Search results for: predictive apriori

Authors: R.V Pawar, P.P.Kajave, S.N.Mali

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The speech signal conveys information about the identity of the speaker. The area of speaker identification is concerned with extracting the identity of the person speaking the utterance. As speech interaction with computers becomes more pervasive in activities such as the telephone, financial transactions and information retrieval from speech databases, the utility of automatically identifying a speaker is based solely on vocal characteristic. This paper emphasizes on text dependent speaker identification, which deals with detecting a particular speaker from a known population. The system prompts the user to provide speech utterance. System identifies the user by comparing the codebook of speech utterance with those of the stored in the database and lists, which contain the most likely speakers, could have given that speech utterance. The speech signal is recorded for N speakers further the features are extracted. Feature extraction is done by means of LPC coefficients, calculating AMDF, and DFT. The neural network is trained by applying these features as input parameters. The features are stored in templates for further comparison. The features for the speaker who has to be identified are extracted and compared with the stored templates using Back Propogation Algorithm. Here, the trained network corresponds to the output; the input is the extracted features of the speaker to be identified. The network does the weight adjustment and the best match is found to identify the speaker. The number of epochs required to get the target decides the network performance.

Keywords: Average Mean Distance function, Backpropogation, Linear Predictive Coding, MultilayeredPerceptron,

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Authors: H. B. Mehta, Vipul M. Patel, Jyotirmay Banerjee

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The present paper discusses the prediction of gas-liquid two-phase frictional pressure drop in a 2.12 mm horizontal circular minichannel using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The experimental results are obtained with air as gas phase and water as liquid phase. The superficial gas velocity is kept in the range of 0.0236 m/s to 0.4722 m/s while the values of 0.0944 m/s, 0.1416 m/s and 0.1889 m/s are considered for superficial liquid velocity. The experimental results are predicted using different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Networks used for prediction are radial basis, generalised regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation, feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent, and Elman back propagation. Transfer functions used for networks are Linear (PURELIN), Logistic sigmoid (LOGSIG), tangent sigmoid (TANSIG) and Gaussian RBF. Combination of networks and transfer functions give different possible neural network models. These models are compared for Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD) and Mean Relative Deviation (MRD) to identify the best predictive model of ANN.

Keywords: Minichannel, Two-Phase Flow, Frictional Pressure Drop, ANN, MARD, MRD.

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Authors: Dimitrios E. Kontaxis, George Litainas, Dimitrios P. Ptochos, Vaggelis P. Ptochos, Sotirios P. Ptochos, Dimitrios Beletsis, Konstantinos Kritikakis, Milan Sunaric

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Real-time monitoring of the supply chain conditions and procedures is a critical element for the optimal coordination and safety of the deliveries, as well as for the minimization of the delivery time and cost. Real time monitoring requires IoT data streams, which are related to the conditions of the products and the means of transport (e.g., location, temperature/humidity conditions, kinematic state, ambient light conditions, etc.). These streams are generated by battery-based IoT tracking devices, equipped with appropriate sensors, and are transmitted to a cloud-based back-end system. Proper handling and processing of the IoT data streams, using predictive and artificial intelligence algorithms, can provide significant and useful results, which can be exploited by the supply chain stakeholders in order to enhance their financial benefits, as well as the efficiency, security, transparency, coordination and sustainability of the supply chain procedures. The technology, the features and the characteristics of a complete, proprietary system, including hardware, firmware and software tools - developed in the context of a co-funded R&D program - are addressed and presented in this paper. 

Keywords: IoT embedded electronics, real-time monitoring, tracking device, sensor platform

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Authors: Kamaldeep Kaur, Arvinder Kaur, Ruchika Malhotra

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The aim of this paper is to rank the impact of Object Oriented(OO) metrics in fault prediction modeling using Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs). Past studies on empirical validation of object oriented metrics as fault predictors using ANNs have focused on the predictive quality of neural networks versus standard statistical techniques. In this empirical study we turn our attention to the capability of ANNs in ranking the impact of these explanatory metrics on fault proneness. In ANNs data analysis approach, there is no clear method of ranking the impact of individual metrics. Five ANN based techniques are studied which rank object oriented metrics in predicting fault proneness of classes. These techniques are i) overall connection weights method ii) Garson-s method iii) The partial derivatives methods iv) The Input Perturb method v) the classical stepwise methods. We develop and evaluate different prediction models based on the ranking of the metrics by the individual techniques. The models based on overall connection weights and partial derivatives methods have been found to be most accurate.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS), Backpropagation, Fault Prediction Modeling.

