Search results for: risk curve analysis

Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Hyunjung Kim, Kune-Woo Lee

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Decommissioning process of nuclear facilities can be said to consist of a sequence of problem solving activities, partly because there may exist working environments contaminated by radiological exposure, and partly because there may also exist industrial hazards such as fire, explosions, toxic materials, and electrical and physical hazards. As for an individual hazard factor, risk assessment techniques are getting known to industrial workers with advance of safety technology, but the way how to integrate those results is not. Furthermore, there are few workers who experienced decommissioning operations a lot in the past. Therefore, not a few countries in the world have been trying to develop appropriate counter techniques in order to guarantee safety and efficiency of the process. In spite of that, there still exists neither domestic nor international standard since nuclear facilities are too diverse and unique. In the consequence, it is quite inevitable to imagine and assess the whole risk in the situation anticipated one by one. This paper aimed to find out an appropriate technique to integrate individual risk assessment results from the viewpoint of experts. Thus, on one hand the whole risk assessment activity for decommissioning operations was modeled as a sequence of individual risk assessment steps, and on the other, a hierarchical risk structure was developed. Then, risk assessment procedure that can elicit individual hazard factors one by one were introduced with reference to the standard operation procedure (SOP) and hierarchical task analysis (HTA). With an assumption of quantification and normalization of individual risks, a technique to estimate relative weight factors was tried by using the conventional Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and its result was reviewed with reference to judgment of experts. Besides, taking the ambiguity of human judgment into consideration, debates based upon fuzzy inference was added with a mathematical case study.

Keywords: decommissioning, risk assessment, analytic hierarchical process (AHP), fuzzy inference

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori ‎

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the technology of Computer audit played a major role in the progress and ‎prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit ‎work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer ‎audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through ‎research in this paper, we proposes the causes of audit risk in a computer ‎environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some ‎extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.‎

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information technology

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Authors: Shiran Bord, Assaf Oshri, Matthew W. Carlson, Sihong Liu

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Background: Alcohol-impaired driving (AID) and binge drinking are major health concerns among college students. Although the link between binge drinking and AID is well established, knowledge regarding binge drinking patterns, the factors influencing binge drinking, and the associations between consumption patterns and alcohol-related risk behaviors is lacking. Aims: To examine heterogeneous trajectories of binge drinking during college and tests factors that might predict class membership as well as class membership outcomes. Methods: Data were obtained from a sample of 1,265 college students (Mage = 18.5, SD = .66) as part of the Longitudinal Study of Violence Against Women (N = 1,265; 59.3% female; 69.2% white). Analyses were completed in three stages. First, a growth curve analysis was conducted to identify trajectories of binge drinking over time. Second, growth curve mixture modeling analyses were pursued to assess unobserved growth trajectories of binge drinking without predictors. Lastly, parental drinking variables were added to the model as predictors of class membership, and AID and being a passenger of a drunk driver were added to the model as outcomes. Results: Three binge drinking trajectories were identified: high-convex, medium concave and low-increasing. Parental drinking was associated with being in high-convex and medium-concave classes. Compared to the low-increasing class, the high convex and medium concave classes reported more AID and being a passenger of a drunk driver more frequently. Conclusions: Parental drinking may affect children’s later engagement in AID. Efforts should focus on parents' education regarding the consequences of parental modeling of alcohol consumption.

Keywords: alcohol impaired driving, alcohol consumption, binge drinking, college students, parental modeling

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Authors: Vineetha Bettaiah, Heggere S. Ranganath

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This paper presents a Hierarchical Piecewise Linear Approximation (HPLA) for the representation of time series data in which the time series is treated as a curve in the time-amplitude image space. The curve is partitioned into segments by choosing perceptually important points as break points. Each segment between adjacent break points is recursively partitioned into two segments at the best point or midpoint until the error between the approximating line and the original curve becomes less than a pre-specified threshold. The HPLA representation achieves dimensionality reduction while preserving prominent local features and general shape of time series. The representation permits course-fine processing at different levels of details, allows flexible definition of similarity based on mathematical measures or general time series shape, and supports time series data mining operations including query by content, clustering and classification based on whole or subsequence similarity.

