Search results for: uncertain and correlated demand

Authors: M. Aboalazayem, Essam A. Gouda, Ahmed M. Moussa, Amr E. Flifl

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Field data collecting is considered one of the most difficult work due to the difficulty of accessing large zones such as large lakes. Also, it is well known that the cost of obtaining field data is very expensive. Remotely monitoring of lake water quality (WQ) provides an economically feasible approach comparing to field data collection. Researchers have shown that lake WQ can be properly monitored via Remote sensing (RS) analyses. Using satellite images as a method of WQ detection provides a realistic technique to measure quality parameters across huge areas. Landsat (LS) data provides full free access to often occurring and repeating satellite photos. This enables researchers to undertake large-scale temporal comparisons of parameters related to lake WQ. Satellite measurements have been extensively utilized to develop algorithms for predicting critical water quality parameters (WQPs). The goal of this paper is to use RS to derive WQ indicators in Aswan High Dam Reservoir (AHDR), which is considered Egypt's primary and strategic reservoir of freshwater. This study focuses on using Landsat8 (L-8) band surface reflectance (SR) observations to predict water-quality characteristics which are limited to Turbidity (TUR), total suspended solids (TSS), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). ArcGIS pro is used to retrieve L-8 SR data for the study region. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to derive new correlations between observed optical water-quality indicators in April and L-8 SR which were atmospherically corrected by values of various bands, band ratios, and or combinations. Field measurements taken in the month of May were used to validate WQP obtained from SR data of L-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) satellite. The findings demonstrate a strong correlation between indicators of WQ and L-8 .For TUR, the best validation correlation with OLI SR bands blue, green, and red, were derived with high values of Coefficient of correlation (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) equal 0.96 and 3.1 NTU, respectively. For TSS, Two equations were strongly correlated and verified with band ratios and combinations. A logarithm of the ratio of blue and green SR was determined to be the best performing model with values of R2 and RMSE equal to 0.9861 and 1.84 mg/l, respectively. For Chl-a, eight methods were presented for calculating its value within the study area. A mix of blue, red, shortwave infrared 1(SWR1) and panchromatic SR yielded the greatest validation results with values of R2 and RMSE equal 0.98 and 1.4 mg/l, respectively.

Keywords: remote sensing, landsat 8, nasser lake, water quality

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Authors: Edwin Javier Cortes, Surupa Shaw

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In recent years, there has been a growing emphasis on enhancing the efficiency and performance of wind and water turbines to meet the increasing demand for sustainable energy sources. One promising approach is the utilization of advanced flow control techniques to optimize aerodynamic performance. This paper explores the application of advanced flow control techniques in both wind and water turbines, aiming to maximize their efficiency and output. By manipulating the flow of air or water around the turbine blades, these techniques offer the potential to improve energy capture, reduce drag, and minimize turbulence-induced losses. The paper will review various flow control strategies, including passive and active techniques such as vortex generators, boundary layer suction, and plasma actuators. It will examine their effectiveness in optimizing turbine performance under different operating conditions and environmental factors. Furthermore, the paper will discuss the challenges and opportunities associated with implementing these techniques in practical turbine designs. It will consider factors such as cost-effectiveness, reliability, and scalability, as well as the potential impact on overall turbine efficiency and lifecycle. Through a comprehensive analysis of existing research and case studies, this paper aims to provide insights into the potential benefits and limitations of advanced flow control techniques for wind and water turbines. It will also highlight areas for future research and development, with the ultimate goal of advancing the state-of-the-art in turbine technology and accelerating the transition towards a more sustainable energy future.

Keywords: flow control, efficiency, passive control, active control

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Lormaine Anne A. Branzuela, Elysa V. Largo, Monet Concepcion M. Detras, Neil C. Concibido

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The electricity demand is still increasing, and currently, the Philippine government is investigating the feasibility of operating the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) to address the country’s energy problem. However, the lack of process safety studies on BNPP focused on the effects of hazardous substances on the integrity of the structure, equipment, and other components, have made the plant operationalization questionable to the public. The three major nuclear power plant incidents – TMI-2, Chernobyl, and Fukushima – have made many people hesitant to include nuclear energy in the energy matrix. This study focused on the safety evaluation of possible operations of a nuclear power plant installed with a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), which is similar to BNPP. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is one of the Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) techniques used for the identification of equipment failure modes and minimizing its consequences. Using the FMEA technique, this study was able to recognize 116 different failure modes in total. Upon computation and ranking of the risk priority number (RPN) and criticality rating (CR), it showed that failure of the reactor coolant pump due to earthquakes is the most critical failure mode. This hazard scenario could lead to a nuclear meltdown and radioactive release, as identified by the FMEA team. Safeguards and recommended risk reduction strategies to lower the RPN and CR were identified such that the effects are minimized, the likelihood of occurrence is reduced, and failure detection is improved.

Keywords: PHA, FMEA, nuclear power plant, bataan nuclear power plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Rafeza Begum, Mohammad Mokhlesur Rahman, Safikul Moula, Rafiqul Islam

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Potassium (K) is crucial for healthy soil and plant growth. However, K fertilization is either disregarded or poorly underutilized in Bangladesh agriculture, despite the great demand for crops. This could eventually result in a significant depletion of the soil's potassium reserves, irreversible alteration of the minerals that contain potassium, and detrimental effects on crop productivity. Soil K mining in Bangladesh is a worrying problem, and we need to evaluate it thoroughly and find remedies. A pot culture experiment was conducted in the greenhouse of Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture (BINA) using eleven soil series of Bangladesh in order to see the depletion behaviour of potassium (K) by continuous cropping using rice (var. Iratom-24) as the test crop. The soil series were Ranishankhail, Kaonia. Sonatala, Silmondi, Gopalpur, Ishurdi, Sara, Kongsha, Nunni, Lauta and Amnura on which four successive rice plants (45 days duration) were raised with (100 ppm K) or without addition of potassium. Nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur and zinc were applied as basal to all pots. Potassium application resulted in higher dry matter yield, increased K concentration and uptake in all the soils compared with no K treatment; which gradually decreased in the subsequent harvests. Furthermore, plant takes up K not only from exchangeable pool but also from non-exchangeable sites and a minimum replenishment of K from the soil reserve was observed. Continuous cropping has resulted in the depletion of available K of the soil. The result indicated that in order to sustain higher crop yield under intensive cultivation, the addition of potash fertilizer is necessary.

