Search results for: reliability index

Authors: Seong-wan Baik, Soo-young Ye, Byeong-cheol Choi, Gye-rok Jeon

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The measurement of anesthetic depth is necessary in anesthesiology. NN10 is very simple method among the RR intervals analysis methods. NN10 parameter means the numbers of above the 10 ms intervals of the normal to normal RR intervals. Bispectrum analysis is defined as 2D FFT. EEG signal reflected the non-linear peristalsis phenomena according to the change brain function. After analyzing the bispectrum of the 2 dimension, the most significant power spectrum density peaks appeared abundantly at the specific area in awakening and anesthesia state. These points are utilized to create the new index since many peaks appeared at the specific area in the frequency coordinate. The measured range of an index was 0-100. An index is 20-50 at an anesthesia, while the index is 90-60 at the awake. In this paper, the relation between NN10 parameter using ECG and bisepctrum index using EEG is observed to estimate the depth of anesthesia during anesthesia and then we estimated the utility of the anesthetic.

Keywords: Anesthesia, Bispectrum index, ECG, EEG

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Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan

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The purpose of this study was to develop a “teachers’ self-efficacy scale for high school physical education teachers (TSES-HSPET)” in Taiwan. This scale is based on the self-efficacy theory of Bandura [1], [2]. This study used exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses to test the reliability and validity. The participants were high school physical education teachers in Taiwan. Both stratified random sampling and cluster sampling were used to sample participants for the study. 350 teachers were sampled in the first stage and 234 valid scales (male 133, female 101) returned. During the second stage, 350 teachers were sampled and 257 valid scales (male 143, female 110, 4 did not indicate gender) returned. The exploratory factor analysis was used in the first stage, and it got 60.77% of total variance for construct validity. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of internal consistency was 0.91 for sumscale, and subscales were 0.84 and 0.90. In the second stage, confirmatory factor analysis was used to test construct validity. The result showed that the fit index could be accepted (χ2 (75) =167.94, p <.05, RMSEA =0.07, SRMR=0.05, GFI=0.92, NNFI=0.97, CFI=0.98, PNFI=0.79). Average variance extracted of latent variables were 0.43 and 0.53, which composite reliability are 0.78 and 0.90. It is concluded that the TSES-HSPET is a well-considered measurement instrument with acceptable validity and reliability. It may be used to estimate teachers’ self-efficacy for high school physical education teachers.

Keywords: teaching in physical education, teacher's self-efficacy, teacher's belief

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Authors: Ki-Young Kim, Jae-Ho Lim, Deok-Min Kim, Seok-Yoon Kim

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Average current analysis checking the impact of current flow is very important to guarantee the reliability of semiconductor systems. As semiconductor process technologies improve, the coupling capacitance often become bigger than self capacitances. In this paper, we propose an analytic technique for analyzing average current on interconnects in multi-conductor structures. The proposed technique has shown to yield the acceptable errors compared to HSPICE results while providing computational efficiency.

Keywords: current moment, interconnect modeling, reliability analysis, worst-case switching

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Authors: G.V.K Murthy, S. Sivanagaraju, S. Satyanarayana, B. Hanumantha Rao

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Distributed Generation (DG) systems are considered an integral part in future distribution system planning. Appropriate size and location of distributed generation plays a significant role in minimizing power losses in distribution systems. Among the benefits of distributed generation is the reduction in active power losses, which can improve the system performance, reliability and power quality. In this paper, Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal DG-unit size and location by loss sensitivity index in order to minimize the real power loss, total harmonic distortion (THD) and voltage sag index improvement. Simulation study is conducted on 69-bus radial test system to verify the efficacy of the proposed method.

Keywords: Distributed generation, artificial bee colony method, loss reduction, radial distribution network.

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Authors: Ekkaluk Eksook, Chutima Prommak

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This paper address the network reliability optimization problem in the optical access network design for the 3G cellular systems. We presents a novel 0-1 integer programming model for designing optical access network topologies comprised of multi-rings with common-edge in order to guarantee always-on services. The results show that the proposed model yields access network topologies with the optimal reliablity and satisfies both network cost limitations and traffic demand requirements.

Keywords: Network Reliability, Topological Network Design, 3G Cellular Networks.

