiences long queues. This puts the lives of patients at risk. However, using queuing analysis to under the nature of the problems and efficiency of service systems, such problems can be abated. Based on a kind of service, literature proposes different possible queuing models. However, unlike using generalized assumed models proposed by literature, use of real time case study data can help in deeper understanding the particular problem model and how such a model can vary from one day to the other and also from each case to another. As such, this study uses data obtained from one urban HC for BP, Pediatric and General OPD cases to investigate an average queuing time for patients within the system. It seeks to highlight the proper queuing model by investigating the kind of distributions functions over patient’s arrival time, inter-arrival time, waiting time and service time. Comparable with the standard set values by WHO, the study found that patients at this HC spend more waiting times than service times. On model investigation, different days presented different models ranging from an assumed M/M/1, M/M/2 to M/Er/2. As such, through sensitivity analysis, in general, a commonly assumed M/M/1 model failed to fit the data but rather an M/Er/2 demonstrated to fit well. An M/Er/3 model seemed to be good in terms of measuring resource utilization, proposing a need to increase medical personnel at this HC. However, an M/Er/4 showed to cause more idleness of human resources.Keywords: health care, out-patient department, queuing model, sensitivity analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 43517412 Analysis of Reflection of Elastic Waves in Three Dimensional Model Comprised with Viscoelastic Anisotropic Medium
Authors: Amares Chattopadhyay, Akanksha Srivastava
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A unified approach to study the reflection of a plane wave in three-dimensional model comprised of the triclinic viscoelastic medium. The phase velocities of reflected qP, qSV and qSH wave have been calculated for the concerned medium by using the eigenvalue approach. The generalized method has been implemented to compute the complex form of amplitude ratios. Further, we discussed the nature of reflection coefficients of qP, qSV and qSH wave. The viscoelastic parameter, polar angle and azimuthal angle are found to be strongly influenced by amplitude ratios. The research article is particularly focused to study the effect of viscoelasticity associated with highly anisotropic media which exhibits the notable information about the reflection coefficients of qP, qSV, and qSH wave. The outcomes may further useful to the better exploration of all types of hydrocarbon reservoir and advancement in the field of reflection seismology.Keywords: amplitude ratios, three dimensional, triclinic, viscoelastic
Procedia PDF Downloads 23017411 Structural Characterization of the 3D Printed Silicon Carbon/Carbon Fibers Nanocomposites
Authors: Saja M. Nabat Al-Ajrash, Charles Browning, Rose Eckerle, Li Cao
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A process that utilizes a combination of additive manufacturing (AM), a preceramic polymer, and a chopped carbon fiber precursorto fabricate Silicon Carbon/ Carbon fibers (SiC/C) composites have been developed. The study has shown a promising, cost-effective, and efficient route to fabricate complex SiC/C composites using additive manufacturing. A key part of this effort was the mapping of the material’s microstructure through the thickness of the composite. Microstructural features in the pyrolyzed composites through the successive AM layers, such as defects, crystal size and their distribution, interatomic spacing, chemical bonds, were investigated using high-resolution scanning and transmission electron microscopy. As a result, the microstructure developed in SiC/C composites after printing, cure, and pyrolysis has been successfully mapped through the thickness of the derived composites. Dense and nearly defect-free parts after polymer to ceramic conversion were observed. The ceramic matrix composite displayed three coexisting phases, including silicon carbide, silicon oxycarbide, and turbostratic carbon. Lattice fringes imaging and X-Ray Diffraction analysis showed well-defined SiC and turbostratic carbon features. The cross-sectional mapping of the printed-then-pyrolyzed structures has confirmed consistent structural and chemical features within the internal layers of the AM parts. Noteworthy, however, is that a crust-like area with high crystallinity has been observed in the first and last external layers. Not only do these crust-like regions have structural characteristics distinct from the internal layers, but they also have elemental distributions different than the internal layers.Keywords: SiC, preceramic polymer, additive manufacturing, ceramic
Procedia PDF Downloads 7817410 Forecasting Container Throughput: Using Aggregate or Terminal-Specific Data?
Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka
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We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput
Procedia PDF Downloads 50417409 Enhanced Extra Trees Classifier for Epileptic Seizure Prediction
Authors: Maurice Ntahobari, Levin Kuhlmann, Mario Boley, Zhinoos Razavi Hesabi
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For machine learning based epileptic seizure prediction, it is important for the model to be implemented in small implantable or wearable devices that can be used to monitor epilepsy patients; however, current state-of-the-art methods are complex and computationally intensive. We use Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) to find relevant intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) features and improve the computational efficiency of a state-of-the-art seizure prediction method based on the extra trees classifier while maintaining prediction performance. Results for a small contest dataset and a much larger dataset with continuous recordings of up to 3 years per patient from 15 patients yield better than chance prediction performance (p < 0.004). Moreover, while the performance of the SHAP-based model is comparable to that of the benchmark, the overall training and prediction time of the model has been reduced by a factor of 1.83. It can also be noted that the feature called zero crossing value is the best EEG feature for seizure prediction. These results suggest state-of-the-art seizure prediction performance can be achieved using efficient methods based on optimal feature selection.Keywords: machine learning, seizure prediction, extra tree classifier, SHAP, epilepsy
Procedia PDF Downloads 11217408 Correlations in the Ising Kagome Lattice
Authors: Antonio Aguilar Aguilar, Eliezer Braun Guitler
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Using a previously developed procedure and with the aid of algebraic software, a two-dimensional generalized Ising model with a 4×2 unitary cell (UC), we obtain a Kagome Lattice with twelve different spin-spin values of interaction, in order to determine the partition function per spin L(T). From the partition function we can study the magnetic behavior of the system. Because of the competition phenomenon between spins, a very complex behavior among them in a variety of magnetic states can be observed.Keywords: correlations, Ising, Kagome, exact functions
Procedia PDF Downloads 36817407 The Effect of Corporate Governance to Islamic Banking Performance Using Maqasid Index Approach in Indonesia
Authors: Audia Syafa'atur Rahman, Rozali Haron
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The practices of Islamic banking are more attuned to the goals of profit maximization rather than obtaining ethical profit. Ethical profit is obtained from interest-free earnings and to give an impact which benefits to the growth of society and economy. Good corporate governance practices are needed to assure the sustainability of Islamic banks in order to achieve Maqasid Shariah with the main purpose of boosting the well-being of people. The Maqasid Shariah performance measurement is used to measure the duties and responsibilities expected to be performed by Islamic banks. It covers not only unification dimension like financial measurement, but also many dimensions covered to reflect the main purpose of Islamic banks. The implementation of good corporate governance is essential because it covers the interests of the stakeholders and facilitates effective monitoring to encourage Islamic banks to utilize resources more efficiently in order to achieve the Maqasid Shariah. This study aims to provide the empirical evidence on the Maqasid performance of Islamic banks in relation to the Maqasid performance evaluation model, to examine the influence of SSB characteristics and board structures to Islamic Banks performance as measured by Maqasid performance evaluation model. By employing the simple additive weighting method, Maqasid index for all the Islamic Banks in Indonesia within 2012 to 2016 ranged from above 11% to 28%. The Maqasid Syariah performance index where results reached above 20% are obtained by Islamic Banks such as Bank Muamalat Indonesia, Bank Panin Syariah, and Bank BRI Syariah. The consistent achievement above 23% is achieved by BMI. Other Islamic Banks such as Bank Victoria Syariah, Bank Jabar Banten Syariah, Bank BNI Syariah, Bank Mega Syariah, BCA Syariah, and Maybank Syariah Indonesia shows a fluctuating value of the Maqasid performance index every year. The impact of SSB characteristics and board structures are tested using random-effects generalized least square. The findings indicate that SSB characteristics (Shariah Supervisory Board size, Shariah Supervisory Board cross membership, Shariah Supervisory Board Education, and Shariah Supervisory Board reputation) and board structures (Board size and Board independence) have an essential role in improving the performance of Islamic Banks. The findings denote Shariah Supervisory Board with smaller size, higher portion of Shariah Supervisory Board cross membership; lesser Shariah Supervisory Board holds doctorate degree, lesser reputable scholar, more members on board of directors, and less independence non-executive directors will enhance the performance of Islamic Banks.Keywords: Maqasid Shariah, corporate governance, Islamic banks, Shariah supervisory board
Procedia PDF Downloads 24017406 3D Printing Perceptual Models of Preference Using a Fuzzy Extreme Learning Machine Approach
Authors: Xinyi Le
