Search results for: simulated rainfall events

Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

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This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation

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Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

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The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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Authors: T. Jayanthi, K. Velusamy, H. Seetha, S. A. V. Satya Murty

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Verification and Validation of Simulated Process Model is the most important phase of the simulator life cycle. Evaluation of simulated process models based on Verification and Validation techniques checks the closeness of each component model (in a simulated network) with the real system/process with respect to dynamic behaviour under steady state and transient conditions. The process of Verification and validation helps in qualifying the process simulator for the intended purpose whether it is for providing comprehensive training or design verification. In general, model verification is carried out by comparison of simulated component characteristics with the original requirement to ensure that each step in the model development process completely incorporates all the design requirements. Validation testing is performed by comparing the simulated process parameters to the actual plant process parameters either in standalone mode or integrated mode. A Full Scope Replica Operator Training Simulator for PFBR - Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor has been developed at IGCAR, Kalpakkam, INDIA named KALBR-SIM (Kalpakkam Breeder Reactor Simulator) wherein the main participants are engineers/experts belonging to Modeling Team, Process Design and Instrumentation and Control design team. This paper discusses the Verification and Validation process in general, the evaluation procedure adopted for PFBR operator training Simulator, the methodology followed for verifying the models, the reference documents and standards used etc. It details out the importance of internal validation by design experts, subsequent validation by external agency consisting of experts from various fields, model improvement by tuning based on expert’s comments, final qualification of the simulator for the intended purpose and the difficulties faced while co-coordinating various activities.

Keywords: Verification and Validation (V&V), Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), Kalpakkam Breeder Reactor Simulator (KALBR-SIM), steady state, transient state

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Authors: Aniket Alam, Sravya Gurram

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This paper proposes a categorization of sport that is based on the system of rules that a sport must adhere to. We focus on these systems of rules to examine how a winner is produced in different sports. The rules of a sport dictate the game play and the direction it takes. We propose to break down the game play into events. At this junction, we observe two kinds of events that constitute the game play of a sport –ones that follow sequential logic and ones that do not. Our focus is pertained to sports that are comprised of sequential events. To examine these events further, to understand how a winner emerges, we take the help of finite-state automaton from the theory of computation (Automata theory). We showcase how sequential sports are eligible to be represented as finite state machines. We depict these finite state machines as state diagrams. We examine these state diagrams to observe how a team/player reaches the final states of the sport, with a special focus on one final state –the final state which determines the winner. This exercise has been carried out for the following sports: Hurdles, Track, Shot Put, Long Jump, Bowling, Badminton, Pacman and Weightlifting (Snatch). Based on our observations of how this final state of winning is achieved, we propose a categorization of sports.

Keywords: sport classification, sport modelling, ontology, automata theory

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Authors: Balogun R. Ayodeji, Adefisan E. Adesanya, Adeyewa Z. Debo, E. C. Okogbue

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The need to investigate diurnal weather circles in West Africa is coined in the fact that complex interactions often results from diurnal weather patterns. This study investigates diurnal circles of wind, rainfall and convective properties using six (6) hour interval data from the ERA-Interim and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The seven distinct zones, used in this work and classified as rainforest (west-coast, dry, Nigeria-Cameroon), Savannah (Nigeria, and Central Africa and South Sudan (CASS)), Sudano-Sahel, and Sahel, were clearly indicated by the rainfall pattern in each zones. Results showed that the land‐ocean warming contrast was more strongly sensitive to seasonal cycle and has been very weak during March-May (MAM) but clearly spelt out during June-September (JJAS). Dipoles of wind convergence/divergence and wet/dry precipitation, between CASS and Nigeria Savannah zones, were identified in morning and evening hours of MAM, whereas distinct night and day anomaly, in the same location of CASS, were found to be consistent during the JJAS season. Diurnal variation of convective properties showed that stratiform precipitation, due to the extremely low occurrence of flashcount climatology, was dominant during morning hours for both MAM and JJAS than other periods of the day. On the other hand, diurnal variation of the system sizes showed that small system sizes were most dominant during the day time periods for both MAM and JJAS, whereas larger system sizes were frequent during the evening, night, and morning hours. The locations of flashcount and system sizes agreed with earlier results that morning and day-time hours were dominated by stratiform precipitation and small system sizes respectively. Most results clearly showed that the eastern locations of Sudano and Sahel were consistently dry because rainfall and precipitation features were predominantly few. System sizes greater than or equal to 800 km² were found in the western axis of the Sudano and Sahel zones, whereas the eastern axis, particularly in the Sahel zone, had minimal occurrences of small/large system sizes. From the results of locations of extreme systems, flashcount greater than 275 in one single system was never observed during the morning (6Z) diurnal, whereas, the evening (18Z) diurnal had the most frequent cases (at least 8) of flashcount exceeding 275 in one single system. Results presented had shown the importance of diurnal variation in understanding precipitation, flashcount, system sizes patterns at diurnal scales, and understanding land-ocean contrast, precipitation, and wind field anomaly at diurnal scales.