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Authors: Yaşar Baykul, Musa Gürsel, Hacı Sulak, Erhan Ertekin, Ersen Yazıcı, Osman Dülger, Yasin Aslan, Kağan Büyükkarcı

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The reliability of the tools developed to learn the learning styles is essential to find out students- learning styles trustworthily. For this purpose, the psychometric features of Grasha- Riechman Student Learning Style Inventory developed by Grasha was studied to contribute to this field. The study was carried out on 6th, 7th, and 8th graders of 10 primary education schools in Konya. The inventory was applied twice with an interval of one month, and according to the data of this application, the reliability coefficient numbers of the 6 sub-dimensions pointed in the theory of the inventory was found to be medium. Besides, it was found that the inventory does not have a structure with 6 factors for both Mathematics and English courses as represented in the theory.

Keywords: Learning styles, Grasha-Riechmann, reliability, validity.

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Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: Structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, mixing approaches, point estimate method, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Mansab Ali, Muhammad Khalid Khan

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The advances in wireless communication have opened unlimited horizons but there are some challenges as well. The Nature derived air medium between MS (Mobile Station) and BS (Base Station) is beyond human control and produces channel impairment. The impact of the natural conditions at the air medium is the biggest issue in wireless communication. Natural conditions make reliability more cumbersome; here reliability refers to the efficient recovery of the lost or erroneous data. The SR-ARQ (Selective Repeat-Automatic Repeat Request) protocol is a de facto standard for any wireless technology at the air interface with its standard reliability features. Our focus in this research is on the reliability of the control or feedback signal of the SR-ARQ protocol. The proposed mechanism, RSR-ARQ (Reliable SR-ARQ) is an enhancement of the SR-ARQ protocol that has ensured the reliability of the control signals through channel impairment sensitive mechanism. We have modeled the system under two-state discrete time Markov Channel. The simulation results demonstrate the better recovery of the lost or erroneous data that will increase the overall system performance.

Keywords: ISR-ARQ, MAA, RSR-ARQ, SAA.

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Authors: Yuan-Lin Chen

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This paper presents an approaching forward collision probability index (AFCPI) for alerting and assisting driver in keeping safety distance to avoid the forward collision accident in highway driving. The time to collision (TTC) and time headway (TH) are used to evaluate the TTC forward collision probability index (TFCPI) and the TH forward collision probability index (HFCPI), respectively. The Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm is presented combining TFCPI and HFCPI to calculate the approaching collision probability index of the vehicle. The AFCPI is easier to understand for the driver who did not even have any professional knowledge in vehicle professional field. At the same time, the driver’s behavior is taken into account for suiting each driver. For the approaching index, the value 0 is indicating the 0% probability of forward collision, and the values 0.5 and 1 are indicating the 50% and 100% probabilities of forward collision, respectively. The AFCPI is useful and easy-to-understand for alerting driver to avoid the forward collision accidents when driving in highway.

Keywords: Approaching index, forward collision probability, time to collision, time headway.

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Authors: Carl D. Hays III

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The purpose of this theory paper is to add a reliability indicator to Operating Equipment Effectiveness (OpEE) which is used to evaluate the productivity of machines and equipment with wheels and tracks. OpEE is a derivative of Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) which has been widely used for many decades in factories that manufacture products. OEE has three variables, Availability Rate, Work Rate, and Quality Rate. When OpEE was converted from OEE, the Quality Rate variable was replaced with Travel Rate. Travel Rate is essentially utilization which is a common performance indicator in machines and equipment. OpEE was designed for machines operated in remote locations such as forests, roads, fields, and farms. This theory paper intends to add the Quality Rate variable back to OpEE by including a reliability indicator in the dashboard view. This paper will suggest that the OEE quality variable can be used with a reliability metric and combined with the OpEE score. With this dashboard view of both performance metrics and reliability, fleet managers will have a more complete understanding of equipment productivity and reliability. This view will provide both leading and lagging indicators of performance in machines and equipment. The lagging indicators will indicate the trends and the leading indicators will provide an overall performance score to manage.

Keywords: Operating Equipment Effectiveness, Operating Equipment Effectiveness, IoT, Contamination Monitoring.

