Search results for: student modelling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4218

Search results for: student modelling

738 Regeneration of Geological Models Using Support Vector Machine Assisted by Principal Component Analysis

Authors: H. Jung, N. Kim, B. Kang, J. Choe

Abstract:

History matching is a crucial procedure for predicting reservoir performances and making future decisions. However, it is difficult due to uncertainties of initial reservoir models. Therefore, it is important to have reliable initial models for successful history matching of highly heterogeneous reservoirs such as channel reservoirs. In this paper, we proposed a novel scheme for regenerating geological models using support vector machine (SVM) and principal component analysis (PCA). First, we perform PCA for figuring out main geological characteristics of models. Through the procedure, permeability values of each model are transformed to new parameters by principal components, which have eigenvalues of large magnitude. Secondly, the parameters are projected into two-dimensional plane by multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) based on Euclidean distances. Finally, we train an SVM classifier using 20% models which show the most similar or dissimilar well oil production rates (WOPR) with the true values (10% for each). Then, the other 80% models are classified by trained SVM. We select models on side of low WOPR errors. One hundred channel reservoir models are initially generated by single normal equation simulation. By repeating the classification process, we can select models which have similar geological trend with the true reservoir model. The average field of the selected models is utilized as a probability map for regeneration. Newly generated models can preserve correct channel features and exclude wrong geological properties maintaining suitable uncertainty ranges. History matching with the initial models cannot provide trustworthy results. It fails to find out correct geological features of the true model. However, history matching with the regenerated ensemble offers reliable characterization results by figuring out proper channel trend. Furthermore, it gives dependable prediction of future performances with reduced uncertainties. We propose a novel classification scheme which integrates PCA, MDS, and SVM for regenerating reservoir models. The scheme can easily sort out reliable models which have similar channel trend with the reference in lowered dimension space.

Keywords: history matching, principal component analysis, reservoir modelling, support vector machine

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737 Economic Factors Affecting Greenfield Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical Projects in Africa

Authors: Daniel Muwooya

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This paper analyses economic factors that have affected the competitiveness of petroleum refinery and petrochemical projects in sub-Saharan Africa in the past and continue to plague greenfield projects today. Traditional factors like plant sizing and complexity, low-capacity utilization, changing regulatory environment, and tighter product specifications have been important in the past. Additional factors include the development of excess refinery capacity in Asia and the growth of renewable sources of energy – especially for transportation. These factors create both challenges and opportunities for the development of greenfield refineries and petrochemical projects in areas of increased demand growth and new low-cost crude oil production – like sub-Saharan Africa. This paper evaluates the strategies available to project developers and host countries to address contemporary issues of energy transition and the apparent reduction of funds available for greenfield oil and gas projects. The paper also evaluates the structuring of greenfield refinery and petrochemical projects for limited recourse project finance bankability. The methodology of this paper includes analysis of current industry data, conference proceedings, academic papers, and academic books on the subjects of petroleum refinery economics, refinery financing, refinery operations, and project finance generally and specifically in the oil and gas industry; evaluation of expert opinions from journal articles; working papers from international bodies like the World Bank and the International Energy Agency; and experience from playing an active role in the development and financing of US$ 10 Billion greenfield oil development project in Uganda. The paper also applies the discounted cash flow modelling to illustrate the circumstances of an inland greenfield refinery project in Uganda. Greenfield refinery and petrochemical projects are still necessary in sub-Saharan Africa to, among other aspirations, support the transition from traditional sources of energy like biomass to such modern forms as liquefied petroleum gas. Project developers and host governments will be required to structure projects that support global climate change goals without occasioning undue delays to project execution.

Keywords: financing, refinery and petrochemical economics, Africa, project finance

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736 Representational Conference Profile of Secondary Students in Understanding Selected Chemical Principles

Authors: Ryan Villafuerte Lansangan

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Assessing students’ understanding in the microscopic level of an abstract subject like chemistry poses a challenge to teachers. Literature reveals that the use of representations serves as an essential avenue of measuring the extent of understanding in the discipline as an alternative to traditional assessment methods. This undertaking explored the representational competence profile of high school students from the University of Santo Tomas High School in understanding selected chemical principles and correlate this with their academic profile in chemistry based on their performance in the academic achievement examination in chemistry administered by the Center for Education Measurement (CEM). The common misconceptions of the students on the selected chemistry principles based on their representations were taken into consideration as well as the students’ views regarding their understanding of the role of chemical representations in their learning. The students’ level of representation task instrument consisting of the main lessons in chemistry with a corresponding scoring guide was prepared and utilized in the study. The study revealed that most of the students under study are unanimously rated as Level 2 (symbolic level) in terms of their representational competence in understanding the selected chemical principles through the use of chemical representations. Alternative misrepresentations were most observed on the students’ representations on chemical bonding concepts while the concept of chemical equation appeared to be the most comprehensible topic in chemistry for the students. Data implies that teachers’ representations play an important role in helping the student understand the concept in a microscopic level. Results also showed that the academic achievement in the chemistry of the students based on the standardized CEM examination has a significant association with the students’ representational competence. In addition, the students’ responses on the students’ views in chemical representations questionnaire evidently showed a good understanding of what a chemical representation or a mental model is by drawing a negative response that these tools should be an exact replica. Moreover, the students confirmed a greater appreciation that chemical representations are explanatory tools.

Keywords: chemical representations, representational competence, academic profile in chemistry, secondary students

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735 Geometric, Energetic and Topological Analysis of (Ethanol)₉-Water Heterodecamers

