Search results for: stochastic covariance process

Authors: Xiaohui Zhao, Shahan Mafuz

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Context-aware technologies provide system applications with the awareness of environmental conditions, customer behaviour, object movements, etc. Further, with such capability system applications can be smart to adapt intelligently their responses to the changing conditions. Concerning business operations, this promises businesses that their business processes can run more intelligently, adaptively and flexibly, and thereby either improve customer experience, enhance reliability of service delivery, or lower operational cost, to make the business more competitive and sustainable. Aiming at realizing such context-aware business process management, this paper firstly explores its potential benefit and then identifies some gaps between the current business process management support and the expected. In addition, some preliminary solutions are also discussed with context definition, rule-based process execution, run-time process evolution, etc. A framework is also presented to give a conceptual architecture of context-aware business process management system to guide system implementation.

Keywords: business process adaptation, business process evolution, business process modelling, and context awareness

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: Marcos Devaner, Marcela Alves, Cledson Braga, Fabiano Alves, Wilton Bezerra

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This article discusses the inclusion of people with disabilities in the process of testing an accessible system solution for distance education. The accessible system, team profile, methodologies and techniques covered in the testing process are presented. The testing process shown in this paper was designed from the experience with user. The testing process emerged from lessons learned from past experiences and the end user is present at all stages of the tests. Also, lessons learned are reported and how it was possible the maturing of the team and the methods resulting in a simple, productive and effective process.

Keywords: experience report, accessible systems, software testing, testing process, systems, e-learning

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Authors: M. T. Alodat

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In this paper, we propose a mechanism for skewing any symmetric distribution. The new distribution is called the deflation-inflation distribution (DID). We discuss some statistical properties of the DID such moments, stochastic representation, log-concavity. Also we fit the distribution to real data and we compare it to normal distribution and Azzlaini's skew normal distribution. Numerical results show that the DID fits the the tree ring data better than the other two distributions.

Keywords: normal distribution, moments, Fisher information, symmetric distributions

Procedia PDF Downloads 639

Authors: Mojahid F. Saeed Osman

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Repairable items inventory system is a management tool used to incorporate all information concerning inventory levels and movements for repaired and new items. This paper presents development of an effective simulation model for managing the inventory of repairable items for a production system where production lines send their faulty items to a repair shop considering the stochastic failure behavior and repair times. The developed model imitates the process of handling the on-hand inventory of repaired items and the replenishment of the inventory of new items using Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy in a flexible and risk-free environment. We demonstrate the appropriateness and effectiveness of the proposed simulation model using an illustrative case problem. The developed simulation model can be used as a reliable tool for estimating a healthy on-hand inventory of new and repaired items, backordered items, and downtime due to unavailability of repaired items, and validating and examining Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy, which would further be compared with other ordering strategies as future work.

Keywords: inventory system, repairable items, simulation, maintenance, economic order quantity, reorder point

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: L. M. López López, J. V. Montesdeoca Contreras, A. R. Cuji Fajardo, L. E. Garzón Muñoz, J. I. Fajardo Seminario

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In this article a new method of cleaning process of metal sheets for household appliances was developed, using low-pressure cold plasma. In this context, this research consist in analyze the results of metal sheets cleaning process using plasma and compare with pickling process to determinate the efficiency of each process and the level of contamination produced. Surface Cleaning was evaluated by measuring the contact angle with deionized water, diiodo methane and ethylene glycol, for the calculus of the surface free energy by means of the Fowkes theories and Wu. Showing that low-pressure cold plasma is very efficient both in cleaning process how in environment impact.

Keywords: efficient use of plasma, ecological impact of plasma, metal sheets cleaning means, plasma cleaning process.

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: D. Zhang, H. Y. Du, G. W. Li, J. Zeng, D. W. Zuo, Y. P. You

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For the difficult issues of process selection, case-based reasoning technology is applied to computer aided process planning system for cold form tapping of internal threads on the basis of similarity in the process. A model is established based on the analysis of process planning. Case representation and similarity computing method are given. Confidence degree is used to evaluate the case. Rule-based reuse strategy is presented. The scheme is illustrated and verified by practical application. The case shows the design results with the proposed method are effective.