Keywords: data mining, dimensionality reduction, piecewise linear representation, time series representation

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Mohamed Ahmed Tony, Fayez Abaza

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The effects of a dietary supplement of rumen-protected choline on feed intake, milk yield, milk composition and some blood metabolites were evaluated in transition dairy cows. Forty multiparous cows were blocked into 20 pairs and then randomly allocated to either one of 2 treatments. The treatments were supplementation either with or without (control) rumen-protected choline. Treatments were applied from 2 weeks before and until 8 weeks after calving. Both groups received the same basal diet as total mixed ration. Additionally, 50 g of a rumen-protected choline supplement (25% rumen protected choline chloride) was added individually in the feed. Individual feed intake, milk yield, and body weight were recorded daily. Milk samples were analyzed weekly for fat, protein, and lactose content. Blood was sampled at week 2 before calving, d 1, d 4, d 7, d 10, week 2, week 3, and week 8 after calving. Glucose, triglycerids, nonesterified fatty acids, and β-hydroxybutyric acid in blood were analysed. The results revealed that choline supplementation increased DM intake from 16.5 to 18.0 kg/d and, hence, net energy intake from 99.2 to 120.5 MJ/d at the intercept of the lactation curve at 1 day in milk. Choline supplementation had no effect on milk yield, milk fat yield, or lactose yield. Milk protein yield was increased from 1.11 to 1.22 kg/d at the intercept of the lactation curve. Choline supplementation was associated with decreased milk fat concentration at the intercept of the lactation curve at 1 day in milking, but the effect of choline on milk fat concentration gradually decreased as lactation progressed. Choline supplementation decreased the concentration of blood triglycerids during the first 4 wk after parturition. Choline supplementation had no effect on energy-corrected milk yield, energy balance, body weight and body condition score. Results from this study suggest that fat metabolism in periparturient dairy cows is improved by choline supplementation during the transition period and this may potentially decrease the risk for metabolic disorders in the periparturient dairy cow.

Keywords: choline, dairy cattle, transition cow, triglycerids

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Authors: Manish Madappa, Madhavi Gayathri Raman

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The primary vehicle of human communication is language. A breakdown occurring in any aspect of communication may lead to frustration and isolation among the learners and the teachers. Over seven percent of the population in the world currently experience limitations and those children who exhibit a deviant/deficient language acquisition curve even when being in a language rich environment as their peers may be at risk of having a language disorder or language impairment. The difficulty may be in the word level [vocabulary/word knowledge] and/or the sentence level [syntax/morphology) Children with SLI appear to be developing normally in all aspects except for their receptive and/or expressive language skills. Thus, it is utmost importance to identify children with or at risk of SLI so that an early intervention can foster language and social growth, provide the best possible learning environment with special support for language to be explicitly taught and a step in providing continuous and ongoing support. The present study looks at Kannada English bilingual children and works towards identifying children at risk of “specific language impairment”. The study was conducted through an exploratory study which systematically enquired into the narratives of young Kannada-English bilinguals and to investigate the data for story structure in their narrative formulations. Oral narrative offers a rich source of data about a child’s language use in a relatively natural context. The fundamental objective is to ensure comparability and to be more universal and thus allows for the evaluation narrative text competence. The data was collected from 10 class three students at a primary school in Mysore, Karnataka and analyzed for macrostructure component reflecting the goal directed behavior of a protagonist who is motivated to carry out some kind of action with the intention of attaining a goal. The results show that the children exhibiting a deviation of -1.25 SD are at risk of SLI. Two learners were identified to be at risk of Specific Language Impairment with a standard deviation of more the 1.25 below the mean score.

