Search results for: Static synchronous series compensator (SSSC)

Authors: Seyed Abolhassan Naeini, Hamed Yekehdehghan

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Shallow foundations cannot be used when the bedding soil is soft. A suitable method for constructing foundations on soft soil is to employ pile groups to transfer the load to the bottom layers. The present research used results from tests carried out in northern Iran (Langarud) and the FLAC3D software to model a pile group for investigating the effects of various parameters on pile cap settlement under static and seismic conditions. According to the results, changes in the strength parameters of the soil, groundwater level, and the length of and distance between the piles affect settlement differently.

Keywords: FLACD 3D software, pile group, settlement, soil

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Authors: Aswathi Thrivikraman, S. Advaith

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The study is aimed at designing encoders for deciphering intricacies in time series data by redescribing the dynamics operating on a lower-dimensional manifold. A semi-supervised LSTM autoencoder is devised and investigated to see if the latent representation of the time series data can better forecast the data. End-to-end training of the LSTM autoencoder, together with another LSTM network that is connected to the latent space, forces the hidden states of the encoder to represent the most meaningful latent variables relevant for forecasting. Furthermore, the study compares the predictions with those of a traditional seq2seq model.

Keywords: LSTM, autoencoder, forecasting, seq2seq model

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Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

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This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model

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Authors: Marina Benito-Parejo, Raul Perez-Lopez, Miguel Herraiz, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, Cesar Martinez

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Persistency, long-term memory and randomness are intrinsic properties of time-series of earthquakes. The Rescaled Range Analysis (RS-Analysis) was introduced by Hurst in 1956 and modified by Mandelbrot and Wallis in 1964. This method represents a simple and elegant analysis which determines the range of variation of one natural property (the seismic energy released in this case) in a time interval. Despite the simplicity, there is complexity inherent in the property measured. The cumulative curve of the energy released in time is the well-known fractal geometry of a devil’s staircase. This geometry is used for determining the maximum and minimum value of the range, which is normalized by the standard deviation. The rescaled range obtained obeys a power-law with the time, and the exponent is the Hurst value. Depending on this value, time-series can be classified in long-term or short-term memory. Hence, an algorithm has been developed for compiling the RS-Analysis for time series of earthquakes by days. Completeness time distribution and locally stationarity of the time series are required. The interest of this analysis is their application for a complex seismic crisis where different earthquakes take place in clusters in a short period. Therefore, the Hurst exponent has been obtained for the seismic crisis of Alhoceima (Mediterranean Sea) of January-March, 2016, where at least five medium-sized earthquakes were triggered. According to the values obtained from the Hurst exponent for each cluster, a different mechanical origin can be detected, corroborated by the focal mechanisms calculated by the official institutions. Therefore, this type of analysis not only allows an approach to a greater understanding of a seismic series but also makes possible to discern different types of seismic origins.

Keywords: Alhoceima crisis, earthquake time series, Hurst exponent, rescaled range analysis

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Authors: Tamas Hartvanyi, Zoltan Andras Nagy, Miklos Szabo

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The dynamic and static capacity are two opposing aspect of warehouse design. Static capacity optimization aims to maximize the space-usage for goods storing, while dynamic capacity needs more free place to handling them. They are opposing by the building structure and the area utilization. According to Pareto principle: the 80% of the goods are the 20% of the variety. From the origin of this statement, it worth to store the big amount of same products by fulfill the space with minimal corridors, meanwhile the rest 20% of goods have the 80% variety of the whole range, so there is more important to be fast-reachable instead of the space utilizing, what makes the space fulfillment numbers worse. The warehouse design decisions made in present practice by intuitive and empiric impressions, the planning method is formed to one selected technology, making this way the structure of the warehouse homogeny. Of course the result can’t be optimal for the inhomogeneous demands. A new innovative model based on our research will be introduced in this paper to describe the technic capacities, what makes possible to define optimal cluster of technology. It is able to optimize the space fulfillment and the dynamic operation together with this cluster application.