Authors: Jennifer Cuellar, Angie L. Parada, Kevin N. S. Chacon, Sol M. Mejia

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The purification of bio-ethanol through distillation methods is an unresolved issue at the biofuel industry because of the ethanol-water azeotrope formation, which increases the steps of the purification process and subsequently increases the production costs. Therefore, understanding the mixture nature at the molecular level could provide new insights for improving the current methods and/or designing new and more efficient purification methods. For that reason, the present study focuses on the evaluation and analysis of (ethanol)₉-water heterodecamers, as the systems with the minimum molecular proportion that represents the azeotropic concentration (96 %m/m in ethanol). The computational modelling was carried out with B3LYP-D3/6-311++G(d,p) in Gaussian 09. Initial explorations of the potential energy surface were done through two methods: annealing simulated runs and molecular dynamics trajectories besides intuitive structures obtained from smaller (ethanol)n-water heteroclusters, n = 7, 8 and 9. The energetic order of the seven stable heterodecamers determines the most stable heterodecamer (Hdec-1) as a structure forming a bicyclic geometry with the O-H---O hydrogen bonds (HBs) where the water is a double proton donor molecule. Hdec-1 combines 1 water molecule and the same quantity of every ethanol conformer; this is, 3 trans, 3 gauche 1 and 3 gauche 2; its abundance is 89%, its decamerization energy is -80.4 kcal/mol, i.e. 13 kcal/mol most stable than the less stable heterodecamer. Besides, a way to understand why methanol does not form an azeotropic mixture with water, analogous systems ((ethanol)10, (methanol)10, and (methanol)9-water)) were optimized. Topologic analysis of the electron density reveals that Hec-1 forms 33 weak interactions in total: 11 O-H---O, 8 C-H---O, 2 C-H---C hydrogen bonds and 12 H---H interactions. The strength and abundance of the most unconventional interactions (H---H, C-H---O and C-H---O) seem to explain the preference of the ethanol for forming heteroclusters instead of clusters. Besides, O-H---O HBs present a significant covalent character according to topologic parameters as the Laplacian of electron density and the relationship between potential and kinetic energy densities evaluated at the bond critical points; obtaining negatives values and values between 1 and 2, for those two topological parameters, respectively.

Keywords: ADMP, DFT, ethanol-water azeotrope, Grimme dispersion correction, simulated annealing, weak interactions

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734 D-Lysine Assisted 1-Ethyl-3-(3-Dimethylaminopropyl)Carbodiimide / N-Hydroxy Succinimide Initiated Crosslinked Collagen Scaffold with Controlled Structural and Surface Properties

Authors: G. Krishnamoorthy, S. Anandhakumar

Abstract:

The effect of D-Lysine (D-Lys) on collagen with 1-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylaminopropyl) carbodiimide(EDC)/N-hydroxysuccinimide(NHS) initiated cross linking using experimental and modelling tools are evaluated. The results of the Coll-D-Lys-EDC/NHS scaffold also indicate an increase in the tensile strength (TS), percentage of elongation (% E), denaturation temperature (Td), and decrease the decomposition rate compared to L-Lys-EDC/NHS. Scanning electron microscopic (SEM) and atomic force microscopic (AFM) analyses revealed a well ordered with properly oriented and well-aligned structure of scaffold. The D-Lys stabilizes the scaffold against degradation by collagenase than L-Lys. The cell assay showed more than 98% fibroblast viability (NIH3T3) and improved cell adhesions, protein adsorption after 72h of culture when compared with native scaffold. Cell attachment after 74h was robust, with cytoskeletal analysis showing that the attached cells were aligned along the fibers assuming a spindle-shape appearance, despite, gene expression analyses revealed no apparent alterations in mRNA levels, although cell proliferation was not adversely affected. D-Lysine (D-Lys) plays a pivotal role in the self-assembly and conformation of collagen fibrils. The D-Lys assisted EDC/NHS initiated cross-linking induces the formation of an carboxamide by the activation of the side chain -COOH group, followed by aminolysis of the O-iso acylurea intermediates by the -NH2 groups are directly joined via an isopeptides bond. This leads to the formation of intra- and inter-helical cross links. Modeling studies indicated that D-Lys bind with collagen-like peptide (CLP) through multiple H-bonding and hydrophobic interactions. Orientational changes in collagenase on CLP-D-Lys are observed which may decrease its accessibility to degradation and stabilize CLP against the action of the former. D-Lys has lowest binding energy and improved fibrillar-assembly and staggered alignment without the undesired structural stiffness and aggregations. The proteolytic machinery is not well equipped to deal with Coll-D-Lys than Coll-L-Lys scaffold. The information derived from the present study could help in designing collagenolytically stable heterochiral collagen based scaffold for biomedical applications.

Keywords: collagen, collagenase, collagen like peptide, D-lysine, heterochiral collagen scaffold

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733 Collaborative Stylistic Group Project: A Drama Practical Analysis Application

Authors: Omnia F. Elkommos

Abstract:

In the course of teaching stylistics to undergraduate students of the Department of English Language and Literature, Faculty of Arts and Humanities, the linguistic tool kit of theories comes in handy and useful for the better understanding of the different literary genres: Poetry, drama, and short stories. In the present paper, a model of teaching of stylistics is compiled and suggested. It is a collaborative group project technique for use in the undergraduate diverse specialisms (Literature, Linguistics and Translation tracks) class. Students initially are introduced to the different linguistic tools and theories suitable for each literary genre. The second step is to apply these linguistic tools to texts. Students are required to watch videos performing the poems or play, for example, and search the net for interpretations of the texts by other authorities. They should be using a template (prepared by the researcher) that has guided questions leading students along in their analysis. Finally, a practical analysis would be written up using the practical analysis essay template (also prepared by the researcher). As per collaborative learning, all the steps include activities that are student-centered addressing differentiation and considering their three different specialisms. In the process of selecting the proper tools, the actual application and analysis discussion, students are given tasks that request their collaboration. They also work in small groups and the groups collaborate in seminars and group discussions. At the end of the course/module, students present their work also collaboratively and reflect and comment on their learning experience. The module/course uses a drama play that lends itself to the task: ‘The Bond’ by Amy Lowell and Robert Frost. The project results in an interpretation of its theme, characterization and plot. The linguistic tools are drawn from pragmatics, and discourse analysis among others.

