Search results for: sustainable business model

Authors: Kannapha Amaruchkul

Abstract:

We formulate a dynamic overbooking model for a tour operator, in which most reservations contain at least two people. The cancellation rate and the timing of the cancellation may depend on the group size. We propose two overbooking policies, namely economic- and service-based. In an economic-based policy, we want to minimize the expected oversold and underused cost, whereas, in a service-based policy, we ensure that the probability of an oversold situation does not exceed the pre-specified threshold. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we use tour package data in 2016-2018 from a tour operator in Thailand to build a data-driven robust optimization model, and we tested the proposed overbooking policy in 2019. We also compare the data-driven approach to the conventional approach of fitting data into a probability distribution.

Keywords: applied stochastic model, data-driven robust optimization, overbooking, revenue management, tour operator

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Olga Novitskaya

Abstract:

The emerging markets of post-USSR countries have attracted Western multinational companies; however, weak institutions and unstable host country environments have hindered the implementation of successful management practices. The Ukrainian market, in light of recent events, is particularly interesting to study for its compatibility with Western businesses. This paper focuses on factors that can facilitate or inhibit the transfer of human resource management practices from Western headquarters to Ukrainian subsidiaries. To explain the national context’s effects better, a business systems approach has been applied to a qualitative study of 16 wholly owned Western subsidiaries, dissecting the reasons for a weak integration of Western practices in Ukraine. Results show that underdeveloped institutions have forced companies to develop additional practices that compensate for national weaknesses, as well as to adjust to a constantly changing environment. Flexibility and local responsiveness were observed as vital for success in Ukraine.

Keywords: human resource management, Ukraine, business system, multinational companies, HR practices

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Kingkan Pongsiri

Abstract:

This paper aims to study the role and activities of the participants and the impact of activities created in the local area in order to sustainably develop the local areas. This study applied both qualitative and quantitative approaches presented in descriptive style; the data was collected via survey, observation and in-depth interviews with samples. The results illustrated five sorts of roles of participants of the Cicada Walking-street and four types of creative activities; recreation based, art based, cultural based, and live events. Integration of local characteristics, arts and cultures were presented creatively and interestingly. Participants are various. The roles of the participants found in the Cicada Market are group of the property and area management, entrepreneurs, leisure (entertaining persons), local people, and tourists. The good impacts on local communities are those in terms of economy, environmental friendly and local arts and cultures promoting. On the other hand, the traffic congestion, waste and the increasing of energy consumption are negative impacts from area development.

Keywords: creative tourism activity, destination development, sustainable development, walking street

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

Abstract:

This paper is mapping air quality model to engineering the industrial system that ultimately utilized in extensive range of energy systems, distribution resources, and end-user technologies. The model is determining long-range transport patterns contribution as area source can either traced from 48 hrs backward trajectory model or remotely described from background measurements data in those days. The trajectory model will be run within stable conditions and quite constant parameters of the atmospheric pressure at the most time of the year. Air parcel trajectory is necessary for estimating the long-range transport of pollutants and other chemical species. It provides a better understanding of airflow patterns. Since a large amount of meteorological data and a great number of calculations are required to drive trajectory, it will be very useful to apply HYPSLIT model to locate areas and boundaries influence air quality at regional location of Windsor. 2–days backward trajectories model at high and low concentration measurements below and upward the benchmark which was areas influence air quality measurement levels. The benchmark level will be considered as 30 (μg/m3) as the moderate level for Ontario region. Thereby, air quality model is incorporating a midpoint concept between biotic and abiotic components to broaden the scope of quantification impact. The later outcomes’ theories of environmental obligation suggest either a recommendation or a decision of what is a legislative should be achieved in mitigation measures of air emission impact ultimately.

Keywords: air quality, management systems, environmental impact assessment, industrial ecology, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Paul Saah, Charles Mbohwa, Nelson Sizwe Madonsela

Abstract:

Organisations that want to have a competitive edge over their rivals in their industry are becoming more and more aware of the value of staff training and development programs. This conceptual study's primary goal is to determine how staff development and training affect an organization's ability to succeed. A non-empirical methodological approach was chosen because this was a conceptual study, and a thorough literature analysis was conducted to determine the contribution of staff training and development to the performance of a commercial organization. Twenty of the 100 publications about employee training and development that were obtained from Google Scholar and regarded to be more pertinent were examined for this study. The impact of employee training and development in an organization was found and documented during the analyses. According to the study's findings, some of the major advantages of staff development and training include greater productivity, the discovery of employee potential, job satisfaction, the development of skills, less supervision, a decrease in turnover and absenteeism as well as less supervision and reduction of errors and accidents. The findings show that organisations that make significant investments in the training and development of their personnel are more likely to succeed than those who do not.