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Authors: Liping Jing, Michael K. Ng, Tieyong Zeng

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Microarray data profiles gene expression on a whole genome scale, therefore, it provides a good way to study associations between gene expression and occurrence or progression of cancer. More and more researchers realized that microarray data is helpful to predict cancer sample. However, the high dimension of gene expressions is much larger than the sample size, which makes this task very difficult. Therefore, how to identify the significant genes causing cancer becomes emergency and also a hot and hard research topic. Many feature selection algorithms have been proposed in the past focusing on improving cancer predictive accuracy at the expense of ignoring the correlations between the features. In this work, a novel framework (named by SGS) is presented for stable gene selection and efficient cancer prediction . The proposed framework first performs clustering algorithm to find the gene groups where genes in each group have higher correlation coefficient, and then selects the significant genes in each group with Bayesian Lasso and important gene groups with group Lasso, and finally builds prediction model based on the shrinkage gene space with efficient classification algorithm (such as, SVM, 1NN, Regression and etc.). Experiment results on real world data show that the proposed framework often outperforms the existing feature selection and prediction methods, say SAM, IG and Lasso-type prediction model.

Keywords: Gene Selection, Cancer Prediction, Lasso, Clustering, Classification.

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Authors: M. Farahnakian, M.R. Razfar, S. Elhami-Joosheghan

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This paper presents an approach for the determination of the optimal cutting parameters (spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut and engagement) leading to minimum surface roughness in face milling of high silicon stainless steel by coupling neural network (NN) and Electromagnetism-like Algorithm (EM). In this regard, the advantages of statistical experimental design technique, experimental measurements, artificial neural network, and Electromagnetism-like optimization method are exploited in an integrated manner. To this end, numerous experiments on this stainless steel were conducted to obtain surface roughness values. A predictive model for surface roughness is created by using a back propogation neural network, then the optimization problem was solved by using EM optimization. Additional experiments were performed to validate optimum surface roughness value predicted by EM algorithm. It is clearly seen that a good agreement is observed between the predicted values by EM coupled with feed forward neural network and experimental measurements. The obtained results show that the EM algorithm coupled with back propogation neural network is an efficient and accurate method in approaching the global minimum of surface roughness in face milling.

Keywords: cutting parameters, face milling, surface roughness, artificial neural network, Electromagnetism-like algorithm,

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Authors: Rachid Zentar, Mokrane Bala, Pascal Boustingorry

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The prediction of the rheological behavior of concrete is at the center of current concerns of the concrete industry for different reasons. The shortage of good quality standard materials combined with variable properties of available materials imposes to improve existing models to take into account these variations at the design stage of concrete. The main reasons for improving the predictive models are, of course, saving time and cost at the design stage as well as to optimize concrete performances. In this study, we will highlight the different properties of the granular mixtures that affect the rheological properties of concrete. Our objective is to identify the intrinsic parameters of the aggregates which make it possible to predict the yield stress of concrete. The work was done using two typologies of grains: crushed and rolled aggregates. The experimental results have shown that the rheology of concrete is improved by increasing the packing density of the granular mixture using rolled aggregates. The experimental program realized allowed to model the yield stress of concrete by a modified model of Chateau et al. through a dimensionless parameter following Krieger-Dougherty law. The modelling confirms that the yield stress of concrete depends not only on the properties of cement paste but also on the packing density of the granular skeleton and the shape of grains.

Keywords: Crushed aggregates, intrinsic viscosity, packing density, rolled aggregates, slump, yield stress of concrete.

