Search results for: Trend Detection
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5301

Search results for: Trend Detection

5301 Trend Detection Using Community Rank and Hawkes Process

Authors: Shashank Bhatnagar, W. Wilfred Godfrey

Abstract:

We develop in this paper, an approach to find the trendy topic, which not only considers the user-topic interaction but also considers the community, in which user belongs. This method modifies the previous approach of user-topic interaction to user-community-topic interaction with better speed-up in the range of [1.1-3]. We assume that trend detection in a social network is dependent on two things. The one is, broadcast of messages in social network governed by self-exciting point process, namely called Hawkes process and the second is, Community Rank. The influencer node links to others in the community and decides the community rank based on its PageRank and the number of users links to that community. The community rank decides the influence of one community over the other. Hence, the Hawkes process with the kernel of user-community-topic decides the trendy topic disseminated into the social network.

Keywords: community detection, community rank, Hawkes process, influencer node, pagerank, trend detection

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5300 Trend Analysis of Annual Total Precipitation Data in Konya

Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya

Procedia PDF Downloads 218
5299 Collision Detection Algorithm Based on Data Parallelism

Authors: Zhen Peng, Baifeng Wu

Abstract:

Modern computing technology enters the era of parallel computing with the trend of sustainable and scalable parallelism. Single Instruction Multiple Data (SIMD) is an important way to go along with the trend. It is able to gather more and more computing ability by increasing the number of processor cores without the need of modifying the program. Meanwhile, in the field of scientific computing and engineering design, many computation intensive applications are facing the challenge of increasingly large amount of data. Data parallel computing will be an important way to further improve the performance of these applications. In this paper, we take the accurate collision detection in building information modeling as an example. We demonstrate a model for constructing a data parallel algorithm. According to the model, a complex object is decomposed into the sets of simple objects; collision detection among complex objects is converted into those among simple objects. The resulting algorithm is a typical SIMD algorithm, and its advantages in parallelism and scalability is unparalleled in respect to the traditional algorithms.

Keywords: data parallelism, collision detection, single instruction multiple data, building information modeling, continuous scalability

Procedia PDF Downloads 289
5298 Overview and Future Opportunities of Sarcasm Detection on Social Media Communications

Authors: Samaneh Nadali, Masrah Azrifah Azmi Murad, Nurfadhlina Mohammad Sharef

Abstract:

Sarcasm is a common phenomenon in social media which is a nuanced form of language for stating the opposite of what is implied. Due to the intentional ambiguity, analysis of sarcasm is a difficult task not only for a machine but even for a human. Although sarcasm detection has an important effect on sentiment, it is usually ignored in social media analysis because sarcasm analysis is too complicated. While there is a few systems exist which can detect sarcasm, almost no work has been carried out on a study and the review of the existing work in this area. This survey presents a nearly full image of sarcasm detection techniques and the related fields with brief details. The main contributions of this paper include the illustration of the recent trend of research in the sarcasm analysis and we highlight the gaps and propose a new framework that can be explored.

Keywords: sarcasm detection, sentiment analysis, social media, sarcasm analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 458
5297 Modified CUSUM Algorithm for Gradual Change Detection in a Time Series Data

Authors: Victoria Siriaki Jorry, I. S. Mbalawata, Hayong Shin

Abstract:

The main objective in a change detection problem is to develop algorithms for efficient detection of gradual and/or abrupt changes in the parameter distribution of a process or time series data. In this paper, we present a modified cumulative (MCUSUM) algorithm to detect the start and end of a time-varying linear drift in mean value of a time series data based on likelihood ratio test procedure. The design, implementation and performance of the proposed algorithm for a linear drift detection is evaluated and compared to the existing CUSUM algorithm using different performance measures. An approach to accurately approximate the threshold of the MCUSUM is also provided. Performance of the MCUSUM for gradual change-point detection is compared to that of standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart designed for abrupt shift detection using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of the expected time for detection, the MCUSUM procedure is found to have a better performance than a standard CUSUM chart for detection of the gradual change in mean. The algorithm is then applied and tested to a randomly generated time series data with a gradual linear trend in mean to demonstrate its usefulness.