Keywords: potassium, exchangeable pool, depletion behavior., Soil series

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Triveni Gogoi, Rima Chatterjee

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Shear wave velocity (Vs) estimation is an important approach in the seismic exploration and characterization of a hydrocarbon reservoir. There are varying methods for prediction of S-wave velocity, if recorded S-wave log is not available. But all the available methods for Vs prediction are empirical mathematical models. Shear wave velocity can be estimated using P-wave velocity by applying Castagna’s equation, which is the most common approach. The constants used in Castagna’s equation vary for different lithologies and geological set-ups. In this study, multiple regression analysis has been used for estimation of S-wave velocity. The EMERGE module from Hampson-Russel software has been used here for generation of S-wave log. Both single attribute and multi attributes analysis have been carried out for generation of synthetic S-wave log in Upper Assam basin. Upper Assam basin situated in North Eastern India is one of the most important petroleum provinces of India. The present study was carried out using four wells of the study area. Out of these wells, S-wave velocity was available for three wells. The main objective of the present study is a prediction of shear wave velocities for wells where S-wave velocity information is not available. The three wells having S-wave velocity were first used to test the reliability of the method and the generated S-wave log was compared with actual S-wave log. Single attribute analysis has been carried out for these three wells within the depth range 1700-2100m, which corresponds to Barail group of Oligocene age. The Barail Group is the main target zone in this study, which is the primary producing reservoir of the basin. A system generated list of attributes with varying degrees of correlation appeared and the attribute with the highest correlation was concerned for the single attribute analysis. Crossplot between the attributes shows the variation of points from line of best fit. The final result of the analysis was compared with the available S-wave log, which shows a good visual fit with a correlation of 72%. Next multi-attribute analysis has been carried out for the same data using all the wells within the same analysis window. A high correlation of 85% has been observed between the output log from the analysis and the recorded S-wave. The almost perfect fit between the synthetic S-wave and the recorded S-wave log validates the reliability of the method. For further authentication, the generated S-wave data from the wells have been tied to the seismic and correlated them. Synthetic share wave log has been generated for the well M2 where S-wave is not available and it shows a good correlation with the seismic. Neutron porosity, density, AI and P-wave velocity are proved to be the most significant variables in this statistical method for S-wave generation. Multilinear regression method thus can be considered as a reliable technique for generation of shear wave velocity log in this study.

Keywords: Castagna's equation, multi linear regression, multi attribute analysis, shear wave logs

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Authors: Anne McCarthy, Anna Kim, Yin Song, Kyoo Jo, Donald Cropek, Sungmin Hong

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Corrosion prevention remains an indispensable concern across a spectrum of industries, demanding inventive and adaptable methodologies to effectively tackle the ever-evolving obstacles presented by corrosive surroundings. This abstract introduces a pioneering approach to corrosion prevention that amalgamates the distinct attributes of magneto-responsive polymers with finely adjustable hydrophobicity inspired by the structure of cicada wings, effectively deterring bacterial proliferation and biofilm formation. The proposed strategy entails the creation of an innovative array of magneto-responsive nanostructures endowed with the capacity to dynamically modulate their hydrophobic characteristics. This dynamic control over hydrophobicity facilitates active repulsion of water and corrosive agents on demand. Additionally, the cyclic motion generated by magnetic activation prevents the biofilms formation and rejection. Thus, the synergistic interplay between magneto-active nanostructures and hydrophobicity manipulation establishes a versatile defensive mechanism against diverse corrosive agents. This study introduces a novel method for corrosion prevention, harnessing the advantages of magneto-active nanostructures and the precision of hydrophobicity adjustment, resulting in water-repellency, effective biofilm removal, and offering a promising solution to handle corrosion-related challenges. We believe that the combined effect will significantly contribute to extending asset lifespan, improving safety, and reducing maintenance costs in the face of corrosion threats.

Keywords: magneto-active material, nanoimprinting, corrosion prevention, hydrophobicity

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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The proper policy handling might not able to attain the target since some of recessions, e.g., pandemic-led crises, the variables shocks of the economics. At the level of this situation, the Central bank implements the monetary policy to choose increase the exogenous expenditure and level of money supply consecutively for booster level economic growth, whether the monetary policy is relatively more effective than fiscal policy in altering real output growth of a country or both stand for relatively effective in the direction of output growth of a country. The dispute with reference to the relationship between the monetary policy and fiscal policy is centered on the inflationary penalty of the shortfall financing by the fiscal authority. The latest variables socks of economics as well as the pandemic-led crises, central banks around the world predicted just about a general dilemma in relation to increase rates to face the or decrease rates to sustain the economic movement. Whether the prices hang about fundamentally unaffected, the aggregate demand has also been hold a significantly negative attitude by the outbreak COVID-19 pandemic. To empirically investigate the effects of economics shocks associated COVID-19 pandemic, the paper considers the effectiveness of the monetary policy and fiscal policy that linked to the adjustment mechanism of different economic variables. To examine the effects of economics shock associated COVID-19 pandemic towards the effectiveness of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy in the direction of output growth of a Country, this paper uses the Simultaneous equations model under the estimation of Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Method.