Keywords: case-based reasoning, internal thread, cold extrusion, process planning

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Authors: Paul Rowley, Adam Thirkill, Nick Doylend, Philip Leicester, Becky Gough

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The dynamic performance of all energy generation technologies is impacted to varying degrees by the stochastic properties of the wider system within which the generation technology is located. This stochasticity can include the varying nature of ambient renewable energy resources such as wind or solar radiation, or unpredicted changes in energy demand which impact upon the operational behaviour of thermal generation technologies. An understanding of these stochastic impacts are especially important in contexts such as highly distributed (or embedded) generation, where an understanding of issues affecting the individual or aggregated performance of high numbers of relatively small generators is especially important, such as in ESCO projects. Probabilistic evaluation of monitored or simulated performance data is one technique which can provide an insight into the dynamic performance characteristics of generating systems, both in a prognostic sense (such as the prediction of future performance at the project’s design stage) as well as in a diagnostic sense (such as in the real-time analysis of underperforming systems). In this work, we describe the development, application and outcomes of a new approach to the acquisition of datasets suitable for use in the subsequent performance and impact analysis (including the use of Bayesian approaches) for a number of distributed generation technologies. The application of the approach is illustrated using a number of case studies involving domestic and small commercial scale photovoltaic, solar thermal and natural gas boiler installations, and the results as presented show that the methodology offers significant advantages in terms of plant efficiency prediction or diagnosis, along with allied environmental and social impacts such as greenhouse gas emission reduction or fuel affordability.

Keywords: renewable energy, dynamic performance simulation, Bayesian analysis, distributed generation

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Authors: M. V. Manoj Kumar, Likewin Thomas, Annappa

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Process mining provides methods and techniques for analyzing event logs recorded in modern information systems that support real-world operations. While analyzing an event-log, state-of-the-art techniques available in process mining believe that the operational process as a static entity (stationary). This is not often the case due to the possibility of occurrence of a phenomenon called concept drift. During the period of execution, the process can experience concept drift and can evolve with respect to any of its associated perspectives exhibiting various patterns-of-change with a different pace. Work presented in this paper discusses the main aspects to consider while addressing concept drift phenomenon and proposes a method for detecting and localizing the sudden concept drifts in control-flow perspective of the process by using features extracted by processing the traces in the process log. Our experimental results are promising in the direction of efficiently detecting and localizing concept drift in the context of process mining research discipline.

Keywords: abrupt drift, concept drift, sudden drift, control-flow perspective, detection and localization, process mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Mohammed Abu Shquier

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This paper introduces a word segmentation method using the novel BP-LSTM-CRF architecture for processing semantic output training. The objective of web morphological analysis tools is to link a formal morpho-syntactic description to a lemma, along with morpho-syntactic information, a vocalized form, a vocalized analysis with morpho-syntactic information, and a list of paradigms. A key objective is to continuously enhance the proposed system through an inductive learning approach that considers semantic influences. The system is currently under construction and development based on data-driven learning. To evaluate the tool, an experiment on homograph analysis was conducted. The tool also encompasses the assumption of deep binary segmentation hypotheses, the arbitrary choice of trigram or n-gram continuation probabilities, language limitations, and morphology for both Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) and Dialectal Arabic (DA), which provide justification for updating this system. Most Arabic word analysis systems are based on the phonotactic morpho-syntactic analysis of a word transmitted using lexical rules, which are mainly used in MENA language technology tools, without taking into account contextual or semantic morphological implications. Therefore, it is necessary to have an automatic analysis tool taking into account the word sense and not only the morpho-syntactic category. Moreover, they are also based on statistical/stochastic models. These stochastic models, such as HMMs, have shown their effectiveness in different NLP applications: part-of-speech tagging, machine translation, speech recognition, etc. As an extension, we focus on language modeling using Recurrent Neural Network (RNN); given that morphological analysis coverage was very low in dialectal Arabic, it is significantly important to investigate deeply how the dialect data influence the accuracy of these approaches by developing dialectal morphological processing tools to show that dialectal variability can support to improve analysis.

