Search results for: squared prediction risk

Authors: Ali H.Alyami, Hussam Darraj, Faisal Hakami, Mohammed Awaf, Sulaiman Hamdi, Nawaf Bakri, Abdulaziz Saber, Khalid Hakami, Almuhanad Alyami, Mohammed khashab

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Introduction: Adolescents frequently self-report pain, according to epidemiological research. The knee is one of the sites where the pain is most common. One of the main factors contributing to the number of years people spend disabled and having substantial personal, societal, and economic burdens globally are musculoskeletal disorders. Adolescents may have knee pain due to an abrupt, traumatic injury or an insidious, slowly building onset that neither the adolescent nor the parent is aware of. Objectives: The present study’s authors aimed to estimate the prevalence of knee pain in Saudi adolescents. Methods: This cross-sectional survey, carried out from June to November 2022, included 676 adolescents ages 10 to 18. Data are presented as frequencies and percentages for categorical variables. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare means between groups, while the chi-square test was used for the comparison of categorical variables. Statistical significance was set at P< 0.05.Result: Adolescents were invited to take part in the study. 57.5% were girls, and 42.5% were males,68.8% were 676 aged between 15 and 18. The prevalence of knee pain was considerably high among females (26%), while it was 19.2% among males. Moreover, age was a significant predictor for knee pain; also BMI was significant for knee pain. Conclusion: Our study noted a high rate of knee pain among adolescents, so we need to raise awareness about risk factors. Adolescent knee pain can be prevented with conservative methods and some minor lifestyle/activity modifications.

Keywords: knee pain, prevalence of knee pain, exercise training, physical activity

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Authors: Vitalijs Lusis, Andrejs Krasnikovs

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Fiber reinforced concrete is important material for load bearing structural elements. Usually fibers are homogeneously distributed in a concrete body having arbitrary spatial orientations. At the same time, in many situations, fiber concrete with oriented fibers is more optimal. Is obvious, that is possible to create constructions with oriented short fibers in them, in different ways. Present research is devoted to one of such approaches- fiber reinforced concrete prisms having dimensions 100 mm×100 mm×400 mm with layers of non-homogeneously distributed fibers inside them were fabricated. Simultaneously prisms with homogeneously dispersed fibers were produced for reference as well. Prisms were tested under four point bending conditions. During the tests vertical deflection at the center of every prism and crack opening were measured (using linear displacements transducers in real timescale). Prediction results were discussed.

Keywords: fiber reinforced concrete, 4-point bending, steel fiber, construction engineering

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Authors: F. Louati, H. Trabelsi, M. Jamei

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Desiccation cracks following drainage-humidification cycles. With water loss, mainly due to evaporation, suction in the soil increases, producing volumetric shrinkage and tensile stress. When the tensile stress reaches tensile strength, the soil cracks. Desiccation cracks networks can directly control soil hydraulic properties. The aim of this study was for quantifying the hydraulic properties for examples the water retention curve, the saturated hydraulic conductivity, the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity function, the shrinkage dynamics in Tibar soil- clay soil in the Northern of Tunisia. Then a numerical simulation of unsaturated hydraulic properties for a crack network has been attempted. The finite elements code ‘CODE_BRIGHT’ can be used to follow the hydraulic distribution in cracked porous media.

Keywords: desiccation, cracks, permeability, unsaturated hydraulic flow, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Nadia Belu, Laurenţiu Mihai Ionescu, Agnieszka Misztal

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The automotive industry is one of the most important industries in the world that concerns not only the economy, but also the world culture. In the present financial and economic context, this field faces new challenges posed by the current crisis, companies must maintain product quality, deliver on time and at a competitive price in order to achieve customer satisfaction. Two of the most recommended techniques of quality management by specific standards of the automotive industry, in the product development, are Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Control Plan. FMEA is a methodology for risk management and quality improvement aimed at identifying potential causes of failure of products and processes, their quantification by risk assessment, ranking of the problems identified according to their importance, to the determination and implementation of corrective actions related. The companies use Control Plans realized using the results from FMEA to evaluate a process or product for strengths and weaknesses and to prevent problems before they occur. The Control Plans represent written descriptions of the systems used to control and minimize product and process variation. In addition Control Plans specify the process monitoring and control methods (for example Special Controls) used to control Special Characteristics. In this paper we propose a computer-aided solution with Genetic Algorithms in order to reduce the drafting of reports: FMEA analysis and Control Plan required in the manufacture of the product launch and improved knowledge development teams for future projects. The solution allows to the design team to introduce data entry required to FMEA. The actual analysis is performed using Genetic Algorithms to find optimum between RPN risk factor and cost of production. A feature of Genetic Algorithms is that they are used as a means of finding solutions for multi criteria optimization problems. In our case, along with three specific FMEA risk factors is considered and reduce production cost. Analysis tool will generate final reports for all FMEA processes. The data obtained in FMEA reports are automatically integrated with other entered parameters in Control Plan. Implementation of the solution is in the form of an application running in an intranet on two servers: one containing analysis and plan generation engine and the other containing the database where the initial parameters and results are stored. The results can then be used as starting solutions in the synthesis of other projects. The solution was applied to welding processes, laser cutting and bending to manufacture chassis for buses. Advantages of the solution are efficient elaboration of documents in the current project by automatically generating reports FMEA and Control Plan using multiple criteria optimization of production and build a solid knowledge base for future projects. The solution which we propose is a cheap alternative to other solutions on the market using Open Source tools in implementation.