Keywords: average run length, CUSUM control chart, gradual change detection, likelihood ratio test

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5296 Optimized Parameters for Simultaneous Detection of Cd²⁺, Pb²⁺ and CO²⁺ Ions in Water Using Square Wave Voltammetry on the Unmodified Glassy Carbon Electrode

Authors: K. Sruthi, Sai Snehitha Yadavalli, Swathi Gosh Acharyya

Abstract:

Water is the most crucial element for sustaining life on earth. Increasing water pollution directly or indirectly leads to harmful effects on human life. Most of the heavy metal ions are harmful in their cationic form. These heavy metal ions are released by various activities like disposing of batteries, industrial wastes, automobile emissions, and soil contamination. Ions like (Pb, Co, Cd) are carcinogenic and show many harmful effects when consumed more than certain limits proposed by WHO. The simultaneous detection of the heavy metal ions (Pb, Co, Cd), which are highly toxic, is reported in this study. There are many analytical methods for quantifying, but electrochemical techniques are given high priority because of their sensitivity and ability to detect and recognize lower concentrations. Square wave voltammetry was preferred in electrochemical methods due to the absence of background currents which is interference. Square wave voltammetry was performed on GCE for the quantitative detection of ions. Three electrode system consisting of a glassy carbon electrode as the working electrode (3 mm diameter), Ag/Agcl electrode as the reference electrode, and a platinum wire as the counter electrode was chosen for experimentation. The mechanism of detection was done by optimizing the experimental parameters, namely pH, scan rate, and temperature. Under the optimized conditions, square wave voltammetry was performed for simultaneous detection. Scan rates were varied from 5 mV/s to 100 mV/s and found that at 25 mV/s all the three ions were detected simultaneously with proper peaks at particular stripping potential. The variation of pH from 3 to 8 was done where the optimized pH was taken as pH 5 which holds good for three ions. There was a decreasing trend at starting because of hydrogen gas evolution, and after pH 5 again there was a decreasing trend that is because of hydroxide formation on the surface of the working electrode (GCE). The temperature variation from 25˚C to 45˚C was done where the optimum temperature concerning three ions was taken as 35˚C. Deposition and stripping potentials were given as +1.5 V and -1.5 V, and the resting time of 150 seconds was given. Three ions were detected at stripping potentials of Cd²⁺ at -0.84 V, Pb²⁺ at -0.54 V, and Co²⁺ at -0.44 V. The parameters of detection were optimized on a glassy carbon electrode for simultaneous detection of the ions at lower concentrations by square wave voltammetry.

Keywords: cadmium, cobalt, lead, glassy carbon electrode, square wave anodic stripping voltammetry

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5295 Efficient Signal Detection Using QRD-M Based on Channel Condition in MIMO-OFDM System

Authors: Jae-Jeong Kim, Ki-Ro Kim, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an efficient signal detector that switches M parameter of QRD-M detection scheme is proposed for MIMO-OFDM system. The proposed detection scheme calculates the threshold by 1-norm condition number and then switches M parameter of QRD-M detection scheme according to channel information. If channel condition is bad, the parameter M is set to high value to increase the accuracy of detection. If channel condition is good, the parameter M is set to low value to reduce complexity of detection. Therefore, the proposed detection scheme has better trade off between BER performance and complexity than the conventional detection scheme. The simulation result shows that the complexity of proposed detection scheme is lower than QRD-M detection scheme with similar BER performance.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM, QRD-M, channel condition, BER

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5294 Reduced Complexity of ML Detection Combined with DFE

Authors: Jae-Hyun Ro, Yong-Jun Kim, Chang-Bin Ha, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

In multiple input multiple output-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) systems, many detection schemes have been developed to improve the error performance and to reduce the complexity. Maximum likelihood (ML) detection has optimal error performance but it has very high complexity. Thus, this paper proposes reduced complexity of ML detection combined with decision feedback equalizer (DFE). The error performance of the proposed detection scheme is higher than the conventional DFE. But the complexity of the proposed scheme is lower than the conventional ML detection.

Keywords: detection, DFE, MIMO-OFDM, ML

Procedia PDF Downloads 610
5293 Using Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers to Extract Topic-Independent Sentiment Features for Social Media Bot Detection

Authors: Maryam Heidari, James H. Jones Jr.