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Authors: Farhan Ismaeel Dakheel, Raoof Smko, K. Negrat, Abdelsalam Almarimi

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In this paper we used data mining techniques to identify outlier patients who are using large amount of drugs over a long period of time. Any healthcare or health insurance system should deal with the quantities of drugs utilized by chronic diseases patients. In Kingdom of Bahrain, about 20% of health budget is spent on medications. For the managers of healthcare systems, there is no enough information about the ways of drug utilization by chronic diseases patients, is there any misuse or is there outliers patients. In this work, which has been done in cooperation with information department in the Bahrain Defence Force hospital; we select the data for Cardiac patients in the period starting from 1/1/2008 to December 31/12/2008 to be the data for the model in this paper. We used three techniques for finding the drug utilization for cardiac patients. First we applied a clustering technique, followed by measuring of clustering validity, and finally we applied a decision tree as classification algorithm. The clustering results is divided into three clusters according to the drug utilization, for 1603 patients, who received 15,806 prescriptions during this period can be partitioned into three groups, where 23 patients (2.59%) who received 1316 prescriptions (8.32%) are classified to be outliers. The classification algorithm shows that the use of average drug utilization and the age, and the gender of the patient can be considered to be the main predictive factors in the induced model.

Keywords: Data Mining, Clustering, Classification, Drug Utilization..

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Authors: Haifeng Wang, Haili Zhang

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Most movie recommendation systems have been developed for customers to find items of interest. This work introduces a predictive model usable by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) who are in need of a data-based and analytical approach to stock proper movies for local audiences and retain more customers. We used classification models to extract features from thousands of customers’ demographic, behavioral and social information to predict their movie genre preference. In the implementation, a Gaussian kernel support vector machine (SVM) classification model and a logistic regression model were established to extract features from sample data and their test error-in-sample were compared. Comparison of error-out-sample was also made under different Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimensions in the machine learning algorithm to find and prevent overfitting. Gaussian kernel SVM prediction model can correctly predict movie genre preferences in 85% of positive cases. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 93% with a smaller VC dimension and less overfitting. These findings advance our understanding of how to use machine learning approach to predict customers’ preferences with a small data set and design prediction tools for these enterprises.

Keywords: Computational social science, movie preference, machine learning, SVM.

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Authors: Shobha Sharma, Amita Dev

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This research paper presents highly optimized barrel shifter at 22nm Hi K metal gate strained Si technology node. This barrel shifter is having a unique combination of static and dynamic body bias which gives lowest power delay product. This power delay product is compared with the same circuit at same technology node with static forward biasing at ‘supply/2’ and also with normal reverse substrate biasing and still found to be the lowest. The power delay product of this barrel sifter is .39362X10-17J and is lowered by approximately 78% to reference proposed barrel shifter at 32nm bulk CMOS technology. Power delay product of barrel shifter at 22nm Hi K Metal gate technology with normal reverse substrate bias is 2.97186933X10-17J and can be compared with this design’s PDP of .39362X10-17J. This design uses both static and dynamic substrate biasing and also has approximately 96% lower power delay product compared to only forward body biased at half of supply voltage. The NMOS model used are predictive technology models of Arizona state university and the simulations to be carried out using HSPICE simulator.

Keywords: Dynamic body biasing, highly optimized barrel shifter, PDP, Static body biasing.

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to prevent deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network. 

Keywords: Accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, K-mean, road safety.

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Authors: Shang-En Yu

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Human society, there are many uncertainties, such as economic growth rate forecast of the financial crisis, many scholars have, since the the Song Chissom two scholars in 1993 the concept of the so-called fuzzy time series (Fuzzy Time Series)different mode to deal with these problems, a previous study, however, usually does not consider the relevant variables selected and fuzzy process based solely on subjective opinions the fuzzy semantic discrete, so can not objectively reflect the characteristics of the data set, in addition to carrying outforecasts are often fuzzy rules as equally important, failed to consider the importance of each fuzzy rule. For these reasons, the variable selection (Factor Selection) through self-organizing map (Self-Organizing Map, SOM) and proposed high-end weighted multivariate fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy neural network (Fuzzy-BPN), and using the the sequential weighted average operator (Ordered Weighted Averaging operator, OWA) weighted prediction. Therefore, in order to verify the proposed method, the Taiwan stock exchange (Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation) Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, TAIEX) as experimental forecast target, in order to filter the appropriate variables in the experiment Finally, included in other studies in recent years mode in conjunction with this study, the results showed that the predictive ability of this study further improve.

Keywords: Heterogeneity, residential mortgage loans, foreclosure.

