Search results for: random evolution

Authors: Ibrahim Rassoul, A. Serir, E-K. Si Ahmed, J. Legrand

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The acronym PEM refers to Proton Exchange Membrane or alternatively Polymer Electrolyte Membrane. Due to its high efficiency, low operating temperature (30–80 °C), and rapid evolution over the past decade, PEMFCs are increasingly emerging as a viable alternative clean power source for automobile and stationary applications. Before PEMFCs can be employed to power automobiles and homes, several key technical challenges must be properly addressed. One technical challenge is elucidating the mechanisms underlying water transport in and removal from PEMFCs. On one hand, sufficient water is needed in the polymer electrolyte membrane or PEM to maintain sufficiently high proton conductivity. On the other hand, too much liquid water present in the cathode can cause “flooding” (that is, pore space is filled with excessive liquid water) and hinder the transport of the oxygen reactant from the gas flow channel (GFC) to the three-phase reaction sites. The experimental transparent fuel cell used in this work was designed to represent actual full scale of fuel cell geometry. According to the operating conditions, a number of flow regimes may appear in the microchannel: droplet flow, blockage water liquid bridge /plug (concave and convex forms), slug/plug flow and film flow. Some of flow patterns are new, while others have been already observed in PEMFC microchannels. An algorithm in MATLAB was developed to automatically determine the flow structure (e.g. slug, droplet, plug, and film) of detected liquid water in the test microchannels and yield information pertaining to the distribution of water among the different flow structures. A video processing algorithm was developed to automatically detect dynamic and static liquid water present in the gas channels and generate relevant quantitative information. The potential benefit of this software allows the user to obtain a more precise and systematic way to obtain measurements from images of small objects. The void fractions are also determined based on images analysis. The aim of this work is to provide a comprehensive characterization of two-phase flow in an operating fuel cell which can be used towards the optimization of water management and informs design guidelines for gas delivery microchannels for fuel cells and its essential in the design and control of diverse applications. The approach will combine numerical modeling with experimental visualization and measurements.

Keywords: polymer electrolyte fuel cell, air-water two phase flow, gas diffusion layer, microchannels, advancing contact angle, receding contact angle, void fraction, surface tension, image processing

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Authors: Mridula Devi

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Trafficking of women is a slur on human dignity and a shameful act to human civilization and development. Trafficking of women is one of worst brazen abuses which violate the women’s human rights. In India, more particularly in Assam, human trafficking and infringement of human rights of individual includes mainly the women and girl child of the State. Trafficking in North East region of India, more particularly in Assam occurs in two different ways – one is the internal trafficking of women and girl child from conflict affected rural areas of Assam for domestic work and prostitution. Secondly, there is trafficking of women to other south-East Asiatic countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bangkok, Myanmar (Burma) for various purposes such as drug trafficking, labor, bar girl and prostitution.Historically, trafficking in human beings is associated with slavery and bonded or forced labor. Since the period of Roman Civilization, there was the practice of traffic in persons in the form of slave trade among the nations. With the rise of new imperialism, slavery had become an integral part of the colonial system of European Countries. With time, it almost became synonymous with prostitution or commercial sexual exploitation. Finally, the United Nation adopted the Convention for the Suppression of the Traffic in Persons and of the Prostitution of others, 1949 by the G.A.Res.No.-317(iv). The Convention totally denounces the traffic in persons for the purpose of prostitution. However, it is important to note that, now a days trafficking is not confined to commercial sexual exploitation of women and children alone. It has myriad forms and the number of victims has been steadily on the rise over the past few decades. In Assam, it takes place through and for marriage, sexual exploitation, begging, organ trading, militancy conflicts, drug padding and smuggling, labour, adoption, entertainment, and sports. In this paper, empirical methodology has been used. The study is based on primary and secondary sources. Data’s are collected from different books, publications, newspaper, journals etc. For empirical analysis, some random samples are collected and systematized for better result. India suffers from the ignominy of being one of the biggest hubs of women trafficking in the world. Over the years, Assam: the north east part of India has been bearing the brunt of the rapidly rising evil of trafficking of women which threaten the life, dignity and human rights of women. Though different laws are adopted at international and national level to restore trafficking, still the menace of trafficking of women in Assam is not decreased, rather it increased. This causes a serious violation of women’s human right in Assam. Human trafficking or women’s trafficking is a serious crime against society. To curb this in Assam it is required to take some effective and dedicated measure at state level as well as national and international level.

Keywords: Assam, human trafficking, sexual exploitation, India

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Authors: Yonas Shuke Kitawa

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Background: Although malaria incidence has substantially fallen sharply over the past few years, the rate of decline varies by district, time, and malaria type. Despite this turn-down, malaria remains a major public health threat in various districts of Ethiopia. Consequently, the present study is aimed at developing a predictive model that helps to identify the spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk by multiple plasmodium species. Methods: We propose a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model to obtain a more coherent picture of the temporally varying spatial variation in disease risk. The spatial autocorrelation in such a data set is typically modeled by a set of random effects that assign a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, the autocorrelation considered in such cases depends on a binary neighborhood matrix specified through the border-sharing rule. Over here, we propose a graph-based optimization algorithm for estimating the neighborhood matrix that merely represents the spatial correlation by exploring the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbor relations as the series of edges. Furthermore, we used aggregated malaria count in southern Ethiopia from August 2013 to May 2019. Results: We recognized that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are positively associated with the malaria threat in the area. On the other hand, enhanced vegetation index, nighttime light (NTL), and distance from coastal areas are negatively associated. Moreover, nonlinear relationships were observed between malaria incidence and precipitation, temperature, and NTL. Additionally, lagged effects of temperature and humidity have a significant effect on malaria risk by either species. More elevated risk of P. falciparum was observed following the rainy season, and unstable transmission of P. vivax was observed in the area. Finally, P. vivax risks are less sensitive to environmental factors than those of P. falciparum. Conclusion: The improved inference was gained by employing the proposed approach in comparison to the commonly used border-sharing rule. Additionally, different covariates are identified, including delayed effects, and elevated risks of either of the cases were observed in districts found in the central and western regions. As malaria transmission operates in a spatially continuous manner, a spatially continuous model should be employed when it is computationally feasible.

Keywords: disease mapping, MSTCAR, graph-based optimization algorithm, P. falciparum, P. vivax, waiting matrix

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Authors: Hussain Bohra, Pradyuman Sharma

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This study highlights the significance of Balance Sheet Indicators on the corporate performance in the case of Indian manufacturing companies. Balance sheet indicators show the actual financial health of the company and it helps to the external investors to choose the right company for their investment and it also help to external financing agency to give easy finance to the manufacturing companies. The period of study is 2000 to 2014 for 813 manufacturing companies for which the continuous data is available throughout the study period. The data is collected from PROWESS data base maintained by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd. Panel data methods like fixed effect and random effect methods are used for the analysis. The Likelihood Ratio test, Lagrange Multiplier test and Hausman test results proof the suitability of the fixed effect model for the estimation. Return on assets (ROA) is used as the proxy to measure corporate performance. ROA is the best proxy to measure corporate performance as it already used by the most of the authors who worked on the corporate performance. ROA shows return on long term investment projects of firms. Different ratios like Current Ratio, Debt-equity ratio, Receivable turnover ratio, solvency ratio have been used as the proxies for the Balance Sheet Indicators. Other firm specific variable like firm size, and sales as the control variables in the model. From the empirical analysis, it was found that all selected financial ratios have significant and positive impact on the corporate performance. Firm sales and firm size also found significant and positive impact on the corporate performance. To check the robustness of results, the sample was divided on the basis of different ratio like firm having high debt equity ratio and low debt equity ratio, firms having high current ratio and low current ratio, firms having high receivable turnover and low receivable ratio and solvency ratio in the form of firms having high solving ratio and low solvency ratio. We find that the results are robust to all types of companies having different form of selected balance sheet indicators ratio. The results for other variables are also in the same line as for the whole sample. These findings confirm that Balance sheet indicators play as significant role on the corporate performance in India. The findings of this study have the implications for the corporate managers to focus different ratio to maintain the minimum expected level of performance. Apart from that, they should also maintain adequate sales and total assets to improve corporate performance.

