Search results for: deep feed forward neural network
5607 Food Poisoning (Salmonellosis) as a Public Health Problem Through Consuming the Meat and Eggs of the Carrier Birds
Authors: M.Younus, M. Athar Khan, Asif Adrees
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The present research endeavour was made to investigate the Public Health impact of Salmonellosis through consuming the meat and eggs of the carrier’s birds and to see the prevalence of Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium from poultry feed, poultry meat, and poultry eggs and their role in the chain of transmission of salmonellae to human beings and causing food poisoning. The ultimate objective was to generate data to improve the quality of poultry products and human health awareness. Salmonellosis is one of the most wide spread food borne zoonoses in all the continents of the world. The etiological agents Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium not only produce the disease but during the convalescent phase (after the recovery of disease) remain carriers for indefinite period of time. The carrier state was not only the source of spread of disease with in the poultry but also caused typhoid fever in humans. The chain of transmission started from poultry feed to poultry meat and ultimately to humans as dead end hosts. In this experiment a total number of 200 samples of human stool and blood were collected randomly (100 samples of human stool and 100 samples of human blood) of 100 patients suspected from food poisoning patients from different hospitals of Lahore area for the identification of Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium through PCR method in order to see the public health impact of Salmonellosis through consuming the meat and eggs of the carrier birds. On the average 14 and 10 stool samples were found positive against Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium from each of the 25 patients from each hospital respectively in case of suspected food poisoning patients. Similarly on an average 5% and 6% blood samples were found positive from 25 patients of each hospital respectively. There was a significant difference (P< 0.05) in the sero positivity of stool and blood samples of suspected food poisoning patients as far as Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium was concerned. However there was no significant difference (P<0.05) between the hospitals.Keywords: salmonella, zoonosis, food, transmission, eggs
Procedia PDF Downloads 6655606 Strategic Planning in South African Higher Education
Authors: Noxolo Mafu
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This study presents an overview of strategic planning in South African higher education institutions by tracing its trends and mystique in order to identify its impact. Over the democratic decades, strategic planning has become integral to institutional survival. It has been used as a potent tool by several institutions to catch up and surpass counterparts. While planning has always been part of higher education, strategic planning should be considered different. Strategic planning is primarily about development and maintenance of a strategic fitting between an institution and its dynamic opportunities. This presupposes existence of sets of stages that institutions pursue of which, can be regarded for assessment of the impact of strategic planning in an institution. The network theory serves guides the study in demystifying apparent organisational networks in strategic planning processes.Keywords: network theory, strategy, planning, strategic planning, assessment, impact
Procedia PDF Downloads 5625605 Decarbonising Urban Building Heating: A Case Study on the Benefits and Challenges of Fifth-Generation District Heating Networks
Authors: Mazarine Roquet, Pierre Dewallef
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The building sector, both residential and tertiary, accounts for a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions. In Belgium, partly due to poor insulation of the building stock, but certainly because of the massive use of fossil fuels for heating buildings, this share reaches almost 30%. To reduce carbon emissions from urban building heating, district heating networks emerge as a promising solution as they offer various assets such as improving the load factor, integrating combined heat and power systems, and enabling energy source diversification, including renewable sources and waste heat recovery. However, mainly for sake of simple operation, most existing district heating networks still operate at high or medium temperatures ranging between 120°C and 60°C (the socalled second and third-generations district heating networks). Although these district heating networks offer energy savings in comparison with individual boilers, such temperature levels generally require the use of fossil fuels (mainly natural gas) with combined heat and power. The fourth-generation district heating networks improve the transport and energy conversion efficiency by decreasing the operating temperature between 50°C and 30°C. Yet, to decarbonise the building heating one must increase the waste heat recovery and use mainly wind, solar or geothermal sources for the remaining heat supply. Fifth-generation networks operating between 35°C and 15°C offer the possibility to decrease even more the transport losses, to increase the share of waste heat recovery and to use electricity from renewable resources through the use of heat pumps to generate low temperature heat. The main objective of this contribution is to exhibit on a real-life test case the benefits of replacing an existing third-generation network by a fifth-generation one and to decarbonise the heat supply of the building stock. The second objective of the study is to highlight the difficulties resulting from the use of a fifth-generation, low-temperature, district heating network. To do so, a simulation model of the district heating network including its regulation is implemented in the modelling language Modelica. This model is applied to the test case of the heating network on the University of Liège's Sart Tilman campus, consisting of around sixty buildings. This model is validated with monitoring data and then adapted for low-temperature networks. A comparison of primary energy consumptions as well as CO2 emissions is done between the two cases to underline the benefits in term of energy independency and GHG emissions. To highlight the complexity of operating a lowtemperature network, the difficulty of adapting the mass flow rate to the heat demand is considered. This shows the difficult balance between the thermal comfort and the electrical consumption of the circulation pumps. Several control strategies are considered and compared to the global energy savings. The developed model can be used to assess the potential for energy and CO2 emissions savings retrofitting an existing network or when designing a new one.Keywords: building simulation, fifth-generation district heating network, low-temperature district heating network, urban building heating
Procedia PDF Downloads 835604 The Effects of Street Network Layout on Walking to School
Authors: Ayse Ozbil, Gorsev Argin, Demet Yesiltepe