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Authors: Panagiotis Karadimos, Leonidas Anthopoulos

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Predicting the actual cost and duration in construction projects concern a continuous and existing problem for the construction sector. This paper addresses this problem with modern methods and data available from past public construction projects. 39 bridge projects, constructed in Greece, with a similar type of available data were examined. Considering each project’s attributes with the actual cost and the actual duration, correlation analysis is performed and the most appropriate predictive project variables are defined. Additionally, the most efficient subgroup of variables is selected with the use of the WEKA application, through its attribute selection function. The selected variables are used as input neurons for neural network models through correlation analysis. For constructing neural network models, the application FANN Tool is used. The optimum neural network model, for predicting the actual cost, produced a mean squared error with a value of 3.84886e-05 and it was based on the budgeted cost and the quantity of deck concrete. The optimum neural network model, for predicting the actual duration, produced a mean squared error with a value of 5.89463e-05 and it also was based on the budgeted cost and the amount of deck concrete.

Keywords: Actual cost and duration, attribute selection, bridge projects, neural networks, predicting models, FANN TOOL, WEKA.

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Salem Alsanusi, Loubna Bentaher

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Response Surface Methods (RSM) provide statistically validated predictive models that can then be manipulated for finding optimal process configurations. Variation transmitted to responses from poorly controlled process factors can be accounted for by the mathematical technique of propagation of error (POE), which facilitates ‘finding the flats’ on the surfaces generated by RSM. The dual response approach to RSM captures the standard deviation of the output as well as the average. It accounts for unknown sources of variation. Dual response plus propagation of error (POE) provides a more useful model of overall response variation. In our case, we implemented this technique in predicting compressive strength of concrete of 28 days in age. Since 28 days is quite time consuming, while it is important to ensure the quality control process. This paper investigates the potential of using design of experiments (DOE-RSM) to predict the compressive strength of concrete at 28th day. Data used for this study was carried out from experiment schemes at university of Benghazi, civil engineering department. A total of 114 sets of data were implemented. ACI mix design method was utilized for the mix design. No admixtures were used, only the main concrete mix constituents such as cement, coarseaggregate, fine aggregate and water were utilized in all mixes. Different mix proportions of the ingredients and different water cement ratio were used. The proposed mathematical models are capable of predicting the required concrete compressive strength of concrete from early ages.

Keywords: Mix proportioning, response surface methodology, compressive strength, optimal design.

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Authors: K.Alkhulaifi, M. Hamdalla

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Most of ignition delay correlations studies have been developed in a constant volume bombs which cannot capture the dynamic variation in pressure and temperature during the ignition delay as in real engines. Watson, Assanis et. al. and Hardenberg and Hase correlations have been developed based on experimental data of diesel engines. However, they showed limited predictive ability of ignition delay when compared to experimental results. The objective of the study was to investigate the dependency of ignition delay time on engine brake power. An experimental investigation of the effect of automotive diesel and water diesel emulsion fuels on ignition delay under steady state conditions of a direct injection diesel engine was conducted. A four cylinder, direct injection naturally aspirated diesel engine was used in this experiment over a wide range of engine speeds and two engine loads. The ignition delay experimental data were compared with predictions of Assanis et. al. and Watson ignition delay correlations. The results of the experimental investigation were then used to develop a new ignition delay correlation. The newly developed ignition delay correlation has shown a better agreement with the experimental data than Assanis et. al. and Watson when using automotive diesel and water diesel emulsion fuels especially at low to medium engine speeds at both loads. In addition, the second derivative of cylinder pressure which is the most widely used method in determining the start of combustion was investigated.

Keywords: gnition delay correlation, water diesel emulsion, direct injection diesel engine

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Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

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The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: Bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow.

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Authors: S. M. Seyedhosseini, A. Makui, M. Ghadami

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Globalization and therefore increasing tight competition among companies, have resulted to increase the importance of making well-timed decision. Devising and employing effective strategies, that are flexible and adaptive to changing market, stand a greater chance of being effective in the long-term. In other side, a clear focus on managing the entire product lifecycle has emerged as critical areas for investment. Therefore, applying wellorganized tools to employ past experience in new case, helps to make proper and managerial decisions. Case based reasoning (CBR) is based on a means of solving a new problem by using or adapting solutions to old problems. In this paper, an adapted CBR model with k-nearest neighbor (K-NN) is employed to provide suggestions for better decision making which are adopted for a given product in the middle of life phase. The set of solutions are weighted by CBR in the principle of group decision making. Wrapper approach of genetic algorithm is employed to generate optimal feature subsets. The dataset of the department store, including various products which are collected among two years, have been used. K-fold approach is used to evaluate the classification accuracy rate. Empirical results are compared with classical case based reasoning algorithm which has no special process for feature selection, CBR-PCA algorithm based on filter approach feature selection, and Artificial Neural Network. The results indicate that the predictive performance of the model, compare with two CBR algorithms, in specific case is more effective.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, Genetic algorithm, Groupdecision making, Product management.

