Search results for: fixed effects model

Authors: Selin Kara-Bahçekapılı, Bengisu Nehir Aydın

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Objective: In this study, it is aimed to examine the relationship between childhood traumas (overprotection-control, emotional/physical/sexual abuse, emotional/physical neglect), age, emotional regulation difficulties, and the tendency of violence in adults. In the study, the direct and indirect effects of 6 sub-factors of childhood traumas, emotion regulation difficulties, and age on tendency to violence are evaluated on a model that theoretically reveals. Method: The population of this cross-sectional study consists of individuals between the ages of 18-65 living in Turkey. The data from 527 participants were obtained by online surveys and convenience sampling method within the scope of the study. As a result of exclusion criteria and then outlier data analysis, the data of 443 participants were included in the analysis. Data were collected by demographic information form, childhood trauma scale, emotion regulation difficulty scale, and violence tendency scale. Research data were analyzed by SPSS and AMOS using correlation, path analysis, direct and indirect effects. Results: According to the research findings, the variables in the model explained 28.2% of the variance of the mean scores of the individuals' tendency to violence. Emotion regulation difficulties have the most direct effect on the tendency to violence (d=.387; p<.01). The effects of excessive protection and control, emotional neglect, and physical neglect variables on the tendency to violence are not significant. When the significant and indirect effects of the variables on tendency to violence over emotion regulation difficulties are examined, age has a negative effect, emotional neglect has a positive effect, emotional abuse has a positive effect, and overprotection-control has a positive effect. The indirect effects of sexual abuse, physical neglect, and physical abuse on tendency to violence are not significant. Childhood traumas and age variables in the model explained 24.1% of the variance of the mean scores of the individuals’ emotion regulation difficulties. The variable that most affects emotion regulation difficulties is age (d=-.268; p<.001). The direct effects of sexual abuse, physical neglect, and physical abuse on emotion regulation difficulties are not significant. Conclusion: The results of the research emphasize the critical role of difficulty in emotion regulation on the tendency to violence. Difficulty in emotion regulation affects the tendency to violence both directly and by mediating different variables. In addition, it is seen that some sub-factors of childhood traumas have direct and/or indirect effects on the tendency to violence. Emotional abuse and age have both direct and indirect effects on the tendency to violence over emotion regulation difficulties.

Keywords: childhood trauma, emotion regulation difficulties, tendency to violence, path analysis

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Authors: Harneet Walia, Morteza Zihayat

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Customer acquisition has become one of the critical issues of any business in the 21st century; having a healthy customer base is the essential asset of the bank business. Term deposits act as a major source of cheap funds for the banks to invest and benefit from interest rate arbitrage. To attract customers, the marketing campaigns at most financial institutions consist of multiple outbound telephonic calls with more than one contact to a customer which is a very time-consuming process. Therefore, customized direct marketing has become more critical than ever for attracting new clients. As customer acquisition is becoming more difficult to archive, having an intelligent and redefined list is necessary to sell a product smartly. Our aim of this research is to increase the effectiveness of campaigns by predicting customers who will most likely subscribe to the fixed deposit and suggest the most suitable month to reach out to customers. We design a Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) using two different approaches, with an aim to find the best approach and technique to build the prediction model. TAUPF is implemented using Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA) and Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA). We also address the data imbalance problem by examining and comparing different methods of sampling (Up-sampling and down-sampling). Our results have shown building such a model is quite feasible and profitable for the financial institutions. The Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) can be easily used in any industry such as telecom, automobile, tourism, etc. where the TAUPF (Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA) or Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA)) holds valid. In our case, CUPA books more reliable. As proven in our research, one of the most important challenges is to define measures which have enough predictive power as the subscription to a fixed deposit depends on highly ambiguous situations and cannot be easily isolated. While we have shown the practicality of time-aware upsell prediction model where financial institutions can benefit from contacting the customers at the specified month, further research needs to be done to understand the specific time of the day. In addition, a further empirical/pilot study on real live customer needs to be conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model in the real world.