Keywords: bilingual, oral narratives, SLI, macrostructure

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Authors: Xuri Tang, Ting Pan

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Metaphor institutionalization refers to the propagation of a metaphor that leads to its acceptance in speech community as a norm of the language. Such knowledge is important to both theoretical studies of metaphor and practical disciplines such as lexicography and language generation. This paper reports an empirical study of metaphor institutionalization of 14 Chinese metaphors. It first explores the pattern of metaphor institutionalization by fitting the logistic function (or S-shaped curve) to time series data of conventionality of the metaphors that are automatically obtained from a large-scale diachronic Chinese corpus. Then it reports a questionnaire-based survey on the propagation scale of each metaphor, which is measured by the average number of subjects that can easily understand the metaphorical expressions. The study provides two pieces of evidence supporting the hypothesis that metaphor institutionalization is a phrase transition: (1) the pattern of metaphor institutionalization is an S-shaped curve and (2) institutionalized metaphors generally do not propagate to the whole community but remain in equilibrium state. This conclusion helps distinguish metaphor institutionalization from topicalization and other types of semantic change.

Keywords: metaphor institutionalization, phase transition, propagation scale, s-shaped curve

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Authors: Jamal Fayazi, Farhad Anoosheh, Mohammad R. Ghorbani, Ali R. Paydar

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In this study, to determine the best non-linear regression model describing the growth curve of native poultry, 9657 chicks of generations 18, 19, and 20 raised in Mazandaran breeding center were used. Fowls and roosters of this center distributed in south of Caspian Sea region. To estimate the genetic variability of none linear regression parameter of growth traits, a Gibbs sampling of Bayesian analysis was used. The average body weight traits in the first day (BW1), eighth week (BW8) and twelfth week (BW12) were respectively estimated as 36.05, 763.03, and 1194.98 grams. Based on the coefficient of determination, mean squares of error and Akaike information criteria, Gompertz model was selected as the best growth descriptive function. In Gompertz model, the estimated values for the parameters of maturity weight (A), integration constant (B) and maturity rate (K) were estimated to be 1734.4, 3.986, and 0.282, respectively. The direct heritability of BW1, BW8 and BW12 were respectively reported to be as 0.378, 0.3709, 0.316, 0.389, 0.43, 0.09 and 0.07. With regard to estimated parameters, the results of this study indicated that there is a possibility to improve some property of growth curve using appropriate selection programs.

Keywords: direct heritability, Gompertz, growth traits, maturity weight, native poultry

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Authors: Syed Sameer Aga, Saniya Nissar

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The Xeroderma pigmentosum group D gene (XPD) plays a key role in nucleotide excision repair (NER) pathway of the damaged DNA. Genetic polymorphisms in the coding region of the XPD gene may alter DNA repair capacity of the protein and hence can modulate the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The aim of the study was to determine the genetic association of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) development. 120 CRC patients and 160 normal controls were assessed for genotype frequencies of XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism using PCR-RFLP technique. We observed a significant association (p < 0.05) between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of developing CRC (p < 0.05). Additionally, Gln/Gln genotype of the XPD gene doubled the risk for the development of CRC [p < 0.05; OR=2.25 95% CI (1.07-4.7)]. Our results suggest that there is a significant association between the XPD Lys751Gln polymorphism and the risk of CRC.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, polymorphism, RFLP, DNA Repair, NER, XPD

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Authors: A. J. Nazari, S. Honma

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This paper evaluates oil displacement by water in Hauterivian sandstone reservoir of Kashkari oil field in North of Afghanistan. The core samples of this oil field were taken out from well No-21^st, and the relative permeability and fractional flow are analyzed. Steady state flow laboratory experiments are performed to empirically obtain the fractional flow curves and relative permeability in different water saturation ratio. The relative permeability represents the simultaneous flow behavior in the reservoir. The fractional flow approach describes the individual phases as fractional of the total flow. The fractional flow curve interprets oil displacement by water, and from the tangent of fractional flow curve can find out the average saturation behind the water front flow saturation. Therefore, relative permeability and fractional flow curves are suitable for describing the displacement of oil by water in a petroleum reservoir. The effects of irreducible water saturation, residual oil saturation on the displaceable amount of oil are investigated through Buckley-Leveret analysis.

