Search results for: geothermal energy production forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 14525

Search results for: geothermal energy production forecasting

14225 Redefining Solar Generation Estimation: A Comprehensive Analysis of Real Utility Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Data from Various Projects in New York

Authors: Haowei Lu, Anaya Aaron

Abstract:

Understanding historical solar generation and forecasting future solar generation from interconnected Distributed Energy Resources (DER) is crucial for utility planning and interconnection studies. The existing methodology, which relies on solar radiation, weather data, and common inverter models, is becoming less accurate. Rapid advancements in DER technologies have resulted in more diverse project sites, deviating from common patterns due to various factors such as DC/AC ratio, solar panel performance, tilt angle, and the presence of DC-coupled battery energy storage systems. In this paper, the authors review 10,000 DER projects within the system and analyze the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data for various types to demonstrate the impact of different parameters. An updated methodology is proposed for redefining historical and future solar generation in distribution feeders.

Keywords: photovoltaic system, solar energy, fluctuations, energy storage, uncertainty

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14224 Procedure Model for Data-Driven Decision Support Regarding the Integration of Renewable Energies into Industrial Energy Management

Authors: M. Graus, K. Westhoff, X. Xu

Abstract:

The climate change causes a change in all aspects of society. While the expansion of renewable energies proceeds, industry could not be convinced based on general studies about the potential of demand side management to reinforce smart grid considerations in their operational business. In this article, a procedure model for a case-specific data-driven decision support for industrial energy management based on a holistic data analytics approach is presented. The model is executed on the example of the strategic decision problem, to integrate the aspect of renewable energies into industrial energy management. This question is induced due to considerations of changing the electricity contract model from a standard rate to volatile energy prices corresponding to the energy spot market which is increasingly more affected by renewable energies. The procedure model corresponds to a data analytics process consisting on a data model, analysis, simulation and optimization step. This procedure will help to quantify the potentials of sustainable production concepts based on the data from a factory. The model is validated with data from a printer in analogy to a simple production machine. The overall goal is to establish smart grid principles for industry via the transformation from knowledge-driven to data-driven decisions within manufacturing companies.

Keywords: data analytics, green production, industrial energy management, optimization, renewable energies, simulation

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14223 Developing Offshore Energy Grids in Norway as Capability Platforms

Authors: Vidar Hepsø

Abstract:

The energy and oil companies on the Norwegian Continental shelf come from a situation where each asset control and manage their energy supply (island mode) and move towards a situation where the assets need to collaborate and coordinate energy use with others due to increased cost and scarcity of electric energy sharing the energy that is provided. Currently, several areas are electrified either with an onshore grid cable or are receiving intermittent energy from offshore wind-parks. While the onshore grid in Norway is well regulated, the offshore grid is still in the making, with several oil and gas electrification projects and offshore wind development just started. The paper will describe the shift in the mindset that comes with operating this new offshore grid. This transition process heralds an increase in collaboration across boundaries and integration of energy management across companies, businesses, technical disciplines, and engagement with stakeholders in the larger society. This transition will be described as a function of the new challenges with increased complexity of the energy mix (wind, oil/gas, hydrogen and others) coupled with increased technical and organization complexity in energy management. Organizational complexity denotes an increasing integration across boundaries, whether these boundaries are company, vendors, professional disciplines, regulatory regimes/bodies, businesses, and across numerous societal stakeholders. New practices must be developed, made legitimate and institutionalized across these boundaries. Only parts of this complexity can be mitigated technically, e.g.: by use of batteries, mixing energy systems and simulation/ forecasting tools. Many challenges must be mitigated with legitimated societal and institutionalized governance practices on many levels. Offshore electrification supports Norway’s 2030 climate targets but is also controversial since it is exploiting the larger society’s energy resources. This means that new systems and practices must also be transparent, not only for the industry and the authorities, but must also be acceptable and just for the larger society. The paper report from ongoing work in Norway, participant observation and interviews in projects and people working with offshore grid development in Norway. One case presented is the development of an offshore floating windfarm connected to two offshore installations and the second case is an offshore grid development initiative providing six installations electric energy via an onshore cable. The development of the offshore grid is analyzed using a capability platform framework, that describes the technical, competence, work process and governance capabilities that are under development in Norway. A capability platform is a ‘stack’ with the following layers: intelligent infrastructure, information and collaboration, knowledge sharing & analytics and finally business operations. The need for better collaboration and energy forecasting tools/capabilities in this stack will be given a special attention in the two use cases that are presented.