Keywords: IS-LM framework, pandemic. Economics variables shocks, simultaneous equations model, output growth

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Authors: Amnon Shirizly, Ohad Dolev

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In recent years, the implementation and use of Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) parts increase. As a result, the demand for bigger parts rises along with the desire to reduce it’s the production cost. Generally, in powder bed Additive Manufacturing technology the part size is limited by the machine build volume. In order to overcome this limitation, the parts can be built in one or more machine operations and mechanically joint or weld them together. An alternative option could be a production of wrought part and built on it the AM structure (mainly to reduce costs). In both cases, the mechanical properties of the interface have to be defined and recognized. In the current study, the authors introduce guidelines on how to examine the interface between wrought alloy and powder-bed AM. The mechanical and metallurgical properties of the Ti6Al4V materials (wrought alloy and powder-bed AM) and their hybrid interface were examined. The mechanical properties gain from tensile test bars in the built direction and fracture toughness samples in various orientations. The hybrid specimens were built onto a wrought Ti6Al4V start-plate. The standard fracture toughness (CT25 samples) and hybrid tensile specimens' were heat treated and milled as a post process to final diminutions. In this Study, the mechanical tensile tests and fracture toughness properties supported by metallurgical observation will be introduced and discussed. It will show that the hybrid approach of utilizing powder bed AM onto wrought material expanding the current limitation of the future manufacturing technology.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, hybrid, fracture-toughness, powder bed

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Authors: Taramani Yadav, Gajender Kumar, R. K. Yadav, H. S. Jat

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Soil Salinity and irrigation water salinity is critical threat to enhance agricultural food production to full fill the demand of billion plus people worldwide. Salt affected soils covers 6.73 Mha in India and ~1000 Mha area around the world. Irrigation scheduling of saline water is the way to ensure food security in salt affected areas. Research experiment was conducted at ICAR-Central Soil Salinity Research Institute, Experimental Farm, Nain, Haryana, India with 36 treatment combinations in double split plot design. Three sets of treatments consisted of (i) three regimes of irrigation viz., 60, 80 and 100% (I1, I2 and I3, respectively) of crop ETc (crop evapotranspiration at identified respective stages) in main plot; (ii) four levels of irrigation water salinity (sub plot treatments) viz., 2, 4, 8 and 12 dS m-1 (iii) applications of two PBRs along with control (without PBRs) i.e. salicylic acid (G1; 1 mM) and thiourea (G2; 500 ppm) as sub-sub plot treatments. Grain yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum) was increased with less amount of high salt loaded irrigation water at the same level of salinity (2 dS m-1), the trend was I3>I2>I1 at 2 dS m-1 with 8.10 and 17.07% increase at 80 and 100% ETc, respectively compared to 60% ETc. But contrary results were obtained by increasing amount of irrigation water at same level of highest salinity (12 dS m-1) showing following trend; I1>I2>I3 at 12 dS m-1 with 9.35 and 12.26% increase at 80 and 60% ETc compared to 100% ETc. Enhancement in grain yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum) is not need to increase amount of irrigation water under saline condition, with salty irrigation water less amount of irrigation water gave the maximum wheat (Triticum aestivum) grain yield.

Keywords: Irrigation Scheduling, Saline Environment, Triticum aestivum, Yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Beate Englich, Linda Schlittenbauer, Christiane Pfeifer, Isabel Kratochvil, Michael Borte, Gabriele I. Stangl, Martin von Bergen, Thorsten Reemtsma, Irina Lehmann, Kristin M. Junge

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The worldwide production of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDC) has risen dramatically over the last decades, as so has the prevalence for obesity. Many EDCs are believed to contribute to this obesity epidemic, by enhancing adipogenesis or disrupting relevant metabolism. This effect is most tremendous in the early prenatal period when priming effects find a highly vulnerable time window. Therefore, we investigate the impact of parabens on childhood overweight development and adipogenesis in general. Parabens are ester of 4-hydroxy-benzoic acid and part of many cosmetic products or food packing. Therefore, ubiquitous exposure can be found in the westernized world, with exposure already starting during the sensitive prenatal period. We assessed maternal cosmetic product consumption, prenatal paraben exposure and infant BMI z-scores in the prospective German LINA cohort. In detail, maternal urinary concentrations (34 weeks of gestation) of methyl paraben (MeP), ethyl paraben (EtP), n-propyl paraben (PrP) and n-butyl paraben (BuP) were quantified using UPLC-MS/MS. Body weight and height of their children was assessed during annual clinical visits. Further, we investigated the direct influence of those parabens on adipogenesis in-vitro using a human mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) differentiation assay to mimic a prenatal exposure scenario. MSC were exposed to 0.1 – 50 µM paraben during the entire differentiation period. Differentiation outcome was monitored by impedance spectrometry, real-time PCR and triglyceride staining. We found that maternal cosmetic product consumption was highly correlated with urinary paraben concentrations at pregnancy. Further, prenatal paraben exposure was linked to higher BMI Z-scores in children. Our in-vitro analysis revealed that especially the long chained paraben BuP stimulates adipogenesis by increasing the expression of adipocyte specific genes (PPARγ, ADIPOQ, LPL, etc.) and triglyceride storage. Moreover, we found that adiponectin secretion is increased whereas leptin secretion is reduced under BuP exposure in-vitro. Further mechanistic analysis for receptor binding and activation of PPARγ and other key players in adipogenesis are currently in process. We conclude that maternal cosmetic product consumption is linked to prenatal paraben exposure of children and contributes to the development of infant overweight development by triggering key pathways of adipogenesis.

Keywords: adipogenesis, endocrine disruptors, paraben, prenatal exposure

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Nina Kaufmans

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Traditional therapies, utilizing spoken narratives as a primary source of intervention, are proven to be limited in effectively treating post traumatic stress disorder. Following the effects of the global pandemic of COVID-19, an increasing number of mental health consumers are beginning to experience somatically-based distress in addition to existing mental health symptoms. Moreover, the aftermath of the rapid increase in demand for mental health services has caused significant burnout in mental health professionals. This paper explores the ramifications of recent changes and challenges in the mental health demands and subsequent response and its consequences for mental health workers. We will begin by investigating the neurobiological mechanisms involved in traumatic experiences, then discuss the premises for "bottom-up" or somatically oriented psychotherapy approaches, and finally offer clinical skills and interventions for clients diagnosed with post traumatic stress disorder. In addition, we will discuss how somatically-based psychotherapy interventions implemented in sessions may decrease burnout and improve the well-being of clinicians. We will discuss how the integration of somatically-based interventions into counseling would increase the effectiveness of mental health recovery and sustain remission while simultaneously providing opportunities for self-care for mental health professionals.