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Data for this cross-sectional study were drawn from questionnaires conducted in 10 elementary schools (1000 students, ages 12-14) located in Istanbul, Turkey. School environments (1600 meter buffers around the school) were evaluated through GIS-based land-use data (parcel level land use density) and street-level topography. Street networks within the same buffers were evaluated by using angular segment analysis (Integration and Choice) implemented in Depthmap as well as two segment-based connectivity measures, namely Metric and Directional Reach implemented in GIS. Segment Angular Integration measures how accessible each space from all the others within the radius using the least angle measure of distance. Segment Angular Choice which measures how many times a space is selected on journeys between all pairs of origins and destinations. Metric Reach captures the density of streets and street connections accessible from each individual road segment. Directional Reach measures the extent to which the entire street network is accessible with few direction changes. In addition, socio-economic characteristics (annual income, car ownership, education-level) of parents, obtained from parental questionnaires, were also included in the analysis. It is shown that surrounding street network configuration is strongly associated with both walk-mode shares and average walking distances to/from schools when controlling for parental socio-demographic attributes as well as land-use compositions and topographic features in school environments. More specifically, findings suggest that the scale at which urban form has an impact on pedestrian travel is considerably larger than a few blocks around the school.Keywords: Istanbul, street network layout, urban form, walking to/from school
Procedia PDF Downloads 4085603 Impact of Climate Change on Sea Level Rise along the Coastline of Mumbai City, India
Authors: Chakraborty Sudipta, A. R. Kambekar, Sarma Arnab
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Sea-level rise being one of the most important impacts of anthropogenic induced climate change resulting from global warming and melting of icebergs at Arctic and Antarctic, the investigations done by various researchers both on Indian Coast and elsewhere during the last decade has been reviewed in this paper. The paper aims to ascertain the propensity of consistency of different suggested methods to predict the near-accurate future sea level rise along the coast of Mumbai. Case studies at East Coast, Southern Tip and West and South West coast of India have been reviewed. Coastal Vulnerability Index of several important international places has been compared, which matched with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts. The application of Geographic Information System mapping, use of remote sensing technology, both Multi Spectral Scanner and Thematic Mapping data from Landsat classified through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique for arriving at high, moderate and low Coastal Vulnerability Index at various important coastal cities have been observed. Instead of data driven, hindcast based forecast for Significant Wave Height, additional impact of sea level rise has been suggested. Efficacy and limitations of numerical methods vis-à-vis Artificial Neural Network has been assessed, importance of Root Mean Square error on numerical results is mentioned. Comparing between various computerized methods on forecast results obtained from MIKE 21 has been opined to be more reliable than Delft 3D model.Keywords: climate change, Coastal Vulnerability Index, global warming, sea level rise
Procedia PDF Downloads 1325602 Legume Grain as Alternative to Soya Bean Meal in Small Ruminant Diets
Authors: Abidi Sourour, Ben Salem Hichem, Zoghlemi Aziza, Mezni Mejid, Nasri Saida
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In Tunisia, there is an urgent need to maintain food security by reversing soil degradation and improving crop and livestock productivity. Conservation Agriculture (CA) can be helpful in enhancing crop productivity and soil health. However, the demand for crop residues as animal feed are among the major constraints for the adoption of CA. Thus, the objective of this trial is to test the nutritional value of new forage mixture hays as alternative to cereal residues. Two tri-specific cereal-legume mixture were studied and compared to the classic Vetch-Oat one. They were implemented at farm level in four regions characterized by sub-humi climatic: V70-A15-T15 (Vetch70% - Oat15% -Triticale15%) installed in two sites (Zhir and safasaf), V60-A7-T33 (Vetch60% - Oat7% -Triticale33%) and V70-A30 (Vetch70%-Oat30%). Results revealed a significant variation between mixtures V70-A15-T15 installed at Safsafa, recorded the highest forage yield with 12t DM ha-1 than V60A7T33 and V70A30 installed, respectively in ksar cheikh and Fernana with 11.6 and 11.2.tMSha-1. The same mixture installed in Safsafa gave 22% less yields than the one installed in Safsafa. In fact, the month of March was dry in Z'hir. Moreover, these yields in DM can be comparable to those observed by Yucel and Avci (2009). The CP contents of the samples studied vary significantly between the mixtures (P<0.0003). V70-A15-T15 installed in Safsaf and V70A30 present higher contents of CP (respectively 14.4 and 13.7% DM) compared to the other mixtures. These contents are explained by the high proportion of vetch in the fourth mixture and by the low proportion of weeds in the second. In all cases, the hay produced from these mixtures is significantly richer in protein than that of oats in pure culture (Abdelraheem et al., 2019). The positive correlation between the CP content and the proportion of vetch explains this superior quality. The NDF and ADF contents were similar for all mixtures. These values were similar to those reported in the literature (Abidi and Benyoussef, 2019; Haj-Ayed and al., 2000). In general, the Land Equivalent Ratio (LER) was significantly greater than 1 for the vetch-oat-triticale mixture at Zhiir and Safsafa and also for the vetch-oat a at Fernana, proving that they are more productive in intercropping than in pure culture. For the Ksar Cheikh site, the LER value of the vetch-oat-triticale mixture is maintained at around 1. Proving the absence of the advantage of mixture culture compared to pure culture. This proves the massive presence of weeds interferes with the two partners of the mixture increases. The LER for the vetch-oat mixture reached its maximum in March 13 and decreases in April but remained above 1. This proves that the tutoring power of oats showed itself in a constant way until an advanced stage since the variety used is characterized by very thick stems, protecting it from the risk of lodging. These forages mixture present a promising option, a high nutritional quality that could reduce the use of concentrate and, therefore, the cost of feed. With such feed value, these mixtures allow good animal performance.Keywords: soybean, lupine, vetch, lamb-ADG, meat
Procedia PDF Downloads 905601 Enhancing Scalability in Ethereum Network Analysis: Methods and Techniques
Authors: Stefan K. Behfar