Keywords: balance sheet, corporate performance, current ratio, panel data method

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Authors: Wilai Masanga, Chirapha Tannanonta, Sangutid Thongsawad, Sasikarn Chamchod, Todsaporn Fuangrod

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The major factors of radiotherapy for head and neck (HN) cancers include patient’s anatomical changes and tumour shrinkage. These changes can significantly affect the planned dose distribution that causes the treatment plan deterioration. A measured transit EPID images compared to a predicted EPID images using gamma analysis has been clinically implemented to verify the dose accuracy as part of adaptive radiotherapy protocol. However, a global gamma analysis dose not sensitive to some critical organ changes as the entire treatment field is compared. The objective of this feasibility study is to evaluate the dosimetric response to patient anatomical changes during the treatment course in HN IMRT (Head and Neck Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy) using a novel comparison method; organ-of-interest gamma analysis. This method provides more sensitive to specific organ change detection. Random replanned 5 HN IMRT patients with causes of tumour shrinkage and patient weight loss that critically affect to the parotid size changes were selected and evaluated its transit dosimetry. A comprehensive physics-based model was used to generate a series of predicted transit EPID images for each gantry angle from original computed tomography (CT) and replan CT datasets. The patient structures; including left and right parotid, spinal cord, and planning target volume (PTV56) were projected to EPID level. The agreement between the transit images generated from original CT and replanned CT was quantified using gamma analysis with 3%, 3mm criteria. Moreover, only gamma pass-rate is calculated within each projected structure. The gamma pass-rate in right parotid and PTV56 between predicted transit of original CT and replan CT were 42.8%( ± 17.2%) and 54.7%( ± 21.5%). The gamma pass-rate for other projected organs were greater than 80%. Additionally, the results of organ-of-interest gamma analysis were compared with 3-dimensional cone-beam computed tomography (3D-CBCT) and the rational of replan by radiation oncologists. It showed that using only registration of 3D-CBCT to original CT does not provide the dosimetric impact of anatomical changes. Using transit EPID images with organ-of-interest gamma analysis can provide additional information for treatment plan suitability assessment.

Keywords: re-plan, anatomical change, transit electronic portal imaging device, EPID, head, and neck

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Authors: İlknur Gökşin, Sultan Ayaz Alkaya

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Objective: Progressive muscle relaxation (PMR) include the deliberate stretching and relaxation of the major muscle groups of the human body. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of PMR applied in women on the postpartum depression and general comfort level. Methods: The study population of this quasi-experimental study with pre-test, post-test and control group consisted of primipara women who had vaginal delivery in the obstetric service of a university hospital. The experimental and control groups consisted of 35 women each. The data were collected by questionnaire, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and the General Comfort Questionnaire (GCQ). The women were matched according to their age and education level and divided into the experimental and control groups by simple random selection. Postpartum depression risk and general comfort was evaluated at the 2nd and 5th days, 10th and 15th days, fourth week and eighth week after birth. The experimental group was visited at home and PMR was applied. After the first visit, women were asked to apply PMR regularly three times a week for eight weeks. During the application, the researcher called the participants twice a week to follow up the continuity of the application. No intervention was performed in the control group. For data analysis, descriptive statistics such as number, percentage, mean, standard deviation, significance test of difference between two means and ANOVA were used. Approval of the ethics committee and permission of the institution were obtained for the study. Results: There were no significant differences between the women in the experimental and control groups in terms of age, education status and employment status (p>0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the experimental and control groups in terms of EPDS pre-test, 1st, 2nd and 3rd follow-up mean scores (p>0.05). There was a statistically significant difference between EPDS pre-test and 3rd follow-up scores of the experimental group (p<0.05), whereas there was no such difference in the control group (p>0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the experimental and control groups in terms of mean GCQ pre-test scores (p>0.05), whereas in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd follow-ups there was a statistically significant difference between the mean GCQ scores (p<0.05). It was found that there was a significant increase in the GCQ physical, psychospiritual and sociocultural comfort sub-scales, relief and relaxation levels of the experimental group between the pre-test and 3rd follow-ups scores (p<0.05). And, a significant decrease was found between pre-test and 3rd follow-up GCQ psychospiritual, environmental and sociocultural comfort sub-scale, relief, relaxation and superiority levels (p<0.05). Conclusion: Progressive muscle relaxation was effective on reducing the postpartum depression risk and increasing general comfort. It is recommended to provide progressive muscle relaxation training to women in the postpartum period as well as ensuring the continuity of this practice.

Keywords: general comfort, postpartum depression, postpartum period, progressive muscle relaxation

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Authors: Mahshid Arabi

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In recent years, remarkable advancements in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning have led to the development of facial recognition technologies. These technologies are now employed in a wide range of applications, including security, surveillance, healthcare, and education. In the field of education, the identification of university entrance exam candidates has been one of the fundamental challenges. Traditional methods such as using ID cards and handwritten signatures are not only inefficient and prone to fraud but also susceptible to errors. In this context, utilizing advanced technologies like facial recognition can be an effective and efficient solution to increase the accuracy and reliability of identity verification in entrance exams. This article examines the use of FaceMatch software for recognizing the faces of university entrance exam candidates in Iran. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of FaceMatch software in identifying university entrance exam candidates to prevent fraud and ensure the authenticity of individuals' identities. Additionally, this research investigates the advantages and challenges of using this technology in Iran's educational systems. This research was conducted using an experimental method and random sampling. In this study, 1000 university entrance exam candidates in Iran were selected as samples. The facial images of these candidates were processed and analyzed using FaceMatch software. The software's accuracy and efficiency were evaluated using various metrics, including accuracy rate, error rate, and processing time. The research results indicated that FaceMatch software could accurately identify candidates with a precision of 98.5%. The software's error rate was less than 1.5%, demonstrating its high efficiency in facial recognition. Additionally, the average processing time for each candidate's image was less than 2 seconds, indicating the software's high efficiency. Statistical evaluation of the results using precise statistical tests, including analysis of variance (ANOVA) and t-test, showed that the observed differences were significant, and the software's accuracy in identity verification is high. The findings of this research suggest that FaceMatch software can be effectively used as a tool for identifying university entrance exam candidates in Iran. This technology not only enhances security and prevents fraud but also simplifies and streamlines the exam administration process. However, challenges such as preserving candidates' privacy and the costs of implementation must also be considered. The use of facial recognition technology with FaceMatch software in Iran's educational systems can be an effective solution for preventing fraud and ensuring the authenticity of university entrance exam candidates' identities. Given the promising results of this research, it is recommended that this technology be more widely implemented and utilized in the country's educational systems.

Keywords: facial recognition, FaceMatch software, Iran, university entrance exam

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Authors: Praskovya Britskaya, Fatima Shaizadina, Alua Omarova, Nessipkul Alysheva

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Planned preventive vaccination, which is carried out in the Republic of Kazakhstan, promoted permanent decrease in the incidence of measles and viral hepatitis B. In the structure of VHB patients prevail people of young, working age. Monitoring of infectious incidence, monitoring of coverage of immunization of the population, random serological control over the immunity enable well-timed identification of distribution of the activator, effectiveness of the taken measures and forecasting. The serological blood analysis was conducted in indicator groups of the population of Central Kazakhstan for the purpose of identification of antibody titre for vaccine preventable infections (measles, viral hepatitis B). Measles antibodies were defined by method of enzyme-linked assay (ELA) with test-systems "VektoKor" – Ig G ('Vektor-Best' JSC). Antibodies for HBs-antigen of hepatitis B virus in blood serum was identified by method of enzyme-linked assay (ELA) with VektoHBsAg test systems – antibodies ('Vektor-Best' JSC). The result of the analysis is positive, the concentration of IgG to measles virus in the studied sample is equal to 0.18 IU/ml or more. Protective level of concentration of anti-HBsAg makes 10 mIU/ml. The results of the study of postvaccinal measles immunity showed that the share of seropositive people made 87.7% of total number of surveyed. The level of postvaccinal immunity to measles in age groups differs. So, among people older than 56 the percentage of seropositive made 95.2%. Among people aged 15-25 were registered 87.0% seropositive, at the age of 36-45 – 86.6%. In age groups of 25-35 and 36-45 the share of seropositive people was approximately at the same level – 88.5% and 88.8% respectively. The share of people seronegative to a measles virus made 12.3%. The biggest share of seronegative people was found among people aged 36-45 – 13.4% and 15-25 – 13.0%. The analysis of results of the examined people for the existence of postvaccinal immunity to viral hepatitis B showed that from all surveyed only 33.5% have the protective level of concentration of anti-HBsAg of 10 mIU/ml and more. The biggest share of people protected from VHB virus is observed in the age group of 36-45 and makes 60%. In the indicator group – above 56 – seropositive people made 4.8%. The high percentage of seronegative people has been observed in all studied age groups from 40.0% to 95.2%. The group of people which is least protected from getting VHB is people above 56 (95.2%). The probability to get VHB is also high among young people aged 25-35, the percentage of seronegative people made 80%. Thus, the results of the conducted research testify to the need for carrying out serological monitoring of postvaccinal immunity for the purpose of operational assessment of the epidemiological situation, early identification of its changes and prediction of the approaching danger.