Keywords: warehouse, warehouse capacity, warehouse design method, warehouse optimization

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Authors: Abiodun Ayodele Sanyaolu

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The research was carried out to investigate the time series analysis on quarterly production of fruit juice at the National Horticultural Research Institute Ibadan from 2010 to 2018. Documentary method of data collection was used, and the method of least square and moving average were used in the analysis. From the calculation and the graph, it was glaring that there was increase, decrease, and uniform movements in both the graph of the original data and the tabulated quarter values of the original data. Time series analysis was used to detect the trend in the highest number of fruit juice and it appears to be good over a period of time and the methods used to forecast are additive and multiplicative models. Since it was observed that the production of fruit juice is usually high in January of every year, it is strongly advised that National Horticultural Research Institute should make more provision for fruit juice storage outside this period of the year.

Keywords: fruit juice, least square, multiplicative models, time series

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Authors: M. Jalali Azizpour, V.Tavvaf, E. Akhlaghi, H. Mohammadi Majd, A. Shirani, S. M. Moravvej, M. Kazemi, A. R. Aboudi Asl, A. Jaderi

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The static and corrosion behavior of the bridge using for pipelines in the south of country have been evaluated. The bridge was constructed more than 40 years ago on the Karoon River. Mentioned bridge is located in Khuzestan province and at a distance of 15 km east from the suburbs of Ahwaz. In order to determine the mechanical properties, the experimental tools such as measuring the thickness and static simulations based on the actual load were used. In addition, the metallurgical studies were used to achieve a rate of corrosion of pipes in the river and in the river bed. The aim of this project is to determine the remaining life of the bridge using mechanical and metallurgical studies.

Keywords: FEM, stress, corrosion, bridge

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Authors: Hanan Eltayeb, Reem Al Refaie

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To be able to connect and relate to shows spoken in a foreign language, advanced learners must understand not only linguistics inferences but also cultural, metacognitive, and pragmatic connotations in colloquial Egyptian TV series. These connotations are needed to both understand the different facets of the dramas put before them, and they’re also consistently grown and formulated through watching these shows. The inferences have become a staple in the Egyptian colloquial culture over the years, making their way into day-to-day conversations as Egyptians use them to speak, relate, joke, and connect with each other, without having known one another from previous times. As for advanced learners, they need to understand these inferences not only to watch these shows, but also to be able to converse with Egyptians on a level that surpasses the formal, or standard. When faced with some of the somewhat recent shows on the Egyptian screens, learners faced challenges in understanding pragmatics, cultural, and religious background of the target language and consequently not able to interact effectively with a native speaker in real-life situations. This study aims to enhance the linguistic and cultural proficiency of learners through studying two genres of TV Colloquial Egyptian series. Study samples derived from two recent comedian and social Egyptian series ('The Seventh Neighbor' سابع جار, and 'Nelly and Sherihan' نيللي و شريهان). When learners watch such series, they are usually faced with a problem understanding inferences that have to do with social, religious, and political events that are addressed in the series. Using discourse analysis of the sematic, semantic, pragmatic, cultural, and linguistic characteristics of the target language, some major deductions were highlighted and repeated, showing a pattern in both. The research paper concludes that there are many sets of lingual and para-lingual phrases, idioms, and proverbs to be acquired and used effectively by teaching these series. The strategies adopted in the study can be applied to different types of media, like movies, TV shows, and even cartoons, to enhance student proficiency.

Keywords: Egyptian series, culture, linguistic competence, pragmatics, semantics, social

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Authors: Oyku Yenen

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The notion of biopolitics, as studied by such intellectuals as Foucault, Agamben, and Negri, is an important guide for comprehending the current understanding of politics. While Foucault evaluates biopolitics as a survival policy, Giorgio Agamben, German legist, identifies the theory with death. Agamben claims the fact we can all considered to be homo sacer who are abandoned by the law, left in the field of exception, and whose killing does not require punishment. Agamben defines the person who is tried by the public for committing a crime but is not allowed to be sacrificed and whose killing is not considered a crime, as 'homo sacer'. This study analyzes how the concept of 'homo sacer' is made visible in TV series such as Çemberimde Gül Oya (Cagan Irmak, 2005-2005), Hatırla Sevgili (Ummu Burhan, 2006-2008), Bu Kalp Seni Unutur Mu? (Aydin Bulut, 2009-1010) all of which portray the period Turkey's 1980 military coup, within the framework of Agamben's thoughts and notions about biopolitics. When the main plots of these abovementioned TV series, which constitute the universe of this study, are scrutinized closely, they lay out the understanding of politics that has existed throughout history and prevails today. Although there is a large number of TV series on the coup of 1980, these three series are the only main productions that specifically focused on the event itself. Our final analysis will reveal that the concepts of homo sacer, bare life, exception, camp have been embodied in different ways in these three series. In these three series, which all deal with similar subjects using differing perspectives, the dominant understanding of politics is clearly conveyed to the audience. In all three series, the reigning power always decides on the exceptions, those who will live, those who will die, and those who will be ignored by law. Such characters as Mehmet, Sinan, Yıldız, Deniz, Defne, all of which we come across in these series, are on trial as a criminals of thought and are subjected to various forms of torture while isolated in an area where they are virtually deprived of law. Their citizenship rights are revoked. All of them are left alone with their bare lives (zoe).