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In this paper, 3D printing orientations were determined through our perceptual model. Some FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling) 3D printers, which are widely used in universities and industries, often require support structures during the additive manufacturing. After removing the residual material, some surface artifacts remain at the contact points. These artifacts will damage the function and visual effect of the model. To prevent the impact of these artifacts, we present a fuzzy extreme learning machine approach to find printing directions that avoid placing supports in perceptually significant regions. The proposed approach is able to solve the evaluation problem by combing both the subjective knowledge and objective information. Our method combines the advantages of fuzzy theory, auto-encoders, and extreme learning machine. Fuzzy set theory is applied for dealing with subjective preference information, and auto-encoder step is used to extract good features without supervised labels before extreme learning machine. An extreme learning machine method is then developed successfully for training and learning perceptual models. The performance of this perceptual model will be demonstrated on both natural and man-made objects. It is a good human-computer interaction practice which draws from supporting knowledge on both the machine side and the human side.Keywords: 3d printing, perceptual model, fuzzy evaluation, data-driven approach
Procedia PDF Downloads 43817405 Applying Serious Game Design Frameworks to Existing Games for Integration of Custom Learning Objectives
Authors: Jonathan D. Moore, Mark G. Reith, David S. Long
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Serious games (SGs) have been shown to be an effective teaching tool in many contexts. Because of the success of SGs, several design frameworks have been created to expedite the process of making original serious games to teach specific learning objectives (LOs). Even with these frameworks, the time required to create a custom SG from conception to implementation can range from months to years. Furthermore, it is even more difficult to design a game framework that allows an instructor to create customized game variants supporting multiple LOs within the same field. This paper proposes a refactoring methodology to apply the theoretical principles from well-established design frameworks to a pre-existing serious game. The expected result is a generalized game that can be quickly customized to teach LOs not originally targeted by the game. This methodology begins by describing the general components in a game, then uses a combination of two SG design frameworks to extract the teaching elements present in the game. The identified teaching elements are then used as the theoretical basis to determine the range of LOs that can be taught by the game. This paper evaluates the proposed methodology by presenting a case study of refactoring the serious game Battlespace Next (BSN) to teach joint military capabilities. The range of LOs that can be taught by the generalized BSN are identified, and examples of creating custom LOs are given. Survey results from users of the generalized game are also provided. Lastly, the expected impact of this work is discussed and a road map for future work and evaluation is presented.Keywords: serious games, learning objectives, game design, learning theory, game framework
Procedia PDF Downloads 11517404 Influence of the Coarse-Graining Method on a DEM-CFD Simulation of a Pilot-Scale Gas Fluidized Bed
Authors: Theo Ndereyimana, Yann Dufresne, Micael Boulet, Stephane Moreau
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The DEM (Discrete Element Method) is used a lot in the industry to simulate large-scale flows of particles; for instance, in a fluidized bed, it allows to predict of the trajectory of every particle. One of the main limits of the DEM is the computational time. The CGM (Coarse-Graining Method) has been developed to tackle this issue. The goal is to increase the size of the particle and, by this means, decrease the number of particles. The method leads to a reduction of the collision frequency due to the reduction of the number of particles. Multiple characteristics of the particle movement and the fluid flow - when there is a coupling between DEM and CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics). The main characteristic that is impacted is the energy dissipation of the system, to regain the dissipation, an ADM (Additional Dissipative Mechanism) can be added to the model. The objective of this current work is to observe the influence of the choice of the ADM and the factor of coarse-graining on the numerical results. These results will be compared with experimental results of a fluidized bed and with a numerical model of the same fluidized bed without using the CGM. The numerical model is one of a 3D cylindrical fluidized bed with 9.6M Geldart B-type particles in a bubbling regime.Keywords: additive dissipative mechanism, coarse-graining, discrete element method, fluidized bed
Procedia PDF Downloads 7017403 Direct Laser Fabrication and Characterization of Cu-Al-Ni Shape Memory Alloy for Seismic Damping Applications
Authors: Gonzalo Reyes, Magdalena Walczak, Esteban Ramos-Moore, Jorge Ramos-Grez
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Metal additive manufacture technologies have gained strong support and acceptance as a promising and alternative method to manufacture high performance complex geometry products. The main purpose of the present work is to study the microstructure and phase transformation temperatures of Cu-Al-Ni shape memory alloys fabricated from a direct laser additive process using metallic powders as precursors. The potential application is to manufacture self-centering seismic dampers for earthquake protection of buildings out of a copper based alloy by an additive process. In this process, the Cu-Al-Ni alloy is melted, inside of a high temperature and vacuum chamber with the aid of a high power fiber laser under inert atmosphere. The laser provides the energy to melt the alloy powder layer. The process allows fabricating fully dense, oxygen-free Cu-Al-Ni specimens using different laser power levels, laser powder interaction times, furnace ambient temperatures, and cooling rates as well as modifying concentration of the alloying elements. Two sets of specimens were fabricated with a nominal composition of Cu-13Al-3Ni and Cu-13Al-4Ni in wt.