Keywords: antibodies, blood serum, immunity, immunoglobulin

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Authors: Yasmeen Cheema, Parvinder Singh

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The evolution of Islamic State (acronym IS) has an ultimate goal of restoring the caliphate. IS threat to the global security is main concern of international community but has also raised a factual concern for India about the regular radicalization of IS ideology among Indian youth. The incident of joining Arif Ejaz Majeed, an Indian as ‘jihadist’ in IS has set strident alarm in law & enforcement agencies. On 07.03.2017, many people were injured in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast on-board of Bhopal Ujjain Express. One perpetrator of this incident was killed in encounter with police. But, the biggest shock is that the conspiracy was pre-planned and the assailants who carried out the blast were influenced by the ideology perpetrated by the Islamic State. This is the first time name of IS has cropped up in a terror attack in India. It is a red indicator of violent presence of IS in India, which is spreading through social media. The IS have the capacity to influence the younger Muslim generation in India through its brutal and aggressive propaganda videos, social media apps and hatred speeches. It is a well known fact that India is on the radar of IS, as well on its ‘Caliphate Map’. IS uses Twitter, Facebook and other social media platforms constantly. Islamic State has used enticing videos, graphics, and articles on social media and try to influence persons from India & globally that their jihad is worthy. According to arrested perpetrator of IS in different cases in India, the most of Indian youths are victims to the daydreams which are fondly shown by IS. The dreams that the Muslim empire as it was before 1920 can come back with all its power and also that the Caliph and its caliphate can be re-established are shown by the IS. Indian Muslim Youth gets attracted towards these euphemistic ideologies. Islamic State has used social media for disseminating its poisonous ideology, recruitment, operational activities and for future direction of attacks. IS through social media inspired its recruits & lone wolfs to continue to rely on local networks to identify targets and access weaponry and explosives. Recently, a pro-IS media group on its Telegram platform shows Taj Mahal as the target and suggested mode of attack as a Vehicle Born Improvised Explosive Attack (VBIED). Islamic State definitely has the potential to destroy the Indian national security & peace, if timely steps are not taken. No doubt, IS has used social media as a critical mechanism for recruitment, planning and executing of terror attacks. This paper will therefore examine the specific characteristics of social media that have made it such a successful weapon for Islamic State. The rise of IS in India should be viewed as a national crisis and handled at the central level with efficient use of modern technology.

Keywords: ideology, India, Islamic State, national security, recruitment, social media, terror attack

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Authors: Min Han, Di Wu, Lin Yuan, Fei Liu

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Mechanical sensors have undergone a continuous evolution and have become an important part of many industries, ranging from manufacturing to process, chemicals, machinery, health-care, environmental monitoring, automotive, avionics, and household appliances. Concurrently, the microelectronics and microfabrication technology have provided us with the means of producing mechanical microsensors characterized by high sensitivity, small size, integrated electronics, on board calibration, and low cost. Here we report a new kind of mechanical sensors based on the quantum transport process of electrons in the closely spaced nanoparticle films covering a flexible polymer sheet. The nanoparticle films were fabricated by gas phase depositing of preformed metal nanoparticles with a controlled coverage on the electrodes. To amplify the conductance of the nanoparticle array, we fabricated silver interdigital electrodes on polyethylene terephthalate(PET) by mask evaporation deposition. The gaps of the electrodes ranged from 3 to 30μm. Metal nanoparticles were generated from a magnetron plasma gas aggregation cluster source and deposited on the interdigital electrodes. Closely spaced nanoparticle arrays with different coverage could be gained through real-time monitoring the conductance. In the film coulomb blockade and quantum, tunneling/hopping dominate the electronic conduction mechanism. The basic principle of the mechanical sensors relies on the mechanical deformation of the fabricated devices which are translated into electrical signals. Several kinds of sensing devices have been explored. As a strain sensor, the device showed a high sensitivity as well as a very wide dynamic range. A gauge factor as large as 100 or more was demonstrated, which can be at least one order of magnitude higher than that of the conventional metal foil gauges or even better than that of the semiconductor-based gauges with a workable maximum applied strain beyond 3%. And the strain sensors have a workable maximum applied strain larger than 3%. They provide the potential to be a new generation of strain sensors with performance superior to that of the currently existing strain sensors including metallic strain gauges and semiconductor strain gauges. When integrated into a pressure gauge, the devices demonstrated the ability to measure tiny pressure change as small as 20Pa near the atmospheric pressure. Quantitative vibration measurements were realized on a free-standing cantilever structure fabricated with closely-spaced nanoparticle array sensing element. What is more, the mechanical sensor elements can be easily scaled down, which is feasible for MEMS and NEMS applications.

Keywords: gas phase deposition, mechanical sensors, metallic nanoparticle arrays, quantum conductance

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Authors: Mardianto

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Education and learning are now grown rapidly. Synergy of techonology especially instructional technology in the learning activities are very big influence on the effectiveness of learning and creativity to achieve optimal results. But on the other hand there is a education value that is difficult to be articulated through character-forming technology such as honesty, discipline, hard work, heroism, and so forth. Learning strategy and storytelling from the past until today is still an option for teachers to convey the message of character values. With the material was loaded from the local culture (stories folklore), the combination of learning objectives (build character child) strategy, and traditional methods (storytelling and story), and the preservation of local culture (dig tale folklore) is critical to maintaining the nation's culture. In the context of maintaining the nation's culture, then since the age of the child at the level of government elementary school a necessity. Globalization, the internet and technology sometimes feel can displace the role of the teacher in the learning activities. To the oral tradition is a mainstay of storytelling should be maintained and preserved. This research was conducted at the elementary school in the city of Medan, North Sumatra Indonesia, with a random sampling technique, the 27 class teachers were respondents who were randomly assigned to the Madrasah Ibtdaiyah (Islamic Elementary School) both public and private. Research conducted at the beginning of 2014 refers to a curriculum that is being transformed in the environment ministry Republic Religion Indonesia. The results of this study indicate that; the declining skills of teachers to develop storytelling this can be seen from; 74.07% of teachers have never attended a special training storytelling, 85.19% no longer nasakah new stories, only 22.22% are teachers who incorporate methods of stories in the learning plan. Most teachers are no longer concerned with storytelling, among those experiencing difficulty in developing methods because the story; 66.67% of children are more interested in children's cartoons like Bobo boy, Angrybirds and others, 59.26 children prefer other activities than listening to a story. The teachers hope, folklore books should be preserved, storytelling training should be provided by the government through the ministry of religion, race or competition of storytelling should be scheduled, writing a new script-based populist storytelling should be provided immediately. The teachers’ hope certainly not excessive, by realizing the story method becomes articulation as the efforts of child character development based populist, therefore the local knowledge can be a strong fortress facing society in the era of progress as at present, and future.

Keywords: story telling, local wisdom, education, technology development

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Authors: E. H. Walsh, J. McMahon, M. P. Herring

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Post-primary school-based suicide prevention (PSSP) is a valuable avenue to reduce suicidal behaviours in adolescents. The aims of this meta-analysis and meta-regression were 1) to quantify the effect of PSSP interventions on adolescent suicide ideation (SI) and suicide attempts (SA), and 2) to explore how intervention effects may vary based on important contextual and intervention factors. This study provides further support to the benefits of PSSP by demonstrating lower suicide outcomes in over 30,000 adolescents following PSSP and mental health interventions and tentatively suggests that intervention effectiveness may potentially vary based on intervention factors. The protocol for this study is registered on PROSPERO (ID=CRD42020168883). Population, intervention, comparison, outcomes, and study design (PICOs) defined eligible studies as cluster randomised studies (n=12) containing PSSP and measuring suicide outcomes. Aggregate electronic database EBSCO host, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were searched. Cochrane bias tools for cluster randomised studies demonstrated that half of the studies were rated as low risk of bias. The Egger’s Regression Test adapted for multi-level modelling indicated that publication bias was not an issue (all ps > .05). Crude and corresponding adjusted pooled log odds ratios (OR) were computed using the Metafor package in R, yielding 12 SA and 19 SI effects. Multi-level random-effects models accounting for dependencies of effects from the same study revealed that in crude models, compared to controls, interventions were significantly associated with 13% (OR=0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI), [0.78,0.96], Q18 =15.41, p=0.63) and 34% (OR=0.66, 95%CI [0.47,0.91], Q10=16.31, p=0.13) lower odds of SI and SA, respectively. Adjusted models showed similar odds reductions of 15% (OR=0.85, 95%CI[0.75,0.95], Q18=10.04, p=0.93) and 28% (OR=0.72, 95%CI[0.59,0.87], Q10=10.46, p=0.49) for SI and SA, respectively. Within-cluster heterogeneity ranged from no heterogeneity to low heterogeneity for SA across crude and adjusted models (0-9%). No heterogeneity was identified for SI across crude and adjusted models (0%). Pre-specified univariate moderator analyses were not significant for SA (all ps < 0.05). Variations in average pooled SA odds reductions across categories of various intervention characteristics were observed (all ps < 0.05), which preliminarily suggests that the effectiveness of interventions may potentially vary across intervention factors. These findings have practical implications for researchers, clinicians, educators, and decision-makers. Further investigation of important logical, theoretical, and empirical moderators on PSSP intervention effectiveness is recommended to establish how and when PSSP interventions best reduce adolescent suicidal behaviour.