Keywords: automotive industry, FMEA, control plan, automotive technology

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Authors: Memory Ranga, Phillip Pretorious

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The South African Government has invested a lot of money in Information Technology Governance (ITG) within the Government departments. The ITG framework was spearheaded by the Department of Public Service and Administration (DPSA). This led to the development of a governing ITG DPSA framework and later the Government Wide Enterprise Architecture (GWEA) Framework for assisting the departments to implement ITG. In addition to this, the government departments have adopted the Information Systems Audit and Control Association (ISACA) Control Objectives for Information and Related Technology (COBIT) for ITG processes. Despite all these available frameworks, departments fail to fully capitalise and improve the ITG processes mainly as these are too generic and difficult to apply for specific governance needs. There has been less research done to evaluate the progress on ITG initiatives within the government departments. This paper aims to evaluate the existing ITG frameworks within selected government departments in South Africa. A quantitative research approach was used in this study. Data was collected through an online questionnaire targeting ICT Managers and Directors from government departments. The study is undertaken within a case study and only the Eastern Cape Province was selected for the research. Document review mainly on ITG framework and best practices was also used. Data was analysed using the Google Analytic tools and SPSS. A one–sample Chi-Squared Test was used to verity the evaluation findings. Findings show that there is evidence that the current guiding National governance framework (DPSA) is out dated and does not accommodate the new changes in other governance frameworks. The Eastern Cape Government Departments have spent huge amount of money on ITG but not yet able to identify the benefits of the ITG initiatives. The guiding framework is rigid and does to address some of the departmental needs making it difficult to be flexible and apply the DPSA framework. Furthermore, despite the large budget on ITG, the departments still find themselves with many challenges and unable to improve some of the processes and services. All the engaged Eastern Cape departments have adopted the COBIT framework, but none has been conducting COBIT maturity Assessment which is a functionality of COBIT. There is evidence of too many the ITG frameworks and underutilisation of these frameworks. The study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the ITG frameworks that have been adopted by the South African Government Departments in the Eastern Cape Province. The evaluation guides and recommends the government departments to rethink and adopt ITG frameworks that could be customised to accommodate their needs. The adoption and application of ITG by government departments should assist in better governance and service delivery to the citizens.

Keywords: information technology governance, COBIT, evaluate, framework, governance, DPSA framework

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Authors: Reda Mankbadi

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In this paper we explore the use of a second-order unstructured-grid, finite-volume code for direct noise prediction. We consider a Mach 1.5 jet impinging on a perpendicular flat plate. Hybrid LES-RANS simulations are used to calculate directly both the flow field and the radiated sound. The ANSYS Fluent commercial code is utilized for the calculations. The acoustic field is obtained directly from the simulations and is compared with the integral approach of Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FWH). Results indicate the existence of a preferred radiation angle. The spectrum obtained is in good agreement with observations. This points out to the possibility of handling the effects of complicated geometries on noise radiation by using unstructured second-orders codes.

Keywords: CFD, Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FWH), imping jet, ANSYS fluent commercial code, hybrid LES-RANS simulations

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Authors: Debjit Ray

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Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and recombination leads to the emergence of bacterial antibiotic resistance and pathogenic traits. HGT events can be identified by comparing a large number of fully sequenced genomes across a species or genus, define the phylogenetic range of HGT, and find potential sources of new resistance genes. In-depth comparative phylogenomics can also identify subtle genome or plasmid structural changes or mutations associated with phenotypic changes. Comparative phylogenomics requires that accurately sequenced, complete and properly annotated genomes of the organism. Assembling closed genomes requires additional mate-pair reads or “long read” sequencing data to accompany short-read paired-end data. To bring down the cost and time required of producing assembled genomes and annotating genome features that inform drug resistance and pathogenicity, we are analyzing the performance for genome assembly of data from the Illumina NextSeq, which has faster throughput than the Illumina HiSeq (~1-2 days versus ~1 week), and shorter reads (150bp paired-end versus 300bp paired end) but higher capacity (150-400M reads per run versus ~5-15M) compared to the Illumina MiSeq. Bioinformatics improvements are also needed to make rapid, routine production of complete genomes a reality. Modern assemblers such as SPAdes 3.6.0 running on a standard Linux blade are capable in a few hours of converting mixes of reads from different library preps into high-quality assemblies with only a few gaps. Remaining breaks in scaffolds are generally due to repeats (e.g., rRNA genes) are addressed by our software for gap closure techniques, that avoid custom PCR or targeted sequencing. Our goal is to improve the understanding of emergence of pathogenesis using sequencing, comparative genomics, and machine learning analysis of ~1000 pathogen genomes. Machine learning algorithms will be used to digest the diverse features (change in virulence genes, recombination, horizontal gene transfer, patient diagnostics). Temporal data and evolutionary models can thus determine whether the origin of a particular isolate is likely to have been from the environment (could it have evolved from previous isolates). It can be useful for comparing differences in virulence along or across the tree. More intriguing, it can test whether there is a direction to virulence strength. This would open new avenues in the prediction of uncharacterized clinical bugs and multidrug resistance evolution and pathogen emergence.