Keywords: impact, employment, training and development, success, business, organization

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Okolie Chukwulozie Paul, Iwenofu Chinwe Onyedika, Sinebe Jude Ebieladoh, M. C. Nwosu

Abstract:

The research work is based on the statistical analysis of the processing data. The essence is to analyze the data statistically and to generate a design model for the production mix of soap manufacturing products in Bejoy manufacturing company Nkpologwu, Aguata Local Government Area, Anambra state, Nigeria. The statistical analysis shows the statistical analysis and the correlation of the data. T test, Partial correlation and bi-variate correlation were used to understand what the data portrays. The design model developed was used to model the data production yield and the correlation of the variables show that the R2 is 98.7%. However, the results confirm that the data is fit for further analysis and modeling. This was proved by the correlation and the R-squared.

Keywords: General Linear Model, correlation, variables, pearson, significance, T-test, soap, production mix and statistic

Procedia PDF Downloads 451

Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

Abstract:

Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Kebron Asnake

Abstract:

Water security and transboundary issues are critical concerns for countries, particularly in regions where shared water resources are significant. This Research focuses on exploring the challenges and opportunities related to water security and transboundary issues in Ethiopia, using the case of the Nile River. Ethiopia, as a riparian country of the Nile River, faces complex water security issues due to its dependence on this transboundary water resource. This abstract aims to analyze the various factors that affect water security in Ethiopia, including population growth, climate change, and competing water demands. The Study examines the challenges linked to transboundary water management of the Nile River. It delves into the complexities of negotiating water allocations and addressing potential conflicts among the downstream riparian countries. The paper also discusses the role of international agreements and cooperation in promoting sustainable water resource management. Additionally, the paper highlights the opportunities for collaboration and sustainable development that arise from transboundary water management. It explores the potential for joint investments in water infrastructure, hydropower generation, and irrigation systems that can contribute to regional economic growth and water security. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the need for integrated water management approaches in Ethiopia to ensure the equitable and sustainable use of the Nile River's waters. It highlights the importance of involving stakeholders from diverse sectors, including agriculture, energy, and environmental conservation, in decision-making processes. By presenting the case of the Nile River in Ethiopia, this Abstract contributes to the understanding of water security and transboundary issues. It underscores the significance of regional cooperation and informed policy-making to address the challenges and opportunities presented by transboundary water resources. The paper serves as a foundation for further research and policy in water management in Ethiopia and other regions facing similar challenges.

Keywords: water, health, agriculture, medicine

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Chandra Prayaga, Aaron Wade, Lakshmi Prayaga, Gopi Shankar Mallu

Abstract:

This paper presents the use of machine learning algorithms to predict the success of students in an introductory physics course. Data having 140 rows pertaining to the performance of two batches of students was used. The lack of sufficient data to train robust machine learning models was compensated for by generating synthetic data similar to the real data. CTGAN and CTGAN with Gaussian Copula (Gaussian) were used to generate synthetic data, with the real data as input. To check the similarity between the real data and each synthetic dataset, pair plots were made. The synthetic data was used to train machine learning models using the PyCaret package. For the CTGAN data, the Ada Boost Classifier (ADA) was found to be the ML model with the best fit, whereas the CTGAN with Gaussian Copula yielded Logistic Regression (LR) as the best model. Both models were then tested for accuracy with the real data. ROC-AUC analysis was performed for all the ten classes of the target variable (Grades A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D, F). The ADA model with CTGAN data showed a mean AUC score of 0.4377, but the LR model with the Gaussian data showed a mean AUC score of 0.6149. ROC-AUC plots were obtained for each Grade value separately. The LR model with Gaussian data showed consistently better AUC scores compared to the ADA model with CTGAN data, except in two cases of the Grade value, C- and A-.

Keywords: machine learning, student success, physics course, grades, synthetic data, CTGAN, gaussian copula CTGAN

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: Jatuphum Ketchatturat

Abstract:

Value-added assessment has been used for developing the model of monitoring and evaluation of student's learning achievement. The steps of model development consist of 1) study and analyisis of the school and the district report system of student achievement and progress, 2) collecting the data of student achievement to develop the value added indicator, 3) developing the system of value-added assessment by participatory action research approach, 4) putting the system of value-added assessment into the educational district of secondary school, 5) determining the quality of the developed system of value-added assessment. The components of the developed model consist of 1) the database of value-added assessment of student's learning achievement, 2) the process of monitoring and evaluation the student's learning achievement, and 3) the reporting system of value-added assessment of student's learning achievement.