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Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi, Mojtaba Mahdavi

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This paper tries to represent a new method for computing the reliability of a system which is arranged in series or parallel model. In this method we estimate life distribution function of whole structure using the asymptotic Extreme Value (EV) distribution of Type I, or Gumbel theory. We use EV distribution in minimal mode, for estimate the life distribution function of series structure and maximal mode for parallel system. All parameters also are estimated by Moments method. Reliability function and failure (hazard) rate and p-th percentile point of each function are determined. Other important indexes such as Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), Mean Time to repair (MTTR), for non-repairable and renewal systems in both of series and parallel structure will be computed.

Keywords: Reliability, extreme value, parallel, series, lifedistribution

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Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life-cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: Initial Cost, Life-cycle cost, Maintenance Cost, Reliability.

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Authors: Seyed Ali Sadat Noori, Elham Sahebi Bazaz

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Topological changes in mobile ad hoc networks frequently render routing paths unusable. Such recurrent path failures have detrimental effects on quality of service. A suitable technique for eliminating this problem is to use multiple backup paths between the source and the destination in the network. This paper proposes an effective and efficient protocol for backup and disjoint path set in ad hoc wireless network. This protocol converges to a highly reliable path set very fast with no message exchange overhead. The paths selection according to this algorithm is beneficial for mobile ad hoc networks, since it produce a set of backup paths with more high reliability. Simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of our algorithm in terms of route numbers in the path set and its reliability. In order to acquire link reliability estimates, we use link expiration time (LET) between two nodes.

Keywords: Wireless Ad Hoc Networks, Reliability, Routing, Disjoint Path

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Authors: N.A.M. Yahya, W.H. Lim, S.W. Phang, H. Ahmad, R. Zakaria, F.R. Mahamd Adikan

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Refractive index control of benzocyclobutene (BCB 4024-40) is achieved by facilitating different conditions during the thermal curing of BCB film. Refractive index (RI) change of 1.49% is obtained with curing of BCB film using an oven, while the RI change is 0.1% when the BCB is cured using a hotplate. The two different curing methods exhibit a temperature dependent refractive index change of the BCB photosensitive polymer. By carefully controlling the curing conditions, multiple layers of BCB with different RI can be fabricated, which can then be applied in the fabrication of optical waveguides.

Keywords: BCB 4024-40, curing method, multiple refractiveindex, polymers.

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Authors: Crt Gerlec, Marjan Hericko

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The aim of every software product is to achieve an appropriate level of software quality. Developers and designers are trying to produce readable, reliable, maintainable, reusable and testable code. To help achieve these goals, several approaches have been utilized. In this paper, refactoring technique was used to evaluate software quality with a quality index. It is composed of different metric sets which describes various quality aspects.

Keywords: Refactoring, Software Metrics, Software Quality, Quality Index, Agile methodologies

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Authors: Phakhapong Thanitakul, Worawat Sa-ngiamvibool, Apinan Aurasopon, Saravuth Pothiya

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This paper presents an improved ant colony optimization (IACO) for solving the reliability redundancy allocation problem (RAP) in order to maximize system reliability. To improve the performance of ACO algorithm, two additional techniques, i.e. neighborhood search, and re-initialization process are presented. To show its efficiency and effectiveness, the proposed IACO is applied to solve three RAPs. Additionally, the results of the proposed IACO are compared with those of the conventional heuristic approaches i.e. genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and ant colony optimization (ACO). The experimental results show that the proposed IACO approach is comparatively capable of obtaining higher quality solution and faster computational time.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, Heuristic algorithm, Mixed-integer nonlinear programming, Redundancy allocation problem, Reliability optimization.

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Authors: Alyaa M. Younes, Nermine Harraz, Mohammad H. Elwany

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Lithium ion batteries are currently used for many applications including satellites, electric vehicles and mobile electronics. Their ability to store relatively large amount of energy in a limited space make them most appropriate for critical applications. Evaluation of the life of these batteries and their reliability becomes crucial to the systems they support. Reliability of Li-Ion batteries has been mainly considered based on its lifetime. However, another important factor that can be considered critical in many applications such as in electric vehicles is the cycle duration. The present work presents the results of an experimental investigation on the degradation behavior of a Laptop Li-ion battery (type TKV2V) and the effect of applied load on the battery cycle time. The reliability was evaluated using an accelerated life test. Least squares linear regression with median rank estimation was used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters needed for the reliability functions estimation. The probability density function, failure rate and reliability function under each of the applied loads were evaluated and compared. An inverse power model is introduced that can predict cycle time at any stress level given.