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Authors: S. Aberkane, N. Djabali, S. Fafi, A. Baghezza

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Chronic illnesses affect many Algerians. It is possible to investigate the impact of illness representations and coping on quality of life and whether illness representations are indirectly associated with quality of life through their influence on coping. This study aims at investigating the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies and quality of life with chronic illness. Illness perceptions are indirectly associated with the quality of life through their influence on coping mediation. A sample of 316 participants with chronic illness living in the region of Batna, Algeria, has been adopted in this study. A correlation statistical analysis is used to determine the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies, and quality of life. Multiple regression analysis was employed to highlight the predictive ability of the dimensions of illness perception and coping strategies on the dependent variables of quality of life, where mediation analysis is considered in the exploration of the indirect effect significance of the mediator. This study provides insights about the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies and quality of life in the considered sample (r = 0.39, p < 0.01). Therefore, it proves that there is an effect of illness identity perception, external and medical attributions related to emotional role, physical functioning, and mental health perceived, and these were fully mediated by the asking for assistance (c’= 0.04, p < 0.05), the guarding (c’= 0.00, p < 0.05), and the task persistence strategy (c’= 0.05, p < 0.05). The findings imply partial support for the common-sense model of illness representations in a chronic illness population. Directions for future research are highlighted, as well as implications for psychotherapeutic interventions which target unhelpful beliefs and maladaptive coping strategies (e.g., cognitive behavioral therapy).

Keywords: Chronic illness, coping, illness perception, quality of life, self-regulation model.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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Authors: Elena Krelja Kurelović, Jasminka Tomljanović, Vlatka Davidović

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The development of web technologies and mobile devices makes creating, accessing, using and sharing information or communicating with each other simpler every day. However, while the amount of information constantly increasing it is becoming harder to effectively organize and find quality information despite the availability of web search engines, filtering and indexing tools. Although digital technologies have overall positive impact on students’ lives, frequent use of these technologies and digital media enriched with dynamic hypertext and hypermedia content, as well as multitasking, distractions caused by notifications, calls or messages; can decrease the attention span, make thinking, memorizing and learning more difficult, which can lead to stress and mental exhaustion. This is referred to as “information overload”, “information glut” or “information anxiety”. Objective of this study is to determine whether students show signs of information overload and to identify the possible predictors. Research was conducted using a questionnaire developed for the purpose of this study. The results show that students frequently use technology (computers, gadgets and digital media), while they show moderate level of information literacy. They have sometimes experienced symptoms of information overload. According to the statistical analysis, higher frequency of technology use and lower level of information literacy are correlated with larger information overload. The multiple regression analysis has confirmed that the combination of these two independent variables has statistically significant predictive capacity for information overload. Therefore, the information science teachers should pay attention to improving the level of students’ information literacy and educate them about the risks of excessive technology use.

Keywords: Information overload, technology use, digital media, information literacy, students.

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Authors: Abdolghani Ebrahimi, Diego Klabjan, Chenxi Ge, Daniela Ladner, Parker Stride

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In this work, we use machine learning and data analysis techniques to predict the one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients. Data from 2,322 patients with liver cirrhosis are collected at a single medical center. Different machine learning models are applied to predict one-year mortality. A comprehensive feature space including demographic information, comorbidity, clinical procedure and laboratory tests is being analyzed. A temporal pattern mining technic called Frequent Subgraph Mining (FSM) is being used. Model for End-stage liver disease (MELD) prediction of mortality is used as a comparator. All of our models statistically significantly outperform the MELD-score model and show an average 10% improvement of the area under the curve (AUC). The FSM technic itself does not improve the model significantly, but FSM, together with a machine learning technique called an ensemble, further improves the model performance. With the abundance of data available in healthcare through electronic health records (EHR), existing predictive models can be refined to identify and treat patients at risk for higher mortality. However, due to the sparsity of the temporal information needed by FSM, the FSM model does not yield significant improvements. Our work applies modern machine learning algorithms and data analysis methods on predicting one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients and builds a model that predicts one-year mortality significantly more accurate than the MELD score. We have also tested the potential of FSM and provided a new perspective of the importance of clinical features.