Keywords: bare life, biopolitics, homo sacer, sovereign power, state of exception

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Authors: J. Hrabovský, M. Chabičovský, J. Horský

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Water spray cooling is a technique typically used in heat treatment and other metallurgical processes where controlled temperature regimes are required. Water spray cooling is used in static (without movement) or dynamic (with movement of the steel plate) regimes. The static regime is notable for the fixed position of the hot steel plate and fixed spray nozzle. This regime is typical for quenching systems focused on heat treatment of the steel plate. The second application of spray cooling is the dynamic regime. The dynamic regime is notable for its static section cooling system and moving steel plate. This regime is used in rolling and finishing mills. The fixed position of cooling sections with nozzles and the movement of the steel plate produce nonhomogeneous water distribution on the steel plate. The length of cooling sections and placement of water nozzles in combination with the nonhomogeneity of water distribution leads to discontinued or interrupted cooling conditions. The impact of static and dynamic regimes on cooling intensity and the heat transfer coefficient during the cooling process of steel plates is an important issue. Heat treatment of steel is accompanied by oxide scale growth. The oxide scale layers can significantly modify the cooling properties and intensity during the cooling. The combination of the static and dynamic (section) regimes with the variable thickness of the oxide scale layer on the steel surface impact the final cooling intensity. The study of the influence of the oxide scale layers with different cooling regimes was carried out using experimental measurements and numerical analysis. The experimental measurements compared both types of cooling regimes and the cooling of scale-free surfaces and oxidized surfaces. A numerical analysis was prepared to simulate the cooling process with different conditions of the section and samples with different oxide scale layers.

Keywords: heat transfer coefficient, numerical analysis, oxide layer, spray cooling

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Authors: O. Punjarat, S. Chucheepsakul, T. Phanyasahachart

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This paper focuses on a variational formulation of large amplitude free vibration behavior of a very sag marine cable. In the static equilibrium state, the marine cable has a very large sag configuration. In the motion state, the marine cable is assumed to vibrate in in-plane motion with large amplitude from the static equilibrium position. The total virtual work-energy of the marine cable at the dynamic state is formulated which involves the virtual strain energy due to axial deformation, the virtual work done by effective weight, and the inertia forces. The equations of motion for the large amplitude free vibration of marine cable are obtained by taking into account the difference between the Euler’s equation in the static state and the displaced state. Based on the Galerkin finite element procedure, the linear and nonlinear stiffness matrices, and mass matrices of the marine cable are obtained and the eigenvalue problem is solved. The natural frequency spectrum and the large amplitude free vibration behavior of marine cable are presented.

Keywords: axial deformation, free vibration, Galerkin finite element method, large amplitude, variational method

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Authors: G. Akgun, I. Algul, H. Kurtaran

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In this paper geometrically nonlinear static behavior of laminated composite hollow super-elliptic beams is investigated using generalized differential quadrature method. Super-elliptic beam can have both oval and elliptic cross-sections by adjusting parameters in super-ellipse formulation (also known as Lamé curves). Equilibrium equations of super-elliptic beam are obtained using the virtual work principle. Geometric nonlinearity is taken into account using von-Kármán nonlinear strain-displacement relations. Spatial derivatives in strains are expressed with the generalized differential quadrature method. Transverse shear effect is considered through the first-order shear deformation theory. Static equilibrium equations are solved using Newton-Raphson method. Several composite super-elliptic beam problems are solved with the proposed method. Effects of layer orientations of composite material, boundary conditions, ovality and ellipticity on bending behavior are investigated.