Keywords: somatic psychotherapy interventions, trauma counseling, preventing and treating burnout, adults with PTSD, bottom-up skills, the effectiveness of trauma treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Tannia Vindel, Carlos Mejia, Damaris Araujo, Carlos Velasquez, Darlin Trejo

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The DWDM (Dense Wavelenght Division Multiplexing) is in constant growth around the world by consumer demand to meet their needs. Since its inception in this operation arises the need for a system which enable us to expand the communication of an entire nation to improve the computing trends of their societies according to their customs and geographical location. The Honduran Company of Telecommunications (HONDUTEL), provides the internet services and data transport technology with a PDH and SDH, which represents in the Republic of Honduras C. A., the option of viability for the consumer in terms of purchase value and its ease of acquisition; but does not have the efficiency in terms of technological advance and represents an obstacle that limits the long-term socio-economic development in comparison with other countries in the region and to be able to establish a competition between telecommunications companies that are engaged in this heading. For that reason we propose to establish a new technological trend implemented in Europe and that is applied in our country that allows us to provide a data transfer in broadband as it is DWDM, in this way we will have a stable service and quality that will allow us to compete in this globalized world, and that must be replaced by one that would provide a better service and which must be in the forefront. Once implemented the DWDM is build upon the existing resources, such as the equipment used, and you will be given life to a new stage providing a business image to the Republic of Honduras C,A, as a nation, to ensure the data transport and broadband internet to a meaningful relationship. Same benefits in the first instance to existing customers and to all the institutions were bidden to these public and private need of such services.

Keywords: demultiplexers, light detectors, multiplexers, optical amplifiers, optical fibers, PDH, SDH

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Kamran Baksh Soomro, Amin Talei, Sina Alaghmand

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Water scarcity has exacerbated in the last couple of decades; it is incumbent on agriculture to maximize the use of water of all qualities. The drip irrigation system practice has shown a vast increase in profit and research interests in the last two decades. However, the application of this system is still limited. The two years field experiment was conducted with three replications at Malir, Karachi (a semi-arid region) in Pakistan. The aim was to evaluate the effects of two qualities of irrigation water IT1 (EC 0.56 dS.m⁻¹) and IT2 (EC 2.89 dS.m⁻¹) on water use efficiency. To achieve the aim, bitter gourd was grown under the drip irrigation system in 2016-17. The uniformity co-efficient (UC) ranged from 93 to 96%. Water use efficiency, of 1.60 and 1.21 kg.m⁻³ under IT1 was recorded higher in season 1 and 2. Using t-test at 5% significance level, the crop yield was higher in both seasons under IT1 compared to IT2. Using pairwise t-test at 5% significance level, the parameters related with the quality of fruit, like length, weight, and diameter, were higher in IT1 than IT2 in all plants; and in both seasons. A correlational study was also conducted to observe the trends in the variables associated with both irrigation treatments for the two seasons. Results showed that most of the parameters exhibited a similar linear trend in both the seasons. The study concluded that bitter gourd crop could be grown successfully in sandy loam using drip irrigation system, supplying saline ground-water. The sustainable use of saline irrigation water should be utilized for vegetable cultivation to meet the food demand in the rural areas of Pakistan.

Keywords: uniformity co-efficient, water use efficiency, drip irrigation, ground-water, t-test, correlation

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Authors: Guler D. Uzel, Andrew G. Parker, Robert L. Mach, Adly Abd-Alla

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Several tsetse fly species (Diptera: Glossinidae) in natural or colonized populations can be infected with the salivary gland hypertrophy virus (SGHV), a circular dsDNA virus (Hytrosaviridae). The virus infection is mainly asymptomatic but, in some species under certain conditions, the infection can produce salivary gland hypertrophy (SGH) symptoms. In the laboratory colonized tsetse, flies with SGH have reduced fertility, which negatively affects colony performance. Therefore, a high prevalence of SGH in insect mass rearing represents a major challenge for tsetse control using the sterile insect technique. The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of Glossina pallidipes SGHV infection in various tsetse species on mortality and productivity and its impact on the symbiotic bacteria. Hypertropied salivary glands (SG) were collected from G. pallidipes into phosphate buffered saline (PBS) to prepare suspension; 2 µl aliquots were injected into adults of several tsetse species (G. pallidipes (Gp), G. p. gambiensis (Gpg), G. brevipalpis (Gb), G. morsitans morsitans (Gmm), G. morsitans centralis (Gmc) and G. fuscipes (Gf)) and the change in virus and symbiont titers were analyzed using qPCR. The development of SGH in the F1 was detected by dissection 10 days after emergence and virus infection was confirmed by PCR. The impact of virus infection on fly mortality and productivity was recorded. 2 µl aliquots were also injected into 3rd instar larvae of the different species and the adult SGs assayed by PCR for virus. Virus positive SGs from each species were homogenized in PBS and pooled within species for injection into larvae of the same species. Flies injected with PBS were used as control. Injecting teneral flies with SGHV caused increasing virus titer over time in all species but no SGH was detected. Dissection of the F1 also showed no development of SGH except in Gp (the homologous host). Injection of SGHV did not have any impact on the prevalence of the tsetse symbionts, but an increase in Sodalis titer was observed correlated with fly age regardless of virus infection. The virus infection had a negative impact on productivity and mortality. SGHV injection into larvae of the different species produced SGHV infected glands in the adults determined by PCR with a rate of 60%, 27%, 16%, 7% and 7% for Gp, Gf, Gpg, Gmm and Gmc, respectively. Virus positive SGs observed in the heterologous species were smaller than SGH found in Gp. No virus positive SG was detected by PCR in Gb and no SGH was observed in any adults except in Gp. Injecting virus suspension from the virus positive SGs into conspecific larvae did not produce any adults with infected SGs (except in Gp). SGHV can infect all tested tsetse species. Although the virus can infect and increase in titer in other tsetse species and affect fly mortality and productivity, no vertical virus transmission was observed in other tsetse species with might indicate a transmission barrier in these species, and virus collected from flies injected as larvae was not infective by injection.

