Search results for: estimation after selection

Authors: Fatema Akram, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Mohammad Masud Kamal Khan, Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir

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A variety of routing techniques are available to develop surface runoff hydrographs from rainfall. The selection of runoff routing method is very vital as it is directly related to the type of watershed and the required degree of accuracy. There are different modelling softwares available to explore the rainfall-runoff process in urban areas. XPSTORM, a link-node based, integrated storm-water modelling software, has been used in this study for developing surface runoff hydrograph for a Golf course area located in Rockhampton in Central Queensland in Australia. Four commonly used methods, namely SWMM runoff, Kinematic wave, Laurenson, and Time-Area are employed to generate runoff hydrograph for design storm of this study area. In runoff mode of XPSTORM, the rainfall, infiltration, evaporation and depression storage for sub-catchments were simulated and the runoff from the sub-catchment to collection node was calculated. The simulation results are presented, discussed and compared. The total surface runoff generated by SWMM runoff, Kinematic wave and Time-Area methods are found to be reasonably close, which indicates any of these methods can be used for developing runoff hydrograph of the study area. Laurenson method produces a comparatively less amount of surface runoff, however, it creates highest peak of surface runoff among all which may be suitable for hilly region. Although the Laurenson hydrograph technique is widely acceptable surface runoff routing technique in Queensland (Australia), extensive investigation is recommended with detailed topographic and hydrologic data in order to assess its suitability for use in the case study area.

Keywords: ARI, design storm, IFD, rainfall temporal pattern, routing techniques, surface runoff, XPSTORM

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Authors: Aliyu Shitu Said

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One of the major setbacks of every society is the proliferation of crimes that results in the inducement of fear, destruction of properties and loss of lives of people. The rising incidence of crime and general insecurity rate in the society and the inability of the policing agencies to curtail the menace necessitated the introduction of community policing in order to have a collaborative effort with community members in addressing the problem of crime. Thus, this study assessed the impact of community policing in crime prevention and control in Fagge Local Government area, Kano State, Nigeria. The study also examined the elements, roles, and challenges of community policing in crime prevention and control in the study area. The study adopted Broken Window and Routine Activity theories as frame of analysis. Mixed methods of data collection (quantitative and qualitative) were utilized for the study. Multi stage and purposive sampling techniques were adopted in selection of the study population. A total of 308 respondents were sampled for the study. These include 300 members of the public who were sampled through a multi stage sampling for questionnaire administration and 8 other respondents who were purposively sampled for in-depth interview. Findings of the study revealed that community policing has significant impact on crime prevention and control in the study area. Findings of the study further revealed that the elements and roles of community policing are effective and fully utilized, and there is cordial relationship between the police and the community members in the study area. This study therefore recommends that government should provide adequate support to community policing programmes and give more awareness to public, so as to boost the morale of the community in having a collaborative effort with the police in crime prevention and control.

Keywords: community, policing, crime, prevention, control

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Authors: Adam Y. Sulaiman, Donal F. Cotter, Ming J. Huang, Neil J. Hewitt

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Suitable low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants that conform to F-gas regulations are required to extend the operational envelope of high-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) used for industrial waste heat recovery processes. The thermophysical properties and characteristics of these working fluids need to be assessed to provide a comprehensive understanding of operational effectiveness in HTHP applications. This paper presents the results of a theoretical simulation to investigate a range of low-GWP refrigerants and their suitability to supersede refrigerants HFC-245fa and HFC-365mfc. A steady-state thermodynamic model of a single-stage HTHP with an internal heat exchanger (IHX) was developed to assess system cycle characteristics at temperature ranges between 50 to 80 °C heat source and 90 to 150 °C heat sink. A practical approach to maximize the operational efficiency was examined to determine the effects of regulating minimum superheat within the process and subsequent influence on energetic and exergetic efficiencies. A comprehensive map of minimum superheat across the HTHP operating variables were used to assess specific tipping points in performance at 30 and 70 K temperature lifts. Based on initial results, the refrigerants HCFO-1233zd(E) and HFO-1336mzz(Z) were found to be closely aligned matches for refrigerants HFC-245fa and HFC-365mfc. The overall results show effective performance for HCFO-1233zd(E) occurs between 5-7 K minimum superheat, and HFO-1336mzz(Z) between 18-21 K dependant on temperature lift. This work provides a method to optimize refrigerant selection based on operational indicators to maximize overall HTHPs system performance.

Keywords: high-temperature heat pump, minimum superheat, energy & exergy efficiency, low GWP refrigerants

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Authors: Edward Poluyi, Eghosa Morgan, Charles Poluyi, Chibuikem Ikwuegbuenyi, Grace Imaguezegie

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Background: Current epidemiological studies have examined the associations between moderate and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and their risks of developing neurodegenerative diseases. Concussion, also known as mild TBI (mTBI), is however quite distinct from moderate or severe TBIs. Only few studies in this burgeoning area have examined concussion—especially repetitive episodes—and neurodegenerative diseases. Thus, no definite relationship has been established between them. Objectives : This review will discuss the available literature linking concussion and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Materials and Methods: Given the complexity of this subject, a realistic review methodology was selected which includes clarifying the scope and developing a theoretical framework, developing a search strategy, selection and appraisal, data extraction, and synthesis. A detailed literature matrix was set out in order to get relevant and recent findings on this topic. Results: Presently, there is no objective clinical test for the diagnosis of concussion because the features are less obvious on physical examination. Absence of an objective test in diagnosing concussion sometimes leads to skepticism when confirming the presence or absence of concussion. Intriguingly, several possible explanations have been proposed in the pathological mechanisms that lead to the development of some neurodegenerative disorders (such as ALS and AD) and concussion but the two major events are deposition of tau proteins (abnormal microtubule proteins) and neuroinflammation, which ranges from glutamate excitotoxicity pathways and inflammatory pathways (which leads to a rise in the metabolic demands of microglia cells and neurons), to mitochondrial function via the oxidative pathways.