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The rapid growth of the Ethereum network has brought forth the urgent need for scalable analysis methods to handle the increasing volume of blockchain data. In this research, we propose efficient methodologies for making Ethereum network analysis scalable. Our approach leverages a combination of graph-based data representation, probabilistic sampling, and parallel processing techniques to achieve unprecedented scalability while preserving critical network insights. Data Representation: We develop a graph-based data representation that captures the underlying structure of the Ethereum network. Each block transaction is represented as a node in the graph, while the edges signify temporal relationships. This representation ensures efficient querying and traversal of the blockchain data. Probabilistic Sampling: To cope with the vastness of the Ethereum blockchain, we introduce a probabilistic sampling technique. This method strategically selects a representative subset of transactions and blocks, allowing for concise yet statistically significant analysis. The sampling approach maintains the integrity of the network properties while significantly reducing the computational burden. Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs): We incorporate GCNs to process the graph-based data representation efficiently. The GCN architecture enables the extraction of complex spatial and temporal patterns from the sampled data. This combination of graph representation and GCNs facilitates parallel processing and scalable analysis. Distributed Computing: To further enhance scalability, we adopt distributed computing frameworks such as Apache Hadoop and Apache Spark. By distributing computation across multiple nodes, we achieve a significant reduction in processing time and enhanced memory utilization. Our methodology harnesses the power of parallelism, making it well-suited for large-scale Ethereum network analysis. Evaluation and Results: We extensively evaluate our methodology on real-world Ethereum datasets covering diverse time periods and transaction volumes. The results demonstrate its superior scalability, outperforming traditional analysis methods. Our approach successfully handles the ever-growing Ethereum data, empowering researchers and developers with actionable insights from the blockchain. Case Studies: We apply our methodology to real-world Ethereum use cases, including detecting transaction patterns, analyzing smart contract interactions, and predicting network congestion. The results showcase the accuracy and efficiency of our approach, emphasizing its practical applicability in real-world scenarios. Security and Robustness: To ensure the reliability of our methodology, we conduct thorough security and robustness evaluations. Our approach demonstrates high resilience against adversarial attacks and perturbations, reaffirming its suitability for security-critical blockchain applications. Conclusion: By integrating graph-based data representation, GCNs, probabilistic sampling, and distributed computing, we achieve network scalability without compromising analytical precision. This approach addresses the pressing challenges posed by the expanding Ethereum network, opening new avenues for research and enabling real-time insights into decentralized ecosystems. Our work contributes to the development of scalable blockchain analytics, laying the foundation for sustainable growth and advancement in the domain of blockchain research and application.Keywords: Ethereum, scalable network, GCN, probabilistic sampling, distributed computing
Procedia PDF Downloads 765600 Dynamic Economic Load Dispatch Using Quadratic Programming: Application to Algerian Electrical Network
Authors: A. Graa, I. Ziane, F. Benhamida, S. Souag
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This paper presents a comparative analysis study of an efficient and reliable quadratic programming (QP) to solve economic load dispatch (ELD) problem with considering transmission losses in a power system. The proposed QP method takes care of different unit and system constraints to find optimal solution. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed QP solution, simulations have been performed using Algerian test system. Results obtained with the QP method have been compared with other existing relevant approaches available in literatures. Experimental results show a proficiency of the QP method over other existing techniques in terms of robustness and its optimal search.Keywords: economic dispatch, quadratic programming, Algerian network, dynamic load
Procedia PDF Downloads 5655599 Optimization Of Biogas Production Using Co-digestion Feedstocks Via Anaerobic Technologhy
Authors: E Tolufase
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The demand, high costs and health implications of using energy derived from hydrocarbon compound have necessitated the continuous search for alternative source of energy. The World energy market is facing some challenges viz: depletion of fossil fuel reserves, population explosion, lack of energy security, economic and urbanization growth and also, in Nigeria some rural areas still depend largely on wood, charcoal, kerosene, petrol among others, as the sources of their energy. To overcome these short falls in energy supply and demand, as well as taking into consideration the risks from global climate change due to effect of greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants from fossil fuels’ combustion, brought a lot of attention on efficiently harnessing the renewable energy sources. A very promising among the renewable energy resources for a clean energy technology for power production, vehicle and domestic usage is biogas. Therefore, optimization of biogas yield and quality is imperative. Hence, this study investigated yield and quality of biogas using low cost bio-digester and combination of various feed stocks referred to as co-digestion. Batch/Discontinuous Bio-digester type was used because it was cheap, easy, plausible and appropriate for different substrates used to get the desired results. Three substrates were used; cow dung, chicken droppings and lemon grass digested in five separate 21 litre digesters, A, B, C, D, and E and the gas collection system was designed using locally available materials. For single digestion we had; cow dung, chicken droppings, lemon grass, in Bio-digesters A, B, and C respectively, the co-digested three substrates in different mixed ratio 7:1:2 in digester D and E in ratio 5:3:2. The respective feed-stocks materials were collected locally, digested and analyzed in accordance with standard procedures. They were pre-fermented for a period of 10 days before being introduced into the digesters. They were digested for a retention period of 28 days, the physiochemical parameters namely; pressure, temperature, pH, volume of the gas collector system and volume of biogas produced were all closely monitored and recorded daily. The values of pH and temperature ranged 6.0 - 8.0, and 220C- 350C respectively. For the single substrate, bio-digester A(Cow dung only) produced biogas of total volume 0.1607m3(average volume of 0.0054m3 daily),while B (Chicken droppings ) produced 0.1722m3 (average of 0.0057m3 daily) and C (lemon grass) produced 0.1035m3 (average of 0.0035m3 daily). For the co-digested substrates in bio-digester D the total biogas produced was 0.2007m³ (average volume of 0.0067m³ daily) and bio-digester E produced 0.1991m³ (average volume of 0.0066m³ daily) It’s obvious from the results, that combining different substrates gave higher yields than when a singular feed stock was used and also mixing ratio played some roles in the yield improvement. Bio-digesters D and E contained the same substrates but mixed with different ratios, but higher yield was noticed in D with mixing ratio of 7:1:2 than in E with ratio 5:3:2.Therefore, co-digestion of substrates and mixing proportions are important factors for biogas production optimization.Keywords: anaerobic, batch, biogas, biodigester, digestion, fermentation, optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 275598 The Development of Open Access in Latin America and Caribbean: Mapping National and International Policies and Scientific Publications of the Region
Authors: Simone Belli, Sergio Minniti, Valeria Santoro