Keywords: DNA viruses, glossina, hytrosaviridae, symbiotic bacteria, tsetse

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Authors: Maitri Dave

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Coronaviruses (CoV) is such infectious virus which has impacted globally in a more dangerous manner causing severe lung problems and leaving behind more serious diseases among the people. This pandemic has affected globally and created severe respiratory problems, and damaged the lungs. India has reported the first case of COVID-19 in January 2020. The first wave of COVID-19 took place from April to September of 2020. Soon after, a second peak is also noticed in the month of March 2021, which in turn becomes more dangerous due to a lack of supply of medical equipment. It created resource deficiency globally, specifically in India, where some necessary life-saving equipment like ventilators and oxygenators were not sufficient to cater to the demand-supply ratio effectively. Through carefully examining such a situation, India began to execute the process of vaccination in the month of January 2021 and successfully administered 25,46,71,259 doses of vaccines till now, which is only 15.5% of the total population while only 3.6% of the total population is fully vaccinated. India has authorized the British Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine (Covishield), the Indian BBV152 (Covaxin) vaccine, and the Russian Sputnik V vaccine for emergency use. In the present study, we have collected all the data state wisely of both first and second wave and analyzed them using MS Excel Version 2019 and SPSS Statistics Version 26. Following the trends, we have predicted the characteristics of the upcoming third wave of COVID-19 and recommended some strategies, early actions, and measures that can be taken by the public health system in India to combat the third wave more effectively.

Keywords: COVID-19, vaccination, Covishiled, Coronavirus

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Weiliang Gong, Lissa Gomes, Lucile Raymond, Hui Xu, Werner Lutze, Ian L. Pegg

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Alkali-activated materials, particularly geopolymers, have attracted much interest in academia. Commercial applications are on the rise, as well. Geopolymers are produced typically by a reaction of one or two aluminosilicates with an alkaline solution at room temperature. Fly ash is an important aluminosilicate source. However, using low-Ca fly ash, the byproduct of burning hard or black coal reacts and sets slowly at room temperature. The development of mechanical durability, e.g., compressive strength, is slow as well. The use of fly ashes with relatively high contents ( > 6%) of unburned carbon, i.e., high loss on ignition (LOI), is particularly disadvantageous as well. This paper will show to what extent these impediments can be mitigated by mixing the fly ash with one or two more aluminosilicate sources. The fly ash used here is generated at the Orlando power plant (Florida, USA). It is low in Ca ( < 1.5% CaO) and has a high LOI of > 6%. The additional aluminosilicate sources are metakaolin and blast furnace slag. Binary fly ash-metakaolin and ternary fly ash-metakaolin-slag geopolymers were prepared. Properties of geopolymer pastes before and after setting have been measured. Fresh mixtures of aluminosilicates with an alkaline solution were studied by Vicat needle penetration, rheology, and isothermal calorimetry up to initial setting and beyond. The hardened geopolymers were investigated by SEM/EDS and the compressive strength was measured. Initial setting (fluid to solid transition) was indicated by a rapid increase in yield stress and plastic viscosity. The rheological times of setting were always smaller than the Vicat times of setting. Both times of setting decreased with increasing replacement of fly ash with blast furnace slag in a ternary fly ash-metakaolin-slag geopolymer system. As expected, setting with only Orlando fly ash was the slowest. Replacing 20% fly ash with metakaolin shortened the set time. Replacing increasing fractions of fly ash in the binary system by blast furnace slag (up to 30%) shortened the time of setting even further. The 28-day compressive strength increased drastically from < 20 MPa to 90 MPa. The most interesting finding relates to the calorimetric measurements. The use of two or three aluminosilicates generated significantly more heat (20 to 65%) than the calculated from the weighted sum of the individual aluminosilicates. This synergetic heat contributes or may be responsible for most of the increase of compressive strength of our binary and ternary geopolymers. The synergetic heat effect may be also related to increased incorporation of calcium in sodium aluminosilicate hydrate to form a hybrid (N,C)A-S-H) gel. The time of setting will be correlated with heat release and maximum heat flow.

Keywords: alkali-activated materials, binary and ternary geopolymers, blends of fly ash, metakaolin and blast furnace slag, rheology, synergetic heats

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Maria Do Carmo Baracho De Alencar

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Back pain is considered a worldwide public health problem and has led to numerous work-related absence from work and public spending on rehabilitation, as well as difficulties in the process of professional rehabilitation and return to work. Also, the rehabilitation of workers is one of the great challenges today and for the field of Workers' Health in Brazil. Aim: To investigate the procedures related to the professional rehabilitation of insured workers affected by chronic low back pain, based on the perceptions of professional counselors. Methods: A list of related professional counselors was obtained from the Professional Rehabilitation Coordination of the Baixada Santista (SP) region, and from the Social Security National Institute of Brazil, and in which cities they worked. Semistructured and individual interview was scheduled, based on a pre-elaborated script, containing questions about procedures, experiences at work and feelings. The interviews were recorded and transcribed in full for content analysis. Results: Ten (10) professional counselors of both genders and from nine (9) cities from the Baixada Santista region participated in the study. Aged between 31 and 64 years, and time in service between 4 and 38 years. Only one of the professionals was graduaded in Psychology. Among the testimonies emerged the high demand of work, the lack of interest of companies, medical authority, the social helplessness after rehabilitation process, difficulty in assessing invisible pain, and suffering, anguish, and frustration at work, between others. Conclusion: The study contributes to reflections about the importance of interdisciplinary actions and the Psychology in the processes of professional rehabilitation and readaptation in the process of return to work.

Keywords: low back pain, rehabilitation, work, occupational health

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Ye Ling, Ruan Haihui

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Aqueous Zn-ion hybrid supercapacitors (AZHSCs) pertain to a new type of electrochemical energy storage device that has received considerable attention. They integrate the advantages of high-energy Zn-ion batteries and high-power supercapacitors to meet the demand for low-cost, long-term durability, and high safety. Nevertheless, the challenge caused by the finite ion adsorption/desorption capacity of carbon electrodes gravely limits their energy densities. This work describes titanium nitride@nitrogen-doped carbon nanocage (TiN@NCNC) composite cathodes for AZHSCs to achieve a greatly improved energy density, and the composites can be facile synthesized based on the calcination of a mixture of tetrabutyl titanate and zeolitic imidazolate framework-8 in argon atmosphere. The resulting composites are featured by the ultra-fine TiN particles dispersed uniformly on the NCNC surfaces, enhancing the Zn2+ storage capabilities. Using TiN@NCNC cathodes, the AZHSCs can operate stably with a high energy density of 154 Wh kg-¹ at a specific power of 270 W kg-¹ and achieve a remarkable capacity retention of 88.9% after 104 cycles at 5 A g-¹. At an extreme specific power of 8.7 kW kg-1, the AZHSCs can retain an energy density of 97.2 Wh kg-1. With these results, we stress that the TiN@NCNC cathodes render high-performance AZHSCs, and the facile one-pot method can easily be scaled up, which enables AZHSCs a new energy-storage component for managing intermitted renewable energy sources.