Keywords: capability platform, electrification, carbon footprint, control rooms, energy forecsting, operational model

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14222 Evaluation of Potential of Crop Residues for Energy Generation in Nepal

Authors: Narayan Prasad Adhikari

Abstract:

In Nepal, the crop residues have often been considered as one of the potential sources of energy to cope with prevailing energy crisis. However, the lack of systematic studies about production and various other competent uses of crop production is the main obstacle to evaluate net potential of the residues for energy production. Under this background, this study aims to assess the net annual availability of crop residues for energy production by undertaking three different districts with the representation of country’s three major regions of lowland, hill, and mountain. The five major cereal crops of paddy, wheat, maize, millet, and barley are considered for the analysis. The analysis is based upon two modes of household surveys. The first mode of survey is conducted to total of 240 households to obtain key information about crop harvesting and livestock management throughout a year. Similarly, the quantification of main crops along with the respective residues on fixed land is carried out to 45 households during second mode. The range of area of such fixed land is varied from 50 to 100 m2. The measurements have been done in air dry basis. The quantity for competitive uses of respective crop residues is measured on the basis of respondents’ feedback. There are four major competitive uses of crop residues at household which are building material, burning, selling, and livestock fodder. The results reveal that the net annual available crop residues per household are 4663 kg, 2513 kg, and 1731 kg in lowland, hill, and mountain respectively. Of total production of crop residues, the shares of dedicated fodder crop residues (except maize stalk and maize cob) are 94 %, 62 %, and 89 % in lowland, hill, and mountain respectively and of which the corresponding shares of fodder are 87 %, 91 %, and 82 %. The annual percapita energy equivalent from net available crop residues in lowland, hill, and mountain are 2.49 GJ, 3.42 GJ, and 0.44 GJ which represent 30 %, 33 %, and 3 % of total annual energy consumption respectively whereas the corresponding current shares of crop residues are only 23 %, 8 %, and 1 %. Hence, even utmost exploitation of available crop residues can hardly contribute to one third of energy consumption at household level in lowland, and hill whereas this is limited to particularly negligible in mountain. Moreover, further analysis has also been done to evaluate district wise supply-demand context of dedicated fodder crop residues on the basis of presence of livestock. The high deficit of fodder crop residues in hill and mountain is observed where the issue of energy generation from these residues will be ludicrous. As a contrary, the annual production of such residues for livestock fodder in lowland meets annual demand with modest surplus even if entire fodder to be derived from the residues throughout a year and thus there seems to be further potential to utilize the surplus residues for energy generation.

Keywords: crop residues, hill, lowland, mountain

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14221 The Relationship between the Epithermal Mineralization, Thermalism, and Basement Faults in the Region of Guelma: NE of Algeria

Authors: B. Merdas

Abstract:

The Guelma region constitutes a vast geothermal field whose local geothermal gradient is very high. Indeed, various thermal and thermo sources emerging in the region, including some at relatively high temperatures. In the mio Pliocene Hammam N'bails, basin emerges a hot spring that leaves develop a thick series of thermal travertine linked to it. Near the thermal emergences has settled a very special mineralization antimony and zinc and lead. The results of analyses of the thermal waters of the source of Hammam N'bails and the associated travertine, show abnormal values in Pb, Sb, Zn, As, and other metals, demonstrating the genetic link between those waters and mineralization. Hammam N'bails mineralizations by their mineral assembling represented and their association with the hot springs, are very similar to epithermal deposits with precious metals (gold and silver) like Senator mine in Turkey or ‘Carlin-type’ in Nevada (USA).

Keywords: hot springs, mineralization; basement faults, Guelma, NE Algeria

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14220 Contribution to Energy Management in Hybrid Energy Systems Based on Agents Coordination

Authors: Djamel Saba, Fatima Zohra Laallam, Brahim Berbaoui

Abstract:

This paper presents a contribution to the design of a multi-agent for the energy management system in a hybrid energy system (SEH). The multi-agent-based energy-coordination management system (MA-ECMS) is based mainly on coordination between agents. The agents share the tasks and exchange information through communications protocols to achieve the main goal. This intelligent system can fully manage the consumption and production or simply to make proposals for action he thinks is best. The initial step is to give a presentation for the system that we want to model in order to understand all the details as much as possible. In our case, it is to implement a system for simulating a process control of energy management.

Keywords: communications protocols, control process, energy management, hybrid energy system, modelization, multi-agents system, simulation

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14219 A Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and Threshold Autoregressive Models on Exchange Rate

Authors: Diteboho Xaba, Kolentino Mpeta, Tlotliso Qejoe

Abstract:

This paper assesses the in-sample forecasting of the South African exchange rates comparing a linear ARIMA model and a SETAR model. The study uses a monthly adjusted data of South African exchange rates with 420 observations. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criteria (SIC) are used for model selection. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are error metrics used to evaluate forecast capability of the models. The Diebold –Mariano (DM) test is employed in the study to check forecast accuracy in order to distinguish the forecasting performance between the two models (ARIMA and SETAR). The results indicate that both models perform well when modelling and forecasting the exchange rates, but SETAR seemed to outperform ARIMA.

