Search results for: big data in higher education

Authors: Hassan Sheikh, Mehdi Nilipour, Amiraslan Fila

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Many conventional town planning processes do little to give children and young people a voice on what is important about the urban environment. As a result of paying little attention to the children, their physical, social and mental needs are hardly met in urban environments. Therefore, urban spaces are impotent to attract children, while their recreational space has been confined to home or virtual spaces. Since children are just taking the first steps to learn the world beyond house borders, their living environment will profoundly influence almost all aspects of their lives. This puts a great deal of responsibility on the shoulders of planners, who need to balance a number of different issues in urban design to make places more child-friendly. The main purpose of present research is to analyze and plan a child-friendly environment in an on-going urban settlement development for the benefit of all residents. Assessing children’s needs and regard them in development strategies and policies will help to “plan for children”. Following this purpose, based on child-friendly environment studies, indicators of child-friendly environments were collected. Then three distinct characteristics of case study, which are being under-construction, lack of social ties between dwellers and high-rise building, determined seven indicators included basic services, Urban and environmental qualities, Family, kin, peers and community, Sense of belonging and continuity, participation, Safety, security and freedom of movement and human scale. With the survey, Informal observation and participation in small communities, essential data has been collected and analyzed by SPSS software. The field study is Shahid-Keshvari town in Isfahan, Iran. Eighty-six middle childhood, children (ages 8-13) participated. The results show Children's satisfaction is correlated with basic services and the quality of the environment, social environment and the safety and security. The considerable number of children and youth (55%) like to live somewhere other than the town. Satisfaction and sense of belonging and continuity have a strong inverse correlation with age. In other words, as age increases, satisfaction and consequently a sense of belonging will be reduced; thus children and youth consider their future somewhere out of the town. The main reason for dissatisfaction was the basic services and social environment. More than half of children (55%) expressed their wish to develop basic services in terms of availability, hierarchy, and quality. Among all recreational places, children showed more interest to the parks. About three-quarters (76%) considered building a park as a crucial item for residents. The significant number of children (54%) want to have a relationship with more friends. This could be due to the serious shortage of the leisure spaces such as parks or playgrounds. Also, the space around the house or space between the apartments has not been designed for play or children’s activities. Moreover, the presence of strangers and construction workers have a negative impact on children's sense of peace and security; 60% of children are afraid of theft and 36% of children found strangers as a menace. The analysis of children’s issues and suggestions provides an insight to plan and design of child-friendly environment in new towns.

Keywords: child-friendly city (CFC), child-friendly environment, child participation, under-construction environment, Isfahan Shahid-Keshvari Town

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Authors: Hari K. Adhikari, Keshab Sharma, K. C. Apil

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The Gorkha Nepal earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 hit the central region of Nepal on April 25, 2015; with the epicenter about 77 km northwest of Kathmandu Valley. This paper aims to explore challenges of reconstruction in the rural earthquake-stricken areas of Nepal. The Gorkha earthquake on April 25, 2015, has significantly affected the livelihood of people and overall economy in Nepal, causing severe damage and destruction in central Nepal including nation’s capital. A larger part of the earthquake affected area is difficult to access with rugged terrain and scattered settlements, which posed unique challenges and efforts on a massive scale reconstruction and rehabilitation. 800 thousand buildings were affected leaving 8 million people homeless. Challenge of reconstruction of optimum 800 thousand houses is arduous for Nepal in the background of its turmoil political scenario and weak governance. With significant actors involved in the reconstruction process, no appreciable relief has reached to the ground, which is reflected over the frustration of affected people. The 2015 Gorkha earthquake is one of most devastating disasters in the modern history of Nepal. Best of our knowledge, there is no comprehensive study on reconstruction after disasters in modern Nepal, which integrates the necessary information to deal with challenges and opportunities of reconstructions. The study was conducted using qualitative content analysis method. Thirty engineers and ten social mobilizes working for reconstruction and more than hundreds local social workers, local party leaders, and earthquake victims were selected arbitrarily. Information was collected through semi-structured interviews and open-ended questions, focus group discussions, and field notes, with no previous assumption. Author also reviewed literature and document reviews covering academic and practitioner studies on challenges of reconstruction after earthquake in developing countries such as 2001 Gujarat earthquake, 2005 Kashmir earthquake, 2003 Bam earthquake and 2010 Haiti earthquake; which have very similar building typologies, economic, political, geographical, and geological conditions with Nepal. Secondary data was collected from reports, action plans, and reflection papers of governmental entities, non-governmental organizations, private sector businesses, and the online news. This study concludes that inaccessibility, absence of local government, weak governance, weak infrastructures, lack of preparedness, knowledge gap and manpower shortage, etc. are the key challenges of the reconstruction after 2015 earthquake in Nepal. After scrutinizing different challenges and issues, study counsels that good governance, integrated information, addressing technical issues, public participation along with short term and long term strategies to tackle with technical issues are some crucial factors for timely and quality reconstruction in context of Nepal. Sample collected for this study is relatively small sample size and may not be fully representative of the stakeholders involved in reconstruction. However, the key findings of this study are ones that need to be recognized by academics, governments, and implementation agencies, and considered in the implementation of post-disaster reconstruction program in developing countries.

Keywords: Gorkha earthquake, reconstruction, challenges, policy

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Authors: Alex J. Summers, Jasmine P. Devadhasan, Douglas Montgomery, Brittany Fischer, Jian Gu, Frederic Zenhausern

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Immunoassays have been utilized for several applications, including the detection of pathogens. Our laboratory is in the development of a tier 1 biothreat panel utilizing Vertical Flow Assay (VFA) technology for simultaneous detection of pathogens and toxins. One method of manufacturing VFA membranes is with non-contact piezoelectric dispensing, which provides advantages, such as low-volume and rapid dispensing without compromising the structural integrity of antibody or substrate. Challenges of this processinclude premature discontinuation of dispensing and misaligned spotting. Preliminary data revealed the Yp 11C7 mAb (11C7)reagent to exhibit a large angle of failure during printing which may have contributed to variable printing outputs. A Design of Experiment (DOE) was executed using this reagent to investigate the effects of hydrostatic pressure and reagent concentration on microarray printing outputs. A Nano-plotter 2.1 (GeSIM, Germany) was used for printing antibody reagents ontonitrocellulose membrane sheets in a clean room environment. A spotting plan was executed using Spot-Front-End software to dispense volumes of 11C7 reagent (20-50 droplets; 1.5-5 mg/mL) in a 6-test spot array at 50 target membrane locations. Hydrostatic pressure was controlled by raising the Pressure Compensation Vessel (PCV) above or lowering it below our current working level. It was hypothesized that raising or lowering the PCV 6 inches would be sufficient to cause either liquid accumulation at the tip or discontinue droplet formation. After aspirating 11C7 reagent, we tested this hypothesis under stroboscope.75% of the effective raised PCV height and of our hypothesized lowered PCV height were used. Humidity (55%) was maintained using an Airwin BO-CT1 humidifier. The number and quality of membranes was assessed after staining printed membranes with dye. The droplet angle of failure was recorded before and after printing to determine a “stroboscope score” for each run. The DOE set was analyzed using JMP software. Hydrostatic pressure and reagent concentration had a significant effect on the number of membranes output. As hydrostatic pressure was increased by raising the PCV 3.75 inches or decreased by lowering the PCV -4.5 inches, membrane output decreased. However, with the hydrostatic pressure closest to equilibrium, our current working level, membrane output, reached the 50-membrane target. As the reagent concentration increased from 1.5 to 5 mg/mL, the membrane output also increased. Reagent concentration likely effected the number of membrane output due to the associated dispensing volume needed to saturate the membranes. However, only hydrostatic pressure had a significant effect on stroboscope score, which could be due to discontinuation of dispensing, and thus the stroboscope check could not find a droplet to record. Our JMP predictive model had a high degree of agreement with our observed results. The JMP model predicted that dispensing the highest concentration of 11C7 at our current PCV working level would yield the highest number of quality membranes, which correlated with our results. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Chemical Biological Technologies Directorate (Contract # HDTRA1-16-C-0026) and the Advanced Technology International (Contract # MCDC-18-04-09-002) from the Department of Defense Chemical and Biological Defense program through the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).

Keywords: immunoassay, microarray, design of experiment, piezoelectric dispensing

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Authors: Evgenia Iakovleva, Juha Koivisto, Pasi Karppinen, J. Inkinen, Mikko Alava

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Preventing the spread of infectious diseases throughout the worldwide is one of the most important tasks of modern health care. Infectious diseases not only account for one fifth of the deaths in the world, but also cause many pathological complications for the human health. Touch surfaces pose an important vector for the spread of infections by varying microorganisms, including antimicrobial resistant organisms. Further, antimicrobial resistance is reply of bacteria to the overused or inappropriate used of antibiotics everywhere. The biggest challenges in bacterial detection by existing methods are non-direct determination, long time of analysis, the sample preparation, use of chemicals and expensive equipment, and availability of qualified specialists. Therefore, a high-performance, rapid, real-time detection is demanded in rapid practical bacterial detection and to control the epidemiological hazard. Among the known methods for determining bacteria on the surfaces, Hyperspectral methods can be used as direct and rapid methods for microorganism detection on different kind of surfaces based on fluorescence without sampling, sample preparation and chemicals. The aim of this study was to assess the relevance of such systems to remote sensing of surfaces for microorganisms detection to prevent a global spread of infectious diseases. Bacillus subtilis and Escherichia coli with different concentrations (from 0 to 10x8 cell/100µL) were detected with hyperspectral camera using different filters as visible visualization of bacteria and background spots on the steel plate. A method of internal standards was applied for monitoring the correctness of the analysis results. Distances from sample to hyperspectral camera and light source are 25 cm and 40 cm, respectively. Each sample is optically imaged from the surface by hyperspectral imaging system, utilizing a JAI CM-140GE-UV camera. Light source is BeamZ FLATPAR DMX Tri-light, 3W tri-colour LEDs (red, blue and green). Light colors are changed through DMX USB Pro interface. The developed system was calibrated following a standard procedure of setting exposure and focused for light with λ=525 nm. The filter is ThorLabs KuriousTM hyperspectral filter controller with wavelengths from 420 to 720 nm. All data collection, pro-processing and multivariate analysis was performed using LabVIEW and Python software. The studied human eye visible and invisible bacterial stains clustered apart from a reference steel material by clustering analysis using different light sources and filter wavelengths. The calculation of random and systematic errors of the analysis results proved the applicability of the method in real conditions. Validation experiments have been carried out with photometry and ATP swab-test. The lower detection limit of developed method is several orders of magnitude lower than for both validation methods. All parameters of the experiments were the same, except for the light. Hyperspectral imaging method allows to separate not only bacteria and surfaces, but also different types of bacteria, such as Gram-negative Escherichia coli and Gram-positive Bacillus subtilis. Developed method allows skipping the sample preparation and the use of chemicals, unlike all other microbiological methods. The time of analysis with novel hyperspectral system is a few seconds, which is innovative in the field of microbiological tests.