Keywords: machine learning, liver cirrhosis, subgraph mining, supervised learning

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Authors: Shahad Nagoor, Lucy Hederman, Kevin Koidl, Annalina Caputo

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Doctors’ notes reflect their impressions, attitudes, clinical sense, and opinions about patients’ conditions and progress, and other information that is essential for doctors’ daily clinical decisions. Despite their value, clinical notes are insufficiently researched within the language processing community. Automatically extracting information from unstructured text data is known to be a difficult task as opposed to dealing with structured information such as physiological vital signs, images and laboratory results. The aim of this research is to investigate how Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and machine learning techniques applied to clinician notes can assist in doctors’ decision making in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. The hypothesis is that clinical outcomes like survival or mortality can be useful to influence the judgement of clinical sentiment in ICU clinical notes. This paper presents two contributions: first, we introduce COVID_ICU_BERT, a fine-tuned version of a clinical transformer model that can reliably predict clinical sentiment for notes of COVID patients in ICU. We train the model on clinical notes for COVID-19 patients, ones not previously seen by Bio_ClinicalBERT or Bio_Discharge_Summary_BERT. The model which was based on Bio_ClinicalBERT achieves higher predictive accuracy than the one based on Bio_Discharge_Summary_BERT (Acc 93.33%, AUC 0.98, and Precision 0.96). Second, we perform data augmentation using clinical contextual word embedding that is based on a pre-trained clinical model to balance the samples in each class in the data (survived vs. deceased patients). Data augmentation improves the accuracy of prediction slightly (Acc 96.67%, AUC 0.98, and Precision 0.92).

Keywords: BERT fine-tuning, clinical sentiment, COVID-19, data augmentation.

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

Abstract:

A crucial part of maintaining a customer-oriented business in the telecommunications industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years, which has made it more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market. For those who are looking to turn over their service providers, understanding their needs is especially important. Predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining customers in the telecommunications industry. Machine learning can be used to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Churn, Random Forest, Decision Tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score.

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Authors: Keyvan Molanorouzi, Selina Khoo, Tony Morris

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In recent years, there has been a decline in physical activity among adults. Motivation has been shown to be a crucial factor in maintaining physical activity. The purpose of this study was to whether PA motives measured by the Physical Activity and Leisure Motivation Scale PALMS predicted the actual amount of PA at a later time to provide evidence for the construct validity of the PALMS. A quantitative, cross-sectional descriptive research design was employed. The Demographic Form, PALMS, and International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short form (IPAQ-S) questionnaires were used to assess motives and amount for physical activity in adults on two occasions. A sample of 489 male undergraduate students aged 18 to 25 years (mean ±SD; 22.30±8.13 years) took part in the study. Participants were divided into three types of activities, namely exercise, racquet sport, and team sports and female participants only took part in one type of activity, namely team sports. After 14 weeks, all 489 undergraduate students who had filled in the initial questionnaire (Occasion 1) received the questionnaire via email (Occasion 2). Of the 489 students, 378 males emailed back the completed questionnaire. The results showed that not only were pertinent sub-scales of PALMS positively related to amount of physical activity, but separate regression analyses showed the positive predictive effect of PALMS motives for amount of physical activity for each type of physical activity among participants. This study supported the construct validity of the PALMS by showing that the motives measured by PALMS did predict amount of PA. This information can be obtained to match people with specific sport or activity which in turn could potentially promote longer adherence to the specific activity.

Keywords: Physical activity, motivation, the level of physical activity, types of physical activities.