Keywords: customer acquisition, predictive analysis, targeted marketing, time-aware analysis

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Authors: Wen Luo, Phil J. Vardon, Anne-Catherine Dieudonne

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One key process that partly controls the success of geothermal projects is fluid reinjection, which benefits in dealing with waste water, maintaining reservoir pressure, and supplying heat-exchange media, etc. Thus, sustaining the injectivity is of great importance for the efficiency and sustainability of geothermal production. However, the injectivity is sensitive to the reinjection process. Field experiences have illustrated that the injectivity can be damaged or improved. In this paper, the focus is on how the injectivity is improved. Since the injection pressure is far below the formation fracture pressure, hydraulic fracturing cannot be the mechanism contributing to the increase in injectivity. Instead, thermal stimulation has been identified as the main contributor to improving the injectivity. For low-enthalpy geothermal reservoirs, which are not fracture-controlled, thermal fracturing, instead of thermal shearing, is expected to be the mechanism for increasing injectivity. In this paper, field data from the sedimentary low-enthalpy geothermal reservoirs in the Netherlands were analysed to show the occurrence of thermal fracturing due to the cooling shock during reinjection. Injection data were collected and compared to show the effects of the thermal fractures on injectivity. Then, a thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) model for the near field formation was developed and solved by finite element method to simulate the observed thermal fractures. It was then compared with the HM model, decomposed from the THM model, to illustrate the thermal effects on thermal fracturing. Finally, the effects of operational parameters, i.e. injection temperature and pressure, on the changes in injectivity were studied on the basis of the THM model. The field data analysis and simulation results illustrate that the thermal fracturing occurred during reinjection and contributed to the increase in injectivity. The injection temperature was identified as a key parameter that contributes to thermal fracturing.

Keywords: injectivity, reinjection, thermal fracturing, thermo-hydro-mechanical model

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Authors: Zou Xuan, Liu Hongchen

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The ideal dentin desensitizing agent should not only have good biological safety, simple clinical operation mode, the superior treatment effect, but also should have a durable effect to resist the oral environmental temperature change and oral mechanical abrasion, so as to achieve a persistent desensitization effect. Also, when using desensitizing agent to prevent the post-operative hypersensitivity, we should not only prevent it from affecting crowns’ retention, but must understand its effects on bond strength of dentin adhesives. There are various of desensitizers and dentin adhesives in clinical treatment. They have different chemical or physical properties. Whether the use of desensitizing agent would affect the bond strength of dentin adhesives still need further research. In this in vitro study, we built the hypersensitive dentin model and post-operative dentin model, to evaluate the sealing effects and durability on exposed tubule by three different dentin desensitizers and to evaluate the sealing effects and the bond strength of dentin adhesives after using three different dentin desensitizers on post-operative dentin. The result of this study could provide some important references for clinical use of dentin desensitizing agent. 1. As to the three desensitizers, the hypersensitive dentin model was built to evaluate their sealing effects on exposed tubule by SEM observation and dentin permeability analysis. All of them could significantly reduce the dentin permeability. 2. Test specimens of three groups treated by desensitizers were subjected to aging treatment with 5000 times thermal cycling and toothbrush abrasion, and then dentin permeability was measured to evaluate the sealing durability of these three desensitizers on exposed tubule. The sealing durability of three groups were different. 3. The post-operative dentin model was built to evaluate the sealing effects of the three desensitizers on post-operative dentin by SEM and methylene blue. All of three desensitizers could reduce the dentin permeability significantly. 4. The influences of three desensitizers on the bonding efficiency of total-etch and self-etch adhesives were evaluated with the micro-tensile bond strength study and bond interface morphology observation. The dentin bond strength for Green or group was significantly lower than the other two groups (P<0.05).

Keywords: dentin, desensitizer, dentin permeability, thermal cycling, micro-tensile bond strength

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Authors: Jozef Mindas, Jaroslav Skvarenina, Jana Skvareninova

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Study of the effects of climate change on Norway Spruce (Picea abies) forests has mainly focused on the diversity of tree species diversity of tree species as a result of the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes as well as some effects of disturbance regime changes. The tree species’ diversity changes in spruce forests due to climate change have been analyzed via gap model. Forest gap model is a dynamic model for calculation basic characteristics of individual forest trees. Input ecological data for model calculations have been taken from the permanent research plots located in primeval forests in mountainous regions in Slovakia. The results of regional scenarios of the climatic change for the territory of Slovakia have been used, from which the values are according to the CGCM3.1 (global) model, KNMI and MPI (regional) models. Model results for conditions of the climate change scenarios suggest a shift of the upper forest limit to the region of the present subalpine zone, in supramontane zone. N. spruce representation will decrease at the expense of beech and precious broadleaved species (Acer sp., Sorbus sp., Fraxinus sp.). The most significant tree species diversity changes have been identified for the upper tree line and current belt of dwarf pine (Pinus mugo) occurrence. The results have been also discussed in relation to most important disturbances (wind storms, snow and ice storms) and phenological changes which consequences are little known. Special discussion is focused on biomass production changes in relation to carbon storage diversity in different carbon pools.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, Norway spruce forests, gap model