Keywords: applied linguistic theories, collaborative learning, cooperative principle, discourse analysis, drama analysis, group project, online acting performance, pragmatics, speech act theory, stylistics, technology enhanced learning

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732 Measuring the Resilience of e-Governments Using an Ontology

Authors: Onyekachi Onwudike, Russell Lock, Iain Phillips

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The variability that exists across governments, her departments and the provisioning of services has been areas of concern in the E-Government domain. There is a need for reuse and integration across government departments which are accompanied by varying degrees of risks and threats. There is also the need for assessment, prevention, preparation, response and recovery when dealing with these risks or threats. The ability of a government to cope with the emerging changes that occur within it is known as resilience. In order to forge ahead with concerted efforts to manage reuse and integration induced risks or threats to governments, the ambiguities contained within resilience must be addressed. Enhancing resilience in the E-Government domain is synonymous with reducing risks governments face with provisioning of services as well as reuse of components across departments. Therefore, it can be said that resilience is responsible for the reduction in government’s vulnerability to changes. In this paper, we present the use of the ontology to measure the resilience of governments. This ontology is made up of a well-defined construct for the taxonomy of resilience. A specific class known as ‘Resilience Requirements’ is added to the ontology. This class embraces the concept of resilience into the E-Government domain ontology. Considering that the E-Government domain is a highly complex one made up of different departments offering different services, the reliability and resilience of the E-Government domain have become more complex and critical to understand. We present questions that can help a government access how prepared they are in the face of risks and what steps can be taken to recover from them. These questions can be asked with the use of queries. The ontology focuses on developing a case study section that is used to explore ways in which government departments can become resilient to the different kinds of risks and threats they may face. A collection of resilience tools and resources have been developed in our ontology to encourage governments to take steps to prepare for emergencies and risks that a government may face with the integration of departments and reuse of components across government departments. To achieve this, the ontology has been extended by rules. We present two tools for understanding resilience in the E-Government domain as a risk analysis target and the output of these tools when applied to resilience in the E-Government domain. We introduce the classification of resilience using the defined taxonomy and modelling of existent relationships based on the defined taxonomy. The ontology is constructed on formal theory and it provides a semantic reference framework for the concept of resilience. Key terms which fall under the purview of resilience with respect to E-Governments are defined. Terms are made explicit and the relationships that exist between risks and resilience are made explicit. The overall aim of the ontology is to use it within standards that would be followed by all governments for government-based resilience measures.

Keywords: E-Government, Ontology, Relationships, Resilience, Risks, Threats

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731 The Effect of Penalizing Wrong Answers in the Computerized Modified Multiple Choice Testing System

Authors: Min Hae Song, Jooyong Park

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Even though assessment using information and communication technology will most likely lead the future of educational assessment, there is little research on this topic. Computerized assessment will not only cut costs but also measure students' performance in ways not possible before. In this context, this study introduces a tool which can overcome the problems of multiple choice tests. Multiple-choice tests (MC) are efficient in automatic grading, however structural problems of multiple-choice tests allow students to find the correct answer from options even though they do not know the answer. A computerized modified multiple-choice testing system (CMMT) was developed using the interactivity of computers, that presents questions first, and options later for a short time when the student requests for them. This study was conducted to find out whether penalizing for wrong answers in CMMT could lower random guessing. In this study, we checked whether students knew the answers by having them respond to the short-answer tests before choosing the given options in CMMT or MC format. Ninety-four students were tested with the directions that they will be penalized for wrong answers, but not for no response. There were 4 experimental conditions: two conditions of high or low percentage of penalizing, each in traditional multiple-choice or CMMT format. In the low penalty condition, the penalty rate was the probability of getting the correct answer by random guessing. In the high penalty condition, students were penalized at twice the percentage of the low penalty condition. The results showed that the number of no response was significantly higher for the CMMT format and the number of random guesses was significantly lower for the CMMT format. There were no significant between the two penalty conditions. This result may be due to the fact that the actual score difference between the two conditions was too small. In the discussion, the possibility of applying CMMT format tests while penalizing wrong answers in actual testing settings was addressed.

Keywords: computerized modified multiple choice test format, multiple-choice test format, penalizing, test format

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730 Model Order Reduction of Complex Airframes Using Component Mode Synthesis for Dynamic Aeroelasticity Load Analysis

Authors: Paul V. Thomas, Mostafa S. A. Elsayed, Denis Walch

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Airframe structural optimization at different design stages results in new mass and stiffness distributions which modify the critical design loads envelop. Determination of aircraft critical loads is an extensive analysis procedure which involves simulating the aircraft at thousands of load cases as defined in the certification requirements. It is computationally prohibitive to use a Global Finite Element Model (GFEM) for the load analysis, hence reduced order structural models are required which closely represent the dynamic characteristics of the GFEM. This paper presents the implementation of Component Mode Synthesis (CMS) method for the generation of high fidelity Reduced Order Model (ROM) of complex airframes. Here, sub-structuring technique is used to divide the complex higher order airframe dynamical system into a set of subsystems. Each subsystem is reduced to fewer degrees of freedom using matrix projection onto a carefully chosen reduced order basis subspace. The reduced structural matrices are assembled for all the subsystems through interface coupling and the dynamic response of the total system is solved. The CMS method is employed to develop the ROM of a Bombardier Aerospace business jet which is coupled with an aerodynamic model for dynamic aeroelasticity loads analysis under gust turbulence. Another set of dynamic aeroelastic loads is also generated employing a stick model of the same aircraft. Stick model is the reduced order modelling methodology commonly used in the aerospace industry based on stiffness generation by unitary loading application. The extracted aeroelastic loads from both models are compared against those generated employing the GFEM. Critical loads Modal participation factors and modal characteristics of the different ROMs are investigated and compared against those of the GFEM. Results obtained show that the ROM generated using Craig Bampton CMS reduction process has a superior dynamic characteristics compared to the stick model.

Keywords: component mode synthesis, craig bampton reduction method, dynamic aeroelasticity analysis, model order reduction

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729 Identification and Optimisation of South Africa's Basic Access Road Network

Authors: Diogo Prosdocimi, Don Ross, Matthew Townshend

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Road authorities are mandated within limited budgets to both deliver improved access to basic services and facilitate economic growth. This responsibility is further complicated if maintenance backlogs and funding shortfalls exist, as evident in many countries including South Africa. These conditions require authorities to make difficult prioritisation decisions, with the effect that Road Asset Management Systems with a one-dimensional focus on traffic volumes may overlook the maintenance of low-volume roads that provide isolated communities with vital access to basic services. Given these challenges, this paper overlays the full South African road network with geo-referenced information for population, primary and secondary schools, and healthcare facilities to identify the network of connective roads between communities and basic service centres. This connective network is then rationalised according to the Gross Value Added and number of jobs per mesozone, administrative and functional road classifications, speed limit, and road length, location, and name to estimate the Basic Access Road Network. A two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method, capturing a weighted assessment of drive-time to service centres and the ratio of people within a catchment area to teachers and healthcare workers, is subsequently applied to generate a Multivariate Road Index. This Index is used to assign higher maintenance priority to roads within the Basic Access Road Network that provide more people with better access to services. The relatively limited incidence of Basic Access Roads indicates that authorities could maintain the entire estimated network without exhausting the available road budget before practical economic considerations get any purchase. Despite this fact, a final case study modelling exercise is performed for the Namakwa District Municipality to demonstrate the extent to which optimal relocation of schools and healthcare facilities could minimise the Basic Access Road Network and thereby release budget for investment in roads that best promote GDP growth.