Keywords: convective properties, diurnal circle, flashcount, system sizes

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC). By considering two sets of data (raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data, while in the simulated data the return values show an increasing trend with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend with an upper bound. This clearly shows that although temperatures in the tropics show a sign of increase in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedance. The results of this paper are very vital in agricultural and environmental research.

Keywords: forecasting, generalized extreme value (GEV), meteorology, return level

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Authors: Khuram Nawaz Sadozai, Sonia

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The agriculture sector is deemed more vulnerable to climate change as its variation can directly affect the crop’s productivity, but farmers’ adaptation strategies play a vital role in climate change-agriculture relationship. Therefore, this research has been undertaken to assess the Climate Change impact on wheat productivity and farmers’ adaptability strategies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. The panel dataset was analyzed to gauge the impact of changing climate variables (i.e., temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on wheat productivity from 1985 to 2015. Amid the study period, the fixed effect estimates confirmed an inverse relationship of temperature and rainfall on the wheat yield. The impact of temperature is observed to be detrimental as compared to the rainfall, causing 0.07 units reduction in the production of wheat with 1C upsurge in temperature. On the flip side, humidity revealed a positive association with the wheat productivity by confirming that high humidity could be beneficial to the production of the crop over time. Thus, this study ensures significant nexus between agricultural production and climatic parameters. However, the farming community in the underlying study area has limited knowledge about the adaptation strategies to lessen the detrimental impact of changing climate on crop yield. It is recommended that farmers should be well equipped with training and advanced agricultural management practices under the realm of climate change. Moreover, innovative technologies pertinent to the agriculture system should be encouraged to handle the challenges arising due to variations in climate factors.

Keywords: climate change, fixed effect model, panel data, wheat productivity

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Authors: Mejía M. Paula, Ramírez L. Leonardo, Puerta A. Gabriel

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In telemedicine, the image repository service is important to increase the accuracy of diagnostic support of medical personnel. This study makes comparison between two routing algorithms regarding the quality of service (QoS), to be able to analyze the optimal performance at the time of loading and/or downloading of medical images. This study focused on comparing the performance of Tabu Search with other heuristic and metaheuristic algorithms that improve QoS in telemedicine services in Colombia. For this, Tabu Search and Simulated Annealing heuristic algorithms are chosen for their high usability in this type of applications; the QoS is measured taking into account the following metrics: Delay, Throughput, Jitter and Latency. In addition, routing tests were carried out on ten images in digital image and communication in medicine (DICOM) format of 40 MB. These tests were carried out for ten minutes with different traffic conditions, reaching a total of 25 tests, from a server of Universidad Militar Nueva Granada (UMNG) in Bogotá-Colombia to a remote user in Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH) - Chile. The results show that Tabu search presents a better QoS performance compared to Simulated Annealing, managing to optimize the routing of medical images, a basic requirement to offer diagnostic images services in telemedicine.

