Search results for: validation study
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13028

Search results for: validation study

12908 Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Water Turbidity

Authors: Chia-Ling Chang, Chung-Sheng Liao

Abstract:

The present study focuses on the discussion over the parameter of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Sensitivity analysis is applied to assess the effect of the parameters of ANN on the prediction of turbidity of raw water in the water treatment plant. The result shows that transfer function of hidden layer is a critical parameter of ANN. When the transfer function changes, the reliability of prediction of water turbidity is greatly different. Moreover, the estimated water turbidity is less sensitive to training times and learning velocity than the number of neurons in the hidden layer. Therefore, it is important to select an appropriate transfer function and suitable number of neurons in the hidden layer in the process of parameter training and validation.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), sensitivity analysis, turbidity.

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12907 The Cost Structure of Intermodal Transportation: The Chilean Case

Authors: Mabel A. Leva

Abstract:

This study defines a methodology to compute unitary costs for freight transportation modes. The main objective was to gather relevant costs data to support the formulation and evaluation of railway, road, pipelines and port projects. This article will concentrate on the following steps: Compilation and analysis of relevant modal cost studies, Methodological adjustments to make cost figures comparable between studies, Definition of typology and scope of transportation modes, Analysis and validation of cost values for relevant freight transportation modes in Chile. In order to define the comparison methodology for the costs between the different transportation modes, it was necessary to consider that the relevant cost depends on who performs the comparison. Thus, for the transportation user (e.g. exporter) the pertinent costs are the mode tariffs, whereas from the operators perspective (e.g. rail manager), the pertinent costs are the operating costs of each mode.

Keywords: Intermodal costs, Logistics, Transportation costs.

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12906 Text Mining Technique for Data Mining Application

Authors: M. Govindarajan

Abstract:

Text Mining is around applying knowledge discovery techniques to unstructured text is termed knowledge discovery in text (KDT), or Text data mining or Text Mining. In decision tree approach is most useful in classification problem. With this technique, tree is constructed to model the classification process. There are two basic steps in the technique: building the tree and applying the tree to the database. This paper describes a proposed C5.0 classifier that performs rulesets, cross validation and boosting for original C5.0 in order to reduce the optimization of error ratio. The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated by means of medial data set like hypothyroid. It is shown that, the performance of a classifier on the training cases from which it was constructed gives a poor estimate by sampling or using a separate test file, either way, the classifier is evaluated on cases that were not used to build and evaluate the classifier are both are large. If the cases in hypothyroid.data and hypothyroid.test were to be shuffled and divided into a new 2772 case training set and a 1000 case test set, C5.0 might construct a different classifier with a lower or higher error rate on the test cases. An important feature of see5 is its ability to classifiers called rulesets. The ruleset has an error rate 0.5 % on the test cases. The standard errors of the means provide an estimate of the variability of results. One way to get a more reliable estimate of predictive is by f-fold –cross- validation. The error rate of a classifier produced from all the cases is estimated as the ratio of the total number of errors on the hold-out cases to the total number of cases. The Boost option with x trials instructs See5 to construct up to x classifiers in this manner. Trials over numerous datasets, large and small, show that on average 10-classifier boosting reduces the error rate for test cases by about 25%.

Keywords: C5.0, Error Ratio, text mining, training data, test data.

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12905 Validation of the WAsP Model for a Terrain Surrounded by Mountainous Region

Authors: Mohammadamin Zanganeh, Vahid Khalajzadeh

Abstract:

The problems associated with wind predictions of WAsP model in complex terrain are already the target of several studies in the last decade. In this paper, the influence of surrounding orography on accuracy of wind data analysis of a train is investigated. For the case study, a site with complex surrounding orography is considered. This site is located in Manjil, one of the windiest cities of Iran. For having precise evaluation of wind regime in the site, one-year wind data measurements from two metrological masts are used. To validate the obtained results from WAsP, the cross prediction between each mast is performed. The analysis reveals that WAsP model can estimate the wind speed behavior accurately. In addition, results show that this software can be used for predicting the wind regime in flat sites with complex surrounding orography.

