Search results for: Bayesian adjustment

Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara, William Chimee Nwaoha

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The paper set out to stress on how financial inclusion index could be calculated and also investigated the impact of inclusive finance on inclusive growth in an emerging economy. In the light of these objectives, chi-wins method was used to calculate indexes of financial inclusion while co-integration and error correction model were used for evaluation of the impact of financial inclusion on inclusive growth. The result of the analysis revealed that financial inclusion while having a long-run relationship with GDP growth is an insignificant function of the growth of the economy. The speed of adjustment is correctly signed and significant. On the basis of these results, the researchers called for tireless efforts of government and banking sector in promoting financial inclusion in developing countries.

Keywords: chi-wins index, co-integration, error correction model, financial inclusion

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Authors: Kwa-Sur Tam, Byung O. Kang

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By using different ranges of daily sky clearness index defined in this paper, any day can be classified as a clear sky day, a partly cloudy day or a cloudy day. This paper demonstrates how short-term forecasting of solar irradiation can be improved by taking into consideration the type of day so defined. The source of day type dependency has been identified. Forecasting methods that take into consideration of day type have been developed and their efficacy have been established. While all methods that implement some form of adjustment to the cloud cover forecast provided by the U.S. National Weather Service provide accuracy improvement, methods that incorporate day type dependency provides even further improvement in forecast accuracy.

Keywords: day types, forecast methods, National Weather Service, sky cover, solar energy

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Authors: Shaine Mehta, Neelam Parmar, Patrick White, Mark Ashworth

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Patients with a history of substance have a high prevalence of comorbidities, including asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Mortality rates are higher than that of the general population and the link to respiratory disease is reported. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) support opioid substitution therapy as an effective means for harm reduction. However, whilst a high proportion of patients receiving opioid substitution therapy are smokers, to the author’s best knowledge there have been no studies of respiratory disease and smoking intensity in these patients. A cross sectional prevalence study was conducted using an anonymised patient-level database in primary care, Lambeth DataNet (LDN). We included patients aged 18 years and over who had records of ever having been prescribed methadone in primary care. Patients under 18 years old or prescribed buprenorphine (because of uncertainty about the prescribing indication) were excluded. Demographic, smoking, alcohol and asthma and COPD coding data were extracted. Differences between methadone and non-methadone users were explored with multivariable analysis. LDN contained data on 321, 395 patients ≥ 18 years; 676 (0.16%) had a record of methadone prescription. Patients prescribed methadone were more likely to be male (70.7% vs. 50.4%), older (48.9yrs vs. 41.5yrs) and less likely to be from an ethnic minority group (South Asian 2.1% vs. 7.8%; Black African 8.9% vs. 21.4%). Almost all those prescribed methadone were smokers or ex-smokers (97.3% vs. 40.9%); more were non-alcohol drinkers (41.3% vs. 24.3%). We found a high prevalence of COPD (12.4% vs 1.4%) and asthma (14.2% vs 4.4%). Smoking intensity data shows a high prevalence of ≥ 20 cigarettes per day (21.5% vs. 13.1%). Risk of COPD, adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity and deprivation, was raised in smokers: odds ratio 14.81 (95%CI 11.26, 19.47), and in the methadone group: OR 7.51 (95%CI: 5.78, 9.77). Furthermore, after adjustment for smoking intensity (number of cigarettes/day), the risk was raised in methadone group: OR 4.77 (95%CI: 3.13, 7.28). High burden of respiratory disease compounded by the high rates of smoking is a public health concern. This supports an integrated approach to health in patients treated for opiate dependence, with access to smoking cessation support. Further work may evaluate the current structure and commissioning of substance misuse services, including smoking cessation. Regression modelling highlights that methadone as a ‘risk factor’ was independently associated with COPD prevalence, even after adjustment for smoking intensity. This merits further exploration, as the association may be related to unexplored aspects of smoking (such as the number of years smoked) or may be related to other related exposures, such as smoking heroin or crack cocaine.

Keywords: methadone, respiratory disease, smoking cessation, substance misuse

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Authors: Mouhammd Alkasassbeh, Alaa Lasasmeh

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We live in an era of rapid development as a result of significant scientific growth. Like other technologies, wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are playing one of the main roles. Based on WSNs, ZigBee adds many features to devices, such as minimum cost and power consumption, and increasing the range and connect ability of sensor nodes. ZigBee technology has come to be used in various fields, including science, engineering, and networks, and even in medicinal aspects of intelligence building. In this work, we generated two main datasets, the first being based on tree topology and the second on star topology. The datasets were evaluated by three machine learning (ML) algorithms: J48, meta.j48 and multilayer perceptron (MLP). Each topology was classified into normal and abnormal (attack) network traffic. The dataset used in our work contained simulated data from network simulation 2 (NS2). In each database, the Bayesian network meta.j48 classifier achieved the highest accuracy level among other classifiers, of 99.7% and 99.2% respectively.