Keywords: Escherichia coli, Bacillus subtilis, hyperspectral imaging, microorganisms detection

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Authors: Rodríguez Sánchez Carla, Sancho-Esper Franco, Guillen-Davo Marina

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Tourism is one of the most important sectors worldwide since it is an important economic engine for today's society. It is also one of the sectors that most negatively affect the environment in terms of CO₂ emissions due to this expansion. In light of this, airlines are developing Voluntary Carbon Offset (VCO). There is important evidence focused on analyzing the features of these VCO programs and their efficacy in reducing CO₂ emissions, and findings are mixed without a clear consensus. Different research approaches have centered on analyzing factors and consequences of VCO programs, such as economic modelling based on panel data, survey research based on traveler responses or experimental research analyzing customer decisions in a simulated context. This study belongs to the latter group because it tries to understand how different characteristics of an online ticket purchase website affect the willingness of a traveler to choose a sustainable one. The proposed behavioral model is based on several theories, such as the nudge theory, the dual processing ELM and the cognitive dissonance theory. This randomized experiment aims at overcoming previous studies based on self-reported measures that mainly study sustainable behavioral intention rather than actual decision-making. It also complements traditional self-reported independent variables by gathering objective information from an eye-tracking device. This experiment analyzes the influence of two characteristics of the online purchase website: i) the type of information regarding flight CO₂ emissions (quantitative vs. qualitative) and the comparison framework related to the sustainable purchase decision (negative: alternative with more emissions than the average flight of the route vs. positive: alternative with less emissions than the average flight of the route), therefore it is a 2x2 experiment with four alternative scenarios. A pretest was run before the actual experiment to refine the experiment features and to check the manipulations. Afterward, a different sample of students answered the pre-test questionnaire aimed at recruiting the cases and measuring several pre-stimulus measures. One week later, students came to the neurolab at the University setting to be part of the experiment, made their decision regarding online purchases and answered the post-test survey. A final sample of 21 students was gathered. The committee of ethics of the institution approved the experiment. The results show that qualitative information generates more sustainable decisions (less contaminant alternative) than quantitative information. Moreover, evidence shows that subjects are more willing to choose the sustainable decision to be more ecological (comparison of the average with the less contaminant alternative) rather than to be less contaminant (comparison of the average with the more contaminant alternative). There are also interesting differences in the information processing variables from the eye tracker. Both the total time to make the choice and the specific times by area of interest (AOI) differ depending on the assigned scenario. These results allow for a better understanding of the factors that condition the decision of a traveler to be part of a VCO program and provide useful information for airline managers to promote these programs to reduce environmental impact.

Keywords: voluntary carbon offset, airline, online purchase, carbon emission, sustainability, randomized experiment

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Authors: Sairah Bashir, Liu Yang, John Liggat, James Thomason

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Glass fibre is currently used as reinforcement in over 90% of all fibre-reinforced composites produced. The high rigidity and chemical resistance of these composites are required for optimum performance but unfortunately results in poor recyclability; when such materials are no longer fit for purpose, they are frequently deposited in landfill sites. Recycling technologies, for example, thermal treatment, can be employed to address this issue; temperatures typically between 450 and 600 °C are required to allow degradation of the rigid polymeric matrix and subsequent extraction of fibrous reinforcement. However, due to the severe thermal conditions utilised in the recycling procedure, glass fibres become too weak for reprocessing in second-life composite materials. In addition, more stringent legislation is being put in place regarding disposal of composite waste, and so it is becoming increasingly important to develop long-term recycling solutions for such materials. In particular, the development of a cost-effective method to regenerate strength of thermally recycled glass fibres will have a positive environmental effect as a reduced volume of composite material will be destined for landfill. This research study has demonstrated the positive impact of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) and potassium hydroxide (KOH) solution, prepared at relatively mild temperatures and at concentrations of 1.5 M and above, on the strength of heat-treated glass fibres. As a result, alkaline treatments can potentially be implemented to glass fibres that are recycled from composite waste to allow their reuse in second-life materials. The optimisation of the strength recovery process is being conducted by varying certain reaction parameters such as molarity of alkaline solution and treatment time. It is believed that deep V-shaped surface flaws exist commonly on severely damaged fibre surfaces and are effectively removed to form smooth, U-shaped structures following alkaline treatment. Although these surface flaws are believed to be present on glass fibres they have not in fact been observed, however, they have recently been discovered in this research investigation through analytical techniques such as AFM (atomic force microscopy) and SEM (scanning electron microscopy). Reaction conditions such as molarity of alkaline solution affect the degree of etching of the glass fibre surface, and therefore the extent to which fibre strength is recovered. A novel method in determining the etching rate of glass fibres after alkaline treatment has been developed, and the data acquired can be correlated with strength. By varying reaction conditions such as alkaline solution temperature and molarity, the activation energy of the glass etching process and the reaction order can be calculated respectively. The promising results obtained from NaOH and KOH treatments have opened an exciting route to strength regeneration of thermally recycled glass fibres, and the optimisation of the alkaline treatment process is being continued in order to produce recycled fibres with properties that match original glass fibre products. The reuse of such glass filaments indicates that closed-loop recycling of glass fibre reinforced composite (GFRC) waste can be achieved. In fact, the development of a closed-loop recycling process for GFRC waste is already underway in this research study.

Keywords: glass fibers, glass strengthening, glass structure and properties, surface reactions and corrosion

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Authors: Juan A. Arzate, Funda C. Ertem, M. Nicolas Cruz-Bournazou, Peter Neubauer, Stefan Junne

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— One of the biggest challenges the world faces today is global warming that is caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) coming from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy generation. In order to mitigate climate change, the European Union has committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80–95% below the level of the 1990s by the year 2050. Renewable technologies are vital to diminish energy-related GHG emissions. Since water and biomass are limited resources, the largest contributions to renewable energy (RE) systems will have to come from wind and solar power. Nevertheless, high proportions of fluctuating RE will present a number of challenges, especially regarding the need to balance the variable energy demand with the weather dependent fluctuation of energy supply. Therefore, biogas plants in this content would play an important role, since they are easily adaptable. Feedstock availability varies locally or seasonally; however there is a lack of knowledge in how biogas plants should be operated in a stable manner by local feedstock. This problem may be prevented through suitable control strategies. Such strategies require the development of convenient mathematical models, which fairly describe the main processes. Modelling allows us to predict the system behavior of biogas plants when different feedstocks are used with different loading rates. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a technique for analyzing several sides from evolution of a product till its disposal in an environmental point of view. It is highly recommend to use as a decision making tool. In order to achieve suitable strategies, the combination of a flexible energy generation provided by biogas plants, a secure production process and the maximization of the environmental benefits can be obtained by the combination of process modelling and LCA approaches. For this reason, this study focuses on the biogas plant which flexibly generates required energy from the co-digestion of maize, grass and cattle manure, while emitting the lowest amount of GHG´s. To achieve this goal AMOCO model was combined with LCA. The program was structured in Matlab to simulate any biogas process based on the AMOCO model and combined with the equations necessary to obtain climate change, acidification and eutrophication potentials of the whole production system based on ReCiPe midpoint v.1.06 methodology. Developed simulation was optimized based on real data from operating biogas plants and existing literature research. The results prove that AMOCO model can successfully imitate the system behavior of biogas plants and the necessary time required for the process to adapt in order to generate demanded energy from available feedstock. Combination with LCA approach provided opportunity to keep the resulting emissions from operation at the lowest possible level. This would allow for a prediction of the process, when the feedstock utilization supports the establishment of closed material circles within a smart bio-production grid – under the constraint of minimal drawbacks for the environment and maximal sustainability.