Keywords: genomics, pathogens, genome assembly, superbugs

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Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

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Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: C. T. Eze, I. N. E. Onwurah

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An important hydrogeologic problem in areas of high faults formations is high environmental health hazard occasioned by microbial and heavy metals contamination of ground waters. Consequently, we examined the microbial load and heavy metals concentration of hospital wastewater discharged into the environment at Park Lane General Hospital Enugu Urban, Nigeria. The microbial counts, characteristics and frequency of occurrences of the isolated microorganisms were determined by cultural, morphological and biochemical characteristics using established procedure while the varying concentrations of the identified heavy metals were determined using the spectrophotometric method. The microbiological analyses showed a mean total aerobic bacteria counts from 13.7 ± 0.65 × 107 to 22.8 ± 1.14 ×1010 CFU/ml, mean total anaerobic bacteria counts from 6.0 ± 1.6 × 103 to 1.7 ± 0.41 ×104 CFU/ml and mean total fungal counts from 0 ± 0 to 2.3 ± 0.16 × 105 CFU/ml. The isolated micro-organisms which included both pathogenic and non-pathogenic organisms were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella typhi, Bacillus subtilis, Proteus vulgaris, Klesbsiella pneumonia and bacteriodes sp. The only fungal isolate was Candida albican. The heavy metals identified in the leachate were Arsenic, Cadmium, Lead, Mercury and Chromium and their concentrations ranged from 0.003 ± 0.00082 to 0.14 ± 0.0082 mg/l. These values were above WHO permissible limits while others fall within the limits. Therefore, hospital waste water can pose the environmental health risk when not properly treated before discharge, especially in geologic formations with high fault formations.

Keywords: bacterial isolates, fungal isolates, heavy metals, hospital wastewater, microbial counts

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: S. Bennoud, M. Zergoug

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The numerical simulation of electromagnetic interactions is still a challenging problem, especially in problems that result in fully three dimensional mathematical models. The goal of this work is to use mathematical modeling to characterize the reliability and capacity of eddy current technique to detect and characterize defects embedded in aeronautical in-service pieces. The finite element method is used for describing the eddy current technique in a mathematical model by the prediction of the eddy current interaction with defects. However, this model is an approximation of the full Maxwell equations. In this study, the analysis of the problem is based on a three dimensional finite element model that computes directly the electromagnetic field distortions due to defects.

Keywords: eddy current, finite element method, non destructive testing, numerical simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Syeda Fahria Hoque Mimmi, Aparna Islam

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Genetically engineered (GE) plants are the need of time for increased demand for food. A complete set of regulations need to be followed from the development of a GE plant to its release into the environment. The whole regulation system is categorized into separate stages for maintaining the proper biosafety. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is one of such crucial stages in the whole process. ERA identifies potential risks and their impacts through science-based evaluation where it is done in a case-by-case study. All the countries which deal with GE plants follow specific guidelines to conduct a successful ERA. In this study, ERA guidelines of 4 developing and 4 developed countries, including Bangladesh, were compared. ERA guidelines of countries such as India, Canada, Australia, the European Union, Argentina, Brazil, and the US were considered as a model to conduct the comparison study with Bangladesh. Initially, ten parameters were detected to compare the required data and information among all the guidelines. Surprisingly, an adequate amount of data and information requirements (e.g., if the intended modification/new traits of interest has been achieved or not, the growth habit of GE plants, consequences of any potential gene flow upon the cultivation of GE plants to sexually compatible plant species, potential adverse effects on the human health, etc.) matched between all the countries. However, a few differences in data requirement (e.g., agronomic conventions of non-transformed plants, applicants should clearly describe experimental procedures followed, etc.) were also observed in the study. Moreover, it was found that only a few countries provide instructions on the quality of the data used for ERA. If these similarities are recognized in a more framed manner, then the approval pathway of GE plants can be shared.

Keywords: GE plants, ERA, harmonization, ERA guidelines, Information and data requirements

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Sudson Sirivaidyapong, Ratthanan Sathienbumrungkit, Nongnapas Ruangpet, Nattanun Uaprayoon, Chawisa Wejjakul

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Many factors initiate mammary gland tumor in female dogs such as age, breed, sex, estrous cycle, birth control and pseudopregnancy. Those factors are mostly associated with canine sex hormone. In this study, questionnaires and direct interviews were used to collect information from owners of female dogs that had been diagnosed as mammary tumors at our veterinary teaching hospital, during January 2015 to October 2016 to compare the prevalence of mammary tumor between nulliparous and multiparous female dogs. 200 dogs (from all 212 mammary tumor patients, some were excluded because of inadequate information) were included in the study, 72.5% were nulliparous and 27.5% were multiparous. The results revealed that breed, age, birth control age and birth control methods were not different in both groups; most dogs in both groups were various purebreds, geriatric age, and low incidence of hormonal contraception while 100% of multiparous dogs and 83.7% of nulliparous dogs had been neutered at over two years old. The significant differences between two groups were the frequency of pseudopregnancy and estrus which were much higher in nulliparous female dogs. It can be concluded from our study that nulliparous dogs may be more likely at higher risk of mammary tumor compared to multiparous dogs from various factors especially, the frequency of estrus and the occurrence of pseudopregnancy which related to more times of sex hormonal contact. This study was a preliminary data for further studies to determine the other risk factors of mammary gland tumors in dogs, and to our knowledge, it is the first report on a significantly higher prevalence of mammary tumor in nulliparous female dogs than that in multiparous dogs. This finding corresponds with the study of breast cancer in women but may be from different causes and factors due to the differences in estrous physiology.

Keywords: canine, female dogs, nulliparous, multiparous, mammary tumor, prevalence

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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The study presents an overview of the many uses and approaches for estimating out-of-sequence thrust movement in earthquake mitigation. The study investigates how knowing and forecasting thrust movement during seismic occurrences might assist to effective earthquake mitigation measures. The review begins by discussing out-of-sequence thrust movement and its importance in earthquake mitigation strategies. It explores how typical techniques of estimating thrust movement may not capture the full complexity of seismic occurrences and emphasizes the benefits of include out-of-sequence data in the analysis. A thorough review of existing research and studies on out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates for earthquake mitigation. The study demonstrates how to estimate out-of-sequence thrust movement using multiple data sources such as GPS measurements, satellite imagery, and seismic recordings. The study also examines the use of out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates in earthquake mitigation measures. It investigates how precise calculation of thrust movement may help improve structural design, analyse infrastructure risk, and develop early warning systems. The potential advantages of using out-of-sequence data in these applications to improve the efficiency of earthquake mitigation techniques. The difficulties and limits of estimating out-of-sequence thrust movement for earthquake mitigation. It addresses data quality difficulties, modelling uncertainties, and computational complications. To address these obstacles and increase the accuracy and reliability of out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates, the authors recommend topics for additional study and improvement. The study is a helpful resource for seismic monitoring and earthquake risk assessment researchers, engineers, and policymakers, supporting innovations in earthquake mitigation measures based on a better knowledge of thrust movement dynamics.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, satellite imagery, seismic recordings, GPS measurements