Keywords: Complex terrain, Meteorological mast, WAsPmodel, Wind prediction

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12904 Comparative Study of Filter Characteristics as Statistical Vocal Correlates of Clinical Psychiatric State in Human

Authors: Thaweesak Yingthawornsuk, Chusak Thanawattano

Abstract:

Acoustical properties of speech have been shown to be related to mental states of speaker with symptoms: depression and remission. This paper describes way to address the issue of distinguishing depressed patients from remitted subjects based on measureable acoustics change of their spoken sound. The vocal-tract related frequency characteristics of speech samples from female remitted and depressed patients were analyzed via speech processing techniques and consequently, evaluated statistically by cross-validation with Support Vector Machine. Our results comparatively show the classifier's performance with effectively correct separation of 93% determined from testing with the subjectbased feature model and 88% from the frame-based model based on the same speech samples collected from hospital visiting interview sessions between patients and psychiatrists.

Keywords: Depression, SVM, Vocal Extract, Vocal Tract

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12903 Flow Analysis of Viscous Nanofluid Due to Rotating Rigid Disk with Navier’s Slip: A Numerical Study

Authors: Khalil Ur Rehman, M. Y. Malik, Usman Ali

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem proposed by Von Karman is treated in the attendance of additional flow field effects when the liquid is spaced above the rotating rigid disk. To be more specific, a purely viscous fluid flow yield by rotating rigid disk with Navier’s condition is considered in both magnetohydrodynamic and hydrodynamic frames. The rotating flow regime is manifested with heat source/sink and chemically reactive species. Moreover, the features of thermophoresis and Brownian motion are reported by considering nanofluid model. The flow field formulation is obtained mathematically in terms of high order differential equations. The reduced system of equations is solved numerically through self-coded computational algorithm. The pertinent outcomes are discussed systematically and provided through graphical and tabular practices. A simultaneous way of study makes this attempt attractive in this sense that the article contains dual framework and validation of results with existing work confirms the execution of self-coded algorithm for fluid flow regime over a rotating rigid disk.

Keywords: Nanoparticles, Newtonian fluid model, chemical reaction, heat source/sink.

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12902 Factors Militating the Organization of Intramural Sport Programs in Secondary Schools: A Case Study of the Ekiti West Local Government Area of Ekiti State, Nigeria

Authors: Adewole Taiwo Adelabu

Abstract:

The study investigated the factors militating the organization of intramural sports programs in secondary schools in Ekiti State, Nigeria. The purpose of the study was to identify the factors affecting the organization of sports in secondary schools and also to proffer possible solutions to these factors. The study employed the inferential statistics of chi-square (x2). Five research hypotheses were formulated. The population for the study was all the students in the government-owned secondary schools in Ekiti West Local Government of Ekiti State Nigeria. The sample for the study was 60 students in three schools within the local government selected through simple random sampling techniques. The instrument used for the study was a self-developed questionnaire by the researcher for data collection. The instrument was presented to experts and academicians in the field of Human Kinetics and Health Education for construct and content validation. A reliability test was conducted which involves 10 students who are not part of the study. The test-retest coefficient of 0.74 was obtained which attested to the fact that the instrument was reliable enough for the study. The validated questionnaire was administered to the students in their various schools by the researcher with the help of two research assistants; the questionnaires were filled and returned to the researcher immediately. The data collected were analyzed using the descriptive statistics of frequency count, percentage and mean to analyze demographic data in section A of the questionnaire, while inferential statistics of chi-square was used to test the hypotheses at 0.05 alpha level. The results of the study revealed that personnel, fund, schedule (time) were significant factors that affect the organization of intramural sport programs among students in secondary schools in Ekiti West Local Government Area of the State. The study also revealed that organization of intramural sports programs among students of secondary schools will improve and motivate students’ participation in sports beyond the local level. However, facilities and equipment is not a significant factor affecting the organization of intramural sports among secondary school students in Ekiti West Local Government Area.

Keywords: Challenge, militating, intramural sport, programs.