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Authors: Alireza Abbasi Moshaii, Farshid Najafi

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In this paper a new model for centre of motion creating is proposed. This new method uses cables. So, it is very useful in robots because it is light and has easy assembling process. In the robots which need to be in touch with some things this method is very good. It will be described in the following. The accuracy of the idea is proved by an experiment. This system could be used in the robots which need a fixed point in the contact with some things and make a circular motion. Such as dancer, physician or repair robots.

Keywords: centre of motion, robotic cables, permanent touching, mechatronics engineering

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Authors: Ana Corberan-Vallet, Karen C. Florez, Ingrid C. Marino, Jose D. Bermudez

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In 2016, the Region of the Americas was declared free of measles, a viral disease that can cause severe health problems. However, since 2017, measles has reemerged in Venezuela and has subsequently reached neighboring countries. In 2018, twelve American countries reported confirmed cases of measles. Governmental and health authorities in Colombia, a country that shares the longest land boundary with Venezuela, are aware of the need for a strong response to restrict the expanse of the epidemic. In this work, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with an underlying cluster structure to describe disease incidence in Colombia. Concretely, the proposed methodology provides relative risk estimates at the department level and identifies clusters of disease, which facilitates the implementation of targeted public health interventions. Socio-demographic factors, such as the percentage of migrants, gross domestic product, and entry routes, are included in the model to better describe the incidence of disease. Since the model does not impose any spatial correlation at any level of the model hierarchy, it avoids the spatial confounding problem and provides a suitable framework to estimate the fixed-effect coefficients associated with spatially-structured covariates.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, cluster identification, disease mapping, risk estimation

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Authors: Gaurav Gupta, Jitendra Mahakud

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This study focuses on the significance of internal financing constraints on the determination of corporate fixed investments in the case of Indian manufacturing companies. Financing constraints companies which have less internal fund or retained earnings face more transaction and borrowing costs due to imperfections in the capital market. The period of study is 1999-2000 to 2013-2014 and we consider 618 manufacturing companies for which the continuous data is available throughout the study period. The data is collected from PROWESS data base maintained by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd. Panel data methods like fixed effect and random effect methods are used for the analysis. The Likelihood Ratio test, Lagrange Multiplier test, and Hausman test results conclude the suitability of the fixed effect model for the estimation. The cash flow and liquidity of the company have been used as the proxies for the internal financial constraints. In accordance with various theories of corporate investments, we consider other firm specific variable like firm age, firm size, profitability, sales and leverage as the control variables in the model. From the econometric analysis, we find internal cash flow and liquidity have the significant and positive impact on the corporate investments. The variables like cost of capital, sales growth and growth opportunities are found to be significantly determining the corporate investments in India, which is consistent with the neoclassical, accelerator and Tobin’s q theory of corporate investment. To check the robustness of results, we divided the sample on the basis of cash flow and liquidity. Firms having cash flow greater than zero are put under one group, and firms with cash flow less than zero are put under another group. Also, the firms are divided on the basis of liquidity following the same approach. We find that the results are robust to both types of companies having positive and negative cash flow and liquidity. The results for other variables are also in the same line as we find for the whole sample. These findings confirm that internal financing constraints play a significant role for determination of corporate investment in India. The findings of this study have the implications for the corporate managers to focus on the projects having higher expected cash inflows to avoid the financing constraints. Apart from that, they should also maintain adequate liquidity to minimize the external financing costs.