Keywords: medical image, QoS, simulated annealing, Tabu search, telemedicine

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Authors: L. Rashidian, M. Rajabali

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Climate changes have unpredictable and costly effects on water resources of various basins. The impact of atmospheric phenomena on human life and the environment is so significant that only knowledge of management can reduce its consequences. In this study, using LARS.WG model and down scaling of general circulation climate model HADCM-3 and according to the IPCC scenarios, including series A1b, A2 and B1, we simulated data from 2010 to 2040 in order to using them for long term forecasting of climate parameters of the Caspian Sea and its impact on sea level. Our research involves collecting data on monthly precipitation amounts, minimum and maximum temperature and daily sunshine hours, from meteorological organization for Caspian Sea coastal station such as Gorgan, Ramsar, Rasht, Anzali, Astara and Ghaemshahr since their establishment until 2010. Considering the fact that the fluctuation range of water level in the Caspian Sea has various ups and downs in different times, there is an increase in minimum and maximum temperature for all the mentioned scenarios, which will last until 2040. Overall, the amount of rainfall in cities bordering the Caspian Sea was studied based on the three scenarios, which shows an increase in the amount. However, there will be a decrease in water level of the Caspian Sea till 2040.

Keywords: IPCC, climate change, atmospheric circulation, Caspian Sea, HADCM3, sea level

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Authors: Halil Ibrahim Demir, Abdullah Hulusi Kokcam, Fuat Simsir, Özer Uygun

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Traditionally, three important manufacturing functions which are process planning, scheduling and due-date assignment are performed sequentially and separately. Although there are numerous works on the integration of process planning and scheduling and plenty of works focusing on scheduling with due date assignment, there are only a few works on integrated process planning, scheduling and due-date assignment. Although due-dates are determined without taking into account of weights of the customers in the literature, here weighted due-date assignment is employed to get better performance. Jobs are scheduled according to weighted earliest due date dispatching rule and due dates are determined according to some popular due date assignment methods by taking into account of the weights of each job. Simulated Annealing, Evolutionary Strategies, Random Search, hybrid of Random Search and Simulated Annealing, and hybrid of Random Search and Evolutionary Strategies, are applied as solution techniques. Three important manufacturing functions are integrated step-by-step and higher integration levels are found better. Search meta-heuristics are found to be very useful while improving performance measure.

Keywords: process planning, weighted scheduling, weighted due-date assignment, simulated annealing, evolutionary strategies, hybrid searches

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Authors: Dimphna Ezikanyi, Gloria Sakwari

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Airborne pollen and fungal spores are major triggers of allergies, and their abundance and seasonality depend on plant responses to climatic and meteorological variables. A survey of seasonal prevalence of airborne pollen and fungal spores in Nsukka, Enugu, South- East Nigeria and relationship to climatic variables were carried out from Jan-June, 2017. The aim of the study was to access climate change and variability over time in the area and their accrued influence on modern pollen and spores rain. Decadal change in climate was accessed from variables collected from meteorological centre in the study area. Airborne samples were collected monthly using a modified Tauber-like pollen samplers raised 5 ft above ground level. Aerosamples collected were subjected to acetolysis. Dominant pollen recorded were those of Poaceae, Elaeis guinensis Jacq. and Casuarina equisetifolia L. Change in weather brought by onset of rainfall evoked sporulation and dispersal of diverse spores into ambient air especially potent allergenic spores with the spores of Ovularia, Bispora, Curvularia, Nigrospora, Helminthosporium preponderant; these 'hydrophilic fungi' were abundant in the rainy season though in varying quantities. Total fungal spores correlated positively with monthly rainfall and humidity but negatively with temperature. There was a negative though not significant correlation between total pollen count and rainfall. The study revealed a strong influence of climatic variables on abundance and spatial distribution of pollen and fungal spores in the ambient atmosphere.