Keywords: IDS, Machine learning, WSN, ZigBee technology

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Authors: Julianto Agung Saputro, Jogiyanto Hartono

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Multiple valuation is widely used by investors and practitioners but its accuracy is questionable. Multiple valuation inaccuracies are due to the unreliability of information used in valuation, inaccuracies comparison group selection, and use of individual multiple values. This study investigated the accuracy of valuation to examine factors that can increase the accuracy of the valuation of multiple ratios, that are discretionary accruals, the comparison group, and the composite of multiple valuation. These results indicate that multiple value adjustment method with discretionary accruals provides better accuracy, the industry comparator group method combined with the size and growth of companies also provide better accuracy. Composite of individual multiple valuation gives the best accuracy. If all of these factors combined, the accuracy of valuation of multiple ratios will give the best results.

Keywords: multiple, valuation, composite, accuracy

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Authors: Michele Sinico

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The psychological present has an actual extension. When a sequence of instantaneous stimuli falls in this short interval of time, observers perceive a compresence of events in succession and the temporal order depends on the qualitative relationships between the perceptual properties of the events. Two experiments were carried out to study the influence of perceptual grouping, with and without temporal displacement, on the duration of auditory sequences. The psychophysical method of adjustment was adopted. The first experiment investigated the effect of temporal displacement of a white noise on sequence duration. The second experiment investigated the effect of temporal displacement, along the pitch dimension, on temporal shortening of sequence. The results suggest that the temporal order of sounds, in the case of temporal displacement, is organized along the pitch dimension.

Keywords: time perception, perceptual present, temporal displacement, Gestalt laws of perceptual organization

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Authors: Lennart Dimberg, Lala Joulha Ian

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Introduction: Overweight (BMI 25-30) and obesity (BMI 30+) have consistently been associated with cardiovascular (CV) risk and death since the Framingham heart study in 1948, and BMI was included in the original Framingham risk score (FRS). Background: Myocardial infarction (MI) poses a serious threat to the patient's life. In addition to BMI, several other indices of overweight have been presented and argued to replace FRS as more relevant measures of CV risk. These indices include waist circumference (WC), waist/hip ratio (WHR), sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), and sagittal abdominal diameter to height (SADHtR). Specific research question: The research question of this study is to evaluate the interrelationship between the various body measurements, BMI, WC, WHR, SAD, and SADHtR, and which measurement is strongly associated with MI and death. Methods: In 1993, 1,000 middle-aged Caucasian, randomly selected working men of the Swedish Volvo-Renault cohort were surveyed at a nurse-led health examination with a questionnaire, EKG, laboratory tests, blood pressure, height, weight, waist, and sagittal abdominal diameter measurements. Outcome data of myocardial infarction over 28 years come from Swedeheart (the Swedish national myocardial infarction registry) and the Swedish death registry. The Aalen-Johansen and Kaplan–Meier methods were used to estimate the cumulative incidences of MI and death. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to compare BMI with the other four body measurements. The risk for the various measures of obesity was calculated with outcomes of accumulated first-time myocardial infarction and death as odds ratios (OR) in quartiles. The ORs between the 4th and the 1st quartile of each measure were calculated to estimate the association between the body measurement variables and the probability of cumulative incidences of myocardial infarction (MI) over time. Double-sided P values below 0.05 will be considered statistically significant. Unadjusted odds ratios were calculated for obesity indicators, MI, and death. Adjustments for age, diabetes, SBP, and the ratio of total cholesterol/HDL-C and blue/white collar status were performed. Results: Out of 1000 people, 959 subjects had full information about the five different body measurements. Of those, 90 participants had a first MI, and 194 persons died. The study showed that there was a high and significant correlation between the five different body measurements, and they were all associated with CVD risk factors. All body measurements were significantly associated with MI, with the highest (OR=3.6) seen for SADHtR and WC. After adjustment, all but SADHtR remained significant with weaker ORs. As for all-cause mortality, WHR (OR=1.7), SAD (OR=1.9), and SADHtR (OR=1.6) were significantly associated, but not WC and BMI. However, after adjustment, only WHR and SAD were significantly associated with death, but with attenuated ORs.

Keywords: BMI, death, epidemiology, myocardial infarction, risk factor, sagittal abdominal diameter, sagittal abdominal diameter to height, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio

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Authors: Thanh-Phong Dao, Shyh-Chour Huang

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This study presents a quasi-zero stiffness (QZS) vibration isolator using flexure-based spring mechanisms which afford both negative and positive stiffness elements, which enable self-adjustment. The QZS property of the isolator is achieved at the equilibrium position. A nonlinear mathematical model is then developed, based on the pre-compression of the flexure-based spring mechanisms. The dynamics are further analyzed using the Harmonic Balance method. The vibration attention efficiency is illustrated using displacement transmissibility, which is then compared with the corresponding linear isolator. The effects of parameters on performance are also investigated by numerical solutions. The flexure-based spring mechanisms are subsequently designed using the concept of compliant mechanisms, with evaluation by ANSYS software, and simulations of the QZS isolator.