Keywords: ARIMA, error metrices, model selection, SETAR

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14218 Two-Stage Anaerobic Digester for Biogas Production from Sewage Sludge: A Case Study in One of Kuwait’s Wastewater Treatment Plant

Authors: Abdullah Almatouq, Abdulla Abusam, Hussain Hussain, Mishari Khajah, Hussain Abdullah, Rashed Al-Yaseen, Mariam Al-Jumaa, Farah Al-Ajeel, Mohammad Aljassam

Abstract:

Due to the high demand for energy from unsustainable resources in Kuwait, the Kuwaiti government has focused recently on using sustainable resources for energy, such as solar and wind energy. In addition, sludge which is generated as a by-product of physical, chemical, and biological processes during wastewater treatment, can be used as a substrate to generate energy through anaerobic digestion. Kuwait’s wastewater treatment plants produce more than 1.7 million m3 of sludge per year, and this volume is accumulated in the treatment plants without any treatment. Therefore, a pilot-scale (3 m3) two-stage anaerobic digester was constructed in one of the largest treatment plants in Kuwait. The reactor was operated in batch mode, and the hydraulic retention time varied between 14 – 27 days. The main of this study is to evaluate the technical feasibility of a two-stage anaerobic digester for sludge treatability and energy generation in Kuwait. The anaerobic digester achieved a total biogas production of 37 m3, and the highest value of daily biogas production was 0.4 m3/day. The methane content ranged between 50 % and 66 %, and the other gases were as follows: CO2 20 %, H2S 13 %, and 1 % O2. The generated biogas was used on-site for cooking and lighting. In some batches, low C/N was noticed, and that lead to maintaining the concentration of CH4 between 50%-55%. In conclusion, an anaerobic digester is an environmentally friendly technology that can be applied in Kuwait, and the obtained results support the scale-up of the process in all the treatment plants.

Keywords: wastewater, metahne, biogas production potential, anaerobic digestion

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14217 Energy Trading for Cooperative Microgrids with Renewable Energy Resources

Authors: Ziaullah, Shah Wahab Ali

Abstract:

Micro-grid equipped with heterogeneous energy resources present the idea of small scale distributed energy management (DEM). DEM helps in minimizing the transmission and operation costs, power management and peak load demands. Micro-grids are collections of small, independent controllable power-generating units and renewable energy resources. Micro-grids also motivate to enable active customer participation by giving accessibility of real-time information and control to the customer. The capability of fast restoration against faulty situation, integration of renewable energy resources and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) make micro-grid as an ideal system for distributed power systems. Micro-grids can have a bank of energy storage devices. The energy management system of micro-grid can perform real-time energy forecasting of renewable resources, energy storage elements and controllable loads in making proper short-term scheduling to minimize total operating costs. We present a review of existing micro-grids optimization objectives/goals, constraints, solution approaches and tools used in micro-grids for energy management. Cost-benefit analysis of micro-grid reveals that cooperation among different micro-grids can play a vital role in the reduction of import energy cost and system stability. Cooperative micro-grids energy trading is an approach to electrical distribution energy resources that allows local energy demands more control over the optimization of power resources and uses. Cooperation among different micro-grids brings the interconnectivity and power trading issues. According to the literature, it shows that open area of research is available for cooperative micro-grids energy trading. In this paper, we proposed and formulated the efficient energy management/trading module for interconnected micro-grids. It is believed that this research will open new directions in future for energy trading in cooperative micro-grids/interconnected micro-grids.

Keywords: distributed energy management, information and communication technologies, microgrid, energy management

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14216 Co-Pyrolysis Characteristics of Waste Polyolefins

Authors: Si̇nem Uğuz, Yuksel Ardali

Abstract:

Nowadays rapid population growth causes a mandatory increase in consumption. As a result of production activities which meet this consumption, energy sources decrease rapidly on our world. As well as with this production activities various waste occurs. At the end of the production and accumulation of this waste need a mandatory disposal. In this context, copyrolysis of waste polyolefins were investigated. In this study for pyrolysis process, polyethylene and polyprophylene are selected as polyolefins. The pyrolysis behavior (efficiency of solid, liquid and gas production) of selected materials were examined at the different temperatures and different mixtures. Pyrolysis process was carried out at 550 °C and 600 °C without air in a fixed bed pyrolysis oven solid under the nitrogen flow to provide inertness of medium. Elemental analyses (C, H, O, N, S) of this solid and liquid (bitumen) products were made and the calorific value was calculated. The availability of liquid product as a fuel was investigated. In addition different products’ amounts formed like solid, liquid and gas at different temperatures were evaluated.