Abstract:

Millions of online posts about different topics and products are shared on popular social media platforms. One use of this content is to provide crowd-sourced information about a specific topic, event or product. However, this use raises an important question: what percentage of information available through these services is trustworthy? In particular, might some of this information be generated by a machine, i.e., a bot, instead of a human? Bots can be, and often are, purposely designed to generate enough volume to skew an apparent trend or position on a topic, yet the consumer of such content cannot easily distinguish a bot post from a human post. In this paper, we introduce a model for social media bot detection which uses Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (Google Bert) for sentiment classification of tweets to identify topic-independent features. Our use of a Natural Language Processing approach to derive topic-independent features for our new bot detection model distinguishes this work from previous bot detection models. We achieve 94\% accuracy classifying the contents of data as generated by a bot or a human, where the most accurate prior work achieved accuracy of 92\%.

Keywords: bot detection, natural language processing, neural network, social media

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5292 Cigarette Smoke Detection Based on YOLOV3

Authors: Wei Li, Tuo Yang

Abstract:

In order to satisfy the real-time and accurate requirements of cigarette smoke detection in complex scenes, a cigarette smoke detection technology based on the combination of deep learning and color features was proposed. Firstly, based on the color features of cigarette smoke, the suspicious cigarette smoke area in the image is extracted. Secondly, combined with the efficiency of cigarette smoke detection and the problem of network overfitting, a network model for cigarette smoke detection was designed according to YOLOV3 algorithm to reduce the false detection rate. The experimental results show that the method is feasible and effective, and the accuracy of cigarette smoke detection is up to 99.13%, which satisfies the requirements of real-time cigarette smoke detection in complex scenes.

Keywords: deep learning, computer vision, cigarette smoke detection, YOLOV3, color feature extraction

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5291 An Architecture for New Generation of Distributed Intrusion Detection System Based on Preventive Detection

Authors: H. Benmoussa, A. A. El Kalam, A. Ait Ouahman

Abstract:

The design and implementation of intrusion detection systems (IDS) remain an important area of research in the security of information systems. Despite the importance and reputation of the current intrusion detection systems, their efficiency and effectiveness remain limited as they should include active defense approach to allow anticipating and predicting intrusions before their occurrence. Consequently, they must be readapted. For this purpose we suggest a new generation of distributed intrusion detection system based on preventive detection approach and using intelligent and mobile agents. Our architecture benefits from mobile agent features and addresses some of the issues with centralized and hierarchical models. Also, it presents advantages in terms of increasing scalability and flexibility.

Keywords: Intrusion Detection System (IDS), preventive detection, mobile agents, distributed architecture

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5290 Video Based Ambient Smoke Detection By Detecting Directional Contrast Decrease

Authors: Omair Ghori, Anton Stadler, Stefan Wilk, Wolfgang Effelsberg

Abstract:

Fire-related incidents account for extensive loss of life and material damage. Quick and reliable detection of occurring fires has high real world implications. Whereas a major research focus lies on the detection of outdoor fires, indoor camera-based fire detection is still an open issue. Cameras in combination with computer vision helps to detect flames and smoke more quickly than conventional fire detectors. In this work, we present a computer vision-based smoke detection algorithm based on contrast changes and a multi-step classification. This work accelerates computer vision-based fire detection considerably in comparison with classical indoor-fire detection.

Keywords: contrast analysis, early fire detection, video smoke detection, video surveillance

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5289 Intrusion Detection Techniques in NaaS in the Cloud: A Review

Authors: Rashid Mahmood

Abstract:

The network as a service (NaaS) usage has been well-known from the last few years in the many applications, like mission critical applications. In the NaaS, prevention method is not adequate as the security concerned, so the detection method should be added to the security issues in NaaS. The authentication and encryption are considered the first solution of the NaaS problem whereas now these are not sufficient as NaaS use is increasing. In this paper, we are going to present the concept of intrusion detection and then survey some of major intrusion detection techniques in NaaS and aim to compare in some important fields.

Keywords: IDS, cloud, naas, detection

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5288 Multichannel Object Detection with Event Camera

Authors: Rafael Iliasov, Alessandro Golkar

Abstract:

Object detection based on event vision has been a dynamically growing field in computer vision for the last 16 years. In this work, we create multiple channels from a single event camera and propose an event fusion method (EFM) to enhance object detection in event-based vision systems. Each channel uses a different accumulation buffer to collect events from the event camera. We implement YOLOv7 for object detection, followed by a fusion algorithm. Our multichannel approach outperforms single-channel-based object detection by 0.7% in mean Average Precision (mAP) for detection overlapping ground truth with IOU = 0.5.