Keywords: NLP, DL, ML, analyser, MSA, RNN, CNN

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Authors: Theodore Halnon, Martin Bojowald

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In relativity, time is relative between reference frames. However, quantum mechanics requires a specific time coordinate in order to write an evolution equation for wave functions. This difference between the two theories leads to the problem of time in quantum gravity. One method to study quantum relativity is to interpret the dynamics of a matter field as a clock. In order to test the relationship between different reference frames, an isotropic cosmological model with two matter ingredients is introduced. One is given by a scalar field and one by vacuum energy or a cosmological constant. There are two matter fields, and thus two different Hamiltonians are derived from the respective clock rates. Semi-classical solutions are found for these equations and a comparison is made of the physical predictions that they imply.

Keywords: cosmology, deparameterization, general relativity, quantum mechanics

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Authors: Hideaki Endo, Mika Goto

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The global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has seriously affected railway businesses. The number of railway passengers decreased due to the decline in the number of commuters and business travelers to avoid crowded trains and a sharp drop in inbound tourists visiting Japan. This has affected not only railway businesses but also related businesses, including hotels, leisure businesses, and retail businesses at station buildings. In 2021, the companies were divided into profitable and loss-making companies. This division suggests that railway companies, particularly loss-making companies, needed to decrease operational inefficiency. To measure the impact of COVID-19 and discuss the sustainable management strategies of railway companies, we examine the cost inefficiency of Japanese listed railway companies by applying stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to their operational and financial data. First, we employ the stochastic frontier cost function approach to measure inefficiency. The cost frontier function is formulated as a Cobb–Douglas type, and we estimated parameters and variables for inefficiency. This study uses panel data comprising 26 Japanese-listed railway companies from 2005 to 2020. This period includes several events deteriorating the business environment, such as the financial crisis from 2007 to 2008 and the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, and we compare those impacts with those of the COVID-19 pandemic after 2020. Second, we identify the characteristics of the best-practice railway companies and examine the drivers of cost inefficiencies. Third, we analyze the factors influencing cost inefficiency by comparing the profiles of the top 10 railway companies and others before and during the pandemic. Finally, we examine the relationship between cost inefficiency and the implementation of efficiency measures for each railway company. We obtained the following four findings. First, most Japanese railway companies showed the lowest cost inefficiency (most efficient) in 2014 and the highest in 2020 (least efficient) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The second worst occurred in 2009 when it was affected by the financial crisis. However, we did not observe a significant impact of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. This is because no railway company was influenced by the earthquake in this operating area, except for JR-EAST. Second, the best-practice railway companies are KEIO and TOKYU. The main reason for their good performance is that both operate in and near the Tokyo metropolitan area, which is densely populated. Third, we found that non-best-practice companies had a larger decrease in passenger kilometers than best-practice companies. This indicates that passengers made fewer long-distance trips because they refrained from inter-prefectural travel during the pandemic. Finally, we found that companies that implement more efficiency improvement measures had higher cost efficiency and they effectively used their customer databases through proactive DX investments in marketing and asset management.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, stochastic frontier analysis, railway sector, cost efficiency

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Authors: Paffrath Meinhard, Zhou Yayun, Guo Yiqing, Ertl Harald

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Winding geometry design is an important part of power transformer electrical design. Conventionally, the winding geometry is designed manually, which is a time-consuming job because it involves many iteration steps in order to meet all cost, manufacturing and electrical requirements. Here a method is presented which automatically generates the winding geometry for given user parameters and allows the user to interactively set and change parameters. To achieve this goal, the winding problem is transferred to a mixed integer nonlinear optimization problem. The relevant geometrical design parameters are defined as optimization variables. The cost and other requirements are modeled as constraints. For the solution, a stochastic ant colony optimization algorithm is applied. It is well-known, that an optimizer can get stuck in a local minimum. For the winding problem, we present efficient strategies to come out of local minima, furthermore a reduced variable search range helps to accelerate the solution process. Numerical examples show that the optimization result is delivered within seconds such that the user can interactively change the variable search area and constraints to improve the design.