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Elspeth McInnes

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Research design is central to ethical research. Discriminatory research design is a key risk for researchers examining diverse cultural groups without conscious commitment to anti-discrimination values or knowledge of their culture. Culturally discriminatory research design is defined here as research proceeding from negative assumptions about people on the basis of race, colour, ethnicity, nationality or religion. Such discrimination can be direct or indirect. Direct discrimination is the uncritical mobilization of dominant group negative stereotypes of cultural minorities. Indirect discrimination is the examination of policies or programs grounded in dominant culture negative stereotypes that have been uncritically accepted by the researchers. This paper draws on anonymized elements of planned research projects and considers both direct and indirect cultural discrimination in research design and the responsibilities of ethics committees. Human research ethics committees provide a point of scrutiny with responsibility to alert researchers to risks of basing research on negative cultural stereotypes, as well as protecting participants from being subjected to negative discourses about them. This issue has become an increasing concern in a globalizing world of human displacement and migration creating a rise in the presence of minority cultures in host countries. As a nation established through colonization and immigration Australia has a long history of negative cultural stereotypes of Indigenous Australians as well as a legacy of the White Australia policy, which still echoes in attitudes to each wave of non-European immigration. The task of eliminating cultural discrimination in research design is vital to sustaining research integrity and ensuring that research is not used to reinforce or justify cultural discrimination.

Keywords: cultural discrimination, cultural stereotypes, participant risk, research design

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: S. Ghafoori, A. Al-Harbi, B. Al-Ajmi, A. Al-Shaalan, A. Al-Ajmi, M. Ali Juma

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Seismic methods play an important role in the exploration for hydrocarbon reservoirs. However, the success of the method depends strongly on the reliability of the measured or predicted information regarding the velocity of sound in the media. Speed of sound has been used to study the thermodynamic properties of fluids. In this study, experimental data are reported and analyzed on the speed of sound in toluene and octane binary mixture. Three-factor three-level Box-Benhkam design is used to determine the significance of each factor, the synergetic effects of the factors, and the most significant factors on speed of sound. The developed mathematical model and statistical analysis provided a critical analysis of the simultaneous interactive effects of the independent variables indicating that the developed quadratic models were highly accurate and predictive.

Keywords: experimental design, octane, speed of sound, toluene

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Authors: Julide Yildirim, Nadir Ocal

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Even though there are many studies investigating the extent and determinants of poverty, there is paucity of research investigating the issue of energy poverty in Turkey. The aim of this paper is threefold: First to investigate the extend of energy poverty in Turkey by using Household Budget Survey datasets belonging to 2005 - 2016 period. Second, to examine the risk factors for energy poverty. Finally, to assess the impact of social assistance program participation on energy poverty. Existing literature employs alternative methods to measure energy poverty. In this study energy poverty is measured by employing expenditure approach, where people are considered as energy poor if they disburse more than 10 per cent of their income to meet their energy requirements. Empirical results indicate that energy poverty rate is around 20 per cent during the time period under consideration. Since Household Budget Survey panel data is not available for 2005 - 2016 period, a pseudo panel has been constructed. Panel logistic regression method is utilized to determine the risk factors for energy poverty. The empirical results demonstrate that there is a statistically significant impact of work status and education level on energy poverty likelihood. In the final part of the paper the impact of social transfers on energy poverty has been examined by utilizing panel biprobit model, where social transfer participation and energy poverty incidences are jointly modeled. The empirical findings indicate that social transfer program participation reduces energy poverty. The negative association between energy poverty and social transfer program participation is more pronounced in urban areas compared with the rural areas.

Keywords: energy poverty, social transfers, panel data models, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Kirill Filianin, Satu-Pia Reinikainen, Tuomo Sainio

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Frequent measurements of product steam quality create a data overload that becomes more and more difficult to handle. In the current study, plant history data with multiple variables was successfully treated by principal component analysis to detect abnormal process behavior, particularly, in copper solvent extraction. The multivariate model is based on the concentration levels of main process metals recorded by the industrial on-stream x-ray fluorescence analyzer. After mean-centering and normalization of concentration data set, two-dimensional multivariate model under principal component analysis algorithm was constructed. Normal operating conditions were defined through control limits that were assigned to squared score values on x-axis and to residual values on y-axis. 80 percent of the data set were taken as the training set and the multivariate model was tested with the remaining 20 percent of data. Model testing showed successful application of control limits to detect abnormal behavior of copper solvent extraction process as early warnings. Compared to the conventional techniques of analyzing one variable at a time, the proposed model allows to detect on-line a process failure using information from all process variables simultaneously. Complex industrial equipment combined with advanced mathematical tools may be used for on-line monitoring both of process streams’ composition and final product quality. Defining normal operating conditions of the process supports reliable decision making in a process control room. Thus, industrial x-ray fluorescence analyzers equipped with integrated data processing toolbox allows more flexibility in copper plant operation. The additional multivariate process control and monitoring procedures are recommended to apply separately for the major components and for the impurities. Principal component analysis may be utilized not only in control of major elements’ content in process streams, but also for continuous monitoring of plant feed. The proposed approach has a potential in on-line instrumentation providing fast, robust and cheap application with automation abilities.