%, however, semi-quantitative chemical analysis using EDX examination showed that the specimens’ resulting composition was closer to Cu-12Al-5Ni and Cu-11Al-8Ni, respectively. In spite of that fact, it is expected that the specimens should still possess shape memory behavior. To confirm this hypothesis, phase transformation temperatures will be measured using DSC technique, to look for martensitic and austenitic phase transformations at 150°C. So far, metallographic analysis of the specimens showed defined martensitic microstructures. Moreover, XRD technique revealed diffraction peaks corresponding to (0 0 18) and (1 2 8) planes, which are too associated with the presence of martensitic phase. We conclude that it would be possible to obtain fully dense Cu-Al-Ni alloys having shape memory effect behavior by direct laser fabrication process, and to advance into fabrication of self centering seismic dampers by a controllable metal additive manufacturing process.Keywords: Cu-Al-Ni alloys, direct laser fabrication, shape memory alloy, self-centering seismic dampers
Procedia PDF Downloads 51617402 Confidence Envelopes for Parametric Model Selection Inference and Post-Model Selection Inference
Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade
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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 8917401 Effect of Single Overload Ratio and Stress Ratio on Fatigue Crack Growth
Authors: M. Benachour, N. Benachour, M. Benguediab
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In this investigation, variation of cyclic loading effect on fatigue crack growth is studied. This study is performed on 2024 T351 and 7050-T74 aluminum alloys, used in aeronautical structures. The propagation model used in this study is NASGRO model. In constant amplitude loading (CA), the effect of stress ratio has been investigated. Fatigue life and fatigue crack growth rate were affected by this factor. Results showed an increasing in fatigue crack growth rates (FCGRs) with increasing stress ratio. Variable amplitude loading (VAL) can take many forms i.e with a single overload, overload band etc. The shape of these loads affects strongly the fracture life and FCGRs. The application of a single overload (ORL) decrease the FCGR and increase the delay crack length caused by the formation of a larger plastic zone compared to the plastic zone due without VAL. The fatigue behavior of the both material under single overload has been compared.Keywords: fatigue crack growth, overload ratio, stress ratio, generalized willenborg model, retardation, al-alloys
Procedia PDF Downloads 36317400 A Generalized Weighted Loss for Support Vextor Classification and Multilayer Perceptron
Authors: Filippo Portera
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Usually standard algorithms employ a loss where each error is the mere absolute difference between the true value and the prediction, in case of a regression task. In the present, we present several error weighting schemes that are a generalization of the consolidated routine. We study both a binary classification model for Support Vextor Classification and a regression net for Multylayer Perceptron. Results proves that the error is never worse than the standard procedure and several times it is better.Keywords: loss, binary-classification, MLP, weights, regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 9517399 A Robust Model Predictive Control for a Photovoltaic Pumping System Subject to Actuator Saturation Nonlinearity and Parameter Uncertainties: A Linear Matrix Inequality Approach
Authors: Sofiane Bououden, Ilyes Boulkaibet
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In this paper, a robust model predictive controller (RMPC) for uncertain nonlinear system under actuator saturation is designed to control a DC-DC buck converter in PV pumping application, where this system is subject to actuator saturation and parameter uncertainties. The considered nonlinear system contains a linear constant part perturbed by an additive state-dependent nonlinear term. Based on the saturating actuator property, an appropriate linear feedback control law is constructed and used to minimize an infinite horizon cost function within the framework of linear matrix inequalities. The proposed approach has successfully provided a solution to the optimization problem that can stabilize the nonlinear plants. Furthermore, sufficient conditions for the existence of the proposed controller guarantee the robust stability of the system in the presence of polytypic uncertainties. In addition, the simulation results have demonstrated the efficiency of the proposed control scheme.Keywords: PV pumping system, DC-DC buck converter, robust model predictive controller, nonlinear system, actuator saturation, linear matrix inequality
Procedia PDF Downloads 18117398 Air Pollution on Stroke in Shenzhen, China: A Time-Stratified Case Crossover Study Modified by Meteorological Variables
Authors: Lei Li, Ping Yin, Haneen Khreis