Keywords: Zn-ion hybrid supercapacitors, ion absorption/desorption reactions, titanium nitride, zeolitic imidazolate framework-8

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: Erica T. R. Mendonça, Caroline M. B. de Araujo, Filho, Osvaldo Chiavone, Sobrinho, Maurício A. da Motta

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Oil and gas exploration is an essential activity for modern society, although the supply of its global demand has caused enough damage to the environment, mainly due to produced water generation, which is an effluent associated with the oil and gas produced during oil extraction. It is the aim of this study to evaluate the treatment of produced water, in order to reduce its oils and greases content (OG), by using flotation as a pre-treatment, combined with oxidation for the remaining organic load degradation. Thus, there has been tested Advanced Oxidation Process (AOP) using both Fenton and photo-Fenton reactions, as well as a chemical oxidation treatment using sodium ferrate(VI), Na₂[FeO₄], as a strong oxidant. All the studies were carried out using real samples of produced water from petroleum industry. The oxidation process using ferrate(VI) ion was studied based on factorial experimental designs. The factorial design was used in order to study how the variables pH, temperature and concentration of Na₂[FeO₄] influences the O&G levels. For the treatment using ferrate(VI) ion, the results showed that the best operating point is obtained when the temperature is 28 °C, pH 3, and a 2000 mg.L^-1 solution of Na₂[FeO₄] is used. This experiment has achieved a final O&G level of 4.7 mg.L^-1, which means 94% percentage removal efficiency of oils and greases. Comparing Fenton and photo-Fenton processes, it was observed that the Fenton reaction did not provide good reduction of O&G (around 20% only). On the other hand, a degradation of approximately 80.5% of oil and grease was obtained after a period of seven hours of treatment using photo-Fenton process, which indicates that the best process combination has occurred between the flotation and the photo-Fenton reaction using solar radiation, with an overall removal efficiency of O&G of approximately 89%.

Keywords: advanced oxidation process, ferrate (VI) ion, oils and greases removal, produced water treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Francisco J. Cedano, Laura M. Pinzón, Camila I. Castro, Felipe Salcedo, Juan P. Casas, Juan C. Briceño

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Complex fractures located in articular surfaces are challenging to treat and their reduction with conventional treatments could compromise the functionality of the affected limb. An adhesive material to treat those fractures is desirable for orthopedic surgeons. This adhesive must be biocompatible and have a high adhesion to bone surface in an aqueous environment. The proposed adhesive is based on chitosan, given its adhesive and biocompatibility properties. Chitosan is mixed with calcium carbonate and hydroxyapatite, which contribute to structural support and a gel like behavior, and glutaraldehyde is used as a cross-linking agent to keep the adhesive mechanical performance in aqueous environment. This work aims to evaluate the rheological, adhesion strength and biocompatibility properties of the proposed adhesive using in vitro tests. The gelification process of the adhesive was monitored by oscillatory rheometry in an ARG-2 TA Instruments rheometer, using a parallel plate geometry of 22 mm and a gap of 1 mm. Time sweep experiments were conducted at 1 Hz frequency, 1% strain and 37°C from 0 to 2400 s. Adhesion strength is measured using a butt joint test with bovine cancellous bone fragments as substrates. The test is conducted at 5 min, 20min and 24 hours after curing the adhesive under water at 37°C. Biocompatibility is evaluated by a cytotoxicity test in a fibroblast cell culture using MTT assay and SEM. Rheological results concluded that the average gelification time of the adhesive is 820±107 s, also it reaches storage modulus magnitudes up to 106 Pa; The adhesive show solid-like behavior. Butt joint test showed 28.6 ± 9.2 kPa of tensile bond strength for the adhesive cured for 24 hours. Also there was no significant difference in adhesion strength between 20 minutes and 24 hours. MTT showed 70 ± 23 % of active cells at sixth day of culture, this percentage is estimated respect to a positive control (only cells with culture medium and bovine serum). High vacuum SEM observation permitted to localize and study the morphology of fibroblasts presented in the adhesive. All captured fibroblasts presented in SEM typical flatted structure with filopodia growth attached to adhesive surface. This project reports an adhesive based on chitosan that is biocompatible due to high active cells presented in MTT test and these results were correlated using SEM. Also, it has adhesion properties in conditions that model the clinical application, and the adhesion strength do not decrease between 5 minutes and 24 hours.

Keywords: bioadhesive, bone adhesive, calcium carbonate, chitosan, hydroxyapatite, glutaraldehyde

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: Songul Cinaroglu

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Regional planning in health has gained speed for developing countries in recent years. In Turkey, 89 different Public Hospital Unions (PHUs) were conducted based on provincial levels. In this study technical efficiencies of 89 PHUs were examined by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and machine learning techniques by dividing them into two clusters in terms of similarities of input and output indicators. Number of beds, physicians and nurses determined as input variables and number of outpatients, inpatients and surgical operations determined as output indicators. Before performing DEA, PHUs were grouped into two clusters. It is seen that the first cluster represents PHUs which have higher population, demand and service density than the others. The difference between clusters was statistically significant in terms of all study variables (p ˂ 0.001). After clustering, DEA was performed for general and for two clusters separately. It was found that 11% of PHUs were efficient in general, additionally 21% and 17% of them were efficient for the first and second clusters respectively. It is seen that PHUs, which are representing urban parts of the country and have higher population and service density, are more efficient than others. Random forest decision tree graph shows that number of inpatients is a determinative factor of efficiency of PHUs, which is a measure of service density. It is advisable for public health policy makers to use statistical learning methods in resource planning decisions to improve efficiency in health care.

