Search results for: stochastic uncertainty analysis

Authors: Mohammed A. Hajeeh

Abstract:

This paper examines the behavior of a system, which upon failure is either replaced with certain probability p or imperfectly repaired with probability q. The system is analyzed using Kolmogorov's forward equations method; the analytical expression for the steady state availability is derived as an indicator of the system’s performance. It is found that the analysis becomes more complex as the number of imperfect repairs increases. It is also observed that the availability increases as the number of states and replacement probability increases. Using such an approach in more complex configurations and in dynamic systems is cumbersome; therefore, it is advisable to resort to simulation or heuristics. In this paper, an example is provided for demonstration.

Keywords: Repairable models, imperfect, availability, exponential distribution.

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Authors: S. Hamid Mirmohammadi, Shahrazad Tamjidzad

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This paper is concerned with the single-item continuous review inventory system in which demand is stochastic and discrete. The budget consumed for purchasing the ordered items is not restricted but it incurs extra cost when exceeding specific value. The unit purchasing price depends on the quantity ordered under the all-units discounts cost structure. In many actual systems, the budget as a resource which is occupied by the purchased items is limited and the system is able to confront the resource shortage by charging more costs. Thus, considering the resource shortage costs as a part of system costs, especially when the amount of resource occupied by the purchased item is influenced by quantity discounts, is well motivated by practical concerns. In this paper, an optimization problem is formulated for finding the optimal (r, Q) policy, when the system is influenced by the budget limitation and a discount pricing simultaneously. Properties of the cost function are investigated and then an algorithm based on a one-dimensional search procedure is proposed for finding an optimal (r, Q) policy which minimizes the expected system costs.

Keywords: (r, Q) policy, Stochastic demand, backorders, limited resource, quantity discounts.

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Authors: Aynaz Lotfata

Abstract:

Planning community has been long discussing emerging paradigms within the planning theory in the face of the changing conditions of the world order. The paradigm shift concept was introduced by Thomas Kuhn, in 1960, who claimed the necessity of shifting within scientific knowledge boundaries; and following him in 1970 Imre Loktas also gave priority to the emergence of multi-paradigm societies [24]. Multi-paradigm is changing our predetermined lifeworld through uncertainties. Those uncertainties are reflected in two sides, the first one is uncertainty as a concept of possibility and creativity in public sphere and the second one is uncertainty as a risk. Therefore, it is necessary to apply a resilience planning approach to be more dynamic in controlling uncertainties which have the potential to transfigure present time and space definitions. In this way, stability of system can be achieved. Uncertainty is not only an outcome of worldwide changes but also a place-specific issue, i.e. it changes from continent to continent, a country to country; a region to region. Therefore, applying strategic spatial planning with respect to resilience principle contributes to: control, grasp and internalize uncertainties through place-specific strategies. In today-s fast changing world, planning system should follow strategic spatial projects to control multi-paradigm societies with adaptability capacities. Here, we have selected two alternatives to demonstrate; these are; 1.Tehran (Iran) from the Middle East 2.Bath (United Kingdom) from Europe. The study elaborates uncertainties and particularities in their strategic spatial planning processes in a comparative manner. Through the comparison, the study aims at assessing place-specific priorities in strategic planning. The approach is to a two-way stream, where the case cities from the extreme end of the spectrum can learn from each other. The structure of this paper is to firstly compare semi-periphery (Tehran) and coreperiphery (Bath) cities, with the focus to reveal how they equip to face with uncertainties according to their geographical locations and local particularities. Secondly, the key message to address is “Each locality requires its own strategic planning approach to be resilient.--

Keywords: Adaptation, Relational Network, Socio-Spatial Strategic Resiliency, Uncertainty.

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Recently, feedback control systems using random dither quantizers have been proposed for linear discrete-time systems. However, the constraints imposed on state and control variables have not yet been taken into account for the design of feedback control systems with random dither quantization. Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. An important advantage of model predictive control is its ability to handle constraints imposed on state and control variables. Based on the model predictive control approach, the objective of this paper is to present a control method that satisfies probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, this paper provides a method for solving the optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: Optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete-time systems, probabilistic constraints, random dither quantization.