Keywords: alternative energy, elemental analysis, pyrolysis, waste reduction

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14215 Fast Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting under High Meteorological Variability with a Multiple Equation Time Series Approach

Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

Abstract:

In 2016, Clements, Hurn, and Li proposed a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting, reporting an average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.36% on an 11-years dataset for the Queensland region in Australia. We present an adaptation of their model to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province in Canada. More precisely, we take into account two additional meteorological variables — cloudiness and wind speed — on top of temperature, as well as the use of multiple meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. We also consider other minor improvements. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1:79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering

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14214 Improvement of Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Gem-Hydro Streamflow Forecasting System

Authors: Etienne Gaborit, Dorothy Durnford, Daniel Deacu, Marco Carrera, Nathalie Gauthier, Camille Garnaud, Vincent Fortin

Abstract:

A new experimental streamflow forecasting system was recently implemented at the Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP). It relies on CaLDAS (Canadian Land Data Assimilation System) for the assimilation of surface variables, and on a surface prediction system that feeds a routing component. The surface energy and water budgets are simulated with the SVS (Soil, Vegetation, and Snow) Land-Surface Scheme (LSS) at 2.5-km grid spacing over Canada. The routing component is based on the Watroute routing scheme at 1-km grid spacing for the Great Lakes and Nelson River watersheds. The system is run in two distinct phases: an analysis part and a forecast part. During the analysis part, CaLDAS outputs are used to force the routing system, which performs streamflow assimilation. In forecast mode, the surface component is forced with the Canadian GEM atmospheric forecasts and is initialized with a CaLDAS analysis. Streamflow performances of this new system are presented over 2019. Performances are compared to the current ECCC’s operational streamflow forecasting system, which is different from the new experimental system in many aspects. These new streamflow forecasts are also compared to persistence. Overall, the new streamflow forecasting system presents promising results, highlighting the need for an elaborated assimilation phase before performing the forecasts. However, the system is still experimental and is continuously being improved. Some major recent improvements are presented here and include, for example, the assimilation of snow cover data from remote sensing, a backward propagation of assimilated flow observations, a new numerical scheme for the routing component, and a new reservoir model.

Keywords: assimilation system, distributed physical model, offline hydro-meteorological chain, short-term streamflow forecasts

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14213 Valorization of Residues from Forest Industry for the Generation of Energy

Authors: M. A. Amezcua-Allieri, E. Torres, J. A. Zermeño Eguía-Lis, M. Magdaleno, L. A. Melgarejo, E. Palmerín, A. Rosas, D. López, J. Aburto

Abstract:

The use of biomass to produce renewable energy is one of the forms that can be used to reduce the impact of energy production. Like any other energy resource, there are limitations for biomass use, and it must compete not only with fossil fuels but also with other renewable energy sources such as solar or wind energy. Combustion is currently the most efficient and widely used waste-to-energy process, in the areas where direct use of biomass is possible, without the need to make large transfers of raw material. Many industrial facilities can use agricultural or forestry waste, straw, chips, bagasse, etc. in their thermal systems without making major transformations or adjustments in the feeding to the ovens, making this waste an attractive and cost-effective option in terms of availability, access, and costs. In spite of the facilities and benefits, the environmental reasons (emission of gases and particulate material) are decisive for its use for energy purpose. This paper describes a valorization of residues from forest industry to generate energy, using a case study.

Keywords: bioenergy, forest waste, life-cycle assessment, waste-to-energy, electricity

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14212 A Range of Steel Production in Japan towards 2050

Authors: Reina Kawase

Abstract:

Japan set the goal of 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. To consider countermeasures for reducing GHG emission, the production estimation of energy intensive materials, such as steel, is essential. About 50% of steel production is exported in Japan, so it is necessary to consider steel production including export. Steel productions from 2005-2050 in Japan were estimated under various global assumptions based on combination of scenarios such as goods trade scenarios and steel making process selection scenarios. Process selection scenarios decide volume of steel production by process (basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace) with considering steel consumption projection, supply-demand balance of steel, and scrap surplus. The range of steel production by process was analyzed. Maximum steel production was estimated under the scenario which consumes scrap in domestic steel production at maximum level. In 2035, steel production reaches 149 million ton because of increase in electric arc furnace steel. However, it decreases towards 2050 and amounts to 120 million ton, which is almost same as a current level. Minimum steel production is under the scenario which assumes technology progress in steel making and supply-demand balance consideration in each region. Steel production decreases from base year and is 44 million ton in 2050.