Keywords: cash flow, corporate investment, financing constraints, panel data method

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Authors: Abdolsalam Ghaderi

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In this paper, the single-depot capacitated location-routing problem under uncertainty is presented. The problem aims to find the optimal location of a single depot and the routing of vehicles to serve the customers when the parameters may change under different circumstances. This problem has many applications, especially in the area of supply chain management and distribution systems. To get closer to real-world situations, travel time of vehicles, the fixed cost of vehicles usage and customers’ demand are considered as a source of uncertainty. A combined approach including robust optimization and stochastic programming was presented to deal with the uncertainty in the problem at hand. For this purpose, a mixed integer programming model is developed and a heuristic algorithm based on Variable Neighborhood Search(VNS) is presented to solve the model. Finally, the computational results are presented and future research directions are discussed.

Keywords: location-routing problem, robust optimization, stochastic programming, variable neighborhood search

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Authors: Alemayehu Geremew Geremew

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We prove the weak convergence of Mann iteration for a hybrid pair of maps to a common fixed point of a selfmap f and a multivalued f nonexpansive mapping T in Banach space E.

Keywords: common fixed point, Mann iteration, multivalued mapping, weak convergence

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Authors: D Bhargavi, J. Sharath Kumar Reddy

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The present investigation has been undertaken to assess the effect of viscous dissipation and axial conduction on forced convection heat transfer in the entrance region of a parallel plate channel with the porous insert attached to both walls of the channel. The flow field is unidirectional. Flow in the porous region corresponds to Darcy-Brinkman model and the clear fluid region to that of plane Poiseuille flow. The effects of the parameters Darcy number, Da, Peclet number, Pe, Brinkman number, Br and a porous fraction γ_p on the local heat transfer coefficient are analyzed graphically. Effects of viscous dissipation employing the Darcy model and the clear fluid compatible model have been studied.

Keywords: porous material, channel partially filled with a porous material, axial conduction, viscous dissipation

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Authors: Hend Mesbah, Yehia Youssef, Ibrahim Hassan, Shaaban Nosier, Ahmed El-Shazly, Ahmed Helal

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The problem of drinking water shortage is becoming more crucial nowadays as a result of the increased demand due to the population growth and the rise in the standard living. In recent years, desalination using electrodialysis powered by solar energy (PV-ED) is being widely used to help provide treated water and reduce the scarcity in water supply. In the present study, a water desalination laboratory scale ED cell with a fixed bed circulation system was designed, developed, and tested. The effect of three parameters (namely, cell voltage , flowrate, and salt concentration) on the removal percentage of salt ions was studied. The cell voltage was adjusted at 3 , 4 and 6 V. A flow rate of 5, 10, and 20 ml/s and an initial salt concentration of 2000, 5000, and 7000 ppm were investigated. The maximum salt percentage removal obtained was 52.5% at the lowest initial concentration (2000 ppm) and at the highest cell voltage (6 V). There was no significant effect of the flow rate on the removal percentage. A model of PV module has also been developed to calculate the dimensions of a solar cell based on the amount of energy consumed and it was calculated from the Overall ED cell voltage.

Keywords: desalination, electrodialysis, solar desalination, photovoltaic electrodialysis

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Authors: Tatipamula Samiksha Goud, .A.Naveena, M.sresta

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Traffic congestion is a major issue in many cities throughout the world, particularly in urban areas, and it is past time to switch from a fixed timer mode to an automated system. The current traffic signalling system is a fixed-time system that is inefficient if one lane is more functional than the others. A structure for an intelligent traffic control system is being designed to address this issue. When traffic density is higher on one side of a junction, the signal's green time is extended in comparison to the regular time. This study suggests a technique in which the signal's time duration is assigned based on the amount of traffic present at the time. Infrared sensors can be used to do this.

Keywords: infrared sensors, micro-controllers, LEDs, oscillators

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Hudson Akewe

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We prove that the convergence of explicit Mann, explicit Ishikawa, explicit Noor, explicit SP, explicit multistep and explicit multistep-SP fixed point iterative procedures are equivalent for the classes of multi-valued phi-contraction, phi-Zamfirescu and phi-quasi-contractive mappings in the framework of modular function spaces. Our results complement equivalence results on normed and metric spaces in the literature as they elegantly cut out the triangle inequality.