Keywords: amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Alzheimer's disease, mild traumatic brain injury, neurodegeneration

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Authors: Hung-Sheng Lin, Cheng-Hsuan Li

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Over the past few years, kernel-based algorithms have been widely used to extend some linear feature extraction methods such as principal component analysis (PCA), linear discriminate analysis (LDA), and nonparametric weighted feature extraction (NWFE) to their nonlinear versions, kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), generalized discriminate analysis (GDA), and kernel nonparametric weighted feature extraction (KNWFE), respectively. These nonlinear feature extraction methods can detect nonlinear directions with the largest nonlinear variance or the largest class separability based on the given kernel function. Moreover, they have been applied to improve the target detection or the image classification of hyperspectral images. The double nearest proportion feature extraction (DNP) can effectively reduce the overlap effect and have good performance in hyperspectral image classification. The DNP structure is an extension of the k-nearest neighbor technique. For each sample, there are two corresponding nearest proportions of samples, the self-class nearest proportion and the other-class nearest proportion. The term “nearest proportion” used here consider both the local information and other more global information. With these settings, the effect of the overlap between the sample distributions can be reduced. Usually, the maximum likelihood estimator and the related unbiased estimator are not ideal estimators in high dimensional inference problems, particularly in small data-size situation. Hence, an improved estimator by shrinkage estimation (regularization) is proposed. Based on the DNP structure, LDA is included as a special case. In this paper, the kernel method is applied to extend DNP to kernel-based DNP (KDNP). In addition to the advantages of DNP, KDNP surpasses DNP in the experimental results. According to the experiments on the real hyperspectral image data sets, the classification performance of KDNP is better than that of PCA, LDA, NWFE, and their kernel versions, KPCA, GDA, and KNWFE.

Keywords: feature extraction, kernel method, double nearest proportion feature extraction, kernel double nearest feature extraction

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Authors: Jacky Liu

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This paper develops a team sports outcome prediction system with potential for wide-ranging applications across various disciplines. Despite significant advancements in predictive analytics, existing studies in sports outcome predictions possess considerable limitations, including insufficient feature engineering and underutilization of advanced machine learning techniques, among others. To address these issues, we extend the Sports Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (SRP-CRISP-DM) framework and propose a unique, comprehensive predictive system, using National Basketball Association (NBA) data as an example to test this extended framework. Our approach follows a holistic methodology in feature engineering, employing both Time Series and Non-Time Series Data, as well as conducting Explanatory Data Analysis and Feature Selection. Furthermore, we contribute to the discourse on target variable choice in team sports outcome prediction, asserting that point spread prediction yields higher profits as opposed to game-winner predictions. Using machine learning algorithms, particularly XGBoost, results in a significant improvement in predictive accuracy of team sports outcomes. Applied to point spread betting strategies, it offers an astounding annual return of approximately 900% on an initial investment of $100. Our findings not only contribute to academic literature, but have critical practical implications for sports betting. Our study advances the understanding of team sports outcome prediction a burgeoning are in complex system predictions and pave the way for potential profitability and more informed decision making in sports betting markets.

Keywords: machine learning, team sports, game outcome prediction, sports betting, profits simulation

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Authors: Aruna Bommareddi

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The journey of the novel is well examined in Indian academia as an offshoot of the novel in English. There have been many attempts to understand aspects of the early novel in India which shared a commonality with the English novel. The regional novel has had an entirely different trajectory which is mapped in the paper. The main focus of the paper would be to look at the historical emergence of the genre of the regional novel in Indian Literatures with specific reference to Kannada, Hindi, and Bengali. The selection of these languages is guided not only by familiarity with these languages as also based on the significance that these languages enjoy in the sub-continent and for the emergence of the regional novel as a specific category in these languages. The regional novels under study are Phaneeswaranath Renu’s Maila Anchal, Tarashankar Bandopadhyaya’s Ganadevata, and Kuvempu’s House of Kanuru for exploration of the themes of its emergence and some aspects of the regional novel common to and different from each other. The paper would explore the various movements that have shaped the genre regional novel in these Literatures. Though Phaneeswarnath Renu’s Maila Anchal is published in 1956, the novel is set in pre-Independent India and therefore shares a commonality of themes with the other two novels, House of Kanuru and Ganadevata. All three novels explore themes of superstition, ignorance, poverty, and the interventions of educated youth to salvage the crises in these backward regional worlds. In fact, it was Renu who assertively declared that he was going to write a regional novel and hence the tile of the first regional novel in Hindi is Maila Anchal meaning the soiled border. In Hindi, anchal also means the region therefore, the title is suggestive of a dirty region as well. The novel exposes the squalor, ignorance, and the conflict ridden life of the village or region as opposed to the rosy image of the village in literature. With this, all such novels which depicted conflicts of the region got recognized as regional novels even though they may have been written prior to Renu’s declaration. All three novels under study succeed in bringing out the complexity of rural life at a given point of time in its history.

Keywords: bengali, hindi, kannada, regional novel, telugu

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Authors: Pablo Andres Flores Siguenza, Noe Rodrigo Guaman Guachichullca

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Sustainable practices have received increasing attention from academics and companies in recent decades due to, among many factors, the market advantages they generate, global commitments, and policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, addressing resource scarcity, and rethinking waste management. The search for ways to promote sustainability leads industries to abandon classical methods and resort to the use of innovative strategies, which in turn are based on quantitative analysis methods and tools such as life cycle analysis (LCA), which is the basis for sustainable production and consumption, since it is a method that analyzes objectively, methodically, systematically, and scientifically the environmental impact caused by a process/product during its entire life cycle. The objective of this study is to develop an LCA of the antibacterial gel product throughout its entire supply chain (SC) under the methodology of ISO 14044 with the help of Gabi software and the Recipe 2016 method. The selection of the case study product was made based on its relevance in the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its exponential increase in production. For the development of the LCA, data from a Mexican company are used, and 3 scenarios are defined to obtain the midpoint and endpoint environmental impacts both by phases and globally. As part of the results, the most outstanding environmental impact categories are climate change, fossil fuel depletion, and terrestrial ecotoxicity, and the stage that generates the most pollution in the entire SC is the extraction of raw materials. The study serves as a basis for the development of different sustainability strategies, demonstrates the usefulness of an LCA, and agrees with different authors on the role and importance of this methodology in sustainable development.

