Search results for: time series forecast

Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

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Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: Climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation.

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Authors: Md Khairullah, Hai-Xiang Lin, Remus G. Hanea, Arnold W. Heemink

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In this paper we describe the design and implementation of a parallel algorithm for data assimilation with ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for oil reservoir history matching problem. The use of large number of observations from time-lapse seismic leads to a large turnaround time for the analysis step, in addition to the time consuming simulations of the realizations. For efficient parallelization it is important to consider parallel computation at the analysis step. Our experiments show that parallelization of the analysis step in addition to the forecast step has good scalability, exploiting the same set of resources with some additional efforts.

Keywords: EnKF, Data assimilation, Parallel computing, Parallel efficiency.

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Authors: Frank Emmert Streib, Matthias Dehmer, Gökhan H. Bakır, Max Mühlhauser

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In this paper we investigate the influence of external noise on the inference of network structures. The purpose of our simulations is to gain insights in the experimental design of microarray experiments to infer, e.g., transcription regulatory networks from microarray experiments. Here external noise means, that the dynamics of the system under investigation, e.g., temporal changes of mRNA concentration, is affected by measurement errors. Additionally to external noise another problem occurs in the context of microarray experiments. Practically, it is not possible to monitor the mRNA concentration over an arbitrary long time period as demanded by the statistical methods used to learn the underlying network structure. For this reason, we use only short time series to make our simulations more biologically plausible.

Keywords: Dynamic Bayesian networks, structure learning, gene networks, Markov chain Monte Carlo, microarray data.

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Authors: A. S. Adesuyi, Z. Munch

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This study investigates the use of a time-series of MODIS NDVI data to identify agricultural land cover change on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend. Following an ISODATA classification of the MODIS imagery to selectively mask areas not agriculture or semi-natural, NDVI signatures were created to identify areas cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data for 2010. The NDVI signature curve and training samples were used to create a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9 using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 including ISODATA classification and Model 2 not. These two models were then used to classify all data for the study area for 2010, producing land cover maps with classification accuracies of 77% and 80% for Model 1 and 2 respectively. Model 2 was subsequently used to create land cover classification and change detection maps for all other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices. Over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. Forty one percent of the catchment comprised of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyards largely remained constant with only one percent conversion to vineyard from other land cover classes.

Keywords: Change detection, Land cover, NDVI, time-series.

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Authors: N. Sopipan

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In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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Authors: A. Gandomkar, R. Dehghani

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Drought is natural and climate phenomenon and in fact server as a part of climate in an area and also it has significant environmental, social ,and economic consequences .drought differs from the other natural disasters from this viewpoint that it s a creeping phenomenon meaning that it progresses little and its difficult to determine the time of its onset and termination .most of the drought definitions are on based on precipitation shortage and consequently ,the shortage of water some of the activities related to the water such as agriculture In this research ,drought condition in Fars province was evacuated using SPI method within a 37 year – statistical –period(1974-2010)and maps related to the drought were prepared for each of the statistical period years. According to the results obtained from this research, the years 1974, 1976, 1975, 1982 with SPI (-1.03, 0.39, -1.05, -1.49) respectively, were the doughiest years and 1996,1997,2000 with SPI (2.49, 1.49, 1.46, 1.04) respectively, the most humid within the studying time series and the rest are in more normal conditions in the term of drought.

Keywords: Fars Province, Drought, SPI Method, Time Series

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Authors: Do Hoai Nam, Keiko Udo, Akira Mano

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This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.

Keywords: Flood forecast, rainfall-runoff model, satellite rainfall estimate, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting.

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Authors: N. Sopipan, A. Intarasit, K. Chuarkham

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 In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: Volatility, Markov Regime Switching, Forecasting.

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Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

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This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: River stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform (DWT), ensemble empirical decomposition mode (EEMD), multi-station modeling.

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Authors: Muhammad Imran, Iqra Basit, Mobushir Riaz Khan, Sajid Rasheed Ahmad

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The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.

Keywords: Landsat NDVI, panel models, temperature, rainfall.

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Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

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High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch.

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Authors: LI qiu-min, TIAN yi-xiang, ZHANG gao-xun

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GMDH algorithm can well describe the internal structure of objects. In the process of modeling, automatic screening of model structure and variables ensure the convergence rate.This paper studied a new GMDH model based on polynomial spline  stimation. The polynomial spline function was used to instead of the transfer function of GMDH to characterize the relationship between the input variables and output variables. It has proved that the algorithm has the optimal convergence rate under some conditions. The empirical results show that the algorithm can well forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Keywords: spline, GMDH, nonparametric, bias, forecast.