Keywords: AMOCO model, GHG emissions, life cycle assessment, modelling

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Authors: Mohamed Ahmed Tony, Mohamed Hamoud

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The present study was conducted to determine the effect of commercially coated slow-release sodium butyrate (CM3000®) as a feed additive on zootechnical performance, immune status and Clostridium perfringens severity after experimental infection. Three hundred 1-d-old broiler chicks (Cobb 500) were randomly distributed into 3 treatment groups (4 replicates each) using 25 chicks per replicate on floor pens. Control (C) birds were offered non-supplemented basal diets. Treatments 1 and 2 (T1 and T2) were fed diets containing CM3000® at 300 and 500 g/ton feed, respectively, during the entire experimental period (35 days). Feed and water were offered ad-libitum. Feed consumption and body weight were recorded weekly to calculate body weight gain and feed conversion. Blood samples were collected to evaluate the immune status of the birds against Newcastle disease vaccines using HI test. At the end of the experimental period, 20 birds were chosen randomly from each group (5 birds from each pen) to compare carcass yield. At day 16 of age 20 birds from each group (5 birds/replicate) were bacteriologically examined and proved to be free from Clostridium perfringens. The isolated birds were challenged orally with 1 ml buffer containing 106 CFU/ml Clostridium perfringens local isolate and prepared from necrotic enteritis (NE) diseased farms. Birds were observed on a regular basis daily for any signs of NE. Birds that died in the challenged group were necropsied to determine the cause of death. On day 28 of age, the surviving chickens were killed by cervical dislocation and necropsied immediately. Intestinal tracts were removed and intestinal lesions were scored. Tissue samples of the duodenum, jejunum, ileum and cecum for histopathological examination were collected. All collected data were statistically analyzed using IBM SPSS® version 19 software for personal computers. Means were compared by one-way ANOVA (P<0.05) followed by the Duncan Post Hoc test. The results revealed that body weight gain was significantly (P<0.05) improved in chicks fed on both doses of CM3000® compared to the control one. Final body weight gain in T1 and T2 were 2064.94 and 2141.37 g/bird, respectively, while in the control group, the weight gain showed 1952.78 g/bird. In addition, supplementation of diets with CM3000® increased significantly feed intake (P<0.05). Total feed intake in T1 and T2 were 3186.32 and 3273.29 g/bird, respectively; however, feed intake in the control group recorded 3081.95 g/bird. The best feed conversion was recorded in T2 group (1.53). Feed conversion in the control and T1 groups were 1.58 and 1.54, respectively. Dressing percentage, liver weights and the other carcasses yields were not different between treatments. The butyrate significantly enhanced immune responses measured against Newcastle disease vaccines. Sodium butyrate significantly reduced NE lesions and healthy improved the intestinal tissues in the samples collected from T1 and T2-challenged chickens versus those collected from the control group. In conclusion, exogenous administration of slow-release butyrate (CM3000®) is capable of improving performance, enhancing immunity and NE disease resistance in broiler chickens.

Keywords: sodium butyrate, broiler chicken, zootechnical performance, immunity, necrotic enteritis

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Authors: Domenico Palladino, Nicolandrea Calabrese, Francesca Caffari, Giulia Centi, Francesca Margiotta, Giovanni Murano, Laura Ronchetti, Paolo Signoretti, Lisa Volpe, Silvia Di Turi

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The aim to achieve a fully decarbonized building stock by 2050 stands as one of the most challenging issues within the spectrum of energy and climate objectives. Numerous strategies are imperative, particularly emphasizing the reduction and optimization of energy demand. Ensuring the high energy performance of buildings emerges as a top priority, with measures aimed at cutting energy consumptions. Concurrently, it is imperative to decrease greenhouse gas emissions by using renewable energy sources for the on-site energy production, thereby striving for an energy balance leading towards zero-emission buildings. Italy's predominant building stock comprises ancient buildings, many of which hold historical significance and are subject to stringent preservation and conservation regulations. Attaining high levels of energy efficiency and reducing CO2 emissions in such buildings poses a considerable challenge, given their unique characteristics and the imperative to adhere to principles of conservation and restoration. Additionally, conducting a meticulous analysis of these buildings' current state is crucial for accurately quantifying their energy performance and predicting the potential impacts of proposed renovation strategies on energy consumption reduction. Within this framework, the paper presents a pilot case in Rome, outlining a methodological approach for the renovation of historic buildings towards achieving Zero Emission Building (ZEB) objective. The building has a mixed function with offices, a conference hall, and an exposition area. The building envelope is made of historical and precious materials used as cladding which must be preserved. A thorough understanding of the building's current condition serves as a prerequisite for analyzing its energy performance. This involves conducting comprehensive archival research, undertaking on-site diagnostic examinations to characterize the building envelope and its systems, and evaluating actual energy usage data derived from energy bills. Energy simulations and audit are the first step in the analysis with the assessment of the energy performance of the actual current state. Subsequently, different renovation scenarios are proposed, encompassing advanced building techniques, to pinpoint the key actions necessary for improving mechanical systems, automation and control systems, and the integration of renewable energy production. These scenarios entail different levels of renovation, ranging from meeting minimum energy performance goals to achieving the highest possible energy efficiency level. The proposed interventions are meticulously analyzed and compared to ascertain the feasibility of attaining the Zero Emission Building objective. In conclusion, the paper provides valuable insights that can be extrapolated to inform a broader approach towards energy-efficient refurbishment of historical buildings that may have limited potential for renovation in their building envelopes. By adopting a methodical and nuanced approach, it is possible to reconcile the imperative of preserving cultural heritage with the pressing need to transition towards a sustainable, low-carbon future.

Keywords: energy conservation and transition, energy efficiency in historical buildings, buildings energy performance, energy retrofitting, zero emission buildings, energy simulation

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Authors: Yagmur Soylu, Emir Ozeren, Erol Esen, Digdem M. Siyez, Ozlem Belkis, Ezgi Burc, Gülce Demirgurz

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The aim of the study is to determine the predictive power of personal growth initiative, socio-demographic variables (such as sex, grade, and working condition) on career adaptability and optimism of bachelor students in Dokuz Eylul University in Turkey. According to career construction theory, career adaptability is viewed as a psychosocial construct, which refers to an individual’s resources for dealing with current and expected tasks, transitions and traumas in their occupational roles. Career optimism is defined as positive results for future career development of individuals in the expectation that it will achieve or to put the emphasis on the positive aspects of the event and feel comfortable about the career planning process. Personal Growth Initiative (PGI) is defined as being proactive about one’s personal development. Additionally, personal growth is defined as the active and intentional engagement in the process of personal. A study conducted on college students revealed that individuals with high self-development orientation make more effort to discover the requirements of the profession and workspaces than individuals with low levels of personal development orientation. University life is a period that social relations and the importance of academic activities are increased, the students make efforts to progress through their career paths and it is also an environment that offers opportunities to students for their self-realization. For these reasons, personal growth initiative is potentially an important variable which has a key role for an individual during the transition phase from university to the working life. Based on the review of the literature, it is expected that individual’s personal growth initiative, sex, grade, and working condition would significantly predict one’s career adaptability. In the relevant literature, it can be seen that there are relatively few studies available on the career adaptability and optimism of university students. Most of the existing studies have been carried out with limited respondents. In this study, the authors aim to conduct a comprehensive research with a large representative sample of bachelor students in Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey. By now, personal growth initiative and career development constructs have been predominantly discussed in western contexts where individualistic tendencies are likely to be seen. Thus, the examination of the same relationship within the context of Turkey where collectivistic cultural characteristics can be more observed is expected to offer valuable insights and provide an important contribution to the literature. The participants in this study were comprised of 1500 undergraduate students being included from thirteen faculties in Dokuz Eylul University. Stratified and random sampling methods were adopted for the selection of the participants. The Personal Growth Initiative Scale-II and Career Futures Inventory were used as the major measurement tools. In data analysis stage, several statistical analysis concerning the regression analysis, one-way ANOVA and t-test will be conducted to reveal the relationships of the constructs under investigation. At the end of this project, we will be able to determine the level of career adaptability and optimism of university students at varying degrees so that a fertile ground is likely to be created to carry out several intervention techniques to make a contribution to an emergence of a healthier and more productive youth generation in psycho-social sense.

Keywords: career optimism, career adaptability, personal growth initiative, university students

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Authors: M. Skibinska, A. Rajewska-Rager, M. Dmitrzak-Weglarz, N. Lepczynska, P. Sibilski, P. Kapelski, J. Pawlak, J. Twarowska-Hauser

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Introduction: Neurotrophic factors have been implicated in neuropsychiatric disorders. Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) influences neuron differentiation in development as well as synaptic plasticity and neuron survival in adulthood. BDNF is widely studied in mood disorders and has been proposed as a biomarker for depression. BDNF is synthesized as precursor protein – proBDNF. Both forms are biologically active and exert opposite effects on neurons. Aim: The aim of the study was to examine the serum levels of BDNF and proBDNF in unipolar and bipolar young patients below 24 years old during hypo/manic, depressive episodes and in remission compared to healthy control group. Methods: In a prospective 2 years follow-up study, we investigated alterations in levels of BDNF and proBDNF in 79 patients (23 males, mean age 19.08, SD 3.3 and 56 females, mean age 18.39, SD 3.28) diagnosed with mood disorders: unipolar and bipolar disorder compared with 35 healthy control subjects (7 males, mean age 20.43, SD 4.23 and 28 females, mean age 21.25, SD 2.11). Clinical characteristics including mood, comorbidity, family history, and treatment, were evaluated during control visits and clinical symptoms were rated using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale and Young Mania Rating Scale. Serum BDNF and proBDNF concentrations were determined by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays (ELISA) method. Serum BDNF and proBDNF levels were analysed with covariates: sex, age, age > 18 and < 18 years old, family history of affective disorders, drug-free vs. medicated status. Normality of the data was tested using Shapiro-Wilk test. Levene’s test was used to calculate homogeneity of variance. Non-parametric Tests: Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, Friedman’s ANOVA, Wilcoxon signed rank test, Spearman correlation coefficient were applied in analyses The statistical significance level was set at p < 0.05. Results: BDNF and proBDNF serum levels did not differ between patients at baseline and controls as well as comparing patients in acute episode of depression/hypo/mania at baseline and euthymia (at month 3 or 6). Comparing BDNF and proBDNF levels between patients in euthymia and control group no differences have been found. Increased BDNF level in women compared to men at baseline (p=0.01) have been observed. BDNF level at baseline was negatively correlated with depression and mania occurence at 24 month (p=0.04). BDNF level at 12 month was negatively correlated with depression and mania occurence at 12 month (p=0.01). Correlation of BDNF level with sex have been detected (p=0.01). proBDNF levels at month 3, 6 and 12 negatively correlated with disease status (p=0.02, p=0.008, p=0.009, respectively). No other correlations of BDNF and proBDNF levels with clinical and demographical variables have been detected. Discussion: Our results did not show any differences in BDNF and proBDNF levels between depression, mania, euthymia, and controls. Imbalance in BDNF/proBDNF signalling may be involved in pathogenesis of mood disorders. Further studies on larger groups are recommended. Grant was founded by National Science Center in Poland no 2011/03/D/NZ5/06146.