Keywords: learning achievement, monitoring and evaluation, value-added assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 431

Authors: Turuganti Venkateswarlu, Jagadeesh Anmala

Abstract:

Excessive runoffs from various non-point source land uses, and other point sources are rapidly contaminating the water quality of streams in the Upper Green River watershed, Kentucky, USA. It is essential to maintain the stream water quality as the river basin is one of the major freshwater sources in this province. It is also important to understand the water quality parameters (WQPs) quantitatively and qualitatively along with their important features as stream water is sensitive to climatic events and land-use practices. In this paper, a model was developed for predicting one of the significant WQPs, Fecal Coliform (FC) from precipitation, temperature, urban land use factor (ULUF), agricultural land use factor (ALUF), and forest land-use factor (FLUF) using Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model, a novel ensemble learning algorithm, can even find out advanced feature importance characteristics from the given model inputs for different combinations. This model’s outcomes showed a good correlation between FC and climate events and land use factors (R2 = 0.94) and precipitation and temperature are the primary influencing factors for FC.

Keywords: water quality, land use factors, random forest, fecal coliform

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Timothy Whitehill

Abstract:

This paper presents an innovative chat-based focus group method for collecting qualitative data to construct a cause-and-effect analysis in business research. This method was developed in response to the research and data collection challenges faced by the Covid-19 outbreak in the United Kingdom during 2020-21. This paper discusses the methodological approaches and builds a contemporary argument for its effectiveness in exploring cause-and-effect relationships in the context of focus group research, systems thinking and problem structuring methods. The pilot for this method was conducted between October 2020 and March 2021 and collected more than 7,000 words of chat-based data which was used to construct a consensus drawn cause-and-effect analysis. This method was developed in support of an ongoing Doctorate in Business Administration (DBA) thesis, which is using Design Science Research methodology to operationalize organisational resilience in UK construction sector firms.

Keywords: cause-and-effect analysis, focus group research, problem structuring methods, qualitative research, systems thinking

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Xiongxiong You, Zhanwen Niu

Abstract:

Choosing an appropriate surrogate model plays an important role in surrogates-assisted evolutionary algorithms (SAEAs) since there are many types and different kernel functions in the surrogate model. In this paper, an adaptive selection of the best suitable surrogate model method is proposed to solve different kinds of expensive optimization problems. Firstly, according to the prediction residual error sum of square (PRESS) and different model selection strategies, the excellent individual surrogate models are integrated into multiple ensemble models in each generation. Then, based on the minimum root of mean square error (RMSE), the best suitable surrogate model is selected dynamically. Secondly, two methods with dynamic number of models and selection strategies are designed, which are used to show the influence of the number of individual models and selection strategy. Finally, some compared studies are made to deal with several commonly used benchmark problems, as well as a rotor system optimization problem. The results demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method.

Keywords: adaptive selection, expensive optimization, rotor system, surrogates assisted evolutionary algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: E. Benga, T. Tengen, A. Alugongo

Abstract:

Periodic and continuous inventory models are the two classical management tools used to handle inventories. These models have advantages and disadvantages. The implementation of both continuous (r,Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models in most manufacturing plants comes with higher cost. Such high inventory costs are due to the fact that most manufacturing plants are not flexible enough. Since demand and lead-time are two important variables of every inventory models, their effect on the flexibility of the manufacturing plant matter most. Unfortunately, these effects are not clearly understood by managers. The reason is that the decision parameters of the continuous (r, Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models are not designed to effectively deal with the issues of uncertainties such as poor manufacturing performances, delivery performance supplies performances. There is, therefore, a need to come up with a predictive and hybrid inventory model that can combine in some sense the feature of the aforementioned inventory models. A linear combination technique is used to hybridize both continuous (r, Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models. The behavior of such hybrid inventory model is described by a differential equation and then optimized. From the results obtained after simulation, the continuous (r, Q) inventory model is more effective than the periodic (R, S) inventory models in the short run, but this difference changes as time goes by. Because the hybrid inventory model is more cost effective than the continuous (r,Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models in long run, it should be implemented for strategic decisions.