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ICTs and technology transfer can benefit and move a country forward in economic and social development. However, ICT and access to the Internet have been inequitably distributed in most developing countries. In terms of science production and dissemination, this divide articulates itself also through the inequitable distribution of access to scientific knowledge and networks, which results in the exclusion of developing countries from the center of science. Developing countries are on the fringe of Science and Technology (S&T) production due not only to low investment in research but also to the difficulties to access international scholarly literature. In this respect, Open access (OA) initiatives and knowledge infrastructure represent key elements for both producing significant changes in scholarly communication and reducing the problems of developing countries. The spreading of the OA movement in the region, exemplified by the growth of regional and national initiatives, such as the creation of OA institutional repositories (e.g. SciELO and Redalyc) and the establishing of supportive governmental policies, provides evidence of the significant role that OA is playing in reducing the scientific gap between Latin American countries and improving their participation in the so-called ‘global knowledge commons’. In this paper, we map OA publications in Latin America and observe how Latin American countries are moving forward and becoming a leading force in widening access to knowledge. Our analysis, developed as part of the H2020 EULAC Focus research project, is based on mixed methods and consists mainly of a bibliometric analysis of OA publications indexed in the most important scientific databases (Web of Science and Scopus) and OA regional repositories, as well as the qualitative analysis of documents related to the main OA initiatives in Latin America. Through our analysis, we aim at reflecting critically on what policies, international standards, and best practices might be adapted to incorporate OA worldwide and improve the infrastructure of the global knowledge commons.Keywords: open access, LAC countries, scientific publications, bibliometric analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 2125597 Conventional Four Steps Travel Demand Modeling for Kabul New City
Authors: Ahmad Mansoor Stanikzai, Yoshitaka Kajita
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This research is a very essential towards transportation planning of Kabul New City. In this research, the travel demand of Kabul metropolitan area (Existing and Kabul New City) are evaluated for three different target years (2015, current, 2025, mid-term, 2040, long-term). The outcome of this study indicates that, though currently the vehicle volume is less the capacity of existing road networks, Kabul city is suffering from daily traffic congestions. This is mainly due to lack of transportation management, the absence of proper policies, improper public transportation system and violation of traffic rules and regulations by inhabitants. On the other hand, the observed result indicates that the current vehicle to capacity ratio (VCR) which is the most used index to judge traffic status in the city is around 0.79. This indicates the inappropriate traffic condition of the city. Moreover, by the growth of population in mid-term (2025) and long-term (2040) and in the case of no development in the road network and transportation system, the VCR value will dramatically increase to 1.40 (2025) and 2.5 (2040). This can be a critical situation for an urban area from an urban transportation perspective. Thus, by introducing high-capacity public transportation system and the development of road network in Kabul New City and integrating these links with the existing city road network, significant improvements were observed in the value of VCR.Keywords: Afghanistan, Kabul new city, planning, policy, urban transportation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3315596 RV-YOLOX: Object Detection on Inland Waterways Based on Optimized YOLOX Through Fusion of Vision and 3+1D Millimeter Wave Radar
Authors: Zixian Zhang, Shanliang Yao, Zile Huang, Zhaodong Wu, Xiaohui Zhu, Yong Yue, Jieming Ma
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Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) are valuable due to their ability to perform dangerous and time-consuming tasks on the water. Object detection tasks are significant in these applications. However, inherent challenges, such as the complex distribution of obstacles, reflections from shore structures, water surface fog, etc., hinder the performance of object detection of USVs. To address these problems, this paper provides a fusion method for USVs to effectively detect objects in the inland surface environment, utilizing vision sensors and 3+1D Millimeter-wave radar. MMW radar is complementary to vision sensors, providing robust environmental information. The radar 3D point cloud is transferred to 2D radar pseudo image to unify radar and vision information format by utilizing the point transformer. We propose a multi-source object detection network (RV-YOLOX )based on radar-vision fusion for inland waterways environment. The performance is evaluated on our self-recording waterways dataset. Compared with the YOLOX network, our fusion network significantly improves detection accuracy, especially for objects with bad light conditions.Keywords: inland waterways, YOLO, sensor fusion, self-attention
Procedia PDF Downloads 1245595 Production Performance, Gut Microbial Count, Antibody Titer and Selected Welfare Indices of Broiler Birds Fed Higher Level of Animal Protein Concentrate With or Without Organic Acids Blend and Microencapsulated Phyto-Essential Oil
Authors: Ziaul Islam, Asad Sultan, Sarzamin Khan
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Organic acids and micro encapsulated phyto essential oils have revealed great potential as an antibiotic replacement and as an additive to work tremendously for the health maintenance of broiler chicken. To explore more about organic acids, a total of 600 day-old broiler chicks (Cobb-500) were procured from a local hatchery and distributed into 5 treatment groups having 6 replicates of 20 birds each; the duration of the biological trial was of 35 days. Group T1 served as a control group that were fed on corn soy-based diet only. T2 were fed with a diet having 6% poultry by-product meal (PBM) diet, T3, T4, and T5 were served as the same diet as T2 but supplemented with an organic acid, phyto essential oils alone, and a combination, respectively. The findings declared significant improvement (p<0.05) in body weight gain and FCR in groups T3, T4, and T5 while feed intake was not affected. European broiler performance indicators like production efficiency factor (EPEF) and broiler index (EBI) were improved significantly (p<0.05) by the treatments T3, T4, and T5 compared with T1 and T2. Carcass evaluation depicted significantly better (p<0.05) dressed and eviscerated weight along with carcass yield (T3, T4, T5). Broilers fed organic acid and phyto essential oils supplemented diet had significantly lower (p<0.05) Clostridium perfringens, Escherichia coliand Salmonella and increased Lactobacillus counts. Likewise, antibody titer against ND, IB, and IBD were also significantly (p<0.05) improved by the treatments T3, T4 and T5compared with the T1and T2. Litter moisture content was significantly (p<0.05) reduced by treatmentsT3, T4, and T5 on day 28 and 35 compared with the T1 and T2. These findings of the present study revealed that supplementation of organic acids blend and phyto-essential oils as an as an substitute to improve the performance of broilers without the use of feed antibiotics in broilers fed with 6% poultry by-product meal based diet.Keywords: organic acid, phyto essential oils, growth performance, PBM, gut health, microbiota, immunity
Procedia PDF Downloads 1285594 Secured Cancer Care and Cloud Services in Internet of Things /Wireless Sensor Network Based Medical Systems
Authors: Adeniyi Onasanya, Maher Elshakankiri