Keywords: generalized differential quadrature, geometric nonlinearity, laminated composite, super-elliptic cross-section

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Authors: MohammadSadegh SaeediFakher, Jafar Rouzegar, Hassan Assaee

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In this research, mechanical behavior and energy absorption capacity of empty and rubber-filled brazen circular tubes under quasi-static axial loading are investigated, experimentally. The brazen tubes were cut out of commercially available brazen circular tubes with the same length and diameter. Some of the specimens were filled with rubbers with three different shores and also, an empty tube was prepared. The specimens were axially compressed between two rigid plates in a quasi-static process using a Zwick testing machine. Load-displacement diagrams and energy absorption of the tested tubes were extracted from experimental data. The results show that filling the brazen tubes with rubber causes those to absorb more energy and the energy absorption of specimens are increased by increasing the shore of rubbers. In comparison to the empty tube, the first fold for the rubber-filled tubes occurs at lower load and it can be concluded that the rubber-filled tubes are better energy absorbers than the empty tubes. Also, in contrast with the empty tubes, the tubes that were filled with lower rubber shore deform asymmetrically.

Keywords: axial compression, quasi-static loading, folding, energy absorbers, rubber-filled tubes

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Authors: Pui Shan Wong, Kosuke Tashiro, Satoru Kuhara, Sachiyo Aburatani

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Functional genomics and gene regulation inference has readily expanded our knowledge and understanding of gene interactions with regards to expression regulation. With the advancement of transcriptome sequencing in time-series comes the ability to study the sequential changes of the transcriptome. This method presented here works to augment existing regulation networks accumulated in literature with transcriptome data gathered from time-series experiments to construct a sequential representation of transcription factor activity. This method is applied on a time-series RNA-Seq data set from Escherichia coli as it transitions from growth to stationary phase over five hours. Investigations are conducted on the various metabolic activities in gene regulation processes by taking advantage of the correlation between regulatory gene pairs to examine their activity on a dynamic network. Especially, the changes in metabolic activity during phase transition are analyzed with focus on the pagP gene as well as other associated transcription factors. The visualization of the sequential transcriptional activity is used to describe the change in metabolic pathway activity originating from the pagP transcription factor, phoP. The results show a shift from amino acid and nucleic acid metabolism, to energy metabolism during the transition to stationary phase in E. coli.

Keywords: Escherichia coli, gene regulation, network, time-series

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Authors: Thrivikraman Aswathi, S. Advaith

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As there can be cases where the use of real data is somehow limited, such as when it is hard to get access to a large volume of real data, we need to go for synthetic data generation. This produces high-quality synthetic data while maintaining the statistical properties of a specific dataset. In the present work, a generative adversarial network (GAN) is trained to produce multivariate time series (MTS) data since the MTS is now being gathered more often in various real-world systems. Furthermore, the GAN-generated MTS data is fed into a transformer-based deep learning architecture that carries out the data categorization into predefined classes. Further, the model is evaluated across various distinct domains by generating corresponding MTS data.

Keywords: GAN, transformer, classification, multivariate time series

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Authors: Essa Abrahim Abdulgader Saleem, Thien-My Dao

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The main objective of this paper is to optimize series-parallel system reliability using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and statistical analysis; considering system reliability constraints which involve the redundant numbers of selected components, total cost, and total weight. To perform this work, firstly the mathematical model which maximizes system reliability subject to maximum system cost and maximum system weight constraints is presented; secondly, a statistical analysis is used to optimize GA parameters, and thirdly GA is used to optimize series-parallel systems reliability. The objective is to determine the strategy choosing the redundancy level for each subsystem to maximize the overall system reliability subject to total cost and total weight constraints. Finally, the series-parallel system case study reliability optimization results are showed, and comparisons with the other previous results are presented to demonstrate the performance of our GA.

Keywords: reliability, optimization, meta-heuristic, genetic algorithm, redundancy

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Authors: Saleh Elawgali

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Current spectrums of a four pole-pair, 400 kW induction machine were calculated for the cases of full symmetry and static eccentricity. The calculations involve integration of 93 electrical plus four mechanical ordinary differential equations. Electrical equations account for variable inductances affected by slotting and eccentricities. The calculations were followed by Fourier analysis of the stator currents in steady state operation. Zooms of the current spectrums, around the 50 Hz fundamental harmonic as well as of the main slot harmonic zone, were included. The spectrums included refer to both calculated and measured currents.