Keywords: fractional flow, oil displacement, relative permeability, simultaneously flow

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Authors: Amar Partap Singh Pharwaha, Shweta Rani

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To develop a reliable and cost effective communication platform for the telemedicine applications, novel antenna design has been presented using bacterial foraging optimization (BFO) technique. The proposed antenna geometry is achieved by etching a modified Koch curve fractal shape at the edges and a square shape slot at the center of the radiating element of a patch antenna. It has been found that the new antenna has achieved 43.79% size reduction and better resonating characteristic than the original patch. Representative results for both simulations and numerical validations are reported in order to assess the effectiveness of the developed methodology.

Keywords: BFO, electrical permittivity, fractals, Koch curve

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Authors: Iris W. A. Boot, Anke Wesselius, Maurice P. Zeegers

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Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). Vitamin D is involved in various biological functions which have the potential to prevent BC development. Besides, vitamin D also influences the uptake of calcium and phosphorus , thereby possibly indirectly influencing the risk of BC. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relation between vitamin D intake and BC risk. Individual dietary data were pooled from three cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of vitamin D, calcium and phosphorus. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using Cox-regression models. Analyses were adjusted for gender, age and smoking status (Model 1), and additionally for the food groups fruit, vegetables and meat (Model 2). Dose–response relationships (Model 1) were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. In total, 2,871 cases and 522,364 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an overall increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03-1.26). A similar increase BC risk with high vitamin D intake was observed among women and for the non-muscle invasive BC subtype, (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.15-1.72, HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01-1.27, respectively). High calcium intake decreased the BC risk among women (HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97). A combined inverse effect on BC risk was observed for low vitamin D intake and high calcium intake (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.93), while a positive effect was observed for high vitamin D intake in combination with low, moderate and high phosphorus (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.59, HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36, HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.31, respectively). Combining all nutrients showed a decreased BC risk for low vitamin D intake, high calcium and moderate phosphor intake (HR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.18-0.75), and an increased BC risk for moderate intake of all the nutrients (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02-1.38), for high vitamin D and low calcium and phosphor intake (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01-1.62), and for moderate vitamin D and calcium and high phosphorus intake (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.59). No significant dose-response analyses were observed. The findings of this study show an increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake and a decreased risk for high calcium intake. Besides, the study highlights the importance of examining the effect of a nutrient in combination with complementary nutrients for risk assessment. Future research should focus on nutrients in a wider context and in nutritional patterns.

Keywords: bladder cancer, nutritional oncology, pooled cohort analysis, vitamin D

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Authors: Christopher G. Harris, Guy D. Eslick

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Purpose: Lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) is a known risk factor for breast cancer of unclear significance when detected in association with invasive carcinoma. This meta-analysis aims to determine the impact of LCIS on local recurrence risk for individuals with breast cancer treated with breast conservation therapy to help guide appropriate treatment strategies. Methods: We identified relevant studies from five electronic databases. Studies were deemed suitable for inclusion where they compared patients with invasive breast cancer and concurrent LCIS to those with breast cancer alone, all patients underwent breast conservation therapy (lumpectomy with adjuvant radiation therapy), and local recurrence was evaluated. Recurrence data were pooled by use of a random effects model. Results: From 1488 citations screened by our search, 8 studies were deemed suitable for inclusion. These studies comprised of 908 cases and 10638 controls. Median follow-up time was 90 months. There was a significantly increased overall risk of local breast cancer recurrence for individuals with LCIS in association with breast cancer following breast conservation therapy [pOR 1.87; 95% CI 1.14-3.04; p = 0.012]. The risk of local recurrence was non-significantly increased at 5 [pOR 1.09; 95% CI 0.48-2.48; p = 0.828] and 10 years [pOR 1.90; 95% CI 0.89-4.06; p = 0.096]. Conclusions: Individuals with LCIS in association with invasive breast cancer have an increased risk of local recurrence following breast conservation therapy. This supports consideration of aggressive local control of LCIS by way of completion mastectomy or re-excision for certain high-risk patients.