Keywords: abnormal process behavior, failure detection, principal component analysis, solvent extraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: B. M. M. D. Mendis, L. I. Rajapaksa, P. S. K. Gunathunga, R. C. Fernando, M. Jayalath

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Background / introduction: During the year 2011, 8511 males received services from the sexual health clinics island wide. At present there is only limited information on the risk behaviours of male attendees. Information on risk behaviours related to STI /HIV transmission is helpful in planning suitable prevention interventions. Aim(s)/objectives: The objectives were to determines the sexual partners (other than the marital partner and regular partners) responsible for transmitting STI( Sexually transmitted infections)/ HIV and to understand the practice of safer sex. Methods: Study was a clinic based prospective study conducted for a one year period using an interviewer administered questionnaire. Results: 983 attendees were interviewed. . Mean age was 34.02 years. 75% of the sample had completed GCE O/L (ordinary level examination). Skilled labourers, drivers and forces/police comprised 40% of the sample. 50% admitted sex with a casual female, 12% with a casual male, and 13% with CSW (commercial sex workers) while MSW (male sex workers) exposures were minimal. It was identified that younger males had more contacts with males, and regular female partners while more older males with CSW. Anal sex among males was reported by 11.5%. 20.5% used alcohol frequently and 5.9% used drugs and 1.4% injected. Common STI were genital herpes (7.9%), Non gonococcal urethritis (6.2%) and gonorrhoea (6.2%). Among those who had contacts with FSW 6.7% gonorrhoea (GC), 8.2% non gonococcal urethritis (NGU), 7.5% genital herpes and 0.7% HIV. Non regular partner exposures 3.7% had gonorrhoea, 8.3% NGU, 6.6% genital herpes and 0.8% HIV. Among MSM contacts 10.6% had GC, 4.5% NGU, 5.3% genital herpes, 5.3% secondary syphilis and 0.8% HIV. Only 9.0% used condoms correctly. Friends, doctors, newspapers, internet, and forces were important sources of information on condoms. Non use of condoms were due to worry about satisfaction (24.6%) and faith in the partner (25.6%). Discussion/conclusion: Casual partners for unsafe sex is a concern. MSM and CSW are remained as an important source of infection. Early Syphilis and gonorrhoea infections were mostly seen among MSM exposures. The findings indicate that the male population in the sample had satisfactory education. However, still the unsafe sexual contacts are common. . Newspapers, internet were more important sources of information on condoms. Low condom use remains another concern.. More males contracted STI through casual partners. Therefore strategies used for prevention need to be revisited also emphasizing on general population where casual partners represent. . Increasing awareness of men and women through mass media and primary health care teams may be important strategies that can be used to keep the HIV epidemic in a low level.

Keywords: STI, HIV, Males, safe sex practices

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Authors: Emily Simango, T. Chitura

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Background: Bovine brucellosis is among the most neglected zoonotic diseases in developing countries, where it is endemic and a growing challenge to public health. The development of cost-effective control measures for the disease can only be affirmed by the knowledge of the disease epidemiology and the ability to define its risk profiles. The aim of the study was to document the trend of bovine brucellosis and the control measures adopted following reported cases during the period 2014 to 2019 in South Africa. Methods: Data on confirmed cases of bovine brucellosis was retrieved from the website of the World Organisation of Animal Health (WOAH). Data was analysed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (IBM SPSS, 2022) version 29.0. Descriptive analysis (frequencies and percentages) and the Analysis of variance (ANOVA) were utilized for statistical significance (p<0.05). Results: The data retrieved in our study revealed an overall average bovine brucellosis prevalence of 8.48. There were statistically significant differences in bovine brucellosis prevalence across the provinces for the years 2016 and 2019 (p≥0.05), with the Eastern Cape Province having the highest prevalence in both instances. Documented control measures for the disease were limited to killing and disposal of disease cases as well as vaccination of susceptible animals. Conclusion: Bovine brucellosis is real in South Africa, with the risk profiles differing across the provinces. Information on brucellosis control measures in South Africa, as reported to the WOAH, is not comprehensive.

Keywords: zoonotic, endemic, Eastern Cape province, vaccination

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Authors: Ly Nguyen, Vidit Munshi

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During the Covid-19 recession, the United States government has implemented several instruments to mitigate the impacts and revitalize the economy. This paper explores the effects of the various government policy decisions on stock returns, housing prices, and investor psychology during the pandemic in the United States. A numerous previous literature studies on this subject, yet very few focus on the context similar to what we are currently experiencing. Our monthly data covering the period from January 2019 through July 2021 were collected from Datastream. Utilizing the VAR model, we document a dynamic relationship between the market and policy actions throughout the period. In particular, the movements of Unemployment, Stock returns, and Housing prices are strongly sensitive to changes in government policies. Our results also indicate that changes in production level, stock returns, and interest rates decisions influence how investors perceived future market risk and expectations. We do not find any significant nexus between monetary and fiscal policy. Our findings imply that information on government policy and stock market performance provide useful feedback to one another in order to make better decisions in the current and future pandemic. Understanding how the market responds to a shift in government practices has important implications for authorities in implementing policy to avoid assets bubbles and market overreactions. The paper also provides useful implications for investors in evaluating the effectiveness of different policies and diversifying portfolios to minimize systematic risk and maximize returns.