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Authors: Ying Xin, Shigeki Kametani

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This paper deals the energy saving performance of GHP (Gas engine heat pump) air conditioning system has improved with time-series variation. There are two types of air conditioning systems, VRF (Variable refrigerant flow) and central cooling and heating system. VRF is classified as EHP (Electric driven heat pump) and GHP. EHP drives the compressor with electric motor. GHP drives the compressor with the gas engine. The electric consumption of GHP is less than one tenth of EHP does.

In this study, the energy consumption data of GHP installed the junior high schools was collected. An annual and monthly energy consumption per rated thermal output power of each apparatus was calculated, and then their energy efficiency was analyzed. From these data, we investigated improvement of the energy saving of the GHP air conditioning system by the change in the generation.

Keywords: Energy-saving, VRF, GHP, EHP, Air Conditioning System.

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Authors: Jia Xin Low, Keng Wah Choo

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This paper presents an automatic normal and abnormal heart sound classification model developed based on deep learning algorithm. MITHSDB heart sounds datasets obtained from the 2016 PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge database were used in this research with the assumption that the electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded simultaneously with the heart sounds (phonocardiogram, PCG). The PCG time series are segmented per heart beat, and each sub-segment is converted to form a square intensity matrix, and classified using convolutional neural network (CNN) models. This approach removes the need to provide classification features for the supervised machine learning algorithm. Instead, the features are determined automatically through training, from the time series provided. The result proves that the prediction model is able to provide reasonable and comparable classification accuracy despite simple implementation. This approach can be used for real-time classification of heart sounds in Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), e.g. remote monitoring applications of PCG signal.

Keywords: Convolutional neural network, discrete wavelet transform, deep learning, heart sound classification.

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Authors: Saad Al-Baddai, Karema Al-Subari, Elmar Lang, Bernd Ludwig

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Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a new data-driven of time-series decomposition, has the advantage of supposing that a time series is non-linear or non-stationary, as is implicitly achieved in Fourier decomposition. However, the EMD suffers of mode mixing problem in some cases. The aim of this paper is to present a solution for a common type of signals causing of EMD mode mixing problem, in case a signal suffers of an intermittency. By an artificial example, the solution shows superior performance in terms of cope EMD mode mixing problem comparing with the conventional EMD and Ensemble Empirical Mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore, the over-sifting problem is also completely avoided; and computation load is reduced roughly six times compared with EEMD, an ensemble number of 50.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, mode mixing, sifting process, over-sifting.

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Authors: Harish Krishnamurthy, Anna Lafontant, Ren Yi

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Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) have been an interesting topic for most enthusiasts and hence people all over the United States report such findings online at the National UFO Report Center (NUFORC). Some of these reports are a hoax and among those that seem legitimate, our task is not to establish that these events confirm that they indeed are events related to flying objects from aliens in outer space. Rather, we intend to identify if the report was a hoax as was identified by the UFO database team with their existing curation criterion. However, the database provides a wealth of information that can be exploited to provide various analyses and insights such as social reporting, identifying real-time spatial events and much more. We perform analysis to localize these time-series geospatial events and correlate with known real-time events. This paper does not confirm any legitimacy of alien activity, but rather attempts to gather information from likely legitimate reports of UFOs by studying the online reports. These events happen in geospatial clusters and also are time-based. We look at cluster density and data visualization to search the space of various cluster realizations to decide best probable clusters that provide us information about the proximity of such activity. A random forest classifier is also presented that is used to identify true events and hoax events, using the best possible features available such as region, week, time-period and duration. Lastly, we show the performance of the scheme on various days and correlate with real-time events where one of the UFO reports strongly correlates to a missile test conducted in the United States.

Keywords: Time-series clustering, feature extraction, hoax prediction, geospatial events.

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Authors: Fatih Tosunoğlu, İbrahim Can

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The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95% of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey.

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Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

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In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, avalanches, cross-correlation, prediction method.