Keywords: allergy, fungal spores, pollen, weather parameters

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan, Hasan Uzun

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Flood is the event which damage to the surrounding lands, residential places, infrastructure and vibrant, because of the streams overflow events from its bed for several reasons. Flood is a natural formation which develops due to its region's climatic conditions, technical and topographical characteristics. However, factors causing floods with global warming caused by human activity are events such as uncontrolled urbanization. Floods in Turkey are natural disasters which cause huge economic losses after the earthquake. At the same time, the flood disaster is one of the most observed hydrometeorological disasters, compared to 30%, in Turkey. Every year, there are around 200 flood-flood disasters and the disaster as a result of financial losses of $ 100 million per year are reported to occur in public institutions. The amount allocated for carrying out investment-project activities for reducing and controlling of flood damage control are around US $ 30 million per year. The existence of a linear increase in the number of flood disasters is noteworthy due to various reasons in the last 50 years of observation. In this study, first of all, big events of the flood in Turkey and their reasons were examined. And then, the information about the work to be done in order to prevent flooding by government was given with examples. Meteorological early warning systems, flood risk maps and regulation of urban development studies are described for this purpose. As a result, recommendations regarding in the event of the occurrence of floods disaster management were issues raised.

Keywords: flood, disaster, disaster management, Türkiye

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Authors: Carmen Soria

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The aim of this paper is the study of the cultural and anthropological consequences of the historical natural disasters in Abruzzo (Italy, Central Apennine). These events have left cultural marks in local traditions as well as mythological stories, specific cults, or sanctuary areas in apotropaic function to prevent catastrophic events. Despite the difficult to find archaeological evidence of natural disasters, neverthless, the analisys of micro placenames, directly or indirectly related to such events, represents an integrated and interdisciplinary approach between seismology studies and landscape analysis. Toponymic data, indeed, highlight the strong relation between geomorphological features of areas affected by natural disasters and heritage community resilience, such as, for example, the cult of St. Agatha, widespread in the nearby of healing spring-water and ancient caves as a place of worship, in continuity with pagan rituals.

Keywords: abruzzo, heritage community resilience, seismic planames, St. agata

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Authors: M. Taouzari, A. Sardi, J. El Aoufi, Ahmed Mouhsen

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The purpose of this work is to design a reader antenna fed by 90° hybrid coupler that would ensure a tag which is detected regardless of its orientation for the radio frequency identification system covering the UHF and ISM bands frequencies. Based on this idea, the proposed work is dividing in two parts, first part is about study and design hybrid coupler using the resonators planar called T-and Pi networks operating in commercial bands. In the second part, the proposed antenna fed by the hybrid coupler is designed on FR4 substrate with dielectric permittivity 4.4, thickness dielectric 1.6mm and loss tangent 0.025. The T-slot is inserted in patch of the proposed antenna fed by the hybrid coupler is first designed, optimized and simulated using electromagnetic simulator ADS and then simulated in a full wave simulation software CST Microwave Studio. The simulated antenna by the both softwares achieves the expected performances in terms of matching, pattern radiation, phase shifting, gain and size.

Keywords: dual band antenna, RFID, hybrid coupler, polarization, radiation pattern

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Authors: Lyndsey Kim

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We utilized country-level data on suicide rates from 1985 through 2015 provided by the WHO to explore global trends as well as country-specific trends. First, we find that up until 1995, there was an increase in suicide rates globally, followed by a steep decline in deaths. This observation is largely driven by the data from Europe, where suicides are prominent but steadily declining. Second, men are more likely to commit suicide than women across the world over the years. Third, the older generation is more likely to commit suicide than youth and adults. Finally, we turn to Durkheim’s theory and use it as a lens to understand trends in suicide across time and countries and attempt to identify social and economic events that might explain patterns that we observe. For example, we discovered a drastically different pattern in suicide rates in the US, with a steep increase in suicides in the early 2000s. We hypothesize this might be driven by both the 9/11 attacks and the recession of 2008.