Keywords: diagnostic, harmonic, induction machine, spectrum

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Authors: Victor N. Anisimov, Igor E. Serov, Ksenia M. Kolkova, Natalia V. Galkina

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The problem of memorability of the advertising content is closely connected with the key issues of neuromarketing. The memorability of the advertising content contributes to the marketing effectiveness of the promoted product. Significant directions of studying the phenomenon of memorability are the memorability of the brand (detected through the memorability of the logo) and the memorability of the product offer (detected through the memorization of dynamic audiovisual advertising content - commercial). The aim of this work is to reveal the predictors of memorization of static and dynamic audiovisual stimuli (logos and commercials). An important direction of the research was revealing differences in psychophysiological correlates of memorability between static and dynamic audiovisual stimuli. We assumed that static and dynamic images are perceived in different ways and may have a difference in the memorization process. Objective methods of recording psychophysiological parameters while watching static and dynamic audiovisual materials are well suited to achieve the aim. The electroencephalography (EEG) method was performed with the aim of identifying correlates of the memorability of various stimuli in the electrical activity of the cerebral cortex. All stimuli (in the groups of statics and dynamics separately) were divided into 2 groups – remembered and not remembered based on the results of the questioning method. The questionnaires were filled out by survey participants after viewing the stimuli not immediately, but after a time interval (for detecting stimuli recorded through long-term memorization). Using statistical method, we developed the classifier (statistical model) that predicts which group (remembered or not remembered) stimuli gets, based on psychophysiological perception. The result of the statistical model was compared with the results of the questionnaire. Conclusions: Predictors of the memorability of static and dynamic stimuli have been identified, which allows prediction of which stimuli will have a higher probability of remembering. Further developments of this study will be the creation of stimulus memory model with the possibility of recognizing the stimulus as previously seen or new. Thus, in the process of remembering the stimulus, it is planned to take into account the stimulus recognition factor, which is one of the most important tasks for neuromarketing.

Keywords: memory, commercials, neuromarketing, EEG, branding

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Authors: Yasmeen Coaxum

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The year 2020 became synonymous with the words “Emergency Remote Teaching,” which was imposed upon educators during the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, teachers were compelled to find new and engaging ways to educate their students outside of the face-to-face classroom setting. Now online instruction has become more of the norm rather than a way to manage educational expectations during a crisis. Therefore, implementing a strategic way to create online environments for students to thrive, create, and fully engage in their learning process is essential. The Synchronous Online Flipped Learning Approach or SOFLA® is a distance learning model that most closely replicates actual classroom teaching. SOFLA® includes structured, interactive, multimodal activities in an eight-step learning cycle with both asynchronous and synchronous components that foster autonomous and interactive learning among today’s online learners. The results of a pilot study in an Intensive English Program at a university, using SOFLA® methodology to facilitate podcasting in an online learning environment will be shared. Previous findings on student-produced podcasting projects have shown that students felt they improved their pronunciation, vocabulary, and speaking skills. However, few if any studies have been conducted on using a structured online flipped learning approach to facilitate such projects. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to assess the effect of using the SOFLA® framework to enhance optimum engagement in the online environment while using podcasts as the primary tool of instruction. Through data from interviews, questionnaires, and the results of formative and summative assessments, this study also investigates the affective and academic impact this flipped learning method combined with podcasting has on the students in terms of speaking confidence and vocabulary retention, and production. The steps of SOFLA will be illustrated, a video demonstration of the Anchor podcasting app will be shown, and final student projects and questionnaire responses will be shared. The specific context is a 14-week advanced level conversation and listening class. Participants vary in age but are all adult language learners representing a diverse array of countries.