Keywords: bipolar disorder, Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF), proBDNF, unipolar depression

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Authors: Mohammed S. Razali, Kamel Khimeche, Dahah Hichem, Ammar Boudjellal, Djamel E. Kaderi, Nourddine Ramdani

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The use of additive manufacturing technologies has revolutionized various aspects of our daily lives. In particular, 3D printing has greatly advanced biomedical applications. While fused filament fabrication (FFF) technologies have made it easy to produce or prototype various medical devices, it is crucial to minimize the risk of contamination. New materials with antibacterial properties, such as those containing compounded silver nanoparticles, have emerged on the market. In a previous study, we prepared a newly sintered seashell filler (SSh) from bio-based seashells found along the Mediterranean coast using a suitable heat treatment process. We then prepared a series of polylactic acid (PLA) and polybutylene succinate (PBS) biocomposites filled with these SSh particles using a melt mixing technique with a twin-screw extruder to use them as feedstock filaments for 3D printing. The study consisted of two parts: evaluating the antibacterial activity of newly prepared biocomposites made of PLA and PBS reinforced with a sintered seashell in the first part and experimental and modeling analysis of the non-isothermal crystallization kinetics of these biocomposites in the second part. In the first part, the bactericidal activity of the biocomposites against three different bacteria, including Gram-negative bacteria such as (E. coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa), as well as Gram-positive bacteria such as (Staphylococcus aureus), was examined. The PLA-based biocomposite containing 20 wt.% of SSh particles exhibited an inhibition zone with radial diameters of 8mm and 6mm against E. coli and Pseudo. Au, respectively, while no bacterial activity was observed against Staphylococcus aureus. In the second part, the focus was on investigating the effect of the sintered seashell filler particles on the non-isothermal crystallization kinetics of PLA and PBS 3D-printing composite materials. The objective was to understand the impact of the filler particles on the crystallization mechanism of both PLA and PBS during the cooling process of a melt-extruded filament in (FFF) to manage the dimensional accuracy and mechanical properties of the final printed part. We conducted a non-isothermal melt crystallization kinetic study of a series of PLA-SS and PBS-SS composites using differential scanning calorimetry at various cooling rates. We analyzed the obtained kinetic data using different crystallization kinetic models such as modified Avrami, Ozawa, and Mo's methods. Dynamic mode describes the relative crystallinity as a function of temperature; it found that time half crystallinity (t1/2) of neat PLA decreased from 17 min to 7.3 min for PLA+5 SSh and the (t1/2) of virgin PBS was reduced from 3.5 min to 2.8 min for the composite containing 5wt.% of SSh. We found that the coated SS particles with stearic acid acted as nucleating agents and had a nucleation activity, as observed through polarized optical microscopy. Moreover, we evaluated the effective energy barrier of the non-isothermal crystallization process using the Iso conversional methods of Flynn-Wall-Ozawa (F-W-O) and Kissinger-Akahira-Sunose (K-A-S). The study provides significant insights into the crystallization behavior of PLA and PBS biocomposites.

Keywords: avrami model, bio-based reinforcement, dsc, gram-negative bacteria, gram-positive bacteria, isoconversional methods, non-isothermal crystallization kinetics, poly(butylene succinate), poly(lactic acid), antbactirial activity

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Authors: Biva Samadder, Samita Manna

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India is a melting pot of races, tribes, castes and communities. The population of India can be roughly branched into the huge majority of “Civilized” Indians of the Plains and the minority of Tribal population of the hill area and the forest who constituting almost 16 percent of total population of India. The Kirat community composed of four ethnic tribes: Limbu, Lepcha, Dhimal, and Rai. These Kirat people were found to be rich in indigenous knowledge, skill and practices especially for the use on medicinal plants and livelihood purposes. The “Mundhum" is the oral scripture or the “Bible of the Limbus” which serves as the canon of the codes of the Limbu socialization, their moral values and the very orientation of their lifestyle. From birth till death the Limbus are disciplined in the life with full of religious rituals, traditions and culture governed by community norms with a rich legacy of indigenous knowledge and traditional practices. The present study has been conducted using both secondary as well as primary data by applying social methodology consisting of the social survey, questionnaire, interviews and observations in the Kalimpong Block-I of Darjeeling District of west Bengal of India, which is a heterogeneous zone in terms of its ethnic composition and where the Limbus are pre-dominantly concentrated. Due to their close contact with other caste and communities Limbus are now adjusted with the changing situation by borrowing some cultural traits from the other communities and changes that have taken place in their cultural practices, religious beliefs, economic aspects, languages and in social roles and relationships which is bringing the change in their material culture. Limbu language is placed in the Tibeto- Burman Language category. But due to the political and cultural domination of educationally sound and numerically dominant Bengali race, the different communities in this area forced to come under the one umbrella of the Nepali or Gorkhali nation (nation-people). Their respective identities had to be submerged in order to constitute as a strong force to resist Nepali domination and ensure their common survival. As Nepali is a lingua-franca of the area knowing and speaking Nepali language helps them in procuring economic and occupational facilities. Ironically, present day younger generation does not feel comfortable speaking in their own Limbu tongue. The traditional knowledge about medicinal plants, healing, and health culture is found to be wear away due to the lack of interest of young generation. Not only poverty, along with exclusion due to policies they are in the phase of extinction, but their capabilities are ignored and not documented and preserved especially in the case of Limbus who having a great cultural heritage of an oral tradition. Attempts have been made to discuss the persistence and changes in socioeconomic pattern of life in relation to the social structure, material culture, cultural practices, social relationships, indigenous technology, ethos and their values and belief system.

Keywords: changing social relationship, cultural transition, identity, indigenous knowledge, language

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Authors: Hannah R. Devens, Phillip L. Davidson, Dione Deaker, Kathryn E. Smith, Gregory A. Wray, Maria Byrne

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Marine invertebrate species with calcifying larvae are especially vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) caused by rising atmospheric CO₂ levels. Acidic conditions can delay development, suppress metabolism, and decrease the availability of carbonate ions in the ocean environment for skeletogenesis. These stresses often result in increased larval mortality, which may lead to significant ecological consequences including alterations to the larval settlement, population distribution, and genetic connectivity. Importantly, many of these physiological and developmental effects are caused by genetic and molecular level changes. Although many studies have examined the effect of near-future oceanic pH levels on gene expression in marine invertebrates, little is known about the impact of OA on gene expression in a developmental context. Here, we performed mRNA-sequencing to investigate the impact of environmental acidity on gene expression across three developmental stages in the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma. We collected RNA from gastrula, early larva, and 1-day post-metamorphic juvenile sea urchins cultured at present-day and predicted future oceanic pH levels (pH 8.1 and 7.7, respectively). We assembled an annotated reference transcriptome encompassing development from egg to ten days post-metamorphosis by combining these data with datasets from two previous developmental transcriptomic studies of H. erythrogramma. Differential gene expression and time course analyses between pH conditions revealed significant alterations to developmental transcription that are potentially associated with pH stress. Consistent with previous investigations, genes involved in biomineralization and ion transport were significantly upregulated under acidic conditions. Differences in gene expression between the two pH conditions became more pronounced post-metamorphosis, suggesting a development-dependent effect of OA on gene expression. Furthermore, many differences in gene expression later in development appeared to be a result of broad downregulation at pH 7.7: of 539 genes differentially expressed at the juvenile stage, 519 of these were lower in the acidic condition. Time course comparisons between pH 8.1 and 7.7 samples also demonstrated over 500 genes were more lowly expressed in pH 7.7 samples throughout development. Of the genes exhibiting stage-dependent expression level changes, over 15% of these diverged from the expected temporal pattern of expression in the acidic condition. Through these analyses, we identify novel candidate genes involved in development, metabolism, and transcriptional regulation that are possibly affected by pH stress. Our results demonstrate that pH stress significantly alters gene expression dynamics throughout development. A large number of genes differentially expressed between pH conditions in juveniles relative to earlier stages may be attributed to the effects of acidity on transcriptional regulation, as a greater proportion of mRNA at this later stage has been nascent transcribed rather than maternally loaded. Also, the overall downregulation of many genes in the acidic condition suggests that OA-induced developmental delay manifests as suppressed mRNA expression, possibly from lower transcription rates or increased mRNA degradation in the acidic environment. Further studies will be necessary to determine in greater detail the extent of OA effects on early developing marine invertebrates.