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Stroke is the second leading cause of death and a third leading cause of death and disability worldwide in 2019. Given the significant role of environmental factors in stroke development and progression, it is essential to investigate the effect of air pollution on stroke occurrence while considering the modifying effects of meteorological variables. This study aimed to evaluate the association between short-term exposure to air pollution and the incidence of stroke subtypes in Shenzhen, China, and to explore the potential interactions of meteorological factors with air pollutants. The study analyzed data from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2014, including 88,214 cases of ischemic stroke and 30,433 cases of hemorrhagic stroke among residents of Shenzhen. Using a time-stratified case–crossover design with conditional quasi-Poisson regression, the study estimated the percentage changes in stroke morbidity associated with short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter less than 10 mm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O₃). A five-day moving average of air pollution was applied to capture the cumulative effects of air pollution. The estimates were further stratified by sex, age, education level, and season. The additive and multiplicative interaction between air pollutants and meteorologic variables were assessed by the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) and adding the interactive term into the main model, respectively. The study found that NO₂ was positively associated with ischemic stroke occurrence throughout the year and in the cold season (November through April), with a stronger effect observed among men. Each 10 μg/m³ increment in the five-day moving average of NO₂ was associated with a 2.38% (95% confidence interval was 1.36% to 3.41%) increase in the risk of ischemic stroke over the whole year and a 3.36% (2.04% to 4.69%) increase in the cold season. The harmful effect of CO on ischemic stroke was observed only in the cold season, with each 1 mg/m³ increment in the five-day moving average of CO increasing the risk by 12.34% (3.85% to 21.51%). There was no statistically significant additive interaction between individual air pollutants and temperature or relative humidity, as demonstrated by the RERI. The interaction term in the model showed a multiplicative antagonistic effect between NO₂ and temperature (p-value=0.0268). For hemorrhagic stroke, no evidence of the effects of any individual air pollutants was found in the whole population. However, the RERI indicated a statistically additive and multiplicative interaction of temperature on the effects of PM10 and O₃ on hemorrhagic stroke onset. Therefore, the insignificant conclusion should be interpreted with caution. The study suggests that environmental NO₂ and CO might increase the morbidity of ischemic stroke, particularly during the cold season. These findings could help inform policy decisions aimed at reducing air pollution levels to prevent stroke and other health conditions. Additionally, the study provides valuable insights into the interaction between air pollution and meteorological variables, which underscores the need for further research into the complex relationship between environmental factors and health.Keywords: air pollution, meteorological variables, interactive effect, seasonal pattern, stroke
Procedia PDF Downloads 8817397 Bivariate Generalization of q-α-Bernstein Polynomials
Authors: Tarul Garg, P. N. Agrawal
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We propose to define the q-analogue of the α-Bernstein Kantorovich operators and then introduce the q-bivariate generalization of these operators to study the approximation of functions of two variables. We obtain the rate of convergence of these bivariate operators by means of the total modulus of continuity, partial modulus of continuity and the Peetre’s K-functional for continuous functions. Further, in order to study the approximation of functions of two variables in a space bigger than the space of continuous functions, i.e. Bögel space; the GBS (Generalized Boolean Sum) of the q-bivariate operators is considered and degree of approximation is discussed for the Bögel continuous and Bögel differentiable functions with the aid of the Lipschitz class and the mixed modulus of smoothness.Keywords: Bögel continuous, Bögel differentiable, generalized Boolean sum, K-functional, mixed modulus of smoothness
Procedia PDF Downloads 37917396 In and Out-Of-Sample Performance of Non Simmetric Models in International Price Differential Forecasting in a Commodity Country Framework
Authors: Nicola Rubino
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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points
Procedia PDF Downloads 27817395 Numerical Simulation on Deformation Behaviour of Additively Manufactured AlSi10Mg Alloy
Authors: Racholsan Raj Nirmal, B. S. V. Patnaik, R. Jayaganthan
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The deformation behaviour of additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy under low strains, high strain rates and elevated temperature conditions is essential to analyse and predict its response against dynamic loading such as impact and thermomechanical fatigue. The constitutive relation of Johnson-Cook is used to capture the strain rate sensitivity and thermal softening effect in AlSi10Mg alloy. Johnson-Cook failure model is widely used for exploring damage mechanics and predicting the fracture in many materials. In this present work, Johnson-Cook material and damage model parameters for additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy have been determined numerically from four types of uniaxial tensile test. Three different uniaxial tensile tests with dynamic strain rates (0.1, 1, 10, 50, and 100 s-1) and elevated temperature tensile test with three different temperature conditions (450 K, 500 K and 550 K) were performed on 3D printed AlSi10Mg alloy in ABAQUS/Explicit. Hexahedral elements are used to discretize tensile specimens and fracture energy value of 43.6 kN/m was used for damage initiation. Levenberg Marquardt optimization method was used for the evaluation of Johnson-Cook model parameters. It was observed that additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy has shown relatively higher strain rate sensitivity and lower thermal stability as compared to the other Al alloys.Keywords: ABAQUS, additive manufacturing, AlSi10Mg, Johnson-Cook model
Procedia PDF Downloads 16917394 Influence of Internal Topologies on Components Produced by Selective Laser Melting: Numerical Analysis