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In recent years, the Internet of Things (IoT) has constituted a driving force of modern technological advancement, and it has become increasingly common as its impacts are seen in a variety of application domains, including healthcare. IoT is characterized by the interconnectivity of smart sensors, objects, devices, data, and applications. With the unprecedented use of IoT in industrial, commercial and domestic, it becomes very imperative to harness the benefits and functionalities associated with the IoT technology in (re)assessing the provision and positioning of healthcare to ensure efficient and improved healthcare delivery. In this research, we are focusing on two important services in healthcare systems, which are cancer care services and business analytics/cloud services. These services incorporate the implementation of an IoT that provides solution and framework for analyzing health data gathered from IoT through various sensor networks and other smart devices in order to improve healthcare delivery and to help health care providers in their decision-making process for enhanced and efficient cancer treatment. In addition, we discuss the wireless sensor network (WSN), WSN routing and data transmission in the healthcare environment. Finally, some operational challenges and security issues with IoT-based healthcare system are discussed.Keywords: IoT, smart health care system, business analytics, (wireless) sensor network, cancer care services, cloud services
Procedia PDF Downloads 1775593 COVID-19 Detection from Computed Tomography Images Using UNet Segmentation, Region Extraction, and Classification Pipeline
Authors: Kenan Morani, Esra Kaya Ayana
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This study aimed to develop a novel pipeline for COVID-19 detection using a large and rigorously annotated database of computed tomography (CT) images. The pipeline consists of UNet-based segmentation, lung extraction, and a classification part, with the addition of optional slice removal techniques following the segmentation part. In this work, a batch normalization was added to the original UNet model to produce lighter and better localization, which is then utilized to build a full pipeline for COVID-19 diagnosis. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed pipeline, various segmentation methods were compared in terms of their performance and complexity. The proposed segmentation method with batch normalization outperformed traditional methods and other alternatives, resulting in a higher dice score on a publicly available dataset. Moreover, at the slice level, the proposed pipeline demonstrated high validation accuracy, indicating the efficiency of predicting 2D slices. At the patient level, the full approach exhibited higher validation accuracy and macro F1 score compared to other alternatives, surpassing the baseline. The classification component of the proposed pipeline utilizes a convolutional neural network (CNN) to make final diagnosis decisions. The COV19-CT-DB dataset, which contains a large number of CT scans with various types of slices and rigorously annotated for COVID-19 detection, was utilized for classification. The proposed pipeline outperformed many other alternatives on the dataset.Keywords: classification, computed tomography, lung extraction, macro F1 score, UNet segmentation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1315592 Differentiating Morphological Patterns of the Common Benthic Anglerfishes from the Indian Waters
Authors: M. P. Rajeeshkumar, K. V. Aneesh Kumar, J. L. Otero-Ferrer, A. Lombarte, M. Hashim, N. Saravanane, V. N.Sanjeevan, V. M. Tuset
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The anglerfishes are widely distributed from shallow to deep-water habitats and are highly diverse in morphology, behaviour, and niche occupancy patterns. To understand this interspecific variability and degree of niche overlap, we performed a functional analysis of five species inhabiting Indian waters where diversity of deep-sea anglerfishes is very high. The sensory capacities (otolith shape and eye size) were also studied to improve the understanding of coexistence of species. The analyses of fish body and otolith shape clustered species in two morphotypes related to phylogenetic lineages: i) Malthopsis lutea, Lophiodes lugubri and Halieutea coccinea were characterized by a dorso-ventrally flattened body with high swimming ability and relative small otoliths, and ii) Chaunax spp. were distinguished by their higher body depth, lower swimming efficiency, and relative big otoliths. The sensory organs did not show a pattern linked to depth distribution of species. However, the larger eye size in M. lutea suggested a nocturnal feeding activity, whereas Chaunax spp. had a large mouth and deeper body in response to different ecological niches. Therefore, the present study supports the hypothesis of spatial and temporal segregation of anglerfishes in the Indian waters, which can be explained from a functional approach and understanding from sensory capabilities.Keywords: functional traits, otoliths, niche overlap, fishes, Indian waters
Procedia PDF Downloads 1365591 Neuroplasticity in Language Acquisition in English as Foreign Language Classrooms
Authors: Sabitha Rahim
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In the context of teaching vocabulary of English as Foreign Language (EFL), the confluence of memory and retention is one of the most significant factors in students' language acquisition. The progress of students engaged in foreign language acquisition is often stymied by vocabulary attrition, which leads to learners' lack of confidence and motivation. However, among other factors, little research has investigated the importance of neuroplasticity in Foreign Language acquisition and how underused neural pathways lead to the loss of plasticity, thereby affecting the learners’ vocabulary retention and motivation. This research explored the effect of enhancing vocabulary acquisition of EFL students in the Foundation Year at King Abdulaziz University through various methods and neuroplasticity exercises that reinforced their attention, motivation, and engagement. It analyzed the results to determine if stimulating the brain of EFL learners by various physical and mental activities led to the improvement in short and long term memory in vocabulary retention. The main data collection methods were student surveys, assessment records of teachers, student achievement test results, and students' follow-up interviews. A key implication of this research is for the institutions to consider having multiple varieties of student activities promoting brain plasticity within the classrooms as an effective tool for foreign language acquisition. Building awareness among the faculty and adapting the curriculum to include activities that promote brain plasticity ensures an enhanced learning environment and effective language acquisition in EFL classrooms.Keywords: language acquisition, neural paths, neuroplasticity, vocabulary attrition
Procedia PDF Downloads 1765590 A Critical Review of Assessments of Geological CO2 Storage Resources in Pennsylvania and the Surrounding Region
Authors: Levent Taylan Ozgur Yildirim, Qihao Qian, John Yilin Wang