Keywords: sustainability, sustainable development, life cycle analysis, environmental impact, antibacterial gel

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Authors: Tsai Yu-hsin, Chung Yi-Hsin

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The employment of an HSR system, resulting in elevation in the inter-city/-region accessibility, is likely to promote spatial interaction between places in the HSR and extended territory. The inter-city/-region travel via HSR could be, among others, affected by the land use, transportation, and location of the HSR station at both trip origin and destination ends. However, relatively few insights have been shed on these impacts and spatial patterns of the HSR travel. The research purposes, as phase one of a series of HSR related research, of this study are threefold: to analyze the general spatial patterns of HSR trips, such as the spatial distribution of trip origins and destinations; to analyze if specific land use, transportation characteristics, and trip characteristics affect HSR trips in terms of the use of HSR, the distribution of trip origins and destinations, and; to analyze the socio-economic characteristics of HSR travelers. With the Taiwan HSR starting operation in 2007, this study emphasizes on the intermediate-term impact of HSR, which is made possible with the population and housing census and industry and commercial census data and a station area intercept survey conducted in the summer 2014. The analysis will be conducted at the city, inter-city, and inter-region spatial levels, as necessary and required. The analysis tools include descriptive statistics and multivariate analysis with the assistance of SPSS, HLM and ArcGIS. The findings, on the one hand, can provide policy implications for associated land use, transportation plan and the site selection of HSR station. On the other hand, on the travel the findings are expected to provide insights that can help explain how land use and real estate values could be affected by HSR in following phases of this series of research.

Keywords: high speed rail, land use, travel, spatial pattern

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Authors: Oyatayo Kehinde Taofik, Ndabula Christopher

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Drainage basins are a central theme in the green economy. The rising challenges in flooding, erosion or sediment transport and sedimentation threaten the green economy. This has led to increasing emphasis on quantitative analysis of drainage basin parameters for better understanding, estimation and prediction of fluvial responses and, thus associated hazards or disasters. This can be achieved through direct measurement, characterization, parameterization, or modeling. This study applied the Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System approach of parameterization and characterization of the morphometric variables of Katsina – Ala basin using a 30 m resolution Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). This was complemented with topographic and hydrological maps of Katsina-Ala on a scale of 1:50,000. Linear, areal and relief parameters were characterized. The result of the study shows that Ala and Udene sub-watersheds are 4th and 5th order basins, respectively. The stream network shows a dendritic pattern, indicating homogeneity in texture and a lack of structural control in the study area. Ala and Udene sub-watersheds have the following values for elongation ratio, circularity ratio, form factor and relief ratio: 0.48 / 0.39 / 0.35/ 9.97 and 0.40 / 0.35 / 0.32 / 6.0. They also have the following values for drainage texture and ruggedness index of 0.86 / 0.011 and 1.57 / 0.016. The study concludes that the two sub-watersheds are elongated, suggesting that they are susceptible to erosion and, thus higher sediment load in the river channels, which will dispose the watersheds to higher flood peaks. The study also concludes that the sub-watersheds have a very coarse texture, with good permeability of subsurface materials and infiltration capacity, which significantly recharge the groundwater. The study recommends that efforts should be put in place by the Local and State Governments to reduce the size of paved surfaces in these sub-watersheds by implementing a robust agroforestry program at the grass root level.

Keywords: erosion, flood, mitigation, morphometry, watershed

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Authors: Sehrish Qayyum

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In this age of constant technology, asymmetrical warfare could not be won. Attuned psychometric study confirms that screaming sometimes is more productive than active retaliation against strong adversaries. Asymmetric warfare is a game of nerves and thoughts with least vigorous participation for large anticipated losses. It creates the condition of paraplegia with partial but permanent immobility, which effects the core warfare operations, being screams rather than active retaliation. When one’s own power is doubted, it gives power to one’s own doubt to ruin all planning either done with superlative cost-benefit analysis. Strategically calculated estimation of asymmetric warfare since the early WWI to WWII, WWII-to Cold War, and then to the current era in three chronological periods exposits that courage makes nations win the battle of warriors to battle of comrades. Asymmetric warfare has been most difficult to fight and survive due to unexpectedness and being lethal despite preparations. Thoughts before action may be the best-assumed strategy to mix Regional Security Complex Theory and OODA loop to develop the Paraplegic Resilience Policy Plan (PRPP) to win asymmetric warfare. PRPP may serve to control and halt the ongoing wave of terrorism, guerilla warfare, and insurgencies, etc. PRPP, along with a strategic work plan, is based on psychometric analysis to deal with any possible war condition and tactic to save millions of innocent lives such that lost in Christchurch New Zealand in 2019, November 2015 Paris attacks, and Berlin market attacks in 2016, etc. Getting tangled into self-imposed epistemic dilemmas results in regret that becomes the only option of performance. It is a descriptive psychometric analysis of war conditions with generic application of probability tests to find the best possible options and conditions to develop PRPP for any adverse condition possible so far. Innovation in technology begets innovation in planning and action-plan to serve as a rheostat approach to deal with asymmetric warfare.