Keywords: vibration isolator, quasi-zero stiffness, flexure-based spring mechanisms, compliant mechanism

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Authors: Jie Bai, Yongsheng Gao, Shengxin Wang, Jie Zhao

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Through the establishment of the elbow biomechanical model, it can provide theoretical guide for rehabilitation therapy on the upper limb of the human body. A biomechanical model of the elbow joint can be built by the connection of muscle force model and elbow dynamics. But there are many undetermined coefficients in the model like the optimal joint angle and optimal muscle force which are usually specified as the experimental parameters of other workers. Because of the individual differences, there is a certain deviation of the final result. To this end, the RMS value of the deviation between the actual angle and calculated angle is considered. A set of coefficients which lead to the minimum RMS value will be chosen to be the optimal parameters. The direct search method and the conjugacy search method are used to get the optimal parameters, thus the model can be more accurate and mode adaptability.

Keywords: elbow biomechanical model, RMS, direct search, conjugacy search

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Authors: Si Chen, Quanhong Jiang

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In the increasingly mature posture recognition technology, human movement information is widely used in sports rehabilitation, human-computer interaction, medical health, human posture assessment, and other fields today; this project uses the most original ideas; it is proposed to use the collection equipment for the collection of myoelectric data, reflect the muscle posture change on a degree of freedom through data processing, carry out data-muscle three-dimensional model joint adjustment, and realize basic pose recognition. Based on this, bionic aids or medical rehabilitation equipment can be further developed with the help of robotic arms and cutting-edge technology, which has a bright future and unlimited development space.

Keywords: pose recognition, 3D animation, electromyography, machine learning, bionics

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Authors: Archil Undilashvili, Ketevan Stvilia, Dustin Gilbreath, Giorgi Dzneladze, Gordon Charchward

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Introduction: In recent years, diverse types of wheelchairs, both local production and imported, have been made available on the Georgian market for wheelchair users. Some types of wheelchairs are sold together with a service package, while the others, including the State Program, Supported locally-produced ones, don’t provide adjustment and maintenance service packages to users. Within the USAID Physical Rehabilitation Project in Georgia, a study was conducted to assess the impact of the wheelchair service provision in line with the WHO guidelines on the health and overall satisfaction of wheelchair users in Georgia. Methodology: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in May 2021. A structured questionnaire was used for telephone interviews that, along with socio-demographic characteristics, included questions for assessment of accessibility, availability, timeliness, cost and quality of wheelchair services received. Out of 1060 individuals listed in the census of wheelchair users, 752 were available for interview, with an actual response rate of 73.4%. 552 wheelchair users (31%) or their caregivers (69%) agreed to participate in the survey. In addition to using descriptive statistics, the study used multivariate matching of wheelchair users who received wheelchair services and who did not (control group). In addition, to evaluate satisfaction with service provision, respondents were asked to assess services. Findings: The majority (67%) of wheelchair users included in the survey were male. The average age of participants was 43. The three most frequently named reasons for using a wheelchair were cerebral palsy (29%), followed by stroke (18%), and amputation (12%). Users have had their current chair for four years on average. Overall, 60% of respondents reported that they were assessed before providing a wheelchair, but only half of them reported that their preferences and needs were considered. Only 13% of respondents had services in line with WHO guidelines and only 22% of wheelchair users had training when they received their current chair. 16% of participants said they had follow-up services, and 41% received adjustment services after receiving the chair. A slight majority (56%) of participants were satisfied with the quality of service provision and the service provision overall. Similarly, 55% were satisfied with the accessibility of service provision. A slightly larger majority (61%) were satisfied with the timeliness of service provision. The matching analysis suggests that users that received services in line with WHO guidelines were more satisfied with their chairs (the difference 17 point/0-100 scale) and they were four percentage points less likely to have health problems attributed to the chair. The regression analysis provides a similar finding of a 21 point increase in satisfaction attributable to services. Conclusion: The provision of wheelchair services in line with WHO guidelines and with follow-up services is likely to have a positive impact on the daily lives of wheelchair users in Georgia. Wheelchair services should be institutionalized as a standard component of wheelchair provision in Georgia.

Keywords: physical rehabilitation, wheelchair users, persons with disabilities, wheelchair production

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Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

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Authors: Jung-Ho Moon, Myung-Gon Yoon, Tae Kwon Ha

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This paper presents a wireless sensor network protocol for a car parking monitoring system. A wireless sensor network for the purpose is composed of multiple sensor nodes, a sink node, a gateway, and a server. Each of the sensor nodes is equipped with a 3-axis AMR sensor and deployed in the center of a parking space. The sensor node reads its sensor values periodically and transmits the data to the sink node if the current and immediate past sensor values show a difference exceeding a threshold value. The operations of the sink and sensor nodes are described in detail along with flow diagrams. The protocol allows a low-duty cycle operation of the sensor nodes and a flexible adjustment of the threshold value used by the sensor nodes.