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Authors: Tomi Roinila, Aki Taskinen, Matti Vilkko

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Switched-mode converters play now a significant role in modern society. Their operation are often crucial in various electrical applications affecting the every day life. Therefore, the quality of the converters needs to be reliably verified. Recent studies have shown that the converters can be fully characterized by a set of frequency responses which can be efficiently used to validate the proper operation of the converters. Consequently, several methods have been proposed to measure the frequency responses fast and accurately. Most often correlation-based techniques have been applied. The presented measurement methods are highly sensitive to external errors and system nonlinearities. This fact has been often forgotten and the necessary uncertainty analysis of the measured responses has been neglected. This paper presents a simple approach to analyze the noise and nonlinearities in the frequency-response measurements of switched-mode converters. Coherence analysis is applied to form a confidence interval characterizing the noise and nonlinearities involved in the measurements. The presented method is verified by practical measurements from a high-frequency switchedmode converter.

Keywords: Switched-mode converters, Frequency analysis, CoherenceAnalysis.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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Authors: S. Balaji, E. Golden Julie, M. Rajaram, Y. Harold Robinson

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Network lifetime improvement and uncertainty in multiple systems are the issues of wireless sensor network routing. This paper presents fuzzy based particle swarm optimization routing technique to improve the network scalability. Significantly, in the cluster formation procedure, fuzzy based system is used to solve the uncertainty and network balancing. Cluster heads play an important role to reduce the energy consumption using particle swarm optimization algorithm, the cluster head sends its information along data packets to the heads with link. The simulation results show that the presented routing protocol can perform load balancing effectively and reduce the energy consumption of cluster heads.

Keywords: Wireless sensor networks, fuzzy logic, PSO, LEACH.

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: Climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Fighter aircraft selection is one of the most critical strategies for defense multiple criteria decision-making analysis to increase the decisive power of air defense and its superior power in the defense strategy. Vague set theory is an adequate approach for modeling vagueness, uncertainty, and imprecision in decision-making problems. This study integrates vague set theory and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support fighter aircraft selection. The proposed method is applied in the selection of fighter aircraft for the Air Force. In the proposed approach, the ratings of alternatives and the importance weights of criteria for fighter aircraft selection are represented by the vague set theory. Finally, an illustrative example for fighter aircraft selection is given to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The fighter aircraft candidates were selected under six criteria including costability, payloadability, maneuverability, speedability, stealthility, and survivability. Analysis results show that the best fighter aircraft is selected with the highest closeness coefficient value. The proposed method can also be applied to solve other multiple criteria decision analysis problems. 

Keywords: fighter aircraft selection, vague set theory, fuzzy set theory, neutrosophic set theory, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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Authors: Aryanejad Mir Bahador Goli, Zahra Honarmand Shah Zileh

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In most study fields, a phenomenon may not be studied directly but it will be examined indirectly by phenomenon model. Making an accurate model of system, there is attained new information from modeled phenomenon without any charge, danger, etc... there have been developed more solutions for describing and analyzing the recent complicated systems but few of them have analyzed the performance in the range of system description. Petri nets are of limited solutions which may make such union. Petri nets are being applied in problems related to modeling and designing the systems. Theory of Petri nets allow a system to model mathematically by a Petri net and analyzing the Petri net can then determine main information of modeled system-s structure and dynamic. This information can be used for assessing the performance of systems and suggesting corrections in the system. In this paper, beside the introduction of Petri nets, a real case study will be studied in order to show the application of generalized stochastic Petri nets in modeling a resource sharing production system and evaluating the efficiency of its machines and robots. The modeling tool used here is SHARP software which calculates specific indicators helping to make decision.

Keywords: Flexible manufacturing system, generalizedstochastic Petri nets, Markov chain, performance evaluation.