Keywords: asymmetric warfare, psychometric analysis, PRPP, security

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Authors: Runlin Liu, Shilong Li

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China is a mountainous country, with two-thirds of its territory covered by plateaus, hills, and mountains, and nearly half of the cities and towns are distributed in mountainous areas. Compared with the environmental constraints in the development path of cities and towns in the plains, there are heterogeneities in aspects such as spatial characteristics, growth mode, and ecological protection and so on for mountain village and townlets, and the development path of mountain village and townlets has a bidirectional relationship between mountain space and economic growth. Based on classical growth theory, this article explores the two-dimensional coupling relation between space and economy in mountain village and townlets under background of rural rejuvenation. GIS technology is adopted in the study to analyze spatial trends and patterns, economical spatial differentiation characteristics of village and townlets. This powerful tool can also help differentiate and analyze limiting factors and assessment systems in the economic growth of village and townlets under spatial dimension of mountainous space. To make the research more specific, this article selects mountain village and townlets in Southwest China as the object of study; this provides good cases for analyzing parallel coupling mechanism of the duality structure system between economic growth and spatial expansion and discussing the path selection of spatial economic growth of mountain village and towns with multiple constraints. The research results can provide quantitative references for the spatial and economic development paths of mountain villages and towns, which is helpful in realizing efficient and high-quality development mode with equal emphasis on spatial and economic benefits for these type of towns.

Keywords: coupling mechanism, geographic information technology, mountainous town, synergetic development, spatial economy

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Authors: S. P. Singh, Priya, Komal Sajwan

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With the increasing spread of organic farming in India, costs, returns, efficiency, and social and environmental sustainability of organic vis-a-vis conventional farming systems have become topics of interest among agriculture scientists, economists, and policy analysts. A study on technical efficiency estimation under these farming systems, particularly in the Ganga River Basin, where the promotion of organic farming is incentivized, can help to understand whether the inputs are utilized to their maximum possible level and what measures can be taken to improve the efficiency. This paper, therefore, analyses the technical efficiency of wheat farms operating under organic and conventional farming systems. The study is based on a primary survey of 600 farms (300 organic ad 300 conventional) conducted in 2021 in two districts located in the Middle Ganga River Basin, India. Technical, managerial, and scale efficiencies of individual farms are estimated by applying the data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology. The per hectare value of wheat production is taken as an output variable, and values of seeds, human labour, machine cost, plant nutrients, farm yard manure (FYM), plant protection, and irrigation charges are considered input variables for estimating the farm-level efficiencies. The post-DEA analysis is conducted using the Tobit regression model to know the efficiency determining factors. The results show that technical efficiency is significantly higher in conventional than organic farming systems due to a higher gap in scale efficiency than managerial efficiency. Further, 9.8% conventional and only 1.0% organic farms are found operating at the most productive scale size (MPSS), and 99% organic and 81% conventional farms at IRS. Organic farms perform well in managerial efficiency, but their technical efficiency is lower than conventional farms, mainly due to their relatively lower scale size. The paper suggests that technical efficiency in organic wheat can be increased by upscaling the farm size by incentivizing group/collective farming in clusters.

Keywords: organic, conventional, technical efficiency, determinants, DEA, Tobit regression

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Authors: Kefi Rahmadio, Filipus Armando Ginting, Richard Nainggolan

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This research shows the formation of the West Buru Basin and the potential utilization of this West Buru Basin as a geothermal potential. The research area is West Buru Island which is part of the West Buru Basin. The island is located in Maluku Province, with its capital city named Namlea. The island is divided into 10 districts, namely District Kepalamadan, Airbuaya District, Wapelau District, Namlea District, Waeapo District, Batabual District, Namrole District, Waesama District, Leksula District, and Ambalau District. The formation in this basin is Permian-Quarter. They start from the Formation Ghegan, Dalan Formation, Mefa Formation, Kuma Formation, Waeken Formation, Wakatin Formation, Ftau Formation and Leko Formation. These formations are composing this West Buru Basin. Determination of prospect area in the geothermal area with preliminary investigation stage through observation of manifestation, topographic shape and structure are found around prospect area. This is done because there is no data of earth that support the determination of prospect area more accurately. In Waepo area, electric power generated based on field observation and structural analysis, geothermal area of ​Waeapo was approximately 6 km², with reference to the SNI 'Classification of Geothermal Potential' (No.03-5012-1999), an area of ​​1 km² is assumed to be 12.5 MWe. The speculative potential of this area is (Q) = 6 x 12.5 MWe = 75 MWe. In the Bata Bual area, the geothermal prospect projected 4 km², the speculative potential of the Bata Bual area is worth (Q) = 4 x 12.5 MWe = 50 MWe. In Kepala Madan area, based on the estimation of manifestation area, there is a wide area of ​​prospect in Kepala Madan area about 4 km². The geothermal energy potential of the speculative level in Kepala Madan district is (Q) = 4 x 12.5 MWe = 50 MWe. These three areas are the largest geothermal potential on the island of West Buru. From the above research, it can be concluded that there is potential in West Buru Island. Further exploration is needed to find greater potential. Therefore, researchers want to explain the geothermal potential contained in the West Buru Basin, within the scope of West Buru Island. This potential can be utilized for the community of West Buru Island.