Keywords: goods trade scenario, steel making process selection scenario, steel production, global warming

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14211 Combining ASTER Thermal Data and Spatial-Based Insolation Model for Identification of Geothermal Active Areas

Authors: Khalid Hussein, Waleed Abdalati, Pakorn Petchprayoon, Khaula Alkaabi

Abstract:

In this study, we integrated ASTER thermal data with an area-based spatial insolation model to identify and delineate geothermally active areas in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Two pairs of L1B ASTER day- and nighttime scenes were used to calculate land surface temperature. We employed the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm which separates temperature from emissivity to calculate surface temperature. We calculated the incoming solar radiation for the area covered by each of the four ASTER scenes using an insolation model and used this information to compute temperature due to solar radiation. We then identified the statistical thermal anomalies using land surface temperature and the residuals calculated from modeled temperatures and ASTER-derived surface temperatures. Areas that had temperatures or temperature residuals greater than 2σ and between 1σ and 2σ were considered ASTER-modeled thermal anomalies. The areas identified as thermal anomalies were in strong agreement with the thermal areas obtained from the YNP GIS database. Also the YNP hot springs and geysers were located within areas identified as anomalous thermal areas. The consistency between our results and known geothermally active areas indicate that thermal remote sensing data, integrated with a spatial-based insolation model, provides an effective means for identifying and locating areas of geothermal activities over large areas and rough terrain.

Keywords: thermal remote sensing, insolation model, land surface temperature, geothermal anomalies

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14210 Comparison of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of System Marginal Price of Greek Energy Market

Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price

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14209 Perceived Environmental Effects of Charcoal Production among Rural Dwellers in Rainforest and Guinea Savannah Agro-Ecological Zones of Nigeria

Authors: P. O. Eniola, S. O. Odebode

Abstract:

Charcoal production constitutes serious environmental problems to most developing countries of the world. Hence, the study assessed perceived environmental effects of charcoal production (CP) among the rural dwellers in rainforest and guinea savannah (GS) zones of Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling procedure was used to select 83 and 85 charcoal producers in GS and rainforest zones respectively. Eighteen statements on perceived environmental effects of charcoal production were collected. Data was collected through the use of structured interview schedule and analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Descriptive analysis showed that the mean age was 43 years, 90.5% males, 90.6% married and 35.3% of respondents had no formal education. The majority (80.0%) of the respondents make use of earth mound method of CP and 52.9% of respondents produced between 32-32000kg of charcoal per annum. Respondents (62.7%) perceived that charcoal production could lead to erosion, 62.4% reduce the available trees for future use (62.4%) and reduce available air in the environment (54.1%). A significant difference existed in the perceived environmental effects of charcoal production between rainforest and guinea savannah agro-ecological zones (F=14.62). There is a need for the government to quickly work on other available and affordable alternative household energy sources.

Keywords: deforestation, energy, earth mound method, environment

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14208 Energy Efficient Retrofitting and Optimization of Dual Mixed Refrigerant Natural Gas Liquefaction Process

Authors: Muhammad Abdul Qyyum, Kinza Qadeer, Moonyong Lee

Abstract:

Globally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) has drawn interest as a green energy source in comparison with other fossil fuels, mainly because of its ease of transport and low carbon dioxide emissions. It is expected that demand for LNG will grow steadily over the next few decades. In addition, because the demand for clean energy is increasing, LNG production facilities are expanding into new natural gas reserves across the globe. However, LNG production is an energy and cost intensive process because of the huge power requirements for compression and refrigeration. Therefore, one of the major challenges in the LNG industry is to improve the energy efficiency of existing LNG processes through economic and ecological strategies. The advancement in expansion devices such as two-phase cryogenic expander (TPE) and cryogenic hydraulic turbine (HT) were exploited for energy and cost benefits in natural gas liquefaction. Retrofitting the conventional Joule–Thompson (JT) valve with TPE and HT have the potential to improve the energy efficiency of LNG processes. This research investigated the potential feasibility of the retrofitting of a dual mixed refrigerant (DMR) process by replacing the isenthalpic expansion with isentropic expansion corresponding to energy efficient LNG production. To fully take the potential benefit of the proposed process retrofitting, the proposed DMR schemes were optimized by using a Coggins optimization approach, which was implemented in Microsoft Visual Studio (MVS) environment and linked to the rigorous HYSYS® model. The results showed that the required energy of the proposed isentropic expansion based DMR process could be saved up to 26.5% in comparison with the conventional isenthalpic based DMR process using the JT valves. Utilization of the recovered energy into boosting the natural gas feed pressure could further improve the energy efficiency of the LNG process up to 34% as compared to the base case. This work will help the process engineers to overcome the challenges relating to energy efficiency and safety concerns of LNG processes. Furthermore, the proposed retrofitting scheme can also be implemented to improve the energy efficiency of other isenthalpic expansion based energy intensive cryogenic processes.