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Authors: Abdalla Kablan, Joseph Falzon

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This paper is motivated by the aspect of uncertainty in financial decision making, and how artificial intelligence and soft computing, with its uncertainty reducing aspects can be used for algorithmic trading applications that trade in high frequency. This paper presents an optimized high frequency trading system that has been combined with various moving averages to produce a hybrid system that outperforms trading systems that rely solely on moving averages. The paper optimizes an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system that takes both the price and its moving average as input, learns to predict price movements from training data consisting of intraday data, dynamically switches between the best performing moving averages, and performs decision making of when to buy or sell a certain currency in high frequency.

Keywords: Financial decision making, High frequency trading, Adaprive neuro-fuzzy systems, moving average strategy.

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: Weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo Simulation, permeability coefficient.

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Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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Authors: T. T. Manikandan, Rajeev Sukumaran

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For maintaining the biodiversity of many ecosystems the existence of coral reefs play a vital role. But due to many factors such as pollution and coral mining, coral reefs are dying day by day. One way to protect the coral reefs is to farm them in a carefully monitored underwater environment and restore it in place of dead corals. For successful farming of corals in coral farms, different parameters of the water in the farming area need to be monitored and maintained at optimal level. Sensing underwater parameters using wireless sensor nodes is an effective way for precise and continuous monitoring in a highly dynamic environment like oceans. Here the sensed information is of varying importance and it needs to be provided with desired Quality of Service(QoS) guarantees in delivering the information to offshore monitoring centers. The main interest of this research is Stochastic Network Calculus (SNC) based modeling of network layer design for underwater wireless sensor communication. The model proposed in this research enforces differentiation of service in underwater wireless sensor communication with the help of buffer sizing and link scheduling. The delay and backlog bounds for such differentiated services are analytically derived using stochastic network calculus.

Keywords: Underwater Coral Farms, SNC, differentiated service, delay bound, backlog bound.

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Authors: Safaa R. Amer

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Missing data yields many analysis challenges. In case of complex survey design, in addition to dealing with missing data, researchers need to account for the sampling design to achieve useful inferences. Methods for incorporating sampling weights in neural network imputation were investigated to account for complex survey designs. An estimate of variance to account for the imputation uncertainty as well as the sampling design using neural networks will be provided. A simulation study was conducted to compare estimation results based on complete case analysis, multiple imputation using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and neural network imputation. Furthermore, a public-use dataset was used as an example to illustrate neural networks imputation under a complex survey design

Keywords: Complex survey, estimate, imputation, neural networks, variance.

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Authors: M Ahmadigorji, A. Abbaspour, A Rajabi-Ghahnavieh, M. Fotuhi- Firuzabad

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DG application has received increasing attention during recent years. The impact of DG on various aspects of distribution system operation, such as reliability and energy loss, depend highly on DG location in distribution feeder. Optimal DG placement is an important subject which has not been fully discussed yet. This paper presents an optimization method to determine optimal DG placement, based on a cost/worth analysis approach. This method considers technical and economical factors such as energy loss, load point reliability indices and DG costs, and particularly, portability of DG. The proposed method is applied to a test system and the impacts of different parameters such as load growth rate and load forecast uncertainty (LFU) on optimum DG location are studied.

Keywords: Distributed generation, optimal placement, cost/worthanalysis, customer interruption cost, Dynamic programming

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Authors: Maumita Bhattacharya

Abstract:

Optimization is often a critical issue for most system design problems. Evolutionary Algorithms are population-based, stochastic search techniques, widely used as efficient global optimizers. However, finding optimal solution to complex high dimensional, multimodal problems often require highly computationally expensive function evaluations and hence are practically prohibitive. The Dynamic Approximate Fitness based Hybrid EA (DAFHEA) model presented in our earlier work [14] reduced computation time by controlled use of meta-models to partially replace the actual function evaluation by approximate function evaluation. However, the underlying assumption in DAFHEA is that the training samples for the meta-model are generated from a single uniform model. Situations like model formation involving variable input dimensions and noisy data certainly can not be covered by this assumption. In this paper we present an enhanced version of DAFHEA that incorporates a multiple-model based learning approach for the SVM approximator. DAFHEA-II (the enhanced version of the DAFHEA framework) also overcomes the high computational expense involved with additional clustering requirements of the original DAFHEA framework. The proposed framework has been tested on several benchmark functions and the empirical results illustrate the advantages of the proposed technique.

Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, Fitness function, Optimization, Meta-model, Stochastic method.

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Authors: Nasim Ullah, Shaoping Wang

Abstract:

ELS is an important ground based hardware in the loop simulator used for aerodynamics torque loading experiments of the actuators under test. This work focuses on improvement of the transient response of torque controller with parameters uncertainty of Electrical Load Simulator (ELS).The parameters of load simulator are estimated online and the model is updated, eliminating the model error and improving the steady state torque tracking response of torque controller. To improve the Transient control performance the gain of robust term of SMC is updated online using fuzzy logic system based on the amount of uncertainty in parameters of load simulator. The states of load simulator which cannot be measured directly are estimated using luenberger observer with update of new estimated parameters. The stability of the control scheme is verified using Lyapunov theorem. The validity of proposed control scheme is verified using simulations.

Keywords: ELS, Observer, Transient Performance, SMC, Extra Torque, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: Orhan Feyzioğlu, Gülçin Büyüközkan

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As a vital activity for companies, new product development (NPD) is also a very risky process due to the high uncertainty degree encountered at every development stage and the inevitable dependence on how previous steps are successfully accomplished. Hence, there is an apparent need to evaluate new product initiatives systematically and make accurate decisions under uncertainty. Another major concern is the time pressure to launch a significant number of new products to preserve and increase the competitive power of the company. In this work, we propose an integrated decision-making framework based on neural networks and fuzzy logic to make appropriate decisions and accelerate the evaluation process. We are especially interested in the two initial stages where new product ideas are selected (go/no go decision) and the implementation order of the corresponding projects are determined. We show that this two-staged intelligent approach allows practitioners to roughly and quickly separate good and bad product ideas by making use of previous experiences, and then, analyze a more shortened list rigorously.

Keywords: Decision Making, Neural Networks, Fuzzy Theory and Systems, Choquet Integral, New Product Development.

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Authors: T. Brahimi, F. Saeed, I. Paraschivoiu

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This paper details the progress made in the development of the different state-of-the-art aerodynamic tools for the analysis of vertical axis wind turbines including the flow simulation around the blade, viscous flow, stochastic wind, and dynamic stall effects. The paper highlights the capabilities of the developed wind turbine aerodynamic codes over the last thirty years which are currently being used in North America and Europe by Sandia Laboratories, FloWind, IMST Marseilles, and Hydro-Quebec among others. The aerodynamic codes developed at Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Canada, represent valuable tools for simulating the flow around wind turbines including secondary effects. Comparison of theoretical results with experimental data have shown good agreement. The strength of the aerodynamic codes based on Double-Multiple Stream tube model (DMS) lies in its simplicity, accuracy, and ability to analyze secondary effects that interfere with wind turbine aerodynamic calculations.

Keywords: Aerodynamics, wind turbines, VAWT, CARDAAV, Darrieus, dynamic stall.

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Authors: Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa

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Renewable Energy based microgrids are being considered to provide electricity for the expanding energy demand in the grid distribution network and grid isolated areas. The technical challenges associated with the operation and controls are immense. Electricity generation by Renewable Energy Sources is of stochastic nature such that there is a demand for regulation of voltage output in order to satisfy the standard loads’ requirements. In a renewable energy based microgrid, the energy sources give stochastically variable magnitude AC or DC voltages. AC voltage regulation of micro and mini sources pose practical challenges as well as unbearable costs. It is therefore practically and economically viable to convert the voltage outputs from stochastic AC and DC voltage sources to constant DC voltage to satisfy various DC loads including inverters which ultimately feed AC loads. This paper presents results obtained from SEPIC converter based DC bus voltage regulator as a case study for renewable energy microgrid application. Real-Time Simulation results show that upon appropriate choice of controller parameters for control of the SEPIC converter, the output DC bus voltage can be kept constant regardless of wide range of voltage variations of the source. This feature is particularly important in the situation that multiple renewable sources are to be integrated to supply a microgrid under main grid integration or isolated modes of operation.