Keywords: multistep iterative procedures, multivalued mappings, equivalence results, fixed point

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Authors: Lukman Oyelami

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Studies have identified trade as a veritable tool for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction in developing countries. However, contrary to the overwhelming pieces of evidence of the Asian tiger as a success story of beneficial trade, many African countries still experience poverty unabatedly despite active engagement in trade. Consequently, this study seeks to investigate the contributory effect of technological innovation on total export performance and specifically manufacturing exports of African countries. This is with a view to exploring manufacturing exports as a viable option for diversification. To achieve the empirical investigation this study, require Systems Generalized Method of Moments (sys-GMM) estimation technique was adopted based on the econometric realities inherent in the data utilized. However, the static technique of panel estimation of the Fixed Effects (FE) model was utilized for baseline analysis and robustness check. The conclusion from this study is that innovation generally impacts export performance of African countries positively, however, manufacturing export shows more sensitivity to innovation than total export. And, this provides a clear pathway for export diversification for many African countries that run a resource-based economy.

Keywords: innovation, export, GMM, Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Mesih Kocamuftuoglu, Gonca Ozan, Enver Ozan, Nalan Kaya, Sema Temizer Ozan

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Metabolic Syndrome, one of the common metabolic disorder, occurs with co-development of insulin resistance, obesity, dislipidemia and hypertension problems. Insulin resistance appears to play a pathogenic role in the metabolic syndrome. Also, there is a relationship between insulin resistance and infertility as known. Turmeric (Curcuma longa L.) a polyphenolic chemical is widely used for its coloring, flavoring, and medicinal properties, and exhibits a strong antioxidant activity. In this study, we assess the effects of turmeric on rat uterine tissue in metabolic syndrome model induced by high fructose diet. Thirty-two adult female Wistar rats weighing 220±20 g were randomly divided into four groups (n=8) as follows; control, fructose, turmeric, and fructose plus turmeric. Metabolic syndrome was induced by fructose solution 20% (w/v) in tap water, and turmeric (C.Longa) administered at the dose of 80 mg/kg body weight every other day by oral gavage. After the experimental period of 8 weeks, rats were decapitated, serum and uterine tissues were removed. Serum lipid profile, glucose, insülin levels were measured. Uterine tissues were fixed for histological analyzes. The uterine tissue sections were stained with hematoxylin-eosin (H & E) stain, then examined and photographed on a light microscope (Novel N-800Mx20). As a result, fructose consumption effected serum lipids, insulin levels, and insulin resistance significantly. Endometrium and myometrium layers were observed in normal structure in control group of uterine tissues. Perivascular edema, peri glandular fibrosis, and inflammatory cell increase were detected in fructose group. Sections of the fructose plus turmeric group showed a significant improvement in findings when compared to the fructose group. Turmeric group cell structures were observed similar with the control group. These results demonstrated that high-fructose consumption could change the structure of the uterine tissue. On the other hand, turmeric administration has beneficial effects on uterine tissue at that dose and duration when administered with fructose.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, rat, turmeric, uterus

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Authors: Hong-Fang Ma, Cong-yi He, Hai-Tao Zhang, Wei-Yong Ying, Ding-Ye Fang

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A Ni-based catalyst supported by γ-Al2O3 was prepared by impregnation method, and the catalyst was used in a low CO and CO2 concentration methanation system. The effect of temperature, pressure and space velocity on the methanation reaction was investigated in an experimental fixed-bed reactor. The methanation reaction was operated at the conditions of 190-240°C, 3000-24000ml•g-1•h-1 and 1.5-3.5MPa. The results show that temperature and space velocity play important role on the reaction. With the increase of reaction temperature the CO and CO2 conversion increase and the selectivity of CH4 increase. And with the increase of the space velocity the conversion of CO and CO2 and the selectivity of CH4 decrease sharply.

Keywords: coke oven gas, methanntion, catalyst, fixed bed, performance

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Authors: Ivonne Tshuma, Ralf Cord-Ruwisch, Wendell Ela

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Water crisis is a world-wide problem because of population growth and climate change. Hence, desalination is a solution to water scarcity, which threatens the world. Reverse osmosis (RO) is the most used technique for desalination; unfortunately, this process, usually requires high-pressure requirement hence requires a lot of energy about 3 – 5.5 KWhr/m³ of electrical energy. The pressure requirements of RO can be alleviated by the use of PRO (pressure retarded osmosis) to drive the RO process. This paper proposes a process of utilizing the energy directly from PRO to drive an RO process. The paper mostly analyses the PRO process parameters such as cross-flow velocity, density, and buoyancy and how these have an effect on PRO hence ultimately the RO process. The experimental study of the PRO with various feed solution concentrations and cross-flow velocities at fixed applied pressure with different orientations of the PRO cell was performed. The study revealed that without cross-flow velocity, buoyancy effects were observed but not with cross-flow velocity.