Keywords: ant colony optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, power transformer, winding design

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Authors: Unchalee Inkampa, Tuanjai Somboonwiwat

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Painting process of automobiles and automobile parts, which is a continuous process based on EDP (Electrode position paint, EDP). Through EDP, all work pieces will be continuously sent to the painting process. Work process can be divided into 2 groups based on the running time: Painting Room 1 and Painting Room 2. This leads to continuous operation. The problem that arises is waiting for workloads onto Painting Room. The grading process EDP to Painting Room is a major problem. Therefore, this paper aim to develop production sequencing method by applying EDP to painting process. It also applied fixed rate launching for painting room and earliest due date (EDD) for EDP process and swap pairwise interchange for waiting time to a minimum of machine. The result found that the developed method could improve painting reduced waiting time, on time delivery, meeting customers wants and improved productivity of painting unit.

Keywords: sequencing, mixed model lines, painting process, electrode position paint

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Authors: M. V. Manoj Kumar, Likewin Thomas, Annappa

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Process mining research discipline bridges the gap between data mining and business process modeling and analysis, it offers the process-centric and end-to-end methods/techniques for analyzing information of real-world process detailed in operational event-logs. In this paper, we have proposed a notation called trace logo for graphically representing control-flow perspective (order of execution of activities) of process. A trace logo consists of a stack of activity names at each position, sizes of the activity name indicates their frequency in the traces and the total height of the activity depicts the information content of the position. A trace logo created from a set of aligned traces generated using Multiple Trace Alignment technique.

Keywords: consensus trace, process mining, multiple trace alignment, trace logo

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Authors: Nikhil Deshpande, Rahul Mahajan

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Laser Beam Machining (LBM) is a non-traditional machining process that has inherent problems like dross, striation, and Heat Affected Zone (HAZ) which reduce the quality of machining. In the present day scenario, these problems are controlled only by iteratively adjusting a large number of process parameters. This paper applies Axiomatic Design principles to design LBM process so as to eliminate the problem of dross and striation and minimize the effect of HAZ. Process parameters and their ranges are proposed to set-up the LBM process, execute the cut and finish the workpiece so as to obtain the best quality cut.

Keywords: laser beam machining, dross, striation, heat affected zone, axiomatic design

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Authors: Himanshu Payal, Sachin Maheshwari, Pushpendra S. Bharti

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Electrical discharge machining (EDM), a non-conventional machining process, finds wide applications for shaping difficult-to-cut alloys. Process modeling of EDM is required to exploit the process to the fullest. Process modeling of EDM is a challenging task owing to involvement of so many electrical and non-electrical parameters. This work is an attempt to model the EDM process using artificial neural network (ANN). Experiments were carried out on die-sinking EDM taking Inconel 825 as work material. ANN modeling has been performed using experimental data. The prediction ability of trained network has been verified experimentally. Results indicate that ANN can predict the values of performance measures of EDM satisfactorily.

Keywords: artificial neural network, EDM, metal removal rate, modeling, surface roughness

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Authors: P. Selyshchev

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We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.

Keywords: irradiation, primary defects, interaction, fluctuations

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Maryam Shayan

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Programming frameworks have been utilized as a part of chemical industry process safety operation and configuration to enhance its effectiveness. This paper gives a brief survey and investigation of the best in class and effects of programming frameworks in process security. A study was completed by talking staff accountable for procedure wellbeing practices in the Iranian chemical process industry and diving into writing of innovation for procedure security. This article investigates the useful and operational attributes of programming frameworks for security and endeavors to sort the product as indicated by its level of effect in the administration chain of importance. The study adds to better comprehension of the parts of Information Communication Technology in procedure security, the future patterns and conceivable gaps for innovative work.