Keywords: basic access roads, multivariate road index, road prioritisation, two-step floating catchment area method

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728 Predicting Returns Volatilities and Correlations of Stock Indices Using Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive Range and Return Models

Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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727 The Effect of Health Promoting Programs on Patient's Life Style after Coronary Artery Bypass Graft–Hospitalized in Shiraz Hospitals

Authors: Azizollah Arbabisarjou, Leila Safabakhsh, Mozhgan Jahantigh, Mahshid Nazemzadeh, Shahindokht Navabi

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Background: Health promotion is an essential strategy for reduction of health disparities. Health promotion includes all activities that encourage optimum physical, spiritual, and mental function. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of a Health Promotion Program (HPP) on behavior in terms of the dimensions of the Health Promoting Lifestyle Profile (HPLP) in patients after Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG). Methods and Materials: In this clinical trial study, 80 patients who had undergone CABG surgery (2011-2012) were selected and randomly divided in two groups: Experimental and Control that investigated by (HPLP II). Then the experimental group was educated about diet, walking and stress management. The program process was followed up for 3months and after that all variables were investigated again. The overall score and the scores for the six dimensions of the HPLP (self-actualization, health responsibility, exercise, nutrition, interpersonal support and stress management) were measured in the pre- and post-test periods. Statistical analysis was performed using Student's t-test and paired t-test. Results: Results showed that Score of stress management (p=.036), diet (p=.002), Spiritual Growth (p=.001) and interrelationship (p=002) increase in experimental group after intervention .Average scores after 3 months in the control group had no significant changes; except responsibility for health (p < .05). Results of the study revealed that comparison the scores of the experimental group were significantly different from the control group in all lifestyle aspects except for spiritual growth. Conclusion: This study showed that Health promoting program on lifestyle and health promotion in patients who suffer from CAD could enhance patient's awareness of healthy behaviors and improves the quality of life.

Keywords: coronary artery bypass graft, health promotion, lifestyle, education

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726 Adopting Structured Mini Writing Retreats as a Tool for Undergraduate Researchers

Authors: Clare Cunningham

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Whilst there is a strong global research base on the benefits of structured writing retreats and similar provisions, such as Shut Up and Write events, for academic staff and postgraduate researchers, very little has been published about the worth of such events for undergraduate students. This is despite the fact that, internationally, undergraduate student researchers experience similar pressures, distractions and feelings towards writing as those who are at more senior levels within the academy. This paper reports on a mixed-methods study with cohorts of third-year undergraduate students over the course of four academic years. This involved a range of research instruments adopted over the four years of the study. They include the administration of four questionnaires across three academic years, a collection of ethnographic recordings in the second year, and the collation of reflective journal entries and evaluations from all four years. The final two years of data collection took place during the period of Covid-19 restrictions when writing retreats moved to the virtual space which adds an additional dimension of interest to the analysis. The analysis involved the collation of quantitative questionnaire data to observe patterns in expressions of attitudes towards writing. Qualitative data were analysed thematically and used to corroborate and support the quantitative data when appropriate. The resulting data confirmed that one of the biggest challenges for undergraduate students mirrors those reported in the findings of studies focused on more experienced researchers. This is not surprising, especially given the number of undergraduate students who now work alongside their studies, as well as the increasing number who have caring responsibilities, but it has, as yet, been under-reported. The data showed that the groups of writing retreat participants all had very positive experiences, with accountability, a sense of community and procrastination avoidance some of the key aspects. The analysis revealed the sometimes transformative power of these events for a number of these students in terms of changing the way they viewed writing and themselves as writers. The data presented in this talk will support the proposal that retreats should much more widely be offered to undergraduate students across the world.

Keywords: academic writing, students, undergraduates, writing retreat

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725 Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Modelling to Support Alternative Fuels Maritime Operations Incident Planning & Impact Assessments

Authors: Chow Jeng Hei, Pavel Tkalich, Low Kai Sheng Bryan

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Due to the growing demand for sustainability in the maritime industry, there has been a significant increase in focus on alternative fuels such as biofuels, liquefied natural gas (LNG), hydrogen, methanol and ammonia to reduce the carbon footprint of vessels. Alternative fuels offer efficient transportability and significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions, a critical factor in combating global warming. In an era where the world is determined to tackle climate change, the utilization of methanol is projected to witness a consistent rise in demand, even during downturns in the oil and gas industry. Since 2022, there has been an increase in methanol loading and discharging operations for industrial use in Singapore. These operations were conducted across various storage tank terminals at Jurong Island of varying capacities, which are also used to store alternative fuels for bunkering requirements. The key objective of this research is to support the green shipping industries in the transformation to new fuels such as methanol and ammonia, especially in evolving the capability to inform risk assessment and management of spills. In the unlikely event of accidental spills, a highly reliable forecasting system must be in place to provide mitigation measures and ahead planning. The outcomes of this research would lead to an enhanced metocean prediction capability and, together with advanced sensing, will continuously build up a robust digital twin of the bunkering operating environment. Outputs from the developments will contribute to management strategies for alternative marine fuel spills, including best practices, safety challenges and crisis management. The outputs can also benefit key port operators and the various bunkering, petrochemicals, shipping, protection and indemnity, and emergency response sectors. The forecasted datasets provide a forecast of the expected atmosphere and hydrodynamic conditions prior to bunkering exercises, enabling a better understanding of the metocean conditions ahead and allowing for more refined spill incident management planning

Keywords: clean fuels, hydrodynamics, coastal engineering, impact assessments

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724 Absorption Kinetic and Tensile Mechanical Properties of Swollen Elastomer/Carbon Black Nanocomposites using Typical Solvents

Authors: F. Elhaouzi, H. Lahlali, M. Zaghrioui, I. El Aboudi A. BelfKira, A. Mdarhri