Keywords: cross-flow velocity, pressure retarded osmosis, density, buoyancy

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Paul Ojeaga

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Can the level of innovation use drive un-validated business models across regions? To what extent does industrial sector attractiveness drive firm’s success across regions at the time of start-up? This study examines the role of innovation on start-up success in six regions of the world (namely Sub Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America, South East Asia Pacific, the European Union and the United States representing North America) using macroeconomic variables. While there have been studies using firm level data, results from such studies are not suitable for national policy decisions. The need to drive a regional innovation policy also begs for an answer, therefore providing room for this study. Results using dynamic panel estimation show that innovation counts in the early infancy stage of new business life cycle. The results are robust even after controlling for time fixed effects and the study present variance-covariance estimation robust standard errors.

Keywords: industrial economics, un-validated business models, scalable models, entrepreneurship

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Authors: Hong Lu, Yongquan Zhang, Wei Fan, Xiangang Su

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Bent mandrel has been widely used as precise mould in automobile industry, shipping industry and aviation industry. To improve the versatility and efficiency of turning method of bent mandrel with fixed rotational center, an instantaneous machining model based on cutting parameters and machine dimension is prospered in this paper. The spiral-like tool path generation approach in non-axisymmetric turning process of bent mandrel is developed as well to deal with the error of part-to-part repeatability in existed turning model. The actual cutter-location points are calculated by cutter-contact points, which are obtained from the approach of spiral sweep process using equal-arc-length segment principle in polar coordinate system. The tool offset is set to avoid the interference between tool and work piece is also considered in the machining model. Depend on the spindle rotational angle, synchronization control of X-axis, Z-axis and C-axis is adopted to generate the tool-path of the turning process. The simulation method is developed to generate NC program according to the presented model, which includes calculation of cutter-location points and generation of tool-path of cutting process. With the approach of a bent mandrel taken as an example, the maximum offset of center axis is 4mm in the 3D space. Experiment results verify that the machining model and turning method are appropriate for the characteristics of bent mandrel.

Keywords: bent mandrel, instantaneous machining model, simulation method, tool-path generation

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Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

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In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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Authors: Seung Ju Yeon, Seul Ki Min, Jun Sang Park, Yeo Seon Kwon, Hoo Cheol Lee, Hyun Jung Shim, Il-Doo Kim, Ja Kyeong Lee, Hwa Sung Shin

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In brain injury, depleting oxidative stress is the most effective way to reduce the brain infarct size. C-phycocyanin (C-Pc) is a well-known antioxidant protein that has neuroprotective effects obtained from green microalgae. Astrocyte is glial cell that supports the nerve cell such as neuron, which account for a large portion of the brain. In brain injury, such as ischemia and reperfusion, astrocyte has an important rule that overcomes the oxidative stress and protect from brain reactive oxygen species (ROS) injury. However little is known about how C-Pc regulates the anti-oxidants effects of astrocyte. In this study, when the C-Pc was treated in oxidized astrocyte, we confirmed that inflammatory factors Interleukin-6 and Interleukin-3 were increased and antioxidants enzyme, Superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase was upregulated, and neurotrophic factors, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and nerve growth factor (NGF) was alleviated. Also, it was confirmed to reduce infarct size of the brain in ischemia and reperfusion because C-Pc has anti-oxidant effects in middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) animal model. These results show that C-Pc can help astrocytes lead neuroprotective activities in the oxidative stressed environment of the brain. In summary, the C-PC protects astrocytes from oxidative stress and has anti-oxidative, anti-inflammatory, neurotrophic effects under ischemic situations.