Keywords: event camera, object detection with multimodal inputs, multichannel fusion, computer vision

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5287 Securing Web Servers by the Intrusion Detection System (IDS)

Authors: Yousef Farhaoui

Abstract:

An IDS is a tool which is used to improve the level of security. We present in this paper different architectures of IDS. We will also discuss measures that define the effectiveness of IDS and the very recent works of standardization and homogenization of IDS. At the end, we propose a new model of IDS called BiIDS (IDS Based on the two principles of detection) for securing web servers and applications by the Intrusion Detection System (IDS).

Keywords: intrusion detection, architectures, characteristic, tools, security, web server

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5286 Suggestion for Malware Detection Agent Considering Network Environment

Authors: Ji-Hoon Hong, Dong-Hee Kim, Nam-Uk Kim, Tai-Myoung Chung

Abstract:

Smartphone users are increasing rapidly. Accordingly, many companies are running BYOD (Bring Your Own Device: Policies to bring private-smartphones to the company) policy to increase work efficiency. However, smartphones are always under the threat of malware, thus the company network that is connected smartphone is exposed to serious risks. Most smartphone malware detection techniques are to perform an independent detection (perform the detection of a single target application). In this paper, we analyzed a variety of intrusion detection techniques. Based on the results of analysis propose an agent using the network IDS.

Keywords: android malware detection, software-defined network, interaction environment, android malware detection, software-defined network, interaction environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 433
5285 Improved Skin Detection Using Colour Space and Texture

Authors: Medjram Sofiane, Babahenini Mohamed Chaouki, Mohamed Benali Yamina

Abstract:

Skin detection is an important task for computer vision systems. A good method for skin detection means a good and successful result of the system. The colour is a good descriptor that allows us to detect skin colour in the images, but because of lightings effects and objects that have a similar colour skin, skin detection becomes difficult. In this paper, we proposed a method using the YCbCr colour space for skin detection and lighting effects elimination, then we use the information of texture to eliminate the false regions detected by the YCbCr colour skin model.

Keywords: skin detection, YCbCr, GLCM, texture, human skin

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5284 Real-Time Detection of Space Manipulator Self-Collision

Authors: Zhang Xiaodong, Tang Zixin, Liu Xin

Abstract:

In order to avoid self-collision of space manipulators during operation process, a real-time detection method is proposed in this paper. The manipulator is fitted into a cylinder enveloping surface, and then the detection algorithm of collision between cylinders is analyzed. The collision model of space manipulator self-links can be detected by using this algorithm in real-time detection during the operation process. To ensure security of the operation, a safety threshold is designed. The simulation and experiment results verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for a 7-DOF space manipulator.

Keywords: space manipulator, collision detection, self-collision, the real-time collision detection

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5283 Iris Detection on RGB Image for Controlling Side Mirror

Authors: Norzalina Othman, Nurul Na’imy Wan, Azliza Mohd Rusli, Wan Noor Syahirah Meor Idris

Abstract:

Iris detection is a process where the position of the eyes is extracted from the face images. It is a current method used for many applications such as for security purpose and drowsiness detection. This paper proposes the use of eyes detection in controlling side mirror of motor vehicles. The eyes detection method aims to make driver easy to adjust the side mirrors automatically. The system will determine the midpoint coordinate of eyes detection on RGB (color) image and the input signal from y-coordinate will send it to controller in order to rotate the angle of side mirror on vehicle. The eye position was cropped and the coordinate of midpoint was successfully detected from the circle of iris detection using Viola Jones detection and circular Hough transform methods on RGB image. The coordinate of midpoint from the experiment are tested using controller to determine the angle of rotation on the side mirrors.