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The effect of physico chemical properties of solvents on the transport process and mechanical properties in elastomeric nano composite materials is reported. The investigated samples are formed by a semi-crystalline ethylene-co-butyl acrylate polymer filled with hard spherical carbon black (CB) nano particles. The swelling behavior was studied by immersion the dried samples in selected solvents at room temperature during 2 days. For this purpose, two chemical compounds methyl derivatives of aromatic hydrocarbons of benzene, i.e. toluene and xylene, are used to search for the mass and molar volume dependence on the absorption kinetics. Mass gain relative to the mass of dry material at specific times was recorded to probe the absorption kinetics. The transport of solvent molecules in these filled elastomeric composites is following a Fickian diffusion mechanism. Additionally, the swelling ratio and diffusivity coefficient deduced from the Fickian law are found to decrease with the CB concentration. These results indicate that the CB nano particles increase the effective path length for diffusion and consequently limit the absorption of the solvent by occupation free volumes in the material. According to physico chemical properties of the two used solvents, it is found that the diffusion is more important for the toluene molecules solvent due to their low values of the molecular weight and volume molar compared to those for the xylene. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and X-ray photo electron (XPS) were also used to probe the eventual change in the chemical composition for the swollen samples. Mechanically speaking, the stress-strain curves of uniaxial tensile tests pre- and post- swelling highlight a remarkably decrease of the strength and elongation at break of the swollen samples. This behavior can be attributed to the decrease of the load transfer density between the matrix and the CB in the presence of the solvent. We believe that the results reported in this experimental investigation can be useful for some demanding applications e.g. tires, sealing rubber.

Keywords: nanocomposite, absorption kinetics, mechanical behavior, diffusion, modelling, XPS, DSC

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723 Knowledge Co-Production on Future Climate-Change-Induced Mass-Movement Risks in Alpine Regions

Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

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The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

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722 Joint Training Offer Selection and Course Timetabling Problems: Models and Algorithms

Authors: Gianpaolo Ghiani, Emanuela Guerriero, Emanuele Manni, Alessandro Romano

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In this article, we deal with a variant of the classical course timetabling problem that has a practical application in many areas of education. In particular, in this paper we are interested in high schools remedial courses. The purpose of such courses is to provide under-prepared students with the skills necessary to succeed in their studies. In particular, a student might be under prepared in an entire course, or only in a part of it. The limited availability of funds, as well as the limited amount of time and teachers at disposal, often requires schools to choose which courses and/or which teaching units to activate. Thus, schools need to model the training offer and the related timetabling, with the goal of ensuring the highest possible teaching quality, by meeting the above-mentioned financial, time and resources constraints. Moreover, there are some prerequisites between the teaching units that must be satisfied. We first present a Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) model to solve this problem to optimality. However, the presence of many peculiar constraints contributes inevitably in increasing the complexity of the mathematical model. Thus, solving it through a general purpose solver may be performed for small instances only, while solving real-life-sized instances of such model requires specific techniques or heuristic approaches. For this purpose, we also propose a heuristic approach, in which we make use of a fast constructive procedure to obtain a feasible solution. To assess our exact and heuristic approaches we perform extensive computational results on both real-life instances (obtained from a high school in Lecce, Italy) and randomly generated instances. Our tests show that the MIP model is never solved to optimality, with an average optimality gap of 57%. On the other hand, the heuristic algorithm is much faster (in about the 50% of the considered instances it converges in approximately half of the time limit) and in many cases allows achieving an improvement on the objective function value obtained by the MIP model. Such an improvement ranges between 18% and 66%.

Keywords: heuristic, MIP model, remedial course, school, timetabling

Procedia PDF Downloads 601
721 Audio-Lingual Method and the English-Speaking Proficiency of Grade 11 Students

Authors: Marthadale Acibo Semacio

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Speaking skill is a crucial part of English language teaching and learning. This actually shows the great importance of this skill in English language classes. Through speaking, ideas and thoughts are shared with other people, and a smooth interaction between people takes place. The study examined the levels of speaking proficiency of the control and experimental groups on pronunciation, grammatical accuracy, and fluency. As a quasi-experimental study, it also determined the presence or absence of significant changes in their speaking proficiency levels in terms of pronouncing the words correctly, the accuracy of grammar and fluency of a language given the two methods to the groups of students in the English language, using the traditional and audio-lingual methods. Descriptive and inferential statistics were employed according to the stated specific problems. The study employed a video presentation with prior information about it. In the video, the teacher acts as model one, giving instructions on what is going to be done, and then the students will perform the activity. The students were paired purposively based on their learning capabilities. Observing proper ethics, their performance was audio recorded to help the researcher assess the learner using the modified speaking rubric. The study revealed that those under the traditional method were more fluent than those in the audio-lingual method. With respect to the way in which each method deals with the feelings of the student, the audio-lingual one fails to provide a principle that would relate to this area and follows the assumption that the intrinsic motivation of the students to learn the target language will spring from their interest in the structure of the language. However, the speaking proficiency levels of the students were remarkably reinforced in reading different words through the aid of aural media with their teachers. The study concluded that using an audio-lingual method of teaching is not a stand-alone method but only an aid of the teacher in helping the students improve their speaking proficiency in the English Language. Hence, audio-lingual approach is encouraged to be used in teaching English language, on top of the chalk-talk or traditional method, to improve the speaking proficiency of students.

Keywords: audio-lingual, speaking, grammar, pronunciation, accuracy, fluency, proficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 61
720 An Object-Oriented Modelica Model of the Water Level Swell during Depressurization of the Reactor Pressure Vessel of the Boiling Water Reactor

Authors: Rafal Bryk, Holger Schmidt, Thomas Mull, Ingo Ganzmann, Oliver Herbst

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Prediction of the two-phase water mixture level during fast depressurization of the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) resulting from an accident scenario is an important issue from the view point of the reactor safety. Since the level swell may influence the behavior of some passive safety systems, it has been recognized that an assumption which at the beginning may be considered as a conservative one, not necessary leads to a conservative result. This paper discusses outcomes obtained during simulations of the water dynamics and heat transfer during sudden depressurization of a vessel filled up to a certain level with liquid water under saturation conditions and with the rest of the vessel occupied by saturated steam. In case of the pressure decrease e.g. due to the main steam line break, the liquid water evaporates abruptly, being a reason thereby, of strong transients in the vessel. These transients and the sudden emergence of void in the region occupied at the beginning by liquid, cause elevation of the two-phase mixture. In this work, several models calculating the water collapse and swell levels are presented and validated against experimental data. Each of the models uses different approach to calculate void fraction. The object-oriented models were developed with the Modelica modelling language and the OpenModelica environment. The models represent the RPV of the Integral Test Facility Karlstein (INKA) – a dedicated test rig for simulation of KERENA – a new Boiling Water Reactor design of Framatome. The models are based on dynamic mass and energy equations. They are divided into several dynamic volumes in each of which, the fluid may be single-phase liquid, steam or a two-phase mixture. The heat transfer between the wall of the vessel and the fluid is taken into account. Additional heat flow rate may be applied to the first volume of the vessel in order to simulate the decay heat of the reactor core in a similar manner as it is simulated at INKA. The comparison of the simulations results against the reference data shows a good agreement.