Keywords: c-phycocyanin, astrocyte, reactive oxygen species, ischemia and reperfusion, neuroprotective effect

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Authors: Lei Chen, Jian Jiao, Tingdi Zhao

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Failures of automotive electric/electronic systems, which are universally considered to be safety-critical and software-intensive, may cause catastrophic accidents. Analysis and verification of failures in these kinds of systems is a big challenge with increasing system complexity. Model-checking is often employed to allow formal verification by ensuring that the system model conforms to specified safety properties. The system-level effects of failures are established, and the effects on system behavior are observed through the formal verification. A hazard analysis technique, called Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis, is capable of identifying design flaws which may cause potential failure hazardous, including software and system design errors and unsafe interactions among multiple system components. This paper provides a concept on how to use model-checking integrated with Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis to perform failure analysis and verification of automotive electric/electronic systems. As a result, safety requirements are optimized, and failure propagation paths are found. Finally, an automotive electric/electronic system case study is used to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the method.

Keywords: failure analysis and verification, model checking, system-theoretic process analysis, automotive electric/electronic system

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Recurrent infant diarrhea is studied using daily data collected in Salvador, Brazil over one year and three months. A logistic regression model is fitted instead of Aalen's additive model using the same covariates that were used in the analysis with the additive model. The model gives reasonably similar results to that using additive regression model. In addition, the problem with the estimated conditional probabilities not being constrained between zero and one in additive model is solved here. Also martingale residuals that have been used to judge the goodness of fit for the additive model are shown to be useful for judging the goodness of fit of the logistic model.

Keywords: additive model, cumulative probabilities, infant diarrhoea, recurrent event

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Authors: William J. Crowther, Conor Marsh

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Object-based flow simulation allows fast computation of arbitrarily complex aerodynamic models made up of simple objects with limited flow interactions. The proposed approach is universally applicable to objects made from arbitrarily scaled ellipsoid primitives at arbitrary aerodynamic attitude and angular rate. The use of a component-based aerodynamic modelling approach increases efficiency by allowing selective inclusion of different physics models at run-time and allows extensibility through the development of new models. Insight into the numerical stability of the model under first order fixed-time step integration schemes is provided by stability analysis of the drag component. The compute cost of model components and functions is evaluated and compared against numerical benchmarks. Model static outputs are verified against theoretical expectations and dynamic behaviour using falling plate data from the literature. The model is applied to a range of case studies to demonstrate the efficacy of its application in extensibility, ease of use, and low computational cost. Dynamically complex multi-body systems can be implemented in a transparent and efficient manner, and we successfully demonstrate large scenes with hundreds of objects interacting with diverse flow fields.

Keywords: aerodynamics, real-time simulation, low-order model, flight dynamics

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Authors: Saeed Poormoaied

Abstract:

Perishability and developing an intelligent control policy for perishable items are the major concerns of marketing managers in a supply chain. In this study, we address a two-echelon supply chain problem for perishable items with a single vendor and a single buyer. The buyer adopts an aged-based continuous review policy which works by taking both the stock level and the aging process of items into account. The vendor works under the warehouse framework, where its lot size is determined with respect to the batch size of the buyer. The model holds for a positive and fixed lead time for the buyer, and zero lead time for the vendor. The demand follows a Poisson process and any unmet demand is lost. We provide exact analytic expressions for the operational characteristics of the system by using the renewal reward theorem. Items have a fixed lifetime after which they become unusable and are disposed of from the buyer's system. The age of items starts when they are unpacked and ready for the consumption at the buyer. When items are held by the vendor, there is no aging process which results in no perishing at the vendor's site. The model is developed under the centralized framework, which takes the expected profit of both vendor and buyer into consideration. The goal is to determine the optimal policy parameters under the service level constraint at the retailer's site. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of the key input parameters on the expected profit and order quantity in the supply chain. The efficiency of the proposed age-based policy is also evaluated through a numerical study. Our results show that when the unit perishing cost is negligible, a significant cost saving is achieved.

Keywords: two-echelon supply chain, perishable items, age-based policy, renewal reward theorem

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Authors: Karim S. Hassan, Hisham M. Hamed, Yassmine A. Fahmy, Ahmed F. Shalash

Abstract:

The mismatch between in-phase and quadrature signals in Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems, such as DVB-T2, results in a severe degradation in performance. Several general solutions have been proposed in the past, but these are largely computationally intensive, leading to complex implementations. In this paper, we propose a relatively simple iterative solution, which provides good results in relatively few iterations, using fixed precision arithmetic. An additional advantage is that complex digital blocks, such as dividers and square root, are not required. Thus, the proposed solution may be implemented in relatively simple hardware.