Keywords: periodic inventory, continuous inventory, hybrid inventory, optimization, manufacturing plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Duplan Yves Jamont Junior

Abstract:

The Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model widely used in labor economics is tailored to fishery. By this way, a fishing function is defined to depict the fishing technology, and Bellman equations are established to describe the behaviors of fishermen and conservationists. On this basis, a negotiation takes place as a Nash-bargaining over the upper limit of the fishing pressure between both political representative groups of fishermen and conservationists. The existence and uniqueness conditions of the Nash-bargained fishing pressure are established. Given the biomass evolution equation, the dynamics of the model variables (fishing pressure, biomass, fish need) is studied.

Keywords: conservation, fishery, fishing, Nash bargaining

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Farokh Alipour, Ali Falavand, Neda Beit Saeid

Abstract:

The calculation of the effect of accidental releases of flammable materials such as LNG requires the use of a suitable consequence model. This study is due to providing a planning advice for developments in the vicinity of LNG sites and other sites handling flammable materials. In this paper, an applicable algorithm that is able to model pool fires on water is presented and applied to estimate pool fire damage zone. This procedure can be used to model pool fires on land and could be helpful in consequence modeling and domino effect zone measurements of flammable materials which is needed in site selection and plant layout.

Keywords: LNG, pool fire, spill, radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 409

Authors: Ali Elshabrawy

Abstract:

Cloud computing is expected to be important for e Government in near future. Governments need it for solving some of its e Government, financial, infrastructure, legacy systems and integration problems. It reduces information technology (IT) infrastructure needs and support costs, and offers on-demand infrastructure and computational power, improved collaboration capabilities, which are important for e Government projects start up and sustainability. Budget pressures will continue to drive more and more government IT to hybrid and even public clouds, and more cooperation between cloud service providers and governmental agencies are expected, Or developing governmental private, community clouds. Motivation to convince governments to use cloud computing services, will create a pressure on cloud service providers to cope with government's requirements for interoperability, security standards, open data and integration between their cloud systems There will be significant legal action arising out of governmental uses of cloud computing, and legislation addressing both IT and business needs and consumer fears and protections. Cloud computing is a considered a revolution for IT and E business in general and e commerce, e Government in particular. As governments faces increasing challenges regarding IT infrastructure required for e Government projects implementation. As a result of Lack of required financial resources allocated for e Government projects in developed and developing countries. Cloud computing can play a major role to solve some of e Government projects challenges such as, lack of financial resources, IT infrastructure, Human resources trained to manage e Government applications, interoperability, cost efficiency challenges. If we could solve some security issues related to cloud computing usage which considered critical for e Government projects. Pretty sure it’s Just a matter of time before cloud service providers will find out solutions to attract governments as major customers for their business.

Keywords: cloud computing, e-government, adoption, supply side barriers, e-government requirements, challenges

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Samindi Samarakoon, Ørjan Sletbakk Vie, Remi Kleiven Fjelldal

Abstract:

White concrete facade elements are widely used in construction industry. It is challenging to achieve the desired workability in casting of white concrete elements. Particle Matrix model was used for proportioning the self-compacting white concrete (SCWC) to control segregation and bleeding and to improve workability. The paper presents how to reach the target slump flow while controlling bleeding and segregation in SCWC. The amount of aggregates, binders and mixing water, as well as type and dosage of superplasticizer (SP) to be used are the major factors influencing the properties of SCWC. Slump flow and compressive strength tests were carried out to examine the performance of SCWC, and the results indicate that the particle matrix model could produce successfully SCWC controlling segregation and bleeding.

Keywords: white concrete, particle matrix model, mix design, construction industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: M. Khalid, W. Rashmi, L. L. Kwan

Abstract:

This work provides an overview on the experimental and numerical simulations of various nanofluids and their flow and heat transfer behavior. It was further extended to study the effect of nanoparticle concentration, fluid flow rates and thermo-physical properties on the heat transfer enhancement of Al2O3/water nanofluid in a turbulent flow circular conduit using ANSYS FLUENT™ 14.0. Single-phase approximation (homogeneous model) and two-phase (mixture and Eulerian) models were used to simulate the nanofluid flow behavior in the 3-D horizontal pipe. The numerical results were further validated with experimental correlations reported in the literature. It was found that heat transfer of nanofluids increases with increasing particle volume concentration and Reynolds number, respectively. Results showed good agreement (~9% deviation) with the experimental correlations, especially for a single-phase model with constant properties. Among two-phase models, mixture model (~14% deviation) showed better prediction compared to Eulerian-dispersed model (~18% deviation) when temperature independent properties were used. Non-drag forces were also employed in the Eulerian two-phase model. However, the two-phase mixture model with temperature dependent nanofluid properties gave slightly closer agreement (~12% deviation).