Keywords: DC Voltage Regulator, microgrid, multisource, Renewable Energy, SEPIC Converter.

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Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

Abstract:

The study was carried out to establish the probability density function of some selected building construction projects of similar complexity delivered using Bill of Quantities (BQ) and Lump Sum (LS) forms of contract, and to draw a reliability scenario for each form of contract. 30 of such delivered projects are analyzed for each of the contract forms using Weibull Analysis, and their Weibull functions (α, and β) are determined based on their completion times. For the BQ form of contract delivered projects, α is calculated as 1.6737E20 and β as + 0.0115 and for the LS form, α is found to be 5.6556E03 and β is determined as + 0.4535. Using these values, respective probability density functions are calculated and plotted, as handy tool for risk analysis of future projects of similar characteristics. By input of variables from other projects, decision making processes can be made for a whole project or its components using EVM Analysis in project evaluation and review techniques. This framework, as a quantitative approach, depends on the assumption of normality in projects completion time, it can help greatly in determining the completion time probability for veritable projects using any of the contract forms under consideration. Projects aspects that are not amenable to measurement, on the other hand, can be analyzed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. This scenario can be drawn for different types of building construction projects, and using different suitable forms of contract in projects delivery.

Keywords: Building construction, Projects, Forms of contract, Probability density function, Reliability scenario.

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Authors: J.H. Park, S. Lakshmanan, H.Y. Jung, S.M. Lee

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This paper is concerned with the delay-distributiondependent stability criteria for bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays. Based on the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and stochastic analysis approach, a delay-probability-distribution-dependent sufficient condition is derived to achieve the globally asymptotically mean square stable of the considered BAM neural networks. The criteria are formulated in terms of a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be checked efficiently by use of some standard numerical packages. Finally, a numerical example and its simulation is given to demonstrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed results.

Keywords: BAM neural networks, Probabilistic time-varying delays, Stability criteria.

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Authors: Nisarg A. Patel, Hiren B. Patel

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Quantum cryptography is described as a point-to-point secure key generation technology that has emerged in recent times in providing absolute security. Researchers have started studying new innovative approaches to exploit the security of Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) for a large-scale communication system. A number of approaches and models for utilization of QKD for secure communication have been developed. The uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics created a new paradigm for QKD. One of the approaches for use of QKD involved network fashioned security. The main goal was point-to-point Quantum network that exploited QKD technology for end-to-end network security via high speed QKD. Other approaches and models equipped with QKD in network fashion are introduced in the literature as. A different approach that this paper deals with is using QKD in existing protocols, which are widely used on the Internet to enhance security with main objective of unconditional security. Our work is towards the analysis of the QKD in Mobile ad-hoc network (MANET).

Keywords: QKD, cryptography, quantum cryptography, network performance.

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Authors: Zuzana Dideková, Beata Mikovičová

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Characterization of radio communication signals aims at automatic recognition of different characteristics of radio signals in order to detect their modulation type, the central frequency, and the level. Our purpose is to apply techniques used in image processing in order to extract pertinent characteristics. To the single analysis, we add several rules for checking the consistency of hypotheses using fuzzy logic. This allows taking into account ambiguity and uncertainty that may remain after the extraction of individual characteristics. The aim is to improve the process of radio communications characterization.

Keywords: fuzzy classification, fuzzy inference system, radio communication signals, telecommunications

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Authors: E. Praynlin, P. Latha

Abstract:

Software Effort Estimation is the process of estimating the effort required to develop software. By estimating the effort, the cost and schedule required to estimate the software can be determined. Accurate Estimate helps the developer to allocate the resource accordingly in order to avoid cost overrun and schedule overrun. Several methods are available in order to estimate the effort among which soft computing based method plays a prominent role. Software cost estimation deals with lot of uncertainty among all soft computing methods neural network is good in handling uncertainty. In this paper Radial Basis Function Network is compared with the back propagation network and the results are validated using six data sets and it is found that RBFN is best suitable to estimate the effort. The Results are validated using two tests the error test and the statistical test.