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Authors: S. Da Costa, D. Páez, F. Sánchez

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We examine the causal role of positive affect on creativity, the association of creativity or innovation in the ideation phase with functional emotional regulation, successful adjustment to stress and dispositional emotional creativity, as well as the predictive role of creativity for positive emotions and social adjustment. The study examines the effects of modification of positive affect on creativity. Participants write three poems, narrate an infatuation episode, answer a scale of personal growth after this episode and perform a creativity task, answer a flow scale after creativity task and fill a dispositional emotional creativity scale. High and low positive effect was induced by asking subjects to write three poems about high and low positive connotation stimuli. In a neutral condition, tasks were performed without previous affect induction. Subjects on the condition of high positive affect report more positive and less negative emotions, more personal growth (effect size r = .24) and their last poem was rated as more original by judges (effect size r = .33). Mediational analysis showed that positive emotions explain the influence of the manipulation on personal growth - positive affect correlates r = .33 to personal growth. The emotional creativity scale correlated to creativity scores of the creative task (r = .14), to the creativity of the narration of the infatuation episode (r = .21). Emotional creativity was also associated, during performing the creativity task, with flow (r = .27) and with affect balance (r = .26). The mediational analysis showed that emotional creativity predicts flow through positive affect. Results suggest that innovation in the phase of ideation is associated with a positive affect balance and satisfactory performance, as well as dispositional emotional creativity is adaptive.

Keywords: Affectivity, creativity, induction, innovation, psychological factors.

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Authors: Muhamad Sani Buang, Shahrul Azam Abdullah, Juri Saedon

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There is not much effective guideline on development of design parameters selection on spring back for advanced high strength steel sheet metal in U-channel process during cold forming process. This paper presents the development of predictive model for spring back in U-channel process on advanced high strength steel sheet employing Response Surface Methodology (RSM). The experimental was performed on dual phase steel sheet, DP590 in Uchannel forming process while design of experiment (DoE) approach was used to investigates the effects of four factors namely blank holder force (BHF), clearance (C) and punch travel (Tp) and rolling direction (R) were used as input parameters using two level values by applying Full Factorial design (24 ). From a statistical analysis of variant (ANOVA), result showed that blank holder force (BHF), clearance (C) and punch travel (Tp) displayed significant effect on spring back of flange angle (β2 ) and wall opening angle (β1 ), while rolling direction (R) factor is insignificant. The significant parameters are optimized in order to reduce the spring back behavior using Central Composite Design (CCD) in RSM and the optimum parameters were determined. A regression model for spring back was developed. The effect of individual parameters and their response was also evaluated. The results obtained from optimum model are in agreement with the experimental values.  

Keywords: Advance high strength steel, U-channel process, Springback, Design of Experiment, Optimization, Response Surface Methodology (RSM).

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Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: Machine learning, stock market trading, logistic principal component analysis, automated stock investment system.

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Authors: Bryce Benson, Sooin Lee, Ashwin Belle

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Unrecognized or delayed identification of patient deterioration is a key cause of in-hospitals adverse events. Clinicians rely on vital signs monitoring to recognize patient deterioration. However, due to ever increasing nursing workloads and the manual effort required, vital signs tend to be measured and recorded intermittently, and inconsistently causing large gaps during patient monitoring. Additionally, during deterioration, the body’s autonomic nervous system activates compensatory mechanisms causing the vital signs to be lagging indicators of underlying hemodynamic decline. This study analyzes the predictive efficacy of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability (AHI) system, an automated tool that was designed to help clinicians in early identification of deteriorating patients. The lead time analysis in this retrospective observational study assesses how far in advance AHI predicted deterioration prior to the start of an episode of hemodynamic instability (HI) becoming evident through vital signs? Results indicate that of the 362 episodes of HI in this study, 308 episodes (85%) were correctly predicted by the AHI system with a median lead time of 57 minutes and an average of 4 hours (240.5 minutes). Of the 54 episodes not predicted, AHI detected 45 of them while the episode of HI was ongoing. Of the 9 undetected, 5 were not detected by AHI due to either missing or noisy input ECG data during the episode of HI. In total, AHI was able to either predict or detect 98.9% of all episodes of HI in this study. These results suggest that AHI could provide an additional ‘pair of eyes’ on patients, continuously filling the monitoring gaps and consequently giving the patient care team the ability to be far more proactive in patient monitoring and adverse event management.

Keywords: Clinical deterioration prediction, decision support system, early warning system, hemodynamic status, physiologic monitoring.

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