Keywords: iris detection, midpoint coordinates, RGB images, side mirror

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5282 Automatic Vehicle Detection Using Circular Synthetic Aperture Radar Image

Authors: Leping Chen, Daoxiang An, Xiaotao Huang

Abstract:

Automatic vehicle detection using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image has been widely researched, as well as using optical remote sensing images. However, most researches treat the detection as an independent problem, failing to make full use of SAR data information. In circular SAR (CSAR), the two long borders of vehicle will shrink if the imaging surface is set higher than the reference one. Based on above variance, an automatic vehicle detection using CSAR image is proposed to enhance detection ability under complex environment, such as vehicles’ closely packing, which confuses the detector. The detection method uses the multiple images generated by different height plane to obtain an energy-concentrated image for detecting and then uses the maximally stable extremal regions method (MSER) to detect vehicles. A result of vehicles’ detection is given to verify the effectiveness and correctness of proposed method.

Keywords: circular SAR, vehicle detection, automatic, imaging

Procedia PDF Downloads 367
5281 Adaptive CFAR Analysis for Non-Gaussian Distribution

Authors: Bouchemha Amel, Chachoui Takieddine, H. Maalem

Abstract:

Automatic detection of targets in a modern communication system RADAR is based primarily on the concept of adaptive CFAR detector. To have an effective detection, we must minimize the influence of disturbances due to the clutter. The detection algorithm adapts the CFAR detection threshold which is proportional to the average power of the clutter, maintaining a constant probability of false alarm. In this article, we analyze the performance of two variants of adaptive algorithms CA-CFAR and OS-CFAR and we compare the thresholds of these detectors in the marine environment (no-Gaussian) with a Weibull distribution.

Keywords: CFAR, threshold, clutter, distribution, Weibull, detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 589
5280 Intrusion Detection Techniques in Mobile Adhoc Networks: A Review

Authors: Rashid Mahmood, Muhammad Junaid Sarwar

Abstract:

Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) use has been well-known from the last few years in the many applications, like mission critical applications. In the (MANETS) prevention method is not adequate as the security concerned, so the detection method should be added to the security issues in (MANETs). The authentication and encryption is considered the first solution of the MANETs problem where as now these are not sufficient as MANET use is increasing. In this paper we are going to present the concept of intrusion detection and then survey some of major intrusion detection techniques in MANET and aim to comparing in some important fields.

Keywords: MANET, IDS, intrusions, signature, detection, prevention

Procedia PDF Downloads 379
5279 Analyzing the Evolution and Maturation of Bitcoin Improvement Proposals

Authors: Rodrigo Costa, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

Abstract:

This study analyzes the evolution of Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs), the self-governing mechanism that enables updates to the Bitcoin protocol. By modeling BIP submission frequencies with a Negative Binomial distribution and detecting change points with the Pelt Rupture model, we identify three distinct intervals of proposal activity, suggesting shifts in development priorities over time. Long-term growth patterns, captured by Gompertz and Weibull models, indicate an S-shaped trend in cumulative BIP counts, pointing toward a maturation phase in Bitcoin’s protocol. Our findings suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a stable stage, with fewer fundamental changes and more incremental enhancements. This trend highlights the need for further research into BIP content and more studies into its dynamics to better understand decentralized protocol governance and maturation.

Keywords: bitcoin improvement proposals, innovation management, change point detection, systems modeling, simulation

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5278 Plant Disease Detection Using Image Processing and Machine Learning

Authors: Sanskar, Abhinav Pal, Aryush Gupta, Sushil Kumar Mishra

Abstract:

One of the critical and tedious assignments in agricultural practices is the detection of diseases on vegetation. Agricultural production is very important in today’s economy because plant diseases are common, and early detection of plant diseases is important in agriculture. Automatic detection of such early diseases is useful because it reduces control efforts in large productive farms. Using digital image processing and machine learning algorithms, this paper presents a method for plant disease detection. Detection of the disease occurs on different leaves of the plant. The proposed system for plant disease detection is simple and computationally efficient, requiring less time than learning-based approaches. The accuracy of various plant and foliar diseases is calculated and presented in this paper.

Keywords: plant diseases, machine learning, image processing, deep learning

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5277 A Comparative Study of Virus Detection Techniques

Authors: Sulaiman Al amro, Ali Alkhalifah

Abstract:

The growing number of computer viruses and the detection of zero day malware have been the concern for security researchers for a large period of time. Existing antivirus products (AVs) rely on detecting virus signatures which do not provide a full solution to the problems associated with these viruses. The use of logic formulae to model the behaviour of viruses is one of the most encouraging recent developments in virus research, which provides alternatives to classic virus detection methods. In this paper, we proposed a comparative study about different virus detection techniques. This paper provides the advantages and drawbacks of different detection techniques. Different techniques will be used in this paper to provide a discussion about what technique is more effective to detect computer viruses.