Authors: C. Malça, P. Gonçalves, N. Alves, A. Mateus
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Regardless of the manufacturing process used, subtractive or additive, material, purpose and application, produced components are conventionally solid mass with more or less complex shape depending on the production technology selected. Aspects such as reducing the weight of components, associated with the low volume of material required and the almost non-existent material waste, speed and flexibility of production and, primarily, a high mechanical strength combined with high structural performance, are competitive advantages in any industrial sector, from automotive, molds, aviation, aerospace, construction, pharmaceuticals, medicine and more recently in human tissue engineering. Such features, properties and functionalities are attained in metal components produced using the additive technique of Rapid Prototyping from metal powders commonly known as Selective Laser Melting (SLM), with optimized internal topologies and varying densities. In order to produce components with high strength and high structural and functional performance, regardless of the type of application, three different internal topologies were developed and analyzed using numerical computational tools. The developed topologies were numerically submitted to mechanical compression and four point bending testing. Finite Element Analysis results demonstrate how different internal topologies can contribute to improve mechanical properties, even with a high degree of porosity relatively to fully dense components. Results are very promising not only from the point of view of mechanical resistance, but especially through the achievement of considerable variation in density without loss of structural and functional high performance.Keywords: additive manufacturing, internal topologies, porosity, rapid prototyping, selective laser melting
Procedia PDF Downloads 33117393 Economic Optimization of Shell and Tube Heat Exchanger Using Nanofluid
Authors: Hassan Hajabdollahi
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Economic optimization of shell and tube heat exchanger (STHE) is presented in this paper. To increase the rate of heat transfer, copper oxide (CuO) nanoparticle is added into the tube side fluid and their optimum results are compared with the case of without additive nanoparticle. Total annual cost (TAC) is selected as fitness function and nine decision variables related to the heat exchanger parameters as well as concentration of nanoparticle are considered. Optimization results reveal the noticeable improvement in the TAC and in the case of heat exchanger working with nanofluid compared with the case of base fluid (8.9%). Comparison of the results between two studied cases also reveal that the lower tube diameter, tube number, and baffle spacing are needed in the case of heat exchanger working with nanofluid compared with the case of base fluid.Keywords: shell and tube heat exchanger, nanoparticles additive, total annual cost, particle volumetric concentration
Procedia PDF Downloads 42417392 A Method to Predict the Thermo-Elastic Behavior of Laser-Integrated Machine Tools
Authors: C. Brecher, M. Fey, F. Du Bois-Reymond, S. Neus
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Additive manufacturing has emerged into a fast-growing section within the manufacturing technologies. Established machine tool manufacturers, such as DMG MORI, recently presented machine tools combining milling and laser welding. By this, machine tools can realize a higher degree of flexibility and a shorter production time. Still there are challenges that have to be accounted for in terms of maintaining the necessary machining accuracy - especially due to thermal effects arising through the use of high power laser processing units. To study the thermal behavior of laser-integrated machine tools, it is essential to analyze and simulate the thermal behavior of machine components, individual and assembled. This information will help to design a geometrically stable machine tool under the influence of high power laser processes. This paper presents an approach to decrease the loss of machining precision due to thermal impacts. Real effects of laser machining processes are considered and thus enable an optimized design of the machine tool, respective its components, in the early design phase. Core element of this approach is a matched FEM model considering all relevant variables arising, e.g. laser power, angle of laser beam, reflective coefficients and heat transfer coefficient. Hence, a systematic approach to obtain this matched FEM model is essential. Indicating the thermal behavior of structural components as well as predicting the laser beam path, to determine the relevant beam intensity on the structural components, there are the two constituent aspects of the method. To match the model both aspects of the method have to be combined and verified empirically. In this context, an essential machine component of a five axis machine tool, the turn-swivel table, serves as the demonstration object for the verification process. Therefore, a turn-swivel table test bench as well as an experimental set-up to measure the beam propagation were developed and are described in the paper. In addition to the empirical investigation, a simulative approach of the described types of experimental examination is presented. Concluding, it is shown that the method and a good understanding of the two core aspects, the thermo-elastic machine behavior and the laser beam path, as well as their combination helps designers to minimize the loss of precision in the early stages of the design phase.Keywords: additive manufacturing, laser beam machining, machine tool, thermal effects
Procedia PDF Downloads 26517391 A Survey on the Requirements of University Course Timetabling