Keywords: Covid-19 recession, United States, government policies, investor psychology, housing prices, stock market returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Soo-Yong Cho, Chong-Hyun Cho, Chae-Whan Rim, Sang-Kyu Choi, Jin-Gyun Kim, Ju-Seok Nam

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Recently, vertical axis wind turbines (VAWT) have been widely used to produce electricity even in urban. They have several merits such as low sound noise, easy installation of the generator and simple structure without yaw-control mechanism and so on. However, their blades are operated under the influence of the trailing vortices generated by the preceding blades. This phenomenon deteriorates its output power and makes difficulty predicting correctly its performance. In order to improve the performance of VAWT, wind power towers can be applied. Usually, the wind power tower can be constructed as a multi-story building to increase the frontal area of the wind stream. Hence, multiple sets of the VAWT can be installed within the wind power tower, and they can be operated at high elevation. Many different types of wind power tower can be used in the field. In this study, a wind power tower with circular column shape was applied, and the VAWT was installed at the center of the wind power tower. Seven guide walls were used as a strut between the floors of the wind power tower. These guide walls were utilized not only to increase the wind velocity within the wind power tower but also to adjust the wind direction for making a better working condition on the VAWT. Hence, some important design variables, such as the distance between the wind turbine and the guide wall, the outer diameter of the wind power tower, the direction of the guide wall against the wind direction, should be considered to enhance the output power on the VAWT. A numerical analysis was conducted to find the optimum dimension on design variables by using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) among many prediction methods. The CFD could be an accurate prediction method compared with the stream-tube methods. In order to obtain the accurate results in the CFD, it needs the transient analysis and the full three-dimensional (3-D) computation. However, this full 3-D CFD could be hard to be a practical tool because it requires huge computation time. Therefore, the reduced computational domain is applied as a practical method. In this study, the computations were conducted in the reduced computational domain and they were compared with the experimental results in the literature. It was examined the mechanism of the difference between the experimental results and the computational results. The computed results showed this computational method could be an effective method in the design methodology using the optimization algorithm. After validation of the numerical method, the CFD on the wind power tower was conducted with the important design variables affecting the performance of VAWT. The results showed that the output power of the VAWT obtained using the wind power tower was increased compared to them obtained without the wind power tower. In addition, they showed that the increased output power on the wind turbine depended greatly on the dimension of the guide wall.

Keywords: CFD, performance, VAWT, wind power tower

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Authors: Elizabeth McLean, Katrina Skewes-McFerran, Grace Thompson

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Scholarship highlights the need to further examine and better understand and foster the process of becoming a parent to a premature baby in the neonatal context to support the critical development of the parent-infant relationship. Music therapy research documents significant benefits of music therapy on neonatal physiological and neurodevelopmental function, reduced maternal anxiety and validating parents’ relationship with their premature baby, yet limited studies examine the role of music in supporting parental identity. This was a multi-site study, exploring parents’ musical engagement with their hospitalised baby and parental identity in a NU. In-depth interviews with nine parents of a premature baby across varying time points in their NU journey took place. Data collection and analysis was influenced by Constructive Grounded Theory methodology. Findings in the form of a substantive grounded theory illuminated the contribution of parents’ musical engagement on their sense of parental identity in the NU. Specifically, the significance of their baby’s level and type of response during musical interactions in influencing parents’ capacity to engage in musical dialogue with their baby emerged. Specific conditions that acted as both barriers and fosters in parents’ musical engagement across a high- risk pregnancy and NU admission also emerged. Recommendations for future research into the role of music and music therapy in supporting parental coping and transition to parenthood during a high-risk pregnancy and birth and beyond the NU will be discussed.

Keywords: grounded theory, musical engagement, music therapy, parental identity

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Authors: Maximiliano Guerra, Lexi Frankel, Amalia D. Ardeljan, Sarah Ghali, Diya Kohli, Omar M. Rashid.

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Introduction/Background: Haemophilus influenzae is present as a commensal organism in the nasopharynx of most healthy adults from where it can spread to cause both systemic and respiratory tract infection. Pathogenic properties of this bacterium as well as defects in host defense may result in the spread of these bacteria throughout the body. This can result in a proinflammatory state and colonization particularly in the lungs. Recent studies have failed to determine a link between H. Influenzae colonization and prostate cancer, despite previous research demonstrating the presence of proinflammatory states in preneoplastic and neoplastic prostate lesions. Given these contradictory findings, the primary goal of this study was to evaluate the correlation between H. Influenzae infection and the incidence of prostate cancer. Methods: To evaluate the incidence of Haemophilus influenzae infection and the development of prostate cancer in the future we used data provided by a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database. We were afforded access to this database by Holy Cross Health, Fort Lauderdale for the express purpose of academic research. Standard statistical methods were employed in this study including Pearson’s chi-square tests. Results: Between January 2010 and December 2019, the query was analyzed and resulted in 13, 691 patients in both the control and C. difficile infected groups, respectively. The two groups were matched by age range and CCI score. In the Haemophilus influenzae infected group, the incidence of prostate cancer was 1.46%, while the incidence of the prostate cancer control group was 4.56%. The observed difference in cancer incidence was determined to be a statistically significant p-value (< 2.2x10^-16). This suggests that patients with a history of C. difficile have less risk of developing prostate cancer (OR 0.425, 95% CI: 0.382 - 0.472). Treatment bias was considered, the data was analyzed and resulted in two groups matched groups of 3,208 patients in both the infected with H. Influenzae treated group and the control who used the same medications for a different cause. Patients infected with H. Influenzae and treated had an incidence of prostate cancer of 2.49% whereas the control group incidence of prostate cancer was 4.92% with a p-value (< 2.2x10^-16) OR 0.455 CI 95% (0.526 -0.754), proving that the initial results were not due to the use of medications. Conclusion: The findings of our study reveal a statistically significant correlation between H. Influenzae infection and a decreased incidence of prostate cancer. Our findings suggest that prior infection with H. Influenzae may confer some degree of protection to patients and reduce their risk for developing prostate cancer. Future research is recommended to further characterize the potential role of Haemophilus influenzae in the pathogenesis of prostate cancer.