Keywords: computer viruses, virus detection, signature-based, behaviour-based, heuristic-based

Procedia PDF Downloads 484
5276 The Effect of Pixelation on Face Detection: Evidence from Eye Movements

Authors: Kaewmart Pongakkasira

Abstract:

This study investigated how different levels of pixelation affect face detection in natural scenes. Eye movements and reaction times, while observers searched for faces in natural scenes rendered in different ranges of pixels, were recorded. Detection performance for coarse visual detail at lower pixel size (3 x 3) was better than with very blurred detail carried by higher pixel size (9 x 9). The result is consistent with the notion that face detection relies on gross detail information of face-shape template, containing crude shape structure and features. In contrast, detection was impaired when face shape and features are obscured. However, it was considered that the degradation of scenic information might also contribute to the effect. In the next experiment, a more direct measurement of the effect of pixelation on face detection, only the embedded face photographs, but not the scene background, will be filtered.

Keywords: eye movements, face detection, face-shape information, pixelation

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5275 Performance of Nakagami Fading Channel over Energy Detection Based Spectrum Sensing

Authors: M. Ranjeeth, S. Anuradha

Abstract:

Spectrum sensing is the main feature of cognitive radio technology. Spectrum sensing gives an idea of detecting the presence of the primary users in a licensed spectrum. In this paper we compare the theoretical results of detection probability of different fading environments like Rayleigh, Rician, Nakagami-m fading channels with the simulation results using energy detection based spectrum sensing. The numerical results are plotted as P_f Vs P_d for different SNR values, fading parameters. It is observed that Nakagami fading channel performance is better than other fading channels by using energy detection in spectrum sensing. A MATLAB simulation test bench has been implemented to know the performance of energy detection in different fading channel environment.

Keywords: spectrum sensing, energy detection, fading channels, probability of detection, probability of false alarm

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5274 Detection of Trends and Break Points in Climatic Indices: The Case of Umbria Region in Italy

Authors: A. Flammini, R. Morbidelli, C. Saltalippi

Abstract:

The increase of air surface temperature at global scale is a fact, with values around 0.85 ºC since the late nineteen century, as well as a significant change in main features of rainfall regime. Nevertheless, the detected climatic changes are not equally distributed all over the world, but exhibit specific characteristics in different regions. Therefore, studying the evolution of climatic indices in different geographical areas with a prefixed standard approach becomes very useful in order to analyze the existence of climatic trend and compare results. In this work, a methodology to investigate the climatic change and its effects on a wide set of climatic indices is proposed and applied at regional scale in the case study of a Mediterranean area, Umbria region in Italy. From data of the available temperature stations, nine temperature indices have been obtained and the existence of trends has been checked by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, while the non-parametric Pettitt test and the parametric Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) have been applied to detect the presence of break points. In addition, aimed to characterize the rainfall regime, data from 11 rainfall stations have been used and a trend analysis has been performed on cumulative annual rainfall depth, daily rainfall, rainy days, and dry periods length. The results show a general increase in any temperature indices, even if with a trend pattern dependent of indices and stations, and a general decrease of cumulative annual rainfall and average daily rainfall, with a time rainfall distribution over the year different from the past.

Keywords: climatic change, temperature, rainfall regime, trend analysis

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5273 Novel GPU Approach in Predicting the Directional Trend of the S&P500

Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

Abstract:

Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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5272 Future Trends of Mechatronics Engineering in Pakistan

Authors: Aqeela Mir, Akhtar Nawaz Malik, Javaid Iqbal

Abstract:

The paper presents a survey based approach in order to observe the level of awareness regarding Mechatronics in society of Pakistan and the factors affecting the future development trend of Mechatronics in Pakistan. With the help of these surveys a new direction for making a Mathematical model for the future development trend of Mechatronics in Pakistan is also suggested.

Keywords: mechatronics society survey, future development trend of mechatronics in pakistan, probability estimation, mathematical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 522