Keywords: public hospital unions, efficiency, data envelopment analysis, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Elizabeth Patricia Beck

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Stepping into various English as foreign language classrooms, one will see some fundamental similarities. There will likely be groups of students working collaboratively, possibly sitting at tables together. They will be using a set coursebook or photocopies of materials developed by publishers or the teacher. The teacher will be carefully monitoring students’ behaviour and progress. The teacher will also likely be insisting that the students only speak English together, possibly having implemented a complex penalty and award systems to encourage this. This is communicative language teaching and it is commonly how foreign languages are taught around the world. Recently, there has been much interest in the codeswitching behaviour of learners in foreign or second language classrooms. It is a significant topic as it relates to second language acquisition theory, language teaching training and policy, and student expectations and classroom practice. Generally in an English as a foreign language context, an ‘English Only’ policy is the norm. This is based on historical factors, socio-political influence and theories surrounding language learning. The trend, however, is shifting and, based on these same factors, a re-examination of language use in the foreign language classroom is taking place. This paper reports the findings of an examination into the codeswitching behaviour of learners with a shared native language in an English classroom. Specifically, it addresses the question of classroom code-switching by adult learners in the EFL classroom during student-to-student, spoken interaction. Three generic categories of code switching are proposed based on published research and classroom practice. Italian adult learners at three levels were observed and patterns of language use were identified, recorded and analysed using the proposed categories. After observations were completed, a questionnaire was distributed to the students focussing on attitudes and opinions around language choice in the EFL classroom, specifically, the usefulness of L1 for specific functions in the classroom. The paper then investigates the relationship between learners’ foreign language proficiency and the frequency and type of code-switching that they engaged in, and the relationship between learners’ attitudes to classroom code-switching and their behaviour. Results show that code switching patterns underwent changes as the students’ level of English language proficiency improved, and that students’ attitudes towards code-switching generally correlated with their behaviour with some exceptions, however. Finally, the discussion focusses on the details of the language produced in observation, possible influencing factors that may affect the frequency and type of code switching that took place, and additional influencing factors that may affect students’ attitudes towards code switching in the foreign language classroom. An evaluation of the limitations of this study is offered and some suggestions are made for future research in this field of study.

Keywords: code-switching, EFL, second language aquisition, adult learners

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Daniel Pinheiro Da Silva Junior, Aline Paes, Daniel De Oliveira, Christiano Lacerda Ghuerren, Marcio Duran

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The Courts of Accounts are institutions responsible for overseeing and point out irregularities of Public Administration expenses. They have a high demand for processes to be analyzed, whose decisions must be grounded on severity laws. Despite the existing large amount of processes, there are several cases reporting similar subjects. Thus, previous decisions on already analyzed processes can be a precedent for current processes that refer to similar topics. Identifying similar topics is an open, yet essential task for identifying similarities between several processes. Since the actual amount of topics is considerably large, it is tedious and error-prone to identify topics using a pure manual approach. This paper presents a tool based on Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing to assists in building a labeled dataset. The tool relies on Topic Modelling with Latent Dirichlet Allocation to find the topics underlying a document followed by Jensen Shannon distance metric to generate a probability of similarity between documents pairs. Furthermore, in a case study with a corpus of decisions of the Rio de Janeiro State Court of Accounts, it was noted that data pre-processing plays an essential role in modeling relevant topics. Also, the combination of topic modeling and a calculated distance metric over document represented among generated topics has been proved useful in helping to construct a labeled base of similar and non-similar document pairs.

Keywords: courts of accounts, data labelling, document similarity, topic modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Helene Thieblemont, Fariborz Haghighat

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Energy storage systems play a crucial role in decreasing building energy consumption during peak periods and expand the use of renewable energies in buildings. To provide a high building thermal performance, the energy storage system has to be properly controlled to insure a good energy performance while maintaining a satisfactory thermal comfort for building’s occupant. In the case of passive discharge storages, defining in advance the required amount of energy is required to avoid overheating in the building. Consequently, anticipatory supervisory control strategies have been developed forecasting future energy demand and production to coordinate systems. Anticipatory supervisory control strategies are based on some predictions, mainly of the weather forecast. However, if the forecasted hourly outdoor temperature may be found online with a high accuracy, solar radiations predictions are most of the time not available online. To estimate them, this paper proposes an advanced approach based on the forecast of weather conditions. Several methods to correlate hourly weather conditions forecast to real hourly solar radiations are compared. Results show that using weather conditions forecast allows estimating with an acceptable accuracy solar radiations of the next day. Moreover, this technique allows obtaining hourly data that may be used for building models. As a result, this solar radiation prediction model may help to implement model-based controller as Model Predictive Control.

Keywords: anticipatory control, model predictive control, solar radiation forecast, thermal storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Pawitchaya Srijaiwong, Surin Khomfoi

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There are several solutions to supply electricity to an island in Thailand such as diesel generation, submarine power cable, and renewable energy power generation. However, each alternative has its own limitation like fuel and pollution of diesel generation, submarine power cable length resulting in loss of cable and cost of investment, and potential of renewable energy in the local area. This paper shows microgrid system which is a new alternative for power supply to an island. It integrates local power plant from renewable energy, energy storage system, and microgrid controller. The suitable renewable energy power generation on an island is selected from geographic location and potential evaluation. Thus, photovoltaic system and hydro power plant are taken into account. The capacity of energy storage system is also estimated by transient stability study in order to supply electricity demand sufficiently under normal condition. Microgrid controller plays an important role in conducting, communicating and operating for both sources and loads on an island so that its functions are discussed in this study. The conceptual design of microgrid operation is investigated in order to analyze the reliability and power quality. The result of this study shows that microgrid is able to operate in parallel with the main grid and in case of islanding. It is applicable for electricity supply to an island and a remote area. The advantages of operating microgrid on an island include the technical aspect like improving reliability and quality of power system and social aspects like outage cost saving and CO₂ reduction.