Keywords: development, gene expression, ocean acidification, RNA-sequencing, sea urchins

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Authors: Shanhua Hu

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Social media as a critical propagandizing form of film, video games, and digital products has received substantial research attention, but there exists several critical barriers such as: (1) few studies exploring the internal and external connections of a product as part of the multimodal context that gives rise to readability and commercial return; (2) the lack of study of multimodal analysis in product’s official account of game publishers and its impact on users’ behaviors including purchase intention, social media engagement, and playing time; (3) no standardized ecologically-valid, game type-varying data can be used to study the complexity of official account’s postings within a time period. This proposed research helps to tackle these limitations in order to develop a model of readability study that is more ecologically valid, robust, and thorough. To accomplish this objective, this paper provides a more diverse dataset comprising different visual elements and messages collected from the official Twitter accounts of the Top 20 best-selling games of 2021. Video game companies target potential users through social media, a popular approach is to set up an official account to maintain exposure. Typically, major game publishers would create an official account on Twitter months before the game's release date to update on the game's development, announce collaborations, and reveal spoilers. Analyses of tweets from those official Twitter accounts would assist publishers and marketers in identifying how to efficiently and precisely deploy advertising to increase game sales. The purpose of this research is to determine how official game accounts use Twitter to attract new customers, specifically which types of messages are most effective at increasing sales. The dataset includes the number of days until the actual release date on Twitter posts, the readability of the post (Flesch Reading Ease Score, FRES), the number of emojis used, the number of hashtags, the number of followers of the mentioned users, the categorization of the posts (i.e., spoilers, collaborations, promotions), and the number of video views. The timeline of Twitter postings from official accounts will be compared to the history of pre-orders and sales figures to determine the potential impact of social media posts. This study aims to determine how the above-mentioned characteristics of official accounts' Twitter postings influence the sales of the game and to examine the possible causes of this influence. The outcome will provide researchers with a list of potential aspects that could influence people's judgments in limited-word posts. With the increased average online time, users would adapt more quickly than before in online information exchange and readings, such as the word to use sentence length, and the use of emojis or hashtags. The study on the promotion of official game accounts will not only enable publishers to create more effective promotion techniques in the future but also provide ideas for future research on the influence of social media posts with a limited number of words on consumers' purchasing decisions. Future research can focus on more specific linguistic aspects, such as precise word choice in advertising.

Keywords: engagement, official account, promotion, twitter, video game

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Authors: Kiran Datta, Daniella Holland-Hart, Anthony Byrne

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Introduction: Oesophago-gastric (OG) cancers are the fifth commonest in the UK, accounting for over 12,000 deaths each year. Most patients will present at later stages of the disease, with only 21% of patients with stage 4 disease surviving longer than a year. As a result, many patients are unsuitable for curative surgery and instead receive palliative treatment to improve prognosis and symptom burden. However, palliative chemotherapy can result in significant toxicity: almost half of the patients are unable to complete their chemotherapy regimen, with this proportion rising significantly in older and frailer patients. In addition, clinical trials often exclude older and frailer patients due to strict inclusion criteria, meaning there is limited evidence to guide which patients are most likely to benefit from palliative chemotherapy. Inappropriate chemotherapy administration is at odds with the goals of palliative treatment and care, which are to improve quality of life, and this also represents a significant resource expenditure. This literature review aimed to examine and appraise evidence regarding treatment resilience in order to guide clinicians in identifying the most suitable candidates for palliative chemotherapy. Factors influencing treatment resilience were assessed, as measured by completion rates, dose reductions, and toxicities. Methods: This literature review was conducted using rapid review methodology, utilising modified systematic methods. A literature search was performed across the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases, with results limited to papers within the last 15 years and available in English. Key inclusion criteria included: 1) participants with either oesophageal, gastro-oesophageal junction, or gastric cancers; 2) patients treated with palliative chemotherapy; 3) available data evaluating the association between baseline participant characteristics and treatment resilience. Results: Of the 2326 papers returned, 11 reports of 10 studies were included in this review after excluding duplicates and irrelevant papers. Treatment resilience factors that were assessed included: age, performance status, frailty, inflammatory markers, and sarcopenia. Age was generally a poor predictor for how well patients would tolerate chemotherapy, while poor performance status was a better indicator of the need for dose reduction and treatment non-completion. Frailty was assessed across one cohort using multiple screening tools and was an effective marker of the risk of toxicity and the requirement for dose reduction. Inflammatory markers included lymphopenia and the Glasgow Prognostic Score, which assessed inflammation and hypoalbuminaemia. Although quick to obtain and interpret, these findings appeared less reliable due to the inclusion of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy. Sarcopenia and body composition were often associated with chemotherapy toxicity but not the rate of regimen completion. Conclusion: This review demonstrates that there are numerous measures that can estimate the ability of patients with oesophago-gastric cancer to tolerate palliative chemotherapy, and these should be incorporated into clinical assessments to promote personalised decision-making around treatment. Age should not be a barrier to receiving chemotherapy and older and frailer patients should be included in future clinical trials to better represent typical patients with oesophago-gastric cancers. Decisions regarding palliative treatment should be guided by these factors identified as well as patient preference.

Keywords: frailty, oesophago-gastric cancer, palliative chemotherapy, treatment resilience

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Authors: Anastasiya Vouchak, Aliaksandr Volchak

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Belarus is not short of water. However, there is a problem of water quality. Its pollution has both natural and man-made origin. This research is based on data from State Water Cadastre of the Republic of Belarus registered from 1994 to 2014. We analyzed changes in such hydro-chemical criteria as concentration of ammonium ions, suspended matter, dissolved oxygen, oil-products, nitrites, phosphates in water, dichromate value, water impurity index, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD). Pollution of water with ammonium ions was observed in Belarus rivers of the Western Dvina, Polota, Schara, Usha, Muhavets, Berzina, Plissa, Svisloch, Pripiat, Yaselda in 2006-2014. The threshold limit value (TLV) was 1.5-3 times as much. Concentration of ammonia in the Berezina exceeded 3 – 5 times the TLVs in 2006-2010. Maximum excess of TLV was registered in the Svisloch (10 km downstream of Minsk) in 2006-2007. It was over 4 mg/dm³ whereas the norm is 0.39 mg/dm³. In 1997 there were ammonia pollution spots in the Dnieper, the Berezina, and the Svisloch Rivers. Since 2006 we have observed pollution spots in the Neman, Ross, Vilia, Sozh, Gorin Rivers, the Osipovichi and Soligorsk reservoirs. Dichromate value exceeds the TLVs in 40% cases. The most polluted waters are the Muhavets, Berezina, Pripiat, Yaselda, Gorin Rivers, the Vileyka and Soligorsk reservoirs. The Western Dvina, Neman, Viliya, Schara, Svisloch, and Plissa Rivers are less polluted. The Dnieper is the cleanest in this respect. In terms of BOD, water is polluted in the Neman, Muhavets, Svisloch, Yaselda, Gorin Rivers, the Osipovichi, Zaslavl, and Soligorsk reservoirs. The Western Dvina, Polota, Sozh, Iputs Rivers and Lake Naroch are not polluted in this respect. This criterion has been decreasing in 33 out of 42 cases. The least suspended matter is in the Berezina, Sozh, Iputs Rivers and Lake Naroch. The muddiest water is in the Neman, Usha, Svisloch, Pripyat, Yaselda Rivers, the Osipovichi and Soligorsk reservoirs. Water impurity index shows reduction of this criterion at all gauge stations. Multi-year average values predominantly (66.6%) correspond to the third class of water quality, i.e. moderately polluted. They include the Western Dvina, Ross, Usha, Muhavets, Dnieper, Berezina, Plissa, Iputs, Pripyat, Yaselda, Gorin Rivers, the Osipovichi and Soligorsk reservoirs. Water in the Svisloch River downstream of Minsk is of the forth quality class, i.e. most polluted. In the rest cases (33.3%) water is relatively clean. They include the Lidea, Schara, Viliya, Sozh Rivers, Lake Lukoml, Lake Naroch, Vileyka and Zaslavl reservoirs. Multi-year average values range from 7.0 to 9.5 mg О₂/dm³. The Yaselda has the least value - 6.7 mg О₂/dm³. A shortage of dissolved oxygen was found in the Berezina (2010), the Yaselda (2007), the Plissa (2011-2014), the Soligorsk reservoir (1996). Contamination of water with oil-products was observed everywhere in 1994-1999. Some spots were found in the Western Dvina, Vilia, Usha, Dnieper in 2003-2006, in the Svisloch in 2002-2012. We are observing gradual decrease of oil pollutants in surface water. The quality of 67 % surface water is referred to as moderately polluted.

Keywords: belarus, hydro-chemical criteria, water pollution, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Ciaran Friel, Jerry Suls, Patrick Robles, Frank Vicari, Joan Duer-Hefele, Karina W. Davidson

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Physical activity guidelines focus on increasing moderate intensity activity for older adults, but adherence to recommendations remains low. This is despite the fact that scientific evidence supports that any increase in physical activity is positively correlated with health benefits. Behavior change techniques (BCTs) have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing sedentary behavior and promoting physical activity. This pilot study uses a Personalized Trials (N-of-1) design to evaluate the efficacy of using four BCTs to promote an increase in low-intensity physical activity (2,000 steps of walking per day) in adults aged 45-75 years old. The 4 BCTs tested were goal setting, action planning, feedback, and self-monitoring. BCTs were tested in random order and delivered by text message prompts requiring participant response. The study recruited health system employees in the target age range, without mobility restrictions and demonstrating interest in increasing their daily activity by a minimum of 2,000 steps per day for a minimum of five days per week. Participants were sent a Fitbit Charge 4 fitness tracker with an established study account and password. Participants were recommended to wear the Fitbit device 24/7, but were required to wear it for a minimum of ten hours per day. Baseline physical activity was measured by the Fitbit for two weeks. Participants then engaged with a clinical research coordinator to review comprehension of the text message content and required actions for each of the BCTs to be tested. Participants then selected a consistent daily time in which they would receive their text message prompt. In the 8 week intervention phase of the study, participants received each of the four BCTs, in random order, for a two week period. Text message prompts were delivered daily at a time selected by the participant. All prompts required an interactive response from participants and may have included recording their detailed plan for walking or daily step goal (action planning, goal setting). Additionally, participants may have been directed to a study dashboard to view their step counts or compare themselves with peers (self-monitoring, feedback). At the end of each two week testing interval, participants were asked to complete the Self-Efficacy for Walking Scale (SEW_Dur), a validated measure that assesses the participant’s confidence in walking incremental distances and a survey measuring their satisfaction with the individual BCT that they tested. At the end of their trial, participants received a personalized summary of their step data in response to each individual BCT. Analysis will examine the novel individual-level heterogeneity of treatment effect made possible by N-of-1 design, and pool results across participants to efficiently estimate the overall efficacy of the selected behavioral change techniques in increasing low-intensity walking by 2,000 steps, 5 days per week. Self-efficacy will be explored as the likely mechanism of action prompting behavior change. This study will inform the providers and demonstrate the feasibility of N-of-1 study design to effectively promote physical activity as a component of healthy aging.