Keywords: Accelerated life test, inverse power law, lithium ion battery, reliability evaluation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Khalid M. Albarkoly, Kenneth S. Park

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The substantial development of the construction industry has forced the cement industry, its major support, to focus on achieving maximum productivity to meet the growing demand for this material. This means that the reliability of a cement production system needs to be at the highest level that can be achieved by good maintenance. This paper studies the extent to which the implementation of RCM is needed as a strategy for increasing the reliability of the production systems component can be increased, thus ensuring continuous productivity. In a case study of four Libyan cement factories, 80 employees were surveyed and 12 top and middle managers interviewed. It is evident that these factories usually breakdown more often than once per month which has led to a decline in productivity. In many times they cannot achieve the minimum level of production amount. This has resulted from the poor reliability of their production systems as a result of poor or insufficient maintenance. It has been found that most of the factories’ employees misunderstand maintenance and its importance. The main cause of this problem is the lack of qualified and trained staff, but in addition it has been found that most employees are not found to be motivated as a result of a lack of management support and interest. In response to these findings, it has been suggested that the RCM strategy should be implemented in the four factories. The results show the importance of the development of maintenance strategies through the implementation of RCM in these factories. The purpose of it would be to overcome the problems that could secure the reliability of the production systems. This study could be a useful source of information for academic researchers and the industrial organizations which are still experiencing problems in maintenance practices.

Keywords: Libyan cement industry, maintenance, production, reliability centered maintenance, reliability.

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Authors: A. Muthuramalingam, S. Himavathi

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Harmonic pollution and low power factor in power systems caused by power converters have been of great concern. To overcome these problems several converter topologies using advanced semiconductor devices and control schemes have been proposed. This investigation is to identify a low cost, small size, efficient and reliable ac to dc converter to meet the input performance index of UPS. The performance of single phase and three phase ac to dc converter along with various control techniques are studied and compared. The half bridge converter topology with linear current control is identified as most suitable. It is simple, energy efficient because of single switch power loss and transformer-less operation of UPS. The results are validated practically using a prototype built using IGBT and analog controller. The performance for both single and three-phase system is verified. Digital implementation of closed loop control achieves higher reliability. Its cost largely depends on chosen bit precision. The minimal bit precision for optimum converter performance is identified as 16-bit with fixed-point operation. From the investigation and practical implementation it is concluded that half bridge ac – dc converter along with digital linear controller meets the performance index of UPS for single and three phase systems.

Keywords: PFC, energy efficient, half bridge, ac-dc converter, boost topology, linear current control, digital bit precision.

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Authors: Nipun Manirajan, Heeralal Gargama, Sushil Guhe, Manoj Prabhakaran

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In railway industry, train sets are designed based on contractual requirements (mission profile), where reliability targets are measured in terms of mean distance between failures (MDBF). However, during the beginning of revenue services, trains do not achieve the designed mission profile distance (mileage) within the timeframe due to infrastructure constraints, scarcity of commuters or other operational challenges thereby not respecting the original design inputs. Since trains do not run sufficiently and do not achieve the designed mileage within the specified time, car builder has a risk of not achieving the contractual MDBF target. This paper proposes a constant failure rate based model to deal with the situations where mileage accumulation is not a part of the design mission profile. The model provides appropriate MDBF target to be demonstrated based on actual accumulated mileage. A case study of rolling stock running in the field is undertaken to analyze the failure data and MDBF target demonstration during low mileage accumulation. The results of case study prove that with the proposed method, reliability targets are achieved under low mileage accumulation.

Keywords: Mean distance between failures, mileage based reliability, reliability target normalization, rolling stock reliability.