Keywords: programming frameworks, chemical industry process, process security, administration chain, information communication technology

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Authors: Marzieh Talebzadeh Shoushtari

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The present study aimed to determine the effectiveness of Metaphor therapy on depression among female students. The sample included 60 female students with depression symptoms selected by simple sampling and randomly divided into two equal groups (experimental and control groups). Beck Depression Inventory was used to measure the variables. This was an experimental study with a pre-test/post-test design with control group. Eight metaphor therapy sessions were held for the experimental group. A post-test was administered to both groups. Data were analyzed using multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA). Results showed that the Metaphor therapy decreased depression in the experimental group compared to the control group.

Keywords: metaphor therapy, depression, female, students

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Authors: Konstantinos Liagkouras, Konstantinos Metaxiotis

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In this paper we present a classification of the various technologies applied for the solution of the portfolio selection problem according to the discipline and the methodological framework followed. We provide a concise presentation of the emerged categories and we are trying to identify which methods considered obsolete and which lie at the heart of the debate. On top of that, we provide a comparative study of the different technologies applied for efficient portfolio construction and we suggest potential paths for future work that lie at the intersection of the presented techniques.

Keywords: portfolio selection, optimization techniques, financial models, stochastic, heuristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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The real-time fault monitoring and diagnosis of large scale production processes is helpful and necessary in order to operate industrial process safely and efficiently producing good final product quality. Unusual and abnormal events of the process may have a serious impact on the process such as malfunctions or breakdowns. This work try to utilize process measurement data obtained in an on-line basis for the safe and some fault-free operation of industrial processes. To this end, this work evaluated the proposed intelligent process data monitoring framework based on a simulation process. The monitoring scheme extracts the fault pattern in the reduced space for the reliable data representation. Moreover, this work shows the results of using linear and nonlinear techniques for the monitoring purpose. It has shown that the nonlinear technique produced more reliable monitoring results and outperforms linear methods. The adoption of the qualitative monitoring model helps to reduce the sensitivity of the fault pattern to noise.

Keywords: process data, data mining, process operation, real-time monitoring

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Naza Djafarova, Tony Bates, Margaret Verkuyl, Leonora Zefi, Ozgur Turetken, Alex Ferworn, Mastrilli Paula, Daria Romaniuk, Kosha Bramesfeld, Anastasia Dimitriadou, Cheryl To

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Designing serious games for education is a challenging and resource-intensive effort. If a well-designed process that balances pedagogical principles with game mechanics is in place, it can help to simplify the design process of serious games and increase efficiency. Multidisciplinary teams involved in designing serious games can benefit tremendously from such a process in their endeavours to develop and implement these games at undergraduate and graduate levels. This paper presentation will outline research results on identified gaps within existing processes and frameworks and present an adapted process that emerged from the research. The research methodology was based on a survey, semi-structured interviews and workshops for testing the adapted process for game design. Based on the findings, the authors propose a simple process for the pre-production stage of serious game design that may help guide multidisciplinary teams in their work. This process was used to facilitate team brainstorming, and is currently being tested to assess if multidisciplinary teams find value in using it in their process of designing serious games.

Keywords: serious game-design, multidisciplinary team, game design framework, learning games, multidisciplinary game design process

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Authors: Emmanuel Ogundimu, Esther Akinlabi, Mutiu Erinosho

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In this research, studies were done on the material characterization of type 304 austenitic stainless steel weld produced by TIG (Tungsten Inert Gas) and MIG (Metal Inert Gas) welding processes. This research is aimed to establish optimized process parameters that will result in a defect-free weld joint, homogenous distribution of the iron (Fe), chromium (Cr) and nickel (Ni) was observed at the welded joint of all the six samples. The welded sample produced at the current of 170 A by TIG welding process had the highest ultimate tensile strength (UTS) value of 621 MPa at the welds zone, and the welded sample produced by MIG process at the welding current of 150 A had the lowest UTS value of 568 MPa. However, it was established that TIG welding process is more appropriate for the welding of type 304 austenitic stainless steel compared to the MIG welding process.