Keywords: Haemophilus Influenzae, incidence, prostate cancer, risk.

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Authors: Simone Raimondi De Souza, Glaucia Maria Moraes De Oliveira, Ronir Raggio Luiz, Glorimar Rosa

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Introduction: Obesity is among the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Genesis is multifactorial, including genetic, hormonal and environmental factors disorders, among which inadequate feeding pattern, for which nutritional counseling strategies have proven effective. The consumption of beta-glucans (soluble fibers that reportedly promote satiety) present in oat bran can be an effective strategy for preventing and treating obesity. Other benefits have been observed with oat bran consumption, such as reduction of hypercholesterolemia and hyperglycemia, two other risk factors for CVD. Objectives: To analyze the effect of oat bran consumption associated with nutritional counseling in reducing body mass index (BMI), blood cholesterol, glucose profile, waist and neck circumference in obese individuals, and to evaluate the change in eating pattern. Methods: clinical trial, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, lasting 90 days with adults of both genders, with BMI ≥30kg/m2. The study was approved by the Ethics in Research involving human beings in a public institute of cardiology, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Individuals were invited to participate and accepted formally by signing the Terms of Consent. Participants were randomized into oat bran group (gOB) or placebo group (gPCB) and received, respectively: morning prepared consisting of 40g oat bran, 30g of skimmed milk powder and 1g sweetener sucralose; refined flour 40g rice, 30g of milk powder and 1g sweetener sucralose. The Ten Steps to Healthy Eating, of Brazilian Ministry of Health were used to support the nutritional counseling. Variables analyzed: gender; age; BMI, waist circumference (WC) neck circumference (NC); systolic blood pressure (SBP); diastolic blood pressure (DBP); food consumption, total cholesterol (TC), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-c), HDL-cholesterol (HDL-c), non-HDL cholesterol (nHDLc), triglycerides (TG), fasting glucose (FG), fasting insulin (FI) and HOMA-IR. Dietary intake was assessed by 24-hour dietary recall. The Diet Quality Index revised for the Brazilian population (IQD-R) assessed quality of feeding pattern. Statistical analyzes were performed using SPSS version 21, considering statistically significant p-value less than 0.05. Results: A total of 38 participants were included, age = 50 ± 7,6years, 63% women. 19 subjects were placed in gOB and 19 in gPCB. After intervention, statistically significant reductions were observed in the following parameters: in gOB: IQD-R, TC, LDL-c, nHDL-c, FI, SBP, DBP, BMI, WC, NC; in gPCB: IQD-R, LDL-c, SBP, DBP, BMI, WC, NC. No statistically significant differences were observed in the results between groups. Conclusion: Our results reinforce nutritional counseling as important strategy for prevention and treatment of obesity and suggest that inclusion of oat bran in daily diet can bring additional benefits controlling risk factors for CVD. More studies are needed to establish all benefits of oat bran to human health as well as the ideal daily dose for consumption.

Keywords: oat bran, cardiovascular disease, nutritional counseling, obesity

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Authors: Liang Weichien

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Without adequate information and mitigation plan for natural disaster, the risk to urban populated areas will increase in the future as populations grow, especially in Taiwan. Taiwan is recognized as the world's high-risk areas, where an average of 5.7 times of floods occur per year should seek to strengthen coherence and consensus in how cities can plan for flood and climate change. Therefore, this study aims at understanding the vulnerability to flooding in Taipei city, Taiwan, by creating indicators and calculating the vulnerability of each study units. The indicators were grouped into sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the definition of vulnerability of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The indicators were weighted by using Principal Component Analysis. However, current researches were based on the assumption that the composition and influence of the indicators were the same in different areas. This disregarded spatial correlation that might result in inaccurate explanation on local vulnerability. The study used Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis by adding geographic weighting matrix as weighting to get the different main flood impact characteristic in different areas. Cross Validation Method and Akaike Information Criterion were used to decide bandwidth and Gaussian Pattern as the bandwidth weight scheme. The ultimate outcome can be used for the reduction of damage potential by integrating the outputs into local mitigation plan and urban planning.

Keywords: flood vulnerability, geographically weighted principal components analysis, GWPCA, highly urbanized area, spatial correlation

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Authors: Johnson C. Y. Pang, Bo Peng, Kara K. L. Reeves, Allan C. L. Fud

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Objective: Dry needling (DN) has long been used as a treatment method for various musculoskeletal pain conditions. However, the evidence level of the studies was low due to the limitations of the methodology. Lack of randomization and inappropriate blinding is potentially the main sources of bias. A method that can differentiate clinical results due to the targeted experimental procedure from its placebo effect is needed to enhance the validity of the trial. Therefore, this study aimed to validate the method as a placebo ultrasound(US)-guided DN for patients with knee osteoarthritis (KOA). Design: This is a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Ninety subjects (25 males and 65 females) aged between 51 and 80 (61.26 ± 5.57) with radiological KOA were recruited and randomly assigned into three groups with a computer program. Group 1 (G1) received real US-guided DN, Group 2 (G2) received placebo US-guided DN, and Group 3 (G3) was the control group. Both G1 and G2 subjects received the same procedure of US-guided DN, except the US monitor was turned off in G2, blinding the G2 subjects to the incorporation of faux US guidance. This arrangement created the placebo effect intended to permit comparison of their results to those who received actual US-guided DN. Outcome measures, including the visual analog scale (VAS) and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) subscales of pain, symptoms, and quality of life (QOL), were analyzed by repeated measures analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) for time effects and group effects. The data regarding the perception of receiving real US-guided DN or placebo US-guided DN were analyzed by the chi-squared test. The missing data were analyzed with the intention-to-treat (ITT) approach if more than 5% of the data were missing. Results: The placebo US-guided DN (G2) subjects had the same perceptions as the use of real US guidance in the advancement of DN (p<0.128). G1 had significantly higher pain reduction (VAS and KOOS-pain) than G2 and G3 at 8 weeks (both p<0.05) only. There was no significant difference between G2 and G3 at 8 weeks (both p>0.05). Conclusion: The method with the US monitor turned off during the application of DN is credible for blinding the participants and allowing researchers to incorporate faux US guidance. The validated placebo US-guided DN technique can aid in investigations of the effects of US-guided DN with short-term effects of pain reduction for patients with KOA. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Caritas Institute of Higher Education [grant number IDG200101].