Keywords: breast cancer, breast conservation therapy, lobular carcinoma in situ, lobular neoplasia, local recurrence, meta-analysis

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Authors: Ali Abdullah Albezaghi

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This article aims to introduce a conceptual framework that can facilitate investigations concerning the role of risk management practices in the relationship between construction risks and the construction project's performance. This article is structured based on the extant literature; it reviews theoretical perspectives, highlights the gaps, and illustrates the significance of developing a framework of suggested relationships. Despite growing interest in the role of risks in construction project performance, previous studies have paid little attention to investigating the moderating role of risk management practices on the risk-performance link. This has left researchers and construction project managers with minimal information to explain the conditions under which risk management practices can reduce the impact of project-related risks and improve performance. In this context, this article suggests a viable research model with propositions that assess risk-performance relationships and discusses the potential moderating effects on the domain relationship. This paper adds to the risk management literature by focusing on risk variables that directly impact performance. Further, it also considers the moderating role of risk management practices in such relationships.

Keywords: risk management practices, external risks, internal risks, project risks, project performance

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Authors: H. Ben Khlifa, W. Cheikhrouhou-Koubaa, A. Cheikhrouhou

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The orthorhombic Pr₀.₈Na₀.₂−ₓKₓMnO₃ (x = 0.10 and 0.15) manganites are prepared by using the solid-state reaction at high temperatures. The critical exponents (β, γ, δ) are investigated through various techniques such as modified Arrott plot, Kouvel-Fisher method, and critical isotherm analysis based on the data of the magnetic measurements recorded around the Curie temperature. The critical exponents are derived from the magnetization data using the Kouvel-Fisher method, are found to be β = 0.32(4) and γ = 1.29(2) at TC ~ 123 K for x = 0.10 and β = 0.31(1) and γ = 1.25(2) at TC ~ 133 K for x = 0.15. The critical exponent values obtained for both samples are comparable to the values predicted by the 3D-Ising model and have also been verified by the scaling equation of state. Such results demonstrate the existence of ferromagnetic short-range order in our materials. The magnetic entropy changes of polycrystalline samples with a second-order phase transition are investigated. A large magnetic entropy change deduced from isothermal magnetization curves, is observed in our samples with a peak centered on their respective Curie temperatures (TC). The field dependence of the magnetic entropy changes are analyzed, which shows power-law dependence ΔSmax ≈ a(μ0 H)n at the transition temperature. The values of n obey the Curie Weiss law above the transition temperature. It is shown that for the investigated materials, the magnetic entropy change follows a master curve behavior. The rescaled magnetic entropy change curves for different applied fields collapse onto a single curve for both samples.

Keywords: manganites, critical exponents, magnetization, magnetocaloric, master curve

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Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

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The volume of runoff caused by rainfall in the river basin has enticed the researchers in the fields of the water management resources. In this study, first of the hydrological data such as the rainfall and discharge of the Khiyav river basin of Meshkin city in the northwest of Iran collected and then the process of analyzing and reconstructing has been completed. The soil conservation service (scs) has developed a method for calculating the runoff, in which is based on the curve number specification (CN). This research implemented the following model in the Khiyav river basin of Meshkin city by the GIS techniques and concluded the following fact in which represents the usage of weight model in calculating the curve numbers that provides the possibility for the all efficient factors which is contributing to the runoff creation such as; the geometric characteristics of the basin, the basin soil characteristics, vegetation, geology, climate and human factors to be considered, so an accurate estimation of runoff from precipitation to be achieved as the result. The findings also exposed the accident-prone areas in the output of the Khiyav river basin so it was revealed that the Khiyav river basin embodies a high potential for the flood creation.

Keywords: curve number, khiyav river basin, runoff estimation, SCS

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Authors: Wencong Lu, Abdul Latif, Raza Ullah, Subhan Ullah

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Agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk, in turn, may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers. Although, it is important to assess the risk attitude of farmers and their perception towards different calamitous risk sources for better understanding of their risk management adoption decisions, to the best of our knowledge no studies have been carried out to analyze the risk attitude and risk perceptions in the context of tobacco production in Pakistan. Therefore the study in hand is conducted with an attempt to overcome the gap in existing literature by analyzing different catastrophic risk sources faced by tobacco growers, their attitude towards risk and the effect of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, farmers’ participation in contract farming and off-farm diversification on their risk attitude and risk perception. Around 78% of Pakistan’s entire tobacco crop and nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. The yield/hectare of tobacco produced in KPK province is 14% higher than the global average and 22 % higher than national average. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was selected as main study area as nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. Six districts were purposely selected based on their contribution in overall production for the last five years which accounts for more than 94.84% of the tobacco production in KPK province. Specific objectives taken into considerations for this study are the risk attitude of the farmers for growing FCV tobacco crop, farmers’ risk perception for different risk sources related to tobacco production (as far as the incidence and severity of each risk source is concerned) and the effect of socioeconomic characteristics, contract farming participation and off-farm diversification (income) on the risk attitude and risk perception of FCV tobacco growers.