Keywords: suicide trends, current events, data analysis, world health organization, durkheim theory

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Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

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Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

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Authors: Gökhan Altay, Cafer Kayadelen

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Rock fall is a movement of huge rock blocks from dip slopes due to physical effects. It generally occurs where loose tuffs lying under basalt flow or stringcourse is being constituted by limestone layers which stand on clay. By corrosion of some parts, big cracks occur on layers and these cracks continue to grow with the effect of freezing-thawing. In this way, the breaking rocks fall down from these dip slopes. Earthquakes which can induce lots of rock movements is another reason for rock fall events. In Turkey, we have a large number of regions prone to the earthquake as in the World so this increases the possibility of rock fall events. A great number of rock fall events take place in Turkey as in the World every year. The rock fall events occurring in urban areas cause serious damages in houses, roads and workplaces. Sometimes it also hinders transportation and furthermore it maybe kills people. In Turkey, rock fall events happen mostly in Spring and Winter because of freezing- thawing of water in rock cracks frequently. In mountain and inclined areas, rock fall is risky for engineering construction and environment. Some countries can invest significant money for these risky areas. For instance, in Switzerland, approximately 6.7 million dollars is spent annually for a distance of 4 km, to the systems to prevent rock fall events. In Turkey, we have lots of urban areas and engineering structure that have the rock fall risk. The embankments are preferable for rock fall events because of its low maintenance and repair costs. Also, embankments are able to absorb much more energy according to other protection systems. The current design method of embankments is only depended on field tests results so there are inadequate studies about this design method. In this paper, the field test modeled in three dimensions and analysis are carried out with the help of ANSYS programme. By the help of field test from literature the numerical model validated. After the validity of numerical models additional parametric studies performed. Changes in deformation of embankments are investigated by the changes in, geometry, velocity and impact height of falling rocks.

Keywords: ANSYS, embankment, impact height, numerical analysis, rock fall

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Authors: Zekang Lan, Yan Xu, Yingkun Huang, Dian Huang, Shengzhong Feng

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Jobs on high-performance computing (HPC) clusters can suffer significant performance degradation due to inter-job network interference. Topology-aware job allocation problem (TJAP) is such a problem that decides how to dedicate nodes to specific applications to mitigate inter-job network interference. In this paper, we study the window-based TJAP on a fat-tree network aiming at minimizing the cost of communication hop, a defined inter-job interference metric. The window-based approach for scheduling repeats periodically, taking the jobs in the queue and solving an assignment problem that maps jobs to the available nodes. Two special allocation strategies are considered, i.e., static continuity assignment strategy (SCAS) and dynamic continuity assignment strategy (DCAS). For the SCAS, a 0-1 integer programming is developed. For the DCAS, an approach called neural simulated algorithm (NSA), which is an extension to simulated algorithm (SA) that learns a repair operator and employs them in a guided heuristic search, is proposed. The efficacy of NSA is demonstrated with a computational study against SA and SCIP. The results of numerical experiments indicate that both the model and algorithm proposed in this paper are effective.

Keywords: high-performance computing, job allocation, neural simulated annealing, topology-aware

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Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

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Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance, and within study variance and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation

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Authors: Huei-Fu Lu

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Hosting international major sports events (MSEs) has become a globalized strategy for many countries. Most modern countries believe that MSEs can bring the hosting countries with substantial and considerable economic and non-economic benefits; so many cities also input a huge of resources to bid for hosting MSEs. Despite the growing importance of MSEs, limited longitudinal analysis has been carried out to understand and explain the long term economic effects of such events. This paper is to continue the focus of previous literature on the economic effects of hosting MSEs. The study periods are from 1950 to 2014 and the secondary macro-economic data are selected from the countries that have hosted the Asian Games and the Olympic Games (including summer and winter) to precede a longitudinal analysis. A comparison of the real economic growth rate, investment, employment and international trade of hosting countries and the duration of these economic effects are also explored and discussed. Based on the countries’ attributes and locating area, aiming to ascertain whether hosting MSEs is economically worthwhile and whether the economic effects from MSEs are realized as anticipated. The results indicate that hosting MSEs to create positive economic effects like GDP growth or long-term employment may be a myth even for developing countries. However, the empirical findings can provide the sport management or authority with longitudinal and comprehensive elaboration for biding or hosting MSEs in the future.