Keywords: aging, exercise, habit, walking

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: Manal M. Kame, Zeinab A. Demerdash, Hanan G. El-Baz, Salwa M. Hassan, Faten M. Salah, Wafaa Mansour, Olfat Hammam

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Cord blood (CB) derived Unrestricted Somatic Stem Cells (USSCs) with their multipotentiality hold great promise in liver regeneration. This work aims at evaluation of the therapeutic potentiality of USSCs in two experimental models of chronic liver injury induced either by S. mansoni infection in balb/c mice or CCL4 injection in hamsters. Isolation, propagation, and characterization of USSCs from CB samples were performed. USSCs were induced to differentiate into osteoblasts, adipocytes and hepatocyte-like cells. Cells of the third passage were transplanted in two models of liver fibrosis: (1) Twenty hamsters were induced to liver fibrosis by repeated i. p. injection of 100 μl CCl4 /hamster for 8 weeks. This model was designed as; 10 hamsters with liver fibrosis and treated with i.h. injection of 3x106 USSCs (USSCs transplanted group), 10 hamsters with liver fibrosis (pathological control group), and 10 hamsters with healthy livers (normal control group). (2) Murine chronics S.mansoni model: twenty mice were induced to liver fibrosis with S. mansoni ceracariae (60 cercariae/ mouse) using the tail immersion method and left for 12 weeks. This model was designed as; 10 mice with liver fibrosis were transplanted with i. v. injection of 1×106 USCCs (USSCs transplanted group). Other 2 groups were designed as in hamsters model. Animals were sacrificed 12 weeks after USSCs transplantation, and their liver sections were examined for detection of human hepatocyte-like cells by immunohistochemistry staining. Moreover, liver sections were examined for fibrosis level, and fibrotic indices were calculated. Sera of sacrificed animals were tested for liver functions. CB USSCs, with fibroblast-like morphology, expressed high levels of CD44, CD90, CD73 and CD105 and were negative for CD34, CD45, and HLA-DR. USSCs showed high expression of transcripts for Oct4 and Sox2 and were in vitro differentiated into osteoblasts, adipocytes. In both animal models, in vitro induced hepatocyte-like cells were confirmed by cytoplasmic expression of glycogen, alpha-fetoprotein, and cytokeratin18. Livers of USSCs transplanted group showed engraftment with human hepatocyte-like cells as proved by cytoplasmic expression of human alpha-fetoprotein, cytokeratin18, and OV6. In addition, livers of this group showed less fibrosis than the pathological control group. Liver functions in the form of serum AST & ALT level and serum total bilirubin level were significantly lowered in USSCs transplanted group than pathological control group (p < 0.001). Moreover, the fibrotic index was significantly lower (p< 0.001) in USSCs transplanted group than pathological control group. In addition liver sections, of i. v. injection of 1×106 USCCs of mice, stained with either H&E or sirius red showed diminished granuloma size and a relative decrease in hepatic fibrosis. Our experimental liver fibrosis models transplanted with CB-USSCs showed liver engraftment with human hepatocyte-like cells as well as signs of liver regeneration in the form of improvement in liver function assays and fibrosis level. These data provide hope that human CB- derived USSCs are introduced as multipotent stem cells with great potentiality in regenerative medicine & strengthens the concept of cellular therapy for the treatment of liver fibrosis.

Keywords: cord blood, liver fibrosis, stem cells, transplantation

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Marielle Leijten, Catherine Meulemans, Sven De Maeyer, Luuk Van Waes

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For the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), a large variety of neuropsychological tests are available. In some of these tests, linguistic processing - both oral and written - is an important factor. Language disturbances might serve as a strong indicator for an underlying neurodegenerative disorder like AD. However, the current diagnostic instruments for language assessment mainly focus on product measures, such as text length or number of errors, ignoring the importance of the process that leads to written or spoken language production. In this study, it is our aim to describe and test differences between cognitive and impaired elderly on the basis of a selection of writing process variables (inter- and intrapersonal characteristics). These process variables are mainly related to pause times, because the number, length, and location of pauses have proven to be an important indicator of the cognitive complexity of a process. Method: Participants that were enrolled in our research were chosen on the basis of a number of basic criteria necessary to collect reliable writing process data. Furthermore, we opted to match the thirteen cognitively impaired patients (8 MCI and 5 AD) with thirteen cognitively healthy elderly. At the start of the experiment, participants were each given a number of tests, such as the Mini-Mental State Examination test (MMSE), the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), the forward and backward digit span and the Edinburgh Handedness Inventory (EHI). Also, a questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic information (age, gender, eduction) of the subjects as well as more details on their level of computer literacy. The tests and questionnaire were followed by two typing tasks and two picture description tasks. For the typing tasks participants had to copy (type) characters, words and sentences from a screen, whereas the picture description tasks each consisted of an image they had to describe in a few sentences. Both the typing and the picture description tasks were logged with Inputlog, a keystroke logging tool that allows us to log and time stamp keystroke activity to reconstruct and describe text production processes. The main rationale behind keystroke logging is that writing fluency and flow reveal traces of the underlying cognitive processes. This explains the analytical focus on pause (length, number, distribution, location, etc.) and revision (number, type, operation, embeddedness, location, etc.) characteristics. As in speech, pause times are seen as indexical of cognitive effort. Results. Preliminary analysis already showed some promising results concerning pause times before, within and after words. For all variables, mixed effects models were used that included participants as a random effect and MMSE scores, GDS scores and word categories (such as determiners and nouns) as a fixed effect. For pause times before and after words cognitively impaired patients paused longer than healthy elderly. These variables did not show an interaction effect between the group participants (cognitively impaired or healthy elderly) belonged to and word categories. However, pause times within words did show an interaction effect, which indicates pause times within certain word categories differ significantly between patients and healthy elderly.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, keystroke logging, matching, writing process

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Authors: Fani Sakellariadou, Danae Antivachis

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Purpose of this paper is to evaluate the environmental status of a coastal Mediterranean lake, named Koumoundourou, located in the northeastern coast of Elefsis Bay, in the western region of Attiki in Greece, 15 km far from Athens. It is preserved from ancient times having an important archaeological interest. Koumoundourou lake is also considered as a valuable wetland accommodating an abundant flora and fauna, with a variety of bird species including a few world’s threatened ones. Furthermore, it is a heavily modified lake, affected by various anthropogenic pollutant sources which provide industrial, urban and agricultural contaminants. The adjacent oil refineries and the military depot are the major pollution providers furnishing with crude oil spills and leaks. Moreover, the lake accepts a quantity of groundwater leachates from the major landfill of Athens. The environmental status of the lake results from the intensive land uses combined with the permeable lithology of the surrounding area and the existence of karstic springs which discharge calcareous mountains. Sediment samples were collected along the shoreline of the lake using a Van Veen grab stainless steel sampler. They were studied for the determination of the total metal content and the metal fractionation in geochemical phases as well as the characterization of the dissolved organic matter (DOM). These constituents have a significant role in the ecological consideration of the lake. Metals may be responsible for harmful environmental impacts. The metal partitioning offers comprehensive information for the origin, mode of occurrence, biological and physicochemical availability, mobilization and transport of metals. Moreover, DOM has a multifunctional importance interacting with inorganic and organic contaminants leading to biogeochemical and ecological effects. The samples were digested using microwave heating with a suitable laboratory microwave unit. For the total metal content, the samples were treated with a mixture of strong acids. Then, a sequential extraction procedure was applied for the removal of exchangeable, carbonate hosted, reducible, organic/sulphides and residual fractions. Metal content was determined by an ICP-MS (Perkin Elmer, ICP MASS Spectrophotometer NexION 350D). Furthermore, the DOM was removed via a gentle extraction procedure and then it was characterized by fluorescence spectroscopy using a Perkin-Elmer LS 55 luminescence spectrophotometer equipped with the WinLab 4.00.02 software for data processing (Agilent, Cary Eclipse Fluorescence). Mono dimensional emission, excitation, synchronous-scan excitation and total luminescence spectra were recorded for the classification of chromophoric units present in the aqueous extracts. Total metal concentrations were determined and compared with those of the Elefsis gulf sediments. Element partitioning showed the anthropogenic sources and the contaminant bioavailability. All fluorescence spectra, as well as humification indices, were evaluated in detail to find out the nature and origin of DOM. All the results were compared and interpreted to evaluate the environmental quality of Koumoundourou lake and the need for environmental management and protection.