Keywords: risk attitude, risk perception, contract farming, off-farm diversification, probit model

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

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Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

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Authors: Siqi Qiu, Yijian Zheng, Xin Guo Ming

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In many reliability and risk analysis, failures of components are supposed to be independent. However, in reality, the ignorance of failure dependencies among components may render the results of reliability and risk analysis incorrect. There are two principal ways to incorporate failure dependencies in system reliability and risk analysis: implicit and explicit methods. In the implicit method, failure dependencies can be modeled by joint probabilities, correlation values or conditional probabilities. In the explicit method, certain types of dependencies can be modeled in a fault tree as mutually independent basic events for specific component failures. In this paper, explicit and implicit methods based on BDD will be proposed to evaluate the reliability of systems considering failure dependencies. The obtained results prove the equivalence of the proposed implicit and explicit methods. It is found that the consideration of failure dependencies decreases the reliability of systems. This observation is intuitive, because more components fail due to failure dependencies. The consideration of failure dependencies helps designers to reduce the dependencies between components during the design phase to make the system more reliable.

Keywords: reliability assessment, risk assessment, failure dependencies, binary decision diagram

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Authors: Ayesha Ali, Emilia Lindquist, Arif Jalal, Hannah Yusuf, Kayan Cheung, Rowan Eastabrook

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It is currently estimated that over a third of deaths in children under five in Tanzania are caused by acute respiratory infections (ARIs). However, despite being one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality across the developing world, its risk factors are poorly understood. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature published between 2015 and 2020 was conducted, focusing on risk factors for ARI in Tanzanian children under the age of five. 2015 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Tanzania was analysed to supplement these findings with national data. 2224 papers were retrieved from two databases and were analysed by three independent reviewers. Thirteen papers were eligible for inclusion, covering a wide range of risk factors among which comorbidities (n=6), malnutrition (n=5), lack of parental education (n=4), poor socio-economic status (n=3), and delay in seeking healthcare (n=3) were the most cited risk factors. The risk factors with the highest reported risk ratios/odds ratios were lack of parental education (RR=11.5-14.5), followed by enrolment in school (RR=4.4), delay in seeking healthcare (RR=3.8) and cooking indoors (aOR =1.8-RR=5.5). The DHS data provided local context to these risk factors. For instance, the number of children experiencing symptoms of ARI in both urban and rural areas ranged between 4.5-5% in the two weeks prior to the survey. However, 79% of symptomatic children in Zanzibar received antibiotics for treatment compared to just 34% of those in the Southern Highlands. As demonstrated by both the systematic review and the DHS analysis, risk factors for ARI are predominantly socially determined, with Tanzania’s poorer rural children possessing the highest risk for ARI and more adverse health outcomes. Therefore, the burden of ARIs in Tanzanian children may be alleviated through the provision of appropriate treatment and parental education in rural areas.

Keywords: acute respiratory infection, child, health education, morbidity, mortality, pneumonia, Tanzania

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Authors: Lal Hussain, Wajid Aziz, Imtiaz Ahmed Awan, Sharjeel Saeed