Keywords: energy storage, islanding, microgrid, renewable energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Syeda Fahria Hoque Mimmi, Aparna Islam

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Genetically engineered (GE) plants are the need of time for increased demand for food. A complete set of regulations need to be followed from the development of a GE plant to its release into the environment. The whole regulation system is categorized into separate stages for maintaining the proper biosafety. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is one of such crucial stages in the whole process. ERA identifies potential risks and their impacts through science-based evaluation where it is done in a case-by-case study. All the countries which deal with GE plants follow specific guidelines to conduct a successful ERA. In this study, ERA guidelines of 4 developing and 4 developed countries, including Bangladesh, were compared. ERA guidelines of countries such as India, Canada, Australia, the European Union, Argentina, Brazil, and the US were considered as a model to conduct the comparison study with Bangladesh. Initially, ten parameters were detected to compare the required data and information among all the guidelines. Surprisingly, an adequate amount of data and information requirements (e.g., if the intended modification/new traits of interest has been achieved or not, the growth habit of GE plants, consequences of any potential gene flow upon the cultivation of GE plants to sexually compatible plant species, potential adverse effects on the human health, etc.) matched between all the countries. However, a few differences in data requirement (e.g., agronomic conventions of non-transformed plants, applicants should clearly describe experimental procedures followed, etc.) were also observed in the study. Moreover, it was found that only a few countries provide instructions on the quality of the data used for ERA. If these similarities are recognized in a more framed manner, then the approval pathway of GE plants can be shared.

Keywords: GE plants, ERA, harmonization, ERA guidelines, Information and data requirements

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Stephanie Remedios, Linda Veronica Rios

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Background. Pediatric obesity is a serious health problem linked to multiple physical diseases and ailments, including diabetes, heart disease, and joint issues. While research has shown pediatric obesity can bring about an array of physical illnesses, it is less known how such a condition can affect children’s cognitive development. With childhood overweight and obesity prevalence rates on the rise, it is essential to understand the scope of their cognitive consequences. The present review of the literature tested the hypothesis that poor physical health, such as childhood obesity or malnutrition, negatively impacts a child’s cognitive development. Methodology. A systematic review was conducted to determine the relationship between poor physical health and lower cognitive functioning in children ages 4-16. Electronic databases were searched for studies dating back to ten years. The following databases were used: Science Direct, FIU Libraries, and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria consisted of peer-reviewed academic articles written in English from 2012 to 2022 that analyzed the relationship between childhood malnutrition and obesity on cognitive development. A total of 17,000 articles were obtained, of which 16,987 were excluded for not addressing the cognitive implications exclusively. Of the acquired articles, 13 were retained. Results. Research suggested a significant connection between diet and cognitive development. Both diet and physical activity are strongly correlated with higher cognitive functioning. Cognitive domains explored in this work included learning, memory, attention, inhibition, and impulsivity. IQ scores were also considered objective representations of overall cognitive performance. Studies showed physical activity benefits cognitive development, primarily for executive functioning and language development. Additionally, children suffering from pediatric obesity or malnutrition were found to score 3-10 points lower in IQ scores when compared to healthy, same-aged children. Conclusion. This review provides evidence that the presence of physical activity and overall physical health, including appropriate diet and nutritional intake, has beneficial effects on cognitive outcomes. The primary conclusion from this research is that childhood obesity and malnutrition show detrimental effects on cognitive development in children, primarily with learning outcomes. Assuming childhood obesity and malnutrition rates continue their current trade, it is essential to understand the complete physical and psychological implications of obesity and malnutrition in pediatric populations. Given the limitations encountered through our research, further studies are needed to evaluate the areas of cognition affected during childhood.

Keywords: childhood malnutrition, childhood obesity, cognitive development, cognitive functioning

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Xi Liu, Fan Yuan

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In the evolving landscape of physics-based machine learning (PBML), particularly within fluid dynamics and its applications in electromechanical engineering, robot vision, and robot learning, achieving precision and alignment with researchers' specific needs presents a formidable challenge. In response, this work proposes a methodology that integrates neural transformation with a modified smoothed particle hydrodynamics model for generating transformed 3D fluid simulations. This approach is useful for nanoscale science, where the unique and complex behaviors of viscoelastic medium demand accurate neurally-transformed simulations for materials understanding and manipulation. In electromechanical engineering, the method enhances the design and functionality of fluid-operated systems, particularly microfluidic devices, contributing to advancements in nanomaterial design, drug delivery systems, and more. The proposed approach also aligns with the principles of PBML, offering advantages such as multi-fluid stylization and consistent particle attribute transfer. This capability is valuable in various fields where the interaction of multiple fluid components is significant. Moreover, the application of neurally-transformed hydrodynamical models extends to manufacturing processes, such as the production of microelectromechanical systems, enhancing efficiency and cost-effectiveness. The system's ability to perform neural transfer on 3D fluid scenes using a deep learning algorithm alongside physical models further adds a layer of flexibility, allowing researchers to tailor simulations to specific needs across scientific and engineering disciplines.

Keywords: physics-based machine learning, robot vision, robot learning, hydrodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Oliver Commichau, Richard Krimm, Bernd-Arno Behrens

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A growing demand on the production rate of modern presses leads to higher stroke rates. Commonly used material feeding devices for presses like grippers and roll-feeding systems can only achieve high stroke rates along with high gripper forces, to avoid stick-slip. These forces are limited by the sensibility of the surfaces of the workpieces. Stick-slip leads to scratches on the surface and false positioning of the workpiece. In this paper, a new contactless feeding device is presented, which develops higher feeding force without damaging the surface of the workpiece through gripping forces. It is based on the principle of the linear induction motor. A primary part creates a magnetic field and induces eddy currents in the electrically conductive material. A Lorentz-Force applies to the workpiece in feeding direction as a mutual reaction between the eddy-currents and the magnetic induction. In this study, the FEA model of this approach is shown. The calculation of this model was used to identify the influence of various design parameters on the performance of the feeder and thus showing the promising capabilities and limits of this technology. In order to validate the study, a prototype of the feeding device has been built. An experimental setup was used to measure pulling forces and placement accuracy of the experimental feeder in order to give an outlook of a potential industrial application of this approach.

Keywords: conductive material, contactless feeding, linear induction, Lorentz-Force

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

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We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

Procedia PDF Downloads 502