Keywords: anthropogenic contaminant, dissolved organic matter, lake, metal, pollution

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Authors: Satish Kumar, Nisha Goyal

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In the stock market, individual investors exhibit different kinds of behaviour. Traditional finance is built on the notion of 'homo economics', which states that humans always make perfectly rational choices to maximize their wealth and minimize risk. That is, traditional finance has concern for how investors should behave rather than how actual investors are behaving. Behavioural finance provides the explanation for this phenomenon. Although finance has been studied for thousands of years, behavioural finance is an emerging field that combines the behavioural or psychological aspects with conventional economic and financial theories to provide explanations on how emotions and cognitive factors influence investors’ behaviours. These emotions and cognitive factors are known as behavioural biases. Because of these biases, investors make irrational investment decisions. Besides, the emotional and cognitive factors, the social influence of media as well as friends, relatives and colleagues also affect investment decisions. Psychological factors influence individual investors’ investment decision making, but few studies have used qualitative methods to understand these factors. The aim of this study is to explore the behavioural factors or biases that affect individuals’ investment decision making. For the purpose of this exploratory study, an in-depth interview method was used because it provides much more exhaustive information and a relaxed atmosphere in which people feel more comfortable to provide information. Twenty investment advisors having a minimum 5 years’ experience in securities firms were interviewed. In this study, thematic content analysis was used to analyse interview transcripts. Thematic content analysis process involves analysis of transcripts, coding and identification of themes from data. Based on the analysis we categorized the statements of advisors into various themes. Past market returns and volatility; preference for safe returns; tendency to believe they are better than others; tendency to divide their money into different accounts/assets; tendency to hold on to loss-making assets; preference to invest in familiar securities; tendency to believe that past events were predictable; tendency to rely on the reference point; tendency to rely on other sources of information; tendency to have regret for making past decisions; tendency to have more sensitivity towards losses than gains; tendency to rely on own skills; tendency to buy rising stocks with the expectation that this rise will continue etc. are some of the major concerns showed by experts about investors. The findings of the study revealed 13 biases such as overconfidence bias, disposition effect, familiarity bias, framing effect, anchoring bias, availability bias, self-attribution bias, representativeness, mental accounting, hindsight bias, regret aversion, loss aversion and herding bias/media biases present in Indian investors. These biases have a negative connotation because they produce a distortion in the calculation of an outcome. These biases are classified under three categories such as cognitive errors, emotional biases and social interaction. The findings of this study may assist both financial service providers and researchers to understand the various psychological biases of individual investors in investment decision making. Additionally, individual investors will also be aware of the behavioural biases that will aid them to make sensible and efficient investment decisions.

Keywords: financial advisors, individual investors, investment decisions, psychological biases, qualitative thematic content analysis

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Authors: I. Stathopoulos, V. Syrgiamiotis, E. Karavasilis, A. Ploussi, I. Nikas, C. Hatzigiorgi, K. Platoni, E. P. Efstathopoulos

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Introduction: Brain and central nervous system (CNS) tumors form the second most common group of cancer in children, accounting for 30% of all childhood cancers. MRI is the key imaging technique used for the visualization and management of pediatric brain tumors. Initial characterization of tumors from MRI scans is usually performed via a radiologist’s visual assessment. However, different brain tumor types do not always demonstrate clear differences in visual appearance. Using only conventional MRI to provide a definite diagnosis could potentially lead to inaccurate results, and so histopathological examination of biopsy samples is currently considered to be the gold standard for obtaining definite diagnoses. Machine learning is defined as the study of computational algorithms that can use, complex or not, mathematical relationships and patterns from empirical and scientific data to make reliable decisions. Concerning the above, machine learning techniques could provide effective and accurate ways to automate and speed up the analysis and diagnosis for medical images. Machine learning applications in radiology are or could potentially be useful in practice for medical image segmentation and registration, computer-aided detection and diagnosis systems for CT, MR or radiography images and functional MR (fMRI) images for brain activity analysis and neurological disease diagnosis. Purpose: The objective of this study is to provide an automated tool, which may assist in the imaging evaluation and classification of brain neoplasms in pediatric patients by determining the glioma type, grade and differentiating between different brain tissue types. Moreover, a future purpose is to present an alternative way of quick and accurate diagnosis in order to save time and resources in the daily medical workflow. Materials and Methods: A cohort, of 80 pediatric patients with a diagnosis of posterior fossa tumor, was used: 20 ependymomas, 20 astrocytomas, 20 medulloblastomas and 20 healthy children. The MR sequences used, for every single patient, were the following: axial T1-weighted (T1), axial T2-weighted (T2), FluidAttenuated Inversion Recovery (FLAIR), axial diffusion weighted images (DWI), axial contrast-enhanced T1-weighted (T1ce). From every sequence only a principal slice was used that manually traced by two expert radiologists. Image acquisition was carried out on a GE HDxt 1.5-T scanner. The images were preprocessed following a number of steps including noise reduction, bias-field correction, thresholding, coregistration of all sequences (T1, T2, T1ce, FLAIR, DWI), skull stripping, and histogram matching. A large number of features for investigation were chosen, which included age, tumor shape characteristics, image intensity characteristics and texture features. After selecting the features for achieving the highest accuracy using the least number of variables, four machine learning classification algorithms were used: k-Nearest Neighbour, Support-Vector Machines, C4.5 Decision Tree and Convolutional Neural Network. The machine learning schemes and the image analysis are implemented in the WEKA platform and MatLab platform respectively. Results-Conclusions: The results and the accuracy of images classification for each type of glioma by the four different algorithms are still on process.

Keywords: image classification, machine learning algorithms, pediatric MRI, pediatric oncology

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Authors: A. Shahriari, M. Khalatbari Jafari, M. Faridi

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Abstract The Muradlu volcanic area is located in Azerbaijan province, NW Iran. The studied area exposed in a vast region includes lesser Caucasus, Southeastern Turkey, and northwestern Iran, comprising Cenozoic volcanic and plutonic massifs. The geology of this extended region was under the influence of the Alpine-Himalayan orogeny. Cenozoic magmatic activities in this vast region evolved through the northward subduction of the Neotethyan subducted slab and subsequence collision of the Arabian and Eurasian plates. Based on stratigraphy and paleontology data, most of the volcanic activities in the Muradlu area occurred in the Eocene period. The Studied volcanic rocks overly late Cretaceous limestone with disconformity. The volcanic sequence includes thick epiclastic and hyaloclastite breccia at the base, laterally changed to pillow lava and continued by hyaloclastite and lave flows at the top of the series. The lava flows display different textures from megaporphyric-phyric to fluidal and microlithic textures. The studied samples comprise picrobasalt basalt, tephrite basanite, trachybasalt, basaltic trachyandesite, phonotephrite, tephrophonolite, trachyandesite, and trachyte in compositions. Some xenoliths with lherzolitic composition are found in picrobasalt. These xenoliths are made of olivine, cpx (diopside), and opx (enstatite), probably the remain of mantle origin. Some feldspathoid minerals such as sodalite presence in the phonotephrite confirm an alkaline trend. Two types of augite phenocrysts are found in picrobasalt, basalt and trachybasalt. The first types are shapeless, with disharmony zoning and sponge texture with reaction edges probably resulted from sodic magma, which is affected by a potassic magma. The second shows a glomerocryst shape. In discriminative diagrams, the volcanic rocks show alkaline-shoshonitic trends. They contain (0.5-7.7) k2O values and plot in the shoshonitic field. Most of the samples display transitional to potassic alkaline trends, and some samples reveal sodic alkaline trends. The transitional trend probably results from the mixing of the sodic alkaline and potassic magmas. The Rare Earth Elements (REE) patterns and spider diagrams indicate enrichment of Large-Ione Lithophile Element (LILE) and depletion of High Field Strength Elements (HFSE) relative to Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE). Enrichment of K, Rb, Sr, Ba, Zr, Th, and U and the enrichment of Light Rare Earth Elements (LREE) relative to Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE) indicate the effect of subduction-related fluids over the mantle source, which has been reported in the arc and continental collision zones. The studied samples show low Nb/La ratios. Our studied samples plot in the lithosphere and lithosphere-asthenosphere fields in the Nb/La versus La/Yb ratios diagram. These geochemical characters allow us to conclude that a lithospheric mantle source previously metasomatized by subduction components was the origin of the Muradlu volcanic rocks.