Keywords: West Buru basin, West Buru island, potential, Waepo, Bata Bual, Kepala Madan

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Authors: Daniel Asiamah Ameyaw

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This research attempts to investigate how lecturer evaluation makes a difference in enhancing higher education teaching and learning processes. The research questions to guide this research work states first as, “What are the perspectives on the difference made by evaluating academic teachers in order to enhance higher education teaching and learning processes?” and second, “What are the implications of the findings for Policy and Practice?” Data for this research was collected mainly through interviewing and partly documents review. Data analysis was conducted under the framework of grounded theory. The findings showed that for individual lecturer level, lecturer evaluation provides a continuous improvement of teaching strategies, and serves as source of data for research on teaching. At the individual student level, it enhances students learning process; serving as source of information for course selection by students; and by making students feel recognised in the educational process. At the institutional level, it noted that lecturer evaluation is useful in personnel and management decision making; it assures stakeholders of quality teaching and learning by setting up standards for lecturers; and it enables institutions to identify skill requirement and needs as a basis for organising workshops. Lecturer evaluation is useful at national level in terms of guaranteeing the competencies of graduates who then provide the needed manpower requirement of the nation. Besides, it mentioned that resource allocation to higher educational institution is based largely on quality of the programmes being run by the institution. The researcher concluded, that the findings have implications for policy and practice, therefore, higher education managers are expected to ensure that policy is implemented as planned by policy-makers so that the objectives can successfully be achieved.

Keywords: academic quality, higher education, lecturer evaluation, teaching and learning processes

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Authors: Waqas Ahmed Khan Afridi, Subhas Chandra Mukhopadhyay, Bandita Mainali

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The research paper presents a unique approach to evapotranspiration (ET) prediction using a Support Vector Machine (SVM) learning algorithm. The study leverages real-time sensor node data to develop an accurate and adaptable prediction model, addressing the inherent challenges of traditional ET estimation methods. The integration of the SVM algorithm with real-time sensor node data offers great potential to improve spatial and temporal resolution in ET predictions. In the model development, key input features are measured and computed using mathematical equations such as Penman-Monteith (FAO56) and soil water balance (SWB), which include soil-environmental parameters such as; solar radiation (Rs), air temperature (T), atmospheric pressure (P), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (u2), rain (R), deep percolation (DP), soil temperature (ST), and change in soil moisture (∆SM). The one-year field data are split into combinations of three proportions i.e. train, test, and validation sets. While kernel functions with tuning hyperparameters have been used to train and improve the accuracy of the prediction model with multiple iterations. This paper also outlines the existing methods and the machine learning techniques to determine Evapotranspiration, data collection and preprocessing, model construction, and evaluation metrics, highlighting the significance of SVM in advancing the field of ET prediction. The results demonstrate the robustness and high predictability of the developed model on the basis of performance evaluation metrics (R2, RMSE, MAE). The effectiveness of the proposed model in capturing complex relationships within soil and environmental parameters provide insights into its potential applications for water resource management and hydrological ecosystem.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, FAO56, KNIME, machine learning, RStudio, SVM, sensors

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Authors: Ozan Yavuz Baytemir, Ender Cigeroglu, Gokhan Osman Ozgen

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Vibration is an important issue in the design of various components of aerospace, marine and vehicular applications. In order not to lose the components’ function and operational performance, vibration isolation design involving the optimum isolator properties selection and isolator positioning processes appear to be a critical study. Knowing the growing need for the vibration isolation system design, this paper aims to present two types of software capable of implementing modal analysis, response analysis for both random and harmonic types of excitations, static deflection analysis, Monte Carlo simulations in addition to study of parameter and location optimization for different types of isolation problem scenarios. Investigating the literature, there is no such study developing a software-based tool that is capable of implementing all those analysis, simulation and optimization studies in one platform simultaneously. In this paper, the theoretical system model is generated for a 6-DOF rigid body. The vibration isolation system of any mechanical structure is able to be optimized using hybrid method involving both global search and gradient-based methods. Defining the optimization design variables, different types of optimization scenarios are listed in detail. Being aware of the need for a user friendly vibration isolation problem solver, two types of graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are prepared and verified using a commercial finite element analysis program, Ansys Workbench 14.0. Using the analysis and optimization capabilities of those GUIs, a real application used in an air-platform is also presented as a case study at the end of the paper.

Keywords: hybrid optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, multi-degree-of-freedom system, parameter optimization, location optimization, passive vibration isolation analysis

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Authors: Sung-Jun Yoo, Kazuhide Ito

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In this study, a comprehensive computer simulated person (CSP) that integrates computational human model (virtual manikin) and respiratory tract model (virtual airway), was applied for estimation of indoor environmental quality. Moreover, an inclusive prediction method was established by integrating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis with advanced CSP which is combined with physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, unsteady thermoregulation model for analysis targeting micro-climate around human body and respiratory area with high accuracy. This comprehensive method can estimate not only the contaminant inhalation but also constant interaction in the contaminant transfer between indoor spaces, i.e., a target area for indoor air quality (IAQ) assessment, and respiratory zone for health risk assessment. This study focused on the usage of the CSP as an air/thermal quality sensor in indoors, which means the application of comprehensive model for assessment of IAQ and thermal environmental quality. Demonstrative analysis was performed in order to examine the applicability of the comprehensive model to the heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) control scheme. CSP was located at the center of the simple model room which has dimension of 3m×3m×3m. Formaldehyde which is generated from floor material was assumed as a target contaminant, and flow field, sensible/latent heat and contaminant transfer analysis in indoor space were conducted by using CFD simulation coupled with CSP. In this analysis, thermal comfort was evaluated by thermoregulatory analysis, and respiratory exposure risks represented by adsorption flux/concentration at airway wall surface were estimated by PBPK-CFD hybrid analysis. These Analysis results concerning IAQ and thermal comfort will be fed back to the HVAC control and could be used to find a suitable ventilation rate and energy requirement for air conditioning system.