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A critical review of assessments of geological carbon dioxide (CO2) storage resources in Pennsylvania and the surrounding region was completed with a focus on the studies of Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP), United States Department of Energy (US-DOE), and United States Geological Survey (USGS). Pennsylvania Geological Survey participated in the MRCSP Phase I research to characterize potential storage formations in Pennsylvania. The MRCSP’s volumetric method estimated ~89 gigatonnes (Gt) of total CO2 storage resources in deep saline formations, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, coals, and shales in Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, the US-DOE calculated storage efficiency factors using log-odds normal distribution and Monte Carlo sampling, revealing contingent storage resources of ~18 Gt to ~20 Gt in deep saline formations, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, and coals in Pennsylvania. Additionally, the USGS employed Beta-PERT distribution and Monte Carlo sampling to determine buoyant and residual storage efficiency factors, resulting in 20 Gt of contingent storage resources across four storage assessment units in Appalachian Basin. However, few studies have explored CO2 storage resources in shales in the region, yielding inconclusive findings. This article provides a critical and most up to date review and analysis of geological CO2 storage resources in Pennsylvania and the region.Keywords: carbon capture and storage, geological CO2 storage, pennsylvania, appalachian basin
Procedia PDF Downloads 525589 Cybernetic Model-Based Optimization of a Fed-Batch Process for High Cell Density Cultivation of E. Coli In Shake Flasks
Authors: Snehal D. Ganjave, Hardik Dodia, Avinash V. Sunder, Swati Madhu, Pramod P. Wangikar
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Batch cultivation of recombinant bacteria in shake flasks results in low cell density due to nutrient depletion. Previous protocols on high cell density cultivation in shake flasks have relied mainly on controlled release mechanisms and extended cultivation protocols. In the present work, we report an optimized fed-batch process for high cell density cultivation of recombinant E. coli BL21(DE3) for protein production. A cybernetic model-based, multi-objective optimization strategy was implemented to obtain the optimum operating variables to achieve maximum biomass and minimized substrate feed rate. A syringe pump was used to feed a mixture of glycerol and yeast extract into the shake flask. Preliminary experiments were conducted with online monitoring of dissolved oxygen (DO) and offline measurements of biomass and glycerol to estimate the model parameters. Multi-objective optimization was performed to obtain the pareto front surface. The selected optimized recipe was tested for a range of proteins that show different extent soluble expression in E. coli. These included eYFP and LkADH, which are largely expressed in soluble fractions, CbFDH and GcanADH , which are partially soluble, and human PDGF, which forms inclusion bodies. The biomass concentrations achieved in 24 h were in the range 19.9-21.5 g/L, while the model predicted value was 19.44 g/L. The process was successfully reproduced in a standard laboratory shake flask without online monitoring of DO and pH. The optimized fed-batch process showed significant improvement in both the biomass and protein production of the tested recombinant proteins compared to batch cultivation. The proposed process will have significant implications in the routine cultivation of E. coli for various applications.Keywords: cybernetic model, E. coli, high cell density cultivation, multi-objective optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 2585588 Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks to Characterize and Predict Job Placement
Authors: Xupin Zhang, Maria Caterina Bramati, Enrest Fokoue
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Understanding the career placement of graduates from the university is crucial for both the qualities of education and ultimate satisfaction of students. In this research, we adapt the capabilities of dynamic Bayesian networks to characterize and predict students’ job placement using data from various universities. We also provide elements of the estimation of the indicator (score) of the strength of the network. The research focuses on overall findings as well as specific student groups including international and STEM students and their insight on the career path and what changes need to be made. The derived Bayesian network has the potential to be used as a tool for simulating the career path for students and ultimately helps universities in both academic advising and career counseling.Keywords: dynamic bayesian networks, indicator estimation, job placement, social networks
Procedia PDF Downloads 3795587 Task Based Functional Connectivity within Reward Network in Food Image Viewing Paradigm Using Functional MRI
Authors: Preetham Shankapal, Jill King, Kori Murray, Corby Martin, Paula Giselman, Jason Hicks, Owen Carmicheal
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Activation of reward and satiety networks in the brain while processing palatable food cues, as well as functional connectivity during rest has been studied using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the brain in various obesity phenotypes. However, functional connectivity within the reward and satiety network during food cue processing is understudied. 14 obese individuals underwent two fMRI scans during viewing of Macronutrient Picture System images. Each scan included two blocks of images of High Sugar/High Fat (HSHF), High Carbohydrate/High Fat (HCHF), Low Sugar/Low Fat (LSLF) and also non-food images. Seed voxels within seven food reward relevant ROIs: Insula, putamen and cingulate, precentral, parahippocampal, medial frontal and superior temporal gyri were isolated based on a prior meta-analysis. Beta series correlation for task-related functional connectivity between these seed voxels and the rest of the brain was computed. Voxel-level differences in functional connectivity were calculated between: first and the second scan; individuals who saw novel (N=7) vs. Repeated (N=7) images in the second scan; and between the HC/HF, HSHF blocks vs LSLF and non-food blocks. Computations and analysis showed that during food image viewing, reward network ROIs showed significant functional connectivity with each other and with other regions responsible for attentional and motor control, including inferior parietal lobe and precentral gyrus. These functional connectivity values were heightened among individuals who viewed novel HS/HF images in the second scan. In the second scan session, functional connectivity was reduced within the reward network but increased within attention, memory and recognition regions, suggesting habituation to reward properties and increased recollection of previously viewed images. In conclusion it can be inferred that Functional Connectivity within reward network and between reward and other brain regions, varies by important experimental conditions during food photography viewing, including habituation to shown foods.Keywords: fMRI, functional connectivity, task-based, beta series correlation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2705586 Analyzing Natural and Social Resources for the Planning of Complex Development Based on Ecotourism: A Case Study from Hungary and Slovakia
Authors: Barnabás Körmöndi