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Multiscale entropy analysis (MSE) is a useful technique recently developed to quantify the dynamics of physiological signals at different time scales. This study is aimed at investigating the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals to analyze the background activity of alcoholic and control subjects by inspecting various coarse-grained sequences formed at different time scales. EEG recordings of alcoholic and control subjects were taken from the publically available machine learning repository of University of California (UCI) acquired using 64 electrodes. The MSE analysis was performed on the EEG data acquired from all the electrodes of alcoholic and control subjects. Mann-Whitney rank test was used to find significant differences between the groups and result were considered statistically significant for p-values<0.05. The area under receiver operator curve was computed to find the degree separation between the groups. The mean ranks of MSE values at all the times scales for all electrodes were higher control subject as compared to alcoholic subjects. Higher mean ranks represent higher complexity and vice versa. The finding indicated that EEG signals acquired through electrodes C3, C4, F3, F7, F8, O1, O2, P3, T7 showed significant differences between alcoholic and control subjects at time scales 1 to 5. Moreover, all electrodes exhibit significance level at different time scales. Likewise, the highest accuracy and separation was obtained at the central region (C3 and C4), front polar regions (P3, O1, F3, F7, F8 and T8) while other electrodes such asFp1, Fp2, P4 and F4 shows no significant results.

Keywords: electroencephalogram (EEG), multiscale sample entropy (MSE), Mann-Whitney test (MMT), Receiver Operator Curve (ROC), complexity analysis

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Authors: Zoltan Horvath, Dora Nagy

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In this research, it was examined whether individual COVID variants cause differences in the lactate curve of cyclists. After all, the virus variants attacked different organs in our body during the infections. During our tests, we used a traditional lactate step test, the results of which were compared with the values before the infection. In the tests, it has been proven that different virus variants show unique lactate curves. In this way, based on the lactate curve, it is possible to identify which variant caused the disease. Thanks to this, it has been shorten the return time, because we can apply the best return protocol after infection to the competitors.

Keywords: COVID-Sars19, lactate, virus mutation, lactate profile

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Authors: Fatemeh Rezaei, Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshnas

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Background: Failure Modes and Effect Analysis is now having known as the main methods of risk assessment and the accreditation requirements for many organizations. The Risk Priority Number (RPN) approach is generally preferred, especially for its easiness of use. Indeed it does not require statistical data, but it is based on subjective evaluations given by the experts about the Occurrence (O i), the Severity (Si) and the Detectability (D i) of each cause of failure. Methods: This study is a quantitative – qualitative research. In terms of qualitative dimension, method of focus groups with inductive approach is used. To evaluate the results of the qualitative study, quantitative assessment was conducted to calculate RPN score. Results; We have studied patient’s journey process in surgery ward and the most important phase of the process determined Transport of the patient from the holding area to the operating room. Failures of the phase with the highest priority determined by defining inclusion criteria included severity (clinical effect, claim consequence, waste of time and financial loss), occurrence (time- unit occurrence and degree of exposure to risk) and preventability (degree of preventability and defensive barriers) and quantifying risks priority criteria in the context of RPN index. Ability of improved RPN reassess by root cause (RCA) analysis showed some variations. Conclusions: Finally, It could be concluded that understandable criteria should have been developed according to personnel specialized language and communication field. Therefore, participation of both technical and clinical groups is necessary to modify and apply these models.

Keywords: failure mode, effects analysis, risk priority number(RPN), health system, risk assessment

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Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal, Magdy Abdel-Kader

Abstract:

Purpose: This study explores whether a firm’s effective political risk management is preventing real and accrual earnings management . Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of 130 firms operating in Egypt during the period 2008-2013, two hypotheses are tested using the panel data regression models. Findings: The empirical findings indicate a significant relation between real and accrual earnings management and political risk. Originality/value: This paper provides a statistically evidence on the effects of the political risk management failure on the mangers’ engagement in the real and accrual earnings management practices, and its impact on the firm’s performance.

Keywords: political risk, risk management failure, real activities manipulation, accrual earnings management

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

Abstract:

Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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Authors: Finbarr Murphy, Wei Xu, Xian Xu

Abstract:

The embedding of digital technologies in the global economy has attracted increasing attention from economists. With a large and detailed dataset, this study examines the specific case where consumers have a choice between offline and digital channels in the context of insurance purchases. We find that digital channels screen consumers with lower unobserved risk. For the term life, endowment, and disease insurance products, the average risk of the policies purchased through digital channels was 75%, 21%, and 31%, respectively, lower than those purchased offline. As a consequence, the lower unobserved risk leads to weaker information asymmetry and higher profitability of digital channels. We highlight three mechanisms of the risk screening effect: heterogeneous marginal influence of channel features on insurance demand, the channel features directly related to risk control, and the link between the digital divide and risk. We also find that the risk screening effect mainly comes from the extensive margin, i.e., from new consumers. This paper contributes to three connected areas in the insurance context: the heterogeneous economic impacts of digital technology adoption, insurer-side risk selection, and insurance marketing.