Keywords: microhardness, microstructure, tensile, MIG welding, process, tensile, shear stress TIG welding, TIG-MIG welding

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Authors: Danielle Katrina Santos, Koji Shimada

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Environmentally-friendly agriculture has been promoted for over two decades as a response to the environmental challenges brought by climate change and biological loss. Located above the equator, it is possible that Japan may benefit from future climate change, yet Japan is also a rarely developed country located in the Asian Monsoon climate region, making it vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this regard, the Japanese government has initiated policies to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change through the promotion and popularization of environmentally-friendly farming practices. This study aims to determine profit efficiency among environmentally-friendly rice farmers in Shiga Prefecture using the Stochastic Frontier Approach. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 66 farmers from top rice-producing cities through a structured questionnaire. Results showed that the gross farm income of environmentally-friendly rice farmers was higher by JPY 316,223.00/ha. Production costs were also found to be higher among environmentally-friendly rice farmers, especially on labor costs, which accounted for 32% of the total rice production cost. The resulting net farm income of environmentally-friendly rice farmers was only higher by JPY 18,044/ha. Results from the stochastic frontier analysis further showed that the profit efficiency of conventional farmers was only 69% as compared to environmentally-friendly rice farmers who had a profit efficiency of 76%. Furthermore, environmentally-friendly agriculture participation, other types of subsidy, educational level, and farm size were significant factors positively influencing profit efficiency. The study concluded that substitution of environmentally-friendly agriculture for conventional rice farming would result in an increased profit efficiency due to the direct payment subsidy and price premium received. The direct government policies that would strengthen the popularization of environmentally-friendly agriculture to increase the production of environmentally-friendly products and reduce pollution load to the Lake Biwa ecosystem.

Keywords: profit efficiency, environmentally-friendly agriculture, rice farmers, direct payment subsidies

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Authors: Apichit Svang-Ariyaskul, Thanapat Chaireongsirikul, Pawit Tangviroon

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Distillation consumes enormous quantity of energy. This work proposed a process to recover the energy from exit streams during the distillation process of three consecutive columns. There are several novel techniques to recover the heat with the distillation system; however, a complex control system is required. This work proposed a simpler technique by exchanging the heat between streams without interrupting the internal distillation process that might cause a serious control problem. The proposed process is executed by using heat exchanger network with pinch analysis to maximize the process heat recovery. The test model is the distillation of butane, pentane, hexane, and heptanes, which is a common mixture in the petroleum refinery. This proposed process saved the energy consumption for hot and cold utilities of 29 and 27%, which is considered significant. Therefore, the recovery of heat from exit streams from distillation process is proved to be effective for energy saving.

Keywords: distillation, heat exchanger, network pinch analysis, chemical engineering

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Authors: Julio Macedo

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Several methodologies are now available to conceive the improvements of a process so that it becomes competitive as for example total quality, process reengineering, six sigma, define measure analysis improvement control method. These improvements are of different nature and can be external to the process represented by an optimization model or a discrete simulation model. In addition, the process stakeholders are several and have different desired performances for the process. Hence, the methodologies above do not have a tool to aid in the conception of the required improvements. In order to fill this void we suggest the use of intelligent reference models. A reference model is a set of qualitative differential equations and an objective function that minimizes the gap between the current and the desired performance indexes of the process. The reference models are intelligent so when they receive the current state of the problematic process and the desired performance indexes they generate the required improvements for the problematic process. The reference models are fuzzy cognitive maps added with an objective function and trained using the improvements implemented by the high performance firms. Experiments done in a set of students show the reference models allow them to conceive more improvements than students that do not use these models.