Keywords: alkaline, asthenosphere, lherzolite, lithosphere, Muradlu, potassic, shoshonitic, sodic, volcanism

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Authors: Ok-Kyun Im, Kyoung Hee Kim

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We live in an era that faces global challenges of climate changes and resource depletion. With the rapid urbanization and growing energy consumption in the built environment, building facades become ever more important in architectural practice and environmental stewardship. Furthermore, building facade undergoes complex dynamics of social, cultural, environmental and technological changes. Kinetic facades have drawn attention of architects, designers, and engineers in the field of adaptable, responsive and interactive architecture since 1980’s. Materials and building technologies have gradually evolved to address the technical implications of kinetic facades. The kinetic façade is becoming an independent system of the building, transforming the design methodology to sustainable building solutions. Accordingly, there is a need for a new design methodology to guide the design of a kinetic façade and evaluate its sustainable performance. The research objectives are two-fold: First, to establish a new design methodology for kinetic facades and second, to develop a micro-oculi façade system and assess its performance using the established design method. The design approach to the micro-oculi facade is comprised of 1) façade geometry optimization and 2) dynamic building energy simulation. The façade geometry optimization utilizes multi-objective optimization process, aiming to balance the quantitative and qualitative performances to address the sustainability of the built environment. The dynamic building energy simulation was carried out using EnergyPlus and Radiance simulation engines with scripted interfaces. The micro-oculi office was compared with an office tower with a glass façade in accordance with ASHRAE 90.1 2013 to understand its energy efficiency. The micro-oculi facade is constructed with an array of circular frames attached to a pair of micro-shades called a micro-oculus. The micro-oculi are encapsulated between two glass panes to protect kinetic mechanisms with longevity. The micro-oculus incorporates rotating gears that transmit the power to adjacent micro-oculi to minimize the number of mechanical parts. The micro-oculus rotates around its center axis with a step size of 15deg depending on the sun’s position while maximizing daylighting potentials and view-outs. A 2 ft by 2ft prototyping was undertaken to identify operational challenges and material implications of the micro-oculi facade. In this research, a systematic design methodology was proposed, that integrates multi-objectives of kinetic façade design criteria and whole building energy performance simulation within a holistic design process. This design methodology is expected to encourage multidisciplinary collaborations between designers and engineers to collaborate issues of the energy efficiency, daylighting performance and user experience during design phases. The preliminary energy simulation indicated that compared to a glass façade, the micro-oculi façade showed energy savings due to its improved thermal properties, daylighting attributes, and dynamic solar performance across the day and seasons. It is expected that the micro oculi façade provides a cost-effective, environmentally-friendly, sustainable, and aesthetically pleasing alternative to glass facades. Recommendations for future studies include lab testing to validate the simulated data of energy and optical properties of the micro-oculi façade. A 1:1 performance mock-up of the micro-oculi façade can suggest in-depth understanding of long-term operability and new development opportunities applicable for urban façade applications.

Keywords: energy efficiency, kinetic facades, sustainable architecture, urban facades

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Authors: L. Sudbury-Riley, P. Hunter-Jones, L. Menzies, M. Pyrah, H. Knight

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Just as manufacturing firms aim for zero defects, service providers strive to avoid service failures where customer expectations are not met. However, because services comprise unique human interactions, service failures are almost inevitable. Consequently, firms focus on service recovery strategies to fix problems and retain their customers for the future. Because a hospice offers care to terminally ill patients, it may not get the opportunity to correct a service failure. This situation makes the identification of what hospice users really need and want, and to ascertain perceptions of the hospice’s service delivery from the user’s perspective, even more important than for other service providers. A well-documented and fundamental barrier to improving end-of-life care is a lack of service quality measurement tools that capture the experiences of user’s from their own perspective. In palliative care, many quantitative measures are used and these focus on issues such as how quickly patients are assessed, whether they receive information leaflets, whether a discussion about their emotional needs is documented, and so on. Consequently, quality of service from the user’s perspective is overlooked. The current study was designed to overcome these limitations by adapting service blueprinting - never before used in the hospice sector - in order to undertake a ‘deep-dive’ to examine the impact of hospice services upon different users. Service blueprinting is a customer-focused approach for service innovation and improvement, where the ‘onstage’ visible service user and provider interactions must be supported by the ‘backstage’ employee actions and support processes. The study was conducted in conjunction with East Cheshire Hospice in England. The Hospice provides specialist palliative care for patients with progressive life-limiting illnesses, offering services to patients, carers and families via inpatient and outpatient units. Using service blueprinting to identify every service touchpoint, in-depth qualitative interviews with 38 in-patients, outpatients, visitors and bereaved families enabled a ‘deep-dive’ to uncover perceptions of the whole service experience among these diverse users. Interviews were recorded and transcribed, and thematic analysis of over 104,000 words of data revealed many excellent aspects of Hospice service. Staff frequently exceed people’s expectations. Striking gratifying comparisons to hospitals emerged. The Hospice makes people feel safe. Nevertheless, the technique uncovered many areas for improvement, including serendipity of referrals processes, the need for better communications with external agencies, improvements amid the daunting arrival and admissions process, a desperate need for more depression counselling, clarity of communication pertaining to actual end of life, and shortcomings in systems dealing with bereaved families. The study reveals that the adapted service blueprinting tool has major advantages of alternative quantitative evaluation techniques, including uncovering the complex nature of service user’s experiences in health-care service systems, highlighting more fully the interconnected configurations within the system and making greater sense of the impact of the service upon different service users. Unlike other tools, this in-depth examination reveals areas for improvement, many of which have already been implemented by the Hospice. The technique has potential to improve experiences of palliative and end-of-life care among patients and their families.

Keywords: hospices, end-of-life-care, service blueprinting, service delivery

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Authors: Li Yang

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Tourism is employed by many countries to facilitate socioeconomic development and to assist in the heritage preservation. An “ethnic culture boom” is currently driving the tourism industry in China. Ethnic minorities, commonly portrayed as primitive, colorful and exotic, have become a big tourist draw. Many cultural attractions have been built throughout China to meet the demands of domestic tourists. Sacred cultural heritage sites have been rehabilitated as a major component of ethnic tourism. The purpose of this study is to examine the interconnected consequences of tourism development and tourism-related leisure property development and, and to discuss, in a broader context, issues and considerations that are pertinent to the management and development of ethnic attractions. The role of real estate in tourism development and its sociocultural consequences are explored. An empirical research was conducted in Yiren Ancient Town (literally, "Ancient Town of Yi People") in Chuxiong City, Yunnan Province, China. Multiple research methods, including in-depth interviews, informal discussions, on-site observations, and secondary data review were employed to measure residents and tourism decision-makers’ perceptions of ethnic tourism and to explore the impacts of tourism on local community. Key informants from government officials, tourism developers and local communities were interviewed individually to gather what they think about benefits and costs of tourism, and what their concerns about and hopes for tourism development are. Yiren Ancient Town was constructed in classical Yi architecture style featuring tranquil garden scenery. Commercial streets, entertainment complexes, and accommodation facilities occupied the center of the town, creating culturally distinctive and visually stimulating places for tourists. A variety of activities are presented to visitors, including walking tours of the town, staged dance shows, musical performances, ethnic festivals and ceremonies, tasting minority food and wedding shows. This study reveals that tourism real estate has transformed the town from a traditional neighborhood into diverse real estate landscapes. Ethnic architecture, costumes, festivals and folk culture have been represented, altered and reinvented through the tourist gaze and mechanisms of cultural production. Tourism is now a new economic driver of the community providing opportunities for the creation of small businesses. There was a general appreciation in the community that tourism has created many employment opportunities, especially for self-employment. However, profit-seeking is a primary motivation for the government, developers, businesses, and other actors involved in the tourism development process. As the town has attracted an increasing number of visitors, commercialization and business competition are intense in the town. Many residents complained about elevated land prices, making the town and the surroundings comparatively high-value locales. Local community is also concerned about the decline of traditional ethnic culture and an erosion of the sense of identity and place. A balance is difficult to maintain between protection and development. The preservation of ethnic culture and heritage should be enhanced if long-term sustainable development of tourism is to occur and the loss of ethnic identities is to be avoided.

Keywords: ancient town, ethnic tourism, local community, real estate, China

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Authors: Rosimeire Araújo Silva, Philip Martin Fearnside

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Extreme droughts and floods in the Amazon have serious consequences for natural ecosystems and the human population in the region. The frequency of these events has increased in recent years, and projections of climate change predict greater frequency and intensity of these events. Understanding the links between these extreme events and different patterns of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is essential, both to improve the modeling of climate change and its consequences and to support efforts of adaptation in the region. The relationship between sea temperatures and events in the Amazon is much more complex than is usually assumed in climatic models. Warming and cooling of different parts of the oceans, as well as the interaction between simultaneous temperature changes in different parts of each ocean and between the two oceans, have specific consequences for the Amazon, with effects on precipitation that vary in different parts of the region. Simplistic generalities, such as the association between El Niño events and droughts in the Amazon, do not capture this complexity. We investigated the variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the period 1950-2022, using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (FOE), spectral analysis coherence and wavelet phase. The two were identified as the main modes of variability, which explain about 53,9% and 13,3%, respectively, of the total variance of the data. The spectral and coherence analysis and wavelets phase showed that the first selected mode represents the warming in the central part of the Pacific Ocean (the “Central El Niño”), while the second mode represents warming in the eastern part of the Pacific (the “Eastern El Niño The effects of the 1982-1983 and 1976-1977 El Niño events in the Amazon, although both events were characterized by an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, the impact on rainfall in the Amazon was distinct. In the rainy season, from December to March, the sub-basins of the Japurá, Jutaí, Jatapu, Tapajós, Trombetas and Xingu rivers were the regions that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central (1982-1983), while the sub-basins of the Javari, Purus, Negro and Madeira rivers had the most pronounced reductions in the year of Eastern El Niño (1976-1977). In the transition to the dry season, in April, the greatest reductions were associated with the Eastern El Niño year for the majority of the study region, with the exception only of the sub-basins of the Madeira, Trombetas and Xingu rivers, which had their associated reductions to Central El Niño. In the dry season from July to September, the sub-basins of the Japurá Jutaí Jatapu Javari Trombetas and Madeira rivers were the rivers that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central, while the sub-basins of the Tapajós Purus Negro and Xingu rivers had the most pronounced reductions. In the Eastern El Niño year this season. In this way, it is possible to conclude that the Central (Eastern) El Niño controlled the reductions in soil moisture in the dry (rainy) season for all sub-basins shown in this study. Extreme drought events associated with these meteorological phenomena can lead to a significant increase in the occurrence of forest fires. These fires have a devastating impact on Amazonian vegetation, resulting in the irreparable loss of biodiversity and the release of large amounts of carbon stored in the forest, contributing to the increase in the greenhouse effect and global climate change.

Keywords: sea surface temperature, variability, climate, Amazon

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