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12901 Validation of Visibility Data from Road Weather Information Systems by Comparing Three Data Resources: Case Study in Ohio

Authors: Fan Ye

Abstract:

Adverse weather conditions, particularly those with low visibility, are critical to the driving tasks. However, the direct relationship between visibility distances and traffic flow/roadway safety is uncertain due to the limitation of visibility data availability. The recent growth of deployment of Road Weather Information Systems (RWIS) makes segment-specific visibility information available which can be integrated with other Intelligent Transportation System, such as automated warning system and variable speed limit, to improve mobility and safety. Before applying the RWIS visibility measurements in traffic study and operations, it is critical to validate the data. Therefore, an attempt was made in the paper to examine the validity and viability of RWIS visibility data by comparing visibility measurements among RWIS, airport weather stations, and weather information recorded by police in crash reports, based on Ohio data. The results indicated that RWIS visibility measurements were significantly different from airport visibility data in Ohio, but no conclusion regarding the reliability of RWIS visibility could be drawn in the consideration of no verified ground truth in the comparisons. It was suggested that more objective methods are needed to validate the RWIS visibility measurements, such as continuous in-field measurements associated with various weather events using calibrated visibility sensors.

Keywords: Low visibility, RWIS, traffic safety, visibility.

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12900 Effect of Highly Pressurized Dispersion Arc Nozzle on Breakup of Oil Leakage in Offshore

Authors: N. M. M. Ammar, S. M. Mustaqim, N. M. Nadzir

Abstract:

The most important problem occurs on oil spills in sea water is to reduce the oil spills size. This study deals with the development of high pressurized nozzle using dispersion method for oil leakage in offshore. 3D numerical simulation results were obtained using ANSYS Fluent 13.0 code and correlate with the experimental data for validation. This paper studies the contribution of the process on flow speed and pressure of the flow from two different geometrical designs of nozzles and to generate a spray pattern suitable for dispersant application. Factor of size distribution of droplets generated by the nozzle is calculated using pressures ranging from 2 to 6 bars. Results obtain from both analyses shows a significant spray pattern and flow distribution as well as distance. Results also show a significant contribution on the effect of oil leakage in terms of the diameter of the oil spills break up.

Keywords: Arc Nozzle, CFD simulation, Droplets, Oil Spills.

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12899 Management of Air Pollutants from Point Sources

Authors: N. Lokeshwari, G. Srinikethan, V. S. Hegde

Abstract:

Monitoring is essential to assessing the effectiveness of air pollution control actions. The goal of the air quality information system is through monitoring, to keep authorities, major polluters and the public informed on the short and long-term changes in air quality, thereby helping to raise awareness. Mathematical models are the best tools available for the prediction of the air quality management. The main objective of the work was to apply a Model that predicts the concentration levels of different pollutants at any instant of time. In this study, distribution of air pollutants concentration such as nitrogen dioxides (NO2), sulphur dioxides (SO2) and total suspended particulates (TSP) of industries are determined by using Gaussian model. Besides that, the effect of wind speed and its direction on the pollutant concentration within the affected area were evaluated. In order to determine the efficiency and percentage of error in the modeling, validation process of data was done. Sampling of air quality was conducted in getting existing air quality around a factory and the concentrations of pollutants in a plume were inversely proportional to wind velocity. The resultant ground level concentrations were then compared to the quality standards to determine if there could be a negative impact on health. This study concludes that concentration of pollutants can be significantly predicted using Gaussian Model. The data base management is developed for the air data of Hubli-Dharwad region.

Keywords: DBMS, NO2, SO2, Wind rose plots.

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12898 Optimization of Element Type for FE Model and Verification of Analyses with Physical Tests

Authors: M. Tufekci, C. Guven

Abstract:

In Automotive Industry, sliding door systems that are also used as body closures are safety members. Extreme product tests are realized to prevent failures in design process, but these tests realized experimentally result in high costs. Finite element analysis is an effective tool used for design process. These analyses are used before production of prototype for validation of design according to customer requirement. In result of this, substantial amount of time and cost is saved. Finite element model is created for geometries that are designed in 3D CAD programs. Different element types as bar, shell and solid, can be used for creating mesh model. Cheaper model can be created by selection of element type, but combination of element type that was used in model, number and geometry of element and degrees of freedom affects the analysis result. Sliding door system is a good example which used these methods for this study. Structural analysis was realized for sliding door mechanism by using FE models. As well, physical tests that have same boundary conditions with FE models were realized. Comparison study for these element types, were done regarding test and analyses results then optimum combination was achieved.