Keywords: continuous improvement, fuzzy cognitive maps, process competitiveness, qualitative simulation, system dynamics

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Authors: Ioanna Taouki, Marie Lallier, David Soto

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Metacognition refers to the capacity to reflect upon our own cognitive processes. Although there is an ongoing discussion in the literature on the role of metacognition in learning and academic achievement, little is known about its neurodevelopmental trajectories in early childhood, when children begin to receive formal education in reading. Here, we evaluate the metacognitive ability, estimated under a recently developed Signal Detection Theory model, of a cohort of children aged between 6 and 7 (N=60), who performed three two-alternative-forced-choice tasks (two linguistic: lexical decision task, visual attention span task, and one non-linguistic: emotion recognition task) including trial-by-trial confidence judgements. Our study has three aims. First, we investigated how metacognitive ability (i.e., how confidence ratings track accuracy in the task) relates to performance in general standardized tasks related to students' reading and general cognitive abilities using Spearman's and Bayesian correlation analysis. Second, we assessed whether or not young children recruit common mechanisms supporting metacognition across the different task domains or whether there is evidence for domain-specific metacognition at this early stage of development. This was done by examining correlations in metacognitive measures across different task domains and evaluating cross-task covariance by applying a hierarchical Bayesian model. Third, using robust linear regression and Bayesian regression models, we assessed whether metacognitive ability in this early stage is related to the longitudinal learning of children in a linguistic and a non-linguistic task. Notably, we did not observe any association between students’ reading skills and metacognitive processing in this early stage of reading acquisition. Some evidence consistent with domain-general metacognition was found, with significant positive correlations between metacognitive efficiency between lexical and emotion recognition tasks and substantial covariance indicated by the Bayesian model. However, no reliable correlations were found between metacognitive performance in the visual attention span and the remaining tasks. Remarkably, metacognitive ability significantly predicted children's learning in linguistic and non-linguistic domains a year later. These results suggest that metacognitive skill may be dissociated to some extent from general (i.e., language and attention) abilities and further stress the importance of creating educational programs that foster students’ metacognitive ability as a tool for long term learning. More research is crucial to understand whether these programs can enhance metacognitive ability as a transferable skill across distinct domains or whether unique domains should be targeted separately.

Keywords: confidence ratings, development, metacognitive efficiency, reading acquisition

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Authors: Christoph Köster

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Supplier selection is one of the key challenges in supply chain management and can be considered a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In the 1960s, it evolved from considering only economic criteria, such as price, quality, and performance, to including environmental and social criteria nowadays. Although receiving considerable attention from scholars and practitioners over the past decades, existing research has not considered governance criteria so far. This is, however, surprising, as ESG (environmental, social, and governance) criteria have gained considerable attention. In order to complement ESG criteria in the supplier selection process, this study investigates German DAX and MDAX companies and evaluates the impact of governance criteria along their supplier selection process. Moreover, it proposes a set of criteria for the respective process steps. Specifically, eleven criteria for the first process step and five criteria for the second process step are identified. This paper contributes to a better understanding of the supplier selection process by elucidating the relevance of governance criteria in the supplier selection process and providing a set of empirically developed governance criteria. These results can be applied by practitioners to complement the criteria set in the supplier selection process and thus balance economic, environmental, social, and governance targets.

Keywords: ESG, governance, sustainable supplier selection, sustainability

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Authors: Felix Baumann, Aleksandar Milutinovic, Dieter Roller

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Up to this point business process management projects in general and business process modelling projects in particular could not rely on a practical and scientifically validated method to estimate cost and effort. Especially the model development phase is not covered by a cost estimation method or model. Further phases of business process modelling starting with implementation are covered by initial solutions which are discussed in the literature. This article proposes a method of filling this gap by deriving a cost estimation method from available methods in similar domains namely software development or software engineering. Software development is regarded as closely similar to process modelling as we show. After the proposition of this method different ideas for further analysis and validation of the method are proposed. We derive this method from COCOMO II and Function Point which are established methods of effort estimation in the domain of software development. For this we lay out similarities of the software development rocess and the process of process modelling which is a phase of the Business Process Management life-cycle.

Keywords: COCOMO II, busines process modeling, cost estimation method, BPM COCOMO

Procedia PDF Downloads 417