Keywords: adolescents, contextual factors, post-primary school-based suicide prevention, suicide ideation, suicide attempts

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Authors: Nwamaka Patricia Ibeme, Musa Zakari

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E-learning is made more effective because; it is enable student to students to easily interact, share, and collaborate across time and space with the help of e-governance platform. Zoom and the Microsoft classroom team can invite students from all around the world to join a conversation on a certain subject simultaneously. E-governance may be able to work on problem solving skills, as well as brainstorming and developing ideas. As a result of the shared experiences and knowledge, students are able to express themselves and reflect on their own learning." For students, e-governance facilities provide greater opportunity for students to build critical (higher order) thinking abilities through constructive learning methods. Students' critical thinking abilities may improve with more time spent in an online classroom. Students' inventiveness can be enhanced through the use of computer-based instruction. Discover multimedia tools and produce products in the styles that are easily available through games, Compact Disks, and television. The use of e-learning has increased both teaching and learning quality by combining student autonomy, capacity, and creativity over time in developed countries." Teachers are catalysts for the integration of technology through Information and Communication Technology, and e-learning supports teaching by simplifying access to course content." Creating an Information and Communication Technology class will be much easier if educational institutions provide teachers with the assistance, equipment, and resources they need. The study adopted survey research design. The populations of the study are Students and staff. The study adopted a simple random sampling technique to select a representative population. Both primary and secondary method of data collection was used to obtain the data. A chi-square statistical technique was used to analyze. Finding from the study revealed that e-learning has increase accesses to universities educational by public servants in Nigeria. Public servants in Nigeria have utilized e-learning and Online Distance Learning (ODL) programme to into various degree programmes. Finding also shows that E-learning plays an important role in teaching because it is oriented toward the use of information and communication technologies that have become a part of the everyday life and day-to-day business. E-learning contributes to traditional teaching methods and provides many advantages to society and citizens. The study recommends that the e-learning tools and internet facilities should be upgrade to foster any network challenges in the online facilitation and lecture delivery system.

Keywords: E-governance, E-learning, online distance learning, university education public servants, Nigeria

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Authors: Remi Szauer

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Introductory, Background, and Importance of the Study: For many years, religiosity in Poland remained at a stable level of religious practice. When the symptoms of secularization and privatization processes appeared in Poland, it was not clearly felt but rather related to the decline in compulsory practices carried out in public, the growing distance of respondents to catholic ethic, and the lack of acceptance regarding the intervention of the Church in legislation and policy. The basic indicators observed over the years kept the picture: more religious women - less religious men. By carrying out own research in the field of religious and moral attitudes in 2019-2021, it was noticed that a reversal of the trend preserved over the years could be observed. The data showed that women under 40 are radically different in their responses than women older than them - especially those over 50: in terms of practices or ties with the Church and many more specific aspects. This became the basis for a careful examination of the responses in the under 40 age cohorts among women. This study is significant because it shows completely new perspectives of women's perception of religiosity and allows us to notice clearly the aspects of social changes mapped in the minds of the surveyed women. Research Methodology: The original survey was carried out using the quantitative method among 2,346 respondents in northern Poland, 1,349 of whom were women. The findings from these observations led to deepening the topic of beliefs of women under 40 compared to other age cohorts of women. Hence, studies were carried out on the general population of women in Poland, which constituted a comparative sample. These were panel studies. The selection of the sample among women was random, respecting the age amounts so that the two statistical groups could be compared. The designated research parameters included: declarations of religious faith, declarations of religious practice, bond with the Church, acceptance of Mariological dogmas, attitude towards the image of women in the Church, and acceptance of selected issues in Catholic ethics. Main Research Findings: Among women under 40, the decline in declarations not only concerning compulsory public practices but also private practices and declarations of religious faith is more pronounced. Not only is the range of indifferent religious attitudes increasing, but also attitudes directly declaring religious disbelief, for which there are important justifications. Women under 40 years of age strongly distance themselves from the institutions of the Church and from accepting Mariological dogmas. Moreover, they note that the image of a woman is marked by stereotyping, favoring the intensification of violence against women, as well as disregarding her potential and agency. Concluding Statement: By analyzing the answers of the female respondents and the data obtained in the research, it can be observed a reevaluation of women's beliefs, which opens the perspective of analyzing the role of religion and the Church in Poland as well as religious socialization.

Keywords: religiosity, morality, gender, feminism, social change

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Authors: Amit Kumar Verma

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The present study deals with fire prediction model in Terai Arc Landscape, one of the most dramatic ecosystems in Asia where large, wide-ranging species such as tiger, rhinos, and elephant will thrive while bringing economic benefits to the local people. Forest fires cause huge economic and ecological losses and release considerable quantities of carbon into the air and is an important factor inflating the global burden of carbon emissions. Forest fire is an important factor of behavioral cum ecological habit of tiger in wild. Post fire changes i.e. micro and macro habitat directly affect the tiger habitat or land. Vulnerability of fire depicts the changes in microhabitat (humus, soil profile, litter, vegetation, grassland ecosystem). Microorganism like spider, annelids, arthropods and other favorable microorganism directly affect by the forest fire and indirectly these entire microorganisms are responsible for the development of tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat. On the other hand, fire brings depletion in prey species and negative movement of tiger from wild to human- dominated areas, which may leads the conflict i.e. dangerous for both tiger & human beings. Early forest fire prediction through mapping the risk zones can help minimize the fire frequency and manage forest fires thereby minimizing losses. Satellite data plays a vital role in identifying and mapping forest fire and recording the frequency with which different vegetation types are affected. Thematic hazard maps have been generated by using IDW technique. A prediction model for fire occurrence is developed for TAL. The fire occurrence records were collected from state forest department from 2000 to 2014. Disciminant function models was used for developing a prediction model for forest fires in TAL, random points for non-occurrence of fire have been generated. Based on the attributes of points of occurrence and non-occurrence, the model developed predicts the fire occurrence. The map of predicted probabilities classified the study area into five classes very high (12.94%), high (23.63%), moderate (25.87%), low(27.46%) and no fire (10.1%) based upon the intensity of hazard. model is able to classify 78.73 percent of points correctly and hence can be used for the purpose with confidence. Overall, also the model works correctly with almost 69% of points. This study exemplifies the usefulness of prediction model of forest fire and offers a more effective way for management of forest fire. Overall, this study depicts the model for conservation of tiger’s natural habitat and forest conservation which is beneficial for the wild and human beings for future prospective.