Keywords: mall online flipped learning, podcasting, productive vocabulary

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Authors: Wullapa Wongsinlatam

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Back propagation algorithm (BP) is a widely used technique in artificial neural network and has been used as a tool for solving the time series problems, such as decreasing training time, maximizing the ability to fall into local minima, and optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. This paper proposes an improvement of a BP technique which is called IM-COH algorithm (IM-COH). By combining IM-COH algorithm with cuckoo search algorithm (CS), the result is cuckoo search improved control output hidden layer algorithm (CS-IM-COH). This new algorithm has a better ability in optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias than the original BP algorithm. In this research, the algorithm of CS-IM-COH is compared with the original BP, the IM-COH, and the original BP with CS (CS-BP). Furthermore, the selected benchmarks, four time series samples, are shown in this research for illustration. The research shows that the CS-IM-COH algorithm give the best forecasting results compared with the selected samples.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, back propagation algorithm, time series, local minima problem, metaheuristic optimization

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Authors: Omar Alzeley, Sergey Utev

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Minimizing a constrained multivariate function is the fundamental of Machine learning, and these algorithms are at the core of data mining and data visualization techniques. The decision function that maps input points to output points is based on the result of optimization. This optimization is the central of learning theory. One approach to complex systems where the dynamics of the system is inferred by a statistical analysis of the fluctuations in time of some associated observable is time series analysis. The purpose of this paper is a mathematical transition from the autoregressive model of classical time series to the matrix formalization of quantum theory. Firstly, we have proposed a quantum time series model (QTS). Although Hamiltonian technique becomes an established tool to detect a deterministic chaos, other approaches emerge. The quantum probabilistic technique is used to motivate the construction of our QTS model. The QTS model resembles the quantum dynamic model which was applied to financial data. Secondly, various statistical methods, including machine learning algorithms such as the Kalman filter algorithm, are applied to estimate and analyses the unknown parameters of the model. Finally, simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been used to support our investigations. The proposed model has been examined by using real and simulated data. We establish the relation between quantum statistical machine and quantum time series via random matrix theory. It is interesting to note that the primary focus of the application of QTS in the field of quantum chaos was to find a model that explain chaotic behaviour. Maybe this model will reveal another insight into quantum chaos.

Keywords: machine learning, simulation techniques, quantum probability, tensor product, time series

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Authors: L. Mallesha, P. Mallu, B. Veeresh

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In the present study, 2, 6-diflurobenzohydrazide and 4-fluorophenylisothiocyanate were used as the starting materials to synthesize 5-phenyl-N3-(4-fluorophenyl)-4H-1, 2, 4-triazole-3, 4-diamine. Further, compound 5-phenyl-N3-(4-fluorophenyl)-4H-1, 2, 4-triazole-3,4-diamine reacted with fluoro substituted benzaldehydes to yield a series of Schiff bases. All the final compounds were characterized using IR, 1H NMR, 13C NMR, MS and elemental analyses. New compounds were evaluated for their antiproliferative effect using the MTT assay method against four human cancer cell lines (K562, COLO-205, MDA-MB231, and IMR-32) for the time period of 24 h. Among the series, few compounds showed good activity on all cell lines, whereas the other compounds in the series exhibited moderate activity.

Keywords: Schiff bases, MTT assay, antiproliferative activity, human cancer cell lines, 1, 2, 4-triazoles

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Authors: Adeola Adenikinju, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Lateef O. Akinpelu, Dilinna L. Nwobi

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Since the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007), the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has made public its fiscal budget and the subsequent implementation report. A critical review of these documents shows significant variations in the five macroeconomic variables which are inputs in each Presidential budget; oil Production target (mbpd), oil price ($), Foreign exchange rate(N/$), and Gross Domestic Product growth rate (%) and inflation rate (%). This results in underperformance of the Federal budget expected output in terms of non-oil and oil revenue aggregates. This paper evaluates first the existing variance between budgeted and actuals, then the relationship and causality between the determinants of Federal fiscal budget assumptions, and finally the determinants of FGN’s Gross Oil Revenue. The paper employed the use of descriptive statistics, the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and a Profit oil probabilistic model to achieve these objectives. This model permits for both the static and dynamic effect(s) of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable, unlike a static model that accounts for static or fixed effect(s) only. It offers a technique for checking the existence of a long-run relationship between variables, unlike other tests of cointegration, such as the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, which consider only non-stationary series that are integrated of the same order. Finally, even with small sample size, the ARDL model is known to generate a valid result, for it is the dependent variable and is the explanatory variable. The results showed that there is a long-run relationship between oil revenue as a proxy for budget performance and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a short-run relationship between oil revenue and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a long-run relationship between non-oil revenue and its determinants; inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and foreign exchange rate. The grangers’ causality test results show that there is a mono-directional causality between oil revenue and its determinants. The Federal budget assumptions only explain 68% of oil revenue and 62% of non-oil revenue. There is a mono-directional causality between non-oil revenue and its determinants. The Profit oil Model describes production sharing contracts, joint ventures, and modified carrying arrangements as the greatest contributors to FGN’s gross oil revenue. This provides empirical justification for the selected macroeconomic variables used in the Federal budget design and performance evaluation. The research recommends other variables, debt and money supply, be included in the Federal budget design to explain the Federal budget revenue performance further.