Keywords: boiling water reactor, level swell, Modelica, RPV depressurization, thermal-hydraulics

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719 Promoting Students' Worldview Through Integrative Education in the Process of Teaching Biology in Grades 11 and 12 of High School

Authors: Saule Shazhanbayeva, Denise van der Merwe

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Study hypothesis: Nazarbayev Intellectual School of Kyzylorda’s Biology teachers can use STEM-integrated learning to improve students' problem-solving ability and responsibility as global citizens. The significance of this study is to indicate how the use of STEM integrative learning during Biology lessons could contribute to forming globally-minded students who are responsible community members. For the purposes of this study, worldview is defined as a view that is broader than the country of Kazakhstan, allowing students to see the significance of their scientific contributions to the world as global citizens. The context of worldview specifically indicates that most students have never traveled outside of their city or region within Kazakhstan. In order to broaden student understanding, it is imperative that students are exposed to different world views and contrasting ideas within the educational setting of Biology as the science being used for the research. This exposure promulgates students understanding of the significance they have as global citizens alongside the obligations which would rest on them as scientifically minded global citizens. Integrative learning should be Biological Science - with Technology and engineering in the form of problem-solving, and Mathematics to allow improved problem-solving skills to develop within the students of Nazarbayev Intellectual School (NIS) of Kyzylorda. The school's vision is to allow students to realise their role as global citizens and become responsible community members. STEM allows integrations by combining four subject skills to solve topical problems designed by educators. The methods used are based on qualitative analysis: for students’ performance during a problem-solution scenario; and Biology teacher interviews to ascertain their understanding of STEM implementation and willingness to integrate it into current lessons. The research indicated that NIS is ready for a shift into STEM lessons to promote globally responsible students. The only additional need is for proper STEM integrative lesson method training for teachers.

Keywords: global citizen, STEM, Biology, high-school

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
718 Numerical Modelling of Wind Dispersal Seeds of Bromeliad Tillandsia recurvata L. (L.) Attached to Electric Power Lines

Authors: Bruna P. De Souza, Ricardo C. De Almeida

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In some cities in the State of Parana – Brazil and in other countries atmospheric bromeliads (Tillandsia spp - Bromeliaceae) are considered weeds in trees, electric power lines, satellite dishes and other artificial supports. In this study, a numerical model was developed to simulate the seed dispersal of the Tillandsia recurvata species by wind with the objective of evaluating seeds displacement in the city of Ponta Grossa – PR, Brazil, since it is considered that the region is already infested. The model simulates the dispersal of each individual seed integrating parameters from the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and the local wind, simulated by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model for the 2012 to 2015 period. The dispersal model also incorporates the approximate number of bromeliads and source height data collected from most infested electric power lines. The seeds terminal velocity, which is an important input data but was not available in the literature, was measured by an experiment with fifty-one seeds of Tillandsia recurvata. Wind is the main dispersal agent acting on plumed seeds whereas atmospheric turbulence is a determinant factor to transport the seeds to distances beyond 200 meters as well as to introduce random variability in the seed dispersal process. Such variability was added to the model through the application of an Inverse Fast Fourier Transform to wind velocity components energy spectra based on boundary-layer meteorology theory and estimated from micrometeorological parameters produced by the WRF model. Seasonal and annual wind means were obtained from the surface wind data simulated by WRF for Ponta Grossa. The mean wind direction is assumed to be the most probable direction of bromeliad seed trajectory. Moreover, the atmospheric turbulence effect and dispersal distances were analyzed in order to identify likely regions of infestation around Ponta Grossa urban area. It is important to mention that this model could be applied to any species and local as long as seed’s biological data and meteorological data for the region of interest are available.

Keywords: atmospheric turbulence, bromeliad, numerical model, seed dispersal, terminal velocity, wind

Procedia PDF Downloads 135
717 Creating a Multilevel ESL Learning Community for Adults

Authors: Gloria Chen

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When offering conventional level-appropriate ESL classes for adults is not feasible, a multilevel adult ESL class can be formed to benefit those who need to learn English for daily function. This paper examines the rationale, the process, the contents, and the outcomes of a multilevel ESL class for adults. The action research discusses a variety of assessments, lesson plans, teaching strategies that facilitate lifelong language learning. In small towns where adult ESL learners are only a handful, often advanced students and inexperienced students have to be placed in one class. Such class might not be viewed as desirable, but with on-going assessments, careful lesson plans, and purposeful strategies, a multilevel ESL class for adults can overcome the obstacles and help learners to reach a higher level of English proficiency. This research explores some hand-on strategies, such as group rotating, cooperative learning, and modifying textbook contents for practical purpose, and evaluate their effectiveness. The data collected in this research include Needs Assessment (beginning of class term), Mid-term Self-Assessment (5 months into class term), End-of-term Student Reflection (10 months into class), and End-of-term Assessment from the Instructor (10 months into class). A descriptive analysis of the data explains the practice of this particular learning community, and reveal the areas for improvement and enrichment. This research answers the following questions: (1) How do the assessments positively help both learners and instructors? (2) How do the learning strategies prepare students to become independent, life-long English learners? (3) How do materials, grouping, and class schedule enhance the learning? The result of the research contributes to the field of teaching and learning in language, not limited in English, by (a) examining strategies of conducting a multilevel adult class, (b) involving adult language learners with various backgrounds and learning styles for reflection and feedback, and (c) improving teaching and learning strategies upon research methods and results. One unique feature of this research is how students can work together with the instructor to form a learning community, seeking and exploring resources available to them, to become lifelong language learners.