Keywords: Asian Games, economic effects, major sports events (MSEs), olympic games

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Authors: Qurratulain Safdar

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Drought is a temporary aberration in contrast to aridity, as it is a permanent feature of climate. Virtually, it takes place in all types of climatic regions that range from high to low rainfall areas. Due to the wide latitudinal extent of Pakistan, there is seasonal and annual variability in rainfall. The south-central part of the country is arid and hyper-arid. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in arid and hyperarid region of Cholistan using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) approach. This study has assessed the extent of recurrences of drought and its temporal vulnerability to drought in Cholistan region. Initially, the paper described the geographic setup of the study area along with a brief description of the drought conditions that prevail in Pakistan. The study also provides a scientific foundation for preparing literature and theoretical framework in-line with the selected parameters and indicators. Data were collected both from primary and secondary data sources. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Pakistan Meteorology Department. By applying geostatistical approach, a standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the study region, and the value of spatio-temporal variability of drought and its severity was explored. As a result, in-depth spatial analysis of drought conditions in Cholistan area was found. Parallel to this, drought-prone areas with seasonal variation were also identified using Kriging spatial interpolation techniques in a GIS environment. The study revealed that there is temporal variation in droughts' occurrences both in time series and SPI values. The paper is finally concluded, and strategic plan was suggested to minimize the impacts of drought.

Keywords: Cholistan desert, climate anomalies, metrological droughts, standardized precipitation index

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Authors: Amir Hedjripour

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The required dewatering configuration for a contaminated sediment dam is discussed to meet no-spill criteria for a defined Average Recurrence Interval (ARI). There is an option for the sediment dam to pump the contaminated water to another storage facility before its capacity is exceeded. The system is subjected to a range of storm durations belonging to the design ARI with concurrent dewatering to the other storage facility. The model is set up in 1-minute time intervals and temporal patterns of storm events are used to de-segregate the total storm depth into partial durations. By running the model for selected storm durations, the maximum water volume in the dam is recorded as the critical volume, which indicates the required storage capacity for that storm duration. Runoff from upstream catchment and the direct rainfall over the dam open area are calculated by taking into account the time of concentration for the catchment. Total 99 different storm durations from 5 minutes to 72 hours were modelled together with five dewatering scenarios from 50 l/s to 500 l/s. The optimised dam/pump configuration is selected by plotting critical points for all cases and storage-dewatering envelopes. A simple economic analysis is also presented in the paper using Present-Value (PV) analysis to assist with the financial evaluation of each configuration and selection of the best alternative.

Keywords: contaminated water, optimisation, pump, sediment dam

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Authors: Padma Sree Potru

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Abstract: A co-relational descriptive study was conducted to assess the impact of cancer event on self, on family, coping strategies of cancer clients and quality of life among them in G.G.H., Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India. Aim: The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of cancer events on self, on family, coping of clients and quality of life among cancer patients. Methods: 50 cancer patients were selected through random sampling technique. The data were obtained by using impact of events scale, impact on family scale, coping health inventory and WHOQOL-BREF scale. Results: The results revealed that majority (32%) of them were in the age group of 36-45 years, 72% were females, 44% were having the income of Rs. 5001-10000/- per month, 40% were working for daily wage, and 15% were newly diagnosed of cancer. Among 50 cancer patients, 65% had extreme impact of events, 61% shows extreme impact on family, 46% possess minimal coping strategies and 68% had poor quality of life. This study focuses on that there is a strong positive correlation between quality of life and coping behavior r=0.603 and also between impact of event and impact on family r=0.610, but a negative correlation existed between quality of life and impact of events r= -0.201. ANOVA test reveals that there is a significant difference between subscales of impact on family and coping behavior with f values = 3.893, 3.957 respectively. Chi-square highlights that there is a significant association between impact of events with age, occupation and impact on family with duration of illness. Conclusion: Even though cancer is a dreadful disease still there are many emerging treatment modalities and innovative procedures which are focusing on improving the standards of life among cancer clients. But all this can happen only when the clients accepts the reality, increase their willpower and confidence, desire to live, focusing on coping mechanisms and good ongoing support from the family members.