Keywords: cryogenic liquid turbine, Coggins optimization, dual mixed refrigerant, energy efficient LNG process, two-phase expander

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14207 Forecasting Models for Steel Demand Uncertainty Using Bayesian Methods

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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14206 Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Forecasting Monthly Flows in Waterval River, South Africa

Authors: Kassahun Birhanu Tadesse, Megersa Olumana Dinka

Abstract:

Reliable future river flow information is basic for planning and management of any river systems. For data scarce river system having only a river flow records like the Waterval River, a univariate time series models are appropriate for river flow forecasting. In this study, a univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied for forecasting Waterval River flow using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly river flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modeling. Different unit root tests and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were performed to test the stationarity of the observed flow time series. The time series was differenced to remove the seasonality. Using the correlogram of seasonally differenced time series, different SARIMA models were identified, their parameters were estimated, and diagnostic check-up of model forecasts was performed using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AIc) and Hannan-Quinn (HQc) criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2) x (3, 1, 3)12 was selected as the best model for Waterval River flow forecasting. Therefore, this model can be used to generate future river information for water resources development and management in Waterval River system. SARIMA model can also be used for forecasting other similar univariate time series with seasonality characteristics.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity, stationarity test, trend analysis, validation, white noise

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14205 IOT Based Automated Production and Control System for Clean Water Filtration Through Solar Energy Operated by Submersible Water Pump

Authors: Musse Mohamud Ahmed, Tina Linda Achilles, Mohammad Kamrul Hasan

Abstract:

Deterioration of the mother nature is evident these day with clear danger of human catastrophe emanating from greenhouses (GHG) with increasing CO2 emissions to the environment. PV technology can help to reduce the dependency on fossil fuel, decreasing air pollution and slowing down the rate of global warming. The objective of this paper is to propose, develop and design the production of clean water supply to rural communities using an appropriate technology such as Internet of Things (IOT) that does not create any CO2 emissions. Additionally, maximization of solar energy power output and reciprocally minimizing the natural characteristics of solar sources intermittences during less presence of the sun itself is another goal to achieve in this work. The paper presents the development of critical automated control system for solar energy power output optimization using several new techniques. water pumping system is developed to supply clean water with the application of IOT-renewable energy. This system is effective to provide clean water supply to remote and off-grid areas using Photovoltaics (PV) technology that collects energy generated from the sunlight. The focus of this work is to design and develop a submersible solar water pumping system that applies an IOT implementation. Thus, this system has been executed and programmed using Arduino Software (IDE), proteus, Maltab and C++ programming language. The mechanism of this system is that it pumps water from water reservoir that is powered up by solar energy and clean water production was also incorporated using filtration system through the submersible solar water pumping system. The filtering system is an additional application platform which is intended to provide a clean water supply to any households in Sarawak State, Malaysia.

Keywords: IOT, automated production and control system, water filtration, automated submersible water pump, solar energy

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14204 Large Eddy Simulation with Energy-Conserving Schemes: Understanding Wind Farm Aerodynamics

Authors: Dhruv Mehta, Alexander van Zuijlen, Hester Bijl

Abstract:

Large Eddy Simulation (LES) numerically resolves the large energy-containing eddies of a turbulent flow, while modelling the small dissipative eddies. On a wind farm, these large scales carry the energy wind turbines extracts and are also responsible for transporting the turbines’ wakes, which may interact with downstream turbines and certainly with the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In this situation, it is important to conserve the energy that these wake’s carry and which could be altered artificially through numerical dissipation brought about by the schemes used for the spatial discretisation and temporal integration. Numerical dissipation has been reported to cause the premature recovery of turbine wakes, leading to an over prediction in the power produced by wind farms.An energy-conserving scheme is free from numerical dissipation and ensures that the energy of the wakes is increased or decreased only by the action of molecular viscosity or the action of wind turbines (body forces). The aim is to create an LES package with energy-conserving schemes to simulate wind turbine wakes correctly to gain insight into power-production, wake meandering etc. Such knowledge will be useful in designing more efficient wind farms with minimal wake interaction, which if unchecked could lead to major losses in energy production per unit area of the wind farm. For their research, the authors intend to use the Energy-Conserving Navier-Stokes code developed by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands.

Keywords: energy-conserving schemes, modelling turbulence, Large Eddy Simulation, atmospheric boundary layer

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14203 Energy Initiatives for Turkey

Authors: A.Beril Tugrul, Selahattin Cimen

Abstract:

Dependency of humanity on the energy is ever-increasing today and the energy policies are reaching undeniable and un-ignorable dimensions steering the political events as well. Therefore, energy has the highest priority for Turkey like any other country. In this study, the energy supply security for Turkey evaluated according to the strategic criteria of energy policy. Under these circumstances, different alternatives are described and assessed with in terms of the energy expansion of Turkey. With this study, different opportunities in the energy expansion of Turkey is clarified and emphasized.