Keywords: adult language learning, assessment, multilevel, teaching strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 344
716 Primary School Students’ Modeling Processes: Crime Problem

Authors: Neslihan Sahin Celik, Ali Eraslan

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As a result of PISA (Program for International Student Assessments) survey that tests how well students can apply the knowledge and skills they have learned at school to real-life challenges, the new and redesigned mathematics education programs in many countries emphasize the necessity for the students to face complex and multifaceted problem situations and gain experience in this sense allowing them to develop new skills and mathematical thinking to prepare them for their future life after school. At this point, mathematical models and modeling approaches can be utilized in the analysis of complex problems which represent real-life situations in which students can actively participate. In particular, model eliciting activities that bring about situations which allow the students to create solutions to problems and which involve mathematical modeling must be used right from primary school years, allowing them to face such complex, real-life situations from early childhood period. A qualitative study was conducted in a university foundation primary school in the city center of a big province in 2013-2014 academic years. The participants were 4th grade students in a primary school. After a four-week preliminary study applied to a fourth-grade classroom, three students included in the focus group were selected using criterion sampling technique. A focus group of three students was videotaped as they worked on the Crime Problem. The conversation of the group was transcribed, examined with students’ written work and then analyzed through the lens of Blum and Ferri’s modeling processing cycle. The results showed that primary fourth-grade students can successfully work with model eliciting problem while they encounter some difficulties in the modeling processes. In particular, they developed new ideas based on different assumptions, identified the patterns among variables and established a variety of models. On the other hand, they had trouble focusing on problems and occasionally had breaks in the process.

Keywords: primary school, modeling, mathematical modeling, crime problem

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715 How to Prevent From Skin Complications in Diabetes Type 2 in View Point of Student of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences

Authors: Zahra Abdi, Roghayeh Alipour, Babak Farahi Ghasraboonasr

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Introduction: Diabetes is a serious medical condition that requires constant care. People with type 2 diabetes may also be likely to experience dry, itchy skin and poor wound healing. Some people with diabetes will have a skin problems at some time in their lives and for those not yet diagnosed with diabetes, a skin problem can be an indication of the disease. our purpose was to assess the capability and knowledge of students of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences about prevent from skin complications in diabetes type 2. Methods: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, knowledge of 360 students of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences was evaluated about different ways to avoid skin complications in diabetes type 2. Data were analyzed by spss19.(P<0.05) was considered significant. Results: 360 students of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences participated in this study. 45% of students agree with the effect of Moisturize skin daily, If Diabetics have sensitive skin, choose a fragrance-free, dye-free moisturizer that won’t irritate skin. 52% believe that Protect skin from sun can be so useful, Sun exposure is drying and aging. Use sunscreen with SPF 30 or higher whenever you’re outside. Wear gloves when doing yardwork to protect the skin on your hands. 62% of students strongly agree with Carefully clean any cuts and scrapes, If diabetics notice any sign of infection skin that’s red, swollen, or warm to the touch, or has a foul-smelling drainage or pus should consulting with a doctor immediately. Diabetics should be careful about any injury that takes longer than normal to heal and they should consulting with doctor about them too. 72% of students believe that diabetics should be diligent about daily foot care. Clean and moisturize feet each day and check each foot closely, top and bottom, for wounds even a tiny cut, blisters, or cracked skin. Conclusions: The risk of getting these diabetes complications can be lessened by controlling blood sugar. Skin complications can cause serious consequences. Taking care of skin is so important and using these tips are remarkable effective and help diabetics to look after their skin easier.

Keywords: skin complications, diabetes type 2, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, diabetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
714 Advancing Inclusive Curriculum Development for Special Needs Education in Africa

Authors: Onosedeba Mary Ayayia

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Inclusive education has emerged as a critical global imperative, aiming to provide equitable educational opportunities for all, regardless of their abilities or disabilities. In Africa, the pursuit of inclusive education faces significant challenges, particularly concerning the development and implementation of inclusive curricula tailored to the diverse needs of students with disabilities. This study delves into the heart of this issue, seeking to address the pressing problem of exclusion and marginalization of students with disabilities in mainstream educational systems across the continent. The problem is complex, entailing issues of limited access to tailored curricula, shortages of qualified teachers in special needs education, stigmatization, limited research and data, policy gaps, inadequate resources, and limited community awareness. These challenges perpetuate a system where students with disabilities are systematically excluded from quality education, limiting their future opportunities and societal contributions. This research proposes a comprehensive examination of the current state of inclusive curriculum development and implementation in Africa. Through an innovative and explicit exploration of the problem, the study aims to identify effective strategies, guidelines, and best practices that can inform the development of inclusive curricula. These curricula will be designed to address the diverse learning needs of students with disabilities, promote teacher capacity building, combat stigmatization, generate essential data, enhance policy coherence, allocate adequate resources, and raise community awareness. The goal of this research is to contribute to the advancement of inclusive education in Africa by fostering an educational environment where every student, regardless of ability or disability, has equitable access to quality education. Through this endeavor, the study aligns with the broader global pursuit of social inclusion and educational equity, emphasizing the importance of inclusive curricula as a foundational step towards a more inclusive and just society.

Keywords: inclusive education, special education, curriculum development, Africa

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713 The Importance of Reflection and Collegial Support for Clinical Instructors When Evaluating Failing Students in a Clinical Nursing Course

Authors: Maria Pratt, Lynn Martin

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Context: In nursing education, clinical instructors are crucial in assessing and evaluating students' performance in clinical courses. However, instructors often struggle when assigning failing grades to students at risk of failing. Research Aim: This qualitative study aims to understand clinical instructors' experiences evaluating students with unsatisfactory performance, including how reflection and collegial support impact this evaluation process. Methodology, Data Collection, and Analysis Procedures: This study employs Gadamer's Hermeneutic Inquiry as the research methodology. A purposive maximum variation sampling technique was used to recruit eight clinical instructors from a collaborative undergraduate nursing program in Southwestern Ontario. Semi-structured, open-ended, and audio-taped interviews were conducted with the participants. The hermeneutic analysis was applied to interpret the interview data to allow for a thorough exploration and interpretation of the instructors' experiences evaluating failing students. Findings: The main findings of this qualitative research indicate that evaluating failing students was emotionally draining for the clinical instructors who experienced multiple challenges, uncertainties, and negative feelings associated with assigning failing grades. However, the analysis revealed that ongoing reflection and collegial support played a crucial role in mitigating the challenges they experienced. Conclusion: This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of nursing education by shedding light on clinical instructors' challenges in evaluating failing students. It emphasizes the emotional toll associated with this process and the role that reflection and collegial support play in alleviating those challenges. The findings underscore the need for ongoing professional development and support for instructors in nursing education. By understanding and addressing clinical instructors' experiences, nursing education programs can better equip them to effectively evaluate struggling students and provide the necessary support for their professional growth.