Keywords: impact of event, impact on family, coping, quality of event

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Authors: Abdulkadir Magaji

Abstract:

This study analyzes and compares the actual measured and simulated performance of a 3.2 kwP grid-connected photovoltaic system. The system is located at the Outdoor Facility of Government Day secondary School Katsina State, which lies approximately between coordinate of 12°15′N 7°30′E. The system consists of 14 Mono crystalline silicon modules connected in two strings of 7 series-connected modules, each facing north at a fixed tilt of 340. The data presented in this study were measured in the year 2015, where the system supplied a total of 4628 kWh to the local electric utility grid. The performance of the system was simulated using PVsyst software using measured and Meteonorm derived climate data sets (solar radiation, ambient temperature and wind speed). The comparison between measured and simulated energy yield are discussed. Although, both simulation results were similar, better comparison between measured and predicted monthly energy yield is observed with simulation performed using measured weather data at the site. The measured performance ratio in the present study shows 58.4% is higher than those reported elsewhere as compared in the study.

Keywords: performance, evaluation, grid connection, photovoltaic system

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Authors: Dolgormaa Munkhbaatar, Munkhsaikhan Adiya, Tseedulam Khuut

Abstract:

We performed an inversion method to determine the 1D-velocity model with station corrections of the Gobi-Altai area in the southern part of Mongolia using earthquake data collected in the National Data Center during the last 10 years. In this study, the concept of the new 1D model has been employed to minimize the average RMS of a set of well-located earthquakes, recorded at permanent (between 2006 and 2016) and temporary seismic stations (between 2014 and 2016), compute solutions for the coupled hypocenter and 1D velocity model. We selected 4800 events with RMS less than 0.5 seconds and with a maximum GAP of 170 degrees and determined velocity structures. Also, we relocated all possible events located in the Gobi-Altai area using the new 1D velocity model and achieved constrained hypocentral determinations for events within this area. We concluded that the estimated new 1D velocity model is a relatively low range compared to the previous velocity model in a significant improvement intend to, and the quality of the information basis for future research center locations to determine the earthquake epicenter area with this new transmission model.

Keywords: 1D velocity model, earthquake, relocation, Velest

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: R. Rajeswari

Abstract:

An investigation was carried out to know the SOC stock and its change over time in benchmark soils of different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu. Roth.C model was used to assess SOC stock under existing and alternate cropping pattern. Soil map prepared on 1:50,000 scale from Natural Resources Information System (NRIS) employed under satellite data (IRS-1C/1D-PAN sharpened LISS-III image) was used to estimate SOC stock in different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu. Fifteen benchmark soils were selected in different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu based on their land use and the areal extent to assess SOC level and its change overtime. This revealed that, between eleven years of period (1997 - 2007). SOC buildup was higher in soils under horticulture system, followed by soils under rice cultivation. Among different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu hilly zone have the highest SOC stock, followed by north eastern, southern, western, cauvery delta, north western, and high rainfall zone. Although organic carbon content in the soils of North eastern, southern, western, North western, Cauvery delta were less than high rainfall zone, the SOC stock was high. SOC density was higher in high rainfall and hilly zone than other agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu. Among low rainfall regions of Tamil Nadu cauvery delta zone recorded higher SOC density. Roth.C model was used to assess SOC stock under existing and alternate cropping pattern in viz., Periyanaickenpalayam series (western zone), Peelamedu series (southern zone), Vallam series (north eastern zone), Vannappatti series (north western zone) and Padugai series (cauvery delta zone). Padugai series recorded higher TOC, BIO, and HUM, followed by Periyanaickenpalayam series, Peelamedu series, Vallam series, and Vannappatti series. Vannappatti and Padugai series develop high TOC, BIO, and HUM under existing cropping pattern. Periyanaickenpalayam, Peelamedu, and Vallam series develop high TOC, BIO, and HUM under alternate cropping pattern. Among five selected soil series, Periyanaickenpalayam, Peelamedu, and Padugai series recorded 0.75 per cent TOC during 2025 and 2018, 2100 and 2035, 2013 and 2014 under existing and alternate cropping pattern, respectively.