Keywords: fire prediction model, forest fire hazard, GIS, landsat, MODIS, TAL

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Authors: Fred Alinda, Marjorie Negesa, Gerald Karyeija

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Like elsewhere in the world, youth unemployment remains a big problem more so to the most educated youth and female. In Rwanda, unemployment is estimated at 13.2% among youth graduates compared to 10.9% and 2.6 among secondary and primary graduates respectively. Though empirical evidence elsewhere associate youth unemployment with education level, relevance of skills and access to business support opportunities, mixed evidence still exist on the significance of these factors to youth employment. As youth employment strategies in countries like Rwanda continue to recognize the potential role university education can play to enhance employment, there is a need to understand the catalysts or barriers. This paper, therefore, draws empirical evidence from a survey on the influence of education qualification, skills relevance and access to business support opportunities on employment of the youth university graduates in Masaka sector, Rwanda. The analysis tested four hypotheses; access to university education significantly affects youth employment, Relevance of university education significantly contributes to youth employment; access to business support opportunities significantly contributes to youth employment, and significant gender differences exist in the employment of youth university graduates. A cross-section survey was used in lieu of the need to explore the prevailing status of youth employment and contributing factors across the sector. A questionnaire was used to collect data on a large sample of 269 youth to allow statistical analysis. This was beefed up with qualitative views of leaders and technical officials in the sector. The youth University graduates were selected using simple random sampling while the leaders and technical officials were selected purposively. Percentages were used to describe respondents in line with the variables under while a regression model for youth employment was fitted to determine the significant factors. The model results indicated a significant influence (p<0.05) of gender, education level and access to business support opportunities on employment of youth university graduates. This finding was also affirmed by the qualitative views of key informants. Qualitative views pointed to the fact that university education generally equipped the youth with skills that enabled their transition into employment mainly for a salary or wage. The skills were, however, deficient in technical and practical aspects. In addition, the youth generally lacked limited access to business support opportunities particularly guarantees for loans, business advisory, and grants for business as well as training in business skills that would help them gain salaried employment or transit into self-employment. The study findings bear an implication on the strategy for catalyzing youth employment through university education. The findings imply that university education should be embraced but with greater emphasis on or supplementation with specialized training in practical and technical skills as well as extending business support opportunities to the youth. This will accelerate the contribution of university education to youth employment.

Keywords: education, employment, self-employment, youth

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Authors: Andrea Hernandez Hurtado

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Research on social networks (SNs) -- the interactions individuals share with others has shed important light in helping to explain differential use of variable linguistic forms, both in L1s and L2s. Nevertheless, the acquisition of nonstandard L2 Spanish in the Region of Murcia, Spain, and how learners interact with other speakers while sojourning there have received little attention. Murcian Spanish (MuSp) was widely influenced by Panocho, a divergent evolution of Hispanic Latin, and differs from the more standard Peninsular Spanish (StSp) in phonology, morphology, and lexicon. For instance, speakers from this area will most likely palatalize diminutive endings, producing animalico [̩a.ni.ma.ˈli.ko] instead of animalito [̩a.ni.ma.ˈli.to] ‘little animal’. Because L1 speakers of the area produce and prefer salient regional lexicon and morphology (particularly the palatalized diminutive -ico) in their speech, the current research focuses on how international residents in the Region of Murcia use Spanish: (1) whether or not they acquire (perceptively and/or productively) any of the salient regional features of MuSp, and (2) how their SNs explain such acquisition. This study triangulates across three tasks -recognition, production, and preference- addressing both lexicon and morphology, with each task specifically created for the investigation of MuSp features. Among other variables, the effects of L1, residence, and identity are considered. As an ongoing dissertation research, data are currently being gathered through an online questionnaire. So far, 7 participants from multiple nationalities have completed the survey, although a minimum of 25 are expected to be included in the coming months. Preliminary results revealed that MuSp lexicon and morphology were successfully recognized by participants (p<.001). In terms of regional lexicon production (10.0%) and preference (47.5%), although participants showed higher percentages of StSp, results showed that international residents become aware of stigmatized lexicon and may incorporate it into their language use. Similarly, palatalized diminutives (production 14.2%, preference 19.0%) were present in their responses. The Social Network Analysis provided information about participants’ relationships with their interactants, as well as among them. Results indicated that, generally, when residents were more immersed in the culture (i.e., had more Murcian alters) they produced and preferred more regional features. This project contributes to the knowledge of language variation acquisition in L2 speakers, focusing on a stigmatized Spanish dialect and exploring how stigmatized varieties may affect L2 development. Results will show how L2 Spanish speakers’ language is affected by their stay in Murcia. This, in turn, will shed light on the role of SNs in language acquisition, the acquisition of understudied and marginalized varieties, and the role of immersion on language acquisition. As the first systematic account on the acquisition of L2 Spanish lexicon and morphology in the Region of Murcia, it lays important groundwork for further research on the connection between SNs and the acquisition of regional variants, applicable to Murcia and beyond.

Keywords: international residents, L2 Spanish, lexicon, morphology, nonstandard language acquisition, social networks

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Authors: Epaminondas G. Kyriakidis, Theodosis D. Dimitrakos, Constantinos C. Karamatsoukis

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The vehicle routing problem (VRP) is a well-known problem in Operations Research and has been widely studied during the last fifty-five years. The context of the VRP is that of delivering or collecting products to or from customers who are scattered in a geographical area and have placed orders for these products. A vehicle or a fleet of vehicles start their routes from a depot and visit the customers in order to satisfy their demands. Special attention has been given to the capacitated VRP in which the vehicles have limited carrying capacity for the goods that are delivered or collected. In the present work, we present a specific capacitated stochastic vehicle routing problem which has many realistic applications. We develop and analyze a mathematical model for a specific vehicle routing problem in which a vehicle starts its route from a depot and visits N customers according to a particular sequence in order to collect from them two similar but not identical products. We name these products, product 1 and product 2. Each customer possesses items either of product 1 or product 2 with known probabilities. The number of the items of product 1 or product 2 that each customer possesses is a discrete random variable with known distribution. The actual quantity and the actual type of product that each customer possesses are revealed only when the vehicle arrives at the customer’s site. It is assumed that the vehicle has two compartments. We name these compartments, compartment 1 and compartment 2. It is assumed that compartment 1 is suitable for loading product 1 and compartment 2 is suitable for loading product 2. However, it is permitted to load items of product 1 into compartment 2 and items of product 2 into compartment 1. These actions cause costs that are due to extra labor. The vehicle is allowed during its route to return to the depot to unload the items of both products. The travel costs between consecutive customers and the travel costs between the customers and the depot are known. The objective is to find the optimal routing strategy, i.e. the routing strategy that minimizes the total expected cost among all possible strategies for servicing all customers. It is possible to develop a suitable dynamic programming algorithm for the determination of the optimal routing strategy. It is also possible to prove that the optimal routing strategy has a specific threshold-type strategy. Specifically, it is shown that for each customer the optimal actions are characterized by some critical integers. This structural result enables us to design a special-purpose dynamic programming algorithm that operates only over these strategies having this structural property. Extensive numerical results provide strong evidence that the special-purpose dynamic programming algorithm is considerably more efficient than the initial dynamic programming algorithm. Furthermore, if we consider the same problem without the assumption that the customers are ordered, numerical experiments indicate that the optimal routing strategy can be computed if N is smaller or equal to eight.

Keywords: dynamic programming, similar products, stochastic demands, stochastic preferences, vehicle routing problem

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Authors: Najibullah M, Soumendra Nath Kuiry

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Dams and reservoirs are perceived for their estimable alms to irrigation, water supply, flood control, electricity generation, etc. which civilize the prosperity and wealth of society across the world. Meantime the dam breach could cause devastating flood that can threat to the human lives and properties. Failures of large dams remain fortunately very seldom events. Nevertheless, a number of occurrences have been recorded in the world, corresponding in an average to one to two failures worldwide every year. Some of those accidents have caused catastrophic consequences. So it is decisive to predict the dam break flow for emergency planning and preparedness, as it poses high risk to life and property. To mitigate the adverse impact of dam break, modeling is necessary to gain a good understanding of the temporal and spatial evolution of the dam-break floods. This study will mainly deal with one-dimensional (1D) dam break modeling. Less commonly used in the hydraulic research community, another possible option for modeling the rapidly varied dam-break flows is the extended Boussinesq equations (BEs), which can describe the dynamics of short waves with a reasonable accuracy. Unlike the Shallow Water Equations (SWEs), the BEs taken into account the wave dispersion and non-hydrostatic pressure distribution. To capture the dam-break oscillations accurately it is very much needed of at least fourth-order accurate numerical scheme to discretize the third-order dispersion terms present in the extended BEs. The scope of this work is therefore to develop an 1D fourth-order accurate in both space and time Boussinesq model for dam-break flow analysis by using finite-volume / finite difference scheme. The spatial discretization of the flux and dispersion terms achieved through a combination of finite-volume and finite difference approximations. The flux term, was solved using a finite-volume discretization whereas the bed source and dispersion term, were discretized using centered finite-difference scheme. Time integration achieved in two stages, namely the third-order Adams Basforth predictor stage and the fourth-order Adams Moulton corrector stage. Implementation of the 1D Boussinesq model done using PYTHON 2.7.5. Evaluation of the performance of the developed model predicted as compared with the volume of fluid (VOF) based commercial model ANSYS-CFX. The developed model is used to analyze the risk of cascading dam failures similar to the Panshet dam failure in 1961 that took place in Pune, India. Nevertheless, this model can be used to predict wave overtopping accurately compared to shallow water models for designing coastal protection structures.