Keywords: clinical instructor, student evaluation, nursing, reflection, support

Procedia PDF Downloads 81
712 Investigation of Wind Farm Interaction with Ethiopian Electric Power’s Grid: A Case Study at Ashegoda Wind Farm

Authors: Fikremariam Beyene, Getachew Bekele

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Ethiopia is currently on the move with various projects to raise the amount of power generated in the country. The progress observed in recent years indicates this fact clearly and indisputably. The rural electrification program, the modernization of the power transmission system, the development of wind farm is some of the main accomplishments worth mentioning. As it is well known, currently, wind power is globally embraced as one of the most important sources of energy mainly for its environmentally friendly characteristics, and also that once it is installed, it is a source available free of charge. However, integration of wind power plant with an existing network has many challenges that need to be given serious attention. In Ethiopia, a number of wind farms are either installed or are under construction. A series of wind farm is planned to be installed in the near future. Ashegoda Wind farm (13.2°, 39.6°), which is the subject of this study, is the first large scale wind farm under construction with the capacity of 120 MW. The first phase of 120 MW (30 MW) has been completed and is expected to be connected to the grid soon. This paper is concerned with the investigation of the wind farm interaction with the national grid under transient operating condition. The main concern is the fault ride through (FRT) capability of the system when the grid voltage drops to exceedingly low values because of short circuit fault and also the active and reactive power behavior of wind turbines after the fault is cleared. On the wind turbine side, a detailed dynamic modelling of variable speed wind turbine of a 1 MW capacity running with a squirrel cage induction generator and full-scale power electronics converters is done and analyzed using simulation software DIgSILENT PowerFactory. On the Ethiopian electric power corporation side, after having collected sufficient data for the analysis, the grid network is modeled. In the model, a fault ride-through (FRT) capability of the plant is studied by applying 3-phase short circuit on the grid terminal near the wind farm. The results show that the Ashegoda wind farm can ride from voltage deep within a short time and the active and reactive power performance of the wind farm is also promising.

Keywords: squirrel cage induction generator, active and reactive power, DIgSILENT PowerFactory, fault ride-through capability, 3-phase short circuit

Procedia PDF Downloads 163
711 Russian pipeline natural gas export strategy under uncertainty

Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

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Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 54
710 Green Procedure for Energy and Emission Balancing of Alternative Scenario Improvements for Cogeneration System: A Case of Hardwood Lumber Manufacturing Process

Authors: Aldona Kluczek

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Energy efficient process have become a pressing research field in manufacturing. The arguments for having an effective industrial energy efficiency processes are interacted with factors: economic and environmental impact, and energy security. Improvements in energy efficiency are most often achieved by implementation of more efficient technology or manufacturing process. Current processes of electricity production represents the biggest consumption of energy and the greatest amount of emissions to the environment. The goal of this study is to improve the potential energy-savings and reduce greenhouse emissions related to improvement scenarios for the treatment of hardwood lumber produced by an industrial plant operating in the U.S. through the application of green balancing procedure, in order to find the preferable efficient technology. The green procedure for energy is based on analysis of energy efficiency data. Three alternative scenarios of the cogeneration systems plant (CHP) construction are considered: generation of fresh steam, the purchase of a new boiler with the operating pressure 300 pounds per square inch gauge (PSIG), an installation of a new boiler with a 600 PSIG pressure. In this paper, the application of a bottom-down modelling for energy flow to devise a streamlined Energy and Emission Flow Analyze method for the technology of producing electricity is illustrated. It will identify efficiency or technology of a given process to be reached, through the effective use of energy, or energy management. Results have shown that the third scenario seem to be the efficient alternative scenario considered from the environmental and economic concerns for treating hardwood lumber. The energy conservation evaluation options could save an estimated 6,215.78 MMBtu/yr in each year, which represents 9.5% of the total annual energy usage. The total annual potential cost savings from all recommendations is $143,523/yr, which represents 30.1% of the total annual energy costs. Estimation have presented that energy cost savings are possible up to 43% (US$ 143,337.85), representing 18.6% of the total annual energy costs.

Keywords: alternative scenario improvements, cogeneration system, energy and emission flow analyze, energy balancing, green procedure, hardwood lumber manufacturing process

Procedia PDF Downloads 201
709 Comparison of Medical Students Evaluation by Serious Games and Clinical Case-Multiple Choice Questions

Authors: Chamtouri I., Kechida M.

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Background: Evaluation has a prominent role in medical education and graduation. This evaluation has usually done in face-to-face, by written or oral questions. Simulation is increasingly taking a part as a method of evaluation. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which disrupted face-to-face evaluation, simulation using serious games (SG) is emerging in the field of training and assessment of medical students. The aim of our study is to compare the results of the evaluation of medical students by virtual simulation by online serious games versus clinical case-multiple choice questions (MCQ) and to assess the degree of satisfaction from these two evaluation methods. Methods: Medical students from the same study level were voluntarily participated in this study. Groupe 1 had an evaluation by SG dealing with “diagnosis and management of ST-segment elevationmyocardialinfarction (STEMI)alreadyprepared on the website www.Mediactiv.com. Groupe 2 were evaluated by clinical case-MCQ having thes same topic as SG. Results of the two groups were compared. Satisfaction questionnaire was filled by the two groups. Satisfaction degree was compared between the two groups. Results. In this study, 64 medical students (G1:31 and G2: 33) were enrolled. Obtaining complete notes in the "questioning" and "clinical examination" parts is significantly more important in-group 1 compared to group 2. No significant difference detected between the two groups in terms of “ECG interpretation” and “diagnosis of STEMI” parts. A greater number of students of group 1 obtained the full note compared to group 2 in “the initial treatment part” (54.8% vs. 39.4%; p = 0.04). Thirty learners (96.8%) in-group 1 obtained a total score ≥ 50% versus 69.7% in-group 2 (p = 0.004). The full score of 100% was obtained in three learners in-group1, while no student scored 100% in-group2 (p = 0.027). Medical evaluation using SG was reported as more innovative, fun, and realistic compared to evaluation by clinical case-MCQ. No significant difference detected between the two methods in terms of stress. Conclusion: Simulation by SG can be considered as an innovative and effective method in evaluating medical students with a higher degree of satisfaction.

Keywords: evaluation, serious games, medical students, satisfaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 137