Authors: Nurul Liyana Abdul Aziz, Nur Aidya Hanum Aizam
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Course timetabling problems occur every semester in a university which includes the allocation of resources (subjects, lecturers and students) to a number of fixed rooms and timeslots. The assignment is carried out in a way such that there are no conflicts within rooms, students and lecturers, as well as fulfilling a range of constraints. The constraints consist of rules and policies set up by the universities as well as lecturers’ and students’ preferences of courses to be allocated in specific timeslots. This paper specifically focuses on the preferences of the course timetabling problem in one of the public universities in Malaysia. The demands will be considered into our existing mathematical model to make it more generalized and can be used widely. We have distributed questionnaires to a number of lecturers and students of the university to investigate their demands and preferences for their desired course timetable. We classify the preferences thus converting them to construct one mathematical model that can produce such timetable.Keywords: university course timetabling problem, integer programming, preferences, constraints
Procedia PDF Downloads 36617390 Studying the Behavior of Asphalt Mix and Their Properties in the Presence of Nano Materials
Authors: Aman Patidar, Dipankar Sarkar, Manish Pal
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Due to rapid development, increase in the traffic load, higher traffic volume and seasonal variation in temperature, asphalt pavement shows distresses like rutting, fatigue and thermal cracking etc. because of this pavement fails during service life so that bitumen needs to be modified with some additive. In this study VG30 grade bitumen modify with addition of nanosilica with 1% to 5% (increment of 1%) by weight of bitumen. Hot mix asphalt (HMA) have higher mixing, laying and rolling temperatures which leads to higher consumption of fuel. To address this issue, a nano material named ZycoTherm which is chemical warm mix asphalt (WMA) additive is added to bitumen. Nanosilica modification (NSMB) results in the increase in stability compared to unmodified bitumen (UMB). WMA modified mix shows slightly higher stability than UMB and NSMB in a lower bitumen content. The Retained stability and tensile strength ratio (TSR) is more than 75% and 80% respectively for both mixes. Nanosilica with WMA has more resistant to temperature susceptibility, moisture susceptibility and short term aging than NSMB.Keywords: HMA, nanosilica, NSMB, temperature, TSR, UMB, WMA
Procedia PDF Downloads 31017389 Optimizing PelletPAVE Rubberized Asphalt MIX Design Using Gyratory Compaction and Volumetrics
Authors: Hussain Al-Baghli
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In comparison to hot mix asphalt (HMAs) composed of non-modified bitumens, the superior performance of rubberized HMAs is very well documented, and numerous trials in the USA and elsewhere have demonstrated excellent performance in terms of creep, fatigue, and durability. In this investigation, rubberized HMA technology was examined to address the most critical forms of pavement distresses in the State of Kuwait, namely, high-temperature rutting and moisture-induced raveling. Pelletpave additive was selected as the preferred technology since it offered a convenient method of directly modifying the exiting local HMA recipe without having to polymer modify the bitumen. Experimental work using various Pelletpave contents was carried out at Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR) to design an optimum rubberized HMA formulation prior to conducting a pilot-scale road trial. With the aid of a gyratory compactor, the compaction and volumetric properties of HMAs containing 2.5% and 3.0% Pelletpave additive were investigated at a range of bitumen contents, all by mass of total mix.Keywords: modified bitumen, rubberized hot mix asphalt, gyratory compaction, volumetric properties
Procedia PDF Downloads 18217388 Molecular Dynamics Simulation for Vibration Analysis at Nanocomposite Plates
Authors: Babak Safaei, A. M. Fattahi
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Polymer/carbon nanotube nanocomposites have a wide range of promising applications Due to their enhanced properties. In this work, free vibration analysis of single-walled carbon nanotube-reinforced composite plates is conducted in which carbon nanotubes are embedded in an amorphous polyethylene. The rule of mixture based on various types of plate model namely classical plate theory (CLPT), first-order shear deformation theory (FSDT), and higher-order shear deformation theory (HSDT) was employed to obtain fundamental frequencies of the nanocomposite plates. Generalized differential quadrature (GDQ) method was used to discretize the governing differential equations along with the simply supported and clamped boundary conditions. The material properties of the nanocomposite plates were evaluated using molecular dynamic (MD) simulation corresponding to both short-(10,10) SWCNT and long-(10,10) SWCNT composites. Then the results obtained directly from MD simulations were fitted with those calculated by the rule of mixture to extract appropriate values of carbon nanotube efficiency parameters accounting for the scale-dependent material properties. The selected numerical results are presented to address the influences of nanotube volume fraction and edge supports on the value of fundamental frequency of carbon nanotube-reinforced composite plates corresponding to both long- and short-nanotube composites.Keywords: nanocomposites, molecular dynamics simulation, free vibration, generalized, differential quadrature (GDQ) method
Procedia PDF Downloads 32917387 Effect of Coal on Engineering Properties in Building Materials: Opportunity to Manufacturing Insulating Bricks
Authors: Bachir Chemani, Halima Chemani