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Authors: G. Viswanadh Raviteja

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In this paper, a microstrip antenna array is designed for 5G applications. A corporate series feed is considered to operate with a center frequency between 27 to 28 GHz to be able to cover the 5G frequency bands 24.25-27.5 GHz, 26.5-29.5 GHz and 27.5-28.35 GHz. The substrate is taken to be Rogers RT/Duroid 6002. The corporate series 5G antenna array is designed stage by stage by taking into consideration a conventional antenna designed at 28 GHz, thereby constructing the 2X1 antenna array before arriving at the final design structure of 4-element corporate series feed antenna array. The discussions concerning S11 parameter, gain and voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) for the design structures are considered and all the important findings are tabulated. The proposed antenna array’s S11 parameter was found to be -29.00 dB at a frequency of 27.39 GHz with a good directional gain of 12.12 dB.

Keywords: Corporate series feed, millimeter wave antenna array, 5G applications, millimeter-wave (mm-wave) applications

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Authors: Irena Palić

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The main objective of the research in this paper is to empirically assess the causal relationship of private savings and economic growth in the Republic of Croatia. Households’ savings are approximated by household deposits in banks, while domestic income is approximated by industrial production volume indices. Vector Autoregression model and Granger causality tests are used to in order to analyse the relationship among private savings and economic growth. Since ADF unit root tests have shown that both mentioned series are non stationary at levels, series are first differenced in order to become stationary. Therefore, VAR model is estimated with percentage change in private savings and percentage change in domestic income, which can be interpreted as economic growth in case of positive percentage change in domestic income. The Granger causality test has shown that there is no causal relationship among private savings and economic growth in Croatia. The impulse response functions have shown that the impact of shock in domestic income on private savings change is stronger than the impact of private saving on growth. Variance decompositions show that both economic growth and private saving change explain the largest part of its own forecast variance. The research has shown that the link between private savings economic and growth in Croatia is weak, what is in line with relevant empirical research in small open economies.

Keywords: Economic growth, Granger causality, innovation analysis, private savings, Vector Autoregression model.

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Authors: Yuki. Akiyama, Hiroaki. Sengoku, Ryosuke. Shibasaki

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In this study, the locations and areas of commercial accumulations were detected by using digital yellow page data. An original buffering method that can accurately create polygons of commercial accumulations is proposed in this paper.; by using this method, distribution of commercial accumulations can be easily created and monitored over a wide area. The locations, areas, and time-series changes of commercial accumulations in the South Kanto region can be monitored by integrating polygons of commercial accumulations with the time-series data of digital yellow page data. The circumstances of commercial accumulations were shown to vary according to areas, that is, highly- urbanized regions such as the city center of Tokyo and prefectural capitals, suburban areas near large cities, and suburban and rural areas.

Keywords: Commercial accumulations, Spatio-temporal analysis, Urban monitoring, Yellow page data

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Authors: Manfred Hartmann, Andreas Graef, Hannes Perko, Christoph Baumgartner, Tilmann Kluge

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In this paper we introduce a novel method for the characterization of synchronziation and coupling effects in multivariate time series that can be used for the analysis of EEG or ECoG signals recorded during epileptic seizures. The method allows to visualize the spatio-temporal evolution of synchronization and coupling effects that are characteristic for epileptic seizures. Similar to other methods proposed for this purpose our method is based on a regression analysis. However, a more general definition of the regression together with an effective channel selection procedure allows to use the method even for time series that are highly correlated, which is commonly the case in EEG/ECoG recordings with large numbers of electrodes. The method was experimentally tested on ECoG recordings of epileptic seizures from patients with temporal lobe epilepsies. A comparision with the results from a independent visual inspection by clinical experts showed an excellent agreement with the patterns obtained with the proposed method.

Keywords: EEG, epilepsy, regression analysis, seizurepropagation.

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Authors: G. L. C. Yap

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Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Long-memory, Gaussian process, Whittle estimator, normalization, volatility, value-at-risk.

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Authors: Paul Lajbcygier, Seng Lee

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Co-integration models the long-term, equilibrium relationship of two or more related financial variables. Even if cointegration is found, in the short run, there may be deviations from the long run equilibrium relationship. The aim of this work is to forecast these deviations using neural networks and create a trading strategy based on them. A case study is used: co-integration residuals from Australian Bank Bill futures are forecast and traded using various exogenous input variables combined with neural networks. The choice of the optimal exogenous input variables chosen for each neural network, undertaken in previous work [1], is validated by comparing the forecasts and corresponding profitability of each, using a trading strategy.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, co-integration, forecasting, trading rule.