Keywords: car parking monitoring, sensor node, wireless sensor network, network protocol

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Authors: Sachin Jain, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia A. Bachour, Antonio P. Sanfilippo

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The future of solar energy in Qatar is evolving steadily. Hence, high-quality spatial solar radiation data is of the uttermost requirement for any planning and commissioning of solar technology. Generally, two types of solar radiation data are available: satellite data and ground observations. Satellite solar radiation data is developed by the physical and statistical model. Ground data is collected by solar radiation measurement stations. The ground data is of high quality. However, they are limited to distributed point locations with the high cost of installation and maintenance for the ground stations. On the other hand, satellite solar radiation data is continuous and available throughout geographical locations, but they are relatively less accurate than ground data. To utilize the advantage of both data, a product has been developed here which provides spatial continuity and higher accuracy than any of the data alone. The popular satellite databases: National Solar radiation Data Base, NSRDB (PSM V3 model, spatial resolution: 4 km) is chosen here for merging with ground-measured solar radiation measurement in Qatar. The spatial distribution of ground solar radiation measurement stations is comprehensive in Qatar, with a network of 13 ground stations. The monthly average of the daily total Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) component from ground and satellite data is used for error analysis. The normalized root means square error (NRMSE) values of 3.31%, 6.53%, and 6.63% for October, November, and December 2019 were observed respectively when comparing in-situ and NSRDB data. The method is based on the Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction model available in ArcGIS, ESRI. The workflow of the algorithm is based on the combination of regression and kriging methods. A regression model (OLS, ordinary least square) is fitted between the ground and NSBRD data points. A semi-variogram is fitted into the experimental semi-variogram obtained from the residuals. The kriging residuals obtained after fitting the semi-variogram model were added to NSRBD data predicted values obtained from the regression model to obtain the final predicted values. The NRMSE values obtained after merging are respectively 1.84%, 1.28%, and 1.81% for October, November, and December 2019. One more explanatory variable, that is the ground elevation, has been incorporated in the regression and kriging methods to reduce the error and to provide higher spatial resolution (30 m). The final GHI maps have been created after merging, and NRMSE values of 1.24%, 1.28%, and 1.28% have been observed for October, November, and December 2019, respectively. The proposed merging method has proven as a highly accurate method. An additional method is also proposed here to generate calibrated maps by using regression and kriging model and further to use the calibrated model to generate solar radiation maps from the explanatory variable only when not enough historical ground data is available for long-term analysis. The NRMSE values obtained after the comparison of the calibrated maps with ground data are 5.60% and 5.31% for November and December 2019 month respectively.

Keywords: global horizontal irradiation, GIS, empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction, NSRDB

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Authors: Kuen-Ming Shu, Cheng-Yu Chen

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A vibrating-fork sensor can measure the level height of solids and liquids and operates according to the principle that vibrations created by piezoelectric ceramics are transmitted to the vibrating fork, which produces resonance. When the vibrating fork touches an object, its resonance frequency changes and produces a signal that returns to a controller for immediate adjustment, so as to effectively monitor raw material loading. The design of the vibrating fork in a vibrating-fork material sensor is crucial. In this paper, ANSYS finite element analysis software is used to perform modal analysis on the vibrations of the vibrating fork. In addition, to design and produce a superior vibrating fork, the dimensions and welding shape of the vibrating fork are compared in a simulation performed using the Taguchi method.

Keywords: vibrating fork, piezoelectric ceramics, sound wave, ANSYS, Taguchi method, modal analysis