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The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of adding coal to obtain insulating ceramic product. The preparation of mixtures is achieved with 04 types of different masse compositions, consisting of gray and yellow clay, and coal. Analyses are performed on local raw materials by adding coal as additive. The coal content varies from 5 to 20 % in weight by varying the size of coal particles ranging from 0.25 mm to 1.60 mm. Initially, each natural moisture content of a raw material has been determined at the temperature of 105°C in a laboratory oven. The Influence of low-coal content on absorption, the apparent density, the contraction and the resistance during compression have been evaluated. The experimental results showed that the optimized composition could be obtained by adding 10% by weight of coal leading thus to insulating ceramic products with water absorption, a density and resistance to compression of 9.40 %, 1.88 g/cm3, 35.46 MPa, respectively. The results show that coal, when mixed with traditional raw materials, offers the conditions to be used as an additive in the production of lightweight ceramic products.Keywords: clay, coal, resistance to compression, insulating bricks
Procedia PDF Downloads 32917386 Influence of Raw Material Composition on Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Nodular Cast Iron
Authors: Alan Vaško, Juraj Belan, Lenka Hurtalová, Eva Tillová
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The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of raw material composition on the microstructure, mechanical and fatigue properties and micromechanisms of failure of nodular cast iron. In order to evaluate the influence of charge composition, the structural analysis, mechanical and fatigue tests and micro fractographic analysis were carried out on specimens of ten melts with different charge compositions. The basic charge of individual melts was formed by a different ratio of pig iron and steel scrap and by different additive for regulation of chemical composition (silicon carbide or ferrosilicon). The results show differences in mechanical and fatigue properties, which are connected with the microstructure. SiC additive positively influences microstructure. Consequently, mechanical and fatigue properties of nodular cast iron are improved, especially in the melts with the higher ratio of steel scrap in the charge.Keywords: nodular cast iron, silicon carbide, microstructure, mechanical properties
Procedia PDF Downloads 58217385 Closed-Form Sharma-Mittal Entropy Rate for Gaussian Processes
Authors: Septimia Sarbu
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The entropy rate of a stochastic process is a fundamental concept in information theory. It provides a limit to the amount of information that can be transmitted reliably over a communication channel, as stated by Shannon's coding theorems. Recently, researchers have focused on developing new measures of information that generalize Shannon's classical theory. The aim is to design more efficient information encoding and transmission schemes. This paper continues the study of generalized entropy rates, by deriving a closed-form solution to the Sharma-Mittal entropy rate for Gaussian processes. Using the squeeze theorem, we solve the limit in the definition of the entropy rate, for different values of alpha and beta, which are the parameters of the Sharma-Mittal entropy. In the end, we compare it with Shannon and Rényi's entropy rates for Gaussian processes.Keywords: generalized entropies, Sharma-Mittal entropy rate, Gaussian processes, eigenvalues of the covariance matrix, squeeze theorem
Procedia PDF Downloads 51917384 Early Age Microstructural Analysis of Cement-Polymer Composite Paste Cured at High Temperature
Authors: Bertilia L. Bartley, Ledjane S. Barreto
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As a preliminary investigation on the control of microcracking in composite cement pastes, this study explores and compares the compatibility of Tetraethyl Orthosilicate (TEOS), Ethylene Glycol (EG) and Silicone Resin (SIL) in cement pastes cured at high temperature. Pastes were prepared by incorporating ordinary Portland cement (OPC) into an additive solution, using a solution/cement ratio of 0.45. Specimens were molded for 24h at 21 ± 2°C, then cured in deionized water for another 24h at 74 ± 1°C. TEOS and EG influence on fresh paste properties were similar to the reference OPC paste yet disintegration was observed in EG and SIL specimens after the first 12h of curing. X-Ray Diffraction analysis (XRD) coupled with thermogravimetric analysis (TGA/DTG) verified that SIL addition impedes portlandite formation significantly. Backscatter Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) techniques were therefore performed on selected areas of each sample to investigate the morphology of the hydration products detected. Various morphologies of portlandite crystals were observed in pastes with EG and TEOS addition, as well as dense morphologies of calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) gel and fibers, and ettringite needles. However, the formation of portlandite aggregate and clusters of C-S-H was highly favored by TEOS addition. Furthermore, the microstructural details of composite pastes were clearly visible at low magnifications i.e. 500x, as compared to the OPC paste. The results demonstrate accelerated hydration within composite pastes, a uniform distribution of hydration products, as well as an adhesive interaction with the products and polymer additive. Overall, TEOS demonstrated the most favorable influence, which indicates the potential of TEOS as a compatible polymer additive within the cement system at high temperature.Keywords: accelerated curing, cement/polymer composite, hydration, microstructural properties, morphology, portlandite, scanning electron microscopy (sem)
Procedia PDF Downloads 182