Keywords: ultrasound-guided dry needling, dry needling, knee osteoarthritis, physiotheraphy

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Authors: Michael R. Taber, Kristin Stanec

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This paper presents year-two of a longitudinal study on implementing Possibility Books into undergraduate courses to develop a student's creativity mindset: tolerating ambiguity, willingness to risk failure, curiosity, and openness to embrace possibility thinking through unexpected connections. Courses involved in this research span disciplines in the natural and social sciences and the humanities. Year one of the project developed indices from which baseline data could be analyzed. The two significant indices ( > 0.7) were "creativity mindset" and "intentional interactions." Preliminary qualitative and quantitative data analysis indicated that students found the new pedagogical intervention as a safe space to learn new strategies, recognize patterns, and define structures through innovative notetaking forms. Possibility Books in Natural Science courses were designed to develop students' conceptualization of science and math. Using Possibility Books in all disciplines provided a space for students to practice divergent thinking (i.e.,Possibilities), convergent thinking (i.e., forms that express meaning), and risk-taking (i.e., the vulnerability associated with expression). Qualitative coding of open responses on a post-survey revealed two major themes: 1) Possibility Books provided a mind space for learning about self, and 2) provided a calming opportunity to connect concepts. Quantitative analysis indicated significant correlations between focused headspace and notetaking (r = 0.555, p < 0.001), focused headspace, and connecting with others (r = 0.405, p < 0.001).

Keywords: pedagogy, science education, learning methods, creativity mindsets

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Authors: Lamia Bouzgarrou, Amira Omrane, Haithem Kalel, Salma Kammoun

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Background: During recent decades, mechanical and electrical industrial sector has greatly expanded with a significant employability potential. However, this sector faces the increasing prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders with heavy consequences associated with direct and indirect costs. Objective: The current intervention was motivated by large musculoskeletal upper limbs and back disorders frequency among the operators of an assembly workshop in a leader company specialized in sanitary equipment and water and gas connections. We aimed to identify biomechanical constraints among these operators through activity and biomechanical exposures semi-quantitative analysis based on video recordings and MUSKA-TMS software. Methods: We conducted, open observations and exploratory interviews at first, in order to overall understand work situation. Then, we analyzed operator’s activity through systematic observations and interviews. Finally, we conducted a semi-quantitative biomechanical constraints analysis with MUSKA-TMS software after representative activity period video recording. The assessment of biomechanical constrains was based on different criteria; biomechanical characteristics (work positions), aggravating factor (cold, vibration, stress, etc.) and exposure time (duration and frequency of solicitations, recovery phase); with a synthetic score of risk level variable from 1 to 4 (1: low risk of developing MSD and 4: high risk). Results: Semi-quantitative analysis objective many elementary operations with higher biomechanical constrains like high repetitiveness, insufficient recovery time and constraining angulation of shoulders, wrists and cervical spine. Among these risky elementary operations we sited the assembly of sleeve with the body, the assembly of axis, and the control on testing table of gas valves. Transformation of work situations were recommended, covering both the redevelopment of industrial areas and the integration of new tools and equipment of mechanical handling that reduces operator exposure to vibration. Conclusion: Musculoskeletal disorders are complex and costly disorders. Moreover, an approach centered on the observation of the work can promote the interdisciplinary dialogue and exchange between actors with the objective to maximize the performance of a company and improve the quality of life of operators.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, biomechanical constrains, semi-quantitative analysis, ergonomics

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Authors: Cindy Davis, Samantha Rayner

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Secondary traumatic stress (STS) is an indirect form of trauma affecting the psychological well-being of mental health workers; STS is found to be a prevalent risk in mental health occupations. Various factors impact the development of STS within the literature; including the level of trauma individuals are exposed to and their level of empathy. Research is limited on STS in mental health workers in Australia; therefore, this study examined STS and related factors of empathetic behavior and trauma caseload among mental health workers. The research utilized an online survey quantitative research design with a purposive sample of 190 mental health workers (176 females) recruited via professional websites and unofficial social media groups. Participants completed an online questionnaire comprising of demographics, the secondary traumatic stress scale and the empathy scale for social workers. A standard hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to examine the significance of covariates, traumatized clients, traumatic stress within workload and empathy in predicting STS. The current research found 29.5% of participants to meet the criteria for a diagnosis of STS. Age and past trauma within the covariates were significantly associated with STS. Amount of traumatized clients significantly predicted 4.7% of the variance in STS, traumatic stress within workload significantly predicted 4.8% of the variance in STS and empathy significantly predicted 4.9% of the variance in STS. These three independent variables and the covariates accounted for 18.5% of the variance in STS. Practical implications include a focus on developing risk strategies and treatment methods that can diminish the impact of STS.

Keywords: mental health, PTSD, social work, trauma

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Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

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Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 189