Keywords: energy policy, energy strategy, future projection, Turkey

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14202 An Integrated Power Generation System Design Developed between Solar Energy-Assisted Dual Absorption Cycles

Authors: Asli Tiktas, Huseyin Gunerhan, Arif Hepbasli

Abstract:

Solar energy, with its abundant and clean features, is one of the prominent renewable energy sources in multigeneration energy systems where various outputs, especially power generation, are produced together. In the literature, concentrated solar energy systems, which are an expensive technology, are mostly used in solar power plants where medium-high capacity production outputs are achieved. In addition, although different methods have been developed and proposed for solar energy-supported integrated power generation systems by different investigators, absorption technology, which is one of the key points of the present study, has been used extensively in cooling systems in these studies. Unlike these common uses mentioned in the literature, this study designs a system in which a flat plate solar collector (FPSC), Rankine cycle, absorption heat transformer (AHT), and cooling systems (ACS) are integrated. The system proposed within the scope of this study aims to produce medium-high-capacity electricity, heating, and cooling outputs using a technique different from the literature, with lower production costs than existing systems. With the proposed integrated system design, the average production costs based on electricity, heating, and cooling load production for similar scale systems are 5-10% of the average production costs of 0.685 USD/kWh, 0.247 USD/kWh, and 0.342 USD/kWh. In the proposed integrated system design, this will be achieved by increasing the outlet temperature of the AHT and FPSC system first, expanding the high-temperature steam coming out of the absorber of the AHT system in the turbine up to the condenser temperature of the ACS system, and next directly integrating it into the evaporator of this system and then completing the AHT cycle. Through this proposed system, heating and cooling will be carried out by completing the AHT and ACS cycles, respectively, while power generation will be provided because of the expansion of the turbine. Using only a single generator in the production of these three outputs together, the costs of additional boilers and the need for a heat source are also saved. In order to demonstrate that the system proposed in this study offers a more optimum solution, the techno-economic parameters obtained based on energy, exergy, economic, and environmental analysis were compared with the parameters of similar scale systems in the literature. The design parameters of the proposed system were determined through a parametric optimization study to exceed the maximum efficiency and effectiveness and reduce the production cost rate values of the compared systems.

Keywords: solar energy, absorption technology, Rankine cycle, multigeneration energy system

Procedia PDF Downloads 38
14201 An Integration of Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization to Forecast Transport Energy Demand

Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

Abstract:

Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 357
14200 DG Allocation to Reduce Production Cost by Reducing Losses in Radial Distribution Systems Using Fuzzy

Authors: G. V. Siva Krishna Rao, B. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

Electrical energy is vital in every aspect of day-to-day life. Keen interest is taken on all possible sources of energy from which it can be generated and this led to the encouragement of generating electrical power using renewable energy resources such as solar, tidal waves and wind energy. Due to the increasing interest on renewable sources in recent times, the studies on integration of distributed generation to the power grid have rapidly increased. Distributed Generation (DG) is a promising solution to many power system problems such as voltage regulation, power loss and reduction in operational cost, etc. To reduce production cost, it is important to minimize the losses by determining the location and size of local generators to be placed in the radial distribution systems. In this paper, reduction of production cost by optimal size of DG unit operated at optimal power factor is dealt. The optimal size of the DG unit is calculated analytically using approximate reasoning suitable nodes and DG placement to minimize production cost with minimum loss is determined by fuzzy technique. Total Cost of Power generation is compared with and without DG unit for 1 year duration. The suggested method is programmed under MATLAB software and is tested on IEEE 33 bus system and the results are presented.

Keywords: distributed generation, operational cost, exact loss formula, optimum size, optimum location

Procedia PDF Downloads 469
14199 Design of a Solar Water Heating System with Thermal Storage for a Three-Bedroom House in Newfoundland

Authors: Ahmed Aisa, Tariq Iqbal

Abstract:

This letter talks about the ready-to-use design of a solar water heating system because, in Canada, the average consumption of hot water per person is approximately 50 to 75 L per day and the average Canadian household uses 225 L. Therefore, this paper will demonstrate the method of designing a solar water heating system with thermal storage. It highlights the renewable hybrid power system, allowing you to obtain a reliable, independent system with the optimization of the ingredient size and at an improved capital cost. The system can provide hot water for a big building. The main power for the system comes from solar panels. Solar Advisory Model (SAM) and HOMER are used. HOMER and SAM are design models that calculate the consumption of hot water and cost for a house. Some results, obtained through simulation, were for monthly energy production, annual energy production, after tax cash flow, the lifetime of the system and monthly energy usage represented by three types of energy. These are system energy, electricity load electricity and net metering credit.