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Authors: M. Bouguerra, I. Habi

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The continuity in the electric supply of the electric installations is becoming one of the main requirements of the electric supply network (generation, transmission, and distribution of the electric energy). The achievement of this requirement depends from one side on the structure of the electric network and on the other side on the avaibility of the reserve source provided to maintain the supply in case of failure of the principal one. The avaibility of supply does not only depends on the reliability parameters of the both sources (principal and reserve) but it also depends on the reliability of the circuit breaker which plays the role of interlocking the reserve source in case of failure of the principal one. In addition, the principal source being under operation, its control can be ideal and sure, however, for the reserve source being in stop, a preventive maintenances which proceed on time intervals (periodicity) and for well defined lengths of time are envisaged, so that this source will always available in case of the principal source failure. The choice of the periodicity of preventive maintenance of the source of reserve influences directly the reliability of the electric feeder system In this work and on the basis of the semi- markovian's processes, the influence of the time of interlocking the reserve source upon the reliability of an industrial electric network is studied and is given the optimal time of interlocking the reserve source in case of failure the principal one, also the influence of the periodicity of the preventive maintenance of the source of reserve is studied and is given the optimal periodicity.

Keywords: Semi-Markovians processes, reliability, optimization, industrial electric network.

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Authors: Yong-Jun Kim, Jae-Hyun Ro, Chang-Bin Ha, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Because current wireless communication requires high reliability in a limited bandwidth environment, this paper proposes the variable modulation scheme based on the codebook. The variable modulation scheme adjusts transmission power using the codebook in accordance with channel state. Also, if the codebook is composed of many bits, the reliability is more improved by the proposed scheme. The simulation results show that the performance of proposed scheme has better reliability than the the performance of conventional scheme.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM, variable modulation, codebook, channel state.

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Authors: Leo Galambos

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The majority of today's IR systems base the IR task on two main processes: indexing and searching. There exists a special group of dynamic IR systems where both processes (indexing and searching) happen simultaneously; such a system discards obsolete information, simultaneously dealing with the insertion of new in¬formation, while still answering user queries. In these dynamic, time critical text document databases, it is often important to modify index structures quickly, as documents arrive. This paper presents a method for dynamization which may be used for this task. Experimental results show that the dynamization process is possible and that it guarantees the response time for the query operation and index actualization.

Keywords: Search engine, inverted file, index management.

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Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: Financial bubbles, detection, preferred stocks, pairs trading, future return, forecast.

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Authors: Takeru YOKOI, Hidekazu YANAGIMOTO, Sigeru OMATU

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We have proposed an information filtering system using index word selection from a document set based on the topics included in a set of documents. This method narrows down the particularly characteristic words in a document set and the topics are obtained by Sparse Non-negative Matrix Factorization. In information filtering, a document is often represented with the vector in which the elements correspond to the weight of the index words, and the dimension of the vector becomes larger as the number of documents is increased. Therefore, it is possible that useless words as index words for the information filtering are included. In order to address the problem, the dimension needs to be reduced. Our proposal reduces the dimension by selecting index words based on the topics included in a document set. We have applied the Sparse Non-negative Matrix Factorization to the document set to obtain these topics. The filtering is carried out based on a centroid of the learning document set. The centroid is regarded as the user-s interest. In addition, the centroid is represented with a document vector whose elements consist of the weight of the selected index words. Using the English test collection MEDLINE, thus, we confirm the effectiveness of our proposal. Hence, our proposed selection can confirm the improvement of the recommendation accuracy from the other previous methods when selecting the appropriate number of index words. In addition, we discussed the selected index words by our proposal and we found our proposal was able to select the index words covered some minor topics included in the document set.

Keywords: Information Filtering, Sparse NMF, Index wordSelection, User Profile, Chi-squared Measure

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Authors: Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Joshua Phelan, Mehdi Shahparvari

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With a large percentage of countries’ total infrastructure expenditure attributed to water network maintenance, it is essential to optimise maintenance strategies to rehabilitate or replace underground pipes before failure occurs. The aim of this paper is to provide water utility managers with a maintenance management approach for underground water pipes, subject to external loading and material corrosion, to give the lowest life cycle cost over a predetermined time period. This reliability-based maintenance management methodology details the optimal years for intervention, the ideal number of maintenance activities to perform before replacement and specifies feasible renewal options and intervention prioritisation to minimise the life cycle cost. The study was then extended to include feasible renewal methods by determining the structural condition index and potential for soil loss, then obtaining the failure impact rating to assist in prioritising pipe replacement. A case study on optimisation of maintenance plans for the Melbourne water pipe network is considered in this paper to evaluate the practicality of the proposed methodology. The results confirm that the suggested methodology can provide water utility managers with a reliable systematic approach to determining optimum maintenance plans for pipe networks.