Keywords: OFDM, DVB-T2, I/Q imbalance, I/Q mismatch, iterative method, fixed point, reduced complexity

Procedia PDF Downloads 512

Authors: Mohamed Elassaly

Abstract:

The damage status of RC buildings is greatly influenced by the characteristics of the imposed ground motion. Peak Ground Acceleration and frequency contents are considered the main two factors that affect ground motion characteristics; hence, affecting the seismic response of RC structures and consequently their damage state. A detailed investigation on the combined effects of these two factors on damage assessment of RC buildings, is carried out. Twenty one earthquake records are analyzed and arranged into three groups, according to their frequency contents. These records are used in an investigation to define the expected damage state that would be attained by RC buildings, if subjected to varying ground motion characteristics. The damage assessment is conducted through examining drift ratios and damage indices of the overall structure and the significant structural components of RC building. Base and story shear of RC building model, are also investigated, for cases when the model is subjected to the chosen twenty one earthquake records. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed on a 2-dimensional model of a 12-story R.C. building.

Keywords: damage, frequency content, ground motion, PGA, RC building, seismic

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Gebrehiwot H., Giorgis Bahita

Abstract:

Firms in Africa experience less financial market in comparison to other emerging and developed countries, thus lagging behind the rest of the world in terms of innovation and growth. Though there are different factors to be considered, underdeveloped financial systems take the lion's share in hindering firm innovation and growth in Africa. Insufficient capacity to innovate is one of the problems facing African businesses. Moreover, a critical challenge faced by firms in Africa is access to finance and the inability of financially constrained firms to grow. Only little is known about how different sources of finance affect firm innovation and growth in Africa, specifically the formal and informal finance effect on firm innovation and growth. This study's aim is to address this gap by using formal and informal finance for working capital and fixed capital and its role in firm innovation and firm growth using firm-level data from the World Bank enterprise survey 2006-2019 with a total of 5661 sample firms from 14 countries based on available data on the selected variables. Additionally, this study examines factors for accessing credit from a formal financial institution. The logit model is used to examine the effect of finance on a firm’s innovation and factors to access formal finance, while the Ordinary List Square (OLS) regression mode is used to investigate the effect of finance on firm growth. 2SLS instrumental variables are used to address the possible endogeneity problem in firm growth and finance-innovation relationships. A result from the logistic regression indicates that both formal and informal finance used for working capital and investment in fixed capital was found to have a significant positive association with product and process innovation. In the case of finance and growth, finding show that positive association of both formal and informal financing to working capital and new investment in fixed capital though the informal has positive relations to firm growth as measured by sale growth but no significant association as measured by employment growth. Formal finance shows more magnitude of effect on innovation and growth when firms use formal finance to finance investment in fixed capital, while informal finance show less compared to formal finance and this confirms previous studies as informal is mainly used for working capital in underdeveloped economies like Africa. The factors that determine credit access: Age, firm size, managerial experience, exporting, gender, and foreign ownership are found to have significant determinant factors in accessing credit from formal and informal sources among the selected sample countries.

Keywords: formal finance, informal finance, innovation, growth

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Authors: A. Alao Olumuyiwa

Abstract:

Health hazards reported to be associated with exposure to electromagnetic radiations which include brain tumors, genotoxic effects, neurological effects, immune system deregulation, allergic responses and some cardiovascular effects are discussed under a closed tabular model in this study. This review however showed that there is strong and robust evidence that chronic exposures to electromagnetic frequency across the spectrum, through strength, consistency, biological plausibility and many dose-response relationships, may result in brain cancer and other carcinogenic disease symptoms. There is therefore no safe threshold because of the genotoxic nature of the mechanism that may however be involved. The discussed study explains that the cell phone has induced effects upon the blood –brain barrier permeability and the cerebellum exposure to continuous long hours RF radiation may result in significant increase in albumin extravasations. A physical Biomodeling approach is however employed to review this health effects using Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) of different GSM machines to critically examine the symptoms such as a decreased loco motor activity, increased grooming and reduced memory functions in a variety of animal spices in classified grouped and sub grouped models.

Keywords: brain cancer, electromagnetic radiations, physical biomodeling, specific absorption rate (SAR)

Procedia PDF Downloads 317