Keywords: Finite Element Analysis, Sliding Door Mechanism, Element Type, Structural Analysis.

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12897 Pilot Study on the Impact of VLE on Mathematical Concepts Acquisition within Secondary Education in England

Authors: Aaron A. R. Nwabude

Abstract:

The research investigates the “impact of VLE on mathematical concepts acquisition of the special education needs (SENs) students at KS4 secondary education sector" in England. The overall aim of the study is to establish possible areas of difficulties to approach for above or below knowledge standard requirements for KS4 students in the acquisition and validation of basic mathematical concepts. A teaching period, in which virtual learning environment (Fronter) was used to emphasise different mathematical perception and symbolic representation was carried out and task based survey conducted to 20 special education needs students [14 actually took part]. The result shows that students were able to process information and consider images, objects and numbers within the VLE at early stages of acquisition process. They were also able to carry out perceptual tasks but with limiting process of different quotient, thus they need teacher-s guidance to connect them to symbolic representations and sometimes coach them through. The pilot study further indicates that VLE curriculum approaches for students were minutely aligned with mathematics teaching which does not emphasise the integration of VLE into the existing curriculum and current teaching practice. There was also poor alignment of vision regarding the use of VLE in realisation of the objectives of teaching mathematics by the management. On the part of teacher training, not much was done to develop teacher-s skills in the technical and pedagogical aspects of VLE that is in-use at the school. The classroom observation confirmed teaching practice will find a reliance on VLE as an enhancer of mathematical skills, providing interaction and personalisation of learning to SEN students.

Keywords: VLE, Mathematical Concepts Acquisition, PilotStudy, SENs, KS4, Education, Teacher

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12896 Identifying and Analyzing the Role of Brand Loyalty towards Incumbent Smartphones in New Branded Smartphone Adoption: Approach by Dual Process Theory

Authors: Lee Woong-Kyu

Abstract:

Fierce competition in smartphone market may encourage users to switch brands when buying a new smartphone. However, many smartphone users continue to use the same brand although other branded smartphones are perceived to be more attractive. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the effects of brand loyalty toward incumbent smartphone on new smartphone adoption. For this purpose, a research model including two hypotheses, the positive effect on rational judgments and the negative effect on rational judgments, are proposed based on the dual process theory. For the validation of the research model, the data was collected by surveying Korean university students and tested by the group comparison between high and low brand loyalty. The results show that the two hypotheses were statistically supported.

Keywords: Brand loyalty, dual process theory, incumbent smartphone, smartphone adoption.

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12895 A New Heuristic Statistical Methodology for Optimizing Queuing Networks Using Discreet Event Simulation

Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi

Abstract:

Most of the real queuing systems include special properties and constraints, which can not be analyzed directly by using the results of solved classical queuing models. Lack of Markov chains features, unexponential patterns and service constraints, are the mentioned conditions. This paper represents an applied general algorithm for analysis and optimizing the queuing systems. The algorithm stages are described through a real case study. It is consisted of an almost completed non-Markov system with limited number of customers and capacities as well as lots of common exception of real queuing networks. Simulation is used for optimizing this system. So introduced stages over the following article include primary modeling, determining queuing system kinds, index defining, statistical analysis and goodness of fit test, validation of model and optimizing methods of system with simulation.

Keywords: Estimation, queuing system, simulation model, probability distribution, non-Markov chain.