Keywords: Water pipe networks, maintenance management, reliability analysis, optimum maintenance plan.

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Authors: Mohammad Adnan Rajib, Md.Rubayet Mortuza, Saranah Selmi, Asif Khan Ankur, Md. Mujibur Rahman

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Heat Index describes the combined effect of temperature and humidity on human body. This combined effect is causing a serious threat to the health of people because of the changing climate. With climate change, climate variability and thus the occurrence of heat waves is likely to increase. Evidence is emerging from the analysis of long-term climate records of an increase in the frequency and duration of extreme temperature events in all over Bangladesh particularly during summer. Summer season has prolonged while winters have become short in Bangladesh. Summers have become hotter and thus affecting the lives of the people engaged in outdoor activities during scorching sun hours. In 2003 around 62 people died due to heat wave across the country. In this paper Bangladesh is divided in four regions and heat index has been calculated from 1960 to 2010 in these regions of the country. The aim of this paper is to identify the spots most vulnerable to heat strokes and heat waves due to high heat index. The results show upward trend of heat index in almost all the regions of Bangladesh. The highest increase in heat index value has been observed in areas of South-west region and North-west Region. The highest change in average heat index has been found in Jessore by almost 5.50C.

Keywords: Anomaly, Heat index, Relative humidity, Temperature

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Authors: E. A. Azrulhisham, Y. M. Asri, A. W. Dzuraidah, A. H. Hairul Fahmi

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The aim of this paper is to introduce a parametric distribution model in fatigue life reliability analysis dealing with variation in material properties. Service loads in terms of responsetime history signal of Belgian pave were replicated on a multi-axial spindle coupled road simulator and stress-life method was used to estimate the fatigue life of automotive stub axle. A PSN curve was obtained by monotonic tension test and two-parameter Weibull distribution function was used to acquire the mean life of the component. A Pearson system was developed to evaluate the fatigue life reliability by considering stress range intercept and slope of the PSN curve as random variables. Considering normal distribution of fatigue strength, it is found that the fatigue life of the stub axle to have the highest reliability between 10000 – 15000 cycles. Taking into account the variation of material properties associated with the size effect, machining and manufacturing conditions, the method described in this study can be effectively applied in determination of probability of failure of mass-produced parts.

Keywords: Stub axle, Fatigue life reliability, Stress-life, PSN curve, Weibull distribution, Pearson system

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Authors: Perumal Nallagownden, Ravindra N. Mukerjee, Syafrudin Masri

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In a competitive energy market, system reliability should be maintained at all times. Power system operation being of online in nature, the energy balance requirements must be satisfied to ensure reliable operation the system. To achieve this, information regarding the expected status of the system, the scheduled transactions and the relevant inputs necessary to make either a transaction contract or a transmission contract operational, have to be made available in real time. The real time procedure proposed, facilitates this. This paper proposes a quadratic curve learning procedure, which enables a generator-s contribution to the retailer demand, power loss of transaction in a line at the retail end and its associated losses for an oncoming operating scenario to be predicted. Matlab program was used to test in on a 24-bus IEE Reliability Test System, and the results are found to be acceptable.

Keywords: Deregulation, learning coefficients, reliability, prediction, competitive energy market.

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Authors: Yingjie Zhang, Ming Li, Ying Zhang, Jing Zhang, Zuolei Hu

Abstract:

In the actual start-up process of DC motors, the DC drive system often faces a conflict between energy consumption and acceleration performance. To resolve the conflict, this paper proposes a comprehensive performance index that energy consumption index is added on the basis of classical control performance index in the DC motor starting process. Taking the comprehensive performance index as the cost function, particle swarm optimization algorithm is designed to optimize the comprehensive performance. Then it conducts simulations on the optimization of the comprehensive performance of the DC motor on condition that the weight coefficient of the energy consumption index should be properly designed. The simulation results show that as the weight of energy consumption increased, the energy efficiency was significantly improved at the expense of a slight sacrifice of fastness indicators with the comprehensive performance index method. The energy efficiency was increased from 63.18% to 68.48% and the response time reduced from 0.2875s to 0.1736s simultaneously compared with traditional proportion integrals differential controller in energy saving.

Keywords: Comprehensive performance index, energy consumption, acceleration performance, particle swarm optimal control.

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