Keywords: Boussinesq equation, Coastal protection, Dam-break flow, One-dimensional model

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Authors: Sharmeen Rahman, Daniel Schmidt, Jane Hughes

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Paratya australiensis Kemp (Decapoda: Atyidae) is a widely distributed indigenous freshwater shrimp, highly abundant in eastern Australia. This species has been considered as a model stream organism to study genetics, dispersal, biology, behaviour and evolution in Atyids. Paratya has a filter feeding and scavenging habit which plays a significant role in the formation of lotic community structure. It has been shown to reduce periphyton and sediment from hard substrates of coastal streams and hence acts as a strongly-interacting ecosystem macroconsumer. Besides, Paratya is one of the major food sources for stream dwelling fishes. Paratya australiensis is a cryptic species complex consisting of 9 highly divergent mitochondrial DNA lineages. Among them, one lineage has been observed to favour upstream sites at higher altitudes, with cooler water temperatures. This study aims to identify local adaptation in upstream and downstream populations of this lineage in three streams in the Conondale Range, North-eastern Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Two populations (up and down stream) from each stream have been chosen to test for local adaptation, and a parallel pattern of adaptation is expected across all streams. Six populations each consisting of 24 individuals were sequenced using the Restriction Site Associated DNA-seq (RAD-seq) technique. Genetic markers (SNPs) were developed using double digest RAD sequencing (ddRAD-seq). These were used for de novo assembly of Paratya genome. De novo assembly was done using the STACKs program and produced 56, 344 loci for 47 individuals from one stream. Among these individuals, 39 individuals shared 5819 loci, and these markers are being used to test for local adaptation using Fst outlier tests (Arlequin) and Bayesian analysis (BayeScan) between up and downstream populations. Fst outlier test detected 27 loci likely to be under selection and the Bayesian analysis also detected 27 loci as under selection. Among these 27 loci, 3 loci showed evidence of selection at a significance level using BayeScan program. On the other hand, up and downstream populations are strongly diverged at neutral loci with a Fst =0.37. Similar analysis will be done with all six populations to determine if there is a parallel pattern of adaptation across all streams. Furthermore, multi-locus among population covariance analysis will be done to identify potential markers under selection as well as to compare single locus versus multi-locus approaches for detecting local adaptation. Adaptive genes identified in this study can be used for future studies to design primers and test for adaptation in related crustacean species.

Keywords: Paratya australiensis, rainforest streams, selection, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs)

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Authors: Ujjwall Sai Sunder Uppuluri

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Group theory is a powerful tool that researchers can use to provide a structural foundation for their Agent Based Models. These Agent Based models are argued by this paper to be the future of the Social Science Disciplines. More specifically, researchers can use them to apply evolutionary theory to the study of complex social systems. This paper illustrates one such example of how theoretically an Agent Based Model can be formulated from the application of Group Theory, Systems Dynamics, and Evolutionary Biology to analyze the strategies pursued by states to mitigate risk and maximize usage of resources to achieve the objective of economic growth. This example can be applied to other social phenomena and this makes group theory so useful to the analysis of complex systems, because the theory provides the mathematical formulaic proof for validating the complex system models that researchers build and this will be discussed by the paper. The aim of this research, is to also provide researchers with a framework that can be used to model political entities such as states on a 3-dimensional plane. The x-axis representing resources (tangible and intangible) available to them, y the risks, and z the objective. There also exist other states with different constraints pursuing different strategies to climb the mountain. This mountain’s environment is made up of risks the state faces and resource endowments. This mountain is also layered in the sense that it has multiple peaks that must be overcome to reach the tallest peak. A state that sticks to a single strategy or pursues a strategy that is not conducive to the climbing of that specific peak it has reached is not able to continue advancement. To overcome the obstacle in the state’s path, it must innovate. Based on the definition of a group, we can categorize each state as being its own group. Each state is a closed system, one which is made up of micro level agents who have their own vectors and pursue strategies (actions) to achieve some sub objectives. The state also has an identity, the inverse being anarchy and/or inaction. Finally, the agents making up a state interact with each other through competition and collaboration to mitigate risks and achieve sub objectives that fall within the primary objective. Thus, researchers can categorize the state as an organism that reflects the sum of the output of the interactions pursued by agents at the micro level. When states compete, they employ a strategy and that state which has the better strategy (reflected by the strategies pursued by her parts) is able to out-compete her counterpart to acquire some resource, mitigate some risk or fulfil some objective. This paper will attempt to illustrate how group theory combined with evolutionary theory and systems dynamics can allow researchers to model the long run development, evolution, and growth of political entities through the use of a bottom up approach.

Keywords: complex systems, evolutionary theory, group theory, international political economy

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Authors: Mir Mohammad Badrul Hasan, Anwar Abdkader, Chokri Cherif

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With the increasing demand and use of carbon fibre reinforced composites (CFRC), disposal of the carbon fibres (CF) and end of life composite parts is gaining tremendous importance on the issue especially of sustainability. Furthermore, a number of processes (e. g. pyrolysis, solvolysis, etc.) are available currently to obtain recycled CF (rCF) from end-of-life CFRC. Since the CF waste or rCF are neither allowed to be thermally degraded nor landfilled (EU Directive 1999/31/EC), profitable recycling and re-use concepts are urgently necessary. Currently, the market for materials based on rCF mainly consists of random mats (nonwoven) made from short fibres. The strengths of composites that can be achieved from injection-molded components and from nonwovens are between 200-404 MPa and are characterized by low performance and suitable for non-structural applications such as in aircraft and vehicle interiors. On the contrary, spinning rCF to yarn constructions offers good potential for higher CFRC material properties due to high fibre orientation and compaction of rCF. However, no investigation is reported till yet on the direct comparison of the mechanical properties of thermoplastic CFRC manufactured from virgin CF filament yarn and spun yarns from staple rCF. There is a lack of understanding on the level of performance of the composites that can be achieved from hybrid yarns consisting of rCF and PA6 fibres. In this drop back, extensive research works are being carried out at the Textile Machinery and High-Performance Material Technology (ITM) on the development of new thermoplastic CFRC from hybrid yarns consisting of rCF. For this purpose, a process chain is developed at the ITM starting from fibre preparation to hybrid yarns manufacturing consisting of staple rCF by mixing with thermoplastic fibres. The objective is to apply such hybrid yarns for the manufacturing of load bearing textile reinforced thermoplastic CFRCs. In this paper, the development of innovative multi-component core-sheath hybrid yarn structures consisting of staple rCF and polyamide 6 (PA 6) on a DREF-3000 friction spinning machine is reported. Furthermore, Unidirectional (UD) CFRCs are manufactured from the developed hybrid yarns, and the mechanical properties of the composites such as tensile and flexural properties are analyzed. The results show that the UD composite manufactured from the developed hybrid yarns consisting of staple rCF possesses approximately 80% of the tensile strength and E-module to those produced from virgin CF filament yarn. The results show a huge potential of the DREF-3000 friction spinning process to develop composites from rCF for high-performance applications.

Keywords: recycled carbon fibres, hybrid yarn, friction spinning, thermoplastic composite

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Paul J. Maher, Caoimhe O'Reilly, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics is a sub-field of agent-based modeling that focuses on people’s opinions and their evolutions over time. Despite the rapid increase in the number of publications in this field, it is still not clear how to apply these models to real-world scenarios. Indeed, there is no agreement on how people update their opinion while interacting. Furthermore, it is not clear if different topics will show the same dynamics (e.g., more polarized topics may behave differently). These problems are mostly due to the lack of experimental validation of the models. Some previous studies started bridging this gap in the literature by directly measuring people’s opinions before and after the interaction. However, these experiments force people to express their opinion as a number instead of using natural language (and then, eventually, encoding it as numbers). This is not the way people normally interact, and it may strongly alter the measured dynamics. Another limitation of these studies is that they usually average all the topics together, without checking if different topics may show different dynamics. In our work, we collected data from 200 participants on 5 unpolarized topics. Participants expressed their opinions in natural language (“agree” or “disagree”). We also measured the certainty of their answer, expressed as a number between 1 and 10. However, this value was not shown to other participants to keep the interaction based on natural language. We then showed the opinion (and not the certainty) of another participant and, after a distraction task, we repeated the measurement. To make the data compatible with opinion dynamics models, we multiplied opinion and certainty to obtain a new parameter (here called “continuous opinion”) ranging from -10 to +10 (using agree=1 and disagree=-1). We firstly checked the 5 topics individually, finding that all of them behaved in a similar way despite having different initial opinions distributions. This suggested that the same model could be applied for different unpolarized topics. We also observed that people tend to maintain similar levels of certainty, even when they changed their opinion. This is a strong violation of what is suggested from common models, where people starting at, for example, +8, will first move towards 0 instead of directly jumping to -8. We also observed social influence, meaning that people exposed with “agree” were more likely to move to higher levels of continuous opinion, while people exposed with “disagree” were more likely to move to lower levels. However, we also observed that the effect of influence was smaller than the effect of random fluctuations. Also, this configuration is different from standard models, where noise, when present, is usually much smaller than the effect of social influence. Starting from this, we built an opinion dynamics model that explains more than 80% of data variance. This model was also able to show the natural conversion of polarization from unpolarized states. This experimental approach offers a new way to build models grounded on experimental data. Furthermore, the model offers new insight into the fundamental terms of opinion dynamics models.