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The recent crises have affected societies worldwide, resulting in the irresponsible exploitation of natural resources and the unattainability of sustainability. Regions that are economically underdeveloped, such as the Bodrogköz in Eastern Hungary and Slovakia, experience these issues more severely. The aim of this study is to analyze the natural and social resources of the Bodrogköz area for the planning of complex development based on ecotourism. The objective is to develop ecotourism opportunities in this least developed area of the borderland of Hungary and Slovakia. The study utilizes desk research, deep interviews, focus group meetings, and remote sensing methods. Desk research is aimed at providing a comprehensive understanding of the area, while deep interviews and focus group meetings were conducted to understand the stakeholders' perspectives on the potential for ecotourism. Remote sensing methods were used to better understand changes in the natural environment. The study identified the potential for ecotourism development in the Bodrogköz area due to its near-natural habitats along its bordering rivers and rich cultural heritage. The analysis revealed that ecotourism could promote the region's sustainable development, which is essential for its economic growth. Additionally, the study identified the possible threats to the natural environment during ecotourism development and suggested strategies to mitigate these threats. This study highlights the significance of ecotourism in promoting sustainable development in underdeveloped areas such as the Bodrogköz. It provides a basis for future research on ecotourism development and sustainable planning in similar regions. The analysis is based on the data collected through desk research, deep interviews, focus group meetings, and remote sensing. The assessment was conducted through content analysis, which allowed for the identification of themes and patterns in the data. The study addressed the question of how to develop ecotourism in the least developed area of the borderland of Hungary and Slovakia and promote sustainable development in the region. In conclusion, the study highlights the potential for ecotourism development in Bodrogköz and identifies the natural and social resources that contribute to its development. The study emphasizes the need for sustainable development to promote economic growth and mitigate any environmental threats. The findings can inform the development of future strategic plans for ecotourism, promoting sustainable development in underdeveloped regions.Keywords: ecotourism, natural resources, remote sensing, social development
Procedia PDF Downloads 645585 Fight against Money Laundering with Optical Character Recognition
Authors: Saikiran Subbagari, Avinash Malladhi
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Anti Money Laundering (AML) regulations are designed to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing activities worldwide. Financial institutions around the world are legally obligated to identify, assess and mitigate the risks associated with money laundering and report any suspicious transactions to governing authorities. With increasing volumes of data to analyze, financial institutions seek to automate their AML processes. In the rise of financial crimes, optical character recognition (OCR), in combination with machine learning (ML) algorithms, serves as a crucial tool for automating AML processes by extracting the data from documents and identifying suspicious transactions. In this paper, we examine the utilization of OCR for AML and delve into various OCR techniques employed in AML processes. These techniques encompass template-based, feature-based, neural network-based, natural language processing (NLP), hidden markov models (HMMs), conditional random fields (CRFs), binarizations, pattern matching and stroke width transform (SWT). We evaluate each technique, discussing their strengths and constraints. Also, we emphasize on how OCR can improve the accuracy of customer identity verification by comparing the extracted text with the office of foreign assets control (OFAC) watchlist. We will also discuss how OCR helps to overcome language barriers in AML compliance. We also address the implementation challenges that OCR-based AML systems may face and offer recommendations for financial institutions based on the data from previous research studies, which illustrate the effectiveness of OCR-based AML.Keywords: anti-money laundering, compliance, financial crimes, fraud detection, machine learning, optical character recognition
Procedia PDF Downloads 1445584 Genotypic Characterization of Gram-Positive Bacteria Isolated on Ornamental Animals Feed
Authors: C. Miranda, R. Soares, S. Cunha, L. Ferreira, G. Igrejas, P. Poeta
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Different animal species, including ornamental animals, are reported as potential reservoirs of antibiotic resistance genes. Consequently, these resistances can be disseminated in the environment and transferred to humans. Moreover, multidrug-resistant bacteria reduce the efficacy of antibiotics, as the case of vancomycin-resistant enterococci. Enterococcus faecalis and E. faecium are described as the main nosocomial pathogens. In this line, the aim of this study was to characterize resistance and virulence genes of enterococci species isolated from samples of food supplied to ornamental animals during 2020. The 29 enterococci isolates (10 E. faecalis and 19 E. faecium) were tested for the presence of the resistance genes for the following antibiotics: erythromicyn (ermA, ermB and ermC), tetracycline (tetL, tetM, tetK and tetO), quinupristin/dalfopristin (vatD and vatE), gentamicin (aac(6’)-aph(2’’)-Ia), chloramphenicol (catA), streptomycin (ant(6)-Ia) and vancomycin (vanA and vanB). The same isolates were also tested for 10 virulence factors genes (esp, ace, gelE, agg, fsr, cpd, cylA, cylB, cylM and cylLL). The resistance and virulence genes were performed by PCR, using specific primers and conditions. Negative and positive controls were used in all PCR assays. The most prevalent resistance genes detected in both enterococci species were ermB (n=15, 52%), ermC (n=7, 24%), tetK (n=8, 28%) and vatE (n=4, 14%). Resistance genes for vancomycin were found in ten (34%) E. faecalis and ten (34%) E. faecium isolates. Only E. faecium isolates showed the presence of ermA (n=2, 7%), tetL (n=13, 45%) and ant(6)-Ia gene (n=4, 14%). A total of nine (31%) enterococci isolates were classified as multidrug-resistant bacteria (3 E. faecalis and 6 E. faecium). In three E. faecalis and one E. faecium were not detected resistance genes. The virulence genes detected in both species were agg (n=6, 21%) and cylLL (n=11, 38%). In general, each isolate showed only one of these virulence genes. Five E. faecalis and eleven E. faecium isolates were negative for all analyzed virulence genes. These preliminary results showed the presence of multidrug-resistant enterococci in food supplied to ornamental animals, in particular vancomycin-resistant enterococci. This genotypic characterization reinforces the relevance to public health in the control of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.Keywords: antibiotic resistance, enterococci, feed, ornamental animals
Procedia PDF Downloads 1965583 Enhancing Temporal Extrapolation of Wind Speed Using a Hybrid Technique: A Case Study in West Coast of Denmark
Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao
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The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.Keywords: data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1355582 Innovative Preparation Techniques: Boosting Oral Bioavailability of Phenylbutyric Acid Through Choline Salt-Based API-Ionic Liquids and Therapeutic Deep Eutectic Systems
Authors: Lin Po-Hsi, Sheu Ming-Thau