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12894 Students’ Perception of Vector Representation in the Context of Electric Force and the Role of Simulation in Developing an Understanding

Authors: S. Shubha, B. N. Meera

Abstract:

Physics Education Research (PER) results have shown that students do not achieve the expected level of competency in understanding the concepts of different domains of Physics learning when taught by the traditional teaching methods, the concepts of Electricity and Magnetism (E&M) being one among them. Simulation being one of the valuable instructional tools renders an opportunity to visualize varied experiences with such concepts. Considering the electric force concept which requires extensive use of vector representations, we report here the outcome of the research results pertaining to the student understanding of this concept and the role of simulation in using vector representation. The simulation platform provides a positive impact on the use of vector representation. The first stage of this study involves eliciting and analyzing student responses to questions that probe their understanding of the concept of electrostatic force and this is followed by four stages of student interviews as they use the interactive simulations of electric force in one dimension. Student responses to the questions are recorded in real time using electronic pad. A validation test interview is conducted to evaluate students' understanding of the electric force concept after using interactive simulation. Results indicate lack of procedural knowledge of the vector representation. The study emphasizes the need for the choice of appropriate simulation and mode of induction for learning.

Keywords: Electric Force, Interactive, Representation, Simulation.

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12893 Towards Benchmarking English Residential Gas Consumption

Authors: J.Morris, D.Allinson, J.Harrison, K.J. Lomas

Abstract:

The UK Government has emphasized the role of Local Authorities as a key player in its flagship residential energy efficiency strategies, by identifying and targeting areas for energy efficiency improvements. Residential energy consumption in England is characterized by significant geographical variation in energy demand, which makes centralized targeting of areas for energy efficiency intervention difficult. This paper draws on research which aims to understand how demographic, social, economic, urban form and climatic factors influence the geographical variations in English residential gas consumption. The paper reports the findings of a multiple regression model that shows how 64% of the geographical variation in residential gas consumption is accounted for by variations in these factors. Results from this study, after further refinement and validation, can be used by Local Authorities to identify areas within their boundaries that have higher than expected gas consumption, these may be prime targets for energy efficiency initiatives.

Keywords: UK Housing, Heating Energy, Socio-Economics, Statistical Modelling

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12892 Application of Association Rule Mining in Supplier Selection Criteria

Authors: A. Haery, N. Salmasi, M. Modarres Yazdi, H. Iranmanesh

Abstract:

In this paper the application of rule mining in order to review the effective factors on supplier selection is reviewed in the following three sections 1) criteria selecting and information gathering 2) performing association rule mining 3) validation and constituting rule base. Afterwards a few of applications of rule base is explained. Then, a numerical example is presented and analyzed by Clementine software. Some of extracted rules as well as the results are presented at the end.

Keywords: Association rule mining, data mining, supplierselection criteria.

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12891 Lifelong Education for Teachers: A Tool for Achieving Effective Teaching and Learning in Secondary Schools in Benue State, Nigeria

Authors: P. I. Adzongo, O. A. Aloga

Abstract:

The purpose of the study was to examine lifelong education for teachers as a tool for achieving effective teaching and learning. Lifelong education enhances social inclusion, personal development, citizenship, employability, teaching and learning, community and the nation. It is imperative that the teacher needs to update his knowledge regularly to be able to perform optimally, since he has a major position in the inculcation of desirable elements in students, and the challenges of lifelong education were also discussed. Descriptive survey design was adopted for the study. A simple random sampling technique was used to select 80 teachers as sample from a population of 105 senior secondary school teachers in Makurdi Local Government Area of Benue State. A 20-item self designed questionnaire subjected to expert validation and reliability was used to collect data. The reliability Alpha coefficient of 0.87 was established using Cronbach’s Alpha technique, mean scores and standard deviation were used to answer the 2 research questions while chi-square was used to analyse data for the 2 null hypotheses, which states that lifelong education for teachers is not a significant tool for achieving effective teaching and lifelong education for teachers does not significantly impact on effective learning. The findings of the study revealed that, lifelong education for teachers can be used as a tool for achieving effective teaching and learning, and the study recommended among others that government, organizations and individuals should in collaboration put lifelong education programmes for teachers on the priority list. The paper concluded that the strategic position of lifelong education for teachers towards enhanced teaching, learning and the production of quality manpower in the society makes it imperative for all hands to be on “deck” to support the programme financially and otherwise.

Keywords: Lifelong Education, Tool, Effective Teaching and Learning.