Keywords: experimental validation, micro-dynamics rule, opinion dynamics, update rule

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Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei

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Highway networks play a vital role in post-disaster recovery for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such networks can disrupt the recovery activities by impeding the transportation of people, cargo, and reconstruction resources. Therefore, rapid restoration of damaged bridges is of paramount importance to long-term disaster recovery. In the post-disaster recovery phase, the key to restoration scheduling for a highway network is prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. Resilience is widely used as a measure of the ability to recover with which a network can return to its pre-disaster level of functionality. In practice, highways will be temporarily blocked during the downtime of bridge restoration, leading to the decrease of highway-network functionality. The failure to take downtime effects into account can lead to overestimation of network resilience. Additionally, post-disaster recovery of highway networks is generally divided into emergency bridge repair (EBR) in the response phase and long-term bridge repair (LBR) in the recovery phase, and both of EBR and LBR are different in terms of restoration objectives, restoration duration, budget, etc. Distinguish these two phases are important to precisely quantify highway network resilience and generate suitable restoration schedules for highway networks in the recovery phase. To address the above issues, this study proposes a novel resilience quantification method for the optimization of long-term bridge repair schedules (LBRS) taking into account the impact of EBR activities and restoration downtime on a highway network’s functionality. A time-dependent integer program with recursive functions is formulated for optimally scheduling LBR activities. Moreover, since uncertainty always exists in the LBRS problem, this paper extends the optimization model from the deterministic case to the stochastic case. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. The proposed methods are tested using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that, in this case, neglecting the bridge restoration downtime can lead to approximately 15% overestimation of highway network resilience. Moreover, accounting for the impact of EBR on network functionality can help to generate a more specific and reasonable LBRS. The theoretical and practical values are as follows. First, the proposed network recovery curve contributes to comprehensive quantification of highway network resilience by accounting for the impact of both restoration downtime and EBR activities on the recovery curves. Moreover, this study can improve the highway network resilience from the organizational dimension by providing bridge managers with optimal LBR strategies.

Keywords: disaster management, highway network, long-term bridge repair schedule, resilience, restoration downtime

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Authors: Tam Viet Hoang

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With a plethora of new mobility services and payment systems found in our cities and across modern public transportation systems, several cities globally have turned to common ticketing systems to help navigate this complexity. Helping to create time and space-differentiated fare structures and tariff schemes, common ticketing systems can optimize transport utilization rates, achieve cost efficiencies, and provide key incentives to specific target groups. However, not all cities and transportation systems have enjoyed a smooth journey towards the adoption, roll-out, and servicing of common ticketing systems, with both the experiences of success and failure being attributed to a wide variety of critical factors. Using case study research as a methodology and cities as the main unit of analysis, this research will seek to address the fundamental question of “what are the critical factors for the success and failure of common ticketing systems?” Using rail/train systems as the entry point for this study will start by providing a background to the evolution of transport ticketing and justify the improvements in operational efficiency that can be achieved through common ticketing systems. Examining the socio-economic benefits of common ticketing, the research will also help to articulate the value derived for different key identified stakeholder groups. By reviewing case studies of the implementation of common ticketing systems in different cities, the research will explore lessons learned from cities with the aim to elicit factors to ensure seamless connectivity integrated e-ticketing platforms. In an increasingly digital age and where cities are now coming online, this paper seeks to unpack these critical factors, undertaking case study research drawing from literature and lived experiences. Offering us a better understanding of the enabling environment and ideal mixture of ingredients to facilitate the successful roll-out of a common ticketing system, interviews will be conducted with transport operators from several selected cities to better appreciate the challenges and strategies employed to overcome those challenges in relation to common ticketing systems. Meanwhile, as we begin to see the introduction of new mobile applications and user interfaces to facilitate ticketing and payment as part of the transport journey, we take stock of numerous policy challenges ahead and implications on city-wide and system-wide urban planning. It is hoped that this study will help to identify the critical factors for the success and failure of common ticketing systems for cities set to embark on their implementation while serving to fine-tune processes in those cities where common ticketing systems are already in place. Outcomes from the study will help to facilitate an improved understanding of common pitfalls and essential milestones towards the roll-out of a common ticketing system for railway systems, especially for emerging countries where mass rapid transit transport systems are being considered or in the process of construction.

Keywords: common ticketing, public transport, urban strategies, Bangkok, Fukuoka, Sydney

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Authors: Pinkey Yaqub

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The aim of this study was to investigate secondary (grades IX and X) students’ attitudes towards learning the English language based on the medium of instruction of the school, the gender of the students and the grade level in which they studied. A further aim was to determine students’ proficiency in the English language according to their gender, the grade level and the medium of instruction of the school. A survey was used to investigate the attitudes of secondary students towards English language learning. Simple random sampling was employed to obtain a representative sample of the target population for the research study as a comprehensive list of established English medium schools, and newly established English medium schools were available. A questionnaire ‘Attitude towards English Language Learning’ (AtELL) was adapted from a research study on Libyan secondary school students’ attitudes towards learning English language. AtELL was reviewed by experts (n=6) and later piloted on a representative sample of secondary students (n= 160). Subsequently, the questionnaire was modified - based on the reviewers’ feedback and lessons learnt during the piloting phase - and directly administered to students of grades 9 and 10 to gather information regarding their attitudes towards learning the English language. Data collection spanned a month and a half. As the data were not normally distributed, the researcher used Mann-Whitney tests to test the hypotheses formulated to investigate students’ attitudes towards learning English as well as proficiency in the language across the medium of instruction of the school, the gender of the students and the grade level of the respondents. Statistical analyses of the data showed that the students of established English medium schools exhibited a positive outlook towards English language learning in terms of the behavioural, cognitive and emotional aspects of attitude. A significant difference was observed in the attitudes of male and female students towards learning English where females showed a more positive attitude in terms of behavioural, cognitive and emotional aspects as compared to their male counterparts. Moreover, grade 10 students had a more positive attitude towards learning English language in terms of behavioural, cognitive and emotional aspects as compared to grade 9 students. Nonetheless, students of newly established English medium schools were more proficient in English as gauged by their examination scores in this subject as compared to their counterparts studying in established English medium schools. Moreover, female students were more proficient in English while students studying in grade 9 were less proficient in English than their seniors studying in grade 10. The findings of this research provide empirical evidence to future researchers wishing to explore the relationship between attitudes towards learning language and variables such as the medium of instruction of the school, gender and the grade level of the students. Furthermore, policymakers might revisit the English curriculum to formulate specific guidelines that promote a positive and gender-balanced outlook towards learning English for male and female students.