Keywords: nanofluid, CFD, heat transfer, forced convection, circular conduit

Procedia PDF Downloads 525

Authors: Nasser Almonawer

Abstract:

Timely reaction to an evolving global business environment and volatile market conditions necessitates system and process flexibility, which in turn demands agile and adaptable architecture and a steady infusion of affordable new technologies. On the contrary, a large number of organizations utilize systems characterized by inflexible and obsolete legacy architectures. To effectively respond to the dynamic contemporary business environments, such architectures must be migrated to robust and modular open architectures. To this end, this paper proposes an integrated decision support system for a seamless migration to open systems. The proposed decision support system (DSS) integrates three well-established quantitative and qualitative decision-making models—namely, the Delphi method, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Goal Programming (GP) to (1) assess risks and establish evaluation criteria; (2) formulate migration strategy and rank candidate systems; and (3) allocate resources among the selected systems.

Keywords: decision support systems, open systems architecture, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), goal programming (GP), delphi method

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

Abstract:

In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

Abstract:

Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 468

Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

Abstract:

The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Pei-Chun Lee, Sheng-Shih Wang, Pei-Hsuan Ku

Abstract:

Many existing amusement parks have been operated with assistance of a variety of information and communications technologies to design friendly and efficient service systems for tourists. However, these systems leave various levels of decisions to tourists to make by themselves. This incurs pressure on tourists and thereby bringing negative experience in their tour. This paper proposes a smart amusement park system to offer each tourist the GPS-based customized plan without tourists making decisions by themselves. The proposed system consists of the mobile app subsystem, the central subsystem, and the detecting/counting subsystem. The mobile app subsystem interacts with the central subsystem. The central subsystem performs the necessary computing and database management of the proposed system. The detecting/counting subsystem aims to detect and compute the number of visitors to an attraction. Experimental results show that the proposed system can not only work well, but also provide an innovative business operating model for owners of amusement parks.

Keywords: amusement park, location-based service, LBS, mobile app, tourist service

Procedia PDF Downloads 515

Authors: Michelle Zeyuan Ma, Hermann Heilmeier

Abstract:

Recently, meat production ecosystem impacts initiated many hot discussions and researchers, and it is a difficult implementation to reduce such impacts due to the demand of meat products. It calls for better management and control of ecosystem impacts from every aspects of meat production. This article analyzes the ecosystem impacts of meat production based on meat products life cycle. The analysis shows that considerable ecosystem impacts are caused by different meat production steps: initial establishment phase, animal raising, slaughterhouse processing, meat consumption, and wastes management. Based on this analysis, the impacts are summarized as: leading factor for biodiversity loss; water waste, land use waste and land degradation; greenhouse gases emissions; pollution to air, water, and soil; related major diseases. The article also provides a discussion on a solution-sustainable food system, which could help in reducing ecosystem impacts. The analysis method is based on the life cycle level, it provides a concept of the whole meat industry ecosystem impacts, and the analysis result could be useful to manage or control meat production ecosystem impacts from investor, producer and consumer sides.

Keywords: eutrophication, life cycle based analysis, sustainable food, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

Abstract:

Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control promulgated by Shewhart in the years 30, and on the principles of PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act) developed by Deming and Juran. Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models includes COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them based on points of reflection and analysis done by some authors. Almost all limitations are related to the mechanistic and reductionist approach of the principles over those models are built. As Systems Theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises from as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of an organization, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, maturity model, systems theory, viable system model

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Pram Abhayawardhana, Ali Reza Nazmi, Hossein Najaf Zadeh

Abstract:

This study examines the use of additive manufacturing (AM) to develop sustainable and intelligent agricultural formulations that can gradually release fertilisers. AM offers the ability to design customised formulations with precise geometries and controlled release properties while taking into account their mechanical, chemical, and environmental properties. The study specifically investigates the use of an aerogel matrix mixed with a potential fertiliser in agriculture. Highly porous 3D printed aerogel structures were designed to enable the slow release of fertilisers. The performance of the formulated mixture is evaluated against other commonly used materials for slow-release applications. The findings suggest that the 3D printed gel made has great potential for slow-release fertilisers, providing an environmentally friendly solution for agricultural practices. The combination of AM technology and sustainable materials can play a vital role in mitigating the negative environmental impact of traditional fertilisers, as well as improving the efficiency and sustainability of agricultural production.