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12890 Toward a New Simple Analytical Formulation of Navier-Stokes Equations

Authors: Gunawan Nugroho, Ahmed M. S. Ali, Zainal A. Abdul Karim

Abstract:

Incompressible Navier-Stokes equations are reviewed in this work. Three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations are solved analytically. The Mathematical derivation shows that the solutions for the zero and constant pressure gradients are similar. Descriptions of the proposed formulation and validation against two laminar experiments and three different turbulent flow cases are reported in this paper. Even though, the analytical solution is derived for nonreacting flows, it could reproduce trends for cases including combustion.

Keywords: Navier-Stokes Equations, potential function, turbulent flows.

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12889 Optimization of Conditions for Xanthan Gum Production from Waste Date in Submerged Fermantation

Authors: S. Moshaf, Z. Hamidi-Esfahani, M. H. Azizi

Abstract:

Xanthan gum is one of the major commercial biopolymers. Due to its excellent rheological properties xanthan gum is used in many applications, mainly in food industry. Commercial production of xanthan gum uses glucose as the carbon substrate; consequently the price of xanthan production is high. One of the ways to decrease xanthan price, is using cheaper substrate like agricultural wastes. Iran is one of the biggest date producer countries. However approximately 50% of date production is wasted annually. The goal of this study is to produce xanthan gum from waste date using Xanthomonas campestris PTCC1473 by submerged fermentation. In this study the effect of three variables including phosphor and nitrogen amount and agitation rate in three levels using response surface methodology (RSM) has been studied. Results achieved from statistical analysis Design Expert 7.0.0 software showed that xanthan increased with increasing level of phosphor. Low level of nitrogen leaded to higher xanthan production. Xanthan amount, increasing agitation had positive influence. The statistical model identified the optimum conditions nitrogen amount=3.15g/l, phosphor amount=5.03 g/l and agitation=394.8 rpm for xanthan. To model validation, experiments in optimum conditions for xanthan gum were carried out. The mean of result for xanthan was 6.72±0.26. The result was closed to the predicted value by using RSM.

Keywords: Optimization, RSM, Waste date, Xanthan gum, Xanthomonas Campestris

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12888 Finite Element Modeling of Heat and Moisture Transfer in Porous Material

Authors: V. D. Thi, M. Li, M. Khelifa, M. El Ganaoui, Y. Rogaume

Abstract:

This paper presents a two-dimensional model to study the heat and moisture transfer through porous building materials. Dynamic and static coupled models of heat and moisture transfer in porous material under low temperature are presented and the coupled models together with variable initial and boundary conditions have been considered in an analytical way and using the finite element method. The resulting coupled model is converted to two nonlinear partial differential equations, which is then numerically solved by an implicit iterative scheme. The numerical results of temperature and moisture potential changes are compared with the experimental measurements available in the literature. Predicted results demonstrate validation of the theoretical model and effectiveness of the developed numerical algorithms. It is expected to provide useful information for the porous building material design based on heat and moisture transfer model.

Keywords: Finite element method, heat transfer, moisture transfer, porous materials, wood.

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12887 Concepts Extraction from Discharge Notes using Association Rule Mining

Authors: Basak Oguz Yolcular

Abstract:

A large amount of valuable information is available in plain text clinical reports. New techniques and technologies are applied to extract information from these reports. In this study, we developed a domain based software system to transform 600 Otorhinolaryngology discharge notes to a structured form for extracting clinical data from the discharge notes. In order to decrease the system process time discharge notes were transformed into a data table after preprocessing. Several word lists were constituted to identify common section in the discharge notes, including patient history, age, problems, and diagnosis etc. N-gram method was used for discovering terms co-Occurrences within each section. Using this method a dataset of concept candidates has been generated for the validation step, and then Predictive Apriori algorithm for Association Rule Mining (ARM) was applied to validate candidate concepts.