Keywords: ARDL, budget performance, oil price, oil quantity, oil revenue

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Authors: Sean Gay, Cristina Tat

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This presentation will detail how a university in Western Japan has implemented its English for Academic Purposes (EAP) program during the onset of CoViD-19 in the spring semester of 2020. In the spring semester of 2020, after a 2 week delay, all courses within the School of Policy Studies EAP Program at Kwansei Gakuin University were offered in an online asynchronous format. The rationale for this decision was not to disadvantage students who might not have access to devices necessary for taking part in synchronous online lessons. The course coordinators were tasked with consolidating the materials originally designed for face-to-face14 week courses for a 12 week asynchronous online semester and with uploading the modified course materials to Luna, the university’s network, which is a modified version of Blackboard. Based on research to determine the social and academic impacts of this CoViD-19 ERT approach on the students who took part in this EAP program, this presentation explains how future curriculum design and implementation can be managed in a post-CoViD world. There are a wide variety of lessons that were salient. The role of the classroom as a social institution was very prominent; however, awareness of cognitive burdens and strategies to mitigate that burden may be more valuable for teachers. The lessons learned during this period of ERT can help teachers moving forward.

Keywords: asynchronous online learning, emergency remote teaching (ERT), online curriculum design, synchronous online learning

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Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

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Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

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Authors: Andres F. Ramirez, Carlos F. Valencia

Abstract:

The increasing interest in renewable energies strategies application and the path for diminishing the use of carbon related energy sources have encouraged the development of novel strategies for integration of solar energy into the electricity network. A correct inclusion of the fluctuating energy output of a photovoltaic (PV) energy system into an electric grid requires improvements in the forecasting and simulation methodologies for solar energy potential, and the understanding not only of the mean value of the series but the associated underlying stochastic process. We present a methodology for synthetic generation of solar irradiance (shortwave flux) and air temperature bivariate time series based on copula functions to represent the cross-dependence and temporal structure of the data. We explore the advantages of using this nonlinear time series method over traditional approaches that use a transformation of the data to normal distributions as an intermediate step. The use of copulas gives flexibility to represent the serial variability of the real data on the simulation and allows having more control on the desired properties of the data. We use discrete zero mass density distributions to assess the nature of solar irradiance, alongside vector generalized linear models for the bivariate time series time dependent distributions. We found that the copula autoregressive methodology used, including the zero mass characteristics of the solar irradiance time series, generates a significant improvement over state of the art strategies. These results will help to better understand the fluctuating nature of solar energy forecasting, the underlying stochastic process, and quantify the potential of a photovoltaic (PV) energy generating system integration into a country electricity network. Experimental analysis and real data application substantiate the usage and convenience of the proposed methodology to forecast solar irradiance time series and solar energy across northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere, and equatorial zones.

Keywords: copula autoregressive, solar irradiance forecasting, solar energy forecasting, time series generation

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Authors: Xiao Zhang, Wensheng Xiao, Junguo Cui, Hongmin Wang

Abstract:

Submersible permanent magnet linear synchronous motors (SPMLSMs) are electromagnetic devices, which can directly drive plunger pump to obtain the crude oil. Those motors have been gradually applied in oil fields due to high thrust force density and high efficiency. Since the force performance closely depends on the concrete structural parameters, the seven different structural parameters are investigated in detail. This paper presents an optimum design of an SPMLSM to minimize the detent force and maximize the thrust by using design of experiment (DOE) and genetic algorithm (GA). The three significant structural parameters (air-gap length, slot width, pole-arc coefficient) are separately screened using 27 1/16 fractional factorial design (FFD) to investigate the significant effect of seven parameters used in this research on the force performance. Response surface methodology (RSM) is well adapted to make analytical model of thrust and detent force with constraints of corresponding significant parameters and enable objective function to be easily created, respectively. GA is performed as a searching tool to search for the Pareto-optimal solutions. By finite element analysis, the proposed PMLSM shows merits in improving thrust and reducing the detent force dramatically.