Keywords: water heating, thermal storage, capital cost solar, consumption

Procedia PDF Downloads 415
14198 An Evaluation of a Prototype System for Harvesting Energy from Pressurized Pipeline Networks

Authors: Nicholas Aerne, John P. Parmigiani

Abstract:

There is an increasing desire for renewable and sustainable energy sources to replace fossil fuels. This desire is the result of several factors. First, is the role of fossil fuels in climate change. Scientific data clearly shows that global warming is occurring. It has also been concluded that it is highly likely human activity; specifically, the combustion of fossil fuels, is a major cause of this warming. Second, despite the current surplus of petroleum, fossil fuels are a finite resource and will eventually become scarce and alternatives, such as clean or renewable energy will be needed. Third, operations to obtain fossil fuels such as fracking, off-shore oil drilling, and strip mining are expensive and harmful to the environment. Given these environmental impacts, there is a need to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy sources as a primary energy source. Various sources of renewable energy exist. Many familiar sources obtain renewable energy from the sun and natural environments of the earth. Common examples include solar, hydropower, geothermal heat, ocean waves and tides, and wind energy. Often obtaining significant energy from these sources requires physically-large, sophisticated, and expensive equipment (e.g., wind turbines, dams, solar panels, etc.). Other sources of renewable energy are from the man-made environment. An example is municipal water distribution systems. The movement of water through the pipelines of these systems typically requires the reduction of hydraulic pressure through the use of pressure reducing valves. These valves are needed to reduce upstream supply-line pressures to levels suitable downstream users. The energy associated with this reduction of pressure is significant but is currently not harvested and is simply lost. While the integrity of municipal water supplies is of paramount importance, one can certainly envision means by which this lost energy source could be safely accessed. This paper provides a technical description and analysis of one such means by the technology company InPipe Energy to generate hydroelectricity by harvesting energy from municipal water distribution pressure reducing valve stations. Specifically, InPipe Energy proposes to install hydropower turbines in parallel with existing pressure reducing valves in municipal water distribution systems. InPipe Energy in partnership with Oregon State University has evaluated this approach and built a prototype system at the O. H. Hinsdale Wave Research Lab. The Oregon State University evaluation showed that the prototype system rapidly and safely initiates, maintains, and ceases power production as directed. The outgoing water pressure remained constant at the specified set point throughout all testing. The system replicates the functionality of the pressure reducing valve and ensures accurate control of down-stream pressure. At a typical water-distribution-system pressure drop of 60 psi the prototype, operating at an efficiency 64%, produced approximately 5 kW of electricity. Based on the results of this study, this proposed method appears to offer a viable means of producing significant amounts of clean renewable energy from existing pressure reducing valves.

Keywords: pressure reducing valve, renewable energy, sustainable energy, water supply

Procedia PDF Downloads 184
14197 Advancing Hydrogen Production Through Additive Manufacturing: Optimising Structures of High Performance Electrodes

Authors: Fama Jallow, Melody Neaves, Professor Mcgregor

Abstract:

The quest for sustainable energy sources has driven significant interest in hydrogen production as a clean and efficient fuel. Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) has emerged as a prominent method for generating hydrogen, necessitating the development of advanced electrode designs with improved performance characteristics. Additive manufacturing (AM) by laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) method presents an opportunity to tailor electrode microstructures and properties, enhancing their performance. This research proposes investigating the AM of electrodes with different lattice structures to optimize hydrogen production. The primary objective is to employ advanced modeling techniques to identify and select two optimal lattice structures for electrode fabrication. LPBF will be used to fabricate electrodes with precise control over lattice geometry, pore size, and distribution. The performance evaluation will encompass energy consumption and porosity analysis. AWE will assess energy efficiency, aiming to identify lattice structures with enhanced hydrogen production rates and reduced power requirements. Computed tomography (CT) scanning will analyze porosity to determine material integrity and mass transport characteristics. The research aims to bridge the gap between AM and hydrogen production by investigating lattice structures potential in electrode design. By systematically exploring lattice structures and their impact on performance, this study aims to provide valuable insights into the design and fabrication of highly efficient and cost-effective electrodes for AWE. The outcomes hold promise for advancing hydrogen production through AM. The research will have a significant impact on the development of sustainable energy sources. The findings from this study will help to improve the efficiency of AWE, making it a more viable option for hydrogen production. This could lead to a reduction in our reliance on fossil fuels, which would have a positive impact on the environment. The research is also likely to have a commercial impact. The findings could be used to develop new electrode designs that are more efficient and cost-effective. This could lead to the development of new hydrogen production technologies, which could have a significant impact on the energy market.

Keywords: hydrogen production, electrode, lattice structure, Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 53
14196 WEMax: Virtual Manned Assembly Line Generation

Authors: Won Kyung Ham, Kang Hoon Cho, Sang C. Park

Abstract:

Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.

Keywords: performance forecasting, simulation, virtual manned assembly line, WEMax

Procedia PDF Downloads 315