Keywords: association rule mining, otorhinolaryngology, predictive apriori, text mining

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12886 Simulation of the Asphaltene Deposition Rate in a Wellbore Blockage via Computational Fluid Dynamics

Authors: Xiaodong Gao, Pingchuan Dong, Qichao Gao

Abstract:

This work attempts to predict the deposition rate of asphaltene particles in blockage tube through CFD simulation. The Euler-Lagrange equation has been applied during the flow of crude oil and asphaltene particles. The net gravitational force, virtual mass, pressure gradient, Saffman lift, and drag forces are incorporated in the simulations process. Validation of CFD simulation results is compared to the benchmark experiments from the previous literature. Furthermore, the effects of blockage location, blockage length, and blockage thickness on deposition rate are also analyzed. The simulation results indicate that the maximum deposition rate of asphaltene occurs in the blocked tube section, and the greater the deposition thickness, the greater the deposition rate. Moreover, the deposition amount and maximum deposition rate along the length of the tube have the same trend. Results of this study are in the ability to better understand the deposition of asphaltene particles in production and help achieve to deal with the asphaltene challenges.

Keywords: Asphaltene deposition rate, blockage length, blockage thickness, blockage diameter, transient condition.

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12885 Precipitation Intensity: Duration Based Threshold Analysis for Initiation of Landslides in Upper Alaknanda Valley

Authors: Soumiya Bhattacharjee, P. K. Champati Ray, Shovan L. Chattoraj, Mrinmoy Dhara

Abstract:

The entire Himalayan range is globally renowned for rainfall-induced landslides. The prime focus of the study is to determine rainfall based threshold for initiation of landslides that can be used as an important component of an early warning system for alerting stake holders. This research deals with temporal dimension of slope failures due to extreme rainfall events along the National Highway-58 from Karanprayag to Badrinath in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Post processed 3-hourly rainfall intensity data and its corresponding duration from daily rainfall data available from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used as the prime source of rainfall data. Landslide event records from Border Road Organization (BRO) and some ancillary landslide inventory data for 2013 and 2014 have been used to determine Intensity Duration (ID) based rainfall threshold. The derived governing threshold equation, I= 4.738D-0.025, has been considered for prediction of landslides of the study region. This equation was validated with an accuracy of 70% landslides during August and September 2014. The derived equation was considered for further prediction of landslides of the study region. From the obtained results and validation, it can be inferred that this equation can be used for initiation of landslides in the study area to work as a part of an early warning system. Results can significantly improve with ground based rainfall estimates and better database on landslide records. Thus, the study has demonstrated a very low cost method to get first-hand information on possibility of impending landslide in any region, thereby providing alert and better preparedness for landslide disaster mitigation.

Keywords: Landslide, intensity-duration, rainfall threshold, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, slope, inventory, early warning system.

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12884 Spatial Time Series Models for Rice and Cassava Yields Based On Bayesian Linear Mixed Models

Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, Linear mixed model, Multivariate conditional autoregressive model, Spatial time series.

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12883 Virulent-GO: Prediction of Virulent Proteins in Bacterial Pathogens Utilizing Gene Ontology Terms

Authors: Chia-Ta Tsai, Wen-Lin Huang, Shinn-Jang Ho, Li-Sun Shu, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

Prediction of bacterial virulent protein sequences can give assistance to identification and characterization of novel virulence-associated factors and discover drug/vaccine targets against proteins indispensable to pathogenicity. Gene Ontology (GO) annotation which describes functions of genes and gene products as a controlled vocabulary of terms has been shown effectively for a variety of tasks such as gene expression study, GO annotation prediction, protein subcellular localization, etc. In this study, we propose a sequence-based method Virulent-GO by mining informative GO terms as features for predicting bacterial virulent proteins. Each protein in the datasets used by the existing method VirulentPred is annotated by using BLAST to obtain its homologies with known accession numbers for retrieving GO terms. After investigating various popular classifiers using the same five-fold cross-validation scheme, Virulent-GO using the single kind of GO term features with an accuracy of 82.5% is slightly better than VirulentPred with 81.8% using five kinds of sequence-based features. For the evaluation of independent test, Virulent-GO also yields better results (82.0%) than VirulentPred (80.7%). When evaluating single kind of feature with SVM, the GO term feature performs much well, compared with each of the five kinds of features.