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Authors: Lisa Rudolfsson

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Socio-cognitive factors, such as social support and attribution of blame, influence the victim’s psychological adjustment after the abuse. Furthermore, the response from the person that the victim first confides to effect adjustment following the abuse. In Sweden, although police are investigating most of the reported cases of rape, very few rape-cases leads to trial and sentence. For many women who have been raped, contact with the police officer when reporting the crime will, therefore, be the most notable experience of how representatives for the Swedish society regard and handle what has happened. Hence, it seems urgent to gather information about these initial meetings. This study is part of a three-year research project, titled 'Female rape victims: Quality of initial police and medical care contact', funded by the Swedish Crime Victim and Support Authority. The focus of this study was on police officers in Sweden: their thoughts and experiences of meeting with raped women. Forthcoming are interviews with raped women about their experiences of meeting with police. Sixteen police officers participated in three focus groups and one interview. The participants consisted of five men and eleven women. Focus groups and interview were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. The material was analyzed using thematic analysis. Participants described how violence against women was not a priority in Swedish society or within the Police Authority. They talked about rape cases as a Sisyphean work-task that put high demands on them, while they also lacked training and support. They expressed a wish to offer the woman some kind of restoration, and they talked about their work as potentially making a difference for the woman – even if she did not get juridical justice. However, participants also described that they did not feel validated in their hard work. They talked about working rape cases as causing them a great deal of frustration - directed towards the Police Authority, the juridical system, colleagues, and sometimes towards the woman. Participants also described how meeting with raped women was a work that affected them in a personal manner. Listening to stories about sexual violence made the participants sad, and they described it as a struggle to understand. They described wondering how the woman’s life turned out and how they sometimes questioned if they had done enough. Some of the conclusions concern the lack of prerequisites needed for police officers to be able to offer a good-enough treatment of raped women, as well as the lack of tools needed for police officers to care for themselves. In lack of training, validation, and support, the knowledge of how to offer a good- enough treatment of raped women becomes a task learned by doing. Attempts to offer, if not legal justice, then at least some kind of restoration becomes a personal task, dependent on individual police officers. It seems urgent that we address the risk of police officers’ frustration building up to be detrimental for both the crime victim and the officer her/himself.

Keywords: focus groups, police, raped women, restoration

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Authors: Kaomud Tyagi, Rajasree Chakraborty, Shantanu Kundu, Devkant Singha, Kailash Chandra, Vikas Kumar

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The melon thrips, Thrips palmi is a serious pest of a wide range of agriculture crops and also act as vectors for plant viruses (genus Tospovirus, family Bunyaviridae). More molecular data on this species is required to understand the cryptic speciation and evolutionary affiliations. Mitochondrial genomes have been widely used in phylogenetic and evolutionary studies in insect. So far, mitogenomes of five thrips species (Anaphothrips obscurus, Frankliniella intonsa, Frankliniella occidentalis, Scirtothrips dorsalis and Thrips imaginis) is available in the GenBank database. In this study, we sequenced the first complete mitogenome T. palmi and compared it with available thrips mitogenomes. We assembled the mitogenome from the whole genome sequencing data generated using Illumina Hiseq2500. Annotation was performed using MITOS web-server to estimate the location of protein coding genes (PCGs), transfer RNA (tRNAs), ribosomal RNAs (rRNAs) and their secondary structures. The boundaries of PCGs and rRNAs was confirmed manually in NCBI. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using the 13 PCGs data using maximum likelihood (ML) in PAUP, and Bayesian inference (BI) in MrBayes 3.2. The complete mitogenome of T. palmi was 15,333 base pairs (bp), which was greater than the genomes of A. obscurus (14,890bp), F. intonsa (15,215 bp), F. occidentalis (14,889 bp) and S. dorsalis South Asia strain (SA1) (14,283 bp), but smaller than the genomes of T. imaginis (15,407 bp) and S. dorsalis East Asia strain (EA1) (15,343bp). Like in other thrips species, the mitochondrial genome of T. palmi was represented by 37 genes, including 13 PCGs, large and small ribosomal RNA (rrnL and rrnS) genes, 22 transfer RNA (tRNAs) genes (with one extra gene for trn-Serine) and two A+T-rich control regions (CR1 and CR2). Thirty one genes were observed on heavy (H) strand and six genes on the light (L) strand. The six tRNA genes (trnG,trnK, trnY, trnW, trnF, and trnH) were found to be conserved in all thrips species mitogenomes in their locations relative to a protein-coding or rRNA gene upstream or downstream. The gene arrangements of T. palmi is very close to T. imaginis except the rearrangements in tRNAs genes: trnR (arginine), and trnE (glutamic acid) were found to be located between cox3 and CR2 in T. imaginis which were translocated between atp6 and CR1 in T. palmi; trnL1 (Leucine) and trnS1(Serine) were located between atp6 and CR1 in T. imaginis which were translocated between cox3 and CR2 in T. palmi. The location of CR1 upstream of nad5 gene was suggested to be ancestral condition of the thrips species in subfamily Thripinae, was also observed in T. palmi. Both the Maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian Inference (BI) phylogenetic trees generated resulted in similar topologies. The T. palmi was clustered with T. imaginis. We concluded that more molecular data on the diverse thrips species from different hierarchical level is needed, to understand the phylogenetic and evolutionary relationships among them.

Keywords: thrips, comparative mitogenomics, gene rearrangements, phylogenetic analysis

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Authors: Ladan Maijama’a, Jibril D. Jiya, Ejike C. Anene

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This paper presents Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) based Variable Structure Position Control (VSPC) of Laboratory DC servomotor (LDCSM). DEA is employed for the optimal tuning of Variable Structure Control (VSC) parameters for position control of a DC servomotor. The VSC combines the techniques of Sliding Mode Control (SMC) that gives the advantages of small overshoot, improved step response characteristics, faster dynamic response and adaptability to plant parameter variations, suppressed influences of disturbances and uncertainties in system behavior. The results of the simulation responses of the VSC parameters adjustment by DEA were performed in Matlab Version 2010a platform and yield better dynamic performance compared with the untuned VSC designed.