Keywords: optimization, force performance, design of experiment (DOE), genetic algorithm (GA)

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Authors: J. Ismail, F. Zaïri, M. Naït-Abdelaziz, Z. Azari

Abstract:

In this work, a combined approach of continuum damage mechanics (CDM) and fracture mechanics is applied to model a glass plate behavior under static indentation. A spherical indenter is used and a CDM based constitutive model with an anisotropic damage tensor was selected and implemented into a finite element code to study the damage of glass. Various regions with critical damage values were predicted in good agreement with the experimental observations in the literature. In these regions, the directions of crack propagation, including both cracks initiating on the surface as well as in the bulk, were predicted using the strain energy density factor.

Keywords: finite element modeling, continuum damage mechanics, indentation, cracks

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Xu Chen, Zhao Caiqi

Abstract:

In addition to the advantages of light weight, resistant corrosion and ease of processing, aluminum is also applied to the long-span spatial structures. However, the elastic modulus of aluminum is lower than that of the steel. This paper combines the high performance aluminum honeycomb panel with the aluminum latticed shell, forming a new panel-and-rod composite shell structure. Through comparative analysis between the static and dynamic performance, the conclusion that the structure of composite shell is noticeably superior to the structure combined before.

Keywords: combination of aluminum honeycomb panel, rod latticed shell, dynamic performence, response spectrum analysis, seismic properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 449

Authors: Riza Adriyani, Tommy Apriantono, Suprijanto

Abstract:

Objective: Several studies have revealed that flatfoot posture has some effect on altered lower limb muscle function, in comparison to normal foot posture. There were still limited studies to examine the effect of fatigue on flatfoot posture in children. Therefore, this study was aimed to find out jumping fatiguing effect on static balance and to compare lower limb muscle function between flatfoot and normal foot in school children. Methods: Thirty junior high school children aged 12 to 14 years took part in this study. Of these all children, 15 had the normal foot (8 males and 7 females) and 15 had flatfoot (6 males and 9 females). Foot posture was classified based on an arch index of the footprint by a foot scanner which calculated the data using AUTOCAD 2013 software. Surface electromyography (EMG) activity was recorded from tibialis anterior, gastrocnemius medialis, and peroneus longus muscles while those participants were standing on one leg barefoot with opened eyes. All participants completed the entire protocol (pre-fatigue data collection, fatigue protocol, and post fatigue data collection) in a single session. Static balance and electromyographic data were collected before and after a functional fatigue protocol. Results: School children with normal foot had arch index 0.25±0.01 whereas those with flatfoot had 0.36±0.01. In fact, there were no significant differences for anthropometric characteristics between children with flatfoot and normal foot. This statistical analysis showed that fatigue could influence static balance in flatfoot school children (p < 0.05), but not in normal foot school children. Based on electromyographic data, the statistical analysis showed that there were significant differences (p < 0.05) of the decreased median frequency on tibialis anterior in flatfoot compared to normal foot school children after fatigue. However, there were no significant differences on the median frequency of gastrocnemius medialis and peroneus longus between both groups. After fatigue, median frequency timing was significantly different (p < 0.05) on tibialis anterior in flatfoot compared to normal foot children and tended to appear earlier on tibialis anterior, gastrocnemius medialis and peroneus longus (at 7s, 8s, 9s) in flatfoot compared to normal foot (at 15s, 11s , 12s). Conclusion: Fatigue influenced static balance and tended to appear earlier on selected lower limb muscles while performing static balance in flatfoot school children. After fatigue, tremor (median frequency decreased) showed more significant differences on tibialis anterior in flatfoot rather than in normal foot school children.

Keywords: fatigue, foot postures, median frequency, static balance

Procedia PDF Downloads 477