Keywords: Bacterial virulence factors, GO terms, prediction, protein sequence.

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12882 Fuzzy Types Clustering for Microarray Data

Authors: Seo Young Kim, Tai Myong Choi

Abstract:

The main goal of microarray experiments is to quantify the expression of every object on a slide as precisely as possible, with a further goal of clustering the objects. Recently, many studies have discussed clustering issues involving similar patterns of gene expression. This paper presents an application of fuzzy-type methods for clustering DNA microarray data that can be applied to typical comparisons. Clustering and analyses were performed on microarray and simulated data. The results show that fuzzy-possibility c-means clustering substantially improves the findings obtained by others.

Keywords: Clustering, microarray data, Fuzzy-type clustering, Validation

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12881 Optimal Allocation of FACTS Devices for ATC Enhancement Using Bees Algorithm

Authors: R.Mohamad Idris, A.Khairuddin, M.W.Mustafa

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel method using Bees Algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal allocation of FACTS devices for maximizing the Available Transfer Capability (ATC) of power transactions between source and sink areas in the deregulated power system. The algorithm simultaneously searches the FACTS location, FACTS parameters and FACTS types. Two types of FACTS are simulated in this study namely Thyristor Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC) and Static Var Compensator (SVC). A Repeated Power Flow with FACTS devices including ATC is used to evaluate the feasible ATC value within real and reactive power generation limits, line thermal limits, voltage limits and FACTS operation limits. An IEEE30 bus system is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm as an optimization tool to enhance ATC. A Genetic Algorithm technique is used for validation purposes. The results clearly indicate that the introduction of FACTS devices in a right combination of location and parameters could enhance ATC and Bees Algorithm can be efficiently used for this kind of nonlinear integer optimization.

Keywords: ATC, Bees Algorithm, TCSC, SVC

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12880 Large Eddy Simulation of Compartment Fire with Gas Combustible

Authors: Mliki Bouchmel, Abbassi Mohamed Ammar, Kamel Geudri, Chrigui Mouldi, Omri Ahmed

Abstract:

The objective of this work is to use the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) to investigate the behavior of a kerosene small-scale fire. FDS is a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool developed specifically for fire applications. Throughout its development, FDS is used for the resolution of practical problems in fire protection engineering. At the same time FDS is used to study fundamental fire dynamics and combustion. Predictions are based on Large Eddy Simulation (LES) with a Smagorinsky turbulence model. LES directly computes the large-scale eddies and the sub-grid scale dissipative processes are modeled. This technique is the default turbulence model which was used in this study. The validation of the numerical prediction is done using a direct comparison of combustion output variables to experimental measurements. Effect of the mesh size on the temperature evolutions is investigated and optimum grid size is suggested. Effect of width openings is investigated. Temperature distribution and species flow are presented for different operating conditions. The effect of the composition of the used fuel on atmospheric pollution is also a focus point within this work. Good predictions are obtained where the size of the computational cells within the fire compartment is less than 1/10th of the characteristic fire diameter.

Keywords: Large eddy simulation, Radiation, Turbulence, combustion, pollution.

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12879 Parametric Study of Vertical Diffusion Still for Water Desalination

Authors: A. Seleem, M. Mortada, M. El Morsi, M. Younan

Abstract:

Diffusion stills have been effective in water desalination. The present work represents a model of the distillation process by using vertical single-effect diffusion stills. A semianalytical model has been developed to model the process. A software computer code using Engineering Equation Solver EES software has been developed to solve the equations of the developed model. An experimental setup has been constructed, and used for the validation of the model. The model is also validated against former literature results. The results obtained from the present experimental test rig, and the data from the literature, have been compared with the results of the code to find its best range of validity. In addition, a parametric analysis of the system has been developed using the model to determine the effect of operating conditions on the system's performance. The dominant parameters that affect the productivity of the still are the hot plate temperature that ranges from (55- 90°C) and feed flow rate in range of (0.00694-0.0211 kg/m2-s).

Keywords: Analytical Model, Solar Distillation, Sustainable Water Systems, Vertical Diffusion Still.

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