Keywords: attitude, behavioral aspect of attitude, cognitive aspect of attitude, emotional aspect of attitude

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Authors: Malcolm Richardson, Gabriele Richardson

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This paper illustrates how historical problems can be studied successfully using GIS even in cases in which data, in the modern sense, is fragmentary. The overall problem under investigation is how early (1300-1500) English schools of Common Law moved from apprenticeship training in random individual London inns run in part by clerks of the royal chancery to become what is widely called 'the Third University of England,' a recognized system of independent but connected legal inns. This paper focuses on the preparatory legal inns, called the Inns of Chancery, rather than the senior (and still existing) Inns of Court. The immediate problem studied in this paper is how the junior legal inns were organized, staffed, and located from 1292 to about 1500, and what maps tell us about the role of the chancery clerks as managers of legal inns. The authors first uncovered the names of all chancery clerks of the period, most of them unrecorded in histories, from archival sources in the National Archives, Kew. Then they matched the names with London property leases. Using ArcGIS, the legal inns and their owners were plotted on a series of maps covering the period 1292 to 1500. The results show a distinct pattern of ownership of the legal inns and suggest a narrative that would help explain why the Inns of Chancery became serious centers of learning during the fifteenth century. In brief, lower-ranking chancery clerks, always looking for sources of income, discovered by 1370 that legal inns could be a source of income. Since chancery clerks were intimately involved with writs and other legal forms, and since the chancery itself had a long-standing training system, these clerks opened their own legal inns to train fledgling lawyers, estate managers, and scriveners. The maps clearly show growth patterns of ownership by the chancery clerks for both legal inns and other London properties in the areas of Holborn and The Strand between 1450 and 1417. However, the maps also show that a royal ordinance of 1417 forbidding chancery clerks to live with lawyers, law students, and other non-chancery personnel had an immediate effect, and properties in that area of London leased by chancery clerks simply stop after 1417. The long-term importance of the patterns shown in the maps is that while the presence of chancery clerks in the legal inns likely created a more coherent education system, their removal forced the legal profession, suddenly without a hostelry managerial class, to professionalize the inns and legal education themselves. Given the number and social status of members of the legal inns, the effect on English education was to free legal education from the limits of chancery clerk education (the clerks were not practicing common lawyers) and to enable it to become broader in theory and practice, in fact, a kind of 'finishing school' for the governing (if not noble) class.

Keywords: GIS, law, London, education

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Authors: M. Qamarul Islam, Ergun Dogan, Mehmet Yazici

Abstract:

There is a growing body of evidence that non-normal data is more prevalent in nature than the normal one. Examples can be quoted from, but not restricted to, the areas of Economics, Finance and Actuarial Science. The non-normality considered here is expressed in terms of fat-tailedness and asymmetry of the relevant distribution. In this study a skew t distribution that can be used to model a data that exhibit inherent non-normal behavior is considered. This distribution has tails fatter than a normal distribution and it also exhibits skewness. Although maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by solving iteratively the likelihood equations that are non-linear in form, this can be problematic in terms of convergence and in many other respects as well. Therefore, it is preferred to use the method of modified maximum likelihood in which the likelihood estimates are derived by expressing the intractable non-linear likelihood equations in terms of standardized ordered variates and replacing the intractable terms by their linear approximations obtained from the first two terms of a Taylor series expansion about the quantiles of the distribution. These estimates, called modified maximum likelihood estimates, are obtained in closed form. Hence, they are easy to compute and to manipulate analytically. In fact the modified maximum likelihood estimates are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates, asymptotically. Even in small samples the modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be approximately the same as maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained iteratively. It is shown in this study that the modified maximum likelihood estimates are not only unbiased but substantially more efficient than the commonly used moment estimates or the least square estimates that are known to be biased and inefficient in such cases. Furthermore, in conventional regression analysis, it is assumed that the error terms are distributed normally and, hence, the well-known least square method is considered to be a suitable and preferred method for making the relevant statistical inferences. However, a number of empirical researches have shown that non-normal errors are more prevalent. Even transforming and/or filtering techniques may not produce normally distributed residuals. Here, a study is done for multiple linear regression models with random error having non-normal pattern. Through an extensive simulation it is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameters are plausibly robust to the distributional assumptions and to various data anomalies as compared to the widely used least square estimates. Relevant tests of hypothesis are developed and are explored for desirable properties in terms of their size and power. The tests based upon modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be substantially more powerful than the tests based upon least square estimates. Several examples are provided from the areas of Economics and Finance where such distributions are interpretable in terms of efficient market hypothesis with respect to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement and capital allocation, etc.

Keywords: least square estimates, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimates, modified maximum likelihood method, non-normality, robustness

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Authors: A. Drapeaux, S. Aviles, E. Garfoot

Abstract:

Stem cell injections are a promising alternative treatment for hip osteoarthritis. Current literature has focused on short-term outcomes for both knee and hip osteoarthritis; however, there is a significant gap for longitudinal benefits for hip OA and limited firm conclusions due to small sample sizes. The purpose of this prospective study was to determine longitudinal changes in pain, function, and radiographs following bone marrow concentrate injection (BMAC) into the osteoarthritic hip joint. Methods: A prospective, cross-sectional study was conducted over the course of 12 months at an orthopedic practice. The study recruited 15 osteoarthritic pre-surgical hips with mild to moderate osteoarthritic severity who were scheduled to undergo hip arthroscopy. Data was collected at both pre-operative and post-operative time frames. Data collected included: hip radiographs, i-HOT-33 questionnaire data, BMAC autologous volume, and demographics. Questionnaire data was captured using Qualtrics XM software, and participants were sent an anonymous link at the following time frames: pre-operative, 2 weeks, 6 weeks, 12 weeks, 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months. Radiographic changes and BMAC volume were collected and reviewed by an orthopedic surgeon and sent to the primary investigator. Data was exported and analyzed in IBM-SPSS. Results: A total of 15 hips from 15 participants (mean age: 49, gender: 50% males, 50% females, BMI: 29.7) were used in the final analysis. Summative i-HOT 33 mean scores significantly changed between pre-operative status and 2-6 weeks post-operative status (p <.001) and pre-operative status and 3-6 months post-operative status (p <.001). There were no significant changes between other post-operative phases or between pre-operative status and 12 months post-operative. Significant improvements were found between summative i-HOT 33 mean (p<.001), daily pain (p<.001), daily sitting (p=.02), daily distance walked (p =.003), and daily limp (p=0.03) and post-operative status (2-6 weeks). No significant differences between demographic variables (gender, age, tobacco use, or diabetes) and i-HOT 33 summative mean scores. Discussion/Implications: The purpose of this study was to determine longitudinal changes in pain and function following a hip joint bone marrow concentrate injection. Results indicate that participants experience a significant improvement in pain and function between pre-operative and 2-6 weeks and 3-6 months post-injection. Participants also self-reported a significant change in average daily pain with sitting and walking between pre-operation and 2-6 weeks post-operative. This study includes a larger sample size of hip osteoarthritis cases; however, future research is warranted to include random controlled trials with a larger sample size.

Keywords: adult stem cell, orthopedics, osteoarthritis (hip), patient outcome assessment

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Authors: E. Obreque-Slier, J. Laqui-Estaña, A. Peña-Neira, M. Medel-Marabolí

Abstract:

Wine is an important source of polyphenols. Red wines show important concentrations of nonflavonoid (gallic acid, ellagic acid, caffeic acid and coumaric acid) and flavonoid compounds [(+)-catechin, (-)-epicatechin, (+)-gallocatechin and (-)-epigallocatechin]. However, a significant variability in the quantitative and qualitative distribution of chemical constituents in wine has to be expected depending on an array of important factors, such as the varietal differences of Vitis vinifera and cultural practices. It has observed that Carménère grapes present a differential composition and evolution of phenolic compounds when compared to other varieties and specifically with Cabernet Sauvignon grapes. Likewise, among the cultural practices, the aging in contact with oak wood is a high relevance factor. Then, the extraction of different polyphenolic compounds from oak wood into wine during its ageing process produces both qualitative and quantitative changes. Recently, many new techniques have been introduced in winemaking. One of these involves putting new pieces of wood (oak chips or inner staves) into inert containers. It offers some distinct and previously unavailable flavour advantages, as well as new options in wine handling. To our best knowledge, there is not information about the behaviour of Carménère wines (Chilean emblematic cultivar) in contact with oak wood. In addition, the effect of aging time and wood product (barrels, chips or staves) on the phenolic composition in Carménère wines has not been studied. This study aims at characterizing the condensed and hydrolyzable tannins from Carménère wines during the aging with staves, chips and barrels from French oak wood. The experimental design was completely randomized with two independent assays: aging time (0-12 month) and different formats of wood (barrel, chips and staves). The wines were characterized by spectrophotometric (total tannins and fractionation of proanthocyanidins into monomers, oligomers and polymers) and HPLC-DAD (ellagitannins) analysis. The wines in contact with different products of oak wood showed a similar content of total tannins during the study, while the control wine (without oak wood) presented a lower content of these compounds. In addition, it was observed that the polymeric proanthocyanidin fraction was the most abundant, while the monomeric fraction was the less abundant fraction in all treatments in two sample. However, significative differences in each fractions were observed between wines in contact from barrel, chips, and staves in two sample dates. Finally, the wine from barrels presented the highest content of the ellagitannins from the fourth to the last sample date. In conclusion, the use of alternative formats of oak wood affects the chemical composition of wines during aging, and these enological products are an interesting alternative to contribute with tannins to wine.

Keywords: enological inputs, oak wood aging, polyphenols, red wine

Procedia PDF Downloads 154