Keywords: CFD simulation, computer simulated person, HVAC control, indoor environmental quality

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Authors: G. Ultanbekova, Zh. Suleimenova, Zh. Rakhmetova, G. Mombekova, S. Mantieva

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Plant Growth Promoting Rhizobacteria (PGPR) are a group of free-living bacteria that colonize the rhizosphere, enhance plant growth of many cereals and other important agricultural crops and protect plants from disease and abiotic stresses through a wide variety of mechanisms. The use of PGPR has been proven to be an environmentally sound way of increasing crop yields by facilitating plant growth. In the present study, strain improvement of PGPR isolates were carried out by chemical mutagenesis for the improvement of growth and yield of lima bean. Induced mutagenesis is widely used for the selection of microorganisms producing biologically active substances and further improving their activities. Strain improvement is usually done by classical mutagenesis which involves exposing the microbes to chemical or physical mutagens. The strains of Pseudomonas putida 4/1, Azotobacter chroococcum Р-29 and Bacillus subtilis were subjected to mutation process for strain improvement by treatment with a chemical agent (sodium nitrite) to cause mutation and were observed for its consequent action on the seeds germination and plant growth of lima bean (Phaseolus lunatus). Bacterial mutant strains of Pseudomonas putida M-1, Azotobacter chroococcum M-1 and Bacillus subtilis M-1, treated with sodium nitrite in the concentration of 5 mg/ml for 120 min, were found effective to enhance the germination of lima bean seeds compared to parent strains. Moreover, treatment of the lima bean seeds with a mutant strain of Bacillus subtilis M-1 had a significant stimulation effect on plant growth. The length of the stems and roots of lima bean treated with Bacillus subtilis M-1 increased significantly in comparison with parent strain in 1.6 and 1.3 times, respectively.

Keywords: chemical mutagenesis, germination, kidney bean, plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR)

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Authors: Rashmi Tomar, A. Srinivasan, Nayan K. Mohanty, Arun K. Jain

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Phthalates have been used as additives in industrial products since the 1930s, and are universally considered to be ubiquitous environmental contaminants. The general population is exposed to phthalates through consumer products, as well as diet and medical treatments. Animal studies showing the existence of an association between some phthalates and testicular toxicity have generated public and scientific concern about the potential adverse effects of environmental changes on male reproductive health. Unprecedented declines in fertility rates and semen quality have been reported during the last half of the 20th century in developed countries and increasing interest exists on the potential relationship between exposure to environmental contaminants, including phthalates, and human male reproductive health Studies. Phthalates may be associated with altered endocrine function and adverse effects on male reproductive development and function, but human studies are limited. The aim of the present study was detection of phthalate compounds, estimation of their metabolites in infertile & fertile male. Blood and urine samples were collected from 150 infertile patients & 75 fertile volunteers recruited through Department of Urology, Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi. Blood have been collected in separate glass tubes from the antecubital vein of the patients, serum have been separate and estimate the phthalate level in serum samples by Gas Chromatography / Mass Spectrometry using NIOSH / OSHA detailed protocol. Urine of Infertile & Fertile Subjects was collected & extracted using solid phase extraction method, analysis by HPLC. In conclusion, to the best of our knowledge the present study based on human is first to show the presence of phthalate in human serum samples and their metabolites in urine samples. Significant differences were observed between several phthalates in infertile and fertile healthy individuals.

Keywords: Gas Chromatography, HPLC, male infertility, phthalates, serum, toxicity, urine

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Authors: Mostafa Mjahed

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This paper concerns the control of a nonlinear system using two different methods, reference model and genetic algorithm. The quadcopter is a nonlinear unstable system, which is a part of aerial robots. It is constituted by four rotors placed at the end of a cross. The center of this cross is occupied by the control circuit. Its motions are governed by six degrees of freedom: three rotations around 3 axes (roll, pitch and yaw) and the three spatial translations. The control of such system is complex, because of nonlinearity of its dynamic representation and the number of parameters, which it involves. Numerous studies have been developed to model and stabilize such systems. The classical PID and LQ correction methods are widely used. If the latter represent the advantage to be simple because they are linear, they reveal the drawback to require the presence of a linear model to synthesize. It also implies the complexity of the established laws of command because the latter must be widened on all the domain of flight of these quadcopter. Note that, if the classical design methods are widely used to control aeronautical systems, the Artificial Intelligence methods as genetic algorithms technique receives little attention. In this paper, we suggest comparing two PID design methods. Firstly, the parameters of the PID are calculated according to the reference model. In a second phase, these parameters are established using genetic algorithms. By reference model, we mean that the corrected system behaves according to a reference system, imposed by some specifications: settling time, zero overshoot etc. Inspired from the natural evolution of Darwin's theory advocating the survival of the best, John Holland developed this evolutionary algorithm. Genetic algorithm (GA) possesses three basic operators: selection, crossover and mutation. We start iterations with an initial population. Each member of this population is evaluated through a fitness function. Our purpose is to correct the behavior of the quadcopter around three axes (roll, pitch and yaw) with 3 PD controllers. For the altitude, we adopt a PID controller.

Keywords: quadcopter, genetic algorithm, PID, fitness, model, control, nonlinear system

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Authors: Saif Obaid Alkaabi, Nabil Ayad

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Governments constantly seek to offer faster, more secure, efficient and effective services for their citizens. Recent changes and developments to communication services and technologies, mainly due the Internet, have led to immense improvements in the way governments of advanced countries carry out their interior operations Therefore, advances in e-government services have been broadly adopted and used in various developed countries, as well as being adapted to developing countries. The implementation of advances depends on the utilization of the most innovative structures of data techniques, mainly in web dependent applications, to enhance the main functions of governments. These functions, in turn, have spread to mobile and wireless techniques, generating a new advanced direction called m-government. This paper discusses a selection of available m-government applications and several business modules and frameworks in various fields. Practically, the m-government models, techniques and methods have become the improved version of e-government. M-government offers the potential for applications which will work better, providing citizens with services utilizing mobile communication and data models incorporating several government entities. Developing countries can benefit greatly from this innovation due to the fact that a large percentage of their population is young and can adapt to new technology and to the fact that mobile computing devices are more affordable. The use of models of mobile transactions encourages effective participation through the use of mobile portals by businesses, various organizations, and individual citizens. Although the application of m-government has great potential, it does have major limitations. The limitations include: the implementation of wireless networks and relative communications, the encouragement of mobile diffusion, the administration of complicated tasks concerning the protection of security (including the ability to offer privacy for information), and the management of the legal issues concerning mobile applications and the utilization of services.