Keywords: 3D printing, hydrogel, aerogel, fertiliser, agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Dimpy Shah

Abstract:

The global economy has substantially changed in last three decades. Now almost all markets are transparent and visible for global customers. The corporates are now no more reliant on local markets for trade. The information technology revolution has changed business dynamics and marketing practices of corporate. The markets are divided into two different formats: traditional and virtual. In very short span of time, many e-commerce portals have captured global market. This strategy is well supported by global delivery system of multinational logistic companies. Now the markets are dealing with global supply chain networks, which are more demand driven and customer oriented. The corporate have realized importance of supply chain integration and marketing in this competitive environment. The Indian markets are also significantly affected with all these changes. In terms of population, India is in second place after China. In terms of demography, almost half of the population is of youth. It has been observed that the Indian youth are more inclined towards e-commerce and prefer to buy goods from web portal. Initially, this trend was observed in Indian service sector, textile and electronic goods and now further extended in other product categories. The FMCG companies have also recognized this change and started integration of their supply chain with e-commerce platform. This paper attempts to understand contemporary marketing practices of corporate in e-commerce business in Indian food and beverages segment and also tries to identify innovative marketing practices for proper execution of their strategies. The findings are mainly focused on supply chain re-integration and brand building strategies with proper utilization of social media.

Keywords: FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods), ISCM (Integrated supply chain management), RFID (Radio Frequency Identification), traditional and virtual formats

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Sedigheh Kalantari

Abstract:

Like many countries in the arid and semi-arid belt, Iran experiences a natural limitation in the availability of water resources. However, rapid socioeconomic development has created a serious water crisis in a nation that was once one of the world’s pioneers in sustainable water management, due to the Persians’ contribution to hydraulic engineering inventions – the Qanat – throughout history. The exogenous issues like the changing climate, frequent droughts, and international sanctions are only crisis catalyzers, not the main cause of the water crisis; and a resilient water management system is expected to be capable of coping with these periodic external pressures. The current dramatic water security issues in Iran are rooted in managerial, political, and institutional challenges rather than engineering and technical issues, and the country is suffering from challenges in water governance. The country, instead of rigorous water conservation efforts, is still focused on supply-driven approach, technology and centralized methods, and structural solutions that aim to increase water supply; while the effectiveness of water governance and management has often left unused. To solve these issues, it is necessary to assess the present situation and its evolution over time. In this respect, establishing water governance assessment mechanisms will be a significant aspect of this paper. The research framework, however, is a conceptual framework to assess governance performance of Iran to critically diagnose problematic issues and areas, as well as proffer empirically based solutions and determine the best possible steps towards transformational processes. This concept aims to measure the adequacy of current solutions and strategies designed to ameliorate these problems and then develop and prescribe adequate futuristic solutions. Thus, the analytical framework developed in this paper seeks to provide insights on key factors influencing water governance in Iranian cities, institutional frameworks to manage water across scales and authorities, multi-level management gaps and policy responses, through an evidence-based approach and good practices to drive reform toward sustainability and water resource conservation. The findings of this paper show that the current structure of the water governance system in Iran, coupled with the lack of a comprehensive understanding of the root causes of the problem, leaves minimal hope for developing sustainable solutions to Iran’s increasing water crisis. In order to follow sustainable development approaches, Iran needs to replace symptom management with problem prevention.

Keywords: governance, Iran, sustainable development, water management, water resources

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Nitin Ghule, S. G. Taji

Abstract:

A mathematical model of hot-wall condensers used in refrigerators is presented. The model predicts the heat transfer characteristics of condenser and the effects of various design and operating parameters on condenser tube length and capacity. A finite element approach was used to model the condenser. The condenser tube is divided into elemental units, with each element consisting of adhesive tape, refrigerant tube and outer metal sheet. The heat transfer characteristics of each section are then analyzed by considering the heat transfer through the tube wall, tape and the outer sheet. Variations in inner heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop are considered depending on temperature, fluid phase, type of flow and orientation of tube. Variation in outer heat transfer coefficient is also taken into account. Various materials were analysed for the tube, tape and outer sheet.

Keywords: condenser, domestic refrigerator, heat transfer, mathematical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 456