Keywords: differential evolution algorithm, laboratory DC servomotor, sliding mode control, variable structure control

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Authors: S. Wesebaum, S. Willeke

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Production companies are faced with an increasingly turbulent business environment, which demands very high production volumes- and delivery date flexibility. If a decoupling by storage stages is not possible (e.g. at a contract manufacturing company) or undesirable from a logistical point of view, load scattering effects the production processes. ‘Load’ characterizes timing and quantity incidence of production orders (e.g. in work content hours) to workstations in the production, which results in specific capacity requirements. Insufficient coordination between load (demand capacity) and capacity supply results in heavy load scattering, which can be described by deviations and uncertainties in the input behavior of a capacity unit. In order to respond to fluctuating loads, companies try to implement consistent and realizable input behavior using the capacity supply available. For example, a uniform and high level of equipment capacity utilization keeps production costs down. In contrast, strong load scattering at workstations leads to performance loss or disproportionately fluctuating WIP, whereby the logistics objectives are affected negatively. Options for reducing load scattering are e.g. shifting the start and end dates of orders, batch splitting and outsourcing of operations or shifting to other workstations. This leads to an adjustment of load to capacity supply, and thus to a reduction of load scattering. If the adaptation of load to capacity cannot be satisfied completely, possibly flexible capacity must be used to ensure that the performance of a workstation does not decrease for a given load. Where the use of flexible capacities normally raises costs, an adjustment of load to capacity supply reduces load scattering and, in consequence, costs. In the literature you mostly find qualitative statements for describing load scattering. Quantitative evaluation methods that describe load mathematically are rare. In this article the authors discuss existing approaches for calculating load scattering and their various disadvantages such as lack of opportunity for normalization. These approaches are the basis for the development of our mathematical quantification approach for describing load scattering that compensates the disadvantages of the current quantification approaches. After presenting our mathematical quantification approach, the method of batch splitting will be described. Batch splitting allows the adaptation of load to capacity to reduce load scattering. After describing the method, it will be explicitly analyzed in the context of the logistic curve theory by Nyhuis using the stretch factor α1 in order to evaluate the impact of the method of batch splitting on load scattering and on logistic curves. The conclusion of this article will be to show how the methods and approaches presented can help companies in a turbulent environment to quantify the occurring work load scattering accurately and apply an efficient method for adjusting work load to capacity supply. In this way, the achievements of the logistical objectives are increased without causing additional costs.

Keywords: batch splitting, production logistics, production planning and control, quantification, load scattering

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Authors: Oduntan Kemi Olalekan

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Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa is still in its developing stage as its economy cannot be termed developed; it is still in search of economic policy that will positively affect the life of majority of her citizenry. Several policies have been employed to take care of the situation prominent among which is Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) of Babangida Administration but it could not rescue the economy. Non-interest Banking otherwise known as Islamic Banking has been suggested as a means of developing Nigerian economy as it will enable more Nigerian have access to working capital and contribute positively to the growth of her economy. The paper investigated the level of Nigeria economic development and gave an overview of economic policies since independence, traced the genesis of non-interest banking in Nigeria and made recommendations on the adoption of the policy as an antidote to Nigeria economic development.

Keywords: economic development, Nigerian economy, non-interest banking, working capital, Islamic banking.

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Authors: Fujio Takata

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When governments levy taxes on labor income on the basis of a balanced budget rule, two steady states in an economy exist, of which one can cause two movement patterns, namely, indeterminacy paths and a saddle path. However, in this paper, we assume an economy with divisible labor, in which labor adjustment is made by an intensive margin. We demonstrate that there indeed exist the two paths in the economy and that there exists a critical condition dividing them. This is proved by establishing the relationship between a finite elasticity of labor with regard to real wages and the share of capital in output. Consequently, we deduce the existence of an upper limit in the share of capital in output for indeterminacy to occur. The largest possible value of that share is less than 0.5698.