Keywords: digital economy, information asymmetry, insurance, mobile application, risk screening

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Authors: Prandesha Govender, Chris Cloete

Abstract:

Purpose: The objective of the paper is to develop a tool for the evaluation of the financial risk of a shopping center. Methodology: Important factors that indicate the success of a shopping center were identified from the available literature. Weights were allocated to these factors and a risk rating was calculated for 505 shopping centers in the largest province in South Africa by taking the factor scores, factor weights, and category weights into account. The ratings for ten randomly selected shopping centers were correlated with consumer feedback and standardized against the ECAI (External Credit Assessment Institutions) data for the same centers. The ratings were also mapped to corporates with the same risk rating to provide a better intuitive assessment of the meaning of the inherent risk of each center. Results: The proposed risk tool shows a strong linear correlation with consumer views and can be compared to expert opinions, such as that of fund managers and REITs. Interpretation of the tool was also illustrated by correlating the risk rating of selected shopping centers to the risk rating of reputable and established entities. Conclusions: The proposed Shopping Centre Risk Tool, used in conjunction with financial inputs from the relevant center, should prove useful to an investor when the desirability of investment in or expansion, renovation, or purchase of a shopping center is being considered.

Keywords: risk, shopping centres, risk modelling, investment, rating tool, rating scale

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Authors: Maha Mourad

Abstract:

Higher education in any competitive European economy should serve the new information society by increasing the supply of good quality education services and by creating good international brands in the international higher education market. Hence, continuous risk management techniques through higher educational reforms programs became one of the top priorities within the European Union to control the quality of higher education. Risk is higher education is studies by several researchers who agreed that the risk in higher education has a direct influence on continuity of quality education and research contribution. The focus of this research is to highlights the Internal Quality Assurance (IQA) activities in the Polish higher education system as a risk management tool used to control the quality of education. This paper presents a qualitative empirical analysis in 5 different universities in Poland. In addition, it aims to help in finding global practical and create benchmark for policy makers concerning the risk management techniques based on the Polish experience.

Keywords: education development, quality assurance, sustainability, european higher education

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Authors: Taonga Temwani Chibaka

Abstract:

This qualitative research study was conducted to identify the common risk factors that affect the construction industry in Malawi in the building and infrastructure (civil works) projects. The study then evaluates the possible risk responses that are done to mitigate the various risk factors that were identified. I addition the research also established the barriers to risk management implementation with lastly mapping out as where the identified risk factors fall on which stage of the project and then also map out the knowledge areas that need to be worked on the cases on Malawian construction industry in order to mitigate most of the identified risk factors. The study involved the interviewing the professionals from the construction industry in Malawi where insights and ideas were collected, analysed and interpreted. The key study findings show that risks related to clients group are perceived as most critical followed by the contractor related, consultant related and then external group related factors respectively where preventive measures are the most applied risk response technique where the aim to avoid most of the risk factors from happening. Most of the risk factors identified were internal risks and in managerial category which suggested that risk planning was to be emphasized at pre-contract stage to minimize these risks since a bigger percentage of the risk factors were mapped out at implementation stage. Furthermore, barriers to risk management were identified and the key barriers were lack of awareness; lack of knowledge; lack of formal policies in place; regarded as costly and limited time which resulted in proposing that regulating authorities to purposefully introduce intense training on risk management to make known of this new knowledge area. The study then recommends that organisation should formally implement risk management where policies should be introduced to enforce all parties to undertake this. Risk planning was regarded as paramount and this to be done from pre-contract phase so as to mitigate 80% of the risk factors. Finally, training should be done on all project management knowledge areas.

Keywords: risk management, risk factors, risks, malawi

Procedia PDF Downloads 320