Keywords: agro climatic zones, benchmark soil, land use, soil organic carbon

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Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

Abstract:

The volume of runoff caused by rainfall in the river basin has enticed the researchers in the fields of the water management resources. In this study, first of the hydrological data such as the rainfall and discharge of the Khiyav river basin of Meshkin city in the northwest of Iran collected and then the process of analyzing and reconstructing has been completed. The soil conservation service (scs) has developed a method for calculating the runoff, in which is based on the curve number specification (CN). This research implemented the following model in the Khiyav river basin of Meshkin city by the GIS techniques and concluded the following fact in which represents the usage of weight model in calculating the curve numbers that provides the possibility for the all efficient factors which is contributing to the runoff creation such as; the geometric characteristics of the basin, the basin soil characteristics, vegetation, geology, climate and human factors to be considered, so an accurate estimation of runoff from precipitation to be achieved as the result. The findings also exposed the accident-prone areas in the output of the Khiyav river basin so it was revealed that the Khiyav river basin embodies a high potential for the flood creation.

Keywords: curve number, khiyav river basin, runoff estimation, SCS

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Authors: Laura Fernanda Pedreros Araque, Sebastian Rivera Pardo

Abstract:

The massive removal phenomena have been one of the most frequent natural disasters in the world, causing thousands of deaths, victims, damage to homes and diseases. In Pitalito, and Campoalegre department of Huila municipalities - Colombia, disasters have occurred due to various events such as high rainfall, earthquakes; it has caused landslides, floods, among others, affected the economy, the community, and transportation. For this reason, a study was carried out on the area’s most prone to suffer these phenomena to take preventive measures in favor of the protection of the population, the resources of management, and the planning of civil works. For the proposed object, the Mora-Varshon method was used, which allows classifying the degree of susceptibility to landslides in which the areas are found. Also, various factors or parameters were evaluated such as the soil moisture, lithology, slope, seismicity, and rain, each of these indicators were obtained using information from IDEAM, Servicio Geologico Colombiano (SGC) and using geographic information for geoprocessing in the Arcgis software to realize a mapping to indicate the susceptibility to landslides, classifying the areas of the municipalities such as very low, low, medium, moderate, high or very high.

Keywords: geographic information system, landslide, mass removal phenomena, Mora-Varshon method

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Sujo Meghwar, Zulfqar Ali laghari, Kanji Harijan, Muhib Ali Lagari, G. M. Mastoi, Ali Mohammad Rind

Abstract:

Thar Desert is the most populous Desert of the world. Climate variation in Thar Desert has induced an increase in the magnitude of drought. The variation in climate variation has caused a decrease in natural vegetations. Some plant species are eliminated forever. We have applied the SPI (standardized precipitation index) climate model to investigate the drought induced by climate change. We have gathered the anthropogenic response through a developed questionnaire. The data was analyzed in SPSS version 18. The met-data of two meteorological station elaborated by the time series has suggested an increase in temperature from 1-2.5 centigrade, the decrease in rain fall rainfall from 5-25% and reduction in humidity from 5-12 mm in the 20th century. The anthropogenic responses indicate high impact of climate change on human life and vegetations. Triangle data, we have collected, gives a new insight into the understanding of an association between climate change, drought and human activities.

Keywords: Thar desert, human impact, vegetations, temperature, rainfall, humidity

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Authors: Meriem Boukais, B. Dennai, A. Ould- Abbas

Abstract:

The efficiency of SiGe solar cells might be improved by a wide-band-gap window layer. In this work we were simulated using the one dimensional simulation program called analysis of microelectronic and photonic structures (AMPS-1D). In the modeling, the thickness of silicon window was varied from 80 to 150 nm. The rest of layer’s thicknesses were kept constant, by varying thickness of window layer the simulated device performance was demonstrate in the form of current-voltage (I-V) characteristics and quantum efficiency (QE).

Keywords: modeling, SiGe, AMPS-1D, quantum efficiency, conversion, efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 723