Keywords: balanced budget rule, divisible labor, labor income taxation, two movement patterns

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Nadeen Felemban, Hamsa Banjer, Rabaah Jaafari

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One of the most common hazards in the pharmaceutical industry is the chemical hazard, which can cause harm or develop occupational health diseases/illnesses due to chronic exposures to hazardous substances. Therefore, a chemical agent management system is required, including hazard identification, risk assessment, controls for specific hazards and inspections, to keep your workplace healthy and safe. However, routine management monitoring is also required to verify the effectiveness of the control measures. Moreover, Betamethasone Valerate and Clobetasol Propionate are some of the APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) with highly hazardous classification-Occupational Hazard Category (OHC 4), which requires a full containment (ECA-D) during handling to avoid chemical exposure. According to Safety Data Sheet, those chemicals are reproductive toxicants (reprotoxicant H360D), which may affect female workers’ health and cause fatal damage to an unborn child, or impair fertility. In this study, qualitative (chemical Risk assessment-qCRA) was conducted to assess the chemical exposure during handling of Betamethasone Valerate and Clobetasol Propionate in pharmaceutical laboratories. The outcomes of qCRA identified that there is a risk of potential chemical exposure (risk rating 8 Amber risk). Therefore, immediate actions were taken to ensure interim controls (according to the Hierarchy of controls) are in place and in use to minimize the risk of chemical exposure. No open handlings should be done out of the Steroid Glove Box Isolator (SGB) with the required Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs). The PPEs include coverall, nitrile hand gloves, safety shoes and powered air-purifying respirators (PAPR). Furthermore, a quantitative assessment (personal air sampling) was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the engineering controls (SGB Isolator) and to confirm if there is chemical exposure, as indicated earlier by qCRA. Three personal air samples were collected using an air sampling pump and filter (IOM2 filters, 25mm glass fiber media). The collected samples were analyzed by HPLC in the BV lab, and the measured concentrations were reported in (ug/m3) with reference to Occupation Exposure Limits, 8hr OELs (8hr TWA) for each analytic. The analytical results are needed in 8hr TWA (8hr Time-weighted Average) to be analyzed using Bayesian statistics (IHDataAnalyst). The results of the Bayesian Likelihood Graph indicate (category 0), which means Exposures are de "minimus," trivial, or non-existent Employees have little to no exposure. Also, these results indicate that the 3 samplings are representative samplings with very low variations (SD=0.0014). In conclusion, the engineering controls were effective in protecting the operators from such exposure. However, routine chemical monitoring is required every 3 years unless there is a change in the processor type of chemicals. Also, frequent management monitoring (daily, weekly, and monthly) is required to ensure the control measures are in place and in use. Furthermore, a Similar Exposure Group (SEG) was identified in this activity and included in the annual health surveillance for health monitoring.

Keywords: occupational health and safety, risk assessment, chemical exposure, hierarchy of control, reproductive

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Authors: Shawn P. Daly

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Communities heavily engaged in the tourism industry discover their values intersect, meld, and conflict with those of visitors. Maintaining cultural integrity in the face of powerful external pressures causes stress among society members. This effect represents a less studied aspect of sustainable tourism. The present paper brings a perspective unique to the tourism literature: biculturalism. The grounded theories, coherent hypotheses, and validated constructs and indicators of biculturalism represent a sound base from which to consider sociocultural issues in sustainable tourism. Five models describe the psychological state of individuals operating at cultural crossroads: assimilation (joining the new culture), acculturation (grasping the new culture but remaining of the original culture), alternation (varying behavior to cultural context), multicultural (maintaining distinct cultures), and fusion (blending cultures). These five processes divide into two units of analysis (individual and society), permitting research questions at levels important for considering sociocultural sustainability. Acculturation modelling has morphed into dual processes of acculturation (new culture adaptation) and enculturation (original culture adaptation). This dichotomy divides sustainability research questions into human impacts from assimilation (acquiring new culture, throwing away original), separation (rejecting new culture, keeping original), integration (acquiring new culture, keeping original), and marginalization (rejecting new culture, throwing away original). Biculturalism is often cast in terms of its emotional, behavioral, and cognitive dimensions. Required cultural adjustments and varying levels of cultural competence lead to physical, psychological, and emotional outcomes, including depression, lowered life satisfaction and self-esteem, headaches, and back pain—or enhanced career success, social skills, and life styles. Numerous studies provide empirical scales and research hypotheses for sustainability research into tourism’s causality and effect on local well-being. One key issue in applying biculturalism to sustainability scholarship concerns identification and specification of the alternative new culture contacting local culture. Evidence exists for tourism industry, universal tourist, and location/event-specific tourist culture. The biculturalism paradigm holds promise for researchers examining evolving cultural identity and integrity in response to mass tourism. In particular, confirmed constructs and scales simplify operationalization of tourism sustainability studies in terms of human impact and adjustment.

Keywords: biculturalism, cultural integrity, psychological and sociocultural adjustment, tourist culture

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Authors: Benchamat Laksaniyanon, Padcharee Phasuk, Rungtawan Boonphanakan

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With globalization, organizations had to adjust to an unstable environment in order to survive in a competitive arena. Typically within the field of management, different types of organizations include mechanistic, bureaucratic and organic ones. In fact, bureaucratic and mechanistic organizations have some characteristics in common. Bureaucracy is one type of Thailand organization which adapted from mechanistic concept to develop an organization that is suitable for the characteristic and culture of Thailand. The objective of this study is to compare the adjustment strategies of both organizations in order to find key performance indicators (KPI) suitable for improving organization in Thailand. The methodology employed is binary logistic regression. The results of this study will be valuable for developing future management strategies for both bureaucratic and mechanistic organizations.