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Authors: Buket Turan Azizoğlu

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In switch mode power inverters, small sized inverters can be obtained by increasing the switching frequency. Switching frequency increment causes high driver losses. Also, high dt di and dt dv produced by the switching action creates high Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) and Radio Frequency Interference (RFI). In this paper, a series half bridge series resonant inverter circuit is simulated and evaluated practically to demonstrate the turn-on and turn-off conditions during zero or close to zero voltage switching. Also, the reverse recovery current effects of the body diode of the MOSFETs were investigated by operating above and below resonant frequency.

Keywords: Driver losses, Half Bridge series resonant inverter, Zero Voltage Switching

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Authors: Rajendraprasad Narne, P. C. Panda

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In this article, coordinated tuning of power system stabilizer (PSS) with static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series capacitor (TCSC) in multi-machine power system is proposed. The design of proposed coordinated damping controller is formulated as an optimization problem and the controller gains are optimized instantaneously using advanced adaptive particle swarm optimization (AAPSO). The objective function is framed with the inter-area speed deviations of the generators and it is minimized using AAPSO to improve the dynamic stability of power system under severe disturbance. The proposed coordinated controller performance is evaluated under a wide range of system operating conditions with three-phase fault disturbance. Using time domain simulations the damping characteristics of proposed controller is compared with individually tuned PSS, SVC and TCSC controllers. Finally, the real-time simulations are carried out in Opal-RT hardware simulator to synchronize the proposed controller performance in the real world.

Keywords: Advanced adaptive particle swarm optimization, Coordinated design, Power system stabilizer, Real-time implementation, static var compensator, Thyristor controlled series capacitor.

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Authors: Ju Young Lee, Jung-Seok Yang, Jaeyoung Choi

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The purpose of this paper primarily intends to develop GIS interface for estimating sequences of stream-flows at ungauged stations based on known flows at gauged stations. The integrated GIS interface is composed of three major steps. The first, precipitation characteristics using statistical analysis is the procedure for making multiple linear regression equation to get the long term mean daily flow at ungauged stations. The independent variables in regression equation are mean daily flow and drainage area. Traditionally, mean flow data are generated by using Thissen polygon method. However, method for obtaining mean flow data can be selected by user such as Kriging, IDW (Inverse Distance Weighted), Spline methods as well as other traditional methods. At the second, flow duration curve (FDC) is computing at unguaged station by FDCs in gauged stations. Finally, the mean annual daily flow is computed by spatial interpolation algorithm. The third step is to obtain watershed/topographic characteristics. They are the most important factors which govern stream-flows. In summary, the simulated daily flow time series are compared with observed times series. The results using integrated GIS interface are closely similar and are well fitted each other. Also, the relationship between the topographic/watershed characteristics and stream flow time series is highly correlated.

Keywords: Integrated GIS interface, spatial interpolation algorithm, FDC.

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Authors: Anastasia K. Eleftheriadou, Athanasios Sfetsos, Nikolaos Gounaris

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The current paper presents an extensive bottom-up framework for assessing building sector-specific vulnerability to climate change: energy supply and demand. The research focuses on the application of downscaled seasonal models for estimating energy performance of buildings in Greece. The ARW-WRF model has been set-up and suitably parameterized to produce downscaled climatological fields for Greece, forced by the output of the CFSv2 model. The outer domain, D01/Europe, included 345 x 345 cells of horizontal resolution 20 x 20 km2 and the inner domain, D02/Greece, comprised 180 x 180 cells of 5 x 5 km2 horizontal resolution. The model run has been setup for a period with a forecast horizon of 6 months, storing outputs on a six hourly basis.

Keywords: Urban environment, vulnerability, climate change, energy performance, seasonal forecast models.

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Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

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ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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Authors: J. Wozniak, M. Kostecki, K. Broniszewski, W. Bochniak, A. Olszyna

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The influence of extrusion parameters on surface quality and properties of AA6061+x% vol. SiC (x = 0; 2,5; 5; 7,5;10) composites was discussed in this paper. The averages size of AA6061 and SiC particles were 10.6 μm and 0.42 μm, respectively. Two series of composites (I - compacts were preheated at extrusion temperature through 0.5 h and cooled by water directly after process; II - compacts were preheated through 3 hours and were not cooled) were consolidated via powder metallurgy processing and extruded by KoBo method. High values of density for both series of composites were achieved. Better surface quality was observed for II series of composites. Moreover, for these composites lower (compared to I series) but more uniform strength properties over the cross-section of the bar were noticed. Microstructure and Young-s modulus investigations were made.

Keywords: aluminum alloy, extrusion, metal matrix composites, microstructure

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