Keywords: Software cost estimation, Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN), Back propagation function network, Mean Magnitude of Relative Error (MMRE).

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Authors: Svetlana Cojocaru, Mircea Petic, Inga Titchiev

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Humanity faces more and more often with different social disasters, which in turn can generate new accidents and catastrophes. To mitigate their consequences, it is important to obtain early possible signals about the events which are or can occur and to prepare the corresponding scenarios that could be applied. Our research is focused on solving two problems in this domain: identifying signals related that an accident occurred or may occur and mitigation of some consequences of disasters. To solve the first problem, methods of selecting and processing texts from global network Internet are developed. Information in Romanian is of special interest for us. In order to obtain the mentioned tools, we should follow several steps, divided into preparatory stage and processing stage. Throughout the first stage, we manually collected over 724 news articles and classified them into 10 categories of social disasters. It constitutes more than 150 thousand words. Using this information, a controlled vocabulary of more than 300 keywords was elaborated, that will help in the process of classification and identification of the texts related to the field of social disasters. To solve the second problem, the formalism of Petri net has been used. We deal with the problem of inhabitants’ evacuation in useful time. The analysis methods such as reachability or coverability tree and invariants technique to determine dynamic properties of the modeled systems will be used. To perform a case study of properties of extended evacuation system by adding time, the analysis modules of PIPE such as Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) Analysis, Simulation, State Space Analysis, and Invariant Analysis have been used. These modules helped us to obtain the average number of persons situated in the rooms and the other quantitative properties and characteristics related to its dynamics.

Keywords: Lexicon of disasters, modelling, Petri nets, text annotation, social disasters.

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Authors: Mahdi Mazinani, S. D. Qanadli, Rahil Hosseini, Tim Ellis, Jamshid Dehmeshki

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Segmentation and quantification of stenosis is an important task in assessing coronary artery disease. One of the main challenges is measuring the real diameter of curved vessels. Moreover, uncertainty in segmentation of different tissues in the narrow vessel is an important issue that affects accuracy. This paper proposes an algorithm to extract coronary arteries and measure the degree of stenosis. Markovian fuzzy clustering method is applied to model uncertainty arises from partial volume effect problem. The algorithm employs: segmentation, centreline extraction, estimation of orthogonal plane to centreline, measurement of the degree of stenosis. To evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility, the approach has been applied to a vascular phantom and the results are compared with real diameter. The results of 10 patient datasets have been visually judged by a qualified radiologist. The results reveal the superiority of the proposed method compared to the Conventional thresholding Method (CTM) on both datasets.

Keywords: 3D coronary artery tree extraction, segmentation, quantification, fuzzy clustering, and Markov random field

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Authors: Takeshi Takeda

Abstract:

The author conducted post-test analysis with the RELAP5/MOD3.3 code for an experiment using the ROSA/LSTF (rig of safety assessment/large-scale test facility) that simulated a 1% cold leg small-break loss-of-coolant accident under the failure of scram in a pressurized water reactor. The LSTF test assumed total failure of high-pressure injection system of emergency core cooling system. In the LSTF test, natural circulation contributed to maintain core cooling effect for a relatively long time until core uncovery occurred. The post-test analysis result confirmed inadequate prediction of the primary coolant distribution. The author created the phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) for each component. The author investigated the influences of uncertain parameters determined by the PIRT on the cladding surface temperature at a certain time during core uncovery within the defined uncertain ranges.

Keywords: LSTF, LOCA, scram, RELAP5.

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Authors: S. Sadi-Nezhad, K. Khalili Damghani, N. Pilevari

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In this article, a mathematical programming model for choosing an optimum portfolio of investments is developed. The investments are considered as investment projects. The uncertainties of the real world are associated through fuzzy concepts for coefficients of the proposed model (i. e. initial investment costs, profits, resource requirement, and total available budget). Model has been coded by using LINGO 11.0 solver. The results of a full analysis of optimistic and pessimistic derivative models are promising for selecting an optimum portfolio of projects in presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: Fuzzy Programming, Fuzzy Knapsack, FuzzyCapital Budgeting, Fuzzy Project Selection

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