Keywords: mechanistic, bureaucratic and organic organization, binary logistic regression, key performance indicators (KPI)

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Authors: Tanmay Raj, Vedika Gupta

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For its groundbreaking and substantial power, cloud computing is today’s most popular breakthrough. It is a sort of Internet-based computing that allows users to request and receive numerous services in a cost-effective manner. Virtualization, grid computing, and utility computing are the most widely employed emerging technologies in cloud computing, making it the most powerful. However, cloud computing still has a number of key challenges, such as security, load balancing, and non-critical failure adaption, to name a few. The massive growth of cloud computing will put an undue strain on servers. As a result, network performance will deteriorate. A good load balancing adjustment can make cloud computing more productive and in- crease client fulfillment execution. Load balancing is an important part of cloud computing because it prevents certain nodes from being overwhelmed while others are idle or have little work to perform. Response time, cost, throughput, performance, and resource usage are all parameters that may be improved using load balancing.

Keywords: cloud computing, load balancing, computing, SIP server clusters

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Authors: Asma Ben Yaghlane, Mohamed Naceur Azaiez

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In this paper, we briefly introduce the concept of Poisson attacks in the case of defense/attack strategies where attacks are assumed to be continuous. We suggest a game model in which the attacker will combine both criteria of a sufficient confidence level of a successful attack and a reasonably small size of the estimation error in order to launch an attack. Here, estimation error arises from assessing the system failure upon attack using aggregate data at the system level. The corresponding error is referred to as aggregation error. On the other hand, the defender will attempt to deter attack by making one or both criteria inapplicable. The defender will build his/her strategy by both strengthening the targeted system and increasing the size of error. We will formulate the defender problem based on appropriate optimization models. The attacker will opt for a Bayesian updating in assessing the impact on the improvement made by the defender. Then, the attacker will evaluate the feasibility of the attack before making the decision of whether or not to launch it. We will provide illustrations to better explain the process.

Keywords: attacker, defender, game theory, information

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Authors: DEVASHISH KHULBE, MANU PATHAK

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The rise in popularity of major social media platforms have enabled people to share photos and textual information about their daily life. One of the popular topics about which information is shared is food. Since a lot of media about food are attributed to particular locations and restaurants, information like spatio-temporal popularity of various cuisines can be analyzed. Tracking the popularity of food types and retail locations across space and time can also be useful for business owners and restaurant investors. In this work, we present an approach using off-the shelf machine learning techniques to identify trends and popularity of cuisine types in an area using geo-tagged data from social media, Google images and Yelp. After adjusting for time, we use the Kernel Density Estimation to get hot spots across the location and model the dependencies among food cuisines popularity using Bayesian Networks. We consider the Manhattan borough of New York City as the location for our analyses but the approach can be used for any area with social media data and information about retail businesses.

Keywords: Web Mining, Geographic Information Systems, Business popularity, Spatial Data Analyses

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Authors: Sorin Valcan, Mihail Gaianu

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Labeling is a very costly and time consuming process which aims to generate datasets for training neural networks in several functionalities and projects. For driver monitoring system projects, the need for labeled images has a significant impact on the budget and distribution of effort. This paper presents the modifications done to an algorithm used for the generation of ground truth data for 2D eyes location on infrared images with drivers in order to improve the quality of the data and performance of the trained neural networks. The algorithm restrictions become tougher, which makes it more accurate but also less constant. The resulting dataset becomes smaller and shall not be altered by any kind of manual label adjustment before being used in the neural networks training process. These changes resulted in a much better performance of the trained neural networks.

Keywords: labeling automation, infrared camera, driver monitoring, eye detection, convolutional neural networks

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Authors: A. O. Boyo, A. T. Akinwunmi

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The effect of extracting solvent and adjustment of pHs on the stability of Terminalia catappa L. dye-sensitized solar cell was investigated. We introduced ZnO as an alternative to TiO2 in the dye sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) due to its band gap similar to TiO2, higher electron mobility, and flexible procedures of preparations. Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) based on Terminalia catappa L. was extracted in water (A), ethanol (B) and the mixture of ethanol and water in the ratio 1:1by volume (C). The best performance Solar cells sensitized was from extracts A and achieved up to Jsc 1.51 mAcm−2, Voc 0.75V, FF 0.88 and η 0.63%. We notice that as pHs decreases there is the increase in DSSC efficiency. There is Long period stability in efficiency of the cells prepared using A than in C and a fair stability in efficiency of B cell. The results obtained with extracts B and C confirmed that Ethanol with water could not be considered as a suitable solvent for the extraction of natural dye.

Keywords: zinc oxide, dye-sensitized solar cell, terminalia catappa L., TiO2

Procedia PDF Downloads 376