Keywords: e-government, m-government, system dependability, system security, trust

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Authors: Veerpal Kaur

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The present paper aims at investigating the role of dynamic externalities of agglomeration in the regional productivity growth of manufacturing sector in India and China. Taking 2-digit level manufacturing sector data of states and provinces of India and China respectively for the period of 1998-99 to 2011-12, this paper examines the effect of dynamic externalities namely – Marshall-Arrow-Romer (MAR) specialization externalities, Jacobs’s diversity externalities, and Porter’s competition externalities on regional total factor productivity growth (TFPG) of manufacturing sector in both economies. Regressions have been carried on pooled data for all 2-digit manufacturing industries for India and China separately. The estimation of Panel has been based on a fixed effect by sector model. The results of econometric exercise show that labour-intensive industries in Indian regional manufacturing benefit from diversity externalities and capital intensive industries gain more from specialization in terms of TFPG. In China, diversity externalities and competition externalities hold better prospectus for regional TFPG in both labour intensive and capital intensive industries. But if we look at results for coastal and non-coastal region separately, specialization tends to assert a positive effect on TFPG in coastal regions whereas it has a negative effect on TFPG of coastal regions. Competition externalities put a negative effect on TFPG of non-coastal regions whereas it has a positive effect on TFPG of coastal regions. Diversity externalities made a positive contribution to TFPG in both coastal and non-coastal regions. So the results of the study postulate that the importance of dynamic externalities should not be examined by pooling all industries and all regions together. This could hold differential implications for region specific and industry-specific policy formulation. Other important variables explaining regional level TFPG in both India and China have been the availability of infrastructure, level of competitiveness, foreign direct investment, exports and geographical location of the region (especially in China).

Keywords: China, dynamic externalities, India, manufacturing, productivity

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: Ping Ren, Mao Wen, Kan Zhang, Weitao Zheng

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The improvement of comprehensive properties including hardness, toughness, wear, and corrosion resistance in the transition metal carbides/nitrides TMCN films, especially avoiding the trade-off between hardness and toughness, is strongly required to adapt to various applications. Although incorporating ductile metal DM phase into the TMCN via thermally-induced phase separation has been emerged as an effective approach to toughen TMCN-based films, the DM is just limited to some soft ductile metal (i.e. Cu, Ag, Au immiscibility with the TMCN. Moreover, hardness is highly sensitive to soft DM content and can be significantly worsened. Hence, a novel preparation method should be attempted to broaden the DM selection and assemble much more ordered nanocomposite structure for improving the comprehensive properties. Here, we provide a new strategy, by activating solid-state dewetting during layered deposition, to accomplish the self-assembly of ordered TaC@Ta core-shell-like nanocomposite film consisting of TaC nanocrystalline encapsulated with thin pseudocrystal Ta tissue. That results in the superhard (~45.1 GPa) dominated by Orowan strengthening mechanism and high toughness attributed to indenter-induced phase transformation from the pseudocrystal to body-centered cubic Ta, together with the drastically enhanced wear and corrosion resistance. Furthermore, very thin pseudocrystal Ta encapsulated layer (~1.5 nm) in the TaC@Ta core-shell-like structure helps for promoting the formation of lubricious TaOₓ Magnéli phase during sliding, thereby further dropping the coefficient of friction. Apparently, solid-state dewetting may provide a new route to construct ordered TMC(N)@TM core-shell-like nanocomposite capable of combining superhard, high toughness, low friction, superior wear with corrosion resistance.

Keywords: corrosion, nanocomposite film, solid-state dewetting, tribology

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Authors: Emejeamara Francis

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The future of potentials wind energy applications within suburban/urban areas are currently faced with various problems. These include insufficient assessment of urban wind resource, and the effectiveness of commercial gust control solutions as well as unavailability of effective and cheaper valuable tools for scoping the potentials of urban wind applications within built-up environments. In order to achieve effective assessment of the potentials of urban wind installations, an estimation of the total energy that would be available to them were effective control systems to be used, and evaluating the potential power to be generated by the wind system is required. This paper presents a methodology of predicting the power generated by a wind system operating within an urban wind resource. This method was developed by using high temporal resolution wind measurements from eight potential sites within the urban and suburban environment as inputs to a vertical axis wind turbine multiple stream tube model. A relationship between the unsteady performance coefficient obtained from the stream tube model results and turbulence intensity was demonstrated. Hence, an analytical methodology for estimating the unsteady power coefficient at a potential turbine site is proposed. This is combined with analytical models that were developed to predict the wind speed and the excess energy (EEC) available in estimating the potential power generated by wind systems at different heights within a built environment. Estimates of turbulence intensities, wind speed, EEC and turbine performance based on the current methodology allow a more complete assessment of available wind resource and potential urban wind projects. This methodology is applied to four major UK cities namely Leeds, Manchester, London and Edinburgh and the potential to map the turbine performance at different heights within a typical urban city is demonstrated.