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Urea cycle disorders (UCD) are rare genetic metabolic disorders that compromise the body's urea cycle. Sodium phenylbutyrate (SPB) is a medication commonly administered in tablet or powder form to lower ammonia levels. Nonetheless, its high sodium content poses risks to sodium-sensitive UCD patients. This necessitates the creation of an alternative drug formulation to mitigate sodium load and optimize drug delivery for UCD patients. This study focused on crafting a novel oral drug formulation for UCD, leveraging choline bicarbonate and phenylbutyric acid. The active pharmaceutical ingredient-ionic liquids (API-ILs) and therapeutic deep eutectic systems (THEDES) were formed by combining these with choline chloride. These systems display characteristics like maintaining a liquid state at room temperature and exhibiting enhanced solubility. This in turn amplifies drug dissolution rate, permeability, and ultimately oral bioavailability. Incorporating choline-based phenylbutyric acid as a substitute for traditional SPB can effectively curtail the sodium load in UCD patients. Our in vitro dissolution experiments revealed that the ILs and DESs, synthesized using choline bicarbonate and choline chloride with phenylbutyric acid, surpassed commercial tablets in dissolution speed. Pharmacokinetic evaluations in SD rats indicated a notable uptick in the oral bioavailability of phenylbutyric acid, underscoring the efficacy of choline salt ILs in augmenting its bioavailability. Additional in vitro intestinal permeability tests on SD rats authenticated that the ILs, formulated with choline bicarbonate and phenylbutyric acid, demonstrate superior permeability compared to their sodium and acid counterparts. To conclude, choline salt ILs developed from choline bicarbonate and phenylbutyric acid present a promising avenue for UCD treatment, with the added benefit of reduced sodium load. They also hold merit in formulation engineering. The sustained-release capabilities of DESs position them favorably for drug delivery, while the low toxicity and cost-effectiveness of choline chloride signal potential in formulation engineering. Overall, this drug formulation heralds a prospective therapeutic avenue for UCD patients.Keywords: phenylbutyric acid, sodium phenylbutyrate, choline salt, ionic liquids, deep eutectic systems, oral bioavailability
Procedia PDF Downloads 1165581 Mechanical and Optical Properties of Doped Aluminum Nitride Thin Films
Authors: Padmalochan Panda, R. Ramaseshan
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Aluminum nitride (AlN) is a potential candidate for semiconductor industry due to its wide band gap (6.2 eV), high thermal conductivity and low thermal coefficient of expansion. A-plane oriented AlN film finds an important role in deep UV-LED with higher isotropic light extraction efficiency. Also, Cr-doped AlN films exhibit dilute magnetic semiconductor property with high Curie temperature (300 K), and thus compatible with modern day microelectronics. In this work, highly a-axis oriented wurtzite AlN and Al1-xMxN (M = Cr, Ti) films have synthesized by reactive co-sputtering technique at different concentration. Crystal structure of these films is studied by Grazing incidence X-ray diffraction (GIXRD) and Transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Identification of binding energy and concentration (x) in these films is carried out by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). Local crystal structure around the Cr and Ti atom of these films are investigated by X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). It is found that Cr and Ti replace the Al atom in AlN lattice and the bond lengths in first and second coordination sphere with N and Al, respectively, decrease concerning doping concentration due to strong p-d hybridization. The nano-indentation hardness of Cr and Ti-doped AlN films seems to increase from 17.5 GPa (AlN) to around 23 and 27.5 GPa, respectively. An-isotropic optical properties of these films are studied by the Spectroscopic Ellipsometry technique. Refractive index and extinction coefficient of these films are enhanced in normal dispersion region as compared to the parent AlN film. The optical band gap energies also seem to vary between deep UV to UV regions with the addition of Cr, thus by bringing out the usefulness of these films in the area of optoelectronic device applications.Keywords: ellipsometry, GIXRD, hardness, XAS
Procedia PDF Downloads 1145580 Optrix: Energy Aware Cross Layer Routing Using Convex Optimization in Wireless Sensor Networks
Authors: Ali Shareef, Aliha Shareef, Yifeng Zhu
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Energy minimization is of great importance in wireless sensor networks in extending the battery lifetime. One of the key activities of nodes in a WSN is communication and the routing of their data to a centralized base-station or sink. Routing using the shortest path to the sink is not the best solution since it will cause nodes along this path to fail prematurely. We propose a cross-layer energy efficient routing protocol Optrix that utilizes a convex formulation to maximize the lifetime of the network as a whole. We further propose, Optrix-BW, a novel convex formulation with bandwidth constraint that allows the channel conditions to be accounted for in routing. By considering this key channel parameter we demonstrate that Optrix-BW is capable of congestion control. Optrix is implemented in TinyOS, and we demonstrate that a relatively large topology of 40 nodes can converge to within 91% of the optimal routing solution. We describe the pitfalls and issues related with utilizing a continuous form technique such as convex optimization with discrete packet based communication systems as found in WSNs. We propose a routing controller mechanism that allows for this transformation. We compare Optrix against the Collection Tree Protocol (CTP) and we found that Optrix performs better in terms of convergence to an optimal routing solution, for load balancing and network lifetime maximization than CTP.Keywords: wireless sensor network, Energy Efficient Routing
Procedia PDF Downloads 3915579 Network and Sentiment Analysis of U.S. Congressional Tweets
Authors: Chaitanya Kanakamedala, Hansa Pradhan, Carter Gilbert
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Social media platforms, such as Twitter, are excellent datasets for understanding human interactions and sentiments. This report explores social dynamics among US Congressional members through a network analysis applied to a dataset of tweets spanning 2008 to 2017 from the ’US Congressional Tweets Dataset’. In this report, we preform network analysis where connections between users (edges) are established based on a similarity threshold: two tweets are connected if the tweets they post are similar. By utilizing the Natural Language Toolkit (NLTK) and NetworkX, we quantified tweet similarity and constructed a graph comprising various interconnected components. Each component represents a cluster of users with closely aligned content. We then preform sentiment analysis on each cluster to explore the prevalent emotions and opinions within these groups. Our findings reveal that despite the initial expectation of distinct ideological divisions typically aligning with party lines, the analysis exposed a high degree of topical convergence across tweets from different political affiliations. The analysis preformed in this report not only highlights the potential of social media as a tool for political communication but also suggests a complex layer of interaction that transcends traditional partisan boundaries, reflecting a complicated landscape of politics in the digital age.Keywords: natural language processing, sentiment analysis, centrality analysis, topic modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 335578 Evaluation of Weather Risk Insurance for Agricultural Products Using a 3-Factor Pricing Model
Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine
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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price
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