Keywords: small-scale wind, turbine power, urban wind energy, turbulence intensity, excess energy content

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Authors: Parimalakrishnan Sundararjan, Madheswaran Murugan, Dhanya Dharman, Yatindra Kumar, Sudhir Singh Gangwar, Guru Prasad Mohanta

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Antibiotic resistance AR is a global issue, India started to redress the issues of antibiotic resistance late and it plans to have: active surveillance of microbial resistance and promote appropriate use of antibiotics. The present study attempted to achieve appropriate use of antibiotics through pharmacists’ intervention at practice point. In a quasi-experimental prospective cohort study, the cases with bacteremia from four hospitals were identified during 2015 and 2016 for intervention. The pharmacists centered intervention: active screening of each prescription and comparing with the selection of antibiotics with susceptibility of the bacteria. Wherever irrationality noticed, it was brought to the notice of the treating physician for making changes. There were two groups: intervention group and control group without intervention. The active screening and intervention in 915 patients has reduced therapeutic regimen time in patients with bacteremia. The intervention group showed the decreased duration of hospital stay 3.4 days from 5.1 days. Further, multivariate modeling of patients who were in control group showed that patients in the intervention group had a significant decrease in both duration of hospital stay and infection-related mortality. Unlike developed countries, pharmacists are not active partners in patient care in India. This unique attempt of pharmacist’ invention was planned in consultation with hospital authorities which proved beneficial in terms of reducing the duration of treatment, hospital stay, and infection-related mortality. This establishes the need for a collaborative decision making among the health workforce in patient care at least for promoting rational use of antibiotics, an attempt to combat resistance.

Keywords: antibiotics resistance, intervention, bacteremia, multivariate modeling

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Authors: Sujit Kumar Sinha, Madan Lal Regar

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Sewing thread plays an important role in the transformation of a two-dimensional fabric into a three-dimensional garment. The interaction of the sewing thread with the fabric at the seam not only influences the appearance of a garment but also its performance. Careful selection of sewing thread and associated parameters can only help in improvement. Over the years, ring spinning has been dominating the yarn market. In the pursuit of improvement to challenge its dominance alternative technology has also been developed. But no real challenge has been posed by the any of the developed spinning systems. Eli-Twist spinning system can be a new method of yarn manufacture to provide a product with improved mechanical and physical properties with respect to the conventional ring spun yarn. The system, patented by Suessen has gained considerable attention in the recent times. The process of produces a two-ply compact yarn with improved fiber utilization. It produces a novel structure combining all advantages of condensing and doubling. In the present study, sewing threads of three different counts each from cotton, polyester and polyester/cotton (50/50) blend were produced on a ring and Eli-Twist systems. A twist multiplier of 4.2 was used to produce all the yarns. A comparison of hairiness, tensile strength and coefficient of friction with conventional ring yarn was made. Eli-Twist yarn has shown better frictional characteristics, better tensile strength and less hairiness. The performance of the Eli-Twist sewing thread has also been found to be better than the conventional 2-ply sewing thread. The performance was estimated through seam strength, seam elongation and seam efficiency of sewn fabric. Eli-Twist sewing thread has shown less friction, less hairiness, and higher tensile strength. Eli-Twist sewing thread resulted in better seam characteristics in comparison to conventional 2-ply sewing thread.

Keywords: ring spun yarn, Eli-Twist yarn, sewing thread, seam strength, seam elongation, seam efficiency

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Authors: Roopa Singh, Anurag Singh, Ajay

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Agriculture contributes a major share in the national economy of India. A major portion of Indian economy (about 70%) depends upon agriculture as it forms the main source of income. About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agricultural activity which involves 65-75% of total population of India. The given work deals with the Fast moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industries and their inventories which use agricultural produce as their raw material or input for their final product. Since the beginning of inventory practices, many developments took place which can be categorised into three phases, based on the review of various works. The first phase is related with development and utilization of Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model and methods for optimizing costs and profits. Second phase deals with inventory optimization method, with the purpose of balancing capital investment constraints and service level goals. The third and recent phase has merged inventory control with electrical control theory. Maintenance of inventory is considered negative, as a large amount of capital is blocked especially in mechanical and electrical industries. But the case is different in food processing and agro-based industries and their inventories due to cyclic variation in the cost of raw materials of such industries which is the reason for selection of these industries in the mentioned work. The application of electrical control theory in inventory control makes the decision-making highly instantaneous for FMCG industries without loss in their proposed profits, which happened earlier during first and second phases, mainly due to late implementation of decision. The work also replaces various inventories and work-in-progress (WIP) related errors with their monetary values, so that the decision-making is fully target-oriented.

Keywords: control theory, inventory control, manufacturing sector, EOQ, feedback, FMCG sector

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Authors: Ezat Vahidian, Babak Eshrati

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Introduction: Elder abuse, a very complex issue with diverse definitions and names, has been very slow to capture the public eye and public policy since it is manifested at many levels. It requires the involvement of different types of professionals. While elder abuse is not a new phenomenon, the speed of population ageing world-wide is likely to lead to an increase in its incidence and prevalence. Elder abuse has devastating consequences for older persons such as poor quality of life, psychological distress, and loss of property and security. It is also associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Elder abuse is a problem that manifests itself in both rich and poor countries and at all levels of society. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the prevalence of elder abuse and effects of social factor on it in Markazi Province. Materials and methods: The society of the study was all of the elders in Markazi Province that were available by geographical address in the table of rural and urban household societies. The study was cross sectional and multi phases in sampling the first one was classification according rural and urban area and the second one was cluster sampling with equal cluster. Estimation of samples were 472 persons and increased by design effect to 1110 persons. Collection data was done by questionnaire and analyzed by SPSS and chi 2 exam. Results: This study showed 70 persons were abused (42/8% male and 57/2% female) mean of ages was 74/7 years. 64% were marred and 31% were widows. There were not any significant meaningful association between elder abuse and area of living (pv=0.299),occupation (p.v=0.104), education (pv=0.358) and age (P.value=0.104) there were significant meaningful association between physical impairment (pv=0.08), and movement impairment (P.value=0.008). Conclusion: Results verify that maltreatment occurred in the aged persons. Analysis of data indicated that elder abuse exist in every socioeconomic group with any context of education in urban area and rural area and in men and women. Prevalence of elder abuse was 6.3% (70 persons) that verify the data of developed countries with limited sample.

Keywords: elder abuse, education, occupation, area of living

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